- The dollar continues to defy the data, and rally…
- Consumer Debt explodes higher!
Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you. Well, I told you on Monday that I was scared to step on the scale after the previous 4 days of celebrating my son’s wedding, and when I did step on the scale, I did an “oh boy”… And not a good “oh boy”…. I was upset to see that I had gained 10 pounds. Pounds that I had already lost not once, but twice, and now I’ll have to lose it again! UGH! This losing weight at my age, and inability to exercise, is very difficult, but I’ll do it, because I had just purchased a size smaller couple of pairs of pants… I’ve gone down 6 waist sizes in the past 2 years… I’m proud of that! The Winter GM meetings in baseball are ongoing right now, I expect to hear that my beloved Cardinals have traded a BIG-NAME player…. Vince Guaraldi greets me this morning with his song: Skating….
The dollar drifted higher in yesterday’s trading, with the BBDXY showing a 2 index point gain to 1.282…. I whined enough yesterday about dollar buying so I won’t go further on that today… Just know that I don’t believe that the dollar buyers now, will be happy with their purchases in the near future…. The price of Gold leapt higher yesterday, and ended the day up $36 to close at $2,695, and Silver did indeed make yesterday a “turn around Tuesday” by turning around it’s early morning loss to a gain of 11=cents, to close at $32.01… That’s a significant, level for Silver to hold and add to, it had tried and tried to get to $31 only to see the short paper traders use that level as a “line in the sand”… But now it’s in Silver’s rear-view mirror….
I had told you yesterday that China being back at the buying physical Gold table, would help the price of Gold to continue its recovery from the selloff in November… And look there! It passed $2,700 overnight, so back in the saddle again.. Out where a friend is a friend, Where the longhorn cattle feed, On the lowly jimson weed, Gold is back in the saddle again!
The price of Oil remained trading in the $68 handle again yesterday… That’s 3 trading days without any movement, except within the handle…. Everyone is worried about the goings on over there, including what’s going to happen next in Syria…. So, I guess Oil traders don’t want to make any statements or commitments on the price of Oil…
The 10-year Treasury’s yield bumped higher again yesterday, and ended the day trading with a 4.23% yield… So, the scenario I laid out for you on Monday this week, seems to be playing out just as I described it…. How about that?
In the overnight markets last night… Well, here’s the deal…. I overslept again this morning, so that means I got the STUPID CPI report already…. The dollar got bought again in the overseas markets last night, and the BBDXY has gained 1.5 index points to start the day today… The currencies are in retreat once again… The STUPID CPI report showed that U.S. inflation picked up for a second straight month in November on a rise in food and gasoline prices, underscoring that the final stretch of the Federal Reserve’s two-year battle against sharply rising prices has become more challenging.
Consumer prices overall increased 2.7% from a year ago, up/down from 2.6% in October, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index, a popular measure of goods and services costs. That’s the second increase following six straight declines and it leaves annual inflation moderately above the Fed’s 2% goal. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected a bump to 2.7%
On a monthly basis, costs rose 0.3%, the most since April. That’s “core inflation”, which excludes food and energy, as if we don’t use them daily….
So, is the rate cut still on board for the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel? you bet your sweet bippie it is! The Fed Heads cut rates when inflation was still above their target rate of 2%, to start the rate cut cycle, so what’s to stop them from cutting again now? I read a piece last night about how the write felt that the Fed Heads would cut in December and then pause in January…. For what that’s worth….
The price of Gold continues to recover its November losses, and starts today up $6, while Silver has given back some to start the day today and is down a shiny quarter…. The dollar bugs believe that this STUPID CPI report along with some of the other data that has printed lately, will cause the Fed Heads from cutting rate next week…. And that’s why the dollar has gained again overnight… I say hogwash! But then that’s just me…
The price of Oil bumped higher overnight and starts today trading with a $69 handle, while the 10-year Treasury’s yield sits at 4.21% to start the day… I read a piece by Ray Dalio this morning, and Ray Dalio is someone I respect and enjoy reading… So, Ray said to buy Gold & Bitcoin and not bonds…. He feels like I do that bonds are heading into a headwind that will blow them out of the water…. My words, not Ray’s….
I came across some data that I mentioned briefly the other day, and that is the credit card debt in the U.S. Well, there’s more to the story, and her it is; American consumers now owe over $5.1 trillion in consumer debt.
The Federal Reserve consumer debt figures include credit card debt, student loans, and auto loans but do not factor in mortgage debt. When you include mortgages, U.S. households are buried under a record level of debt. As of the end of the third quarter, total household debt stood at $17.94 trillion.
Aye, Aye, Aye! I don’t blame some people for running up the credit card debt when they need to… But is all that “need to?” I doubt it…. In addition, the people are just following the lead of the Gov’t. And if all comes to a head, the people will look to the Gov’t for a bail out…. I’m just saying….
I read something last night that scared the bejeebers out of me…. It was Doug Casey’s International Man site, so go there if you want to read more about this gloomy message… Here’s a short description of what it’s all about: “In short, the ruling elite—parasites, more accurately—have weaponized the banking system to enforce conformity to their preferred narrative.
If you speak out against Big Pharma’s poison, a phony climate “crisis,” rigged elections, endless wars sold on lies, or whatever the media is hyping as the “current thing,” expect the financial hammer to come down on you without warning.”
Uh-Oh! I know I’m just little ol’ Chuck in the Midwest writing to his dear readers of years, and I’m flying below their radar, but this all depends on how long this goes on, and how deep it goes…. I sure hope the writer of that article is wrong…. But I’ve worried about guys in sunglasses, showing up at my door, with a cease and desist order for some time, but don’t worry, until that happens if it happens at all, I’ll keep telling you the truth about Gov’t lies, and their rigging the economic reports… You can count on that!
The Bank of Canada meets today to discuss rates… The markets are all-in on a Bank of Canada rate cut… And that’s evident in the Canadian dollar/ loon,,, The C$ has really dropped in recent days leading up to the rate announcement today…. The European Central Bank (ECB ) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB ) will meet tomorrow to announce their rate decisions… I expect all three to announce rate cuts…. So much for defeating inflation, eh?
The good folks at GATA sent me this yesterday: “Continued restrictions on dollar settlements in world trade will increase the opportunities for using national currencies and developing new universal instruments and gold can again become the dollar’s main competitor in global trade, Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin said at the Verona Eurasian Economic Forum.
“Using the dollar as an instrument of sanctions is a big mistake, because trade will never stop. Both energy security and life in general depend on it. Alternatives will always be found. Gold will be the dollar’s main competitor, which mankind has been using for thousands of years for settlements,” Sechin said. He also added that the U.S. has lost its leadership in science, industry, and finance and has failed to maintain a fair world order.”
Chuck again… Now that would be something, if Gold did become the dollar’s main competitor in Global Trade….
The U.S. Data Cupboard today, finally has something for us…. And I already went through the STUPID CPI print, and even if the number is muted by The BLS’s hedonic adjustments, the idea of inflation being sticky, and not going away will be on the markets’ minds, and that should help Gold continue its recovery….
Speaking of inflation… Bill Bonner had this report from a friend in Argentina yesterday: “Consumer price inflation hit 25% in the month of December 2023, as Milei took office. That’s equivalent to an annual rate of close to 1,400% (with compounding). Actual (backwards looking) inflation peaked at over 280% in the early part of this year. By October, the latest available figure, Argentina’s monthly inflation rate had dropped to 2.7%, equivalent to 38% a year (with compounding). That’s still high, but it’s a major improvement.”
Bills letters come from: bonnerprivateresearch@substack.com
To recap… The dollar drifted higher yesterday by 2 index points in the BBDXY, but Gold gained $36 and Silver gained 11-cents, after starting the day down 19-cents, which would make Silver’s turnaround 30-cents on the day! The Bank of Canada meets today to discuss rates…. Gold could become the dollar’s main competitor in Global Trade, and are the guys in sunglasses are looking for Chuck?
For What It’s Worth… This report just ticked me off to the nth degree! This is a report about how Gov’t/ Federal workers rarely show up for work but still get paid…. And it can be found here: Senate Report Reveals Only 6% of Federal Workers Show Up in Person on Full-Time Basis
Or, here’s your snippet: “enator Joni Ernst’s office had been investigating the federal government’s telework protocols for the past year and a half and concluded that “The nation’s capital is a ghost town, with government buildings averaging an occupancy rate of 12%.” She revealed that a paltry 6% of the federal workforce “report in-person on a full-time basis” while almost one-third of federal workers are remote on a full-time basis, in a sharp turn-around from the pre-pandemic era in which only 3% teleworked daily. Elon Musk posted this comment: “If you exclude security guards & maintenance personnel, the number of government workers who show up in person and do 40 hours of work a week is closer to 1%! Almost no one.”
She said that President Biden set a bad example by spending little time in the White House. She reported that his administration is not transparent, and it redacted the “work locations of over 281,000 rank-and-file federal employees.” Ernst also faulted federal employee unions for hampering efforts to compel workers to report on-site for their jobs. The union for the Social Security Administration negotiated a contract that will prevent the Trump administration from requiring employees to appear in person for work.”
Chuck Again…. I’ve said my piece above about this…. And I don’t want to get my blood pressure boiling!
Market Price 12/11/2024: American Style: A$.6365, kiwi .5789, C$ .7053, euro 1.0508, sterling 1.2759, Swiss $1.320, European Style: rand 17.7396, krone 11.1358, SEK 10.9523, forint 389.29, zloty 4.0596, koruna 23.8875, RUB 107.05, yen 152.14, sing 1.3428, HKD 7.7746, INR 84.84, China 7.2613, peso 20.17, BRL 6.0214, BBDXY 1,283.75, Dollar Index 106.53, Oil $69.48, 10-year 4.21%, Silver $31.76, Platinum $937.00, Palladium $964.00, Copper $4.26, and Gold… $2,701.37
That’s it for today… Tomorrow will be the only Tub Thumpin’ Thursday Pfennig this month, as the following Thursday I’ll be in Houston, and then I’m on vacation, so you had better get your coffee, and strudel and sit down tomorrow to read the Pfennig with vigor! HA! Our Blues played in Vancouver last night, too late for me to watch, but they won 4-3, in overtime…. So, that’s in the books now… I really enjoyed seeing the wily old veteran, Jack Milner Monday night, and old friend Chris Gaffney, and my latte buddy, Michelle Boschert, And Dean, Don, Janet, and then there was my lunch buddy, Ellie Williams… There were more, too many to name, but I had a grand time! My beloved Mizzou Tigers get to bask in the sun from their victory Sunday VS Kansas, until Saturday this week…. Warren Hill takes us to the finish line today with his jazzy version of the song: Santa Baby…. I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and will Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler