March 11, 2019
* The dollar rallies despite an awful jobs report!
* Gold is topped at the $1,300 border…
Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well… here we go again… The U.S. Jobs report on Friday was horribly weak, but the dollar rallied… Go figure! I watched my beloved Cardinals win and lose a game since we last talked, and they still can’t, in my opinion, that is, hit the ball… UGH! My wife tells me not to worry, that’s it’s “spring training”… But I know better… this is where hitters get to hit against top pitchers for just a couple of innings, that then the 3rd team comes in, the guys that are destined for the minor leagues… And yet, no hitting… UGH! Oh well, it is what it is… It’s still warm and full of sun here, so I’ll sit there and watch the noodle sticks come up, while basking in the sun! Scott McKenzie greets me this morning with his hit song: San Francisco… If you’re going to San Francisco, be sure to wear some flowers in your hair…
Well, I already told you that on Friday, the dollar rallied in the face of a very weak jobs report… For the month of February, the U.S. only added 20,000 jobs in February… That’s right I said 20,000 jobs… And to make that even more weak… The BLS added 137,000 jobs after the surveys to get to 20,000, jobs… So, in my book, the U.S. lost 157,000 jobs in February… But that didn’t stop dollar bugs from buying dollars… The stock market here in the U.S. has been bleeding badly, and yet, the dollar bugs are dancing on the tables…
So… I would be telling customers of my old place of business that they should be using this drop in the euro, as a buying opportunity… Of course, the legal beagles would make he say, “of course that’s my opinion and I could be wrong”…. Now that I’m no longer associated with anyone with a trading desk… I will just say, that this is just really strange to me… The Gold traders pushed the price of Gold to $1,300, but it just couldn’t get past that figure, and was only able to gain $12 and change on Friday… But still, given the rot on the currencies vine, Gold’s gains were quite impressive, but the price manipulators made sure it didn’t breach $1,300…
When I was a younger man, and my temper needed to be corralled at times, I would have liked to meet a price manipulator in the alley, if you will… But now, I’m an old partially handicapped, chemo filled, fat man that wouldn’t know what to do if that situation presented itself to me!
Can you believe the interview that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave on Friday? He said that the only risks to the U.S. economy are the slowdowns in Europe and Asia… Really? Are you blind, Mr. Chairman? Are do the economists that you employ to keep you up to date, feed you nothing but Captain Crunch? (by the way that’s my favorite cereal!, but boy is that sweetened!) If I were in his employ… I would be showing him all the economic reports that I show you, dear readers, on a daily basis that show we are heading to a recession… I can’t believe he said that! My, oh, my, what a tangled web we weave….
I just can’t get past that this morning… I’ll try, but I doubt it will happen… to have a Fed Chairman make a blatantly incorrect statement like that ranks up there with the Bernanke quotes about the housing market not being in any danger of imploding back in 2007…
In fact that was the most imbecile thing I’ve herd since the Bernanke quote that I’m going to just stop writing today, because I’m just all out of sorts, since I heard his words…
OK… I’m trying, but I just don’t have my heart into it… Powell… come, on! Well, the BREXIT talks have come to a standstill (see, Last week I told you the talks weren’t going well! ) Currency traders have finally gotten the message, and pound sterling is getting sold…
You wouldn’t believe, OK, maybe you would, sorry… But the number of articles from analysts and economists piling on Australia these days…. It just doesn’t make sense that everyone is piling on the Aussies, but the Aussie dollar (A$) remains well bid… Maybe it’s going to be a case of delayed reaction? But for now the A$ and kiwi have held their ground while all this green/peachback buying is going on.
I would be remis to not mention that the Chinese leader, Xi, announced that China would not devalue their currency to offset tariffs… And a sentence later, he mentioned that the China was going to cut interest rates… Really? And that won’t weaken the currency? I told you all years ago, to always listen to what the Chinese said, because they didn’t say things that they didn’t mean… So, in this case, we have to believe an all -out devaluation of the renminbi is out of the question, but a systematic take down by market forces will be OK… eh?
Oh, and the renminbi is much weaker at the start of this week, than is was at the start of last week, for those of you keeping score at home…
So, have you followed the articles talking about the U.S. seizing tons of Gold in Syria, and now Syria claims that the U.S. stole their Gold? These are quite interesting folks… I’m just saying… did we take the Gold as payment for all that we’ve done for them? I have no idea, but… Isn’t that they way things should have been all along? If the U.S. has to be the world police, then when conflicts arise, and the U.S. is called in, they should be paid, or reimbursed for their expenses…
Boy would we make long last friends that way…. NOT! OK, this has gone on too long, I need to stop this conversation before I really say what I’m thinking at tick 1/2 the people off!
Before we head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to mention something that scares the bejeebers out of me… I read last night that a large majority of young voters, are all for a socialist government… How in the world did that happen? What are we teaching these kids these days in school? The parents are to blame too, for not showing their kids that they have things because they worked hard for them in a capitalist economy! That makes two things that have been said this past weekend that I’m flabbergasted about! I had better quit, and start anew tomorrow…
To recap… The Jobs report for February was awful at best, but the dollar bugs were dancing on the tables, go figure… Chuck is flabbergasted by what Jerome Powell said in a speech on Friday… come on Jerome, really? Gold was kept, by the price manipulators, from breaching $1,300 on Friday, and had to settle for a gain of $12 and change on the day. The BREXIT talks have come to a standstill, and what the hell are they teaching kid in school these days?
For What It’s Worth… Since the Fed in on my you know what list, as usual, they really got my goat with this announcement about weakening the stress tests for banks… I can be found here: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-stresstests/federal-reserve-scraps-qualitative-test-for-u-s-banks-in-2019-stress-tests-idUSKCN1QN2PX
Or, here’s your snippet: “The U.S. Federal Reserve said on Wednesday it would no longer flunk banks based on operational or risk management lapses during its annual health check of the country’s domestic banks.
The “qualitative” portion of the 2019 test, however, will still apply to the U.S. subsidiaries of five foreign banks subject to the annual exam.
The move, which is a big win for major banks, such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan, Bank of America and Citigroup, forms part of a broader effort by the Fed to overhaul its annual “stress-testing” process, which the industry has long criticized as too onerous and opaque.
Since the 2007-09 global financial crisis, the Fed has put the country’s lenders through strict annual tests to see whether they would have enough capital to withstand a major economic downturn.
For the largest lenders, that test also included a so-called “qualitative objection,” that gives the Fed the discretion to fail banks due to risk management or operational failures, even if they have sufficient capital.”
Chuck Again… So, do you see what I see here? A return to pre-2007 for banks… Will this mean that in the next financial crisis, that taxpayers will have to bail them out again? I think so, folks… shameful, simply shameful
Currencies today 3/11/19 American Style: A$.7045, kiwi .6811, C$ .7454, euro 1.1248, sterling 1.2981, Swiss $.9914, European Style: rand 14.3737, krone 8.6887, SEK 9.4180, forint 280.56, zloty 3.8211, koruna 22.8157, RUB 66.32, yen 111.23, sing 1.3586, HKD 7.8498, INR 69.85, China 6.7198, peso 19.48, BRL 3.8651, Dollar Index 96.30, Oil $56.51, 10-year 2.64%, Silver $15.32, Platinum $814.02, Palladium $1,575.37, and Gold… $1,296.57
That’s it for today… Well, we “sprang forward” an hour this past weekend, which means the sunrise here is later in the morning, which means that I either need to write longer, or later to see the sunrise while I write! Darling daughter, Dawn and her family will be here on Saturday to spend their spring break with us, which means I get hugs from my little d… (Delaney Grace!) Two birthdays this past weekend, (Gus and Rick) and this week we have Kathy’s mom’s birthday… And then finally, mine! more on that when we get there… Shooting Star takes us to the finish line today with their song: Last Chance… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday and remember to Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler