- the dollar suffers a down week, last week…
- China claims the world needs a stable renminbi!
Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! I sure hope you all had the opportunity to have a long 3-day weekend, with the President’s Day holiday occurring yesterday. It was a beautiful weekend, weather-wise down here in S. Floriday… Another Polar Vortex is delivering a ton of cold weather with snow up north. My beloved Cardinals are working out with full squads now, and my first game (home game) is this coming Sunday. Robert Palmer greets me this morning with his song: Sneaking Sally Through The alley…
Well, it wasn’t a good week, last week, for the dollar… The BBDXY started the week at 1,300 ended the week at 1,287…With a major part of the downward move coming last Friday, after the Jan Retail Sales printed a very large negative number of -.9%… Those that hang on every data print to prove that the Fed Heads will cut rates at their next meeting, which happens to be on the docket for March 18-19… Yes, one of those two-day meetings so that the Fed Heads can get all their ducks in a row. The euro touched the 1.05 figure briefly on Thursday, but that visit was short-lived, and the euro finished the week at 1.0485… Not a bad showing for a currency that’s supposed to be making the death walk to parity… Wouldn’t it be great to see the euro go on a resurrection walk instead? ‘
Gold ended the week on a sour note, as the short paper traders decided to bring Gold down a notch or two.. Gold was sold down the river by $45 on Friday to end the week at $2,883… Silver was down 14-cents to end the week at $32.23…
Yesterday was a holiday of sorts but, Gold & Silver still traded, and Gold gained $5 to end the day at $2,888… And Silver gained 23-cents to end the day at $32.46. The price of Oil ended the day yesterday trading with a $71 handle, with the bond market closed the 10-year Treasury’s yield was 4.51%… Last week the 10-year’s yield saw a major downward move, that had to be brought about by Large sums of bonds being purchased, with large sums of money… And my only guess as to whom that could be: The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel in the bond market, thus keeping a lid on yields once again…
You see if bond yields kept rising, if would make them quite attractive to U.S. investors, who would most likely switch some stocks for bonds… And the Gov’t can’t have the stock market circling the bowl…. That would mean the economy isn’t doing too well… I’m just saying…
In the overnight markets last night… The dollar kind of tried to rally, but in the end, it garnered a gain of just 1 index point in the BBDXY… The euro remains below 1.05, but prepared to pounce on the figure should the dollar get sold today. The dollar faces some major hurdles in the coming day/ weeks… So, make sure you are diversified in your investment portfolio for times like that are coming… Gold has shrugged off Friday’s negative price action, and has rallied overnight by $26, and Silver has gained 25-cents. I was explaining this scenario to someone out on the deck last week, and explained that Gold is in a bullish trend, and therefore every time the short paper traders take a run at the metal, it gets through it and returns to its prevailing underlying trend. Today’s price action, so far, is a perfect example of what I was talking about…
The price of Oil remained trading with a $71 handle overnight. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond didn’t budge overnight and starts today trading with a 4.51% yield.
Well, China seems to have a strong affection for their currency, the renminbi, or yuan for the members of media that can’t pronounce or spell renminbi… China announced yesterday that a Stable Yuan is Key to World Economy Hit by Strong Dollar… Well, they are correct that the dollar got to be so overbought that it was ridiculous. And that it wasn’t doing the world economy too much good at those strong levels… But to say the world needs a stable renminbi is stretching the truth, now, isn’t it? If so, then stop talking about devaluing the currency to offset Trump’s tariffs!
You know me, and if there’s a different story out there than the one everyone is repeating, then that’s the one I’m pinning my colors to that mast…. Here goes, as this is something I’ve been juggling around in my head for a couple of weeks now… OK, everyone and their brother, are repeating the line that the LBMA is short physical Gold because they want to avoid the rumored tariffs that the POTUS is rumored to be putting on Gold & Silver… That comes to the U.S. and that idea swam a few laps with me, but then I read that DOGE head Musk wants to audit the Gold at Fort Knox… And not just the numbers of bars, but what’s behind them. Are they leased out already? Are they held for future swaps? if so, the U.S. has no claim on the bar that’s in the vault. So, the U.S. HAS to get the books cooked just right to show all this physical Gold in the vault… And that’s the reason for this all to be happening…
What do you think of my different story? I personally like it and that’s the story I’m sticking to! Because for years when Ron Paul was in the senate, he would call for an audit of Ft Knox because he knew that these leases were shipping Gold out the door, in hopes that it comes back… But what if the country that we leased the Gold to collapses and they have to sell all their Gold to pay off debt, then the U.S. comes knocking on the door and says, the lease if now up, we want our Gold back… But there’s no Gold there to give them…. And then this scenario begins to multiply, and soon the U.S. is left holding the bag, and even if the U.S. decided to revalue Gold, it would be a paper transaction only, so go to your debtors and hand them your inventory sheet, and watch them laugh at your all the way down the street!
Oh, and guess who’s going to help Elon Musk with his audit of Ft. Knox? None other than Ron Paul! You know, it’s shameful that we as a country have dismissed candidates through the years because of their thinking outside of the box… Remember Ross Perot? And Ron Paul? Just to name a couple…
The U.S. Data Cupboard today is empty, with just 4 Fed Heads speaking… I think the markets are still reeling from the disastrous Retail Sales print last week… Not the rate cut bugs… But everyone else…In fact, there’s very little in the economic print pipeline for us to look forward to this week…
To recap… The dollar lost some ground last week and Chuck thinks there will be more ground to lose going forward, as long as the PPT keeps their dirty decrepit fingers out of the cookie jar… Gold went up early in the week and back down later in the week… And Chuck gives us his latest greatest idea regarding the rumored audit to be held at Ft. Knox…
For What It’s Worth… This article came to from the good folks at GATA, so there will be no link on GATA to read it all, but not to worry, I also found it on the FT, and It’s about Gold, of course, and how it’s become the “Trump Trade” And you can find it here: Soaring gold becomes top ‘Trump trade’
Or, here’s your snippet: “Gold has become the best performing “Trump trade” in recent weeks, outperforming other major asset classes since the U.S. president’s inauguration, as fears of a trade war and a potential hit to global growth fuel demand for the haven metal.
Bullion has risen in price every week this year as Trump starts to impose sweeping tariffs, and hit a new record of $2,942.70 per troy ounce this week. It has surged almost 7% since before the January 20 inauguration despite slipping on Friday.
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In contrast, Wall Street’s S&P 500 stocks index has risen less than 2 per cent, while other popular Trump trades such as bets on a stronger dollar, higher Treasury yields or bitcoin have backfired.
“When trade contracts, gold takes off,” said James Steel, precious metals analyst at HSBC, pointing to previous examples during the Covid-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis.
“The more tariffs that go on, the more this is going to disrupt world trade, and the better it will be for gold,” he added.
The bullion rally has been supercharged by a growing stockpile in New York, which has increased 116 per cent since the election, as traders and banks rush to move gold out of London, the biggest physical trading hub, and into the US. That has created a weeks-long queue to withdraw gold from the Bank of England vaults.
Trump’s latest tariff salvo includes a plan to introduce “reciprocal” tariffs on US trading partners, including both allies and adversaries. He has also imposed additional 10 per cent tariffs on goods from China.
Analysts say a global trade war will depress economic growth and fuel inflation — factors that typically benefit bullion.”
Chuck again…. Well, we’ve talked about most of that stuff previously, here… But it’s always to get a second opinion….
Market Prices 2/18/2025: American Style: A$.6351, kiwi .5703, C$ .7041, euro 1.0485, sterling 1.2591, Swiss $1.1088, European Style: rand 18.4342, krone 11.1628, SEK 10.7236, forint 384.10, zloty 3.9441, koruna 24.0081, RUB 91.56, yen 151.80, sing 1.3430, HKD 7.7758, INR 86.90, China 7.2800, peso 20.26, BRL 5.7113, BBDXY 1,289, Dollar Index 106.73, Oil $71.23, 10-year 4.51%, Silver $32.48, Platinum $965.00, Palladium $978.00, Copper $4.63, and Gold… $2,914.42
That’s it for today… Ok, everyone sync up your calendars… I’m here the rest of the week, try the veal… And make sure you tip the waitresses… Next week get cut short, as I will be heading back to St. Louis for my 4th infusion… You know, I aways begin to feel a little better the further from the previous infusion… And then afterward, all the fun starts anew… But this time when I return to S. Florida, I’ll be on my annual spring vacation that I mentioned to y’all about 2 weeks ago… I’m starting to get excited about the first spring training game coming up this Sunday, I’m like a kid at Christmas, marking off the days! I always get nostalgic, and misty eyed, the first time I climb the last step at Roger Dean, and see the Green grass, the perfectly manicured dirt infield, and the thought goes through my head that I’m so lucky to still be alive and to get to watch baseball… My nomination for best rock guitarist, Alvin Lee, takes us to the finish line today with a live version of his song: Goin’ Home… Have you ever seen the footage of him playing at Woodstock? Stunning! Ok , I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and will continue to Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler