March 17, 2021
* Economic Data is awful, but dollar rallies…
* Are you wearin’ the Green?
Top ‘O The Mornin’ to you lads and lasses! It’s St. Patrick’s Day! Are you wearin’ the Green? I looked in my closet here yesterday to see what I had to wear that was green… I have a shirt that’s a tealy shade of green, and then I have an old EverBank logo shirt that is Kelly green… It’s looks like I’ll be sportin’ the Kelly green shirt today, even though I think I could swim in the shirt, as I’m much smaller now than I was when I used to wear it at shows… We’ll be going to dinner tonight at our traditional St. Pats’ Day restaurant, and have some corned beef and cabbage… I have my phone on Sirius XM’s St. Pat’s Day Radio this morning, and they’re playing Dunkin’ Lullabies, by Flogging Molly… Ok, not your traditional rock and roll this morning, but, when in Rome…
What on earth happened yesterday? The U.S. Data Cupboard was absolutely awful, and the dollar rallied? Give me a break! Retail Sales were down 3.0%… Industrial Production was down 2.2%, and Capacity Utilization fell to 73.8%… Now what in those figures told traders to buy dollars? I’m beside myself with this development this morning! I’m also at a loss for words, which longtime readers will attest is not a common thing for me!
The Dollar Index rose from 91.75 in the morning to 91.88 on the day… Does that make any sense to you, dear reader? Oh sure, those that believe money grows on trees will tell Congress that the stimmy checks were needed, but come on… That shouldn’t mean a hill of beans to currency traders… Gold & Silver also got caught up in the dollar buying, as Gold gave back its early gains of $3.40, and ended the day losing 30-cents.. And Silver never got its feet on the ground to run, and fell 34-cents on the day…
Last night when This Is Us came on, I decided to check the markets and see what was up, and couldn’t believe my eye, when I saw the buying of the dollar goin on … The Cartel is meeting today, and will not be able to get all the board games out, because it’s just a one day meeting, that will have the Cartel’s decision in an announcement after the meeting this afternoon… Shoot by then I should be well on my way to an ice cold green beverage! And my annual spring vacation will have begun right after I hit send this morning, and I won’t give two hoots about what Cartel Chairman Powell has to say, because it’s all lies… Haven’t you heard it’s a battle of words, and most of them are lies? (Pink Floyd)
No baseball for me yesterday, no hockey last night, and that led to a night of going to get the car washed, which took 45 minutes, and I was not a happy camper once I made it to the car wash garage… I just finished another book which puts me at 8 books that I’ve read since arriving down here 2.5 months ago… In a month from now, I’ll be back home and going to multiple doctor offices… So, I’ll enjoy my remaining time down here where it’s warm, and full of sunshine most days…
In the overnight markets… There was more dollar buying and the Dollar Index is trading at 91.91 this morning.. Not a huge jump, but, it does represent more dollar buying. The euro dipped below 1.19 this morning, and is going back and forth around the figure. Gold is down $3.10, and Silver is down 4-cents in the early trading…
I got to thinking this morning, after writing what I have already written and came to the conclusion that traders and investors aren’t that stupid to think it wise to buy dollars when the economy is going to hell in a handbasket… A study on where people will spend their stimmy check, and it was estimated that $300 Billion will go to the stock market… All these choices are strange to me… I guess I’m just too old school, to deal with all these moronic decisions… I’m just saying…
It’s really beginning to be a drag… waking up each morning and seeing awful economic data, and then watching the dollar climb… The markets are not functioning the way they have always functioned before… Good is bad, and bad is good… Fundamentals don’t count… The Deficit doesn’t count or mean anything any longer, other than numbers… Do you remember the last time we talked about a Debt Ceiling? I can’t, because it’s just not done any longer… You know, I’m really beginning to believe that the markets have swallowed this magic money tree stuff, hook, line and sinker… Why would they get upset that the Gov’t is printing more currency? Why would they get upset that the Fed is promoting runaway inflation? Why, why, why? See what I deal with every day?
But today is a happy day! I’m Irish, so kiss me! I never had a green dress shirt, so for years, going to work in a suit and tie, I usually wore plain white shirts, for they go with everything! On St. Pats’ Day, I would wear a dark blue shirt, and tell people that I was wearing Notre Dame Green… If you follow Notre Dame sports, you’ll get that one…
I was minding my own business when along came publishing guru, and NY Times best selling author, Bill Bonner, with something for us to think about today… “We need to remember,” says Joe Biden, “that the government isn’t some foreign force in a distant capital. No, it’s all of us. All of us.”
We don’t recall ever making any decision for the government… nor ever having the slightest influence over any decision the government ever made. Nobody ever asked our opinion, and our vote was inconsequential. Apparently, “all of us” does not include us.
Instead, decisions are made by others – lobbyists, legislative aides, bureaucrats, hacks, and cronies. They are the ones, for example, who wrote the latest 600-page American Rescue Plan.
How could you expect them to neglect rescuing themselves?” -Bill Bonner, @rogueeconomics,com
I say that same thing with they send out the surveys for Consumer Confidence… They never ask me! Nor did they ask me if I thought it would wise to keep deficit spending… Sort of like years ago, at a bank I was called into a meeting of Bank leaders and was told they were thinking of hiring a consultant, and asked me my opinion… I told them that hiring a consultant is like giving him your watch so he can tell you what time it is… Did they listen to me? No… they hired the consultant and a couple of million dollars later, we saw the results… UGH!
The U.S. Data Cupboard doesn’t have much in the way of market moving economic data today, just a couple of housing reports… But later in the day we will see what the Cartel has to say about the economy… But remember it’s all lies… Tomorrow’s Data Cupboard will have the usual fare of Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and in addition we’ll also see the color of the latest Leading Index… But if tomorrow is anything like yesterday was… I’ll be glad that I’m on vacation and not following these bassackward markets…
To recap… The economic data yesterday was just plain awful, and the dollar rallied… Chuck was beside himself this morning on that news… Gold gave back its early gain and ended the day, basically flat, but in truth, down 30-cents… Silver gave back all its gains from the day before, and ended up down 34-cents… The overnight markets there’s been more dollar buying and the Dollar Index is up to 91.91 this morning, and the euro has bounced around the 1.19 figure. The currencies look dreary this morning except the Russian ruble!
For What It’s Worth… Ok, whenever I see Doug Casey in the news or in my email box, I think back to a conference that EverBank and the Sovereign Society co-hosted in San Diego, (La Jolla actually), and after a dinner Doug Casey and Chuck Butler sat around a fire outside, and puffed on cigars… He told me something that night I’ll always remember, he said, “Chuck, you’ve always been a purveyor of the truth, don’t ever change that.” So, anyway, this is the email that Doug Sent me yesterday, it’s about the stimulus money, and it can be found here: www.internationalman.com
Or, here’s your snippet: “It has been one year since the COVID lockdowns and restrictions were first instituted. In that time, everyday life has drastically changed—businesses, social interactions, and human interactions were altered by government decree.
But here’s the single biggest and alarming move made by Washington DC politicians and central bankers alike.
During those 365 days, there has been over $5.9 trillion in stimulus printed and disseminated.
The $5.9 trillion in stimulus represents OVER SEVEN TIMES the lost US GDP.
By any measure, this represents the most dangerous threat to your money.
Worst of all, this trend is only getting started… the Biden Administration and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen are committed to keeping the stimulus going.
Here’s the thing, historically, countries that have chosen to print money to finance everything and hand out free stuff have resulted in fiscal disaster—for everyone except those closest to the money spigots.
As the US and other countries head down a perilous path to destroying their citizens’ wealth and purchasing power (and anyone holding their currencies), you need to be prepared, so your money doesn’t become a casualty.”
Chuck again… Well, I’ve said enough, along with Bill Bonner, James Rickards, and now Doug Casey, about the stimulus Bill… I think the timing of my spring vacation couldn’t have been better, I need to get away, and so… I will!
Market Prices 3/17/21: American Style: A$ .7720, kiwi .7173, C$ .8016, euro 1.1900, sterling 1.3896, Swiss $1.0782, European Style: rand 14.9218, krone 8.4940, SEK 8.5225, forint 308.95, zloty 3.8764, koruna 21.9437, RUB 72.81, yen 109.18, sing 1.3471, HKD 7.7661, INR 72.65, China 6.5006, peso 20.69, BRL 5.6068, Dollar Index 91.91, Oil $64.19, 10-year 1.66%, Silver $25.96, Platinum $1,202.00, Palladium $2,548.00, Copper $4.09, and Gold… $1,729.20
That’s it for today… Happy St. Patrick’s Day to you! It occurred to me this morning that I had forgotten to talk about Shrove Tuesday, a couple of weeks ago, on what’s known as Fat Tuesday… Shroves are Irish pancakes, and the object was to eat as many shroves as you could to fatten up for lent… I’m going to travel to Ireland before I kick the bucket, and stay at the historical Butler House… Not this year, but hopefully in 2022… I wanted to go when I turned 60, but life got in the way… Another night game tomorrow night for me at Roger Dean Stadium, should be a very comfortable night, weather wise… Kathy’s sister is down here now, so she’ll have someone to talk to during the baseball games… A Happy Birthday to my new drinking buddy, Pete Landers tomorrow… And I have a special treat for you today… Through the years, I’ve never heard a song that made me laugh out loud like this one… And so it is that will supply the lyrics, you’ll have to make up the melody… It’s not Irish, but… it sounds like one… it’s Title is: The Scotsman…
Well a Scotsman clad in kilt left the bar one evening fair
One could tell by how he walked that he’d drunk more than his share
He fumbled round until he could no longer keep his feet
Then he stumbled off into the grass asleep beside the street
Ring-ding-did-a-little-la-di-oh, ring-di-diddly-eye-oh
He stumbled off into the grass asleep beside the street
About that time two young n’ lovely girls just happened by
One says to the other with a twinkle in her eye
“See yon sleeping Scotsman so strong and handsome built
I wonder if it’s true what they don’t wear beneath the kilt”
Ring-ding-did-a-little-la-di-oh, ring-di-diddly-eye-oh
I wonder if it’s true what they don’t wear beneath the kilt
They crept up on that sleeping Scotsman quiet as could be
Lifted up his kilt about an inch so they could see
And there behold for them to view beneath his Scottish skirt
Was nothing more than God had graced him with upon his birth
Ring-ding-did-a-little-la-di-oh, ring-di-diddly-eye-oh
Was nothing more than God had graced him with upon his birth
They marveled for a moment then one said, “We must be gone
Let’s leave a present for our friend before we move along”
As a gift they left a blue silk ribbon tied into a bow
Around the bonnie star the Scot’s kilt did lift and show
Ring-ding-did-a-little-la-di-oh, ring-di-diddly-eye-oh
Around the bonnie star the Scot’s kilt did lift and show
Now the Scotsman woke to nature’s call and stumbled towards the trees
Behind a bush he lift his kilt and gawks at what he sees
And in a startled voice he says to what’s before his eyes
“Ah, lad I don’t know where you’ve been but I see you won first prize”
Ring-ding-did-a-little-la-di-oh, ring-di-diddly-eye-oh
“Ah, lad I don’t know where you’ve been but I see you won first prize”
I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday, that also happens to be St. Patrick’s Day… And please Be Good To Yourself!
Talk to you in 10 days…
Chuck Butler