Category: Uncategorized

*currencies and metals rally on Friday

• What on earth is a mother to do?

Good Day… And another Super Sunday! Don’t get used to this, because I’m not going down this rabbit hole… I’m writing to you today, because I told you that I would write next on Tuesday, but the doctor changed that schedule, and I’m due at the hospital for tests bright and early Tuesday… Paul McCartney and Wings greets me this morning with their song: Nineteen Eighty-Five

I used to be able to play that song on the piano, but like my guitar I left it behind once I was diagnosed with cancer… Being that there were bigger fish to fry… Or something along that line…  I know, no excuses, as the old Football coach used to bellow, Excuses never won a game for anyone! 

Ok, enough of that… Well, Friday brought me to thinking about some interesting thoughts that I’ll lay out for you here, which is the reason I’m writing today…  But first…

First off, the dollar fought back after getting sold for two days last week and looked like it would win the day…  the day gaining on Friday. The BBDXY finished the week at 1,201, after a slew of data brought the dollar’s brief rally back to earth, and the dollar ended Friday, flat…   

Gold went into the 3-day weekend gaining a bit on Friday. Gold was up $32 and closed at $ 3,448. Silver saw its time above $40 short-lived on Friday but did gain 71-cents and went into the weekend at $39.73.  Gold is eyeing $3,500 and Silver is eyeing $40, and I do believe that tomorrow while the U.S. markets are closed and there will be no SPT’s around to stop the foreign markets from taking both metals over their next plateaus…  I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see tomorrow, eh?

The price of Oil went into the weekend trading with a $64 handle… That’s a two-day mark for Oil, which has seen every attempt, prior, knocked down to the $63 handle… So, good for you Oil!

And the 10-year Treasury remained trading with a 4.23% yield into the weekend… 

There were no overnight markets on Friday night, so that’s where we stand until Tuesday… There will be foreign markets open on Monday, but I doubt they will move the meter much… 

OK, I’ve beaten around the bush much too long here… The first thing I was to talk about are house prices…  But first, let me take you back to 2002, when I wrote a white paper title The Decline of the Dollar… In it, I listed all the things stacking up against the dollar, which at the time had been in a long strong trend that had lasted 7-years… One of the things I listed was that I thought that Home Prices were in a bubble and would soon come crashing down… 

This was 2002… the housing bubble didn’t crash until 2007…  But the point I’m making here is that I saw it first, and chronicled it, right there in the white paper…  That’s to say that I think I have a finger on the pulse of Housing…  And I’m not even in that business! 

Ok, so the Case/Shiller Home Price Index has taken a fall…  I’ve chronicled here in past Pfennigs each time the index is up for a print that the previous month saw home prices slip, and this month should be the same… So, there’s been some slippage, but the June HP Index dropped 7 percentage points, and to me this is not slippage…  Home prices grew at the slowest pace in two years, reflecting, in my mind, extraordinarily weak demand… 

So, I’m climbing out on a big fat limb here and saying that Housing is due for a correction and this looks like it is it…  I’m certain that someone with far more gray matter than me, and being a wordsmith, would be able to explain this to you better than I, but what would you have to pay for those words?   

The second thought I want to share with you something that I’ve talked about for some time now, our debt, and how we finance the debt… We all know we finance the debt with the sales of Treasuries…  I came across this last Friday, in friend, Dave Gonigam’s 5-Bullets with comments by Stefan Gleason: “Trump can bulldoze his way through resistance within the U.S. — and he can strong-arm foreign allies into concessions, until they cease to be allies — but there is one great immovable power that is beyond his reach.

“He cannot force the global bond market to buy U.S. Treasuries and fund his debt.”

That means Treasury notes and bonds are a long-term loser”

Chuck again… and that means.. Who will be left to finance our debt? The only answer to that is we will… The Fed/ cabal/ Cartel will have to print Trillions of new dollars to be the buyer of last resort…  That means we are self-funding the spending of Congress and the POTUS, and if the last visit to the la-la-land of Fed printing dollars to buy Treasuries from failing banks, we all know what became of all those dollars, right?  Inflation… and if that inflation was enough to cause many to default, then this inflation will be the worst we’ve ever seen on our shores… 

Sticky inflation becomes runaway inflation… Can you deal with that?  I if you can then you have stockpiled Gold… I’m just saying… 

So, in the end the Mar-a-Lago Accord I talked to you about the other day, will take a back seat to these two thoughts… And with that I’ve said enough for a Sunday, no go to mass, or church, or temple, or whatever you do on a Sunday morning… And pray that these things never-ever happen…   

The U.S. Data Cupboard on Friday had the PCE for July, and the Core reading rose to 2.9% (that’s less food & energy)… The all-in PCE (personal consumption expenditures) stayed steady at 2.6%…  All, in all I think that this is not enough to stop the FOMC from cutting rates this month…  We also saw Person Income & Spending, which showed why consumer debt is rising and spending is rising…   Hmm… isn’t both of them rising good, I hear you ask?  Well… I guess, as long as spending and expenditures are the same, but in this case we spent more than we made, and that’s not good… 

And one of the small reasons that 2^nd QTR GDP was revised upward to 3.3%…  The thing that makes up a lot of the GDP calc is Gov’t spending, and we all know that Gov’t spending was through the roof in the 2^nd QTR… So, take this GDP print with a grain of salt… It’s backward looking for one, and two, it’s full of traps to get you believe the economy is peachy keen… The Stupid Consumer Sentiment for August fell to 58.2 from 61.7…  At least that’s moving in the right direction as consumer feels that the sticky inflation is really causing them problems… 

To recap…  The dollar got sold on Friday, Gold & Silver shot to the moon… and Chuck gives us his two thoughts that keep him from having a good night’s sleep! 

Market prices , on Friday,  8/29/2025: American Style: A$ .6540, kiwi $.5893, euro 1.1686, sterling 1.3504, Swiss $1.2472, European Style: rand 17.6566, krone 10.0587, SEK 9.3877, forint 339.41, zloty 3.6580, koruna 20.9296, RUB 81.06, yen 147.05, sing 1.2840, HKD 7.6956, INR 88.20, China 7.1307, peso 18.65, BRL 5.4297, BBDXY 1,201, Dollar Index 97.77, Oil $64.01, 10-year 4.23%, Silver $39.73, Platinum $1365.00, Palladium $1,129.00, Copper $4.59, and Gold… $3,448

That’s it for this Sunday… With each day that passes the temps warm up a bit more than the previous day, but still not regular August summer heat weather!  I missed my heart doctor’s appointment on Friday… UGH! I simply lost track of the time, it was morning, and I was eating my Raisin Bran, and said, oh-no! I’ve been eating a lot of cereal since these stomach problems began… Something sweet and a bit good for me….  At the end of this next week, I’ll be traveling to San Diego for a wedding… My son, Alex grew up and his best friend was Jack, who we took on vacation with us a few times…  Paul Simon takes us to the finish line today with his song: Kodachrome I hope you have a Super Sunday and a great holiday, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rally on Wednesday
• The Fed Independant? NOT!

Good Day… and a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, my beloved Cardinals got good pitching last night, but no hitting and lost 2-1. UGH!I had a dear friend of mine contact me yesterday and wanted to how to subscribe to my letter… I was honored to say the least! I hope she does! ( I gave her instructions) It’s been quite a few years now since a marketing dept attempted to market my letter… So, I’ll take any additions that come my way!  The late Great Leon Russell greets me this morning with his song: Back To The Island… 

Well, the dollar was skitterIsh yesterday, and tried to go lower, but… I’m sure the PPT (Plunge Protection Team) saw to it that it didn’t slide too far. The BBDXY lost 1 index anyway, and the index ended the day at 1,204…  It didn’t matter to Gold, which gained $32 and closed at $3,397, which is so near to $3,400 that it could spit in $3,400’s back yard… Remember what I told you yesterday, the SPT’s have an axe to grind with Gold going over $3,400, so if it doesn breach that level today, then the SPT’s will be out in force… 

Silver also gained 41-cents yesterday, and closed at $38.88, as Silver tries like the Dickens to get to $40… Because once Silver gets over $40, I feel the next stop will be $50… To Infinity and Beyond! 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $63 throughout the day yesterday, and the 10-year Treasury saw some buyers… Really? Right? But it did and the yield on the bond fell to 4.22%

In the overnight markets last night… the skittish dollar yesterday carried over the overnight markets and the dollar got sold with the BBDXY down 4 index points to start today at 1,201… The euro had been tugged and pushed around like a rag doll recently, but with the dollar weaker, the euro is looking healthier…  Overnight, Gold was bought in the early markets and is up $9 to start our day… and Silver is up 18-cents… Both metals have gone past phycological level overnight, with Gold over $3,400 and Silver over $39 at this point, before the SPT’s arrive at their desks…  

Well, there was news yesterday that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is going to lighten up their supply of U.S. dollars and swap them for euros…    That can’t be good news for the dollar, but excellent news for the Eurozone and the euro! 

And in another news story that I read, Larry Summers (we all know him as the former Treasury Sec under Clinton who coined the phrase “A strong dollar is in our best interests”   He stated that he believed that the POTUS’ firing of Lisa Cook (The fed head) for lying on her mortgage application, will be historic…  No kidding, Mr. Obvious!  See what happens when you’re put out to pasture you’ll try anything to get your mug on TV again! 

Circling back to the dollar…  you know, with inflation continuing to rise again, this is going to be a nail in the dollar’s coffin…  and will be a bonus for Gold… So, keep that in mind when the inflation numbers are released again… 

Well, yesterday the 50% tariffs on India became a reality and so did our Political friendship with India… India will just turn to China (whom they’ve been fighting conflicts with for a very long time) and send their goods there… China will be glad to receive them with no strings attached…  I’m just saying…

The heat on the Treasuries with the POTUS firing the Fed Head, hasn’t really fazed the 10-year Treasury too much, instead the markets are taking it out on the 30-year Treasury… The long bond as they used to call in on the Bond Desk.  The gap between the 5-year and 30-year yields is steepest since 2021.   And that was during the plandemic… Yes, I meant to spell it like that… more is coming out as time goes on about the whole mess so read up so you know….  

The thing that really gets me is the repo market was in deep dookie in Sept 2019, and with each month the numbers were looking like the who repo market would implode, and then COVID appeared, and everyone’s attention shifted from the problems in the repo market to the virus…  What happened to all those problems? Did the Banks get some secret money to make it all disappear?  I don’t know… But I wish I did!

And don’t look now, oh go ahead and peek at the currency roundup if you want to, and you’ll see that China’s renminbi has been allowed to strengthen to 7.13… That’s the highest-level VS the dollar that I can remember short term, without going to Google and asking, which I’m in no mood to do, so there! The Chinese are selling less to the U.S. because of the tariffs, so why not allow your currency to gain on the dollar?  That’s how I see it… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today gets back to economic table today with first, the usual Thursday fare Weekly Initial Jobs Claims…  And then a little later this morning we’ll see the fist revision of 2^nd QTR GDP… A lot has happened to the economy since the 2^nd QTR, so truthfully, I don’t see any reason to go through all this! 

To recap… The dollar looked jittery yesterday but Chuck thinks that the PPT helped the dollar get through the day with only a 1 index point loss in the BBDXY.. Gold & Silver had banner days…  And if those dastardly devils (SPT’s) left the metals alone to trade on their own, we would be having this conversation bout banner days nearly every day!  Larry Summers throws in his 2-cents… And the Swiss National Bank is going to sell dollars and buy euros… 

For What It’s Worth… I’ve talked about the POTUS’s firing of Lisa Clark (Fed Head) two times this week, and the more I thought about it the more my thoughts came around to this email I received from the good folks at GATA. And it’s about that and can be found here: Why Trump’s challenge to Fed’s independence may make gold the ‘safe haven of choice’ for investors – MarketWatch

Or, here’s your snippet: “President Donald Trump made a move to fire a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, potentially undermining confidence in the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds — and boosting the appeal of gold and other assets perceived as safe havens.

“The Fed’s independence is its calling card, and the move to fire a governor is a direct assault on the Fed’s ability to manage monetary policy free of political motives,” said James St. Aubin, chief investment officer of Ocean Park Asset Management.

When you start to erode faith in monetary policy for the world’s reserve currency, you are playing with fire,” he told MarketWatch. “If the market believes the Fed is making policy in reaction to direct political influence, U.S. assets will become less attractive.” …

Stefan Gleason, president and chief executive at Money Metals, told MarketWatch that the notion of Fed independence is a “myth.”

The Fed is “an inherently political institution, not only because the Board of Governors is appointed by the president with Senate confirmation, but our entire monetary system is now political in nature,” he said. “We no longer have sound money backed by gold, but political money, where policymakers centrally plan the economy via changes to monetary policy.”

That won’t stop some investors, however, from clamoring for alternatives if trust in the Fed is broken, risks to the U.S. dollar and bonds rise, and inflation climbs.

Traditionally, higher inflation has been hedged by real assets — commodities, including gold, oil, and industrial metals, said BNY’s Robert Savage.

Gold just might top that list. “Gold would be the safe haven of choice” for investors if the Fed were ever to lose its independence, said Chris Gannatti, global head of research at WisdomTree, which sees any threat to Fed independence as a “powerful catalyst for gold demand.”

Chuck again… Mr. St. Aubin (above) had better watch saying bad things about the POTUS, he might get fired too!  And this article is behind a subscription wall, so I brought you what I could, but in the end I have just one question… Got Gold?

Market Prices 8/28/2025: American Style: A$ .6527, kiwi .5873, C$ .7265, euro 1.1671, sterling 1.3516, Swiss $ 1.2479, European Style: rand 17.6308, krone 10.0613, SEK 9.4828, forint 339.85, zloty 3.65067, koruna 21.0355, RUB 80.31, yen 146.93, sing 1.2833, HKD 7.7958, INR 87.62, China 7.1316, peso 18.61, BRL 5.4119, BBDXY 1,201, Dollar Index 97.94, Oil $64.09, 10-year 4.23%, Silver $39.06, Platinum $1,358.00, Palladium $1,119.00, Copper $4.51, and Gold… $3,406

That’s it for today… And this week!  I was supposed to be going to lunch with my classmates this afternoon, but instead I’ll be at the hospital getting stuck with needles… I didn’t choose the doctor’s visit, but after I told her of my problems since the last infusion, she said get into her STAT! This will be a long 4-day holiday weekend as Monday will be Labor Day…  The annual Butler Family Labor Day BBQ and Pool party won’t be held this year.. In fact, it has only occurred one time since 2020…  Last year I was too under the weather to have it, and this year too…   It’ll come back next year.. As the Cubs fans used to say, “Wait till next year!” Van Morrison takes us to the finish line today with his song: Moondance…  (I love this song and used to be able to play it on my guitar!) I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and all weekend, Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Buter

• currencies and metals get sold on Tuesday
• The SPT’s can’t stand Gold over $3,400

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Man, that was difficult to watch! My beloved Cardinals pitcher game up 8 runs to start the first 3 innings… That was downright ugly pitching, and the pitcher should be sent down the minors and forgotten about! Oh, there goes Outlook again telling me there’s a softer way of saying that! Shoot Rudy, if soft was what I was after, I would have said it so his feelings wouldn’t be hurt! I talked to my oncologist yesterday about how I’ve been since the last infusion, and she wants to see me immediately on Thursday…  (She secretly has a crush on me and can’t stand to have me away for a month! ) HAHAHAHAHAHA As If!  Chicago greets me this morning with their song: Does Anybody Really Know What Time It Is?   

It’s good for me to see I can still laugh at myself and other things…  My good friend, Rick B, sent me a tik-tok video clip of a SNL ski that was all about Beavis and Butthead from the 80’s… I laughed until I cried! 

Well, the dollar was sold on Monday night into Tuesday by 2 index points, and then proceeded to stay at down 2 index points all day Tuesday… So, no movement from the overnight selling… I wondered what was going to happen with all the jitters around the POTUS’s claim that he would fire Lisa Cook aka Fed head… Well, stocks got sold, but Gold got bought! Gold gained $29 on the day to close at $3,394

The $3,400 level for Gold has been a stumbling block and it’s time in my mind that the Gold traders take it past $3,400 and not look back!

Silver rode Gold’s coattails yesterday and gained 24-cents to close at $38.67… I’m waiting for all the Silver pundits to come out and tell us that this is Silver’s time to close the gap with Gold… That may happen, in fact Silver normally does outperform Gold when the two rally… That is outperforms on a percentage basis… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $63handle yesterday, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield ended the day with a 4.27% yield… 

In the overnight markets last night… And once again, the SPT’s made sure Gold didn’t run past $3,400 as they hit Gold again and the shiny metal is own $19 to start our day today… Silver is really getting the snot kicked out of it and is down 41-cents to start the day today… UGH!   The BBDXY is trading in the same clothes as yesterday, and starts the day at 1,205…  The dollar’s flight has not connected to the metals this morning, and that’s one of the tell-tale signs that the SPT’s are at work… 

The Price of Oil remained trading with a $63 handle, and the 10-year’s yield stuck on 4.27% yesterday, and remains at 4.27% this morning… 

Circling back to Silver… I came across this and thought it best I shared it with you regarding Silver… “Physical investment is a structurally important part of global silver demand, and the most volatile. Notably, over the past 15 years, physical silver investment has ranged between a low of 157.2 million ounces (Moz) in 2017 and a record high of 337.6 Moz, established in 2022. With growing geopolitical tensions, rising government debt, and an increasing investor perception that silver is undervalued compared to gold, the silver price has experienced a 34 percent year-to-date increase. By comparison, the white metal is outperforming gold, which is up 28 percent, and Bitcoin, rising 18 percent year-to-date.” -sharps pixley

Chuck again… I agree, physical ownership is very important to not only Silver but Gold too… if you can’t hold it, you don’t own it… That was what a trader told me many, many years ago. 

Do you ever get the feeling that, here we are with the dollar on tenterhooks, the Debt unsustainable because of the debt servicing costs, and the overall confidence in it all is weak at best, but somehow, someway, just as we near the cliff, something will take place that brings it all back and gets people loving the U.S. again? 

I do, because I read a LOT, and come away with thoughts that we, as a country could very well bypass the default stage by some unknown miracle…  

Well, now there’s this that was reported on the International Man site…  The Mar-A-Lago Accord could be that “miracle”…  I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see, and this is no spoiler alert, because I don’t have an inkling of what the Accord contains, but if rumors are true, it contains a way to reset the price of Gold, and to tie to the dollar somehow… 

So, I hope the powers that be don’t make us wait too long to find out the contents of the Accord… But I’m sure they will, they” have to play this out so that the dark shadows are cast on the U.S. and just when everything looks like it’s crashing in on us, they will pull out the Accord like a magician pulls a rabbit out of his hat, and Suddenly, the sky is blue, the sun is shining and there’s nothing but seashells and balloons … I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the July Durable Goods Orders, and just like I said they would, they printed negative -2.8%… Today’s Data Cupboard is barren, so there’s that… 

To recap… The dollar hasn’t moved in a day, but Gold & Silver sure has, as yesterday they rallied big time, and today they are seeing the SPT’s back at COMEX with arms full of short metals trades… I told you yesterday that the POTUS had stirred up Wall St by announcing that he had fired a Fed Head (Lisa Cook)… There’s never a dull day in the POTUS’s world… 

For What It’s Worth… I found this article very interesting in that even the best credit worthy Americans are falling behind on payments. That article can be found here: US consumers with prime credit are starting to slip on payments

Or, here’s your snippet: “(Reuters) -U.S. consumers with the highest credit scores are starting to fall behind in debt repayments, credit scoring company VantageScore said in a report published on Monday, in a sign that Americans’ financial health may be deteriorating more broadly.

Late repayments over 90 days were up 109% year-over-year in the VantageScore superprime segment, while the prime segment posted a 47% increase year-over-year.

In relative terms the sharpest increase in delinquencies was seen in superprime and prime customers who are typically considered the most financially secure, Rikard Bandebo, chief economist at VantageScore, said.

“Even though in absolute terms the increase is modest, it shows that even consumers considered the most credit-healthy are also beginning to see some stress with regard to repayments.”

There has also been an uptick in late-stage delinquencies in auto loans and mortgages, as consumers grapple with budget strains, Bandebo added.

Defaults in early stage, which constitute late repayments between 30 days and 59 days, increased at the fastest pace in auto loans and mortgages.

“Defaults on secured loans, such as mortgages, typically happen only when the pressure on finances is too much for the consumer to manage,” he said.

Prime customers have credit scores between 661-780, while super prime customers have scores between 781-850, according to VantageScore.

Americans are getting more sensitive to price changes. Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, has scooped up market share from rivals as wealthier consumers frequent the store more often, worried about the effects of tariffs on prices.

U.S. consumer sentiment also softened in August as households anticipated higher goods prices because of import tariffs. Inflation concerns have been weighing on consumers.”

Chuck again… Well, you know how I took care of not ending up on one those delinquent lists? Not have DEBT! I know for lots of people that’s not possible, but if you just put your mind to cleaning up your debt, you’ll be amazed how far you get! I got into a lot of trouble when I first said this years ago… Debt is Slavery…   But those folks in marketing that didn’t like that, aren’t around any longer, so neener neener neener…. I tried to explain to them that it was the title of a book, but they weren’t buying it… 

Market Prices 8/27/2025: American Style: A$.6467, kiwi .5822, C$ .7221, euro 1.1583, sterling 1.3426, Swiss $1.2394, European Style: rand 17.7582, krone 10.1832, SEK 9.5965, forint 342.63, zloty 3.6869, koruna 21.1815, RUB 81.34, yen 148.14, sing 1.2895, HHD 7.7832, INR 87.65, China 7.1627, peso 18.72, BRL 5.4316, BBDXY 1,205, Dollar Index 98.65, Oil $63.65, 10-year 4.27%, Silver $38.26, Platinum $1,346.00, Palladium $1,111.00, Copper $4.48, and Gold… $3,375

That’s it for today… I have doctor appts on back-to-back days starting tomorrow… UGH!  I have to see a new doctor on Friday about my AFib…  that should be interesting… Today is doctor free! So, I think I’ll settle into my chair outside and do some reading in the warm sun… The temps here in St. Louis have really dropped from the usual temps in August… Strange? You bet it is! This weather reminds me of summers in Vancouver… Or San Diego…  Or Denver…  all places that normally experience temps like we’re having now… Radiohead takes us to the finish line today with their song: Karma Police…   I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

• the dollar gets sold, Gold gets bought on Friday!
• Did Powell really tell us anything new?

Good Day… And a Super Sunday to you! Yes, this is coming to you on Sunday, as you might recall me telling you last Thursday that there wouldn’t be a Pfennig on Monday. But, there was so much that went on Friday, and this couldn’t wait until Tuesday to tell you… This won’t be like the Sunday Pfennigs that I used to write, decades ago, so don’t freak out, as this will be short-n-sweet… I watched our City STL soccer club’s game last night… What a joke the referring is in the MSL! The Penalty shot called on the STL club was a ghost penalty!  Oh well… Maroon 5 greets me this morning with their song: This Love

Well, he said the magic words last Friday… Jerome Powell, chairman of the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel decided that he’s taken enough of the guff from the POTUS, and told the crowd at Jackson Hole that “interest rates will be cut soon” according to the markets… What he actually said was that “conditions may warrant rate cuts”…  That’s not exactly what the markets took him to say, but that’s nit-picking isn’t it? 

So much for reading the tea leaves in the FOMC Meeting Minutes last week, that pretty much said, “no, we’re waiting to cut rates”… And that thought had the dollar bugs dancing in the street, and the BBDXY rose to 1,210…  And then Powell, pulled the punchbowl back from the crowd,  and the dollar bugs were dancing no longer…

The dollar began immediately to get sold, and by 11 a.m. The BBDXY had given back 9 index points! And Gold had turned around a negative start to its morning, and was punishing the dollar and taking names later… Gold gained $33 on Friday, and ended the week at $3,373… Silver was also into punishing the dollar and taking names later as it gained $69-cents, and closed the week at $38.95…

The BBDXY ended up Friday, down 9 index points to 1,201, so after the initial knee-jerk reaction to sell dollars, there was no follow-through on Friday… I think the dollar traders thought that they had done enough for one day and so they closed their books and handed them over to Asia for the follow-through…  

The Oil traders were oblivious to the goings on with the Jackson Hole shindig and kept the price of oil trading with a $63 handle to end the week.  And, as you can imagine, the bond boys began to buy bonds once again, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury’s yield came down to end the week at 4.26%… 

Well, that was some kind of reaction to the words, ” conditions may warrant rate cuts”, eh?   I mean he could  have given us more, like when it’s going to warrant the rate cuts, because in his heart of hearts, he knows!  The markets, and rightly so in my mind, took his words to mean at the very next FOMC meeting on Sept 17th…  And with inflation rising… This all spells disaster in my mind… And I know that history doesn’t exactly repeat itself, but history always does  seem to be at the scene of the crime, eh?

In the early 1970’s Arthur Burns was the Fed/ Cabal/Cartel chairman, and he decided to cut rates, with the inflation rate on the rise, thinking that inflation would come back down… But, with the Oil embargo causing the price of Oil to spike, and other things going on, inflation didn’t come back, and instead it started rising, and didn’t stop rising until Paul Volcker put an end to it in 1980-81… Almost a decade of high inflation really took its toll on Middle America…  And Gold went to the moon, at that time that is. Should we expect the same kind of reaction in Gold this time? I would bet your bottom dollar it would! 

I bet that most of you couldn’t tell who the Fed Heads Chairman was in the early 70’s…  That’s because before Big Al Greenspan The Fed Heads were unknown to most of Americans, because they weren’t that important… I’m just saying… I only know because my longtime good friend and former boss, Frank Trotter told me that story years ago! 

Circling back to Gold for a minute… It was quite apparent that the short paper traders weren’t going to let Gold & Silver have a long runway… The SPT’s were in the markets doing damage control all day, and that kept Gold & Silver from gaining more on Friday…  The total of shorts that Ed Steer posts in his Saturday letter each and every week, show that the shorts in Silver are going down. Gold a little less, but still, that’s progress… Still not of the numbers that make sense but progress nonetheless… you can find Ed here: www.edsteergoldandsilver.com  

No Data Cupboard today, it’s Sunday! But, I can tell you that on Tuesday we’ll see the color of the latest Durable Goods… And then on Thursday we’ll see the first revision to the 2^nd QTR GDP, and on Friday we’ll see Personal Income and Spending for July, along with the July PCE (supposedly the Fed Head’s favorite inflation calculator…  And could very well be the key indicator of when the next rate cut will come…  I suspect the PCE will be benign and leave us with more questions than we had going into the print… 

For What It’s Worth… This will be something different in its delivery to you, but why not, it’s a Sunday Pfennig!  The Good Folks at Gata sent this to me, and its a YOUTUBE about the end of the SPT’s and can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-EF4H8X5Fik

Or, here’s your snippet: “London metals trader Andrew Maguire, speaking on this week’s edition of Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program at YouTube, says major participants in the gold market no longer consider the New York Commodities Exchange and the London Bullion Market Association dependable for delivering real metal and are taking their business to Asian exchanges where delivery is quick.

Maguire adds that governments have begun to consider treating silver as a sovereign reserve asset like gold.

He believes that “paper” gold will be finished when the December gold futures contract closes at the end of November and U.S. bullion banks become obliged to comply with Basel III rules and stop selling metal they don’t have.”

Chuck Again… I guess this will depend on whether the Bullion Banks follow the rules, or if they find a way around them… 

Friday’s major markets prices: Gold $3,373, Silver $38.95, BBDXY 1.201, Oil $63.66 and the 10-year 4.26%

That’s it for today… I’m still not steady with my stomach and digestive system, the last infusion really did a number on me!  Or, maybe it was an accumulation of all the infusions that I’ve had since I started them on Dec 30th… But, I’ll have a long discussion about this with my oncologist when I see her next on Sept. 11th… I can’t stand this feeling, but I’ve been in worse condition during my 18-year journey through Cancer…  I guess to have stomach problems and being alive is better than not having them and not being alive! The Rascals takes us to the finish line today with their hit 60’s song: Beautiful Morning…   It’s kind of cloudy out right now, so I can’t agree with them today… HA!  I hope you have a Super Sunday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• FMOC minutes show most Fed Heads fear inflation….
• Gold & Silver recover from Tuesday’s SPT event…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, my eye doctor said I have a good strong eye now, so I have that going for me!  He did tell me again that he is worried about me not wearing plain glasses to protect my good eye… I’ll think about it…  I[m getting used to wearing them only when I read, which is a lot any way! My beloved Cardinals took 2 of 3 from the Marlins and now move north to Tampa Bay… Yesterday, was my darling daughter, Dawn’s Birthday… I still remember the night and early morning when she was born… She had a full head of black hair, that by age one had changed to blonde… Happy Birthday, Boo!  One of my fave Uriah Heep’s songs greets me this morning… Stealin’

Well, another day closer to the Jackson Hole shindig, didn’t change much from the day before when the markets failed to move much… The FOMC meeting Minutes printed from their last meeting, and they reflected the opinion of the FOMXC Committee members that inflation is still a problem and that it’s most likely to get worse, and that the Ma and Pa’s are going to feel the brunt of the hurt from inflation.. 

Does that sound like a Committee that’s ready to cut rates?  Not to me… But then the Committee members are feeling tons of pressure from the POTUS to cut rates… Wait! Isn’t the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel supposed to be independent? Don’t tell Janet Yellen that, because late in Trump’s first campaign, she hike rates for no apparent reason, other than to get the new president off on bad foot…  I’m just saying… 

OK, well, because some of the traders out there still have some gray matter, and come around to my way of thinking every now and then, they took the FOMC’s notes and said, ” no rate cut, yet”…  And that helped the dollar bugs and the BBDXY gained 1 index point on the day to end the day at 1,206…  Now, I’m saying that there will be no rate cut next month, what I am saying the idea of a rate cut is more questionable now… 

Gold recovered from the engineered takedown the SPT’s gave it on Tuesday, when it was down $17, and came back strong by gaining $32 yesterday to close at $3,346. Silver had a tough time on Tuesday too, losing 65-cents, but gained most of it back yesterday, gaining 53-cents to close at $37.85

The price of Oil ended the day with a $63 handle… And the 10-year Treasury Bond saw some buying (from whom? I can only guess who!) and the yield ended the day at 4.30%… 

In the overnight markets last night… The Minutes causing dollar buying carried over to the overnight markets last night, and the BBDXY is up 2 index points this morning at 1,208… OK, this is when, in the past, the Fed Heads would “surprise” the markets, and then sit back at the Eccles Bldg. And laugh HAHAHAHAHA! So, this could be the trap the Fed Heads are setting… That everyone gives up the ghost on a rate cut next month, but the Fed Heads surprise the markets with one! 

I wouldn’t put it past them to do that… I doubt they will though… I’m just saying… 

Gold is seeing some selling this morning is down $7 to start the day, while Silver is up 4-cents…  I would be nice to see a more than one day and done rally for the metals, now wouldn’t it?  The price of Oil remained trading with a $63 handle overnight, and the 10-year’s yield didn’t move and starts today at 4.30%

Well, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut rates yesterday, to 3.0%… Their statement centered around how while inflation is  still in the 2-3% range, their models have inflation lowering toward 2%, So, they went ahead and cut rates now…  I think they will rue the day that jumped the gun… I’m just saying… And the markets are thinking correctly as they sold kiwi after the RBNZ debased the currency…

And remember when I said that the Bank of England (BOE) would rue the day that they jumped the gun and cut rates too soon, that inflation would come back to bite them in the rear? Well check this out; “inflation rose to 3.8% in the year to July, the highest since January 2024, the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show.”  Just show to go you, that these Central Banks would be far better off if they just read the Pfennig and listened to me! HA! 

Circling back to the U.S. and good and longtime reader of mine, sent me this note: ” In 2014 $264 billion worth of 10-year notes issued in 2014 will become due and payable this year.

In 2017, they issued $368.8 billion worth of 7-year notes. And those 7-year notes issued in 2017 are due and payable this year. 

Chuck Again.. now add that  to the new debt that will be issued this year, and we’ve probably get to a number that’s bone chilling!”

And at a much higher rate than what they issued at that’s for sure! It’s time for the U.S. Gov’t/ Treasury, revaluate Gold, eh?  IF the U.S. really does hold over 8,000 Tons of physical Gold, do you think that revaluing it would make a dent in our debt?  Only if the revalue price is something out of this world! In, fact if they revalued Gold to $5,000 oz… That would only pay for one’s years debt servicing!  Insane, right? 

Remember when I told you that 1 Trillion years ago, puts us Before Christ was born? And now we have $37 Trillion in debt…  Think about that and tell me how we get out of this mess?  Default? Well, we would have go all-in on the default and start all over again, and hopefully there’s still someone in the world that would take our new debt… 

You may also recall me telling that James Rickards told us about the $150 Trillion Birthright, right? This is what the minerals are worth that are still in the ground on Federal Land… There’s a whole story on the Birthright thing, I suggest you Google it and find out more, but I’m here to tell you that IF all goes well, we won’t begin to see these gains for years… And also let me tell you that none of that $150 Trillion will make it your mailbox in the form of a check….   

OK, fair and balanced … I told you one way we default and one way we dig ourselves out of this debt mess…. Go ahead and hang your hat on one, and then make your investment decisions on whichever you take….  but for me… Got Gold?

The U.S. Data Cupboard has the Leading Indicators for July today… This data set has been negative for so long now that the Dead Seas wasn’t even sick yet, when it started! And then Tomorrow is the BIG DAY! Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chairman Jerome Powell will give is keynote presentation at the Jackson Hole Shindig..  It will interesting if he gives any indication that he read the FOMC minutes, or what his direction will lead to…   

To recap… The FOMC Meeting Minutes really threw a spanner in the works yesterday, and caused the dollar bugs to buy dollars, and the Bond Boys to buy bonds… Chuck has some interesting things to think about in today’s Pfennig, something for you to chew on all weekend! 

For What It’s Worth… Recall that I keep saying that U.S. Companies are going to go belly up? Well, this article puts some ammo in my gun so to speak… This about how many Companies have gone belly up so far this year and it can be found here: US corporate bankruptcies soar, cross 2020 pandemic levels with 71 filings in a month: Report – US News | The Financial Express

Or, here’s your snippet: ” The US economy has been hit by a fresh wave of bankruptcy filings, which has surged to their highest level since 2020 Covid-19 pandemic, when similar situations were seen across the country. A report in Business Insider mentioned that several popular brands of 1990s and 2000s brands were among the companies that have filed for bankruptcy, continuing a trend that lays open the status of the United States’ economy.

Data from S&P 500 Global showed that this summer, the number of filing for US corporate bankruptcy surpassed the level of 2020, the Business Insider report mentioned. A total of 71 public and private companies filed for bankruptcy last month, which is 8 more than June when 63 companies had filed for bankruptcy.

Which companies have filed for bankruptcy?

According to the report, the companies include some beloved brands like Forever 21 and Joann. Many other famous retailers are forced to shut their stores to reduce physical footprint amid loss. While the US stock market has been standing tall to any economic upheaval with 3% economic growth in the second quarter, some experts said July is rather stressful, the report mentioned.

Focus on 30 export markets to intensify amid impending slump in shipments to US

“Companies are contending with elevated interest rates as uncertainty from US tariff policy pressures costs and supply chain resilience,” S&P 500 Global said, Insider quoted.

Companies like Canned goods producer Del Monte Foods filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, as they witnessed reduced demand and high inventory costs. Their leadership reportedly also cited a heavy debt burden. Last month, a Business Insider report had claimed that Del Monte had combined debts of between $1 billion and $10 billion.”

Chuck again… And they blame it on high interest rates, while I don’t argue that the aren’t helping, IF you consider 4.25% a high interest rate!  Not a word about how these companies borrowed BIG TIME at low interest rates, and now have to roll over the loans to higher interest rates… Nah, that would be telling the truth, and not lies… I’m just saying… 

Market Prices 8/21/2025: American Style: A$ .6524, kiwi .5823, C$ .7239, euro 1.1629, sterling 1.3461, Swiss  $1.2403, European Style: rand 17.6110, krone 10.1760, SEK 9.5912, forint 340.08, zloty 3.6528, koruna 21.0705, RUB 80.57, yen 147.81, sing 1.2872, HKD 7.8130, INR 87.26, China 7.1784, peso 18.75, BRL 5.4290, BBDXY 1,208, Dollar Index 98.36, Oil $63.18, 10-year 4.30%, Silver $37.89, Platinum $1,337.00, Palladium $1,123.00, Copper $4.50, and Gold… 3,339

That’s it for today… There will be no Pfennig on Monday next week, as I have a doctor’s appt many miles from here. He is my lungs doctor, just a follow up to make sure I continued my recovery…  And next week we close out August… I’m not going to attempt to have my traditional Butler Family Labor Day BBQ, this year… I’m just not ready for that yet… The College Football Season begins this weekend. YAHOO! I cooked me a thick steak on the Brownstone last night, and then couldn’t eat it, my stomach revolted on me! UGH! Steak and eggs this morning? Now that sounds good, C’Mon stomach play along with me here! The Beach Boys takes us to the finish line today with their mega hit song: Gold Only Knows…  One of the best Beach Boys songs in their list of hit songs… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals get sold on Monday…
• Dastardly SPT’s, doing dastardly things…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Day today for you!  Another day of distress for my digestive system, I hope it ends soon, for I don’t want to have to stop withe the medicine they are infusing in me… In 2018, I was on a chemo medicine that made my stomach so awful they had to take me off the medicine… The doctors soon found another chemo for me, and since then I haven’t had major stomach problems that last long… until now… UGH!  My beloved Cardinals beat the Marlins in Miami last night, now if only they could build on that victory and get another the next night, and the next night, etc   In 2011, the Cardinals were 10.5 games out of a playoff spot in late August.  And ended up qualifying for the Playoffs! They achieved this remarkable feat with a 23-9 record to close out the season…. Hey! Stranger things have happened, which a true fan sticks with the hope…. Booker T and the M.G.’s greet me this morning with their song: Green Onions…

Well, in our world of opposites the dollar rallied yesterday, on the thought that the next rate cut would be announced as coming from Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole shindig that is coming this week… The BBDXY ended the day at 1,205… A memo to the dollar traders… When a country debases their currency with rate cuts you are supposed to sell the currency… I just don’t get it… Back in the day when I was I was first learning the ropes to currency trading, this is what I learned… Debase the currency, the currency suffers… End of story… But in this day of sentiment ruling currency traders direction instead of fundamentals, we get this opposite behavior… 

Gold and Silver on the other hand should rallly when rates get cut… And they got sold yesterday, with Gold selling down $12 and Silver lost 31-cents…  what will it take to return to fundamentals? God only knows (Beach Boys) Gold held steady for a good part of the day yesterday, until the short paper traders entered the market… Again! 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $63 handle, and the 10-year’s yield ended the day with a 4.33% yield. 

In the overnight markets last night… There wasn’t any movement from the dollar bugs overnight, the BBDXY is still at 1,205 this morning as we start our day…  I think the markets are for lack of a better description, holding their breaths, ahead of the Jackson Hole shindig… So, there’s that… Gold, this morning is up $7 to start our day, and Silver is up 14-cents… But when you look back to yesterday, Gold & Silver were up early, before the short paper traders arrived, and plotted their dastardly design to take down the metals… Who knows where Gold & Silver would have ended the day had the short paper traders had a flat tire on the way to work and didn’t show up! I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil slid bac to the $52 handle overnight… A very tight range… And the 10-year Treasury is stating the day with a 4.32% yield…  I just don’t see much movement in the markets the next couple of days with the Jackson Hole shindig on the horizon… 

I really went long an tough on the U.S. and its debt yesterday, eh? Well, someone should take the  lawmakers and Central Bank to the wood shed  besides me… But here I am all by myself ( Eric Carmen). I need Lola, Citi, Morgan Stanley, and other big banks to diss the U.S. and the debt for anything to get take hold.. But that won’t happen because they’d get taken to the woodshed by the POTUS…

I have something for you in the FWIW section today, that’s not a widely used indicator, but I think it should be heard… and so I let them opine here! 

And there will be no Pfennig tomorrow for I have to be at the eye doctor early… It’s just a check-up from my cataract surgery… no biggie… So, mark your calendars… 

With the markets holding their breath… There’s not a lot to talk about that I haven’t already beaten like an old rug… 

There is a report that mining companies are looking to go back to the Black Hills of S. Dakota again… There was a gold rush there 150 or so years ago, and the native Indians were displaced… So, the mining cos. Are not being welcomed back with open arms… With Gold prices over $3,000 oz, you can see why the mining cos are wanting to come back… Well, please don’t disrupt the natural beauty of the area!  

You know when I was a youngster I used to read about stuff from the 1800’s and think that it really wasn’t that long ago, but now… That’s eons from now!  

The U.S. Data Cupboard has two housing prints, and two Fed Heads our speaking…  I told you yesterday that the Data Cupboard was a non-event this week… So, we’re stuck with all distractions that the Gov’t keeps throwing up to get out minds off how bad things are… The Cost of Living is rising…  The debt is unsustainable… And Companies will be soon coming to grips with fact that they can’t continue… UGH!

To recap… The dollar got bought yesterday, because we’re growing closer to the Jackson Hole shindig, and the markets are thinking that Jerome Powell’s keynote speech will tell them ahead of the meeting in Sept, what the Fed is going to do, and that’s cut rates…  Chuck explains how that thought process is backward, but we are living in an age of opposites! 

For What It’s Worth… Well, a pre-sold this article above and now it’s time to deliver the goods, and they can be found here: Cardboard Box Sales Fall in Worrying Sign for US Retail – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet; ‘Analysts and investors will scour Friday’s retail sales report for a readout on how US households are feeling about the economy. Those watching the cardboard box industry say they already have an idea.

A nontraditional economic indicator, sales of the corrugated cardboard used to make the boxes that transport everything from doughnuts to dishwashers are slumping, signaling that retail demand across industries may be due for its own correction in the not-too-distant future.

US box shipments—that is, volumes of empty packaging materials sold to retailers, which in turn use them to ship orders to warehouses, storefronts and Americans’ doorsteps—fell to the lowest second-quarter reading since 2015, according to data from Fibre Box Association, a trade group. (Corrugated cardboard also goes into other items, such as 3D advertising displays, but since the vast majority is used for packaging, the industry tends to use “box shipments” and “corrugated cardboard shipments” interchangeably.)

Memphis-based International Paper Co., one of the world’s largest pulp and paper companies, reported a 5% drop in daily US box shipments in the quarter from the same period a year ago, while packaging giant Smurfit Westrock Plc, based in Dublin, saw a 4.5% slide in North American corrugated cardboard volumes, the biggest drop across all of the regions it operates. “If volume picked up in the United States, that would give us more confidence, but we haven’t seen that yet,” Chief Executive Officer Anthony Smurfit said on a recent earnings call.

The strength of the highly seasonal cardboard box industry isn’t necessarily a one-to-one proxy for retail spending, but—like beauty-shop outlays or consumer sentiment—it can flash early signals when things start to go amiss. And because boxes aren’t usually ordered that far in advance, they can offer a nearly real-time indicator of buying and manufacturing activity.”

Chuck Again…Well, that was different, eh? Only time will tell if it was a true indicator, of which I do believe It is… I’m just saying…

Market Prices 8/19/2025: American Style: A$ .6490, kiwi .5921, C$ .7239, euro 1.1681, sterling 1.3516, Swiss $ 1.2413, European Style: rand 17.6243, krone 10.2081, SEK 9.5439, forint 337.04, zloty 3.6347, koruna 20.9431, RUB 80.79, yen 147.76, sing 1.2831, HKD 7.8020, INR 86.95, China 7.1793, peso 18.78, BRL 5.4363, BBDXY 1,205, Dollar Index 98.03, Oil $ 62.62, 10-year 4.32%, Silver $38.11, Platinum $1,351.00. Palladium $1,143.00, Copper $4.52, and Gold… $3,341

That’s it for today…Well, I ran some errands yesterday, without any stomach problems, so that was good, but as soon as I arrived home, they began… UGH! The kids around here are back to school… So be careful out there!  The Brewers finally lost! After 14 consecutive wins… And then the next day they started another winning streak VS the Cubs… They are THE team this year… I was so upset with Amazon… On 8/15 I ordered a book, and the next day they told me it wouldn’t arrive here until 8/23! UGH! When you can’t depend on next day delivery any longer, you know that the economy is showing strains… Chicago takes us to the finish line today with their song: 25 or 6 to 4… The first time I heard this song and the the guitar playing of Terry Kath, I was blown away!   I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies rally on Friday, but get sold overnight last night
• That old Debt….

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my fumbling, stumbling, beloved Cardinals found a way to blow leads in the final two games of the series with the Yankees, and got swept! There’s not a lot in the way of data this week, so we’ll be subjected to the Gov’t’s attempt to divert our attention away from the problems… Look, there, I already started today with the attack… I’m still feeling the effects of my infusion last Thursday… I normally get over them in one day, but this time it has held onto me for 4 days… UGH!   J.D Southern greets me this morning with his song; You’re Only Lonely

And that’s exactly how I felt when I had no “Tech” person to handle my problems last week… This working as a lone wolf has its benefits, but not having someone to go to when I have problems is not one of them!  Oh well, que sera, sera… 

The U.S. dollar ran into some selling on Friday, and the BBDXY was lowered by 3 index points, to 1,202… The dollar had a brief rally on Thursday last week that took the BBDXY to 1,205, and that rally came about because the PPI (wholesale inflation) leapt higher to  gain .9% in July… Now, we all know that PPI leads to higher CPI (consumer inflation) and that would be another chip for the rate cut bugs… Opposite of what should happen when a country debases their currency, right? But we live in this era of opposites, so that’s that! 

Gold is in the summer swoon, and investors will come back in September, but for now Gold has to be strong and resilient to maintain its value… And on Thursday last week Gold lost $21 and Silver lost 60-cents…  And on Friday, Gold tried like the dickens to gain ground but was snuffed out by the short paper traders every time it mounted a charge, and ended the day down 30-cents… So, flat if you will.. And Silver did the same as Gold and was down a plug nickel… yes, 5-cents…  

Speaking of Gold… this from Goldmoney.com “A stand-out feature was the scale of stand-for-deliveries in the Comex gold contract, at 90.6 Tonnes from 31 July so far, reflecting the expiry of the August contract. 267.5 Tonnes of silver were also stood for delivery. To put these numbers in context, 861 Tonnes of gold have been stood for delivery since 1 January.”

In my mind, this is a very good sign for Gold (& Silver), as it means that more investors are taking deliver, of physical Gold!  

The price of Oil bumped higher for the first time in over 10 days,  on Thursday and then gave it back on Friday, to end the week with a $62 handle…  And the 10-year continued to see buyers until it didn’t… And it didn’t on Thursday after the PPI  printed, and the bond boys got spooked… The 10-year ended the week with a 4.32% yield…  Now that was quite the turnaround wasn’t it? I had reported that the 10-year’s yield was 4.20% on Thursday morning… 

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar was bought by a bit, with the BBDXY rising 2 index points, and we start the day/ week at 1,204… Gold is firmer this morning, gaining $12 to start the day/ week, and Silver is up 11-cents. I think the markets will be subdued this week as everyone is looking toward the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Symposium starts on Thursday…  But then, what do I know? A lot, thank you! HA!  

The price of Oil has bumped higher overnight and starts our day/ week with a $63 handle… There’s an Oil glut right now according to our friends (NOT!) at OPEC… So, that should keep the price of Oil trading in a tight range… And the bond boys are keeping the selling going in the 10-year Treasury, as the yield of the bond rose to 4.32% where it starts the day/week. 

I have an old friend, not saying he’s old, just our acquaintance is old… Dan Denning is his name and he writes for Bonner Privat Research group… that consists of Bill Bonner, Dan Denning and Tom Dyson. They put out tremendous stuff about investing and the data behind it…Their subscription costs, so if you interested, click the link below… Every week, Dan Denning sends me his letter… I hope he doesn’t mind me borrowing a line or two from his letter: 

 And further, that Americans are more tied to stocks in their 401k’s than ever before…  And this plays well with my thought on the season of opposites going on.. Here’s Dan, ” investors poo poohing 2.7% annualized CPI numbers–and bidding up stocks even higher–is another example of the kind of self-deception that’s only possible at the end of a cycle. So is is believing both higher than normal CPI and PPI readings mean the Fed could cut 50 or 100 basis points when it meets next month. Madness. Hallucinations.”

Chuck again…  To me, that’s all very scary… Hy Minsky called what will eventually happen, a Minsky Moment..  And speaking of something scary… It was reported last week that investors in their late 30’s have 88% of their 401k’s in stocks… 

I know, I know this is a currency, metals, economies, and dolts, letter, not a stock letter… But there’s something strange going on that reminds me of the dot-com bubble.. During that bubble’s rise, there was Cisco leading the way… Just like the AI bubble that’s now building… It’s leader, will be sorted out in time, but my guess would be that it’s there right now… I’m not naming names, because that could get me in trouble… But I know you can guess who it is… 

Ok… back to regimen!  

Last week I talked about how the U.S. Current Debt has surpassed $37 Trillion…  I’ve been banging the drum to reduce our debt for decades now… And not once have out lawmakers taken that thought to heart, and cut expenditures… Here’s where the cheese comes to bind folks.. We, as a country cannot pay down our debt, so when the financing tool for the debt comes due, we simply roll it for a new term… At a much higher rate than the original debt was held…  Are you getting what I’m telling you? This cannot go on forever, in fact, I doubt it can go on past another 5 years, but then, that’s just me… And to me, this alone is NO REASON to hold U.S. dollars, except for gas, groceries and giggles… 

My favorite read, Grant Williams’ Things That Make You Go Hmmm… featured the U.K and France’s debt problem they are in… So, it’s not just the U.S. with this debt problem…  But, we live here and work here and have fun here, and for that we’ll get to pay for the tariffs that have been implemented, and we’ll also get to deal with higher inflation, and Companies going belly up, thus putting lots of people out of jobs… Oh Boy! Can I have another helping of this? NOT!

Are you willing to have your 401K’s denominated in nothing but Treasuries? Because that’s what it is going to come to, as countries around the world balk at buying Treasuries and there’s nowhere else for Treasuries to go, except your 401K… I’m just saying… 

I know, I’m full of seashells and balloons this morning… NOT! I can’t stop on the subject once I get going on debt…  

But the word is out… The U.S. isn’t going to cut expenditures, nor is it going to even attempt to do so… And for that reason alone, the FOMC is left with no choice but to cut rates to lessen the weight on the U.S. finances, but that will invite inflation back to the table, as it has been sent to the kids’ table for a while… 

And will it hurt everyone? No… only you, me and the guy down the street that cuts his grass with his shirt off… The regular Joes are the ones that will feel the effects of the rising inflation…  And no, I’m not one of those that believe the Rich could pay off our debt…  There’s no way that could even come close, but what I do believe we could do is to raise their taxes to a rate that closer to the one we pay, 25-30%, that increase alone would help pay for some of the line items in the budget… 

Got Gold?  I know that owning Gold can be frustrating at times as the short paper traders take their pound of flesh… But much like the toaster oven the chef is on TV hawking, set it and forget it… Buy Gold and forget you have it if you get antsy about selling it when it looks bleak…. And when Battle Bank gets the wink and nod from the regulators to open, they will allow Gold in IRA’s… So, get ready to transfer your IRA to them, because that’s a great idea! 

There’s not much going on in the world these days, with regard to monetary policy, so we’ll just move along, for these are not the droids we’re looking for…But the Jackson Hole shindig will hold the key this week… with the chief jefe speaking, the markets will want signs that he’s going to cut rates at the next meeting… If he fails to deliver, the markets will genuflect and react negatively… Who knows which way the sentiment will fall with the dollar at that point… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard on Friday last week had some surprising data for us… First up was the July Retail Sales, which I had told you last week that the BHI indicated that it would be good… And it was, rising .5%…  Apparently to back to school purchasing was off the record!  Industrial Production for July was negative -.1%… I have something for you on Industrial Production in the FWIW section today, so stay turned!.. And Capacity Utilization slipped lower again to 77.5%…  And finally on Friday, the STUPID Consumer Sentiment for August (prelim) fell from 62.5 to 57.2… Maybe, just maybe more people are waking up and smelling the coffee?

This week’s Data Cupboard will be an exercise in nothingness…  We’ll see the FOMC meeting minutes from the last meeting… The only thing to look for here is how many dissenters were there to keeping rates unchanged… We should keep track of their names so we can tar and feather them when rates are lowered and inflation comes back with a vengeance! 

August 21-23… mark your calendars! The 2025 Jackson Hole meeting will take place and the Fed/ Cabal Cartel Chairman, Jerome Powell will give the keynote address… This is the meeting that Quantitative Easing was first announced to the public years ago… So, we could look for fireworks, or a packet of lies… take your pick, both won’t be good for the economy… I’m just saying

To recap…  The dollar got sold on Friday, but rallied overnight to get some of the loss back, we start the day/ week at 1,204 in the BBDXY… Gold is in the summer swoon, so any gains it musters is icing on the cake.. This has happened with Gold about every summer I can recall… And then Chuck goes bananas on the Debt… He goes on and on and on about it, so if you skipped it you might want to go back and see what bee got into his bonnet!

For What It’s Worth… Well, thanks to Ed Steer’s Saturday letter, I found this article about Industrial Production…  We DO have to make stuff that people use, right? Anyway, you can find the article here: America Don’t Need No “Independent” Fed

Or, here’s your snippet: “Talk about hiding in plain sight. Here is possibly the most important graph ever about the flagging state of the US economy and the utter failure of Washington’s constant efforts during the last two decades to “stimulate” improved outcomes.

To wit, the US industrial production index—which measures the sum of manufacturing, energy, mining, and utility output—marched straight uphill at a 3.3% annual rate between 1954 and 2007. Yet since then it has essentially plateaued, rising by just 0.10% per annum during the past 17 years.

That’s right. The growth rate of America’s industrial foundation has plunged by 97% since the pre-crisis peak in Q4 2007. And yet June’s industrial production index, which was up a small tad, gets headlined as a sign of economic strength. In fact, the longer-term chart below screams the very opposite.

After all, there is no logic that says an economy can remain healthy and prosperous that is increasingly based on educating a shrinking number of kids, feeding an expanding national waistline at fast food joints, and changing adult diapers among the soaring share of the population composed of octogenarians. At the end of the day, you actually have to make things in order for the population to pay for taking in each other’s laundry.

As it has happened, however, during the 48 months since June 2021 the industrial production index has been negative or flat nearly half the time on a month-over-month basis. For all practical purposes, the US industrial economy is just playing “mother may I”, advancing one step forward and the next step backwards month after month. And if that’s “strong” or even a sign of anything except decaying performance, we’d suggest the English language has lost all meaning.

As it happens, the disconnect becomes even more dramatic when you compare the production of goods since Q4 2007 with the constant dollar value of goods consumption (PCE) during the same period. That is to say, cumulative real consumption of goods (durable and non-durable) rose by 62% but domestic industrial output was up by only 1.4%!

To reprise, industrial production growth has essentially ground to a halt at 0.1% per year since 2007, notwithstanding a 13.3% per annum expansion of Fed credit. Self-evidently, all that high-powered central bank money was going somewhere, but clearly it was not into the production of goods on Main Street.”

Chuck again, yes , David Stockman has hit the nail on the head here… And as he says early on in the article, you should check out the graph of industrial production… I’m just saying… And as David says in the article, if this is what you call “strong” then we have to change the meaning of the world in the dictionary! 

Market Prices 8/17/2025: American Style: A$ .6511,  kiwi .5936, C$ .7252, euro 1.1675, sterling 1.3540, Swiss $ 1.2386, European Style: rand 17.61, krone 10.1804, SEK 9.5579, forint 338.81, zloty 3.6404, koruna 20.9591, RUB 80.49, yen 147.55, sing 1.2828, HKD 7.8177, INR 87.34, China 7.1790, peso 18.81, BRL 5.4299, BBDXY 1,204, Dollar Index 98.00, Oil $63.50, 10-year 4.32%, Silver $38.16, Platinum $1,335.00, Palladium $1,121.00, Copper $4.52, and Gold… $3,346

That’s it for today… I think the months of receiving the infusions are finally getting to me… Ever since last Thursday, I’ve slept a lot, and my stomach hasn’t stopped gurgling… My digestive system is shot! Shoot Rudy, I couldn’t even go to the local watering hole on Friday to meet my friends! UGH! Saturday, I manned up, and cooked some smashed burgers on the Brownstone for my darling granddaughter’s family birthday celebration… I had to cede to my oldest son, Andrew to finish for me as the heat finally got to me… What a wimp I was! I used to be able to stand at the grill in any kind of heat, because I loved doing it… But the 18 years of chemo have made me a wimp… UGH! My favorite guitarist, Carlos Santana, takes us to the finish line today with his song: Europa (Earth’s Cry, Heaven’s Smile) I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies get sold on Wednesday…
• We have a new minister of lies for the BLS

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! I know, I know, I told you there would be no Pennig on Thursday, but after a review of my schedule, I determined that I could get “something” to you today before I have to leave for the hospital for my infusion… The Cardinals found yet another way, to lose a game yesterday… Tsk, Tsk…  I sat outside to read yesterday, but had to have the umbrella up to provide shade as it was a hot one! I had to say to myself, of course it’s hot Chuck, it’s August in St. Louis! Gerry & The Pacemakers greet me this morning with their song: Ferry Cross The Mersey… Whenever that song comes on, my mind goes back to when son Alex was just a toddler, and I would rock him to sleep every night, while singing that song to him… 

Well, the dollar gained back the 2 index points it had lost in the overnight markets on Tuesday… So, Wednesday in the U.S. Session, the dollar was bought by a bit, not a lot, but by a bit… When I checked it last night, it has lost those 2 index points already.  Gold continued to come back from it last takedown by the short paper traders, and gained $3 yesterday to close at $ 3,357… Silver also continues to gain back lost ground last week, by gaining 16-cets to close at $38,57… The good witch, Glinda came out and told everyone to come out now that the Big Bad short paper traders have left…. for now… 

The price of Oil remained in the $62 handle for the day, while the 10-year treasury’s yield dropped some more ending the day with a 4.23%

You know, all this talk of rate cuts, and the dropping 10-year’s yield, is helping Gold as we go along here… 

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar didn’t move and stayed in the 1,201 handle of the BBDXY all night. So we start the day today at 1,201…  Gold is Seeing some selling this morning and is down $2 to start the day, while Silver is seeing some heavier selling and is down 39-cents to start the day…  The price of Oil remained in the $62 handle all night.. And the 10-year Treasury saw some more buying, which lowers the yield and it stats today with a 4.20% yield… 

Well, looky here… The U.S.  Debt crossed over to $37 Trillion in the past couple of days… A dear reader sent me a note about the $37 Trillion debt, and I thought to myself, ‘it was only a matter of when not if, it would reach $37 Trillion.. 

That means that we, as a country have added $1 Trillion to our debt in the last 5 months, and that’s how long it took to get to $36 Trillion too, just 5 months! It’s like a snowball rolling downhill, getting bigger and bigger as it goes… 

I also saw that the monthly debt was HUGE… The U.S. Treasury reported that the Federal spending totaled $629.6 billion in July — 9.7% higher than July of last year.

Meanwhile, revenue totaled $338.5 billion — up only 2.5% from a year earlier despite a 290% leap in tariff revenue.

The result was a monthly deficit of $291.1 billion — up from $243.7

Thanks for the info from Dave Gonigam at the Paradigm Pressroom’s 5 Bullets… 

So, the monthly numbers just keep getting larger… That’s going the wrong way as far as I’m concerned… We, as a country, should be looking for way to cut spending, and not for ways to spend more!  The debt servicing on the growing debt is going to choke us…  I’m just saying…

And speaking of interest rate cuts, Bloomerg.com had this from the U.S. Treasury, “US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made his most explicit call yet for the Federal Reserve to execute a cycle of interest-rate cuts, suggesting the central bank’s benchmark ought to be at least 1.5 percentage points lower than it is now.

“I think we could go into a series of rate cuts here, starting with a 50 basis-point rate cut in September,” Bessent said in a television interview on Bloomberg Surveillance Wednesday. “If you look at any model” it suggests that “we should probably be 150, 175 basis points lower.”

Chuck again… I don’t know what “model” he’s using, but it sure isn’t the one that I use, which tells me that you don’t cut rates when inflation is still a problem and most likely to become an even bigger problem…

Did you see the nominated head of the BLS? He wants to change the reporting on jobs from monthly to quarterly…  I just have one question for him on that, is that so the BLS has more time to cook the books?  he also went on to admit that the current jobs reports are a mess….   Well, when you tell a lie, you then have to repeat it often, and embelish it quite a bit too!  And the BLS has been a pack of lies for a very long time! And never before where their collective feet held to the fire, until now… But this guy isn’t going to ride in on a white horse, and make the jobs reports better… In fact since he’s one of the POTUS’s pals, the reports will probably be even larger lies!  I’m just saying…

And in a heart felt mea culpa… on Monday I reported in the currency roundup that the Swiss franc was 1.03 something… I even had a dear reader question the price, but I responded to him that I had taken it from the Bloomberg currency prices page, so it must be right…  Only to find the next day it was back to 1.24 something… So, Bloomberg must have had it wrong, and I swallowed it hook, line and sinker… Well, that won’t happen again! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday was barren, with just some Fed Heads speaking… Today’s Data Cupboard has the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims for a Thursday, and that’s about it for today. Tomorrow we’ll see the July Retail Sales print… The BHI indicates that it will be better than the average Bear… And then Capacity Utiliazation, and Industrial Production for July will also print tomorrow…

To recap… The dollar staged a mini-rally yesterday in the U.S. after getting sold overseas the previous night.  All this talk of rate cuts, is really underpinning Gold right now… And then you add In the fact that bond yields are dropping…  That too, helps Gold…  Well, it was a matter of when not if, we passed by $37 Trillion in debt… And our monthly budgets are faring too well either!  And finally, Scott Bessent calls for 150 Basis Points of rate cuts!

For What It’s Worth… I came across this article last night while perusing the internet. It’s about how the POTUS really came unglued when Lola, I mean Goldman Sachs had this to say about tariffs. And it can be found here: As Trump berates Goldman, economists agree higher tariff inflation coming

Or, here’s your snippet: “Goldman Sachs is taking the heat for its call that heavier tariff-induced consumer inflation is ahead, but it’s far from alone in that view among its Wall Street brethren.

Despite investors’ embrace of Tuesday’s fairly benign consumer price index report, economists expect that the biggest impact to inflation is yet to come.

With pre-tariff inventories rolling off, effective tariff rates climbing higher and companies less willing to absorb higher costs from the duties, the general feeling is that consumers are increasingly going to feel the bite through the rest of the year.

“Tariffs could subtract 1% from GDP and add 1-1.5% to inflation, some of which has already occurred,” Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase, said in a note. “There is considerable uncertainty around the degree of pass-through to consumer prices, given that this year’s tariff increases are well larger than anything in the post-war US experience.”

Chuck Again…  and THAT is the reason the FOMC has kept interest rates steady Eddie…   For they too know what the tariffs are going to do… 

Market Prices 8/14/2025: American Style: A$ .6525, kiwi .5949, C$ .7245, euro 1.1689, sterling 1.3579, Swiss $ 1.2417, European Style: rand 17.77, krone 10.1689, SEK 9.5630, forint 337.84, zloty 3.6432, koruna 20.9318, RUB 79.65, yen 146.64, sing 1.2517, HKD 7.8426, INR 87.55, China 7.1704, peso 18.68, BRL 5.3976, BBDXY 1,201, Dollar Index 97.82, Oil $62.93, 10-year 4.20%, Silver $38.18, Platinum $1,361.00, Palladium $1,156.00, Copper $4.54, and Gold… $3.355

That’s it for today… Well, the mighty Yankees come to town tomorrow night for a weekend series with my beloved Cardinals… Both teams have really struggled since we turned the calendar to July… I want to apologize for all the typos in yesterday’s Pfennig… I usually try to scan it over before sending it out, but not yesterday, and then when I did scan it, all the typos showed up like a credit card bill after a spending spree! Tomorrow is 8/15… That was the day each year that we began summer football practices… 2 practices a day… Sometimes we wouldn’t even go home between the practices, and would take naps on the bleachers! Ahhhh…. those were the days! The Moody Blues take us to the finish line today with a song from my favorite album Seventh Sojourn: Isn’t Life Strange… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals make a comeback
• The BOE cuts rates!

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, did you miss me? I missed writing, some days that is… I had a very relaxing and fun vacation with Adrew, Rachel, Braden and Evie… The Trade Deadline came and went, and my beloved Cardinals did nothing to improve their team this year, so it looks as though they’ve waved the white flag in 2025… UGH!  Sammy Hagar greets me this morning with his song: Turn Up The Music… it’s a live version so it has me geared up this morning… 

Well, while I was away, the dollar had a mini-rally, but as the days of my vacation grew near, the mini-rally began to fade… At first, the dollar rallied when it was believed that the tariffs the POTUS had announced for some countries would be replaced by new trade agreements… But soon, it was realized that new Trade Agreement or not, the tariffs were still in place, maybe not as high of tariffs, but still in place nonetheless… 

Gold & Silver saw another engineered takedown by the short paper traders, and both have slowly worked their way back in the highlight… 

The dollar ended the week last Friday, at 1,204…  that was after the BBDXY reached 1,221 on 7/28… So, as you can see the dollar’s mini-rally is fading quickly…   Gold ended the week last week at $3,396, and for a brief time on Friday last week it traded over $3,400… Silver ended the week at $33.96… 

It was discussed last week that the POTUS may place tariffs on Gold bars coming into the U.S.  The last time he said he would do that, it caused a HUGE transfer from London to New York, as dealers tried to get ahead of the tariffs… I think this is a case of fool me once… but not twice, as there has been no HUGE transfer taking place this time. 

Or… maybe these guys are all from Missouri and will have to be shown! I know, I know, that can’t be the case, I was just throwing it out there for fun! 

The price of Oil is seeing a lack of demand as the summer driving season comes to a close… And the price of Oil end the week trading with a $63 handle…  And as we draw closer the next FOMC meeting the calls for a rate cut will grow louder and louder, and that has the yields on bonds dropping with the 10-year Treasury’s yield ended the week at 4.27%

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar has been bought a bit as the BBDXY is up 2 index points to start our day/ week. And I guess I shouldn’t have talked to glowingly about Gold above and its comeback, because overnight and in the early trading Gold is down $41 to start the day/ week! I can’t find anything on the newswires to explain this sell off, so… we’ll have to put this down as yet another engineered takedown… I guess the powers that be didn’t like Gold flexing its muscles at $3,400…  Silve is also getting sold this morning and is down 58-cents to start our day/ week. 

I have been away for two weeks, and nothing’s changed with the problems of the U.S. in fact, they may be worse, in that the latest auction of Treasuries went sour, and the primaries had to step in and sup up the unsold bonds…  

Circling back to Gold… I think that that the tariffs applied to Gold bars, will do nothing but give the Gold bugs reason to take Gold higher, and so, I think that thought has crossed the short paper traders, and that’s why they’ve attacked Gold like they have this morning…  For what that’s worth, it’s just my Pfennig’s worth…

And it gives those among you and anyone else that has twiddled their thumbs and procrastinated long enough to buy Gold at a cheaper price today… A Bue Light special if you will… 

I came across this info while out… You will recall me telling you several times in the last couple of years that this is a deficit in Silver production…  But now… I have the numbers! Check this out:  The deficit in Silver production in 2024 was:  117 million ounces versus about 148 million ounces, in 2023. But if you add in the net investment into physical silver and then net investment into Silver ETFs, then you’re looking at the third highest silver deficit that we have on record.

In Ed Steer’s Saturday letter, he posted this info:  “The Silver short position is now down to a still ugly 22,841 contracts…from the 32,888 contracts short position they held in last Friday’s COT Report — and now even further below the obscene 76,723 contracts they were short back on February 14. – Ed Steer www.edsteergoldsilver.com 

So, if you take the fact that there is a HUGE deficit in Silver production and then add in the fact that the number of short contracts in silver are getting smaller, I think this all leads to a HUGE rally for Silver is coming…  I truly see Silver getting to $40 before we turn the calendar on this year, and from there, $50 will be its next stop… 

The Bank of England (BOE) cut rates by 25 Basis Points (1/4%) last week, citing a fall in inflation… Maybe the U.K. Gets real Bonafide true inflation numbers?  I would certainly hope that at least one country doesn’t have their hands in the cookie jar all the time! 

The currencies, as a whole, have begun to fight back and regain ground that was lost during the dollar’s goosing… 

And as to Gold… I received this from the good folks at GATA: “In the early hours of trading today, global markets were shaken by the announcement by the Trump administration of a 39% tariff on imported gold bars weighing 100 ounces or more. U.S. December gold futures reached an all-time high price of $3,534.10 per ounce shortly after the declaration was made.

This sudden move injected uncertainty into the bullion market, unsettling dealers, refiners, and institutional investors trading in larger “exchange delivery” formats. While gold is rarely targeted by protectionist measures — unlike base metals, agriculture, or manufactured goods — this decision warrants close attention, both for its immediate market impact and potential implications for future monetary policy.”

My friends at the FXSTREET posted an article that was quoting a Fed Head… Let’s listen in: “his summer, we’ve started seeing cracks in the U.S. economic armor, including a significant weakening in the jobs market that could signal tough times ahead for many American workers.

While low at 4.2%, the unemployment rate is threatening to break out to a new cycle high, and layoffs are up significantly from one year ago.

This dynamic could accelerate a growing divide in the U.S. economy, which Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack labels a “two-speed” economy.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack. lead.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack says there’s a “two-speed” economy.

The haves and have-nots in the U.S. economy

Hammack is the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s CEO, heading one of 12 regional Reserve Banks in the Fed’s Reserve System. She took over the role in August 2024.

The former cohead of global financing at Goldman Sachs and member of Goldman’s management committee was formerly the global head of short-term macro trading and repo trading, so she knows a thing or two about the markets and economy.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. lead.

Jobs report shocker resets Fed interest rate cut bets

Read More

Unfortunately, she sees a glaring and growing problem — an economy increasingly separating the haves from the have-nots.

In an interview with CBS News, Hammack said that means we’re in a “two-speed” economy, where the highest income earners are doing much better than everyone else.”

Chuck again… I know it was more like a FWIW article, but since the Pfennig will be hit-n-miss this week (I’ll explain in a bit) I thought I would load you up! 

And this will round out the letter today, as it is being reported that the Indian Central Bank has been selling dollars and buying rupees to help the rupee…  This is troubling news, in that this is not a coordinated intervention with several Central Banks partaking.  And why is that? Because as I’ve explained many times in the past, the markets have deeper pockets than any Central Bank, and if the markets want the rupee to be weak, it my get a brief reprieve from the intervention, but then it will return to the underlying weakness…  I’m just saying…

The U.S. Data Cupboard while I was gone, had the July Jobs Jamboree, which turned out to be very disappointing… The BLS said that 73,000 jobs were created in July… And that was after they had decided to add 257,000 jobs after the surveys were received… Which, if you used real math, and not the kind the Gov’t uses… it would mean that the economy lost 184,00 jobs in July… Another interesting piece of data while I was gone, was the ISM (manufacturing index), which fell from 48.7 to 48%, that’s going the wrong way folks…  And finally while I was away, the FOMC left the Fed Funds Rate unchanged, which really ticked off the POTUS… I’m just saying… 

And on top of that May and June’s jobs numbers were revised downward… Big Time!  And then to add frosting to the cake, the POTUS fired the head of the BLS… 

I came across this note from MarketWatch.com while gone, and copied it and saved it for today… “An increasing number of borrowers are falling behind on both their student-debt and mortgage payments — a development that’s worrying economists about the state of the housing sector and the broader U.S. economy.

Student-loan delinquencies are rising sharply, as are delinquencies on mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration, according to a new report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.”

Chuck again… Tapped out? Well, I guess we’ll get a better picture of that chance this coming Friday, when Retail Sales are printed… Not that Retail Sales are the “everything” when it comes to consumer’s disposable income, and IT IS A GOVERNMENT REPORT, we must aways keep those things in mind… 

To Recap… Chuck’s back, for a brief time that is this week… And during his absence the dollar rallied and then began to get sold again, Gold got sold and then began to come back, until this morning that is… The head of the BLS is gone… because he didn’t cook the books enough for the POTUS…  Treasuries are having a rough go of it at the auctions, and the BOE cut rates… 

For What It’s Worth… I read this email while on vacation and flagged it so I could come back to it for the FWIW article when I returned… This is how our value of the dollar has deteriorated through the years, and it can be found here: 2021 Meme Reveals the Relentless Devaluation of Your Money

Or, here’s your snippet: “I ran across a 2021 meme the other day that vividly illustrates just how quickly the government is destroying your money.

The meme points out that in 1964, the minimum wage was $1.25, or five quarters. That sounds really low, but keep in mind that before 1965, quarters were 90 percent silver. In 2021, the melt value of those five quarters was $23.34.

In other words, the five quarters a minimum wage worker earned in an hour in 1964 had $23.34 in purchasing power in 2021. There’s your “living wage.”

That’s pretty staggering in and of itself, but now fast forward a few years. As of today, the melt value of those five quarters is $34.45.

In other words, the value (purchasing power) of those five quarters has increased by another 47.6 percent in just three and a half years!

This reflects the relentless devaluation of U.S. money.

What Happened to Our Money?

Under the Coinage Act signed by President Lyndon B. Johnson in 1965, the U.S. Treasury removed all of the silver from dimes, quarters, and half-dollars. Instead, the government mints coins from “composites, with faces of the same alloy used in our 5-cent piece that is bonded to a core of pure copper.”

You will sometimes hear coins minted before 1965 referred to as “junk silver.”

In reality, we should call modern American coins junk.

Johnson promised that removing silver would have no impact on the value of U.S. coinage, asserting that “[The] Treasury has a lot of silver on hand, and it can be, and it will be used to keep the price of silver in line with its value in our present silver coin.”

You’ll be shocked to learn he was lying.

Richard Nixon told a similar fib when he severed the last tie between the U.S. dollar and gold. When he announced the closing of the gold window, Nixon said, “Let me lay to rest the bugaboo of what is called devaluation,” and promised, “Your dollar will be worth just as much as it is today.”

As we all know, that’s not what happened. The dollar buys a fraction of what it did in 1971, and U.S. quarters minted after 1965 are virtually worthless.

The meme tells the story. We don’t have a wage problem in the U.S.  We have a money problem. And it is rapidly getting worse.

This is why you don’t want to hold fiat currency for any amount of time. It is losing value minute by minute. You need real money – gold and silver.”

Chuck Again… Good article in my humble country boy opinion!  And I included the entire article for the snippet, because it was so good… 

Market Prices August 11, 2025: American Style: A$ .6511, kiwi .5931, C$ .7279, euro 1.1631, sterling 1.3431, Swiss $1.0361, European Style: rand 17.6333, krone 10.2397, SEK 9.6151, forint 340.25, zloty 3.4183, koruna 21.0534, RUB 79.66, yen 147.88, sing 1.2859, HKD 7.8499, INR 87.66, China 7.1841, peso 18.60, BRL 5.3246, BBDXY 1,206, Dollar Index 98.39, Oil $64.17, 10-year 4.27%, Silver $37.74, Platinum $1,313.00, Palladium $1,414.00, Copper $4.43, and Gold… $3,355

That’s it for today… So, did you miss me? Well, I missed writing to you! Our last weekend down here I got to see the full moon rise over the ocean, it’s such a beautiful event! Ok, this week, no Pfennig tomorrow, but then I’m back on Wednesday, but then no Pfennig on Thursday because it’s infusion day… Next week, back to normal…  While I was away, my darling granddaughter, Delaney Grace turned 18… She’s a senior in H.S. This year, and next year she’ll go away to college…  (Where have the years gone?)  When I left, I said that my beloved Cardinals were circling the bowl… But in the last week they’ve taken 2of 3 from both the Dodgers and Cubs… So, still circling but keeping their heads above water… The Cyrkle takes us to the finish line today with their song: Red Rubber Ball (The Cyrkle was the opining band for the Beatles!)  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself! 

• the dollar continued to get sold on Wednesday
• Trade deal with Japan weighs on Gold & Silver

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all!  Well, my beloved Cardinals are definitely circling the bowl now… They lost 2 of 3 to the Rockies! Time to back up the truck and load up the players that will be traded next week… The team comes home now to play the red-hot Padres… UGH!  Shame on the GM for assembling this team without pitching depth… It was a hot one yesterday, I tried to sit out to read, and only made it for 30 minutes… Outkast greets me this morning with Duane’s song: Hey Ya!

The dollar continued to get sold in the U.S. yesterday, with the BBDXY losing 4 index points to 1,192.. The euro really sprang upward and now looks like it wants to take out the 1.18 figure.  Bloomberg.com had an article yesterday that said that the dollar’s bottom isn’t in yet, as options are indicating a further decline.  You know the longer the Fed Heads delay the rate cut (now on the docket for Sept), the more chance that it will be case of sell the rumor (of a rate cut) and buy the fact… Which would mean the dollar would stop getting sold when the FOMC gets around to cutting rates.  I don’t see that happening, but I’m just putting it out there to think about…

The Fed Heads like to say that they do NOT like to surprise the markets… So, keeping that in mind, next week’s FOMC meeting will be a non-event… .I’m just saying…

Gold & Silver ran into the short paper traders and some profit taking yesterday… Gold lost $48 and fell back under the $3,400 figure, and Silver held onto the $39 handle after losing just 5-cents on the day. Gold closed at $3,387, and Silver closed at $39.30…  After yesterday’s engineered takedown of Gold, it was good to read a sane person’s viewpoint… Let’s go there right now!

And here’s some good advice from good friend, Rick Checkan of ASI: “Treasury yields and U.S. dollar dip while gold and silver rise. With favorable conditions continuing to set up for another precious metals rally in the second half of the year, investors would be wise to take advantage of current levels before they continue to rise. Especially now, as premiums are still at extreme lows since demand on the retail bullion market has yet to catch up.” – Rich Checkan

You can find Rich and his daily messages at www.assetstragegies.com

The price of Oil bumped higher yesterday and ended the day with a $65 handle… And the 10-year Treasury is range trading right now, and ended yesterday with a 4.38% yield.

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar gained some traction with the BBDXY gaining 3 index points… It seems that the markets / Wall Street, etal, are becoming more confident with every trade deal that gets done… Yesterday, it was a deal with Japan, thus curtailing the hefty tariffs they would have incurred if not negotiating a better deal. 

Gold is starting the day today down $21, and Silver is down 20-cents… I think the confidence the markets are getting from the trade deals being announced is weighing on Gold & Silver… What? Me Worry? (Alfred E. Neuman) After all the hoopla of signing trade deals ends, the other items fueling Gold & Silver previously… Yes, they are still there, so don’t worry, be happy (Marley) 

The price of Oil remained in the $65 handle last night, and the 10-year saw some selling again, with the yield rising to 4.80%… 

Well, I guess the POTUS had grown tired of dissing the Fed Chairman, and has sent his right-hand man, Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent to do the dirty work… Yesterday, Bessent was speaking and calling for an examination of the Fed / Cabal/ Cartel…  This from Reuters.com ” U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Federal Reserve’s vital independence on monetary policy is threatened by its “mandate creep” into non-policy areas and he called on the U.S. central bank to conduct an exhaustive review of those operations.

The Fed’s autonomy “is threatened by persistent mandate creep into areas beyond its core mission, provoking justifiable criticism that unnecessarily casts a cloud over the Fed’s valuable independence on monetary policy,” Bessent said in a post on X.”

It is my opinion that these two linchpins will get together and get the interest rate setting job back to the Treasury… And then the POTUS can direct his “yes-man” in the direction he wants… Which is a cheaper dollar, and lower interest rates…  And now Powell has another foe… Speaker Johnson said that ‘he’s become disenchanted  with Powell” Come one, come all to get in line to diss the Fed Chief!

Ok, I’ve got to go to something else this morning, this talk has got me riled up! 

Sneaking under the wire, the POTUS announced a 15% tariff / trade deal with Japan…  That’s huge folks… Now if he could just work his magic on China… 

And I could get all caught up in the Epstein stuff, but I won’t… All I’ll say is that this a battle of words, and most of them are lies (Pink Floyd)

Before I head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to share this old Irish Proverb with you.. “A Good Laugh and a long sleep are the two best cures for anything”   Think about that and incorporate it being… It’ll do you good! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the Existing Home Sales, and they fell from the previous month’s figure… Today’s Data Cupboard has the usual Thursday fare of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims…  With all the layoffs being reported around the country, I see this number rising… Tomorrow, while I’m packing for my trip, we’ll see the color of the latest Durable Goods Orders… You might recall me telling you last month when this data printed a blowout number, that it was all down with smoke and mirrors, and this month’s report should go back to being negative… 

To recap… The dollar continues to get sold, but Gold ran into the short paper traders and profit taking yesterday, UGH! No worries, just providing a cheaper price for buying… I’m just saying… Gold couldn’t hold the $3,400 figure, but it won’t take it long to revisit it… Again I’m just saying… Rich Checkan visits us in the Pfennig today… 

For What It’s Worth…  Well, since this is the last FWIW for the next two weeks, I thought it would be a good one, but then I always have good ones, right? HA! This article is about not only Central Banks are buying Gold but also Sovereign Wealth Funds and it can be found here: Move over, central banks: Sovereign wealth funds are also buying tonnes of gold | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “Gold is once again at the center of global financial strategy—not just for central banks, but for sovereign wealth funds looking to hedge risks and preserve value.

Krishan Gopaul, Senior Analyst for EMEA at the World Gold Council, reported in a social media post on Wednesday that the State Oil Fund of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) bought 16 Tonnes of gold during the second quarter.

“This lifts its total H1 net purchases to 35 Tonnes and total gold holdings to 181 Tonnes (almost 29% of its total portfolio),” he said.

According to its investment policy, the sovereign wealth fund has reached its maximum allowable position in the precious metal.

SOFAZ has been extremely active in the gold market, with its purchases outpacing most central bank activity so far this year.

Only Poland has bought more gold in the first half of the year than SOFAZ, increasing its official reserves by 67.2 Tonnes as of May.

While the People’s Bank of China has been actively buying gold for nine consecutive months, its purchases in the first half of the year totaled 16.9 Tonnes as of May.”

Chuck Again… well, all good things come to an end, right? When will this hoarding of Gold by the Central banks end? The rising price of Gold doesn’t seem to bother them too much, as they just keep buying! So, to answer my own question, I don’t think it will end in the near future… I’m just saying…

Market Prices 7/24/2025: American Style: A$.6611, kiwi .6044, C$ 7348, euro 1.1748, sterling 1.3540, Swiss $1.2584, European Style: rand 17.6107, krone 10.1046, SEK 9.4314, forint 338.57, zloty 3.6226, koruna 20.9053, RUB 79.37, yen 146.57, sing 1.2774, HKD 7.8499, INR 86.40, China 7.1586, peso 18.54, BRL 5.5201, BBDXY 1,194, Dollar Index 97.38, Oil $65.80, 10-year 4.80%, Silver $39.10, Platinum $ 1,411.00, Palladium $1,280, Copper $5.90, and Gold… $3,366

That’s it for today, and the next two weeks… I know, I know, I shouldn’t take such long vacations, but I AM RETIRED! So, go to the website: www.dailypfennig.com  and read some archives that should hold you over until I return! Lunch with my classmates today, Whoopee! And then we get into the dog days of Summer, which is August… I’m looking forward to spendng time with Son Andrew, and his family of Rachel, Braden and Evie, we always seem to have a good time… Speaking of Rachel… Astrud Gilberto and the great Stan Getz takes us to the finish line today with their great song: The Girl From Ipanema… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today and will remember to be Good To Yourself, for the next two week, as I won’t be here to remind you! 

Chuck Butler