- The dollar rallies on word of a Trade Agreement
- Ohio is trying to get Gold & Silver spent!
Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Another rainy day here but it’s been so long since we had rainy days, that I didn’t mind too much! I was reading a book yesterday, and noticed it was 2 pm… I fell asleep and didn’t wake up until it was time for Jeopardy at 4:30… I really enjoy Jeopardy, and I try with all my might to answer the clues… I rarely get many of them correct… Unless the category is rock music or sports… My good friend, Duane is also a Jeopardy junkie like me, and last Friday we watched Jeopardy on his phone in our favorite Watering Hole! Sam & Dave greet me this morning with their song: Soul Man…
Well, the FOMC did the dirty deed, and they did it dirt Cheap! (AC/DC).. The Fed Funds Rate was cut by 25 Basis Points just days after the STUPID CPI had shown that inflation had risen to 3.0%… Dumb? In my mind it sure was, but then this is what we have to deal with… Intellectuals making decisions that will impact us for years to come… Not Businessmen that know how the economy works… Intellectuals, and I use that word loosely… Powell recently told Congress that “if the Fed makes a mistake, it could cost everyone some time to come” YIKES! Just proves to me that the FOMC has cut rates 2 times in the past 2 meetings, while inflation is still rising, and money supply is in ample supply… That they did those rate cuts not for an economic sense, but as a response to the pressure they’ve received from the White House…
And guess what the dollar bugs did after another debasement of the dollar? They bought dollars! The BBDXY gained 1 index point to 1,212… C’mon dollar bugs, have you become the scarecrow and need a brain?
And Gold, which should have rallied on the rate cut announcement, that also had a caveat from Powell later that “a rate cut in December is not a foregone conclusion”, found the SPTs out and about keeping a lid on Gold. Gold lost $22 on the day, and closed at $3,931… That was quite a turnaround in Gold that the SPT’s performed yesterday, as Gold was up to $3,955 before the SPT’s showed up with arms full of short Gold Trades…
Silver was spared from the short selling yesterday and put in a 51-cent gain to close the day at $47.61… Why was Gold treated like a rental when Silver was given the red carpet to higher prices? Good Question, Chuck… And one you don’t have the answer to! It just was…
The price of Oil remained in the $60 handle, and the 10-year Treasury… I didn’t believe the screen when I checked it last night… The 10-year’s yield rose to 4.07%… What’s going on there? Short term rates were lowered, and the 10-year’s yield rose? Shouldn’t that have gone the other way? Yes, sirree Bob it should have, but it didn’t and I have to go back to what Powell said, about the December rate cut not being a foregone conclusion… That the bond boys said, yes, by then, we may be having to reverse the rate cuts… Hmmm…
In the overnight markets last night…. Holy Cow! (in my best Harry Cary voice) The dollar bugs have gone crazy mad! The BBDXY is up 8 index points to start our day today! What’s going on? It can’t be just the Powell words yesterday, could it? I guess so, that, and word that a trade agreement has been agreed to by the U.S. and China, although no details are being released right now… But either way, the dollar is getting bought hand over fist this morning, and the currencies have all be sent to their respective sick beds…
Gold is going to try to be positive again today, as it is up $37 to start our day… And Silver is back above $48 this morning, as it has gained 53-cents overnight… Gold tried like the dickens to be positive yesterday, only to see its early morning gain get nuclear bombed by the STP’s….
The price of Oil has slipped another buck and is back to trading in the $59 handle this morning and the 10-year added more to its yield and trades this morning with a 4.11% yield. The bond boys have basically told the Fed Heads that they DO NOT LIKE THEIR laissez faire handling of the economy! It will be interesting to see if the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel go to work on getting the 10-year’s yield back below 4%… Stay in your seats and keep your arms and legs tight, for this is going to be a ride on Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride…
The Good Folks at GATA sent me the following note: “Ohioans could soon buy their groceries or morning coffee with silver and gold instead of the American dollar.
House Bill 206, introduced by Reps. Jennifer Gross, R-West Chester, and Riordan McClain, R-Ashland, would establish a state currency based on gold and silver. The bill directs the state treasurer to set up a transactional currency rooted in silver and gold to address concerns with the value of the U.S. dollar.”
Chuck again, very, very interesting, eh? If this bill goes through, then it will be interesting to see how many states follow? The first step is the biggest… I’m just saying…
If the Fed Heads are thinking that the rate cuts will head off Corporations from cutting jobs… They are really barking up the wrong tree… I mean just in the last few days, Amazon, GM, Procter & Gamble are just a few of the BIG CORPS announcing layoffs that not just 1,000 here and there… They are Big Slices of workers axed…
And you recall the “error” that Jerome Powell mentioned above? Well, you don’t have to worry about making an error in the future Jerome, because you’ve already made it and then doubled down! I’m talking about the rate cuts, here folks… In case I lost you in the woods…
The Caribbean is getting devasted by Hurricane Melissa, the largest Hurricane to hit Jamaca and has destroyed most of the island… Keep away from the U.S. please!
That reminds me, if the Traffic Control workers are working next Tuesday as I’m heading back to S. Florida for a week… So, early warning… No Pfennig next Tuesday… I, of course, will remind you next Monday…
Ok, back to economies, currencies, metals and dolts!
Before we go to the Big Finish today, I wanted to share some word from my good friend, and Big Boss, Frank Trotter who posted this on LinkedIn yesterday… here’s Frank: “With the US dollar declining more than it has in decades over the first nine months of the year it may be time to diversify into some foreign currencies with the potential to gain versus the USD.
For the good of the USA, we hope we don’t see another Minsky Moment but it has that feel sometime. Long ago on our Mark Twain Banks ALCO both Hy and Laurence Meyer were participants and taught all of us more about economics than our entire academic career.”
Chuck again… Thanks Frank! BTW… Frank is busy opening the virtual doors of his new bank, Battle Bank… They are going to do banking differently from the stuck in the mud banks that exist now… I think it behoove you to go to their website and put your name on their “wait list”… And then sit back and wait for Battle Bank to contact you that it’s time to Open an Account! www.battlebank.com
I kept waiting for the ADP Employment Report to print all day yesterday, and nothing but crickets… Hmmm… What happened to the report? Was it so bad that it got censored before takeoff? I don’t know and there were not articles about the missing report, so we carry on despite our shortcomings!
The U.S. Data Cupboard had the STUPID Consumer Confidence print for us to make fun of on Tuesday… Consumers showed renewed confidence this month… Apparently, they were swayed by the news that the POTUS and Xi would meet to discuss a trade agreement between the two countries… What happens if nothing gets ironed out? I’m just saying… They should have saved their confidence for if or when a Trade Agreement gets worked out… That’s when they should celebrate!
To Recap… The FOMC did cut the Fed Funds Rate 25 Basis Points but threw cold water all over any thoughts of a December rate cut… The dollar rallied a tiny bit, and Gold turned around and got sold, while Silver rallied… U.S. Corps are announcing layoffs of thousands of workers… And U.S. consumers are confident!
For What It’s Worth… I thought we would talk about something here we normally don’t pay attention to, Consumer Financial Stress… that’s what this report is all about and it can be found here: Consumer financial stress hits a five-year high as K economy grows, supporting gold prices | Kitco News
Or, here’s your snippet: ” Growing economic uncertainty has been a key driver of renewed investment demand for gold. While easing fears have prompted some selling pressure in the precious metal, new data highlight renewed risks for American consumers.
Easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, along with a relatively calm third-quarter earnings season, continue to support equity markets at record highs and the S&P 500’s push toward 7,000 points. However, the LegalShield Consumer Stress Legal Index (CSLI) shows that consumer stress has risen to its highest level in five years.
The index rose to 71.2 in September from 68.2 in June and is up 26.3% from its post-COVID low of 56.4 in December 2021. The index has climbed steadily for seven consecutive months. LegalShield, a legal services company, provides Americans with access to legal advice, counsel, protection, and representation.
Specifically, the report noted that bankruptcy inquiries have skyrocketed in the third quarter. The Bankruptcy Index surged 17.4% in the last three months and is up 14% from the third quarter of 2024.
In an interview with Kitco News, Matt Layton, LegalShield’s senior vice president of consumer analytics, said that while consumer financial stress has risen more than expected, the trend has been developing for some time.
“All year long, we have been warning that consumer stress is rising,” he said. “We clearly have a disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street. A sustained increase in consumer stress, we would expect, will lead to an increase in foreclosure and bankruptcy down the line.”
Although the “K-shaped” economy continues to grow, Layton said he suspects the two sides will eventually converge. He added that it may only be a matter of time before weak consumer demand starts to impact broader economic activity.
“We’re seeing families hit crisis mode heading into the holiday season,” said Layton. “The question now is whether this consumer legal stress translates into a pullback in spending in the final quarter of 2025.”
Although consumer financial stress levels remain well below the record highs reported during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Layton said the concern is that stress will continue to grow.
“We are concerned that these conditions will continue into 2026.”
Chuck again… Man, am I glad I’m no longer trading in the markets with all the chaos going on these days… These days I sit on cornerstones and count the time in quartertones… (J. Browne)
Market Prices 10/30/2025: American Style: A$.6543, kiwi .5734, C$ .7143, euro 1.1566, sterling 1.3139, Swiss $1.2464, European Style: rand 17.3458, krone 10.0885, SEK 9.9512, forint 336.30, zloty 3.6765, koruna 21.0665, RUB 80.00, yen 154.24, sing 1.3018, HKD 7.7683, INR 88.70, China 7.1135, peso 18.56, BRL 5.3807, BBDXY 1,219, Dollar Index 99.55, Oil $59.90, 10-year 4.11%, Silver $48.05, Platinum $1,586.00, Palladium $1,429.00, Copper $5.13, and Gold… $3,969.00
That’s it for today… Well, the Blue Jays are one step closer to winning the World Series! The series heads back to Toronto where the Blue Jays will attempt to win just one more game before their home crowd… I, for the life of me, hadn’t thought that the Dodgers hitters would go cold…. Oh well, that’s baseball! The Mizzou Tigers have a bye this week, so no football game for me to stress about Saturday… The sun is supposed to return today, so I have that going for me! Billy Paul takes us to the finish line today with his great 70’s song: Me & Mrs. Jones… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!