April 27, 2023
* Currencies & metals get sold on Wednesday
* Lola is in love with yen…
Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Another game in S.F, and another loss for my beloved Cardinals last night, despite Paul Goldschmidt’s 2 home runs! The problem that I see, so far, is 1. our pitching stinks, and 2. we have our best run producing hitter batting 2nd.. Hmmm… if it were up to me, Goldy would be the clean up hitter each and every day… I’ve not been getting a good night’s sleep lately, the pain in my left foot keeps me awake, and it only comes in the middle of the night! So, I took a 2 hour nap yesterday, during the day… Gotta get my sleep! Redbone greets me this morning with the song: Come And Get Your Love… Boy, they sure made some great music in the 70’s, before disco that is…
Well, the dollar ended the day yesterday down 4 index points, not as much as it was down when we started the day from the overnight selling, but still down… The euro is trading well into the 1.10 handle once again, maybe this time it can get through the level and trade with a 1.11 handle… Maybe… Gold lost $9.10 on the day, losing to close at $1,989.60… You may have noticed yesterday that gold has reached $2,000, well that was an intraday price, and before the short paper traders arrived at their desks… I’m just saying… Silver seems to be getting the brunt of shot selling these days, and the daily losses for Silver have been larger than the average bear… Silver lost 13-cents yesterday, to close the day at $24.96…
I read a note yesterday on Blomberg.com about how Lola, (Goldman Sacs) has come out with their recommendations for currencies to buy, once the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel decide to cut rates… They are calling for euros, and yen to be their best bets… I told you yesterday that I was hearing about the currency houses thinking that the yen is bound for a strong move VS the dollar, because they believe the new Bank of Japan Gov. will be the yen’s savior… I still say that the Bank of Japan has disappointed too many time previously, and so I’m on board with them doing that again, and not giving the currency traders long yen what they want… (a move out of negative rates) If you are so inclined to go with what Lola says, then go right ahead, for they may be right, but I have my doubts… I’m just saying…
In the over night markets last night… There was some dollar weakness, the BBDXY lost 1 index point overnight, so no big movement… Gold is up $8 in the early trading today, and Silver has wrapped a tourniquet around its price and is up 3-cents in the early trading today. i’m thinking that once again currency traders are befuddled as to what they should do… Buy or Sell dollars? They know they should be selling dollars, but there’s those sneaky bas*&^%d;s at the PPT, who keep making those that short dollars pay for their positions, when the PPT comes in a throws millions of dollars at propping up the dollar… This is where currency traders need a pep talk, and since Knute Rockne isn’t here, I’ll have to do… “Boys & girls, you’ve come so close to pushing the dollar where it belongs, circling the bowl, and there have been some interruptions, but this is not the time to give up! So, let’s go get ’em!” Chuck, that was lame as far as a pep talk goes… Sorry, it’s been years since I had to deliver a pep talk!
In Bill Bonner’s daily letter yesterday he had this to say about the debt ceiling, “We’ve got news. There is no debt ‘ceiling.’ US government debt is in an elevator that just goes one direction – up. The ceiling goes up with it. But as it rises, so does US vulnerability — to defaults, bankruptcies, market crashes…and inflation.”
I laughed till I cried over that comment… Because it’s tru, it’s tru, I did see a putty tat! Why on earth would they cakk ut a “debt ceiling” when it’s been raised 78 times in the past! We all know how this is going to turn out, we get the 11th hour in June, and they miraculously come up with an agreement to allow our deficit to go higher… I’m currently reading a book by Ray Dalio, and he describes the past Empires the rise, their fall, and what happened in between, and then I’m sitting there imagining the U.S. empire, and we are on the down side from the top, and we have nothing but hard times ahead of us… Got Gold?
Bill Bonner ended his discussion about the debt elevator that only goes up with this though: ” Once again, overspending, over-borrowing, and over-printing matter. It’s not the debt ceiling that poses a problem; it’s the debt itself. Thanks to the reserve currency status of the dollar, excess greenbacks are still absorbed in overseas swamps. But as we saw yesterday, the swamps are being drained and dried out. Now, dollars accumulate at home…and raise consumer prices in the USA.” – Bill Bonner from bonnerprivatereserearch.com
You know, I keep telling you about how countries all over the world are coming up with plan to de-dollarize… And I guess I shoudl talk about how having the reserve currency of the world, and having a currency that is used in terms of transactions, are two different things… The dollar is losing its grip on the dollar being used in the terms of transactions, but it’s reserve status still has some time to run, for there isn’t an obvious challenger that could wrestle the reserve status away from the dollar… In 1999, when the euro was introduced, and within a couple of years was already the offset currency to the dollar, I thought then, that the euro could end up as the challenger to the dollar… But then debts of the Club Med countries were exposed in 2011, and the euro lost its lofty position, and value…
Then I thought the Chinee renminbi would overtake the dollar, but China’s capital markets/ bonds etc. didn’t have the distribution that Treasuries have, and so it was back to the drawing board… China may still overtake the dollar, but it’s not going to happen overnight, folks… It will be a long time coming… I’m just saying…
But you know what? How about a currency from a united front? Like the BRICS?? Why not? they have the so much going for them in terms of things that make a country rich, and ready to take the lead in the world… Think about that one, and I’m sure you’ll see the light…
OK, shifting gears… The good folks at GATA sent me this note yesterday regarding the Bank of England: “British families must “accept that they’re worse off” after a surge in inflation and stop pushing for a pay rise, a senior Bank of England official has said.
Huw Pill, the Bank’s chief economist, warned that rising prices have made the whole country poorer and said that attempts to bid up wages were merely prolonging the agony
It came just hours after another senior Threadneedle Street official insisted that the Bank would have been powerless to bring inflation under control even if it had acted faster on interest rates.”
Chuck again… Can you imagine our Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, coming out and saying something like that? They would be tarred and feathered and hung out on a line for everyone to see! The article went on to talk about how the British people will have to learn to live cheaper, and without so many things… I applaud the Bank of England or coming out telling people the truth, and not a pack of lies like our Central Bank does!
The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the Durable Good Orders for March, of which I told you I thought given the surprises in data prints so far this week, the print would be positive VS the negative print in Feb… And print positive it did, by 3.2%, a very strong showing, but there had to be some one time orders in there… I’m just saying…
Today’s Data Cupboard has the first revision of 1st QTR GDP… The first print was 2.6%… But I’m thinking that if all the reports in the first 3 months were counted, the GDP print will be revised downward… Probably just 2%… We’ll also see the usual print on Thursdays, the weekly initial jobless Claims, which have been inching higher lately, I’m sure that will continue… unless some bean counter masages the data first!
To recap… The currencies rallied on Wednesday, and tried to get the bad taste of the Monday beatdown out of their collective mouths… Gold lost $9 on the day, and Silver lost 13-cents… Chuck is really on the idea that the Debt Ceiling talks are worthless… They will raise our ability to add to the deficit, for 79th time… Got Gold?
For What It’s Worth.. This was sent to me from a trusted source, Brian K… And it made the hair on the back of neck stand up, and soon I was yelling at the wall, and pounding my fist on the desk with anger! This is about a new mortgage loan program that’s being started in a bank or mortgage lender new you… UGH! Well, there is a link to the article and here it is: What new rules on mortgage rates mean for people with higher credit scores – CBS Minnesota (cbsnews.com)
Or, here’s your snippet:”According to Experian, prospective buyers in Minnesota have averaged a FICO score of 742 in 2022 and 2021 – the highest average among all states – and those higher scores have typically rewarded buyers who pay bills on time with more affordable interest rates and closing costs. On the flip side, those with lower credit scores have needed to pay more to compensate for the lender’s higher risk in approving that loan.
Come May 1, however, new rules from federal regulators will tweak that formula by adjusting Loan Level Price Adjustments (LLPAs) that are set by underwriters Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In its announcement earlier this year, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) said the changes are designed to level the playing field and empower buyers from marginalized communities to compete in the hot market.
Danny Kovack, a Minnesota-based mortgage broker, told WCCO News the LLPAs will mean buyers with higher credit scores could be paying more in closing costs than they would have before, but it’s still better than having a lower score.
“Someone with a lower credit score is paying more to get the same rate as someone with a good credit score – still,” Kovack said. “It just used to be they were paying a lot more. They’ve made it closer to those with good credit. The better credit score, you’re getting a way better deal. They just made it just a tad bit worse for you.”
Chuck again,,, Ok, so now I’m trying to figure out what is the cause of this change? Is it to spread the wealth? This reminds me the Clinton/ Greenspan debacle to get inflation low so interest rates would drop and allow more pople to get a home loan… That turned out to be quite disastrous (housing bubble), and this too will turn out just as bad… mark my words on that!
Market Prices 4/27/2023: American Style: A$ .6619, kiwi .6150, C$ .7342, euro 1.1033, sterling 1.2476, Swiss $1,1193, European Style: rand 18.2549, krone 10.6184, SEK 10.3189, forint 338.59, zloty 4.1610, koruna 21.3023, RUB 81.54, yen 133.47, sing 1.3363, HKD 7.8500, INR 81.84, China 6.9210, peso 18.15, BRL 5.0450, BBDXY 1,225.70, Dollar Index 101.43, Oil $74.62, 10-year 3.46%, Silver $24.99Platinum $1,096.00, Palladium $1,520, Copper $3.85, and Gold… $1,997.03
That’s it for today… And this week… It’s been a long week for yours truly… Late nights, not much sleep, and the days are getting chillier again… UGH! But, the sun is lasting longer each day, and that is a good thing in my book! A day game today, but it’s supposed to be rainy day here, so I guess I be sent inside to watch it! I love middle of the week day games, of course, I’m one that thinks the majority of games should be played during the day… That’s my longtime wish… Good luck with that! I realize that people have jobs and can’t go to ballparks, but… In the times when there were no lights, they used to play day games that were well attended… I’m just saying… Robin Trower takes us to the finish line today with his song, and a place I keep going to: Bridge of Sighs… Robin was the lead guitar player for the band Procol Harum before going out on his own… There’s some rock trivia for you to remember! HA I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, a Fantastico Friday tomorrow, and that you will try to Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler