- the dollar rallies, in the face of rising inflation
- Nothing is stopping Gold these days
Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you… I’m back for a second day in row, but still having problems breathing when I walk… I did take a 40 yard walk yesterday, and didn’t have to stop and rest, so… There’s progress for me! My beloved Cardinals started the game off looking good, but in the end, they lost to the Angels in extra innings… UGH! The original version of the band Santana greets me this morning with their song Everybody’s Everything… Don’t know that one? Just YOUTUBE the title, I think you’ll like it…
Well, the dollar didn’t fall apart yesterday, instead it rallied by 2 index points in the BBDXY… That’s the dollar index I use, as it’s not weighed down with euros, like the old Dollar Index… There was no rhyme or reason for the dollar to rally yesterday, probably just some cleaning or squaring for the dollar’s sake…
I told you yesterday morning that you would like what Gold had done in the early trading, and then later reported that Gold was up $32… Well, it didn’t stop there, and Gold gained $37 on the day to close at $3,122… Silver wasn’t allowed by the short traders, to participate in a rally yesterday, and ended up the day flat as a pancake (Head East) and closed at $31.17…
The price of Oil rallied yesterday by $2 and ended the day trading with a $71 handle, while the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel must have been asleep at the wheel yesterday, because the 10-year Treasury’s yield went higher to 4.26% from 4.19% yesterday…
In the overnight markets last night….the dollar continued to rally and sits this morning at 1,275 in the BBDXY Index, up 4 index points from yesterday morning. I really don’t get why the dollar is rallying, with the threat of a global trade war happening, and taking place tomorrow, when the POTUS announces his new round of tariffs in the rose garden at the White House… I have something for you in the FWIW section today regarding the dollar’s fate going forward, so don’t change the bat channel, stay right here! Those pop tarts can wait!
Nothing seems to get in the way of Gold rising these days, as it is up another $10 in the early trading this morning…Silver is getting sold short again and is down 22-cents to start our day. I wish horrible things on the short paper traders, and I mean it! I’m not a mean person, per se, but these guys and gals have really gotten under my skin, and made me be mean… And I don’t like that! I like being the fun guy, that doesn’t let things get to me!
The price of Oil remained in the $71 handle overnight… Oil is a commodity, that I refer to when I say that inflation is going to rise with the tariffs, and that will be good for the commodities… And the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel must have been awakened and realized they were asleep on the job yesterday, when the 10-year rallied, because they (the Feds) came back with their usual yield controls, and pushed the yield of the 10-year Treasury down to 4.16%… UGH! Manipulation in everything is the thing these days, and it really gets me that we can’t have true price discovery in every asset…
You know what I was thinking about with the Gold price soaring these days, that it’s probably not cost worthy, to get a Gold replacement tooth any longer… See? My mind is still wandering from all the drugs I’m taking right now!
Well, there’s talk all over the street these days about how the short paper traders are about to go out of business… I the tone of words by the Church Lady (Dana Carvey) Now, wouldn’t that be nice? For instance, the good folks at Gata sent me this notice: “Maybe the final print of today’s CME Group gold report for trading on March 28 will be revised. The final report shows that the open interest on the April gold contract increased by 45,420 from the preliminary report to 106,662 contracts. March 28 was the last report before first notice, so that is a doubling of metal set for physical delivery… ”
Chuck again, it will be very interesting to see if those that are short stand for delivery, or will they be told to rollover the contracts for the next month? I think they’ll be told to roll them over, because the COMEX doesn’t have that much physical Gold to make good on delivery… If this is all mumbo jumbo for you, please accept my apologies, as I know of no other way than to describe it like the Gold Traders do…
I found something down here that will do me no good going forward, but I can’t resist it… There’s a place down here that delivers cinnamon rolls to your door! I’m a sucker and a half for cinnamon rolls, and so I had 3 of them delivered yesterday… As I sat here eating one of them, I thought… This can’t be good for me, but that didn’t stop me from devouring it! I still check my sugar/ glucose, all the time… Remember when the chemo I was on, caused my blood sugar to rise to diabetic coma range? At that time, I had to take diabetic medicine to get it under control, and I said to everyone in this letter that I didn’t want to be a diabetic, and I couldn’t wait to be off that chemo and onto something else… I should have been more careful about what I wished for, because now the pharma industry is out of new chemo for me, and now I’m part of a trial that involves infusions of drugs… I would have preferred taking the diabetic medicine to receiving infusions of drugs…
There’s not much going on this morning, all the newswires are full of are thoughts on tomorrow’s tariffs announcement by the POTUS… So, this letter will be shorter than usual, because we’ve been through the tariffs talk previously, and beaten it down… Drove it like a rental, and put away wet…
For What It’s Worth… I saw this article on Boomberg.com and said this is FWIW worthy… It’s about the dollar and how it’s losing ground, after a long rally it had previously, and it can be found here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-28/trump-is-rattling-the-market-s-faith-that-the-dollar-is-a-haven
Or, here’s your snippet: “As US stock prices tumbled this month, John Sidawi, a fund manager at Federated Hermes, noticed something strange.
The dollar, long a go-to hiding place during market selloffs, wasn’t rallying this time as investors rushed for safety. It was sinking, too, and fast as hot money poured into gold, the yen, European stocks — almost anywhere but the US.
“It’s unusual and very telling,” said Sidawi, who helps oversee bond investments at the firm. “The dollar, in an environment where it should be acting like a safe haven, is not.”
That, as with so much of the volatility that has whipsawed global markets recently, has a singular explanation: President Donald Trump.
Just two months into his second term, his escalating tariffs and bid to roll back decades of globalization is shaking confidence in the US currency — which has had a privileged place at the heart of the world financial system for eight decades.
The dollar has dropped against all but a handful of the 31 major currencies over the last three months, sending Bloomberg’s dollar index down nearly 3%, its worst start to a year since 2017. The price of gold — a rival haven — has surged to a record high of over $3,000 an ounce. By mid-March, speculative traders started betting against the dollar for the first time since Trump’s election amid fear his policy shifts could drive the world’s largest economy into a recession.
“As opposed to being the usual bastion of stability and first choice haven for foreign-exchange market operators, the greenback instead now stands as quite the opposite,” said Michael Brown, a senior research strategist in London for Pepperstone, one of the largest currency brokerages. He said an increasing number of clients are asking “where should I be looking at as opposed to just switching on the autopilot and hiding in the dollar?”
The recent drop hasn’t significantly eroded the strength of the dollar, given how much it had previously risen on the back of the nation’s strong economy and elevated interest rates, and it could bounce back if worries about a global slowdown cause overseas investors to pile into US Treasuries. It also remains solidly entrenched as the world’s key currency, used for the majority of central bank reserves and for the purchase of commodities like oil, in large part because no significant alternative has emerged.
“The rise and fall of currencies is not something that occurs because you get a wildcard president that is doing his best to kill globalization,” said Carmen Reinhart, a Harvard University professor and former World Bank chief economist. “The dollar did not overtake the British pound as a reserve currency overnight.”
Chuck again, yes, I know a little longish this morning with the FWIW article… But, there’s more to the article if you care to read it, just click on the link above…
Market Prices 4/1/2025: American Style: A$.6251, kiwi .5676, C$ 6946, euro 1.0778, sterling 1.2896, Swiss 1.1332, European Style: rand 18.8275, krone 10.4919, SEK 10.0270, forint 373.57, zloty 3.8804, koruna 23.1359, RUB 84.56, yen 149.20, sing 1.3320, HKD 7.7811, INR 85.47, China 7.2709, peso 20.51, BRL 5.7186, BBDXY 1,275.51, Dollar Index 104.21, Oil $71.36, 10-year 4.16%, Silver $33.94, Platinum $997.00, Palladium $1,008.00, Copper $5.05, and Gold $3,151.98…
That’s it for today, April Fool’s Day, 4/1/2025… I remember when I was younger, I would always pull an April Fool’s gag on Kathy, but as the years went by, she didn’t care for them, and I ran out of ideas, so now it’s just another day in our lives… Boy, did we have some loud thunderstorms here last night… At first, I couldn’t hear them, because of the oxygen generator that’s always running making its usual noise, but then I saw the lightening out on the ocean, and the rain began to beat a little stronger… Hey, as long as it rains late at night, and not during the daylight hours… Yesterday, I stretched my oxygen hose, all the way to the balcony, and sat in the hot sun for about an hour, and read a book, it sure did feel good to have the sun on my body once again, it had been too long without out it! I can’t wait until I’m healed and can go outside without oxygen and sit in the sun and read! It’ll come sooner or later, probably later, as this has been a slow slog, but better late than never! Thank you to all of you dear readers who sent me get well wishes after my good friend, Frank Trotter wrote to you and told you I was in the hospital… Thank you, thank you, thank you, (in my best Gomer Pyle voice) I go home to my little river town this weekend… I will really miss the Florida sun, and ocean view, and everything else about my winter home… But, there’s no place like home, and we’ll see what happens then… The band, Chicago, takes us to the finish line today, with their hit song: I’m a Man… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler