- the dollar gets sold on Wednesday and overnight
- More on Debt in the U.S. today… sorry…
Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, my beloved Cardinals come home to finally open their season at home, after losing the last game on the West Coast 3-2… They had multiple chances to score a lot of runs, but that old “pitcher’s best friend”, the double play, put the kyboshes on those chances… It’s Opening Day in St. Louis today! And the schools should be closed, banks closed, and the post office closed! Sorry, restaurants and bars… You’ll be needed today! John Fogerty greets me this morning with his song: Centerfield… you know, put me in Coach, I’m ready to play, today… yeah that song…
How apropos was that song on the Opening Day! You never know what’s coming next when the iPod is on shuffle!
Well, as we started the day yesterday, the dollar had seen some overnight selling, and the BBDXY was down 1-index point… From there it was more selling of the dollar and the BBDXY closed the day, down 4 index points total. The euro traded through the 1.07 handle and ended the day well into the 1.08 handle.., with the rest of the currencies all looking a bit healthier, except that Japanese yen, where yen traders can’t find a bid on the currency these days, and that, my friends, really shocks me… But, like I said previously in retrospect, maybe investors are looking at Japan’s other problems like debt and demographics, and deciding that the Bank of Japan will have to hike rates more to get them interested in yen…
Gold had another good day yesterday, and closed the U.S. session at $2,300.70! WOWZA! Silver also chimed in with another strong day and closed the U.S. session at $27.12… I had said yesterday morning that it appeared that Gold was just seeing some profit taking, and that negative could be turned around very easily… And it was turned around very easily!
Yesterday’s rally in the metals came after the chief Fed Head, Jerome Powell said that the markets should look for lower borrowing costs this year… That’s Fed speck for “Rates are going to get cut”…
The price of Oil remained in the $85 handle yesterday, and the 10-year remained trading with a 4.37% yield… So, no Big changes there…
In the overnight markets last night… The overbought positions in Gold & Silver were taken to the woodshed, so, profit taking, tech selling etc. has Gold down $13, and Silver down 9-cents to start the day today… The dollar got sold a bit more overnight and the BBDXY is down 1 index point this morning. The Euro wannabes, the forint, zloty and koruna are starting to really get some steam behind them, and longtime readers know what I think when that happens…
The thing we have to worry about is the PPT and their ESF… Will they step out in front of a speeding bus? They have before, and came out without a scratch… C’Mon boys and girls in the PPT, let the markets go on without interference for once in a blue moon! You can do it, I know you can!
I’m plum worn out, folks… not sleeping well, and coughing my fool head off when I’m awake… So, this is going to be short-n-sweet today, please excuse my weakness…
Yesterday, I spent a bit of time talking about the debt in the U.S. (ahem, Chuck, do you call all that you wrote about debt yesterday “a bit”? ) Ok, I get it, I got carried away with it… But not to worry, I’ve got more on the debt today! I found this on semafor.com “U.S. government borrowing has hit “unprecedented” levels that could trigger a damaging market reaction if left unchecked, the head of Congress’ independent fiscal watchdog warned in an interview with the Financial Times.
Federal debt relative to gross domestic product is likely to rise above World War II levels — when it stood at 116% of GDP — by 2029, Phillip Swagel, director of the Congressional Budget Office cautioned.
Ignoring the debt issue runs the risk of a market shock similar to the 2022 selloff in the U.K., when plans for sweeping tax cuts led to a run on the pound and forced then-Prime Minister Liz Truss to resign, he said.”
Chuck again… Yes, but if you’ve read anything I written about the debt for the last 32 years, you already know all that… But for new readers… here you go!
And then we even have Yahoo Finance chiming in: “With uncertainty about so many of the variables, Bloomberg Economics has run a million simulations to assess the fragility of the debt outlook. In 88% of the simulations, the results show the debt-to-GDP ratio is on an unsustainable path — defined as an increase over the next decade.”
Aye, aye, aye… me-oh-my… I can’t believe that for all these years, of me talking about the U.S. debt problem, that now, suddenly it’s on everyone’s mind? Welcome to show, I’m so glad you could attend! (ELP) Now, if only we could get the lawmakers to sit up and take notice, and say “no mas”!
The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the ADP Employment Report and they showed that job gains in the month of March were stronger than expected. That data also played a bit part in the selling of dollars yesterday… In addition to that, we also had ATL Fed President, Bostic, say that he preferred that any rate cut come in the 4th QTR…
If I were still a trader, I would take the point of view that , by the time the 4th QTR gets here we may be taking on different problems and a rate cut might not ever materialize!
Today’s Data Cupboard has the Weekly Initial Job Claims that has recently held pretty steady around 220,000…
To recap… The dollar selling yesterday, brought about a HUGE rally in Gold, Silver, the euro… We’ll have to see if there’s any follow through today , here in the U.S. Because last night there was . The CBO gave some dire forecasts for Debt in the U.S. and Chuck wants to know… Got Gold?
For What It’s Worth… This is an article about what the BRICS have planned, and it won’t be good for the dollar when they do implement their plan, and it can be found here: BRICS’ new step to end US dollar dominance (presstv.ir)
Or, here’s your snippet: “The BRICS bloc of emerging economies is considering developing an independent payment system based on digital currencies and blockchain to reduce reliance on western financial systems.
Announcing the plan last month, Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov said creating an independent BRICS payment system is an important goal for the future, which would be based on state-of-the-art tools such as digital technologies and blockchain.
“The main thing is to make sure it is convenient for governments, common people, and businesses, as well as cost-effective and free of politics,” Ushakov told state news outlet TASS.
A coalition initially made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, BRICS expanded for the first time since 2010 to include Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia, and the UAE at the start of the year, with 44 other nations having reportedly expressed interest in joining the bloc.
Last year, BRICS nations stepped up trade in local currencies to strengthen their economies and counter the greenback.
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Mahdi Safari has said creating a unified currency in the BRICS group could be very effective.”
Chuck again… Long ago, and far away, in a galaxy in another time dimension… I wrote a piece for the folks at Agora titled: Is It Time For the Pan?… I was given the task of coming up with a new currency union, since the euro had been such a success… And I came up with the Asian currencies joining up to form what I called the “pan”… But now it appears the BRICS will have the next currency union instead…
Market Prices 4/4/2024: American Style: A$ .6598, kiwi .6029, C$ .7406, euro 1.0852, sterling 1.2652, Swiss $1.1022, European Style: rand 18.6825, krone 10.6981, SEK 10.6063, forint 360.90, zloty 3.9566, koruna 23.3268, RUB 92.15, yen 151.76, sing 1.3477, HKD 7.8287, INR 83.44, China 7.2332, peso 16.55, BRL 5.0349, BBDXY 1,241.62, Dollar Index 104.14, Oil $85.26, 10-year 4.37%, Silver $27.03, Platinum $944.00, Palladium $1,038.00, Copper $4.23, and Gold… $2,287.90
That’s it for today… You can’t beat the St. Louis Cardinals Home Opener for all the glitz, glamor, pomp, stars, and the majestic Clydesdales! It all begins at 2:30 PM CST today, so don’t call me, or send me an email that you expect an answer from until the game is over! Seriously, folks! I’ll be glued to the TV! Well, lent is over, and I can eat meat again on Fridays… YAHOO! While being in S. Florida finding good fish to eat is not a problem… OK… time to go back to sleep… Aliottta Haynes, and Jeremiah take us to the finish line today with their song: Lakeshore Drive… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today without me participating, and please oh please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler