November 28, 2022
* The dollar starts the week drifting…
* Sweden hikes rates!
Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, did your Thanksgiving celebration turn out to be just wonderful? Mine did.. The food was scrumptious, the company was grand, and the house was full of conversation. You know me, and how much I treasure Traditions… And Thanksgiving dinner is a tradition that I hope the cancel culture never ruins… I still use my Bobby Flay method of slicing the turkeys, and I really enjoy doing that… My beloved Mizzou Tigers won their final game on Friday, VS rival Arkansas, and left them 6-6 for the year… without bonehead plays, and bad referring, the Tigers could have been 9-3… I guess that progress for the program, but still a long way from where I expect them to be! Vince Guaraldi and his trio greet me this morning with their version of the song: Christmas Time Is Here…
Well, I have to say that late last week, while traders were off filling their stomachs with stuffing, the dollar didn’t fare well overseas on Thursday, and in normal trading on Friday. The BBDXY lost 7 index points on Thursday and Friday, and once again it appears that the sentiment toward the dollar is about to change… We were here last week at this time, and it appeared to me that Plunge Protection Team and the Treasure chest of funds, were able to prolong the dollar’s demise.. But here we are again at the same fork in the road, what will it be this time, Boys?
Gold & Silver were both up on Wednesday and Thursday, and then gave back those gains on Friday. Gold ended the week down $6.30, at, $1,756.30. Silver ended the week down 7-cents, at $21.54… I was cleaning off my writing desk of old stuff, and on it were a lot of the sheets I use to record prices on, and I noticed that we finished 2021 with Gold above $1,800… So, Gold has some work to do if it’s going to show a gain for this year. The BBDXY is up over 100 index points this year… And while a couple of weeks ago, it was much larger than 100 points, I have this feeling that by the time year end gets here, we will be looking at the dollar giving back all or most of that gain…
The price of Oil continues to get taken to the woodshed on a daily basis, and ended the week trading with a $77 handle…And the 10-year? OMG, the 10-year’s yield has fallen to 3.69% at week’s end… I still don’t know who on earth is buying this bond, but, whoever it is, I feel for them right now, for like I’ve said over and over again, this is not the time to buy long bonds, right now…
In The overnight markets last night… Sweden’s Central Bank The Riksbank, hiked rates 75 Basis point to reach an internal rate of 2.5%… Swedish inflation is at 7.9%, so they too are fighting inflation with a pea shooter, but they did claim that they might have to move quicker to bring inflation back to 2%…
In other news last night… The dollar drifted a bit higher, Gold is down $3 this morning, and the poor price of Oil just continues to get beaten and taken to the woodshed. Oil trades with a $74 handle this morning, and all the weakness in the price of Oil is being blamed on China… Oh, I got a laugh this morning, when I read a news headline that said, “Goldman says China will end zero Covid early”… I thought to myself, now Lola always gets what she wants here in the U.S. , but I don’t know how far her charms will take her… But, that’s just like Lola thinking that she runs the world!
The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond, slipped further down last night and trades this morning with a 3.67%… I just sit here shaking my head in wonderment at this bond and how it’s getting bought…
On Wednesday last week we saw the color of the FOMC’s Meeting Minutes from their latest meeting, where they hiked rated 75 Basis Points. I had told you that the markets would be scouring the minutes to see if there were any hints about a Fed Pivot… Well, this is what I pulled from the Fed’s website about the minutes: “The minutes confirmed that reining in inflation remains the principal concern of the Fed. The uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict will continue to add to the upside risk. While labor market conditions remain tight, there has been a softening in recent economic data, which is in line with the Fed’s expectations. Nonetheless, the path to restoring price stability is uncertain as monetary policy works with a lag, which will continue to dampen economic activity before inflation begins to wane.”
Chuck again, well, it doesn’t sound anything like a “pivot” to me! But then I didn’t go to Harvard, or Yale, or Stanford, etc. I’m just saying… You know those “boys” like to read something that’s not really there, and tell al the world what the Fed was saying… But not this time… But it still didn’t stop the bond buying… I’m screaming at the ceiling, Serenity Now!
Well, the Fed heads are conducting their test of their own CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency), while India is putting theirs into play… It’s all coming to life folks… And just like when Igor screamed “It’s Alive”, when The Frankenstein Monster came to life, and then went on to menace the town. These digital currencies are here to stay, and play havoc with your personal info… And your personal life choices, but don’t let that get in the way of proving convenience… I certainly wouldn’t want to stand in the way of you not having to go to an ATM for cash…
Remember before there were ATM’s? Oh, the awful things we had to do to get cash in our pockets! I’m just saying…
Because, you see, when the tests are over, and the Gov’t decides that it’s time, that’s what they will sell you on the convenience of using digital currencies… They won’t mention that from that time on, they would be able to dictate to you what you buy? Where you spend your digits? And if you’re not spending them, would you like to have them taken away from you? And for all that convenience, the bank will then introduce new banking fees… Oh, and don’t think you can just close your account and move somewhere else… Well, I guess if your move it out of the country then OK, but if not, forgetaboutit… All banks will have similar fees…
I have not idea how I got on this thread this morning… I’ve explained this all before, now haven’t I?
OK, back to stuff that’s happening now… From what I read this past weekend, the Black Friday sales were thin, but spending was good… And that’s a good thing, as long as the spending is within a person’s budget… Reuters reported that “Thin crowds of inflation-weary consumers hunted for Black Friday deals at stores in big cities including New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and other locales, marking the start of a U.S. holiday shopping season crucial to retailers in an uncertain economy.
Many shoppers who opened their wallets said their purchases were strategic, not impulsive or splurges.”
The U.S. Data Cupboard this week gets started slowly, with little of real economic data coming in today or tomorrow, but then on Wednesday the datapalooza begins, and carries through to Friday, where the BLS’s jobs creation report will print. I know it’s only Monday, but I’m going out on a limb here, no worries it’s a big fat limb, and say that if the jobs report is strong this Friday, then it will be only because of the BLS additions after the surveys… There!
To recap… The week ended last week with a dud for the dollar, and Gold gave back what it had gained on Wednesday… Chuck is concerned about the dollar’s demise and how far the PPT will allow it to fall… We shall see… Sweden hiked rates 75 Basis Points last night, and moved their internal rate to 2.5%, which is still far behind their inflation rate which is at 7.9%! The FOMC Meeting Minutes were printed last week, and as far as Chuck can see, there were no hints at pivoting…
For What It’s Worth… I’ve talked about Matthew Piepenburg of Gold Switzerland before and used his writing in this space a few times…This one is a good one and talks about how Gold’s recent rise comes at the right time, and it can be found here: https://www.dollarcollapse.com/matthew-piepenburg-golds-climb-amidst-wisdoms-decline/
Or, here’s your snippet: “As the latest headlines from the FTX implosion remind us yet again of a politicized and rigged market riddled with deception, gold’s climb becomes easier to foresee.
But first, a little philosophical musing…
Modern Policy: High Office, Low Wisdom
I have often referred to La Rochefoucauld’s maxim asserting the highest offices are rarely, if ever, held by the highest minds.
Nowhere has this been more apparent than among the halls of the physically impressive yet intellectually vacant Eccles Building on Constitution Ave in Washington DC, where a long string of Fed Chairs have been un-constitutionally distorting free market price discovery for over a century.
The media-ignored levels of open fraud and inflationary currency debasement which passes daily for monetary policy (namely monetizing trillions of sovereign debt with trillions of mouse-clicked Dollars) within the FOMC would be comical if not otherwise so tragic in its crippling ripple effect to the Main Street citizen.
From Greenspan to Powell, we have witnessed example after example of error after error and gaffe after gaffeon everything from mis-defining inflation narratives as “transitory” to re-defining a “recession” as non-recessionary.
And all this while the Fed (and its creative writing team at the BLS) simultaneously and deliberately fudges the math on everything from misreported CPI data to artificial U6 employment statistics.”
Chuck again… This article is longish, so click on the link above when you find that you have the time to devote to it… I find that when reading what Matthew writes, I can’t put it away easily.. I have to finish it! He’s got a great mind…
Market Prices 11/28/2022: American Style: A$ .6696, kiwi .6220, C$ .7443, euro 1.0469, sterling 1.2093, Swiss $1.0601, European Style: rand 17.1411, krone 9.9000, SEK 10.4113, forint 390.40, zloty 4.4816, koruna 23.1257, RUB 61.00, yen 138.43, sing 1.3734, HKD 7.8160, INR 81.66, China 7.1985, peso 19.32, BRL 5.4886, BBDXY 1,272.43, Dollar Index 105.52, Oil $74.06, 10-year 3.67%, Silver $21.37
Platinum $992.00, Palladium $1,843.00, Copper $3.63, and Gold… $1,753.77
That’s it for today… Well, hopefully this is a little shorter than usual, I found myself sitting at the laptop this morning, wonder what to write about that I haven’t already written about? Well, we’re getting down to the cheese that binds in College Football, after all the different league championship games this weekend, on Sunday the final four teams in the playoff will be announced… Then the teams selected will have 3 weeks to prepare… That seems to be a bit too much to me, but then there is the Christmas holiday there… Oh well, whatever! My beloved Mizzou Tigers will go bowling this year, hopefully somewhere where it’s warm! White Christmas with a Bossa Nova beat is taking us to the finish line today, as Jack Jezzro and friends, play… I like that Bossa Nova beat… And with that, I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please remember to Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler