Author: admin

April 9, 2020

* Currencies are flat for the most part on Wednesday

* Gold was flat too, but is up $15 in the early trading this morning! 

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to you! Brother was it hot here yesterday…. A record temp of 91 was the high on the day… And then a cold front moved through last night, and we’ll be lucky to hit 60 today…. But boy did that 90 degrees feel good on my bones…. The problem was that you can only sit out for so long…. I was reading a book outside, and when it got tooI  hot, I went inside, sat down in my recliner, and fell asleep! When I awoke, Kathy has turned the A/C on, and I was freezing! I have to give kudos to my wife, she’s been busy making masks, for medical workers, or just people that feel better having them on while around other people…. That and we had the cover removed from our pool (the earliest in the year we’ve ever done that!) and it’ll take a few days for it to be clean to swim in… By then the temps will be back to chilly…. UGH!… Oh well, we’ll be ready when the warm weather turns hot! The Rolling Stones greet me this morning with their song: Bitch, one of my faves by them!

OK… Well, the currencies just drifted along for the most part yesterday…. There is one currency though that is defying the odds and rallying lately, and that is the Aussie dollar (A$)…. A couple of weeks ago the A$ was trading with a 59-cent handle and looking to get weaker, but then China printed that, questionable at best in my opinion, stronger than expected PMI, and suddenly, traders changed their sentiment toward A$’s…. This morning the A$ is well into the 62-cent handle… So bully for the A$!

The Russian ruble has turned around too…. But is still very cheap given their strong fundamentals… There aren’t too many currencies, right now, that I can say that about!

Gold was pretty much flat on the day…. Which seems strange, given all the unknowns out there…. But Every time I go to Twitter or YOUTUBE you don’t have to look for too long before finding an article or video by someone touting the prospects for Gold…. If everyone would stop talking about it and put up some cash to buy it, the Gold price would be better off!…. My dad used to say to me, “Chuck, money talks, and Bull sh*** walks”…. I truly believe that statement and have always thought about it when things like this arise….

And Gold which drifted at best yesterday, down a buck or two on the day is up $15 in the early morning trading…. so this could be a good day for the shiny metal, eh? 

OK…. I have no idea what’s going on here, but…. I keep getting questions in the PRB asking me the best way to buy physical Gold…. Really? Where have you been? Ok, so you missed class the other 12 times I wrote about this? This won’t be the last time, but…. It should be!

The best affordable, convenient way to buy and hold physical Gold or Silver, is in what’s called an “non-allocated account” or Pooled Gold/ Silver…. I suggest that you call Tim Smith @1-800-926-4922, tell him I told you to call, and he or any of his compadres will explain the product, how to open an account, what the costs are, etc. So, please write down that phone number in case you decide at a later date to buy some Gold / Silver!

And again…. I do this for you out of the goodness of my heart…. I’m not paid one wooden nickel for recommending this program or Tim…. So, where else do you get free newsletter with free recommendations? Only here, at the home of A Pfennig For Your Thoughts!

I had someone write me yesterday, ask me why I never talked about cryptocurrency…. Oh brother! Another person that missed class! Basically, cryptocurrency is not a “currency” it’s a device to control you, period! When your life savings can be stolen from your laptop where your cryptocurrency is stored, I don’t see that as something that we need…. Besides, all these cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin, will not be around in the future, because I truly believe the Gov’t will be issuing their own digital currency in the future…. I first wrote about this in the Currency Capitalist, and then again in the Dow Theory Letters, and of course here…. My good friend Dennis Miller and collaborated on an article regarding this cashless society, that’s coming to a theater near you, soon! You won’t want to miss it, and in case you think you did, check out: www.milleronthemoney.com

I had a message come my way last night from a dear reader that wanted to know what would keep Mr. Trump from pulling an FDR and confiscating individual’s Gold? Well, besides people marching on Washington D.C. with pitchforks and shovels… I guess it could be done…. But the main difference between then and now, is that the U.S. needed the Gold to print more debt/ dollars…. These days the Fed just fires up the IMAC and voila, more dollars and debt are created!

The thing I think the countries of the world that hold their physical Gold here in the U.S. should be worried about is this….. What if, the price reset in Gold is made and the U.S. decides to confiscate all the foreign Gold and make it their own? Now, that’s something to worry about, if I’m Germany, and France, and whomever else has Gold stored here…. The U.S. could say that they were taking the Gold reserves over, and unless you want to go to war with us, you can’t do a thing about it!

Now there’s some food for though, eh? I’m sure there’s a lawyer out there that will give me 10 reasons why that can’t happen, and I’ll just respond…. “possession is 90% of the law”, neener, neener, neener….

And I’m sure there were lawyers back in the days of FDR that told him of the 10 reasons why he couldn’t confiscate people’s Gold…. Did that stop him? Would it stop Trump? Or whomever is the President at the time….

The Central Bank measures just keep coming folks…. Earlier this week the Reserve Bank of New Zealand  (RBNZ) introduced a new financial measure to buy bad loans…. Remember a week or so ago, when I told you that the RBNZ Gov. had said that the New Zealand economy was strong? Really, now…. But then your Central Bank the one you run, keeps coming out with new measures that wouldn’t be needed if the economy was really…. Strong! Hey, I was born in spring, just not this last spring! 

OK… I watch a video last night sent to me by a longtime reader, Linda, and asked me to give her my thoughts on it…. Basically it was a woman who used to be in the White House, (Catherine Fitts) talking about how this current virus is what she calls a “Plandemic” She talks about how at the end of 2019, all we were hearing about were the dollar destabilization crowd, talking about the ending of the dollar as the reserve currency, and then a month later,, everyone has forgotten about that, and instead have a “plandemic” to deal with…. Do you believe in coincidences? I don’t… but sometimes things can get very eerily close, right? Now, I’m not saying this is for real, what I’m saying is things are just too eerily close right now….

Then I watched a video interview with Doug Casey…. Now everyone knows Doug Casey, right? In San Diego a few years ago, I sat on a patio puffing on cigars with Doug, talking about the world…. Well, last night Doug went out of his way to say that he absolutely was shocked at the reaction of world leaders to this virus…. He, like me, questions the shutting down of the economy, and how the reaction to this is going to cause a great depression…. Now, for the most part, through the years, when Doug Casey talks, people listen…. I sure hope the Gov’t is listening to him now….

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday, finally printed the Feb. Consumer Credit (read debt), and it soared in Feb from $12Billion in January (you know the month when people get their credit card bills for their Christmas expenditures and pay them down) to $22 Billion in February! WOW!…. OK, just like all the other data from this time, it was before the COVID-19 virus hit our shores, and can you imagine how much this will shrink in March?

Someone asked me the other day about my call that we’re going to see soring inflation in the near future….. Well… basically I see the Fed printing dollars by the truck load, cutting rates to zero, and probably to negative soon enough, I see so many dollars chasing so few goods, since the economy has been shut down, And a Central Bank that not only needs but wants higher inflation in the worst way…. They need inflation to help with the debt, folks. It’s beyond unsustainable, in my opinion…

So, there you have it…. But what I failed to tell you is that first we’re going to see a short-lived bout of deflation, which will send the Fed Heads reeling and wanting to cut rates even more…. And that’s when the inflation spiral begins….

But will the Fed be in any position at that time to slow down the spiraling inflation? No! All they have is to shut off the money supply spigot, and hike rates…. And doing that at this time would be akin to throwing gas on a fire in hopes of putting it out!

This has been a week of dull, sometimes non-existent, economic data from the Data Cupboard, and today just doesn’t change that one iota! We will see the Producer Price Index (PPI)  (wholesale inflation) for March, which will be negative, I’m sure, and the Consumer Sentiment for the first week of this month, which won’t be good, you can bet your sweet bippie on that!  

And we end this dull week for data with the stupid CPI (consumer inflation) for March, tomorrow… What a “nothing” week for data! Oh, that’s right we had the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Minutes yesterday, and I have those for you in the FWIW section today!  Man, this guy that writes this letter just keeps giving people food for thought! HA!

To recap…. The currencies were pretty flat yesterday, with the A$ and rubles the only currencies with some real attention…  Gold was also flat to down a buck or two yesterday, but is up $15 this morning….  Chuck has really been fielding the questions in the PRB here in the Pfennig so everyone can read what his thoughts are…. And today we talk about Gold confiscation, who should be worrying, and spoiler alert, it’s not U.S. citizens!

And before I head to the Big Finish today…. I have this for you….Well…. I thought this line from a dear reader yesterday was very funny…. He said, “after this quarantine is over, ½ of the people will be excellent cooks, and the other ½ will have a drinking problem” HAHAHAHAHAHAHA….. Yes, I’ve noticed that I continue to have my 4 o’clock Happy Hour that started when I was down in Florida, and I would go out on the deck for some late afternoon sun, watch the ocean, and have a cold one…. I now go outside for late afternoon sun, watch the pool water, and have a cold one! Some things never change…. HA!  

For What It’s Worth….  Ok, I gave you a strong hint above as to what’s in today’s FWIW section…. It’s a recap of the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Minutes from my friends at MarketWatch…. and it can be found here: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-staffs-worst-case-scenario-no-recovery-until-next-year-2020-04-08

Or, here’s your snippet: “The Federal Reserve staff’s worst-case scenario for the economy is no recovery until next year, according to minutes of the central bank’s two policy meetings in early March, released Wednesday.
The staff economists told officials that there were two plausible scenarios for the U.S. economy grappling with the coronavirus outbreak. In one scenario, the U.S. economy would start to recover in the second half of the year. The more adverse scenario was an economic recovery “much slower to take hold and not materially under way until next year.” Under both scenarios, inflation moves lower.

Facing this uncertainty, Fed officials responded by slashing interest rates to zero and launching open-ended purchases of Treasury and asset-backed securities. Supporters of the full percentage-point cut on March 15 called it “forceful.” It brought the Fed funds rate to a range of 0% to 0.25% because the Fed had already cut rates by a half-point on March 3.
In the March 15 meeting, a “few” officials wanted to cut rates only by a smaller half-point, the minutes show. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester eventually voted against the decision for the larger cut.

During the discussion of the cut, several officials said they were worried the public would think the central bank would be out of ammunition with its benchmark rate essentially at zero. But some officials told their colleagues the Fed had other tools — using forward guidance or the Fed’s balance sheet — to ease monetary policy further. There was also a concern that the action might foster investor expectations of negative policy rates.”

Chuck again…. Really? Well, I’m going to throw my hat into the ring that says the recover doesn’t come until next year, but I’m not buying the low inflation thing…. 

Currencies today 4/9/20 American Style: A$.6231, kiwi .6005, C$ .7125, euro 1.0861, sterling 1.2421, Swiss $1.0295, European Style: rand 18.0438, krone 10.2572, SEK 10.0705, forint 326.12, zloty 4.1852,   koruna 24.7468, RUB 75.36, yen 108.85, sing 1.4338, HKD 7.7528, INR 75.86, China 7.0605, peso 23.83, BRL 5.1935, Dollar Index 100.10,  Oil $27.31,   10-year .73%, Silver $15.19, Platinum $735.85, Palladium $2,184.48, and Gold… $1,660.99

That’s it for today and this week…. Tomorrow is Good Friday, and Sunday is Easter, for those of us who celebrate that….  The Greeks celebrate Easter a week later… This will be an Easter that will be like no other that came before this year… I’ll miss stealing some chocolate candy from the kids’ Easter baskets! Saturday marks two weeks since we came home, we self quarantined because of our drive back and the stay in the hotel in Paducah….  I’m still here! My new chemo gets delivered to me today….  This has been a real fight for me and the young lady in the prescriptions dept. of my oncologist’s office….  Part of the problem was that there was no one in office at the Pharmacy to make a call!  Well, anyway, I get to stop partying like it’s 1999 tomorrow, when I take the first dose…. UGH!  OK the Stealers Wheel takes us to the finish line today with their song: Stuck In The Middle With You…..  Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right…. Here I am, stuck in the middle with you!   I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a very blessed Easter on Sunday, should that be your bag…. Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

 

 

April 8, 2020

* Currencies don’t give back their gains on Tuesday… 

* Chuck does Gold 101….  Any questions? 

Good day…. And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I read the news yesterday that MLB is considering opening the baseball season in Arizona before empty stadiums…. That’s not going to satisfy me! What on earth is MLB attempting to do here? Baseball will help heal the country ,when its safe for fans to attend games again, period, and not a moment before! I also read where in China they’re starting their baseball season without fans, but in one stadium they’ll have 500 robots dressed as fans to play for…. I just don’t get it…. Stupid! If you ask me! Well, did you see the super Pink Moon last night? The skies were clear here, so we saw it rise in the sky, not the same as being on the beach and watching it come out of the ocean a big orange ball, but it had to do…. And it did…. The late great Dan Fogelberg greets me this morning with his song: As The Raven Flies….

The currencies had a good day yesterday, adding onto their gains from the night before… I have to say that this is the first time I’ve seen a good trading day for the currencies following good overnight trading for the currencies, in what seems like a month of Sundays! I’ll tell you one thing, economists and analysts are split down the middle, with ½ of them saying the dollar is King, will remain King, no questions asked, and the other ½ of them saying that once the Oil contracts begin to take the dollar out of the picture, and trading countries us their own currencies, then the trap door springs on the dollar, and suddenly, everyone begins to fret about all the debt the U.S. accumulated….

So, go ahead and pick your side…. I’m of the opinion that we’re going to see a change in the financial system, and that dollars won’t play as big a part as they do now…. This has been going on for some time now folks…. You see, the Fed, was bailing out foreign entities, without Congress or the public knowing about it, back in 2008…. Well, the President has put a stop to that, and even with the Fed’s new Unlimited amount that they can buy, they had better make sure it’s only from U.S. Corporations/ banks…. This lack of dollars overseas has become a real problem… There’s a ton of dollar denominated debt coming due overseas, and they don’t have enough dollars to pay them off…. So, what will these foreign entities do? They will search for ways to go around dollars, so that this never happens again…. Uh-oh….. And that will be the beginning chip to be thrown on the poker table, that will lead to a big pot, that causes a collapse of our financial system…. I’m just saying…

So, go ahead and keep buying stocks, go ahead and keep getting further into debt, I’m just going to sit here grinning like the Cheshire Cat, with my Gold & Silver….

Gold started the day yesterday down $7 and tried to come back to even on the day, but was turned away by the roadblock that was price manipulators… I’m telling you this now, so you may listen to me later, but “it is NOT in the best interests of the U.S. to have Gold become more in want than dollars”…. I’ve had long arguments with my former big boss, and good friend, Frank Trotter about this, and even showed him the WikiLeaks memos from the state dept, with conversations confirming my thoughts, but he was a naysayer on all that, and we agreed to disagree, going forward…. But that doesn’t mean he didn’t think Gold had a place in one’s investment portfolio!

I know that you longtime readers are getting quite tired of hearing me say that the one thing the price manipulators do, is keep the price of Gold from soaring, and allowing procrastinators the ability to buy Gold before it gets away from them…. You know what? I think that’s the last time I’m going to write that…. I’m sick of having to talk like I appreciate what the price manipulators are doing! To hell with them and the horse they rode in on!

So, everyone that writes a book about the coming collapse of the dollar, has the same problem… they all can’t think of anything that can take the place of the dollar… Well, if Angela Merkel hadn’t sold the Eurozone’s soul to the devil and allowed millions of refugees, the Eurozone would be working toward having the euro do just that, replace the dollar… It’s already the second most traded currency in the world…. Its capital accounts are open and easily traded, a deep bond market, and so on, but right now, all the Gov’t’s efforts are tied down to dealing with refugees….

10 years ago, I thought that by now China’s Capital Markets would be open and easily traded, with tons of trading partners… I guess I underestimated just how much control the Communist Party would have on all that, and they’ve delayed China’s currency on a grand scale from happening…. It could still happen… But…. I doubt it now…. UGH! And I was so sure that they would be in position to take over the reserve currency of the world by now…. See, I guess all my “visions” don’t come true…. Although a lot of them eventually come true, but if you’re wrong on the timing you might has well have kept your mouth shut, because no one remembers…..

Gold…. I knew when I typed the words to yesterday’s title that I shouldn’t do that because it could led to the “old Chuck’s kiss o’death”….  But I went ahead and used “Gold Continues to March Higher”…   I’m sorry…. I really wanted to believe that I had no such powers…. HA!   

Speaking of Gold…  You know, that Gold has no liabilities, right? It has no counterparty risk? It’s not an investment, it’s a store of wealth, right? That it can’t go bankrupt, be bailed out, have taxpayers pay for its years of acting like the Three Stooges, right? Well, then as long as we have all that straight, then tell me that an ETF, that has all those bad things, is just as good as physical Gold?  I’m just saying… 

I keep telling people that this economic problem we’re in was going to pop anyway, it was leaking air, and the COVID-19 virus just move it up on the schedule…. Here’s a ditty to prove what I’m talking about… The Fed set up a lending facility for small business, and allocated $350 Billion…. The applications received totaled $1.7 Trillion!!!!!!! These businesses were up to their eyeballs in debt, and now they’re just using the virus as an excuse !

You know… this economic shutdown is just getting worse for everyone with every passing day…. Imagine all the perishable food that’s not being eaten because it can’t get picked, trucked, delivered and sold at a grocery store…. I imagine heads of lettuce, and so on just rotting in the fields… The food supply chain has been badly damaged, and broken, folks…. Time to dig a garden I suspect, except where I live, with a creek at my boundary line, I have so many wild animals, raccoons, deer, coyotes, foxes, just to name a few, that would eat up anything I planted before it ripened! UGH! Oh well, guess I’ll have to learn to live on meat and potatoes!  And  Meat lovers Pizza! HA! to get Federal aid…. 

And that inflation that I keep telling you is coming, will first be seen in food prices, because of the demand and lack of supply…. As I’ve told you for many years now, almost as long as it was for when my dad told me this…. But in reality there’s no such thing as a shortage of an item…. It’s merely an item that is need of a price adjustment…. And so it will be with the perishable foods that we purchase….  

The proof of that statement is in the pudding with Palladium folks… A couple of years ago, Palladium was trading less than Platinum…  And then it was discovered that there was a so-called shortage of Palladium, and what did the price of Palladium do? Well, we all know it skyrocketed! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard continues to be wanting…. Wanting more economic data, and it won’t get it today, as the only thing on the docket today is the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Minutes from their last meeting, which ended up being anticlimactic, given the Fed had cut rates twice out of meeting prior to that last meeting…  So, these minutes will probably be a bunch of back slapping and congrats for doing a bang up job….  I kid of course, they had better not be celebrating their latest moves! 

Well, it’s holy week, and last night was the first rise of the full moon for this month. It was called the Pink Moon, and was considered a Super Moon…. The timing of these events is important, the paschal full moon refers to the ecclesiastical full moon of the northern spring used in the determination of the date of Easter. The name “paschal” is derived from “Pascha”, a transliteration of the Aramaic word meaning Passover. – google

To recap….  The currencies had a good day yesterday, but saw some drifting and weakness overnight…. Gold saw $11 be taken from its price, by the price manipulators, and dollar bugs.  Chuck is very concerned about the food supply chain being badly damaged….   Inflation is coming…. I hear it sneaking around the corner…. Remember those old ghost stories we would tell around the campfire, closer he came, step by step, inch by inch, till finally, HE WAS ON YOU! 

For What It’s Worth….  I like it when I can find really BIG guys and gals that millions of people follow each day say stuff that sounds like me talking….  And so it was with Raoul Pal, and the folks at zerohedge.com reproduced his comments about the COVID-19 virus and the economy, and they can be found here: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/whole-worlds-fked-raoul-pal-pulls-no-punches-latest-interview

Or, here’s your snippet: “The whole world’s in trouble” ( he used a different phrase not suitable for this family letter, so I changed it!) 

That is how Raoul Pal, the former hedge-fund manager who founded Real Vision, reacted when he first heard of the uncontrolled and rapid contagion of COVID-19 across the globe. Speaking from his home in the Cayman Islands on the latest “Lindzanity” podcast, the ex-Goldman, ex-GLG Partners trader said:

“The moment the spread hit Iran… and then Italy… that all happened over the span of three or four days… I was like: ‘time to panic before everybody else’…”

“It’s human behavior function. If the Chinese closed every single border and every city, everybody’s going to do it.”

“I said: ‘Listen, this is the biggest economic event of all of our lifetimes – and it’s coming'” he added. “And that was, in retrospect, the greatest call I’ve ever had.”

And now, with stock markets down 20-40% (depending on geography), bond yields collapsed, credit spreads still blown out, oil almost in the teens, and gold topping $1,700, Pal continues to think (even after Monday’s manic short-squeeze melt-up), that COVID-19 will cause “the largest insolvency event in all history.” And, as Business Insider notes, given his track record as of late, that’s not reassuring.

“I think the balance of probabilities are that this is a much longer event – in terms of economic impacts – than anybody is pricing in,” he said.

“I think it’s a huge societal change that’s coming from all of this.”

To Pal, it is the duration of the fallout from COVID-19 lock-downs that is the key factor here, and one he believes investors are not paying enough attention to (let alone pricing in). In his mind, those who are a projecting sharp V-shaped recovery in the third and forth quarter are incorrect in their assumptions..”

Chuck Again….  Tell them Mr. Pal! Because nobody listens to me! Traders that is….  

Currencies today 4/8/20 American Style: A$.6182, kiwi .5976, C$ .7144, euro 1.0875, sterling 1.2360, Swiss $1.0296, European Style: rand 18.1834, krone 10.2765, SEK 10.0609, forint 329.80, zloty 4.1625,    koruna 24.9787, RUB 75.56, yen 108.92, sing 1.4267, HKD 7.7520, INR 75.97, China 7.0582, peso 24.25, BRL 5.2520, Dollar Index 100.07,   Oil $24.46,   10-year .75%, Silver $15.05, Platinum $739.32, Palladium $2,191.36, and Gold… $1,645.53

That’s it for today…. I really got depressed for a bit yesterday, when it hit me that this coming Sunday is Easter, and it won’t be like any Easter in my lifetime…. No little Delaney in her Easter dress and bonnet, no grandsons dressed up…. Hopefully they still go through the motions of Easter at their homes so we can zoom them or facetime them…. But I guess great traditions can be brought to an end, when a pandemic hits, eh?  And I haven’t held my granddaughter, Evie, for 4 months!  Oh well, it is what it is….   Last night I watched the World Series Game 3, when Albert Pujols hit 3 home runs!  Only Babe Ruth, and Reggie Jackson, had done that previously….  Hey! MLB did a NCAA tournament style bracket to determine in the history of baseball who had the absolutely best season…. On one side of the bracket it was hitters, on the other side, pitchers….  And in the end facing each other in the finals it was Babe Ruth, VS Bob Gibson…. The fans vote Gibson the winner! His 1968 1.12 ERA season is and will always be one of the great memories I have listening to the games on the radio….  OK, I’ve gone on too long today… sorry…  Marvin Gaye & Tammy Terrel take us to the finish line today with their song: Your Precious Love….  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday, and well Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

 

April 7, 2020

* Currencies rally in the overnight markets… 

* Chuck answers some questions…. 

Good Day…. And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! It’s a good thing I start each day with a day of the week ditty, as I would for sure lose track of what day it is…. And don’t Laugh, I’m sure that now that most of you are working from home, you know if it weren’t for you signing in each day, that you would lose track of what day it is too! The clouds and gray finally gave way to sunshine yesterday, and I was able to get back outside! I sure do miss my baseball…. What’s a poor boy like me supposed to do without baseball? I began listening to Classic Rock’s Top 100 on my Sirius XM radio app yesterday… Most of the songs I have on my iPod already, but have heard some that I had forgotten about! Music is what I have now… I sit out in the backyard, and sing out loud with the songs, and there’s no one anywhere to complain! HA! The Beach Boys greet me this morning with their love song: Wouldn’t It Be Nice….

Yes, wouldn’t it be nice to put all this in our rear view mirror? But it’s still with us, and the worst is yet to come, although we, as Americans sure have done better with the stay at home rule than I would have thought we would do…. Look, we are “social people”, we get out among the people, make new friends, etc. I really thought by now, my fellow Americans would be saying “to hell with that!” But then again, we ARE Americans, and we rise to the occasion, when its placed in front of us…. You know, my publishers, Mary Anne and Pamela Aden, aka The Aden Sisters, have always been on me to come to Costa Rica… And right now I’m thinking that just might be where I go and never come back until there’s baseball again! Hello, Mary Anne…. This is Chuck, I was wondering if I could bring my whole family down to Costa Rica… Yes, there are 12 of us…. You have a hotel we could use? That would be great, we’ll be there by the end of the week… No wait! We have to get shots before we go, right? Oh, well, forget about that then, because there’s no way we can get them while this COVID-19 virus thing is ruling the day!

I’m sorry,,,, I started typing and the next thing I knew I was in Costa Rica! Silly me! OK…. Well, the euro couldn’t hold onto the 1.08 handle yesterday, as the dollar bugs continued to work their magic spell over the markets, that have them believing that this shut down in the economy will be short-lived, and therefore it’s time to buy stocks and dollars again….

But in the overnight market, there was some healing in the currencies, and as I look at them this morning, they’re all trading with better numbers this morning than yesterday morning…  I know, there’s really nothing out there in currency land that screams, “buy me, buy me”…  Unless of course you’re willing to take a flyer on the Russian ruble, which to me fundamentally seems to be the best, but with their main business, Oil, looking for production cuts to keep it from falling below $20, the ruble gets ignored….  I’m just saying, that maybe, it’s worth a section of your investment portfolio, where you have your “pet investments”… 

For full disclosure, I own rubles….  And I bought them for all the great fundamentals, and the fact that they pay a yield, which in this day of negative and zero yields, is a big thing in my book! 

I was scanning the stories on MarketWatch.com yesterday and came across this quote that I thought played nicely in the sand box with my thoughts that there’s another shoe to drop with stocks… Check this out… “When the markets start to see some of the data on unemployment rising and economic growth and corporate earnings contracting, there will be another level of panic in the market.’ — Scott Minerd

If you don’t know who Scott Minerd is, well he’s themanaging partner and chief investment officer of Guggenheim Partners, so maybe, just maybe he knows a thing about what’s going on, eh?

Gold found a way to push the dollar down by another $20 and in the early trading today the shiny metal is giving back some of those gains from yesterday, but it’s early…  There have been a lot of articles by very smart people in the past week that believe the days of engineered takedowns are ending, as the COMEX is like the Emperor without clothes right now having defaulted last week on a delivery of a 400 oz Gold Bar…. Basically it works like this, folks…. 400 oz Gold Bars are what is know as “good delivery” Gold…. So, large institutions, banks, Central Banks casino Banks (that is if they ever got their heads out of their …. And bought some Gold) when they take delivery of Gold that they purchased, it’s in the form of a “good delivery bar”…. Apparently, the COMEX had to deliver one last week, and couldn’t find it…. Wait! What? Yes, the COMEX in a desperate attempt to keep the paper Trading alive, introduced a new 400 oz Gold Paper Contract, but then found out they didn’t have any in stock in case someone needed delivery!

Not to worry, I’m sure that’s all been taken care of now, right? HA!

Come on Chuck, this is supposed to be the Holy Week, you’re supposed to be kind to your fellow man…. Well, I’m trying, it’s just that the morons keep stepping out in front of me! I’ll try to do better the rest of the week….

Well, what I really wanted to talk about is all the articles talking about an end of the paper contract’s ability to move the Gold & Silver Prices….. I want to know just who they know that told them this is going to be the case, because, if that’s the case, then Beep, Beep, Beep, Yes, that’s the sound of my truck backing up to the loading dock to take on as much Gold as I have money for! Hey…. I just thought of something…. If you could go into debt, and take the cash and buy Gold, and when the fit hits the shan, and the Gov’t forgives everyone’s debt, you would be left with Gold that you didn’t pay for! OK, I’ve got to get a day job, my mind is working overtime on this stuff these days, ! HA!

OK, after climbing to a $27 handle yesterday, on news that Trump and Putin are going to cut Oil production, by 10 Million barrels a day, the price of Oil slipped a buck downward, this time on news that a production meeting is going to take place in a few days, and there are now questions of the production cuts…. Oh my…. Why can’t you all get together and decide where Oil is going and then get out the way!

OK. I want to get to a couple of questions I received in the Pfennig Replies box, that seemed best to answer in the Pfennig so that everyone can read what I have to say…. Yesterday, I mentioned that there could be a new financial system soon…. This is where the debt that every country, sans Singapore and Russia, have accumulated, gets repriced, or even written off… This gives all the debtor nations an opportunity to reset the system, and when resetting the system, the main thing will be at what price do they reset Gold…. Is it $10,000 or $15,000? And that’s when all the countries in the world meet and show their hands, like in poker. Their hands? How much physical Gold do they have in reserves…. They’re will be some BIG surprises…. Like here in the U.S. when we find out that ½ our Gold has been leased out…. We still own it on paper, but possession is 90% of the law, right? The other BIG surprise will be just how much Gold China has accumulated…. I’m betting that their total is north of 15,000 Tonnes…. Which would put them at the head of the table, eh?

And then the other question was about why do I bash Gold ETF’s…. OK…. I’m sorry if I appear to be bashing Gold ETF’s…. To me, if you are simply attempting to track the price of Gold to trade it somewhere down the line, then go ahead and buy the ETF…. But…. At some point in the future, push comes to shove, and you need physical Gold…. Well, you won’t be able to get it out of the ETF…. And with everyone buying physical Gold, there will be none to buy, and then what are you going to do, with the dollars that, if Gold is that important that point, I can’t see the dollar being worth much,.

I say that with the thought that keeps creeping into my brain, and that is that there’s nothing in writing that says the dollar would be worth less if Gold was worth so much… It’s just the way it’s always been, Gold up, dollar down… but this last year has brought the idea that the dollar can remain strong in the face of a Gold rally….  Strange? yes it is, but it is what it is, and I don’t argue with things like that, I just take them as they come…. 

You buy auto insurance in hopes that you never need it, right? You buy health insurance in hopes you never need it, right? You buy home insurance and fire insurance in hopes you never need it, right? Well, there’s nothing different about buying physical Gold…. You buy it, store it, and hope you never need it…. Period!

Can you believe that my old stomping ground wouldn’t allow me to say that last paragraph? They really had a problem with me telling people to buy investment insurance, which would reduce their dollar holdings… I’m just saying…. OK, I’m past the time I agreed not to talk about them, so there! Whoa, there, Chuck… you had better tread lightly there…. 

There’s one more reoccurring question in the PRB… This one asks me why I don’t mention TIPS….  You know the inflation protection bonds that the Gov’t came out with about 20 years ago?  Well, if you can allocate enough money to TIPS then you’ve got inflation protection for that amount of money… See what I’m talking about? I consider TIPS to be a self-centered investment…. And then there’s also the fact that when I went to the bond screen this morning to check on how low yields were for TIPS… And guess what? The whole yield curve is negative!   No thank you ma’am I’ve had enough! 

Well, remember Michael Burry, of the Big Short movie? He saw the housing bubble (after I wrote about it in the White paper, the Year of the euro, 2003) and made bets against the housing sector, and came out looking like a genius…. Well, he’s back to bashing things, this time it’s the economic shutdown here in the U.S.   Apparently, like me, he’s concerned that we won’t be able to “kick start” the economy, just like that!  

As I told you yesterday, the U.S. Data Cupboard was a barren as the moon, and today it just has a couple of data prints that won’t really move the markets, but there is one that I follow… Consumer Credit (read debt) which is really old, as it’s the Feb. print, before the COVID-19 virus came to our shores, so this print will be interesting to see how much debt consumers took on in Feb. 

To recap… The dollar bugs ruled the day yesterday, but in the overnight markets the currencies, and I mean all of them, rallied to win back some lost ground…  Gold was up again with yesterday’s move bringing $20 more to Gold’s price…. The early markets this morning have Gold giving back about $6 of that gain yesterday, but… it’s still early….  Chuck answers some  questions, and wonders what the interest in TIPS is all about?

Before I head to the Big Finish today…. I took a ride last night in my car…. I hadn’t really driven my car in 4 months, and while I thought that it was getting driven while I was gone, the battery barely turned the motor over…. I went straight to the QT for gas (I had my disinfectant cloth with me so I could touch the gas handle…. I then set out for a ride on the highway, which was pretty much empty…. Oh, and the QT was eerily empty, I was the only car on the lot pumping gas! That place is usually busy at 3 in the morning! I love to drive in Missouri, it’s such a beautiful state, with its rolling hills, and scenic vistas…. I got back home around dark, and thought, I’m going to do that again tomorrow!

For What It’s Worth….  I was reading last night an article that explained that Gold futures to the next rollover data are much higher in price the spot Gold…. That’s got to be good right?  Well, here’s an article on zerohedge.com that gets into this for you, and it can be found here: https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/gold-futures-extend-gains-8-year-highs-after-pelosis-trillion-dollar-promise

Or, here’s your snippet: “COVID-19 appears to have impacted the deep fiscally-conservative regions of the brains of politicians more than many suspected possible as left, right, and center seem to be coalescing around the fact that more spending is better, more helicopter money is even better-er, and more zeros in the national debt is better-est!

Tonight’s latest utterance/demands from Speaker Pelosi – that the next, fourth, round of virus-relief stimulus must be at least $1 trillion – appears to have confirmed one thing (as @hkuppy notes so pointedly): “Glad to see both parties supporting gold $10k…”

And sure enough, gold is soaring after hours following this headline…

Referring to his institutional market research at Global Macro Investor, we give the last word to Raoul Pal and his most recent thoughts (excerpted) on “A Dollar Standard Crisis” are…”Don’t forget – the $13tn short dollar positions (foreign dollar debt held mainly by foreign corporation and investment vehicles) is the largest position ever taken in the history of global financial markets.”
It can only mean a massive, uncontrolled dollar rally.

QE will not fix this. Swap lines will not fix this. A debt jubilee would fix this or multiple trillions of dollars in write-downs and defaults.

It is the dollar strength that brings to world to its nadir (just like the 1930s). It is the dollar system that is the really big problem.

The dollar has eaten all of its competitors and now it is going to eat itself.”

This eventually breaks the dollar after a super-spike as global central banks are forced to find alternatives.

The world’s elite have long wanted to replace the U.S. dollar with a single global super-currency, as The World Bank’s former chief economist said in 2014, it will create a more stable global financial system.

“The dominance of the greenback is the root cause of global financial and economic crises,” Justin Yifu Lin told Bruegel, a Brussels-based policy-research think tank.

“The solution to this is to replace the national currency with a global currency.”

Chuck Again…. Yes, I want to make something perfectly clear here…  All the deficit spending, all the Fed’s measures,  all of it, is only here to extend the bad loans that everyone has made, and to provide short-term liquidity….  I’m just saying… 

Currencies today 4/7/20 American Style: A$.6185, kiwi .5987, C$ .7136, euro 1.0880, sterling 1.2320, Swiss $1.0272, European Style: rand 18.3352, krone 10.2425, SEK 10.0225, forint 330.47, zloty 4.1751,   koruna 25.0016, RUB 76.44, yen 109.05, sing 1.4243, HKD 7.7520, INR 75.40, China 7.0905, peso 24.25, BRL 5.3048, Dollar Index 100.18,  Oil $26.91,   10-year .74%, Silver $15.21, Platinum $744.64, Palladium $2,209.90, and Gold… $1,655.10

That’s it for today…  Pretty wordy today…. Oh well, what else do you have to do today, besides read a long Pfennig! HA!  Fox Sports Midwest is showing the 2011 World Series games this week… I already know the outcomes of the games, but it’s great to just see some baseball being played! Even though it was 9 years ago!  There were some players in that game 1 last night that I had forgotten that they had played for the Cardinals! WOW!  The Great Al Stewart takes us to the finish line today with his song: On The Border….  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday, and will Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

 

 

April 6, 2020

* The dollar bugs grab the con once again from the currencies

* Gold rallies two consecutive days…. 

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, besides the drive back to St. Louis, last week, I’ve been sheltered for 3 weeks… Ever since my kids left to go home, upon their conclusion of their spring break, I’ve pretty much stayed put… Neighbors, Paul and Lenore, were out on their deck on Friday, so pulled a chair into the yard, and we caught up, as I had not seen them for 3 months…  practicing social distancing! It was good to talk to someone else…. I have a group of friends that meet at my favorite watering hole every Friday afternoon, and so we all got together and had a “zoom” session. Hey! At least I got to see everyone again! This Zoom thing is pretty cool… That is until it won’t be any longer…. HA! Dell Shannon greets me this morning with his song: Runaway….

So, riddle me this Batman…. 701,000 are reported as jobs lost in March, and the stock jockeys rejoice? Wait! What? Yes, this is a blatant example of the “opposites” we are in for trading of assets these days, for sure! I’ll have more on the Jobs Jamboree in a minute or two…. But first!

More importantly, to me that is, the dollar bugs also rejoiced at the news of a job losses and sent the currencies to the woodshed… How in the world does that happen? What causes a dollar bug to think that this is all going to work out in their favor, when the last two weeks have seen over 10 Million apply for unemployment benefits? I think I know the answer to this, and it was very prevalent on the deck down in Florida, when the two gentlemen were discussing how they were buying into the market because the worst is behind us…. Really? I would offer this…. The worst is still ahead of us, folks… The next two weeks with this virus is going to be critical to understanding when we reach the peak of cases and deaths….

I understand that stock mark futures are up this morning because traders thought the weekend death toll numbers were better than expected…  Brother! Is that what this has come down to? I’m not even going there!

So, the Big Winner on Friday, and through the weekend, was the price of Oil… Looking very weak until Friday of last week, the price of Oil has rebounded upward to a $27 handle. The first move came after new that Trump and Putin had agreed to cut daily Oil production by 10 Million barrels… Well, that might be all well and good, for the Oil producers, but for the common man, trying to eke out whatever he can of his savings each week, the rise of price of gas at the pump isn’t going to be a big help….  

The only currency to come through the gauntlet put down the dollar bugs, on Friday, was the Russian ruble, who FINALLY saw some love from traders…. but do you see the connection?  Oil price rises, Russian ruble rallies….   But the ruble wasn’t able to drag the other Petrol Currencies along for the rally… The Mexican peso got trashed, the Norwegian Krone is too tied to the euro’s fortunes, which weren’t good on Friday, the Brazilian real just can’t stop stepping on its own toes, and the Canadian dollar did get a little love, but not much…. 

Well…. Gold has a decent day on Friday, closing up $11 on the day, and is up again this morning in the early trading by $20… Front and center on this discussion is to say thank you, thank you, thank you, in my best Gomer Pyle voice, to those of you who sent along emails alerting me that the actual end of the decade comes on 12/31/20…. So, Whew! I don’t have to eat any crow yet, on my call that the U.S. dollar would not be the reserve currency of the world by the end of the decade, that is… yet!

I was reading an email from the GATA folks this weekend and in it GoldMoney’s Alasdair Macleod was talking as if he had been in one of my presentations from 10 years ago…. He said that Basically, in his mind that China would end up selling a load of U.S. Treasuries, buying more physical Gold, and then backing their currency, the renminbi or yuan, with Gold, thus making it the most attractive currency in the world , and thus stealing the crown from the King Dollar…. These are all words that I used to say at just about every presentation I gave back in the day! So, it was nice to see that someone else believes what I do….

And I ask this question once again…. Got Gold?

OK…. I was able to listen to a talk with Pippa Malmgren and Grant Williams on Thursday last week… In case you don’t know Pippa Malmgren is a very well respected analyst/ economist that has worked in the White House, Wall Street, etc. And she was giving us a way to lessen the backlash of all this debt…. You see, for those of you who remember this, back in the late 80’s we had the Savings and Loan collapse, remember that one? The Gov’t created the RTC, which would buy the debts of the savings and loan, and then package them up in a 30 year Gov’t guaranteed bond. It was a novel way to deal with the Savings & Loan mess…. And Pippa thought that maybe the Gov’t could do something with all the debt they are taking in with all their new and improved plans…. I say, give it a shot, why not? Otherwise the Fed just sits there with over $10 Trillion of junk that’s probably going to have problems in the future…. I’m just saying… 

Well… My good friend, Dennis Miller of www.milleronthemoney.com sent me a note last Thursday night, that a longtime reader, Bernard, had already sent me, and in the article it talked about how, while the Gov’t is going to be sending U.S. citizens checks, that it might take months for a lot of those checks to be received…. Then on a different note I saw on Friday, it talked about what a “good thing the IRS was doing”…. In making the stimulus money available to be automatically deposited in one’s bank account…. Well, that might be all well and good, but, be careful of things the “Gov’t does for you”…. Because if you allow them to access your bank account they’ll be able to go both ways on that in the future…. And that leads me to an article that I’m writing with Dennis Miller on the end of cash…. So, we have that to look forward to now don’t we? 

Spoiler alert…. Chuck pulls out an old Dow Theory Letters article from 2016, that’s so bang on with what’s going on today, with interest rates…. 

OK, the Jobs Jamboree on Friday turned into a Job Fair… As 701,000 jobs were lost in March…. But is that really the true number? I mean the last two weeks of people filing for unemployment in the U.S. have totaled more the 10 Million…. So, where’s the discrepancy? Ahhh, you can’t shoot all the chickens in the hen at once, right? So, as I keep telling you, the April number is going to be a real doozy! But as long as we’re all prepared for it, it won’t surprise anyone…. So, go ahead and say, it for April the Unemployment Rate will rise to 6%,…. It hasn’t been that high since we were coming out of the depths of the Financial Crisis of 2007-08.

And here’s another thing I want to you to stop and think about…. What IF…. The turning of the Earth on its Axis thus bringing warmer weather to the northern hemisphere, doesn’t bring about an decline in the COVID-19 virus numbers? How long are we going to keep the economy shut down? And here’s where I differ with just about every economist out there…. I say there will be no “quick start” to the economy once its back on line… Yes, we’d all like to believe that will happen, but in my mind it won’t, for there will be too many roadblocks preventing it…. And the main one is that in my opinion, the financial system won’t be the same…. Go on chew on that one for a minute before I hit you with more…

OK, the U.S. Data Cupboard today is as barren as the moon today, but last week was a Bonanza of data that got missed because of the Jobs data….  But the Monthly Trade Deficit fell below $40 Billion for the first time that I can ever remember, I think…. Just goes to show you that when the U.S. consumer decides to stay home and not spend like there’s no tomorrow, that the Trade Deficit goes down…. 

In addition, the Feb. Factory Orders were flat, 0% growth, which was better than January’s negative -0.5% drop… But again the majority of this data was taken before the COVID-19 came to our shores, so again, March’s print, in April, will be very bad….  And the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4% in March…. But like I said above, I’m looking for a 6% rate come next month…  Think about that for a moment over 10 MILLION people have filed for unemployment benefits in the last two weeks….  What happens if this trend isn’t “short-lived” like the markets participants are thinking? 

I just think that in this situation that we should be more like Jack Reacher, and “hope for the best, plan for the worst”….  That’s a saying that I use all the time now, thanks to Jack Reacher!  

To recap…. The Economy lost over 700,000 jobs in March, and the dollar bugs and stock jockeys thought that to be a good thing, and rallied their respective assets and that rally will continue today….  Oil jumped in price since last week, and this morning Oil has a $27 handle to trade with, which helped the Russian ruble become the only currency that saw some love on Friday….   Chuck poses the question for everyone to consider…. What IF this isn’t going to be short-lived, like traders are thinking it will be?  Chuck believes we should be “hoping for the best, and planning for the worst”…. 

For What It’s Worth…. Well first I saw this article sent to me from the GATA folks, and then in his Saturday letter, Ed Steer highlighted it too (edsteergoldsilver.com) And it originally came from the weirdest of places…. Bloomberg.com…. I say that because Bloomberg writers have ripped Gold Bugs up and down for years, and now it seems they’ve come over to the right side…. The Force! So, you can find the article here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-03/gold-bugs-finally-see…

Or, here’s your snippet: “For years gold bugs were relegated to the fringes of financial markets. Often viewed by mainstream investors as tinfoil-hat conspiracists with basements full of beans and bottled water, their warnings sounded apocalyptic: a coming collapse in financial assets, widespread devaluation of paper money, and global disasters that erode civil liberties

Welcome to 2020.

As the coronavirus brings economies around the world to a standstill, gold is rivaling Treasuries and the dollar as the best-performing major asset this year. The metal proved its haven status with a 6% rally as almost $16 trillion was wiped off global stock markets and oil plunged.

There’s also been a scramble for physical metal as investors in exchange-traded funds build the biggest stockpile in history and dealers say they’re struggling to find gold to sell.

“We’ve been trying to warn people that something like this would happen,” said Jim Rickards, the author of several books that predicted a coming financial reset. Rickards, who spoke from a New England mountain compound, has long recommended holding gold as a precaution for wealth preservation.

“I’ve been saying it for years,” he said. “I’m not happy about being right.”
There are echoes of many of the typical gold bug predictions in today’s crisis. Besides the obvious economic and financial-market upheaval, social interaction has become taboo and in some places soldiers are telling people not to leave their homes.

Even the so-called paper market for gold is showing cracks and a squeeze last month on New York’s Comex, the largest gold futures exchange, added fuel to another of the prophecies: that when the crisis came, there wouldn’t be enough gold to go around.”

Chuck again…. Wow, can’t believe that Bloomberg has jumped on the Gold bandwagon! In normal times I would say that this is a signal for us to jump off for now…. But, with all that I’ve told you about this last week, I just can’t see this as the turning point, like when the cabbie says “I just bought some Gold”…. I’m just saying….

Currencies today 4/6/20 American Style: A$.6072, kiwi .5935, C$ .7072, euro 1.0803, sterling 1.2293, Swiss $1.0227, European Style: rand 18.8386, krone 10.5322, SEK 10.1590, forint 338.35, zloty 4.2237,    koruna 25.5380, RUB 76.49, yen 108.88, sing 1.4338, HKD 7.7517, INR 76.10, China 7.0881, peso 25.11, BRL 5.3465, Dollar Index $100.66,   Oil $27.45,   10-year .65%, Silver $14.62, Platinum $732.64, Palladium $2,158.58, and Gold… $1,641.65

That’s it for today…. Week 2 at home, but like I said, other than the drive home, I’ve been keeping to myself for weeks now….   I would like now to be serious, and ask you all to say a short prayer today for my good friend Dennis Miller, who after weeks of immunotherapy, will have a scan today to see if the treatments are working….   It was a cold, gray, rainy, weekend here, no outside time for me, and I’m already missing the sun!  So, how are you all doing be sequestered at home? I know that everyone isn’t being sequestered, and if you’re a doctor, nurse, any health related person, grocery store folks, and anyone else that’s out there going to work each day and subjected yourself to the virus… May God Bless you!   Well, I was treated with great 60’s songs to start the day and end it, as Dion & the Belmonts take us to the finish line today with their song: The Wanderer… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday, and will continue to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

April 2, 2020

* Currencies drift again on Wednesday…. 

* Tomorrow is a Jobs Jamboree Friday! 

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to you! WOW! This is the first time I’ve written on a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday in a month of Sundays! Well, I guess I didn’t tick too many people off yesterday, as the responses in the Pfennig Replies box were more supportive than anything… Thanks to all who sent along well wishes for getting home safely…. I’ve always been someone that you could put behind the wheel of an auto and drive all day or all night… years ago, in a trip to the west coast, I got in the car in Rolla Mo. 100 miles from St. Louis, about 6 o’clock at night, and the next morning when everyone else woke up, I was pulling into Flagstaff Arizona…. So, the 17 hours from Juno Beach, Fla to Fenton, Mo, was no big deal! Jonathan Edwards greets me this morning with his rock classic song: Shanty…. We’re going to hang around the Shanty momma and put a good buzz on!

Another day, and another day of boring moves in the currencies.. I have to think that right now traders are trying to figure out which direction they want to go with the dollar…. They have the idea that it’s going to the dumpster on one hand, and on the other hand, they’re hoping that all this mess is going to be short-lived, and shorting the dollar outright, right now might not be a good thing… Of course they could ask me, and I would tell them that there’s no way that all these measures that are being put in place are going to be short-lived…. And shorting the dollar right now while it still is pretty strong (99 handle in the Dollar Index) would be the trade of the decade…. But then that’s just me, and see things before they actually happen…

The financial world that we knew before all this, will never be the same… I’m set in stone on that thought… To me, the Covid-19 virus has really just been the Black Swan event that has made the popping of the Fed’s credit bubble even worse…. The Covid-19 virus will abate at some point this summer, and then we’ll be left with the same problems in the markets that we had before, but only this time, inflation will be rising, the bond market rally will be a thing of the past, with yields rising to combat the inflation, and the Fed’s Balance Sheet will be north of $10 Trillion dollars! And again I need someone to tell me how all that doesn’t end up in tears….

OK… Well, after the one-day whacking that Gold had to deal with on Tuesday, the shiny metal attempted to gain some ground back yesterday…. Gold posted a near $17 gain for the day yesterday, to close at $1,593, and this morning there is more love coming Gold’s way, as it is up a buck or two early…  

You know… above I talked about how traders should sell the dollar and it would be the trade of the decade… the problem for these traders is what to buy after they’ve sold the dollar… You see, currencies trade in pairs, so you sell dollars and buy “x”….  And therein lies the problem…. there is no real alternative in the fiat currencies… I’ve told you since 2000 that the euro is the offset currency to the dollar, but the euro has negative interest rates, and a truck load of their own problems right now. So. to automatically go into euros wouldn’t be prudent….

Of course in a natural sell off of the dollar that’s exactly where a large part of the money would go, to the euro, that is…  But there is an alternative that  doesn’t pay interest, but at least you can hold it without being charged for doing so, like is done in the countries with negative interest rates….  By now, you’ve figured out that I’m talking about Gold…. 

You, see… if the financial system is exposed for the house of cards that it is during this Global economic shutdown, then the safe havens will be bought… Japanese yen, Swiss francs, euros, and Gold…  Notice I didn’t add Treasuries. Well, as I said above, the bond market rally is going to be over when this is all said and done, and yields will be rising to combat rising inflation….  So, there!  

Dear readers send me notes all the time, and say, “I know you don’t want to give investment advice, but I need to know where to go with my money”, and  So, this will be the one time that I put these things down in the Pfennig….  First of all you can’t sell all your dollars, because you need some for gas, groceries and giggles (not that we get to have many giggles these days!), so for a good part of your investment portfolio, you should allocate to cash, short term CD’s…. while you can still get some yield, as paltry as it may be….  Then the tried and true combo of: yen, francs, and euros with at least 20% of your allocation, and then Gold & Silver, with another 20% of your allocation, maybe even more in this day of craziness! 

That leaves us with a large portion of one’s investment portfolio that hasn’t had an allocation yet…. And this is where you have your pet investments….   I currently own some Treasuries, but they were purchased some time ago, so I’m still receiving yield on them…. But when they mature, they will be rolled into cash…..  

So…. there you go… I don’t like doing that, as you’re all adults, and can make decisions on your own….  But sometimes a nudge toward an idea is all we need…. So, there’s your nudge…. 

Yesterday, I really laid into the Central Banks, and their Central Planning… I just don’t know where they all made the turn to the dark side… But they have, and there’s no stopping them now until they blow everything up, and we have to start over….   In which case…. The countries that have enough Gold to build a new financial system are: Russia, China, Germany and the U.S. (maybe, we have no idea if there’s really enough Gold in Ft. Knox!) 

Quite a few years ago, when I was in my previous life, I created a Combo CD that was titled: The Prudent Central Bank Index CD…. It consisted of euros, sterling, A$’s and kiwi, and probably francs, but I don’t recall now…. But how silly does that title sound now? For all these central banks that the currencies represent, have gone to the dark side…. Shoot Rudy, even the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) just introduced a TLF…. Term Lending Facility to go along with their TAF Term Auction Facility…. Here’s the plan of the Central Banks folks…. Dazzle the citizens with acronyms, letters that don’t mean much, but disguise what’s really going on….

Oh, and according to Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr who said:.

“New Zealand’s financial system remains sound, with strong capital and liquidity buffers. We are confident that the financial system is well placed to respond to the impacts of coronavirus.”

Ok, call me jaded, but if your financial system is sound, as you say, why then change things and begin following the FED. BOE, BOJ, ECB and others? I’m just saying!

Alrighty back to normal programming….

In a very obvious case of being late to the party…. The IMF yesterday, announced that the Global Economy was in a recession…. Great! That’s like someone yelling that the bank was robbed, after the robbers are 10 miles away! Boy, these folks at the IMF are a real help aren’t they? Couldn’t they have been a little more proactive and warn us about this coming Global recession a long time ago, like say that guy that writes a letter titled: A Pfennig For Your Thoughts? 

OK, the U.S. Data Cupboard had the March ISM for us yesterday, and just like I thought it would do, it fell below 50 at 49.1…. But as I said yesterday, the first part of March was normal, it wasn’t until the 12th of March that everything started getting shutdown….  So, the April print will be a real disappointment for sure!  

With the change in location, for me, and all the craziness going on, I completely forgot that we were in a new month, which means the first Friday is a Jobs Jamboree Friday!  The ADP Employment Report for March printed yesterday and showed -27,000 jobs created in March…. I would have thought that to be a bigger number, but, as I keep telling myself, the April numbers of everything are going to be the problem…. 

We’ll also see Feb. Factory Orders today, which again is before the COVID-19 virus hit our shores…. So, it will be weak but not the kind of weakness that’s coming for this data set, that’s for sure! 

To Recap… The currencies drifted again on Wednesday, and really have no direction right now, as traders attempt to figure out if they want to sell dollars, or if all this craziness will be short-lived….  Chuck would help them along, but they won’t listen to him! Gold gained back $17 on Wednesday, after getting whacked by $44 on Tuesday.  Quick test…. What countries have enough Gold?  Come on, the answer is above! HA! 

For What It’s Worth….  I talked about Bill Gates’ Pandemic plan earlier this week, so when the folks at MarketWatch sent me a link to an article about what Bill Gates sees now, I knew it had to be a FWIW article…. And that’s what we have Bill Gates’ view on the Pandemic, and it can be found here: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bill-gates-shutdown-everywhere-or-well-be-faced-with-a-recipe-for-disaster-2020-04-01?mod=MW_section_top_stories

Or, here’s your snippet: “That’s Microsoft MSFT, -3.55% founder Bill Gates urging the government to enforce a nationwide shutdown in an op-ed in the Washington Post on Tuesday.

“Despite urging from public health experts, some states and counties haven’t shut down completely,” he said. “In some states, beaches are still open; in others, restaurants still serve sit-down meals. This is a recipe for disaster. Because people can travel freely across state lines, so can the virus.”

He explained that until the numbers start to go down across the country — which he says could take at least 10 weeks — the shutdown should be in play everywhere. He also stepped up his call for more testing and was hopeful a vaccine will be developed in less than 18 months.
As it stands now, at least 30 states have stay-at-home orders in place with some 250 million Americans told to remain sheltered and maintain social-distancing measures.

Gates latest comments echo those made in a recent TED interview.
‘There really is no middle ground, and it’s very tough to say to people, “Hey, keep going to restaurants, go buy new houses, [and] ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner,’” he said, taking aim at politicians who seem to think GDP growth is all that counts.

The Gates Foundation ponied up $100 million to assist in the battle against the spread of coronavirus in February after committing to $10 million in January when the outbreak started.

President Trump warned Americans on Tuesday to brace for a “rough two-week period” as the White House released grim new projections for as many as 240,000 deaths even if current social distancing guidelines are maintained. “I want every American to be prepared for the hard days that lie ahead,” he said. “We’re going to go through a very tough two weeks.”

Chuck again…  10 more weeks of not going anywhere? Oh well, if that’s what it takes… But I don’t see most Americans abiding to that too well… We’re a country of people that are “social”, and on the go….  And if I, who’s pretty sedentary these days, am champing at the bit to get out and go, I can only imagine what the go-getters are doing!  It’ll be tough, but…. We’re Americans, we pull together when the going gets tough, and if we need to stay home for 10 more weeks, so be it!  We CAN DO THIS! 

Currencies today 4/2/20 American Style: A$.6093, kiwi .5955, C$ .7065, euro 1.0922, sterling 1.2445, Swiss $1.0348, European Style: rand 18.4635, krone 10.2965, SEK 10.0284, forint 331.95, zloty 4.1844,    koruna 25.2351, RUB 78.75, yen 107.31, sing 1.4318, HKD 7.7516, INR 75.95, China 7.0942, peso 24.30, BRL 5.2261, Dollar Index 99.56,  Oil $22.21,   10-year .60%, Silver $14.16, Platinum $723.50, Palladium $2,275.85, and Gold… $1,594.21

That’s it for today and tomorrow…. A dear reader sent me a funny yesterday… He said, “he washed his hands so much that the answers from his 8th grade test began to show!”   HAHAHAHA! So, that’s my new saying, “wash your hands until the answers from an 8th grade test show”!  I exchanged belated birthday greetings with my former publisher, Erika Nolan yesterday… I told her that life has no meaning without baseball…. Of course I was kidding, but that sure tells a lot about how I feel that there’s no baseball as the weather warms…. And yesterday, should have been home Opening Day here for my beloved Cardinals….  UGH!  Next week is the Holy Week…  I’ll need to be nicer than I have been in the Pfennig next week! The Allman Brothers take us to the finish line today with an instrumental song: In Memory Of Elizabeth Reed…   (I have a story to tell about that song, but I’ve gone on too long already today, so I’ll save it for another day) I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday, and Please Be Good To Yourself!   

Chuck Butler

 

April 1, 2020 

* Currencies drift on Tuesday, but Gold gets whacked!

* Improving investor sentiment? Really? Come on! 

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! The trading in Gold yesterday, was right up there with what I spent the better part of yesterday talking about… I shake my head in disgust, and disbelief, that this continues to carry on… It was a cooler day here yesterday, than the previous day, so I was only able to be outside for about 2 hours in the late afternoon… Hey! It’s April Fool’s Day! I would have to think that the April Fool’s pranks will be muted this year, given the dire situation of having to stay home by yourself, or with spouse, partner, whomever! Quite a few years ago, I wrote a note and left it on the kitchen table telling Kathy that I was sorry but I had dented the rear panel on her car, and that she should go out and look at it…. When she got there, I had taped a note on the rear panel that said, “April Fools!” …. That’s probably about the best I can do…. I’m not a prankster, a joker yes, smart Alec yes, but prankster, no… The Beatles greet me again this morning with another good morning song titled: She’s Leaving Home…. For those of you not familiar with this classic, it starts out… Wednesday morning at 5 o’clock as the day begins…. 

And Welcome to April!  March came in like a lamb, and went out like a lion, for sure, but…. Things are only going to get worse, folks… I hope you’re tired of hunkering down, because, this is going to go on for much longer, as the dark clouds gather, to bring the rain for our parade… 

OK… Well the currencies drifted yesterday, but Gold got whacked! And I mean Whacked! My old football coach had a wooden paddle with golf ball sized holes drilled through it to allow a good whacking with wind resistance…. I never experienced the feel of this paddle, but I saw many a player receive the paddle… And that sound it would make would be like the sound that hit Gold yesterday….  (The old coach has passed on, so no letters claiming bad things are called for here, just wanted to give the whacking that Gold received yesterday a proper sound.)… 

Well, did you hear the new yesterday that China printed their PMI (manufacturing index) and it rebounded from a very low number below 50 to a number above 50? Let me see a show of hands from those of you who believe this to be true? OK, you, in the way back, why on earth would you believe this to be true? What’s that you say, you believe everything any Gov’t tells you? OK, is there anyone else, besides this sheeple in the back of the room? The good news that came with this was that the Global Growth currencies of Australia and New Zealand both took the news and used it to rally on the day…

One of the things that keeps coming back into my brain yesterday, was a quote on the Kitco.com site, where they said that Gold was getting sold yesterday due to “investor sentiment improving”…. Really? They really believed that? Consumer Confidence fell from 132 in April to 120 in March, and they think investor sentiment is improving? I’m not buying it…. This was a engineered price take down by the price manipulators, it’s as obvious as a streaker running down the street! What on earth would investors be feeling good about? Stocks were down again yesterday, and the prospects for more Central Bank “planning” is growing by the hour….

You know another thing that just gets my goat? Central Bank planning…. Hey! Think about this for a few minutes and then tell me I’m wrong about this…. Didn’t the Soviet Union use Central Planning for over 100 years? And didn’t the Communist Party of China do the same? And where did it get their economies? I’m just saying…. Why on earth would Central Banks of the Western Hemisphere think that they have the “handle on the right way to do Central Planning”? Ok, for those of you new to class and what to catch up on what I’m talking about….

Let’s take the Fed Reserve for a minute here…. They’ve really pulled out the big guns for dealing with the economic perils of a pandemic, haven’t they? But think about that for a minute, were they not already pulling out the big guns before the pandemic hit our shores? Why, yes, Chuck they were, now that you mention it… So, that was what all that pointing and yelling was about months ago, when the Fed was bailing out the banks with daily infusions of money in the repo markets? Geez, Chuck I wish you would have spelled that out in plain English for us non-market folks…

Come on, I tried, and tried to tell you that this wasn’t a good thing, and that it wasn’t temporary as the Fed Heads kept telling us! Well, on second thought, yes, you did do that, but…. I just thought you were crying wolf once again….

Don’t you just love when I have these conversations with “someone else”? Come on, stay with me here, we have lots more to discuss….

You know… There’s something going on that I want to get off my chest…. It’s these damn paper trades in Gold and Silver…. I hate you use that strong language, but how else would you, dear reader, know how frustrated I am with this c—? Yesterday morning I had to report that Silver had dropped to $13.95…. But if you called a coin dealer and asked him for a price of 1 ounce silver coin it would probably be $25…. Paper trades should be outlawed, if they aren’t being used in the proper form… To lock in a price, and then deliver or accept delivery…. Otherwise it’s a sham, a speculation, without delivery! I’m just so frustrated with these paper trades driving the prices of the commodities like Gold & Silver down…. Marin Katusa, the commodities guru, wrote on Twitter yesterday that the price ratio of Commodities to stocks was at an all-time low…. Beep, Beep, Beep…. What’s that you say? It’s the warning signal on my truck that’s backing up right now to load up on Commodities, because….. Inflation is coming folks…. And I mean real inflation, not stock market inflation or house price inflation, but real old-fashioned inflation, the kind that kicks you in the teeth, and robs you blind…. I’m just saying….

I hear tell that the lawmakers are talking about another $2 Trillion in aid to be doled out…. That would make our trip to $30 Trillion even easier to obtain, right? You can’t just keep throwing money at something like this, when will they get it? Yesterday, I saw a blurb from the White House saying that the experts there have the total deaths in the U.S. from the Pandemic to be 100,000 to 240,000… OK, I’m not making light of this pandemic folks, but let’s look at it and compare the pandemic to other things that kill people…. Like the one that’s near but not so dear to my heart…. Cancer…. There are 50,000 people a month that die from cancer…. So, 100,000 is just two months of Cancer deaths…. Or how about smoking? Google tells me that there are 480,000 deaths annually from smoking, including those with second hand smoke. So, 6 months of smoking deaths…. Do you see what I’m saying here, I’m not taking the pandemic lightly, I’m seriously washing my hands every hour and staying to myself for the most part each day… But where has all this effort to curb a disease been all these years? 

OK, I know that the last paragraph is going to tick off half my readers, but I just had to say it… Which is something that 100% of you have come to expect from me… I call them the way I see them folks… no beating around the bush, and no spin….  So, if you are mad at me for that last paragraph, keep reading because I’m sure you’ll find something you agree with! 

Well, well, well….. what have we here? Why it’s none other than “I see no future economic crisis in our future,” Janet Yellen…. This is why I love Twitter folks… People get on there and spew stuff that makes me wonder what they’ve been smoking! Yesterday, it was former Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, who had this to say…. “Highly indebted firms usually cut back a lot on investment & hiring…will make recovery more difficult” – Janet Yellen…

OK, but who left rates at zero until a couple of years ago, Janet? Who set up these Corporations to borrow at low rates? Not you? Balderdash! Yes, first it was Ben Bernanke that sent rates to zero, but then you held them there for most of your term! And now you say that these highly indebted firms are going to make the recovery more difficult…. Wait! What? I thought you told us a few years ago, that there would be no more crisis situations for us to worry about? These Fed Heads are crazier than loons folks…. There I said it, and believe you me, I wouldn’t have been even able to talk about this in my previous location!

So…. Goldman Sachs, aka Lola… says that GDP in the U.S. is going to fall 34%!  That’s surely upping the ante on the GDP forecasts isn’t it? First it was 5%, then 20%, then 24% and now 34%….  Just keep moving the goal posts, Lola, because this is going to get really ugly!  And we’ll begin to see the rot on the economy’s vine today when the ISM for March gets printed….  And like the old game of Limbo, the question will be “how low can it go?”   And then double that decline for the April print, because we only started the shutdown of the economy about mid-March…. It was March 12th, when we were told that we were attending the last Spring Training game, that all futures games were cancelled….  About a week later they closed our beach… And now I hear word that the management has to close the pool too!  Yeah, whatever the decline is in March for manufacturing, I think you can double it for April…. 

I think I erred yesterday when talking about the ISM (manufacturing index) print today, and said that last month’s print was 44, but that wasn’t correct, and I apologize for that error,  I errored and took the forecast for last month’s print… So, the forecast for this morning’s print is 44…  But what I said about two months of below 45 in this data set indicates we’re in a recession….  So, that much was right! 

Face masks are coming….  Basically, I believe the Gov’t is going to tell us soon that we are required to wear face masks….  Don’t have access to them? I’m sure your friendly National Guardsman will be happy to supply you with some…  

Well, let’s end this with a happy note today, eh?  Hey! Gold is up $17 in the early trading today, so Gold has that going for it, eh?  Up for 3 days, down big 1 day… Crazy, but the thing I keep coming back to here is that Gold is showing its true calling of being a safe haven asset… 

To recap… The currencies drifted yesterday and in the overnight markets, but Gold got whacked! And the sound was awful! There’s talk of another round of $2 Trillion for more stimulus…. Janet Yellen opens mouth and inserts foot, and of course Chuck is there to chronicle the whole thing!  Inflation is coming folks, the dark clouds are gathering, to rain on your parade…. So many printed dollars chasing so little goods….  

For What It’s Worth…. Longtime readers know my affection for anything Jim Grant says… I scour the internet to find quotes from him, because, well, he’s Jim Grant…. Need I say more? Well, this was found on zerohedge.com and is Jim Grant at his best…. And it can be found here: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jim-grant-warns-feds-all-actions-are-clear-and-present-danger-us-creditors

Or, here’s your snippet: “In a veritable treatise on all that was wrong with The Fed’s actions, Jim Grant – founder and editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer – was somehow allowed nine minutes on CNBC’s Squawk Box to put America straight on what we are facing and the consequences of these unelected and unaccountable officials terrifying experiments.

Grant began by slamming Jay Powell’s seemingly blinkered proclamation that “he sees no prospective consequences with regard the purchasing power of the dollar” as “very concerning” adding more pertinently that he thinks “that wilful ignorance is a clear-and-present-danger for creditors of The United States.”

It appears his fears are starting to be warranted as USA Sovereign credit risk is rising…

Grant, whose wife is a physician, reminded the anchors that the current actions (and consequences) have a direct analogy with the opioid crisis, as “in the early 2000s, the medical profession got it into its head that pain was the vital sign, and that no one ought to be in pain… this led to the deadly over-prescription of opioids.”

Simply put, credit and equity markets “have become administered government-set indicators, rather than sensitive- and information-rich prices… and we are paying the price for that through the misallocation of resources.”

Grant ends on a hanging chad of a rhetorical question “what do corrections correct? Is there no salutary role for recessions and bear markets?”

Of course there is, he answers, “they separate the sound from the unsound, they separate the well-financed from the over-leveraged and if we never have these episodes of economic pain, we will be much the worse for it.”

Chuck again…. Yes, you’ll get more from the link as this was a snippet of a 9 minute video there…. Be sure to check it out….

Currencies today 4/1/20 American Style: A$.6073, kiwi .5915, C$ .7025, euro 1.0941, sterling 1.2390, Swiss $1.0355, European Style: rand 17.9720, krone 10.2997, SEK 9.9834, forint 335.03, zloty 4.1784,   koruna 24.9545, RUB 78.69, yen 107.55, sing 1.4334, HKD 7.7571, INR 75.80, China 7.0875, peso 24.13, BRL 5.1942, Dollar Index 99.60,  Oil $20.63,  10-year .61%, Silver $13.98, Platinum $719.72, Palladium $2,352.77, and Gold… $1,593.91

That’s it for today…. but not this week! For the first time in 3 months I won’t have to get up early on Thursday, and drive 55 minutes north to the wound center in Port St. Lucie!  So, I’ll be back full of joy and stories of miracles tomorrow, HA! I was supposed to go for a scan next week, my first one in 4 months, but they called me to postpone it 6 weeks!  I have a sneaky feeling that in 5 weeks they’ll be calling me to postpone it further out on the calendar!  I’m re-reading James Rickard’s book: The Death of Money… I like to re-read books now and then in case I missed something, and it appears I did either miss it or forget about it, in either case I’m glad I’m re-reading it!   Sam & Dave take us to the finish line today with their song: Hold On….   Which is very good advice for what we’re all going to have to do in the near future….  I hope I didn’t tick too many of you off today and I that you have a Wonderful Wednesday! Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

 

March 31, 2020

* Dollar bugs fight back in the overnight markets… 

* Is This All Chuck crying wolf again? 

Good day… and a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, day, whatever, of our self quarantine… The sun was much warmer yesterday, thank goodness, so I sat outside reading, eating lunch, and just enjoying the day… If I had sat outside that long in Florida, I would be sporting some red sun burn… but not here! The Missouri Sun is not as intense! Man I really wrote a lot yesterday! I think that today’s could be just as long, as I’m so frustrated with the lack of fundamentals… And I received a phone call from an old friend yesterday, I bet you can’t wait to see who it was the called me! HA! The Beatles greet me this morning with a beautiful song that’s just perfect for the early morning: Michelle…. My belle, these are words that go together well, my Michelle…

The currencies seemed to drift somewhat yesterday, with the euro slipping a bit, but the Aussie dollar (A$) and kiwi both climbing higher on the day.  However, in the overnight markets, the dollar bugs fought back and won back some lost ground, with the euro dropping back to a 1.09 handle, and so on…. I’m going to go all in on talking about the dollar in a minute, so get ready for that!…. I just wanted to take a minute here and talk about something I said in Orlando and the Orlando Money Show back in Feb. 2011…. I told people in that crowd that by the end of the current decade, the dollar would lose its reserve currency status… Well, the end of the decade came and went, without that happening, but…. But…. But, what do we have going on here? I can’t wait to talk about this! OK, so I was 6 months late… sue me! HA!

I had some good news come my way yesterday…. I was reading and looked up to see my phone lighting up with the name: Mogambo Guru calling me! WOW! It had been quite a few years since I last talked to the great Mogambo! Many Pfennig readers have sent me notes asking me how he was doing, and only because I celebrated a birthday last week, and so did he, that JMR Doug got us together once again! The great Mogambo told me that he stopped writing because there were no fundamentals in the markets any longer, no amount of economics background could prepare you for what was going on…. I told him I totally agreed, it had all become trader sentiment, with no fundamentals anywhere to be found, and with all markets manipulated in some fashion these days! We talked for about 30 minutes, so much to talk about… Family, health, markets, etc. I felt pumped up after ending the call! What a great guy! I feel so honored to be considered a friend….

Longtime readers might recall this story, but in case you forgot, here goes…. Many years ago, when writing a daily Pfennig I used a quote from the Mogambo Guru, and talked about how I loved reading his notes…. He then wrote in his letter about me, and my letter, and said, “ I don’t know why he decided to quote me, he never even sent me a fruit basket” After reading that, I called my friend Addison Wiggin at Agora Publishing, and asked him for the Mogambo’s home address, and sent him a fruit basket! He called me, we laughed until we cried, and a new friendship was formed!

OK… onward with the markets talk….  UGH!  

Recall me telling you yesterday that there was a Kentucky representative that attempted to get a voice vote on the Stimulus Bill, but failed, and then went on to say “if we’re giving away $6 Trillion why not $350 Trillion, and then give every citizen a big fat check for $1,000,0000?” Well, he was back in the news on the www.needtoknow.nets website…. Let’s check out what Rep. Massie had to say about the Stimulus Bill and how it’s going to fail….

“Thomas Massie explains that the Coronavirus stimulus bill will fail to restart the economy because it is based on the assumption that it will increase the production of goods and services, but you can’t increase something that is shut down by government decree no matter how much money you throw at it. Massie says regulations should be rolled back, especially for food, so local food markets can come back to life. Millions of dollars of produce now is rotting due to the closure of restaurants, and that is affecting many other businesses as well. Food shortages could result from this unprecedented strain on supply chains. He concludes that shutdown of the economy will cost more lives than the virus”

You know… I asked the question yesterday, “where is the Tea Party?” and I probably ruffled a few feathers, but in reality, where are they? They were supposed to be against more Government spending, and they were nowhere to be found, when the $2 Trillion stimulus bill was passed…. Wait! What? Yes, Americans need help… this Coronavirus has really knocked us for a loop…. But should we forfeiture the value of the dollar in doing so? Let me tell you this, the loss of the dollar as the reserve currency, is going to cost us much more, much, much more than having to not eat delivery pizza and other stuff for a few months?

I’m telling you now, so you might want to listen to me later, but I really would prefer that you listened to me now…. The Fed is going to be printing money unlimited…. They are going to be buying anything they want…. The Fed and Treasury have merged… This is all going straight toward, the loss of the dollar’s reserve currency… You don’t see it that way? Well, let me say this… Who was out there telling you that all that repo money the Fed was coming up with every day, was not a good thing? But the folks in the markets said, “it’s no big deal”…. But Chuck told you differently…. It was the air leaking out of the Fed’s Bubble….

So, let’s get down to the cheese that binds…. All this dollar printing is going to create debt…. Who’s going to pay for that debt? Not you, not me, right? Well, we will in a round about way… In my mind we’re going to see a huge run up of inflation… And this is going to bring us right back to the 70’s…. Only this time there will be no white knight to save the dollar… It’s going to take a major reversal of what we’re currently doing with the Fed, Treasury, Gov’t, etc. And I don’t see that coming… They can’t increase interest rates, they can’t reduce their balance sheet, and the dollar traders are seeing the writing on the wall… There’s no safety net here for the dollar, folks…. And when all the dust settles, you who have listened to me and protected your investment portfolio with Gold & Silver will be sending me notes, thanking me…. For all of you who thought I was the boy crying wolf…. Well, I hope the wolves are nice to you…

A few months ago, I talked about how I saw Stagflation returning 70’s style to our economy. With all the dollars that are going to be out there chasing goods that don’t exist, this is going to be very interesting…  

One of the things that I talked to the Mogambo Guru about yesterday was the Gold Market… You may recall his old saying about how “this investing stuff is easy, weeeee!” And then he’d talk about Gold & Silver…. He was very adamant about how the fundamentals are not in play right now with Gold…. And he would be exactly correct! I say that because over on Bloomberg.com they have an article titled: “the wild hunt for 100 ounce Gold Bars”…. The GATA folks sent me a note yesterday and they had a long essay about how physical Gold is sooooo difficult to find, and the U.S. is asking the Canadian Royal Mint to ramp up their production…. There’s no supply, but yet, Gold can’t get on a rally tracks and stay there!

One thing that sure is in play here folks is the old adage, that if you can’t get your hands on something it makes you that much more desperate to get your hands on it! People are paying huge premiums over spot for their Gold right now… It’s a crazy scene…

On a different front…. Russia announced yesterday that they are no longer going to be adding to their Gold reserves. The central bank didn’t explain the move, saying only that future decisions will depend on the state of financial markets…. See, they’re smarter than the average bear here folks…. They see the huge premiums that are being charged for physical Gold, and they’ve decided to sit on the sidelines until this all changes….

Longtime readers know that I’ve always told you to follow the money…. And in this case you might want to hold off on buying those Gold coins and bars right now…. Now don’t forget there’s a program that I’ve used many times in the past that my metals guru, Tim Smith at 1-800-926-4922 can explain and offer to you that can alleviate those huge premiums right now…. Give him a call and find out!

Gold couldn’t find a bid yesterday, and lost $4 on the day…. But…. for some unknown reason, the shiny metal is down $22 early this morning. This is the kind of trading I was talking about above…. What? Did the Fed announce that they were raising interest rates, and I didn’t hear about it? No! Of course they didn’t!  Yes, the Russian announcement yesterday could have caused some ripples, but not $26 worth of ripples!  Well, as I keep saying, buy the dips…. And this certainly appears to be a “dip”, eh? 

Remember during the housing crisis in 2007-08, when people were just leaving the keys to the house on the kitchen counter and walking away, never to return, thus giving their house and the equity they had it in to the bank?  Well, if this quarantine lasts much longer, I believe we’re going to begin to see that scenario play out once more…. And this time the credit cards with all their piled up credit card debt, will be left on the kitchen counter along with the keys to the house! 

Remember when I kept telling you that there were so many people out there that didn’t have $ in savings to help them in a rainy day? Well, the rain is pouring down outside for these folks right now…  Live by the sword, die by the sword….  I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard doesn’t have much for us today, but tomorrow, we’ll see the March ISM (manufacturing index) which in Feb, before the COVID-19 virus hit our shores, this index had already fallen to 44….  There’s an old adage out there in fundamentalism land, that says that two consecutive months below 45 indicates a recession….  So, all eyes will be on this data tomorrow… 

Before I head to the Big Finish today, I have this thought for you….Well… once again, I’m going to say “I told you so!” Remember a couple of weeks ago when I told you that the National Guard would be called out to make sure we stay in our houses? Well, this came in my in box yesterday, check it out! “All 50 of the nation’s governors have declared emergencies in their states and now many are starting to activate their Air and Army National Guard to help deal with the growing coronavirus pandemic.

There are now more than 11,400 Guard troops mobilized in the effort to cope with the coronavirus pandemic, officials said Wednesday afternoon.
Governors across all 50 states, Puerto Rico, Guam, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Washington D.C. have each mobilized components of their Army and Air National Guard to assist in their state’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

In addition, eight states have now approved the use of Dual-Status Commanders, giving them the authority to command active and reserve component troops under control of a state’s governor. As a governors’ response to the coronavirus pandemic continues to evolve, so does the Guard response.

“Americans should know the National Guard has their backs throughout this crisis. We’re in this together, and we’ll get through this together,” said Gen. Joseph Lengyel, Chief of the National Guard Bureau.”
Well, I have this question for you General…. “if the Gov. tells you to go patrol the streets and have checkpoints for passers through, will you obey those orders?” Because if you do, then that takes out step 5 of Bill Gates Pandemic reaction plan…. I’m just saying…  

To recap…. the currencies drifted yesterday, but got sold overnight, as the dollar bugs fought back… Gold lost $4 yesterday, but is down $22 this morning, and Chuck and the great Mogambo Guru, are lost on why this is happening…  Chuck is also in agreement with Representative Thomas Massie, that the Stimulus Bill isn’t going to amount to much for individuals…. And Chuck talks to the great Mogambo Guru! 

For What It’s Worth…. Thanks to longtime reader Bob who sent me the link to this article, and it’s written by a guy that sounds like he’s been reading the Pfennig for years, as he goes after the size of debt in the country… And says: ‘The Fed can’t fix what’s broken” and it can be found here: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-the-fed-cant-fix-whats-broken/

Or, here’s your snippet: “he Federal Reserve is poised to spray trillions of dollars into the U.S. economy once a massive aid package to fight the coronavirus and its aftershocks is signed into law. These actions are unprecedented, going beyond anything it did during the 2008 financial crisis in a sign of the extraordinary challenge facing the nation.” – Bloomberg

Currently, the Federal Reserve is in a fight to offset an economic shock bigger than the financial crisis, and they are engaging every possible monetary tool within their arsenal to achieve that goal. The Fed is no longer just a “last resort” for the financial institutions, but now are the lender for the broader economy.

There is just one problem.

The Fed continues to try and stave off an event that is a necessary part of the economic cycle, a debt revulsion.

John Maynard Keynes contended that:
“A general glut would occur when aggregate demand for goods was insufficient, leading to an economic downturn resulting in losses of potential output due to unnecessarily high unemployment, which results from the defensive (or reactive) decisions of the producers.”

In other words, when there is a lack of demand from consumers due to high unemployment, then the contraction in demand would force producers to take defensive actions to reduce output. Such a confluence of actions would lead to a recession.”

Chuck again…. One of my fave sayings is: “You can’t fix stupid”…. And I bet you can guess what group of non-elected people I’m talking about here, eh?  I’m just saying….

Currencies today 3/31/20 American Style: A$.6090, kiwi .5935, C$ .7015, euro 1.0937, sterling 1.2347, Swiss $1.0335, European Style: rand 17.8728, krone 10.4841, SEK 10.1229, forint 328.69, zloty 4.1562,   koruna 24.9335, RUB 79.53, yen 108.63, sing 1.4268, HKD 7.7532, INR 74.78, China 7.0954, peso 23.80, BRL 5.1327, Dollar Index 99.86,   Oil $21.64,   10-year .69%, Silver $13.94, Platinum $718.68, Palladium $2,330.32, and Gold… $1,600.30

That’s it for today…  Well, how’s everyone getting along in their quarantine… You know I read somewhere that quarantine is from a Latin word that means for 40 days!  So, if we use the word correctly, we’ll all be secluded in our homes for 40 days!  Well, next week is the Holy Week, for Catholics, which ends with Easter, I know for one I’ll miss seeing the grandkids all dressed up in their Easter outfits… But I guess I should be thankful that we now have facetime on our phones and tablets!  And this new thing called Zoom….  We get all the family members on it and we can see each other and talk… pretty cool…    Ok… stay healthy… wash your hands so often that your fingerprints start to disappear!  America takes us to the finish line today with their song: Lonely People….  Seems like an appropriate song, eh?  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday, and will promise to Be Good To Yourself!   Wash those hands! 

Chuck Butler

 

March 3o, 2020

* Currencies finish the week on a high note!

* Chuck tries to make heads or tails of what’s going on… 

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, after visiting the Port St. Lucie Wound Center on Thursday, and seeing that the graph they had put on my leg wound, had taken, and they were happy as a lark about it, but then learned that they were shutting down the center, and I would have no where to go from there, I decided to rent a car and drive home…. So, we rented a large SUV and carted back tons of stuff that we would need in our little river town home. It took 17 hours of driving but I was up to the task! I did 14 hours on Friday, and finished it up with 3 hours on Saturday morning. We then dropped off the rental, and hunkered down in our house, for the next couple of weeks… Saturday was gray, chilly, rainy, and an overall ugly day, and I immediately missed the sunshine of Florida! But, now I’m home, close to my doctors should something go awry, and Kathy is much more at ease…. Steely Dan greets me this morning with their song: Do It Again…. Which I would drive the distance again, no biggie!

Well, well, well, where do I start? There’s been so many things that have happened since we last talked last Wednesday… I really don’t know the best place to start, so I’ll just go with my normal start and see where it takes us today… I have the feeling that I’ll be writing a very long one today, with all the c— I’ve read since Wednesday! So, fill the coffee cup, and get settled this is gonna be a long one!

The currencies had a good week last week, for sure! The euro, which a week ago looked like it was headed down an ugly road, as it traded with a 1.07 handle, rallied throughout the week and ended the week with a 1.11 handle! The Aussie dollar, which last Monday was trading with a 59-cent handle is now trading with a 61-cent handle, and so on….  In the overnight markets, the euro has given back some of those gains from last week, and is back to a 1.10 handle….  But, inquiring minds want to know…. What caused this major selling of the dollar?

Well, that’s where things begin to get a jumbled up, folks, because there have been so many announcements of new measures, that I just don’t know where to start, so….. This is where I’ll start, and then move on….

OK, late Friday afternoon, the so-called Stimulus Bill, was signed by President Trump… This was no time to mess around with vetoes and such, but was the Bill, that was supposed to bring relief to American citizens that needed cash because they were out of work due to the Coronavirus measures, really going to do just that? Oh my goodness no! There were so many “pork bills” added to the Stimulus measure that it brought it up to $2 Trillion…. Let’s see now $2 Trillion divided by every citizen 330 Million, wait! I cant’ even get my phone’s calculator to go that high! So, let’s just say for good measure that, if the stimulus bill was ONLY for stimulus we’d all be getting a big fat check in the mail… But wait, when the beans have all been counted, there’s only $290 Billion allocated for checks to citizens…. Oh, you want to know what the other stuff was? Well, let me break it down for you…. $538 Billion for Big Businesses, banks etc. , of which $61 Billion is specific to the airlines….. $290 Billion for checks to citizens, and another $290 Billion in tax cuts, and then $385 Billion for “miscellaneous, and here’s where it gets dicey folks…. Oh, but wait, there is $25 Million allocated to the Kennedy Center…. What the hell does that have to do with the Coronavirus Pandemic? I shake my head in disgust, folks….

OK, on top of the $2 Trillion in extra debt that we’ll be adding this year… Did you hear about what the Fed has been given? Ok, hold onto to your seats here….. First of all the Fed was granted a waiver to suspend the Sunshine Law for their meetings…. Not familiar with the Sunshine Law? I as a former Alderman for my river town, know all about the Sunshine Law! Basically, the Fed can now hold meetings to discuss who’s getting what, in private, and not have to report who gets what, in the terms of bailouts, to the public! Ok, I hear you saying, that’s bad, but what amount are we talking about here? How about $4.5 Trillion?

So, by my back of the napkin calculations…. The Debt in this country is headed to $30 Trillion by the end of this year…. That’s $23.6 Trillion now on the books, plus $6.5 Trillion that’s going to be used to pay off the people from rioting, and that’s exactly what that $290 Billion is all about folks, there’s no two ways about it!

So, a representative from Kentucky, who tried to delay the vote on the Stimulus bill to ask questions about it, but failed, did say if we’re going into debt by $6.5 Trillion why not make it $350 Trillion, and then send a check for a $1 Million to each citizen?

You know, I believe that Japan has showed us that debt doesn’t matter until it does…. And that’s where we are here in the U.S. We have become comfortably numb with the numbers that are spewed out nearly every single day now, that up the ante on our debt… But one day, sons and daughters this is going to become a very BIG DEAL… And when it does… Got Gold?

Yes, I believe that there are some in Congress that want to do the right thing here, but they are so far and few in between that it just doesn’t mean anything any longer…. What happened to the Tea Party?

So, that’s the beginning strokes on what has happened since last Wednesday, should I go on? Isn’t that enough, to make your dander stand up? OK twist my arm…. I’ll continue….

I really got angry when I heard/ read this piece the other day…. “These are all temporary measures, that will abate once the pandemic is gone”…. Really? You mean you hadn’t been watching the Fed’s moves before the COVID-19 virus was still a China “thing”? The Fed was pumping Billions of dollars into the repo market on a daily basis, and no one but me, was asking what the heck was going on? The Fed’s bubbles that they had been blowing since 2000, were already leaking air, and they were ready to pop, folks…. Trust me on that statement…. I kept telling you that things were going awry, just watch the Fed’s actions and the bond market moves, and then asking if you had Gold….

I bet some of you were thinking, “Oh that’s just Chuck carrying on again about debt, and making mountains out of mole hills” And that’s fine…. But now you’ve got to see the writing on the wall, right? Chuck wasn’t just carrying on again! He was warning you of all this, and this COVID-19 virus has just added to the air leaking out of the Fed’s latest bubble…. Stocks were so overvalued that it bordered being ridiculous…. All markets are manipulated now, and still they can’t get the results from stocks if they came in with…. a bazooka and blew away the sellers!

Another thing I kept harping about being bad for the markets is the stock buybacks by Corporations… They have helped pump air into the stock market’s bubble, to the tune of $4.5 Trillion…. Imagine, ( a great song) if you will that instead of buying back their corporation’s stock, that the $4.5 Trillion was put into their Corporations, buying equipment, production lines, paying workers, expanding their trademark, etc. Wouldn’t we be far better off at this point in the proceedings that we are? I sure think we would be! But Bubble blowing has been our favorite thing to do since the dot.com’s …. 

This coming Blowup was as noticeable as a man with a hatchet in his forehead, but people just kept buying…. Thinking the Fed had their backs, and the Fed tried, but just like Humpty Dumpty, All the Fed’s men and all the Fed’s plans couldn’t put the stock market back together again….

Did you know that Bill Gates, held a conference last year, and mapped out the steps that would be taken in a pandemic situation? Each step has been taken up to the “blame Trump” step, with the next two being, no wait, let’s first go through the steps…. 1. Fear…. 2. Information censorship… 3. Shut down and social distancing… 4. Blame Trump… and now the next two… 5. Martial Law and checkpoints… and 6. Vaccines….

Now, I could very well put on my tin foil cap right now and talk about all the things that could go wrong with Vaccines, but let’s try to keep this a family letter, and say that it won’t get that far….

Speaking of tin foil caps…. Here’s a rumor that was going around on Twitter this past weekend, that has my spider sense tingling, and it was taken from an article posted on Bloomberg.com check this out if you dare….

“According to the Bloomberg piece, the Fed will finance a special purpose vehicle (SPV) to allow them to buy commercial paper, asset-backed securities, corporate bonds and bond ETFs in the secondary market:

“The Treasury, using the Exchange Stabilization Fund, will make an equity investment in each SPV and be in a ‘first loss’ position. What does this mean? In essence, the Treasury, not the Fed, is buying all these securities and backstopping of loans; the Fed is acting as banker and providing financing. The Fed hired BlackRock Inc. to purchase these securities and handle the administration of the SPVs on behalf of the owner, the Treasury.

“In other words, the federal government is nationalizing large swaths of the financial markets. The Fed is providing the money to do it. BlackRock will be doing the trades.”

Chuck again… this would basically merge the Fed and Treasury together, thus ending the Fed as we know it… But even the Fed as we knew it would be better than a merged Fed and Treasury, folks! Trust me on that one…. At least the way it is now, we can see what the Fed does, and trade off of it…. I’m just saying….

OK…. Back to our normal programming…. I told you this would be a long one! Gold had a good week last week, and looks to be heading higher from the looks of things… And why wouldn’t Gold be heading higher? Debt is exploding higher, there are so many “unknowns” that Gold is the only real thing out there these days…. Of course I also mean Silver, but longtime readers know that I include Silver when I say, “Gold”….

The one thing I do feel best describes where we are right now in this country, is that… it’s impossible to keep up with who’s getting what, when and by how much… The important thing for us to recognize, is that we’re only just getting started… I mean that truly! We’re just getting started, even with the huge bazooka the Fed used last week! 

I read this past weekend that the Gold mines have reopened, but the lack of supply in Gold & Silver has to be so behind, that it’s almost ahead! HA! So, it will take some time to iron out the supply chain problems here…. That should keep Gold & Silver well bid, in my book any way!

OK, another reason for the dollar’s plunge last week was the weak economic data…. For instance, remember the U of Michigan Consumer Confidence index? That’s a blast from the past, right? I had thought they stopped printing it! But apparently not, because the report showed the largest one-month drop in March! This data set hadn’t seen a one-month drop like the one this month since Rocktober 2008!!!!!! That should just about tell you where the consumer’s thought are….

Also, the Moody’s Upgrades and Downgrades report last week showed the downgrades going from 0 to 69 in one week! Now that Has to tell you something, right?

The Data Cupboard also had the first week’s effects of the Covid-19 business shutdown…. 3.28 Million people filed for unemployment in one week! That’s 5 time, let me say that again 5 times the previous 1 week record! That was amazingly quick, eh? What’s in store for us this week? I saw where a Fed Head said that he saw unemployment reaching 20% here in the U.S.!!!! And once again the mantra is that “this is only temporary”…. Would that be the same “temporary” as the announced moved from a Gold Standard was supposed to be? I’m just saying…

To recap…. It’s a crazy mixed up world we live in… as they say “may you live in interesting times”…. But the world’s financing is changing right before our eyes folks… Have you gotten your journal to keep track of things daily like I suggested last week?  The currencies have shown some life in the last week, along with Gold…  And all these things going on are weighing heavily on the dollar….

For What It’s Worth…. OK, with all that’s going on, this article will only add to the madness….. It’s a well respected analyst, Ray Dalio, and his report on LinkedIn,  It’s quite long… and it can be found here: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/changing-world-order-ray-dalio-1f/

Or, here’s your snippet: “I believe that the times ahead will be radically different from the times we have experienced so far in our lifetimes, though similar to many other times in history.

I believe this because about 18 months ago I undertook a study of the rises and declines of empires, their reserve currencies, and their markets, prompted by my seeing a number of unusual developments that hadn’t happened before in my lifetime but that I knew had occurred numerous times in history. Most importantly, I was seeing the confluence of 1) high levels of indebtedness and extremely low interest rates, which limits central banks’ powers to stimulate the economy, 2) large wealth gaps and political divisions within countries, which leads to increased social and political conflicts, and 3) a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US), which causes external conflict. The most recent analogous time was the period from 1930 to 1945. This was very concerning to me.

As I studied history, I saw that this confluence of events was typical of periods that existed as roughly 10- to 20-year transition phases between big economic and political cycles that occurred over many years (e.g., 50-100 years). These big cycles were comprised of swings between 1) happy and prosperous periods in which wealth is pursued and created productively and those with power work harmoniously to facilitate this and 2) miserable, depressing periods in which there are fights over wealth and power that disrupt harmony and productivity and sometimes lead to revolutions/wars. These bad periods were like cleansing storms that got rid of weaknesses and excesses, such as too much debt, and returned the fundamentals to a sounder footing, albeit painfully. They eventually caused adaptations that made the whole stronger, though they typically changed who was on top and the prevailing world order.

The answers to this question can only be found by studying the mechanics behind similar cases in history—the 1930-45 period but also the rise and fall of the British and Dutch empires, the rise and fall of Chinese dynasties, and others—to unlock an understanding of what is happening and what is likely to happen.[1] That was the purpose of this study. Then the pandemic came along, which was another one of those big events that never happened to me but happened many times before my lifetime that I needed to understand better.

While it might seem odd that an investment manager who is required to make investment decisions on short time frames would pay so much attention to long-term history, through my experiences I have learned that I need this perspective to do my job well. My biggest mistakes in my career came from missing big market moves that hadn’t happened in my lifetime but had happened many times before. These mistakes taught me that I needed to understand how economies and markets have worked throughout history and in faraway placesso that I could learn the timeless and universal mechanics underlying them and develop timeless and universal principles for dealing with them well.

The first of these big surprises for me came in 1971 when I was 22 years old and clerking on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange as a summer job. On a Sunday night, August 15, 1971, President Nixon announced that the US would renege on its promise to allow paper dollars to be turned in for gold. This led the dollar to plummet. As I listened to Nixon speak, I realized that the US government had defaulted on a promise and that money as we knew it had ceased to exist. That couldn’t be good, I thought. So on Monday morning I walked onto the floor of the exchange expecting pandemonium as stocks took a dive. There was pandemonium all right, but not the sort I expected. Instead of falling, the stock market jumped about 4 percent. I was shocked. That is because I hadn’t experienced a currency devaluation before. In the days that followed, I dug into history and saw that there were many cases of currency devaluations that had similar effects on stock markets. By studying further, I figured out why, and I learned something valuable that would help me many times in my future. It took a few more of those painful surprises to beat into my head the realization that I needed to understand all the big economic and market moves that had happened in the last 100+ years and in all major countries.”

Chuck again…. OK, this is very long article but well worth the time it takes to read it, believe me, on that one! I hope you have the time to get through it all, Ray Dalio is very good at what he does and says…

Currencies today 3/30/20 American Style: A$.6130, kiwi .6007, C$ .7070, euro 1.1058, sterling 1.2433, Swiss $1.0455, European Style: rand 17.8212, krone 10.5808, SEK 9.9754, forint 324.28, zloty 4.1076,    koruna 24.6508, RUB 78.71, yen 108.00, sing 1.4244, HKD 7.7539, INR 75.00, China 7.0853, peso 23.82, BRL 5.0965, Dollar Index 98.96,  Oil $20.33,   10-year .64%, Silver $14.05, Platinum $731.18, Palladium $2,240.13, and Gold… $1,621.73

That’s it for today… I told you I was going to get carried away this morning!  The thing that I think gets lost among the stock jockeys and non-Gold holders is this…. All these bailouts, and it certainly seems as though everyone under the sun and moon is going to receive a bailout, the only way this gets done, is to create dollars out of thin air…. That’s right the dollar creation machine is going to be doing some heavy lifting…. So, think about that for a minute… What did they teach you in high school? That when you have a lot of something that the price drops, right? Well, so a “lot of dollars” are going to be created from thin air…. Just what do you think that’s going to do the dollar’s value? A fave saying of mine when we’re out and spending money is that, “not to worry it’s only money”…. But in this case, we had better begin worrying, folks, because… our currency is about to get sent to the currency woodshed….   I just had to finish with that… sorry about that for all of you who just read the first and last paragraphs!  Jimmy Buffett takes us to the finish line today with his song: Stars Fell On Alabama….   I great “morning song”…  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday, and please Be Good To Yourself… And Practice social distancing!  and keep your hands washed! and be healthy! 

Chuck Butler

March 25, 2020 

* Currencies, can’t add to Tuesday’s gains… 

* Chuck tells us the history of stimulus plans…. 

Good day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I had a so-so day yesterday, having to remain inside for most of the morning to answer email, etc. But by noon, I was outside in the sun, soaking up Vitamin D, and baking any remnants of the Coronavirus out of me, that is if there were any to begin with! I figure a guy like me with my health history, I’m a walking time bomb for this virus…. It’ll get me sooner or later. I’m hoping for later as I read last night that Doctors are having great success treating COVID-19 patients with a drug called: Hydroxychloroquine used in combination with Zithromax. And some are having success with just the Hydroxychloroquine…. So, more power to them and the drug! I know you didn’t open up the letter today thinking that I would spend the day talking about what the TV news guys have been talking about non-stop for days… The Coronavirus! So, I’m going to stop right there! Before I go any further, will you love me…. HA! A little Paradise by the Dashboard Lights for us this morning! And that was right out of my head! The actual song that greeted me this morning was from Bad Finger singing their song: Come And Get It…. If you want it here it is come and get, but you better hurry ‘cause it’s going fast….

I did a lot of reading yesterday… and in my reading I came across an article that talked about how the Coronavirus has shut down many Gold / Silver mines, and that’s creating a real shortage of metals, as the Gold chunks are not getting mined and sent to the mints to be fabricated/ coined or made into bars. I touched on this last week when I gave you instructions on how to still obtain physical Gold and hold it free of safekeeping charges…. If you happened to miss class that day…. I suggest you call my favorite metals guru, Tim Smith at 1-800-026-4922, and let him explain the program that does what I just touched on….

Oh, and Gold had another great day yesterday, marking two great days in a row this week…  Gold’s rise yesterday was $84!!!!!!  So, if you did miss class last week, and missed out on buying Gold about $100 cheaper than it is this morning, well… what can I tell you, other than, “You snooze, you lose”…. But there’s still time, so don’t you fret, ‘cause you aint seen nothing yet! At least that’s what I’m thinking is going to happen here….

Well, Chuck’s thoughts that maybe we were seeing Coordinated Currency Intervention 2.0 on Monday, saw some damaging moves in the currencies yesterday, as they moved downward, after it was erroneously said that the Stimulus Deal was nearing passage… The markets bit on it and took the bait and ran… But like I said it was erroneously stated, the Stimulus bill stumbled, and fumbled once again as this time it was another “addon” that got questioned….

So, I hear the drums beating this morning that the lawmakers finally passed a stimulus bill…. I don’t think, in the end it will make a hill of beans difference in the recession that’s now upon us… But it supposedly will get some cash into some peoples’ collective hands that have been told to stay home and not work….

In my opinion, you’ll be able to look back upon this at some point in the future, and throw it in the heap pile that includes, tax rebates checks, cash for clunkers, and a few other misguided stimulus programs….

Why am I so negative about this working? Because since 1995, I’ve listened to the Japanese talk about their newest stimulus plan to help pull the Japanese economy out of the dumps….  They did this over and over again, to where I don’t even pay attention to them any longer… Japan became the Boy Who Cried Wolf!   And where are they now 25 years later? Still in the dumps! And then add to that the fact that the previous stimulus plans by the U.S. Gov’t haven’t really amounted to much in the way of economic strength…. And mix it all together, and do the hokey-pokey and turn yourself around, that’s what it’s all a-bout!

I waded through a dozen or so emails from the Food Delivery companies, to restaurants trying to get get people to order food to be delivered or taken out…. They’re hurtin’ for certain folks…. This has go to get better for the restaurants soon, or they’ll be turning out the lights, ‘cause the party is over….

Longtime reader, Bob, sent me a link to an article about the Global economy. The article is very long, so it can’t be featured in the FWIW, today, but I can tell you that the guy was hitting on the same concept I was hitting on last week about the thigh bone connected to the knee bone, and the knee bone connected to the shin bone, when describing what it will be like if the Oil industry can’t make it…. We’ve already had one major Oil operation close shop… And there will be more, and all their suppliers, etc, down the line will be hurt too…. The same thing with the Global economy… A Tsnunami in Thailand can disrupt a sector, because of one item made there, and the shutting down of a pharmacy in the U.K. last year left the U.S. without a flu virus drug….

So, if you think about the global economy and how closely tied they are together, then you see what can happen, when the dominoes begin to fall in one area of the globe, but  is felt in another area completely across the globe! How did we get to this point? Well the article does explain how U.S. Corporations years ago, saw the opportunity to run more cost effectively by offloading their production line, and instead work on their marketing of the product….

Ok, enough of that discussion, but it all ties in with what I’ve been saying for so long now it was beginning to grow hair, and that is that the next recession is going to be a doozy…. Worse than the Great Recession of 2007—8…. You do remember that don’t you? The collapse of Lehman Brothers, who weren’t dealt with the same way a collapsing Bear Stearns was earlier…. Then the giant brokerage house Merril Lynch had to be bought by Bank of America? How the Chrysler bond holders were left holding the bag, as they had to get in line behind the Unions, (a deal worked by the then President) And so on…. It was really ugly, and quite a few corporations were teetering and close to extinction…. Well, this time they may not be so lucky, but then The Fed has their Unlimited QE going now and they’re open for business even for Corporate bonds! And ETF’s… And outright stock purchases will be next, as the Fed will then be in the business of deciding who gets a helping hand and who doesn’t!

So, the news of the Stimulus Bill passing, finally I might add, has Gold Traders taking profits this morning, and Gold is down $21 in the early trading…  But not to worry, folks…. as the FWIW article this morning will tell you… Use the dips in the Gold price as an opportunity to buy cheaper than it was….  

OK, I told you above that my thoughts on the Currency Intervention 2.0 were derailed by the talk of the stimulus bill passing, and now it has…. Now, what? Can the currencies continue to improve with the dollar rally being halted, for now?  I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see….  The Aussie dollar (A$) really rallied strongly yesterday and is trading with a 60-cent handle again…. I was really taken aback by the downward move in the A$ last week, when for a couple of days it traded at a cheaper price than its kissin’ cousin across the Tasman, kiwi…. But order has been restored, and these two are trading with the normal spread between them…. Whew!  

Even the beaten down Russian ruble got on the rally tracks for a bit yesterday… But with the price of Oil now trading with a $23 handle, this rally may be short-lived…  

The price of Palladium is back above $2,000 after getting the snot knocked out of it last week, the metal that is said to be in short supply, has returned to rallying….  But in reality this doesn’t play well in the sand with the thought that a very deep recession is upon us… but in this this day of opposites, maybe it does play well…. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had some very disheartening data, that usually isn’t paid much attention to, as it’s the MARKIT version of the ISM (manufacturing and services sectors indexes)…. the MARKIT version of services dropped from the sky folks… I mean it dropped from a 49 figure in Feb. to a 39 figure this month!  The actual manufacturing index from MARKIT also showed a drop below 50 to 49….  So, according to these folks, the economy is falling off a cliff… I’m just saying…

Today’s Data Cupboard will have the Durable & Capital Goods Orders for February, which was before the COVID-19 outbreak hit the shores here in the U.S. But that won’t help these two if they print the way I think they will, and that is both with a negative figure….  

Before I head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to mention something that I’ve talked about before that’s being brought up again… And that is what’s called a Debt Jubilee….  I saw an article by Paul Craig Roberts yesterday where he believes that this is the only way we can get out of the mess we’re in today….  For everyone’s sake, let’s not even begin to harbor thoughts of a Debt Jubilee being something real….   I’m just saying…

To recap…. The euro wasn’t able to hold its gains yesterday, after it was rumored that the stimulus bill was getting ready to be passed… A couple of currencies did rally, the A$ and rubles, and others but not so much to be noticed…  The Stimulus Bill DID pass last night and has caused some profit taking in Gold this morning, after the shiny metal gained $84 yesterday!  Chuck explains why he doesn’t think the Stimulus Bill will much affect on the recession we’ve now entered…. 

For What It’s Worth….  OK…. longtime readers know that I have this great dislike for Lola… (aka Goldman Sachs) But there are times when Lola, who gets what Lola wants, says things that I agree with… And today’s FWIW, curtesy of the folks at MarketWatch, tells us that Lola is bullish on Gold…. And it can be found here: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-sachs-says-it-is-time-to-buy-gold-the-currency-of-last-resort-2020-03-24

Or, here’s your snippet: ” The current coronavirus-induced economic and financial market turmoil is seemingly the perfect environment for gold.

“We have long argued that gold is the currency of last resort, acting as a hedge against currency debasement when policy makers act to accommodate shocks such as the one being experienced now,” said analysts at Goldman Sachs led by Jeffrey Currie.

Yet while the yellow metal GC00, 1.222% has done far better than other assets, it has slipped 2% over the last month.

The Goldman analysts, with a 12-month price target of $1800 an ounce, said that is about to change, thanks to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive bond purchase plan unveiled on Monday, in which the U.S. central bank said it would buy as many Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities as needed to keep financial markets running smoothly.

“We are beginning to see a similar pattern emerge as gold prices stabilized over the past week and rallied [Monday] as the Fed introduced new liquidity injection facilities with this morning’s announcement,” they said.

The analysts that said with the Fed easing funding stresses, focus will likely shift to the large size of the Fed balance sheet expansion, increase in developed market fiscal deficits and concerns about the sustainability of the European monetary union.

“We believe this will likely lead to debasement concerns similar to the post [Global Financial Crisis] period,” they said. “

Chuck Again….  The important thing to remember folks, is when a Big Investment House such as Lola says you need to buy something it tells you that they are long the “something”, and they need you to buy to make their investment more profitable…..   But in this case, Lola is also helping investors who would normally not listen to anyone else but Lola…. I’m just saying… 

Currencies today 3/25/20 American Style: A$.6005, kiwi .5835, C$ .6937, euro 1.1825, sterling 1.1825, Swiss $1.0202, European Style: rand 17.4208, krone 10.8512, SEK 10.0676, forint 327.12, zloty 4.2188,    koruna 25.3050, RUB 78.76, yen 111.30, sing 1.4457, HKD 7.7537, INR 76.08, China 7.0694, peso 24.60, BRL 5.1113, Dollar Index 101.42,  Oil $23.62,    10-year .82%, Silver $14.22, Platinum $716.30, Palladium $2,015.10, and Gold… $1,610.84

That’s it for today and this week….  I really dislike having to end the week on Wednesday for writing, but with my current situation, I have no other choice… When I go home in  a couple of week, things might change, I don’t know my wound center schedule there yet…  I had a discussion on the deck yesterday with a couple of “stock lovers”…. Who thought the selling was done and they were buying again…. I just shook my head and thought, that they were going to get taken to the cleaners…. But they wouldn’t listen to me explain history of these things to them, so I just stopped talking and let them carry on…  So…. I’m excited to see what the Apligraph did in the last week, when I go to the wound center tomorrow….   Remember back in the day when you would get a CT scan or MRI and have to wait a couple days before they had the results?  Well, this is sorta like that, as they wrap up my leg in 4 layers of wrap and then each week they cut it off and see what’s going on with my leg…. And tomorrow I get to see that the graph did!  I’m so hoping that it took and has closed up the remaining two spots on my leg, so that this summer I can enjoy the pool once again, and stop having to wear this soft cast on my leg!   OK… The Band ACE takes us to the finish line today with their song: How Long…..  “how long has this been going on?” I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday and will Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

 

March 24, 2020

* Currencies finally show some life on Monday… 

* Chuck thinks this is currency intervention 2.0…. 

Good day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, the nurse at the wound center cut off my soft cast, and looked at the graph and said, “it looks great, you’ve had very little drainage to mess with it, and I’m looking forward to what the doc has to say on Thursday…. I was greeted at the wound center by a nurse with a forehead laser thermometer. I was told to stand still, so they could take my temperature. If I had a temp at 100 or above, I was to turn around and go home…. So, having passed the initial test, I then proceeded to the waiting room, only to find one chair… All the other chairs had been removed…. So, I would be the only one in the room! I loved that they took everything so seriously, as they should…. Jackson Browne greets me this morning with his song: For A Dancer…. “In the end there is one dance, you’ll do alone”….

Well, the currencies finally showed some life yesterday, but after moving higher all day, they gave back some of their gains at the end of the day… UGH! Maybe it was the news that the Fed is pulling out all the stops, and will now buy ETFs…. So, basically, the Fed is now the “lender of last resort” to Main Street, not just Wall Street! The Fed said that “aggressive action is needed” and that’s the reason they have begun “unlimited Quantitative Easing, or all investments buying, not just bonds, or in the end it’s really…. Printing a boat load of dollars to pay for this all…. And that “Unlimited QE” could be what scared some of the dollar bugs right back into their hole in the wall boards!

Gold had a good day, gaining $50 on the day, and is up another $35 in the early trading….  Hey! If the Fed and the U.S. Gov’t is going to throw the dollar under the bus, why wouldn’t Gold rise? I have a longtime reader that gets angry with me when I say that Gold has gained on a day…. He always says that Gold didn’t gain, dollar’s lost…. Without playing semantics here, we’re both right!

Getting back to the currencies for a moment… Yesterday, I told you that my spider sense was tingling for a coordinated currency intervention, ala the Plaza Accord in 1985…  If you recall that time period, the dollar had reached some very lofty heights, and the Finance Ministers of the world met at the Plaza hotel in NYC and expressed their fears that the U.S. was getting to deep into debt. It was agreed at that meeting that the dollar would be weakened, and the German marks, Swiss francs, and Japanese yen would be bought.  This would be considered currency intervention 1.01…. 

From the action yesterday, I have the feeling that the coordinated currency intervention came in the form of Fed Announcements…  Let’s just call it currency intervention 2.0…..  I’m just saying, that things are pretty suspicious here, don’t you think? 

Did you hear what Fed St. Louis President James Bullard had to say yesterday? Well, here it is if in case you missed it: “Unemployment could reach 30% in the U.S.” – James Bullard…

And while all this was playing out before our eyes…. What did Congress do to help the mom and pops of the country who have been ordered to stay home and not work to get paid? Nothing, absolutely nothing! I was watching a news feed on TV on Sunday (no sports, what’s a guy to do?) And President Trump was saying, “The stimulus bill is ready to go, but I’m afraid what will happen is that every politician with an agenda will tryi to hang it on this bill”…. And I thought to myself, “no way this could happen at this time, Congress has to come together to provide life support now, they have to be able to see that politics can’t be played at this time”…..

Well, I guess I was wrong… Because that’s exactly what happened to the life support bill… Politics got played, and nothing was accomplished… So, you know those checks that POTUS and the Treasury Sec. were talking about last week, going out this week? Well, there’s been a delay…. Come on Senators and Representatives, this is not the time for these games to be played… Get it through your collective thick skulls, now!

The Fed can pull all the shenanigans it wants to, but none of what they are doing, and let me repeat that, none of what the Fed is doing, is going to help individuals one iota! Yes, the Fed is making sure the credit market is fully funded…. But what good will that be when there’s no cash in the bank to go buy groceries, gas and giggles? 

Being the smart Alec that I am… I just had an awful thought about the Fed’s “Unlimited QE”….  Does that mean that the Fed can buy old bicycles? I mean they’re trash…  And Cash for trash, is the moniker for the Fed’s programs…   Us poor taxpayers…. we will be expected to do the heavy lifting when the life support check go out, and they will, eventually… 

Let’s talk about the price of Oil and what’s going on there a bit…  I told you yesterday that Goldman Sachs thinks the price of Oil will fall to $15… But Shoot Rudy, why at $15, why not at $1?  Or $5?  Whatever it falls to will be welcomed at the gas pumps by individuals…  I saw something the other day that brought me back to when I was first driving many years ago… Competing gas stations catty-corner from each other having a gas price war, to see who could go the lowest in price!   There was one gas station down here with regular gas at $2.07 and the one on the opposite corner had regular gas for $1.99…  And the prices had just changed!  

I know this price drop of Oil is bad for all sorts of reasons, but the one good reason is that individuals get cheaper gas, at a time when they really need to conserve their funds…  

OK…  The U.S. Data Cupboard had a regional manufacturing index that was different that the two we saw last week that had collapsed in Feb. This time the Chicago Index was better than the previous print…  I don’t see how that could happen, given the rot on the vine of the Philly and Empire indexes…  But they say it happened that way, so I guess we have to take their word for it, right?  (HA! Trick Question! Of course we don’t have to take their word for it! They’re all ninnies in my book! ) 

I keep getting this gnawing feeling that I want to talk about something, but it’s not coming to me, so I guess I’ll just take my ball and bat and go home…. I mean go to the Big Finish! 

To recap…  The currencies finally showed some life yesterday, and Chuck thinks it was coordinated currency intervention 2.0…   The Fed has announced that they will buy anything from anyone that’s ailing… No wait, not just anyone, only the Casino Banks…  But that list now a-days is a ( in my best Elmer Fudd voice) Veerry, Veerry, long….  Have you seen a rabbit? 

For What It’s Worth…  Well… We all know Deutsche Bank is in trouble these days right? Shoot Rudy, when I was still with EverBank one of my monthly newsletters featured all of Deutsche Bank’s problems…  OK, so that’s established… So, when I saw this title in Ed Steer’s letter this morning, I just HAD to read it and include it in today’s FWIW…. This is an analysts from Deutsche Bank telling us that helicopter money will lead to disaster, but not for Gold….     It’s quite long….  And it can be found here: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/deutsche-bank-helicopter-money-will-be-disastrous-and-will-lead-hyperinflation-buy-gold

Or, here’s your snippet: ” Now that helicopter money has finally arrived, and bizarrely has brought with it that blast-from-the-past idiocy that is the trillion-dollar coin – which does nothing more than remind the population that money, like any other consensus construct, is just an illusion and depends on “faith and credit” and an increasingly grotesque one at that reliant on such “in your face” gimmicks as minting platinum coins to bailout the world – the discussions of what the monetary endgame (with even deflation god Albert Edwards admitting that his iconic “Ice Age” is about to melt under the red-hot heat of paradropped cash) will look like have begun in earnest.

Doing it part to kindle this debate, no pun intended, are Deutsche Bank strategist Oliver Harvey and Robin Winkler who have published a report covering the two aspects of the helicopter money debate. And since we are confident that readers can find the happy ending version on countless other pro-paradrop forums, typically those run by socialist “island-dwelling traders” who have never actually traded (and their drug-delivery skills it turns out were also dismal) and who have no concept of how money or credit actually works, we will focus on the one that captures accurately what will happen on short notice: hyperinflation.

So for everyone curious what the hyper-inflationary endgame looks like, here it is, courtesy of DB’s Oliver Harvey…

“It should worry us that policymakers and academics think providing massive stimulus is the solution. This is because policymakers appear to be attempting to shift demand back to where it was a couple of months ago, at the same time as holding supply fixed. To put it another way, if the government tries to keep spending at levels before lock-downs began, while at the same time keeping lock-downs in place, there will be simply more money chasing after significantly fewer goods and services. The result of this will be inflation, and a lot of it.

This might seem like an absurd argument given that market inflation expectations – the price of inflation linked bonds – have fallen since the crisis began. But, it is perfectly consistent to say that even though this crisis ultimately originated with a supply shock, the market has up until now expected demand to fall somewhat more in response. What matters is that at present supply is inelastic – unlike in traditional Keynesian formulations – because while the government might be handing out $100 dollar bills it won’t be allowing workers to work regular days, restarting flights or reopening factories until the virus subsides.

What would be disastrous is if governments embarked on New Deal style spending program via monetary financing at a time when it is imposing stringent supply constraints on the economy. The result may be hyperinflation, and end up doing more harm to people’s living standards than nothing at all.

A good hedge would be to buy gold, as well as inflation linked bonds in the U.S. and Euro Area, which are currently trading at all time lows.”

Chuck Again…. Yes, this guy is simply saying the same thing I’ve already said, that if the U.S. wants to throw the dollar under a bus, then Gold will be there to take over the dollar’s strength… 

Currencies today 3/24/20  American Style: A$.5935, kiwi .5803, C$ .6940, euro 1.0886, sterling 1.1788, Swiss $1.0289, European Style: rand 17.5705, krone 10.9067, SEK 10.1311, forint 321.61, zloty 4.2157,    koruna 25.4370, RUB 80.16, yen 110.47, sing 1.4460, HKD 7.7545, INR 76.04, China 7.0947, peso 24.67, BRL 5.0831, Dollar Index 101.15,   Oil $24.66,   10-year .81%, Silver $14.04, Platinum $687.84, Palladium $1,587.92, and Gold… $1,587.92

That’s it for today…. I remember now what I wanted to talk about, so I’ll save it for tomorrow. Only this time I’ll send myself an email note reminding me of what I wanted to say!  I was talking to my friend, Ski, yesterday, and told him how I had told people to start a journal of the daily events during the mortgage and financial meltdowns… And that I think it would be a good idea to start another journal recording the daily events during this crisis… One day you’ll be at a family function, and someone will say, “how’d that all happen again?” and you can pull out your journal and walk them through it! Otherwise all the facts get fuzzy, and exaggerated and so on…. So start your journal! What else do you have to do these days? HA!  The ocean this morning is as calm as a lake in the morning… But no one can be out there enjoying it! UGH! OK… a Big Time Classic this morning takes us to the finish line: Aliotta Haynes and Jeremiah sing their song: Lake Shore Drive…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday, and will Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler