Category: Uncategorized

• currencies & metals get sold into the weekend
• Gold’s two-day losing streak, making someone happy

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, I’m going to have cataract surgery on my remaining one eye soon… I went to the eye doctor on Friday, and we decided that even through this type of surgery is common, it has risks because I only have one good eye… So, that’s the latest on me..  Glad you asked? No, wait, you didn’t ask, I just came out and told you!   Our Blues kicked some Winnepeg tail and took names later in the 2-games, to even the series at 2 games apiece, now they need to win game-5 in Wnnepeg!   Steely Dan greets me this morning with their song: Deacon Blues… 

I had a reader once tell me that the song Deacon Blues was about the Walke Forest Demon Deacons, who at one had lost a great number of games in a losing streak for the ages… 

OK… We’ll all the dollar selling in recent times, has been halted by the PPT intervening, and buying dollars… That was what stopped the dollar selling, and sone then it’s been dollar buying to win back the ground it had lost… 

The BBDXY finished the week at 1,226, up 2 index points on the day. The euro has dropped the 1.15 figure, and the 1.14 figure, and is back trading with a 1.13 handle. And the rest of the currencies have followed the flight of the euro, so they are all down from their previous perky levels. 

The price of Gold has gyrated in recent trading… Up Big one day, and then lose it all the next day… So,, on Friday, Gold lost $33 to close the week at $3,3320, and Silver has seen the same type of moves and ended the week at $33.17, down 47-cents on the day.. I personally think that the metals are just hanging around waiting for the next shoe to drop in the U.S. before they take off for higher ground again… 

It seems that we could expect a development coming from the U.S. on a daily basis, but that’s not true, it just seems like it…  And if all things are equal, and the markets do pay attention to the economic data that prints, then this week is full-of-potential-problems for the dollar… We’ll go over the data prints due this week below… 

The price of Oil ended the week trading with a $63 handle, and the 10-year Treasury bond’s yield ended the week at 4.40%… 

The question now that’s going through the markets, is:  ga Gold topped out? Or is just taking a breather?  I truly believe that Gold has just taken a breather… For don’t you know that it would only take a comment or two to push Gold to new highs? 

In the overnight markets last night…  There was little to no movement in the dollar, as the BBDXY starts today and this week at 1,226, the same level it was to finish the week… Gold on the other hand begins the day/ week down $28 and Silver is down 10-cents… If Gold doesn’t turn around this loss today, then it will post a 2-day losing streak and that would certainly make the stock jockeys happy… 

The price of Oil slipped below the $63 handle overnight, and trades this morning with a $52 handle… The 10-year Treasury bond is getting bought (by someone or some entity, like the Fed Heads doing their yield curve adjusting)  So, the 10-year stars today/ this week trading with a 4.28% yield… 

Well, the newswires are full of folks writing about how they see the dollar going into a tailspin… The folks are spread out too, we have economists at Deutsche Bank, who claims that the euro will rise to 1.30 in the dollar/ euro trading… We had MarketWatch’s economist say: “The world needs the dollar, even a battered one” And a different economist at MarketWatch said, “Dominant theme in currency market remains the rotation out of the U.S. dollar”  We even had the guy that I put the blame on for most of the bad stuff that happens in the U.S, George Soros say that “the preconditions are now in place for the beginning of a major dollar downtrend” in the years to come.” 

In case you don’t recall Soros is responsible for the breaking of the pound staring back in 1002… I had just begun to write the Pfennig to the salesmen on the trading desk, and couldn’t believe it, that one man could cause the British to not join the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism), because the pound sterling had dropped so much… So, in retrospect, he didn’t do it all by his lonesome, but the call to short the pound came from him…..And that’s all I have to say about that!

Well, have you heard about the new Chinese version of SWIFT?  As you know, SwIFT is the U.S. based system that is used to move monies around the world… You may recall that the U.S. expelled Russia from SWIFT a couple of years ago… Since then, both China and Russia have been working feverishly to build their own SWIFT, and now it appears that China has done just that!  Here are a couple of headlines for you regarding China’s new payment system…

China’s CIPS overtook SWIFT’s $ system, moves $1.76 trillion daily cross-border. Unlike SWIFT, CIPS handles both messaging and settlement.

A $100,000 payment to a Thai supplier via SWIFT cost $4,950 in fees (4.95%) and took 72 hours. CIPS 2.0 charged $0.12 .

Sounds to me like SWIFT has a Bonafide challenger in China’s CIPS 2.0…  Now this is going to cause the dollar some problems going forward, folks… 

I’ve got something for you in the FWIW section today, that has more about what China’s thinking… I think the thing that most Americans don’t think about is how China is in whatever it is, for the long run… They think in generations and longer…  They’re not into instant gratification…  So, in your lifetime, you can expect that China will be a major player in the world, more so than the U.S and Europe…  And what will be their main asset they use to rule the world?  Physical Gold… He who has the Gold, makes the rules…  Remember that one folks… I’m just saying…

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week has a ton of economic data for the markets to mull over..  And it all starts on Wednesday… The ADP Employment Report for April starts us off and then comes the ECI (Employment Cost Index) for the 1st QTR…  next up will be the Personal Income and Spending for March…  Believe it don’t, but Income is supposed to have been better than Spending in March…  And then batting cleanup will be the PCE for March… (Personal Consumption Expenditures)  the Fed Heads preferred inflation calculator, supposedly… 

Then on Friday, we’ll have a Jobs Jamboree that will print for the March hires… Right now, the forecasters have the U.S. creating only 130,000 jobs in March… I’m sure the BLS will have something to say about that low number and add some of their jobs our of thin air to the total… 

To recap… The dollar is getting bought again, after the PPT got it all started last week when they intervened and bought dollars…The dollar has just about recovered the ground it lost before the PPT,,, Gold & Silver have seen alternating days of gyrations… And Chuck gives us his thoughts on what’s going on here…   And Chuck gives us the breakdown of the folks calling for a downward trajectory for the dollar… We get a ton of data printing this week… 

For What It’s Worth….  This is the article I talked about above, regarding China and the direction they are going, and it can be found here: The Art of *Currency* War – The Daily Reckoning

Or, here’s your snippet: “The U.S. dollar remains the king of currencies. For now, at least.

The greenback’s share of global foreign exchange reserves sits around 58%. However, back in 2000 the dollar was even more dominant with a 72% market share.

Meanwhile China’s yuan only makes up about 2.2% of global forex reserves, but that’s up from 1.1% in 2016. The currency’s share of global payments is higher at around 4.7%.

China’s leadership is now making a push to grow the yuan’s role as both a reserve currency and in payment. Specifically, the country is seeking to take advantage of recent U.S. bond market volatility.

“The recent soaring volatility in the US Treasury market marks a watershed event”, according to Yang Changjiang, a finance professor at a leading Chinese university.

Yang went on to say, via the South China Morning Post:

We used to consider trade settlement as the key driver of the yuan’s internationalisation, but now the focus has shifted to whether the yuan can serve as a safe-haven asset. This is an opportunity that we must seize.

The Chinese yuan as a “safe-haven asset”? That would be a surprising development, but a possibility worth paying attention to.

China is gobbling up gold and attempting to internationalize its currency. They’re clearly planning something big here, so as investors it’s our job to attempt to sniff out what that might be. Any change in the global monetary order will have immense effects across asset classes, so we must pay attention.”

Chuck again… Yes, we must do that… Pay attention to China… 

Market Prices 2/28/2025: American Style: A$ .6392, kiwi .5945, C$ .7208, euro 1.1337, sterling 1.3033, Swiss $1.2038, European Style: rand 18.6633, krone 10.4522, SEK 9.6406, forint 357.06, zloty 3.5706, koruna 220768, RUB 82.91, yen 143.43, sing, 1.3143, HKD 7.7544, INR 85.68, China 7.2988, peso 19.53. BRL 6.8837, BBDXY 1.226. Dollar Index 99.56, Oil $62.71, 10-year 4.28%, Silver $33.07, Platinum $960.00, Palladium $960.00, Copper $4.87, and Gold $3,291.50

That’s it for today…  OK, I warned you previously that the Pfennig would be hit and miss with my doctor appointments since came back home, and tomorrow I go to see my cardiologist… This is an important appt. Folk, so there’ll be no Pfennig tomorrow… We’ll pick it back up on Wednesday with all the data prints… My beloved Cardinals came home and played much better taking 2 of 3 from the Brewers….It was just a 3-game home stand, UGH! Now they go back out on the road where they can’t seem to do anything right…   AT lease all the games from Cincy will start early, for us here in the Central Time Zone, and that’s a good thing for yours truly!  Sniff-n-the Tears take us to the finish line today with their song: Driver’s Seat… Don’t know that one? YOUTUBE it, I think you grow to like it! I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please continue to BE Good To Yourself!

Chick Butler

• Chuck thinks it was the PPT intervening with the dollar
• Gold seems to be oblivious to the goings on around it…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, my St Louis teams didn’t fare any better last night, as my beloved Cardinals lost to the Braves, and our Blues fell to 0-2 in the playoffs VS Winnipeg… UGH! I didn’t get out to walk yesterday. At one point in the day, I looked at my watch revealing that it was 3:20, and said, “where did the day go?” I also got in trouble with little Evie, I because i saw some good-looking cookies, and took one to dip in my coffee, only to have her get upset that I took one!  She’s bossy for her age, that’s for sure!  Seals & Crofts greet me this morning with their song and the theme song of my H.S. Graduating class: We May Never Pass This Way Again… 

Well, the dollar stopped getting sold as the U.S. currency desks came on board and took over from the Overnight Markets who had sold the dollar down the river to the tune of 10 index points in the BBDXY… The U.S. desks bought dollars and the BBDXY won back 2 index points previously lost. But still, the BBDXY ended the day down 8 index points at 1,216…   That mini recovery in the dollar didn’t faze the euro, which remained above the 1.15 handle, and the euro’s strength helped the rest of the currencies to hold onto their gains too…  

Gold ended the day up $99 to close at $3,426, and Silver ended up the day up 20-cents to close at $32.74… Silver was subjected to short paper trading yesterday, as I reported here Silver was up 44-cents in the early morning, only to see the short paper traders take their pound of flesh from Silver’s value… Gold is overbought on the RSI (Relative Strength Index) but, at this point, it is so far overbought, that no one is paying attention to the RSI at this point… And like I said last week, when I mentioned the RSI, Silver hasn’t sniffed an overbought price since early April, when it touched $34 and change… 

I had a dear reader ask me a question about whether or not the DOGE group was every going to audit Ft. Knox…  And then there was this in Ed Steer’s letter this morning: “While many are still wondering about whether or not the audit of Fort Knox is happening, it doesn’t seem like President Trump doubts the country’s gold holdings.

With gold surging through $3420/oz. for the first time ever this morning, many are pointing back to one of President Trump’s Truth Social posts from yesterday. Trump wrote on Easter: “THE GOLDEN RULE OF NEGOTIATING AND SUCCESS: HE WHO HAS THE GOLD MAKES THE RULES. THANK YOU!”.

Recall, in early 2025, Donald Trump and Elon Musk publicly questioned whether Fort Knox still holds its gold reserves. Trump announced plans to visit the site, while Musk suggested a live-streamed inspection, saying, “Maybe it’s there, maybe it’s not.”

Sounds like the audit has been put on hold for now, and that’s a sad thing, in my humble country boy opinion. Let’s get going on it! C’mon Elon… What do you need to get going on this? If this audit gets delayed, then I think it will get put on the back burner and out of the minds of ihe markets… That’s my take on what’s going on here right now… 

Back in the day, when I was a foreign Bond Trader, and Currency Trader, the markets used to pay close attention to the RSI… But then something happened on the way to the forum…  The dollar entered a long-term weak trend in 2003, and the RSI was thrown out the window, because every week the euro and other currencies were booking gains VS the dollar… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $63 handle yesterday, and the 10-year Treasury only added 1 BP to its yield yesterday ending the day at 4.41%… 

This price action yesterday got me thinking about the last couple of times that we’ve seen the dollar get ambushed, and each of those times, it was in the overnight markets…  We also had a day in U.S. trading about 2 weeks ago, that sold dollars BIG TIME, but for the most part, the overnight markets have done the most damage to the dollar…

And for those of you who keep track of the Gold/ Silver ratio.. That ration widened to 103 yesterday, which to me shows that Silver has a lot of ground to catch up, and left to its own devices it would be there lickety split but as long as the short paper traders have their say, Silver will not be left to its own devices… , 

In the overnight markets last night…  well, before retiring last night, I checked the currencies, and the dollar was getting sold again, but something happened on the way to the forum last night, and the selling turned to buying… When that happens like that you’ve got believe that it was Central Bank intervention… That’s what years of currency trading taught me… So, yesterday, I was talking about the PPT not being seen in the markets, but i would suspect that they were there last night, buying dollars… The BBDXY has improved to a 1,217 figure this morning, and the euro has lost the 1.15 figure… The dollar buying isn’t to start a war over, but it’s of notice, with the currencies all backing off their perky levels they sat at yesterday.. 

Gold is up $33 to start our day today…  I have a feeling tht I’m going to regret saying this, but here goes… Gold seems to be oblivious o everything that’s going on around it, and just keeps plugging along, moving higher, and now has its sights set on $3,500…  Are you ready?  This is a classic “flight to safety” move in Gold, folks… Safety from the debt scenario that questions where the financing will come from, Safety from the feud between the POTUS, and Fed Chairman, and Safety from the ill-effects of the Trade Wars… 

Silver opens up this morning down 2-cents, so flat if you will… The price of Oil remains trading with a $63 handle, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield moved another BP to 4.42% overnight…  

I read a report on site that wouldn’t let me read it all unless I signed up with them, but what I read was interesting in that they questioned the Fed/ Caba/ Cartel’s ability to adhere to their dual mandate of ensuring stable prices and full employment…  Shoot Rudy, I thought to myself, they (Fed Heads) can’t even adhere to their target inflation rate! How are they going to ensure stable prices?  Wishful thinking… I’m just saying… 

Circling the wagons here, and coming back to an explanation as to why the dollar it loosing ground to the tune of 8%, it’s a combination of a couple of things… 1. The feud between the PORUS and the Fed Chairman, 2. The debt that needs to be finanaced, with bonds getting sold instead of bought by foreigners, and 2. The Sell American trade… 

Shoot Rudy, even the Wall Street Journal mentioned the Sell America theme…   I “took this from Moneymetals.com ” Wall Street Journal summed up:

The “Sell America” trade picked back up on Monday.

Stocks fell, with the Dow industrials dropping 1,100 points and on pace for their worst April since 1932, and the dollar hit fresh multiyear lows against the euro and other major currencies. Yields on longer-term Treasurys rose, and gold surged to a fresh record high.”

But let’s not lose our focus here, that the debt and the feud are every bit important in this dollar selling… 

You know what I haven’t heard being thrown about lately?  That “deficits don’t matter”… I used to cringe when I would see that in print, and it would come from people that `were considered to be “smarter than the average Bear”  Idiot dolts is what I used to call them, and then I would have to apologize to my deceased mother for saying something rotten about somebody! 

At least the blue light special selling of Treasuries has abated, for now…  I don’t know how much longer Treasuries can remain on the sidelines while stocks, Bonds, and the dollar all get sold… I’m just saying… 

This week in the U.S. Data Cupboard, we won’t be seeing much, if anything in the way of real economic reports… Durable Goods Orders will print on Thursday, but I won’t be writing that day, so there’s that… A lot of Fed Heads on the speaking circuit this week, so prepare yourselves to hear a lot of lies…  

To Recap… The dollar stopped getting sold during the U.S. trading day yesterday, but still ended the day down 8 index points in the BBDXY.. Gold gained $99 on the day, and Silver fought and fought the short paper traders to eke out a 20-cent gain on the day… Chuck gives us 3 reasons for the selling of the dollar right now, and he mentions that he hasn’t heard the idiot dolts spouting off about how “deficits don’t matter” …

Before we head to the BIG Finish this morning… I want to mention that 78 years ago, yesterday, my all-time favorite country artists, Hank Williams, stepped into a recording studio and recorded: Move It On Over… I can’t say that I like much country music, but I do enjoy the recordings of Hank Willams… When I was kid at home, my dad would go through the house singing Hank Willliams’ songs… And when I first learned how to play the guitar, I sat down and learned those songs by Hank Williams, in hopes that one day, my dad would sing along with my guitar playing…  But that never came to fruition, and I still love Hank Wiliams’ songs! 

For What it’s Worth…  weel, here’s a different take on the trade wars from a leading economist. He says that his thoughts have us entering a long period of stagflation, and it can be found here: This top U.S. economist puts the chance of a ‘stagflationary’ recession at 65% – MarketWatch

Or, here’s your snippet: “A leading economist contends a recession is now more likely than not due to the Trump administration’s trade wars, and that the U.S. could suffer the biggest “stagflationary” shock in decades.

“We may get recession, we may not, but we are going to get inflation either way,” said Adam Posen, a former official at both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, in a speech this week.

The influential Posen, now the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, put the odds of recession at 65%.

He said even if Trump strikes deals with various countries, tariffs are likely to remain in place. These measures would raise prices, increase inflation and slow the economy — the recipe for a period of stagflation.

Stagflation refers to an economy suffering from high inflation and weak or even negative economic growth. The last time the U.S. suffered from stagflation was in the late 1970s and early 1980s, a period of tremendous economic turmoil.

Even if Republicans further reduce taxes and cut regulations, Posen said, households and businesses probably won’t increase spending and investment because of a chronic state of uncertainty fostered by the Trump White House.”

Chuck again…  well, every day we get another idea of what’s going to come of the trade wars, take your pick, but the one that sticks out in my mind is that of stocks going back to their intrinsic values..  In other words, stocks getting sold Big Time! 

Market Prices 4/22/2025; American Style: A$ .6396, kiwi .5948, C$ .7220, euro 1.1475, sterling 1.3364, Swiss $ 1.231p, European Style: rand 18.6299, krone 10.3876, SEK 9.5214, forint 358.76, zloty 3.7807, koruna 21.8640, RUB 81.83, yen 140.40, sing 1.3083, HKD 7.7676, INR 85.19, China 7.3134, peso 19.56, BRL 5.7962, BBDXU 1,217, Dollar Index 99.56, Oil $63.92, 10-year 4.42%, Silver $32.72, Platinum $967.00, Palladium $946.00, Copper $4.84, and Gold… $3,459.66

That’s it for today… Yesterday, was my good friend, and former Big Boss, Frank Trotter’s Birthday! He’s now 1 year older than me again… I bet that Frank’s new endeavor, Battle Bank, is oh-so-close to opening its virtual doors, that he can taste it! The patience of this man is incredible… If it were me, I would get the FDIC on the horn every day, asking them when they were going to make final decision!  Good thing it’s not me! I would make a mess of everything! What’s gotten into my beloved Cardinals, who can’t beat “bye” on the road?  They’ve wasted a ton of great starting pitching with weak bats… UGH it’s going to be a long season, I’m afraid…  The late Great George Harrison takes us to the finish line today with his song: While My Guitar Gently Sleeps…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar gets sold down the river, in the overnight trading
• Potus VS Fed Chairman… Who will win?

Good Day… And a Marvelous Easter Monday to you! Well, if you celebrate Easter, how was yours? Mine was great! All my kids and grandkids were here, along with some extended family!  We’ve got more chocolate here than Carter has pills… I don’t think it will be good for me to eat a lot of it!  I guess the grandkids filled their baskets and that was it… We’ll have to have them back to gather some more, because I’m not going to consumer all that chocolate! Little Evie stayed the night with us, and is here for the day today… I need to stay away from here for the most part, because I always end up with an ailment after she comes here… I’m just eliminating one thing… Gotta find out why I keep getting sick!  Johnny Rivers greets me this morning with his song: The Poor Side of Town…   

The dollar continued to get sold going into last weekend, but not as badly as one would think given the bad economic reports on Thursday… The BBDXY ended the week at 1,224…  That’s a 6.5% loss when measuring the BBDXY YTD…  Gold ended the week on a down note, but it’s important to point out that Gold is indicating that it is in overbought territory in the RSI (Relative Strength Index) … Usually, that would have Gold getting sold until it was no longer showing overbought…   Gold hadn’t shown any resistance from being overbought, so either it was that, or profit taking, or… Short paper trading that caused Gold to end the week down $14, and to close at $3,327…   

I find it very promising that Gold has remained well bid in an overbought position in the RSI…  the selling on Thursday doesn’t turn out to be short paper trading, it would indicate that Gold is resilient to the RSI Index… Silver hasn’t sniffed an overbought position in the RSI since earlier this month, and that’s when the short paper traders used the RSI reading to take Silver down violently….  So, Silver ended last week at $32.68…  up on Thursday 15-cents…   Friday was a markets holiday (Good Friday) and only the Gold market in China was open, and Gold didn’t do anything there…  

On Thursday last week, the European Central Bank (ECB ) did what they said they would do, and that is cut rates… They Cut their internal rate 25 Basis point (1/4%) to 2.25%. This was the ECB’s 7^th rate cut in the last year! They (the ECB ) truly believe that the coming tariff war is going to cause inflation to return to the Eurozone…  I’ve got a bridge I would like to sell them, if they’re that naive…  where have all the rate hawks gone from the Bundesbank (Germany’s Central Bank) and the De Nederlandsche Ban (The Netherlands Central bank) gone?   The euro didn’t lose any ground on the rate cut news…  Which proves my statement to you years ago, that the euro is the offset currency to the dollar, and with that moniker the euro gets to rally even if the economic news in the Eurozone is bad…  

Years ago, in a glazy far away, I was the foreign bond trader at Mark Twain Bank, and I used to write in the Pfennig then that I didn’t understand why the Bundesbank wasn’t cutting rates… See how I’ve changed?  Once I also took on the currency trading to go with my bond trading, I saw the error of my ways… And that rate cuts weren’t not good for the currency, for they equaled a debasing of the currency…     

I mentioned the bad economic reports above, and if you can’t wait, go ahead and take a peek at the U.S. Data Cupboard piece below…   

The price of Oil bumped higher again late last week to end the week trading with a $63 handle… And the 10-year’s yield bumped higher to end the week with a 4.33% yield…    President Trump is blowing the horn for rate cuts, and it’s for good reason as far as the Gov’t’s books are concerned…  He feels that if rates were cut, the yield on Treasuries would drop, thus brining the cost of servicing the bonds down…  Shoot Rudy, the cost to pay the interest on the bonds now is more than we pay out to the Defense Budget..   And it will be even costlier in 2026, and so on…     

You know, there’s no guarantee that Treasury yield will come down if there are rate cuts…  Remember last fall when the Fed Heads cut rates 3 times, but Treasury yields rose?   I kept pointing that situation out to you dear readers, saying that the Bond Boys were saying that they didn’t believe that inflation had been defeated (at that time it was 2.8%, and nowhere near the Fed’s 2% target rate)…   So, you can’t hang your hat on yields coming down if there are rate cuts… I’m just saying…  And if I were Jerome Powell, I would be pointing the scenario that took place last fall, out to the POTUS…   

In the overnight markets last night…  OMG! It’s an ambush of all ambushes! The dollar is getting sold like it’s the Zimbabwe currency! The BBDXY is down 10 index points this morning, after a night of selling. The euro has climbed to a 1.15 handle, and the rest of the currencies are all looking perky this morning.  What’s got the traders and investors selling dollars now?  Well, it seems the markets didn’t like the back and forth between the President and the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel chairman over his status as chairman…   They think it hurts the dollar as a safe haven, and so the dollar gets sold down the river…  Go ahead and take a peak at the currency roundup below and see for yourself the damage to the dollar.. 

And Gold? The real safe haven, and not some fly by night, investment, is up $75 this morning, and climbed above the $3,400 figure!  Silver is joining in and is up 43-cents to start the day/ week this morning. This is one for the ages, folks… So, mark this down in your daily journal as a day that sent the dollar into a new weak dollar trend…  There I said it!  

The price of Oil remained trading with a $63 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield has jumped higher with the dollar getting sold, and the 10-year’s yield sits at 4.40% this morning…   That’s up 10 BPS from where it closed last Thursday… 

I spent an hour listening to a James Rickards message this past weekend… I don’t know why I do that, it always leads to the same conclusion, “join my letter for ‘X’ dollars, and I’ll send you the report”…  I tell you this so 1. You won’t fall for these things, and 2. That he made a good statement about raw materials here in the U.S. that have been protected by dumb legislature for years. No, instead we, as a country, import these raw materials, and pay quite dearly for them, when we have oodles of raw materials in the ground here in the U.S. that haven’t been touched…   Well, that’s about to change… 

It was reported by the good folks at GATA this past weekend that the POTUS has approved 10 new mining projects here in the U.S. This could be a game changer for the U.S. folks… We had better keep our eyes on this development, don’t you think? I do… I’m just saying… 

And then I received an email with a link to an article that explains this move by the POTUS, an it can be found here: Trump to fast-track permitting for 10 mining projects across US | Reuters

So, as you can see, I don’t make this stuff up!  

I can’t think of anything else this morning, except for the dollar getting sold down the river..  This is a long time coming, folks…  All the pent-up frustration as the dollar gained when it shouldn’t have…  There have been days when I didn’t even want to write about the dollar and its rally… But with the dollar down more than 8% this year, that appears to be over..  The PPT and their treasure trove of funds that have been used to save the dollar in the past, have been absent from the currency tradeing, and that’s very suspicious to me, but I say “leave sleeping dogs alone”  

And the POTUS and Fed Chairman, going back and forth, doesn’t help things… The POTUS wants to fire Jerome Powell, because he won’t cut interest rates…  Now this is nothing new, but has been brought to a head, because of the overall meanness that has been brought to the table… Here’s Bloomberg.com this morning: ““Firing Powell not only undermines the principle of central-bank independence, but risks politicizing US monetary policy in a way that markets will find unsettling,” said Christopher Wong, a strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. If the Fed’s credibility is called into question, that could erode confidence in the dollar and accelerate flows into havens, including gold, he said.”

I got a kick out of that last part regarding The Fed’s Credibility being called into question… Did they have any credibility left?  I would have to argue that point, because I feel that when the Fed Heads cut rates three times last fall when inflation was nowhere near their previously stated target of 2%. The remainder of their credibility was lost…  I’m just saying… 

And the guy quoted in Bloomberg. Com above, is a little too late for the party, because those flows are already into Gold…    But that’s the problem with coming out with a statement, it’s old before you finish it! 

Oh well, I just say, “can’t we all just get along”..  Apparently, no is the answer… And that’s a very sad thing in my opinion… 

You know, Easter Monday used to be a holiday for yours truly, back when he ran the currency desk at EverBank… Good Friday, and Easter Monday were always taken off. I didn’t think that I needed to work on days that were so important!  To me that is…

The U.S. Data Cupboard ended last week with some awful numbers that didn’t help Gold any… First, we had the Philly Fed ISM (manufacturing for the region) and it came in a negative -26.4…  and then we had Housing Starts come in for March showing an 11% drop…   Both bad numbers as far as the economy goes…  And that should have gotten the rate cuts bugs crawling out of the woodwork, but the only rate cut bug that made everyone feel queasy, was the POTUS, who claimed that he was going to throw Fed/ Cabal / Cartel chairman, Jerome Powell, out with the trash…  Powell, basically said, “Come and see if you can do that!”   in truth, I made that last part for Powell up, but I sure imagined him saying it! 

This week’s Data Cupboard is null and void of real economic reports, after starting the week with the leading Indicators, which have been mostly negative for months now… 

To recap…  The dollar is getting sold down the river this morning folks, as it was ambushed overnight, and the BBDXY is down 10 index points to start our day/ week this morning.  The euro has climbed over the 1.15 handle, and Gold is up $75 to start the day/ week! The dollar is getting sold because its safe haven is being called into question, and that is derived from the bickering that’s going back and forth between the POTUS and the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chairman… Chuck thinks that this day should be an entry in your journal… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, I spent a lot of this morning talking about the dollar selloff, so I think it apropos to have the FWIW continue that thought, and so this is about the dollar at a crossroads and it can be found here: The U.S. Dollar Stands at a Major Crossroads

Or, here’s your snippet: “The U.S. Dollar Index is testing a key technical level that has triggered major rebounds in the past—making this an important setup for commodities and precious metals investors to watch closely.

The U.S. dollar has fallen sharply since the start of the year, which has boosted commodity prices—especially metals like gold and silver—due to their inverse relationship.

This decline stems from several factors, including a plunging stock market that triggered foreign capital outflows, rising recession risks and expectations of future interest rate cuts, and growing uncertainty over America’s new tariff policies.

But after three months of steady declines, the dollar now finds itself at a key crossroads—one that will significantly influence its next move, as well as how commodities and precious metals respond from here.

The crossroads lies in the fact that the U.S. Dollar Index—a measure of the dollar’s exchange rate against a basket of major world currencies (not its domestic purchasing power)—is now sitting right at a major long-term support level around 100.

This level has held for several years and has triggered significant rebounds in the past, including the most recent bounce in September 2024, which created a headwind for metals over the next few months.

How the U.S. Dollar Index behaves from here will have a major influence on the direction of commodities and precious metals.

A decisive break below this level would likely open the door to a deeper decline — potentially into the low 90s or even lower — which would be highly bullish for commodities and could propel gold toward the $4,000 mark and silver to $40-$50+.

However, if the Dollar Index finds solid support at the 100 level, it’s likely to bounce — which would pose a headwind for commodities. That said, I believe gold, which remains in a strong uptrend, would likely consolidate and cool off rather than experience a sharp pullback. “

Chuck again…  Nothing more to add to all the talk this morning regarding the dollar and its current situation… 

Market Prices 4/21/ 2025: American Style: A$.6424, kiwi .6010, C$ .7242, euro 1.1542, sterling 1.3395, Swiss $1.2417, European Style: rand 18.7037, krone 10.3958, SEK 9.5009, forint 352. 84, zloty 3.7039, koruna 21.7020, RUB 81.20, yen 140.70, sing 1.3092, HKD 7.7602, INR 85.17, China 7.2893, peso 19.70, BRL 5.8268, BBDXY 1,214.57, Dollar Index 99.56, Oil $63.20, 10-year 4.40%, Silver $32.99, Platinum $978.00, Palladium $963.00, Copper $4.84, and Gold… $3,404.83

That’s it for today… I finally got out of the house for a little time last Friday, that wasn’t sitting out back, reading, or going for a short walk…  I got to be with my friends, Rick, Duane, Mike, Denny, Kevin, Lisa, and Debbie, Nancy, and Kathy went with me! I hadn’t seen some of those folks since December, so a lot of catching up was due…  I was supposed to be going to lunch with my classmates this Thursday, but that’s the day I’m due for my next infusion…  So, there will be no Pfennig this Thursday, as I will be getting my next infusion…  It was an awful weekend for St. Louis sports… My beloved Cardinals got swept in NY, Our Blues lost their first playoff game, and the City soccer club couldn’t score again…  UGH!  Our Blues had the lead with 10 minutes left, and then they didn’t… Just like that! I was so frustrated with their play in the 3rd period….  Oh well.. We move on…  Jackson Browne takes us to the finish line today with his song: Ready Or Not… I hope you have a Marvelous Easter Monday today and will Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals take liberties with the dollar on Wednesday
• What’s going on with the ECB?

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all!  Well, my beloved Cardinals didn’t really find their bats on Wednesday, but found them enough to win 4-1 and win the rubber gaee of the 3-game series with the Astros… It was a day game, which in times past would have had me at the Ballpark to watch the game in person, but with me being able to walk about a 50 yards right now, me going to the ballpark was out of the question…  Sugar Ray greets me this morning with their song: Every Morning… 

Yes, wouldn’t it be great to wake up every morning and look at the price of Gold and be able to that the short paper traders didn’t gain an inch the previous day? Before you answer, that it’s what happened yesterday, and Gold was left to trade on its own devives… And it gained… Drum roll please…  $139 on the day to close at $3,354.. Holy Cow! Now that’s the way to drive the ball out of the ballpark!  I know, I know it wasn’t slow and steady, but like I said on Monday, I’m not going to shake a stick at it!, like it had done something wrong! 

The dollar started the day down Index points in the BBDXY, and then proceeded to lose more as the day went on, with the loss coming in at the end of the day,  of 10 index points to close the day at 1,224…  The fear went rampant through the markets again yesterday, of a Trade War… I guess they were paying attention to Jamie Dimon’s warning that I brought to you yesterday. 

The euro traded near the 114 figure before the rug got pulled form under it… The ECB issued a warning that they saw a rate cut coming more sooner than later,  And that did the trick! You see, even during the last weak dollar trend that saw the euro climb to 1.50, The ECB (European Central Bank)  whined and moaned about it’s value just about every day!  At that time, German was a manufacturing giant, and their exports to the U.S. were very expensive, given the price of the euro…   But The Secretary of the Treasury, in the 80’s had this to say about the strength in the dollar, before it was brought down after the Plaza Accord in 1985… “The dollar is our Currency, but it’s your problem”…   or something like that…  At that time a strong dollar was the pride of the U.S. Gov’t… Nowadays, they don’t give a hoot about the dollar..  

The price of Silver tried to keep up with the Gold price, but didn’t have the legs to run with Gold, this time… Silver gained $58 on the day, to close at $32.75…  I don’t know if you’ve noticed or not, but ever since the price of Silver traded over $32 at the beginning of March, it hasn’t come close to getting there after the shsort paper traders took it down nearly $10 in week… Silver has done a nice job of recovering lits lost ground, albeit slowly…  

The price of Oil bumped higher to end the day yesterday trading with a $63 handle…  And the 10-year Treasury bond saw some buying and the yield on the bond slipped to 4.31$… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar got sold further down the river, with the BBDXY starting today down 2 more index points at 1.227… I read yesterday that the old Dollar Index had fallen below the line in the sand that would be the 100 figure, and that, in the writer’s opinion, signaled that the dollar was in deep trouble of losing even more value (if that’s possible, given the dollar is now worth pennies.)  

Gold is seeing some profit taking after a record day of price rise, yesterday and is down $5 to start our day today and Silver is down 15-cents to start the day… It does appear to be profit taking to me, and not short paper trading, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the short paper traders enter the markets here and use the profit taking as their excuse to sell… Not that they need an excuse, after seeing their brazen engineered takedowns in the past…  Boy, I’m full of seashells and balloons this morning, eh? (McGuire)  

The price of Oil remained trading with a $63 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury remined trading with a 4.31% yield… The selling of Treasuries has abated folks, for now that is…  In my humble country boy opinion, I think the Chinese wanted to show the U.S. what it could to its financial system if they continued to go down the trade war rabbit hole, and they then sat back and watched the U.S. Treasury market go haywire last week…  I say the selling is over for now, but it could very easily return if we, as a country, continue to tick off the Chinese… 

I read this morning that China has decided to leave importing Oil from the U.S. and turn to Canada for its Oil imports…  And that’s not a real bad thing in my opinion, I’ve long been of the opinion that whet ever Oil we garner here in the U.S. needs to stay in the U.S.  Why on earth would we, a country so rich in raw material be beholden to other countries for these materials?   I’m just saying… 

Well… The fear that gripped the markets last week, has returned… The VIX (Volatility index) rose 2 BPS yesterday, still noting like the way it sored last week, but rose nonetheless… So, her we go again… Riding this wave of volatility… Hang on to your hats folks,…

I don’t know what the problem is that that The ECB has with a strong euro… But , it sure slhows that they do have a problem with a strong euro, given that there hadn’t been any discussion  recently about rate movements from the ECB, and then suddenly when the euro reached 1.14 a level it hasn’t seen in a long time, the ECB comes out and starts warning its markets about a rate cut…   Coninquidink? I don’t think so…

Well, trade negotiations are ongoing as the countries saddled with high tariffs attempt to work out new trade agreements… You know, someone, I don’t remember who it was, but someone asked me to tell them my wish for peace in the world…  And I said, ” we need trade agreements, where both parties win, so in other words a win-win trade agreement, and go back to the smooth global trade that existed before the plandemic, that would go a long way to normalizing the Globe and everyone would be happy. ” Shiny Happy People (REM)  

The tough nut to crack here with negotiations will be China…  The U.S. is to blame just as much as China is here for the tensions that are rising between the two super nations.  China is puffing out its chest, and the so is the U.S. to see to blinks first… I can tell you that from my experience it won’t be China…  Although they did lay out some parameters that they need to have before negotiations can begin… Let’s go to the Bloomberg.com for the skinny there:  

“While both China and the US probably want to see tariff rates lowered due to domestic pressure, negotiations are “unlikely to lead to a meaningful de-escalation,” said Michelle Lam, Greater China economist at Societe Generale SA.

“There is a bit more clarity on what China is looking from: respect, consistency and a point person,” she said. “So now the ball is in US court on whether they can meet these demands. But that is still difficult — especially if the aim is to contain China’s rise.”

Chuck Again… So, China feels like they been spit on, and dissed?  I can see that…  But c’mon this is the real world and things will be said that shouldn’t be taken personally…   So, there you have it, all in a  nu shell… China has come out and said what they need to see to begin negotiations, now it’s up to the U.S. to respond to these parameters…  I doubt anything comes of this, these two countries are too far down the rabbit hole of a pending trade war to come out…  You know that reminds me of a saying that my dad used to tell me…  “When you’re in a hole, stop digging”…  

A lot of ink has been used to talk about China and the pending Trade War… I thought that today was a good  of time to talk about it as any other, given the lack of news on the newswire today. But to me, it seems like a bunch of chests puffing and saber rattling…

So, what we have today, is a clean up of the day yesterday, which saw the fear grip the markets once again, Gold soar, Silver get positive, and the dollar get treated like a rental…  Treasuries weren’t sold to make the dollar selling worse… No, like I said the other day, this dollar selling is a case of: We’re getting the hell out of Dodge, and this is the last chance saloon for the dollar…   

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the March print of Retail Sales, of which I had said it would be a decent print, and it was… With Retail Sales rising 1.4%… Not earth shattering but a rise in the end, and I’m actually somewhat surprised by the growth number in that I would love to look under the hood and see what means were used to secure those Retail Sales… Credit Cards?   rotary charges?  I would have to think that consumers went further into debt…  

Industrial Production in the U.S. in March printed a neg. -.3%…  So, there was no joy in Mudville for that print!  And Capacity Utilization was pretty much same-o, smae-o as the Feb print so the glaring black eye on the day’s reports was the Industrial Production print.. 

To recap… The fear was back in the markets yesterday, and the selling of the dollar wen full bore again… The BBDXY lost 10 index points for the day yesterday, and the PPT was nowhere to be found…    The selling was just too strong for the PPT to do anything about it…  Even if they were champing of the bit to intervene, they stayed on the sidelines… The ECB threw a cat among the pigeons yesterday, coming out and saying that the  timing for a rate cut was good…  The euro remained trading above 1.13, but was cllosing in on 1.14 when the ECB told the markets that they were going to debase the currency again… 

For What It’s Worth… This article came to me from the good folks at GATA, and it’s about how while the U.S. leaders may claim that the U.S. has a strong dollar policy, it rings hollow right now and the article can be found here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/us-strong-dollar-policy-rings-increasingly-hollow-mcgeever-2025-04-15/

Or, here’s your snippet: “U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday repeated the mantra we’ve heard from his nine predecessors:

“We have a strong dollar policy.”

While the words are familiar, the conviction behind them may have softened.

The ‘strong dollar’ policy has always been about more than just the exchange rate, although a more expensive currency can help keep inflation and interest rates low. This policy has represented the world’s trust in the U.S., and, consequently, the greenback’s role as the lynchpin of the global economy.

But times have changed since 1995. A lot. The world today is losing faith in the dollar, losing trust in the government institutions backing it, and losing confidence in America’s role as leader of the ‘free world’.

Back then, the North American Free Trade Agreement was in its infancy, China was about to emerge as an economic force, globalization was accelerating, trade and regulatory barriers were being torn down, and global capital flows were exploding. The dollar was pivotal to all that and it soared for the next seven years, right up until the dotcom crash.

The dollar slumped around 40% in the following seven years to the Global Financial Crisis and then drifted for several more years after its post-Lehman surge. But this didn’t stop central banks from growing their dollar FX reserves to $4.5 trillion in 2015 from around $1 trillion in 2001.

That was a strong dollar, the world’s reserve currency in its prime.

U.S. dollar’s share of FX reserves reported to the IMF has been gradually falling

The dollar has remained dominant by any measure. Central banks’ dollar holdings have largely flat-lined for the past decade, but private sector buyers have increased their exposure significantly. The greenback is still the most dominant currency in FX reserves, global trade and financial market trading.

But as Steven B. Kamin, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and Mark Sobel, U.S. chairman at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, have written, future dollar dominance rests on three factors: “preserving the underpinnings of the dollar’s global role; maintaining trust in the U.S. as a reliable partner; and avoiding overuse or abuse of financial sanctions.

Doubt now hangs over all three as the Trump administration’s ‘America First’ agenda has caused foreign investors to look at the dollar in a new light.

Last November, before his confirmation as Chair of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisers, Stephen Miran published a paper, ‘A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System’, in which he argued that the dollar, from a trade perspective, is “persistently over-valued in large part because dollar assets function as the world’s reserve currency.”

Perhaps more importantly, he also noted that while Trump supports the dollar’s reserve status, he had floated “substantial changes” to dollar policy. “Sweeping tariffs and a shift away from strong dollar policy can have some of the broadest ramifications of any policies in decades, fundamentally reshaping the global trade and financial systems.”

Chuck Again…  yes, the dollar does remain entrenched as the reserve currency around the Globe, but the dents in its armor are beginning to grow in size, and are more visible to every man… 

Market Prices 4/17/ 2025: American Style: A$ .6363, kiwi 5941, C$ .7202, euro 1.1357, sterling 1.3250, Swiss $1.227, European Style: rand 18.8266, krone 10.5318, SEK 9.7178, forint 358.76, zloty 3.7625, koruna 22.0126, RUB 81.81, yen 142.58, sing 1.3120, HKD 7.7637, INR 86.57, China 7.2963, peso 19.90, BRL 5.8739, 

BBDXY 1,227, Dollar Index 99.56, Oil $53.26, 10-year 4.31%, Silver $32.39, Platinum $968.00, Palladium $961.00, Copper $4.65, and Gold… $3,335.80 

That’s it for today and this week… Just when I thought it was safe to enter the markets again, the fear gripped the markets again yesterday, and will probably be around for the last two trading days this week, so hold onto to your hats…  And all the Gold Bugs out there… Are you smiling like the Cheshire Cat? I can’t imagine a world where you would be unhappy with Gold’s rise…   My beloved Cardinas travel to Citi Fiedd to play that pond scum, I mean the Mets the next 4 games… I see the Mets a lot in Spring Training… And it appears they are moving in the right direction, abeit with their owner paying out HUGE Contracts to the players… He’s trying to get the best team money can buy… Oh well, it is what it is… Looks like it’s going to rain on the kids’ easter egg hunt Sunday, as holy week comes to an end…  UGH!  The band, Jet, takes us to the finish line today with their song: Are You Gonna Be My Girl?  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a fantastico Good Friday tomorrow, and a blessed Easter on Sunday!  And please, oh please, with sugar on top, Be Good To Yourself! 

• currencies & metals rally strongly overnight
• China posts a strong GDP…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, after a night of watching my beloved Cardinals ring the bats in an 8-3 victory over the Astros, the bats went silent last night, and the Cardinals were shut out for the first time this season… UGH! No consistency in this team that’s for sure!  The Marshall Tucker Band greets me this morning with their great song: 24 Hours At A Time… 

Well, the dollar rallied a bit yesterday, gaining 4 index points in the BBDXY, but the euro remained above the 1.13 handle, so not all was not lost in the currencies… The best performing currency in the last week is the Russian ruble…  And posted a gain yesterday to a price of 80… We’ve seen the ruble rally before, only to lose its rally a short time after… So, there’s that…  keep in mind that this is an investment and not a political position!  And even with this rally the ruble is still a long, long way from the level it traded when we first started offering the ruble… Which was 35… 

Gold fought through the short paper trading yesterday to post a gain of $9, and Silver did the same to post a gain of 13-cents…  Ok, back to normal trading, and that makes me happy to see…  Yes, I was happy with Gold’s $93 gain last Thursday, but that was NOT normal trading.. That was panic with fear buying  that the sky was falling…  But Chicken Little didn’t get her way, and the sky didn’t fall, so Gold goes back to normal trading… 

There’s still fear in the markets folks, but it was manageable to start the week…  The VIX has backed off of the level seen last week (52), and had dropped to a 30 level… So, still more volatile than it had been, but not as Volatile! 

The price of Oil remained trading in the $61 handle yesterday, and the 100-year Treasury actually saw some buying yesterday, so the yield dropped a few BPS to 4.33%…  It wasn’t a HUGE amount of buying, so I don’t suspect the Fed Heads from doing any of their yield curve control buying…  

In the overnight markets last night… Well the dollar is back on the chopping block, as it got ambushed overnight getting sold without Treasuries getting sold… So, this selling was just straight out get rid of my dollars selling… The BBDXY is down 6 index points to start our day, and the euro is within  spittin’ distance of 1.14….   Gold’s 2-day respite from all the fear buying, ended overnight, as the shiny metal is up $60 to start our day today, and Silver is up 65-cents!  Like I said the other day, I’m not going to shake stick at a $60 gain in one day, but I would prefer that the gains were more normal… But I get it… The fear in the markets prevails, and who can blame anyone striking up the fear again?

The price of Oil remained in trading with a $61 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury is 4.33% this morning… I did a double take on the 10-year Treasury screen for the yield hadn’t moved overnight, but after refreshing the screen just for good measure, I showed the same figure, so it is what it is… 

There was some news overnight from China.. Here’s the skinny from reuters.com: “China’s first-quarter economic growth outstripped expectations, underpinned by solid consumption and industrial output.”

Chuck again… Yes, the 1^st QTR GDP Growth in China was 5.4%…  That’s a pretty strong GDP without gov’t spending…  And the People’s Bank of China allowed the renminbi to gain ground on the dollar overnight…  

When China was booking 10+ percentage gains in GDP a decade ago, I used to tell you dear readers that we could believe about one-half of what China told us…  I don’t think it’s that bad any longer, so we’ll go with the 5.4% gain and that’s that! 

Here’s some good news for the euro that ran in the Bloomberg.com this morning, “Europe’s common currency hit its strongest level in three years at the end of last week as economic uncertainty radiating from US tariff policy raised questions about the dollar’s traditional haven role.

Three out of four options contracts bought Friday were for more euro gains, according to data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation. Traders say hedge funds are targeting a move to $1.20. And strategists at Mizuho International Plc see rising odds that the currency hits that level — the highest since mid-2021 — in the coming months.”

Where is all those naysayers that were calling for the euro to fall to parity with the dollar a month ago? Long time passing. (Seeger) .. It’s been a long… Long time coming, it’s going to b a long time gone… (CSN)  I thought at the time when those forecasts were made that they were being a little too hard on the Beaver. (euro), I watched an old episode of Leave It To Beaver yesterday… So there’s that!   

Another currency that has been bought like funnel cakes at a State Fair, is the Swiss franc… I was interviewed by good friend, Dennis Miller, for his letter www.milleronthemoney.com  last week, and it I was asked who might be the winners and losers in Europe…  I talked about the Swiss franc being a winner, along with the euro, IF, their leaders changed some things, and the losers being the Club Med currencies (Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal) ,for not being able to get their debts in line with the Eurozone requirements…  I said in the interview that I thought the Club Med countries would be asked to leave the euro…    That’s a strong statement, folks… But as Cliff Claven explained to Norm on the old Cheers show… The slowest Buffalo makes the herd faster… And the Club Med countries would be the slowest Buffalo here… 

Remember when I told you here, that the money supply was gaining again? Well, I found his on Mises.org “Money-supply growth rose year over year in February for the seventh month in a row, the first time this has happened since mid-2022. The current trend in money-supply growth suggests a continued reversal of more than a year of historically large contractions in the money supply that occurred throughout much of 2023 and 2024.”

And let me repeat myself here: Money Supply growth is equal to inflation coming…  or Money Supply is inflation… No wonder the future inflation outlook for the U.S. is rising daily…   

And what have I taught you regarding the Gov’t and inflation for over probably 2 decades now?  That the U.S. Gov’t wants inflation , they need inflation, as the only means left to them to deal with the $36 Trillion Debt, they are hoping to inflate the debt down to a workable level of debt…   The Gov’t doesn’t care about how the high inflation will affect you and me, and the middle class…   So, make sure you have investments that are inflation beaters…  Got Gold?

I think the action or non-action in the markets so far this week, (2 days) has had more to do with market participants wanting fresh news, as they had already traded on the news last week. And the Data Cupboard could hold some sway on that front, but then most times in recent days, the markets ignore the Data Cupboard… And I can’t blame them, given all the hedonic adjustments the Gov’t agencies throw into the data prints…   But what happened overnight is the question here…  The selling of the dollar was strong,  I think it has more to do with the comment that the U.S. leaders are trying to get across regarding the delayed tariffs on the electronics from China, and that is that the delay is only temporary… In other words, we think that your euphoria in the tech stocks is unwarranted, and you need to calm down….   

Speaking of the U.S. Data Cupboard… Today, we’ll see the color of the March Retail Sales report…  As I said yesterday, the BHI (Butler Household Index) indicates that this should be a decent print in Retail Sales… Nothing to write home about, but decent… And positive, after printing a negative number for February.  We’ll also see Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production for March… I don’t expect either of those two to ignite dollar buying today, so, we’ll just move along now, for these are not the droids we’re looking for…  Oh, and there will be 3 Fed Head speakers out on the road today spilling their lies, and false readings…  

Do, you get the feeling that I do NOT hold the Fed Heads in high regard?  Geez, I don’t know how that could happen! HA! 

To recap… The dollar rallied a bit on Tuesday, gaining 4 index points in the BBDXY, after a getting sold down the river all of last week… Gold gained $9 on the day, and Chuck believes that market participants are awaiting fresh news to trade on. The fear is still out there folks, just not as unbearable as it was last week. The euro, Swiss franc, and ruble are the three currencies Chuck highlights today, let’s hope he didn’t jinx them…

For What It’s Worth… Well, I told you on Monday that I was loaded for bear with FWIW articles this week, but every now and then, I come across a different article that is timelier, and it buts the line with the FWIW articles on tap…  This is JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon talking about the effects on the economy that A Trade War will cause, and it can be found here: JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon warns trade war risks recession and higher prices

This is a Financial Times article that worked for me, without a subscription, so hopefully it’s still free to view for you:

Or, here’s your snippet: “JPMorgan Chase chief Jamie Dimon has warned that a global trade war risks tipping the US economy into a recession and driving prices higher, while undermining the country’s long-term alliances.

In his widely read annual letter to shareholders published on Monday, Dimon said the tariffs announced last week by US President Donald Trump “will likely increase inflation and are causing many to consider a greater probability of a recession”.

“The quicker this issue is resolved, the better because some of the negative effects increase cumulatively over time and would be hard to reverse,” Dimon wrote.

He said many uncertainties remained from the planned tariffs, including potential retaliation from other countries and their impact on business confidence, investments and capital flows.

“I am hoping that after negotiations, the long-term effect will have some positive benefits for the United States,” Dimon added. “My most serious concern is how this will affect America’s long-term economic alliances.”

Chuck again… Man, you would think that Mr. Dimon was reading the Pfennig, for these are things that I’ve said previously about a trade war! 

Market Prices 4/16/2025: American Style: A$ .6376, kiwi .5919, C$ .7184, euro 1.1366, sterling 1.3268, Swiss $1.2229, European Style: rand 18.8639, krone 10.5798, SEK 9.8270, forint 358.86, zloty 3.7784, koruna 22.0166, RUB 82.39, yen 142.72, sing 1.3139, HKD 7.7600, INR 85.68, China 7.3059, peso 20.08, BRL 5.8860, BBDXY 1,228, Dollar Index 99.57, Oil $61.89, 10-year 4.33%, Silver $32.89, Platinum $ 968.00, Palladium $ 978.00, Copper $4.69, and Gold… $3,295.27

That’s it for today… I’m doing much better these days, my breathing has almost returned 100% to normal, and my heart racing has calmed down…  I walked further than I had the previous day yesterday, without problems or needing to stop and rest… I’ll attempt to walk even further today!  Yesterday, I talked about how my younger sister, Terri, visited me…  I have 2 sisters left after having lost my two older sisters… I told her that I was seriously thinking my time had come with this last hospital trip,  and then told her, Grandad died at 70, our dad died at 70,  I was oh-so close to 70! But it was not my time… And I thank the Good Lord for that!  Our Blues are in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, after missing them the last 2 years! They start in Winnipeg this weekend, the same team they started the playoffs against in 2019, when the Blues won the Cup! Good Karma? I sure hope so!    Let’s Go Blues!  Three Dog Night take us to the finish line today, with their song: Easy To Be Hard…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the selling disappears on Monday…
• The rot on the dollar’s vine has been exposed…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, a good sign for me occurred yesterday, and will happen Tomorrow… The company that brought out the oxygen generator, is coming to pick it up tomorrow! That means that I’m on my own, which I’ve been for about 6 days now…  My beloved Cardinals sure play better at home than they do on the road… My dad taught me long ago, that for a team to be good, they need to play .750 ball at home, and .500 on the road…  So, there’s some work there, on the road, to go for the team…  My younger sister, Terri, came to visit me yesterday… She lives in Houston, but was here for a visit… It was a nice visit, and it was good to see her again.  Gordon Lightfoot greets me this morning with his song: Carefree Highway… 

Pfennig tradition calls for this :Let me tell you how it will be

There’s one for you, nineteen for me Cause I’m the taxman

Yeah, I’m the taxman

Should five per cent appear too small? Be thankful I don’t take it all

Cause I’m the taxman Yeah, I’m the taxman

The robbers of our hard-earned money, come for your share to run the country today, folks… It’s Tax Day… 

Do you get the feeling that I despise Taxes…  Well, in case you missed the signal, I do not like Taxes, I would not like them here or there. I would not like them anywhere. I do not like green eggs and ham. My apologies to Dr. Seuss… 

Well, after a week that will go down in history, this week started with a whimper…  The dollar moved sideways, which means it didn’t get sold down the river, nor did it gain any ground.  The BBDXY ended the day at 1,230, down 2 index points, but really, a wash on the day for the currencies.  Gold was sold by $27 to start the day/ week yesterday… I told you yesterday that I wasn’t sure if the selling was profit taking or short selling but was pretty sure the short Gold paper traders were at the scene of the crime.  Gold closed the day at $3,209.56

The short Gold paper traders watched as Gold first was rallying and up to $3,260, and then as Ed Steer said it, “something happened”… And Gold ended up losing $58 in a NY Minutes, and then proceeded to go below its starting price to its loss for the day… Short paper traders those dirty dogs…  Silver was treated much the same as Gold, as Silver saw an intraday move of more than 70-cents! The metal was allowed to gain 3-cents on the day, in the end and closed the day at $32.26… 

The price of Oil slipped a bit and ended the day trading with a $61 handle, while the selling in the 10-year Treasury was absent… The yield in the 10-year ended the day at $4.43%…  Same level it was to start the day…  I’m somewhat happy that the selling abated, for now that is…  I was beginning to fear that the wall was crumbling down, and there was no stopping it from happening, no Fed Head, no POTUS, not anyone, and that was a bad fear, folks… 

In the overnight markets last night, the dollar bobbed along in the water, buoyed by the wake from the ships passing through…  In other words, the dollar was stuck in the mud, and didn’t gain or lose any ground overnight, and starts today at 1.230….   1,230 is a long way from home for the dollar, which started April trading around 1,271 in the BBDXY…  The dollar’s loss of value isn’t of major significance just yet, but it is worrisome for the dollar bugs… And they should be worried!  The rot on the dollar’s vine has been exposed and there’s no “not seeing it”…   

Gold is up $10 to start our day today…  and Silver is up 2-cents…  The price of Oil remains at $61 and the selling in the 10-year Treasury sure has abated quite a bit… Makes one wonder what the hell is going on here?  But then that’s just me… 

Where do we go from here? Well, with the rot on the dollar’s vine exposed, one would have to think that more dollar selling is coming… Now, I wouldn’t bet the farm on that happening, but I would make a shiny quarter bet, like the one’s we used to make on the trade desk at Mark Twain Bank… I would like to think that the smart people in the world, know that the U.S. debt is unsustainable and that financing the coming additions to the $36 Trillion in current debt is going to be a tough row to hoe…  I’m still of the opinion that a new round of quantitative easing is in the cards for the Fed Heads, and our economy… But that’s down the road, so not so “today”… 

Did you know that today, is the day in our country’s history that President Abe Lincoln died from the gunshot wound that John Wilkes Booth delivered to him the previous night?  Imagine what a different path the U.S. would have gone on to take, if, that hadn’t taken place? The same goes true for the assassination of John F. Kennedy…  I visited the JFK assassination museum in Dallas years ago, and came away with the conspiracy theory that he was set up to be murdered…  That’s my story and I’m sticking to it! Not that it has anything to do with the markets today, so c’mon Chuck get with the program here! 

I don’t know why I went down that rabbit hole folks… I had it in my mind that I wanted to talk about was the death of Abe Lincoln, and then the next thing I knew I was talking about JFK, and conspiracies…  

I know I’ve talked about Ed Steer quite a bit lately, but… For good reason! Here’s Ed in his letter this morning, that can be found here: www.edsteergoldsilver.com   “Without doubt — and if left to their own devices, all four precious metals would haven closed at God-only-knows what prices yesterday. It was particularly true of gold, where the collusive commercial traders of whatever stripe weren’t even going to allow it a sniff of the unchanged mark.

Silver’s resilience was amazing, especially considering its low volume — and why they allowed it to close up on the day was a surprise. However, they did stop it from penetrating its 50-day moving average to the upside for the second day in a row.

However, it still remains about $2.25 below its high tick of a couple of weeks back before ‘da boyz’ crushed it — and is almost the sole reason why the gold/silver ratio has blown out to 100 to 1.”

I find it better to give you the words of the person that made the quotes, then to paraphrase them in my own way…   

I read this morning that 60% of CEO’s polled believe that a recession is coming, soon…  I’m of the opinion that we’re already in a recession that will be confirmed by the powers that be at some point in the future, when it doesn’t matter any longer…  Did you pick up my sarcasm there?  

I’m of the opinion that recession should not be worried about…  These recessions usually happen after a period of boom, but the Fed Heads have seen to it that the economy evades these recessions, and that’s a bad thing, in my opinion…   I think a financial collapse is more worrisome than a recession, folks…  And we were oh-so-close to touching on that last week…  Another round of selling like we saw last week, and this whole shootin’ match will break…  I’m just saying…   And I have something for you in the FWIW section today from Ray Dalio, someone that should be listened to at all times!

And here’s something to think about: “there is a liquidity crisis according to JPMorgan.”

To which Fed Head Susan Collins replied: “we’re not seeing liquidity concerns overall”

Yeah, just like the Fed Heads didn’t see inflation, preferring to call it “transitory”…   These Fed Heads are clueless, folks, so don’t be looking for them to bail us out of this mess… They haven’t got the gray matter to figure this out…

I took this conversation from Zerohedge.com, and they concluded the article with this: “So while the Fed may ignore warnings by entities – such as this website – that liquidity is gone, imagine a world where there is a full-blown funding crisis, banks are failing and the Fed is blamed for ignoring not just the all too clear signs, but also ignoring a warning from the largest US bank, JPMorgan.

That is not a world that Jerome Powell, no matter how much he wants to listen to Bill Dudley and crush Donald Trump, would want to be in.”

Chuck again…  I hate to be the bearer of bad news, here folks, but this was getting very ugly… And it’s all driven by our debt… The need to finance it, pay for it, and deal with it… I’ve been warning everyone about this ever-increasing debt for decades now, and nothing as been done about it, and now, the chickens have come home to roost…  There’s a fox in the chicken coop… And all the chickens are screaming, The Sky is Falling!

The U.S. Data Cupboard today already printed the April reading of the Empire State ISM.. (manufacturing) and it printed a negative -.1%… Nothing to see here, just move along…  Tomorrow’s Data Cupboard will have a few real economic reports for us to view, including Retail Sales for March… The BHI tells me that this will be a decent report, so the dollar has that going for it tomorrow… 

To recap… The selling has abated in stocks, bond, the dollar, and moved to the metals yesterday…  The short paper traders were making it known that they are still here yesterday…  Chuck is fearing a financial collapse, and that is something that everyone should look into…  Chuck also talks about Abe Lincon this morning… 

For What It’s Worth… I teased this article above, regarding Ray Dalio and what he had to say…  Well, with no further ado, you can find this article here: Billionaire Ray Dalio: ‘I’m worried about something worse than a recession’

Or, here’s your snippet: “Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio said Sunday that he is worried that the turmoil resulting from President Donald Trump’s tariff and economic policies will threaten the global economy.

“Right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession,” Dalio said on NBC News’ “Meet the Press.” “And I’m worried about something worse than a recession if this isn’t handled well.”

The hedge fund billionaire said he’s more concerned about trade disruptions, mounting U.S. debt, and emerging world powers bringing down the international economic and geopolitical structure that has been in place since the end of World War II.

“We are going from multilateralism, which is largely an American world order type of thing, to a unilateral world order in which there’s great conflict,” he said.

Ray Dalio on Trump’s tariffs: I agree with the problem, I am very concerned about the solution. Dalio said five forces drive history: the economy, internal political conflict, the international order, technology, and acts of nature such as floods and pandemics. Trump’s tariffs have understandable goals, Dalio said, but they are being implemented in a “very disruptive” way that creates global conflict.”

Chuck again… I’m of the opinion that much like the old E.F. Hutton commercial, that when Ray Dalio speaks, people should listen…  I’m just saying…

Market Prices 4/15/2025: American Style: A$ .6353, kiwi 5916, C$.6995, euro 1.1322, sterling 1.3222, Swiss $1.2225, European Style: rand 18.8265, krone 10.6858, SEK 9.7764, forint 360.21, zloty 3.7839, koruna 22.1459, RUB 82.10, yen 142.96, sing 1.3170, HKD 7.7679, INR 85.77, China 7.3166, peso 20.06, BRL 5.8583, BBDXY 1,230, Dollar Index 99.82, Oil $61.17, 10-year 4.43%, Silver $32.24, Platinum $962.00, Palladium $962.00, Copper $4.66, and Gold… $3,219.64

That’s it for today… My beloved Cardinals beat the Astros last night 8-3… The game started at 6:45, a time that should start all night games, as the game ended at decent time, and I was able to watch it end!  I have a really difficult time staying awake for games that start late… I fall asleep watching them, and then I wake up and the game is over…  My sleeping during the day has abated… That’s a good thing, in my opinion… But I did like my naps whenever they were short and not drawn out 3 hours!  Radiohead takes us to the finish line today with their song: Karma Police…   I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar gets sold down the river…
• The fear factor entered the markets last week

Good day… And a Marvelous Monday to you… Well, progress is here! I’m off of oxygen, even when I get up to walk around!  I climb the stairs without breathing hard, etc. And my visit last week to the oncologist was fruitful, because my lungs were clear, no wheezing, crackling, and free air movement… So, the Pneumonia is gone, as is the E. Coli that was in my lungs… Now, I just need to get my strength back!  Then, I’ll be a happy camper once again! I want to thank every one of you who sent along get well wishes and prayers…  They were put to good use!  And I’m feeling much better just when the dollar is circling the bowl… In the words of the Church Lady, “Isn’t that nice?”  The Main Ingredient greets me this morning with their one hit wonder song: Everybody Plays The Fool… 

I sure hope that you who held euros, and didn’t panic sell them when the pundits said it was going to parity to the dollar, that you’re basking in the sun now… The euro crossed over the 1.12 handle on Thursday last week and hasn’t looked back! The BBDXY has lost a ton of ground, and things couldn’t look more dire for the dollar than they have in a long time!  The BBDXY lost 18 points on Thursday, and that was AFTER the POTUS announced that he was delaying the tariffs on all countries except China, which he upped the ante there to 125% tariffs… And then lost another 12 index points on Friday… The rot on the dollar’s vine is finally getting exposed for all to see, but what’s next for the dollar? 

Here’s what I’m seeing regarding the dollar… China is selling their Treasuries and buying physical Gold with the proceeds. That means that dollars are getting sold, with every Treasury bond or note that China sells… And that has the dollar looking for a bd that’s not coming, any time soon… Shoot Rudy, even the PPT hasn’t dared to enter the fray with their Exchange Stabilization Fund treasure chest of funding to buy dollars, and pull it back from the cliff, that has been the PPT’s MO in past times when the dollar looked vulnerable, but in those cases, the dollar wasn’t in as much peril as it is now… 

We’ve ticked off China… And they’re saying, Well, we’ll see how you fare going forward when we’re not at the Bond Auction window to sop up all your treasuries! 

On Friday, the BBDXY started the day down another 6 index points, and didn’t fare too well during the day, losing 12 more index points to end the week at 1,233…. The euro climbed above the 1.12 figure to a 1.13 handle… This is getting crazy folks… Even in the last weak dollar trend that lasted from 2002, to 2011, I never saw the dollar get handled like it is this time… During the last weak dollar trend, even then the trading in the dollar wasn’t a ONE-WAY STREET! There were days when the dollar rebounded a bit, but this has become a rout of the dollar… So… Did you hold on to your currencies, while the dollar romped and played, these last few years?  If you did, I know you’re smiling like the Cheshire Cat right now… And if you panicked and sold…  So sad, too bad…  For didn’t I tell you to batten down the hatches, and if you did anything, go out and buy some more currencies at those cheaper prices! 

The price of Oil rebounded a bit late last week, and finished the week trading with a $ 61 handle… And the 10-year Treasury, (along with other long maturities) continued to get sold…  Hege Funds, Chinese, and others are joining to cause a Treasury liquidity problem…  The “rupture” in bonds, has been quite scary… The yield of the 10-year has risen from 4.01% on 4/1, to 4.48% on 4/11… In just 10 days!

I don’t believe I’ve seen a time when the dollar, Treasuries, and equities are all getting sold at once…  Usually, the dollar gets bought in times of crisis and bonds get bought when equites get sold…  But not this time! I read this weekend that one guy said that the dollar has lost “it’s brand”…  That’s an interesting way to look at, don’t you think? 

What would happen if Treasuries went “no bid”? All hell would break loose, so let’s not think about that happening… But if the selling becomes something that can’t be taken on by dealers, then the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel would have to open the spigots, and start buying bonds again in Quantitative Easing…  Something that was promised to us would never happen again… Well, I see it happening if the Treasury selling persists… And I do believe it will, because we’ve awoken the sleeping Giant…  China… 

The price of Gold has burst higher than could be expected… At least by me… I’m a conservative when it comes to price movements, and would like to see slow and steady increases, but when Gold gains $93 on a day, you can’t shake a stick at it, you have to smile and look forward to the next day!  Gold did gain $93 on Thursday and then followed that up with another gain on Friday of $60, to end the week at $3,238.00. Silver is lagging Gold’s rally, and the Gold/Silver ratio has spread out to 101… To me, that just means Silver has some catching up to do, so the percentage performances of Silver should get back to outperforming Gold soon…  And Friday was as a good a day as any to get Silver started, as it gained $1.08 to end the week at $32.34, which was a 3.47% gain… 

The Good Folks at GATA sent me this quote, and I liked it! “GoldCore’s Jan Skoyles tonight makes as good a case for protecting yourself with gold as you’re likely to see this month, remarking about gold’s sharp rise in recent months: “This isn’t just a rally. This is a rupture.” 

The price of Oil is recovering, and ended the week trading with a $61 handle…  And the yield on the 10-year Treasury ended the week with a yield of 4.56%…  I see this selling of Treasuries pushing the yield envelope across the desk to near 5%… That’s a lot of rot on the 10-year’s vine, folks… 

Circling back to Gold for a second…  I truly believe that the rise in the Gold price is screaming “Fear”…  So, put that in your wallet and remember who told you that! 

In the overnight markets last night…  The markets settled down a bit, with the BBDXY losing just 1 index point to start our day/ week today. Gold is getting sold at this moment in time, and at this point, I can’t tell whether the selling in Gold & Silver is profit taking, or short selling… I’ll need more to see as the day goes on… But I would bet my bottom dollar that the short metals paper traders are in doing some dirty work again…  The price of Oil has bumped higher to a $62 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury bond, is trading with a 4.43% yield this morning…  

Last week wil go down in history folks… It was the week of fear in the markets, and that played out in all assets, with some being rewarded for being fear antidotes, and some getting trashed because they exhibit fear…  Let’s hope we don’t see anu more of those kinds of weeks going forward, as I prefer a nice slow and steady downward movement for the dollar, and a nice slow & Steady rise for Gold & Silver. 

I read this morning that Lola, aka Goldman Sachs, is now calling for the Gold price to reach $4,000… Here’s the skinny from Bloomberg.com: ” Goldman analysts including Lina Thomas now see gold rallying to $3,700 an ounce by the end of this year — with prices set to hit $4,000 an ounce by mid-2026 “

Chuck again… And we all know that whatever Lola wants… Lola gets… Right?  I’m just saying… 

I ran across a ton of articles this past weekend that are FWIW worthy, so I’m loaded for bear this week, folks, youi won’t want to have missed any of the FWIW articles this week… So, stay tuned, same bat time, same bat channel… 

I’ve been doing some research and reading about the tariffs, and came across something that’s piqued my interest…  Did you know what at one time in our great country’s history that there was no income tax?  No IRS?  How did we, as a country, pay for imports?  Tariffs…   We were a net credit nation.. . Our trade balance was a credit for decades… So, were we ripping off the countries that are now ripping us off?  Of course we were… We were the mighty Empire, that ruled the world… But, there was no need for the gov’t to steal, I mean implement income tax at that time…  But they did… Because there was a ruling against tariffs, and the Gov’t needed to find another source of income, so they decided to steal it, I mean implement income tax! 

They could have just as easily reduced their spending,  and relied on the Trade Balance to remain a credit, But even in 1913, when the income tax was made permanent, Congress didn’t think they were overspending… So, nothing’s changed in that regard! 

So, that got me thinking… What if the tariffs are a way to eliminate income taxes? Wouldn’t that be a hoot? Now, I haven’t heard anything from the White House as to what we are going to do with the income from the tariffs…  But, this whole history thing got me thinking, and that’s a dangerous thing… What do you think about this thought?  A new Sovereign Wealth Fund has been mentioned to be started here in the U.S.  you know like the one they have In Norway, where their Oil revenues go, and every Norwegian, born and not born has a large sum of krone to their credit…  It would take a long time for the U.S. Sov. Wealth Fund to be of consequence, but the fact that we’re starting one, is step in the right direction… Now, if we could do something about the deficit spending!  Did you hear that the Defense Industry has asked for a $1 Trillion Budget?   Shame, Shame, Shame, in my best Gomer Pyle voice…   

I got a lot of my information from here: HISTORY

I know, I’ve been accused of being a conspiracy person… And I admit I do fall in that circle. I know that I’ve been accused of seeing things that don’t come true… And to that, I’ll balk…  I believe that most things that I’ve brought to you dear readers are things that eventually come true…  They may take longer than I thought they would, but they do come true…   I mean look at recent history, I wrote a heartfelt Pfennig in May 2020, about how I believed there would be defaults around the world, and here too, and that it would be the impetus for introducing digital currency… To replace folding currency…  We’re now into 5 years since I wrote about that, but… It’s getting closer, closer, closer to being implemented, and may not require a default, to implement the digital currency, but if it didn’t, we steered ever so close to a default… I’m just saying…. 

Gold had a bang up Thursday performance on Thursday,  and in his Friday letter: www.edsteergoldsilver.com Ed Steer had this to say about the goings on in Gold & Silver that day: :”Gold closed at a new nominal high price on Thursday, but would have closed far higher than was allowed if the collusive commercial traders hadn’t appeared at 11:30 a.m. in New York. Silver was kept on the tightest leash that I’ve seen in a while — and the reason that the gold/silver ratio blew out to over 100 to 1 again on Thursday. Silver certainly has a lot of catching up to do…when it’s allowed.

But it was more than obvious from the big blow-outs in total open interest in both gold and silver noted in the Preliminary Report further up, that ‘da boyz’ threw a lot of paper at both these precious metals to prevent their respective prices from rising even more than they did.”

Chuck again… Boy! Imagine, if you will, a time in space where there are no short paper traders… Now, what a wonderful world this would be…   But right now, they do exist and make things a tough row to hoe for Gold & Silver….   Hey! I read this weekend that the Silver Interest numbers are rising… 

You know what else has been rising that I don’t talk about much, and for good reason, since for the last few years, it’s been stuck in the mud?  The VIX… The volatility Index…   The VIX reached 55 the other day, and has dropped back down to 32, but still more double what it traded at 6 months ago… 15…   and I think that you can see the VIX playing out in Treasuries, right now, folks…  Houston? We have a problem…. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week had the weekly initial jobless claims, which were bang on the same figure they were the previous week, 223,000…   And then the STUPID CPI printed for March, and I immediately thought “The BLS has been cooking the books again, with their hedonic adjustments!”  The STUPID CPI showed that on an annual basis the consumer inflation index dropped to 2.8%, from 3% in Feb… Wait, what? Can you imagine the BLS propeller heads, standing over a boil cauldron like a witch, and throwing in hedonic adjustments to the boiling portion? I can… But then I see things that normal people don’t even attempt to view…  

But did that help the dollar any that day? Nope! Nada, zero, zilch, nil, a big Fat Goose Egg! 

And this piece of data that flies under the radar, won’t either… Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 5.0% last month to 6.7% this month, the highest reading since 1981 and marking four consecutive months of unusually large increases of 0.5 percentage points or more.  This is a look ahead and doesn’t necessarily mean that inflation will be that high in the future, but you can bet your bottom dollar, that it will be darn near close to those figures!   I’m just saying… 

To recap… The dollar got sold and that’s an understatement! The dollar got blasted late last week, losing 18 index points in the BBDXY on Thursday and following that up on Friday with another loss of      index points in the BBDXY.  The rout in the dollar is on… Could this be the beginning of the new “weak dollar trend”?  I guess, we’ll see soon.. So far, the PPT hasn’t entered the currency market, and I think they know in their heart of hears that it would be a BIG mistake to do so….  The POYUS took some of the pressure off the VIX by announcing that all tariffs are delayed 90 days, except for China’s…    And there’s a liquidity crisis in Treasuries, as China sells their Treasury holdings to buy physical Gold… 

For What It’s Worth… OK, this is a very long article, that I’ve cut out a piece from… It’s Mathew Piepenberg from Gold Switzerland, writing about how we’ve been blaming the tariffs for the stock market’s demise, and Gold’s rise… And we are wrong…  it can be found here: Tariff Needle + Debt Balloon = Era-Ending Liquidity Crisis

Or, here’s your snippet: “n fact, for anyone seeking clarity on the trends now impacting risk assets, tariff consequences, currency direction, recessionary forces, precious metal moves and the broader nature of the global new dis-order now and to come, one only needs fluency in a four-letter word, namely: DEBT.

Debt (and the unprecedented size, danger and direction of it), is a theme we’ve addressed with consistent warnings in nearly every article or interview we offer.

But let’s keep it simple.

From Debt Crisis to Market Crisis

A debt crisis = a credit crisis, and a credit crisis = a liquidity crisis, and a liquidity crisis is the cause of EVERY market implosion from time immemorial.

Period.

The math, history and direction of the current credit and liquidity crisis were, therefore, plain to see well before the headlines came up with the tariff trigger.

For years, we’ve been warning about the open and obvious signs that Uncle Sam was broke and that a credit crisis was not just coming but percolating all around us.

Many chose to ignore the signs, but here’s a quick reminder…

Ignored Neon-Flashing Signs

There was the repo crisis of 2019, in which even the big banks didn’t trust each other’s collateral, and the Fed had to re-liquify them, yet again, with billions of mouse-clicked money.

A year later, there was the so-called COVID crisis of March 2020, which was really just, well … another credit/liquidity crisis, followed by, you guessed it–unlimited (i.e., trillions) of mouse-click money.

By 2022, thanks to Powell’s higher-for-longer (and failed) rate-hike war on inflation, US markets saw the worst nominal returns in stocks and bonds since 1871.

Why?

Because rising rates at the Fed had created yet another credit (and hence) liquidity crisis…

By 2023, we then saw three of the four largest US bank failures in our history, which was, again, not really a banking crisis but a crisis in their underlying collateral – namely US sovereign bonds.

In short, yet another CREDIT crisis, which, again, required trillions of backdoor liquidity (i.e., currency-debasing, mouse-clicked money) to “solve.”

See a trend above? See a rising debt, credit and hence liquidity crisis – i.e. a ballon in search of a needle?

Adding Insult to Liquidity Injury

By connecting such a sequence of dots, it becomes easier to understand how a nation with a 125% debt/GDP ratio and $37T bar tab becomes less trusted with less buyers of its IOUs.”

Chuck again… Yes, it’s a very long article folks, but so was the snippet, so you could get the idea of what Matthew is talking about here…Matthew is a genius in my opinion, and he sees the markets all together differently than others, and that’s what I admire about him!

Market Prices 4/14/2025: American Style: A$ .6306, kiwi .5858, C$. 7207, euro 1.1380, sterling 1.3162, Swiss $1.2074, European Style: rand 18.8817, krone 10.5816, SEK 9.6668, forint 360.65, zloty 3.7816, koruna 22.0743, RUB 82.59, yen 145.46, sing 1.3184, HKD 7.7504, INR 86.04, China 7.3125, peso 20.13, BRL 5.8458, BBDX 1,232, Dollar Index 99.67, Oil $62.26. 10-year 4.43%, Silver $32.16, Platinum $981.00, Palladium $946.00, Copper $4.58, and Gold.. .$3, 207.19

That’s it for today… I was shocked when I went to my appt. With my oncologist last Thursday… They made me step on the scale, which they always do, and I noticed that I had lost 14 lbs. from the last time I stepped on that scale… I guess, my 11-day stay in the hospital was the fulcrum of my weight loss, because since I’ve been home, and on steroids again, weaning down them now, I’m hungry all the time, and eating anything that isn’t moving!  I’m now down to the weight I weighed when I graduated Hish School… Which was still 30 lbs. over what I weighed when I wrestled…. So, my days of being so obsese that it made me sick, are over…    Thank Goodness for that! None of my clothes fit me… I guess I’ll have to get online and buy some new clothes!  In case you are wondering just how much weight I’ve lost…  Well, it’s around 160 lbs…  Since I made that decision that I was too heavy in Oct. 2020… It took me over 4 years to lose it, but I’m sure it took me much longer to gain it, so that’s my story and I’m sticking to it!  The Electric Light Orchestra (ELO) takes us to the finish line today, with their song: Telephone Line…  I always liked the music that ELO made… Just saying… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar gets ambushed overnight…
• China to devalue?

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! A friendly spiderman neighborhood reminder that there will be no Pfennig tomorrow, as I’ll be getting poked at the oncologist’s office… With that out of the way, the sleep fairies didn’t leave me alone again yesterday; after hitting send on the Pfennig, I walked over to my recliner, sat down, and fell asleep for 4 hours! And that was after I had eaten my breakfast, taken my medicine, which is no light undertaking, and drank two cups of coffee!  What gives? Oh well, maybe today will be better! The great Al Stewart greets me this morning with his song: On The Border… 

I had a mini panic attack yesterday, when I woke up from the siesta that I took in the morning, I thought, you dumbass, you forgot to send out the Pfennig! And not seeing one in my email box, I was sure I had forgotten to send it out… But after a quick check of other areas, I found that I had indeed sent it… What a dolt!  

I guess my mind is still wandering…  With all the medicines I take, it’s no wonder, eh?   This one takes care of that, but then this one takes care of side effects of that one!   Geez Louise, I fell like a pharmacy here!  Oh, well, que sera, sera, it is what it is… And now, we’ll move on to the markets…

The dollar bounced around a bit yesterday, but in the end, it had gained 6 index points on the day in the BBDXY, to close at 1,169… Almost back to the 1,271 it held last Wednesday…   The euro, however, rallied, and that is something when you take that it’s the offset currency to the dollar… The euro rallied to over the 1.10 figure yesterday…   And the rest of the currencies followed along, so it was confusing to me, and probably you, as to how the BBDXY gained points, but the actual currencies also gained….  But, then I remembered, the euro is also considered to be a “safe haven currency” along with the Swiss franc… And for that matter some investors believe that the Japanese yen is also a “safe haven currency”, which explains why the yen has been rallying VS the dollar for the last couple of weeks… 

The POTUS held strong on his tariffs yesterday, and plans to implement them immediately, which has seen the Global markets lose $10 Trillion in value since he announced the tariffs last week.  Gold & Silver were up in the early trading yesterday, but then the short paper traders took hold of the metals once again, and the two metals saw their early gains wiped out… Gold finished the day at $2,985, and Silver must have done something to get their deal with the devil reversed, and it closed the day at $29.89…  So, all of you interested in buying Gold or Silver, or both, these two metals are still flashing that Blue Light Special priced drop, so you had better act fast, in my humble opinion… 

I say that because in the past, just about every time the metals see these engineered takedowns, when the dust clears, and the Good Witch, Glinda, tells us that it’s all clear and we can come out now, the metals go on to rally to level that are higher than they were before the takedown started… I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil remained in the $61 handle yesterday…  And the 10-year saw more selling from the Hedge Fund guys, and the yield rose to 4.29%…  As I told you yesterday, the Hedge Fund guys don’t want the risk that the longer bonds have right now… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar got ambushed again! The BBDXY is down 9 index points this morning… It’s the “witching hour”… Midnight has struck, and the tariffs begin today… So, instead of keeping the dollar down while we waited for “the day”, the dollar bugs ran the dollar higher, only to have to turn around and sell like funnel cakes at a State Fair!  There were some thoughts going through the markets that the POTUS was rethinking the tariffs, but in the end, they’re going through, and the markets don’t like it!  

Gold is soaring this morning and is back on the rally tracks after being subjected to selling earlier this week… Silver has joined Gold on the rally tracks this morning Safety and no risk is the call of the day, and Gold & Silver fit that bill perfectly!  The 10-year Treasury’s yield has spiked higher on the fear of risk… The 10-year’s yield trades this morning at 4.45%… Holy Cow! As the great Harry Cary used to call out during an incredible play in baseball…   

The price of oil has gotten smashed, and trades this morning with a $56 handle…  You’ll have to wait a day or two for the gas prices to reflect the drop in the price of Oil, but when they do drop, back up all the gas vehicles you own and filler up! And then take a long drive out to the country, and smell the air, take in the blossoms, and get out and walk around… You’ll thank me for suggesting you did that… 

Well, last night, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) reduced their OCR (Official Cash Rate) 25 Basis Points (1/4%) and told the markets that their internal inflation rate was very near meeting the level…  But, I’ll warn the RBNZ the last time they cut their interest rates, that they are not taking inflation seriously, and realizing that it will come back and when it does, they’ll have egg all over the collective faces…    Inflation is sticky… Period! 

I mentioned above that the Global Markets have lost $10 Trillion in value since the tariffs were announced last week. That’s a significant number folks! And still no word on any country working out a trade deal where both sides win, so I guess this is a case of the tariffs are what they are, and there’s no getting around them… UGH! I truly thought that most of the announced tariffs would be eliminated by new trade Agreements with the countries destined to have tariffs attached to their exports to the U.S.   

Although, there was some news regarding all of this yesterday, with the POTUS signaling he could be open to negotiations. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that perhaps almost 70 countries have already approached the US. So, there’s still hope, right? That I will be right about new Trade Agreements?   C’mon boys, get it done! 

Speaking of tariffs, Bill Bonner had this to say about them yesterday in his daily letter: “Tariffs are a political move…part demagoguery, part cupidity. They make politicians more powerful as they get to choose who pays what to whom. And they make a few insiders richer as they favor some industries over others. But ultimately, they weaken the economy and make everyone else poorer.”

Way to set the record straight on tariffs, Bill!, I’ve tried to do that, but failed miserably, and really only got around to saying what the tariffs will do to the middle class… 

And then there was this news from China, as reported by Bloomberg.com “The deepening trade war is raising speculation in financial markets that China may resort to aggressively devaluing the yuan against the dollar in a break of their policy of pursuing a stable currency.

Strategists from New York to Hong Kong are game-planning if Beijing’s Friday warning of a “resolute” response to President Donald Trump’s tariffs could include allowing the yuan to weaken sharply, a controversial and non-consensus move which would in theory make Chinese exports cheaper but risk capital flight. President Xi Jinping’s administration already announced a 34% tariff on all imports from the US starting April 10.”

Chuck again… Now wouldn’t that be bee in the President’s bonnet. And if China does devalue the renminbi to offset the tariffs costs, wouldn’t that give the idea to much of the other countries to do it too?   I would certainly think so!

The U.S. Data Cupboard today, just has the meeting minutes from the last FOMC meeting in March…  The markets always go through these minutes with a fine-toothed comb, looking for differences between what was recorded and what was said at the press conference that was held after the last meeting… I don’t know why they go through this exercise, because I don’t recall a time when there was a difference! 

Tomorrow’s Data Cupboard will have the STIPID CPI for March… The experts have forecast that the annual STUPID CPI will be 3.0%… With no change in the monthly number of 2.8%… I’ll be sure to check with John Williams at www.shadowstats.com for the real inflation rate and report on that next Monday…

To recap… The dollar has just about recovered all the lost ground it saw wash under the bridge last week after the tariffs were announced…  Bill Bonner gives us his take on tariffs, and Chuck talks about inflation being sticky, and how the RBNZ made a mistake cutting their OCR… Will China devalue their currency to offset the tariffs?  And Gold & Silver lose their early morning gains yesterday, after the short paper traders got to their desks… 

With the price of Oil falling badly, the Petrol Currencies are getting whacked…  The spread between the Norwegian krone and the Swedish krona, has really widened, because of Norway’s association with the price of Oil… The Mexican peso has moved north of the 20 figure it had held for months, and the Brazilian real has lost ground…  Pound sterling doesn’t look like it’s any worse for the wear, but give it time, the rot on the vine of the price of Oil is coming to get the Petrol Currencies… 

And a quick look at the currency roundup and I see where the Chinese renminbi already looks like it is getting devalued, as its price drops VS the dollar on a daily basis, these days…  But if the Chinese are going to devalue the currency, then it will be a one time drop of large number…  We had better keep an eye on that happening, sometime soon… 

For What It’s Worth… Ther are a ton of articles this morning regarding the Tariffs… But I thought I would go in a different direction, and talk about the flight from risk assets, and that can be found here: Safe-haven demand drives solid price gains in gold amid U.S. Treasury worries | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “(Kitco News) – Gold and silver prices are posting good gains in early U.S. trading Wednesday. Safe-haven demand has resurfaced amid worries about the stability of the U.S. Treasury market, amid a U.S.-China trade war that is unfolding. June gold was last up $79.20 at $3,069.40. May silver prices were last up $0.569 at $30.255.

Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to sharply lower openings today in New York. The stock indexes sold off on the morning news that China announced 84% retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. A full-blown trade war between the U.S. and China is under way, with neither side willing to blink.

Importantly, there are increasing marketplace concerns about the U.S. Treasury market and its stability. There is talk in the marketplace that big hedge funds are having to unwind huge interest rate swap positions that included being heavily long U.S. Treasuries, due in part to notions the Trump administration would loosen U.S. bank regulations regarding Treasury holdings, which has not occurred.

Gold prices are sharply higher today on safe-haven demand, due in part to the U.S. Treasury market worries.”

Chuck again… Well, who told you first that the hedge fund guys were unwinding their Treasury positions?  Could it have been me?  Well, I’m taking credit for unleashing that news a few days ago… 

Market Prices 4/9/2025: American Style: A$ 6027, kiwi .5679, C$ .7068, euro 1.1088, sterling 1.2819, Swiss $1.1950, European Style: rand 19.5127, krone 10.9876, SEK 10.0021, forint 366.59, zloty 3.6059, koruna 22.7234, RUB 86.16, yen 144.05, sing 1.3467, HKD 7.7536, INR 85.69. China 7.3484, peso 21.04, BRL 6.0898, BBDXY 1,260, Dollar Index 102.01, Oil $56.46, 10-year 4.45%, Silver $30.19, Platinum $918.00, Palladium $904.00, Copper $4.14, and Gold… $3.047.05

That’s it for today.. And this week… I’m going to be having a slew of Dr. Appts are coming this month and next, all because of my stint in the Jupiter Medical Center earlier this month.  I even have a new doctor that is now on my list of care givers…  A pulmonary doctor…  HEY! Progress! I climbed the stairs yesterday, without having to stop and rest! My breathing was not as bad, and my heart rate was not as bad, so that’s progress!  I don’t think I could climb them more than once, but I did do it once, and that made me happy!  Cardinals got some pitching last night, and defeated one of the best new starting pitchers in the league last night… YAHOO! Day game today, so you know where I’ll be! Well, Season 3 of Reacher has been shown on Prime, and I’m hooked on the show! Now I can’t wait for Season 4!  I’ve read 99% of the Jack Reacher Books, and these series on Prime, take one of the books and does it in film…  Pretty cool…  The Cure takes us to the finish line today with their song: Just Like Heaven… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and a grand rest of the week! And don’t forget to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• dollar rallies and closes the gap on its losses last week
• Gold is in a liquidity crisis….

Good Day.. And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! What the heck has happened to my beloved Cardinals’ pitching? It has surrendered multiple runs in recent games, and they don’t look as if they have a clue as to how to retire batters! Serentiy Now! Yesterday, for the most part is a blur to me, as I was tired and slept most of the day and evening… As you know, I’m a firm believer of the idea that your body tells you how much sleep you need… So, there’s that!  The Climax Blues Band greets me this morning with their song: Couldn’t Get It Right… 

Well, after getting taken to the woodshed on Thursday and Friday last week, the dollar came back strongly on Sunday night, and into Monday morning, but it stopped there on Monday morning… The BBDXY gained 2 index points from the overnight gain Sunday night, and as I said yesterday, it appeared that a correction in the dollar was taking place, and I stand by that idea… 

Because, otherwise, in my humble country boy opinion, the dollar would had have a field day on Monday, but it didn’t… And through my years of experience watching the dollar, I think that the dollar didn’t have any follow through, because, the dollar bugs thought that gain Sunday night, was enough, the dollar didn’t deserve to go any higher… 

And so we begin today, with many questions about where the dollar is going to go today, and what driver will it use to get there.  The euro, the offset currency to the dollar, is reacting to the dollar swings in normal fashion, with it rising and falling with each move the dollar makes.  And the rest of the currencies follow the Big Dog, (euro) around town… 

Gold was subjected to more shot paper trading yesterday, and at one point in the day’s trading, Gold was down $67… Ouch! Now that’s going to leave a mark! But the shiny metal fought and fought to end the day down $53… And close at $2,983… That’s an ugly closing price, eh?  Well, do something about it! Buy some physical Gold and get it going in the right direction! My dad used to tell me that when the chips are down, and it appears that all is lost, to put my head down and get to work…  

And that advice carried me through my working years for sure, and I do believe that’s what it will take to get Gold moving in the right direction again… Bargain basement pricing for sure, but that’s what you’ve been waiting for, isn’t it? 

Here’s Brien Lundin’s take on the day’s Gold Trading: “You already know that it was one of the wildest trading sessions ever seen. There have been bigger drops, and bigger rebounds. But perhaps never such a drop,

Rebound, drop, rebound and drop again.” Brian is the head of the New Orleans Investment Conference, which is the grandaddy of all Conferences…  And he has a day job as the head of the Jefferson Financial Co, in New Orleans…  he puts out a weekly letter on Gold, and if you’re a Gold bug, and can’t get enough news on Gold, then you should check his letter out here: 4.7.25-Alert.pdf

Silver has done a deal with the devil… Or so it seems…  A takeoff of Damn Yankees…   Silver, which was subjected to major short selling last week, has changed directions and is back in the good graces of the short Silver paper traders, or so it seems.. Silver gained 65-cents yesterday, and regained the $30 handle, after briefly falling below the $30 handle…   Silver closed yesterday at $30.18… 

The price of Oil wrapped a tourniquet around its price and stopped the bleeding for now, yesterday. Oil found a bid, and gained a buck on the day, to end the day trading with a $61 handle.  And the 10-year Treasury has been bouncing around like a super ball…  The yield on the 10-year gained some its lost ground yesterday rising to 4.16% on the day…  There wasn’t any data to speak of, well I take that back, there was the Consumer Credit (read debt) for February… But, that wouldn’t have moved the bond boys to sell Treasuries… So, I wonder just what’s on their collective minds right now… 

Well, here it is, what’s on the bond boys’ minds… From the AP this morning…  “hedge funds sell bonds to reduce risk”…  This goes back to the statement that Bill Bonner made last week, when he called buying Treasuries “the dumbest idea”…  I’ve gone record here by saying that as long as you stay 3-years and in, on the yield curve, that a Treasury bond is OK… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar got bought some more, and we start our day today with the BBDXY up 3 index points to 1,267… This is interesting to me that is, that the dollar has fought back to regain most of the lost ground it experienced late last week… I shouldn’t have highlighted the Swiss franc yesterday, because it lost the $1.17 handle overnight… I’m famous for jinxing currencies… Highlight them and they fade the next day…  I guess I should stop highlighting them! Gold is rallying in the early trading this morning, and is up $34, while Silver is still dealing with the devil, and is up 24-cents to start the day today…   Gold is caught in a liquidity crisis, folks, and will see these spurts higher, followed by selloffs… Keep in your lane here and don’t panic when you see Gold off by multiples of 10, remember what the turtle said to the hare… Slow and steady, wins the race… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $61 handle overnight, and the selling that the Hedge Fund guys are doing with the 10-year Treasury has its yield trading at 4.16% This morning… 

What do you suppose the answer to the question: “Will the tariffs make or break the U.S. economy”…  The U.S. economy is on tenterhooks right now, and wouldn’t need much of a push to propel it over the cliff… In my humble country boy opinion that is… I could be wrong, but I doubt it… In fact, my family members like to make a big deal out of the times in the past that I’ve admitted to being wrong about something… So, not wanting to harm my arm by sapping myself on the back, but it’s a rate occurrence to come to the realization that I was wrong about something! 

I truly believe that history might not fully repeat itself, but it will close, lie a grenade has to be… And that is that the tariffs, if allowed to be implemented as announced, will do more harm than good to the economy, and the middle class’s financial situation…  Hey! The Rich Folks, won’t feel it, it’ll be like a rounding error for them, but you and me, and the guy down the street that cuts his grass with his shirt off, we’ll feel the rise in prices more than anyone else… And we’ll feel the businesses closing and the overall feeling of being in Liverpool in 1963…   Remember those pictures that the TV would show of Liverpool back when the Beatles hit the U.S. shores?   Now, those were depressing, but at the time we didn’t put two and two together, and thought it looked like most U.S. cities here in the U.S., but that wasn’t the case, now, was it? 

Funny, not funny ha-ha, that I’m always referring back to those days? Those are the days of my youth, and I can recall the events of those days easily, but I can’t remember names and faces…   Those escape me, but I remember the folks that I was closest to, and that’s all that matters to me!  

OK…  the dollar is down -5.21% so far this year… And I reckon back to what I talked about yesterday, and that is that the dollar used to be a “safe haven” for crises that arise in the world… But it didn’t last week, it ran and hid from investors… The drop in the dollar on Thursday & Friday last week was the dollar’s biggest drop to start a year since 2008… Do you know what was going on then to cause a major drop in the dollar?  November 2022 after President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on imports at levels not seen since the early 1900s. Stock markets also tanked, as tariffs ignited recession worries. Well, Increasing recession risks had put interest rate cuts back on the table in 2008; interest rates are one of the primary drivers of the U.S. dollar’s value.  

So, you see, history does run circles around repeating, eh?  

2008, sure seems like a galaxy far away, doesn’t it? 17 years ago… Watching a tot grow up to be a young adult… Like watching my darling granddaughter, Delaney Grace, grow up and drive, and do the things young adults do… She is so darling, and I love her to pieces, and tell her that every time I see her!  Sorry, but I couldn’t pass up telling you how much I love my daring Delaney Grace!  her choir group recently traveled to NYC to sing a Carnagie Hall!  Delaney’s mom, my daughter, Dawn, sent me a short clip of the performance..  I told her that it must have been a thrill to sing at Carnagie Hall… Such a historic place! 

Not too much else to talk about this morning with regards to the markets, currencies, metals, economies and dolts… So, let’s move on to the Big Finish!

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday, had the Consumer Credit (read debt) for February, and believe it or don’t, Consumers paid down their debt in February, or so it seems per the Gov’t bean counters…  Here’s some data for you to ingest, “Revolving credit, largely a reflection of credit card debt, edged up at an annual rate of 0.1% to $1.324 trillion. Non-revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of -0.3% to $3.673 trillion.

The Federal government holdings of student loans continue to be the largest portion of non-revolving credit, comprising 41.7% percent of non-revolving credit. Depository institutions and Finance companies are secondary and tertiary holders of non-revolving credit, with 22.6% and 19.5%, respectively of non-revolving credit.”

I couldn’t get my arms around this drop in consumer debt, here folks, and so I’ll mark this as “Gov’t book cooking”…  

Today’s Data Cupboard is null and void of any real economic data, but we do have 2 Fed Heads out on the speaking circuit… 

To recap… The dollar’s rebound stopped yesterday morning…  At least it did rebound and regain some of its lost ground from late last week… But Chuck put it down as a correction of the all the selling… The U.S. dollar is down -5.21% so far this year, and Chuck points to what was going on in 2008, to tell the tale of what’s causing the dollar to lose ground in 2025… The euro continues to follow the dollar up and down and the rest of the currencies follow the Big Dog (euro) around… Gold had an unbelievable day yesterday, dropping like a rock and then soaring and then dropping more, and finally closing out down $53 on the day… Silver seems to have made a deal with the devil… According to Chuck… 

For What It’s Worth… I made a call yesterday to include a headline I saw and now it seems that the call was somewhat exaggerated… I’m talking about all the deceased people receiving Social Security money through the years… Here’s the skinny on that and it can be found here: Tens of millions of dead people aren’t getting Social Security checks, despite Trump and Musk claims | AP News

Or, here’s your snippet: “Over the past few days, President Donald Trump and billionaire adviser Elon Musk have said on social media and in press briefings that people who are 100, 200 and even 300 years old are improperly getting benefits — a “HUGE problem,” Musk wrote, as his Department of Government Efficiency digs into federal agencies to root out waste, fraud and abuse.

It is true that improper payments have been made, including some to dead people. But the numbers thrown out by Musk and the White House are overstated and misrepresent Social Security data.

On Wednesday, Social Security’s new acting commissioner, Lee Dudek, acknowledged recent reporting about the number of people older than age 100 who may be receiving benefits from Social Security. “The reported data are people in our records with a Social Security number who do not have a date of death associated with their record. These individuals are not necessarily receiving benefits.”

Chuck again… Still, where there’s smoke there’s fire, right?  I’m just saying that if there are deceased people receiving money each month that it would go a long way to fixing a problem if that were eliminated!

Market Prices 4/8/2025: American Style: A$ .6044, kiwi .5691, C$ .7053, euro 1.0940, sterling 1.2782, Swiss $1.1691, European Style: rand 19.4661, krone 10.9337, SEK 10.0809, forint 372.22, zloty 3.9052, koruna 22.9802, RUB 85.58, yen 146.94, sing 1.3498, HKD 7.7694, INR 86.26, China 7.2732, peso 20.53, BRL 5.9145, BBDXY 1,267, Dollar Index 103.00, Oil $61.99, 10-year 4.16%, Silver $30.41, Platinum $951.00, Palladium $922.00, Copper $4.51, and Gold… $3,017.22

That’s it for today… Congrats to The University of Florida for their win in the NCAA Basketball Championship for 2025… They won the game by 2 pts, VS Houston, and it was a barn burner of a game for sure… I kept switching back and forth between the basketball game and the Cardinals game, which they lost…  And then went to sleep! I just couldn’t get the sleep fairies from visiting me yesterday! Maybe I’ve tried to do too much in regard to getting up and around…  Maybe…  I just think that the trip back to St. Louis, was a lot for me, and it finally caught up with me… Today should be better… Now that I’ve caught up on my sleep!  I’ve still not tried to climb the steps upstairs, but I’ll have to Thursday, as there will be no Pfennig Thursday as I have an appointment with my oncologist bright and early on Thursday morning…  This should be an interesting appt. The doctors at the hospital in Jupiter put me on steroids, which will eventually run out, but that has increased my appetite and weight gain… Oh well, que sera, sera… Our Blues, hockey team finally saw their winning streak end at 12 last night in Winnipeg…  Dave Mason takes us to the finish line today with his song: We Just Disagree….   I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar had a bad week…
• Swiss francs being the cat’s meow….

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you. Well, my trip back to my little river town home was not without problems… We, normally do not check our bags, and now carrying a portable oxygen generator made our carrying on bags more difficult… But, in the end, we managed… Well, to be precise, my wife, Kathy managed most of it, looking much like a packed down sherpa…  While I dealt with the portable oxygen generator…  I was unaware that elevation played hell with your oxygen levels, and kept worrying about my oxygen level dropping, but in the end it all was fine, and our trip was made easier!   Alex picked us up at the airport and drove us home… Thanks Bud! Three Dog Night greets me this morning with their song: Eli’s Coming… 

Well, if he’s coming to save us, he’s a dollar short and a day late, because the list of tariffs that were announced by the POTUS last Wednesday, is here to destroy us… That is, IF they actually get implemented, or if they are just a negotiating tool for better trade agreements… Already it has been reported that a list of countries on the Tariffs list have contacted the White House to talk about better trade agreements…  In my heart of heart, I’m hoping this happens for all involved… I realize that China will be a tough nut to crack, but if the Chinese see that the majority of countries are interested in new trade agreements with the U.S., then maybe, just maybe, ’cause you never know (Andujar), the Chinese will come around to seeing things done the better way, and not through inflation causing tariffs… 

OK, well, the dollar got smoked again last Thursday and Friday…. And ended the week with the BBDXY trading at: 1,251, meaning that it had lost 20 index points from Monday last week… The loss of the dollar just on Friday, last week was 10 index points in the BBDXY…  So, the euro, the offset currency, to the dollar, is trading within spittin’ distance of 1.10 again, and the rest of the currencies are following the euro higher… Economists, even the two handed kind, have been issuing warnings about a “dumb thing to do” implementing these tariffs, and the stock Jockeys have really taken this “dumb thing to do” and gone on to sell stocks…  The rot on the stock markets vine is really getting exposed right now, but that’s not what we’re here to talk about is it? 

But when stocks get sold, bonds get bought, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond had fallen below 4%… A friendly neighborhood reminder that when bonds get bought, their price rises, and the yield drops… And vice versa when bonds get sold…   The yield on the 10-year Treasury ended the week trading with a 3.91%… WOW! 

And the price of Oil got sold off BIG TIME, late last week… The Oil traders see the tariffs as not only causing inflation, but also slowing the economy down, thus reducing disposable income and gas buying… And with that in their collective minds, they took down the price of Oil to end the week at $62…   That’s a full $10 in price from where the price of Oil was a week ago…   I can’t help it, but I think this selloff in Oil was a bit overdone, and when inflation comes along adding to our already higher prices for just about everything, the price of Oil, being a commodity, will most likely rally…   

And there was news overnight that the Saudi’s had cut Oil prices to Southeast Asia… So, that surely isn’t helping the price of Oil… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar raced back! The buying of the dollar was interesting, as it looked more like a correction than anything else…  The BBDXY gained 12 index points overnight, and starts our day/ week trading at 1.266, quite an improvement from Friday’s close, eh?  And the rest of the currencies have given up the ground that they had gained last week… Except one currency that seems to be the cat’s meow this morning, and that is the Swiss franc… Safe haven buying of francs is the order of business this morning…  Funny, not funny ha-ha, but funny that this should be the case…  Buying a fiat currency as a safe haven instead of hard, physical Gold really has me wondering what the hell these traders are thinking!   The software that outlook uses just tried to re-write that last sentence in a “nicer way”, and of course I said, “no thank you!” 

Gold is up $3 to start our day/ week this morning, and Silver is up 76-cents, and that looks good to me!  Silver has been drug through an alley of broken glass, and then driven off in a dump truck in recent times, so to see Silver outperforming Gold for once in blue moon, make me smile…  And after watching my beloved Cardinals get swept by the Red Sox, I didn’t have much to smile about yesterday… 

The price of Oil slipped another buck overnight to start the week trading with a $60 handle… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield slipped back below 4% overnight, to start the week at 3.98%… Stocks getting sold, bonds getting bought, it’s the same throughout history, folks… 

With stocks getting sold, some panic selling, and so on, selling in margin accounts, or a more dreadful thing, margin calls for stock values falling below the min. Equity in the margin accounts… To pay for these margin calls, the most liquid asset these people have is Gold… So, Gold gets sold to get cash to pay for the margin calls in stock accounts… I believe that I have told you this before, but long ago in a far-away Galaxy, I ran a margin Dept, and a local regional Brokerage House, that has now become quite BIG… And I saw many a good person come to tears when told they had to sell something in their account, to pay for a margin call… Well, I didn’t actually see them come to tears, I heard them on the phone…  The pleading the begging, the asking for more time, I’ve heard it all… But Fed Reserve rules are rules, and we had to follow them… 

I read a piece this weekend that talked about how if the stock crisis happened in Asia, then the selling of Gold would be much more pronounced, but here in the West, the effect is much less in the price of Gold, because, Westerners don’t even know that they can own physical Gold much less sell it to pay for margin calls…  

So, tell me then why did Gold lose $77 on Friday, following up its $19 loss on Thursday, to end the week at $3,036. Silver saw the short paper traders go to town on its price both Thursday and Friday last week… On Thursday, Silver lost $2.02, and on Friday it lost $$2.27, to end the week at $29.55… Now if that’s not what Ed Steer calls a “Bear Raid” in Silver I don’t know what is…. Silver has been the whipping post boy of the metals in the last couple of weeks, and do you want to know why?  Because it costs less of finance short positions in Silver than it does Gold…I’m not going to go all postal on the short paper traders here, instead, I’ll point out that Silver (and Gold) is bargain basement cheaper! Beep, Beep, Beep, what’s that sound? It’s the sound of the truck backing up to load up on Silver (and some Gold) at these blue light special prices in Silver… 

You know, when I think about the dollar getting sold last week, I wonder what happened to its “safe haven status”? I mean, that in the past, whenever there was a crisis going on with the stock jockeys, investors would flock to the dollar for protection… But not this time… And while I don’t like the saying, “This time is different”,  this time was different, and investors ran from the dollar… There are no ifs, ands or buts, here… Investors ran from the dollar! And I can’t blame them!   

The tariffs are going to do some ugly things to the U.S. economy, IF they are allowed to be implemented…   And that can’t be good for the dollar…  I’ve got something for you regarding Foreign Central Banks and their holdings of dollars as reserve in the FWIW section today… So, be sure to stay here for that!  

I just can’t get Smoot-Hawley off my mind here folks…  If Smoot-Hawley tariffs weren’t a main cause for the Great Depression, then they were at the scene of the crime…   My economics go to, Frank Trotter, who studied under the great Hy Minsky, and I had the unique opportunity to be with on several occasions many years ago… Would talk about the Minsky moment…  A Minsky Moment is simply, the onset of a market collapse brought on by speculative activity that defines an unsustainable bullish period. Minsky moments generally occur after a long period of growth, which ultimately leads to overleveraging once prices stop rising.

In other words, when everyone thinks that this stock rally and economic phenomenon will go on forever,  the Minsky Moment appears, and it all begins to circle the drain…   Trees don’t grow to the moon, folks… Remember that! 

Well, that’s just about all I have to say about the tariffs, and markets this morning, we might as well head to the Big Finish, eh? Except to mention that the DOGE folks, found that $1.3 Billion in checks were sent to deceased people here in the U.S. and the checks were cashed!  Wait, What?  Now, that this has been found, what are the steps that will be taken to prevent this from taking place again?  That’s the problem with the DOGE folks, so far folks… They find these frauds, wastes, and abuses, and then nothing is done to correct them…   I find this to be a real problem… But I’m not fool, I realize it will take an act of Congress to do something about them, and they will balk, because that’s not what got them elected! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard last week had the March Jobs Jamboree numbers for us… 228,000 were created in the month, and there was only a rounding error taken away in the Birth / Death model, which is part of the BLS’s hedonic adjustments… But the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.2% (from 4.1%) There was a ton of job creation in March, and one has to wonder what gives, with businesses closing and filing for Bankruptcy, growing by leaps and bounds, so there’s no hiring going on there… The Gov’t extras that DOGE has identified as non-essential, should be showing up in these Jobs Creation losses numbers… 

This Weeks’s Data Cupboard is pretty void of real economic data, until we get to Wednesday, when the FOMC’s Meeting Minutes will be printed for all to see what the Fed Heads really had to say about the economy and rate movements coming… 

To recap… The rot on the dollar’s vine is being exposed these days, as the dollar had lost 20 index points in the BBDXY in the last 10 days… Gold is getting sold to pay for margin calls, and Silver is being sold short by the short paper traders and creating excellent buying opportunities in Silver…  The currencies were gaining VS the dollar last week, with the dollar getting sold. The euro is the “leader of the pack” (the shangri-las) and the rest of the currencies were following the euro higher VS the dollar. Chuck talks a bit about the tariffs, and gives you his thoughts on all them… 

For What It’s Worth… I came across this article on Saturday, after returning home, and thought back to a time when the dollar’s share of reserve currencies around the world had shrunk to 63%, and thought then that the dollar was in trouble… Well, this article tells a story about how the dollar’s share of world reserves has fallen further and it can be found here: Dollar’s Reserve Status Losing Ground to Gold and Other Currencies

Or, here’s your snippet: “The U.S. dollar’s status as the global reserve currency continues to erode, with gold and “non-traditional” reserve currencies gaining ground.

According to recently released IMF data, the dollar’s share of global reserve currencies slid further last year. Total holdings of dollar-denominated securities by central banks (excluding the Federal Reserve) fell by $59 billion in 2024.

As of the end of last year, dollars made up 57.8 percent of global reserves. That is the lowest level since 1994, representing a 7.3 percent decline in the last decade. In 2002, dollars accounted for about 72 percent of total reserves.

This isn’t the first surge of de-dollarization. The greenback’s share of reserves plunged during the inflationary years of the 1970s but recovered during the 1990s as price inflation cooled and U.S. budget deficits narrowed thanks to the post-Cold War “peace dividend.”

Today, the dollar faces a triple whammy – sticky price inflation, out-of-control federal spending driving massive budget deficits, and global wariness of the West’s weaponization of the dollar.

De-dollarization has accelerated since the U.S. and other Western nations imposed heavy sanctions on Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine.

According to a report by the Atlantic Council, “In recent years, and especially since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Group of Seven (G7)’s subsequent escalation in the use of financial sanctions, some countries have been signaling their intention to diversify away from dollars.”

What Is Replacing the Dollar?

If central banks are spurning dollars, what are they holding?

Increasingly, they are bolstering their reserve with gold.

Central bank gold demand topped 1,000 Tonnes for the third straight year in 2024. To put that into perspective, central bank gold reserves increased by an average of just 473 Tonnes annually between 2010 and 2021.”

Chuck Again… Well, I’ve journaled here in the Pfennig previously, regarding how Central Banks were gobbling up the physical Gold…  And now here’s the proof in the pudding!

Market Prices 4/7/2025: American Style: A$ .6036, kiwi .5679, C$ .7015, euro 1.0946, sterling 1.2811, Swiss $1.1708, European Style: rand 19.5467, krone 10.8855, SEK 10.1012, forint 372.46, zloty 3.9234, koruna 23. 2054, RUB 86.34, yen 146.26, sing 1.3471, HKD 7.7682, INR 85.84, China 7.3090, peso 20.63, BRL 5.8424, BBDXY 1,266, Dollar Index 104.13, Oil $60.59, 10-year 3.98%, Silver $30.33, Platinum $910.00, Palladium $917.00, Copper $4.40, and Gold… $3,039.67

That’s it for today… Well, the final two teams in the NCAA basketball Championship Game tonight will be Florida, and Houston… I’m pulling for Florida… I guess, we’ll see… Neither of the two teams I picked in my final two made it to the game, with both losing on Saturday… My beloved Cardinals are proving me wrong… I said while in Spring Training that they couldn’t seem to find any timely hitting… But in the regular season so far, they’ve done well with their team hitting, so, no scout I could be! I do believe I’m getting better, I’m moving around much easier, and without my breathing and heart rate going as much haywire… I went downstairs as soon as I arrived home on Saturday, and can’t climb the steps to go back upstairs, so I’m living in the basement!  Hey! It’s better than living in a trailer down by the river (Farley) !   That’s just a funny saying from an old SNL skit, folks, I’m not making fun of anyone living in trailers! I ordered 3 new books to read, now that I’m not able to get out and move about the country, so I’ll be getting to them today… The Moody Blues take us to the finish line this morning with their great song: Nights In White Satin…  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and will please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler