What The Heck Happened Overnight?

  • Currencies & metals continue their rally on Tuesday.
  • Lola calls for clients to diversify…. .

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday!  Well, our string of very nice days for November comes to an end today…. And then it’s back to normal November weather….  When I was a young man, they would call what we had here an “Indian Summer”….  I haven’t heard that term for years, so I guess they don’t call it that any longer…  Probably was demeaning to the Indians!  The PC Police will probably be dialing me up! And if they do, I’ll be sure to tell them where to go to find someone who cares!  The Stephen Kummer Trio greets me this morning with their version of the song: Have Yourself A Merry Christmas

Well, the dollar didn’t get bought yesterday, thus making it two consecutive days of selling. The BBDXY lost 2 index points yesterday and ended the day at 1,278….  The euro, which was left for dead a week ago, has perked up and is within spitting distance of 1.06….  The rest of the currencies are feeling and looking a bit better, but it will require more dollar selling to get them out of their sick beds… 

Gold was up early in the morning yesterday, then saw some short paper trading bring it back about $15, but by the end of the day, Gold proved that you can’t keep a good investment down, and showed a gain of $22 to close the day at $2,632…  Silver was the same kind of treatment that Gold did, but by the end of the day, Silver had gained 15-cents to close at $31.28

The price of Oil remained trading with a $69 handle yesterday, and the 10-year regained some of its lost yield from the day before, and ended the day trading with a 4.39% yield…. 

In the overnight markets last night.. Well, stop the press! The dollar is back on the warpath! Last night saw the dollar reverse its most recent course, and the BBBY gained 6 index points overnight! Wait, What? Yes, it’ very strange to me that this happened in the overnight markets… There had to be some PPT intervention, I’m positive of that, because the overnight markets all together wouldn’t move the dollar that much in one session… So, the BBDXY is 1,284 this morning, and all the currencies have pulled the bed sheets over their eyes once again, as they remain in their respective sick beds…. 

Gold is not being affected by the dollar rally this morning and is up $8 to start our day… Silver has lost 16-cents to start the day…. Nothing amiss here…..  and no effect on the metals from the dollar strength is a good thing.  The price of Oil has bumped higher again overnight by a buck and trades this morning with a $70 handle…. And the 10-year’s yield has risen to 4.42% again….  The 10-year’s yield has been like a buoy in the water lately, bobbing in and out of the water…. It seems that every time the yield gets around where it is now, someone or some entity comes in a buys the heck of out the bond to bring the yield back down….  My thought here is the “some entity” is the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, not allowing yields to get away from them…. 

Well, looky here… Lola is telling everyone to diversify!  And you know what I’ve always said about Lola… What Lola wants, Lola gets….  For all of you new to class, I call Goldman Sachs, Lola….  I found this headline very interesting: “Investors should start diversifying their portfolios, Goldman Sachs says”

By diversifying, Lola is talking about buying investments for your portfolio that are different from your stocks and bonds… This is the first time I recall seeing a Big Casino Bank like Lola telling their clients to diversify…. 

I on the other hand have been telling investors to diversify for decades! I read and studied Markowitz’s Modern Portfolio Theory… I used to give talks to large crowds about diversification, and Markowitz’s theory, that talks about how risk-averse investors can build portfolios to maximize expected return based on a given level of risk.

And the further you diversified, the further out on the scale you went, and were protected by your diversification….. So, for once I tip my hat to Lola for telling their clients to diversify their investment portfolios…. 

The normal way to diversify, is to make sure you have some Gold & Silver as a part of your holdings…  Then you can be as varied as you want to be, by buying art, land, etc. 

And then you need to keep your diversification up to date….  Basically, you would hold up to 20% of metals…. Most of the time you’ll only hold 10-15% of metals, but when metals are kicking tail and taking names later, you’ll want to increase the percentage to 20%…. 

Not the discussion you thought you were going to be having today, eh?  It’s always good to pull Henry Markowitz our of the past and bring to today’s markets…. I used to show attendees of conferences who a stocks and bonds only portfolio how having a simple mix of euros, yen, and Swiss, and 20% in Gold and 20% in Silver enhanced their investment portfolio…. When stocks are strong like they are now, your currencies will not be performing well, but when the dollar changes direction, that’s when you’ll be glad you are diversified…. 

OK… Are we seeing the end of the road for MSNBC?   It was reported that MSNBC barely attracts 30,000 viewers on weekends…. Shoot Rudy, Wayne and Garth had more viewers for their imaginary cable show!  

I found this on Reuters.com: “Boeing will lay off more than 2,200 workers in the U.S. states of Washington and Oregon, according to filings posted on Monday, as part of the debt-heavy U.S. plane-maker’s plan to cut 17,000 jobs, or 10% of its global workforce.”  

Chuck again, looks like Boeing is looking forward to some rough time, eh? 

And I’ll finish this up this morning with a rant from Bill Bonner… After seeing USA Today print a headline:  “Trump inherits strongest economy in 50 years.”  

Here’s Bill: “Oh my. They’re tempting the gods. But Trump is not heir to a strong economy at all. He begins with a labor force that is struggling to keep up with inflation and the highest priced assets in history. And unlike Reagan, who came into office with an economy built on solid ground of low debt and low asset prices, Trump’s economy sits on the slopes of a rumbling volcano of debt ($36 trillion of government debt… $8 trillion of his own doing).  And on the slopes of this Vesuvius stands the whole U.S. capital structure — overpriced… over-extended… and overdue for a correction.”

Chuck again… Of course, USA Today could be talking about the stock market being the economy, of which they would be mistaken, and in error in thinking that way! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has nothing, zero, zilch, nada, nil, a big fat goose egg for us today… There will be 3 Fed Heads speaking today, so there’s that…. And yesterday, both Building permits and Housing Starts were slightly lower than the previous month… And the markets shrugged them off…

To recap… The dollar buying has stopped for two days so far this week…. Chuck’s thoughts last week, that the dollar was overbought, might be in play here…  The selling of the metals is over for now too, Gold & Silver have rallied two consecutive days… And Lola tells her clients to diversify….  And that lights a fire under Chuck! 

For What It’s Worth….  This article is somewhat related to what I’m always talking about…. Investors not preparing enough for retirement….  This is all averages, so it’s not like it’s this way for everyone in a state….  But gives you an idea of how difficult it will be for many to retire….  And it can be found here: How much Americans have saved for retirement in every U.S. state

Or, here’s your snippet: “When it comes to retirement savings, residents of one state are leading the pack: Massachusetts.

The average household retirement savings balance in Massachusetts is $448,500, according to an October study by DepositAccounts. That’s the largest amount out of all the states reviewed in the study.

The personal finance site analyzed data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2022 Survey of Income and Program Participation, the latest available, to determine the average amount households in each state have saved for retirement. The totals include balances of 401(k)s, IRAs, Keogh plans and thrift savings plans.

A couple of reasons may explain why Massachusetts residents have the highest average balances. At $80,330 a year, Massachusetts workers earn the highest average salaries in the U.S., according to a recent analysis by Empower.

On top of that, Massachusetts implemented the first state-level program to help workers outside of the corporate workforce grow their retirement savings. In 2017, the state launched its CORE program, which helps small nonprofit organizations offer 401(k) benefits to employees. As of May, over 200 organizations were enrolled in the program, per the state’s website.

On the other hand, Americans in Louisiana and Mississippi have the lowest average household retirement savings of $128,900 and $131,500, respectively. And Florida, a popular retirement destination, ranks 19th with average savings of $287,200.

But remember, while averages can provide an interesting snapshot of retirement data, they don’t always tell the whole story. The presence of a few high or low account balances can skew the results.”

Chuck again…. The article goes on to show the average amount of retirement savings each state’s residences have, so click the link above and check out your state! 

Market prices 11/20/2024: American Style: A$ .6501, kiwi .5878, C$ .7148, euro 1.0546, sterling 1.2663, Swiss 1.13, European Style: rand 18.1490, krone 11.0429, SEK 11.0062, forint 388.70, zloty 4.1131, koruna 24.0150, RUB 100.46, yen 155.72, sing 1.3429, HKD 7.7838, INR 84.41, China 7.2462, peso 20.24, BRL 5.7732, BBDXY 1,284.22, Dollar Index 106.62, Oil $70.12, 10-year 4.42%, Silver $31.12, Platinum $970.00, Palladium $1,031.00, Copper $4.20, and Gold…. $2,640.36

That’s it for today…. Well…. My beloved Mizzou Tigers were # 23 in the CFP ratings last night, nowhere close to the Top 12 that hey had their sights set on before the season… But, if the Tigers win their last two games, they’ll have a 9-3 season, and that’s not too bad! It’s better than a sharp stick to the eye, as my good friend, Frank Trotter, used to say…. Speaking of Frank, this week is attending the grandaddy of them all conferences, The New Orleans Investment Conf. I used to speak at that conference! I love NOLA, And people that know their way around the quarter, are always fun to be with! So, if you’re going to NOLA, tell Frank, I said hi!   Jack Jezzro and his Bossa Nova sound, take us to the finish line today with his version of the song: O Christmas Tree…. I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler