- the dollar rallied overnight to offset the losses the previous sessions
- The POTUS has some strong words for his enemy
Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, it took 11 innings to get the win, but my beloved Cardinals did it and beat the Mets 2-1…Of course the game could have gone on and on if MLB hadn’t come up with he stupidest rule ever, and that is putting a runner at 2nd base to start the 10th Inning… He didn’t have to earn his way there; he just was the last person to make an out the previous inning! DUMB, DUMB. DUMB! I used to kind of like extra innings because they added drama… Not any longer… UHG! Crowded House greets me this morning with their 80’s song: Don’t Dream It’s Over
Funny that song is playing after my scenario yesterday that I painted for you talked about traders waking up from a bad dream… The data that printed yesterday showed that the economy isn’t as bad as the markets thought is was, and that brought on dollar buying, and Treasury selling… The dollar recovered 2 index points yesterday, but in the overnight markets has gone hog wild again…
Gold, which was up $86 in the early trading yesterday, saw the STPs enter the market and attempt to take Gold & Silver down… Gold, which was up $159 the previous day, saw the SPTs sell Gold short to keep it from getting out of hand, as far as they are concerned, and Gold ended the day up $89 to close at $4,759. Silver saw the same type of action. Yesterday morning Silver was up to $75… and strained and strained to go higher, but the SPTs were there to cap off the gain, and Silver lost 2-cents on the day to close at $74.98… Obviously, the SPTs had more success getting Silver to drop some value, while Gold just didn’t get to get as strong as I would have thought it would have given its early morning rise…
The Price of Oil got a POTUS Shock last night when he vowed to hit Iran extremely hard to put back in the stone age in the next 2-3 weeks… Oil gained $6 to $104 yesterday evening…
And the 10-year saw the bond boys reestablish control over the bond market, and the 10-year added yield to the tune of 6 basis points to end the day at 4.36% yield… The data yesterday didn’t help bonds as it showed that no rate cuts are coming and that helped get the yields going higher again…
In the overnight markets last night… This is getting weird, just plain weird, the previous night the dollar got taken to the woodshed, but last night, the dollar rallied big time, with the BBDXY gaining 7 index points… The U.S. Data Cupboard was better than the average bear yesterday, but C’mon! This is over buying to the nth degree…. And Gold and Silver are being subjected to the thought that the better than average bear will cause the Fed Heads to hike rates instead of cut them later this year…
That thought alone gave the SPTs the green light to short the snot out of Gold & Silver this morning…. Gold is down $157, and Silver is down $4.98… There’s nowhere to hide for Gold & Silver this morning, and maybe some physical buyers will enter the market and stem the losses… I really don’t have words that I can use right here without being shut down, that explain how I feel about the SPTs and what they are doing this morning…
The price of Oil continued to gain overnight and starts our day trading with a $109 handle… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield starts today at 4.35%
So, the POTUS told everyone that the war will end in 2-3 weeks, but in the meantime, he’s going to hit Iran extremely hard and send back to the sone age… And those words were not what the markets were expecting to hear… I like when a POTUS talks strongly… But only if he carries through with his strong words… So, I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see….
The markets will no doubt react negatively to those words… I’m just saying… Until it’s all over for good, and then the markets will settle down… Until then we’ll continue to see the dollar get whipsawed up and then back down, the price of Oil goes up and down, the yield on the 10-year tries to figure out which way to do, and the metals be up one day and down the next…
Well, Alasdair MacCleod was at it again and this time he’s saying that we’re in big dookie… let’s listen in: “he explains why the real story is not only war or oil, but the chain reaction from energy disruption to higher bond yields, collapsing credit, and a broader monetary crisis.”
Chuck again… The collapsing credit is the thing I’ve been tracking… much like ai did for the housing crisis in 2007/08… The whole financial system that we use is based on credit… So, keep an eye out for articles that talk about the collapsing credit…
You know, I get the willies every time I head the Fed/ Cabal/Cartel, or the Treasury, or even the White House laud that they have defeated inflation…. Because that’s all lies…. Sure, inflation came down from near 9% to the 3% figure now, but that’s taking out this, that and the other thing when calculating inflation… what they should do in my opinion is use Money Supply as an inflation measure… And the Money Supply in the US. Is soaring! In February of this year, we saw the all time record size of Money Supply as Money Supply reached an all time high of 22667.30 USD Billion in February of 2026.
Here’s Doug Casey with his thoughts on this: “People have a natural inclination to blame the producers—the butcher, the baker, and the gasoline maker—for higher prices. But that’s a huge mistake. Higher prices (barring a natural catastrophe that destroys real wealth) are 100% caused by increases in the money supply. It’s perverse that producers are blamed for price inflation while the Fed and the government are lauded for fighting inflation. The public’s perception is the exact opposite of reality.”
Chuck again… Thanks to Doug and his International Man newsletter…
What’s the reason for the increase in Money Supply? The economy is stagnating and the Fed Heads continue to say that their are in a tightening time… As I’ve always said to you… They lie to us…
I have a further discussion on Money Supply in the FWIW section today… so stay tuned same bat time, same bat channel…
The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the delayed Feb Retail Sales, that I said would be good, not great but good… Well, the data printed at +.6% better than the average bear… The ADP Employment Report showed that 69,000 jobs were added in March… That’s not really a great number, but it was better than the Feb print of 39,000 and that got the markets all lathered up… Not me, but I don’t count… And the ISM manufacturing Index printed a good number for the data set as it was 52.7%… Remember any number above 50 represents gains in Manufacturing. I scratch my bald head over this data set… Factory Orders, and Durable Goods Orders printed bad numbers at last print… So, how did Manufacturing be so strong? Don’t tell me that now even this data set is being manipulated!
The Petrol Currencies have hung in there VS the dollar this morning on the rise in the price of Oil… This dollar strength is giving me a rash… Someone out there in dollar bug land come to your senses! Serenity NOW!
We have the usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims today in the Data Cupboard… And the Trade Report for Feb… This report was from a period prior to the Supremes telling the POTUS that he can’t place the high tariffs on imports… I think that the POTUS is continuing to implement the tariffs, but that’s a story for another day…
To recap… Well, yesterday it appeared that all was back to normal again with the dollar getting sold and the metals gaining… But that didn’t last overnight, as the dollar was bought hand over fist, and the metals are getting sold to start our day today… The Data that printed yesterday was better than the average bear, but that was enough to lather up the markets to thinking that interest rates are going up instead of down later this year and that thought caused some major moves in the markets…
For What it’s Worth… this was taken from a posting by the Mises organization, and therefore I don’t need to tell you that it’s real economics… and it can be found here; Money Supply Growth Surges to Multi-Year High as The Fed Loosens Policy | Mises Institute
Or, here’s your snippet: “In recent months, Federal Reserve officials have repeatedly referred to monetary policy as restrictive. In September, Jerome Powell said policy was “clearly restrictive,” and in November, New York Fed President John Williams stated “I still view the current monetary policy level as moderately tight…”
Well, it may be that current policy is “restrictive” compared to, say, the policies of Bernanke and Yellen. But recent data on the money supply suggests that the money supply in recent months is finding plenty of room to increase rapidly, in spite of what Fed officials say.
For example, the money supply has increased every month for the past four months, and as some of the highest rates we’ve seen in years. Moreover, when measured year-over-year, the money supply has accelerated over the past three months and is now at the highest rate of growth seen in 40 months—or since July of 2022.
While the money supply largely flatlined through much of the mid-2025, growth has clearly accelerated since August of this year.
During October, year-over-year growth in the money supply was at 4.76 percent. That’s up from September year-over-year increase of 4.06 percent. Money supply growth is also up sizably compared to October of last year when year-over-year growth was 1.27 percent.
In October, the total money supply again rose above $20 trillion for the first time since January of 2023, and grew by half a trillion dollars from August to October.
In month-to-month growth, August, September, and October all posted some of the largest growth rates we’ve seen since 2022, rising 1.18 percent, 1.4 percent, and 1.14 percent, respectively. topping off four months of growth.
The money supply metric used here—the “true,” or Rothbard-Salerno, money supply measure (TMS)—is the metric developed by Murray Rothbard and Joseph Salerno, and is designed to provide a better measure of money supply fluctuations than M2. (The Mises Institute now offers regular updates on this metric and its growth.)
Historically, M2 growth rates have often followed a similar course to TMS growth rates, but M2 has even outpaced TMS growth in eleven of the last twelve months. In October, the M2 growth rate, year over year, was 4.63 percent. That’s up from September’s growth rate of 4.47 percent. October’s growth rate was also up from October 2024’s rate of 2.97 percent.
Although year-over-year and month-to-month growth rates moderated during the summer—and even fell substantially during 2023 and early 2024, money-supply totals are again rapidly heading upward. M2 is now at the highest level it’s ever been, topping $22.2 trillion. TMS has not yet returned to its 2022 peak, but is now at a 34-month high.”
Chuck Again… it would have taken me eons to explain all that, so I thank the Mises Institute for doing the heavy lifting here..
Market Prices 4/2/2026: American Style: A$ .6872, kiwi .5709, C$ .7189, euro 1.1526, sterling 1.3208, Swiss $1.2512, European Style: rand 17.0006, krone 9.7469, SEK 9.5021, forint 333.41, zloty 3.799, koruna 21.2955, RUB 80.37, yen 159.61, sing 1.2871, HKD 7.8256, INR 93.10, China 6.8985, peso 17.94, BRL 5.1822, BBDXY 1,217, Dollar Index 100.16, Oil $109.81, 10-year 4.35%, Silver $70.62, Platinum $1,924.00, Palladium $1.475.00, Copper $5.52, and Gold… $4,608
That’s it for today… Well, they got the game in after all the morning rain and then threats of more rain as the day went on… My Cardinals start the season 4-2 and now go to Detroit for 3 games… We’ll see how they play on the road in an unfriendly environment! Tomorrow is Good Friday… I recall always taking that day off, and now I don’t have to! Our Blues lost in OT to the Kings in LA last night… Thus, weakening their chances for a playoff run.. And The FINAL FOUR play tomorrow, should be good games as the favored team in each game have 1.5 pts in the betting rooms… That’s Tight! I really haven’t been sleeping too well lately, I guess I have a lot on my mind… I’ve got to change that ! Well, it’s 80’s day on the iPod as the Outfield take us to the finish line today with their song: Your Love I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a very Blessed Easter on Sunday… And Please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler