- the selling disappears on Monday…
- The rot on the dollar’s vine has been exposed…
Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, a good sign for me occurred yesterday, and will happen Tomorrow… The company that brought out the oxygen generator, is coming to pick it up tomorrow! That means that I’m on my own, which I’ve been for about 6 days now… My beloved Cardinals sure play better at home than they do on the road… My dad taught me long ago, that for a team to be good, they need to play .750 ball at home, and .500 on the road… So, there’s some work there, on the road, to go for the team… My younger sister, Terri, came to visit me yesterday… She lives in Houston, but was here for a visit… It was a nice visit, and it was good to see her again. Gordon Lightfoot greets me this morning with his song: Carefree Highway…
Pfennig tradition calls for this :Let me tell you how it will be
There’s one for you, nineteen for me Cause I’m the taxman
Yeah, I’m the taxman
Should five per cent appear too small? Be thankful I don’t take it all
Cause I’m the taxman Yeah, I’m the taxman
The robbers of our hard-earned money, come for your share to run the country today, folks… It’s Tax Day…
Do you get the feeling that I despise Taxes… Well, in case you missed the signal, I do not like Taxes, I would not like them here or there. I would not like them anywhere. I do not like green eggs and ham. My apologies to Dr. Seuss…
Well, after a week that will go down in history, this week started with a whimper… The dollar moved sideways, which means it didn’t get sold down the river, nor did it gain any ground. The BBDXY ended the day at 1,230, down 2 index points, but really, a wash on the day for the currencies. Gold was sold by $27 to start the day/ week yesterday… I told you yesterday that I wasn’t sure if the selling was profit taking or short selling but was pretty sure the short Gold paper traders were at the scene of the crime. Gold closed the day at $3,209.56
The short Gold paper traders watched as Gold first was rallying and up to $3,260, and then as Ed Steer said it, “something happened”… And Gold ended up losing $58 in a NY Minutes, and then proceeded to go below its starting price to its loss for the day… Short paper traders those dirty dogs… Silver was treated much the same as Gold, as Silver saw an intraday move of more than 70-cents! The metal was allowed to gain 3-cents on the day, in the end and closed the day at $32.26…
The price of Oil slipped a bit and ended the day trading with a $61 handle, while the selling in the 10-year Treasury was absent… The yield in the 10-year ended the day at $4.43%… Same level it was to start the day… I’m somewhat happy that the selling abated, for now that is… I was beginning to fear that the wall was crumbling down, and there was no stopping it from happening, no Fed Head, no POTUS, not anyone, and that was a bad fear, folks…
In the overnight markets last night, the dollar bobbed along in the water, buoyed by the wake from the ships passing through… In other words, the dollar was stuck in the mud, and didn’t gain or lose any ground overnight, and starts today at 1.230…. 1,230 is a long way from home for the dollar, which started April trading around 1,271 in the BBDXY… The dollar’s loss of value isn’t of major significance just yet, but it is worrisome for the dollar bugs… And they should be worried! The rot on the dollar’s vine has been exposed and there’s no “not seeing it”…
Gold is up $10 to start our day today… and Silver is up 2-cents… The price of Oil remains at $61 and the selling in the 10-year Treasury sure has abated quite a bit… Makes one wonder what the hell is going on here? But then that’s just me…
Where do we go from here? Well, with the rot on the dollar’s vine exposed, one would have to think that more dollar selling is coming… Now, I wouldn’t bet the farm on that happening, but I would make a shiny quarter bet, like the one’s we used to make on the trade desk at Mark Twain Bank… I would like to think that the smart people in the world, know that the U.S. debt is unsustainable and that financing the coming additions to the $36 Trillion in current debt is going to be a tough row to hoe… I’m still of the opinion that a new round of quantitative easing is in the cards for the Fed Heads, and our economy… But that’s down the road, so not so “today”…
Did you know that today, is the day in our country’s history that President Abe Lincoln died from the gunshot wound that John Wilkes Booth delivered to him the previous night? Imagine what a different path the U.S. would have gone on to take, if, that hadn’t taken place? The same goes true for the assassination of John F. Kennedy… I visited the JFK assassination museum in Dallas years ago, and came away with the conspiracy theory that he was set up to be murdered… That’s my story and I’m sticking to it! Not that it has anything to do with the markets today, so c’mon Chuck get with the program here!
I don’t know why I went down that rabbit hole folks… I had it in my mind that I wanted to talk about was the death of Abe Lincoln, and then the next thing I knew I was talking about JFK, and conspiracies…
I know I’ve talked about Ed Steer quite a bit lately, but… For good reason! Here’s Ed in his letter this morning, that can be found here: www.edsteergoldsilver.com “Without doubt — and if left to their own devices, all four precious metals would haven closed at God-only-knows what prices yesterday. It was particularly true of gold, where the collusive commercial traders of whatever stripe weren’t even going to allow it a sniff of the unchanged mark.
Silver’s resilience was amazing, especially considering its low volume — and why they allowed it to close up on the day was a surprise. However, they did stop it from penetrating its 50-day moving average to the upside for the second day in a row.
However, it still remains about $2.25 below its high tick of a couple of weeks back before ‘da boyz’ crushed it — and is almost the sole reason why the gold/silver ratio has blown out to 100 to 1.”
I find it better to give you the words of the person that made the quotes, then to paraphrase them in my own way…
I read this morning that 60% of CEO’s polled believe that a recession is coming, soon… I’m of the opinion that we’re already in a recession that will be confirmed by the powers that be at some point in the future, when it doesn’t matter any longer… Did you pick up my sarcasm there?
I’m of the opinion that recession should not be worried about… These recessions usually happen after a period of boom, but the Fed Heads have seen to it that the economy evades these recessions, and that’s a bad thing, in my opinion… I think a financial collapse is more worrisome than a recession, folks… And we were oh-so-close to touching on that last week… Another round of selling like we saw last week, and this whole shootin’ match will break… I’m just saying… And I have something for you in the FWIW section today from Ray Dalio, someone that should be listened to at all times!
And here’s something to think about: “there is a liquidity crisis according to JPMorgan.”
To which Fed Head Susan Collins replied: “we’re not seeing liquidity concerns overall”
Yeah, just like the Fed Heads didn’t see inflation, preferring to call it “transitory”… These Fed Heads are clueless, folks, so don’t be looking for them to bail us out of this mess… They haven’t got the gray matter to figure this out…
I took this conversation from Zerohedge.com, and they concluded the article with this: “So while the Fed may ignore warnings by entities – such as this website – that liquidity is gone, imagine a world where there is a full-blown funding crisis, banks are failing and the Fed is blamed for ignoring not just the all too clear signs, but also ignoring a warning from the largest US bank, JPMorgan.
That is not a world that Jerome Powell, no matter how much he wants to listen to Bill Dudley and crush Donald Trump, would want to be in.”
Chuck again… I hate to be the bearer of bad news, here folks, but this was getting very ugly… And it’s all driven by our debt… The need to finance it, pay for it, and deal with it… I’ve been warning everyone about this ever-increasing debt for decades now, and nothing as been done about it, and now, the chickens have come home to roost… There’s a fox in the chicken coop… And all the chickens are screaming, The Sky is Falling!
The U.S. Data Cupboard today already printed the April reading of the Empire State ISM.. (manufacturing) and it printed a negative -.1%… Nothing to see here, just move along… Tomorrow’s Data Cupboard will have a few real economic reports for us to view, including Retail Sales for March… The BHI tells me that this will be a decent report, so the dollar has that going for it tomorrow…
To recap… The selling has abated in stocks, bond, the dollar, and moved to the metals yesterday… The short paper traders were making it known that they are still here yesterday… Chuck is fearing a financial collapse, and that is something that everyone should look into… Chuck also talks about Abe Lincon this morning…
For What It’s Worth… I teased this article above, regarding Ray Dalio and what he had to say… Well, with no further ado, you can find this article here: Billionaire Ray Dalio: ‘I’m worried about something worse than a recession’
Or, here’s your snippet: “Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio said Sunday that he is worried that the turmoil resulting from President Donald Trump’s tariff and economic policies will threaten the global economy.
“Right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession,” Dalio said on NBC News’ “Meet the Press.” “And I’m worried about something worse than a recession if this isn’t handled well.”
The hedge fund billionaire said he’s more concerned about trade disruptions, mounting U.S. debt, and emerging world powers bringing down the international economic and geopolitical structure that has been in place since the end of World War II.
“We are going from multilateralism, which is largely an American world order type of thing, to a unilateral world order in which there’s great conflict,” he said.
Ray Dalio on Trump’s tariffs: I agree with the problem, I am very concerned about the solution. Dalio said five forces drive history: the economy, internal political conflict, the international order, technology, and acts of nature such as floods and pandemics. Trump’s tariffs have understandable goals, Dalio said, but they are being implemented in a “very disruptive” way that creates global conflict.”
Chuck again… I’m of the opinion that much like the old E.F. Hutton commercial, that when Ray Dalio speaks, people should listen… I’m just saying…
Market Prices 4/15/2025: American Style: A$ .6353, kiwi 5916, C$.6995, euro 1.1322, sterling 1.3222, Swiss $1.2225, European Style: rand 18.8265, krone 10.6858, SEK 9.7764, forint 360.21, zloty 3.7839, koruna 22.1459, RUB 82.10, yen 142.96, sing 1.3170, HKD 7.7679, INR 85.77, China 7.3166, peso 20.06, BRL 5.8583, BBDXY 1,230, Dollar Index 99.82, Oil $61.17, 10-year 4.43%, Silver $32.24, Platinum $962.00, Palladium $962.00, Copper $4.66, and Gold… $3,219.64
That’s it for today… My beloved Cardinals beat the Astros last night 8-3… The game started at 6:45, a time that should start all night games, as the game ended at decent time, and I was able to watch it end! I have a really difficult time staying awake for games that start late… I fall asleep watching them, and then I wake up and the game is over… My sleeping during the day has abated… That’s a good thing, in my opinion… But I did like my naps whenever they were short and not drawn out 3 hours! Radiohead takes us to the finish line today with their song: Karma Police… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler