- The dollar continues to get bought by bits and pieces
- We live in a world of Opposites….
Good Day… And a Tub Thmpin’ Thursday to one and all! What an embarrassment outing for the Cardinals’ pitchers last night… I think the team has gone about as far as they can go with 3 of their starters… Their luck has run out! Do you hear me Mo? (The GM) The World Cup will be back in 2026, with games in a host of countries… Isn’t it about time for the U.S. team to make a run in the tournament? Well, if a ton of the boys that sit in their parents’ basement playing video games would play the game, we maybe could find a super star! War greets me this morning with their great 70s song: Low Rider…
A chamber of commerce day here yesterday… I sat outside reading for a long time until the heat of the day Started to get to me… Then returned outside in the late afternoon, until the baseball game started. I then subjected myself to Yet another badly pitched game by the Cardinals… this has been occurring too often lately… UGH! The GM had better get some starting pitching at the Trade Deadline, or this team is toast! Blue Swede greets me this morning with their version of a 60’s song done in the 70’s: Hooked On A Feeling
When I left you yesterday, the dollar had been bought overnight, and sat at 1,196 to start the day… And the dollar ended the day at 1,196, so no gain, no loss on the day for the green/peachback… The euro remained above the 1.17 handle and the rest of the currencies kind of drifted along throughout the day… Gold turned things around for once, in the last week and rallied. Gold gained $12 to close the day at $3,312… Silver didn’t turn things around and lost ground on Wednesday to the tune of 32-cents to close at $36.31…
I read last night that the World Gold Council, which is normally a very conservative outfit, not wanting to hype Gold, had come out with a statement that went something like this: “Gold will continue to benefit from the U.S.’s debt and financial instability, and doesn’t have to rely on a financial crisis for its rally”…
Chuck again… so, if this normally stick in the mud kind of organization sees the U.S. having fiscal instability, and says it out loud, then we should sit up and notice, and take action… Got Gold?
The price of Oil remained in the $68 handle yesterday… I also read that there is still no peace in the Middle East, with the Houthis taking over ships and sinking them. So, as long as the Oil tankers can get by, the price of Oil should remain well-bid…
The 10-year Treasury saw some buying yesterday, (From whom?) and its yield dropped to 4.33%, from 4.41% where it started the day… That’s a big drop for one day’s trading folks, so there must have been some major sized trades going through.. .You know, if it smells like the Fed Heads, and Walks like the Fed Heads, and talks like the Fed Heads, then it must have been The Fed Heads doing to the buying! I’m just saying…
In the overnight markets last night… The dollar buying was light, but the BBDXY did gain 1 index point overnight, so we start our day today with the BBDXY at 1,197… The euro is back above 1.17, for now, and the rest of the currencies have held their gains VS the dollar, but have stopped gaining VS the dollar, for now, that is… The Euro Wannabes continue to be well bid, and that’s a good sign… So, how’s your diversification of your investment portfolio going? Gold has given back the $12 it gained yesterday, in the early trading this morning, and Silver is up 13-cents to start the day…
The price of Oil has slipped back to the $67 handle, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield is 4.34% to start today…
Well, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) had been rumored to be ready to cut rates at their next meeting, but in a surprising move the RBNZ left rates unchanged yesterday, and that took some of the pressure off the currency (kiwi) and allowed it to climb back over the .60-cent level…
Yesterday, I talked about Copper and how the POTUS had announced a 50% tariff on imports, and that Copper’s price had skyrocketed… Well, there was no backing off of the announcement yesterday, so Copper’s price continued to rise, and ended the day at $5.61… I had lamented yesterday that a rising Copper price will make EVERYTHING go higher in price… But don’t let that get in the way of a good story… I shake my head in disbelief…
Yesterday, the Fed Heads released their FOMC meeting minutes from their last meeting, and guess what? The Fed Heads are confused! No way, C’mon Chuck tell us another one! All kidding aside, here’s ZeroHedge.com with their thought on the FOMC Meeting Minutes: “Since the last FOMC meeting (June 18th), which saw a hawkish tilt to the dots (with Fed members notably divided – nearly as many participants anticipated no rate cuts this year as expected two), we have seen stronger-than-expected jobs data, constant diatribes from the president that ‘too late’ Powell should be cutting rates, and some tariff developments that supported Powell’s pause.
Stocks have melted up since the FOMC meeting (even as macro has weakened – bad news is good news)…
…while crude was clubbed like a baby seal (Israel-Iran ‘peace’) as bonds have been very modestly bid against dollar and gold weakness…
Rate-cut odds have risen modestly for 2025 since The FOMC meetings (two full cuts priced in, but July off the table) but are well down from pre-payrolls levels…
And both ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ data has weakened relative to expectations since the last FOMC…”
Chuck again… the article goes on to talk about how the Fed Heads are divided on their outlook for inflation from the tariffs, with some of the Fed Heads talking about stagflation…
Confusing I know, but that’s their mantra… Confuse, and keep the markets guessing…
The POTUS doubled down on his attack on Copper yesterday, when he reminded everyone that the 50% tariffs on Copper will begin on August 1… That’s 3 weeks away! Oh, and what did the price of Copper do after traders heard that? It rallied again, and starts today at $5.60
In our world of Opposites, bad news is good for prices, and vice versa… And it’s not just in the U.S…. Take Switzerland for example… They debased their currency last month with a rate cut, and then went on to talk about how if they had to take rates to negative, they would have no qualms about doing so… That should have deep-sixed the franc, but instead since the rate announcement the franc has been rallying… Go Figure…
I already talked about the FOMC meeting minutes above, and that was it for the U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday… Today’s Data Cupboard only has the usual Tub Thumpin’ Thursday fare of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims… And tomorrow’s Data Cupboard just has one print and it’s the Monthly Federal Budget data… That should be something!
To recap… The dollar continued to get bought a bit last night, as it gained 1-index point in the BBDXY and starts today at 1,197… Gold can’t find a good strong bid these days, but that’ doesn’t mean the Gold rally is over, it just means this is a consolodation period… Even the World Gold Council thinks the price of Gold will get back to rising… Copper is still rallying on tariffs news, and Chuck talks about the Opposites effect that has inflitrated the markets these days…
For What It’s Worth… A lot of traders are puzzled about the tariffs on Gold & Silver Bullion, and this is the reason why… This article can be found here: Whether 145% or 10%, tariff uncertainty is enough to stop U.S. gold and silver imports, distort the metals market at all levels – Experts | Kitco News
Or, here’s your snippet: ” Gold prices have pulled back since the United States and China announced the lowering of trade tariffs for 90 days amid ongoing negotiations. But whether tariffs today are 145%, 30%, or 10%, the uncertainty gripping U.S. trade continues to make meaningful importing activities impossible. And despite early indications that precious metals would be exempt from Trump’s tariffs, trade activity in the sector is far from normal.
Josh Phair is the CEO of Scottsdale Mint. He said that while the headline may be ‘Gold and Silver Imports are Tariff-Free’, the reality is not nearly so simple.
“They said that bullion is exempted,” Phair told Kitco News. “But if we start looking at a lot of the tariff codes, everyone’s going to need to know exactly what is considered bullion, because in our industry we call coins bullion, like from Perth Mint, for example, but that actually is legal tender. It’s a monetary bullion product.”
Phair said it’s not a straightforward process to determine whether something is tariffed or not, especially when it fits into two or more categories.
“It looks like we’ve got some clarity on a piece of it, but a lot of people are waiting to know everything,” he said. “What nobody wants is to bring in a $10 million shipment of something and get slapped with $1 million-plus in taxes. It feels like the whole world is waiting for clarity.”
Chuck Again… I would agree with Mr. Phair on this… I’ll keep you updated on this, but if tariffs do become part of the Precious Metals trade, then some real changes in the prices of these metals will occur… I’m just saying…
Market Prices 7/10/2025: American Style: A$ .6555, kiwi.6015, C$ .7309, euro 1.1715, sterling 1.3576, Swiss $1.2569, European Style: rand 17.7530, krone 10.0742, SEK 9.5144, forint 340.44, koruna 21.0294, RUB 77.79, yen 146.36, sing 1.2779, HKD 7.8500, INR 85.64, China 7.1750, peso 18.63, BRL 5.5729, BBDXY 1,197, Dollar Index 97.53, Oil $67.80, 10-year 4.34%, Silver $36.68, Platinum $1,352.00, Palladium $1,146.00, Copper $5.68, and Gold… $3,324
That’s it for today and this week… You know I’m so happy that I decided to take 3-day weekends every week a few years ago, and that no one had a major problem with it… Some readers weren’t happy with me, but they got over it, with time… I would tell them, “you know, I AM RETIRED?” Well, semi-retired I guess, since I do wake up with the farmers 4 days a week to write… I’ve gained about 7 lbs since I started being able to keep down food again… I don’t like gaining weight, but the doctors sure do… not to the weight I was in 2020… but from the weight I was 4 weeks ago! I was pushing the weight loss envelope too far 4 weeks ago anyway! Yes, takes us to the finish line today with their song: Long Distance Runaround… Yes, music was always the best to listen to with headphones on… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and will continue to Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler