- currencies and metals rally on Friday
- to many “unknowns” in the markets
Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! I know, I know I said on Thursday last week that there would be no Pfennig today and tomorrow… Well, I had forgotten to look at my calendar at the time I was supposed to show up at the hospital, and when I found out it wasn’t the first scan of the day, like usual, I knew I would be able to write to you this morning… No lucking out tomorrow, as I’m still scheduled for a scope first thing… Booker G. And the MGs greet me this morning with their instrumental son: Green Onions…
What a glorious weekend here in my river city… It was true Chamber of Commerce weather all weekend and was outside all weekend! The Strait of Hormuz is still closed thus shutting out 20% of Global Oil shipments along with shipments of fertilizer and Sulfuric Acid… And as long as the Strait is closed, the war will continue, and that means more dollar strength and Gold weakness…
The dollar closed last Friday at 1,196 in the BBDXY, which was just a smidgen lower than it closed on Thursday… Gold & Silver found a bid, not a real strong one, but a bid nonetheless… Gold finished last week up $17 to close the week at $4,708… Silver finished last week up a whopping 25-cents to close the week @ $75.56…
The price of Oil closed up for the week at $95, but the “wet price” of deliverable Oil is really about $150-$200… I’m still wondering how much longer the difference between the paper price and the “wet price” can continue on….
And the 10-year Treasury saw its yield blip upward on Friday and ended the week with 4.32% yield.
In the overnight markets last night… in a twist of things going on… The dollar got sold overnight….What the heck is going on here? Oh well, it Is what it is. The BBDXY starts our day/ week at 1,193… The price of Oil remained trading with a $95 handle overnight, and the 10-year saw a slip of 1 BP to start our day/ week with a 4.31% yield…
Gold starts the day down $1 buck… Silver starts up 34-cents… So, the Gold down mark is easily turned around, and should as the day goes on , if… if the dollar continues to weaken from the overnight markets…
Well… recall about 10 days ago, when I told you that the Consumer Sentiment had a preliminary report for April that showed a deep dive in the Sentiment? Well, the final report finally hit the wires on Friday and came in a bit better and Yahoo Finance.com had this to say about the report: “The University of Michigan’s final April sentiment index dropped to 49.8 this month from 53.3 in March. While that was slightly improved from the preliminary reading, it remained the lowest in data back to 1978.”
Chuck again.. My friend, Dennis Miller, sent me an email on Friday that referenced an article about DXY, and how the writer of the article said that it was not good and needed to be repaired… Well, as you might recall, that’s what I told you a few years ago when I started using the BBDXY as my index to see how the dollar was doing…
The BBDXY is a group of countries that are the best trading partners of the U.S. and unlike the DXY, THE BBDXY isn’t dominated by the euro, nor does it exclude countries like China and Mexico as the DXY does…
Ok… I keep thinking that the SPTs are fading away… But no such luck, eh? Well, they are fading but not away right now… The shorts in Silver at 100 days of production held by the SPTs… And the shorts in Gold are down to 52 days of production… For longtime readers they might recall me telling them that at one time the number 180 for Silver and over 80 for Gold… So, they are fading away… Just not fast enough for me!
There’s not much to talk about regarding the currencies, and they are being moved by the dollar and the goings on in the Gulf… Like I’ve said on numerous occasions: War and Strait Closed= dollar strength, and Peace and Strait Open= dollar weakness, Gold strength….
And we’ve got War and Strait Closed at this moment, and so we know that the dollar will be stronger… So, don’t abandon your portfolio diversification or you Gold Holdings… This will eventually come to an end (the war) and when it does, the dollar will return to the underly weak trend, and Gold will climb higher once again…
But, the longer it goes on, and it will go on longer than most think, the more you’ll have to batten down the hatches…
We’ve also got a FOMC Meeting this week on Wednesday… Yes, the Fed/Cabal/ Cartel will meet and discuss interest rates, which everyone and their brother think that they will remain at current levels… I saw where people are swallowing the line about how Gold will weaken if interest rates dont’ get lowered… Yep, they are swallowing that hook, line and sinker…
What’s a FOMC going to do? They are backed into a corner, and there’s no way out of this mess for them… So, they’ll just remain Steady Eddie with rates and see where everything falls out or into… There are just too many “unknowns” out there with the war and everything else that banks and hedge funds, etal, are in a “risk off” mentality, and I doubt anything is going to move the needle here until… Oh, you almost had me reveal what I think is going to move the needle… But, I really don’t have an answer for you… end the war, bring everyone home and start to rebuild your arsenal… That’s the only thing I can think of that would move the needle…
The U.S. Data Cupboard ended the last week on empty, and starts this week on empty… Tomorrow, we’ll actually see some real economic data so, get ready for The Feb Case/Shiller Home price index and the March Durable Goods Orders come on Wednesday… I’ll be back on Wednesday with a brand-new Pfennig!
To Recap… The dollar ended the week on a down note, but just by a smidgen. Gold ended the week up $17 and Silver up 25-centw… The war continues on, so Chuck thinks that we had better batten down the hatches and wait for the Good Witch Glinda to tell us that it’s all clear…
For What It’s Worth… Well, with every writing about the war and all the other stuff involved with it, there aren’t many FWIW articles out there… I did fine this one on Zerohedge.com it’s about the U.S. Defaults in the past and how they will repeat themselves now, and it can be found here: 39 Going On 40 (Trillion) | ZeroHedge
Or, here’s your snippet: ” A little over two weeks ago, on April 7th, the U.S. national debt crossed $39 trillion. Since then, another $150 billion has already been added to the ledger. While major news outlets missed the milestone, every trillion is worthy of mention.
America is now $39,000,000,000,000 in debt—yes, $39 trillion. It took roughly 200 years to accumulate the first $1 trillion. Now we add that in a matter of months… Compounding the problem, we now spend more than $1 trillion a year just on interest to service our debt—more than the entire defense budget.
Almost three years ago, I wrote about the U.S. debt crossing the $32 trillion and $33 trillion marks. If there’s one economic projection to stand by, it’s this: within the next several months, the $40 trillion debt level will be breached.
Looking back at the last 200 years, or even the last three, it becomes clear that debt growth is not linear; the curve is moving up exponentially.
While the future is always uncertain, the trajectory is unmistakable.
One reason stands above the rest: the interest on the debt itself.
For context, net interest outlays were equivalent to 22.1% of total revenues through Q1 of FY 2026. Even if the national debt were frozen at $39 trillion today, the interest payments alone would be staggering. With the 10-year Treasury yield hovering between 4% and 4.5% at the time of writing, and annual interest surpassing $1 trillion, solvency should be a real concern.
Naturally, one might argue that with a Federal Reserve, solvency is not a concern. However, that’s the crux of the matter. America technically won’t become insolvent thanks to the Fed’s ability to create money (literally) out of thin air, and so, the final outcome is certain. Expanding debt and the accompanying expansion of the money supply are features of the system. History shows that monetary inflation, currency debasement, and the eventual crack-up boom are the recurring final outcomes.”
Chuck Again… I thank James Turk for his thoughts on our debt situation…
Market Prices 4/27/2026: American Style: A$ .7157, kiwi .5913, C$ .7348, euro 1.1748, sterling 1.3567, Swiss $1.2753, European Style: rand 16.4747, krone 9.2733, SEK 9.1875, forint 309.16, zloty 3.6135, koruna 20.7262, RUB 74.95, yen 159.15, sing 1.2730, HKD 7.8371, INR 94.19, China 6.8218, peso 17.35, BRL 4.9813, BBDXY 1,193, Dollar Index 98.82, Oil $95.37, 10-year 4.31%, Silver $75.95, Platinum $2,035.00, Palladium $1,504.00, Copper $6.10, and Gold… $4,795
That’s it for today… I have to say that this past weekend was the best weather we’ve had in Month of Sundays! It was spectacular! My beloved Cardinals got swept a home last weekend… The games were close and could have been a sweep by the home team! But that was not to be… baseball… Now they travel to Pittsburgh for our first look at the Pirates… Well, I’m in the hands of the doctors at the hospital the next two days…. I sure hope they treat me nicely! HA! The Rolling Stones take us to the finish line today with their song: Dead Flowers…. I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler