Author: admin

• dollar gets bought yesterday and last night
• No bonus for you!

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! I think we’re getting somewhere on straightening out our distribution problems… Not ready for Prime Time just yet, but getting somewhere… And I jumped the gun a bit yesterday saying that the FDIC had given approval to Frank Trotter’s Battle Bank… Frank sent me a note and said it was a “temporary approval”… Whatever the heck that means! The NFL’s Conference Championship games will be played this Sunday, with the Chiefs at Ravens, and the Lions at 49er’s… Should be good games! Winter in S. Florida is coming to an end, and by Sunday this week we’ll be back in the mid 80’s… NICE! My kids have had all kinds of inclement weather in January back home… So, I’m not going to complain about 70’s here… The great Rev. Al Green greets me this morning with his song: Love And Happiness…

Well… the selling of the dollar in the overnight market ended Sunday night once the NY traders arrived at their respective desks… And yesterday the dollar got bought, not at breakneck speed, but got bought, nonetheless. The BBDXY gained 2 index points from Friday’s close… Gold & Silver fought back big time yesterday to turn negative overnight prices to positive prices on the day… Gold gained, are you ready for this? 20-cents! But it had fought back from $24 down overnight… And Silver gained 9-cents, after being down 19-cents overnight.  Gold closed at $2,022.40, and Silver closed at $22.24…  

The European Central Bank and the Bank of England both are meeting later this week to discuss rates… I don’t expect either of them to move one way or the other. But knowing that these two were going to meet this week, probably kept a lid on the dollar’s upward movement yesterday…  

The price of Oil remained trading in the $73 handle yesterday, and Bonds didn’t get sold further with the 10-year’s yield remaining at 4.10% on Monday.  I do believe that Oil’s $2 bounce over the weekend was a result of the fire at the Russian Oil refinery, that was caused by Ukrainian drones…  Speaking of the war between Ukraine, and Russia, I do believe that it will peter out this year, and become a non-factor by year’s end…  It’s not like we can all celebrate world peace then, though… 

The Japanese yen is really feeling the strain of not having a rate hike in its back pocket, like it had before… Yen, is back to moving toward 150 again, and knowing that, I truly expect the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to start jawboning in an attempt to stop the bleeding in yen… But what will they say? That they are looking toward hiking rates? When the last inflation report pretty much put the kyboshes on that thought! 

In the overnight markets last night…  They (traders) continued to push the dollar higher, not with conviction, but higher, as the BBDXY gained 1.70 index points overnight.  Before I retired last night, I checked the markets, and the dollar was getting sold, so I went to bed thinking that this morning would show a currency rally… But that was not to be, as something spooked the markets overnight, and they bought dollars… Gold is up a tiny bit this morning (+$2) in the early trading… And Silver is up 7-cents to start the day… 

The price of Oil remains trading in the $73 handle, and the 10-year saw 3 more basis points added to its yield overnight and starts the day with a 4.13% yield. 

I read a report last night that talked about how Copper is better prepared to perform in 2024, than Gold… Wow! I thought, seeing the headline, because I’m of the opinion that Gold is going to have a very good year… So, I read the report and it’s all tied to the supply issue in Copper that I’ve talked about many times in the past.  There’s a HUGE demand for Copper from the industrial side, and the ability to deliver the needed copper supply is dwindling… So, while I agree that supply and demand should dictate price, we’ve seen these past years of the “everything bubble” that supply and demand is pushed to the wayside…  But if it comes into play here, I agree that Copper should have a very good year… 

The Chinese renminbi saw a huge increase by the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) last night… There were reports that China was implementing another large sum of money to stimulate the economy, and I guess the PBOC decided that that the renminbi was too weak, so they corrected that! 

Well, according to Janet Yellen, U.S. Treasury Secretary, the U.S. is doing just fine, and there’s no need to worry…  And then there was this article on Bloomberg.com, that indicates that she might not be speaking the truth…  let’s listen in: “US workers are getting smaller bonuses, a sign that belt-tightening employers aren’t as concerned about losing talent as in recent years.

The average cash bonus paid to employees last month was $2,145, down 21% from the previous year, according to payroll software company Gusto, which tracks payments made by more than 300,000 small businesses. Every industry posted a decline, ranging from 3.8% for technology firms to 36% for tourism and transportation companies. Not only were bonuses smaller, but fewer workers got them in most industries.”

Chuck again… You know, back in the late 60’s or early 70’s, $2,145 bonus wouldn’t be something to turn your nose up to… But, more than 50 years later? I can see where that would have busted my buttons for sure! 

I guess it proves that something is better than nothing…  

OK… onto to something else… Well, yesterday, I was treated to (and I use that word liberally here) to a video from Kitco that featured Harry Dent…  There was a short time at the Sovereign Society that I worked with Harry Dent, and quite frankly, I thought he was a “little out there”… Then years later when everything under the sun and moon was getting sold (2007,2008) Harry Dent said that Gold would fall to $750…  Well, it never got close to that, and so I just marked that down to an error, but not a biggie…  His video yesterday, was pure gloom and doom stuff that if he has been right about stuff in the past, you would be shaking in your boots right now, after watching it…  I’ll include it here in case anyone wants to hear what Harry Dent has to say…  Mega crash is coming in 2024: This is the signal that everything is about to selloff — Harry Dent | Kitco News 

I have to question myself as to why I even gave him the space I did in this letter…  Well, there is something that he said in his spiel, that make abundant sense, and that is in the past it took 18 months for rate hikes to work their way through and show what they did to the economy… So, in March 2022 through June of last year… 525 Basis Points in rate hikes, and all of those haven’t even begun to work their way through the economy… I see this as a real problem for the economy, folks… Most people thing we skated through this rate hike cycle, like Michelle Kwan… But the best or worst as I see it, is yet to come…  

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the Leading Indicators for Dec. I told you yesterday, that I thought that the report would remain negative, and that’s just what it did, which now makes it 18 months of falling leading Indicators… This is one of the two forward looking pieces of data that we get, everything else is backward looking, and in some cases the report is 2 months old by the time it prints… So, this is report is important, folks… 

To recap… The dollar was bought yesterday, and in the overnight markets last night. Not frenzied buying, just buying and the BBDXY has gained 3 index points since Friday…  Gold is up a tiny bit this morning, Oil is flat, and bonds are getting sold. Harry Dent says the sky is falling… will he be right?  I guess we’ll see… And Company bonuses are down, and some were not given… Hmmm… 

For What It’s Worth…Well, this article about tells it all… That the will of the people isn’t even a thought in our elected leaders’ minds…  You see, that in New Jersey, the garden state, a bill was passed unanimously, without a single “no” vote, but when sent to the Gov. he vetoed it… Wait, What?  yes, the article can be found here: NJ Governor Vetoes Popular Gold and Silver Sales Tax Exemption Bill (moneymetals.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy has unilaterally killed a bill that would have exempted the sales tax on purchases of gold and silver.

Bill A5294 / S1825 had passed out of both committees and both chambers of the New Jersey legislature without a single “no” vote. This popular bill had more than a dozen co-sponsors and had unanimous approval in each legislative chamber. Despite this Gov. Murphy chose not to enact the bill into law through the use of a pocket veto.

According to Bloomberg, “a pocket veto only applies to bills that passed in the last 10 days of a two-year legislative session, and is the only kind of veto in which the governor doesn’t return the bill to the legislature for a possible override.”

Alabama, Tennessee, Virginia, Mississippi, and Ohio have all recently enacted legislation to exempt gold and silver from state sales tax, or extend their existing exemption on the metals. In total 43 states have ended sales tax on gold and silver — including all three of New Jersey’s neighboring states.

Levying sales taxes on precious metals makes no sense because they held for resale. Sales taxes are typically levied on final consumer goods. Computers, shirts, and shoes carry sales taxes because the consumer is “consuming” the good. Precious metals are inherently held for resale, not “consumption,” making the imposition of sales taxes on precious metals illogical from the start.”

Chuck again… Well, like I said above, so much for the will of the people, right? This country is becoming more and more like a banana republic in my opinion… 

Market Prices 1/23/2024: American Style: A$.6578, kiwi .6089, C$ .7419, euro 1.0865, sterling 1.2705, Swiss $1.1503, European Style: rand 19.1499, krone 10.5226, SEK 10.4535, forint 354.52, zloty 4.0335, koruna 22.7272, RUB 88.47, yen 147.95, sing 1.3406, HKD 7.8229, INR 83.16, China 7.1708, peso 17.30, BRL 4.9849, BBDXY 1,237.71, Dollar Index 103.45, Oil $73.87, 10-year 4.13%, Silver $22.31, Platinum $899.00, Palladium $954.00, Copper $3.78, and Gold…. $2,034.20

That’s it for today… Not much went on yesterday down here… The wind really has the ocean angry and this morning, it looks even angrier! I’m reading a new/ different book now, having finished the last one in 3 days… The Reacher series on Amazon Prime ended last week for season 2… The new Reacher is more like the Reacher described in the books by Lee Child… Now I have to wait for Season 3! UGH!  Our Blues play at the Flames tonight, late… I won’t be able to stay up to watch them… Go Blues! Same with my beloved Mizzou Tigers that play their game late tonight… UGH!  Three Dog Night takes us to the finish line today with their song: Easy To Be Hard… The very first Album I every bought, as a kid, was Three Dog Night live at the Forum… I played that vinyl over and over again! I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today and will do your very best to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals get sold overnight
• Gen Zer’s Are duds…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well congratulations to the Ravens, 49er’s, lions, and Chiefs, for their playoff game wins, now we’re down to 4 teams… two games this weekend will decide who goes to the Super Bowl… My take is that the 49er’s and the Ravens will be the Super Bowl teams…  I’m not a betting man, but those are my picks… These two have been the best teams all year, so it makes sense to me that they end up in the Super Bowl. I’ll be here all by myself for the Super Bowl… Won’t be the first time, and probably not the last time either!  Our Blues stopped their 3-game losing streak with a shut-out win Saturday night. This team needs to get on their horse and ride it, until the end of the year! The Little River Bank greets me this morning with their song: Cool Change…

Well, the dollar seemed to be stuck in the mud on Thursday and Friday last week, as the BBDXY ended the week at 1,238, the same price it had at Thursday’s open… The dollar, like Gold, was searching for a reason to buy it… In Gold’s case there is a reason, it’s just that most people don’t see it… With the dollar, who got a lot of love from the idea that interest rates won’t be cut as early as the markets had priced in, is now looking for something else to move it higher, and if it fails to find something soon, it will see selling, as I’ve explained in the past, traders will attempt to move something higher, and in failing to do so, will just give up the ghost and sell… 

Gold was bought on Thursday (by $17.50), and Friday (by $6.80) to end the week at $2,050.60… Whew! is what I was saying on Friday, because on Wednesday morning, Gold was at $2,006… And according to the charts, if Gold gave up the $2,000 figure it would be in decline… And we can’t have that, can we?  I know, I know, it is what it is, and Gold’s price is not important in a day-to-day situation… Over the long haul, is where the BIG moves are… Silver was up 19-cents on Thursday and down 12-cents on Friday… The short paper traders just won’t let Silver off the hook, they’re at Silver every single day! 

The price of Oil ended the week trading with a $73 handle… The U.S. is not putting up with any B.S. from the folks shooting rockets at ships in the Red Sea…. And this has an ugly chance of things escalating… I certainly hope not!  But, if they do, expect the price of Oil to move higher, along with Gold…  The 10-year’s yield continued to climb late last week, and ended the week with a 4.13% yield… Last Monday morning the 10-year’s yield was 3.94%… So, that’s a quick move higher for bonds… I’m just saying..

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar saw some selling overnight, but so did Gold, and bonds aren’t getting bought either, something strange is going on this morning, and I can’t put my finger on it right now… The BBDXY has lost 4 index points from where it ended trading on Friday. Gold has lost $24 overnight, and Silver has lost 19-cents, The 10—year’s yield has risen to 4.10%, thus indicating that bonds are getting sold. The deep dive of stocks in China are starting to spread, folks… So, I guess we had better batten down the hatches, until this all blows over, and when it does, that will be the time to pick up some cheaper asset classes…  Man, I hate to have to tell you to do that, but, what else is there? The dollar, bonds, metals, stocks are all getting sold… UGH!  

The price of Oil remained trading with a $73 handle overnight, and the reports this morning say the problems in the Red Sea are going to remain for some time to come, and that’s a sign that the price of Oil will not fall from present levels… Ok, I said it’s a “sign”… There’s no guarantee that it will go higher, and not fall… Just a “sign”… Sort like the Stop sign in front of my house back home, it’s taken as a suggestion, not a hard stop!   

Bonds are back to getting sold, thus proving what I said about them when they were getting bought like funnel cakes at a State Fair… “This is a bear market rally, nothing more”…   The bond boys have taken the new Mantra that Interest Rates are staying higher, longer, to heart..  These guys and gals (the bond boys) are fickle folks, and they aren’t easily swayed… It takes a strong push to get them to move in one direction… And that’s that!  The 10-year this morning is 4.10%… 

Well, you know most letter writers that talk about the economies, markets, etc. start the new year with their personal forecasts for the coming year… If they are from the Casino Banks/ Brokerages they’ll concentrate on the stock market, and talk about how they see stocks soaring in 2024… If they are independent, like me, they concentrate on economies, and dolts… And with that, you’ll not get any stock info from me!  But as far, as economies are concerned, I’m your man!  And that brings me to something that I’ve been talking about for some time now, and that is how Russia, China, Iran, India, etc. are moving away from Swift, and transacting all of their trade though their own system, thus exchanging each countries’ currencies, and not dollars… 

I know, most people in the U.S. have no idea that this is going on, and that’s a shame, a real shame, that they can’t write their representatives and tell them to change things quickly before they go to hell in a hand basket! You see, I see this coming to a head in 2024… The U.S. and our allies, VS the BRICS and everyone else that get coerced into getting out of dollars…  (The Stans, and the likes) I know, I’m being Mr. Sunshine again this morning… So, I’ll leave this for another day now, and move on…

The other thing that most people in this country have no ideas about is the push for a digital dollar… No more folding currency in your pocket… I’m sure, right now, the propeller heads are attempting to figure out how to change all loan and lease agreements that state that they must be paid in dollars…  They’ll come up with some wording that makes it all work, you can guarantee that!  I have to say that I thought that presidential candidate, Trump, said something that will really help him, when he said that there’s no way he would allow a digital dollar… OK, that was a bout as far as I’ll go with any political stuff…  

It was reported last week that China had seen growth at 5.25%… I told you all years ago, that we should only believe half of what the Chinese report… So, given that their growth would be 2.625%, and to me that sounds about right, given what I’ve seen so far…  I also want to mention here that the Chinese renminbi has been getting marked down daily for the last couple of weeks… I doubt the Chinese leaders would allow that to happen if the economy was really growing at 5.25%!   You need a strong currency to fight inflation, and since the Chinese have been at this, eons longer than anyone else, they know this to be true…  So, see how this all comes together? The GDP is weaker than reported, and that’s why the renminbi is weaker… I’m just saying…

Getting away from dire stuff for a moment… Bloomberg.com had this great story this morning about how the U.S. economy is turning into an extrovert… Let’s listen in; “One other way the pandemic altered America: It has created what might be called the Introvert Economy. The time at home made Americans less fun. 2023 was a year for daytime office holiday parties, after all, and in general Americans are going out less.1 And odds are it will stick: It is the youngest adults who are going out less, and when they do go out, it is earlier.”

The article goes on to say that the younger generation (Z) doesn’t drink very much socially… But older Americans still drink a lot socially! That’s me! We know how to go out and have fun, and the younger folks, don’t have a clue! I was at a Christmas party for our subdivision this past Dec. and by 9 pm all the young couples had gone home! Wait! What? Yes, at the end of the night it was only the older folks still partying… I feel sorry for the younger folks, they won’t know the fun of being out late with friends, and having a good time… Oh, well, I won’t lose any sleep over that, because that’s their problem, not mine! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week had another regional Manufacturing index for this, following up on the Empire negative -43 print earlier in the week, the Philly Fed Manufacturing index printed a negative -10.6 for this month, and that followed December’s -12 print… 

This morning, the Data Cupboard has the Leading Indicators for December… Just a reminder that this report has been in a negative area that indicates a recession is coming, for 18 months!   And December’s print doesn’t change things at all, at least that’s how I see it… 

To recap… The dollar drifted late last week, and then got sold overnight… Gold got bought late last week, but got sold overnight, see a pattern here? Chuck thinks we need to batten down the hatches until this blows over… Bonds are getting sold again, and China’s deep dive in stocks is spreading around the world…  There’s going to be another print of Leading Indicators today… Chuck doesn’t think they’ll be any change to the report, it’ll remain negative… 

For What It’s Worth…  Well, I saw this in Ed Steer’s letter on Saturday, and knew Immediately that it was FWIW worthy… This is the head of the Heritage Foundation (of which I belong to) speaking at Davos… And it can be found here: Watch: “You Are The Problem” – Conservative Speaker Slams Davos Globalists To Their Faces | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “Kevin Roberts, President of the conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation, spoke to globalists at the World Economic Forum confab Thursday and told them directly that “You are part of the problem, you are not the solution.”

During a discussion titled “What to Expect from a Possible Republican Administration,” Roberts let rip on the elitists.

“I will be candid,” Roberts began, adding “the agenda that every single person member of the [future Republican] administration needs to have, is to compile a list of everything that’s ever been proposed at the [WEF], and object all of them wholesale.”

He further urged that “anyone not prepared to do that, and take away this power of the unelected bureaucrats and give it back to the American people, is unprepared to be a part of the next conservative administration.”

When the discussion turned to Donald Trump, Roberts told the host of the panel, Sir Robin Niblett, ‘Distinguished Fellow’ of Chatham House, that “It’s laughable that you or anyone would describe Davos as protecting liberal democracy,” adding “It’s equally laughable to use the word ‘dictatorship’ at Davos and aim that at President Trump… I think that’s absurd.”

He continued, “The very reason I’m here at Davos, is to explain to many people in this room and who are watching, with all due respect – nothing personal – that you are part of the problem.”

“Political elites tell the average people… that the reality is ‘x,’ when in fact, reality is ‘y,’” Roberts further declared, going on to give several examples with regards to open borders, immigration, gender issues, and the constant guilt trip elites subject everyday people to over the “existential threat” of climate change, while they hypocritically fly around in private jets.”

Chuck again… Well, that was a start Kevin… the problem is that your words probably fell on deaf ears… I sure hope not, but the reality is, this whole change is in motion, and like a ship at sea, it will take some time to change direction… I’m just saying…

Market Prices 1/22/2024: American Style: A$.6590, kiwi .6226, C$ .7452, euro 1.0890, sterling 1.2715, Swiss $1.1516, European Style: rand 19.1328, krone 10.5032, SEK 10.4385, forint 351.19, zloty 4.0025, koruna 22.7374, RUB 87.96, yen 147.90, sing 1.3414, HKD 7.1954, INR 83.03, China 7.1954, peso 17.07, BRL 4.9289, BBDXY 1,234.91, Dollar Index 103.23, Oil $73.72, 10-year 4.10%, Silver $22.19, Platinum $897.00, Palladium $921.00, Copper $3.77, and Gold… $2,026.24

That’s it for today…  Well, good friend, Frank Trotter announced this past weekend that his new online Bank, Battle Bank, has received their approval from the FDIC… As I understand it, that was the last hurdle, regulator wise, to clear… So, Congratulations, Frank! As I’ve told you before, Battle Bank is now distributing the Pfennig each day, so in essence, Frank & Chuck are back together! (Well, sorta!) Hopefully, all the hoops that Battle Banks tech people had to jump through will come to an end, and they can, for sure, begin to distribute the letter… Until that time, you’ll have to go to: www.dailypfennig.com to read it each day… UGH!  It’s not an easy thing to do, these days, with all the fake stuff going on, one has to verify that the person receiving the email letter actually wants to receive it, and where they are!  It’s all strange to me, but thems the rules, and we have to abide by them! The Cure, takes us to the finish line today with their song that’s been copied a few times by other bands: Lovesong…  I know one read that I used to work with that simply adores the Cure…  (right Laura?) I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please, oh please, try to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

*Currencies & metals get taken to the woodshed on Tuesday…

* Ray Dalio joins us this morning…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Yesterday was fabulous here, and that made me quite happy! I helped an elderly lady bring some bags up to her condo yesterday, the previous day I had to open a bottle that she couldn’t get the lid off of… She said, “are you going to be around every time I need help?”  I laughed and said, “only if you’re around me when you need help!” I don’t think you’ll want to read what happened yesterday in the markets, but, I’m going to write it, so, you have no choice! HA!  Eddie Floyd, greets me this morning with his song: Knock On Wood… 

Well, the dollar bugs sure had their day yesterday… The dollar was bought like funnel cakes at a State Fair! All the articles out there describing the dollar rally said about the same thing… That this rally was a result of higher yields, and a come to heart thought that interest rates are NOT going to be cut early this year if at all… So, the BBDXY gained over 10 index points yesterday, bringing the dollar to pre mini-selloff highs…. 

Here’s Ed Steer’s thoughts on yesterday’s metals price action from his letter this morning: “This was pure price management from the 6:00 p.m. Globex open in New York…until they were all done late in after-hours trading in New York on Tuesday afternoon. This Zero Hedge story from 11:25 a.m. EST on Tuesday morning headlined “Stocks & Bonds Tumble After Fed’s Waller Sends Rate-Cut Odds Reeling” was also part of the reason given…which is pure bulls hit. That news came out a very long time after the engineered price declines were progress. It was all paper trading once again.

The simple fact of the matter is the the Plunge Protection Team didn’t want either gold or silver to be seen as a safe harbor yesterday…so the money from the stock market went into dollars or treasuries instead. It worked like a charm.”

Chuck again…. And Gold? YIKES! Gold was persona non gratis all day, and ended up losing more than $27 on the day… $27! Silver lost 34-cents on the day… And of course the short paper traders were in, piling on to Gold & Silver’s problems… 

I’m not about to say that all this selling of the metals was from higher yields, nor was it all from short paper trading, but put them together, and you have this awful day for the metals…  That’s my Pfennig worth… 

The price of Oil slipped yesterday, but remained in Oil’s current range, and ended the day with a $71 handle.  So, if higher yields were a problem for the metals, then I guess they are talking about the 10-years 4.05% yield…  You know it was just 3 months ago that the 10-year’s yield was over 5%…  So… I guess those that hold the reins decided that 4.05% was a “higher yield”…  Higher than it was the day before, but to say it was a “high yield” is really stretching the meaning of “high yield”… 

In the overnight markets last night…. The dollar got bought some more, with the BBDXY up 2 index points this morning… This dollar buying has gotten out of control, and pretty soon it will show overbought, but until then we get to watch the currencies get taken to the woodshed, over and over again. The euro has dropped to 1.0874 this morning, and all the other currencies are taking on water… The price of Gold is up a buck or two in the early trading today, and Silver is done a nickel… The damage that has been inflicted on the metals is quite evident this morning, with the only saving grace in Gold is that it remains above $2,000… 

The price of Oil has slipped even more, down to a $70 handle this morning.  I read this morning that ships are still daring to travel through the gauntlet that is the Red Sea..  I question their daring… This would be where I personally would put my valor in the closet… But then that ‘s just me, always being the safe one… Speaking of being safe, Got Gold?   Bonds continue to get sold, and the 10-year’s yield has bumped higher to 4.08% this morning… 

You know, I’ve been thinking about the issuance of Treasuries for 2024… Apparently the total issuance will be $2 Trillion worth! That’s crazy, eh? Well, that got me thinking bout how the U.S. will find buyers for all those bonds, especially if the yields are falling because the Fed / Cabal/ Cartel are talking about rate cuts…   Who’s going to buy them? Oh my!   But wait! Wait just a minute here, We have the White Knight on a steed riding in to save the bond market, and the financial system… None other than the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel! They could very easily scrap their Quantitative Easing program, and start buying bonds again…  Ok, this is what got us into a Big problem with inflation, but as Bill Bonner always repeats: Inflate or Die….   The Fed Heads would be signaling that they choose inflation… Now that’s really heartwarming to know, eh?  NOT! 

What the Fed Heads will be doing is simply prolonging the end of the financial system and in doing so, causing pain and suffering to those subjected to rising inflation… Oooh, boy, sign me up for some of that! NOT! 

After printing the article I printed on Monday, from the former Fed Head who told us not to worry about the Country’s Debt, and I asked what planet she was from or where she got her degree…. I came across this that makes much more sense: Ray Dalio is one of the world’s most successful hedge fund managers.

His success is due to his consistent ability to get the Big Picture right.

He recently said this:

“We are at a point in which we are borrowing money to pay debt service.

When you keep having debt growth faster than income growth, that means you have debt service encroaching on your spending, and you want to keep spending at the same time.

As that happens, there is a need to get more and more into debt. It accelerates.

We are at the point of that acceleration. We are near that inflection point.”

Dalio is warning about the explosive nature of the US government’s compounding debt situation.”

That was taken from Doug Casey’s International Man newsletter… 

A long-time reader sent me this last night, and while I haven’t had the chance to actually view it yet, I will today, and since Billy strongly suggested that I read it, I will!  I’m talking about David Rogers Webb and his book The Great Taking..  Now I’m suggesting you read it too… Thanks Billy! 

For What It’s Worth… Well, look who’s at it again? What am I talking about? I’m talking bout JPMorgan and they are in trouble again, this time with the SEC, for bribing clients to not file complaints… I can’t make this stuff up folks, it can be found here: Largest Bank in the World Just Caught Bribing its Clients | Ainslie Bullion

Or, here’s your snippet: “he Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced this morning that they had settled charges with JP Morgan for preventing hundreds of advisory and brokerage clients from reporting potential securities law violations to the SEC. Of course, no guilt was officially admitted.

A week after the SEC’s horrific handling of the Bitcoin ETF ‘Twitter hack’ debacle, they have somewhat redeemed themselves by exposing the extremely questionable practices at the one bank that is arguably the most important for the systematic financial stability of the US.

According to an SEC press release, JP Morgan regularly requested retail clients, from March 2020 to July 2023, to sign confidential release agreements if they received a credit or settlement exceeding $1,000 from the firm. These agreements compelled clients to maintain confidentiality regarding the settlement, its underlying facts, and information related to the concerned account. While clients were allowed to respond to SEC inquiries, they were prohibited from voluntarily contacting the SEC.

It was reported that 362 clients signed such release, with the amounts ranging from $1000 to $165,000

JP Morgan paid an $18 million fine to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) without admitting or denying charges. Obviously, $18 million is pennies for JP Morgan, barely a slap on the wrist considering their standardised risk-weighted assets hit $1.7 trillion this year.

The SEC’s Director of Enforcement, Gurbir S. Grewal, emphasised the illegality of including provisions preventing individuals from reporting wrongdoing to the SEC. He stated, “Whether it’s in your employment contracts, settlement agreements or elsewhere, you simply cannot include provisions that prevent individuals from contacting the SEC with evidence of wrongdoing.”

Chuck again… And that reminds me that the U.S. Gov’t just put the CEO of JPMorgan, Jamie Dimon, as head of something, I can’t recall what that was… The only redeeming quality that I’ve found from Dimon is that he blasted Bitcoin last December… 

Market Prices 1/17/2024: American Style: A$.6557, kiwi .6118, C$ .7395, euro 1.0874, sterling 1.2678, Swiss $1.1570, European Style: rand 19.0527, krone 10.5020, SEK 10.4880, forint 350.27, zloty 4.0437, koruna 22.7061, RUB 88.51, yen 147.75, sing 1.3459, HKD 7.8249, INR 83.13, China 7.1955, peso 17.29, BRL 4.9299, BBDXY 1,239.08, Dollar Index 103.40, Oil $70.93, 10-year 4.08%, Silver $22.93, Platinum $903.00, Palladium $962.00, Copper $3.77, and Gold… $2,029.00

That’s it for today… Not a good night for my teams, last night, as both the Mizzou Tigers and the SLU Billikens lost their respective basketball games…  I got to watch both of them too! UGH!  What a beautiful day here in S. Florida yesterday, I sat outside reading until I thought I had gotten enough sun… So, 2 days of the 14 we’ve been here for have been normal S. Florida weather… just 2 days, but then back home they had to deal with cold and snow yesterday… So stop complaining Chuck! just 28 days till pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training… I noticed the other night that my season tickets for Spring Training games had finally been put into my MLB account, and suddenly I got the urge to go down to the stadium…  Soon enough Chuck, hold your horses!  The great George Harrison takes us to the finish line today with his song: What Is Life?  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday and will Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

*currencies & metals get sold in the overnight markets

* Credit Card delinquencies rise… Uh-oh!

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, congrats to the Bills and the Bucs as they joined the other 4 winners of their playoff games yesterday and last night. Man, do I miss my RedZone tv station, as i find it difficult to watch a full NFL game, and prefer to watch highlights from live games instead… The day yesterday was warm, but overcast, and allowed me to sit outside and read a good part of the day, without worrying about the sun on my skin… I’ve just started a new book for me…  The Memory Man series… It’s a good one so far! Good friend, Karen brought me a ton of books to read the other day, and so now I’m set, with reading material for some time to come! The Guess Who greets me this morning with their song: Undun… 

Well, it was a holiday here in the U.S. yesterday, so there wasn’t much movement in the metals, Gold did gain $6 on the day to close at $2,055… Silver ended up losing 3-cents on the day, Mondy, and ended the day t $23.16… The BBDXY gained 1 index point on the day… The price of Oil bumped higher in its range to a $72 handle, and after I chastised the bond boys yesterday for not listening to the Fed Head Speakers last week, they adjusted the 10-year’s yield higher to 4.0%… 

I was reading my weekly Classic Wisdom yesterday, and realized that I had become addicted to knowing more and more about the ancient Greeks, and others of the time… Yesterday they drew a comparison of Socrates and MLK… they had both given their lives to better enlighten people…  You learn something new every day, folks… and when you don’t, it was a wasted day! 

In the overnight markets last night… Well, all hell broke loose last night… The dollar bugs went on rampage, and Gold got sold down the river… The BBDXY gained 7 index points overnight, and Gold lost $17 in the early trading. This has been swift, and strong… I guess it was bound to happen given all the talk of no rate cuts early by the Fed Heads… But C’mon dollar bugs… are you kidding me? You really believe the dollar should be bought right now? Apparently so… UGH!  Silver is down 15-cents to start the day today, barely holding on to the $23 handle… 

The price of Oil has bumped higher in the range and trades with a $73 handle, and the 10-year’s yield inched higher and trades this morning with a 4.01% yield…  I really don’t get why the dollar bugs are running all over the kitchen floor this morning, but they are, and so we’ll just batten down the hatches. The euro has dropped below 1.09, and the rest of the currencies, sans rubles, are looking pretty ugly this morning… 

Well… the world planners are meeting in Davos, Switzerland… this isn’t as clandestine as the Bilderberg meetings, and I did get a kick out of their plan for the meeting… “To restore Trust”…  Hmmm… that would mean that they did have our trust before, and somehow lost it… I wouldn’t trust these boys and girls with anything! 

Did you hear that Credit Card delinquencies are rising? And that to me is sign that consumers have been using credit cards to make ends meet, and now they’re having problems with paying the large interest rate-based loans down…  This could end up being what really causes the U.S. economy to fall flat on its face, folks… I’m just saying…  You can find this article here: https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-outlook-credit-card-deliquencies-decade-federal-reserve-markets-household-2024-1

Last week I wrote about how Gold had outperformed stocks and bonds since the turn of the century… And then i Bill Bonner’s letter  yesterday, he wrote this: “Our guess is that we’ve already seen “Peak America” in the late ‘90s. That was the best time – ever – to sell US equities. The Dow was trading at over 40 ounces of gold. So, if you had $100,000 in stocks…and you traded them for gold, you would have gotten 357 ounces.  

If you’d left your money in stocks, it would have grown from $100,000 to over $370,000 over the next 23 years. Not bad. But your gold coins would have gone from $280 per ounce in 1999 to over $2,000 an ounce today, turning your $100,000 into $714,000. ” – Bill Bonner from Bonner private research… 

Well, the warnings have all been sounded regarding traveling through the Red Sea… Another U.S. ship was hit by a missile fired from those not wanting anything to go through the passageway. The US. had tried to send a message last week by firing on the terrorists, but now we learn that Congress hadn’t given the POTUS the Ok, to wage war… Uh-Oh…. All, I’m trying to point out here is that with oil tankers having to go the long way around, it’s going to jack up the cost to ship, and therefore the cost of the Oil…   

Hmmm…. Well, the U.S. is racking up the debt again… This from MarketWatch.com “The U.S. federal budget deficit widened to $129 billion in December, up from $85 billion in the same month last year, the Treasury Department said Thursday.  

For the first three months of the fiscal year, the deficit widened to $510 billion, up from $421 billion in the same period last year.

Interest on the federal debt was up $78 billion, to $288 billion, over the first three months of the fiscal year compared with the same period a year earlier. The Federal Reserve’s rapid increase in interest rates is leading to higher interest payments.”

See what I’ve been saying about the new issuance of Treasuries to finance the debt? Well, in case you forgot, I told you that the cost to service the debt, (interest rates on the bonds) would increase, and get so high that soon other items in the budget that requires funding would be forgotten about in the near future…  What would you do if your WIC payment was deleted?  Or your welfare payment was cut in half?  Ok, I know I’m not talking to many of you who would be able to answer that question, but the idea here is to talk about what these people might do… And storm the castle comes to mind…  

Well, the dollar gets another day to breathe easier without any economic data printing today… Tomorrow, will be a day of data for the U.S. and we should get a pretty good idea as to the direction of the economy… 

To recap… The dollar got bought some yesterday, but really got bought overnight… Gold was up $6 yesterday, Oil was up a buck, and the 10-year’s yield was up to 4.0%… Chuck mentions Davos… and he talks about credit card delinquencies, and how that could very well be the straw that breaks the economy’s back…  And interest cost on financing our debt is growing faster than a speeding bullet… 

For What It’s Worth… Well after yesterday’s FWIW article, I found that today needed to be more of what I consider to be the truth… And for that I have an article about World Leaders doing the wrong thing, and it can be found here: An End to Progress – Doug Casey’s International Man

Or, here’s your snippet: ““Progress may have been all right once, but it has gone on too long.”

I’ve always been fond of that quote. Back when Ogden Nash wrote it, it was quite clever. Today, the quote is a bit less entertaining, as we are living in a period when, more and more, world leaders seem to be headed in the wrong direction – away from progress. As the Great Unravelling plays out, people are coming to the conclusion that the directions taken by their leaders are, in Doug Casey’s well-chosen words, not only the wrong thing to do, but the exact opposite of the right thing to do.

The first category in which this seems to be true is economics. Most world leaders are quite committed to the idea that Keynesian economics will provide all the answers to solve any economic problem. However, the further each country goes down the Keynesian road, the clearer it becomes that Keynesian theory simply does not work. In fact, many countries that have followed it are on the brink of economic collapse, yet they are charging forward all the more determinedly with solutions that are based upon the very theories that caused the problems.

The second category is economic legislation. In most First World countries, particularly the US, legislators are making it ever-more difficult for businesspeople to function, as a result of the passage of ever-more complex and stricter regulations. The free market is, at this point, far from free, and there is a substantial flow of business away from First World countries as a result. Contrary to the claims of many politicians, most businesspeople are not following this exodus out of greed, but out of a need for survival.

The third category is social legislation. First World countries, at one time, took pride in referring to themselves as “the Free World,” in contrast to the communist and socialist Second World. Not so, today.”

Chuck again… The article goes on, and makes a lot of sense to me that is… And I’m sure for you too!  I’m of the opinion that if lord Keynesian never existed the world would be a better place…   I’m just saying… 

Market Prices 1/16/24: American Style: A$.6601, kiwi .6153, C$ .7414, euro 1.0889, sterling 1.2644, Swiss $1.1621, European Style: rand 18.9105, krone 10.4277, SEK 10.4094, forint 348.64, zloty 4.0298, koruna 22.6658, RUB 88.00, yen 146.70, sing 1.3409, HKD 7.8251, INR 83.07, China 7.1935, peso 17.03, BRL 4.8951, BBDXY 1,234.31, Dollar Index 103.17, Oil $73.05, 10-year 4.01%, Silver $23.01, Platinum $905.00, Palladium $958.00, Copper $3.74, and Gold… $2,038.15

That’s it for today… Well, I think we’ve worked out a plan for the delivery of the Pfennig to your email box each day… I sure hope so, I don’t like having to send you to the website to read it every day! Nothing against the website, it’s just that if the letter isn’t in your email box, most likely, you’ll forget about it… UGH! And you never know when I’m going to lay some real important news on you! HA!  That football game last night went pretty late for me, so I bagged it went to bed and found out who won this morning… I was pretty sure the Bucs would win, when I retired, and they did… I’m coming up on the anniversary of my stroke… I’m still in awe of the surgical procedure they performed on me at the Jupiter Med Center… The small indentation in the wall where my head hit when I fell out of my chair is still there to remind me of that day…   The Moody Blues take us to the finish line today with their song: The Other Side Of Life….  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today and will Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• The dollar drifts up and down…
• Gold moves higher on Friday…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you… In my past life, I would be taking today off, as it is a national holiday… But, given my status as non-working, I thought what the heck!  Well, the NFL didn’t make any friends, and received a lot of criticism, even from a senator, about putting a playoff game on a streaming channel… As well they should! The game in Buffalo had to be moved to today, as is the norm for Buffalo, they were getting a winter storm on Saturday… Went to dinner last night with my good friend, Gus, who’s down here for the winter like me!  Seals and Crofts greet me this morning with their great song: We May Never Pass This Way Again… 

Well, last Tub Thumpin’ Thursday saw the STUPID CPI print… And even with all the hedonic adjustments that the BLS adds to the inflation calculation, the report showed that it was too soon to sound the “All Clear” siren on inflation…  This from the headlines: “Last month, overall prices rose 3.4% from a year earlier, up from 3.1% in November, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index. On a monthly basis, costs increased 0.3% after virtually flatlining the previous two months.”

And that proved to be something that the markets couldn’t shake all day, and the dollar rose, and stocks sunk… IF, and that’s a BIG IF, the Fed Heads really care to look at the STUPID CPI, that meant that they would not be ready to cut rates as soon as March, as the markets once thought.

And Fed Head, Loretta Mester confirmed my thought last week when she said that “March was too soon to cut rates”…

And Fed Head Neel Kashkari had this to say (Reuters) “Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said he would err on the side of overtightening monetary policy rather than not doing enough to bring inflation down to the central bank’s 2% target, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.

“Undertightening will not get us back to 2% in a reasonable time,” Kashkari said in an interview with the Journal.

Kashkari said he needed more information to come to a firm decision on interest-rate steps moving forward. “I am not ready to say we are in a good place,” he told Journal.

It’s at this point that I say, “I told you so”…  I told you inflation was sticky, and that March was too soon…   

Not so fast there Chuck… What about the very weak PPI (wholesale inflation) that printed on Friday? Well, the bond boys seemed to recharge their thoughts of  rate cuts early this year because of that, you do have that as a result of the weak PPI… And on Friday, the dollar drifted… Gold gained $20.10, and Silver gained 43-cents…   So, it’s only the bond boys that took the PPI print to heart… 

Now knowing that inflation had ticked higher in December, you would have thought that the dollar would lose ground, and Gold would gain ground… Stocks would get sold, and bonds would get sold…  And you, and I would have been wrong!  

So what gives? The dollar on Thursday morning was down 2 index points to start the day, and then only ended down 1 index point at the end of the day, which meant that the dollar gained during the day… Gold, which was up $7 in the early trading, only gained $4 by the end of the day, thus losing $3 intraday…  Stocks were down 271 points and then miraculously turned around to a flat trading day…   

I would say that there had to be some great interference during the trading day Thursday,  And then on Friday…  Gold took off to the races, and brought Silver along.. .At one point in the day Gold traded as high as $2.061, but ended the day up $20.10 to close at $2,049.50…  Silver saw an even greater gain with it trading at $23.52, which was 76-cents higher, but had to settle for a gain of 43.5-cents and a price of $23.19… 

So, maybe it took the traders a day to realize that inflation isn’t going away that easily, and the geopolitical problems are escalating, and that there needs to be some protection from inflation nd wars, after all…  Maybe, just maybe, because you never know, what’s on their minds these days… 

Hey! did you hear the news that Hertz has scrapped their EV’s and ordered all gas-powered cars?  What? you think I’m making that up?  https://www.westernjournal.com/hertz-selling-fleet-electric-vehicles-shifting-back-gas-cars/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=conservativetribune&utm_campaign=dlvrit&utm_content=2024-01-12&fbclid=IwAR0gTea8qXVPVqitJ3057fWV5fc6hOHCDZis6DN3kA5bnAJJ3XwS_FpPZh0

Friend, Ed Steer, had this to say about that news: “This whole EV thingy is turning into a big bust, as I knew it would.

I’ll never own one of those things.  It’s -31C/-24F here right now — and they are totally useless when it’s this cold.”

It was negative 5 degrees in St. Louis yesterday…  

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar drifted a bit higher gaining 1 index point in the BBDXY index… The currencies all look like they are bang on levels they were last Friday… All except the Russian ruble, which is on the rally tracks the past week… Gold is up $3 to start the day today, and Silver is flat as a pancake (Head East)… The price of Oil sliped a buck and trades this morning with a $71 handle… And the bond boys (talked about above) have moved the 10-year’s yield back down to 3.93% to start the week… There will be another handful of Fed Head speakers this week, and maybe they can get the message across that rate cuts aren’t in the cards for early this year… The speakers last week, apparently didn’t get the message across clearly… 

I read a report this past weekend that talked about how the Japanese Yen is losing its safe haven status… Now, we need to back up here and talk about the Safe Havens that exist… There has been safe havens VS the dollar since Nixon took the Gold standard and threw it in the trash. They were Pound Sterling, Yen, and Swiss Francs…  And have remained as safe havens since, with varying degrees of importance… So, to say that yen is losing its safe haven status is no big deal… The euro has become the offset currency to the dollar, and therefore, when there are problems with the dollar, traders flock to euros…  I’m just saying.. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week has been talked about already above… And today’s Data Cupboard is empty because of the Holiday. On Wednesday this week we’ll see Retail Sales for January… The BHI indicates to me that this report will be OK… no negatives, no moon shots, just OK… 

To recap… The end of the week last week was interesting in that we say Gold & Silver champing at the bit to move higher, but being held back by the short paper traders… The Stupid CPI surprised the markets with a stronger than expected print, and Chuck was slapping himself on the back, saying I told you so! 

For What It’s Worth… Ok, this article goes against everything that I’ve been warning people about for decades now, and it gives some very interesting takes on the debt that I think are all malarky… But, in an effort to be fair and reasonable to all points, this article can be found here: Don’t Worry About US Debt Because Household Wealth Is 4 Times Bigger (businessinsider.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “US national debt recently topped a record $34 trillion, but worries over its size are misguided, former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm wrote in a Bloomberg op-ed.

Although concerns now abound among both politicians and consumers, pessimists are overlooking the amount of money potentially available.

“Yes, $34 trillion is big number, but $142 trillion is even bigger and much more important because it represents the total wealth of Americans —a massive resource that helps fund government debt and deficits,” she said.

Sahm also noted that some borrowing can provide economic benefits and advance societal goals, such as programs that lower child poverty and the development of COVID vaccines.

US debt skeptics have also warned that the threat comes more from the fact that interest rates have sharply increased, meaning that borrowing costs associated with federal debt will also rise.

Those costs will boost debt higher, feeding a cycle that some have warned could eventually lead to some form of default in as little as 20 years.

But debt servicing costs, though at a record $882.6 billion, make up a smaller percent of GDP than in the prior decades, Sahm noted. Today, it stands at 3.4% of GDP, below the late-1990s level of 4.3%.

“The government can easily service its debt because of its unlimited taxing authority and ability to issue more US Treasury securities to repay maturing securities,” she wrote.”

Chuck again… Ok, I don’t know what planet she came from or where she got her degree, but C’mon, let’s be serious here… Does she really think that the U.S. citizens will bail out the country?  Well, if you do, you can write your check to the U.S. Gov’t, for $265,000 because that’s each taxpayer’s portion of the debt… According to the Debt Clock…   Now, granted there are quite a few people who could write that check and not have it bounce… But the majority of us couldn’t, or wouldn’t be able to do that… I’m just saying…   I keep thinking of something my mom used to say, “you made your bed, now lay in it”… 

Market Prices 1/15/2024: American Style: A$ .6663, kiwi .6198, C$ .7455, euro 1.0956, sterling 1.2738, Swiss $1.1717, European Style: rand 18.6569, krone 10.3170, SEK 10.2945, forint 345.48, zloty 3.9851, koruna 22.5458, RUB 87.64, yen 145.70, sing 1.3334, HKD 7.8207, INR 82.88, China 7.1750, peso 16.87, BRL 4.8633, BBDXY 1,226.38, Dollar Index 102.52, Oil $71.68, 10-year 3.93%, Silver $23.19, Platinum $917.00, Palladium $981.00, Copper $3.76, and Gold… $2,052.55

That’s it for today… I was quite wordy this morning, just goes to show ya, that give me the time (like this past weekend) to think about stuff, and you get a lot of words! Congrats to the Texans, Chiefs, Packers, and Lions who won their playoff games this past weekend… Two more games today…  Our Blues had been playing better hockey lately, but lost at home to the Bruins Saturday night… UGH!  More rain is forecast for all day today down south… UGH! This has been the worst weather January that I’ve experienced down here this year, but I’m not going to complain about it, like I said above it was negative 5 degrees at home yesterday…  74 degrees sounds pretty good when you consider the rest of the country is freezing right now…  The Beautiful Dusty Springfield takes us to the finish line today with her song: You Don’t Have To Say You Love me…. I hope you have a Marvelous Monday, today, and enjoy your holiday if you get one today, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar drifts on Wednesday, and gets sold in the overnight markets
• Where’s the Gold?

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! I tuned into a channel last night that was televising our St. Louis U. Billikens VS St. Joe’s basketball game… The Bills were down big in the first half, and made a run in the second half, and after draining some 3 pointers, they took the lead, late, and won the game! What a comeback for the home team! I don’t have much to talk about today, so this letter should be short-n-sweet… Well, at least short, I don’t know about sweet! HA!  Smokey Bill Robinson greets me this morning with his song: Cruisin’  ( l love Smokey Robinson’s voice) 

Well… Yesterday, in the early trading, Gold was up a few bucks, but as soon as the NY trading opened, the short paper traders went to town on Gold, and send it down $5.70 on the day… Silver also saw interference, and ended the day down 2-cents… Gold closed yesterday at $2,025.30, and Silver closed at $22.96…  To illustrate what I saw yesterday, Gold was down $5.70 on the day, but that was $16 off Gold’s intraday high… And Silver had a similar intraday high that was 21-cents higher!  Oh, those dirty rotten scoundrels! I say we hang them from a tree… I say we beat them up, then hang them from a tree… 

You know that it’s a short paper trading driving the prices of the metals when the dollar isn’t involved one iota!  The BBDXY yesterday saw ½ of an index point gain on the day… No Big shakes here. So, once again the short paper traders were being bold and brazen in their attack on the metals, even without help from dollar strength. 

There was news from Australia last night that their Trade Surplus soared in the last month… And that lit a fire under the A$ for a bit, but then it calmed down and only showed a slight gain on the day… 

The price of Oil slipped a bit, and ended the day trading with a $71 handle… And the 10-year Treasury remained in its recent range at 4.02%… 

In The overnight markets last night…. The dollar was sold to the tune of 2 index points in the BBDXY… I see this back and forth up and down trading in the dollar right now to be a case of traders not really knowing where to go with the dollar… They know in their heart of hearts that they need to sell dollars, but there’s always that sneaky PPT out there to bash any selling that’s done… How much longer can this go on?  Well, probably longer than we care to deal with it that’s sure, but, it will end, and when it does it will end in tears… for the dollar bugs that is… 

Gold is up $7 to start the day today, and silver is up 9-cents… Now the game is to see if Gold can hold its gains when the NY traders arrive, or if it be attacked once again…  The price of Oil remains in the range and trades this morning with a $72 handle, and the 10-year didn’t move overnight and starts the day with a 4.00% yield… 

Well, I was taken back by recent comments from Janet Yellen, U.S. Treasury Sec. who said that the U.S. had entered a “soft landing” for the economy…  She obviously didn’t see this report on zerohedge.com  “We experienced a tremendous amount of economic turbulence in 2023, but at least the employment market was relatively stable.

Unfortunately, that period of relative stability appears to be ending.

The pace of layoffs really seemed to pick up steam at the end of 2023, and the outlook for the coming year is not promising at all. In fact, a survey that was just conducted by Resume Builder discovered that a whopping 38 percent of U.S. companies anticipate that they will conduct layoffs in 2024…

38% of companies say they are likely to have layoffs in 2024

52% are likely to implement a hiring freeze in 2024

Half say anticipation of a recession is a reason for potential layoffs

4 in 10 say layoffs are due to replacing workers with artificial intelligence (AI)

3 in 10 companies reducing or eliminating holiday bonuses this year

If you currently have a job that you highly value, try to hold on to it as tightly as you can.

Because the employment market is starting to shift in a major way.”

Chuck again…  That’s some heavy stuff right there! And if you thought 2023 was tumultuous, it’ll have nothing on what’s going to go on in 2024… El Nino is causing major problems for weather in the South, and that’s going to seem like chicken feed to what goes on in the markets this year…  And that brings me to my usual question at this time, and that is: Got Gold? 

So, the Big News last night was that Alabama Head Coach, Nick Saban was going to retire…  So, 1. either that is really earth-shattering news, or 2. it was a slow news night… 

This was news last night… ” Federal investigation is looking for at least $75 million in missing silver and gold from a Delaware warehouse”….  And that got me thinking about Fort Knox, and the supposed holdings of U.S. physical Gold… What would happen if the auditors (and the auditors haven’t been here in decades) showed up, opened the vault, and the vault was empty?  OMG!   Now, do NOT go around saying that I said the Vault at Fort Knox was empty!  I was just thinking about the Delaware Vault, and carrying it over to Fort Knox… 

But with all the Gold Swaps that have taken place through the years, one has to wonder just how much Gold remains in the vault at Fort Knox…. 

Another happening around the world had me thinking about what would happen if it occurred here? I’m talking about in Ecuador, a TV station was taken over by men with guns and bombs in an attack on the station. I know that happens in 3^rd world countries and not here, where we live in a country of laws… and law abiding people, but then remember the riots from a few years ago? They could have easily gone further to be like Ecuador… think about that for a minute, now that’s scary stuff!  

Boy, am I really dark and jaded this morning? I don’t like being like this, so I had better stop here! 

Well, the U.S. Data Cupboard today, finally has something for us… First up is the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims…  After last week’s lower number (202,000) because of a shortened holiday week, the previous week, this report should be a doozy…   And then second today, we’ll see the STUPID CPI for Dec… No matter that the markets know that this isn’t the Fed Heads’ preferred inflation calculation, they still get goosebumps when it prints… Not me, but the markets all seem to think that this a real inflation calculation, when in reality it is nothing but a bunch of gobbledygook! Lies, and hedonic adjustments dominate the report… 

To recap… The dollar rallied on Wednesday but didn’t add to its gains in the overnight markets.  and the short paper traders went bold and brazen taking down Gold yesterday without the cover of dollar strength… UGH!  The Aussies printed a Trade Surplus in Dec, and saw a brief upward move in the A$…  And U.S. employers are thinking about a lot of layoffs and other things that are bad for employees in 2024… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, I’ve told you about how Russia was working on leaving SWIFT and starting their own clearing system, in the past… And apparently now is the time that they are going to implement thier new system… That story can be found here:  Russia And Iran Switch From SWIFT| Countercurrents

Or, here’s your snippet: “Iran and Russia have officially switched from the West’s SWIFT financial clearing system to a direct interbank transfer mechanism, the deputy head of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) has said.

Mohsen Karimi told Iranian state television on Sunday that the system allows companies in both countries to trade in their respective national currencies instead of using the dollar or euro, FARS news agency reported.

“We have linked the financial correspondence networks of the two countries,” he explained.

“This means that the banks of our two countries no longer need Switzerland to communicate with each other and commercial banks of both countries can establish brokerage relations with each other. The [Iranian] exporter can now charge the Russian side in rials and receive money from them via Russian banks in Iran,” Karimi added, noting that the system also allows for payments in Russian rubles.”

Chuck again… These may seem like little gains for these countries, but in reality, they are HUGE! it means that they no longer have need for holding dollars, folks… And to me, that’s HUGE! 

Market Prices 1/11/2024: American Style: A$ .6709, kiwi .6254, C$ .7482, euro 1.0982, sterling 1.2767, Swiss $1.1764, European Style: rand 18.5888, krone 10.3011, SEK 10.2051, forint 345.05, zloty 3.9618, koruna 22.4725, RUB 88.81, yen 145.36, sing 1.3292, HKD 7.8181, INR 83.03, China 7.1595, peso 17.00, BRL 4.8838, BBDXY 1,223.65, Dollar Index 102.24, Oil $72.83, 10-year 4.00%, Silver $23.05, Platinum $928.00, Palladium $1,016.00, Copper $3.79, and Gold… $2,033.87

That’s it for today… The NFL Playoffs begin this weekend, and there will be plenty of games to view… One game, the Kansas City Chiefs VS Miami Dolphins will not be on network TV… You’ll have to subscribe to Peacock to watch it.. I find this appalling… Only the two local markets will be able to watch the game on regular TV…  I realize that it was all about money, but C’mon NFL… and NBC… don’t you make enough money now without putting the screws to fans? I’m just asking…. We had lunch with good friends, Karen and Pete yesterday up in Suart, Fla.  I always enjoy their company… The Stylistics take us to the finish line today with their song: Betcha By Golly, Wow…  (they don’t write songs with lyrics like these anymore) … I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a Fantastico Friday tomorrow… Tomorrow is son Andrew’s Birthday! Happy Birthday Bud!   And please Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• The dollar gets bought on Tuesday…
• Copper sees short paper trading too…

Good Day… And A Wonderful Wednesday to you! A real bummer of a day yesterday down south… The overcast, windy weather remained in place, thus making it difficult to sit outside and enjoy the sun… In fact, it made it impossible to do that! UGH! I’ve been here a week now and have only seen the sunshine two days… And then it was fleeting…  Back home they have been experiencing like weather with lots of rain and cold temps… Like the song goes, “The sky won’t snow, and the sun won’t shine”… Stevie Wonder greets me this morning with his song: Superstition…  Stevie Ray Vaughan did a great job remaking this song too… 

Well… not being data dependent is what the currency traders were yesterday, as they bought dollars to the tune of 5 BBDXY index points! I didn’t see the dollar strength in the euro trading, as the single unit remained above 1.09… Gold started the day up and ended the day up, but not as much as earlier in the day, with Gold’s gain at $2.10, and Silver started the day flat, and ended the day down 12-cents… Gold closed at $2,030.20, and Silver closed at $22.98.

While Gold is hanging out here, you might as well call my metals guru, Tim Smith at 1-800-926-4922, and have him buy some physical Gold for your account… I’m just saying…

One metal, Copper, has seen some wild trading in recent days… Just last week Copper was as high as $3.86, and today it is $3.76… The well known shortages in Copper are out there folks, and the only thing keeping Copper from running higher is the short paper traders… Their efforts with Copper haven’t gone unnoticed by me… I’m just saying…

The price of Oil remained range bound, and ended the day with a $72 handle yesterday…  Bonds seem to be in a range above 4% right now, not knowing which way to go…  I’ve got a great report and something that I’ve been talking about a lot, in the FWIW article today… You DO NOT WANT TO MISS THAT!

In the overnight markets last night…. There wasn’t much oomph in the markets last night, as the dollar drifted lower, but with no conviction to really sell the currency. The BBDXY lost 2 index points last night, but like I said, there wasn’t much movement in the actual currencies, so I have concluded that there was no conviction to sell dollars last night…  No data, no currency direction…  That seems about right to me!  Gold is up $3 to start the day today, and Silver is up 2-cents… So, no great shakes there either… Hmmmm….  The price of Oil remains in the $72 handle, and bonds remain in their range of 4.00% to 4.05%, with the 10-year’s yield at 4.00% this morning. 

Well, did you hear this story that the SEC’s Twitter account was hacked, and the hackers sent out a Tweet that the Bitcoin ETF had been approved?  That sent shockwaves through the crypto market, until it was discovered that the SEC’s Twitter (X) account had been hacked…  

And that brings me to something that has been on my mind for ages now… Hackers…  Every day, I have to fish emails out of my email box that have nothing but bad intentions attached to them… Why? If we put these boys and girls behind the desk and told them to find a cure for cancer, they could probably do it!  Well, maybe be of help finding it, but still you get my point… Have them do something good for society, instead of wrecking it… I’ll get back to the markets now…

Well, word out this morning is that the Eurozone probably went through a recession in 2023… It’s amazing to me that these things get figured out months later, but it is, what it is…  I know one thing and that is that Eurozone inflation has dropped quickly… Probably too quickly, as it gives the Eurozone leaders a false sense of security, and a job well done… The European Central Bank (ECB ) is torn between two lovers here… one lover is that the would love to cut rates to boost the sluggish economy… the other lover is that they have a spine, and that spine tells them that they need to hold to tight monetary policies…  Torn between two lovers, feeling like a fool, loving both of you is breaking all the rules!   

The thing that keeps coming back to bite the ECB in the rear, is that the euro is the offset currency to the dollar, and just recent trading tells us that the euro will rise when the dollar get sold, no matter what the situation in the Eurozone warrants…  At year-end, when the dollar was on the ropes, doing the rope-a-dope, the euro climbed to the 1.10 handle… I’m just saying… 

Longtime readers know that I adore Stephanie Pomboy, and the work she does at macromavens.com …  She’s always on Twitter giving us little messages that are like dropping little grenades along the path as she walks… Yesterday, she was talking about Leveraged Loans let’s listen in: “Leveraged loans backing LBOs dried up in 3Q as investor appetite for risk disappeared. Indeed, the cost of LBO financing skyrocketed in terms of interest rates.” This is important because these Leveraged Loans keep the economy moving… We’ll have to keep an eye on this going forward…

The U.S. Data Cupboard had the Nov. Trade Deficit for our viewing yesterday… The Nov. Trade Deficit was $63.2 Billion… Recall that in Nov. the dollar was still holding to its gains, but was slipping quickly… I would think that the December Trade Deficit will be much larger that in Nov. because the dollar was much weaker in December… I’m just saying… You know I’ve explained this before, but here goes again… A weak currency will invite inflation to come to its shores from other countries… And a strong currency does wonders for combating inflation for a country… 

So, going back a couple of years, we had a strong currency, and strong inflation!  Imagine if you will what Inflation would have run up to, if the dollar was weak, like it was in the 70’s when inflation ran 14%… 

To recap… The dollar kicked some tail yesterday, rising 5 index points in the BBDXY… I have no idea why the dollar bugs were buying dollars yesterday, seems to be window dressing to me…  Curb appeal, and other descriptions come in play here… Gold gained $2 yesterday… And $3 overnight…  The dollar drifted downward in the overnight markets last night. The Eurozone probably went through a recession in 2023, according to reports this morning… But the euro remains the offset currency to the dollar, and that recession news isn’t enough to stop the euro from rising, when the dollar is getting sold… 

For What it’s Worth… Well, I’ve talked about how I thought the bond market rally, since the thoughts of a Fed /Cabal/ Cartel rate cut was coming, was a bear market rally…   And there are some real good reasons for me thinking that, and they can be found here: Bond Market Rally Overlooks a $2 Trillion Debt Problem – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “Investors are ignoring the cloud of rising deficits around the world.

Right around the start of November, two words suddenly disappeared from the chatter in the bond market: debt supply. As bond prices surged across the developed world day after day, sending yields tumbling and handing investors some much-needed profits, the angst about soaring budget deficits melted away.

But for how long?

Over the next several weeks, governments from the US, UK and the eurozone will start flooding the market with bonds at a clip rarely seen before. Saddled with the kind of bloated deficits that were once unthinkable, these countries — along with Japan — will sell a net $2.1 trillion of new bonds to finance their 2024 spending plans, a 7% increase from last year, according to estimates from Bloomberg Intelligence.

With most central banks no longer hoovering up bonds to bolster economic growth, governments must now entice more buy orders out of investors around the world. To do so, the thinking goes, they will have to dangle higher yields, just as they did when concern about ballooning government debt loads was amplified this summer by Fitch Ratings’ move to strip the US of its AAA credit rating. The rout that resulted sent the rate on benchmark 10-year Treasuries above 5% for the first time in 16 years.

Those jitters may have faded of late — primarily because slowing inflation prompted investors to suddenly fixate on the idea that central banks will start cutting interest rates — but many bond-market analysts argue that, given the current supply-and-demand dynamics, it’s only a matter of time before the nervous chatter picks up. Indeed, bond yields have already lurched higher this year.”

Chuck again… Well, it does my heart good to hear someone else making the same arguments about a bond rally… 

Market Prices 1/10/2024: American Style: A$.6709, kiwi .6235, C$ .7476, euro 1.0946, sterling 1.2722, Swiss $1.1725, European Style: rand 18.6277, krone 10.3227, SEK 10.2336, forint 345.01, zloty 3.9637, koruna 22.4763, RUB 89.28, yen 145.05, sing 1.3310, HKD 7.8204, INR 83.03, China 7.1692, peso 16.96, BRL 4.8946, BBDXY 1,225., Dollar Index 102.49, Oil $72.40, 10-year 4.00%, Silver $22.96, Platinum $932.00, Palladium $996.00, Copper $3.76, and Gold… $2.033.83

That’s it for today…. Well, this is a very important message to my readers… The move to Battle Bank has hit a snag, and so for now, you’ll need to go to www.dailypfennig.com to read the letter each day… that is until it shows up in your email box!  I watched our Blues game last night on my iPad, they looked pretty good, but, still have problems putting the biscuit in the basket! We had major storms go through Florida last night, reminded me of early summer in St. Louis, where we can watch the storms come right up the I-44 corridor… These storms came from the S. West, which is better than coming from the ocean! The sun is rising this morning and it can be seen! YAHOO!  The El Nino weather pattern doesn’t forecast regular weather for Florida this winter… UGH!   So, I’ll take the sunny days, with extra vigor!  Bill Withers takes us to the finish line today with his song: Lovely Day…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday, and please, please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Metals attempt to come back from the engineered takedown…
• Oh, those darn downward revisions… Chuck has warned us!

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! We start today by saying congratulations to Michigan University for their win last night in the College Football Playoff Championship Game. The game started out like a blowout for Michigan, but Washington fought back, but, by game’s end, Michigan extended its lead and won the game. it’s another overcast day here in the South… UGH! I need the sunshine! C’Mon mother nature, give us some sunshine! The weather down here has not been the same as previous years here, winter does exist down here, and this year, it’s hanging on longer that usual… I still only wear shorts and polo shirts, but at night I have to put on a pullover… Oh well, it’s still warmer than back home!  A Flock of Seagulls greet me this morning with their song: Space Age Love Song… 

Well, the dollar remained adrift at sea for most of yesterday, only turning downward near the end of the day… The BBDXY ended up 3 index points lower, and the euro climbed higher in the 1.09 handle…  I read a report that talked about how traders, etal, are looking at the jobs number from last Friday, more closely… Hey! do you think that they have read the Pfennig enough through the years, that they decided to look under the hood for once? I kid… because where has the looking under the hood been all these years? Why have they decided to look under the hood now? Oh well, they are looking under the hood, and that meant that they didn’t believe the BLS’s jobs report, and that meant sell dollars… The euro, sterling, Swiss, and more all took a flyer to move higher VS the dollar yesterday. 

Gold started the day yesterday, down $25, and then began a slow rise to get back to zero… It was a valiant try, but Gold fell short, losing $17 on the day to close at $2,028.17. Silver started the day yesterday down 28-cents and ended the day down just 8-cent… Silver closed at $23.10… Now, we have to wonder if the bold and brazen attack on the metals by the short paper traders is finished now?   I sure hope so! 

The price of Oil got bad news yesterday, when the Saudis announced price cuts on Oil due to the softness in the demand for Texas Tea… Bubbling Gold… With the advent of electric cars, the price of Oil isn’t held in such high regard any longer… But, here’s a ditty for you… I read a report yesterday that talked about a town in Sweden that had bought all electric buses… And now that the weather has turned so cold, the buses won’t work!  How apropos, eh?  And… The 10-year’s yield backed off a bit yesterday, and fell from 4.05% to 4.01%… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar recovered 2 index points in the BBDXY Index last night, and one has to wonder if that will carry over to today’s trading in the West? The Fed Heads have said that they are data dependent, so will the markets follow the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel?  That would make sense to me…  Gold has added $7 to its price in the early trading today, and Silver is flat to start the day.  The bold and brazen takedown of the metals yesterday has given all of you who have procrastinated about buying metals, the opportunity to buy at a cheaper price… And that’s all I can say nicely about the takedown…  I told you yesterday that the Commercial Traders were long to the max with Gold futures… So, either they held on for dear life yesterday, or they added to the selling… We won’t see their positions until later in the week… 

The price of Oil remains range bound inching higher this morning to trade with a $72 handle.  And bonds are bonds… with the 10-year’s yield inching higher to 4.05% this morning… 

I’ve got a real doozy for you in the FWIW section today, regarding the Jobs Jamboree, and all the revisions that go unnoticed by the markets… So, stay tuned, same bat time, same bat channel! 

Ok… so what’s going on with bonds these days? since the first week of Rocktober, the 10-year’s yield has dropped from 5% to 3.80% last week… Since the start of the year though, the 10-year’s yield is back on the rise and ended yesterday at 4.01%… To get a better understanding what’s going on in the minds of bond traders, Bloomberg.com has a snippet from Bill Gross, the “Bond King” when he started his bond fund: PIMCO…   here’s we go: “Fresh from getting a big call right on yields toward the end of last year, former bond king Bill Gross just signaled he is now steering clear of Treasuries.

Ten-year US debt is “overvalued,” with similar-dated Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities at a 1.80% yield the better choice if one needs to buy bonds. “I don’t,” he wrote in a post on X.”

Chuck again… So, there! I said it weeks ago, that this bond rally was a bear market rally, and now Bill Gross agrees with me… 

And I do believe that inflation is going to remain sticky, and rise again in the near future, especially if the Fed Heads do begin to cut rates again… 

Traveling down to Australia this morning, we find that Retail Sales in Nov were at a 2% rise, VS 1.2% expected… That was responsible for the A$’s gain overnight… When the U.S. dollar was getting sold at year-end, the A$ had risen to .68-cents, but since, with all the dollar buying early this year, the A$ dropped to .6683…  So, this unsuspected rise in Retail Sales has the A$ back on the rally tracks. 

Here in the U.S. Consumer Credit (read debt) printed yesterday for November, and here are the numbers from MarketWatch.com : Total consumer credit rose $23.7 billion in November, up from a $5.8 billion increase in the prior month, the Federal Reserve said Monday. That translates into a 5.7% annual rate, up from a revised 1.4% rise in the prior month.

Economists had been expecting an $8 billion increase, according to the Wall Street Journal forecast.

Key data: Revolving credit, like credit cards, rose sharply at a 17.7% rate after a 2.7% gain in the prior month. That was the biggest gain since March 2022.”

Chuck again… here we go with these credit card debts again… Those are scary stuff in my mind folks… 20% and higher interest rates on debts carried over is a real problem for consumers… So… Christmas is over, and now the bills come in the mail… This is real life folks… And now U.S. consumers have to deal with all their Christmas buying! 

And heading north from Australia, we somehow get to China… China’s debt has gotten very high, and some people may be thinking that I would be harping about their debt too… But, in this case, China is doing something about their debt, they are thinking of ways to grow to offset the debt… I’m talking about the Silk Road project that China has taken on… I’ve not talked about the Silk Road for some time now, as it continues to head west… But it’s a still a viable project for China, and Russia to that end, because it helps to spread the de-dollarization message. I just wonder how this will all turn out…  I saw this quote yesterday from Pepe Escobar, “Or to put it in Silk Road terms: while the dogs of war bark, lie, and steal, the Russia-China caravan strolls on.”  About says it all, eh?

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the Nov. Trade Deficit for our viewing… Yesterday, Fed Head, Bowman, said that she didn’t have a problem with rate cuts as long as inflation is under control….  See what she did there? She opened a door and left the door cracked open… Control… that’s the key word here… That’s a judgement call on what the Fed Heads call Control… So… she didn’t really say anything yesterday, other than she’s for a rate cut… More Stupid Fed Speak… Why can’t they just say what’s on their collective minds?  Oh, we know why they can’t, but C’mon give us a break here! 

To recap… The adrift at sea dollar finally took on some water yesterday, with the BBDXY losing 3 index points on the day. The euro climbed higher in the 1.09 handle, and all the rest of the currencies participated in gaining VS the dollar. Bill Gross tells us what he thinks of the 10-year Treasury’s yield… And chuck talks about inflation… again! Aussie Retail Sales surprised the markets, and U.S. consumer debt is soaring! 

For What It’s Worth… Longtime readers know that I’ve pointed out the irregularities of the BLS Jobs Jamboree each and every month that print these false reports… This article talks about how so many initial reports are revised downward but under the cover of darkness, and it can be found here: US Jobs Report: The gig is up! | Ainslie Bullion

Or, here’s your snippet: “Last Thursday’s US jobs report caused quite a stir – with the DXY at first rising to 103.1 on a figure of 216,000 against the 170,000 estimated. It was the reaction that followed, however, that is garnering the most attention. After 11 months of revisions in 2023, 10 of the 11 have been revised down.  Statistically there is a 1 in 1000 chance of this occurring, so when the DXY collapsed 2 hours later to 101.9, it appeared that traders were finally starting to question the legitimacy of US numbers.

Revision, Revision, Revision

In a recent post from End Wokeness they have broken down the current job market numbers, showing the specifics of the revisions. Thinking in probabilistic terms this is like getting 10 out of 11 heads in a game of heads and tails. As this data is assumed to be non-biased, you should be as likely to get a revision up as a revision down. Now the probability of this happening is 0.1%, a statistical unlikelihood which can only lead any logical person to one of two conclusions. Either Biden is one very lucky President with his Bidenonomics policies able to move unemployment numbers at will, or someone is cooking the books.

Breaking down the data

So why was the reaction so negative 2 hours after the report?  The numbers showed firstly the following:

November revision of -27,000 jobs and October revision -45,000

1.5 million loss in full time roles (you read that right!)

676,000 people leaving the labour force (labour rate has never recovered since Covid)

52,000 out of 216,000 government jobs created (24%)

8.6million (a record) number of people with 2 jobs which skews the unemployment rate with double counting

So nutting this out in plain speak… with 216,000 jobs created and 72,000 revised down, actual job gains were 144,000 – well below the 170,000 estimate. 1.5 million people lost their full-time job. These jobs were replaced with 1.644 million part time jobs, with 8.6 million people in the US currently willing to fill these jobs as a second job, skewing the unemployment rate of 3.7% but not being measured or reported. In fact reviewing a recent Biden tweet – “A record breaking Biden Economy in 2023” 2.7 million jobs were created…  It appears in December 1.7 million of those were part time, meaning no more than 1 million full time jobs could have been created in 2023 (but I’m sure there’s a revision in that…)”

Chuck again… I know, that’s a long snippet, but… I thought that since I’ve harped and yelled at the walls about the false numbers that the BLS prints each month, that some further proof was needed to be shown… 

Market Prices 1/9/2024: American Style: A$ .6696, kiwi .6243, C$ .7480, euro 1.0934, sterling 1.2721, Swiss $1.1735, European Style: rand 18.6734, krone 10.3615, SEK 10.2917, forint 346.36, zloty 3.9645, koruna 22.5528, RUB 89.85, yen 144.10, sing 1.3305, HKD 7.8148, INR 83.11, China 7.1624, peso 16.83, BRL 4.8745, BBDXY 1,223.78, Dollar Index 102.14, Oil $72.07, 10-year 4.05%, Silver $23.11, Platinum $947.00, Palladium $997.00, Copper $3.81, and Gold… $2,035.07

That’s it for today… Well, our place down here grew very quiet once out guests left yesterday, and it seemed empty… So, I reclined in my chair, and fell asleep for 4 hours! Crazy, eh?  We’re off to get a global entry status for Kathy this morning, I go in February to get mine.  37 days till pitchers and catchers report… I’m just saying… This coming Friday is my oldest son’s birthday… He was born during a snowstorm in 1982… And has grown to be a very well-respected gentleman…  An early Happy Birthday, Andrew!  Neil Young takes us to the finish line today, with his song: Harvest Moon… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today and will Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Dollar drifts at sea…
• U.S. Debt is like a frog in boiling water…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, we had visitors this past weekend, good friends, Gus and Diane, were here, and well, the weather didn’t cooperate… It was overcast, rainy and chilly… I know it seems strange to say chilly when it was 72, but… without sunshine, it was… The National College Football Championship game is tonight… Good luck to the teams, that are playing, Michigan and Washington… I would like to see Washington win, as I’m still on the fence as to whether Michigan should have been allowed to play in the playoffs to start… The Rascals greet me this morning with their hit song: A Beautiful Morning… 

Well, after a hell bent and whiskey bound start to the year, the dollar kind of backed off all the buying as the week ended… On Thursday morning, the BBDXY was 1,223.71… On Friday at the close the BBDXY was 1,224.14… So, the dollar was up less than 1/2 index point. The PPT had gone back into their cave, where they had crawled out of to intervene in the currency markets once again, last week. It’s getting to be a bad habit, that whenever the dollar begins to fade, and it appears the markets want to take it lower, the PPT steps in and buys dollars, with their Treasure Trove of : Exchange Stabilization Funds…   One of these days the PPT’s well will run dry, and then who’s going to be there to save the dollar? 

The price of Gold gained $2.10 on Thursday, and $2.20 on Friday, to close the week at $2,045.60… Silver saw a small gain of 2-cents on Thursday, and 18-cents on Friday to close the week at $23.19. Both metals were much higher both days, only to see the short paper traders enter the markets and reduce the gains the two metals had booked intraday. Again, one of these days, the short paper traders will have to eat their short trades, and take losses, and back out of their Ponzi Scheme, and when that finally happens, to the moon, Alice!   I’m just saying…

The price of Oil ended the week at $72.87, just a short hop, skip and jump from the $73 handle… the price of Oil has seemed to settle in right around $70-$73 for now… Biding its time before exploding higher… Well, that’s what I see for the price of Oil, what do you see? 

The 10-year moved back above the 4% yield level on Friday… The Jobs Jamboree which was lies, and more lies, said that 216,000 jobs were created in December… I would have to think that a majority of those jobs were temporary seasonal work… Now that Santa isn’t needed in the Food Court at the Mall any longer, he’ll be showing up for unemployment again… And that goes for Mrs. Claus in the bakery dept too!  

Anyway… the Jobs Jamboree basically told the bond boys to “wait, a minute, and not go so fast on that rate cut talk”… And so bonds got sold once again… 

In the overnight markets last night…. Oh my…. What are the short paper traders doing this morning? They have Gold down $25 in the early trading today, and Silver down 28-cents! Serenity now! I know that I said long ago that I wasn’t going to get upset with the dirty rotten scoundrels any longer, but this really got to me this morning… There’s no dollar rally going on, there’s no bond market rally going on, and the geopolitical problems seem to be escalating daily, but Gold can’t find a bid? Give me a break! This is so brazen and bold, that I do have to give the short paper traders credit for their intestinal fortitude!  

So, like I said there’s no dollar rally going on, the BBDXY is up just a smidgen this morning, and with no real economic news on the docket this morning, that’s the direction of the dollar for today… adrift at sea…  

Well, here’s a little ditty that seemed interesting to me… This is from Bloomberg.com “Non-commercial traders — a group that includes hedge funds, asset managers and other speculative market players — added to their short positions on the dollar in the week ended Tuesday, according to CFTC data compiled by Bloomberg. Roughly 96,800 contracts worth almost $10 billion are now tied to expectations that the US currency will fall, up more than 26,000 from the previous week and the most bearish since late August.”

Chuck again… Well, with the way the dollar began the year, on a tear, these boys and girls are probably second guessing their short positions… But not to fear, I’ve seen the dollar begin years strong before, and then suddenly fade, and truly expect that to happen again in 2024…. 

And after last week’s Jobs Jamboree, I would have to say that either the Fed Heads will have to delay any rate cut this year, or have to admit that they never were worried about the strong jobs market, and wage induced inflation… Now, which one do you think the Fed Heads will choose? Thank you Bob Barker, I’ll take what’s behind door #1… I was asked this question a couple of weeks ago regarding the Fed Heads potential rate cuts… I said then and I still stand by that statement, that I didn’t think the markets were correct in thinking that the Fed Heads would cut rates as soon as March 2024… I said that if anything, the earliest a rate cut could come is June, and by then who the heck knows what will be the financial situation in the U.S.?  Chances are, because I wear a silly grin, no wait! That’s not where you were going, Chuck! Chances are the rate cuts will not materialize in 2024… Then what happens to the dollar?  

I came across this headline in the Business Insider.com “The $34 trillion mountain of national debt is a ‘boiling frog’ situation for the US economy, JPMorgan warns”…

Yes, that’s the old adage about how if you put a frog in a pot of boiling water, he’ll jump out! But if you put him in a pot of warm water, and slowly turn up the heat, he will get boiled…  So, what JP Morgan is saying here is that the debt is slowly turning up the heat on the economy… YIKES!  You know, that when you hear a Big Box Broker/ Casino Bank talking about problems for the economy and debt, you know that there is a real problem out there! I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard on Friday had the aforementioned Jobs Jamboree… In addition the Jobs report showed that there had been a 4.1% increase in Hourly Wages in the past year… Well, if we use the real inflation data that John Williams computes for us that says that Consumer Inflation is running around 8%, then we can clearly see that wages aren’t keeping up with inflation… And that’s not good, folks… How long can U.S. Consumers keep reaching into savings, or running up debt on their Credit Cards, before this all comes crashing down?   I don’t know the answer to that question, but if I took a stab at answering it, I would say not past this year…  Uh-Oh!

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week, doesn’t have a lot of real economic data to print, until we get to our Tub Thumpin’ Thursday, when the Stupid CPI will print… Right now the so-called experts have CPI increasing month to month at .2%, and annualized CPI increasing .2% to 3.3%… See what I mean about how this report is plain Stupid? Calculated without hedonic measures, John Williams at www.shadowstats.com  compute CPI at 8%… not 3.3%… I’m just saying…

To recap… The dollar started the year last week on a tear… But by the end of the week, it was scratching and clawing for any upward movement, which turned out to be not really coming… Gold finally got its head above water on both Thursday and Friday last week, albeit by small amounts. Chuck points out that the non-commercial traders have built a strong long position in Gold… So, something has to shake out of this situation folks… 

For What It’s Worth…  The good folks at GATA sent me this on Sunday, and while reading it, I decided to feature it in my FWIW article today. This is an article about how Gold has outperformed stocks and bonds since the turn of the century, and it can be found here: Gold still outshining stocks and bonds since the turn of the century | Morningstar

Or, here’s your snippet: “Stocks outpaced gold in 2023, but the yellow metal still posted stronger annualized returns since the turn of the century, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices

No yield, no dividend, no problem?

That appears to be the case for gold when it comes to its performance against both stocks and bonds as the calendar flips ever deeper into the 21st century. The chart below from S&P Dow Jones Indices shows the relative performance of the yellow metal, as measured by Dow Jones Commodity Index Gold, versus the S&P 500 SPX, between Dec. 31, 1999, and Dec. 29, 2023.

Unlike some stocks, gold – like other commodities – pays no dividends. Unlike bonds, it pays no coupon. That’s often described as raising the opportunity cost of holding gold versus assets that produce some sort of yield. Still, DJCI Gold, which is designed to track the market via futures contracts (GC00), has outpaced both since the turn of the millennium.

Going back to the start of the century, DJCI Gold produced a 7.8% annual return, compared to a 7% return for the S&P 500 during that time, said Brian Luke, head of commodities, real and digital assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in a blog post this week.

Adjusting for volatility, gold has provided slightly better risk-adjusted returns than stocks, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.48 versus 0.45 for equities, Luke wrote. The ratio compares the return on an investment with its risk.

Bonds aren’t even close when it comes to annualized returns. The iBoxx USD Overall Index, which measures investment-grade government and corporate bonds, has seen an average return of 4.1% since 1999, according to Luke, though its Sharpe ratio is slightly better at 0.89.”

Chuck again… Well, I had always suspected that to be true, and now I have the data and the facts to prove me correct! 

Market Prices 1/8/2023: American Style: A$ .6683. kiwi .6216. C$ 7470, euro 1.0938, sterling 1.2705, Swiss $1.1741, European Style: rand 18.7429, krone 10.4218, SEK 10.2864, forint 345.29, zloty 3.9753, koruna 22.3997, RUB 91.06, yen 144.56, sing 1.3325, HKD 7.8073, INR 83.13, China 7.1623, peso 16.88, BRL 4.8889, BBDY 1,224.98, Dollar Index 102.49, Oil $73.06, 10-year 3.05%, Silver $22.91, Platinum $954.00, Palladium $1,017.00, Copper $3.80, and Gold… $2,020.18

That’s it for today… Well, our friends go home today… so sad… back to the cold of the north!  I saw where the St. Louis region got a dusting of snow last week… I get the feeling that the weather pattern is about to change again, and we’ll start having colder winters up north, with more snow… The NFL Playoffs are set, and start this coming Saturday… Why on earth are some of the playoff games only on Peacock, a streaming station?  I do believe that the NFL is shooting themselves in the foot on this… I’m just saying… Our Blues have won 2 games in a row… They changed their head coach, and they seem to be playing better… Go Blues!  And there are 38 days until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training! The countdown has begun! For me at least!  HA! Doucette takes us to the finish line today with their song: Mama Let Him Play…  And with that I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the interference in the markets has been quite prevalent…
• Earthquake in Japan, deep sixes the rate hike thoughts…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well my trip down to the South was delayed, of course, and we didn’t pull into our place until after 1 AM… I’m beat! I don’t know what it is about flying, but I always feel beat after arriving at my destination. So… Here I am… It’s very early, and the shutters that we closed before leaving in Nov. are still closed… We would have opened them last night, but it was too late for such noise. The PPT was back at work the first 2 days of the year, so we have that to talk about this morning, along with some other things that crossed my mind while traveling yesterday… King Crimson greets me this morning with their song: In The Court of the Crimson King… A rock classic for sure!

Well… Not only was the PPT in making sure the dollar didn’t fall any further the last two days, the short paper traders were at it again too! First they took Gold by $4.50 Tuesday, and then another $18 yesterday… Gold closed yesterday at $2,041.49… Silver was also taken to the woodshed the last two days, with Tuesday’s loss of 13.5-cents and then a whopping 65-cents yesterday. Silver closed yesterday at $23.01…  UGH!  

The price of Oil traded throughout the day yesterday trying to get back to $73, but fell short, and ended the day trading with a $72 handle… Bonds are still wishy washy, turbulent and not knowing which way to go, and the 10-year ended the day at 3.91% yield. 

In the overnight markets last night…Well, apparently the foreign markets didn’t get the memo that the dollar bugs were back buying dollars, with the PPT’s backing, because the dollar drifted last night, and didn’t add to the day’s shenanigans. In fact the dollar lost 1 index point in the BBDXY overnight… So, maybe that’s a signal that the all-clear horn has sounded, and the PPT has gone back to their lair, I guess we’ll see for sure when the U.S. boys and girls return to their desks…  

The price of Oil finally climbed back over the $73 handle last night, and the 10-year’s yield rose to 3.96%… Bonds are a mixed bag-o-nuts right now, and I wouldn’t touch them with your ten-foot pole!   

You know, the news from Japan over the weekend was horrible. The earthquake they experienced was strong, and it has caused considerable damage in Japan… So, other than the horrible loss of lives, the markets have done a 180 on the Bank of Japan’s potential rate hike… That thought has been put to bed, for now, and the selling of the yen has replaced it… Goes to show you that all the plans of mice and men… right? 

Well… congratulations U.S. Congress people… You made it to $34 Trillion! Yes, it was reported yesterday that, “The total US national debt spiked by $1.0 trillion in 15 weeks since September 15, to $34.0 trillion, according to the Treasury Department’s figures this afternoon. In the seven months since the debt ceiling was lifted, the national debt spiked by $2.5 trillion.”

And that brings me back to what I told you back when the debt ceiling was kicked further down the road, that the debt accumulation would spiral upward quickly because of the all the debt that was on hold…  So, here we are already with $1 Trillion in debt in the first 3 months of the fiscal year… Oh my! 

Well, Bill Bonner of www.bonnerprivateresearch.com had something to say about all this new debt, let’s listen in: “A long-held guess here at BPR is that the US would eventually follow Argentina on the road to ruin…with high levels of corruption and inflation. Amid all the noise and to-do of 2023, it was hard to follow the tune. But in the deep background, the tango beat grew stronger.  

Stocks hit a high note; wars and massacres continued; US politics degenerated into buffoonery; inflation eased off. Over the course of the last two administrations, 2017-2024, US debt increased from $19.9 trillion to $33.9 trillion – or at the rate of $2 trillion per year.  Last October and November set a new debt record – with a deficit of $383 billion for the first two months of the fiscal year, or $2.3 trillion annualized. No attack on the US. No depression. No emergency…not even a bad hair day…and yet, US politicians spent money as if they were Argentines! “

Chuck again… Say it ain’t so, Joe! We can’t be following the Argentines can we? Oh, yes we most certainly could be…  I’m just saying

And knowing all of this should put a bee in the bonnet of many investors that have shunned physical Gold (& Silver) But, as a good friend told me recently after meeting with his investment manager, “I asked him if I could buy Gold in my account, and he told me “we have no way of doing that”!  So this means if you have your investments handled by a agent at a Big Brokerage Firm, you’ll have to withdraw some funds, and buy it on your own…   

And you had better buy it very soon, because even though Gold has backed off from its lofty figure of last week, it will soon revisit that, and more, if things go the way I see them going in 2024…  

And the good folks at GATA sent me this note yesterday, “Investors flocked to gold in record numbers in 2023 as global economic turbulence triggered a flight to safety, according to the Royal Mint.The number of people buying gold and precious metal bars and coins jumped by 7% year-on-year, surpassing the highs of the 2020 lockdown investing boom.”

And yet… Gold only had a 13% gain in 2023… I know I told you on Tuesday that Gold’s gain in 2023 was only 3%… But I had looked at the number incorrectly…  You would think that with a 7% jump in physical gold buying in 2023, the gain would have been greater… right? But we all know what’s holding Gold back… now don’t we?

The U.S. Data Cupboard had the ISM manufacturing index for Dec on Tuesday, and you may recall me telling you that I thought it would continue to show contraction, with a number below 50… And that it did with 47.2 showing… Today’s Data Cupboard has the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and the ADP Employment Report, which is showing that it could be 130,000, and then tomorrow the Jobs Jamboree prints for December, and who knows what the BLS has up their sleeve! It will be something interesting for sure… but be certain that it’s full of lies, lies, and more lies… 

To recap… Ever since the new year began the interference in the metals and the dollar has been at an all-time high! Or at least that is what it seems!  Gold has lost quite a bit of ground from its lofty figure of year end… And the dollar has won back some of the lost ground it has succumbed to in recent months, with the PPT in buying dollars to save it from more humiliation… Gold has a record year of physical buying in 2023… So, put that in your pipe and smoke it, price manipulators! 

For What It’s Worth… Well, I decided to go a different route today, and will focus on health… You know, I’ve told you that I eliminated sweets from my diet 4 years ago, now… And then I read this article and thought, well, I’m one step ahead! This is about sugar in your diet and it can be found here: Dr. Says Quitting Sugar Can Stop Most Chronic Diseases (needtoknow.news)

Or, here’s your snippet: “Dr. Robert Lustig, MD, is a retired professor at the University of California, San Francisco and specializes in the field of neuroendocrinology. He explained the dangers of consuming sugar and said that it poisons mitochondria that causes a decrease in the energy that powers our cells. Sugar is not a food because it inhibits growth and energy production. Lustig says that sugar feeds cancer, and it dramatically raises the risk for Alzheimer’s Disease, cardiovascular disease, and other metabolic diseases. He said that if people eat a real food diet, most chronic diseases go away.

Dr. Lustig said that in the 1960’s, the sugar industry paid $6,500 to Fred Stare, the chairman of the Department of Nutrition at the Harvard School of Public Health, and his associate Mark Hegsted, who later became the head of the US Department of Agriculture, to exonerate sugar and instead blame saturated fat for negative health effects. They were paid to write false review articles in the New England Journal of Medicine that were peer reviewed.”

Chuck again… I didn’t completely eliminate sugars 4 years ago, I still use creamer in my coffee… But, I’m buying sugar-free creamer now, so that will complete the circle!  

Market Prices 1/5/2024: American Style: A$ .6726, kiwi .6249, C$ .7499, euro 1.0953, sterling 1.2694, Swiss $1.1764, European Style: rand 18.6552, krone 10.2941, SEK 10.2143, forint 345.78, zloty 3.9680, koruna 22.5078, RUB 91.22, yen 144.18, sing 1.3279, HKD 7.8082, INR 83.23, China 7.1510, peso 17.0005, BRL 4.9110, BBDXY 1,223.71, Dollar Index 102.41, Oil $73.46, 10-year 3.96%, Silver $20.98, Platinum $972.00, Palladium $1,068.00, Copper $3.87, and Gold… $2,045.84

That’s it for today and this week… Well, not only am I in my winter home now, but I’m back with my good friend, Frank Trotter, and being sponsored by Battle Bank… It’s been a long time coming, it’s been a long time gone… But we’re back together! YAHOO! Well, the National Championship for college football will be played Monday Night… Should be a real barn burner! The Uber driver last night, saw that I was wearing my Mizzou Tigers baseball cap, and said, “how about those Tigers beating The Ohio State!?” I said, MIZ baby! Fantasy Football leagues should be have wrapped up their seasons last week, as this week is the last week of football, and those teams that guaranteed a spot in the playoffs win or lose, will not play their stars the whole game if any of the game… The Electric Light Orchestra (ELO) takes us to the finish line today with their song: Can’t Get You Out Of My Head….  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a Fantastico Friday tomorrow… And please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler