Author: admin

• currencies and metals get bought on Monday
• But the overnight markets see profit taking..

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, no baseball last night for me, instead I watched the Jeopardy Masters Championship quarterfinals… I always try to answer the clues on Jeopardy, and every now and then I get the whole category right! But not often!  Did I tell you that I’m home all by myself until tomorrow as Kathy has gone to the lake with “the girls”…  This is just a precursor for June 10^th through 20th, when Kathy will be in Florida… I guess she thinks I’m good to go now, and I wouldn’t argue with her on that!  Steelers Wheel greet me this morning with their song: Stuck In The Middle With You… 

Well, a headline on Kttco.com said it all last night… “Gold looks good, but silver looks better, and the USD looks terrible”… Couldn’t have said it better myself! The dollar did get sold yesterday, as the rate cut thought we talked about yesterday, filtered through the markets. The BBDXY lost 5 index points on the day, and ended the day at 1,206… The euro remained above the 1.14 figure and the rest of the currencies all perked up during the day. 

Gold, without interference, took off for the hills.. And gained $84 to close at $3,382, and Silver outperformed all the assets, by gaining 86-cents, and was up over $1 at one point in the day…  It’s all about a July rate cut, folks… I told you yesterday that it would be the focus of the media and markets until July 29^th when the FOMC next meets… 

The price of Oil remained above $63 on the day, and the 10-year Treasury saw its yield rise by 2 BPS to 4.45%…  

In the overnight markets last night… What are the foreign markets thinking? The bought dollars hand over fist last night, and the BBDXY Sits this morning up 7 index points at 1,213… I can’t find anything that explains this upward move in the dollar, after getting sold yesterday in the U.S. So, you know what I’m thinking?… The PPT and their treasure chest of Exchange Stabilization Funds stepped in to apply a tourniquet and then some to the dollar… 

Gold can’t add to yesterday’s euphoria in metals and sits this morning down $21 and Silver is down 32-cents… it seemed yesterday, that the past was put in the rearview mirror for the metals, as they rallied BIG TIME… So, I’ll put this down to profit taking this morning… 

The price of Oil bumped up to a $63 handle overnight, and the 10-year’s yield dropped back to 4.43%  I get it, all the talk is about a rate cut in July, but seriously, there are a basket full of things that can take place between now and July 29, so why get all lathered up now?   But that’s the markets for you… 

Ok, so, have you ever wondered what happened to the Audit Fort Know hysteria that was so prevalent this past winter?  Well, it was put on the back burner, where it will remain, probably forever… Why? Because, in my humble opinion, someone with some gray matter thought it over an decided that to make a big deal out of Gold and all the photo ops that would be available, that the public didn’t need to see, and bring Gold to their attention… Remember, Americans for the most part, do not buy or own Gold… Why? Because they must not have the elevator go to the top floor… But that’s just me thinking out loud…  

It has long been the view of the U.S. Gov’t that Gold is an enemy of the dollar, ad it goes back to right after Nixon removed Gold from the dollar in August 1971… Longtime Pfennig Readers may recall when I printed a discussion between Kissinger, and a state dept head, talking about how they need to diss Gold in the public’s eyes…  That’s when I realized that the short paper trading scheme came about from the U.S. Gov’t…  That’s my viewpoint, and you won’t change it… All those calls on the red carpet at EverBank telling me to “cool it with the Gov’t interventions talk” didn’t budge me on iotal… So, don’t even think about trying to change my mind!

OK, I had a dear reader send me a note asking me about BASEL III and Gold…  So, basically, BASEL III   is a set of internationally agreed upon regulatory standards for banks, has a significant impact on gold, particularly in how banks classify and manage it. Under Basel III, physical gold is now recognized as a Tier 1 asset, meaning banks can use it as a high-quality reserve asset, similar to cash or government bonds. This change has implications for gold’s demand, price, and its role in the financial system. 

The Basel Framework as implemented in the EU, UK and the US also recognizes gold as a form of eligible “financial collateral” that banks can use for the purpose of credit risk mitigation with respect to collateralized transactions. This places gold alongside other assets, such as cash, debt securities, and equities. And…. 

Would open the door to Banks buying Gold and holding it in reserves, and using it for collateral etc.   This has been in the cards for sometime and I recall writing about it when it was first passed, but its start data was so far out, that it just got put on the back burner… But I recall me saying that this regulation was BIG for Gold back in the day, and I still believe that!  

And there are thoughts that BASEL III will be the end of the short paper trading… For, IF banks do partake in owning Gold as collateral, they won’t want some entity to mess with their accounting and pricing of the collateral… Now, that would be simply wonderful, folks…   I’m just saying… 

OK, the dollar seems to be teetering here… it’s gone back and forth around the 100 level in the Dollar Index and 1,215 in the BBDXY… There are plethora of items lining up to take a short at the dollar these days…  We have the tariffs on/ off debacles, we have the ratings cut by Moody’s, we have the new thought that interest rates could be cut in July, we have the debt, which is still growing and most likely to get a boost in debt growth with the passage of the Big Beautiful Bill, and then we have questions about our ability to sell enough Treasuries to finance the debt…  

There are more, but what’s the use of listing them when we know that the PPT will not allow the dollar to drop too much…  Much like the Fed Heads prevent a recession from happening, and cleaning out all the excesses, the PPT won’t allow a weak dollar trend to gain roots… 

And since this is a Jobs Jaboree week, this article on zerohedge.com is appropriate… “For years, the federal government has been telling us that the unemployment rate in the U.S. is very low.

Everyone knows that is a bunch of hogwash.

According to a report that was recently released by the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity, the true rate of unemployment in the U.S. was 24.3 percent last month…  

The article then goes on to say: “Do you ever feel like you are “functionally unemployed”?  If so, you are definitely not alone.  There are lots of people out there that cannot pay the bills each month even though they have jobs.  In fact, there are lots of people out there that literally cannot afford to put a roof over their heads even though they are employed.  Yes, there are many hard-working Americans that are now living in their vehicles or in “tent communities” because that is all they can afford.  In recent years, the cost of living has been rising much faster than paychecks have, and so now a substantial percentage of the population is living in a state of constant financial stress.  The middle class has been collapsing all around us, and we are witnessing an extraordinary amount of economic suffering all over the country right now.”

Chuck again… I know that this all sounds like Armageddon, but the truth hurts…  I don’t like writing about this stuff, but it’s there, and needs to be discussed… I’m just saying…

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the May ISM (manufacturing index) and like I told it would do, it printed below 50 at 48.5… Still contracting, as the tariffs haven’t helped yet… 

Today’s Data Cupboard will have the April Factory Orders for our viewing… I suspect that this print will be negative as Durable Goods were, and the ISM was negative… 

To recap… The dollar and metals got sold BIG TIME yesterday, as the July rate cut scenario played out for the markets… Chuck warned us yesterday that the talk about the July rate cut would become daily stuff in the media and markets and it has already started! Chuck is very opinionated this morning, laying it on the line (Triumph)…

For What it’s Worth… i’ve talked about this scenario several times in the past, but as usual I find that people sometimes listen to someone else better… This is about the financing of the debt and it can be found here: Finance leaders fear destructive U.S. debt scenario

Or, here’s your snippet: “Hundreds of times a year, the U.S. Treasury auctions off debt securities — bills, bonds, and notes. This is how Uncle Sam borrows the billions needed to finance the government’s deficits.

The big picture: Top financial and business leaders, including some who served at high levels in President Trump’s first term, are increasingly worried that something could go awry.

The fear is that not enough buyers will show up one day, resulting in a damaging loss of confidence and a spike in all Americans’ borrowing costs.

If that were to happen, leaders warn, it could cause lasting damage by shifting the entire U.S. economy into a new, higher interest-rate equilibrium.

What they’re saying: “If you want an unpredictably wide swing in volatility, have a failed debt auction in the United States,” Gary Cohn, a former Trump White House adviser and president of Goldman Sachs, said in a Reagan National Economic Forum panel Friday at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California.

“We have the most robust debt market in the world until we don’t,” he said. “If there lacks interest from foreign investors, and there lacks interest from U.S. investors … rates will move out dramatically.”

Chuck again… Yes, this all works until it doesn’t, and then we as a country as up the creek without a paddle… 

Market Prices 6/3/2025: American Style: A$ 6453, kiwi .5992, C$ .7282, euro 1.1381, sterling 1.3504, Swiss $ 1.2149, European Style: rand 17.8792, krone 10.1313, SEK 9.5991, forint 354,74, zloty 3.7603, koruna 21.8701, RUB 79.99, yen 143.42, sing 1.2890, HKD 7.8445, INR 85.57, China 7.1883, peso 19.25, BRL 5.6916, BBDXY 1,213, Dollar Index 98.83, Oil $63.31, 10-year 4.43%, Silver $34.52, Platinum $1,066.00, Palladium $1,030, Copper $4.79, and Gold… $3,361

That’s it for today… I know, I’m late today with the letter… I overslept… good for me!  I totally missed that yesterday was Lou Gehrig day…  The Ironhorse of baseball died of ALS… My sister, Barbie doll, died of ALS… So, the day that they talk about Lou Gehrig, I think of my sister… The rain comes back tonight… and stays with us through Thursday… UGH! No sitting outside to read! I’m into reading the Cormoran Strike books now… These are 1,000-page books!  So, I can’t knock them out in a couple of days like I do other books… Paul Simon takes us to the finish line today with his song: You Can Call me Al….  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and will Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies & metals slug through the end of last week in a rut…
• But the breakout happened in the overnight markets last night!

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals came home from two 3-game road series with a record of 3-3… Play .500 on the road and .750 at home… That was the secret to the pennant in the old days before Wild Card teams… It was an absolute Chamber of Commerce weekend weather here in the MidWest… And it will carry over today, but tomorrow, rain will come back… UGH! The Rolling Stones greet me this morning with their song: Don’t You Hear Me Knocking?

We’ve seen a lot of give and take in both the currencies and metals in recent trading, and that pattern seems to be going to be with us for the near future… The dollar, which got sold on Thursday last week, turned around and got bought on Friday, with the BBDXY gaining 3 index points. The euro has climbed back above the 1.13 handle, and the rest of the currencies are bouncing back and forth aping what the euro does…  

Thursday’s Data Cupboard was quite a surprise… Personal Income and Spending was down in April, which was interesting, especially the Personal Spending, in a month that held the Easter holiday.  The other piece of data that was interesting was the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) The supposed favorite Inflation calc of the Fed Heads…  And it dropping was cause of the dollar getting sold on Thursday last week, because the markets thought that it gave the Fed Heads a green light toward cutting rates in July… 

Gold saw a $31 gain on Thursday and then a $29 loss on Friday…  Gold, to me seems to be moving sideways at the time… which normally in the days when I was on the trading desk, you went away in May and didn’t look or wild swings either way with Gold throughout the summer… But in recent years Gold has shrugged that old thought off, and rallied…  I don’t know what it’s going to take to get Gold back on the rally tracks stably…  Both Silver and Gold are in the neutral range in the RSI (relative strength Index) so, there’s no indication there of a move either way… 

The POTUS doesn’t seem to help the Gold bugs any, with his tariffs on/ tariffs off announcements… While I’m talking about all this back and forth, the dollar also seems to be in this pattern… So… maybe, just maybe, because you never know (Andujar) the old go away in May thought is coming back… ?

After slipping below the $62 handle on Thursday, the price of Oil bumped back over the figure, and finished the week trading with a $62 handle once again… The 10-year Treasury didn’t see much movement from the data prints late last week and finished the week trading with a 4.48% yield… ]

In the overnight markets last night…There was finally a breakthrough for the dollar and metals… The dollar is getting sold to start the day/ week, and the BBDXY is down 1 index point. But the point here is that the currencies are reacting like the dollar is getting sold down the river. The euro has climbed above the 1.14 handle, and the Swiss franc has climbed above 1.22. The Russian ruble is trading with a $78 handle this morning, and even the Japanese yen is rallying this morning…  So, kudos to the foreign currencies this morning, they seem to get it! 

Gold is up $62 to start the day/ week this morning, and Silver is up 52-cents… I think the thought about the Fed Heads cutting rates next month is finally taking hold of the markets’ sentiment…  I like what I’m seeing this morning, folks.. The breakout has finally taken place, and now we can get back to the currencies and metals rallying, while the dollar gets sold.  

The price of Oil, too, has bumped higher this morning and trades with a $63 handle. The 10-year Treasury bond is getting bought this morning and trades with a 4.43% yield… I think what’s going on here is that the bond boys finally think the Fed Heads just might cut rates in July…   

The markets are going to focus on this thought of a rate cut in July, and that’s what the news articles and videos are going to be all about until we get to the FOMC day in July…  BTW the July date isn’t until July 29, so we’ve got a long waiting period ahead of us, and a lot can happen before we get there… 

Things like the May Jobs Jamboree that will take place this Friday,…  Right now, the forecast for the Jobs created in May is just 125,000… But there’s no way the BLS will allow a low number like that to be printed… I’m just saying… 

I found this article headline on the DailyHodl.com “$413,200,000,000 in Unrealized Losses Hit US Banks As FDIC Warns Rising Rates Adding Pressure”

Chuck again… yes, and I’ve got something for you in the FWIW today that addresses these losses and what The U.S. could do to manage the debt and therefore the losses.. 

The Good Folks at GATA sent me this note: “On this week’s edition of Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program, London metals trader Andrew Maguire says the international shift from gold derivatives to physical gold is hastening, led by China and the BRICs countries.

The report, “Bullion Banking Explained,” was effectively an admission from inside the bullion banking industry that it was using the futures markets to create vast supplies of imaginary gold that suppressed the price of the monetary metal. CPM Group, Maguire says, has tried to conceal that report but it remains at GATA’s internet site. Maguire says the fraudulent regime of the bullion banking industry is coming to an end.”

Chuck again… now that’s music to my ears! That the fraudulent regime of the bullion banking industry is coming to an end! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard from last week has already been covered ahead… Today’s Data Cupboard has the ISM for May (manufacturing index), which has been below the contraction denominator of 50 for quite a few months now… One would think that if the POTUS’s plan works out that Manufacturing would rebound, but I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see, eh?  

To recap… The dollar and metals seems to be moving sideways these days… Up one day, down the next with no real direction for them to take… Chuck thinks that maybe we could be seeing the old adage of Go Away In May…  The Banks have HUMONGOUS Losses on their books from the rise of yields in bonds… If you recall that was the death knell of the banks last March… The problem was taken care of then, and it could be coming back to haunt us… 

For What It’s Worth… This article I found this weekend, and it talks about the U.S.’s debt and what they my be forced to do to manage it and it can be be found here: US Government May Be Forced To Impose Widespread ‘Financial Repression’ To Keep $36,000,000,000,000 Debt Burden Manageable: UBS – The Daily Hodlfo

Or, here’s your snippet: “The global wealth manager UBS says that the US government’s massive $36.2 trillion debt burden may cause it to take more extreme financial measures.

In a new report, UBS says that the US government may be forced to make its growing debt burden more manageable by turning to additional financial repression measures that would artificially lower the yield on government bonds.

“We expect that, over the longer term, the US government may pursue both fiscal consolidation and financial repression – a phenomenon that already exists in some form in the US and many other countries – to contain yields and keep the high debt burden manageable.”

One potential financial repression measure may be to reform the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) for US banks, according to UBS.

“Presently, large US banks must hold equity capital against all assets, including high-quality ones like Treasuries. Loosening the SLR could be justified as supporting bank lending, but excluding Treasuries from capital requirements would incentivize banks to hold more Treasuries, potentially enhancing market liquidity.”

UBS says the US is well-positioned to successfully implement financial repression measures, as long as they are put in place on a temporary basis.”

Chuck again… Well, let’s hope it’s not a “temporary Basis” like taking the dollar off the Gold Standard was in 1971…   

Market Prices 6/2/2025: American Style: A$ .6482, kiwi .6016, C$ .7297, euro 1.1416, sterling 1.3528, Swiss $1.2226, European Style: rand 17.9353, krone 10.0882, SEK 9.5082, forint 352.99, zloty 3.5292, koruna 21.8824, RUB 78.99, yen 142.98, sing 1.2883, HKD 7.8442, INR 85.35, China 7.1990, peso 19.27, BRL 5.6909, BBDXY 1,210, Dollar Index 99.36, Oil $63.44, 10-year 4.43%, Silver $33.49, Platinum $1,058.00, Palladium $1,006.00, Copper $4.87, and Gold… $3.359.10

That’s it for today… I forgot to welcome you to June… above… and Pfennig tradition calls for this:  June is busting out all over, all over the meadows and the hill, Buds ’re bustin’ outa bushes, And the rompin’ river pushes Every little wheel that wheels beside a mill.  A little Rodgers and Hammerstein to start your day! I was supposed to be appearing in the H.S rendition of Carousel… Had rehearsed, and was ready to perform when the teachers went on strike in 1973… So, no musical, no performance, we almost didn’t have a graduation! Oh well, I was never going to be the next Gordon MacRae anyway! Van Morrison takes us to the finish line today with his song: Into The Mystic…  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• who believes their lies any longer anyway?
• The dollar continues to get bought on Wednesday…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! My beloved Cardinals took the rubber game last night to win the series with the O’s 2 out of 3… When I watched the Cardinals in Spring Training, they sure didn’t look like the team that’s playing now… My lunch with my classmates was great, and I thank Cathy Reis for the ride! The Cure greets me this morning with their song: Pictures Of You… 

Well, it’s as if the selling of the dollar last week never happened, because the buying of the dollar this week has erased the losses the dollar garnered late last week… The BBDXY gained 9 index points yesterday… The currencies have all been sent back to their sick beds…  Gold has been treated like its persona non gratis… 

Gold lost $17 yesterday and closed at $3,284… Silver lost ground too by 29-cents and closed at $33.06…  Don’t look to the stocks for relief here, because they are wishy-washy these days… 

The FOMC’s Meeting Minutes revealed that the Fed Heads all think that the economy is doing well, in spite of the on / off tariffs hanging over the economy like the Sword of Damocles… (my words, not the Fed Heads, they probably don’t even know the story of Damocles!) 

The price of Oil seems to b stuck in the mud, but then now that I’ve said that it’ll move one-way or another… Oil is hanging out trading with a $61 handle… and the 190year Treasury saw some more buying as its yield slipped to 4.44%

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar buying stopped, but there was no dollar selling, the BBDXY is trading in the same clothes it wore at the U.S. close yesterday… 1,220…  Maybe the intervention is over now, and we can come back out to play?  I call it intervention because the dollar reacted to the Judge’s ruling about tariff far too much, without some sort of intervention going on… I’ll bet a shiny quarter that this is what took place yesterday…  

Gold is up $19 in the early trading this morning, and Silver is up 49-cents to start our day today… And maybe the short paper traders are taking a pause for the cause this morning…  I doubt it, but there’s always the possibility that they need to fall back and reload… let’s hope so, eh?  The price of Oil bumped higher to a $62 handle this morning, so there’s that… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield saw a rise to 4.48% overnight… I guess the Fed Heads have to sleep sometime, eh?   Man I’m very combative this morning, aren’t I? That’s how I live to be when I write, because someone has to ask the questions and look under the hood, because there are no invstigative journalists any longer, or at least there doesn’t seem to be any… 

I’m no stock jockey, and I don’t play one on TV, nor did I stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night, but to me, if the whole stock rally is waiting on the Fed Heads to cut rates, they may be waiting a long time… They also seem to be weighed down by the tariffs talk…   I saw a headline on MarketWatch yesterday that siad, “If stocks aren’t going anywhere, here’s where you need to hang out”…

Now, if I had said that I would be telling you to buy Gold, but then you knew that already, didn’t ya? 

Fed Head Barkin was talking on Bloomberg radio yesterday, and said that the Fed Heads believe that “the economy is on the same trajectory as the last year or two”…   Which, when you break that down, you find out that the economy is going nowhere.. .Slow growth, sticky inflation and more unemployment…   I’m just saying…

Well, a Federal Judge ruled yesterday that the Trump’s Tariffs are illegal…  Wait, What?  No wonder the dollar bulls were dancing in the street yesterday…  But just like the delays in the tariffs, this ruling doesn’t mean that the tariffs are dead in the water… We’ll have to keep an eye on this because I doubt this ruling will stand as it is… 

So, what did you think about the FWIW article yesterday?  Were you Googling how to deposit Gold in Singapore? For those of you who missed class yesterday, or just didn’t want to read the FWIW article, I’m talking about how the uber Rich are moving their Gold storage to Singapore, to escape all the chaos and turmoil going on in the U.S. especially after Moody’s dropped the U.S.’s Credit rating from AAA..  S&P and Fitch had already dropped the U.S.’s AAA credit rating a few years ago… Moody’s was just late to the party, and basically was telling us something we already knew, that the U.S. debt and future debt is out of control… And the threat to the economy is HUGE! But I’ve been through all of that and won’t make you go through it again…

The U.S. Data Cupboard today, will have the first revision of 1^st QTR GDP, which printed the first time at negative -.3%…  I think this will see a downward revision and should be enough to shut the rate cut folks up!   We’ll also see the usual Thursday print of Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which have been very slowly moving higher…   Other than that, there will be 4 Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel heads out speaking today… 

To recap… The dollar was on a rampage yesterday, as a Federal Trade judge ruled that Trump’s tariffs are illegal… That set the dollar bugs to dancing in the street, and the currencies all being sent directly to their sick beds, with no passing GO, or collecting $200…  Chuck thinks this reaction was similar to the announcement of a delay in the tariffs… Memo to the dollar bugs… This was a delay, not a deep sixing of the tariffs… I’m just saying…

For What It’s Worth….Ok, there’s such a emptiness of economic news this morning, so I looked to Ed Steer’s letter for this article. It’s about what the Fed Heads talked about at their last meeting and it can be found here: Fed worried it could face ‘difficult tradeoffs’ if tariffs reaggravate inflation, minutes show

Or, here’s your snippet: “Federal Reserve officials at their meeting earlier this month worried that tariffs could aggravate inflation and create a difficult quandary with interest rate policy, minutes released Wednesday show.

The summary of the May 6-7 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee reflected ongoing misgivings about the direction of fiscal and trade policy, with officials ultimately deciding the best course was to keep rates steady.

“Participants agreed that uncertainty about the economic outlook had increased further, making it appropriate to take a cautious approach until the net economic effects of the array of changes to government policies become clearer,” the minutes said. “Participants noted that the Committee might face difficult tradeoffs if inflation proves to be more persistent while the outlooks for growth and employment weaken.”

Though policymakers expressed concern about the direction of inflation and the vagaries of trade policy, they nevertheless said that economic growth was “solid,” the labor market is “broadly in balance” though risks were growing that it could weaken, and consumers were continuing to spend.

Chuck Again…. Ahem, Fed heads… I’d like to direct your attention to the 1^st Revision of GDP that will print today, and most certainly will be negative…  Do, you really, seriously with a straight face think the economy is “Solid”? Do, you really think that we the people, believe your lies any longer?

Market Prices 5/28/2025: American Style: A$ .6409, kiwi .5864, C$ .7232, euro 1.1286, sterling 1.350479, Swiss $1.2089, European Style: rand 17.8420, krone 10.1796, SEK 9.6061, forint 358.23, zloty 3.5823, koruna 22.0865, RUB 78.50, yen 144.82, sing 1.2897, HKD 7.8396, INR 86.57, China 7.1886, peso 19.48, BRL 5.6899, BBDXY 1,220, Dollar Index 99.82, Oil $62.15, 10-year 4.48%, Silver $33.55, Platinum $1,091.00, Palladium $1,000.00, Copper $4.71, and Gold… $3,303

That’s it for today… And this week… I do believe I’m here all next week, so make sure you tip the waiters, and try the veal! HA! I treated myself to a double smash burger yesterday at lunch… That’s the first one I’ve had in months!   And I devoured it quickly! Like I hadn’t eaten in days! I told you yesterday morning that my stomach was saying: “feed me”… And I waited until lunch to eat! My beloved Cardinals travel now to Arlington Texas, to play the Rangers… I know what I’ll be doing this weekend! So far this year, I’m enjoying watching the Cardinals play… I hope that excitement lasts all summer! I don’t have anything else to say so… The Guess Who takes us to the finish line today with their song: Share The Land…   I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please or please with sugar on top, remember to Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• currencies & metals get sold on Tuesday…
• Packing up the truck and moving to Beverly Hills…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! My beloved Cardinals bounced back last night VS the Orioles and will play the rubber game of the series tonight… Next stop… Arlington, to play the Rangers… I was all alone last night, and decided that I wouldn’t eat dinner, just have a snack, which has my stomach talking to me this morning, saying” Feed me”… HA! The Cure greets me this morning with their song: Lovesong… 

Well, when I left you yesterday morning, the dollar was in the rally seat, with the BBDXY up 4 index points, thus pushing down the mini rally that the currencies had put together late last week.  But just as the day of trading was coming to a close, the dollar gave up some ground, and ended the day up just 1 index point to 1,211… 

The talk of delaying the EU tariffs until July got traders thinking that they might not come at all, given the time between now and then to negotiate a better trade deal… The Donald giveth to Gold, the Donald taketh away from Gold… Gold lost $41 yesterday, to close at $3,301… So, Gold was down $60 early yesterday morning, and rallied a bit to get back to $3,300… Silver lost 19-cents to close at $32.31…   

Last week the POTUS announced new tariffs, and Gold rallied, and then 5 days later he announced a delay in the tariffs until July, and Gold got sold…  Well, there was the usual participation by the short paper traders in Gold… But they have been in there just about every day since well, for a long time. So much so, that we all just assume that they are there each and every day, keeping a lid on Gold (& Silver)  just for GP… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $61 handle throughout yesterday, and the 10-year saw some buying and its yield drop to 4.46%… Not a lot of buying and not a lot of yield drop either!  But there was some nonetheless…

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar was the currency of choice by traders, and they really liked the dollar! The BBDXY is up 6 index points this morning at 1,217…  Here we go again with the dollar getting bought because the POTUS has flipped flopped on his EU tariffs… This delay in the tariffs to July, has got me thinking that the time period between now and July is going to be used to negotiate a better trade deal, for if it’s not, then all this dollar buying will have to reversed in 2 months… Or, probably before then if it appears there are no negotiations ongoing… 

Gold is up $9 to start our day today, and Silver is down 15-cents. Gold had to do a lot of fighting yesterday to get back to $3,300 after falling below that figure during the day. Gold fought back through $17 of loss to get to $3,300… but… at one point of the 24-hour day, Gold was $56 dollars higher… That’s a $73 dollar swing, that was caused by the short paper traders…   

Speaking of Gold… The governors of the states of Missouri and Florida both have signed bills making Gold and Silver legal tender in their respective states.. Good for them! That makes 11 states that have made Gold & Silver legal tender…  here’s something I found on Ed Steer’s letter this morning that really illustrates how Gold has performed…  you can find this at www.edsteergoldsilver.com   Here you go… “”If you bought a home in 1979, the average cost was $75,000; those were the days,” said Rep. Doug Bankson. “If you bought that same home, that same product, now it would be $531,000. However, if you had bought that in gold in 1979, it would’ve been 268 ounces. Today, if you bought that home, 268 ounces. Why? Because it’s a tangible thing that has true value.”

Goes to show ya, that it’s the dollar that has dropped VS Gold…  I’m just saying… 

Well, The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chairman, Jerome Powell, isn’t just getting slammed for not cutting rates from the POTUS, but he’s also getting it from the head of the housing Agency… Here’s the skinny from: The Hill.com “The director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) took to social media Monday to tell Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that it’s time to resume the central bank’s interest rate cuts.

“Jay Powell needs to lower interest rates  — enough is enough,” he wrote. “President Trump has crushed Biden’s inflation, and there is no reason not to lower rates. The housing market would be in much better shape if Chairman Powell does this.”

Chuck again… Yes, Mr. Housing Director that would help your business now, wouldn’t it? But what would it do to fuel the fire of inflation?  Sure, Housing is a BIG DEAL in this country, but inflation would carry a Bigger Stick and affect everyone that’s not a part of the 1%… That’s far too many more affected people than are looking to buy a house! 

I could be like this guy and say that interest rates need to be cut to help Gold reach higher levels.. But I don’t, and won’t, because I know what comes behind a rate cut…  

Speaking of rate cuts, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) did announce a rate cut of 25 basis points to 3.25%…  They cited that inflation was 2.5% in the 1st QTR, which is smack dab in the middle of the 2-3% inflation target range… But the thing that bothers me about this rate cut is the fact that inflation rose in the 1^st QTR to 2.5% from 2.2%…  So, inflation is on the rise, and you decide to cut rates…   Well, these are not the RBNZ that was once run by Don Brash!  Now that was a Central Bank Gov. That understood how inflation is sticky and unless you beat it death, it will come back with a vengeance! 

Well, the Housing Director wasn’t the only person gaining an ear (the media)  guy out there calling for rate cuts here in the U.S.  a veteran stock picker who has been navigating the market since the 1980s, is the founder of Navellier & Associates, a firm with about $1 billion in assets under management. Is calling for rate cuts… Louis Navelier is on record now, saying that he’s not afraid of inflation…  

Ok, I made that last part up about what said about inflation… But when you look at anyone calling for rate cuts, what they’re saying is that they are not afraid of inflation!  Plain and simple…  I’m just saying… 

Reuther.com reported yesterday that the European Central Bank (ECB) President, Christine LaGarde was speaking yesterday, and this is what she said, ”  The euro could become a viable alternative to the dollar, earning the 20-nation bloc immense benefits, if governments could only strengthen the bloc’s financial and security architecture, “

Well, while we’re talking about the euro, to compete with the dollar was the main reason the architects o the euro came up with the idea… 

Chuck again… Sure it would take years to gain this competition, but by becoming the offset currency to the dollar after about 10 years of existence, the euro remains the offset currency to the dollar, and that keeps them ready and willing to take over the dollar’s reign, when the time comes for the U.S. Empire’s dollar hegemony to be over… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday, had the April Durable Goods Orders, of which I said would be disappointing, and it was as it printed at negative – 6.3%… but given the spin doctors this was perceived by the markets as “good” because it beat the expectations for a -7.8%…   And The STUPID Consumer Confidence soared higher from 86 to 98… And why were these people that were polled so confident? Apparently they asked people that had been living under rocks, because there was no reason on earth for them to be Confident! 

Today’s Data Cupboard only has the FOMC Meeting Minutes from their last meeting… As usual the wordsmiths of the world will be going of the Minutes with fine-toothed comb to see if there are any hints in there of what the Fed Heads are thinking of…   Hey! They’ve got one job to do! Don’t laugh at them! 

To recap… The day started with the dollar in rally mode, but by the end of the day the rally was pared down to just 1 index point in the BBDXY… But Gold couldn’t find a bid yesterday and lost $41 on the day… Most of the media pointed to the announcement of a delay in the tariffs for the EU until July… This is a rerun of the events that took place after the Chinese tariffs were delayed 90 days…   memo to the markets: This is a delay, not an ending of the tariffs… you might want to curb your enthusiasm a bit… 

For What It’s Worth… The Good Folks at GATA sent me this article that’s about how the really rich folks are storing their Gold in Singapore and it can be found here: The ultra-rich are moving gold to Singapore as global risks mount

Or, here’s your snippet: “The ultra-wealthy are increasingly moving their gold offshore as economic and geopolitical uncertainty roils markets — and Singapore is emerging as a favored destination.

Not far from the city-state’s airport sits a six-story facility covered in onyx and fortified by tight security. Tucked behind its steel doors are gold and silver bars amounting to about $1.5 billion.

Known as “The Reserve,” the storage facility features scores of private vaults and a towering storage chamber lined with thousands of safe deposit boxes reaching three stories high.

From the start of the year to April, the precious metals repository has received an 88% increase in orders to store gold and silver in the vault from the same period in 2024, said its founder, Gregor Gregersen. The Reserve, which also sells gold and silver bars, saw sales for precious metals bars skyrocket 200% year on year in that time, data provided by The Reserve showed.

“A lot of very high net worth clients are looking at tariffs, looking at the world changing, looking at the potential of geopolitical instabilities,” Gregersen told CNBC.

“The idea of putting physical metal in a safe jurisdiction like Singapore with parties they can trust is becoming a big trend nowadays,” he said, adding that 90% of the new orders are coming from outside of Singapore.”

Chuck Again…  yeah, who can blame them for moving their Gold holdings to Singapore? The problem with this as I see it is how long will it take to have the Gold sent back if the holder needs it?   B7t I can’t get this picture out of my mind, of the Clampets loading up the truck to move to Beverly Hills!

Market prices:   5/28/2025: American Style: A$.6438, kiwi .5988, C$ .7231, euro 1.1315, sterling 1.3472, Swiss $1.2088, European Style: rand 17.9171, krone 10.1879, SEK 9.6108, forint 356.14, zloty 3.7456, koruna 22.0257, RUB 79.56, yen 144.43, sing 1.2873, HKD 7.8382, INR 85.36, China 7.1949, peso 19.28, BRL 5.6187, BBDXY 1,217, Dollar Index 99.72, Oil $61.51, 10-year 4.44%, Silver $33.20, Platinum $1,097.00, Palladium $977.00, Copper $4.76, and Gold… $3,310

That’s it for today…  I got outside yesterday to read, for the first time In 3 days… The weather here in recent days has been yucky… and conducive to sitting outside…  I think the rest of the week is supposed to warmer with more sun… I’ve got my fingers crossed!  I’m going to lunch today with my classmates… I’m excited to see them, as I haven’t seen them since December… We’ve tried to meet up each month and I seem to be the one that misses most of the meetings! UGH! I still am not able to drive myself, because of my vision, so I have to be picked up! But hopefully that will all change on June 9th, when I go for cataract surgery…  J.D. Southern takes us to the finish line today with his song: You’re Only Lonely…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rallied late last week
• Who’s buying Treasuries? We know who!

Good day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals swept the Diamondbacks and headed to Baltimore to take on the old St. Louis Brown, I mean, the Orioles, to which they lost yesterday… The Cardinals are attempting to catch the Cubs for first place in the Central Division and are now 3 games out… Do the Cubs ever lose? Elvin Bishop greets me this morning with his song: Fooled Around And Fell In Love… 

Well, Thursday last week saw the dollar get ambushed, as the BBDXY lost 9 index points, and on Friday again the dollar saw selling with the BBDXY losing 7 more index points, to finish the week at 1,211…  Gold finished the week last at $3,356, and Silver finished the week at $33.45, after both seeing buying one day and selling the next… 

Yesterday, Gold was sold and lost $14 to close at $3,342, and Silver gained 9-cents to close at $33.54….  The price of Oil rebounded late last week and ended the week trading with a $61 handle, while the 10-year Treasury bond sees its yield rise every time the Fed Heads aren’t in buying bonds, stealthily… The 10-year closed yesterday with a yield of 4.49%… 

In the overnight markets last night…  The short paper traders were hitting the overnight markets with strength because of the lack of volume.. Gold is down $51 to start our day/ week… The short paper traders are using the idea that the trader kerfuffle has eased… I doubt that will last long, so use the dip in the Gold price to below $3,300 as your opportunity to buy… I can’t describe this opportunity any better… I’m just saying…  The Dollar has rebounded a bit overnight, and the BBDXY has gained 4 index points to start our day/ week… Looks like intervention working here in the dollar trading..  I mean, look at late last week’s ambush of the dollar and then what was the reason for this dollar buying?  Just put 2 and 2 together.. It’s easy math… 

The price of Oil remains trading with a $61 handle, and the 10-year Treasury is seeing some buying… From whom? This bond is the same as the dollar… it saw major selling late last week, and this week it rebounds miraculously!  I don’t believe in coinkidinks, and so, this must be intervention… 

Ok, I keep talking about how the Fed Heads said that they were no longer in the bond buying business, but then they get caught with their hands in the cookie jar, buying bonds to keep yields in check…. Here’s the headline that I saw yesterday: “Fed Quietly Buys $43,600,000,000 in US Treasuries in Alleged ‘Stealth QE’ Operation After China Abruptly Dumps Billions in Bonds.”  Doesn’t look to me like they’re keeping their word that they no longer were in the bond buying business…  I find this to be shameful on their part, and something the major media should be calling their out for…  We all know why they are doing this, right? Well, they are attempting to keep yields in check, so they don’t go any higher, and thus increasing their bond servicing costs (interest costs)… Remember, the 10-year Treasury’s yield is used to price mortgages, and just bout everything else that has an interest rate… 

I found this on the Daily HODL.com… “New numbers from the Treasury Department show China sold $18.9 billion in US bonds in March, while most other countries increased their holdings.

China now holds $765.4 billion in US Treasuries and is in third place behind the UK and Japan, which hold $779 billion and $1.13 trillion, respectively.”

Chuck again… China used to be numero uno in the bond holdings department, but have lightened their load in recent times, thus showing the U.S. that if the U..S. Continues to treat them as  a 2^nd class country, then they’ll show us who’s 2nd Class! 

The most recent 20-year auction went off horribly for the Treasury Dept. Revealing the absence of China at the auction window… This is getting serious folks… I don’t want to think about what happens if an auction fails… 

So… Do you want to know why the dollar was treated like a red headed stepchild late last week?  Remember when I told you last week that we had plenty of Fed Head speakers hitting the speaker circuit? Well, some of them talked about how on again, off again, tariffs are making it difficult to make policy decisions… and then I found this last Friday… “President Donald Trump’s latest whipsaw tariff threats – including a 50% hike on European Union goods and demands that Apple and Samsung manufacture phones in the United States – have not only complicated global trade but are likely to delay interest rate cuts.

That’s according to Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee, who said May 23 that Trump’s latest tariff threats have complicated policy and likely put off changes to interest rates.”

Chuck again… excuses, didn’t win a ball game for anybody… That’s what the old football coach used to tell us over and over again back in the day…  And excuses won’t help the Fed Heads when the country begins to circle the bowl… I’m just saying… 

Boy, I’m wound up this morning, need to settle down…  you know, bond yields are rising all over the globe, not just here in the U.S. Shoot Rudy, even Japanese Gov’t Bond yields are rising!  Bonds are getting sold because the respective country’s citizens are becoming leery of their country’s fiscal policy, and debt situation…  Gold shines while bonds get sold…  I think the Gold investors are seeing this scenario the correct way.. Even if the short paper traders are always at the door… They see Gold for what it is, a store of wealth, and a hedge against inflation, and each country’s feeble currency…  I’m just saying… 

Speaking of currencies… The top performer this morning is the Chinese renminbi… Go figure! The euro was sniffing around the 1.14 handle last night, but since then with the dollar rebounding miraculously, the euro dropped further back… Sort of like the old British way of having a war… Fire and fall back!    Only the Brits didn’t have to deal with intervention…   

The U.S. Data Cupboard is sure to be better stocked with economic prints this week than it was last week! And we start the week with a print of the April Durable Goods Orders, which in my opinion, will be very disappointing… We’ll also see the color of the latest STUPID consumer Confidence for April… The stock market hasn’t been roaring lastly so this data should be unchanged… 

To recap… The dollar is getting sold, for two reasons… bad and disappointing bond auctions, scaring the buyers away… And 2. The on-off again tariffs situation is really making buying the dollar a difficult thig to do right now…  And then add that to all the economic data printing bad lately, and the Big Beautiful Bill adding more debt, faster and without a care…. I could go on here, but that’s enough on the dollar plate to have to choke down each trading day… 

For What It’s Worth… This article features Ron Paul… I always jump at that chance to print what he’s saying, and in this case he’s  sounding like Chuck and Chuck’s Debt Solutions from year ago, and Mr. Paul can be found here: https://dailyreckoning.com/ron-paul-slash-military-spending-and-end-the-fed/

Or, here’s your snippet: “the “big beautiful bill.” The bill also has new tax cuts including repealing federal taxes on tips and overtime. The bill “offsets” the “lost” revenue from the cuts by making some cost saving reforms in domestic welfare programs, most notably Medicaid and food stamps. However, it increases spending in other areas, most notably military spending.

According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the “big beautiful bill” would increase the national debt by at least 3.3 trillion dollars over ten years. This number is likely to rise because several moderate Republicans are threatening to vote against the bill unless the Medicaid and food stamps “reforms” are limited or dropped.

The reason Republicans are finding it difficult to offset their tax plan in a way that is politically palatable is that they are following exactly the opposite of the politically smart path to cut spending. Instead of starting by cutting welfare for the poor, Republicans should have started by cutting welfare for the rich, particularly the military-industrial complex.

The debt that caused Moody’s and other credit rating agencies to lower the US government’s credit rating is because of spending, not tax cuts. Congress should be giving the people more tax cuts and offsetting them with deep cuts in military spending.

Cutting spending wasted on a futile pursuit of a global empire is not just a fiscal necessity. It is also the best thing Congress can do to promote peace and prosperity. Congress should then begin phasing out welfare programs in a manner that does not harm those currently reliant on the programs.

Congress should also rein in the welfare-warfare state’s great enabler by auditing then ending the Federal Reserve. It should also repeal the 16th Amendment. These actions would free the people from 1913’s great mistakes — fiat money and income taxes.”

Chuck again… yes, 1913, should be repealed immediately, if not sooner! There were 3 things that make 1913 on of the worst years for legislation… 1. The fed was shoved down our throats, 2. The IRS was established, and 3 Senators were no longer assigned by each respective state’s Gov. Thus no longer representing the needs of each state…  A little history for you there, that I’ve gone through before in the Pfennig, but thought it best to repeat it here…

Market Price 5/27/2025: American Style: A$ .644r9, kiwi .5958, C$ .7263, euro 1.1351, sterling 1.3881, Swiss $1.2096, European Style: rand 17.8935, krone 10.1335, SEK 9.5157, forint 356.11, zloty 3.7923, koruna 21.9377, RUB 80.08, yen 144.14, sing 1.2877, HKD 7.8382, INR 85.31, China 7.1932, peso 19.39, BRL 5.6690, BBDXY 1,114, Dollar Index 99.39, Oil $61.34, 10-year 4.46%, Silver $32,90, Platinum $1,078.00, Palladium $979.00, Copper $4.75, and Gold… $3,292.15

That’s it for today… Well, yesterday was Memorial Day… I hope you all took a moment of your day, and had a moment of silence and thought about the soldiers that lost their lives protecting our freedoms… Last Friday, was grandson Braden’s Birthday… He’s 14!  Man, they sure grow up quickly! We’ll celebrate his birthday this coming Saturday, last weekend was yucky… I told someone the other day that this has been the coldest, rainiest, spring weather I can ever recall… And I wondered how the high school baseball teams every got their schedule of games in with all the rain.  Getting back to Braden… 14… When I was 14 I was in high school, he’s be heading there next year… Emerson Lake & Palmer take us to the finish line today with their song: Still… You Turn Me On… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Youself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals rally on Tuesday
• Ray Dalio stops by the Pfennig today!

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, my doctor appt yesterday, my semi-annual well check, was spent mostly talking about my last trip to the hospital and my diagnosis there…  But in the end, the doc said I’m doing well, considering, and that I should keep my slow rehab going…  He was very surprised when he walked into the room, and said, “Nurse, have I got the wrong room? This isn’t Chuck Butler”… He then talked and talked about my weight loss, and at the end of the discussion, he said, “Don’t lose any more, you’ve lost enough” I laughed and said, “but I’m still overweight according to the weight chart folks.” He replied, ” forget them!”… A Very interesting doctor’s visit, indeed!  The Guess Who greets me this morning with their great 60’s song: These Eyes…  

Well, I have two days of catch up to do here this morning, so I’ll start with Monday’s dollar performance, which was not good, and the BBDXY lost 5 index points on the day. This was a reaction to the U.S. losing its last AAA rating from Moody’s…  Yesterday, the dollar continued to get sold, but at a slower pace, with the BBDXY losing 2 index points to end the day at 1,222… I’m surprised at the watered-down dollar selling that’s going on right now, after a week (last) where economic data was awful at best, and again, the U.S. lost its last AAA rating…  

Gold rallied on Monday, but the rally was cooled down by the short paper traders… Here’s what I’m talking about, Gold reached a price that was $30 higher than the closing price of $3,230… Up $29 on the day… You may recall me saying on Monday that we needed to keep an eye out for the short paper traders, for they would be attempting to keep Gold from going to the moon…   OK, $30 more is not “to the moon”, but you get the gist of what I’m saying… 

Silver gained just a plug nickel on Monday… Yes, Silver was higher by 26-cents, until it wasn’t… The short paper traders made sure of that!  Silver gained another 5-cents yesterday, to close at $32.50… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $62 handle Monday and Tuesday, so no movement there… And the 10-year Treasury bond, has seen some volatility in the past two days, with Monday seeing some buying, and Tuesday back to selling. In the end yesterday, the 10-year closed trading with a 4.49% yield… Who was doing the buying on Monday? Well, no other than the Fed Heads.. Wait, What? I thought they were “out of the bond buying business?”  Well, apparently not… Here was the article headline on MarketWatch.com: “Why Is the Ded Quietly billions of bonds, in hopes that nobody notices?”

In the article it was opined by someone that what the Fed Heads are doing is simply buying new bonds with the proceeds of maturing bonds that they hold…  But… Bond buying, is bond buying, because if the Fed Heads buy the bonds, then they aren’t for sale for anyone else…  I’m just saying…   

So, all this time, I’ve been accusing the Fed Heads of buying bonds stealth-like, and I was bang on!   

In the overnight markets last night…. Well, the dollar got sold down the river… The BBDXY is down 4 index points to start our day today, and the old Dollar Index has fallen below 100…  The euro is back above the 1.13 handle, and the rest of the currencies are following the euro’s lead this morning. I actually was smiling like the Chesshire Cat when recording the currencies for the currency round-up this morning. Gold is up $20 to start the day today, and silver is up 9-cents… Gold has steadily risen without major gains since the ratings announcement last Friday.  The price of Oil remains trading with a $62 handle, and the 10-year Treasury continues to see its yield rise, with the yield on the bond at 4.54% this morning. 

I came across this quote from Ray Dalio, of whom I truly respect his opinion on the markets and economy, and he had this to say about the ratings cur on CNBC.com : “Bridgewater Associates founder and billionaire Ray Dalio warned Monday that Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating understates the threat to U.S. Treasurys, saying the credit agency isn’t taking into account the risk of the federal government simply printing money to pay its debt.

“You should know that credit ratings understate credit risks because they only rate the risk of the government not paying its debt,” Dalio said in a post on social media platform X.

“They don’t include the greater risk that the countries in debt will print money to pay their debts thus causing holders of the bonds to suffer losses from the decreased value of the money they’re getting (rather than from the decreased quantity of money they’re getting),” the Bridgewater founder said.”

Chuck again…  Yes, I think that this ratings cut goes deeper in hurting the economy and fiscal status of the U.S. than the markets are treating it.  And the next 20-year Treasury auction will be “must-see TV”, as it will be the first auction to take place since the U.S’s credit rating was cut to Aa1…   And even if the auction goes off without a hitch, the water from this rating cut goes deeper than the markets are treating it, in my humble country boy opinion.. 

And since I’ve opined there, I might as well, keep going with what’s on my mind this morning, right?  Longtime readers will recall me saying that Japan is a basket case and that I wouldn’t touch the yen with your ten-foot pole… And here something on Japan that keeps that thought of mine fresh… Last week it was reported that Japan’s GDP for the March quarter contracted by 0.7 per cent as against the median market forecast of 0.2 per cent… And to top that off the Japanese PM came out and said that Japan’s financial condition was in worse shape than Greece’s… WOW!  That’s a very low bar to compare yourself to , and then to say you’re below that low bar?  I rest my case that Japan is a basket case… 

And one more thing that proves what I’m saying to be true, The recent auction of Japanese Gov’t Bonds was a complete mess, with yields rising again… The 40-year Japanese Gov’t bond has gained 100 Basis points since April 30th… Can you believe a Japanese Gov’t Bond yields 3.60%?   Well, I can’t help but think that this is just a harbinger for the U.S. 20-year Treasury auction that’s coming up… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard didn’t have anything but 4 Fed Heads speakers out on circuit, spreading their lies as usual… Today, we get 2 more speakers out spreading lies about how the economy is so resilient..  Oh, did you see the other day, that Leading Indicators were a negative -1.0% This data has printed negativefi for so long now that I just figure it will print negative when I see it listed on the docket…  There’s not much in the Data Cupboard today, just w Fed Head speakers, so the dollar gets a break from all the awful data prints that have come into our view in recent days…. 

To recap… Well, the dollar has been getting sold since it was announced last Friday that the U.S. had lost its last AAA Rating… The dollar selling at first was heavy, but since then has backed off and was at a slower pace… Gold had taken the ratings news to heart, and a return of the safe haven buyers have been prevalent… And it’s proof that the Fed Heads are buying bonds again…  Without any flashing signs that they are doing so…   

For What It’s Worth… This article is about what a Deutsche Bank economist is scared of with the dollar going forward, and it can be found here: Dollar ‘Fiscal Frown’ Theory Has Deutsche Bank Warning of Losses – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “The dollar is at risk of losses whether the US government lands in a fiscal crisis or a recession, according to George Saravelos, Deutsche Bank’s global head of FX strategy.

“A dollar fiscal frown is the best way to picture things,” Saravelos wrote in a note on Monday, riffing off the so-called “dollar smile” framework Stephen Jen put forward more than two decades ago. Upcoming budget negotiations will determine where the dollar lands on that curve.

“At one extreme on the left is a fiscal stance that is too easy,” Saravelos wrote in a note on Monday. “This leads to a combined drop in US bonds and the dollar — as we are once again witnessing this morning.”

The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest since November 2023 on Monday, following Moody’s Ratings downgrade. Meanwhile, a dollar gauge fell as much as 0.7%, with the greenback weakening against all of its peers in the Group of 10. If this pattern continues, it signals the market is “losing its appetite to fund America’s deficits and rising financial stability risks,” Saravelos said.”

Chuck Again… And IF the market is losing its appetite to fund our Deficits, that will require the Fed Heads to buy more bonds than they are currently buying…  

Market Prices 5/21/2025: American Style: A$ .6448, kiwi .5943, C$ .7206, euro 1.1343, sterling 1.3443, Swiss $1.2135, European Style: rand 17.8899, krone 10.1587, SEK 9.5780, forint 354.73, zloty 3.7434, koruna 21.9306, RUB 80.00, yen 143.60, sing 1.2890, HKD 7.8301, INR 86.64, China 7.2040, peso 19.24, BRL 5.6680, BBDXY 1,218, Dollar Index 99.58, Oil $62.57, 10-year 4.54%, Silver $ 33.14, Platinum $ 1,055..00, Palladium $1,016.00, Copper $4.66, and Gold… $3,310.

That’s it for today, and this week, as there will be no Pfennig tomorrow.. I will be in the infusion center at the hospital, a very depression room I must say, for my monthly infusion… Hey! My cataract surgery finally got scheduled, and it will be Monday June 9th… Kathy leaves for Florida the next day, so I’ll have to get one of my retired friends to take me to the eye doctor the next day…  My beloved Cardinals won Monday night and lost last night, in a hard-fought game that was tied going into the 9th… UGH! The rubber game of the series with the Tigers is a day game today at Busch! I recall when I would not miss any midday games at Busch!   Oh, well, que sera sera….  Little Feat takes us to the finish line today with a live version of their hit song: Dixie Chicken… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and PLEASE Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals rally in the overnight markets last night
• Saving in the U.S. hits a low…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! WELL, FINALLY!  Finally, we had a beautiful weekend here in the Midwest. That weather came after a tornado ripped through the center/north of St. Louis, there was a ton of damage to properties, and loss of life for 5. Kentucky got the worst of it, so my thoughts were with all the folks that had a horrible tornado experience. My beloved Cardinals will come home after going 7-2 on their most recent road trip… That’s a good record for road games, better than their 1-10 they started the season with on the roqd! OK, so no Pfennig tomorrow and Thrusday, this week. Dr appts, and my next scheduled infusion will be my fun for the week. Chicago greets me this morning with their song: Saturday In The Park… 

Well, the dollar drifted again on Friday last week, with the BBDXY losing 2 index points on the day… The selling was very uneven, and even the announcement by Moody’s rating agency that the U.S.’s credit rating had been reduced from AAA didn’t really set off dollar selling… I’m lost and confused as to what the dollar bears are waiting for… The U.S. just lost its last AAA rating, the economic data last week was awful at best, and to top it off Consumer Sentiment fell again in April… Could it be that the dollar bears are scared to take the dollar down because of the threat of the PPI intervening to stop their selling?  Could be… Only The Shadow Knows… 

Gold didn’t find the data too awful for the U.S. as it was sold again… I say that in jest, because the majority of the selling was by the short paper traders. Gold lost $38 to close the week at $3,201. Silver lost 36-cents on the day to close the week at $32.26…  I have a very interesting piece for you in the FWIW section today from Matthew Piepenburg, regarding Gold, that I think you’ll want to allocate the time to read it… That is, IF you are interested in Gold… I can’t imagine too many readers of this letter that are not long Gold… I’m just saying… 

And I need to get this out here… On Thursday last week I had a fat finger mistake/ typo once again… I reported Silver’s price at $92, when it should have been $32 and change…  You know, I long agon at EverBank, I had to have the letter proofread before it got sent out… But that lead to so many arguments with me and the proofreaders about how I said something, that I was so happy when the Aden Sisters took over the publishing of the Pfennig, because the proofreaders were no more…  But then that leads to typos like last Thursday… Again though, I doubt anyone that read that price went out an tried to sell Silver at $92!!!!!   I’m just saying…   

The price of Oil bumped higher on Friday, to end the week trading with a $62 handle…  And the lowering of the US.s credit rating didn’t faze bond buyers, unless it was the Fed Heads doing the buying of bonds… The 10-year Treasury bond ended the week trading with a 4.48% yield…  The 10-year had gone over 4.50% during the day on Friday, only to lose a few BPS late in the day. 

In the overnight markets last night….The dollar is finding out what life is like without a AAA rating. This morning, as the BBDXY has lost 5 index points to start the day, week, and sits at 1,222 this morning.  I can’t begin to tell you , well, then I guess I can after all! The dollar is long due or some bad treatment, or a trip to the woodshed, if you will. Let’s see how far this dollar selling runs this time before the PPT comes in an wraps a tourniquet around the bleeding… 

Gold has a strong bid this mroning, and is up $40 to start the day/ week this morning… Makes sense doesn’t it that Gold would rally after the U.S. loses its last AAA rating?  Right?  Well, you never know for sure, if the short paper traders will see to it that Gold doesn’t get started going higher, or not… Apparently, not today, and that’s a good thing, but you can be assured that the short paper traders will be in there keeping Gold from going to the moon today.  I’m just saying…

Silver is also on the rally tracks this morning and is up 40-cents to start the day/ week this morning…  The price of Oil has dropped below $62, and starte the week trading with a 61 handle.  we should keep an eye on the 10-year Treasury bond this week, folks, because its yield should be heading much higher, as investors sell the bond, because it no longer has a AAA rating.  The 10-year’s yield starts the week at 4.54%… 

Well, at least someone at the European Central Bank (ECB) agrees with me regarding further ECB rate cuts… This from Yahoo Finance: “The European Central Bank should stop cutting borrowing costs as turmoil in the global economy is fueling price pressures and inflation was at risk of exceeding the bank’s 2% target in the medium term, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said on Friday.”

Chuck again… Now Schnabel now needs to sway a few more board members to his way of thinking… Because I think the threat of additional rate cuts from the ECB is what’s keeping the euro from taking off to higher ground, while the dollar drifts… 

I found this on www.moneymetals.com regarding consumers saving… “During last month’s tariff war, a big driver of stock-market declines was foreigners selling.

Foreigners have stockpiled over $60 trillion in US assets — much of it in stocks. Which puts America at the mercy of those foreigners whenever foreigners get nervous.

Part of this is terrible trade deals, but the biggest driver is that Americans stopped saving money, instead spending their way into debt slavery.

According to the BEA, Americans currently save just 0.6% of gross national income. In the 90’s it was 7 and a half percent. In the 1960’s it was 12.6%.”

Chuck again… WOW! I knew that saving was going down, but to less than 1 percent? No Wonder Retail Sales in April were very disappointing! I’ll have the skinny on Retail Sales in the U.S. Data Cupboard section of the letter this morning…  This is very eye opening to me, folks… Because this country depends on “consumption”, which means people buying stuff, spending money… That creates taxes, and that’s what the country used to run on… But now Deficits outrun taxes, every year!   This from Bill Bonner last Friday, “The Congressional Budget Office’s baseline figures tells us that the Fed’s will collect $67 Trillion in revenues over the next ten years and the spend $89 Trillion, which would put our national debt at $58 Trillion..” – Bill Bonner

Of course, as longtime readers of this letter, you know that I truly feel that we, as a country, will never reach $58 Trillion debt, as our financial system will have collapsed previously…  Oh, Got Gold?

In the gist of “We live in interesting times”… Remember when I told you that Costco was now selling Gold bars? Well, the good folks at GATA sent me this: “Gold has become such a hot commodity that Costco is apparently limiting how much its members can buy.

The warehouse retailer began selling 24-karat gold bars to its members in 2023, with a limit of two bars per person.”

Chuck again… Oh, the humanity! What will these buyers of Gold do now? HEHEHEHEHEHE

And have you heard about how Singapore wants to start a Gold HUB and bourse in their tiny country?  This is very interesting and the Singaporeans must have already done all the due diligence regarding how to do this, what it entails, and etc. I find this very encouraging for Gold, given that the more you take away from the West in price of Gold the better…  I’m just saying…

Before we head to the Big Finish today, I have this thought from Jerome Powell that appeared on Reuters, “Fed Chair Powell: Cutting discretionary federal spending will not fix US debt problem”…  

Well, it may not fix the problem, but it sure would go a long way to correcting the deficit spending… He thinks the main debt problems lie with Medicare, Medicare, Social Security and the interest paid on the debt… Well, since I doubt anyone in America would go for cutting the fist 3 items, that leaves the interest paid on debt… So, isn’t that a catch 22? 

The U.S Data Cupboard last Thursday was what I called the lollapalooza of data days, and it didn’t disappoint…  April Retail Sales were just .1% growth… That’s what I would call disappointing, right?  Industrial Production was flat as a pancake (Head East)  at 0.0%, and Capacity Utilization fell to 77.7% from 78.8% in April… And the Empire State Manufacturing report was a negative -9.6%, and finally the Philly Fed report (manufacturing) was a negative -4%…  Now, I said above that the U.S. Data was awful last week I wasn’t making that up now was i? 

To recap… The dollar drifted lower on Friday last week, and ended the week at 1,229… Still too high in my opinion, and Chuck wonders what’s keeping the dollar bears from taking the dollar much lower. Gold saw some additional short paper trading on Friday along with Silver, and couldn’t take advantage of the U.S. losing its last AAA rating… Singapore wants to open its version of a Gold HUB…  And boy does Chuck have something for you in the FWIW section below today!

For What It’s Worth… This is special folks.. This is the transcript of a video that Matthew Piepenburg made last week where he talks about how people are comparing 2011 to 2025 for Gold, and he goes through his thoughts as to why that’s not kosher, and it can be found here: Has Gold Peaked in 2025? Why This Isn’t a Repeat of 2011  (spoiler alert, this is long, so grab another cup of Joe, and sit down to read) 

Or, here’s your snippet: “there’s a great deal of discussion understandable discussion of whether we’ve seen pete gold uh authors of the Elliot wave talked about a consolidation chart and that this makes sense that you know gold is reaching a period of all-time highs and will stay there and possibly retrace and he uses the example of 2011 and the technicals there,

I have nothing against technicals. I use them all the time in understanding markets. But when you’re looking at gold or comparing gold in 2025 to gold consolidation in 2011, you have to keep in mind that it’s a very, very different world in 2025 than it was in 2011. It’s also a very, very different gold market.

And the most obvious difference is in 2025, unlike 2011, you didn’t have treasury auctions basically failing. You didn’t have the rise of the BRICS coalition. You didn’t have gold as a tier one asset. You didn’t have central banks tripling their purchasing of gold, physical gold, post weaponization of the U.S. dollar.

You didn’t have this great movement of whales buying physical metals, and you didn’t have this great open distrust for the once sacred cow, the U.S. 10-year treasury. So to use technicals alone or Elliott waves alone isn’t certainly foolish, but it isn’t the entire story.

And it isn’t defending gold or defending your book to say that gold is going to behave differently in 2025 and going forward. than in 2011. And the simple reason is the world is very, very different today. The debt levels are much higher. The distrust for the US dollar is much higher.

The debasement of the dollar is much higher. Quantitative easing, one, two, three, four operation twists and unlimited QE is much more in our rear view mirror and much stronger than it was in 2011. So all of these forces that have been in place since 2011 have completely changed the landscape of just using technicals to understand the

rise in the gold price. The rise in the gold price is entirely correlated to the fall in fiat money purchasing power. And the fall in fiat purchasing money power is directly correlated to unsustainable debt levels that are now being monetized and will be monetized

through more mouse click to base money, whether it’s in dollars, euros, rubles, pesos, etc. So the future of gold is very simple and very different in 2025 because the destruction of paper money is far more acute today than it was in 2011. Again, nothing against using technicals and Elliott waves. They’re very helpful to me and others.

But when you’re looking at a monetary precious metal like gold, and you have to look at the macro backdrop, you have to look at the historical backdrop, you have to look beyond just technicals to understand the rise in the physical gold price today. Again, gold doesn’t move in a straight line,

but it’s in a secular direction north because fiat money is in a secular direction down.”

Chuck Again… Thank you Matthew for that explanation of why the technicals are not working here…  

Market Prices 5/19/2025: American Style: A$

That’s it for today… There won’t be a Pfennig on Tuesday and Thursday this week, due to Dr Appts and an infusion…  I warned you when I returned from the Jupiter Medical Center that I would have lots of doctor appointments coming, and I have! I don’t follow the St. Louis Battlehawks, UGL football team,  but my sons do, and they eked out a 1-point win yesterday. I tried to watch some of it, but its not real football in my eye…. And our STL City soccer team is really bad this year, they’ve gone 10 games without a win! They can’t score goals and when that happens, you lose…   UGH!  I didn’t renew my season tickets to their games for next year, and you can bet they’ll be a much better team!  The band, Missouri takes us to the finish line today with their great 70’s songL Movin’ On…  I hopd you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Gold sees more short paper trading on Wednesday…
• JPMorgan says Gold will go to $6,000

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, my beloved Cardinals failed at their attempt to extend their win streak to 10 games yesterday, but then came back in the 2nd game of the doubleheader to win 14-7… I know, I know that looks like a football game score, but the bats were humming in the 2nd game, and so now, the Cardinals are the first team in the NL to win a series in Philly this year, as they won 2 of 3 games in the city of brotherly love… I’m not a happy camper this morning, and we’ll get to that in a short time below, but first The Moody Blues greets me this morning with their song from their Seventh Sojourn Album  (one of my fave albums!): New Horizons… 

The dollar basically drifted at sea yesterday, but finally at the end of the day, booked a 1 index point gain in the BBDXY… The euro remained below the 1.12 handle as it seems to just biding its time before it goes higher VS the dollar.  And I must have put the Chuck mentions it jinx on the Chinese Renminbi, because it lost a bit of ground to the dollar yesterday… 

Gold, and this is what I’m not happy about, saw the short paper traders again yesterday, pulling their tricks to push Gold down $72, and watching it close at $3,178… And this time Silver got thrown in the mix of short paper trading losing 69-cents to close at $32.31…  You know, other than me, the good folks at GATA, and Ed Steer, no website or letter out there, talks about the metals getting shorted…Instead, they go with the old lines of “profit taking” and “a move from risk assets” and even “Gold has lost its luster”…  Well, I’ll just say that the short paper trading is real, and it should be outlawed… I’m just saying… 

And before I go on here…  These dirty dogs (SPT’s) are making Gold affordable again, and this is the time you’ll want to load up the pickup truck with Gold at the cheaper prices… Before it takes off for higher ground again… Again, I’m just saying…

The price of Oil lost a buck in trading yesterday and ended the day trading with a $62 handle… And the 10-year Treasury’s yield continued to rise yesterday ending the day trading with a 4.54% yield,,,   Bonds are usually slow movers and forward looking… So, what are the bond boys looking at in the future that is scaring the bejeebers out of them? Well, I would think that it has something to do with what I talked about yesterday, regarding the hyped-up euphoria in the stocks that a trade war was averted… For 90-days that is, and then who knows what will become of trade with China? Only the Shadow Knows…  But the Bond boys are taking a flyer on the thought that the POTUS will ratchet up the tariffs once again by then, and then who knows what goes on then?

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar drifted some more and ended up starting today down 2 indez points in the BBDXY.. I don’t think the dollar bugs know what to do with the dollar, as it flew out of the starter’s gate on Monday, and hasn’t seen a good bid since… I think the PPT believes that their work is done, that they have gotten the message across to the dollar bears that if they think they’re going to run the dollar down, they’ll have to deal with the PPT..   

Gold was basically flat to start the day today and then buyers showed up and Gold is up $17 in the early trading…  Silver is getting sold to start the day today, but it’s only down 17-cents at this point, so that could be turned around easily…  I’m of the opinion that these cheaper levels to endter either Gold or Silver or both, are bargain basement prices, a blue light special if you will, and buyers should be taking full advantage of this situation… 

The price of Oil has slipped another buck overnight and trades this morning with a $61 handle… And I know I sound like a broken record, but bond yields keep rising, with the 10-year’s yield at 4.51% to start our day today…   

Circling the wagons, and coming back to Gold… I came across this and thought, well I’ll save my though on this for the end, but first this can be found on mining.com “JPMorgan reinforced its bullish case for gold by forecasting prices to rise to $6,000 per ounce by the end of U.S. President Donald Trump’s current term in 2029, an 80% increase on current levels.

This scenario, according to its analysts, could realistically occur with just a small allocation away from U.S. assets under the current macroeconomic climate.

Even with 0.5% of foreign-held U.S. assets reallocated to gold, that would result in 18% annual returns and eventually send prices to $6,000, the bank wrote in a note on Wednesday.”

Chuck again… You know I’ve seen Gold forecasted to reach $6,000, 10,000, 16,000 and so on, and to all of those I just one thing to say… Gold will reach those levels, when it is allowed to by the short paper traders…  end of discussion… 

There was an article on MarketWatch earlier this week that featured, a Fed Head, Williams, saying that “There are early signs consumers are starting to pull back on spending”  Stephanie Pomboy alluded to this in her article that was the FWIW article yesterday, saying that consumer debt was exploding higher and that will reduce the spending that consumers can do other than paying on debt…  

You know what happens to a country that is dependent on consumer spending/ consumption and that spending goes away? The country loses economic growth…  Uh-Oh!  Those darn zero interest times come back to bite us in the rear!  

The U.S. Data Cupboard today is the lollapalooza of Data days… In other words, there’s a plethora of data prints today… We start the day with April Retail Sales and even with the Easter holiday sales in the early part of April, the BHI indicates to me that this report will be disappointing at best… Moving along, we then will see the color of April PPI (wholesale inflation)… Next up we’ll see April reports for Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, both of which won’t be painting any pretty pictures for the economy… Finally we will see the Empire State report on Manufacturing, which should be not very good… 

All-in-all, the economic data today should tell us that the U.S. economy is not as strong as the leaders would tell you it is… 

To recap… The dollar drifted yesterday but finally ended up 1 index point in the BBDXY. So, no relief for the currencies, and Chuck thinks he put the jinx on the Chinese renminbi…  Gold saw more short paper trading yesterday, as the SPT’s got Gold down $72 on the day… This time Silver didn’t escape unscathed, and lost 69-cents… The bond boys are pushing bond yields higher and Chuck goes through that scenario…  And JPMorgan says Gold will be $6,000 by the current POTUS end of term… And it’s a BIG data prints day…

For What It’s Worth…  Well, I became sick to my stomach while writing this morning, and it reminded me of the old days when I would get sick to my stomach while writing at my desk… Any way that’s why the letter is a little later this morning… This article comes to us from Bloomberg.com and it’s about how the POTIS wants a cheaper currency (dollar) and you can find it here: Dollar Falls as US-Korea Talks Fuel Bets Trump Favors Weaker Currency (USD) – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: ” The dollar fell in late Asia trading on fresh speculation President Donald Trump favors a weaker greenback and will prod other governments to let their currencies rise in return for trade deals with the US.

The US currency extended an earlier decline on Wednesday after a Bloomberg News report that South Korea and US officials discussed exchange rate policies at a May 5 meeting in Milan and will continue to do so.

The won rose and the Japanese yen also climbed, helping to push the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down for a second day after it rallied on Monday following the announcement of a temporary truce in the US-China trade war. It erased its losses by early afternoon in New York.

Trump and other administration officials have long argued weakness in Asian currencies versus the dollar hand an unfair advantage to the region’s exporters over US rivals, prompting markets to bet foreign governments will need to allow or even encourage strength in their exchange rates if they are to prove successful when trade talks kick off with the US.”

Chuck again…  Well, nothing has changed here, President Trump desired a weaker dollar in his first term along with rate cuts and he didn’t get them… I’m just saying… 

Market Pirces 5/15/2025: American Style: A$ .6407, kiwi .5879, C$ .7165, euro 1.1196, sterling 1.3388, Swiss $1.1930, European Style: rand 18.1187, krone 10.4134, SEK 9.7366, forint 360.29, zloty 3.7866, koruna 22.2640, RUB 80.56, yen 146.94, sing 1.2986, HKD 7.8076, INR 85.75, China 7.2095, peso 19.36, BRL 5.6379, BBDXY 1.229, Dollar Index 100.82, Oil $61.02, 10-year 4.51%. Silver $92.17, Platinum $ 987.00, Palladium $969.00, Copper $5.63, and Gold… $3,192.70

That’s it for today…  I was out for my short distance walk yesterday, and crossed some grass, and almost fell on my face, as I tripped and stumbled on a tree root. It was a good thing my friend/ neighbor, was there to catch me and keep me upright! Whew! That was a close one! Thank you for being there Mr. B!  I actually thought the City STL soccer teams was going to win a game last night, as they were up 2-0 at the half time… But it was not to be, and they tied 2-2 with KC… UGH! This team will probably set the record for the number of ties in a season this year!  I haven’t been to a game this year, as last night was supposed to be my first game of the season, but after realizing that I wouldn’t be able to walk the distances needed to get to the stadium and in the stadium, I gave the tickets to my son, Alex… Donnie Iris takes us to the finish line today with his 80’s song: Ahh Leah!  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please continue to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rally on Tuesday, after the Armageddon on Monday
• The Stupid CPI says that inflation is falling… wait, what?

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, I’ve had two days of doctors and scans and both days had good news… The Pulmonaty Dr. said my lungs were clear, but they would take some time to heal fully… And the scan showed no new cancer… So, I came home yesterday and treated myself to a cookie! Not just an ordinary cookie, but a cake cookie with icing! Bill Withers & Grover Washington Jr. greet me this morning with their song: Just The Two Of Us…

Well, judging from how the markets reacted to the news that a trade agreement with China was the result of the Trump / Xi meeting… I for one didn’t get the euphoria that the markets did, because this is only a 90-day agreement… So, I have one question for the POTUS… If China was ripping us off so badly, why would we give them 90-days to figure out how to rip us off badly in the future?  Inquiring minds want to know! 

So, on Monday this week, the dollar took a leap of faith that the trade news was in concrete, and the BBDXY gained 13 index points to close at 1,240… And The currencies were like battleships in the Pacific sector of WWII… Sunk!  

But the biggest loser on the trading floor on Monday was Gold, which at one point in the day, was down $104, but rallied at the end of the day to close down $86 at $3,236…  Here’s Ed Steer’s take on the Gold trading on Monday… “Using every dirty and illegal trick they had in their arsenal, the collusive commercial trades of whatever stripe went after gold with a vengeance yesterday in the most illiquid time of the market…helped along by that dollar index short covering rally that they instigated at the London open. – Ed Steer at www.edsteergoldsilver.com

Silver fared much, much better than Gold and only lost 10-cents on Monday to close at $32.68… I guess the short paper traders figured that they had taken Silver down enough for now, and shifted their attention to Gold…  

Stock jockeys were jumping up and down and dancing in the street on Monday… And the price of Oil rallied to a $62 handle… All was seashells and balloons for the markets, no? Wait! There was on market that didn’t fall for the jargon that everyone else did, and the bond boys saw to it that bond yields were lifted on the day, which indicates selling, and the 10-year’s yield ended the day on Monday at 4.38%… 

So, longtime readers know my affection for the work/ writing of Stephanie Pomboy, of Macro Mavens, and I have her latest interview in the RWIW section today, in which she tell us to not be fooled by the markets reaction to the trade news… You won’t want to have missed that FWIS article today… So, stay tuned… Same Bat time, Same Bat channel…

Yesterday, the calm returned to the market somewhat… The dollar lost 9 index points to close at 1,231… The currencies tried to rally, but were down in a hole so deep you couldn’t really tell that they had rallied much… 

The price of Gold rallied yesterday $24 and closed at $3,250… With the price of Gold so cheap compared to where it was last week, I would think that Gold takes off for the next psychological level from here… There has to be tons of potential buyers that were on the sidelines waiting for a drop in the price of Gold… Silver has outperformed Gold the last two days, gained $31=cents to close at $33…  

The price of Oil gained more and traded yesterday at the end of the day with a $63 handle.  And the 10-year’s yield continued to rise yesterday. Ending the day with a 4.47% yield… Just last week the 10-year’s yield was 4.30%… So, there’s been a ton of selling in the last 5 days folks, most of it since the close on Friday… 

In the overnight markets last night…  the dollar got sold overnight and the BBDXY starts today down 4 index points at 1,227… The dollar selling ties back to the false flag Stupid CPI… The dollar bugs figure that if inflation is under control, then it will make cutting rates a lay-up for the Fed Heads…  And with lower rates comes a weaker dollar…  So, all the dollar buying on Monday is being reversed out…  As it should be… But then that’s just me, right?  

The price of Oil remained trading in the $63 handle overnight, and the 10-year is champing at the bit to move higher this morning… 

The euro got hammered while the dollar was basking in the sun… But as I said a week or so ago, I think the European Union (EU) and their leaders are going to go through a restructure of their political makeup and that should bring about a rally for the euro… So, this hammering that the euro took on Monday, will only give those smart enough to figure this all out much cheaper prices to enter the euro / dollar market. Maybe I was too “pro euro” there, but why not?  And I’m not the only person that thinks the euro is ready to rally some more… Here’s a snippet I found on Bloomberg.com this morning: 

“For more than a decade, the flow of transatlantic capital moved in one direction, powering the ascent of an unstoppable dollar and leaving the euro far behind. Now, the biggest investors say the tide may be turning.

With the euro charting a course for its best year in two decades and asset managers like Amundi SA flipping from bear to bull, Europe’s currency is undergoing a resurgence that’s rarely been seen at any point since its creation in 1999.

Even as uncertainties continue over the US president’s trade war, investors like Amundi’s Andreas Koenig, say the forces set in motion during the turbulent weeks of early April can’t be easily undone. The euro climbed as high as $1.15 last month, its strongest level since late 2021.

“This is a structural change, and it can go a lot longer and a lot further than we imagine at the moment,” Koenig said.”

Chuck again… As Gandalf the White said, “When something is “in motion,” it’s physically moving or changing its position over time. This could be a ball rolling, a car driving, or even the Earth orbiting the sun. “

And in my opinion and that of a few others, the EU is in motion, and it will bring the euro along for the ride… I’m just saying… 

And talk about the dollar rallying on Monday, the Chinese renminbi really was putting on the ritz too… The Chinese have allowed their currency to rally to 7.20 to the dollar… That’s quite a move, eh? 

The newswires are chock-ful-o-trade talk this morning, and therefore I don’t have a lot of Pfennig Pfodder… But before I head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to talk about Gold a little more… Monday’s price action was so clear to me that it was the short paper traders, using every dirty trick they’ve learned through the year to perform an engineered takedown of Gold… The SPT’s took Tuesday off but are back at it this morning… You have to wonder at what price will they say, “no mas”?  By the way, SPT’s are the Short Paper Traders in case you didn’t figure that one out…    

The U.S. Data Cupboard had the Stupid CPI for April … The BLS reported that the consumer inflation rate had gained only .2% in April and that the annual rate of inflation was 2.3%… Wait! What? Do they take us for fools? We all know that they take their basket of goods, and compare the prices month to month, but… Then they add their hedonic adjustments to their calculation and voila! You get a false reading for inflation, just like we get a false reading for Jobs each month after the BLS gets their hands in the cookie jar… 

This rate of inflation supposedly was the lowest rate of inflation since 2021…  That is if you believe that garbage that the BLS prints… And I don’t! But… The markets do… Everybody Plays The Fool… John Williams at www.shadowstats.com , probably has inflation where it really is, which is about 10+%…  

And the Core CPI number was 2.8% annualized… Core CPI removed Food and energy from the calculation, which I find to be stupid…   And the rise in the price of Oil won’t be reflected until the May Stupid CPI prints… 

The Data Cupboard is empty today, with only 3 Fed Heads out on the speaker circuit… 

To recap… Well, the short paper traders used all the tricks in the book starting Sunday night into Monday morning and then throughout Monday to break the back of Gold… They pointed to the news that the U.S. and China had reached a trade agreement… Chuck says, it’s not in concrete, and it’s only for 90-days… But the markets took the bait, hook, line and sinker… The bond boys didn’t take the bait, and bond yields are rising once again… For they see that the Fed Heads will see the Trade Agreement for what it is, and not be tricked into cutting rates…  And Stephanie Pomboy visits us here in the Pfennig this morning! 

For What It’s Worth… Well, I advertised this article above and hope it delivers what I read to you! This article is Stephanie Pomboy talking about the euphoria in the markets, and it can be found here: Debt wall, consumer strain, and a Fed ‘trapped by politics’: Stephanie Pomboy warns of market reckoning | Kitco News

Or, here is your snippet: “Markets may be celebrating a temporary U.S.-China trade truce, but macro strategist Stephanie Pomboy warns the party won’t last.

In an interview with Kitco News, Pomboy, founder of MacroMavens, cast doubt on the sustainability of the current market rally, citing structural imbalances across debt, credit, and consumption.

“This is just a 90-day ceasefire,” Pomboy said about the tariff reprieve. “To listen to the financial media, you’d think it was the final agreement – and it ain’t.”

While the Dow surged over 1,000 points on the news, Pomboy noted the more telling signal is the 10-year Treasury yield, which jumped to 4.49%. “That’s my number one macro indicator,” she told Kitco News. “Long rates have been stubbornly high – and that’s an issue for an economy as levered as ours.”

Pomboy noted a looming corporate debt wall, with over $1 trillion in bonds set to roll over in 2025. “Corporate debt service has doubled since the Fed started tightening in 2022,” she said. “There’s 1.2 trillion due next year, and another trillion after that.”

Meanwhile, foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries is waning. “If China has no reason to buy our debt anymore, we’ve got to come up with another buyer – fast,” she said. “I always come back to the Fed as the only obvious candidate to absorb all this issuance.”

Chuck again… Stephanie goes on to discuss the debt even more in the article, so if you have the time, click the link above and read away! 

Market Prices 5/14/2025: American Style:. A$ 6476, kiwi .5961,  C$ .7177, euro 1.1226, sterling 1.3391, Swiss $1.1960, European Style: rand 18.2232, krone 10.2957, SEK 9.6661, forint 360.45, zloty 3.7807, koruna 22.2070, RUB 80.26, yen 146.00, sing 1.2976, HKD 7.8044, INR 85.24, China 7.2050, peso 19.36, BRL 5.6079, BBDXY 1,227, Dollar Index 100.57, Oil $63.00, 10-year 4.47%, Silver $32.97, platinum $1,005.00, Palladium $981.00, Copper $4.70, and Gold… $3.227.80

That’s it for today… That was a good two days for yours truly, right? Now, I just need to get my lungs back to normal again… Time… Waits for no one and won’t wait for me! (Rolling Stones) My beloved Cardinals got rained out last night in their quest for a 10th consecutive win… They will play two today, which will make 3 doubleheaders in the last 10 days!  I don’t want to say anything else so as not to jinx them! So, I’ll be glued to the TV today for both games… And I’ll work in a short walk between games!  This going slow with my rehab is going to get on my nerves, but it’s what the doctors have stressed to me, so, que sera, sera… The Main Ingredient takes us to the finish line today with their hit song: Everybody Plays The Fool…  A very appropriate title for the markets that got sucked into the trade trap…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday, and that you will Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• FOMC leaves rates unchanged and makes the dollar bugs happy!
• The Bank of England cuts rates…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! I was feeling stronger yesterday, with my stomach problem all subsided, I decided I would go outside and take a walk.. But then I realized it was raining! UGH! You know what they say about the best laid plans of mine and men… Well, today is the last Pfennig until next Wednesday, so soak it in, and keep it safe in case you want to read it again!  The Neon Trees greet me this morning with their song: Everybody Talks… 

Well, the FOMC didn’t surprise anyone, as they left rates unchanged yesterday.  Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chairman, Jerome Powell, told the audience after the rate decision, that the question about the effects of the tariffs leading to higher inflation or even stagflation, were prevalent and was the main reason for keeping rates unchanged…  To me, his outlook for the U.S. economy wasn’t all seashells and Balloons, but the dollar bugs sure took it that way, and began buying dollars… And buy them by the bunches! The BBDXY gained 4 index points after the rate announcement… And finished the day at 1,2222… 

Gold saw a bit of profit taking after two consecutive days of + $90 gains… But the majority of the selling came from the short paper traders, and they took Gold down by $60 to close at $3,364… Silver didn’t fare any better or escape the short paper trading and it lost 76-cents to ciose at $32.41… I would have bet the farm that the short paper traders would enter the market after the FOMC left rates unchanged….  They would point to rates remining high (for this go-round that is) and the dollar bugs dancing in the street, for their reason to sell short… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $59 handle… I have to do my mea culpa here… Yesterday, in the currency roundup, my fat fingers skipped over the “5” and I reported an Oil price of $9… Thanks to my youngest sister who pointed that out to me… UGH!   The 10-year Treasury bond saw some buying, as the bond boys saw the Powell words like I did and the yield on the bond fell to 4.30%… 

In the overnight markets last night… The Bank of England (BOE) cut their internal rate 25 Basis Points this morning… This was the first time since last August that the BOE had reduced interest rates. The decision was influenced by concerns about the impact of potential US tariffs on UK exports and a generally weak economic outlook. But the debasing of the pound sterling didn’t hurt the currency much, and so we move along to other things this morning…

The dollar got bought yesterday, and that buying continued into the overnight markets with the BBDXY gaining 2 more index points, thus giving the BBDXY a total of 6 index points added since yesterday morning… Shoot Rudy, even the old Dollar Index rallied back to 100… The euro fell below .1.13, again… And the rest of the currencies have lost their perked-up values overnight…  Now, if I were king, I would have decreed that the dollar get sold, because of what Powell said about tariffs and Stagflation raising prices in the future… Looking ahead this is what the economy will face and with Consumers scratching and clawing to make ends met these days, higher prices is not what they need… 

Speaking of tariffs, I read yesterday that they are beginning to bite…  OH Boy~  i also read that the U.S. and China will begin negotiations in Switzerland this weekend… Hmmm… Away from all the naysayers and fist pumpers…  Something struck a chord with me here… Remember when I wrote in the Pfennig about how the Chinese set their parameters on the possibility of negotiations?  And then I read that the POTUS announced that he would lead the negotiations… I don’t think the Chinese will enjoy that part very much…  This meeting is not su much about tariffs but rather de-escalation… I’m sure the tariffs will be discussed though, so check your news station at least once on Sunday to see if anything, even a crumb of news is reported here… 

I won’t be writing on Monday to tell you what transpired… So, that is your homework assignment! HA! 

On a sidebar here, I came across this info that got my mind racing with ideas of how to present it… So, here goes: Weightwatchers is going on a diet!  Wait, What? Yes, Weightwatchers are no different from the masses of companies that have taken too much debt… Here’s the skinny: ” WeightWatchers files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to shed roughly $1B in debt from its balance sheet, expects to emerge from bankruptcy process in 45 days and remain a publicly traded company.”

You see, taking on too much debt is a bad thing, and the ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) that held fort here in the U.S. for a long, long time, tempted companies to take on more debt than they knew they shouldn’t have, but they did, because, well it was “so cheap”…  And even WeightWatchers can fall into this debt trap… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the usual fare for a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday, the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and it already printed… (I must be late, late for an important date!)  and the jobless claims for last week were 228,000… Still high in my opinion..  We also saw the 1^st QTR Productivity, and it was a negative 0.8%… I’ve told you previously that this data is useless to me, in that it just records how hard everyone is working… So, judging from the outcome, in the 1^st QTR we, as a country, didn’t work very much… I’m just saying…

To recap… The dollar began getting bought yesterday, after the rate announcement by the FOMC. They left rates unchanged and made some dreadful comments about the future for the economy, but the markets didn’t listen to that, and just rejoiced having rates remain high (for this period, that is) The Bank of England cut rates for the first time since last August… WeightWatchers are going on a Diet! And Chuck explains what ZIRP did to companies’ balance sheets… 

For What It’s Worth… I spent a lot of time talking about the Trade Deficit yesterday, and then this article came across my laptop and I thought that it did a good job of explaining what’s going on and it can be found here: Tariff-Frontrunning Sparks Record Trade Deficit In March | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record in March as companies rushed to import products as the Trump administration readied sweeping tariffs.

The goods and services trade gap grew 14% from the prior month to $140.5 billion (notably higher than the median estimate of a $137.2 billion deficit).

The value of imports jumped 4.4% to a record $419 billion, while exports edged up just 0.2% as firms scrambled to get ahead of President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs…

As a reminder, the figures aren’t adjusted for inflation.

Both Goods and Services deficits increased. Imports of consumer goods climbed by the most on record, while inbound shipments of capital equipment and motor vehicles also increased.

Oil & Gas exports topped import by a record in March while imports of Chemicals relative to exports exploded to a record high…

Imports from transshipment hubs surged, likely as some imports from China were diverted to third countries. Imports from Vietnam and Thailand rose well above the 75th percentile of their year-to-date pace.”

Chuck again… Well, this is just robbing from the future, in my opinion, but if a were a company I would seriously think about doing the same… 

Market Prices 5/8/2025: American Style: A$ .6418, kiwi .5928, C$. 7199, euro 1.1283, sterling 1.3316, Swiss $1.2108, European Style: rand 18.1767, krone 10.3534, SEK 9.6646, forint 358.21, zloty 3.7835, koruna 22.0947, RUB 82.62, yen 144.67, sing 1.2965, HKD 7.7711, INR 85.71, China 7.2380, peso 19.59, BRL 5. 7449, BBDXY 1,2225, Dollar Index 100.05, Oil $59.67, 10-year 4.30%, Silver $32.34, Platinum $971.00, Palladium $960.00, Copper $4.60, and Gold… $3,342.41

That’s it for today, until Wednesday next week…  My beloved Cardinals made it a 5-game win streak with their sweep of the Pirates yesterday. They got the game in before the rain… Now they head to D.C to paly the Nationals… Well, this Sunday is Mother’s Day… If you’re lucky to still have your mother around, make sure you give her a hug and tell her how important she is to you!  I miss my mom greatly, especially this time of year… She was my biggest fan… And I’ve had that void in my life since 1997… So, don’t blow it! Sunday is Mother’s Day!  Blood, Sweat & Tears take us to the finish line today with their great 60’s song: You’ve Made Me So Very Happy…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to day, and all you moms out there, I hope your Sunday is grand!  Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler