- the dollar gets sold on Wednesday…
- The Chinese want a financial war with the dollar
Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin Thursday to one and all! One of these days outlook will accept that I call today a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday, as it tells me each week that I spelled Thumpin’ wrong…. Technology… What is a poor boy to do? Well, my beloved Cardinals lost their day game VS the Brewers yesterday. They finished the home stand and now head to San Diego… Good luck Redbirds! The Outsiders greet me this morning with their song: Time Won’t Let Me…
Speaking of time… I had a ton of notes for today’s Pfennig and this morning when I went to my drafts, they weren’t there! Gone! So, this will be a bit later this morning, as now I have to start fresh! Well, kind-a-fresh, I’m still sleepy this morning!
Yesterday morning everything was going the right way (except oil and the 10-year) with the dollar down 9 index points in the BBDXY, and Gold & Silver soaring… But, as the day went along, there was some tweaking and Gold ended the day up $133 to close at $4,792, and Silver was up $4.53, to close at $77.24… and the BBDXY closed the day at 1,188 down 6 index points… Not as bad as it started the day, but still down by a good margin…
Oil Traders were all over the board yesterday, with the price of Oil driving higher to $96 at one point in the day, after it was announced that there would be no more Navy guidance of ships through the Strait of Hormuz… And that’s where it closed the day at $96
The 10-year Treasury has seen different sentiment this week, after seeing its yield climb to over 4.40% (And the 30-year over 5%) it has seen a different sentiment and now ended the day with a 4.35%…
In the overnight markets last night… It was announced last night by the POTUS that a peace deal is close… And that sent the price of Oil back down to start the day at a $91 handle. And the 10-year has seen another drop in its yield and starts today at 4.33%
The dollar overnight saw a bit of selling and the BBDXY lost 1 index point to start the day today… And Gold is up $43 to start our day today, and Silver is up $3.45… Silver is really playing catch-up these last two days, and makes me nervous as the SPTs are seeing this and waiting to pounce… I close my eye and I can see them lurking in the dark alley, just waiting for the right time to pounce on Silver… I’m just saying…
Yesterday, I told you about how the Chinese renminbi has been being allowed to gain VS the dollar again… And then I ran into this on YouTube: “The global financial landscape is shifting as the Chinese Yuan gains strength against the US dollar, hitting a near three-year high. Analysts say currency markets are becoming a new battleground between the US and China, with strategic moves impacting global trade and economic power. While the dollar remains dominant, the yuan’s rise signals a slow but significant shift in global financial dynamics.”
Chuck Again… so, the Chinese and the U.S. are in war… A financial war with their currencies… to me, the Chinese have picked the right to start this financial war, giving that the U.S. will probably be cutting interest rates early next year… I’m just saying… Oh, and did you notice that the press used the “yuan” in their writeup on the Chinese currency? Remember that I told you long ago, that the press uses the slang name of the currency because it’s easier to say and spell, not like me who uses the official name of the Chinese currency, the renminbi…
The dollar has been propped upward for a couple of weeks now, based on the war in Iran and how it’s going… But now, that the ceasefire has held (according to the media, but who really knows what’s going on there?) and now a Peace Agreement is near the dollar will see days like yesterday, more often…
Have you noticed the Hungarian forint’s rise lately? A month ago, when the dollar was getting bought, the forint had gone as high as 322, but this morning the forint is 302! The Forint is a European priced currency that as the number for the currency goes down the better return in dollars… The Euro Wannabes of Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic are my sneaky clues to when the dollar is back to its underlying weak trend… And all three are gaining VS the dollar right now…
The euro is still the offset currency to the dollar, and you’ll normally see euro strength when the dollar is getting sold… Man, I’m really ticking off Outlook this morning, it keeps telling me that I’m spelling words incorrectly, but it’s wrong, I’m not!
So, how’s your diversification doing? Wait, What? You haven’t started yet? Man, last week when the dollar was getting bought was the last chance saloon to get in cheap… There’s still time, but it’s waning…
The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the U.S. Trade Balance… Remember back in the day when I would simply say: Trade Deficit? But then with the advent of tariffs, the deficit turned to a credit, and with this report taken before the BIG Rebate of tariffs Trade was a credit of $60.3 Billion… This will change once tariffs get axed…
Today’s Cupboard has the usual Thursday fare of the Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, which lately have been quite interesting in that the number of claims keeps falling…
To recap… The dollar’s selling saw some tweaking yesterday and it fell back by 6 index points on the day instead of the 9 index points it was down to start the day… Gold & Silver have been soaring, and it makes Chuck nervous as the SPTs are out there… Sort of like when you swim in the ocean, you know all too well that there are sharks out there, but you do it anyway..
For What It’s Worth… Well, with Gold & Silver back on the rally tracks yesterday and today, the calls from “the experts” for the metals to rally strongly are all over the place… And I have one of those for you today, and it can be found here: Morgan Stanley sees gold prices climbing to $5,200 despite geopolitical volatility | Kitco News
Or, here’s your snippet: “The gold market is seeing some renewed momentum, with prices testing new resistance at $4,700 an ounce. While it still has some way to go to regain key price levels, one investment bank expects prices to eventually move higher.
In her latest precious metals note, Amy Gower, Morgan Stanley Research’s Metals & Mining Commodity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, reiterated her call for gold prices to end the year around $5,200 an ounce, up roughly 10% from current prices.
Gower added that she is not surprised gold has struggled in recent months despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty from the ongoing war in Iran.
“With the conflict triggering an energy supply shock that has reduced hopes for lower U.S. interest rates, it is not surprising that gold has struggled to work as a safe haven this time,” said Amy Gower, Morgan Stanley Research’s Metals & Mining Commodity Strategist.
“Gold’s sensitivity to monetary policy has taken over as the key price driver. This has overshadowed its safe-haven status and reduced its effectiveness as a hedge against both geopolitical and inflation risks. Gold prices reflect not just the impact of a particular event but, more importantly, the policy response that follows.”
High oil prices, driving inflation pressures, are forcing the Federal Reserve to reevaluate its easing policy stance and, as a result, markets have started to price out rate cuts this year. However, Morgan Stanley is still betting on at least one rate cut this year, which will support higher gold prices.
“Gold is likely to remain sensitive to real yields, but we see room for further upside,” Gower said.
Morgan Stanley sees one rate cut in January followed by another rate cut in March 2027. “
Chuck again… Well, I’m from Missouri, and I’ll have to be shown Gold rallies like she said it will…
Market Prices 5/7/2026: American Style: A$ .7257, kiwi .5981, C$ .7336, euro 1.1766, sterling 1.3615, Swiss $1.2857, European Style: rand 16.2827, krone 9.2299, SEK 9.2018, forint 302.24, zloty 3.5924, koruna 20.6600, RUB 74.68, yen 156.38, sing 1.2657, HKD 7.8314, INR 94.28, China 6.8016, peso 17.20, BRL 4.9239, BBDXY 1,187, Dollar Index 97.59, Oil $91.80, 10-year 4.33%, Siver $80.94, Platinum $2,090.00, Palladium $1,566.00, Copper $6.22, and Gold… $4,735
That’s it for today… Well, my visit to my oncologist on Tuesday was interesting… She did tell me that there was no new signs of Cancer in me, but then talked to me about my jaw where cancerous lesion resides… about 15 years ago, I was going to have my right mandible removed, and I would never eat solid foods again… But then I ended up in the hospital with cellulitis and we booked a trip to M.D Anderson in Houston and the jaw operation was cancelled.. (Thank God!) So, it’s been 15 years, and maybe the operation is different now, and that’s what she wants me to check out… I told her I might, but I doubt I do… I abhor hospital stays, and surgeries! This has run on a long time, time to end it… War takes us to the finish line today with their song: Low Rider… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler