*Currencies & metals rally on Wednesday
- Why do people follow along when they know something isn’t right?
Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, my visit to the hospital to see my oncologist yesterday was easy peasy… She’s concerned about the stomach problems, and bleeding, but also noted that the chemo that’s causing those problems, is shrinking the tumor in my mouth… So… I guess there’s no relief for those two side effects, so I’ll just carry on my wayward son! (Kansas) I went out to my car, which now has to sit outside of the garage, because of all the materials in the garage that the builders are using, and it had frost on the windshield! I was not ready for that! Have I told you lately how much I despise cold weather? I have? Ok, good… Well, at least you have listened to something I’ve said through the years! HAHAHA! Oscar Peterson greets me this morning with his version of one of my fave Christmas songs: The Christmas Waltz…
Well, it must be set in stone… Because all the Wall Street stock jockeys, and economists, say that the Fed Heads will begin to cut rates in June next year… Some are even calling for rates getting slashed! I have a feeling that they are jumping the gun here… But as long as the dollar gets taken to the woodshed for this outlook, then I won’t argue too vehemently against it… It’s just that these folks don’t have an “in” on info that we don’t, regarding interest rates, they are just making these calls to save the stock market! There! I said it! And I won’t be swayed into saying anything else!
So, on Tuesday this week the dollar got sold down the river, with the BBDXY losing 4 index points on the day… The currencies all rallied with none left behind on the day… Gold kicked some tail and took names later, rallying $26.90 on the day, taking the end of day price to $2.041.50… Silver gained 38-cents on the day to end at $25.10… Gold & Silver are moving to quickly, folks… They are nearing “overbought levels” on the RSI (Relative Strength Index)… So, while I like the sound of a $27 gain in a day, I’m somewhat concerted that there will be another pullback, so don’t whet your whistle on Gold gaining $27 every day!
On Wednesday, this week, the dollar rallied from being down 3 index points, to up a bit, actually up 1.5 index points on the day…. All that rally was derived from a trumped-up GDP revision… The propeller heads that put together the GDP calculations somehow, some way, found some extra GDP growth in their paperwork, and said that GPD in the 3rd QTR was up 5.2%, VS 4.9% in the previous reading… Now, I’ve been telling you all for weeks now that the U.S. economy was showing signs of circling the bowl, so how does that compute to a strong GDP? It doesn’t… so, these propeller heads are pulling the wool over my eye!
Remember, Gov’t Spending is a major part of GDP… So, even if the GDP was as strong as it they say it was, it was trumped-up with Gov’t spending… here’s the skinny on the breakdown… Consumer spending was revised down from 4% to 3.6%. Government spending was revised up from 4.6% to 5.5%. All the reports we see have shown that consumption is down… That is until the Black Friday sales began… So, once again, I say that the GPD is balderdash, and is worth a ¼ -cup of coffee… maybe…
Gold was up $2.10 yesterday, and closed at $2,043.60, while Silver was flat on the day, and remained at $25.10… Now that’s the kind of moves that I expect for Gold, slow, steady, wins the race, right hare? So, Gold traders and investors didn’t get caught up in all the hoopla of the higher revision of GDP… The price of Oil gained $2 yesterday, and I do believe that it’s today that we’ll see the announcement from OPEC on output… And bonds are gaining back some of their losses in 2022/23, with the ten year’s yield dropping to 4.26%.. (remember, as yields drop the price of the bond goes higher and vice versa). From everything I read, the idea that the Fed is on tap to cut rates soon, has abated… But the bond buying continues… Hmmm… Now, those are things that do make you go Hmmm…
In the overnight markets last night….the overnight traders must have fallen for the ruse that was a strong GDP number in the U.S. yesterday, and last night they bought dollars… The BBDXY gained 3 index points in the overnight trading, and the euro, which looked like it was ready to hit 1.10 yesterday, has fallen back… Sort of like the Continental Soldiers, fire and fall back! Gold is down $4 to start the day today, and Silver is flat. Today is the day we’re supposed to hear from our friends (NOT!) at OPEC, and yesterday, the Oil traders took a leap and bought Oil driving the price up $2, and in the overnight markets it gained another buck, to trade this morning with a $78 handle… (Whew! glad I filled my gas tank yesterday!)
Good friend, Dennis Miller sent me a note the other day, saying: “You called it!”, and then gave me a link to this story from CNBC.com “November’s last auction of Treasury notes ended with a whimper, rather than a bang.
Nearly $40 billion of government debt that matures in seven years was up for sale on Tuesday. The highest yield accepted by investors was 4.399%, well above the average of 4.258% for the prior six such auctions.
…the government had to offer higher yields to entice investors to buy the debt.
Treasury issuance through October this year is 32% higher than at this time in 2022.”
What Dennis was referring to was in interview I did with him, where I explained the dilemma for the U.S. and it’s funding their ever-growing deficit with fewer buyers of their debt… So… for once, something that I said would happen, did so, while the iron is still hot… I’m just saying…
Bill Bonner had some thoughts yesterday in his letter www.bonnerprivateresearch.com Here’s Bill: “How did we get in this situation – with $33.7 trillion of debt…annual interest payments of $1 trillion per year…and rising? Why did voters go along with so many crack-pot schemes and jackass programs?
We’ve seen that it’s not always easy for the ruling classes to get the square pegs of their subjects to go into the round holes they’ve prepared for them. Immigration, for example, may or may not be a good thing…but bring in too many immigrants and ‘The People’ won’t like it.
Still, it is amazing what they will put up with. Yes, that is another characteristic of our kind: the crooked timber bends with the prevailing winds.” – Bill Bonner
Chuck again… yes, I refer to these people as the sheeple… They probably don’t have a nickel of savings, debt up to their eyeballs, and not an ounce of Gold… and they continue to go along with what the Gov’t is telling them… Just like the GDP yesterday… what a bunch or horse manure! But People keep spending… their hard-earned money, or the money that was sent to them from the Gov’t…
this from CNBC.com… “Consumer spending has remained remarkably resilient in the face of some stiff economic headwinds. Nearly all Americans, 96%, are concerned about the current state of the economy, according to a recent report by Intuit Credit Karma.
Still, more than a quarter are “doom spending,” or spending money despite economic and geopolitical concerns, the report found.”
Chuck again… “doom spending”? So that’s what it’s called now… I like that phrase, because it describes what I just talked about, that people keep spending…
The Data Cupboard yesterday, had the aforementioned GDP revision… And the Stupid Consumer Confidence was up to 102, from 101… As I’ve explained previously, this data set, is really just the pulse of the stock market… nothing more, nothing less… So, in my mind, we don’t need it! We get inundated with stock market updates all day long, we don’t need to be spending money on stuff like this…
And finally, there was a report I read yesterday that said that 60+ bank branches had closed last month… My immediate thought was that banks won’t need branches when they go to digital currency… So, get rid of the fat now… That’s my take on that news…
Today’s Data Cupboard has some important data.. .First up we have the usual fare for a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday, the weekly initial jobless claims for last week, that was holiday shortened, so don’t get carried away when the number comes in so low… We’ll also see Personal Income and Spending for Rocktober… Both will be disappointing but positive… And then finally we get to see the color of the Fed’s preferred inflation report, the PCE… (personal consumption expenditures) I don’t expect this to show any gains in inflation dropping from 3.4% annualized rate in September…
To recap… Tuesday was a humdinger for Gold, as it gained $26.90 on the day! Silver moved back above $25 too! The dollar got sold, and the currencies all rallied… On Wednesday, Gold’s gain was watered down, which is the preferred method of moving higher by Chuck… “doom spending” is a new phrase… learn it to memory, because I’ll be using it a lot going forward!… And you’re not going to want to miss today’s FWIW… I
For What It’s Worth… This came to me from longtime reader, Bob… And after reading it, I was convinced that it was FWIW worthy… It’s about how so many Americans are going hungry, and then Chuck’s take on it following, and it can be found here: New Study: US Hunger Soaring due to Federal Aid Cuts | Common Dreams
Or, here’s your snippet: “The number of Americans without enough food over a seven-day period was an average of 40% higher in September and October of 2023 than in September and October of 2021, according to a report released today by the nonprofit group Hunger Free America, based on an analysis of federal data.
Over that time period, the number of people without enough food increased from 19.7 million to 27.8 million nationwide.
Hunger Free America attributes the surge in food insecurity to the expiration of the expanded Child Tax Credit and universal school meals. Many federal benefit increases have either gone away entirely, or are being ramped down, even as prices for food, rent, healthcare, and fuel continue to soar. Said Joel Berg, CEO of Hunger Free America, “This report should be a jarring wake up call for our federal, state, and local leaders.”
According to the USDA food insecurity data – a different way of measuring food hardship analyzed by Hunger Free America – 11.9% of Americans, or 38.8 million people, were found to live in food insecure households over the course of a whole year, as averaged for the years between 2020 and 2022. The states with the highest rates of food insecure individuals from 2020-2022 were Texas (19.0%), Arkansas (16.3%), Louisiana (16.1%), Mississippi (15.4%), Oklahoma (15.3%), and South Carolina (15.3%). Arkansas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, South Carolina, and Texas were consistently on the lists of the top ten states with the highest rates of food insecurity for individuals overall, children, employed adults, and older Americans.”
Chuck again… let me see… we have a country that is up to its eyeballs in debt, and not enough tax revenue to even come close to covering the Gov’t’s spending sprees… So, as I’ve explained before, as we go along, there will be items from the list of things we pay for, that will be dropped… Yes, that will hurt a lot of people, and this should be their wake-up call to get out there and do something about it… I’m just saying…
Market Prices 11/30/ 2023: American Style: A$ .6605, kiwi .6151, C$ .7350, euro 1.0928, sterling 1.2651, Swiss $1.1427, European Style: rand 18.8228, krone 10.7297, SEK 10.4596, forint 347.76, zloty 3.9776, koruna 22.2287, RUB 88.68, yen 147.50, sing 1.3369, HKD 7.8110, INR 83.39, China 7.1372, peso 17.41, BRL 4.9356, BBDXY 1,237.67, Dollar Index 103.21, Oil $78.54, 10-year 4.29%, Silver $25.09, Platinum $941.00, Palladium $1,023.00, Copper $3.76, and Gold… $2,038.47
That’s it for today and this week… tomorrow is Dec 1st… YAHOO that means I only have 1 more month of dealing with Cold weather before I head south! Our Blues get back on the ice tonight at home VS Buffalo, a team that has almost an identical record as the Blues have… Should be an interesting game! My stomach problems have settled down since Monday… And the bleeding has stopped again for a few days… So, I think I’m good to go out today! YAHOO! Don’t overdo it, Chuck… Well, I was correct earlier this week, when I said that I had gained a few pounds over the Thanksgiving weekend… My oncologist was pleased… Hmmm… I told her… Too much pumpkin pie! Man, do I love pumpkin pie! OK… Vince Guaraldi Trio takes us to the Finish Line today with his song: Charlie Brown Theme… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a Fantastico Friday tomorrow, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler