- currencies are out of their respective sick beds!
- Copper is on the mover…
Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! 2 down 2 to go for my beloved Cardinals VS the Cubs… The teams waited until almost July before facing each other and will now play each other 5 more times in the next two weeks… Crazy schedule! Another hot day here yesterday, but that didn’t stop me from going out to read! The Scorpions greet me this morning with their great ballad: Still Loving You (which is one of my favorite people in the world Favorite song!. Right, Laura B?)
OK… the dollar slid a little further yesterday losing 2 index points in the BBDXY, and the euro climbing back over the 1.16 handle… And the rest of the currencies following the Big Dog, euro, chasing the dollar down the street. Shoot Rudy, even the Japanese yen rallied VS the dollar! If I recall correctly, the last time the dollar went into a prolonged weak trend the start was Feb. 2002… And that lasted until 2013 or so… The currencies were playing hard to get, and didn’t want to give up the throne… But eventually, the dollar won out, and has been in a strong trend since then… There have been some false dawns along the way, but each of those had the PPT step in to intervene and scare the dollar sellers away until the next time…
So, I would say that 12 years in a strong trend was overstaying its welcome, in my humble opinion.. There’s just too much chaos going on the U.S., with the debt exploding, bonds not getting bought (except by the Fed Heads) war hanging over us like Damocles’ Sword… Stocks too have been in a bull market for way over its value, but I’m not here to talk about stocks, so… we’ll just move along..
Gold didn’t fare too well yesterday and gave back $22 of its gains… Gold closed the day at $3,325… Silver followed Gold’s lead, and lost 20-cents on the day to close at $35.97… Once again falling back below $36… The price of Oil lost $3 in the last 24 hours and ended the day yesterday trading with a $65 handle… And the 10-year Treasury was bought or marked up whichever, and the yield fell to 4.30%…
I read yesterday that the bond boys are eyeing the 10-year at 4% before the year is out… Well, I guess they are taking into consideration that the Fed Heads will cut rates a couple of times before the end of the year? They may have to reconsider their calculation because the Chief jefe of the FOMC, Jerome Powell, stated “the Fed will maintain a “wait-and-see” approach regarding interest rate adjustments.”
I know, I know that some of the members of the FOMC have been out calling for rate cuts, but I doubt that Powell would be influenced by them if he wasn’t influenced by the POTUS! But it was reported yesterday that Two President Trump-appointed Fed officials favor interest rate cuts as soon as next month. Seven of their colleagues don’t envision cutting rates this year at all. So, there’s that…
In the overnight markets last night… The dollar continued to get sold, so the rout is on in my humble country boy opinion… The BBDXY starts today down 5 index points from yesterdays’ open, and the euro remains above 1.16… My only question now is: Where is the PPT and their treasure trove of funds to defend the dollar? Or, as I’ve chronicled here in the Pfennig in the past, the POTUS wants a cheaper dollar… So, could the PPY been told to cool their jets? Now, that would be something!
Gold starts today, flat as a pancake (Head East) and Silver is down 24-cents. You know what I feel that a lot of people think that Gold is simply a hedge for geopolitical events, like the Israel / Iran conflict… But, that’s not all Gold is good for… Gold is also a hedge to protect you from a weakening dollar… And Gold is as good as there is as a wealth protection vehicle… I’m just saying…
The price of Oil has slid another buck to trade this morning with at $64 handle… Traders feel that the risk is over… And they are much like the good witch Glinda, telling the munchkins to all come out, that’s it’s all clear… I sure hope they are correct… but I have a sneaky feeling this conflict will return… And the 10-year Treasury didn’t see any action overnight and starts today trading with a 4.30% yield…
n 2001, I wrote a white paper and titled it “The Demise of the Dollar” And it was very insightful because the weak dollar trend started just a few months later… In 2003, I wrote another white paper titled ” The Year of the Euro”… And once again, it was insightful, because the euro had already taken off, but really put a mile of distance between it and the dollar in 2003…
At that time I was beginning my career as a conference speaker, and in Orlando 2003, I spoke to a crowd that took up all the seats, sat on the floor and stood against the walls to hear what I had to say about the dollar… They wouldn’t let anyone else in the room and Chris Gaffney stood at the door and would repeat what I had to say to the crowed that couldn’t get in the door.!
The Pfennig was really taking off at that time, as there were nights after we turned off the phones, that at least 4 of us were inputting email addresses to the Pfennig list of readers… At one time a couple of years later, I asked our marketing person, Jason Coots to add up all the readers at other sites… he came back to tell me that at least 500,000 readers were reading the Pfennig daily…
Those numbers have come down by 100’s but I’m still writing… I told you all that because sometimes I think that newer readers don’t know how important the Pfennig was in “its day”… And How when the media wanted to know what was going on with the dollar, they called me… So, when I say that I think the dollar has entered a weak trend, there’s some history to my thinking and I’m not just talking, and saying things I know nothing about…
My resume’ just at EverBank would take up several pages! Did you know that at EverBank we had a brokerage co. Called EverTrade, and that I started that brokerage in my basement? Strange, eh? But when the currency business came to EverBank I switched to the currencies immediately, my true love, at that time that is…
So, I checked the currency roundup and saw that the Petrol Currencies haven’t gotten the snot knocked out them with the price of Oil dropping… The Russian ruble hasn’t moved much at all, and the ruble is strictly an Oil play… The dollar dropping while the Oil price is too, really helps the Petrol Currencies. Otherwise, they would be causing some major tears…
And the Swiss franc after cutting rates and talking about how they might have to go negative rates, didn’t get punished… Instead, it rallied VS the dollar…
It won’t be much longer, and people will begin to notice that the dollar is faltering and they need to protect their investment portfolios from having all dollar denominated asset classes… You do that by having an allocation of currencies and metals…
It’s been a long time since I talked about diversification… But this is something that should be done whether the dollar is sinking or not… You own currencies and metals as your diversification away from the dollar… So, at some point the currencies rally and make up for your dollar denominated assets… or vice versa as it has been since 2013…
And before I head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to point out that Copper is on the move to higher ground, and it’s all because of a supplies are dwindling and the shorts in the currency are getting squeezed out… here’s Bloomberg.com : “Copper faces historic squeeze with LME stockpiles depleting fast. And here are the good folks at GATA: ” One of the copper market’s biggest-ever squeezes is unfolding on the London Metal Exchange, as rapidly declining inventories push up spot prices.” Go ahead and check out the currency and metals roundup this morning, and see what I’m talking about with Copper…
And they say that Copper rising in price is sign that Silver is on the move higher too… So, back up the truck, and load up on Silver would be my suggestion, but then we do have to deal with the short paper traders who currently have short position in Silver that equal to 188 days of Silver production… So, when those are reduced by a large amount, that’s when Silver will be allowed to head to $40 and beyond… I’m just saying…
One of the copper market’s biggest-ever squeezes is unfolding on the London Metal Exchange, as rapidly declining inventories push up spot prices.
The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday, had the S&P Case/Shiller Home Price report for April… I know, I know this data is so stale that it is close to being useless… But the report did show that Home Prices had fallen and that was important… But apparently haven’t fallen enough to get people to buy existing houses… We also saw the STUPID Consumer Confidence for June and it surprised even me, falling from 98% to 93%… Uh-Oh…
Today’s Data Cupboard has just the new Home Sales in May, and I would expect them to show a deep drop in sales… I guess, we’ll see, eh?
To recap… The dollar continued to get sold yesterday, and Chuck goes some of the things he has done in the past to denote the weak dollar trend that existed from 2002 to 2013 ish… The price of Oil is dropping like the proverbial rock falling from a cliff, and I would warn people to fill up now, because when the fit hits the shan the next time it’s going to get ugly…
For What It’s Worth… This article came to me from www.zerohedge.com where you’ll have to search for it if you want to read it all, because they sent it to me, I don’t have the exact website info… But it’s an article about Central Bank buying of Gold and why you should be too:
Or, here’s your snippet: “Central Banks Are Buying Gold Again. Shouldn’t You Be?
Global central banks are on pace to buy 1,000 metric tons of gold in 2025, marking their fourth consecutive year of massive purchases as they diversify reserves from dollar-denominated assets.
They’re not buying bonds. They’re not hoarding dollars. They’re quietly and consistently accumulating physical gold. If that doesn’t raise questions about the future of the dollar and global stability, it should.
What Do Central Banks Know That You Don’t?
This isn’t just a hedge. It’s a strategic shift.
Gold doesn’t carry counterparty risk
It’s independent of sanctions, politics, or SWIFT systems
It offers a way to diversify away from the U.S. dollar
With rising geopolitical tensions, debt concerns, and inflation risk, central banks are sending a message: trust in fiat systems is fading — and gold is the fallback plan.
Follow the Smart Money. Start with Gold.
If sovereign nations are preparing for instability, individual investors should be too. Gold offers long-term security in a way paper assets never will.
The best time to start stacking was yesterday. The second-best time is now.”
Chuck Again… Well, aren’t those all the reasons I’ve told you about through the years? But sometimes it takes hearing it from someone else for it to sink through! I know that most of you dear readers are holders of Gold already, but do you have enough to hedge your exposure to a weaker dollar? I’m just saying…
Market Prices 6/25/2025: American Style: A$ .6495, kiwi .6024, C$ .7287, euro 1.1604, sterling 1.3507, Swiss 1.2365, European Style: rand 17.7783, krone 10.1529, SEK 9.5262, forint 345.70, zloty 3.6611, koruna 21.3417, RUB 78.38, yen 146.77, sing 1.2806, HKD 7.8500, China 7.1742, peso 18.96, BRL 5.5713, BBEDXY 1,203, Dollar Index 98.08, Oil $64.85, 10-year 4.30%, Silver $35.73, Platinum $1,310.00, Palladium $1,080.00, Copper $4.95, and Gold… $3,325
That’s it for today and this week… Good luck to me, and my eye surgeon tomorrow, I certainly don’t want to think about it if something goes wrong… There are just too many things to think about there… And I refuse to do it! My former Big Boss, and good friend, Frank Trotter, sent me a text last night, saying: Winning on a mental error, we’ll take it… Yes, the winning run last night scored on a sacrifice fly to center field, but the runner started at 2nd base! The centerfielder forgot how many outs there were and didn’t hustle the ball back into the infield… And the runner just kept going, and that was that! The Beach Boys take us to the finish line today with their great ballad song: God Only Knows… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please take care of yourself, and if you’re in the Midwest, try to stay somewhere cool… stay out of the heat!
Chuck Butler