- the dollar sees some selling
- copper is on the rally tracks
Good Day…. And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all… Well, my vacation was absolutely great! We had great weather, and the only thing making things bad was the play of our beloved Cardinals… The trip home was a pain because of Mother Nature. But we made it home, albeit late, especially for me! And the fact that my body lost an hour, caused me to sleep late this morning… Things sure have changed since my days on the trading desk, for back in the day when I would be away, the currencies rallied… Not this time! A very appropriate song for this morning, the Allman Bros. Greet me with their song : Whipping Post…
The dollar did lose some ground yesterday as the BBDXY lost 4 index points on the day and ended the day at 1,217… It’s been a real struggle for Gold /Silver while I was gone, but that had started before I left, and I remind you that the summer months historically are not good for the metals…
Gold ended the day yesterday at $4,037, and Silver at $57.79… Everyone is saying that $4,000 is the floor for Gold… But as the SPTs have shown us previously, they know no floor, and they’ll take it as lows as they can before running out of steam… Yes, there’s a point where shorting doesn’t make any sense for them and so when that time comes, they’ll become buyers, run the price back higher and get ready for another load of wash, rinse, and recycle….
Gold/Silver were down for part of the day yesterday, but after the FOMC left rates unchanged they began to start rallying… They had quite the reversal yesterday, so they had that going for them and in the early trading this morning they are both up again… For how long? Only the Shadow Knows….
After spending a week with my lovely granddaughter, Evie, I came down with a cold…. Great, a summer cold… UGH!
OK, the price of Oil tried to rebound a bit yesterday and ended the day with an $83 handle… And the 10-year, after reaching a 4.70% yield last week, settled down and ended yesterday with a 4.68% yield…
The Petrol Currencies have been all over the place recently, along with the price of Oil… Do you really honestly think that the price of Oil will stay around $83? The Iranians and the Houtis have shut off major routes for shipments of Oil… So, sooner or later supply shock will hit Oil traders like a slap in the face… I’m just saying…
In the overnight markets last night, the dollar was subjected to more selling… Not the kind of selling to write home about, but 2 index points on the BBBDXY were lost, so there’s that!
And the 10-year’s yield remained at 4.68% overnight, while the price of Oil also stayed in their old clothes and starts today with an $83 handle…
On a side note here…. The price of Copper is $6.44 this morning, and appears that the supply problems for Copper are mounting, but we’ve seen this before, only to have the snot kicked out of Copper… But something tells me that we won’t see that this time…
The Bank of England (BOE) left their rates unchanged at their meeting of the rate setters this morning… I really do think that the BOE gets their signal to hike or cut from whatever the FOMC decides… Not to ruffles any feathers, you know….
Oh, and in case you were spending some time under a rock yesterday, the FOMC left rates unchanged again and talked about how a rate hike before year end was probably on the docket… The Fed Heads acknowledge that inflation is higher than U.S. consumers like, but they decided to sit on their hands…. I do think that we should listen to Fed/Cabal/Cartel Chairman Warsh, we he indicates that a rate hike is coming…
There were 3 Fed Heads that voted for a rate hike… so they’re coming around and by the next time they meet in 6 weeks, they should be ready to hike…. I’m just saying…
The Dollar continues to benefit from the War in Iran and other places… And while it did lose some ground yesterday, that has not been the norm for the dollar… I can’t help but think that these folks buying dollars are going to rue the day they did that…
Oh, and we were supposed to see a stock market collapse yesterday! I read a very long report where the guy pointed out all the stuff that I’ve pointed out and relayed it back to stocks, and said that on July 29th the stock market would collapse… You know like in Rocktober 1987… But, once again the collapse didn’t happen and now I would like to read a report from this guy saying that he was wrong!
Yes, is the stock market overvalued? Yes, it is…. and that’s all I can say about that!
The euro is showing some life these days, as it trades above the 1.14 handle… Of course that’s chicken feed when compared where the euro used to trade during the last week dollar trend! Of course that was also before the PIIGS and all those other names for the countries of the Eurozone that realized that they had given away the store and needed to bailed out… I started calling them Club Med …. Portugal, Italy, Greece and others were brining the euro down…
The problems of Club Med haven’t just disappeared, the problems are still there, but they have been painted over at least for now…
I personally think that Germany should tell the rest of the Eurozone good bye… But then that’s just me…
The U.S. Data Cupboard today has quite a bit of data for us, starting with another revision to 2nd QTR GDP… Then Personal Income and Spending for June will print. Then the PCE (supposedly the Fed Heads’ favorite inflation calc) The funny and not funny ha=ha, thing is that the PCE will show that inflation dropped in June, but that’s not really true, as the price of Oil rebounded from its current lows in June… (I realize that it has fallen off again, but for how long?)
To recap… The dollar continued to show that it will remain stronger as long as the War with Iran continues, while Chuck was away, which normally brings about dollar weakness in his absence… but not this time! Oil is bouning around up and down… it goes up when the war is on, and down when the markets think there’s going to be peace…
For What It’s Worth… Well, I don’t mean to rub this in, but at lease someone else goes along with me that the STUPID CPI is worthless and that real inflation is hurting consumers badly, and the article can be found here: Inflation Pain Is Worse Than the CPI Indicates, But You Already Knew That!
Or, here’s your snippet: “In 1971, President Richard Nixon severed the dollar’s last connection with the gold standard, making it a purely free-floating fiat currency.
When he announced the closing of the gold window, Nixon said, “Let me lay to rest the bugaboo of what is called devaluation,” and promised, “Your dollar will be worth just as much as it is today.”
Well, Campbell’s begs to differ.
Since that fateful day, the U.S. government, supported by the Federal Reserve, has aggressively devalued the dollar by printing more and more of them. This would have been impossible with the monetary discipline imposed by a gold standard (which is exactly why Nixon did away with it).
According to the Consumer Price Index data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the dollar has lost around 88 percent of its value since Nixon’s fateful decision. Meanwhile, the dollar value of gold has gone from $35 an ounce to about $4,000.
Of course, salaries have gone up as well, but inflationary boosts to income always lag behind prices, meaning this inflationary pressure is decimating the middle class and creating significant socio-economic shifts.
The Current Inflation Picture Is Much Worse Than Advertised
If you go shopping, you’re keenly aware of price inflation. Since January 2021, prices are up between 23.6 percent and 27.1 percent, depending on which metric you choose to use.”
Chuck again… this article goes on to discuss how a can of Campbell’s soup was 10-cents for decades, until after Nixon removed the Gold backing and we all became Keynsians… (well not me, and probably not you, but that’s what Nixon claimed)
Market Prices 7/30/2026: American Style: A$ .6972, kiwi .5839, C$ .7118, euro 1.1472, sterling 1.3384, Swiss 1.2300, European Style: rand 16.5916, krone 9.5741, SEK 96027, forint 315.62, zloty 3.7555, koruna 21.0688, RUB 79.83, yen 162.89, Sing 1.2882, HKD 7.8439, INR 95.67, China 6.7563, peso 17.40, BRL 5.1185, BBDXY 1,215, Dollar Index 100.69, Oil $83.76, 10-year 4.68%, Silver $58.22, Platinum $1,628.00, Palladium $1,309.00, Copper $6.44, and Gold…. $4,078
That’s it for today… A nice win, (finally) for my beloved Cardinals over the Cubs last night… It did take 10 innings, but a win is a win, and the team hasn’t had much of that lately! So, one and done this week… sorry, but that’s how the cookie crumbles… Next week there will be no Pfennig on Tuesday as it’s my monthly shot of chemo and visit to the oncologist…. But then I don’t have another Dr appt on my calendar for the rest of the month! YAHOO! But that won’t last, as I’m always getting a doctor’s notice that they need to see me… UGH! The Cranberries take us to the finish line today with their great song: Linger (the singer for the band, Delores O’Riordan had a voice that melted me, but we lost her way to soon) I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler