- currencies and metals rally overnight!
- No jobs report, no problemo…
Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! This will be a short week for me, as I will be boarding a plane on Thursday to head to San Diego… I’m excited to go to San Diego again, I have nothing but good memories from the area…The Del Coronado, the zoo, the gas lamp district… I’ve stayed in La Jolla, too… OK… enough of the travel agent talk… The baseball playoffs started their next round… Of course, the Dodger and Yankees are a part of them. I like The Blue Jays… We’ll see, eh? Neil Young greets me this morning with his song: Southern Man
Of course, that song by Neil Young, brought about a number one hit for Lynyrd Synyrd: Sweet Home Alabama…
Well, Thursday every week, seems to be “the designated day to take the metals down”… Jere’s Ed Steer and his thoughts on the movement… “One must have been pretty much born last night not to know exactly what happened yesterday — and it certainly had nothing to do with ‘profit taking’ …as no profit-maximizing seller ever sell like that…EVER!!!
With gold about to break above $3,900 spot…and above that mark already in the December contract, gold’s current front month — and silver at $48.01 on the ‘ask’ side at its 9:30 a.m. EDT high tick…the collusive commercial traders of whatever stripe put the hammer down.” – Ed Steer
Chuck again… Well, Gold finished Thursday down $9 but $40 off its high on the day, and Silver finished down 32-cents, and $1.04 off its high on the day… The SPTs saw these two metals heading to the moon, and rushed to deal with them… And they did!
Friday saw Gold & Silver rebound without the SPTs.. Gold gained $20 to close the week at $3,887, and Silver gained 99-cents to close the week at $48.09… The SPTs were absent yesterday, they must’ve thought they had a done a good job of scaring investors away… But NOOOOOOO! You can’t keep a good investment down!
The dollar ended the week about the same level it started the week with the BBDXY at 1,201… The currencies seem to be stuck in the mud with the dollar hanging on to the 1,200 level in the BBDXY, for life… They’ll pick up once the dollar bugs give up the ship and the dollar does a further dive into the weak trend. That’s my opinion, and of course I could be wrong… But when has that happened? As if, Chuck, you’ve been wrong many times!
The price of Oil ended the week trading with a $60 handle… The supply of Oil is going to increase and that has the Oil traders scared… The 10-year Treasury bumped a little higher on Friday and ended the week trading with a 4.12% yield…
Before I go any further this morning, I wanted to point out something that appeared on YAHOO Finance, let’s see if you’ve heard this from someone before…
“No jobs report leaves Fed flying blind. Markets still expect rate cuts”… So, a little reminder of what I wrote last Thursday… “This comes at a time when the Fed Heads are making rate cut decisions to shore up the labor market… Without reports, what will the Fed Heads do? Shoot from the hip, that’s what I think they’ll do… Cut rates blindly.. Oh brother!” From A Pfennig For Your Thoughts 10/2/25… Now, you don’t think that Yahoo Finance reads the Pfennig do you?
In the overnight markets last night… All hell has been released! The dollar is being bought like funnel cakes at a State Fair, and Gold has risen last the $3,900 figure! The dollar is up along with Gold? What the heck is going on here? The Gov’t is still shutdown, the U.S. debt is still $37 Trillion, inflation is still strong, and the dollar is getting bought? I wonder sometimes if the dollar bugs really understand the dire straits that the dollar is in right now? For they don’t seem to care and buying dollars is in their DNA…
Gold, like I just said is over $3,900 this morning as it has gained $50 in the early trading… I read a piece this morning that said that Wall Street is resigned to accepting Gold at $4,000, so it’s in the cards… Silver is also kicking some tail and taking names later this morning, as it is up 31-cents at $48.45… So, it’s a half good, half bad day in my mind…
The price of Copper is really ticking higher… First of all, I noticed Copper inching higher while doing the currency roundup last week… And this morning, Copper pushed past $5.00… Again, supply is real problem in Copper, and finally it’s being recorded in the price… Remember the piece that I wrote about a week or so ago regarding the problems with a coal mine in Indonesia? Well, the effects took a bit longer to get priced for Copper, but eventually they come around…
The price of Oil is still trading with a $60 handle… Here it’s a glut of supply that affected the price of this commodity… Well, the thought of a glut of supply that is, our friends (NOT!) at OPEC haven’t actually increased their production just yet, but they will and the Oil traders are looking ahead…
The 10-year Treasury starts the week trading with a 4.15% yield… Thats up 5 basis points since Friday, so the bond boys are looking at the Gov’t shutdown like it’s going to gon on for some time, I think…
The good folks at GATA sent me this note on Friday and I held onto it all weekend to include this morning… Here’s a snippet of the article: “Morgan Stanley just blinked.
After decades of worshiping at the altar of 60/40 (stocks/bonds), they shifted to 60/20/20 (stocks/bonds/gold).
Gold now has a real seat at the table.
Nobody likes to go first — not in markets, not in start-ups, not in fashion.
But once the ice breaks, the floodgates can open.
And MS isn’t fringe.
They’re blue-chip.
With a global reach and balance sheet that commands attention.”
Well, what can go wrong here? A Big Casino Bank / Brokerage firm like Morgan Stanley has told all its clients that their investment portfolio mix is wrong, and they now need to allocate a portion of the portfolio to Gold… Isn’t that something that Me & Frank Trotter were telling people at investment shows and in writing, over a decade ago? Back then Gold was climbing and only about $1,000… and now that Gold has increased in price to near $4,000 M.S. Is jumping on the band wagon…
Oh well… can you blame them? But I ask the question, where were they 20 years ago, or 10 or 15 years ago?
Circling back to the dollar for a minute… The dollar seemed to be stuck around 1,200 in the BBDXY… I think that the dollar bugs just didn’t know what to expect from the Gov’t shutdown… I could tell them, but would they listen? NO! The underlying trend for the dollar is weak, and that’s where it will go (weaker) when the dollar bugs realize what’s going on… It may take them a bit; they’re not exactly propeller heads… I’m just saying…
Well, there was no Jobs Jamboree last Friday, no joy in Mudville… I said last week that the Fed was flying blind… But are they? “The September employment report was unlikely to bring good news, based on a variety of other public and private surveys of the jobs market.
The U.S. economy was forecast to show a paltry 51,000 increase in new jobs before the employment report was postponed. The unemployment rate was expected to hover at the current level of 4.3%
he Fed Heads know and we know that: Businesses are no longer hiring aggressively. Job creation has slowed sharply since the spring and employment even fell in June for the first time in 4½ years. In short, it’s not a good time to look for a job.
“The chill in the labor market is unlikely to thaw for workers anytime soon, and you don’t necessarily need the survey data to tell you that,” said Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet.” – courtesy of MarketWatch
The U.S Data Cupboard does not exist while the Gov’t is shutdown… All we have on the docket is a bunch of Fed Heads speakers this week… Spreading their lies, I might add… I read another piece this past weekend where they used the phrase that the Fed was “flying blind”… Another Pfennig Reader, I guess! HA!
To recap… Gold & Sliver saw SPTs on Thursday last week, but recovered on Friday, and Gold is within’ spittin’ distance of $4,000… The dollar seems to stuck around 1,200, for now… Chuck thinks that the dollar bugs don’t know what to expect with the Gov’t shutdown… I could tell them, but would they listen? NO! Morgan Stanley told clients to allocate 20% of their investment portfolios in Gold… Very interesting change of heart by M.S. Eh?
For What It’s Worth… Longtime readers know that I call the Consumer Confidence Index “STUPID”, and that is because historically, the index is simply a report on how Consumers feel about the stock market… But this report says that has changed and we need to pay attention to the report going forward… It can be found here: US consumer confidence declines again as Americans fret over prices, job market – ABC News
Or, here’s your snippet: “U.S. consumer confidence declined again in September as Americans’ pessimism over inflation and the weakening job market continued to grow.
The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell by 3.6 points to 94.2 in September, down from August’s 97.8. That’s a bigger drop than analysts were expecting and the lowest reading since April, when President Donald Trump rolled out his sweeping tariff policy.
A measure of Americans’ short-term expectations for their income, business conditions and the job market fell to 73.4, remaining well below 80, the marker that can signal a recession ahead. Consumers’ assessments of their current economic situation dipped by 7 points to 125.4.
Write-in responses to the survey showed that references to prices and inflation rose this month, regaining its top position as consumers’ main concern about the economy. Mentions of tariffs declined this month but remain elevated, the Conference Board said.
Government data released earlier this month showed that inflation rose in August as the price of gas, groceries and airfares jumped.
Consumer prices increased 2.9% last month from a year earlier, the Labor Department said, up from 2.7% the previous month and the biggest jump since January. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices rose 3.1%, the same as in July.
While unemployment and layoffs remain historically low, there has been noticeable deterioration in the labor market this year and mounting evidence that people are having difficulty finding jobs.”
Chuck again… So, things change, and I adapt, what do you do sir? And I came across this piece by YAHOO Finance: “Hiring plans among US employers for the year through September were at their lowest since 2009, according to a new report, underscoring the labor market’s stagnant state.
The weaker planned headcount was largely fueled by a steep drop in seasonal hiring announcements, the global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said in a report Thursday.”
Oh, me, oh my…
Market prices 10/6/2025: American Style: A$.6599, kiwi .5821, C$ .7163, euro 1.1676, sterling 1.3429, Swiss $1.2531, European Style: rand 17.2446, krone 9.9569, SEK 9. 4103, forint 333.42, zloty 3.6421, koruna 20.8217, RUB 83.15, yen 150.26, sing 1.2936, HKD 7.7835, INR 88.78, China 7.1214, peso 18.43, BRL 5.3372, BBDXY 1,206, Dollar Index 97.57, Oil $60.88, 10-year 4.15%, Silver $48.36, Platinum $1,613.00, Palladium $1,291.00, Copper $5.05, and Gold… $3,937
That’s it for today… Tonight, the moon will be a Super Moon, and a Harvest Moon all in one! I recall the first time I ever saw a Super Moon, and I thought, is the moon going to run into earth? Silly me, eh? There must have been some alcohol involved! I spent Saturday sitting outside watching a ton of football and baseball games, it was channel surfing at its best! Then we attended our subdivision’s Octoberfest… it was good to catch up with some of our original homeowners… Again, no Pfennig on Thursday this week, and Monday of next week… I’m NOT taking my laptop to San Diego! Chicago takes us to the finish line today with their great version of the song: I’m A Man… the late guitarist, Terry Kath, really shows how good he was in this song… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler