- Gold sees more short paper trading on Wednesday…
- JPMorgan says Gold will go to $6,000
Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, my beloved Cardinals failed at their attempt to extend their win streak to 10 games yesterday, but then came back in the 2nd game of the doubleheader to win 14-7… I know, I know that looks like a football game score, but the bats were humming in the 2nd game, and so now, the Cardinals are the first team in the NL to win a series in Philly this year, as they won 2 of 3 games in the city of brotherly love… I’m not a happy camper this morning, and we’ll get to that in a short time below, but first The Moody Blues greets me this morning with their song from their Seventh Sojourn Album (one of my fave albums!): New Horizons…
The dollar basically drifted at sea yesterday, but finally at the end of the day, booked a 1 index point gain in the BBDXY… The euro remained below the 1.12 handle as it seems to just biding its time before it goes higher VS the dollar. And I must have put the Chuck mentions it jinx on the Chinese Renminbi, because it lost a bit of ground to the dollar yesterday…
Gold, and this is what I’m not happy about, saw the short paper traders again yesterday, pulling their tricks to push Gold down $72, and watching it close at $3,178… And this time Silver got thrown in the mix of short paper trading losing 69-cents to close at $32.31… You know, other than me, the good folks at GATA, and Ed Steer, no website or letter out there, talks about the metals getting shorted…Instead, they go with the old lines of “profit taking” and “a move from risk assets” and even “Gold has lost its luster”… Well, I’ll just say that the short paper trading is real, and it should be outlawed… I’m just saying…
And before I go on here… These dirty dogs (SPT’s) are making Gold affordable again, and this is the time you’ll want to load up the pickup truck with Gold at the cheaper prices… Before it takes off for higher ground again… Again, I’m just saying…
The price of Oil lost a buck in trading yesterday and ended the day trading with a $62 handle… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield continued to rise yesterday ending the day trading with a 4.54% yield,,, Bonds are usually slow movers and forward looking… So, what are the bond boys looking at in the future that is scaring the bejeebers out of them? Well, I would think that it has something to do with what I talked about yesterday, regarding the hyped-up euphoria in the stocks that a trade war was averted… For 90-days that is, and then who knows what will become of trade with China? Only the Shadow Knows… But the Bond boys are taking a flyer on the thought that the POTUS will ratchet up the tariffs once again by then, and then who knows what goes on then?
In the overnight markets last night… The dollar drifted some more and ended up starting today down 2 indez points in the BBDXY.. I don’t think the dollar bugs know what to do with the dollar, as it flew out of the starter’s gate on Monday, and hasn’t seen a good bid since… I think the PPT believes that their work is done, that they have gotten the message across to the dollar bears that if they think they’re going to run the dollar down, they’ll have to deal with the PPT..
Gold was basically flat to start the day today and then buyers showed up and Gold is up $17 in the early trading… Silver is getting sold to start the day today, but it’s only down 17-cents at this point, so that could be turned around easily… I’m of the opinion that these cheaper levels to endter either Gold or Silver or both, are bargain basement prices, a blue light special if you will, and buyers should be taking full advantage of this situation…
The price of Oil has slipped another buck overnight and trades this morning with a $61 handle… And I know I sound like a broken record, but bond yields keep rising, with the 10-year’s yield at 4.51% to start our day today…
Circling the wagons, and coming back to Gold… I came across this and thought, well I’ll save my though on this for the end, but first this can be found on mining.com “JPMorgan reinforced its bullish case for gold by forecasting prices to rise to $6,000 per ounce by the end of U.S. President Donald Trump’s current term in 2029, an 80% increase on current levels.
This scenario, according to its analysts, could realistically occur with just a small allocation away from U.S. assets under the current macroeconomic climate.
Even with 0.5% of foreign-held U.S. assets reallocated to gold, that would result in 18% annual returns and eventually send prices to $6,000, the bank wrote in a note on Wednesday.”
Chuck again… You know I’ve seen Gold forecasted to reach $6,000, 10,000, 16,000 and so on, and to all of those I just one thing to say… Gold will reach those levels, when it is allowed to by the short paper traders… end of discussion…
There was an article on MarketWatch earlier this week that featured, a Fed Head, Williams, saying that “There are early signs consumers are starting to pull back on spending” Stephanie Pomboy alluded to this in her article that was the FWIW article yesterday, saying that consumer debt was exploding higher and that will reduce the spending that consumers can do other than paying on debt…
You know what happens to a country that is dependent on consumer spending/ consumption and that spending goes away? The country loses economic growth… Uh-Oh! Those darn zero interest times come back to bite us in the rear!
The U.S. Data Cupboard today is the lollapalooza of Data days… In other words, there’s a plethora of data prints today… We start the day with April Retail Sales and even with the Easter holiday sales in the early part of April, the BHI indicates to me that this report will be disappointing at best… Moving along, we then will see the color of April PPI (wholesale inflation)… Next up we’ll see April reports for Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, both of which won’t be painting any pretty pictures for the economy… Finally we will see the Empire State report on Manufacturing, which should be not very good…
All-in-all, the economic data today should tell us that the U.S. economy is not as strong as the leaders would tell you it is…
To recap… The dollar drifted yesterday but finally ended up 1 index point in the BBDXY. So, no relief for the currencies, and Chuck thinks he put the jinx on the Chinese renminbi… Gold saw more short paper trading yesterday, as the SPT’s got Gold down $72 on the day… This time Silver didn’t escape unscathed, and lost 69-cents… The bond boys are pushing bond yields higher and Chuck goes through that scenario… And JPMorgan says Gold will be $6,000 by the current POTUS end of term… And it’s a BIG data prints day…
For What It’s Worth… Well, I became sick to my stomach while writing this morning, and it reminded me of the old days when I would get sick to my stomach while writing at my desk… Any way that’s why the letter is a little later this morning… This article comes to us from Bloomberg.com and it’s about how the POTIS wants a cheaper currency (dollar) and you can find it here: Dollar Falls as US-Korea Talks Fuel Bets Trump Favors Weaker Currency (USD) – Bloomberg
Or, here’s your snippet: ” The dollar fell in late Asia trading on fresh speculation President Donald Trump favors a weaker greenback and will prod other governments to let their currencies rise in return for trade deals with the US.
The US currency extended an earlier decline on Wednesday after a Bloomberg News report that South Korea and US officials discussed exchange rate policies at a May 5 meeting in Milan and will continue to do so.
The won rose and the Japanese yen also climbed, helping to push the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down for a second day after it rallied on Monday following the announcement of a temporary truce in the US-China trade war. It erased its losses by early afternoon in New York.
Trump and other administration officials have long argued weakness in Asian currencies versus the dollar hand an unfair advantage to the region’s exporters over US rivals, prompting markets to bet foreign governments will need to allow or even encourage strength in their exchange rates if they are to prove successful when trade talks kick off with the US.”
Chuck again… Well, nothing has changed here, President Trump desired a weaker dollar in his first term along with rate cuts and he didn’t get them… I’m just saying…
Market Pirces 5/15/2025: American Style: A$ .6407, kiwi .5879, C$ .7165, euro 1.1196, sterling 1.3388, Swiss $1.1930, European Style: rand 18.1187, krone 10.4134, SEK 9.7366, forint 360.29, zloty 3.7866, koruna 22.2640, RUB 80.56, yen 146.94, sing 1.2986, HKD 7.8076, INR 85.75, China 7.2095, peso 19.36, BRL 5.6379, BBDXY 1.229, Dollar Index 100.82, Oil $61.02, 10-year 4.51%. Silver $92.17, Platinum $ 987.00, Palladium $969.00, Copper $5.63, and Gold… $3,192.70
That’s it for today… I was out for my short distance walk yesterday, and crossed some grass, and almost fell on my face, as I tripped and stumbled on a tree root. It was a good thing my friend/ neighbor, was there to catch me and keep me upright! Whew! That was a close one! Thank you for being there Mr. B! I actually thought the City STL soccer teams was going to win a game last night, as they were up 2-0 at the half time… But it was not to be, and they tied 2-2 with KC… UGH! This team will probably set the record for the number of ties in a season this year! I haven’t been to a game this year, as last night was supposed to be my first game of the season, but after realizing that I wouldn’t be able to walk the distances needed to get to the stadium and in the stadium, I gave the tickets to my son, Alex… Donnie Iris takes us to the finish line today with his 80’s song: Ahh Leah! I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please continue to Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler