- metals get hammered yesterday and overnight
- The RBNZ left their OCR unchanged
Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! My beloved Cardinals just finished a 3-game trip to Milwaukee and came home having lost all 3 games! Yesterdays game was a real heartbreaker… I’m just saying… The U.S. sent more missiles into Iran yesterday, claiming self-defense… I doubt that goes over well with the Peace negotiators… Golden Earring greets me this morning with their song: Radar Love…
Well, the dollar finally moved off of the 1,201 figure yesterday, it didn’t light anyone’s fire, but it did gain 2 index points to finish yesterday at 1,203… Gold & Silver just are having a very difficult time finding a strong bid these days… Yesterday was Gold lose $52 and close at $4,456 and Silver lost $2.32 to close at $74.56… The war was back on as far as the targets that the missiles landed were concerned, and that moved traders to buy dollars, and sell Gold (Silver)…
It did not move traders of Oil as the price of Oil dipped below $90 at one point yesterday, before finally closing with a $90 handle…
The 10-year Treasury was sold and its yield rose to 4.50%… Remember, the 10-year is used to price just about everything financial…
In the overnight markets last night…The Dollar saw some buying, but the BBDXY remained at 1,203 to start our day today… Gold & Silver are getting hammered again in the early trading today, This selling is giving me a rash… I must say! The Bullion dealers remain steadfast in their opinion that Gold will reach $5,500 this year, so there’s that…
The price of Oil remained trading with a $90 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury slipped a bit and trades at 4.49% to start our day today…
Kitco.com had this story last night: “Gold remains the anchor of the new commodity cycle, and the yellow metal’s secular bull market is still intact despite the recent volatility in precious metals, according to Doug Moglia, macro and market strategist at Rockefeller Global Investment Management.
And to further the conversation, Kitco.com also had this article: Silver will reach $100 but its stay there won’t be long…
I just don’t understand why these guys say these things and then register them with, “And my company is very long this asset and we need to sell it”… And one way to get people to buy it is given them lofty figures for values… When in the long run, buying Gold & Silver isn’t about the rise in prices, it’s about reserving wealth, and hedging VS a fall in the dollar… The price gains are icing on the cake..
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand met on Tuesday night (for us) and left their OCR (official Cash Rate) unchanged at 2.25%… New Zealand’s consumer inflation Is currently at 3.1%, which even using my old math skills is more than the RBNZ’s 2% target… I recall when they implemented the 2% target, many moons ago, the Gov. Of the RBNZ would be fired if Inflation got above 2%… I guess they’ve become the Fed/Cabal/Cartel of the S. Pacific… 2% is not a target, it’s a Suggestion!
Well, the fragility of the idea that a peace agreement is in the offing, is showing just how silly the idea of one being worked out now is just that… silly… Traders, however, are still holding on to the idea of a Peace Agreement being worked out soon… Eventually, their ideas will be ruined, and they will also become jaded toward the dollar, and rebuy the Gold they sold… That’s how I see this coming together… Just my opinion, but one that’s based on reality…
Like this brief rally by the dollar… Ok, let’s just talk about the facts that we know of… Interest rates are going to go higher, not lower, but will that help the dollar? I have an opinion on that… But I’ll save it for now… Interest rates may be going higher later this year, but for now and the near future, they will remain where they are…The economic data has been iffy if not disappointing… The debt servicing cost (interest rate expense) continues to rise and there’s about $9 Trillion of lower yielding bonds coming due this year and will have to be refinanced at a much higher yield that previously, thus upping the debt servicing cost.. This will put tons of pressure on the Gov’t to buy bonds and print money… We all know what that procedure caused the last time we were in this situation…
Yes, I’m jaded, but then a use logic and reason to make my opinions, and I think that they are far more based on truth than what Wall Street uses… I’m just saying…
The U.S. Data Cupboard today is chock-full-o-data after being emptied out yesterday… First up is the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, then comes the second revision of 1st QTR GDP, which should remain around 2%… Then we’ll see the color of Personal Income and Spending for April… It’ll probably show that we spent more than we made once again… Then we’ll have the PCE, which should show that the Fed Heads presumably favorite form of Inflation Calculation has gained in April…
Then we’ll see the April print of Durable Goods Orders… No Capital Goods Orders again though… And finally, we’ll see the New Home Sales for April… ( it’s nice that we don’t have to deal with past dated prints because of the Gov’t shutdown)
To recap… The dollar finally moved off of 1,201 and gained 2 index points in the BBDXY… The U.S. fired some missiles into Iran, and that put the kyboshes on the idea that a Peace Deal was coming soon… Chuck does his best to show that the dollar’s brief rally is a house built on Straw… and we all know what the wolf did to the pig’s house of Straw!
For What It’s Worth… I was looking for something else on my phone yesterday when I came across this article about the economy, and thought, this is FWIW worthy! You can find the article here: Economy to See Negative Growth Shock, Sticky Inflation, JPMorgan Warns – Business Insider
Or, here’s your snippet: “Economists at JPMorgan said they’ve officially taken a “Goldilocks scenario” — an ideal situation for markets where inflation cools and the economy continues to expand — off the table. The bank says to blame the Iran war, with the latest surge in inflation likely to spark a negative growth shock.
In a note to clients on Friday, economists said they believe higher energy prices could push core inflation past 3%, which was the bank’s “long-standing forecast” for global core inflation at the start of the year.
Rising transportation and input costs stemming from higher oil prices could also help push core goods inflation past 2%, above the Fed’s long-running price target, they estimated.
The bank trimmed its global economic growth forecast by around a quarter of a percentage point. It pointed to the possible knock-on effects of higher prices, such as higher interest rates, subdued consumer spending, and consequent weakness in the job market.
“Risks are elevated that an energy price shock squeezes household purchasing power and depresses business sentiment, raising the specter of a negative growth shock raising unemployment rates,” a team led by Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan’s chief economist, wrote.”
Chuck again… So, JPMorgan believes that negative growth is in our future, and I would have to believe them… How about you?
Market Prices 5/28/2026: American Style: A$.7120, kiwi .5873, C$ .7216. euro 1.1610, sterling 1.3392, Swiss $1.2662, European Style: rand 16.3949, krone 9.2986, SEK 9.3185, forint 306.05, zloty 3.6479, koruna 20.9210, RUB 71.02, yen 159.40, sing 1.2744, HKD 7.8326, INR 95.70, China 6.7803, peso 17.33, BRL 5.0591, BBDXY 1,203, Dollar Index 99.35, Oil $90.26, 10-year 4.49%, Silver $73.67, Platinum $1,899.00, Palladium $1,385.00, Copper $6.32, and Gold… $4,401
That’s it for today and this week… Remember that next Tuesday there will be no Pfennig as I’ll be at the hospital for my oncologist appt and infusion… I’ll also be getting an infusion of iron… The doctor is still concerned that my iron is still low… I do tire out very easily these days, so there’s that! My beloved Cardinals now come limping home to play the Cubs… This is HUGE as the Cubs have beaten us like a rental mule the last couple of years… Now, is the time for vengeance! Marvin Gaye takes us to the finish line today with his song: Let’s Get It On… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler