- Currencies and metals get sold on Tuesday
- Throwing the dollar a life line…
Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, I got through Monday and Tuesday and now I wait to see if I have a problem… My scans on Monday got postponed to this weekend, as the prep for the scope on Tuesday was interfering… it was a rainy day yesterday, although I didi get out side to read right after coming home from the hospital… You’ve got to deal with the rain to enjoy the sunshine! Golden Earring greets me this morning with their great song: Twilight Zone…
The war continues, so.. The dollar gained both on Monday and Tuesday with the BBDXY gaining 2 points each day… I continue to say that this isn’t the way the asset classes should trade.. With the dollar being bought and metals getting sold… But it is what it is…
The price of Gold got sold $1.12 to end the day at $4,596, and Silver got sold $2.46 to end the day at $73.10.. I read a report the other day where the writer was saying that “Gold isn’t dead, it’s just being sold after over a 50% rise in the last year”… Well, that might settle down some people, but not me! I just don’t see why Gold is being treated like this… But the SPTs don’t make this any easier for Gold & Silver that’s for sure!
The price of Oil ventured over $100 for a brief time yesterday before settling back at $99… Very close to $100, but not $100… I can see the PPT working their magic… Oh, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield bumped higher to end the day at 4.35% yield…
In the overnight markets last night… the war goes on, so does the dollar… The BBDXY gained 1 index point overnight, and starts today at 1,198… UGH! I wanted to mention the dollar swaps that Treasury Sec. Bessent announced yesterday… This is a nothing more than attempt to throw a life saver ring to the dollar and return wide distribution of the dollar… Good luck with that Treasury Sec.!
Gold & Silver see more selling this morning… I just don’t get it.. Gold & Silver should be roaring right now, with inflation rising and geopolitical problems by the bushelful… But that’s not happening… I have something for you on Gold & Silver in the FWIW section this morning, so be patient young Jedi, you’ll get there eventually…
The price of Oil has risen above $100 again this morning and is trading at $103 to start the day… And the 10-year Treasury bumped higher to trade with a 4.36% yield this morning…
Longtime reader will recall me saying that I enjoy reading Ray Dalio… He’s written a book that I’ve read about the history of trends, markets etc. and it’s good! Well, he had this to say yesterday, “Let’s not be naive, ok, and say: Oh, we’re breaking the rule-based system,” Dalio said in an interview with Fortune at the WEF (1). “It’s gone. It’s going.”
Dalio was referring to the current global balance of power between nations, which has hinged on relatively predictable U.S. foreign policy.”
Chuck Again…. Ray Dalio goes on to tell readers that in times like this now, that investors should be buying Gold… Yea, I agree… But we can lead a horst to water but not make him drink it!
Bill Bonner was wondering yesterday in his letter, why hasn’t the stock market bubble popped yet? Here’s Bill… “By almost all measures, US asset prices are in a bubble. Based on Cyclically Adjusted P/E ratios, for example, the S&P 500 has been this high only one time in history — at the height of the Dot.com bubble. But back then, things were looking up. The US was not at war…and the feds were actually running a budget surplus.”
Chuck again… I say it all the time… this stock market is crazy! But, its rally lives on, and on and on… Is this an everlasting Bubble? It certainly looks like it could be…. (I figure that since I said that I jinxed stocks, so we’ll see…)
The FOMC meets today to discuss interest rates… What to do, what to do? Inflation is rising, but the White House wants lower interest rates, so much so they nominated the POTUS’s friend to chair the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel and influence the rate decisions… I afraid that the FOMC will leave rates unchanged again and rile the POTUS and the markets that are looking for a rate cut…. But a rate cut is not in the cards… Not with inflation rising and the future of inflation unknown at this time, because of the war, I just don’t see the FOMC cutting rates right now…
That won’t be good for Gold & Silver… but then higher rates would certainly give the naysayers the food they need to sell metals… I’m just saying… Not that the metals can’t rally in high interest rates (remember the 70’s?) it just makes things more difficult…
The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the March Durable Goods Orders, and they are expected to recover April’s negative -1.4% print… So, we’ll see how good the forecasters are… Or, would they be in the same arena with the folks that forecast the weather? There are some housing reports, but I normally don’t get into those too much…
But nothing is more important to the markets than the FOMC meeting… Of course, I don’t feel like the FOMC is worth a plug nickel, but that doesn’t stop the markets from genuflecting over them!
In other countries… Greece is no longer the most in debt Country in Europe… Word came last week that Greek debt is estimated to decline to around 137% of gross domestic product this year from 145.9% in 2025, two senior officials told Reuters. By contrast, Italy expects its debt to peak at 138.6% in 2026, up 1.5 percentage points from 137.1% of GDP in 2025, under the Treasury’s multi-year budget plan published this week. That makes Italy the most indebted country in Europe!
Remember when the talk about currencies was all about the PIGS? That stood for Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain… Spain isn’t far behind Italy and Greece at this point with regards to indebtedness…. To these countries, it was Godsend when the Eurozone came along…. And made everyone look at the Whole of the Eurozone instead of individual countries… I recall when I had to know the economics of each individual country to trade their respective currencies… Those were the days my friend, we thought they’d never end; we’d sing forever and a day… No! Wait! Why’d you go there, Chuck?
The Bank of England (BOE) will meet tomorrow and the thoughts sifting through the newswires is that the BOE will leave rates unchanged as they wait to see the possible effects of the Iran War.
And the European Central Bank (ECB) will also meet on Thursday with the ECB leaving rates unchanged for the same reason as the BOE…
To recap… The dollar is getting bought as the war continues… Gold is getting sold for the same reason… And the STPs are ganging up on Gold & Silver’s weakness… Lots of Central Bank rate meeting on the docket this week… More like a tempest in a teacup… But the markets being the markets, they treat it like wreck of the Hindenburg!
For What It’s Worth… As usual, the FWIW articles are taking a back seat to the articles on the War and Energy problems, but I did find this little ditty on the out look for Gold & Silver, that is not a bright spot, but tells it like it is and can be found here: ‘Gold remains the strategic allocation, while silver remains the tactical opportunity’ – Saxo Bank’s Hansen | Kitco News
Or, here’s your snippet: ” Oil-led inflation risks, not geopolitics, are driving near-term weakness in precious metals, and while gold’s pullback looks cyclical rather than structural, silver’s vulnerability to industrial demand and investment flows makes it more fragile, according to Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank.
Hansen noted that “rising energy prices, a stronger dollar, firmer inflation expectations and a renewed higher-for-longer view on US interest rates have together created a more challenging short-term environment for non-yielding assets,” which have driven gold prices to a three-week low.
“With Brent crude climbing above USD 111, the market’s focus remains squarely on the inflationary impact of higher energy costs at a time when AI-driven investment spending continues to support US growth, thereby reducing the Federal Reserve’s need to cut rates for now,” he said. “Adding to the near-term uncertainty, four of the Magnificent Seven report earnings on Wednesday, the same day the FOMC meets to assess the economic outlook.”
Hansen said the metals’ direction will be dictated by the energy market for the time being, and he pointed to the potential reopening of the Strait and the subsequent drop in oil prices as “the biggest short term upside catalyst for the metals.”
He wrote that skyrocketing oil prices and rising inflation are strengthening the dollar and delaying rate cuts. “However, while the conflict has become a near-term hurdle, it does not represent a roadblock,” he said. “The structural drivers that powered gold’s rally over the past two years remain firmly in place and, in several cases, have strengthened.”
Chuck Again… yes, it’s the same war= dollar strength, Gold weakness mantra… But I like the part about the structural drivers still being in place… That’s something to hang my hat on!
Market Prices 4/29/2026: American Style: A$ .7158, kiwi .5858, C$ .7308, euro 1.1706, sterling 1.3509, Swiss $1.2672, European Style: rand 16.5919, krone 9.2868, SEK 9.2656, forint 311.11, zloty 3.6324, koruna 20.8227, RUB 75.01, yen 159.34, sing 1.2775, HKD 7.8366, INR 94.55, China 6.8335, peso 17.39, BRL 4.9741, BBDXY 1,198, Dollar Index 98.69, Oil $103.39, 10-year 4.36%, Silver $71.91, Platinum $1,919.00, Palladium $1,475, Copper $5.97, and Gold… $4,571
That’s it for today… Well, it certainly hasn’t been a week of sunshine and seashells for yours truly, but I’m still here so there’s that! Well, I’m not leaking blood from any place in my body, so now the doctor is at a loss as to why I became so anemic, and now I’m not… I mean it was so bad that I couldn’t walk to the bathroom without feeling like I was ready to collapse! But now… no problemo! And I think baseball is strange… my body is strange! My beloved Cardinals won in Pittsburgh last night… They hit the ball! Sure, makes a difference when you hit! Chicago takes us to the finish line today with their song: I’m A Man… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler