- BLS cooks up a number that sends the currencies & metals to the woodshed.
- Pfennig Replies are back!
Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! What a doozy of a Jobs Jamboree number the BLS game to us last Friday! I’ll talk more about the BLS in a bit… But first… I’m here all by myself for the next 6 days, as Kathy has gone home to gather up little Evie and take her to Disney World… It’s always very quiet when she’s gone, as I’m not into rattling pots and pans… vacuuming, and moving furniture… I just exist… This is Super Bowl Week, as all the hype for the game will begin, and build toward the start of the game… I heard a player say last week that the Conference Championship Games were the last real football of the year, as the Super Bowl is about Commercials, and parties… I don’t know if I agree with that, but… I do love the Super Bowl Commercials! Hamilton, Joe, Frank and Reynolds greet me this morning with their song: Fallin’ In Love…
Well, well, well, what a tangled web we weave, eh? First of all, last week, the ADP Employment Report said that only 107,000 jobs were added in January… And that was just fine… But then along came the BLS and their surveys, which obviously differed greatly from the ADP’s actual books… The BLS said that 353,000 jobs were created in January! OMG! How can those two reports be so different? Well, one is real (ADP) and one is made up (BLS), and that accounts for a lot of the differences between the two.. I just wish the markets would stop using the BLS report and just use the ADP Employment Report… I’ve said this before, but ADP supplies the payroll systems for just about every company in the country, they SHOULD KNOW the jobs created each month!
The thing I’ve always pointed out that was more important than the number of jobs the BLS creates out of thin air, is the avg wages… And this report points to higher wages,(+4.5%, which was probably made up too!) and that leads into wage inflation, and that news knocked the stuffing out of Gold on Friday… Because that news isn’t going to move the Fed Heads to cut rates any time soon… Gold is supposed to be an inflation fighter, so why would the threat of higher inflation cause it to get sold? Because, these days, I sit on cornerstones and count the time in quarter tones (Jackson Browne) , traders only care about one thing, interest rates… UGH!
So… The dollar on Thursday last week, got sold, and the BBDXY lost 5 index points… And then on Friday morning, the dollar was getting sold some more, losing 2 more index points, until the BLS came out with their made-up jobs numbers… And all of the dollar’s losses leading up to the BLS report were erased and the dollar was back to being the king of the hill… Yes, Gold had gained $15.50 on Thursday, and was up another $5 early Friday morning, but those are just notations now, because Gold ended the week down, after another engineered takedown, Gold lost $14.60 on Friday to end the week at $2,040.20… Silver saw much of the same, losing 25-cents on Thursday, and another 42-cents on Friday to end the week at $22.75… There’s not much I can say other than that this is the same-0, same-0… The PPT steps in and buys dollars to drive the dollar’s value higher, and the short paper traders use this fake background, to engineer takedowns in Gold & Silver… The only silver lining here is that the buying opportunities at cheaper prices is in place now.
A little more on wage increases… There was a chart that I saw on Friday, that showed that the costs of living were rising a much higher rate than wages… If you go to my website: www.dailypfennig.com, you’ll see the chart in the Pfennig letter… I find this to be very telling in that no one, and I mean on one, other than the usual suspects, like me, David Stockman, Doug Casey, etc. will point this out to the masses… I just wish that I still had the number of readers that I used to have, the message would then get out there on a broader basis…
In the overnight markets last night… Well, there’s been no sanity brought to the markets yet, as in the overnight markets the dollar was bought like Tickle Me Elmos… The BBDXY is up more than 4 index points this morning, and after last week dropping to 1,220, it now sits this morning at 1,239… The PPT must be very proud that they scared the bejeebers out of traders who wanted to take the dollar lower last week… And then the stupid BLS jobs report really did a number on the currencies and metals. Gold is down $17 early this morning, and Silver is down 25-cents… Oil is down to a $72 handle, and the bond boys got a shot of reality last week, and the 10-year’s yield is back up to 4.10%… It’s that time again… to batten down the hatches and wait for this all to fly over…
I’m at a loss for words to describe how I yelled at the wall behind my writing table on Friday… I’ll tell you what I think happened with the BLS report… First and foremost, the BLS saw that there were revisions to their made-up numbers in previous month. That revision was 121,000… Oh-no! We can’t show that and keep our jobs! So, they began to fabricate the number of jobs that were created… I’ll repeat that ADP only showed 107,000 jobs in January, and somehow, after putting the numbers in a boiling pot, and adding an eye of newt, and a strand of Dorothy’s hair, the BLS stirred and came up with a number, that the markets took hook, line and sinker!
Before we head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to throw this out there for anyone thinking the NFL had gone too far with publicizing the Taylor Swift attending games… It was reported on Friday that: Taylor Swift has added about $330M in brand value to the Chiefs and NFL. You know, I’m not a fan of her music, I’m too old for that, but I do admit that she did more for the U.S. economy last year with her tour, than anyone!
And more my style of music… Saturday was the day that the airplane, carrying Buddy Holly, Ritchie Valens, and The Big Bopper were killed in plane crash (1959); You know, the day the music died….
The U.S. Data Cupboard last week, has already been drug through the mud, so we refocus out sights on this week’s data cupboard, and quite frankly there’s not a whole lot to look at this week… We will get the pleasure of listening to 9, yes 9 Fed Heads speak this week… It will be Fed Head speaker-palooza!
To recap… Friday, last week was very ugly for all asset classes, with the dollar the clear winner, winner, Chicken dinner… ADP said there were 107,000 jobs created in Jan, and the BLS said there were 353,000 jobs created in Jan. Who was right? Well, that doesn’t really matter, because the markets believed the BLS BS… The dollar got bought hand over fist, and everything else got sold… Currencies, bonds, Oil, stocks, were all thrown under the dollar’s streaking bus..
Before we head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to make a BIG ANNOUNCEMENT regarding the Pfennig… Well, I am now snugly in the arms of Battle Bank… And guess what? The Pfennig Replies button may not show up yet, but it’s fixed, and if you send a reply to: firstname.lastname@example.org, I’ll see it! YAHOO! It’s been a month of Sundays since this was fixed, and I’m so grateful to Jason at Battle Bank for making that happen! So, write that down: email@example.com…
For What It’s Worth… I’ve highlighted, longtime friend, Bill Bonner’s letter from time to time through the years, and yes, they’ve changed distributors through the years, but one thing that remained the same, is Bill’s ability to put into words, what we all have been thinking… His letter can be found here: firstname.lastname@example.org
Or, here’s a snippet of last Thursday’s letter that I found great: ““Information” is not the same as “energy.” Take away the energy and billions of people die.
But take away the Information Revolution and what happens? That would only send us only back into the 1980s. We’re old enough to recall the “World Before the Internet” and what we remember about it was this: it wasn’t bad. Maybe even better.
Cometh the Revolution
The things that mattered – the things we could feel, see, hear, and taste—were very similar to those we have today. We lived with central heating and air conditioning. We ate food that came from all over the world. We laughed at ourselves and others. We watched TV for amusement and read the newspapers for information. All in all, it was a satisfactory time.
Cometh the Information Revolution…after 1990…and things generally went downhill. Growth rates went down. Debt went up. Wages went nowhere. Our politics became disagreeable and dysfunctional. And we couldn’t laugh the way we used to – so many things were off-limits.
And somehow, with all that information at our fingertips we lost track of things we had known for hundreds of years – you can’t spend your way to prosperity…and you can’t bomb your way to security. The Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden administrations tried to do both.”
Chuck again… I agree wholeheartedly with Bill on this!
Market Prices 2/5/2024: American Style: A$ .6596, kiwi .6058, C$ .7418, euro 1.0752, sterling 1.2569, Swiss $1.1502, European Style: rand 18.9629, krone 10.6546, SEK 10.5768, forint 358.39, zloty 4.0283, koruna 23.0193, RUB 91.30, yen 148.50, sing 1.3460, HKD 7.8219, INR 83.06, China 7.1975, peso 17.17, BRL 4.9788, BBDXY 1,239.11, Dollar Index 104.28, Oil $72.00, 10-year 4.10%, Silver $22.50, Platinum $907.00, Palladium $954.00, Copper $3.81, and Gold… $2.023.90
That’s it for today… no football this past weekend, well no games, there were the shenanigans at the Pro-Bowl… This is the time for college basketball to shine… But there are not juggernaut teams any longer… I find myself just going past games that don’t mean anything to me… My beloved Mizzou Tigers lost again on Sat. as did the STL U Billikens… And hockey? Well, I’m down here and I seldom get an opportunity to watch the Blues, so… Well, there are only 9 more days till pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training! Friday was Groundhog day, and in honor of that day, I watched the movie again… Punxsutawney Phil predicted an early spring on Friday… For whatever that’s worth! I used to work with a woman that adored Groundhog Day and would have a party each year on that day! Jim Croce takes us to the finish line today with his song: Hey Tomorrow… We lost Jim Croce too early in life, he had much more great music to share with us… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today and will Be Good To Yourself!