- Currencies and metals get sold on Tuesday
- China’s GDP surprises!
Good Day.. And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! That was an interesting All-Star Game last night, with the St. Louis Cardinals representative, Brendan Donovan, getting two hits in his three plate appearances. The Game ended with a tie after 9 innings, and then a stupid swing off took place, and the National League won… That’s not the way to end a game in my book, same with soccer and hockey that do that… The early part of yesterday was warm and sunny, and then the rain moved in… I did get outside for a short time yesterday, but for some unknown reason the sun kind of got to me, and I needed to go inside and drink some cold water! The Marshall Tucker Bank greets me this morning with their song: 24 Hours At A Time…
Well, the STUPID CPI got the dollar bugs are excited yesterday, when even the STUPID CPI showed an increase in inflation in June… That pretty much was the last nail in the rate cut’s coffin for later this month, and then maybe even into Sept at the FOMC’s next meeting after the July Jamboree… And that thought got the dollar bugs all excited and they bought dollars left and right… The BBDXY gained 5 index points, and that made 11 index points that the BBDXY had gained in the last two days…
Gold got the snot knocked out of it again when it looked like rates wont’ be going anywhere soon… Inflation rising should have helped Gold to weather the gold bugs’ storm, but noooo… The Short Gold Paper Traders saw to that! Gold ended the day down $20 at $3,324… Silver was also taken to the woodshed by the SPT group, and once again, they’re hoping that potential buyer shy away from buying, and that long in the tooth holders would give up and sell… And maybe here in the U.S. that works, but it doesn’t work overseas, and all they do there is provide a cheaper buying opportunity… I’m just saying…
The euro led the currencies back to the sick room and to their respective sick beds… Back to the drawing board for me… This is getting really old, and I’m very tired of it!
The Price of Oil remained trading with a $66 handle yesterday and the 10-year Treasury bond picked up a few basis points to end the day with a 4.48% yield.
In the overnight markets last night… The overseas markets didn’t buy dollars last night, and I see them saying, “Whoa Partner, we’ve gone just a little too far, too fast” with the dollar rally… The BBDXY starts today at 1,207, the same figure it ended the day yesterday… Inflation rising is something that will incur higher interest rates but the damage to real interest rates will return, and that’s what foreign investors look to find real returns… So, we have that working in our favor, NOT!
Gold is up to start our day today, $20 and it will add to that today, unless the Short Gold Paper Traders return with gusto today… I imagine that the STP’s will return at some point just to keep Gold’s price from taking off to higher ground! Silver is also up to start our day today, 41-cents and has risen past the $38 handle again.. The same for the STPs holds true for Silver today…
The price of Oil slipped again last night and starts our day today trading with a $65 handle. And the 10-year Treasury bond is trading this morning with a 4.48% yield… I can’t imagine that the 10-year’s yield will remain below 4.50% too much longer, with inflation rising again…. I’m just saying…
I read a report this morning that talked about how the foreign Central Banks around the world have taken to a new form of obtaining physical Gold for their reserves… They’re buying it directly from the mining companies in their own back yards! This is a cheaper way for the Central Banks to obtain physical Gold, cheaper… And with the price of Gold so high, this makes abundant sense… So, the Central Bank accumulation of physical Gold continues, it’s just being done in a different way for some Central Banks…
Well, things in China aren’t as dire as some would have you believe… China’s GDP grew 5.2% in the April-June quarter from a year earlier, slowing from 5.4% in the first quarter, in a show of resilience against US tariffs. And China posted a record $586 billion trade surplus in the first half of 2025, defying expectations as factories appeared to ride out President Donald Trump’s tariff threats. June exports rose 5.8% year-over-year, well above forecasts, as Chinese companies shifted sales to markets outside the U.S. – Reuters
Let’s see now… China posted a $586 Billion Trade Surplus, mostly selling to other countries than the U.S. Hmmm… sounds like a good business plan to me!
And I found this on Bloomberg.com this morning… “US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell should step down from the central bank’s board when his term as chair is up in May 2026.
“Traditionally, the Fed chair also steps down as a governor,” Bessent said in an interview with Bloomberg Television Tuesday. “There’s been a lot of talk of a shadow Fed chair causing confusion in advance of his or her nomination. And I can tell you, I think it’d be very confusing for the market for a former Fed chair to stay on also.”
Chuck Again… The most recent inflation report, even the STUPID CPI showed inflation rising again, can you imagine what inflation would really be doing if the Treasury Sec. And POTUS got their 3% rate cut? And with inflation rising again, I would think their calls for rate cuts would be on the back burner… But, once you come out with a call, you have to defend it to the end, that that’s what phase the Gov’t’s stance is in now…
Before we head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to point out that inflation hits everyone and everything… Including tickets to a ballgame… check this out: The average sold price of Monday night’s Home Run Derby is $1,041 and $1,183 for last night’s All-Star Game.
The next-highest prices for those two events were $604 and $754 in 2023, when the midsummer classic took place in Seattle.
Chuck again… Now, that’s what I would call a HUGE price increase in two years!
The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday showed that the STUPID CPI had gained in June… The June increase in consumer inflation was .3%, and annualized it also rose to 2.7% in June after a printing at 2.4% in May… I told you yesterday that I thought the report would show an increase, and it did… But once again, this report is in no way an indication of what you, me and the guy down the street, are experiencing in inflation.
Today’s Data Cupboard has the PPI (wholesale inflation) for June and then we’ll see the color of June Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization… Both of these were disappointing in last month’s report, and I don’t see any change this month…
To recap… The dollar is on a rampage after the STUPID CPI showed that inflation had increased the most for a month, in a few months, thus putting the markets’ call for a rate cut on the back burner… This report was also responsible along with the short paper traders for the loss in Gold & Silver yesterday… The All-Star Game tickets show how badly inflation is…
For What It’s Worth… You know my position on ETF’s… I do not like them Sam, I do not like them with ham, I do not like them, Sam! But they do show something that helps one with how much physical Silver is held… And the volume is flying off the shelves with Silver, and that article can be found here:
Or, here’s you snippet: “Through the first half of 2025, inflows of silver into ETFs eclipsed the total for the entirety of 2024, reflecting a surge of silver investment demand.
The average annual price of silver rose 25 percent in H1. That was comparable to the 26 percent gain charted by gold.
Through the first six months of the year, 95 million ounces of silver flowed into ETFs globally. That pushed total fund holdings to 1.13 billion ounces, according to data compiled by the Silver Institute. That’s about 7 percent below the all-time high of 1.2 billion ounces hit in February 2021.
With the rising price of silver, the value of ETF holdings hit a series of all-time highs in June, exceeding $40 billion for the first time.
ETF inflows were relatively constant through the first five months of the year, and then surged in June, with more than half the gains coming in the final month of H1. It was the most significant monthly increase since the Reddit silver squeeze in early 2021.
It’s important to consider the impact of this ETF on a market that is already operating at a supply deficit. Silver demand outstripped new supply for the fourth straight year in 2024 as industrial demand set another record.
A supply deficit means the surging industrial demand must pull from the existing above-ground supply. With investment demand increasing, the two sectors will have to bid against each other, potentially driving the price higher.”
Chuck again… not really… this is the end of that same article: “But while a silver ETF is a convenient way to play the price of silver on the market, you don’t actually possess any metal. You have paper. And you don’t know for sure that the fund has all the silver either, especially when the fund sees inflows. In such a scenario, there have sometimes been difficulties or delays in obtaining physical metal.”
Market Prices 7/16/2025: American Style: A$.6520, kiwi .5984, C$ 7289, euro 1.1610, sterling 1.3399, Swiss $1.2457, European Style: rand 17.9258, krone 10.3025, SEK 9.7583, forint 344.44, zloty 3.6684, koruna 21.2290, RUB 78.16, yen 148.69, sing 1.2850, HKD 7.85, INR 85.94, China 7.1806, peso 18.80, BRL 55569, BBDXY 1,207, Dollar Index 98.58, Oil $65.93, 10-year 4.48%, Silver $38.01, Platinum $1,393.00, Palladium $1,221.00, Copper $5.52, and Gold… $3.339
That’s it for today and this week, as I’ll be at the hospital tomorrow for my monthly infusion… I think I’ve told you this before, but and if I have, forgive me for repeating, but the infusion room is one of the dreariest places on earth… I always want to get in and get out as fast as I can… Well, no baseball tonight, so I’ll have to watch something in place of baseball. UGH! Darling daughter, Dawn comes over each day and gives swimming lessons to the little ones, and I love to sit outside and watch the little ones learn how to swim, and how their eyes light up when they realize they’re swimming on their own! Deep Purple takes us to the finish line today with their 70’s song: Hush… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please, oh please, remember to Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler