- the dollar rebounds on Wednesday…
- Housing is seeing some weakness…
Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to you! Today is June Nineteenth and is observed as a day to celebrate the end of slavery… I do believe I got that right, but if not, I’m sure some reader will let me know that I’m wrong… Cardinals were rained out last night in Chi-town and will play a doubleheader today… Let’s Play 2! I know I told you yesterday that I wouldn’t be writing today, but as I looked at the calendar in my phone, I noticed that I wasn’t due at the infusion center until 10:40, and I thought, Shoot Rudy, I can still write! And so I am… Lucky you, eh? HA! Jonathan Edwards greets me this morning with his great 70’s song: Shanty…
Well, the dollar selling that started Tuesday night, faded on Wednesday in the U.S. session, and the dollar regained the 2 index points it had lost Tuesday night, and closed at 1,209… Not a HUGE rally by the dollar, but it wasn’t negative either, and with that thought, the dollar/ euro traders decided to let the euro fall below the 1.15 figure that it had held for a few days… The dollar also had the FOMC on its side yesterday, when the Fed Heads kept rates unchanged, just as I said they would.
Apparently, the Fed Heads are still not convinced that inflation isn’t a done deal / finished/ completed/ over with… And for once they are in tune with what I’m thinking and saying all the time… Inflation is sticky and will remain sticky as long as the tariffs hang over a rate cut like the Sword of Damocles….
Yesterday, I told you that Gold had seen some selling along with Silver in the early trading, but that the figures were easily reversed and then said, C’mon you buyers! Well, apparently the buyers listened and Gold and Silver reversed their negative figures… But that only lasted briefly because, the short paper traders showed up and took Gold down $17, and Silver down 31-cents… The Silver take down took Silver below the $37 handle, after it had held it for a couple of days… No worries, I believe that Silver will return to the $37 handle, and then to $38 and so on… I’m just saying
The price of Oil remained well bid above $75 yesterday, and the 10-year Treasury saw some buying and the yield ended the day at 4.39%…
In the overnight markets last night… the dollar got bought some more and we start the day with the BBDIY at 1,211… That’s up 2 index points overnight… I’m still of the opinion that weakness in the dollar will return… The euro remained below the 1.15 figure overnight, and the rest of the currencies are looking a little peaked this morning… Gold is up $5 to start our day today… And Silver is down 40-cents! I have to say that 2 days ago, when it was Siver’s Day, that the buying looked to me as short covering…
The price of Oil has bumped up again and starts today trading with a $76 handle, which means the Petrol Currencies aren’t seeing major selling… The 10-year Treasury starts the day with a 4.39% yield… I would have thought that the bond boys would have gotten to pushing the yield higher after the FOMC rate announcement, but, apparently not!
Well, the buildup of the FOMC Meeting yesterday, left everyone thinking that the Fed Heads just might surprise the markets with a rate cut… But that was not to be, as the Fed Heads kept rates unchanged… I’m sure they received a phone call from the PPT telling them that the PPT sure could use some assistance in helping to keep the dollar from falling off a cliff… Not that that had anything to do with the Fed Heads keeping rates unchanged… I’m speculating there…
You know, yesterday, I was talking about the slowing down of the momentum in Gold, and then I saw this that pretty much tells me that Gold is only slowing down because it’s summer, and traditionally, Gold wallows in the summer… This is from Moneymetals.com
“Central banks have gobbled up over 1,000 tons of gold for three straight years, and most central bankers think the buying trend will continue.
Based on the World Gold Council’s annual Central Bank Gold Survey, it appears the buying trend will continue.
Of the 73 central banks that responded to the survey, 95 percent said they believe central bank gold reserves will increase over the next 12 months. A record 43 percent of the respondents indicated they expect their own gold reserves to expand. That was up from 29 percent in 2024.
It was the largest number of central banks to ever respond to the World Gold Council survey. The WGC said the increase in participation isn’t just about a number.”
Chuck again… And as I’ve told you for years now… If the Central Banks are buying physical Gold, you should too… I know for most of you reading this letter, I’m singing to the Choir… But those of you who have procrastinated and kept saying that Gold is going to fizz out, you might want to take this info to heart and buy… I’m just saying…
The Good Folks at GATA sent me this note that was in Forbes (but you have to have subscription to read it there) : “China’s central bank governor has said he expects a new global currency order to emerge after decades of dominance by the U.S. dollar, with the renminbi competing in a “multi-polar international monetary system.”
Speaking at China’s flagship financial forum in Shanghai, Pan Gongsheng said the U.S. dollar had “established its dominance” after the second world war and “retained its status up till now.” He warned of “excessive reliance” on a single currency.”
Chuck again… I go back to my speech in Orlando, Fla many years ago, when I told the audience that I thought the Chinese renminbi would overtake the dollar as the reserve currency in 10-years… Well, that didn’t happen in that time frame, but it doesn’t mean it won’t happen, eventually!
See? I can be wrong… I admit it, (my wife would argue that point) and usually, I see the error of my ways… I just won’t give up on this thought that China’s renminbi becomes more worldly than the dollar… That’s my story and I’m sticking to it!
And when I see an article like this that the Good Folks at GATA sent me, it give me more pfodder… “When Paula Comings, the head of currency sales for U.S. Bancorp, talks to U.S. importers, she increasingly hears the same message: Their foreign counterparties no longer want to be paid in dollars.
Instead, they ask for settlement in euros, Chinese renminbi, the Mexican peso, or the Canadian dollar, looking to limit their exposure to further swings in the greenback.”
This is the great de-dollarization that’s going on folks… Your dollars are getting treated like they came from a banana republic… I’m just saying…
Yesterday, I was talking about the U.S. Debt… And then I saw this figure that just makes me so angry… The May Budget Deficit was $316 Billion, and was the second largest of the fiscal year. That puts the annual deficit for the fiscal year at d $1.36 Trillion. Last year after May the deficit was 1.2 Trillion… So that means we’re ahead of last year’s $1.8 Trillion deficit… I don’t think they give you an blue ribbons or medals or sashes for that!
The U.S. Data Cupboard today is empty… There are no economic reports printing today because of the June Nineteenth semi-holiday… The weekly Initial Jobless Claims that usually print on Thursday, printed yesteday, and were 245,000 filers… and tomorrow’s data only has the May Leading Indicators, which have negative for so long now, it would be a miracle to see them print positive, especially with all the awful data that’s been printing…
To recap… The dollar selling that took place Tuesday night, faded yesterday, and the dollar rallied a bit during the day with the BBDXY gaining 2 index points. The FOMC left rates unchanged… and for once in a Blue Moon, Chuck agrees with their stance regarding inflation… Central Banks are still looking to add to their Gold reserves this year, and our debt just keeps getting worse…. I shake my head with disbelief of this phenomenon…
For What it’s Worth… Well, a couple of weeks ago I wrote about how the housing market was looking like it was listing… And now the Housing Starts have plummeted to levels not seen since 2020, the COVID year… So that’s the gist of the FWIW article today and it can be found here:Housing Starts & Permits Plunge To Weakest Since COVID Lockdowns | ZeroHedge
Or, here’s your snippet: “A day after home BUILDER sentiment finally cracked (though still dramatically more ‘confident’ than home BUYERS)…
…and mortgage rates are rebounding higher, Housing Starts and Building Permits expectations were mixed ahead of this morning’s print.
The actual data was NOT mixed with both Starts (-9.8% MoM) and Permits (-2.0% MoM) well below expectations…
This is the biggest MoM drop in multi-family unit starts since 2022…
This dragged the SAARs for both Starts and Permits down to their lowest level since the CVID lock-downs…
Perhaps the most shocking chart – that explains why builders are not building single-family homes is that inventories of unsold NEW homes is surging…
This should not be a surprise given the weakness expected from builders for future sales…
Chuck again… Well, I do admit that by keeping interest rates at the current levels means mortgage rates are high (for this cycle) but Home prices are still very high, so we shouldn’t panic here… The median home price is $411,000 and the median income is $43,036…. Something there doesn’t jive in my mind… So, maybe we do need to panic!
Market Prices 6/19/2025: American Style: A$.6465. Kiwi .5975, C$ .7295, euro 1.1477. Sterling 1.3417, Swiss $1.2208, European Style: rand 18.0892, krone 10.0580, SEK 9.6445, forint 351.46, zloty 3.7285, koruna 21.6621, RUB 78.43, yen 146.63, sing 1.2879, HKD 7.8497, INR 86.79, China 7.1873, peso 18.09, BRL 5.4931, BBDXY 1,211, Dollar Index 98.96, Oil $76.35, 10-year 4.39%, Silver $36.37, Platinum $1,300.00, Palladium $1,056.00, Copper $4.86, and Gold… $3,374
That’s it for today, and this week, this time I mean it! One more day and night all by myself… Kathy comes home Friday… I thought her return was today, but again, I was proven wrong! I made some delish shrimp kabobs last night on my Blackstone grill, with lots of pineapple on them! I love pineapple, and we have to wait so long up north for good pineapples to show up in the grocery stores… But all winter long in S. Florida where I preside, no problems! Cardinals and Pale Hose for two today… Should be must see TV! Junior Walker and the All Stars take us to the finish line today with their great 60’s song: Shotgun… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!