- Currencies rally on Friday
- Oil climbs back over $100
Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! A very nice day on Thursday turned into rainy days Friday and Saturday… UGH! But, I did get caught up on my lost sleep over the weekend, so that was a good thing! … This is TAX Day week… I just filed my taxes… Always at the near to last moment for me! I don’t like taxes, and can imagine that no one does, except the taxman… Rain filled our day Friday, but the baseball game that night was able to get in, with my beloved Cardinals winning…. The Righteous Brothers greet me this morning with their song: You’ve Lost That Loving Feeling…
Sappy, yeah, I even like those kinds of songs… OK, well, the dollar got sold a bit on Friday, with the BBDXY ending the week at 1,198… On its way lower I feel, but it won’t be a ONE-WAY street… I know I didn’t need to remind you of that, but what the heck! The data on Friday didn’t give anyone a good feeling about the dollar, so there was that…
Gold & Silver had a day on Friday… As they tried to rally but was snuffed out by the SPTs… Gold us up until it wasn’t, and ended the day/ week at $4,747.20… Gold was down $18.50 on the day, but that was $46.20 away from where it was before the SPTs entered the market. That’s a $64 difference folks… And that ticks me off a bit, but what can I do about the SPTs?
Silver saw the same kind of movement on Friday but, actually ended the day/week up at $75.75… up $54-cents, but was 95-cents away from its high… Silver could have been up $1.49 on the day if it weren’t for the SPTs… I associate the SPTs to the hackers of this country… They sure would do us all a favor if they quit what they are doing and did some productive with their talents…. I’m just saying…
Well, the STUPID CPI showed that the annual inflation rate had risen to 3.3%… And that’s with their STUPID hedonic adjustments! So, real inflation is probably around 8%… And what did that report to do those bets on Fed/Cable/Cartel rate cut? I had read just last week that “the Fed’s rate cut was back on the table”… I had reacted to that headline, with: Really? They thought that the negative Durable Goods Orders would prompt the Fed Heads to cut rates in December…
Well, the price of Oil briefly went back over the $100 price on Friday, and remains very high… There is no end in my site for this war, and all those that think that the Peace Agreement between the U.S. and Iran is going to hold, are going to have to go back to the drawing board… The two sides couldn’t be more far apart right now… Sure, we could see some miraculous Peace Agreement that’s ironclad, but then pigs would have to learn how to fly… in my opinion…
And in the latest news, the Peace negotiations ended yesterday with no accord… The two sides couldn’t be farther apart on what they want…
So, what will the Fed Heads do? They’re going to have the White House all over them like white on rice to cut rates, but they just can’t… and need to hike them… Over the years, I’ve had many a reader write me and tell me that I should be the Fed Chairman… I’m so glad I’m not!
Well, if history is any indication, the Fed Heads will do the wrong thing for us and the economy… I’m just saying…
In the overnight markets last night… the dollar was getting bought bit time, when someone said, “What the heck are we doing?” and the dollar saw some profit taking bringing back to where it started the night with the BBDXY at 1,201…
Gold & Silver start the week down…. UGH! Gold is down $33 and Silver is down $1.75… I read a report that said that Wall Street’s feeling toward Gold & Silver has improved with the cease fire going on… Well, if that’s true, what’s up with the start of the week? I shake my head in disbelief that some things get printed, as if no one took the time to read it before sending out… I’m just saying…
The price of Oil climbed back over the $100 level overnight, starting the day/ week at $103… I guess Oil traders are buying what the Peace Agreement is selling…
And the bond boys are seeing the data prints and running for the hills, marking up the yields in the bonds… The 10-year starts today at 4.34%, and trust me on this… if the Fed Heads would keep their hands out of the cookie jar with their yield control, the 10-year’s yield would be much higher…
The dollar didn’t rally on the news of higher inflation last Friday, because… Everyone believes that this will be a one and done inflation rise, and soon that everything will be back to normal… I say, balderdash… higher prices never seem to come back down… But, let them believe what they want to believe, they’ll be sorry they traded accordingly in the future… Again, I’m just saying…
The currencies all look heathier this morning… The euro is over the 1.17 handle, and the Petrol Currencies of: Norway, Russia and Brazil are kicking tail and taking names later… With the price of Oil hovering around $100 these currencies are really into play right now… Even the Mexican peso and British pound sterling are getting looked at. No one is buying yet, just looking…
Well, did you see the U of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Report? the March U of M sentiment survey was completed before the start of the Iran War, and showed a drop to 47.7, a drop from 53.5… This is the lowest this data set has seen since 1980! And this was taken before the start of the War!
This report had some additional data that I found interesting: One-year expected business conditions plunged about 20% and is now 6% below last April. Assessments of personal finances declined by about 11%, with consumers expressing a substantial increase in concerns over high prices and weaker asset values. Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 3.8% in March to 4.8% this month, the largest one-month increase since April 2025… None of this gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling about where the economy is going… But, then what data print has done that lately?
The U.S. Data Cupboard had another piece of data on Friday, that will most likely cause more confusion at the Eccles Building… Factory Orders for Feb. Were not good, not awful, but not good, and New Orders were down as they have be 3 of the last 4 months…
There’s not a lot in the Data Cupboard this week, so we’ll just move along now…
To recap… the dollar got sold a bit on Friday, with the BBDXY ending the week at 1,198… Gold & Silver were on their way to a great day, when a funny (not funny, ha ha) thing happened on the way to greatness… the SPTs showed up and caused Gold & Silver headaches… Gold lost ground while Silver gained, but not as much as it would have without the SPTs… The data on Friday was awful… just plain awful, and Chuck is concerned about the direction of our economy…
For What It’s Worth… I saw this headline on Friday last week on Kitco.com and knew then it was FWIW worthy… This is about how foreclosures are rising and it can be found here: U.S. consumer stress rises as foreclosure activity spikes, LegalShield data shows | Kitco News
Or, here’s your snippet: “America continues to face a widening K-shaped economy, as equity markets remain relatively healthy but households are under increasing financial pressure. Now, new data points to a growing risk of foreclosure and bankruptcy in the months ahead.
According to LegalShield’s latest Consumer Stress Legal Index (CSLI), foreclosure-related legal requests surged sharply in the first quarter, rising 20.3% year-over-year and reaching their highest level since the onset of the pandemic.
The report said the spike reflects a shift from financial concern to concrete distress, as more households seek legal assistance to manage housing-related issues.
The broader index—which tracks more than 150,000 monthly legal consultations—remains elevated at 72.9, up 11.6% from a year ago, signaling persistent strain across multiple fronts of household finances.
In an interview with Kitco News, Matt Layton, senior vice president of Consumer Analytics for LegalShield, said the data gives little indication that conditions will improve in the near term.
“Nothing in our data is currently leading us to expect improvement going forward,” he said.
Layton said the surge in foreclosure activity appears to be driven in part by rising housing-related costs—particularly insurance. The report, quoting data from the Dallas Federal Reserve, said insurance premiums are up approximately 70% since 2019 and now account for 14% of the average monthly mortgage payment.”
Chuck again… And that mortgage payment is a non-negotiable expense… Another housing meltdown? Not yet… but when these housing expenses cause the homeowner to cut back on other expenses, there goes the economic growth…. I’m just saying…
Speaking of economic growth… Did you see that the revision for 4th QTR GDP, that printed last week, showed a rise in growth of just .50%… YIKES! That’s a rounding error away from negative growth, folks… And if it weren’t for Gov’t spending, it would be negative!
Market Prices 4/13/2026: American Style: A$ .7046, kiwi .5831, C$ .7227, euro 1.1698, sterling 1.3439, Swiss $1.2664, European Style: rand 16.5380, krone 9.4750, SEK 9.3030, forint 313.60, zloty 3.6337, koruna 20.8347, RUB 76.16, yen 159.73, sing 1.2756, HKD 7.8323, INR 93.37, China 6.8316, peso 17.3670, BRL 5.0055, BBDXY 1,201, Dollar Index 98.90, Oil $103.93, 10-year 4.34%, Silver $74.26, Platinum $2,034.00, Palladium $1,547.00, Copper $5.92, and Gold… $4,717
That’s it for the day… I was quite wordy today, giving my point of view on a lot of things… I hope I didn’t offend anyone! And if I did… I apologize… Sunday brought us a cloudy day, but at least it was a warmer day… My friend, Dennis Miller, sent me a note yesterday: I just had to share with everyone… “I’m not saying I’m old… But the oldies station isn’t playing my parent’s jams anymore… They’re playing mine! The Kinks takes us to the finish line today with their song: All Day and All of the Night… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler