Author: admin

• the dollar inches higher on Wednesday
• Gold & Silver are subjected to another short paper trading raid!

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Yesterday was a rotten day, weather wise here in the Deep South… Rain and chilly weather took place all day… UGH!  But the silver lining was that Kathy, and I made the trek north to Stuart Fla, where a good friend lives, and we talked about all kinds of stuff for hours! Thank you, Walt, for your excellent hosting!  The Neon Trees greet me this morning with their one-hit wonder song: Everybody Talks… 

Well, the dollar didn’t excite anyone yesterday by moving in either direction, although the BBDXY did manage to eke out a 1 index point gain. I really do believe that the markets are trying to work through the fact that the new POTUS said that he will add tariffs to the imports from Canada and Mexico, but not China at this time…. The euro held onto the 1.04 figure even with the BBDXY Gaining 2 index points that last two trading sessions I forgot to mention yesterday, when talking about the currencies that the Russian Ruble is the best performing currency of the emerging markets sector, gaining 10% in recent trading… It’s still halfway around the world from the price of the ruble when I first started talking about it which was 35… It now trades just below 100… They have a tough row to hoe, to get back to 35! 

The price of Gold started the day, up $10 and ended the day up $13 to close at $2,757.90… And Silver started the day down 11-cents, and ended the day down just 2-cents to close at $30.86… I came across an article on Kitco.com that I’m going to feature in the FWIW section today, so stay tuned, same bat time, same bat channel… Don’t touch that dial! 

The price of oil slipped back by a buck yesterday and ended the day trading with a $75 handle. The U.S. Treasury 10-year’s yield rose yesterday to 4.61%… Maybe the Fed Heads got concerned that the public was catching on as to who was buying the large quantities of bonds….. Nah…. They aren’t that smart to figure that out! 

In The Overnight Markets Last Night….  the dollar remained trading at 1,303 in the BBDXY index… The euro remained above 1.04, and the oft forgotten Brazilian real has moved below 6 for the first time in a month full of Sundays….  Remember the real is a European Priced currency, which means the lower the price the better the return VS the dollar.  I don’t feel the dollar bugs have any idea which way the dollar should be going right now… And that’s a problem for the dollar…. We’ll have to wait this one out to see which way the dollar goes, but to me it should be going down, in the face of the already announced Tariffs…. I’m just saying….

Well, I warned everyone that we should have left sleeping dogs asleep…. The short paper traders were bright eyed, and bushy tailed this morning, and began taking down Silver from the get-go…  Gold is getting caught up in the raid on Silver and is down $16 to start the day today, while Silver’s loss is 61-cents!  The folks at Kitco would never bring themselves to call the raid a short paper trading intervention… Instead, they call this sell off a “correction”… I would say that 61-cents is more than a “correction”… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $75 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury saw its yield rise again and begins today trading with a 4.65% yield…. 

This trading in the 10-year (and other bonds) is a prime example of why intervention doesn’t work in the long run… Yes, it does deliver some short-term relief, but in the end the entity spent a ton of money intervening, only to see the prevailing trend come right back after the dust settles…. 

Well, the dolts at the BLS have changed the calculation for the STUPID CPI… Again!  here’s the skinny from zerohedge.com “The FED changed the definition of CPI now to exclude food (groceries), fuel, health insurance, tax, and increased costs of goods and services which are arbitrarily assigned a value.  Has your cost of living only increased by 2.6% per year over the last 5 years as stated by the FED?  Has your cost of health insurance only gone up 2.6% per year?  Have your groceries only gone up 2.6% per year?  How about your rent?  The purchasing power of the U.S Dollar has declined by at least 7.5% compounded per year over the last 5 years.  

 Inflation is the devaluation of your purchasing power, and the CPI is the Ultimate Big Lie.”

Chuck again, you see what I mean about the hedonic adjustments?  This calculation is utterly ridiculous and has been for years, but now it’s even worse! Why on earth would anyone pay attention to this report now?  Excluding groceries? Health Insurance? Fuel?  They must be missing something here, why didn’t they just include everything in their exclusions? 

This article really got me riled up and I need to calm down… SERENITY NOW! 

I don’t have much more for you this morning, The newswires are full of writers opining about what they think will happen with the Trump Tariffs, and others opining about how they see Gold trading at $3,000 this year, and so on….  We’ve talked about all that’s out there right now, and I’m not in the mood to rehash it again! So, as my good friend, and former Big Boss Frank Trotter is known to say: Onward and Upward! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the leading Indicators and once again they printed negative at -.1%….  I said yesterday that this economic report had printed negative for so long that for it not to print negative would be BIG NEWS!  Today’s Cupboard already printed the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and they inched higher to 223,000 for the last week… No biggie… 

To recap…. The dollar inched higher again yesterday by 1 index point…  Gold gained $13 yesterday, but has given that back and more this morning as the short paper traders do their “thing”… Silver is down 61-cents as it appears the short paper traders were concentrating on taking down Silver….  The BLS has Chuck all riled up this morning, along with the short paper traders…. He’s exclaiming SERENITY NIOW!

For What It’s Worth…. Well, like I said above this article was on Kitco.com and featured Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. Mr. Melek talks about how the tariffs could affect the metals…. And it can be found here: Trump tariffs could have a massive impact on precious metals prices, but not the way many think – TD Securities’ Melek | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “Malek believes the tariffs would have a very significant impact on precious metals prices, though not in the way many market experts have suggested, but more in terms of rising demand for the monetary metals to protect against skyrocketing inflation.

“If we do see these broad tariffs against commodities, against manufactured goods, ultimately I equate them to a negative supply shock,” he said. “In essence, aggregate prices take a lift almost immediately. Some get fully paid by the U.S. consumer, some of the incidences of these tariffs get passed on to producers, but overall, prices move higher.”

“Now, it depends… what is the Fed going to do?” Melek emphasized. “If the Federal Reserve accommodates the shock – in essence, it gets worried about the negative impact on employment, and let’s say it lowers the rate a lot at a time when you have inflation from these tariffs – you could have a bit of an early 1980s, [late] 1970s phenomenon where you have a supply shock from tariffs and then you have monetary policy that accommodates it, and then you have an inflation problem, probably not only in the United States, but globally.”

Asked whether TD Securities sees the Trump tariffs as the largest threat facing the global commodities market in 2025, Melek said that may well be the case, but other massive threats were already there.

“We’ll see what happens, [Trump] will apparently have consultation,” he said. “The other big one, of course, is the fairly weak performance of China, and that certainly was the big story right before tariffs and right before Mr. Trump won the election – which I think, for the most part, was unexpected.”

Chuck again…. All that makes sense to me… I’ve said all along that the tariffs would mean higher prices in the U.S., and shortages, which would also negatively impact prices… And inflation?  We could be looking at inflation similar to the late 70’s, early 80’s… Are you ready? OK… Ready, set, go! 

Market Prices 1/23/2025: American Style: A$ .6274, kiwi .5666, C$ .6945, Euro 1.0414, sterling 1.2323, Swiss $1.1020, European Style: rand 18.5467, krone 11.2748, SEK 11.0117, forint 394.14, zloty 4.0494, koruna 24.1409, RUB 99.00, yen 156.28, sing 1.3664, HKD 7.7896, INR 86.46, China 7.2874, peso 20.48, BRL 5.9788, BBDXY 1,303, Dollar Index 108.22, Oil $75.60, 10-year 4.65%, Silver $30.25, Platinum $949.00, Palladium $999.00, Copper $4.28, and Gold…. $2,741.25

That’s it for today… I forgot to question you all who took my advice and read Dennis Miller’s letter last week regarding tariffs?  You can still find it in his archives on his website: www.milleronthemoney.com  So, the NFL’s Divisional Playoffs are this weekend to decide which two teams go to the Super Bowl. Th Final Four for the NFL.. Go Chiefs! And I’ll be rooting for the Redskins to beat the Eagles… Wait, What? They don’t call them the Redskins any longer? They are the Commanders? Who’s lame brain idea was that to change the legendary name?  Coach Allen is turning in his grave… And Coach Gibbs has his walking orders not to talk about it… (I think) The U.S. Men’s Soccer Team won their game last night 3-0, that’s two straight wins under a new coach… Hmmm….  The team actually looked good… I wonder if my former colleague, Ty Keough saw the game like I did.?  Ok… Jonathan Edwards takes us to the finish line today with his song: Shanty… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The knuckleheads meet in Davos… again!
• The POTUS is making the Chinese sweat…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, I mentioned yesterday that I hadn’t slept much recently, and then… After my morning routine, I sat in my recliner, leaned back and proceeded to sleep all day, into the evening. I woke up refreshed and thinking that I had finally caught up with my lack of sleep! YAHOO! The doc told me that the drugs that I’m taking could cause tiredness and fatigue…They did! 

Well, the dollar kind of hung in there VS the currencies yesterday, with the BBDXY gaining 1 index point, the euro holding steady Eddie above 1.04, and with Gold kicking tail and taking names later!  Dollar traders were correct with their knee jerk reaction to the POTUS’s call for tariffs, with their selling of dollars.  But… That selloff didn’t have any legs yesterday, and last night… Don’t tell me that the Dollar traders ran out of gas! Oh well, at leas they got it right on Monday… 

The article I have for you in the FWIW section today, talks about how currencies might be in for a rise VS the dollar….  So, we have that going for us today!

The price of Gold took off to higher ground yesterday. Gold closed the day, up $36 to close at $2.744.50, and Silver closed the day up 34-cents, to close at $30.88… I think the buying of physical Gold and Silver is being pushed higher by the thought that the POTUS will implement tariffs on the metals being imported…. This is pushing Gold & Silver to higher levels… Not too fast there metals traders, we don’t want to wake up the short paper traders… Let sleeping dogs lay…. 

The price of Oil slipped another buck yesterday, still reeling from Trump’s phrase: “Drill baby Drill”…. Oil ended the day trading with a $75 handle…. And the Treasury’s 10-year saw its yield at 4.57%… Looks like the Fed Heads are doing a good job of putting a lid on bond yields, eh?

In the overnight markets last night….  The dollar lost that 1 index gain it had yesterday, and the BBDXY starts today at 1,301… Gold is up $10 to start the day today, while Silver is down 11-cents… No biggie and easily turned around for Silver… You know yesterday’s metal’s performance was good, but could have been categorized as great, IF… The short paper trades weren’t doing their best to keep that from happening… UGH!

The price of Oil bumped to $76 where it starts today… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield is at 4.58% to start the day today…  Why can’t the Fed Heads keep their hands out of the cookie jar?  That’s the question I would ask chief Fed Head Jerome Powell at his next press conference! 

Well, it’s that time of year again… You know, when the Swiss town of Davos, gets inundated with knuckleheads… Here’s the real skinny:  Annual World Economic Forum begins in ski resort town of Davos, Switzerland, hosting government leaders, multinational CEOs, and global financiers…  Funny, I never get an invitation to this boondoggle… And that’s fine with me, for I abhor cold weather and snow…. These knuckleheads try to figure out what’s wrong with the world…. I wonder if they will still be harping on Climate Change…. It’s changing alright… To the way it used to be again…. 

The new DOGE duo of Elon Mush and Vivek Ramaswamy received some bad news yesterday, Ramaswamy has handed in his notice that he will drop out of the DOGE and run for Gov. of Ohio…  

OK, so you’ve read this letter for some time, and will recall me saying that Janet Yellen (former Treasury Sec.) was either lying or didn’t really know about the economy, when she would state the economy is strong…. Here is a piece from an article in Zerohedge.com regarding this so-called “Strong economy”: “The narrative that the economy is strong is a false narrative.  The only thing that matters is the median household income.  If 32% of the households can’t afford the roof over their head, then that is the irrefutable proof of the false narrative.   The average homeowner (Mom and Pop) with an income of $80,000 is roughly $9,000 short per year which explains the 50% increase in the default rate on credit cards.

If you believe that 32% of households don’t matter, then consider if they don’t pay their debt, those debts then become transferred to the remaining households, thus a closed loop argument and system failure.  These debts cannot be pushed onto the remaining household.

 For years, the projections of economic growth by the Federal Reserve have consistently overstated the strength of the U.S. economy. But every single time, the mainstream media continues to report that these numbers are “reliable”.  These consistent lies, even out of ignorance, make the mainstream media culpable in deluding the public, even if it is considered wishful thinking it ends up being pure fraud perpetrated on a global scale.”

Chuck again… Well, at least there’s someone else who agrees with me on this so-called: “Strong economy”

And once again, longtime readers will agree that I’ve pointed out how inane the STUPID CPI is each month. Well, there was some news about CPI calculation so with no further ado…. “The FED changed the definition of CPI now to exclude food (groceries), fuel, health insurance, tax, and increased costs of goods and services which are arbitrarily assigned a value.  Has your cost of living only increased by 2.6% per year over the last 5 years as stated by the FED?  Has your cost of health insurance only gone up 2.6% per year?  Have your groceries only gone up 2.6% per year?  How about your rent?  The purchasing power of the U.S Dollar has declined by at least 7.5% compounded per year over the last 5 years.  Inflation is the devaluation of your purchasing power, and the CPI is the Ultimate Big Lie.”

The U.S. Data Cupboard today, finally there will a piece of real economic data and that is: Dec Leading Indicators… I told you yesterday that these indicators have been negative for so long that it would look unnatural for them to be positive! So… Expect another negative print. 

To recap… The dollar got sold big time on Monday, but yesterday there was not any follow through, so I said that the dollar traders got it right on Monday… Gold & Silver went to higher ground yesterday, as the markets are finally getting the message that tariffs = inflation…. The BLS is changing the calculation for the STUPID CPI again, and so long Vivek, we hardly knew ya! 

For What It’s Worth…  This article is about currency manipulation, but fails to mention the PPT/ U.S. Oh well, it can be found here: Currency Manipulation Warning Sparks Debate on Trump’s Plans – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “Donald Trump’s first day in office has whipsawed global markets, with traders zeroing in on a warning over currency manipulation which may spark greater volatility ahead.

A fact sheet from the new US administration that is yet to be made public has called for key federal agencies to address foreign-exchange manipulation by other countries, prompting strategists to ponder who will be targeted. Japan, China, Germany and Singapore are already on the US Treasury Department’s “monitoring list” for currency practices.

“That’s a ground-breaking newsworthy item for currencies,” said Richard Franulovich, head of foreign-exchange strategy at Westpac Banking Corp. Trump and Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent may “apply more judgment and discretion, meaning more trading partners are labeled as manipulators.”

Trump’s move comes after high US interest rates and strong growth have kept the dollar elevated against everything from the euro to the yuan, entrenching its dominance across the $7.5 trillion-a-day foreign-exchange market. The prospect of further gains in the greenback is likely to put other nations on guard and may fuel another round of intervention to prop up their currencies.

“This fact sheet mentioned by Trump may seem new but is likely similar to the existing one, perhaps with greater emphasis on ‘manipulators’,” said Christopher Wong, strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. “If there is more added to the list, then likely there could be some volatility around it.”

Chuck again… I think the finance ministers of the major countries need to meet again, like they did in 1985, and proclaim that the dollar is too strong!  Now that would be the ticket! 

And regarding tariffs… Pres Trump said that he would implement tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting Feb 1…  He also said that he would have more discussions regarding the tariffs on China….  Ah that’s an old trade negotiation and let them think and sweat, before coming to the negotiation table… 

Market Prices 1/22/2025: American Style: A$ .6278, kiwi .5672, C$ .6973, euro 1.0433, sterling 1.2349, Swiss $1.1046, European Style: rand 18.4781, krone 11.2572, SEK 10.9832, forint 393.58, zloty 4.0494, koruna 24.0744, RUB 98.86, yen 156.96, sing 1.3432, HKD 7.7878, INR 86.33, China 7.2662, peso 20.57, BRL 6.0029, BBDXY 1301, Dollar Index 107.93, Oil $76.12, 10-year 4.58%, Silver $30.77, Platinum $947.00, Palladium $968.00, Copper $4.31, and Gold… $2, 754.52

That’s it for today… Nothing has changed with the tumor in my mouth… Nothing, absolutely nothing, say it again! I’m beginning to think that the trial I’m on, is not going to work… I’ll know more when I return to St Louis for another infusion in 3 weeks…  How about that snow and ice that northern Florida is receiving? I bet there are people who have never seen the cold stuff! Good thing I’m far enough south of there, to have any effect on us… Although the weather temps aren’t what they normally are. We’ll get rain today, and tomorrow, and then on Friday the temp will only reach 60 degrees before this all turns around. Well, as I always say, “you have to have these days to fully enjoy the sunshine days”… Alice in Chains takes us to the finish line today with their song;” Down In A Hole”… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals rally on Monday
• Chuck is lost…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, I was able to handle my second infusion better than the first one last week…. I was still hazy on Friday, but that cleared, and I pronounced myself as good to go! The drugs are still having a party in my stomach, but I’m starting to get used to it… Saturday was a good day for some of my teams, with my beloved Mizzou Tigers laying it on Arkansas, The SLU Billikens beating Richmond, The Champs aka The Chiefs are still in the playoffs with a win Saturday, while the Lions were upset… UGH!  We’re getting our second wave of chilly air this week, down South, but it’ll still be much warmer than it is back home! Man, was I happy to get out of that weather! The Moody Blues greet me this morning with their song: Never Comes The Day… 

Wow! That was a long intro, Chuck! Are you beating around the bush at something you don’t want to talk about but have to?  Yes…. I am… You”ll have to twist my arm to make me tell you!  HA!  OK… No twisting required, after rallying on Thursday and Friday last week, the dollar got sold yesterday and sold good! The BBDXY lost 12 index points in one day! And ended the day at 1,301… Now that’s a very large loss in the BBDXY. The euro closed the day yesterday at 1.0405… And the rest of the currencies all fell in line behind the Big Dog euro, to finally get out of their sick beds.  They aren’t moving around the room yet, but they are on their own two feet. 

Gold only gained $1 yesterday to close at $2,708…. Silver had a good day on Monday, gaining 28-cents to close at $30.54… I would think that Gold will join in on the party at some time, because of the threat of global tariffs.  The Potus’s speech yesterday took the wind out of the price of Oil’s sails… And Oil lost $2 on the day. While the 10-year gained a small amount for it’s yields to rise to 4.65%…. 

This recent dollar buying is a result of two items….  1. The high Treasury bond yields, and 2 It is rumored that Trump will implement a global tariff, leaving no one untouched…  These knuckleheads all think that this scenario will be good for the U.S. Well, when a global depression sets in because no one can export without it getting tariffed, and the U.S. is a part of that “Global”… People will look around and say…”How’d that happen?”

The 10-year saw some buying last week… And I’m sure the buying was the Fed / Cabal/ Cartel, because the size of the transactions that it takes to move a bond like that can only come from a Central Bank… The 10-year’s yield dropped to end the week at 4.63%… 

Speaking of Fed Heads bond buying…. I’m of the opinion that before the year is over, that another round of overt bond buying in new round of QE that we never thought we would see again!   

In the overnight markets last night….  After losing a chuck in the BBDXY yesterday, the dollar has gained back 3 index points to start today…. There are all kinds of scenarios for the dollar going forward, so I won’t get into them, but I will say that in my humble country boy opinion, the dollar is in trouble going forward… The new POTUS wants a cheaper dollar, the Chinese could really use a cheaper dollar, and the proposed tariffs will bring about a cheaper dollar… So, as you see, the odds of the dollar continuing to rally are slim, and Slim just left town…. 

The price of Gold starts today up $31 and Silver starts today up 16-cents…   I saw an article over the weekend that talked about how Gold will rise to $3,100 by year end… Well, year-end is a long way away, and a lot of stuff could come down the pike before we get there…. I’m just saying…. 

The 10-year’s yield is seeing some buying again this morning with the 10-year’s yield falling to 4.57%… I’m telling you this now, so maybe you’ll hear me later, that the Fed Heads are doing whatever then can to put up a roadblock to bond yields going higher… So, it’s a fight between the bond boys, and the Fed Heads…  And I’ve always told you, dear readers, that markets have deeper pockets than any Central Bank… So, that would mean that bond yields will continue to rise…. I’m just saying… 

Well, the world will be cutting rates as we go along in 2025, which includes the U.S. it’ll be a race to see who can debase their respective currencies to offset Trump’s global tariffs… So, having currencies in your portfolio is going to be tough to hold on to, but I strongly suggest that you keep your diversified portfolio… Things will turn around at some point… And remember the U.S. will also be debasing their currency, so maybe it’ll all come out in the wash…. And then maybe it won’t… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today is empty, and yesterday’s was too… (holiday) and the only real piece of economic data to print this week will come tomorrow in the shape of the Leading Indicators, which have been negative for so long now that someone new to watching data might think that’s normal!  

To recap… The dollar got sold yesterday, by a lot…. But has put a tourniquet around the bleeding and is rallying this morning…  Gold is kicking tail and taking names later this morning….  And Silver is at Gold’s side…. I was all confused still yesterday and wrote something and posted it on the website before I realized that it was Monday, and I wasn’t writing that day!  OMG what a dolt I am sometimes! 

For What It’s Worth…. This article is in a roundabout way, talking about the debt and why it will go higher and why that’s a big problem… Nothing that you haven’t already read from reading the Pfennig. But, as I always prefer to do, I give you another person’s take on the subject, because like at home, your kids don’t listen to you, but if someone else, like a coach, teacher, etc. tells them they listen…  I’ve sounded like a broken record in my take on the debt in the U.S., so this is a good one, and it can be found here: Federal Budget Deficit up Nearly 40 Percent Through First Quarter of Fiscal 2025

Or, here’s your snippet: “According to the national debt clock, the current debt level represents 122.84 percent of GDP. Studies have shown a debt-to-GDP ratio of over 90 percent retards economic growth by about 30 percent.

And as the Bipartisan Policy Center points out, the growing national debt and the mounting fiscal irresponsibility undermine the dollar.

“Confidence in U.S. creditworthiness may be undermined by a rapidly deteriorating fiscal situation, an increasing concern with federal debt set to grow substantially in the coming years.”

This could lead to lower economic growth, higher unemployment, and less investment wealth.

Lack of confidence in the U.S. fiscal situation could also lower demand for U.S. debt. This would force interest rates on U.S. Treasuries even higher to attract investors, exacerbating the interest payment problem. As already mentioned, we’ve seen a big spike in Treasury yields despite Fed rate cuts.

Biden has run the debt higher at a dizzying pace, but to be fair, this isn’t just a Biden problem. Every president since Calvin Coolidge has left the U.S. with a bigger national debt than when he took office.  

The debt will likely be one of the biggest problems facing President Trump as he takes the reins of power. With Republicans controlling both chambers of Congress and the White House, there is an opportunity to tackle the spending problem, but whether the GOP has the political will to make substantial cuts remains to be seen.

Trump has at least talked about slashing the size of government, but he’s going to need to do better than he did during his first term.”

Chuck again.. I picked this snippet up in the middle of the article, so if you go to the link, it’ll look different at first until you get to the part where I clipped it…. 

Market Prices 1/20/2025: American Style: .6266, kiwi .5661, C$ .6970, euro 1.0414, sterling 1.2316, Swiss $1.1024, European Style: rand 18.5104, krone 11.3062, SEK 11.0038, forint 395.04, zloty 4.0816, koruna 24.1405, RUB 99.60, yen 155.44, sing 1.3537, HKD 7.7863, INR 86.56, China 7.2672, peso 20.56, BRL 6.0326, BBDXY 1,304.07, Dollar Index 108.08, Oil $76.68, 10-year 4.57%, Silver $30.70, Platinum $ 957.00, Palladium $962.00 Copper $4.33, and Gold…. $2,740.02

That’s it for today…. Sorry for the lack of length in today’s Pfennig… We got here late Sunday night, and I retired almost immediately after the Football game. So, that left me with a blank page to begin writing on today, and I just couldn’t find something to write about that I haven’t already beaten to death…. (no one was hurt here) Well, last night was the National Championship Game between Ohio St. and Notre Dame….  I totally dislike both teams, so I guess I didn’t care who won, although I did kind of lean toward Notre Dame… Congrats to Ohio St. they are the college National Champions! We are now less than a month from the pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training… 23 days to be exact!  I don’t have high expectations for my beloved Cardinals this year, as they will start over with the “young uns” Normally the early games of Spring Training are filled with the prospects, before they get sent down…. But this year, I guess the Prospects are what we’ll see when the team moves north… Oh well… que sera, sera…. Dire Straits take us to the finish line today with their song; Brothers In Arms…. I hope you have Tom Terrific Tuesday today and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar sees some correction on Monday
• Gold & Silver run into the short paper traders….

Good Day…. And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you…. This is the last letter this week, until next Tuesday… So, soak it in…HA! What a beautiful day, weather wise it was yesterday, down here in S. Florida… I went out to the deck to read and actually got hot! Not too hot, but hot, and I love it! Had dinner with friends last night, the temps were great to sit outside and eat!   The St. Louis band, Mama’s Pride greets me this morning with their hit song: Blue Mist… 

Well, the dollar ran into the wall yesterday, and profit taking and cooler heads prevailed, with the BBDXY losing 5 index points to close yesterday at 1,314…. The euro rallied back above the 1.02 figure, and the rest of the currencies all followed, although when you look at the currency roundup below, you won’t see much difference in their values VS the dollar. I say cooler heads, because the rise in the dollar was completely overdone, and needed to be corrected a bit, which it was yesterday. 

We started the day yesterday with Gold getting sold, with the reason being that the markets were playing catchup with the surprising Jobs Jamboree… Gold continued to get sold, but at a slower place the rest of the day and ended up down $27 to close at $2,663, and story was the same for Silver and it ended the day down 69-cents, to close at $29.67….  You have to look at yesterday’s price action, as just a blip…. Because I have a feeling that Gold is going to outperform its 26% gain in 2024, in 2025…. So, look at it as an opportunity to buy at a cheaper level before it heads first to $2700, and then $2800, and so on…. I’m just saying

The price of Oil bumped higher by a buck yesterday and ended the day trading with a $78 handle…. And the 10-year’s yield remained at 4.77%….

In the overnight markets last night…There was no follow through with the dollar selling last night, as the BBDXY saw a 3 index point gain. This puts a scowl on my face this morning, no follow through on the dollar selling…. I had thought yesterday that maybe, just maybe, because you never know (Andujar) that all this dollar buying had been overdone and it was time to see a reversal of it…. But that wasn’t the case, as the dollar rallied overnight. UGH! Gold is up $2 to start the day today, and Silver is flat as a pancake (Head East). The short paper traders really dealt Gold & Silver a devastating blow yesterday, I hope they got their fill yesterday, and will go away today… Sort of like the rain, rain go away, come again another day song. 

The price of Oil bumped higher to trade with a $78 handle overnight… The guys that cover Oil keep harping about how the Russian sanctions are causing this rise in the price of Oil…. There is news this morning that there are hopes that a Gaza ceasefire can be ironed out… That’s one of the things pushing Oil’s price higher, the fighting in the Middle East…  The Treasury’s 10-year bond, took another step higher overnight, with the yield rising to 4.79%… Baby steps it appears for the bond…. And that’s Ok with me… 

Well, good friend, Dennis Miller of www.milleronthemoney.com, sent me a video yesterday of what happened in the Jobs number last Friday… I’ll be the one to give you spoiler alert…. The majority of the jobs gains that the BLS reported to be 256,000, after the ADP reported only 1356,000 jobs in December, were from Gov’t jobs… As the great Harry Cary used to exclaim: Holy Cow! Yesterday I had questioned the BLS number being so far away from the ADP number, and the news that the majority of jobs in the BLS report were Gov’t Jobs, then my question was answered…. Was this the current POTUS doing what he can to inflate Gov’t payrolls for the DOGE team?  I don’t know, and basically don’t care what was the impetus of these jobs, only that so many Gov’t jobs were added and probably not needed…. More deficit spending…. That’s all I see….

Well, the latest rumor going around is that Trump plans to place tariffs on imported metals… I.e. Gold & Silver… That’s got the physical buyers of th metals up in arms, and backing up their trucks to take on as much as they can….  the writer that reported this had the idea that this would put pressure on the short paper traders, unless they had the long metal in their ready for deliver account…. 

I sure hope that this rumor doesn’t become fact…. But, who knows? Only The Shadow Knows!

Well… The Fed Heads led by, Jerome Powell, have been a major disappointment to me, and I guess the bon boys, but for now I’m talking about only my disappointment…. I mean first of all the Fed Heads claimed that they had slayed inflation…. And only now admit that Inflation is sticky… And second, the Fed Heads have now done what they could to ignite higher inflation with their 3 rate cuts into the December meeting….  And third, that the Fed Heads can’t see that they need to be hiking rates instead of sitting on their hands….  I understand that the U.S. economy was looking shaky, and that panicked the Fed Heads into cutting rates… Think that they weren’t panicking back in Sept.? Then why then did they opt to open the rate cutting with a 50 Basis Points (1/2%) rate cut?  

And of course, the POTUS to be, Trump believes that lower rates are needed now, and plenty of them…. Apparently, him and Powell are sparing right now…. This will be interesting to watch from afar…. I’m just saying….

This from www.moneymetals.com ” “The Fed has routinely stated that containing inflation expectations is one of its primary roles,” and it’s “hard to imagine” the central bank will ignore signs of revived price inflation.

They can say that now, but it becomes easier to “imagine” when the economy starts to crack under the weight of high interest rates.

You see, there is a big elephant standing middle of the family room. The Fed already wrecked the economy with well over a decade of easy money. It pumped nearly $9 trillion in new money (inflation) into the economy through quantitative easing alone from the onset of the Great Recession through the pandemic. That’s on top of the inflation it created with nearly a decade of zero percent interest rates.

That monetary malfeasance has consequences. It created a massive debt bubble and all kinds of malinvestments in the economy. The impact hasn’t manifested yet.

When the economy visibly cracks, the Fed will be forced to get even more aggressive in loosening monetary policy – elevated inflation or not. If history is any indication, it will cut rates to zero again, and it will launch more rounds of QE. That means even more inflation.

The worst-case scenario is a protracted period of stagflation.

So, Trump may get his wish.

But that means we also get to pay more for everything.”

Chuck again… A very good summary of the problems I tried to outline above…

U.S. Data Cupboard today, as the Dec. PPI (wholesale Inflation), which the previous month showed an upward move in PPI….  I would say to look for PPI to remain elevated in December. 

To recap… The dollar ran into a roadblock on Monday, and a lot of Friday’s gains were reversed. Chuck really gets into a lot stuff this morning, and Gold & Silver saw selling all day on Monday.

For What It’s Worth…. This article came to me from the good folks at GATA and it’s about how sound money would be the best way to control Gov’t spending than DOGE….  (you know, the Musk, Ramaswamy duo) and it can be found here: Sound Money Would Check Government More Than DOGE Can

Or, here’s your snippet: “Along with the ad hoc working group dubbed the “Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE),” there is much discussion about how runaway big government might be stopped. But there hasn’t yet been talk about how to keep it that way.

Making sure future administrations and legislatures can’t undo or erode important reforms needs to be part of the plan.

Laws, unfortunately, aren’t enough. The Founders drafted the U.S. Constitution to put strict limits on the power and size of the federal government. They would be deeply saddened by how faithfully that document has been interpreted and followed.

While the Constitution gets most of the attention, it was not the only mechanism our Founders implemented to limit government. They gave us free and decentralized money and purposely avoided creating a central bank.

In reality, a true sound money system could be the most effective constraint on government growth and power.

For the majority of the nation’s history, gold and silver served as the official money. The Federal Reserve Bank was established in 1913, but the currency it issued was redeemable in gold until President Nixon put a complete end to that in 1971.

It is no accident the period between 1776 to 1913 – and, a lesser extent, 1913 to 1971 – was one of limited government.”

Chuck again… Makes sense to me… I remember telling a bunch of bankers that the U.S. wouldn’t be in such a hole with its deficit if they had maintained the Gold Standard…. At the same time I also acknowledged that we (the bankers and me) wouldn’t be doing so well financially if that had happened.  

Market Prices 1/14/2025: American Style: A$ .6172, kiwi .5591, C$ .6968, euro 1.0250, sterling 1.2160, Swiss $1.0907, European Style: rand 18.4422, krone 11.4389, SEK 11.2238, forint 402.06, zloty 4.1645, koruna 24.6363, RUB 103.04, yen 157.76, sing 1.3702, HKD 7.7864, INR 86.63, China 7.3312, peso 20.80, BRL 6.0617, BBDXY 1317, Dollar Index 109.67, Oil $78.36, 10-year 4.79%, Silver $29.74, Platinum $951.00, Palladium $948.00, Copper $4.53, and Gold…. $2,669.52

That’s it for today, and for the next few days as I head back to St. Louis for my next infusion….  I really want these infusions to work, but from the results of the first one, they won’t…. And that will only leave me with one option and that is to have my right mandible surgically removed…. And leave me with only eating soft foods the rest of my life… But to get this tumor that keeps growing out of my mouth would go a long way toward to me missing eating steak!  So, let’s hope this infusion works some magic, because I feel that I will pull the plug on this treatment, and go with the surgery. It’s very serious surgery folks… So, like I said, let’s hope the infusion works some magic…. Now, on a happier note….  I like the Detroit Lions in the NFC, and the KC Chiefs in the AFC… There are a few more games to play, so this is early…. The Byrds takes us to the finish line today with their song: Eight Miles High….  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Gold & Silver rally on Friday
• But get sold on Manic Monday….

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you!  Well, did you get enough NFL football this past weekend? If not, there’s one more playoff game to be played tonight… The weather here is beginning to turn back to normal and will be in the mid 70’s today…. Plenty of sun to get my Vitamin D…. Yesterday, for a while, I sat out on our deck in the sun, with Kathy and friends Lorraine and Jack. But I kept feeling the Bills/ Broncos football game calling my name, and finally I gave up and came inside to watch the last part of the game. This coming weekend, I’ll be back home recuperating from my latest infusion that will take place on Thursday morning. Next Monday morning it’s supposed to be 5 degrees when I get on the plane to come back here! I hate Cold weather! Elvin Bishop greets me this morning with his great song: Travelin’ Shoes… 

Well, the Jobs Jamboree last Friday, really was like throwing a cat among the pigeons…. The BLS said that a total of 256,000 jobs were created in December…. That news set the dollar bugs free to move about the country, and they bought dollars with no fear of a Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel rate cut later this month….   Chief Fed Head, Jerome Powell had to be smiling like the Cheshire Cat, as he realized that now he doesn’t need to cut rates to save the economy….   The BBDXY gained 7 index points on Friday after the jobs report, and the currencies all felt the brunt of the raging dollar… The euro fell all the way to 1.0249….   UGH!  

Gold & Silver shrugged off the jobs report’s numbers and set out to rally…. The short paper traders had to step in an one point in the day, as the two metals looked like they were strapped to a rocket ship to the moon! Gold ended the day/ week with a $19 gain but that was $18 off from where the short paper traders stepped in… And Silver gained 27- cents but that was 63-cents away from where the short paper traders stepped in.  Gold closed the week at $2,690, and Silver at $30.36…. 

Here’s chief Fed Head, Powell… “Inflation is stuck above target and risks are skewered to the upside. We see little reason for additional easing.” 

Well, if Powell had read the Pfennig back a few months when they decided to cut rates when the inflation rate was above their target rate of 2.0%… He would have read me chastising him for cutting rates, as I explained then, inflation is sticky….  And it certainly has proven to be just that! Too bad the Fed Heads are just now realizing that inflation is sticky! 

The 10-year Treasury’s yield jumped on Friday and ended the week at 4.76% And the bond boys were all rejoicing their decision to not get caught up in the “inflation is defeated” talk…. And the price of Oil jumped higher on Friday, and ended the week up $4 to trade with a $77 handle…   It was a strange day indeed… But, the felling in the market now is that the next move for the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel will be a rate hike….  You know, because the economy is so strong…. 

Tell that to all the negative economic reports that have recently printed, and the ISM which remains below 50, and please someone explain to me how the ADP Employment Report showed that only 136,000 jobs had been created in December, but the BLS says that 256,000 were created… I would side with the ADP report; they are the payroll company that every company worth their weight uses…. So, when they say 136,000 jobs had been created, they are the ones to know! 

In the overnight markets last night…. Oh heavens! This is what the Bangles sang about back in the 80’s… It’s a Manic Monday, I wish it were Sunday, that’s my fun day!   The dollar is getting bought as if it was running out… You know like those infomercials where they tell you to “act fast, inventory is running out”…. The BBDXY is up to 1321 this morning… That’s a 12 index point gain from Friday’s close…. Why? Oh, the newswires are full of stories about how the markets are now catching up with the Jobs Jamboree…  really? C’mon I was born, not just yesterday…. But if that’s what everyone is saying, then it must be reality… Although I doubt it…. For the premise, would present a case before you that the markets are slow… mentally. I don’t mean to be mean here, but C’mon, there is something else going on here that will become apparent in the days ahead…  But for now, we live with a dollar that is stronger than a country horse…. Reminds me of the great Jim Croce’s song: about how you don’t spit into the wind, you don’t take the mask of the old Lone Ranger, etc….    That’s the dollar right now… Don’t mess around with the green/ peach back! 

Gold is getting sold this morning and is down $22 at this time. Silver is down 63-cents!  Gold was on a 5-day winning streak and that has been thrown aside this morning. I don’t like it when the attack Gold & Silver like this, it’s as if the two metals hit a technical line that has a ton of resistance, but that’s not the case here… So, the selling all about the mentally slow markets now catching up with the Jobs Jamboree…. 

The price of Oil remains trading with a $77 handle this morning. There was a report on Bloomberg.com this morning that talked about how the sanctions on Russia are causing supply and delivery problems….  The U.S. Treasury 10-year’s yield is pushing the envelope and trades with a 4.77% yield this morning. 

Man, I’m on a roll this morning… Somebody hold me back! 

OK… The good folks at GATA sent me this little ditty: “Eastern physical demand for gold and silver is continuing to overwhelm the Federal Reserve’s effort to cap their prices with derivatives on the New York Commodities Exchange, London metals trader Andrew Maguire tells this week’s edition of Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program. Maguire adds that the United States soon will need a higher price for gold and thus a higher valuation of its gold reserves to back the dollar.”

The thing to think about here is why is gold rallying in the face of higher yields in the U.S?   I believe it all has to do with save haven buying….  Central Banks around the world will need even higher yields before they participate in a Treasury auction, and in the meantime, they put their money into physical Gold….  Can it really be that simple, Chuck? I do believe it can… 

The next Big Stop for the 10-year’s yield is 5%… Some will tell you that the Federal Gov’t will not allow 5% yield, for that would increase their bond servicing costs (interest payments) by leaps and bounds, and probably bring the U.S. Fed to its knees…. But, the bond boys have proven that they have taken control of the bond market and its yield curve, and so if left to their own devices… The Bond boys will move the 10-year’s yield to 5%… 

And that won’t be good news for not only the Gov’t’s purse strings, but also the stock jockeys…. They are all of the opinion that their market is going to the moon, but as we’ve seen already, stocks are iffy right now with the yield at 4.76%…. 

But in my opinion, which could be wrong, all you have to do is look at the past relationships of stocks and bonds…. And that with rising bond yields, stocks are in trouble….  I’m just saying…. 

Bill Bonner always talks about avoiding the Big Loss…..  And that’s what I’m talking about with rising bond yields and what they will do to stocks…. 

Not that I’m a stock Jockey, or play one on TV… So, don’t think that this letter will become a stock journal… No way! I’m just talking about the historical record of bonds and stocks…. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard last week also told us that annual wage increases were 3.9%…. Well, that doesn’t come close to meeting the inflation rate, which I use www.shadowstats.com for my inflation numbers…. No wonder, I read this last week that U.S. consumers’ credit card balances are all nearing their max level…. UH-OH

The Data Cupboard this week will have the STUPID CPI on Wednesday this week…. 

To recap…. The dollar soared on Friday after the Jobs Jamboree surprised everyone with a 256,000 jobs creation number… Gold & Silver shrugged off the dollar soaring and rallied so strong that the short paper traders had to step in and put a cap on the metals and bring them back down a bit…. The price of Oil jumped $4 to $77, and the 10-year’s yield just keeps climbing… 

For What It’s Worth…. Well, it’s been some time since I’ve used the writings of Russ & Pam Martens here in the FWIW section… But I couldn’t pass up Friday’s post by them, it’s about the Big Financial problems, and it can be found here: Wall Street Watchdog Warns “Clock Is Ticking on a Coming Catastrophic Financial Crash”

Or, here’s your snippet: “The indefatigable Dennis Kelleher, Co-Founder and CEO of the Wall Street watchdog, Better Markets, has just released his organization’s monthly newsletter for January 2025 and it’s a humdinger.

Kelleher warns that the financial deregulators that incoming President Donald Trump has packed into his administration means “that the clock is ticking on a coming catastrophic financial crash that will likely be much worse than 2008.”

Kelleher adds that this “is not hyperbole.” He cites evidence from past financial crashes, writing:

“…there is always a lag after deregulation and the creation of artificial liquidity. That was true for ‘roaring ‘20s’ followed by the crash and Great Depression; the ‘great moderation’ of the early 2000s followed by the crash and Great Recession; the deregulation of the first Trump administration in 2017-2020 that led to the 2023 banking crisis when 3 of the 4 largest bank failures in US history happened. Much worse is likely to happen next time.”

The potential for another great crash might explain why the Vice President for Supervision at the Federal Reserve, Michael Barr, is abandoning the ship and lowering the life raft.

Kelleher has a way with coining a phrase, writing that “Banks don’t neglect their duties, act recklessly, engage in high-risk behavior, or break the law – bankers do” – and he warns that this is going to persist “until individual bankers are meaningfully and personally punished.”

Unfortunately, as Wall Street On Parade has documented time and again, regardless of which political party holds the reins in Washington, Wall Street has been able to draw a no-law zone around its activities with a wink and a nod from the U.S. Department of Justice.”

Chuck Again…. As usual, the Wallstreetonparade.com posting is a long one, so go there to read it all.. 

The market price roundup is ugly this morning, you might want to just skip it today….  But if you enjoy ugliness and Armageddon then here is are the Market prices for today…

Market Prices 1/13/2025: American Style: A$ .6150, kiwi .5555, C$ .6937, euro 1.0197, sterling 1.2112, Swiss $1.0909, European Style: rand 18.1475, krone 11.4834, SEK 11.2933, forint 405.88, zloty 4.0688, koruna 24.7582, RUB 102.81, yen 157.10, sing 1.3737, HKD 7.7867, INR 86.58, China 7.3320, peso 20.76, BRL 6.0899, BBDXY 1321, Dollar Index 109.88, Oil $77.93, 10-year 4.77%, Silver $29.73, Platinum $959.00, Palladium $935.00, Copper $4.30, and Gold… $2,667.66

That’s it for today… Yesterday was my oldest son’s birthday…. Happy Birthday Andrew! Andrew was born during a snowstorm of about 9 inches, I wasn’t sure I was going to make it home that night!  But I did, and the next morning I went to pick up his sister, Dawn, and she was beaming, because she was a Big Sister now! Those are memories that are brought back to me each January when his birthday rolls around….  Ok, last week I told you that there would be no Pfennig this Wed and Thurs but forgot about Mon…  So, Wed, Thurs, Mon…. No Pfennig…. Bill Withers takes us to the finish line today with his song: Lovely Day…. I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar continues to rack up the gains
• FOMC Minutes leave a lot of questions unanswered…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, the weather here didn’t get back to normal yesterday, but… I did get outside to read and soak in some Vitamin D, for awhile…. I had to have on my quarter-zip, but other than that it was delightful… I saw the NFL wildcard games slated for this weekend…. I couldn’t believe The Steelers had to play the Ravens again! But that’s the draw…. The Semi’s for the College Football Playoffs begin tonight, with the Orange Bowl and Penn State VS Notre Dame…. Eric Burdon & the Animals greet me this morning with their hit song: House of the Rising Sun…

Well, it’s back…. The strong dollar is kicking tail and taking names later again…. Yesterday, the BBDXY rose 7 index points, the euro held onto the 1.03 handle, but the rest of the currencies didn’t hold their ground. It was an ugly day for them…  The Fed’s FOMC Meeting Minutes revealed that the Fed Heads emphasized that policy is not on a preset path and will need to evolve in response to the data and enacted policies of the administration.  So, in other words, The Fed heads aren’t certain where interest rates will head, inflation and Trump are their Concerns…. 

The dollar bugs took that as they may not even be one more rate cut and took to buying dollars like funnel cakes at a State Fair! But…. Gold wasn’t fazed by the dollar’s rally, and Gold gained $16 on the day to close at $2,664.10, and Silver gained 4-cents to close at $30.20….  And have I got something good for you on Silver in the FWIW section today…. But wait, there’s more here before we get there! 

The prices of Gold & Silver were manipulated again yesterday with the goal of the short paper traders to keep the two metals from taking off for the moon!   Here’s Ed Steer with his thoughts on yesterday: “It was another day where there was obvious price management in the precious metals. As I pointed out further up, there is now little if any correlation between precious metal prices and what’s happening with the dollar index.

They all want to rally, despite the rise in the DXY — and it’s more than obvious that the collusive commercial traders of whatever stripe are there to keep a lid on their prices in order to prevent a run from paper assets to precious metals, or the commodity complex in general.” – Ed Steer from www.edsteergoldsilver.com

The price of Oil fell to a $72 handle yesterday…. Profit taking probably…. And the 10-year saw its yield drop to 4.68% yesterday…. As there was some buying…. I wonder who? Maybe the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel? Nah… They’re out of the bond buying business, right? Yeah, and my first wife was a young Elizabeth Taylor, yeah, that’s the ticket! 

In the overnight markets last night….  The dollar was bought some more with the BBDXY up 1 index point this morning…. The euro is holding 1.03 at the moment… As the rate cuts that the ECB has made are being seen now as the cause of a rise in the inflation rate that was seen for the Eurozone earlier this week. The rest of the currencies are all sick bed stricken and will remain there as long as the dollar bugs keep buying dollars….  The price of Gold is up $12 to start our day today, and Silver is up 15-cents…. These two have been keeping the short paper traders on the edges of their respective seats, so good for them!  But as Ed points out this morning above, the two metals would be much higher prices without the short paper traders keeping them in check… 

The price of Oil bumped back up to a $73 handle overnight, and the 10-year saw some more buying overnight, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond at 4.66% this morning… 

This from the good folks at GATA: “Our friend Paul Fitzgerald of Groton, Massachusetts, has just proven that even individuals can get the attention of the entities and organizations that purportedly supervise our rigged markets, even if the truth can’t always be extracted from them.

Fitzgerald recently filed a formal complaint with CME Group, operator of the major futures exchanges in the United States, alleging longstanding manipulation of the gold and silver markets operated by CME Group. While CME Group, in response, claimed to be unable to find evidence of substantial manipulation, Fitzgerald’s complaint prompted CME Group’s lead investigator to make himself ridiculous.”

Chuck again….I could have told him to not waste his time, as the CME never sees any manipulation of Gold & Silver prices…. If you look up the CME you’ll find the monkey with his hand over his eyes….  I’m just saying…. 

And here’s Bill Bonner with his take on the politicos…. “The division of the US between ‘left’ and ‘right’ is no longer very helpful. The leftists (democrats) are supposed to represent progress, the working classes, and the downtrodden. The rightists (republicans) are supposed to favor more traditional, upper class conservative values.

But today, the elites of both parties represent the same group — themselves. They squabble over cultural issues. But on matters of real importance, the two things that will ruin us… war and money, they both want the same thing: more.

Since the 1980s no major figure in either party opposed the empire agenda… with its deficits… money-printing… and more than 800 US bases around the world housing US garrisons.”

Chuck again… And that’s why we have a ever growing, unsustainable, $36 Trillion national debt! Oh, and you can find Bill here: www.bonnerprivateresearch.com

I thought I would give you some different opinions on things other than mine this morning…. I hope you’re up for it…. 

And this final article could be a FWIW entry, but…. I have it here: get a load of this:  “ew Jersey Democratic Governor Phil Murphy passed a law to remove the requirement to pass the Praxis Core Test, a basic skills test for reading, writing, and math, for people seeking an instructional certificate.”

What has this country’s education come to?  

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday, had the ADP Employment Report for Dec. And it showed that only 122,000 jobs were created in Dec.  You may recall me telling you that 136,000 were expected….  And the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims fell to 201,000… So, two different scenarios here… But remember, last week was a short week for filing claims…. And that’s probably the reason it was so low….  We already discussed the FOMC’S Meeting Minutes above…. What a mess! 

To recap…. The dollar is back in the driver’s seat…. Oooh, ooh, ooh, Driver’s Seat yeah…. (Sniff-n-the-Tears) It was an ugly day for the currencies, but not for Gold, which gained $16 on the day, and Silver gained 4-cents… We had visits from GATA, and Bill Bonner this morning…. And the ADP report was very disppointing 

For What It’s Worth…. This is a great article about Silver, it’s lack of supply, an explanation of the term “stock-out”, and what it means for Silver going forward….  The article can be found here: Trump’s tariff threats are destabilizing silver markets, gold will rally again in H2 2025 – TD Securities’ Ghali | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: ” Gold will rally in the second half of the year as the Fed resumes its rate cuts, but the real story right now is the massive impact that President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats are having on global silver stocks, according to TD Securities’ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali.

In a Jan. 7 interview, Ghali said that investors need to take notice of an unprecedented situation that’s unfolding in the silver market right now.

“It’s hard to see it in flat prices, but over the last month there’s been a huge disruption in precious metals markets where the threat of universal tariffs on metals is leading traders around the world to bring metal in from London and other global venues into the U.S., only to hedge against the risk that tariffs will be implemented on precious metals,” he said. “Historically they haven’t – precious metals have been considered money in effect – but if they were to be subject to tariffs, then traders holding short positions against metal that they actually hold somewhere else in the world would be subject to substantial losses.”

“In order to hedge against that risk, they’re bringing metal into the U.S.”

Ghali clarified that he’s not talking about contracts or other financial instruments, but actual, physical metal that is being brought en masse into the United States, and the implications are profound.

“This could inadvertently lead to a stock-out in the world’s largest metal vaulting system for silver in London,” he said. “This is the biggest story in commodity markets right now. Silver markets seem to be just completely sleepwalking into a potential stock-out.”

“A stock-out is a moment in time where the inventories of the metal cross a critical threshold below which the [market] structure is challenged,” Ghali explained. “If you think about how the world trades physical precious metals, the global venue for that is sitting in London but most people actually use U.S.-based contracts to hedge price risks. So the challenge here is that the threat of universal tariffs is leading metal to go from the world’s largest venue into the U.S., depleting that inventory buffer that traders use for over-the-counter transactions every day.”

“And mind you, we are now in a fourth consecutive year of very substantial deficits in silver,” he added. “This trend of depleting inventories was already set up, and this is simply something that’s accelerating that process.”

Galley agreed that this scenario could only be very price-positive for silver. “

Chuck again… And what did I tell you yesterday to do about Silver?  Yes, that was back up the truck!  But again, that’s my opinion, and I could be wrong…. Although I doubt it! 

Market Prices 1/9/2025: American Style: A$ .6196, kiwi .5693, C$ .6948, euro 1.0301, sterling 1.2282, Swiss 1.0966, European Style: rand 18.8935, krone 11.4015, SEK 11.1687, forint 404.70, zloty 4.1453, koruna 24.2499, RUB 102.26, yen 157.71, sing 1.3667, HKD 7.7808, INR 85.86, China 7.3322, peso 20.43, BRL 6.1137, BBDXY 1,312, Dollar Index 109.14, Oil $73.57, 10-year 4.66%, Silver $30.35, Platinum $958.00, Palladium $929.00, Copper $4.30, and Gold…. $2,672.39

That’s it for today…. Well, the SLU Billikens played last night, and although the game was not aired down here, I was able to follow it with my iPhone, and The Billikens won the game!…  It’ll be footballpalooza starting tonight, and tomorrow night, and then Sat & Sun in the NFL…. On Saturday, it’s supposed to rain here, so it won’t be bad to stay inside and veg out watching football! I was protesting against the NFL when all the kneeling for the National Anthem was going on, but since that has stopped, I’m back!  My cold is gone! YAHOO! And I didn’t need a nap yesterday, so…. I’m coming around to normal a week before my next infusion…. UGH! Then it starts all over again! 

So, remember, no Pfennig next Wednesday or Thursday…. Harold Melvin and the Blue Notes take us to the finish line today with their great song: If You Don’t Know Me By Now….  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Traders think the rate cuts will slow…
• China is back to buying physical Gold!

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I slept a lot yesterday, I just can’t figure out why I’m so sleepy all the time since I’ve been here… I need for the winter weather here in S. Florida to go back to normal temps, so I can get outside, and then maybe I can break this habit of napping…. Could be the cancer effects on me, but I won’t know that until the weather changes! I got to watch my beloved Mizzou Tigers basketball team last night take on LSU….  Mizzou built a large lead and won the game… Spirit greets me this moring with a song that I take personally, it has a lot of meaning for me and the song is: Nature’s Way…. 

Well, just as it did on Monday, after getting sole the night before, the dollar rallied yesterday in the U.S. session, as traders once again called out that the euro is going to parity with the dollar…. The BBDXY, which was down 2 index points from the previous night’s trading, gained that back and 2 more to finish the day flat at 1,304….   The euro slipped below 1.04, and the rest of the currencies all went back to their sick beds…. The currencies were able to get up and move around a little the last couple of nights but had to return to their respective beds by daylight…. 

Gold which was getting bought in the morning session ran into some short paper traders and Gold’s early $22 gain was hacked down to a $9 gain on the day…. And Silver’s 33-cent gain was hacked down to a `6-cent gain…. The short paper traders were out an about on Tuesday, and they made sure Gold & Silver didn’t move higher on the day. I haven’t come across any new forecasts that tell us that the short paper trading is nearing an end…. But I have come across a plethora of articles about how the Global Central Banks are still buying physical Gold by the boat loads…. If that scenario continues throughout 2025, then Gold & Silver should see gains like they booked in 2024…. I’m just saying…. 

For instance, Kitco.com reported that “China’s central bank purchases 10 Tonnes of Gold in December, analysts say it’s nowhere near done buying”…. So that all bodes well for Gold’ future price…. 

The price of Oil bumped higher again to the $74 handle yesterday, and there was a rout in bonds, that apparently helped the stock jockeys yesterday… The 10-year Treasury’s yield rose to 4.68%…. 

In the overnight markets last night….  well, there was not saving knight in white armor for the currencies last night, as the dollar got bought like it was going out of style…. The BBDXY is up 8 index points to start our day today, and the euro has fallen all the way to 1.03….  We’re back to the dollar kicking tail and taking names later, and that’s a problem when I look at it… Because the strength is from traders thinking that the Fed Heads will slow their rate cuts this year….  I just don’t get it…. One day they think rate cuts are coming like a hurricane, and the next day they think the opposite… Pick a lane!  What happens if the Jobs Jamboree on Friday this week comes in as forecast, at just 155,000 jobs? Will they change their minds again?   

Any way, batten down the hatches folks… This is going to get really ugly once again…  Gold is ignoring the dollar strength this morning and is up $6 in the early trading, and Silver is flat to down a couple of cents….  I think all that I’ve said about Gold for this year is bang on, but we’ll have to live through the year to see if I’m correct, eh? 

The price of Oil remained in the $74 handle overnight, and the 10-year’s yield has bumped even higher this mornin and trades at 4.71%…. This higher yield is helping the dollar folks, there’s no two ways about that, but to the degree the dollar is strong? I doubt it….. 

My good friend, Dennis Miller of www.milleronthemoney.com has put together an excellent piece that will be sent to his subscribers on Thursday, and in it he explains the Hoot / Smalley Tariffs…  and other things about tariffs that we should all be quite aware of since this is going to become a part of economy in the near future….  I strongly suggest that if you want to read it, you subscribe today, so that it’s in your email box tomorrow….   Just go to the link above and sign up, it’s free! 

Ok… Well, I guess the thing, although it’s a remote chance at this point, but, we need to be aware of is that Central Bank buying of physical Gold could corner the Gold Market?    That reminds me of the Hunt Brothers attempting to corner the Silver market years ago….   They weren’t successful, and I doubt Central Banks won’t be successful either, but it is something we need to keep in the back of our minds…. 

Well, the folks that run the European Central Bank have to be thinking Oh-NO!  It was reported earlier this week that Eurozone inflation saw a big rise to 2.8% last month….  And the ECB has just cut rates….  Stupid, stupid, stupid Central Bankers… I guess they would tell us that they had no idea that inflation was sticky and could come back with a vengeance!  This report should help the euro in that it should also back the rate cuts away from the table, it should…. That doesn’t mean the knuckleheads at the ECB will keep their powder dry….  It just means they should! 

I talked about the Chinese renminbi the other day in length…. But I wanted to point out that that China’s currency has continued to weaken and hit 7.33 on Tuesday… Chinese leaders had tried to soothe the markets with talk that they had the answers for Trump tariffs…. But apparently that wasn’t enough as the currency hit a level it hadn’t seen since Sept 2023…. With two weeks to go until Trump takes over the POTUS, and implements his high tariffs on China, expectations of his promised big tariffs hve ratle markets in China, everything from Chinese stocks to bonds, to other assets, have all been effected….  

You may recall me telling you that there was talk of a Chinese renminbi devaluation to offset the tariffs…. This has not been discussed further by the Chinese at this point, but I’m sure that when they say they have the answers to the tariffs, it includes a devaluation…. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the ADP Employment Report for December…. Right now, ADP says that job creation will be 136,000  in December…. That’s not a lot…. But we’ll have to wait-n-see…. The minutes of the last FOMC Meeting will print this afternoon…. And yesterday’s data cupboard showed that there are plenty of open jobs in the U,S. 8.1 Million…. 

To recap…. The dollar rallied on Tuesday during the day after getting sold the previous night… That’s two days in a row…. Gold ran into short paper trading along with Silver and their gains yesterday, were pared down….  There was a bond rout yesterday, and the 10-year’s yield rose to 4.68%….  Chuck talks about an artilce that Dennis Miller will put on Thursday on tariffs…. The ECB has to be soiling their pants after the inflation report showed inflation rising in the Eurozone, after they had cut rates!   

For What It’s Worth…. I gave Gold quite a bit of attention this morning, so I thought that this article about Silver would be good for catch up…..   This is from the Perth Mint, and it can be found here: Silver sales continue to shine bright at The Perth Mint

Or, here’s your snippet: “The Perth Mint sold 31,727 troy ounces (oz.) of gold and 1,057,311 oz. of silver in minted product form during December 2024.

The Perth Mint’s General Manager Minted Products, Neil Vance, said interest remained strong in the 2025 Australian Kangaroo bullion series released in November with silver sales in particular driving December’s results.

“The Perth Mint’s kangaroo coins and bullion are famous around the world. It’s always a pleasure to see how warmly they are received by collectors and investors,” Mr. Vance said.

The Perth Mint manufactures and markets the Australian Precious Metal Coin and Minted Bar Program. Trusted worldwide for their purity and weight, the coins include annual releases of the renowned Australian kangaroo, kookaburra, koala, and lunar series. In addition, periodic releases and series offer investors a choice of alternative design themes.

Please note: The figures stated in this article are for total monthly ounces of gold and silver shipped as minted products by The Perth Mint to wholesale and retail customers worldwide during December 2024. They exclude sales of cast bars and other activities including sales of allocated/unallocated precious metals for storage by The Perth Mint Depository.”

Chuck again… I still believe that Silver will out perform Gold on a percentage basis this year, so back up the truck, in my opinion…. 

Market Prices 1/8/2025: American Style: A$ .6202, kiwi .5600, C$ .6953, euro 1.0300, sterling 1.2352, Swiss $1.0975, European Style: rand 18.8696, krone 11.3895, SEK 11.1741, forint 403.30, zloty 4.1477, koruna 24.3934, RUB 105.09, yen 158.22, sing 1.3690, HKD 7.7799, INR 85.86, China 7.3316, peso 20.41, BRL 6.1430, BBDXY 1,312, Dollar Index 109.17, Oil $74.71, 10-year 4.71%, Silver $30.12, Platinum $958.00, Palladium $934.00, Copper $4.18, and Gold…. $2,654.67

That’s it for today… We had visitors yesterday, good friends, Pete and Karen stopped by to say hi…. They used to have a unit in our building, but then bought a house and are quite happy with it…. Our Blues had a 4-3 lead going into the 3^rd period last night, and then ended up losing 6-4…. UGH! Our Blues are so inconsistent…. Mizzou’s win last night was their first SEC Conference win since 2023…. 669 days without a conference win…. They were due! My beloved Cardinals are still attempting to deal Nolan Arenado… Apparently no one wants his contract….  The Cardinals need to trade him, so they can move Nolan Gorman to his original position, 3^rd base…. Here’s hoping a trade gets done soon!   Jimmy Cliff takes us to the finish line today with his song: Hello Sunshine….  don’t know that one? YOUTUBE it, I think you’ll like it!   I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• currencies & metals start the day on a good note….
• Unknowns…. Are what makes the dollar weaker….

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, my well laid plan to get outside in the sun yesterday, had to wait until 2PM, as I fell asleep as I did my compression pumps on my legs…. And would have slept all day, if I didn’t get a phone call waking me up…. I think my cold that I had been fighting is gone, and I haven’t taken any cough medicine in two days! So, back to me! I haven’t really been myself for a couple of weeks now, but I’m now ready to let loose!  The Alan Parson’s Project greet me this morning with their song: Eye In The Sky….

Well, the overnight markets on Sunday night are a thing of the past now, as in the U.S. session, the dollar rebounded by 4 index points in the BBDXY… So, with no follow up in the U.S. session to the overnight selloff, we have to believe that the dollar rally will continue now…. UGH!  

Gold turned the morning weakness into a $10 gain on the day, thus closing at $2637.10, and Silver kept up the pressure on the Silver shorts by gaining 32-cents on the day, thus closing at $30.00  I’m sure that Silver would have moved even higher, but the short paper traders made sure it didn’t pass $30.00. Lola, aka Goldman Sachs issued a report saying ” that it no longer expects the gold price to reach $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025, with the Federal Reserve’s shallower rate cut path pushing the forecast to mid-2026.”

So, Lola says the Fed Heads won’t be cutting rates as much as previously thought, and therefore Gold’s price rise to $3,000 will be delayed…. Well, I don’t know why it would be delayed for lack of rate cuts…. Gold started 2024 around $2,050, and ended 2024 around $2,650…. So, Gold didn’t need two FOMC rate cuts to gain $600 in 2024, why would it need it to gain $400 in 2025?   I’m just saying…. 

The price of Oil slid back to the $73 handle yesterday, and the 10-year bumped up to 4.63% during the day, but settled at the close at 4.61%… 

In the overnight markets last night…. The BBDXY is down 2 index points to start the day today… In the middle of the night, I couldn’t sleep, and looked at the BBDXY and it was down 4 index points, but apparently, that was too much…. The euro trades with a 1.04 handle this morning, to prove my point about how when the dollar gets sold, it doesn’t matter what the economic fundamentals are in the Eurozone, the euro will be the beneficial of the dollar weakness…. We had started the week with the euro at 1.02 and talk of it going to parity with the dollar… Well, that talk has faded for now, and as long as the dollar continues to grow weaker, the talk will fade completely… 

Gold & Silver are starting our Tuesday on a flyer! Gold is up $22 to start the day, and Silver is up 32-cents… Thus, passing the $30 level in Silver, which is not going to go over big with the short paper traders….  

The price of Oil remains trading with a $73 handle, as lack of supply is helping Oil to keep this high… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield has bumped higher to 4.64% this morning… 

Well, here’s some real upbeat news (NOT!)  U.S. Credit Card delinquencies increase last quarter to a very high level…. So, that explains the uptick in Retail Sales, but was it done with borrowed money that is now being late being paid back? Why, yes it was….  the largest number of delinquencies in a very long time…. So, that pretty much tells you that the U.S. Consumer is resorting to borrowed money to buy stuff….  Uh-Oh! 

Well, the news from up north says that the Canadian PM Trudeau has resigned from office…  I read where his approval rating was 65% when he took office in 2015 and was only 20% now….  The Canadian dollar/ loonie didn’t fare badly, in fact it rallied a bit to 70-cents since the news broke… 

Circling the wagons back to the U.S. dollar….  It seems that the weakness we’ve seen this week is in response to the tariffs report that the new POTUS to be, put out Sunday…. There are just too many unknowns on how this will all tae place and work, and what have I taught you about traders all these years? They don’t like unknowns, and so the dollar weakens….  I don’t believe that this is something that will last, and so we can’t hang our hat on the weakness continuing, although that would make sense if it did….  I’m just saying….

At the moment, all markets are in a wait-n-see what happens when Trump takes the reigns…. This won’t last long, as the inauguration data is near, and then it will all be on display for the markets to see what direction they are going to take…. 

And circling back to Silver this morning, here’s something that I came across: Analysts project that there was a fourth straight supply deficit in the silver market, meaning there was more silver consumed than was pulled out of the ground or reclaimed through recycling. This market deficit is expected to come in at around 182 million ounces. A supply crunch is what is needed for Silver to catch up….  

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the Nov. Factory Orders of which, I said would print negative, and voila! They did print negative…. -.4%  No wonder the Purchasing Managers Index remains below 50….  Today’s Cupboard just has the Job Openings, which should remain around 7.7 Million….  The data cupboard has been lacking lately, and I’m not sure why that is…. 

To recap… The dollar rallied on Monday in the U.S. but then got sold again in the overnight markets last night. Chuck believes the weakness is from the unknown of what the new Trump administration will bring the markets….  Gold & Silver are on the rally tracks this morning… And Chuck reports that there is a supply lack in Silver….  The Canadian PM resigned, and the Loonie rallied!   

For What It’s Worth….  Well, I kept telling you last year that Central Banks around the world sans the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, were buying boat loads of physical Gold…. Well, the latest report on dollar holdings in Central Banks is quite telling, and you can find that here: Status of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: USD Share Hits 30-Year Low as Central Banks Pile on Other Currencies & Gold | Wolf Street

Or, here’s your snippet: “The US dollar lost further ground as global reserve currency among many reserve currencies held by central banks. Its share has been zigzagging lower for many years as central banks have been diversifying their holdings to assets denominated in currencies other than the dollar. And they’ve also been diversifying into gold. But the dollar remains by far the dominant global reserve currency.

The share of USD-denominated foreign exchange reserves fell to 57.4% of total exchange reserves the lowest since 1994, according to the IMF’s COFER data for Q3 2024. USD-denominated foreign exchange reserves include US Treasury securities, US agency securities, US MBS, US corporate bonds, US stocks, and other USD-denominated assets held by central banks other than the Fed.

In Q1 2015, the USD’s share was still 66%. Over these 10 years, the dollar’s share of global reserve currencies has dropped by 8.6 percentage points. If this pace of decline continues, the dollar’s share will fall below 50% in less than 10 years, by the end of 2034.”

Chuck Again….  yes, this is how it all begins…. The dollar loses its hold on Central Bank reserves, and then it falls out of bed….

Market Prices 1/7/2025: American Style: A$ .6282, kiwi .5678, C$ .7092, euro 1.0402, sterling 1.2643, Swiss $1.1029, European Style: rand 18.5633, krone 11.2884, SEK 11.0319, forint 398.41, zloty 4.9840, koruna 24.1616, RUB 107.00, yen 157.86, sing 1.3611, HKD 7.7772, INR 85.72, China 7.3264, peso 20.33, BRL 6.0732, BBDXY 1,302.33, Dollar Index 108.13, Oil $73.92, 10-year 4.64%, Silver $30.32, Platinum $961.00, Palladium $934.00, Copper $4.20, and Gold…. $2,669.44

That’s it for today… Sorry about the tardiness of the letter the last two days…  I find that waking up to the alarm doesn’t agree with me any more…. So, you can expect to see this letter a little later in the morning from here on out…. I don’t like that, but it is what it is…. I find myself sleeping a lot these days…. I’ve always been of the mind that your body tells you when you need to sleep…. So, I don’t fight it…  OK, I’ve got my infusion dates scheduled…. So, there won’t be a letter on 1/15 & 16, 2/5 & 6, and 2/26 & 27 and 3/3… I have to fly back to St. louis for the infusions, so a real big hassle, but so be it…. I haven’t noticed any change in the tumor, so I guess time will tell….  at least that’s what I’m hoping for!  Chicago takes us to the finish line today with their song; Feeling Stronger Every Day….  that was my theme song a couple of months ago!   I hope you have a Tom Terrific day today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The long run of dollar rallies ends overnight
• The will they cut rates or not will become a broken record…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, the Midwest got hit by a winter storm this past weekend, and winter came to S. Florida… The contrast on temperatures, etc. I won’t get into, because my friends don’t like it when I do! The NFL playoff teams are set, so let the playoffs begin! And the final four college teams are in the Semifinals… OSU, PS, TU, and ND… Should be some good games! It was a great Friday night in St. louis, as the SLU Billikens won, and the Blues won!  Gary Wright greets me this morning with his song:  Love Is Alive…

I saw Gary Wright open up for Peter Frampton back in the day, and Gary only had keyboard players on stage…. Very Interesting…. 

Well, Friday, last week was just another day for the dollar to gain more ground…. This is really getting out of hand, and the dollar is so overbought right now, that something has to give at some time! The BBDXY gained 2 index points on Friday. The euro has fallen to a 102 handle, and it hasn’t been that weak since it was on its way up from 98 when it was first introduced….  Yes, I was trading currencies back then…. In fact, in 1998, I attended a currency conference in London, and the moderator asked, “Let’s see a show of hands of who doesn’t believe the euro will survive?” And I immediately raised my hand… At that point, there were just too many questions about the euro that I really didn’t think it would work…. 

I soon found out that I was wrong about that, and the euro quickly became the 2^nd highest volume currency traded in the world, and the offset currency to the dollar…. 

OK, enough history today…. Gold was sold on Friday, after gaining $32 on Thursday, it lost $17.80 on Friday… And Silver, after gaining 65-cents on Thursday, was able to hang on to 7-cents of gain on Friday…  Gold ended the week at $2,640, and Silver at $29.68…  On Kitco.com yesterday, they had an article of which I pulled this quote; “After gaining nearly 30% in 2024 – outperforming every commodity and all but a handful of assets – gold prices are still inspiring confidence among many industry experts, while most retail traders see the yellow metal breaking above $3,000 per ounce in 2025.”

So, how many gyrations will we have to live with to get to $3,000?  The short paper traders will still be knocking at the door, and the dollar is supposedly going to remain strong throughout 2025.( that I have a problem believing, but so be it)… So, IF we get to $3,000 it will be a tug-of-war, and I’ll lose more hair trying to make sense of it all… 

The price of Oil bumped higher on Friday and ended the week trading with a $73 handle…  And the 10-year Treasury Bond saw its yield rise to 4.60% to end the week….  The Oil price is finally reacting to the tinder box of the Middle East, it took them awhile to get going, and sometimes I wondered if they really realized what was going on over there.

In the overnight markets last night…. Well, the dollar selloff that I anticipated began…. But is it here to stay? Or, is this just a knee-jerk reaction to the report that came out last night regarding the Trump Tariffs?  Here’s Bloomberg.com with the skinny: “The dollar fell by the most since November 2023 after the Washington Post reported that aides to Donald Trump are considering narrowing the scope of his tariff plan. Stocks advanced, fueled by tech gains.”

Chuck again… The BDDXY has lost 11 index points overnight, and the euro has gained 2 full cents to 1.04 handle this morning… This is wild and crazy folks… One minute the dollar is kicking tail and taking names later, and then it’s not!  I’m not kidding here . This is a one-time fall in the BBDXY that I don’t recall seeing before. Now, if this selling can see some follow through, then we might be getting to the scenario for the dollar that I’ve imagined before… 

Gold is not reacting to this dollar selloff that I would think, but the day is young…. Gold is up $3 to start the day/ week…. Silver is getting bought by the fistful… Silver is up 25-cents to start the day/ week today…  This is not a typical start to the year that we’ve seen lately, where the dollar gets bought to start the year, all the forecasters come out and say, “This is the dollar’s year”, only to see the dollar turn around and get sold the rest of the year…. So to speak…. 

The price of oil bumped higher again overnight to trade this morning with a $74 handle… And the 10-year Treasury bond’s yield is 4.60% to start the day / week this morning…. 

One of the currencies that has historically fought off Dollar strength, the Chinese renminbi, has really plunged with most of the plunging coming at year’s end…. The renminbi is 7.32 to the dollar…. Just last September, the renminbi was 7.01 to the dollar….  And I recall the renminbi trading at 6.30 to the dollar a couple of years ago…. But that was before the world began to unravel….     And I’m sure the Chinese leaders don’t mind if their currency is weak, as it helps offset the effects of the tariffs on their exports to the U.S.  But at 7.32?  That’s quite weak, and I suspect the Chinese to do something about that much weakness soon….  Watch for news about a Stimulus, or something to hep the currency ro gain just a tad…

I read on Bloomberg.com this past weekend that Hedge Funds are eyeing a dollar/ euro parity level…. Really…. These guys really give me a rash… They get wild hair about something, and they go hog-heaven on it…. Well, I hope they get the slop from these ideas…. 

Now, that’s not nice, Chuck….  OK, I’m sorry…. But they do give me a rash!  

OK, longtime reader, Bob, sent me a link to a blog written by Bill Totten, who has been doing this for a long time too, and it his blog he had this: “China has tightened its export bans on materials with military applications. Its customs office is approving sales only to well-known end users, and for non-military use only.

China also has successfully closed off access to its markets by brokers and resellers. These hubs in Hong Kong, Tokyo, New York, and London report being unable to procure any metals in 2024.”

Chuck again… Well, this will only be good for metals prices…. Because the of the lack of supply… And the U.S. can’t decide to ramp up production, because that would take years to come to fruition….  

Well, we’ve got more than 3 weeks of hammering and talk about whether the Fed Heads are going to cut rates at their first FOMC meeting 1/29….   If you can believe one of the Fed Heads who had this to say last week: “Fed’s Barkin: We must see inflation at 2% or weakening in demand to cut rates.”  Hmmm…. I wonder where this guy was when the first rate cut came through back in September, because inflation certainly wasn’t anywhere close to 2% at that time?  So, we’re going to hear a lot of back and forth from the Fed Heads, and economists, and analysts, on whether or not there will be a rate cut this month….  Doesn’t make a hill of beans to me… The dollar is on a roll right now and if they did cut rates, and debase the currency even more, it wouldn’t hurt the dollar, so, fundamentals are out the window right now…. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week has a couple of real economic reports for us to see, like today’s Nov. Factory Orders print…. I suspect that this report will print negative once again….  Last week, I had jumped the gun with my telling you that the Jobs Jamboree was last Friday…. That was obviously incorrect, sorry, and the Jobs Jamboree will be this Friday…. And the so-called experts have forecast that just 155,000 jobs were created in December…. Well, I’m sure the BLS won’t have any of that, and has arms full of jobs created out of thin air to add to the surveys….  I’m just saying…. 

To recap… Friday was another day and therefore another day for the dollar to rally…. Chuck mentions that the Hedge Fund guys are eyeing the euro at parity with the dollar…. UGH!  Gold gained on Thursday and lost on Friday… C’mon gold traders pick a lane! The Chinese are playing with their currency and allowing it to weaken to offset the effects of the tariffs on their exports to the U.S. , but Chuck thinks the weakening has gone too far…. And will the Fed Heads cut rates 1/29 or not? Only the Shadow Knows…. And in the overnight markets the dollar got ambushed by 11 index points in the BBDXY…. 

For What It’s Worth….  I have been accused of being a gloom and doom guy in the past… And yes, while I do walk in those circles, I don’t believe that all this mess will cause an end to the world… But a new beginning after it all collapses… This article ti from Doug Noland who admits the same thing, and it can be found here: It’s Not the End of the World – Doug Casey’s International Man

Or, here’s your snippet: “Periodically, I’ll encounter someone who has read one of my essays and has decided not to pursue them further, stating, “You’re one of those ‘End of the world’ guys. I can’t be bothered reading the writings of someone who thinks we’re all doomed. I have a more positive outlook than that.”

In actual fact, I agree entirely with his latter two comments. I can’t be bothered reading the thoughts of a writer who says we’re all doomed, either. I, too, have a more positive outlook than that.

My one discrepancy with such comments is that I don’t by any means think that the present state of events will lead to the end of the world, as he assumes.

But then, neither am I naïve enough to think that if I just hope for the best, the powers that be will cease to be parasitical and predatory out of sympathy for me. They will not.

For any serious student of history, one of the great realisations that occurs at some point is that governments are inherently controlling by nature. The more control they have, the more they desire and the more they pursue. After all, governments actually produce nothing. They exist solely upon what they can extract from the people they rule over. Therefore, their personal success is not measured by how well they serve their people, it’s measured by how much they can extract from the people.

And so, it’s a given that all governments will pursue ever-greater levels of power over their minions up to and including the point of total dominance.

It should be said that, on rare occasions, a people will rise up and create a governmental system in which the rights of the individual are paramount. This was true in the creation of the Athenian Republic and the American Constitution, and even the British Magna Carta.”

Chuck again… This is a long article, so you’ll have to go to the link to read it all…. 

Market Prices 1/6/2025: American Style: A$ .6294, kiwi .5678, C$ .6998, euro 1.0419, sterling 1.2634, Swiss $1.1084, European Style: rand 18.4734, krone 11.2634, SEK 11.1084, forint 398.10, zloty 4.0786, koruna 24.19432, RUB 108.00, yen 156.57, sing 1.3587, HKD 7.7736, INR 85.82, China 7.3122, peso 20.27, BRL 6.1062, BBDXY 1,300, Dollar Index 109.13, Oil $74.29, 10-year 4.60%, Silver $29.93, Platinum $940.00, Palladium $933.00, Copper $4.18, and Gold…. $2,627.78

That’s it for today…. Winter has come to S. Florida…. I’m not complaining, because it’s still nice outside, just a bit cooler than usual… And it’ll be over in a week….  We had dinner last night with good friends, Jack, Loraine and Gus. Gus’s granddaughter and friend also joined us…. I love when friends get together for food, drink and conversation. I usually don’t say much during dinner, preferring to listen to everyone else’s conversations… I know that’s difficult to imagine, me not saying much, but it’s tru, it’s tru, I did see a putty tat! HA! The Mizzou Tigers didn’t start their conference schedule on the right foot, losing to Auburn…. UGH!  And our Blues lost on Saturday…. So, Friday was good, Saturday not good…. Well, I’ve got to get outside and soak in some Vitamin D, The Great Al Stewart takes us to the finish line today with his song: Year Of The Cat….  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar continues to take prisoners…..
• Chuck’s different slant on The Fed’s rate cuts….

Good Day…. And a Tub Tumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Happy New Year, and welcome to January…. I know it wasn’t much like January weather in the U.S. this past weekend, but as Bob Dylan sang: A hard rain is going to come…. In my humble opinion, I believe the months have gotten out of whack…. And weather we get in January, we used to get in December, and so on… Call me crazy, but it sure appears that way to me! I’m not a meteorologist, nor do I play one on TV! Or, did I stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night! Don Mclean greets me this morning with his beautiful rendition of his song: Vincent…

Well…. A lot has happened since I last wrote a letter to you that wasn’t a briefed work…. Let’s do a recap of the dollar, Gold, Silver, and the economic data that has printed…. OK? 

Not that I’m asking for permission here…. So, here goes…. Gold since I left you on December 18th, has gained $41 as it closed on 12/31/2024 at $2,624.60….. Silver hasn’t been so lucky and has lost 46-cents to $28.86…. I’m reminded by something I pointed out a month or so ago about Silver, and that was that the short paper traders didn’t like Silver above $30….  The BBDXY has gone crazy the last two weeks and has gained from 1,289.48 to 1,309.66 on 12/31/2024….    

My good friend, and former Big Boss, Frank Trotter sent me an article that talked about why the dollar is so strong right now….   It all stems from the the bond boys… The yield on the 10-year has risen to 4.57%….   Now, this attracts a ton of buyers around the world, but what if they were told why the yield is so high, before buying?  Would they still dive in?  I don’t know, but here’s the skinny as I see it…. A bond salesman calls me on the phone and tells me he can put a 4.55% yielding bond in my account today if I give him the wink and nod…. I then ask him, “Why is the yield on the 10-year rising when the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel is cutting rates?  He stammers and says something about lack of supply and some other gobbledygook…  And I tell him, well, you failed the test, brother!  You don’t know why, or you won’t tell me the truth….  So, I proceed to tell him that the bond boys have taken back the reigns on the bond market, and they believe that the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel is leading us to Armageddon, and other bad things… So, you can keep your bond Mr….  and I hung up….

Circling the wagons back to the dollar…. The dollar saw a 7.98% gain in 2024… But that was derived from the rally that the dollar put on starting on 10/1 when it was 1,225….  And was down about 3% on the year at that point…. In short…. Since the election of the new POTUS…. The so-called Trump rally for the dollar has been real…. And a real pain in the rear for yours truly…. Because the economics are not good in the economy, and the Fed Heads will be cutting rates again this spring…. 

I got to thinking about the Fed Heads’ rate cuts so far, and I thought to myself…. These are strange given that their inflation target is not even close to being met, so could there be another reason for the Fed Heads to cut rates?  Well, think about this one, that my tiny brain came up with…. The Fed Heads think that they went too far with rate hikes, and had to correct that!   Now, that makes much more sense than the thought that they cut rates because inflation was under control…. We all know that’s now true….  According to John Williams over at www.shadowstat.com consumer inflation is running around 8%….   Not that the Fed Heads even know who John Williams is or what he does!    But you get my point here…. Right? 

OK, in the markets yesterday….  There was little to no movement in anything, as it was the New Year’s Day Holiday around the world.  That’s why I started today’s letter with a dissertation or two…. 

In the overnight markets last night…. Well, before I retired last night, I checked the screen, and the BBDXY was down 2 index points, so it appeared to me that the dollar would start out the new year, on a down note… But that all changed in the dark of night, and the BBDXY is up 1 index point to start the day, week, month, year….  What else is new? The dollar is up?  Good thing I was gone for a while, otherwise I would have sounded like a broken record every day, saying the dollar is up again today….  

The price of Gold is up to start the day, week, month and year today, $15…. And Silver is up too, which hasn’t been the case many times recently… Silver has gained 54-cents this morning, so that’s a good way to start a year! And with the new trend of Global Central Banks cutting rates again, and the Fed Heads joining in, Gold & Silver should have nothing but green lights all the way downtown!   I believe that 2025 will be another good year for the metals, with or without the short paper traders making things interesting….   

I read in Ed Steer’s letter last week that the number of short contracts in Silver increased an eye watering amount, so I’ll let Ed tell you about this in his own words: “The latest short report was posted on The Wall Street Journal’s website very early on Tuesday evening EST — and it was a shocker as you already know. The short position in SLV rose from 20.06 million shares, up to 50.79 million shares sold short…an increase of an eye-watering 146.55%.  This amount represents 22.5 days of world silver production. The short position in GLD jumped up a bunch as well…from 10.94 million shares sold short, up to 16.21 million shares sold shorts…an increase of 48.18%.”

Chuck again…. How on earth can the regulators allow that to happen? The Silver hasn’t even been mined yet and taken out of the ground, and it’s getting shorted?  Give me a break!  Oh well, you can find Ed at : www.edsteergoldsilver.com

Well, the kindling over in the Middle East is still waiting for a match, to light it, and while we wait, the price of Oil gains because of the thought of a disruption in delivery because of a war…. The price of Oil trades with a $72 handle this morning…. And the 10-year’s yield saw a little buying overnight (The Fed?) and the yield slipped to 4.54%… 

Well, it’s a new year…. What’s i store for us?  To that end, I think that what we’ll see this year, will equal no other year for its nastiness…. Got Gold?   Speaking of Gold, I read, yet another article written by a Gold Analyst, who thinks that the suppression of Commodities will end soon….  I’ve come across so many of these this past year, and each time, I get my hopes up, only to be left at the altar, all by myself…. So, I’ve taken the stance that when I read these that I just repeat…. “I’m from Missouri, you’ll have to show me!” 

Of course I could be wrong, and 2025 turns out to be the best year yet!  Hmmm….  Nah, I’m not switching thoughts here in the middle of the stream….  I’ve been a bear in sheep’s clothing for so long, that it’s difficult to change now… 

So, while I was gone the Bank of Japan left the markets very disappointed on 12/19, when they left their internal interest rate unchanged…. And just like I said it would do if they BOJ left rates unchanged, the yen got sold…. And with the dollar on the warpath, it was not a good time to be yen….  The BOJ failed to give the markets a bone too! They, the BOJ, didn’t give any forecast for the future of interest rates in Japan….  So… Way to go BOJ!  You’ve really slayed them this time! Yes was 157 yesterday….  not that you care about the currency, right?  

The euro, the offset currency to the dollar, has seen better days… With the dollar kicking tail and taking names later these days, the euro has fallen to a 103 handle…. And then mix in the dovishness of the European Central Bank or (ECB ) and you’ve got the recipe for a weak euro…. 

And the Aussie dollar (A$) has been quite resilient with all this U.S. dollar strength going on…  This from Reuters: “The Australian Dollar (AUD) gains ground against the US Dollar (USD) after the Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) from China was released on Thursday. As close trade partners, any fluctuations in China’s economy tend to impact Australian markets.”  

Chuck again… So…. The A$ has been, Not great, but not as bad as the other currencies…

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week has little to no real economic data and will end the week with the December Jobs Jamboree…. We’ll get to see how the BLS pumps up the number of jobs created to make them look good…  One that thinks logically, like me, would think that the BLS would have stopped with their shenanigans after having to do a mea culpa last summer admitting that they had overstated more than 800,000 jobs in 2024…. But noooooooo! They haven’t done a thing to change their methods that reek of hedonic adjustments… 

To recap…. Yesterday was a holiday, so no movements around the world…. While Chuck was gone Gold us up, Silver was down, The price of Oil was up, and the 10-year’s yield was up…. But nothing was up compared to the dollar! The dollar has gone viral, not technically, don’t get me wrong there…. Chuck chastises the BOJ, and hands out an atta-boy to the A$…. 

For What It’s Worth….Well, this article came to me from the good folks at GATA, who had pulled it from another site, and it’s about the war drums beating and that has Gold pushing higher, and it can be found here: ‘It’s a sign of impending wars’: Why a tense world is betting on gold – POLITICO

Or, here is your snippet: “Amid rising uncertainty and fading trust in the global order, central banks are scrambling to stock up on an old but trusty asset — and speculators are joining them for the ride.

The days of navigating treacherous paths through the Rocky Mountains in search of a rich vein of the glittery good stuff might be over. But gold rushes still occur — and we’re in one right now.

As war, ideology and protectionism divide the world into distinct blocs, developing countries in particular are hoarding bullion to prepare for the day when a global financial system dominated by the U.S. and Europe collapses, and a new one can take its place.

That secular trend, which began a decade ago, has been turbocharged this year by more short-term factors, particularly the downward turn in world interest rates. As a result, prices have marched from one record high to another, closing above $2,800 an ounce for the first time ever last week. This year alone, gold is up 35 percent, well ahead of the 20 percent rise in U.S. stocks and more than double what any European stock index can boast.  Goldman Sachs’s Lina Thomas sees it breaching $3,000 by the end of next year.

At the heart of the rally are central banks, particularly those who either are — or fear they could be in the future —on the receiving end of U.S. sanctions. China has bought 316 tons since the start of the Ukraine war. Russia has also been a big buyer, as have central banks in the Middle East, Central Asia and India.

More recently, buying has been dominated by two countries whose histories and recent experiences have sensitized them to geopolitical risk: Poland and Hungary. Poland has long wanted to boost gold to 20 percent of its official reserves, but the National Bank of Hungary resumed purchases for the first time in three years in September, saying: “Amid increasing uncertainty … the role of gold as a safe-haven asset and a store of value is of particular importance, as it enhances confidence in the country and supports financial stability.”

Other officials put it more bluntly.

“It’s a sign of impending wars,” lamented one European central banker, granted anonymity to indulge a brief lapse into alarmism.”

Chuck again…. I sure hope everyone talking about a war is wrong…. 

Market Prices 1/2/2025: American Style: A$.6214, kiwi .5612, C$ .6930, euro 1.0328, sterling 1.2447,  Swiss $1.1018, European Style: rand 18.7306, krone 11.3866, SEK 11.0717, forint 398.44, zloty 4.1267, koruna 24.3781, RUB 111.15, yen 157.19, sing 1.3650, HKD 7.7772, INR 85.75, China 7.2994, peso 20.71, BRL 6.1736,  BBDXY 1,310.76, Dollar Index 108.09, Oil $72.73, 10-year 4.54%, Silver $29.40, Platinum $918.00, Palladium $913.00, Copper $4.01, and Gold…. $2,641.67

That’s it for today… Well, I came back, just like I said I would…. There were some bets being made at Christmas about whether I would or not…. The sun just rose out of the ocean, simply beautiful….  Christmas at the house was great! All the kids, all the grandkids, and relatives…. And New Year’s Eve was as quiet as a church mouse as it was just me and Kathy…. The house was so loud with conversations on Christmas, and then the exact opposite for NYE….  Oh well, we’re old, and the days of going out and celebrating are in our past, I guess….  Kathy celebrated her birthday on Dec. 26…. No big celebration there either, it was all hangover from Christmas…. The infusions of the two new immunotherapy drugs last Thursday, had me not feeling good that day, but bounced back the next day, so if that’s the pattern, I’ll take it! Carol King takes us to the finish line today with her song: So Far Away…. I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and have been being Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler