- the dollar recovers overnight at a quicker pace…
- Holy Cow, we booked a trade surplus!
Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals were able to eke out a victory yesterday, after losing 2 to the Braves… It was a real nail biter, but after 4 hours of rain delays, the game finally ended… Tonight is the Home Run Derby and tomorrow night is the All-Star Game… Friday and Saturday were beautiful days of weather here, but Sunday brought rain… You have to have the rainy days to fully enjoy the sunny days, in my humble opinion! Johnny Rivers greets me this morning with his hit song: Secret Agent Man..
The dollar closed the week on Friday at 1,196 in the BBDXY… It started the week weaker, and drifted higher as the week played out… The dollar continues to show that it wants to get weaker, but for some strange reason, it hasn’t. And the euro has suffered because of that. The single unit ended the week at 1.1688… And the rest of the currencies all slumped downward VS the dollar. No major moves, just small moves, but downward nonetheless…
Gold finished last week on a good note… After gaining a measly $10 on Thursday, Gold took off on Friday, and fished the week up $32 to close the week at $3,356… Silver was the shining star on Friday, as it gained $1.38 to close the week at $38.44… That performance was long overdue from Silver, and much needed, if it’s going to reach $40 like so many pundits claimed a month ago…
The price of Oil finished the week trading with a $68 handle… NO new news from the region so Oil traders were confident in pushing the envelope o the Oil price. The 10-year Treasury bond finished the week with a 4.42% yield… Instead of listening to me, here’s Ed Steer’s thoughts on the 10-year: “As I continue to point out in this spot every week, the 10-year hasn’t been allowed to trade above its 4.92% high tick set back on October 15, 2023 — and it’s more than obvious from the above chart that it will he held at something under 5% until further notice.” – Ed Steer from www.edsteergoldsilver.com
The other metals that we track all had phenomenal days on Friday last week, Platinum was up $45 to end the week at $1,409, and Palladium was up $73 to close at $1,236… And Copper ended the week at $5.60… In Ed Steer’s Saturday letter he always gives us the days of production needed to cover the short positions in all the metals, and I noticed that Copper is only needs 5 days of production to cover its short positions… And so, that means that there is very little interest in shorting Copper right now… And that should bode well for it to continue to rise… I’m just saying…
In the overnight markets last night… The dollar was bought at a greater pace than previously, with the BBDXY gaining 3 index points overnight… The BBDXY starts our day/ week at 1,199… I read this morning that Wall Street is fearful of inflation returning, as well they should! The euro remains below the 1.17 to start our day/ week, and the rest of the currencies are looking a little worn out… The Euro Wannabes are still well bid, so we have that going for us!
Gold is up to start our day/ week $12, and Silver is up 60-cents… If what I talked about above regarding Wall Street returning to a risk-off status because of their fear that inflation is returning, then that bodes well for these two metals… Tensions are bound to return to the markets today, as the POTUS is going to make an announcement on Russia today… So, watch for that… and trade accordingly…
The price of Oil bumped higher again last night and now trades with a $69 handle… inch-by-inch, the price of Oil recovers… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield is rising again and starts our day/ week trading with a $4.43% yield. Remember the wolf, aka, the Fed Heads are always at the door here, and could come in and do their yield curve control, aka price manipulation, at any time!
Well, the U.S. Federal Budget was a surplus last month! Can you believe that? Well, it’s tru, it’s tru, I did see a putty tat! This from Reuters: “A first: U.S. customs-duty collections jumped in June, topping $100 billion for the first time in a fiscal year and producing a surprise $27 billion budget surplus for the month.” As the great Harry Caray used to say: Holy Cow! So, I’m guessing the POTUS popped a bottle of champagne to celebrate this…
But this is nothing more than a rounding error, folks… Our Debt is now $37 Trillion, and while I admit that the general public has no idea what the debt is, nor do they comprehend the size… My favorite read, Matthew Piepenburg had this to say this past weekend, “Ever since Nixon took away the gold chaperone from the USD, politicians have been buying temporary prosperity, debt-based “growth” and duped voters by taking US public debt levels from $248B in 1971 to $37T (and counting) today.
This number alone is staggering.
The difference between “billions” and “trillions” is not merely alphabetical, it’s brutal.
1 BILLION seconds ago, for example, places us in 1997. Bit 1 TRILLION seconds ago places us at 30,000 BC.
Let that sink in for a moment.
If this shocks or bothers you, well… you’re not alone.”
Chuck again… Matthew can be found here: Gold Revaluation: Trump’s Red Button Option?
I was reading Bill Bonner’s Newsletter on Friday, and he came up with some interesting ideas for fiscal policy for the U.S. These are very familiar as they echo my “debt solutions” Sunday Pfennig many years ago… Here’s Bill: “Anyone could spend a few minutes and come up with much better federal policies. How about this:
Quietly get rid of the violent criminals…then, set up a friendly guest-worker program for other immigrants.
Seriously cut government programs…reduce spending…balance the budget. Let Congress waste resources any way it wants…just so long as it doesn’t spend more than it gets in revenue.
Disband the Fed…re-establish a gold-backed dollar as America’s monetary standard…and let buyers and sellers of credit discover interest rates on their own.”
Chuck again, he also mentions bringing home all the soldiers from every nook and cranny all over the world. He wants to have a parade and celebrate their homecoming and then disband them… My thought on that was that we needed to bring them home and put them on the borders, North and South, and that would take care of our illegal immigration problem…
But in the end, these are just thoughts, from logical thinking people, that will NEVER be implemented in our lifetimes, and it’s too darn bad! Instead, we get the MAGIC Money Tree people, the Dick Cheney’s of the world, with is Debts don’t matter garbage, and others who talk about this resilient economy… Chuckleheads, all of them…
In other news from late last week, the POTUS announced a 50% tariff on Brazil’s export to the U.S. Now this wasn’t your normal, “Let’s get the playing field even, kind of tariff”
Oh what the heck, I’m going to let Dave Gonigam from the 5 Bullets newsletter explain it to you, here’s Dave: “This is a novel use of tariffs… not to “level the playing field” when it comes to trade, nor to raise revenue for a cash-strapped federal government… but to meddle in the political affairs of other countries.”
I want to know why, oh why, we as a country continue to stick our noses in other countries’ business? Just think of all the lives we could have kept from harm much less death, if we had just let these countries alone?
The U.S. Data Cupboard gets back to reporting real economic data this week, with Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Retail Sales and more… There’s nothing in the Data Cupboard today, but tomorrow, we see the STUPID CPI for June… I’m telling you now, that this data print will NOT represent what we as consumers are feeling as inflation… But it will tell us that inflation rose in June… I’m sure of that!
To recap… The precious metals came roaring back to life on Friday last week, and all 5 of them added to their values… The dollar didn’t move much so it wasn’t dollar weakness that caused the metals to soar, it was rather the talk of more tariffs, that have just about ruled every day for some time now… And overnight, the dollar was bought at a greater pace to start the day/ week at 1,199…
For What It’s Worth… I’ve long said that U.S. investors are not interested in Gold as a hedge for their investment portfolio and a store of wealth… This article goes into how Hong Kong Investors see Gold for just that… And if can be found here: Hong Kong Investors Have Nearly Tripled Their Gold Holdings
Or, here’s your snippet: “While many Western investors still haven’t hopped on the gold bandwagon, Asian investors have been piling up yellow metal.
For example, affluent Hong Kong investors have nearly tripled their gold holdings over the last year.
According to an HSBC survey, Hong Kong residents with $100,000 to $2 million in investable assets have allocated an average of 11 percent of their portfolios to gold and other precious metals. That was up from a 4 percent allocation just one year ago.
This reflects rising interest in gold and silver by Chinese and Asians more generally.
Investors in mainland China have even more exposure to gold, with an average of 15 percent of their portfolios allocated to precious metals. That was up from 7 percent last year.
Gold was up around 28 percent through the first half of this year. That follows on the heels of a 26 percent gain in 2024.
Asian investors and central bank gold buying have driven the gold bull so far. While physical gold investment surged in China (and Asia more broadly) last year, it remained tepid in the U.S. For instance, gold bar and coin sales surged 12 percent to 124 Tonnes in the first quarter of 2025, accounting for 38 percent of global Q1 bar and coin investment. Meanwhile, gold coin and bar sales fell to the lowest level in five years in the U.S.
According to the Financial Times, gold has become the most attractive investment option in the midst of a Chinese real estate crisis and a bear market in stocks.”
Chuck Again… this article really nails what I’ve been talking about or years now… I also know that many of you dear readers already have taken positions in physical Gold… So, to you, I’m preaching to the choir!
Market Prices 7/14/2025: American Style: A$.6565, kiwi .5989, C$ .7312, euro 1.1689, sterling 1.3481, Swiss $1.2555, European Style: rand 17.8690, krone 10.1037, SEK 9.5876, forint 332.36, zloty 3.6447, koruna 21.0871, RUB 78.09, yen 147.32, sing 2.2810, HKD 7.85, INR 85.98, China 7.1674, peso 18.69, BRL 5.5594, BBDXY 1,199, Dollar Index 97.77, Oil $69.52, 10-year 4.43%, Silver $39.05, Platinum $1,398.00, Palladium $1,251, Copper $5.52, and Gold… $3,369
That’s it for today… Well, early warning that this week will be a short one, as I am to report to the hospital early Thursday morning, for needles, and a visit with my oncologist, oh, and there’s also an infusion… For those of you wondering… The tumor in my jaw has stopped shrinking… This is not good news, but it hasn’t started growing again, so that is good news… So, my visit with my oncologist will be important… And next week I leave on my annual summer vacation next Saturday… YAHOO! This time I’ll be on a plane without an oxygen tank! Thank goodness for that! The Great Dusty Springfield takes us to the finish line today with her song: You Don’t Have To Say You Love Me… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler