November 30, 2022
* currencies & metals look better these days…
* Chuck dissects the Black Friday sales numbers
Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! U.S.A! U.S.A! I could hear the chant of the fans in Qatar on the TV yesterday, when the U.S. beat Iran to advance to the 2nd and knockout round of the World Cup… The U.S. team had to score at least one goal, and they did with the Captain America scoring it the 1st half…I thought the U.S played their best game yesterday, and now they’ll have to play better as they will face the Netherlands on Saturday morning… I guess it will be a Bloody Mary Morning on Saturday… The USA baseball team which will play games this spring, got a commitment from Adam Wainwright to pitch for the U.S. I sure hope he’s on when he pitches this spring… The Stephen Kummer Trio greets me this morning with their song: I’ve Got My Love To Keep Me Warm
Well, our Tom Terrific Tuesday was off to a good start yesterday for the non-dollar investors, with the BBDXY down 5 index points to start the day… But that didn’t last, and the dollar rallied throughout the day to end up only down 1 index point at 1,279… The currencies were about to take off on a upward orbit yesterday, but then they couldn’t get off the ground. Gold did find a way to add to hold onto its early morning gain of $9 and ended the day at $1,760.80, while Silver rallied 31-cents to close at $21.33.. The price of Oil continued to rebound and traded all day in the $78 range.. .It seems the Oil producing countries are meeting again this week, and it is highly expected that they will once again announce a production cut, and that’s why Oil has rebound a bit.
In The overnight markets last night… There wasn’t much movement in the dollar or the metals. However, this morning the currencies are taking off, and the metals are following. Platinum alone is up $36 this morning, Gold is up a few bucks, and Silver is up 43-cents. Oil has really taken the rumors of a another production cut coming from the OPEC upcoming meeting, and trades with an $80 handle this morning…
Here we go again! Mom! He’s doing it again! What I hear you asking? Ahhhh grasshopper, it’s that time once again to raise the debt ceiling… It’s either do that, or default… The Debt ceiling has been raised 78 times since 1960. The Debt Ceiling has NEVER been reduced… Usually, you get all the hand wringing and sweaty foreheads of the Congress people on TV talking about it, but in the end, it’s always been raised, so there’s no worries on a default this time… Move along, these are not the droids we’re looking for…
I really think that this is yet another chance to do the right thing for the lawmakers… they could stop their cronyism, payouts on bribes, I mean to voters, and all the money spent on wars, and cut the deficit… But they won’t because those things don’t get them reelected… It’s all about retaining the power… I shake my head in disgust.
I was doing some thinking about the recent Black Friday sales that were supposed to be good, and thought well, no wonder sales receipts are up this year from last year, this year things cost more due to inflation, and thought, why would people be all excited about increased sales that aren’t better than the inflation rate? I started to get into this and then I read a piece from James Rickards at the dailyreckoning.com site, and thought, he does it way better than I do, so here’s Jim: “Black Friday’s sales set a new record this year, up 2.3% over 2021. Thanksgiving online sales were also up 2.9%. So don’t listen to any gloom and doom talk about a recession. Just look at the numbers.
That’s what they’ll tell you. Well, here’s what they won’t tell you:
All of those sales figures are nominal. In other words, they don’t account for inflation.
If an item costs 10% more this year than it did last year, even a decrease in sales numbers can still yield a nominal increase in final sales numbers.
But the actual number of sales would be down from the previous year. The final figures are simply masked because of the inflation.
If you adjust this year’s nominal sales numbers for inflation, you’ll discover that real sales are down about 5%.
That figure is consistent with recession. Of course, that doesn’t fit the mainstream narrative, but that doesn’t change the facts.”
Chuck again, well that’s exactly what I would have said… (right, and my first wife was a young Elizabeth Taylor! )
This letter will be going out a little later than usual this morning… I dog ate my homework, I lost it on the way to school, I gave it to you already… You know, all the excuses for being late with homework, could be used, but, in the end. I just couldn’t answer the bell this morning… No excuses… sure, I could have blamed Technical Difficulties, as they have been an often occurrence, but, I’m a big boy, I’ll take the lumps for being a lazy, no good, account of a person that needed to sleep… And once this letter is out the door, that’s exactly where I’ll return…
I had a dear reader send me a note yesterday, asking me that if everyone is using credit cards, and venmo, and what zelle, what difference is that to having digital currencies, since everyone has shunned cash?
I don’t want to get into a long discussion about digital currencies and how they will remove all privacy that you have regarding what you buy, and how much you spend, and could very well be the excuse the Gov’t uses to control you and keep you from doing the things you love to do… No, I won’t do that this morning, I’ve don’t that before, so if you really need it, go back in the Pfennig archives and find it at www.dailypfennig.com
I was watching a stupid TV show yesterday, and the parent was all upset because he couldn’t figure out how to Tik Tok… And that brought my mind back to something that good friend, Dennis Miller, wrote a few weeks ago, take it away Dennis: “We are a generation that:
- spent all their free time in the streets with their friends.
- played hide and seek when dark.
- had parents who were there.
- found, collected, washed & returned empty bottles to the local shop for a few pennies each, then bought a candy bar with the money.
- played board games and cards on rainy days.”
Chuck again… You know if you don’t already read Dennis’ letter, you should go there and sign up, you can find him at www.milleronthemoney.com
The U.S. Data Cupboard today finally has something for us… The 1st revision of 3rd QTR GDP will print today, along with Personal Income and Spending… We’ll also get 3 different Fed Heads on the speaking circuit… To finish it all off today, we’ll see the latest Job Openings and Job Quits numbers… The great resignation continues, and that will be evident in the plus 4 Million jobs quits number…
To recap… The dollar fought back yesterday to end up down only 1 index point in the BBDXY, it had been down over 5 index points overnight. Gold found a way to gain $8 on the day, and Silver gained 29-cents. The dollar seems to be just holding on for dear life to me… I guess we’ll see where this takes us, eh?
For What It’s Worth… I found this in note that the good folks at GATA sent me, and followed the link and found this story to be quite interesting… It’s about an African country that is a HUGE producer of physical Gold, and how they plan to use Gold to buy Oil…And that article can be found here: Ghana in talks with Dubai refiner to barter gold for fuel (energyvoice.com)
Or, here’s your snippet: “Ghana is in talks with Emirates National Oil Co. (ENOC) for a barter arrangement that will enable the West African nation to buy fuel with gold.
The government reached a “tentative” agreement with the Dubai-based oil firm, said Kabiru Mahama, an economic adviser to Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia.
Ghana, Africa’s second-largest gold producer, last week ordered large mining companies to sell 20% of the metal they refine to the central bank from Jan. 1 as it builds up reserves of bullion to be used to import fuel and reduce demand for dollars after its currency plunged 57% this year.
“We’re open to any international oil-trading company that is interested,” Mahama said in a phone interview on Friday. “Starting next October, all our oil-product needs would be swapped for gold.”
Ghana is struggling to stabilise its economy and sees the barter system as a way to stem a slide in the cedi — the world’s worst performer among currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The weakening cedi is fuelling inflation and depleting the nation’s foreign-exchange reserves.
Dubai has a long association with the gold trade. While critics say that regulatory loopholes allow bullion used for money laundering and smuggled out of war zones to be traded in the city, Dubai’s commodities exchange has rejected those claims.
Gold trading was brought into the United Arab Emirates’s federally managed anti-money laundering reporting system last year.
“ENOC is interested in giving us refined oil for gold,” Steve Opata, head of financial markets at the Bank of Ghana, said in an interview on Monday. “Depending on what quantities they are committed to giving us, we will give them the equivalent in gold. This is a government-to-government program.”
Chuck again… Well… this is the first domino to fall outside of the Russia / China Oil for gold trade, that is bucking the agreement made in the 70’s to price all oil in dollars… If this works, then you’ll se other countries try it.. And the number of ways the dollar holds the crown of the reserve currency gets taken away… I’m just saying…
Metals pricing 11/30/ 2022: American Style: A$ .6729, kiwi .6239, C$ .7407, euro 1.0391, sterling 1.2013, Swiss $1.0540, European Style: rand 16.9082, krone 9.8268, SEK 10.5217, forint 392.96, zloty 4.4847, koruna 23.4136, RUB 61.03, yen 139,13, sing 1.3657, HKD 7.7984, INR 81.42, China 7.0800, peso 19.31, BRL 5.2923, BBDXY 1,275.05, Dollar Index 106.59, Oil $80.97, 10-year 3.76%, Silver $21.76, Platinum $1,038.00, Palladium $1.938.00, Copper $3.73, and Gold… $1,757.30
That’s it for today… My beloved Mizzou Tigers got word that their best receiver is entering the transfer portal.. I ‘ve got to say this here, and then see if it gets any traction… But in my opinion, if a player enters the transfer portal he has to sit out a year before playing for the team he transfers to… This whole transfer portal thing is getting out of hand… The grass isn’t always greener on the other side of the fence, and these young men need to know that. I just heard a song that featured a banjo… Just hearing that made me think of the late great Mogambo Guru… He loved to play his banjo and did so in bands around where he lived in S. Florida. I have bumper sticker displayed on my writing desk that has a picture of the Mogambo Guru, and says, “What Would Mogambo Guru Buy? (Gold, Silver & Oil, moron!) The Mogambo always considered me a Junior Mogambo Guru Ranger.. .or JMR… I’m still trying my best Mogambo, to shout to people about how crooked the Fed Heads are, I hope you still read me in heaven… Ok… time to go! Dean Martin is crooning his version of the song: I’ve Got My Love To Keep Me Warm, to take us to the finish line today. I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday, and please, pretty please with sugar on top, Be Good To Yourself!