- the dollar rallies on Wed. as The STUPID CPI remains sticky
- Chuck goes through the national debt…
Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, by virtue of Italy beating Mexico last night, the U.S. Baseball team will go to the knockout round and will play Friday VS Canada… Hmmm, that sounds familiar! I think it’s time to go for the trifecta! Some really good baseball has been played so far in this World Baseball Classic, especially since it’s so early in March! It’s raining right now, but the rain is supposed to stop for about 6 hours, more than time enough to get in my beloved Cardinals Baseball game today… The late GREAT Leon Russell greets me this morning with his song: Back To The Island
The U.S. dollar got some love yesterday, and the BBDXY gained 5 index points, the euro lost the 1.16 handle and that’s about all you need to know about how the rest of the currencies are doing…. There are a couple of the Petrol Currencies that have held ground… the Norwegian krone, and the Brazilian real are the two Petrol currencies that have held their ground and not lost too much to the dollar this morning…
Gold & Silver never got the chance to reverse their early morning losses yesterday, the SPTS were out in force, and the short timers that bought Gold & Silver for a short term gain, were the culprits that caused Gold to lose $15 on the day and close at $5,175, and Silver took a ride on Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride and ended up losing $2.51 and closing at $85.57…
They say that Gold’s selling came from fading bets that the Fed Heads will be cutting interest rates… I think that soon traders and investors will get over that thought and get back to buying Gold… I’m just saying…
My friend, and editor of his newsletter, 5 Bullets, Dave Gonigam talked about the problems with “private Credit” yesterday… And then I came across this article that talks about how the private credit problems will lead to more investors fleeing to Gold…. A safe haven, if you will… but you don’t have to take my word on it, here’s a very brief snippet from Kitco.com: “Don’t expect gold prices to fall anytime soon, as risks building in private credit markets threaten to spill over into the broader global economy and boost gold demand once again, according to one market analyst.”
Chuck Again…. The price of Oil rallied on news that even though promised, no ships are being escorted through the Strait of Hormuz…. Oil ended the day with a $92 handle… I wouldn’t get too upset with the price of Oil right now… There are many days of ships attempting to get through the Strait before we see Oil settle down…
And the 10-year Treasury saw lots of selling, on the STUPID CPI (and the real inflation rate) and the bond ended the day with a 4.20% yield…
In the overnight markets last night…. The dollar slipped a bit and the BBDXY starts today at 1,204… I really don’t see what the pundits are saying about the STUPID CPI… Most of what I’m reading is that: inflation has fallen… What? Really? They have the intestinal fortitude to say that out loud? Well, I’ve said enough about eh ineptness of the BLS, so I’ll move on…
Gold & Silver try to mount the rally horse again this morning, with Gold up $6 and Silver up $2.21 I’m really surprised by Silver’s rebound; it seems that Silver gets whacked and then comes back and says, may I have another? Not really, but it sure seems that way!
The price of Oil slipped a buck overnight and starts today with a $91 handle, and the 10-year Treasury remained trading with a 4.20% yield overnight…
I’m going to spend a bit of time this morning on our debt accumulation… First, this from Fortune, which wasn’t behind their paywall…. “The U.S. Treasury’s borrowing showed no signs of slowing as the U.S. headed deeper into fiscal year 2026, with the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reporting that another $1 trillion was added to the federal deficit in the first five months of the year.
The monthly budget review from the CBO, updated to February 2026 and released yesterday, showed that the government is estimated to have borrowed $308 billion last month alone.
Of course, with more borrowing comes higher interest costs on the debt. Between October 2025 (when the 2026 fiscal year started) and February, the Treasury spent an additional $31 billion on net interest on public debt, compared to the prior year. As a result, in just five months, the Treasury forked out a total of $433 billion to service public debt, which is now nearing $38.9 trillion.”
Chuck again… CBO also said, “This cannot be sustainable’: The U.S. borrowed $50 billion a week for the past five months, the CBO says”
This is getting ridiculous… our deficit spending that is…. I’m reminded that Einstein once said, “When you owe more than you can pay, it’s a powerful force for bankruptcy.” if course he was talking about individuals, but this can play in this sandbox too!
The taxpayer money that’s being spent on debt servicing is growing and growing and growing with nothing to stop the bleeding…. soon, I think we, as a country, will have to print more money to pay our debt servicing costs.. Really long-time readers know that I’ve been shouting from the rooftops for a generation about our national debt… I used to have a conniption fit over a $6 Trillion debt… And that was many moons ago!
But congress has no internal guts to do what’s necessary… They have to cut spending so much that we book a surplus in our year budget, and then repeat it year after year, until this debt looks like something that we, as a country, can afford…. Because we certainly can’t afford what we have now $39 Trillion!
OK, I’ll get off my soapbox now…. circling the wagons back to energy prices and rate cuts, for a moment… this from Bloomberg.com “Despite the prospect of releasing oil reserves, continued uncertainty translates into continued upside risk for oil prices, and that translates into a Fed that will remain cautious about cutting interest rates,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.”
Chuck again… the new to-be chairman of the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, Kevin Warsh, will have a tough row to hoe with getting his fellow Fed Heads to go along with a rate cut… so, we have that to look forward to, eh?
The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday has the STUPID CPI that showed erroneously that is that inflation grew .3% in Feb and remained at +2.5% year on year… Those numbers are a worthless as a handbrake on a canoe! There was no report on scheduled Fed Budget Balance, as the cooks were still massaging the numbers to report…
Today’s Data Cupboard the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and the U.S. Trade balance for Feb… This was before the judge said no mas on the tariffs, so this should be a credit… I’m still wondering if the U.S. is going to rebate the tariffs they took in… I’m just asking…
To recap… Currencies got sold, metals got sold, stocks got sold, and bonds got sold yesterday… The dollar got bought! Right now, the feeling in the markets is that the Fed won’t be able to cut rates, and that has the dollar getting bought… We’ll see how long that lasts… And Chuck goes the whole 9 yards on our debt this morning…
For What It’s Worth… Well, yesterday the BLS issued their STUPID CPI report and it showed no change in inflation… But, as I’ve explained for years, the BLS uses hedonic adjustments to make the inflation rate lower… And that’s what this article is all about and can be found here: Opinion: The real inflation rate? Try 3.3% — and that’s before the jump in gas prices. – MarketWatch
Or, here’s your snippet: “The federal government’s publication of the latest consumer inflation data saw Wall Street once again engaging in its favorite activity — spraying BS as far and wide as possible, and on an industrial scale.
Moments after the latest official data dropped, my inbox began filling up with comments from strategists so vapid that I could almost hear my brain cells crying out in agony and dying while I read them. These comments will soon be replaced by artificial-intelligence robots with no — I repeat, no — loss of utility.
Forget the “official” or trailing 12-month inflation rate. Yes, those are the numbers Wall Street likes to talk about. They aren’t just stale; to use Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy’s excellent new phrase, they’re as “dead as fried chicken.” They compare prices last month with prices 13 months ago. Who cares? In the real world, where normies live, all that people care about are two things: What’s happening to prices now, and what’s likely to happen next.
And on these questions, the latest data are either ominous (if you are an optimist) or bad (if you aren’t.)
Here are the key takeaways.
At the latest count, inflation is actually speeding up — it’s getting worse, not better. Last month, consumer prices rose at an annualized rate of 3.3%, the latest official data show. A month earlier, that rate was just 2.1%. Over the past three months, prices have risen at an annual rate of 3.0% — the highest three-monthly reading since October.
That figure is after applying statistical “seasonal adjustments” that have the effect of lowering the apparent inflation rate. If you look at the raw consumer-price index before applying these adjustments, prices between January and February rose at an annualized rate of 5.8%. Yes, really. Good times.”
Chuck again… The BLS calculations are BS in my opinion… Need I say more? You and I both know that inflation is stronger than the BLS tells us in their STUPID CPI report… I’m just saying…
Market Prices 3/12/2026: American Style: A$ .7134, kiwi .5904, C$ .7358, euro 1.1555, sterling 1.3389, Swiss $1.2807, European Style: rand 16.5574, krone 9.6762, SEK 9.2577, forint 335.43, zloty 3.6314, koruna 20.1189, RUB 79.16, yen 158.75, sing 1.2751, HKD 7.8269, INR 92.19, China 6.8704, peso 17.70, BRL 5.1569, BBDXY 1,204, Dollar Index 99.34, Oil $91.01, 10-year 4.20%, Silver $87.12, Platinum $2,184.00, Palladium $1,677.00, Copper $5.88, and Gold… $5,183
That’s it for today and this week… it’s been a week of lies on top of lies… You can’t believe the news that comes out about the war, inflation, the economy, etc. There are no markets, just manipulations… I stand by that statement! Well, it’s the U.S. vs Canada once more, this time in baseball… Hopefully the U.S brings their A Game! My beloved Mizzou Tigers will play the vaunted Kentucky today in the SEC Tournament… A bad draw for sure! Mizzou beat Kentucky in the early season before Kentucky got its legs under themselves… UGH! And our Billikens play on Friday in the A10 Tournament… Good luck to both teams! The Moody Blues take us to the finish line today with their song: Isn’t Life Strange… boy they hit the nail on the head with that title! I hop you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler