- Currencies and metals get sold overnight
- Gen Zer’s Are duds…
Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well congratulations to the Ravens, 49er’s, lions, and Chiefs, for their playoff game wins, now we’re down to 4 teams… two games this weekend will decide who goes to the Super Bowl… My take is that the 49er’s and the Ravens will be the Super Bowl teams… I’m not a betting man, but those are my picks… These two have been the best teams all year, so it makes sense to me that they end up in the Super Bowl. I’ll be here all by myself for the Super Bowl… Won’t be the first time, and probably not the last time either! Our Blues stopped their 3-game losing streak with a shut-out win Saturday night. This team needs to get on their horse and ride it, until the end of the year! The Little River Bank greets me this morning with their song: Cool Change…
Well, the dollar seemed to be stuck in the mud on Thursday and Friday last week, as the BBDXY ended the week at 1,238, the same price it had at Thursday’s open… The dollar, like Gold, was searching for a reason to buy it… In Gold’s case there is a reason, it’s just that most people don’t see it… With the dollar, who got a lot of love from the idea that interest rates won’t be cut as early as the markets had priced in, is now looking for something else to move it higher, and if it fails to find something soon, it will see selling, as I’ve explained in the past, traders will attempt to move something higher, and in failing to do so, will just give up the ghost and sell…
Gold was bought on Thursday (by $17.50), and Friday (by $6.80) to end the week at $2,050.60… Whew! is what I was saying on Friday, because on Wednesday morning, Gold was at $2,006… And according to the charts, if Gold gave up the $2,000 figure it would be in decline… And we can’t have that, can we? I know, I know, it is what it is, and Gold’s price is not important in a day-to-day situation… Over the long haul, is where the BIG moves are… Silver was up 19-cents on Thursday and down 12-cents on Friday… The short paper traders just won’t let Silver off the hook, they’re at Silver every single day!
The price of Oil ended the week trading with a $73 handle… The U.S. is not putting up with any B.S. from the folks shooting rockets at ships in the Red Sea…. And this has an ugly chance of things escalating… I certainly hope not! But, if they do, expect the price of Oil to move higher, along with Gold… The 10-year’s yield continued to climb late last week, and ended the week with a 4.13% yield… Last Monday morning the 10-year’s yield was 3.94%… So, that’s a quick move higher for bonds… I’m just saying..
In the overnight markets last night… The dollar saw some selling overnight, but so did Gold, and bonds aren’t getting bought either, something strange is going on this morning, and I can’t put my finger on it right now… The BBDXY has lost 4 index points from where it ended trading on Friday. Gold has lost $24 overnight, and Silver has lost 19-cents, The 10—year’s yield has risen to 4.10%, thus indicating that bonds are getting sold. The deep dive of stocks in China are starting to spread, folks… So, I guess we had better batten down the hatches, until this all blows over, and when it does, that will be the time to pick up some cheaper asset classes… Man, I hate to have to tell you to do that, but, what else is there? The dollar, bonds, metals, stocks are all getting sold… UGH!
The price of Oil remained trading with a $73 handle overnight, and the reports this morning say the problems in the Red Sea are going to remain for some time to come, and that’s a sign that the price of Oil will not fall from present levels… Ok, I said it’s a “sign”… There’s no guarantee that it will go higher, and not fall… Just a “sign”… Sort like the Stop sign in front of my house back home, it’s taken as a suggestion, not a hard stop!
Bonds are back to getting sold, thus proving what I said about them when they were getting bought like funnel cakes at a State Fair… “This is a bear market rally, nothing more”… The bond boys have taken the new Mantra that Interest Rates are staying higher, longer, to heart.. These guys and gals (the bond boys) are fickle folks, and they aren’t easily swayed… It takes a strong push to get them to move in one direction… And that’s that! The 10-year this morning is 4.10%…
Well, you know most letter writers that talk about the economies, markets, etc. start the new year with their personal forecasts for the coming year… If they are from the Casino Banks/ Brokerages they’ll concentrate on the stock market, and talk about how they see stocks soaring in 2024… If they are independent, like me, they concentrate on economies, and dolts… And with that, you’ll not get any stock info from me! But as far, as economies are concerned, I’m your man! And that brings me to something that I’ve been talking about for some time now, and that is how Russia, China, Iran, India, etc. are moving away from Swift, and transacting all of their trade though their own system, thus exchanging each countries’ currencies, and not dollars…
I know, most people in the U.S. have no idea that this is going on, and that’s a shame, a real shame, that they can’t write their representatives and tell them to change things quickly before they go to hell in a hand basket! You see, I see this coming to a head in 2024… The U.S. and our allies, VS the BRICS and everyone else that get coerced into getting out of dollars… (The Stans, and the likes) I know, I’m being Mr. Sunshine again this morning… So, I’ll leave this for another day now, and move on…
The other thing that most people in this country have no ideas about is the push for a digital dollar… No more folding currency in your pocket… I’m sure, right now, the propeller heads are attempting to figure out how to change all loan and lease agreements that state that they must be paid in dollars… They’ll come up with some wording that makes it all work, you can guarantee that! I have to say that I thought that presidential candidate, Trump, said something that will really help him, when he said that there’s no way he would allow a digital dollar… OK, that was a bout as far as I’ll go with any political stuff…
It was reported last week that China had seen growth at 5.25%… I told you all years ago, that we should only believe half of what the Chinese report… So, given that their growth would be 2.625%, and to me that sounds about right, given what I’ve seen so far… I also want to mention here that the Chinese renminbi has been getting marked down daily for the last couple of weeks… I doubt the Chinese leaders would allow that to happen if the economy was really growing at 5.25%! You need a strong currency to fight inflation, and since the Chinese have been at this, eons longer than anyone else, they know this to be true… So, see how this all comes together? The GDP is weaker than reported, and that’s why the renminbi is weaker… I’m just saying…
Getting away from dire stuff for a moment… Bloomberg.com had this great story this morning about how the U.S. economy is turning into an extrovert… Let’s listen in; “One other way the pandemic altered America: It has created what might be called the Introvert Economy. The time at home made Americans less fun. 2023 was a year for daytime office holiday parties, after all, and in general Americans are going out less.1 And odds are it will stick: It is the youngest adults who are going out less, and when they do go out, it is earlier.”
The article goes on to say that the younger generation (Z) doesn’t drink very much socially… But older Americans still drink a lot socially! That’s me! We know how to go out and have fun, and the younger folks, don’t have a clue! I was at a Christmas party for our subdivision this past Dec. and by 9 pm all the young couples had gone home! Wait! What? Yes, at the end of the night it was only the older folks still partying… I feel sorry for the younger folks, they won’t know the fun of being out late with friends, and having a good time… Oh, well, I won’t lose any sleep over that, because that’s their problem, not mine!
The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week had another regional Manufacturing index for this, following up on the Empire negative -43 print earlier in the week, the Philly Fed Manufacturing index printed a negative -10.6 for this month, and that followed December’s -12 print…
This morning, the Data Cupboard has the Leading Indicators for December… Just a reminder that this report has been in a negative area that indicates a recession is coming, for 18 months! And December’s print doesn’t change things at all, at least that’s how I see it…
To recap… The dollar drifted late last week, and then got sold overnight… Gold got bought late last week, but got sold overnight, see a pattern here? Chuck thinks we need to batten down the hatches until this blows over… Bonds are getting sold again, and China’s deep dive in stocks is spreading around the world… There’s going to be another print of Leading Indicators today… Chuck doesn’t think they’ll be any change to the report, it’ll remain negative…
For What It’s Worth… Well, I saw this in Ed Steer’s letter on Saturday, and knew Immediately that it was FWIW worthy… This is the head of the Heritage Foundation (of which I belong to) speaking at Davos… And it can be found here: Watch: “You Are The Problem” – Conservative Speaker Slams Davos Globalists To Their Faces | ZeroHedge
Or, here’s your snippet: “Kevin Roberts, President of the conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation, spoke to globalists at the World Economic Forum confab Thursday and told them directly that “You are part of the problem, you are not the solution.”
During a discussion titled “What to Expect from a Possible Republican Administration,” Roberts let rip on the elitists.
“I will be candid,” Roberts began, adding “the agenda that every single person member of the [future Republican] administration needs to have, is to compile a list of everything that’s ever been proposed at the [WEF], and object all of them wholesale.”
He further urged that “anyone not prepared to do that, and take away this power of the unelected bureaucrats and give it back to the American people, is unprepared to be a part of the next conservative administration.”
When the discussion turned to Donald Trump, Roberts told the host of the panel, Sir Robin Niblett, ‘Distinguished Fellow’ of Chatham House, that “It’s laughable that you or anyone would describe Davos as protecting liberal democracy,” adding “It’s equally laughable to use the word ‘dictatorship’ at Davos and aim that at President Trump… I think that’s absurd.”
He continued, “The very reason I’m here at Davos, is to explain to many people in this room and who are watching, with all due respect – nothing personal – that you are part of the problem.”
“Political elites tell the average people… that the reality is ‘x,’ when in fact, reality is ‘y,’” Roberts further declared, going on to give several examples with regards to open borders, immigration, gender issues, and the constant guilt trip elites subject everyday people to over the “existential threat” of climate change, while they hypocritically fly around in private jets.”
Chuck again… Well, that was a start Kevin… the problem is that your words probably fell on deaf ears… I sure hope not, but the reality is, this whole change is in motion, and like a ship at sea, it will take some time to change direction… I’m just saying…
Market Prices 1/22/2024: American Style: A$.6590, kiwi .6226, C$ .7452, euro 1.0890, sterling 1.2715, Swiss $1.1516, European Style: rand 19.1328, krone 10.5032, SEK 10.4385, forint 351.19, zloty 4.0025, koruna 22.7374, RUB 87.96, yen 147.90, sing 1.3414, HKD 7.1954, INR 83.03, China 7.1954, peso 17.07, BRL 4.9289, BBDXY 1,234.91, Dollar Index 103.23, Oil $73.72, 10-year 4.10%, Silver $22.19, Platinum $897.00, Palladium $921.00, Copper $3.77, and Gold… $2,026.24
That’s it for today… Well, good friend, Frank Trotter announced this past weekend that his new online Bank, Battle Bank, has received their approval from the FDIC… As I understand it, that was the last hurdle, regulator wise, to clear… So, Congratulations, Frank! As I’ve told you before, Battle Bank is now distributing the Pfennig each day, so in essence, Frank & Chuck are back together! (Well, sorta!) Hopefully, all the hoops that Battle Banks tech people had to jump through will come to an end, and they can, for sure, begin to distribute the letter… Until that time, you’ll have to go to: www.dailypfennig.com to read it each day… UGH! It’s not an easy thing to do, these days, with all the fake stuff going on, one has to verify that the person receiving the email letter actually wants to receive it, and where they are! It’s all strange to me, but thems the rules, and we have to abide by them! The Cure, takes us to the finish line today with their song that’s been copied a few times by other bands: Lovesong… I know one read that I used to work with that simply adores the Cure… (right Laura?) I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please, oh please, try to Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler