- It’s all about the dollar these days…
- China is back from their weeklong holiday…
Good Day… And a tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! You’ll have to excuse me from participating in any Tub Thumpin’, folks… One thought I had about the last week, while I was in the hospital… Is that, I feel like I’m way too young to have these problems! But, then I think about my age, and next March, I’ll turn 70! I met a doctor in the hospital for the first time who was absolutely amazed that I was still kicking it, after my cancer diagnosis 18 years ago! He said, “Who lives 18 years with metastatic renal cell carcinoma?” This guy! Supertramp greets me this morning with their song: Take The Long Way Home…
Ok, so do you want to know what my major problems are? If not, simply go down 2 paragraphs, where the markets talk begins… It’s all about cancer and chemo… You see, the chemo that I was taking, caused my body to retain water, and before I knew it, I had gained 40 pounds… I also have fluid around my heart, that is very disturbing to me… It will have to be gotten rid of either by medicine or with very risky surgery… That fluid is causing my breathing and blood oxygen to plummet… So, I now have a oxygen tank following me everywhere I go… UGH!… So, the jury is still out on how the medicine will do as far as removing the fluid…
OK, I talked about how the chemo I was taking caused all this water/ fluid buildup… So, why not stop taking the chemo? And I did… But the problem in the weeds here is that this chemo was the very last chemo that is directed at kidney cancer that is out there… I’ve taken them all in 18 years, as there is no one out there that thought anyone would still be alive to take chemo after 18 years… So, now the tumor in my mouth, without taking anything to stop its growth, is growing quickly… So, now I’m going to have to have it degrowthed, with surgery… This is a recurring trend isn’t it? So, there are my two health problems in a nutshell… I really don’t know how I’ll be able to get through all this, and still dedicate my time to writing the Pfennig… But, I’ll carry on, my wayward son, (Kansas) despite my short-comings…
Ok… What on earth has gone on in my absence? The dollar was teetering on the edge of the cliff, and now it’s soaring once again… What changed? Well, first, we had the PPT enter the markets and buy dollars once again, and that put a tourniquet around the bleeding dollar, and since then, everything I read is about how the markets don’t believe the Fed Heads about cutting rates more this year…
The currencies have all been returned to their respective sick beds… Even the currencies with higher interest rates than the dollar… The Petrol Currencies, sans the ruble, are holding their ground VS the dollar, but that’s only a consolation… The price of Oil has recovered nicely, and trades with a $75 handle… And all those people that bought the 10-year Treasury thinking that it would continue to rally with the thought that the Fed Heads were in a rate cutting cycle, have BIG losses as the 10-year’s yield is up to 4.05%…. Just two weeks ago, after the Fed cut rates 50 Basis Points, the 10-year’s yield dropped to 3.68%… When I used to trade bonds, I could calculate the loss in bond price from a move in yields like that… But that talent escaped me long ago…. Just trust me on this, that’s a BIG loss for those bond holders, should they panic and attempt to get out of the bond… I’m just saying…
And Gold & Silver have seen their gains chopped down by the short paper traders… The two metals have seen days where they rally, only to be squashed by the short paper traders the next day… Monday, was one of those days where the metals rallied… Now, if the trend continues, they’ll get sold on Tuesday, and that’s exactly what happened… UGH! The demand for physical Gold is still strong, and that’s the reason the short paper traders are in the markets daily…
In the overnight markets last night… Well the dollar bugs have all shut down until they see the color of the STUPID CPI today… The BBDXY is flat this morning at 1,244… Gold and Silver have clocked in on a day when they get bought… Gold is up $5 and silver i up 9-cent to start the day today… I have a quote for you from Ed Steer’s letter this morning… Here’s Ed: “s I keep saying — and you should already know by now, precious metal prices in particular — and all commodity prices in general would be eye-popping values if the commercial traders of whatever stripe weren’t watching over them 24/7.” Ed can be found www.edsteergoldsliver.com
Remember after Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chairman, Jerome Powell, announced that the Fed Heads has voted to cut rates 50 Basis Points, and I said, ” The last time the Fed Heads cut rates 50 Basis Point, was in the middle of the Great Financial Crises., so is that what we have to look forward to? Or… Was this just the Fed Heads kowtowing to their masters, Wall Street? I would have to believe that this was the latter of the two… And was more political than anything else.”
Well, it seems that thought that it was a political move is really catching on… Here’s a headline news story that came my way, “Breitbart Business Digest: The Fed’s 50 Basis Point Cut Was a Mistake Driven by Political Pressure” if you want to read the article it can be found here: Breitbart Business Digest: The Fed’s 50 Basis Point Cut Was a Mistake Driven by Political Pressure
The European Central Bank (ECB ) cut rates at their last meeting, and is being thought of as in a rate cut cycle, so that means that more rate cuts will come… And that won’t help the euro… Another thing that I saw the other day was that Physical Gold had replaced the euro as the number 2 reserve of Central Banks around the world… Yet, another chink in the armor of the euro… I’m just saying… But remember, as the offset to the dollar, the euro has proven through the years, that it can rally when the dollar is getting sold, no matter what the economic fundamentals show in the eurozone…..
The folks over at The Motley Fool, pointed out last week that Money Supply is growing again in 2024… Uh-Oh! Money Supply equals inflation… I’ll go to my grave saying those words… In fact maybe I can get Kathy to put that on my grave marker…. This growth of money supply is the reason that I think the Fed Heads’ thought that they have defeated inflation is a pipe dream…
And the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC didn’t wait too long after returning from their weeklong holiday to allow the renminbi to gain a lot VS the dollar, thus making up for their time away… The renminbi is trading this morning with a 7.07 handle…
The U.S. Data Cupboard Tuesday had nothing but Fed Head speakers… Tons of them! Maybe one of these knuckleheads said something that made sense…. Maybe…. Yesterday, there were more Fed Head speakers, so they get another chance to say something profound! In addition, we’ll see the color of the STUPID CPI for Sept…. This ought to be special as the church lady used to say… I don’t trust any Gov’t report any longer, as all of them are being revised to show favorable results for the administration…. I just say, take them with only a few grains of salt, my dear reader friends…
Unfortunately, the markets don’t view it logically like I do… They’ll take whatever number the Gov’t prints for the STUPID CPI as the gospel, and run with it…
To recap… the dollar is in a completely different pace than it was before Chuck left for the hospital last week… More intervention caused the change in the seasons for the dollar, and since then, it’s been all about how the markets are not fully behind the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel regarding their call for more rate cuts… Chairman, Powell, tried to let the markets down softly, the other day by telling them that the Fed Heads are NOT in any hurry to cut rates…. And the metals take one step forward and two steps backward in trading…
For What It’s Worth… Well, like I said above, the demand for physical Gold is still strong, and here’s some proof in the pudding for that statement… The article can be found here: Costco Gold Bars Are Selling Out Even As Prices Surge, Survey Finds | ZeroHedge
Or, here’s your snippet: “Costco shoppers are purchasing the store’s 1-ounce gold bars at a high rate despite the precious metal’s record-high prices in recent months, according to a recent survey.
Around 77 percent of Costco outlets that sell bullion bars were sold out in the first week of October, a Bloomberg survey found.
The news outlet and financial services company said it surveyed 101 stores in 46 states that sell gold and recently restocked the precious metal.
The apparently high number of sales comes even as gold prices have surged in the past year or so. In the past 12 months, gold is up about 41 percent, going from around $1,864 per ounce to $2,640 per ounce.
According to data provided by the American Precious Metals Exchange (APMEX), the spot price for gold hit a record $2,686 per ounce on Sept. 26.
Costco started selling the 1-ounce gold bars in late 2023 in its stores and via its website, available only to members.
Since then, the company has started selling silver coins and now platinum bars and coins.
Wells Fargo in April estimated that the big-box retailer is selling up to $200 million in gold per month.
“Our work suggests there has been significant interest given Costco’s aggressive pricing and high level of customer trust,” Edward Kelly, an analyst with Wells Fargo, wrote in a note to clients at the time.
“The accelerating frequency of Reddit posts, quick online sell-outs of product, and [Costco’s] robust monthly [ecommerce] sales suggests a sharp uptick in momentum since the launch,” he added.
Meanwhile, Costco Chief Financial Officer Gary Millerchip told Bloomberg that gold and silver are a “meaningful part” of the company’s growth, adding that Costco is happy to have the capacity to offer those products.”
Chuck again… Think about this for a moment… Costco is a bulk items business, at sometimes discount price, which pretty much describes the clientele… Nothing wrong with that, my wife, is a member! The point I’m trying to make here is that these are different kinds of buyers, that don’t appear to be frightened by the high price of Gold… I’m just saying, for all of you out there that have still got to increase your investment portfolio allocation to metals…
Market Prices 10/10/ 2024: American Style: A$ .6715, kiwi .6072, C$ .7271, euro 1.0933, sterling 1.3011, Swiss $1.1633, European Style: rand 17.5990, krone 10.7840, SEK 10.3962, forint 366.29, zloty 3.9381, koruna 23.7650, RUB 97.44, yen 149.00, sing 1.3083, HKD 7.7717, INR 83.87, China 7.0774, peso 19.48, BRL 5.5931, BBDXY 1,244.67, Dollar Index 102.96, Oil $74.13 10-year 4.09%, Silver $30.59, Platinum $956.00, Palladium $ 1,048.00, Copper $4.38, and Gold… $2,612.80
That’s it for today… Well, I really did want to write yesterday, but I couldn’t answer the bell in the morning… And by the time I did awake, the markets were going full swing… So I wouldn’t have been able to give you any foresight to make a markets decision… thinking back to the last week… My poor arms and hands, from al the needle sticks into them… OUCH! If I had been in a car wreck and the paramedics looked at my arms they would think I was a drug addict! I had some great nurses last week, Becky, and Lauren were the best! I’ll be sure to mention that when they send my survey! What the hell was that from my beloved Mizzou Tigers last week? I told them that they couldn’t come out flat in SEC games, and they did’t listen! And now a team that was well thought of in August, is out of the College playoffs picture… There’s still time to get back into the picture, but there has to be a change in this team’s intestinal fortitude…. I’m just saying…. Steely Dan takes us to the finish line today with their great 70’s song: Rikki Don’t Lose That Number… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today… And that you will Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler