* currencies & metals get bought in the overnight markets
* The Rich Men North Of Richmond…
Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! What an awful weekend for my beloved Cardinals, who got swept at home by the Mets! UGH! This has really been a year that will test the true Cardinals fan… We had been experiencing non-August-like weather here in the St. Louis area, until yesterday, when the temps reached 100 and real August weather returned… I know some places in the U.S. have been really hot this summer, but not here, that is until this week… But I think I talked about this before, but when I was a young boy, I remember a week in August where the temps were over 100 every day for a week… Now… That’s real August heat! And why they call them the Dog Days of Summer… Yesterday, was my darling daugher Dawn’s Birthday… I remember when she was born, I walked out of the hospital in a haze, wondering what was I going to do with a girl? Well, according to her, I dressed her up as a boy, all the time! I doubt that I did that, but it doesn’t matter, because she grew up to be a beautiful young lady, that I was very proud of… This summer it was 20 years that she has been married… Where did the time go? Todd Rundgren greets me this morning with his great song: Hello, It’s me…
Well, there was no data in the cupboard on Friday, so the currencies were on their own… That is they would have been on their own if not for the short paper traders… Oh well, another day, another day of their interferences… The dollar gained 2 index points in the BBDXY on Friday, and ended the week at 1.241… There was not rhyme or reason that the dollar gained on Friday, but be that as it may, the currencies are not even close to the levels they were at the beginning of the month, when it looked as if the dollar was getting ready for ride on the slippery slope, long term…
Gold, with all the interference in its trading that it could stand, found a way to carve out a 50-cent gain on Friday… It ended the week at $1,890.50… Gold has reached $1,907 during the day on Friday, until it was wiped out by short paper trades… Silver saw the same interference and gained just 9=cents on Friday, to end the week at $22.86… Silver had reached $22.96 on Friday, before the interference came…
The price of Oil gained $1 on Friday and ended the week trading with an $81 handle… Bonds actually saw some love on Friday, and the 10-year’s yield dropped from 4.28% to 4.25%… In my eye, I see this as a temporary moment in the sell off of bonds…
In the overnight markets last night…Well, we’ve seen this two overnight sessions in a row… And that is the dollar getting sold… It’s not a major selloff, just normal selling that took 2 index points away from the BBDXY Index. The euro has climbed back above 1.09 this morning… And just a week ago, I was giving the ruble its eulogy, only to see the body bounce! There’s little on the data cupboard this week, until we get to the Opening remarks of the Jackson Hole boondoggle… So, we’ll just trade on fundamentals, eh? AS IF! We’ve not traded the currencies on fundamentals in a quite a few years no, I would think that there are a good number fo young traders that have never traded on fundamentals… Even the technical gurus have taken a back set to Trader Sentiment that drives this bus now…
To start the day and the week, Gold is flat as a pancake (Head East), and Silver is up 4-cents… Let’s see where Trader Sentiment takes these two today and this week, eh ?
The price of Oil has bumped higher by another buck overnight, and trades this morning with an $82, handle.. That brief dip below $80 last week, sure didn’t last long, now, did it? That’s because demand is high, it is the summer driving season, and supplies are dwindling… So, any attempt to bring the price of Oil back will be met with strong resistance, at least that’s how I see it from my view in the cheap seats…
Bonds have become a BIG story these days, and the story is all about the Tsunami of bonds that have been issued to finance our every rising debt, and have been met with tepid response… That means the yields need to go higher to attract investors… And higher they’ve gone… The 10-year trades with a 4.29% yield this morning… In the not to distant past, this bond’s yield was down to .5625%… That’s nearly 400 Basis Points of loss for those that bought the bond at that yield, and there were many banks, and institutions that “had to buy at that level” I feel sorry for them… but not for too long!
Well, this week will bring us news from the Jackson Hole, Wyoming Fed Boondoggle… This is an annual event, and in the past has brought us news of more Quantitative Easing, and additional rate cuts, and other things that if the markets were left alone to set rates, would mean nothing! Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, will be the featured speaker at the boondoggle, and the markets will be on the edges of their collective seats, listening to every word he mutters… It’s all a S*&^ show in my mind… and I’m not afraid to say that either!
So, look for some wild swings in the markets sentiment this week, as different speakers will say things that move markets one way or the other…
I know you don’t read this letter to listen to me rant and rant about this and that… But I heard this song last week, and thought, I’m no fan of country music, but this guy: Oliver Anthony really nailed the lyrics! here’s a brief snippet of his lyrics to the song: The Rich Men North of Richmond…
“Livin’ in the new world
With an old soul
These rich men north of Richmond
Lord knows they all just wanna have total control
Wanna know what you think, wanna know what you do
And they don’t think you know, but I know that you do
‘Cause your dollar ain’t shit and it’s taxed to no end
‘Cause of rich men north of Richmond”
And in a case of: What? They didn’t ask you, either? Reuters reported that; “The United States has approved sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine from Denmark and the Netherlands as soon as pilot training is completed” Just another item of debt that we amassed that will go down in flames, trust me on that one… We just keep shoving money down the drain…
And then we have the U.S. consumers spending their savings… When is this all going to come to a crash? This from Bloomberg.com: “Over the past two years, consumers have drawn down the more than $2 trillion in extra savings they accumulated during the pandemic in order to keep spending in the face of sky-high inflation.”
Chuck again… The report goes on to say that consumers’ savings are dwindling… Uh-oh!
in a head count of those Central Banks that are still hiking rates, is starting to show some wear and tear… The European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of England all seem to be on board for more rate hikes, while the Reserve banks of Australia and New Zealand have backed away from the rate hike window, for now that is, The Bank of Canada is so wishy washy, you never know what will come from that bunch of knuckleheads… The Russian Central Bank probably made a one and done 350 Basis Points rate hike last week, and the Bank of Brazil is still hiking rates at last check… The world is waiting for the Bank of Japan to get off their rear ends and do something, like get their interest rate structure out of negative territory… The world has been waiting for over 20 years now… And they’ll have to keep waiting in my opinion… The BOJ has a long history of disappointing the markets…
The U.S. Data Cupboard is basically empty until we get to Thursday this week… There’s some housing data that won’t have any surprises in them to print today and tomorrow… On our Tub Thumpin’ Thursday this week, the Jackson Hole boondoggle will kick off, with Jerome Powell’s speach coming on Friday this week…
Well, this was the news headline on MarketWatch last Thursday: Leading index for U.S. economy falls for the 16th month in a row — but still no recession. Leading economic indicator declines 0.4% in July… But did that shake the confidence of the short paper traders, who still continued to take their pound of flesh from Gold…
To recap… The dollar ended the week getting bought, but then got sold in the overnight markets last night… That marks two consecutive night sesssions where the dollar got sold… The U.S. builds it up, the overseas markets knock it down… The Big Event this week is the Jackson Hole Boondoggle… Chuck doesn’t think much of this boondoggle, but that doesn’t mean the markets won’t be sitting on the edges of their collective seats hanging on each and every word from Jerome Powell… UGH!
For What It’s Worth… Well, I’ve been waiting patiently, yeah right, ask anyone that knows me , and they’ll tell you I’m not a patient person! Ok, I’ve been waiting for this decision for some time… I’m talking about the decision to put the price manipulators in jail or not… This article can be found here; JPMorgan Spoofer Sentencings Delayed as Judge Reviews Mitigation (yahoo.com)
Or, here’s your snippet: “A federal judge delayed until next week the sentencing of two former JPMorgan Chase & Co. gold traders convicted last year of spoofing, fraud and attempted market manipulation, so he can review issues raised by defense lawyers hoping to keep their clients out of prison
Prosecutors had sought a sentence of five years behind bars for Michael Nowak, who ran JPMorgan’s precious-metals trading desk, and six years for Gregg Smith, the bank’s top gold trader.
But during a nearly three-hour hearing Thursday in Chicago federal court, attorneys argued over how to measure, in dollars, the harm to victims of deceptive trading by Nowak and Smith.
US District Judge Edmond Chang, who presided at their trial in August 2022, said he needed at least until next week to review the arguments and the law.
New sentencing dates weren’t set, but the judge said the soonest would be next Wednesday.
The JPMorgan case was part of a crackdown by federal prosecutors on illegal spoofing, where traders place bogus orders to move prices up or down and then quickly cancel them before they can be executed. Smith and Nowak used the technique to manipulate gold and silver prices from 2008 to 2016.”
Chuck Again… Ok, really jaded Chuck speaking now… Yeah the judge probably needed a week to entertain all the payoffs he might received if he doesn’t rule that these guys have to go to jail… I’m just saying…
Market prices 8/21/2023: American Style; A$ 6410, kiwi .5920, C$ .7396, euro 1.0906, sterling 1.2757, Swiss $1.1366, European Style: rand 18.9935, krone 10.5770, SEK 10.9278, forint 350.10, zloty 4.1075, koruna 22.0221, RUB 94.88, yen 145.87, sing 1.3567, HKD 7.8389, INR 83.11, China 7.2951, peso 17.04, BRL 4.9678, BBDXY 1,239.60, Dollar Index 103.23, Oil $82.19, 10-year 4.29%, Silver $22.90, Platinum $906.00, Palladium $1,256.00, Copper $3.70, and Gold… $1,889.30
That’s it for today… This will be a long, slow, hot week for yours truly… Well, my beloved Cardinals finally bit the bullet and brough up thier #1 prospect this past weekend… He hasn’t lit up the scoreboard with his bat yet, but he started out slow at AAA too, so give him some time… There’s a song that goes: You’ve got to take some time to let love grow…. To; Kevin, Duane, Rick, Mike & Mike, Denny, no cheating with Google, I’ll buy a beer for whoever can tell me who sang that song? Our StL City team played last night and played well after a 3-week hiatus and won the game 6-3… I had to sell my tickets to the game, as I’m still not ready for prime time… Besides the game didn’t start until 8:45 last night, and it was a “school Night”! Los Bravos take us to the finish line today with their 60’s song: Black Is Black… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler