I* dollar trading goes to sleep
- Iran war fuels higher fertilizer costs
Good Day… and a tub thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! It was about time! My beloved Cardinals finally beat the Brewers last night… They received a very well pitched game from the starter and +he bats came around… I sat outside to watch the game and it was a beautiful night… Steeler’s Wheel greets me this morning with their song: Stuck In +he Middle With you!
My “t” is whacky this morning, and I’ve had to go back and retype everything the Morning… UGH@ If I miss something, please just go on…. It’s not my fault!
As I told you yesterday, the war is back on and so the dollar is getting bought… But yesterday the dollar traders must have pulled back on the reins and said “Whoa Partner” Because the BBDXY ended the day in the same clothes as it wore in the morning… The BBDXY was 1,220 all day…
That didn’t stop the STPs from selling Gold & Silver… Gold lost $32 and Silver lost $1.70 on the day… I continue to think that all the SPTs do is provide cheaper buying opportunities… Invesco said in a report that Gold may have had a bad 2nds QTR, but Central Bank buying will continue and drive the price higher… So, there! And Rich Checkan at Asset Strategies Inc, said that “now is an opportune time to average into Gold… If you’re waiting for a lower level, you may miss what is right in front of you now.” thanks for backing up my thought, Rich!
The price of Oil gained $2 on the day and ended the day with a $74 handle… And the 10-year Treasury saw some selling and the yield bumped higher to 4.58%
In the overnight markets last night…. The missiles flew, the drone flew, but the dollar remained anchored down at 1,220 in the BBDXY… Gold is trying to build a good price this morning as it is up $26, and Silver is up 39-cents… Yesterday’s STP selloff was, in my humble opinion, a last-ditch effort for this round of wash, rinse and repeat… I’m just saying… AAA
The price of Oil keeps stepping up and this morning it trades with a $74 handle… The 10-year treasury bumped higher overnight, so it starts today with a 4.59%… Not much in the data cupboard, so the trading will all center around the War in Iran… UGH!
Well, the POTUS is at the NATO meeting and when asked if the war was back on, he replied “We retaliated last night So, I guess you can say that Iran lied, cheated and broke the Peace Agreement”….
That’s not a good thing for our debt situation in the U.S. for missiles cost a lot of money that we don’t have… and the cost of having Navy ships full of sea men on them is outrageous… So, expect HUGE Budget numbers when they print… I’m just saying…
And sounding like a broken record here… The larger the debt, the larger the debt servicing (interest charge)… And sooner or later the debt servicing will cost more of our National Budget than any other item…
And now to top it off… The Fed Heads are talking about hiking interest rates… Well, not all of them that is… Kevin Warsh is whiskey bound to show us we’ve calculated inflation all wrong , and his was will bring about a rate cut… While inflation is rising (our way of calculating it) and Money Supply is growing like a weed.
I started to become dehydrated again yesterday, but started drinking water, ASAP, and I seem to have fought it off…
Circling the wagons aound the War… Reuters had a good piece on other things that the war influences… here is a piece of that piece… “Modern farming depends on cheap fertilizer. The war with Iran has made fertilizer more expensive, with ships trapped, fertilizer plants shut down, farmers panicking and world food production thrown into peril
The war cut off 17% of the world’s natural gas supply and more than 30% of world nitrogen fertilizer supply. Almost half of the world’s exported sulfur, a critical component for another type of fertilizer, was trapped in the Middle East Gulf.
The disruption to the Strait of Hormuz means it will be months or years before some natural gas and fertilizer production returns to a pre-war normal. “
Chuck Again… just more pfodder for the items making up inflation… higher fertilizer costs… means higher food costs… and in the end, we as consumers shell out more disposable income… UGH!
The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had Consumer Credit (read debt) for May… yes, that was 2 months ago, but the propeller heads have been too busy to get this out timely…. Here’s the ABA’s view of the report: “Total outstanding revolving credit, largely a reflection of credit card debt, decreased at an annual rate of 4.7% to $1.344.2 trillion. Total outstanding nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.6% to $3,810.3 trillion.
The Federal government holdings of student loans continue to be the largest portion of non-revolving credit, comprising 42.2% percent of nonrevolving credit.”
Chuck again… Long explanation but it is what it is… The Data Cupboard also had the FOMC Meeting Minutes which I have for you in the FWIW section today
Today’s Data Cupboard continues the trend for this week, not much in the cupboard… Today we’ll only see the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and then the Cupboard goes bare for the rest of today and tomorrow!
To recap… The dollar didn’t move much yesterday and ended wearing the same figure it had on the morning… Gold & Silver still saw the SPTs but, Chuck thinks that the SPTs have done nothing but created cheaper buying opportunities, and he had a special guest agree with him…
For What It’s Worth… I told you above that I had something for you on the FOMC Meeting Minutes and I do… And it can be found here: Fed minutes June 2026: officials split on rates
Or, here’s your snippet: “Federal Reserve officials were split last month about the future of interest rates, with policymakers entertaining scenarios in either direction, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday.
In Kevin Warsh’s first meeting June 16-17 as chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, participants saw outcomes where inflation could ease and allow lower rates, while others envisioned a scenario where price increases stay elevated and lead to hikes.
During his post-meeting news conference, Warsh billed the debate as a “family fight” that ended with the committee unanimously voting to keep the Fed’s benchmark funds rate anchored in a range between 3.5%-3.75%, where it has been for all of 2026.
However, the minutes did not elaborate on any drama that had taken place and outlined divergent views from members without a bias to which way the committee was leaning. The dot-plot grid of individual members’ expectations, in which Warsh did not participate, narrowly tilted toward one rate hike this year, then a cut in each of the following two years.
Asked to judge their most likely scenario, “many participants indicated that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be within or slightly below the current target range at the end of this year,” the minutes stated.”
Chuck Again… “a family fight” but, as I said above, Warsh is going to attempt to sway his family and get to a rate cut…. I’m just saying…
Market Prices 7/9/2026: American Style: A$.6931, kiwi .5733, C$ .7051, euro 1.1425, sterling 1.3392, Swiss $1.2426, European Style rand 16.3909, krone 9.7604, SEK 9.6187, forint 313.88, zloty 3.7714, koruna 21.2321, RUB 76.15, yen 162.48, sing 1.2935, HKD 7.8364, INR 95.38, China 6.7959, peso 17.56, BRL 5.1507, BBDXY 1,220, Dollar Index $100.99, Oil $74.00, 10-year 4.59%, Silver $58.96, Platinum $1,616.00, Palladium $1,263.00, Copper $6.10, and Gold… $4,101
That’s it for today and this week… The Mighty Braves come to town this weekend to play my Cardinals… And then next Tues is the All-Star Game… 2 Cardinals were chosen, and will be in Philadelphia for the game… Well, I got through the letter today with my “T” being wonky, so I should get a gold Star! HA! Next week I start my summer vacation on Thursday… I’m so excited to get back to our winter home… The Great Al Stewart takes us to the finish line with his song: Time Passages… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler