Author: admin

Is The Fix In Today?

June 14, 2023

* currencies & metals rally in the past 24 hours

* Inflation cools, but did it really? 

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Another ugly night at the ballpark for St. Louis Cardinals fans last night… Their games have gotten to the point that I havre no patience for them… And I’ve been a lifelong fan even during the 90’s when the team was this bad then…  Maybe they’ll find a silver lining soon, but they had better or else the fans will not show up for games… And that’s the best message that fans can give to the management of a team…. I made smashed burgers on my Blackstone griddle last night, yummy!  Day game today at Busch Stadium, and I’m going to the game with my son Andrew!  Maybe us going can bring home a winner…. Today is Flag Day!  Fly your Flags proudly!   The Scorpions greet me this morning with their rockin’ song: No One Like You
Well… The dollar was traded yesterday, and didn’t have much movement for the reason I gave the previous two days… The dollar did lose one index point in the BBDXY, no biggie… The euro was kept from reaching 1.08, but still remained within’ spittin’ distance of the 1.08 figure at the end of the day yesterday. So, today is the day, that eveyone has been waiting for, the FOMC announcement, which will come this afternoon… At that time we’ll find out whether the Fed Heads were truly in the fight to defeat inflation, or if they were just faking it…  
Gold saw a lot of engineering yesterday, and ended down $14.20, to close at $1,944.30, Silver too, saw engineering and watched it’s price lose 42-cents on the day, to close at $23.73… Here’s what I believe the short paper traders had in mind yesterday… I believe they know ahead of time that the Fed Heads are going to pause, and that news could trigger a huge buying spree in the metals, so they took them down yesterday, so that the beginning point is lower and Gold & Silver will have to work harder tomorrow just to get back to where they were a day ago…  That’s how I see it, and you can argue with me all day long if you want, but I’m not changing my mind on this, it’s how I see it happening… 
The price of Oil bumped higher by another buck in the past 24 hours, and ended the day trading with a $69 handle, while bonds got sold because at this point, I think everyone knows what the Fed Heads are going to do. The yield on the 10-year rose to 3.80% yesterday… 
In the overnight markets last night….  There was more dollar selling, with the euro finally climbing over the 1.08 figure, and the BBDXY losing 2 index points. This has to be more proof that the fix is in today… Why else would traders take positions ahead of the FOMC without knowing what the FOMC would have to say?  All the currencies have gained vs the dollar sans the Russian ruble…  Gold is up $3 to start today, and Silver is up 4-cents to start the day… This should be the Wild, Wild West in the markets today, so strap yourself in, and keep your arms and legs inside the vehicle at all times!  The price of Oil bumped higher again and has added $3 in the past 3 days this week, and trades this morning with a $70 handle… 
So, now we wait on the FOMC…  But I have to say that if this dollar selling continues throughout the morning ahead of the FOMC Announcement, you can be assured that the Fix was in, and everyone that is anyone was alerted ahead of time… I find that to be sneaky, and should be unlawful… But then that’s just me… 
A good friend of mine, Carl Moore, sent me a text yesterday from the Twitter account of Wall Street Silver…. Here’s what Janet Yellen is quoted to have said yesterday, “We Should expect Slow decline in dollar as Reserve Currency”… Now if Janet Yellen is saying that out loud, and admitting it, then things are really bad, don’t you think?  Thank you Carl, for sending that to me! 
Yesterday, I told you that the fix was in, on what the stupid CPI would print, and right there before my eye, the stupid CPI printed a .1% gain in inflation in May, with the year-on-year rate remaining at 4.0%… To all that I call B.S.! But it it what it is, and so the fix is in for the Fed Heads to point to how inflation seems to be under control, and that’ s the reason they will use to pause and not hike rates further… I shake my head in disgust here, because if I can see that this is what happened, the Big Boys should be able to see it too, because they all went to Ivy League schools and have MBA’s in economics and business!   Or… maybe they can’t find their rear-ends with both hands… I’m just saying… 

The good folks at GATA sent me this yesterday…. “North Carolina House Republicans want the state to use some of its savings to buy gold bullion and bury it in Texas.

A group of House Republicans filed a bill in mid-April that would have the state use $2 billion from its savings reserve to buy gold bullion.”

Chuck again… cool beans on that, if it passes, of course!  But $2 Billion in Gold buys would certainly offset the short paper traders shenanigans, for a while that is… 
long time friend, and associate in a former life, the publishing guru, and best selling author, Bill Bonner, was writing about how life was in the 50’s and 60’s yesterday, his whole article can be found here: American Values, Revisited – by Bill Bonner (substack.com)

I agree with him that the 60’s seemed like there was hope for many things…  Here’s an snippet of Bills’ letter: “Those heady, glory years were a time of great hope and faith. The federal government had won WWII and demonstrated the atomic bomb; it could do almost anything, even put a man on the moon. The best and brightest of America’s young people longed for ‘public service.’  

Today, we realize that the feds can do much less than we thought. They could put a man on the moon…but when they tried to stop communists in Vietnam, or drug dealers at home, they failed miserably. Nor could they boost the economy with their new, post-1971, gold-free money.”

I included this piece in today’s letter because I simply love Bill’s writings, and when he points out the things that I’ve talked about for years, it only gives me a huge charge!    Yes, many years ago in a Sunday Pfennig, I wrote about Chuck’s Debt Solutions, and talked about how the U.S. needed to stop all wars… Including the war on drugs, war on poverty, ware in the Middle East, etc. and close all our bases around the world, bring the military home to protect our border…  Those things won’t solve the debt problem, but they will make a huge dent in the deficit spending each year! 
Yes, those Sunday Pfennigs were something special, as they were written by a group of people including myself, Chris Gaffney, Mike Meyer, and Frank Trotter… In the end though, it seemed like every week, the marketing people would call me on the phone and tell me they needed me to write something for the coming Sunday…  I finally balked, and that was the end of the Sunday Pfennigs… 
OK, back to the markets… The rest of the world is still in their rate hike cycles, even the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has come back to the rate hike table after stepping away for a couple of months…  In the days of fundamentals this would all be a bad thing for the dollar, but in today’s world of trader sentitment ruling the trading, these things get put on the back burner… But will they this time too? My spider sense is tingling, and letting me know that this time when the Fed / Cabal/ Cartel hold rates steady, while the rest of the world is hiking them won’t be pretty for the dollar… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday, has the aforementioned stupid CPI… And today well see the May print of Producer Prices (wholesale inflation)  Tomorrow we’ll see the color of the May Retail Sales, which the BHI indicates to me that it will disappointing once again… 
To recap… The dollar barely moved yesterday for the reason Chuck talked about yesterday and Monday. Gold saw another engineered takedown ahead of the FOMC annoucnement, which leads Chuck to believe that the short paper traders were told ahead of time what the Fed Heads will do today, and they proceeded to get Gold a lower starting point… Dirty deeds, done dirt cheap! (AC/DC)   Janet Yellen admits that the dollar’s day as the Reserve Currency is numbered,  and Chuck talks about Sunday Pfennigs… You’ve gotta love when he reminces about his past like at EverBank… 
For What It’s Worth… Well, since yesterday was STUPID CPI Day, I thought a good discussion on how stupid the data is would be appropriate, and long time friend, Addison Wiggin, filled the bill… Addison doesn’t spend all day writing a letter like I have been known to do… his knowledge and aquaintances through the years, have given him a lef up on the rest of us lowly letter writers… So, this is Addison talking about inflation and it can be found here: The Daily Missive from The Wiggin Sessions

Or, here’s your snippet:” Addison starts his letter today, off with this quote: ““A nation that encourages its people to spend more and save less promotes economic backwardness, social decay and its own financial doom.”

– Kurt Richebacher

And now he begns to talk: “When the CPI numbers came out this morning, they showed inflation had slowed again to roughly 4% year-over-year. The data prompted even more pundits to forecast the Fed will announce a pause in interest rate hikes tomorrow.

I was pressed on a podcast last night from Melbourne about what I thought the Fed would do. I answered that it doesn’t really matter what I think because they’re going to do. It stands to reason, I can only share my opinion.
The Fed should raise another quarter point to show they’re resolute in fighting inflation, even if it’s only to get back to their arbitrary target of 2%. But more than that they should keep rates high for a long enough period to get people in the economy accustomed to the higher rates and adjust their own spending accordingly. Including, when they buy houses, pay tuition or invest in new businesses.

The Fed’s mandate is to protect the value of the dollar. Yet, the over/under on what the Fed is going to do seems to favor a pause.

The whole discussion put me in mind of working as publisher, editor and writing assistant to Dr. Kurt Richebacher, whom many readers will recognize. 

One thing he was insistent on doing was parsing the CPI numbers every time they were published. 

The reason, he was incensed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics use of “hedonic price indexing” which allows them to pick and choose which components go into the CPI. 

The term “hedonic” has Greek roots. It means “pleasure”. The components of the CPI are “hedonic” by trying to judge what the “pleasure” – or in economic terms “utility” the buyer obtains for the “quality of the attributes of a specific good.” 

Yeah, it’s confusing. But it’s what allows news headlines of 4% inflation to be printed. That 4% figure is the “core” price increase – conveniently, leaving out food and energy, whose prices are more volatile. Hedonic price indexing is used in both the U.S. and the U.K.

I’ve been parsing through Dr. Richebacher’s letters of late while doing research for a new project. 

I’ll have more to say on “hedonic” price indexing in future missives. But for now, I’ll share this tweet from Charlie Bilello, from from Creative Planning Investor in response to today’s numbers:

Even if the Fed pauses, these numbers will still matter to anyone who wants to buy gas, wear clothes, or eat food.
Chuck again…  yes sir, we the people will have to deal with them, like we always have… thank you Addison for our FWIW article today…  So, tell me again, with all these items up so high, how does the stupid CPI only print at 4%?  Oh, that’s right, I forgot, that once an item becomes to expensive that they follow, they remove it and replace it with somehting that’s not so expensive, that way they keep inflation down, artificially, of course, but at least you, me and all the other folks that come across the Pfennig, know the truth about the stupid CPI… 
Market Prices 6/14/2023: American Style: A$ .6793, kiwi .6175, C$ .7524, euro 1.0807, sterling 1.2648, Swiss $1.1007, European Style: rand 18.4543, krone 10.5784, SEK 10.6880, forint 343.38, zloty 4.1208, koruna 22.0235, RUB 84.07, yen 140.00, sing 1.3416, HKD 7.8311, INR 82.10, China 7.1576, peso 17.19, BRL 4.8834, BBDXY 1,230.00, Dollar Index 103.13, Oil $70.31, 10-year 3.83%, Silver $23.83, platinum $977.00, Palladium $1,365.00, Copper $3.82, and Gold… $1,947.31
That’s it for today… Well, I’ll be at Busch Stadium when the Fed Heads make their announcement today, and I won’t be checking my phone for updates either… I really don’t care what the Fed Heads do, because in the end they’ll make the wrong move…  I know I’ve told you this many times in the past, so foregive me if you’ve heard this before, but I love day baseballl games during the week… They’re called “get away days”. In the old days they would be called Businesssman’s Special, or “Ladies Day at the Park”… I don’t care what they call it now, just as long as there are at least a half-dozen of these middle of the week day games on the schedule… And with Andrew being a teacher, and have some time during the week, he suggested we go, and I jumped at the chance to go, especially with him!  Steeler’s Wheel take us to the finish line today with their song: Stuck In The Middle With You…  You know Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right, here I am stuck here in the middle with you, yeah, that song… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

Will They, Or Won’t They?

June 13, 2023

* currencies & metals rally in the overnight markets

* Bank of Canada gets a Gold star! 

Good day… And A Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Another close game, another loss for my redbirds… I just sit there watching and wondering when the blow up inning will occur… For once, in a blue Moon, the starting pitcher didn’t stink up the place, but the offense was nowhere to be found, especially with runners in scoring position. UGH! It’s going to be a long season, for me… Well, it’s waiting and watching time for the markets, as we grow nearer to the FOMC announcemnt tomorrow afternoon… Oil traders are defying Saudi Arabia, I wonder how that will work out for them? So, we have those things to talk about today, and other stuff that will get thrown in. Paul Mcartney, greets me this morning with his song: Every Night… 
Well, as I said yesterday, I didn’t expect the currency traders to go all in on any one-way bets with the dollar, ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow. And So it was the case on Monday, with the BBDXY ending the day 1234.90, thus showing that there wasn’t much movement either way in the dollar. Makes sense to me that traders would step away for a break, until they hear what the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel Chairman, Powell, has to say tomorrow afternoon. I do believe that the fix is in… And that the Fed Heads will show their true colors and not hike rates further… That doesn’t mean that they won’t come back to the rate hike table at a later date, should inflation reamin sticky, but the Fed Heads are like a HUGE Cruise Liner, they can’t turn on a dime, and so, I think if the Fed Heads do not continue to hike rates tomorrow, then that will be the end of the rate cycle… It will have ended before going above inflation, and therefore, inflation will continue… 
Gold didn’t fare too well yesterday, but better than in those engineered takedown days, as it posted a $3.20 loss on the day, and Silver lost 22-cents… Gold closed at $1,958.50, and Silver closed at $24.15… The price of Oil fell another buck yesterday, and ended the day trading with a $67 handle… Well, I told you above that Oil traders are defying the Saudi’s claim that 1. they will cut production, and 2. they will find out who’s shorting Oil and punish them…  I have an article in the FWIW section today, that address this situation further, so you won’t want to have missed that!  
In the overnight markets last night….  Well someone woke up and decided to trade currencies, and he or she decided that the FOMC will pause and that will cause the dollar to weaken, and so they sold dollars. The BBDXY lost 2 index points overnight, the euro is within’ spittin’ distance of 1.08, and the other currencies are all looking healthier this morning… Gold is up $8 in the early trading this morning, and Silver has aded 4-cents to its price….
The price of Oil has recovered a buck in the last 24 hours, and trades this morning with a $68 handle…  There’s been little to no movement in th 10-year’s yield, so we’ll move along for there’s nothing to see here… 
Well, just when you thought it was safe to return your cash to a bank, along comes best selling author, Addison Wiggen and his thoughts… Take it from here, will you Addison? ““Lines at food banks are getting longer,” warns commentary from Bloomberg. The story they’re referring to begins with a line outside an American Red Cross food pantry line “stretching two football fields” around several city blocks.

The article then takes a trip across the country looking at similar despair in various locations as food costs have outpaced inflation by 50% in many urban areas. Now the S&P 550 Financials chart reveals the sector is headed toward pre-2008 level crisis levels. It took a decade for financials to return to pre-crisis highs.

The danger today is if the banking crisis persists, we could see another route like 2008. And… you can’t have a bull market without strength in the banking sector.”= Addison Wiggen, from The Wiggin Sessions

Chuck again… food lines getting longer, is a reflection on the Gov’t and the adminstration… And when people are in line to get their divy of food, they will be asking others in line, hey, didn’t the POTUS, Treasury Sec, Fed chairman all tell us that the economy was strong and thriving?   Well, it was strong and thriving for the Elites… of which we obviously are not a part of… 
Ok… enough of that!  I forgot to mention yesterday that the Bank of Canada (BOC) hiked their internal rate again, moving their rate to 4.75%…  Well, now wth consumer inflation running around 4.4%, the interest rate is higher than the inflation rate, and they could very well see inflation start to narrow in Canada…  I don’t know if you noticed this or not, but in yesterday’s currency roundup the C$ had risen to  75-cents, not a huge gain, but baby steps for the loonie… 
So, good job, BOC… You get a Gold star! 
There are no other major Central Bank meetings this week, other than the U.S. Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel… They get to be on stage all by themseves, and to bask in the spotlight! 
Well, longtime readers know that I do not like deficit spending or accumulating debt… It’s just not right… spend only what you take in was what my father taught me, and I have tried to adhere to that all my life…  The U.S. Congress, Fed/ Treasury, etal, Are all to blame for this debt mess we are in now…  And the deficit spending doesn’t abate, instead it continues to grow and here’s the Committee for the Resonsible Budget: “The Deficit Was $2.1 Trillion Over Past Year

…up 50 percent from the $1.4 trillion deficit in Fiscal Year (FY) 2022 and more than twice as large as the deficit prior to the beginning of the pandemic.
The 12-month rolling deficit is also $170 billion higher than it was last month, thanks to a $236 billion deficit in May of 2023, compared to $66 billion last May. Compared to a year ago, total nominal spending is up 11 percent to $6.6 trillion and revenue is down 6 percent to $4.5 trillion.

As a share of the economy, deficits have totaled 8.1 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over the past year, over three times the historical average of 2.5 percent and three percentage points higher than 2019.”

Chuck again… You know I’ve always told you that Gov’t Spending was a large piece of our GDP… And without adding Gov’t spending into the mix our GDP would have been negative month after month after month, after month, you get the picture… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard today will have the stupid CPI report for May… I still don’t know why the markets get all keyed up over this stupid report with all its hedonic adjustments… But they do, and so I have to follow it, even though I abhor the data print… I already told you yesterday that I believe the fix is in on this report, so that the Fed Heads can pause rate hikes and point to the weaker CPI…  “hello? is the head of accounting around to talk on the phone? Just tell him Jerome is on the horn for him…  Hello? Yes, now here’s the plan for the Fed Heads this week, we don’t intend to hike rates again, but we need inflation to show a weakening so we can point to it, got it? “yes sir, I’m here at your requests”… 
And that’s how I see it went down…  of course you all know that I made that phone call up… 
To recap… The dollar traders have taken a leave for a couple of days ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow… But Gold couldn’t take advantage of the dollar floundering… The Bank of Canada hiked their internal interest rate to 4.75%, and Chuck gives them a Gold star!  And Oil traders are ignoring Saudi Arabia’s claim that they will cut production to levels during the plandemic.. I don’t think all that is going to work out nicely for the Oil traders, but its their bed, and now they have to sleep in it… 
For What It’s Worth… Well, I gave you teaser above about what’s in the FWIW today, and so, we will visit Bloomberg.com to find this article on the Oil traders, and it can be found here: Oil Traders Are Daring to Defy Market Kingpin Saudi Arabia – Bloomberg
Or, here’s your snippet: “Oil traders are starting to ignore the most important person in the market. It could prove a risky gambit.

A week ago, Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman pledged to unilaterally cut the country’s July oil production to the lowest in over a decade, excluding Covid-19 era curtailments. He described the move as a “lollipop.”
Deep Cuts | Saudi Arabia is set to cut output to about 9 million barrels a day in July
 
While there’ve been bigger output cuts in recent months, its symbolism was important, and Prince Abdulaziz left open the possibility of extending the curb. It also came on the back of a litany of comments that suggest the prince wants to hurt those who speculate on lower prices.
Yet, traders are becoming less responsive. The immediate price gain from the curbs he announced on last Sunday lasted a day. By Friday at 5 p.m. in London, Brent futures were around $76 a barrel — almost exactly where they were a week earlier. A previous output cut in April took less than a month to wear off on prices.

Speaking on Sunday, the prince said the OPEC+ agreement was about being proactive and precautionary. “I think the physical market is telling us something and the futures market is telling us something else,” he said at the Arab, China Business Conference in Riyadh. “To understand OPEC+ today, it’s all about being proactive, preemptive and precautionary.”

Chuck again… ok Oil traders, you’ve been warned to back off… proceed at your own risk… 
Before we head to the Big Finish this morning, I wanted to make note of the fact that yesterday was the day, that 4 years ago, our St. Louis Blues won their first Stanley Cup Championship, and then we had the victory parade that over 500,000 people attended… And partied… into the night… I recall sitting at home watching Game 7, and my youngest son, Alex, called me on the phone, and said, “Dad, are we going to be able to hold on”, I told him that, “There were only 2 minutes left, and the Blues had a 3 goal lead, I doubted they would blow it.”  And they didn’t! 
Market Price 6/13/2023: American Style: A$ .6777, kiwi .6142, C$ .7488, euro 1.0798, sterling 1.2570, Swiss $1.1035, European Style: rand 18.6523, krone 10.7729, SEK 10.7806, forint 343.68, zloty 4.1467, koruna 22.0613, RUB 83.82, yen 139.58, sing 1.3404, HKD 7.8337, INR 82.37, China 7.1508, peso 17.29, BRL 4.8648, BBDXY 1,232.25, Dollar Index 103.33, Oil $68.40, 10-year 3.73%, Silver $24.19, Platinum $992.00, Palladium $1,376.00, Copper $3.79, and Gold… $1,965.52
That’s it for today… Man do I look bad right now… The antibiotic I was taking to clear up an infection, caused my face to turn red with bumps that itch like crazy… I’m glad I take the last one this morning… Then I’ll have to see how long ti takes to get my skin back to normal… The good thing is that I don’t go anywhere in the next week… So, I won’t see anyone that would probably look at me and laugh…  The other good thing is that there is Benedryll.   Well, this next weekend will be Father’s Day… I hope to see all my kids that day. I’m quite aware that they have their lives to live too, so no pressure from me… I mentioned my dad above today, I had the greatest respect for my dad… he could fix anything, he was strong as as ox, and could be tender as a teddy bear… I really got to know him, during his days of receiving radiation at a hospital in the city, as I would leave work, drive to his house in the county, wheel him out to his lift van, drive him to the Hospital, then take him home, and then hop in my car and return to work… We had some very good conversations in that van…   Redbone takes us to the finish line today with his song: Come and Get Your Love….  I hope you have a Ton Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

It’s FOMC Week!

June 12, 2023

* Currencies & metals are stuck in the mud… 

* What surprises will CPI have for us tomorrow? 

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! So… How are you today? It’s June 12, 2023, and summer is just 10 days away… We didn’t experience any summer like weather here yesterday, as the temps never got out of the 60’s, and there was rain all over… The Cardinals got their game in without any rain delays, but I think it would have been better to have the game postponed! UGH! There’s been some carving down of the number of short positions in Silver lately, so we’ll look into that, and see what’s up with the U.S. data…  That, and more in today’s Pfennig… The Little River Band greets me this morning with their song: Happy Anniversary!  How appropriate for that song to come up today… 
Well, the dollar hasn’t really gone any where but in a tight range, on Friday… I think traders are sitting there waiting for hte FOMC announcement, which will come on Wednesday afternoon…  But on Thursday of last week, The BBDXY, fell from 1244 on Wednesday to 1234.24, and then on Friday the dollar was shown some love and the BBDXY gained less than a point to 1,235… I would have to say that if traders were real fundamental traders, they would look at this weeks FOMC announcement and say, I’m taking a bet that the FOMC pauses, and that should hurt the dollar… But as we already know, funadmentals have taken a back seat to “sentiment” by the traders…  Either way, the euro has pushed higher in the 1.07 handle, and once again, the currencies look perky… How many times in the past has the PPT, and their exchange stabilization Fund come in and knocked that smile right off the faces of the currencies?  
Gold and Silver rallied strongly on Thursday, with Gold gaining $25, and Silver gaining 82-cents! Gold saww some profit taking on Friday, and closed down $3.90 at $1,60.70, and Silver was able to gain on Friday but only  a few pennies, and ended the week $24.42… Ed Steer does a great job at detailing the short positions in the metals, especially Gold & Silver.. .Each Saturday, in Ed’s letter, which you can find and subscribe to if that suits you, and that can be found here: Ed Steer’s Gold and Silver Digest (edsteergoldsilver.com) In his last week’s Saturday letter, hie talked about how the short positions in Silver have been droppeing, I remember when it used to take 185 days of prodution to meet the number of ounces shold short… Well, in Ed’s Saturday report, he reported the number of days of production to have dropped to 138!!!   That’s still a preposterous number of short positions, as you can see the thrill of shorting Silver has waned a bit… And that should be a good thing for Silver going forwar!
The yield on the 10-year rose to 3.75% on Friday, last.. the 10-year’s yield is slowly picking up steam once again…  Ed Steer also had an aritcle highlighted last week, and this is what he had to say about that: “As is always the case, the Fed was buying treasuries hand over fist when required to prevent interest rates from rising across the yield curve.”
So, remember when I said that it was problaby the Fed Heads doing the buying of the 10-year in large chunks? Look who was right… I’m just saying… 
In the overnight markets last night…. There was’t much to talk about… The BBDXY is still 1,233, Silver is flat, and Gold is up $3 to start the day. I’m convinced that everyone and their brother, their 2nd cousin, and his BFF are waiting for the FOMC announcement that will take place on Wednesday afternoon… The price of Oil has slid to a $68 handle, with traders and investors saying to the Saudi’s and the production cuts, neener, neener, neener!  With the price Of oil floundering, the Russian ruble is not faring too well, either… The rest of of the Petrol Currencies, like the Norwegian krone, Brazilan real, Canadian dollar are all doing quite well these days, but not the ruble… 
I have to talk about the stupid CPI for May that will print tomorrow… This report is key as it will either show that the Fed Heads’ earlier 10 rate hikes have begun to work, or… it will show that there is more work , in rate hikes, to do. Since this report is scheduled to print the day before the FOMC meeting, it will hang in the air and be present all around the meeting room in the Eccles Bldg, where the FOMC meets… I’m convinces that the Fed Heads know all to well that to stop hiking rates now is a mistake, but on the other hand, their dark side bosses don’t like what’s happened to their stock portfolios, and therefore I believe that the fix is in…  The CPI report will be lackluster, and not showing real inflation gains, and the will allow the Fed Heads to pause the next day, pointing to the weak inflation report…   
There’s markets manipulation all around us every day, why not manipulate the stupid CPI to have it read what you want it to say? The stupid CPI already has a ton of hedonic adjustments that were put in place during the Clinton administration… Yeah, Clinton and Big Al Greenspan did the dirty deed, done cheap… But hey! look at all the people that have been able to buy a home with lower mortgage rates…  Oh brother! does the mortgage problems of 2007/08 ring a bell?  I’ll stop now and move along… 
Copper is finally reacting to all the talk of a shortage in the metal that is coming… It took Copper down to $3.65, before traders and investors started to realize that was really stupid, and began to buy it again… Copper is a great indication of rising inflation, so what do you think? Is inflation going to come back strong?  Or just whimper away? You all know that I’m of the opinion that inflation is very sticky and will be difficult to move back to the FEd Heads’ preferred rate of 2%, when interest rates are higher than the inflation rate by at least 300 Basis Points (3%)…  And this rally in Copper is proof to me that inflation isn’t going to whimper away…  I’m just saying,,,,
I was rereading James Rickards book “The Death of Money” this past weeked, while I was alone on my own, and then grandson, Braden, walked in from outside, and asked me wha I was reading… I told him, Braden, in your lifetime, there will be no more folding dollars, 5’s, 10’s 20’s 50’s 100 and so on… I explained to him how the Gov’t wants to control our spending, and they can do that with digital currency…  I walked away from him, and he sat their thinking, I could see the lght bulb turn on over his hear… He then said, “that sounds convenient, but risky”.. .I told him, he was smarter than the elected representatives… 

Good friend, Dennis Miller of www.milleronthemoney.com sent me a rant the other day… I give it you in his words? “”I read this morning where Schumer got the federal government to send $105 million to New York to help cover the cost of illegal immigrants.  

Let me see if I have this right.  The federal government is asking law abiding taxpayers to send money to subsidize the cost of sanctuary cities law breaking activities.  Now what could possibly be wrong with that?” – Dennis Miller
Chuck agains… Yes money, contrary to what my mother taught me, does grow on trees , and it can be spent o the darndest things, no wonder the Debt Clock.org, tells in that in short, high school years, our debt in the U.S. will be $40 Tillion…  I have to question whether or not, that will happen, becuase, I see the whole financial system impoding befor we get to $40 Rrillion…  Let’s hope Im wrong about that!
The U.S. Data cupboard, last week, was awful… The Trade Deficit grew to 76 Billion April, and the Consumer Credit (read debt) fell in April but only from 26 Billion to 23 Billion… Now, one would like to think tht the Consumer debt falling by 3 Billion would   be a good thing to happen, but lets’ get real here… $23 Billion is HUGE for Consumer to carry..  
On Thursday all we had was the Weekly Initial Jobles Claims, which saw a huge upward spike, last week.. .the Initial claims rose to 261,000 from 233,000… 
Friday’s cupboard was basiclly bare, as is today’s… So no further damage can the dollar suffer from economic data today… 
The Data Cupboard this week will start out lackluster, but build to a crescendo… So, today the eye of the storm will move over us, and then the tail winds will do the damage later in the week… 
To recap:  The dollar got sold on Thursday last week, but range traded on Friday… The currencies are looking perky again, and Chuck reminds us the Exchange Stabilization Fund is always lurking in a dark alley, ready to pounce. Gold gained $25 on Thursday, and saw some pofit taking On Friday… Chuck points out that short position in Silver have been abating, and that’s a good thing…  If ther ever comes a day, that there are no commercial short positions in Gold or Silver, that would indicate to me that these two metals would be soaring,, Probably not in my lifetime, but at some point in the futre it is going to me a un-profit bearing trade…  The overnight markets last night didn’t have an OOOMPH to them either, so we start the week watching paint dry, and build as the week goes on… 
For What it’s worth… Well, I’ve shown that I can’t get enought of Matthew Piepenburg’s writing, and so it is that I have his latest highlighted here today in the FWIW Section… This is about our debt… and it can be found here; Stories for Children: The US Economic Fairytale – Matterhorn – GoldSwitzerland

Or, here’s your snippet: “When Humpty Dumpty fell off the wall and took a big fall, “all the king’s horses and all the king’s men could not put Humpty-Dumpty together again.”

I see a similar fate for the US debt egg, whose cracks are just about, well… everywhere.
Cracks in the Debt Egg
The first obvious (but media ignored) signs of this breaking egg emerged in September of 2019, when the TBTF banks no longer trusted each other’s collateral and the repo markets spiked overnight, prompting Uncle Fed to be the lender of last resort to its spoiled little banking nephews.
This required hundreds and hundreds of billions in mouse-clicked liquidity.
But then again, what does a billion or trillion even mean anymore to a mouse-clicker and $31+T (and growing) Public debt?
Numbers, like debts, have effectively become abstractions in what I previously described as a “banalization of debt.”
Since the repo crisis, as Uncle Sam’s twin deficits expanded at a fairytale pace alongside rising rate policies which neutered the price of sovereign bonds and hence the balance sheets and the life-cycles of regional banks, the Humpty-Dumpty US arrived at yet another climatic debt-ceiling reality-check.
Can-Kicking the Breaking Egg
As predicted, this “crisis” was “solved” by a predictable can-kicking of its debt responsibilities (and reality-checks) into a post-election-cycle.
How politically convenient.
In fact, political convenience at the expense of economic common sense or fiscal accountability is the very hallmark of our math-blind yet power-smug “representatives” in DC.
For those paying attention, however, the US not only voted past it’s $31.4T debt ceiling, it removed/suspended that ceiling all together.

This effectively allows the children in DC to borrow and spend without limit until 2025.”

Chuck again… Great article, if you have the time click the link and have at tit! Remember back in Sept of 2019, when the repos were in the Pfennig nearly every day? And then suddenly, we forgot about them, did the banks suddenly get well? No our attention was diverted to Covid…  I’ll say nothing more about thqt!
Market Prices 6/12/2023: American Style: A$.6764, kiwi .6140, C$ .7503, euro 1.0771, sterling 1.2569, Swiss $1.1050, European Sytle: rand 18.58, krone 10.8033, SEK 10.7910, forint 351.42, zloty 4.1227, koruna 22.0555, RUB 83.11, yen 139.34, sing 1.3428, HKD 7.8336, INR 82.43, China 7.1430, peso 17.43, BRL 4.8817, BBDXY 1,233.23, Dollar Index 103.43, Oil $68.56, 10-year 3.75%, Silver $24.23, Platinum $1,002.00, Palladium $1,323.00, Copper $3.79, and Gold… $1,963.12
That’s it for today… Another blown chance to win a series, as my beloved Cardinals lose 2 of 3 to the Reds… UGH! Our STL City SC team drew a tie in their game yesterday 1-1.  Once again, I was not in the park to watch the game having to resport to watching it on my phone, as we traveled across the state of Missouri yesterday. The City team as been without their big goal scorer for a long time now, and it has affected the way they play… But they are in first place in their division, so it hasn’t hurt them too much!  Well, Kathy & Chuck got married on this day in 1976, which makes this our 47th anniversary… It was a hot and sunny day back in 1976, lots of fun was had on the day, and then at the reception that night…  Well, we spent the weekend, last, at Table Rock Lake, with son Andrew and his family, visiting the great hosts, Duane and Toni… I’m really getting fatigued during the day these days… and it makes it a pain for me to beg out of a boat ride, because I need a nap!  Leo Sayer greets me this morning, with his song: When I Need You… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

A Debt Blowout On The First Day After The Drama…

June 7, 2023

*currencies & metals rally in the overnight markets

* What up with the BOK? 

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I won’t be writing tomorrow, so you’re on your own to have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday!  People say I’m the life of a party, cause I tell a joke or two…  (Smokey Robinson) I’m not really the life of a party, because, if you ask me a question, you’ll find out that I don’t pull any punches, and I don’t have a filter… So, normally, people steer clear of me, and when I walk into a room full of people, the room will quickly empty out…  And it’s because…. Like I said, I don’t pull punches, and I don’t have a filter…  For instance, the editor of the local alternative paper in town, Rob Rains, asked me a month ago what I thought the Cardinals needed… And he got an earful…  Here’s my response to him “Chuck Butler agrees that a “shake up” could help the team.
“The Cardinals need a jolt,” he said. “They need to put Edman back to lead off and switch Goldy & Arenado in the batting order.  I would put Goldy in the clean-up spot and leave him there the rest of the year.”
Here comes his idea for the jolt.
“They need to trade O’Neil and get a starter. If they believe that Waino is going to straighten out the problem with the starters well, that will turn out in tears.”
He likes that they brought Jordan Walker back up and hopes they “let him play and learn.”
“The starting pitchers sans Montgomery can’t pitch past five innings without giving up big innings so don’t pitch them past the fourth or fifth… then bring in another starter to finish the game. We need more starters on the roster, and only keep a few bullpen guys.
Butler has a lot of ideas to improve the team, but that doesn’t mean he has given up.

“I really thought this team was going to be quite good… they still can be… but changes need to be made.”

Rob’s letter on the Cardinals can be found here: www.stlsportspage.com   
OK! How’s that for an intro to the letter today? And what the heck does that have to do with currencies, metals, economics, dolts, etc?  Well, as the good Rev. Al Green sand, Nothing, absolutely Nothing!  But I started writing and the next thing I knew, here we are! 
Besides yesterday’s markets action was akin to watching paint dry!  The dollar didn’t really move, actually losing less than 1 index point on the day, Gold only gained $1.90, and Silver only gained 1-cent!  I believe traders in both the currencies and metals were plum worn out, after all the Kabuki Theater drama last week, and then the back and forth from the Fed Heads that either think the FOMC should pause, or they shouldn’t…  The short paper traders were lurking in a dark alley, ready to pounce on any gains that would lead to a major rally in the metals, and the currencies couldn’t muster any thiing that even looked like a rally…  So… that’s the reason for the long non market related intro today… 
I’ve won baseball tickets from Rob Rains letter previously, when responding to questions he lays out… Apparently, my ideas are worth throwing at the wall to see what sticks!  My mother always thought I would be a sports writer… I guess I missed my calling, eh? 
In the overnight markets last night we did see some action, with the dollar getting sold a bit… The BBDXY has lost 3 index points overnight, and the euro has climbed back above 1.07… Haven’t seen much talking about why the selling took place, but there is something that could have had some effect on the dollar traders, and that is:  the U.S. national debt spiked by $359 Billion in one single day, the first working day after the debt ceiling was suspended. Didn’t I tell you that this would happen once the debt esclator agreement was signed? And this is just the start folks… We’ll see several more days like this in the coming days… 
Gold is down $5 in the early trading today, and Silver is down a plug nickel… Ted Butler (no relation) wrote an interesting letter yesterday regarding Silver manipulation, that the good folks at GATA sent me, and so I’ll highlight a bit of the letter, because, according to Ted Butler, the silver guru, maybe, just maybe, Silver manipulation is going away… Here’s Ted: “A set of readily-verifiable facts have combined to point to a stunning conclusion, namely, that thanks largely to enough people doing the right thing, that the federal commodities regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, may have also finally done the right thing when it comes to the decades-old COMEX silver price manipulation. If my assessment is correct, the most logical conclusion is that we may be at the end of the long-running manipulation and set to rocket higher in silver prices”
Chuck again… you can find his complete letter at www.silverseek.com  
Did you hear about the Bank of Korea? (BOK)… The BOK announced that they are NOT interested in buying Gold, and prefer to stay with dollars as their reserve…  Talk about someone living under a rock….  Just about every Central Bank in the World, sans the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, and apparently now the BOK, are buying physical Gold by the truck loads… Oh, well, we’ll have to wait-n-see how that turns out for the BOK… My thought is that it will end up in tears, but then my colors have always been pinned to the mast of Gold…  I’m just saying…
In today’s Data Cupboard, we’ll see April prints for the Trade Deficit, and Consumer Credit (read debt)… I would think that the Trade Deficit print will be a blow-out report. The Consumer Credit report, I already talked about yesterday, but for those that skipped class yesterday, because it was such a nice late spring day outside, I said that I don’t think that Consumer debt will match March’s $26.5 Billion, but I do believe it will remain above $20 Billion… which is bad in itself, but the markets will just shrug it off, probably… So, move along now, these are not the droids we’re looking for… 
To recap… There was little to no movement in the currencies and metals yesterday, and so Chuck entertains us with his submission to The STL Sportspage…. In the overnight markets the BBDXY lost 3 index points, but Gold is down $5, and Silver starts the day down 5-cents… The U.S. added $359 Billion in one single day after the debt escalator agreement was signed… Chuck tells us that this is not a one and done, either…  And what’s up with the BOK? 
For What It’s Worth… Well, I’ve talked about the W. Virginia rep Alex Mooney, previously, in his efforts to get Gold & Silver, first tax exempt, and then as legal currency… Now the representative from W. Virginia has introduced a bill that would prevent the digital dollar from becoming a thing and it can be found here: Rep. Alex Mooney Aims to Block Fed’s Digital Currency Scheme (moneymetals.com)
Or, here’s your snippet: “In recent days, sound money champion Congressman Alex Mooney (R-WV) introduced H.R. 3712, the Digital Dollar Pilot Prevention Act – legislation that would block the Fed from unilaterally pursuing any form of central bank digital currency (CBDC) scheme.

“Congress cannot give an inch when it comes to CBDCs. CBDCs would threaten the liberties of law-abiding Americans and are being used by authoritarian countries right now to crack down on dissent,” said Rep. Mooney.
H.R. 3712 is the latest in a growing backlash to central planners’ designs to further centralize government control of currencies, including creating a greater ability to track all financial transactions, disallowing certain types of purchases, and even outright “turning off” a targeted individual’s access to money.
Rep. Mooney’s bill defines “central bank digital currency” as “a form of digital money or monetary value, denominated in the national unit of account, that is a direct liability of the Federal Reserve.”
The bill continues, “Unless authorized by an Act of Congress enacted after the date of the enactment of this act, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal reserve banks may not establish, carry out, or approve a program intended to test the practicability of issuing a central bank digital currency, including by partnering or coordinating with a private sector entity to carry out such a program.”

H.R. 3712 has already attracted support, with more than a dozen original cosponsors and several endorsements from pro-liberty groups.”

Chuck again… we can only hope that this bill has a chance, and it’s not too late…. because as Ed Steer always has at the end of his letter each day, from the Great Gandalf: ” Things are now in motion that cannot be undone”… 
Market Prices 6/7/2023: American Style:  .6698, kiwi 6080, C$ .7470, euro 1.0716, sterling 1.2469, Swiss $1.1040, European Style: rand 18.9915, krone 11.0038, SEK 10.8467, forint 343.92, zloty 4.1698, koruna 22.0440,
RUB 81.70, yen 139.28, sing 1.3462, HKD 7.8407, INR 82.50, China 7.1120, peso 17.35, BRL 4.9099, BBDXY 1,237.70, Dollar Index 103.88, Oil $72.53, 10-year 3.68%, Silver $23.62, Platinum $1,042.00, Palladium $1,415.00, Copper $3.76, and Gold… $1,962.57
That’s it for today and this week… Went to see my oncologist yesterday, and they found something in my blood work that was not good, but easily corrected, so it was worth it to have a needle stuck in me once a month!  It amazes me the information that can be gotten from someone’s blood… They can probably tell if I’m not getting enough sleep! I’m heading back out-of-town tomorrow, this will be short trip, and I’ll be back in the saddle on Monday… Well, my beloved Cardinals lost again last night… They hit 3 home runs, and still lost! The Cardinals mantra for the last 25 years has been for the starting pitchers to pitch to contact… And then play excellent defense, but that mantra is passe now… You need blow the ball by the hitter pitchers, and we have none! UGH!  Oh, well, there’s always next year!   Little Feat takes us to the finish line today with their live version of their song: Dixie Chicken… You know… If you’ll be my Dixie Chicken, I’ll be your Tennessee lamb… that song… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

Are You Ready For The Tsunami Of Bonds Being Issued?

June 6, 2023

* Currencies & metals rally on Monday… 

* What’s up with this talk of a rate hike pause? 

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, the bad times keep coming for my beloved Cardinals… They lost their 4th straight road game last night… And 4th loss, overall in a row…  It’s almost maddening to watch them let pop flies drop at their feet, swing at balls 3 feet outside, and so on… I was commiserating with good friend, Dennis Miller, on the phone yesterday, and he said, “Welcome to Cubdom”.. He then went on to explain what he had witnessed for years with the Cubs and how they lost games, and it sounded just like what I would say in describing this year’s Cardinals team… Thank goodness the Cardinals are in the Central Division, the team is 11 games under .500, but only 7.5 games out of first place! Medicraty has hit the Central Division… Cat Stevens greets me this morning with his song: If You Want To Sing Out…. 
 
Well, the week, yesterday morning, got started off with the dollar getting bought in the overnight markets, and it appeared that it was going to be “one of those weeks”…  But soon, the dollar started getting sold, and when the dust cleared on the day, the BBDXY had lost 4 index points… The euro finally knocked on the door to the 1.07 handle, and this time it was answered and the euro was allowed to enter the handle… That meant the rest of the little dogs got to get off the porch and chase the dollar down the street…  
 
And Gold & Silver, which were down to start the day yesterday, saw a turnaround too… Gold, which was down $7 early, ended the day up $14.20, and Silver, which was down 26-cents early, ended the day, down just 3-cents… I wish I could tell you that everything about the markets has changed, and that caused the turnaround in the dollar and metals…  But I couldn’t find one story out there that told a tale of how or why this happened yesterday… It wasn’t caused by Data, for the Data Cupboard was empty yesterday, as it is today too… 
 
The price of Oil dropped $2 yesterday, and ended the day trading with a $71 handle… Maybe Oil traders got together and said, “production cut, schoduction cut” And went back to selling Oil… not believing that the Saudi’s will be successful in getting other Oil producing countries to follow them with a production cut of their own. And someone must have gotten a call from the Fed Heads, because the yield on the 10-year dropped 5 BPS to end the day trading with a 3.70% yield… 
 
In the overnight markets last night…  The traders overnight, have stopped the dollar selling, but they haven’t exactly turned the tables and bought dollars… The BBDXY has gained 1 index point overnight, and thus has pushed the euro back below 1.07… The dollar strength looks tenuous at best to me… but then we’re talking about Chuck, the guy that has been calling for a long term dollar weakness trend for a couple of years now… I have one job as a stand up comedian, ask me what it is? Timing! as I but in with the answer…. Timing isn’t a strong point with me… I’m just saying… 
 
The prices of Gold & Silver are flat to down a itty-bitty bit… 1-cent for Silver… see? itty-bitty…  Traders are very confused at this point, which way to go with the asset classes, due to the wishy washy thoughts on the next Fed Heads meeting… Remember, what Chuck always says… If it’s the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel making the decision, it’ll be the wrong decision… Just wait-n-see what I’m talking about… 
 
The Saudi announcement of a 1 Million barrel-a-day production cut, stirred the Oil traders for one day, and then it was back to selling Oil, and getting the price back down… The price of Oil lost another buck overnight, and has in the last 24 hours lost $3, to trade this morning with a $70 handle… 
 
And then bonds… are you getting ready for the tsunami of Bond issuance that’s going on right now?  This from Bloomberg.com this morning: “With a debt ceiling deal freshly signed into law Saturday by President Joe Biden, the U.S. Treasury is about to unleash a tsunami of new bonds to quickly refill its coffers.

This will be yet another drain on dwindling liquidity as bank deposits are raided to pay for it — and Wall Street is warning that markets aren’t ready.”
Chuck again, so to answer my question, It looks as though the markets are NOT ready for the tsunami of bonds that will be unleased on them… This could get very interesting folks… Just because the U.S. is issuning these bonds by the truck load, doesn’t mean there will be buyers lined up to take them off the hands of the U.S. And that could result in yields rising… So, we had better watch out for that… in other words, keep an eye on the direction of yields in bonds… 
The Petrol Currencies, like the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, Norwegian krone, Canadian dollar, etc. get to see their respective currency levels get thrashed about just like the price of Oil does… Up $2, then down $2, rinse and repeat…  So, currency traders just don’t move these currencies much because they know that the price of Oil is going to move about the country…   
 
And so… there’s no basking in the sun for these Petrol Currencies, until an upward destination is a thing the markets can rely on… 
 
So… I’ve been talking about the de=dollarization going on in the world today, and yesterday, some folks at JPMorgan issued a report that, well I’ll let them tell you: “De-dollarization is evident in FX reserves where (the dollar’s) share has declined to a record as share in exports declined, but is still emerging in commodities,” the strategists said.

JPMorgan’s assessment is the most high profile of any large U.S. bank although heavyweight asset managers such as Goldman Sachs Asset Management have also voiced views on the trend.”

 
Chuck again… I thank the good folks at GATA for sending me that info… 
 
Well, will they or won’t they? The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel will meet on June 13 & 14, with a rate announcement on the 14th, and just last week the odds of a rate hike were at 70%, and after today, it’s 65%… A couple of Fed Heads came out an talked about the need to pause after hiking rates 10 consecutive meetings…  Maybe a pause would be sensible, and then maybe it would be risky… 
 
From what I’ve read, the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel is showing on their data charts that inflation will rise again later this year… So, while a pause might be sensible to see what’s going on with their previous 10 rate hikes, but given that the Fed Heads are seeing that inflation is still rising, it most definetely will be risky to pause… They could fall behind the inflation 8 ball once again, and then the need to catch up would be painful…  You know me, and my dislike for the Fed Heads, and their inability to see inflation when it was poking them in the nose, will pick the wrong thing to do, because, well, because they are the Fed Heads, and doing the wrong thing is what they do! 
 
So, heres where I stand on this.. Inflation is still rising, the latest inflation reports showed a .2% gain last month, to 4.7% in the Fed’s favorite inflation meter…  And if the Fed Heads are seeing inflation moving higher later this year, why not hike rates now and get out in front of this inflation?  Because even though the Fed Heads will come out and say that a pause is not a pivot, and they are prepared to hike rates further later this year, the markets won’t hear any of that, they’ll prefer to hear that the Fed’s rate hikes have ended and their next move in down… .
 
The markets don’t like to be fooled, and if they take that wrong stance, then they are setting themselves up for getting fooled… Stupid markets… They just can’t get it through their thick heads that inflation isn’t going anywhere, and probably going higher… stupid markets… 
 
OK, an update from the BLS and their locking Chuck out of their data… Vanessa at the BLS sent me an email and said that I need to jump through some hoops, and fight through the mess… (she didn’t say that, but what she did say meant that!)  So, you know me… I’m not going to let someone throwing roadblocks at me, win… But I’m not going to jump through hoops, to get the data… I’ll just make up the number of jobs the BLS made up… One made up number deserves another made up number!   So, for the BLS’s Jobs created in April, of 339,000, I’m going to say that 178,000 of them were added by the BLS, after receiving the surveys… So, that just leaves 161,000 jobs created in April from the surveys…  And therefore the raising of the Jolly Roger to celebrate the BLS Jobs report, was a scam… That’s my story and I’m sticking to it!  
 
When did the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel become this “rock star” that demands everyone’s undivided attention?  Before Paul Volcker,  one would be hard pressed to name the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel Chairman… But now, the markets live and breathe on what the Fed Heads are saying… I find it all tedious, and boring… Because they never really tell what’s on their feeble minds…  I’m just saying… 
 
Got Gold?  Back when I used to travel all over God’s Green earth to give presentations and speeches, I used to get asked this question the most: “Are you available?”  No wait! C’mon Chuck, get serious here! Ok, they would ask me what they would do with their gold coins once the dollar had collapsed?  They couldn’t use it to buy a loaf of bread, etc. And then I decided that they needed to convert some of their 1-ounce Gold coins into 1/4 ounce Gold coins, and then use them to buy their loaves of bread…  And these smaller coins are easier to store!   So, this is a Public Service Announcement… Use it to your advantage in good health! 
 
The U.S. Data Cupboard is empty again today… And this week’s offerings are null and void… The only data print that will even get noticed si the Consumer Credit (read Debt) for April… I doubt that it will match, March’s blow out debt figure of $26.5 Billion, but I would bet you a shiny quarter that it will be at least $20 Billion! That data will print tomorrow… nothing on the docket today… 
 
To recap… The dreariness of the currencies and metals yesterday morning were turned around, and things looked brighter for the currencies and metals at day’s end…  I think it could have been the news that I talked about later in the letter this morning, and that is the oods of a rate hike in June are falling… Chuck thinks whatever the Fed Heads decide to do, it will end up being the wrong thing to do… It’s just that way for the Fed Heads… 
 
For What It’s Worth…. Well, since I spent so much time talking about the so-called “pause” this morning, this article on Bloomberg.com, ties it all up with a bow, and it can be found here: Fed Has Message Problem After Early Rate Pause Signals, El-Erian Says – BNN Bloomberg
Or, here’s your snippet: “The Federal Reserve shouldn’t have led investors to expect a pause in interest-rate hikes in June before officials saw last month’s jobs numbers, says Mohamed El-Erian.

“People are now going to be scratching their head — why did they guide the market so strongly towards a skip ahead of this report and ahead of the next CPI,” the chief economic adviser at Allianz SE and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist told Bloomberg TV on Friday, following a stronger-than-expected May jobs release.
US companies added 339,000 jobs last month after an upwardly revised advance in April, data showed Friday. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7%, while wage growth cooled. It was the fourteenth-straight upside surprise, and the US economy remains a major engine of job creation, which is good news, El-Erian added.
“Thinking that one month of data is going to make a huge difference is, I think, fooling yourself, but they have framed it that way — and it’s a shame,” he added. “We’re all now discussing is it a skip, is it a pause when there’s such bigger issues involved. And that’s the risk of being excessively data-dependent, is that you get stuck in a sort of smaller and smaller corner and the data will pin you there.”
Bond traders have cemented expectations that the Fed will do one more round of policy tightening this cycle, but they still see it as most likely happening in July.
El-Erian added that he worries central-bank officials will push the economy into a recession. For one, they lack a strategic view and a valid monetary framework. Second, they have the wrong inflation target. And three, they are attempting to restore their credibility, he said.
“The risk of yet another policy error, I fear, is quite high,” he said.

“If they are serious about their 2% target, given the data, they should hike,” El-Erian added. “Because they are data-dependent and the data has been hotter than expected.”

 
Chuck again… So, see? Chuck isn’t the only person that believes the Fed is making a mistake, and he thinks that because, it IS The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel making the decision… 
 
Market prices 6/6/2023: American Style: A$ .6656, kiwi .6078, C$ .7446, euro 1.0690, sterling 1.2421, Swiss $1.1011, European Style: rand 19.2208, krone 11.1020, SEK 10.8557, forint 344.87, zloty 4.1983, koruna 22.0662, RUB 81.18, yen 139.57, sing 1.3472, HKD 7.8414, INR 82.59, China 7.1185, peso 17.45, BRL 4.9285, BBDXY 1,241.19, Dollar Index 104.16, Oil $70.53, 10-year 3.67%, Silver $23.65, Platinum $1,050.00, Palladium $1,427.00, Copper $3.76, and Gold… $1,963.70
 
That’s it for today…. Well, I start my new round of chemo today… 3weeks on 1 week off… I really liked it last week not having to take any chemo… But like all things… All things come to an end… We had an enjoyable ride home from NW Arkansas on Sunday… Good thing we left as early as we did, for the lake traffic of people going home from the lakes in SW Missouri, was really picking up as we went along… I always truly enjoy driving through Missouri, it’s so scenic, and has hills, bluffs, and other places that catch your attention… And since I wasn’t driving, I was able to really enjoy the state… It did feel a bit strange, riding shotgun in MY car! But Grace gets car sick if she isn’t driving, so I yielded the driving of MY car to her!  I heard from Delta Airlines about our ordeal on Friday… I wonder what they will do?  Probably nothing… Oh well I hit a nail with them when I tagged them in a Tweet that wasn’t very nice…  Dire Straits take us to the finish line today with their song: Sultans of Swing…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday, and please, oh please, Be Good To Yourself!
 
Chuck Butler

Back To The Real Problems For The U.S.

June 1, 2023

* currencies & metals gain a bit on Wednesday

* Chicago PMI is in shambles… 

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all!  And Welcome to June!  Well, my wife dragged me out yesterday, and took me patio furniture shopping… I can tell you one thing; we did our best to help out with the Retail Sales for May!  She’s been saying for over a year now that we needed new Patio furniture for down here in Florida…  So, I finally succumbed and said, let’s do it! And in the end, we did quite well, getting exactly what we wanted, at a decent price!  The last Ted Lasso aired last night…  Now I’ll have to find another show that entertained me as much as that show did for 3 years!   
Pfennig Tradition calls for me to sing this song: June is busting out all over,  All over the meadow and the hill

Buds’re bustin’ outa bushes, And the rompin’ river pushes, Ev’ry little wheel that wheels beside the mill… Spell check does not like Rogers and Hammerstein’s words! 
There’s something on my mind this morning, that I have to talk about before I talk about markets., economies, and the dolts that run them… I read yesterday that 3 Marines in California, were attacked by a group of derelicts… What is wrong with these youngsters in this country? Have they grown up with no manors, no decorum, no ability to tell right from wrong?  Judging from what I read in that article the answer to those questions is a rounding YES!, they have no manors, they have no decorum, and they have no ability to tell right from wrong…  I shake my head in disgust at these kids, and think, one day, they’ll be running this country… Now that’s a scary thought…
OK… well, this is later this morning, because I had an awful night…  The new chemo that I take, has done the job, and the tumor is gone again, but… what’s left is not fun to deal with, and I was up most of the night dealing with it…  So, that’s my excuse, and I’m not changing it! HA!
The dollar got sold by a small amount yesterday, it was down by 4 index points at one point of the day, and looking like it could lose more, and then it didn’t…  The dollar buts fought back and the the dollar only lost 2 index points in the BBDXY to end the day… The euro was attempting to climb back to the 1.07 handle, but fell short, after the dollar bugs rescued the dollar from further damage…  Just to show you how ridiculous these markets are these days, take the case of the Aussie dollar and kiwi… Australia has lagged New Zealand with regards to rate hikes, and appears to be close to their end of a rate cycle, while New Zealand is still hiking rates higher, and have the highest rates in the industrialized world, but guess who gets more love? The A$… stranger than fiction, and another line of proof that fundamentals no longer rule currencies and their respective values… 
Gold gained $3.10 yesterday, to end the day at $1,962.40… Silver had a good day, gaining 33-cents to end the day at $23.49…  Slowly gaining back the losses that were handed to the metals last week… You know, slow and steady, is a good way to rally, as it doesn’t ruffle feathers with the short paper traders…  I’m just saying…
The price of Oil bumped higher by a buck and ended the day yesterday, trading with a $68 handle… And Bonds didn’t move, so the buying and selling had abated yesterday, and leaving the 10-year at 3.65%
In the overnight markets last night… The dollar got sold a little more, with it losing 2 more index points in the BBDXY… The euro is still knocking on the door to 1.07 but falling short at this point of the day.  Bonds are steady Eddie, and Oil is range trading to start the day… 
Yesterday, the Chicago PMI, the regional pulse on Manufacturing, printed… And that’s the nicest thing I can say about the report… This from zerohedge.com this morning: “After the unexpected resurgence in April, Chicago PMI plunged in May from 48.6 to 40.4 (against expectations of 47.3). That is the ninth straight month below 50 (in contraction)…

That is the longest streak of prints in ‘contraction’ since the Great Financial Crisis.”

Chuck again…  since the Great Financial Crisis… Let that sink in, because if we get a couple more reports like the one in May, we’ll be looking at a situation that’s “worse than the Great Financial Crisis”  I have the great mind of Doug Casey in the FWIW section today, talking about how we are heading to “worse than the Great Financial Crisis”, so you won’t want to have missed that! Stay tuned, don’t change that dial! 
Well, don’t you feel great? I mean this was the day that the dark clouds were to move over the U.S. and Armagedón was supposed to be all around us, because this was the first “x” day that Treasury Sec. Janet Yellen told us that all bad things would happen if we didn’t have a debt escalator agreement in place.  I called her bluff on that, and eventually she came around and said the new “x” day would be June 5…   All lies and more lies… But that’s our Gov’t…  The US Senate is set to take up a bill to lift the government’s $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, with just four days left to pass the measure and send it to the POYUS to sign…  All Kabuki theater, and bad drama will come to an end… And we can get back to the real problems for the U.S. economy.
You know, problems like… Who’s going to buy all the Treasuries that will be issued once the debt escalator agreement is signed?   Russia, China, India, and even Japan have balked at taking on any more Treasuries, and in fact have sold a ton of them previously…  Sounds to me like the U.S. is going to have buy their own bonds, monetize them if you will, and print the currency to pay for them, and then we get right back to where this all started… But, hey! Inflate or die… I would think the Fed Heads and Gov’t would choose to inflate… So… Got Gold? 
I don’t have much else to talk about today…   I’m dragging the line this morning, and I think it shows up in the letter whenever I’m like this…  
The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the ADP Employment Report, U.S. Productivity, the ISM Manufacturing Index, and the usual Thursday fare of Weekly Initial Jobless Claims… I think that all of these reports will be damaging to the dollar, but then I think logically, and not trader sentiment… 
To recap… The dollar got sold by a small amount yesterday, and then repeated in the overnight markets to start the day today down 4 index points from where it was yesterday morning..  The first “x” data is here… Seems like everything is working… I sure called Yellen’s bluff on that “x” data, didn’t I?  You bet I did! She’s a Gov’t hack, and bad one at that!  Gold gained $3 yesterday, and Chuck noted that he likes slow and steady…  
For What It’s Worth… I told you above that I had the great mind of Doug Casey for our FWIW section today, and he’s going to talk about things that are worse than the Great Financial Crisis that’s coming to a theater near you, and that can be found here: Doug Casey on the Bankruptcy of the US Government – International Man
Or, here’s your snippet:” Everyone knows that the US government is bankrupt and has been for many years.

Whenever the chattering classes talk about cuts, it’s only about cuts over the course of 10 years. Which is a dodge, a fraud. Partly because most of the supposed cuts will be scheduled for the end of the period, but also because new programs, new emergencies and hidden contingencies are guaranteed to creep in, offsetting any announced cuts. The anticipated $2 trillion deficit for 2024 isn’t a temporary worst case: it’s the rosiest possible scenario.
People thought I was joking when asked how bad the Greater Depression was going to be, I answered that it would be worse than even I thought it would be. But I haven’t been joking.
To sum up the situation, given its financial condition and the political forces working to worsen it, the US government is facing a completely impossible and irremediable situation.
The problems we face are one hundred percent caused by the US government – not by bankers or brokers, although they have been complicit.
Recall what government is: an organization with a monopoly of force within a certain geographical area. Its purpose is, ostensibly, to protect the inhabitants of its bailiwick from the initiation of force. That implies three functions: an army to protect against aggressors coming from outside of its borders, police to protect citizens from aggressors inside its borders and a court system to allow citizens to adjudicate disputes without resorting to force.

Assuming you’re going to have a government, it’s important to limit it strictly, lest it get completely out of control – it’s got a monopoly of force, after all – and overwhelm the society it’s supposed to protect.”

Chuck again… A pretty long article that really describes the mess we’re in, and where we are going, I hope I captured the best part for the snippet, but you should hit the link above and read the entire article…  A warning though, put away the sharp objects before reading… 
Market Prices 6/1/2023: American Style: A$ .6512, kiwi .6010, C$ .7374, euro 1.0691, sterling 1.2457, Swiss $1.0984, European Style: rand 19.7764, krone 11.1848, SEK 10.9017, forint 346.44, zloty 4.2498, koruna 22.1686, RUB 81.14, yen 139.71, sing 1.3529, HKD 7.8320, INR 82.57, China 7.1122, peso 17.61, BRL 5.0413, BBDXY 1,245.20, Dollar Index 104.18, Oil $68.24, 10-year 3.65%, Silver $23.54, Platinum $1,009.00, Palladium $1,404.00, Copper $3.70, and Gold… $1,961.50
That’s it for today… Well, I have some grilling to do today… Oldest son, Andrew, has his Water Polo team down here to play in a tournament and they will visit us today, and I will grilling hamburgers for 10 teenage boys… I think that will require a lot of time at the grill!  I remember when I was a teenager, and driving a teammate home, we came across a church that was having a picnic, and they were selling 5 hamburgers for a $1!   Well, my teammate and I proceeded to eat 5 hamburgers each!  The sun is out today… hopefully that will remain throughout the day for the boys to enjoy the ocean… The O’Jays take us to the finish line today with their great song: Back Stabbers… What they do? HA!  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a Fantastico Friday tomorrow, and will remember to Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

Escalator Going Up!

May 31, 2023

* Currencies get sold in the overnight markets

* Debt servicing costs, continue to rise! 

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you… well, my beloved Cardinals needed a superb, pitched game last night from their starter to eke out a win.. they completed 19 games in 19 days, and from what I could see the team was running on fumes… Now the Cardinals have an oddity in baseball, 2 days off! We’ve had some unsettled weather here down south this week, partly sunny days, with rain always knocking at the door… And the seaweed accumulation on the shore is crazy! And it just keeps coming in… UGH!  Today is the day the debt escalator agreement goes before Congress for a vote… while there might be some rogue lawmakers that stomp their feet and raise their collective fists in the air, protesting the agreement, it will be a rubber stamp, and then all the Kabuki theater will be over for another 2 years… Nazareth greets me this morning with their song: Holiday…
Well, the dollar buying was stopped for 1 day, with Friday’s flat day for the dollar… Yesterday morning, we were seeing some dollar selling, but that didn’t last too long, and by the day’s end, the dollar had rallied, as witnessed by the BBDXY gaining 2 index points on the day… The euro, which a few weeks ago, was flirting with the 1.10 handle, is about to give up the 1.07 handle, and that indicates to me that the dollar is once again overbought…  But, as we’ve seen in the last year, the dollar can extend the overbought position a lot longer than one would think it could… 
Gold started the day yesterday up $14, and ended the day up $16, to close the day at $1,960.30… And my hopes yesterday that Gold’s rally would pull Silver out of its funk, worked for the most part, as Silver was down 15-cents to start the day, came back during the day, and only ended down 1-cent, to close at $23.26  
The price of Oil got whacked again, so much for the Saudi’s warning to the short sellers, eh? Oil ended the day trading with a $69 handle… And someone, someplace, for some reason unknown to man, was buying the 10-year by the truck load, pushing the yield down to 3.68%… 
In the overnight markets last night… Well, don’t look now but the dollar is kicking tail and taking names later and starts today up 4 index points in the BBDXY… The euro has lost the 1.07 handle, and the rest of the currencies are all falling in line behind the euro’s losses… I haven’t put a finger on what all this dollar buying is about, but it quacks like a duck, walks like a duck, it has to be a duck… If it smells like PPT dollar buying, and walks like PPT dollar buying, then it must be PPT dollar buying… So, apparently the PPT hasn’t run out of cash in their Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF)… Gold & Silver are both basically flat this morning, but, if the dollar is getting bought like it is then it won’t be long before the short paper traders pile on and make life miserable for Gold & Silver today… So, what I’m telling you to do is to batten down the hatches, and don’t come out until the Good Witch Glinda tells us its ok again… 
The price of Oil has slipped further and trades this morning with a $67 handle… They talk around town is that Oil supplies are being replenished… I just want to make sure that everyone understands that the summer driving season hasn’t even come upon us yet… In a couple of weeks, families will pile into their suburban, and Tahoe, and whatever gas burning vehicle they own, and take off for the great American Road Trip…  that should take care of the supplies… I’m just saying… 
So… we’re down to the devil in the details of the debt escalator agreement get trashed around in Congress… But like I said above, it’ll get passed, and a new deficit spending budget will be in place…  We’ve already got $31.8 Trillion in debt on the books, and another $187 Trillion in what’s called “unfunded Liabilities”…   Think about all those baby boomers that are now seeing the tail end of their generation reaching retirement age…  Yes, I’m one of them, and darn proud to have made it this far! 
All this debt is going to choke off spending for “other things”, because the costs of servicing all this debt just keeps rising, and as long as the Fed Heads keep rates at these levels, the more the debt servicing costs (interest expense) will crowd out “other things” in the budget that used to get money allocated to it… While I don’t want to think about this thought, I’ll throw it out there anyway… Spending cuts could come to Social Security…  Talk about ticking off senior citizens!   
But those are the difficult decisions that the lawmakers will need to make in the near future… Bill Bonner said it best yesterday when he said: ” raising the debt ceiling isn’t a difficult decision… these lawmakers haven’t had to make a difficult decision, ever!”   And I agree with Bill on that!  I used to say every year when the debt escalator when higher yet again, that the lawmakers were kicking the can down the road…  And eventually, someone will have to pick up the can and throw it away, and that person will be blamed for the mess they incur…  You know how the younger folks all deal with stuff like this, right?  Hey! It’s not my fault!  
Bill also has me singing along yesterday when he highlighted the great Lovin’ Spoonful song: Did you Ever Have to Make up your Mind?  YouTube the song, and listen to the lyrics… They are talking about a girl, but it could be them talking about lawmakers having to finally decide! 
OK… So the short paper traders in Gold & Silver are still out there lurking, and waiting for the opportunity to bring down the prices of Gold & Silver once again… These guys always seem to go away for a while, and when they aren’t in the markets with their arms full of short paper trades, Gold & Silver rally and silly me, I aways seem to think that this time they won’t be impeded, only to be fooled once again…   But one of these days, Alice… to the moon! 
Yesterday, I had a nice conversation with a condo neighbor about the BRICS…  He was amazed that the BRICS have become so important so fast… I brought up that the BRICS have been around for about 10 years… I first announced their formation in the Pfennig many moons ago… I told you then, when I first wrote about the BRICS, that they would expand their membership, and that it would be the end of the dollar’s reserve status… eventually… not today, tomorrow, next week, or next year… Probably within the next 10 years… But by then folding dollars will not be in existence any longer, and who will care at that point? 
Well, the reopening of the Chinese economy, after being shut down for 2 years, hasn’t really helped the Chinese renminbi… The renminbi has dropped to 7.04 (European pricing, so as the number goes higher the less its value VS the dollar)… So, it was interesting to see this headline on Bloomberg.com that HSBC sees renminbi at 6.80 by year end… Do you know what I thought of when seeing that headline?  That HSBC, must be very long renminbi, and need to sell their position!   I say that, because, while China reopening is going along, it’s not without roadblocks, and setbacks… And nothing that will prompt the PBOC (Peoples Bank of China) to allow a strengthening of the currency to 6.80…  That’s my thought… kick around if you want… 
But… And you knew that there would be a But… if the Chinese renminbi is allowed to strengthen then the Singapore dollar will follow suit… I told you last week that the Sing dollar had reached an all-time high VS the Malaysian ringget, well, Singapore’s biggest competition for exports is China, so as I’ve explained many times in the past, the two countries won’t allow their respective currencies to stray too far from the other one, because of the competition for exports… 
So… here’s the play as I see it…  I would look to buy/ own Singapore dollars as a flier on the HSBC call…  But! Only if you believe the renminbi is due for a rally… 
I read a piece in the U.K. Telegraph that talked about how they (the British) were very disappointed with the debt escalator agreement was made… And I thought… Hmmm…  what’s up with that?  the U.K. has their own debt problems to deal with and don’t need to be sticking their noses in ours… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday, had the April Case/ Shiller Home Price Index (HPI)  and it showed a -1.1% drop in home prices in April… So… we’re seeing housing deflation, and food inflation… Oh boy, sign me up for more of that! NOT!  The stupid Consumer Confidence report for this month showed an increase in the index number…  I told you it was a misnomer to call it the Consumer Confidence, without adding “in the stock market”… 
The Data Cupboard for today is lacking at best… In essence, all we have for today, is 3 different Fed Heads speaking… 
To recap… Today’s the day that the debt escalator agreement gets voted on in Congress… Chuck thinks it’ll be a rubber stamp… Oh boy!  Our debt gets to go higher!   The dollar buying that ended last Friday, was a one and done with the dollar getting bought again yesterday…  Chuck talks about making the difficult decisions, and kicking the can down the road… And Gold got a chance to rally yesterday, without the short paper traders showing up… 
For What It’s Worth…. OK, i talked about the debt servicing costs rising above, and then I saw this article talking about that very thing, and thought it to be FWIW worthy!   This article can be found here:Update on US Government Holy-Moly Debt, Interest Expense, and Tax Receipts, and How they Stack Up Against GDP | Wolf Street 
Or, here’s your snippet: “US government interest expense shot up over the past four quarters in line with higher interest rates and the ballooning pile of debt. At the same time, tax revenues fell from the peak levels in 2022 and are back where they’d been in Q4 2021, which had been a record high at the time.

So, interest expense as percent of tax revenues – the primary measure of the burden of the national debt on government finances – spiked to 32.9% in Q1, from 19.3% in Q1 2022. But wait… that 19.3% a year ago had been the lowest since 1969, thanks to the Fed’s interest-rate repression through early 2022 and high tax revenues from the growing economy, wage inflation, and big realized capital gains as people sold assets to lock in their many years of gains.
In the 1980s, interest expense as a percent of tax receipts was around 50%. In the decades since then, Congress has been footloose and fancy-free about its spending and taxing policies, and there hasn’t been any discipline, no matter who runs the show. It’s just that priorities shift. A high interest-expense burden might be the only discipline left that will put some common sense into these people in Washington.
This is the holy-moly gross national debt, and how it ballooned under the last 2.5 years of the Trump administration and the first 2.5 years of the Biden Administration. Over that 5-year period, the debt has ballooned by $10.5 trillion, or by 50%, whereof $6.7 trillion under Trump and $3.8 trillion under Biden.

Over the days after the debt ceiling gets lifted, the gross national debt will spike in massive leaps, as it always does after the debt ceiling is lifted, because the debt ceiling never actually limits the debt.”

Chuck again…  Yes, and again I ask the question… Got Gold? 
Market Prices 5/31/ 2003: American Style: A$ .6076, kiwi .6004, C$ .7325, euro 1.0674, sterling 1.2364, Swiss $1.0982, European Style: rand 19.7656, krone 11.2515, SEK 10.9055, forint 347.54, zloty 4.2557, 
koruna 22.2319, RUB 81.07, yen 140.0260, sing 1.3550, HKD 7.8341,
INR 82.12, China 7.1007, peso 17.65, BRL 5.0365, BBDXY 1,2449.97, Dollar Index 104.57, Oil $67.75, 10-year 3.65%, Silver $23.25, Platinum $1,012.00, Palladium $1,394.00, Copper $3.66, and Gold… $1,957.25
That’s it for today… shorter than usual, but it is what it is…  There’s not much more to talk about, other than rehashing the debt escalator agreement… Well, this Friday, I’ll be heading to NW Arkansas for a family wedding on Saturday… And then back home on Sunday… No Pfennig next Tuesday, as I’ll be at the oncologist bright and early that morning…  No biggie, just bloodwork to see how my system is handling my new chemo…  I had a conversation with the nurse at the Chemo manufacturer, and I told her that I’m really dragging the line these days, falling asleep easily, during the day… I also told her that if that’s all I have to deal with, I’m good… Today, I start 1-week off the Chemo… 3 weeks on, 1 week off…  No baseball for me tonight, what will I do? Ahh, click on the MLB app and watch another game… C’Mon Chuck, get with the program, here!  The band, Missouri, takes us to the finish line today, with their great highway driving song: Movin’ On…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

Whoopee! Our Debt Has The Green Light To Go Higher!

May 30, 2023

* dollar buying ends on Friday… 

* Chuck explains The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel’s lies… 

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, how was your Memorial Day Weekend? Mine was OK… no family or friends around, no bar-be-queing, etc.  But I did take some time to think about all the soldiers that had given your lives for my freedom… Well, it sound like they finally got around to agreeing on a debt escalation… The vote still has to be done in Congress, and I’m not sure these knuckleheads have our best interests at heart… So, we’ll see what happens on Wednesday this week. Todd Rundgren greets me this morning with one of my fave songs of all time: Hello It’s Me… 
I don’t want to get into the debt escalation agreement this morning, other than to point out that there were some spending cuts agreed on by the POTUS… But these spending cuts aren’t the kind that would make the deficit lower, they are window dressing at best… There were some new requirements for food stamps and snap recipients…  But overall, it just means there is a pathway for our debt to continue to go higher, and higher… How high can it go before the weight of the debt collapses the financial status of the country?  Good question… It all depends on how long will the foreign countries continue to buy our debt?  From the looks of what’s going on right now, I would think that it won’t be much longer… I mean 5-10 years?  maybe even shorter… 
OK… Well the dollar buying ended on Friday, as traders, investors decided that it wasn’t such a good time to be loading up on dollars with a default on the table… There was no dollar selling either though… So, the traders, etc. weren’t fully convinced of a default… The BBDXY lost about 1 index point on the day, so for all intent and purpose, it was flat on the day…  And ended the week at 1,245…  Gold gained $5 on Friday, and at one point, the gain was much more, but, then it wasn’t… short paper traders showed up… need I say more?  Silver really shined on Friday, gaining 57-cents!  Silver had been the punching bag for the short paper traders for a month now, so it was nice to see it fight back… 
The price of Oil remained with a $74 handle through Friday, and the 10-year’s yield has risen to 3.81%!  I’m still trying to put my finger on what’s keeping yields so low? Yes, they’re rising right now, but they have been held down for so long that it leads me to believe that there is some entity that is buying bulk at times when yields begin to rise… you know someone like: JPMorgan, the NY Fed, and others… 
In the overnight markets last night…  the dollar was sold but not by large amounts with the BBDXY losing 2 index points to start the day today… Gold is up $14 to star the day today, and there are reports of short covering propelling Gold higher… I mentioned that last could happen last week, when I talked about Gold being so oversold… Silver, after kicking some tail on Friday, is starting the week getting sold again… Hopefully Gold can pull Silver out of this funk today.. 
The price of Oil has slid to a $71 handle… I guess all that talk last week about how the Saudis were warning the short sellers, turned out to be just that… jawboning… And the short sellers got together, and said, “Ok, just how is Saudi Arabia, going to stop us from shorting Oil?” Well, at least that’s how I see it happening…  The 10-year got bought overnight and the yield fell to 3.72%… Another huge chunk must have been bought, by someone?   
I have to wonder how all those traders and economists that were touting Japanese yen are feeling this morning, as they look at yen and see trading with a 140 handle… You can’t say I didn’t warn them that the BOJ always disappoints…  
They probably feel like I do, when it come to kiwi… The New Zealand Official Cash Rate is 5.5%, the highest rate in the industrialized world, and kiwi just keeps falling VS the dollar…  Talk about opposites…. 
You know, I’m not a fan of the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel… Never have been either… But more so recently, because of their lies and misdirection… Here’s the skinny folks… Inflation is the only way we, as a country, will ever pay down some of our debt, and the Fed Heads know this, but won’t admit it… So, what they do, is pretend that they are out to fight inflation, and then they jerry-rig the inflation reports that show that they are winning the battle with inflation , when in reality inflation is winning, but for the general consensus of people, they believe the Fed Heads are getting inflation down, and that all’s well…  It’s ALL A BIG LIE !    So, you go to the grocery store and you find that $100 of groceries fit in one bag, and you think, “well, this is better than it was last year!”   When in fact it’s not! You’re just rationalizing and believing what your hear on TV that the Fed Heads are winning…   
Inflate away the debt, well not all of it, but a small amount of it, so that it makes a difference… That’s the game, so don’t believe what you hear on TV, read in the paper, about how the Fed Heads are defeating inflation… 
And another lie going around is that the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel will begin to pivot this year and rates will be cut…  I just don’t see that happening…  But even IF it come to fruition, would it be enough to save the U.S. Corporations from filing bankruptcy?  I found this on Zerohedge.com: “One would not know it from looking at the S&P which just hit a 2023 high, but there is a bit of a bankruptcy crisis sweeping the U.S. where companies are filing for bankruptcy at the fastest pace in 13 years, in a clear sign of a tightening credit squeeze as interest rates rise and financial markets have locked out all but the strongest borrowers.

The increase is most visible among large companies, where there were 236 bankruptcy filings in the first four months of this year, more than double 2022 levels, and the fastest YTD pace since 2010 according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.”

Chuck again…  Now that’s some scary stuff, and would have me thinking that stocks are not the place to be going forward, but then I’ve said that for a couple of years now, and, well…  you know… 
Well, after all this time, the folks at the publishing house think they have a work around for responding to the Pfennig…  Here are the instructions: 
Hi Chuck,

We have been trying to fix the situation with your emails and have not been able to work it out… so, 
How about this?

When subscribers click on the email button right after the post, they will get this:
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In my case I click on gmail. then my gmail account opens up. So I fill out your email address, chuck.butler@dailypfennig.com, I include the subject and write up the message and click on send.  
I sure hope that works… it’s been some time now since I saw your responses to my writings… Of course, that could be good, or bad, but responses nonetheless! 
Remember when I told you that Janet Yellen was lying to us about how the country would implode on June 1? I said that they could search the seat cushions on the couches at the Eccles Bldg, and come up with a billion here, there, and soon they would have enough to carry on a few more days?   Well, I guess someone at the Treasury Dept reads the Pfennig, because a few days after I said that, Yellen came out and said that the new “x” data was June 5…  Lies, lies and more lies… The Gov’t just never gets tired of telling lies… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard’s datapalooza on Friday was interesting at best… Durable Goods was positive +1.1%, but that was down greatly from March’s 3.3% gain…  Personal Income was up .4%, and Personal Spending was up .8%… I didn’t see that Spending gain coming… Tax returns spending?   And the PCE inflation data year on year was up .2% to 4.4%…  
Today’s Data Cupboard just has the Case/ Shiller Home Price Index (HPI) for April… Oh the stupid Consumer Confidence report for this month will print also… I just don’t count this report as having anything to do with the economy, it’s simply a pulse of the stock market… 
To recap… the debt escalation agreement got sent to congress for a vote tomorrow… Chuck points out that the ballyhooed spending cuts , were nothing really…  But the big thing is that spending should be held down going forward, and that will play badly for GDP… I’m just saying… 
For What It’s Worth… This is an article that explains the debt escalator situation, and points out that the rating agency, Fitch, has already downgraded the U.S.’s outlook to negative… This is a good article for everyone to read, and understand what’s going on, and it can be found here: It’s Happening: Fisk Gives Slight Downgrade to US Credit – LewRockwell
Or, here’s your snippet: “My recent big prediction proved true this morning, which was that credit rating agencies will certainly not wait for an actual default on US debt before they start to downgrade US credit. Now, you might think that was an obvious prediction, but you didn’t hear many others warning about it; and US government officials certainly have not acted as if they realize that simple fact, nor said anything about it. So, it is an easy prediction that seems to elude almost everyone! And it is a BIG prediction because today’s news begins the downgrade process that will be devastating if it goes one step further. Today’s staunch credit warning from one of the nation’s big-three rating agencies puts our toes to the edge of the precipice.

This morning Fitch placed a negative outlook on US credit. Fitch did one other thing that was very interesting in light of my own earlier article this week. (See: “Debt Default is Just a Terror Tactic, but it Will Blow up Stocks and Likely a Lot More, Regardless.”) It became the first I’ve seen in mainstream media to admit that failure to raise the debt ceiling does not inevitably lead to a credit default, noting that a default would only happen if the US chose not to prioritize debt payments over other expenses. So, there it is. Someone has finally said it in the mainstream media, though it was entirely glossed over in article linked to in the headlines below.
All talk has been that if we get to Yellen’s X-day in June without a debt deal, then the US will plunge into default, and its credit will be downgraded. The blindness there is nothing short of astounding. Credit agencies won’t even wait for (as I call it) D-day (debt-day) — the day when the Treasury is exhausted just before default or other expense-cutting options that are also being ignored by all. A serious downgrade will certainly happen before default and likely before D-day, even though default does not have to happen even if the ceiling is not lifted. In part, that will be because no one even knows when D-day is. June 1st? June 15th? Credit agencies are not going to sit around and wait to find out.
Nevertheless, back in Washington, Democrats continue to pound the credit default issue, as if that is the only path they can imagine themselves taking if the debt ceiling is not raised; and Republicans, oddly, continue to let them make that message without any rebuttal. Apparently, both sides continue want to raise the worst-case scenario as the only scenario, both willing to put the nation at risk of economic wreckage if they fail to win their battle over the budget by turning this into an ultimatum that sees no outcome to an agreement failure other than default. Even though another outcome, even without agreement to raise the debt ceiling, is easy to see.

Here is one major part of what they all don’t get, as I wrote in my own article referenced above: No matter which way the debt ceiling argument breaks now that it has been dragged out for months, the news is bad for stocks. Finally, today, one market analyst pointed that out, making the same case I did. If the ceiling is raised, a flood of new Treasuries will be issued, pushing up Treasury interest rates up in a situation where the Fed is no longer buying. Bad for stocks. If the ceiling is not raised, US credit will see significant downgrades because, even Fitch notes that it cannot be sure the government will not choose the path of default over not paying other expenses. It doesn’t matter, at that point, if the US doesn’t actually default; the very fact that lawmakers and the Biden admin hit D-day without a deal will prove how reckless with credit they are willing to be and will cause significant credit downgrades because no one trusts reckless managers.”

Chuck again… Deficits don’t matter, right Dick Cheney? Well they do when they have accumulated to $31 Trillion! I thank longtime reader Bob, for sending me this article… 
Market Prices 5/30/2023: American Style: A$ .6542, kiwi .6052, C$ .7464, euro 1.0731, sterling 1.2421, Swiss $1.1089, European Style: rand 19.7229, krone 11.0851, SEK 10.8400, forint 345.34, zloty 4.2198, koruna 22.2079, RUB 80.76, yen 140.25, sing 1.3573, HKD 7.8326, INR 82.69, China 7.0752, peso 17.56, BRL 5.0194, BBDXY 1,243.11, Dollar Index 104.50, Oil $71.32, 10-year 3.72%, Silver $23.26, Platinum $1.035.00, Palladium $1,443.00, Copper $3.67, and Gold… $1,955.00
That’s it for today… only 2 more days of May… Then June will come busting out all over!  The ocean is quite calm today… We’ve seen a ton of seaweed coming in these past few days… My beloved Cardinals are still stumbling around, but seemed to be getting better, inch by inch… And then nearly got no-hit yesterday! UGH!  Our STL City SC won their game on Saturday night… They were outplayed for most of the game, but their counterattack burned the Vancouver team…  The City SC team has the best goalie in the league, for sure!  The Main Ingredient takes us to the finish line today with their song: Everybody Plays The Fool…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

RBNZ Moves To The Front Of The Class…

May 25, 2023

* currencies & metals get sold on Wednesday

* FOMC minutes tell us…. NOTHING! 

Good day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all… My good friend, Rick said it best last night… “Just when we thought the Cardinals had turned the page, along comes Matz” Yes, proving once again that Stephen Matz, was a horrible free agent signing last year, he went out and laid another egg last night, leading to a loss by my beloved Cardinals to the Reds… UGH! Good friend, and former colleague, Suzanne, sent me a text last night, to remind me that she’s a Reds fan…  What a rain filled day here yesterday… Some sun, so they can count it as a day with sun, but most of the day was rain filled…  RIP Tina Turner… We lost Tina Turner yesterday, she was 83, and still dancing… The Hooters greet me this morning with their 80’s song: All You Zombies… 
The FOMC Meeting Minutes, were controversial yesterday, in that on one hand, several regions talked about how they weren’t sure interest rates needed to go higher, while on the other hand, there was no, none, nil, nada mention any rate cuts this year…   The markets have come full circle with their forecasts for rate hikes/ cuts… In the futures trading, 43% chance of another 25-bps rate hike by July, while just last week rate cuts were expected to begin in July… 

The dollar bugs decided that all this confusion was good for the dollar, and the dollar got bought hand over fist yet again yesterday… The BBDXY gained 3 index points on the day, ending the day at 1,244…  The currencies didn’t move much in response, to all the dollar strength, though, another strange day in the currencies…  The price manipulators saw the FOMC Minutes, and decided that it was a good day to short Gold & Silver, and short them they did… Gold lost $18.20 to end the day at $1,958.50, and Silver lost 39-cents to end the day at $23.13…  Apparently, last Friday’s gains in Gold & Silver were a false dawn… I’m at a loss for words to describe how fed up I am with the short paper traders… 
The price of Oil briefly dipped below $74 yesterday, but then rallied back over the $74 figure to end the day. And you think everyone is confused with the FOMC Minutes? well, everyone but the bond boys… The 10-year’s yield rose to 3.76% yesterday… 
In the overnight markets last night…. The dollar got bought some more… This is really getting out of hand, folks… Overbought, and overbought some more… The BBDXY gained 2 more index points overnight, and the euro is taking the brunt of the dollar strength. Gold is up $4 to start the day today… But Silver has slipped below $23 in the early trading. Poor Silver, it just can’t find a bid these days… The price of Oil slipped by $2 in the past 24 hours, and the 10-year is at 3.68% to start the day today… 
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), hiked their Official Cash Rate 25 Basis Points to 5.50% on Tuesday this week… I forgot to mention it yesterday…  This from the RBNZ: “The Committee agreed the level of interest rates are constraining spending and inflation pressure. The OCR will need to remain at a restrictive level for the foreseeable future, to ensure that consumer price inflation returns to the 1-3% annual target range, while supporting maximum sustainable employment.”
And now having the highest interest rate of the industrialized nations, one would think that kiwi would be on the rally tracks… But, that would have been a blast from the past, the way fundamentals ruled, and interest rate differentials were HUGE in fundamentals!  Those were the days my friend, we thought they’d never end, we’d sing and dance, forever and a day… (Mary Hopkins)  
The RBNZ has told the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, I’ll see your 25 Basis Points, and raise you 25 Basis Points…  And have moved to the front of the class, in regards to interest rate differentials…  I guess when the Fed Heads meet again on June 14, we’ll find out what they have up their sleeve, and if they have something up their collective sleeves, ala Bullwinkle, then it will be nothing!  I’ve come to his point in time, where I do believe that whatever the Fed Heads do or don’t do, it’ll be the wrong thing to do… 
The debt escalator talks continue…  So, I had this thought the other day… And no it’s not political, although it does involve the POTUS…  It is my opinion, that the Elites through the POTUS,  wants to bring the U.S. economy to its knees, so that he can introduce digital currencies, and collectivism finances… So, what if the POTUS isn’t really trying to negotiate an agreement, because a default would play into the elites plans… This is just how I see things… I guess that it’s times like this that I’m glad the Pfennig Replies doesn’t work!  For I know that you can only please 1/2 the people 1/2 the time, and the other 1/2 are going to hate you!  So, please don’t hate me, just because I have an opinion that opposes your opinion… Disagreements are good for conversations as long as they remain civil… 
OK, moving on…  I guess 1 month out on the Treasury yield curve is the place to be… A 1 month T-Bill is yielding 5.83% this morning…  The 10-year Treasury Bond yields 3.68%…  Talk about an inverted yield curve! The problem with a 1 month T-Bill, is that it matures in 30 days, and then you have to put your money someplace else. Sure, you could roll it into another 1 month T-Bill, but who knows what the yield will be 30 days from now?  It could be greatly reduced from buying after the debt escalator talks come to an agreement, or… it could be 10% ( I exaggerate!) from all the selling after the debt escalator talks fail to reach an agreement… But for now, you can’t beat 5.83% in a 1 month T Bill!   Sign me up for a tuck load of those please! Shoot Rudy, 30 days from now I may not even still be around, for no one knows! So, live it up while you can!  Yes, may I have another 5.83% yield for 30 days?   
And the one currency with a gain in the past 24 hours is the Russian ruble… I know, I know, the Russians are the dark side, but the currency is an investment… And you must keep the two things separate…  I’m just saying… 
And we’ve got to keep our eye on the Singapore dollar… After 5 consecutive tightenings by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) the Sing dollar is perking up, and recently reached an all-time high VS the Indonesian ringgit… I know that’s not VS the U.S. dollar, but, when you have these regional currencies, they have to be dominant in their region before they can move VS the dollar… 
And the British pound sterling has lost its luster (remember I told you it would) as inflation in the U.K. is becoming embedded… Headline CPI printed 8.7% in April, higher than any of the 36 estimates from economists or the 8.4% reading forecast by the central bank. Core prices excluding food, energy and tobacco accelerated to 6.8% last month from 6.2% in March. And this is really weighing on poun sterling… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the aforementioned FOMC Meeting Minutes, and a couple of Fed Head speakers out on the road… One Fed Head said that he wasn’t comfortable pausing rate hikes as long as inflation isn’t under control…  So, we have that going for us, that is, as long as the Fed Head is a voting member! HA! 
Today’s Cupboard has the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims for last week, and that’s about it for today, but like I said yesterday, tomorrow is a datapalooza… So, you won’t want to have missed that! HA! 
To recap… The RBNZ hiked rates to the highest level among industrialized nations this week, and kiwi can’t find a bid… go figure! The dollar continues to get bought, and this is really becoming an overbought situation… 
For What It’s Worth…. Well, this article come to me from MarketWatch, and while I had it all cued up to be the FWIW article today, Ed Steer then highlighted it in his daily letter this morning, and that solidfied my thought that this is FWIW worthy!  It’s about how investors should switch to Gold from stocks, and it can be found here: Investors should put more money in gold and cash as rally in stocks won’t last, top JPMorgan analyst says – MarketWatch
Or, here’s your snippet: “A top JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst who has been warning clients to stay away from stocks all year is doubling down and advising them to increase their allocations to cash and gold.

JPMorgan Chief Global Markets Strategist Marko Kolanovic advised clients to modestly reduce their exposure to U.S. stocks and corporate debt and up their holdings of cash and short-dated Treasury bills that carry yields north of 5%.
“Even aside from the debt ceiling issue, we maintain that the risk-reward for equities is poor given elevated risk of recession, stretched valuations, high rates and tightening liquidity, and we favor cash over equities at the former’s ~5% yields,” a team led by Kolanovic said in a note shared with MarketWatch.
Kolanovic and his team also recommended traders shift exposure away from crude oil, which has sunk this year on recession fears, and buy more gold, which has rallied since late last year, although it has reversed some of its year-to-date gains over the past few weeks.
Within commodities, we rotate from energy (given recession risks and a potentially fading China growth impulse), to gold following its recent selloff (on its safe-haven demand and as a debt ceiling hedge),” the analysts said.”
Chuck again… While I agree with him on the Gold, but not the Oil position he’s taken… I still believe in Oil, and will continue to do so… 
Market Prices 5/25/2003: American Style: A$ .6521, kiwi .6070, C$ .7349, euro 1.0725, sterling 1.2362, Swiss $1.1038, European Style: rand 19.3383, krone 10.9873, SEK 10.7844, forint 347.38, zloty 4.2037, koruna 22.0293, RUB 79.98, yen 137.60, sing 1.3532, HKD 7.8322, INR 82.74, China 7.0694, peso 17.78, BRL 4.9588, BBDXY 1,246.10, Dollar Index 104.09, OIl $72.84, 10-year 3.68%, Silver $22.97, Platinum $1,026.00, Palladium $1,403.00, Copper $3.59, and Gold… $1,962.42
That’s it for today, and this week of course! The sun is out, and it’s going to be a beautiful day today, I can feel it in my bones! Our STL City SC team will be back on the pitch Saturday night… Hopefully they can follow up last week’s 4-0 win with another strong game. Sleeping at night is becoming an ordeal for me, and then with the lack of sleep at night, I get tired and have to take a nap during the day… It’s a pattern that I’d like to stop soon!  Jethro Tull takes us to the finish line today with their song: Locomotive Breath…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a Fantastico Friday tomorrow, and please, oh please with sugar on top, Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

The Dollar Buying Continues…

May 24, 2023

* currencies & metals get sold on Tuesday… 

* Isn’t there a shortage of Copper? 

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! No problems in traveling yesterday, other than having to get up to go to the airport at zero dark thirty… Thanks to our friend, Lynn, for driving us to the airport at that ungodly time of the early morning… I said to Kathy, “one good thing about going this early, there’s no traffic!” I then realized that this was the time that I used to get up and go to work, back in the day… Yes, I was nuts! But, by going so early, I could write the Pfennig, and still be ready to trade when the trading bell rung… England Dan, and John Ford Coley, greet me this morning with their song: Nights Are Forever Without You… 
Well, the markets are still disillusioned about everything going on in the U.S. and are still buying dollars… The dollar got bought yesterday, with the BBDXY adding 3 index points, to follow up the 2 index points it gained on Monday, this week… The euro has lost the 1.08 handle, and the rest of the currencies all look very weak, compared with their levels of just two weeks ago… Here’s an anecdote about the U.S. economy… Yesterday, the first lef of our flight had only 65 passengers… That’s the first flight I’ve taken in many years, that wasn’t maxed out with people… Something strange is going on here, and the disposable income that people had has been all spent…  And the reason that’s a Big Deal? Well without consumer consumption, GDP is dependent on Gov’t spending… And we all know that the Gov’t spending, right now,  not what it used to be, because they have maxed out their spending… That’s why we have the Kubuki Theater going on with the debt escalator talks… 
For those of you new to class or skipped to play horse hooky or something like that… I don’t reefer to the current drama as the debt ceiling… I call it the debt escalator, because it only goes up! 
Gold & Silver are still having to scratch and claw for every bid so far this week…  I thought after Friday’s $20 gain in Gold that the Good Witch, Glinda, had given us the “Ok to come back out” sign… And while Gold is up for the week, it’s been a tough row to hoe…  Gold gained $3.90 yesterday, to close at $1,976, while Silver lost 20-cents on the day, to end the day at $23.53…  
The price of Oil jumped higher by $2 and trades this morning with a $73 handle. And the 10-year’s yield touched 3.70% yesterday, but settled in to close at 3.69%…  I think the bond boys see the writing on the wall with the U.S. economy, but that’s one thing you can’t count on, because bonds have been so wishy-washy lately, that you can’t really get an indication of where they are going… 
In the overnight markets last night…  the dollar buying continued, with the BBDXY gaining another index point to start the day today… What’s all this dollar buying about? Right now, the dollar is so overbought, that a short squeeze has probably occurred… When an asset is in an overbought position, the risk is that everyone heads for the exit door at the same time… We’ll have to watch for that.  The price of Gold is up $1 buck this morning, and Silver is getting sold by 15-cents to start the day. The price manipulators just keep making Gold & Silver cheaper and cheaper, thus giving all those procrastinators the opportunity to finally get off their duffs and buy some physical Gold or Silver… I saw the percentage number last week, of how many households in the U.S. actually own some physical Gold or Silver, and I said to myself… “now that’s a number you won’t forget, Chuck, so no need to write it down”… And guess what happened? I forgot the number!  Oh, these senior moments just drive me crazy! Any way, it was a very low number… 
The price of Oil has bumped higher to a $74 handle…  You know, ever since the Saudi’s announced that they were going to wage war on speculators that were shorting Oil, it’s been on the move upward…  And the 10-year is trading with a 3.68% yield this morning… 
Well, another crypto clearing Corp has its hairs in the crossfires… This from Reuters: “The world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, commingled customer funds with company revenue in 2020 and 2021, in breach of US financial rules that require customer money to be kept separate, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.”  
Chuck again… it seems these crypto clearing corps can’t keep their hands out of the cookie jar…  And if you are one of the investors that have your funds with them, doesn’t that give you a warm and fuzzy that your funds are safe? Right! They aren’t safe, they are being used to fund who knows what! 
Things are getting out of control finances-wise… I pulled this from Twitter yesterday:
1. Median Mortgage Payment: $2,800

2. Median Rent Price: $1,850
It now costs nearly $1,000/month more to buy a house than to rent.
Meanwhile, the average new car payment is now at $750/month.
The average interest rate on a used car loan just hit a record 14%.
All while credit card debt is set to cross $1 trillion for the first time ever with record interest rates of 25%.

Basic necessities are becoming unaffordable for Americans.

OMG! how do the young folks make it from paycheck to paycheck? I don’t mean just the young folks, but at my age, everyone buying homes, and cars, etc. are younger than me!  Could it be that this younger generation is depending on mom for their house payment, or rent, and the car payment, all the while they have the latest iPhone, eat out all the time, and travel…   makes sense to me, given that these parents of the younger generation, have provided everything for their kids, and not made them go out on their own, and earn a living, career, life… 
Sorry, to go down that rabbit hole, folks, just needed to get that off my chest… 
Remember when I told you about all those folks that were buying Japanese yen, with the thought that the new Bank of Japan chairman would change the monetary policy in Japan, and I said that they should be aware of the fact that the BOJ has continually disappointed the markets… Well, how are those yen buys looking these days? I’m just pointing out their stupidity for not researching and doing the history on a currency and its Central Bank before jumping in with both feet… 
And don’t look now but the price of Copper has fallen out of bed, which leads me to believe that someone, somewhere is shorting the hell out of Copper… I say that because I’ve shown you all the reports of a Copper shortage that is going to occur soon, and that should be pushing the price of Copper higher, not lower… Darn short paper traders… Have I told you lately how much I dislike these guys/ gals? I have? Then good, because they should never be invited to dinner for all the damage they’ve caused in the metals…  I’m just saying! 
Ok, in news that has been held back and not distributed widely… We have 3 continents that have volcanoes erupting… Does that mean anything to anyone? Active volcanoes have prompted ash warnings and set nerves on edge in Italy, Mexico and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Could this be? … nah… don’t go there Chuck, that’s all myths and here say… 
OK, moving on… The U.S. Data Cupboard today, just has the FOMC Meeting Minutes. There’s nothing that should surprise the markets in the minutes, so in reality, there’s no real data to move the markets today… And tomorrow, we’ll see the 1st revision of quarter 1 GDP… And then Friday, will be a datapalooza! Big movers potentially on Friday, so grab a chair and sit back and watch… 
To recap… The dollar continues to defy the odds, and get bought daily… The dollar bugs are really just ignoring all the things mounting up against dollar strength, but I say, go on… have your days… but you’ll be stuck holding dollars that are getting sold like funnel cakes at a State Fair…. I hope you get your rear ends handed to you! 
For What It’s Worth…  Those dastardly banks… Not all banks, but the casino banks… This article came to me from the good folks at GATA, and its from a BBC story of banks that rigged interest rates, and it can be found here: Interest rate ‘rigging’ evidence ‘covered up’ by banks – BBC News
Or, here’s your snippet: “UK and US regulators were told of a state-led drive to “rig” interest rates in the 2008 financial crisis, but covered it up, evidence indicates.

Documents suggest lenders sharply dropped their interest-rate estimates after pressure from central banks.
Evidence was not shown to juries at the time when bankers were jailed for smaller-scale interest-rate “rigging”.
Regulators said they had followed disclosure rules, declined to comment or in one case rebutted the claims.
Some evidence has previously emerged of Bank of England and UK government involvement in manipulation of interest rates. But the evidence indicating it was part of a broader, international drive not just by the UK but by central banks across the western world to push key interest rates down in October 2008 has never been published before.
The evidence indicates that in October 2008, central banks including the Bank of England, the Banque de France, the European Central Bank, Banca d’Italia, Banco de Espana and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York intervened on a large scale in the setting of Libor and Euribor.

At the height of the 2008 financial crisis, when bank lending had almost ground to a halt, central banks around the world urged calm. But my investigation reveals evidence that, behind the scenes, they were pulling levers to restore calm artificially – measures which would later be ruled to be against the law in the UK.”

Chuck again… need I say more about the casino banks?  And wait until you see what good friend, Dennis Miller, has in his www.milleronthemoney.com letter next week, about the derivatives these casino banks have… AYE, AYE, AYE…. 
Market Prices 5/24/2023: American Style: A$ .6598, kiwi .6165, C$ .7407, euro 1.0786, sterling 1.2456, Swiss $1.1102, European Style: rand 19.1855, krone 10.9450, SEK 10.6071, forint 347.93, zloty 4.1560, koruna 21.9754, RUB 80.10, yen 138.32, sing 1.3457, HKD 7.8360, INR 82.69, China 7.0329, peso 17.96, BRL 4.9726, BBDXY 1,242.73, Dollar Index 103.75, Oil $74.12, 10-year 3.68%, Silver $23.28, Platinum $1,039.00, Palladium $1,430.00, Copper $3.59, and Gold… $1,976.52
That’s it for today… Back in the saddle down south for a few days… But the weather forecast for the coming week is rain every day… UGH!.. Oh well, I sat out on the balcony and watched the Cardinals win their game VS the Reds last night, with the ocean in the background… As Eric Clapton sang: Let It Rain… I love to watch the rain storms out on the ocean… Everything was just fine when we arrived, no problems, no fix its that needed to be done, now that’s what I call convenient!  And the car started! without assistance from AAA!  So, it’s all good down here in the South… Cardinals won last night, after losing in 10 innings on Monday night… They shoudn’t have lost that game on Monday, and it was a hiccup toward their goal getting back in the pennant race… Eric Burdon and the Animals take us to the finish line today, with their song: We Gotta Get Outta This Place… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler