Category: Uncategorized

• the dollar gets sold, and then bought with no change?
• soft landing my petunias!

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! My beloved Cardinals got another well-pitched game and this time they scored enough runs to win, and reward the pitcher with a W!  This will be the last Pfennig until next Wednesday, as I will be out of pocket Monday and Tuesday next week… Might as well get used to it, as in a couple of weeks I’ll be gone for 14 days, on my sojourn to Ireland… The world’s finances could go to hell in a handbasket during that time, but I’m not taking my laptop with me, so you’ll have to wait until I return to know the skinny…  Chris Stapleton greets me this morning with his big song: Tennessee Whiskey… 

I know, I know, you’re thinking, but that’s not rock and roll, Chuck! No, it isn’t, but it’s a song that I like and therefore it’s on my iPod! 

OK… Well, the Fed Heads left rates unchanged yesterday, and told the markets that they are only looking at one rate cut in 2024, and left the question of when that rate cut might come, open for the markets to figure out on their own…  

Here’s the chief Fed Head and his thoughts on rate cuts: ” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted at the press conference that the central bank does not yet have the confidence to cut rates, even as inflation has eased from its peak levels.”

A new Mr. Obvious!  We have a Wiener! I’ll say no more!

Well, first of all yesterday, we saw the May STUPID CPI, and it had inched downward, to 3.3% from 3.4%… Not the kind of movement in inflation that would warrant a rate cut… So, immediately after the report printed, and revealed such, the dollar began to get sold… And then when the Fed Heads said “no rate cut”, the dollar tried to come back, but at that point of the day, the “sell-the dollar” trade was the cat’s meow, and the BBDXY ended up losing 10 index points on the day… The euro returned to trade above 1.08, and the rest of the currencies took their small advances VS the dollar in stride… 

Gold also rallied yesterday, gaining $14 to close at $2,325.50, and Silver gained      to close at $29.85…   Now, we’ll have to see how the short paper traders see these gains… The price of Oil remained trading with a $78 handle yesterday, and the 10-year saw its yield drop again this time down to 4.31%… What on earth are the bond boys thinking? 

In the overnight markets last night… Well, taking that last statement about how the short paper traders saw the move yesterday, brings us to this morning, where Gold is down $25, and Silver is down 79-cents… The dollar has rebounded and is back to where it was before yesterday’s shenanigans… The euro slipped back below 1.08, and the only currency that shows a gain this morning is the Russian ruble… 

I guess the answer to the question above, is that the short paper traders didn’t like the upward move too much, and have decided to take action… 

The price of Oil slipped barely below the $78 handle this morning at $77.97, so no biggie move there, and the 10-year trades with a 4.32% yield this morning. 

I read on Reuters this morning that they feel like the markets are happy with the Fed Heads, and that a “soft landing” has occurred for the U.S. economy, and that they have inflation “under control”…  Hmmm… Do you call 14% inflation “under control”?    I don’t, I also don’t call it a “soft landing”, when manufacturing is still in a contraction area, and all the Special Oil Reserves have been drained, and, oh stop Chuck, these dear readers have read your rants every day, they know what’s going on here, it’s all window dressing for the election… 

So, did you know that there will be a “blackout period of stock buybacks?” I was just made aware of this and it will arrive tomorrow…  here’s the skinny: “this week is the final week ahead of the estimated blackout period. We estimate the upcoming blackout period will run 6/14 – 7/19.” And while as of Monday, Goldman estimates that around ~20% of stocks are in blackout ~50% are set to be prohibited from repurchasing their shares once the blackout period begins on Friday, June 14.”

That was taken from zerohedge.com… 

No wonder the stock market has been soaring in recent weeks, eh? I find these Corp buybacks, as something that should be banned outright… To me, if Corporations have money to spend, why aren’t they putting it back into their Companies?  Expand, hire, build, etc.   And it’s another reason that I won’t touch stocks that don’t have anything to do with mining and shipping… For all those stock valuations that are being driven by stock buybacks, are not real values, in my mind…  You can tell me I’m wrong, but I won’t listen, so don’t even try! 

The blackout period should become a real thing, and not for just a period of time… That would be down on the list of what I would decree if I were King… I’m just saying…

I wonder how the dollar bugs will take this news that came to me via the good folks at GATA: “”Due to the introduction of restrictive measures by the United States against the Moscow Exchange Group, exchange trading and settlements of deliverable instruments in U.S. dollars and euros are suspended,” the central bank said.”

Chuck again… Yes, dollars will still be able to be traded in Russia in the Over The Counter markets, but not being on the exchange should hurt the dollar’s exposure…  

And remember when the U.S. announced 100% tariffs on Chinese EV’s? Well, now the Eurozone has decided to place a 38% tariffs on Chinese EV’s… Citing that China has had excessive subsidies, and that needed to be changed… You know how I see this right?  it’s like the U.S. and E.U. Are poking a stick at the Big Bear… This doesn’t turn out good for the folks poking the stick, in my opinion… I’m just saying

Circling the wagons and coming back to the STUPID CPI print yesterday… For a comparison, John Williams at www.shadowstats.com has CPI at around 14%… The U.S. Gov’t and all their hedonic adjustments, have CPI at 3.3%…  Now that’s a HUGE differential there isn’t it? I’ve said this before, and I don’t change my mind very easily, But I’m pinning my colors to Shadowstats.com’s flag… 

Before we head to the Big Finish today, i wanted to note that the great Jerry West died at 86 the previous day… When I was a very young man, I got to go to a St. Louis Hawks NBA game, and saw Jerry West play, and was awestruck at how good he was… Yes, the Atlanta Hawks, used to be the St. Louis team… So, now we’ve had 1 basketball team leave, 2 football teams move, and we almost had our hockey team leave years ago… What’s up with that? 

The U.S. Data Cupboard was a real bummer yesterday, as it contained no fireworks…  And the Data Cupboard today, is basically empty, with only the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and PPI for May (wholesale inflation). I will admit that watching PPI is something that I do, for, as I’ve explained in the past, we’ll see consumer inflation from PPPI… I’m just saying… 

To recap… The dollar got sold, and then got bought right back again, as somebody got a wild hair, and thought that what the Fed Heads did, was bad for the dollar… No worries, everything is back to normal this morning… Chuck questions Reuters thoughts that the U.S. has reached a “soft landing” and that the Fed Heads have defeated inflation…  Yeah, right, and I’ve got a bridge to sell you! 

For What It’s Worth…  I found this yesterday, and thought to myself… If this isn’t FWIW worth, nothing is! It’s an article about the coming crash and it can be found here: Top economist predicts ‘crash of a lifetime,’ worse than 2008 (nypost.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “Harry Dent, the outspoken financial author and economist, isn’t reversing course from his bold “crash of a lifetime” declaration this past December.

Speaking in an updated interview with Fox News Digital, Dent cautioned that the “everything” bubble still has not burst, and it may be a bigger crash than the Great Recession.

“In 1925 to ‘29, it was a natural bubble. There was no stimulus behind that, artificial stimulus per se. So this is new. This has never happened,” Dent said Tuesday. “What do you do if you want to cure a hangover? You drink more. And that’s what they’ve been doing.”

“Flooding the economy with extra money forever might actually enhance the overall economy long-term. But we’ll only see when we see this bubble burst,” he added. “And again, this bubble has been going 14 years. Instead of most bubbles [going] five to six, it’s been stretched higher, longer. So you’d have to expect a bigger crash than we got in 2008 to ’09.”

“I think we’re going to see the S&P go down 86% from the top, and the Nasdaq 92%. A hero stock like Nvidia, as good as it is, and it is a great company, [goes] down 98%. Boy, this is over,” Dent stressed.

“We have never seen [the] government sustain a totally artificial bubble for a decade and a half, and see what happens after that,” he continued. “But I can tell you, there has not been one bubble, and this is far larger and longer, one major bubble in history that has not ended badly, period.”

Chuck again… I worked with Harry Dent for a short while when I was writing for the Sovereign Society… Man, that was a long time ago! Some you may recall the Currency Capitalist, and my weekly video rants I would send out to subscribers… I thought Harry Dent was “out there” back then, and it’s good to see that he hasn’t changed! 

Market Prices 6/13/2024: American Style: A$ 6643, kiwi .6172, C$ .7272, euro 1.0789, sterling 1.2776, Swiss $1.1155, European Style: rand 18.3753, krone 10.6150, SEK 10.4080, forint 367.43, zloty 4.0304, koruna 22.9106, RUB 88.08, yen 157.20, sing 1.3497, HKD 7.8106, INR 83.54, China 7.2526, peso 18.67, BRL 5.4140, BBDXY 1,264.74, Dollar Index 104.78, Oil $77.97, 10-year 4.32%, Silver $29.06, Platinum $949.00, Palladium $846.00, Copper $4.52, and Gold… $2,309.94

That’s it for today… And this week… Well, one week on the new chemo, and while I feel fine, I can’t stay awake during the day, the new chemo has really knocked me for a loop… I’m hoping that I get used to the new chemo and eventually all this sleeping goes away… My beloved Cardinals play a day game at Busch today, and then head to Chicago to play the Cubs this coming weekend… Cards/ Cubs are always good baseball games! England Dan & John Ford Coley take us to the finish line today with their great 70’s song: I’d Really Love To See You Tonight…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin; Thursday today, and please Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• the dollar returns to kicking tail and taking names later!
• The BRICS are turning into something that we should take notice of…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! The rookie sensation, Paul Skenes made quick work of the Cardinals bats last night, and the Cardinals lost to the Pirates 2-1… Too little, too late for the redbirds… UGH! I totally have been remiss with my birthday announcements this month, and completely forgot, my friend, Mike Kettler’s birthday on Monday! UGH!  Well, I hope you day was grand Mike! My second favorite Chicago song greets me this morning: Beginnings…  

Well, the overnight markets on Monday night brought about some dollar buying, and that momentum carried on throughout the day on Tuesday, with the BBDXY gaining 4 index points in the past 24 hours… The currencies took a small stride backwards,  and now everyone is on hold until today’s STUPID CPI And FOMC finalization of their two-day meeting… 

I just don’t know what the bond boys think they are going to get out of this meeting, but whatever it is, they are going to be disappointed, I’m sure… 

Gold used Tuesday as a turnaround Tuesday, and turned around the early morning loss, into a gain of $6 to close at $2,317.20, and Silver couldn’t find a bid to turn around it’s early morning loss, and ended the at down 19-cents at $29.34…   Even after last week’s engineered takedown, by the short paper traders, Gold is up 18% in 2024, and Silver is still up around 30% in 2024, so far… 

The price of Oil added another buck to its price and is back to trading with a $78 handle… See? I told you to get your automobile gassed up when the price of Oil was down to $75!   

I mentioned the bond boys above… The reason I did that, was we saw buying in the 10-year again yesterday, marking 4 consecutive days of buying and the 10-year’s yield ended up yesterday at 4.40%… I truly believe the bond boys are thinking that the Fed Heads will surprise the markets with a rate cut today…   Man, the stuff they’re smoking must be hallucinating! 

In the overnight markets last night…  The dollar was bought some more, with the BBDXY up 2 index points to start the day… But as I checked on the currencies they appeared to have shrugged off the dollar movement… I know, I know, very strange, but it is what it is…  

Gold is down $4 to start the day today, and Silver is up 4-cents, so in reality they are both flat to start the day, and I don’t think we’ll see much movement anywhere today, until the STUPID CPI prints and then later when the FOMC convenes their 2-day meeting… Yes, they have to return the board games to the shelves… 

The price of Oil has a $78 handle this morning, what just happened this week with the price of Oil, will be revealed at a later date, but for now, things are back to where they were before the price of Oil taking the Nestea Plunge, earlier this week. And the the 10-year’s remained with a 4.40% overnight, and will remain there until the fireworks start later this morning. 

I guess i need to address the FOMC rate decision that will come after all the board games have been put up… I really, can’t believe that the Fed Heads will cut rates today… Not after all the economic data that came through since their last meeting 6-weeks ago, that shows that inflation has not continued to go down, and has gone higher, and that wages have increased, and there are factions of the economy that seem to be OK…  So, there you have it… Chuck’s call on rates today… 

Yesterday, my friend, Rich Checkin, sent out a note to his clients about Gold & Silver, and I have it for you here: Like gold, silver slipped last week on news of a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report (which makes it likely that the Federal Reserve will continue to delay interest rate cuts). July silver futures dropped 3.3% last week and the front-month contract lost 6.1% on Friday. But like gold, silver is now regaining ground.

This pullback should be seen as an opportunity. Silver is still highly undervalued at current prices, and arguably, investors are missing out on potential gains. Silver gained 14% in May after rising 7% in April and gaining 8.9% in March, so with a clear positive trend established, there’s no better time to buy on the dip.”

Rich can be found at Asset Strategies… Rich and his uncle Michael Checkin, are dear friends of mine, with Michael always giving me words that I’m truly appreciative of… 

Ok, I think it was last week that I mentioned the “unrealized losses” that banks held ($517 Billion) in Treasuries and Mortgage Backed bonds… Well, yesterday on www.zerohedge.com it was another report on this: “According to the latest data from the FDIC, the U.S. banking system is sitting on $517 billion in unrealized losses due to deteriorating bond portfolios.

Unrealized losses triggered the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank in 2023.

According to the FDIC, unrealized losses on available-for-sale and held-to-maturity securities increased by $39 billion in the first quarter. That’s an 8.1 percent increase.

It was the ninth straight quarter of “unusually high” unrealized losses corresponding with Fed monetary tightening that started in 2022.”

Chuck again… Ok, the people that look at this with the rose colored glasses, say “unrealized is no big deal, as it’s only on paper”… But, Chuck says: “yes, they are unrealized, until they aren’t!”  I’m just saying… 

Circling the wagons back to a currency report, I found this on Bloomberg.com regarding the Mexican peso… “Mexico’s president-elect was set to inherit the world’s top performing currency. Instead she’s confronting a historic slump in the peso that’s casting a pall over her early days in leadership.

Claudia Sheinbaum struggled to address investor concerns Tuesday that the ruling party’s landslide election win will pave the way for measures to erode the judicial branch’s independence and allow a slate of constitutional changes to be pushed through quickly. Speaking at a news conference, she said the economy was stable and touted Mexico’s trade relationship with the US, even as the peso extended a drop. The currency is now down more than 8% since the June 2 vote, by far the world’s worst performer in that span.”

Chuck again… Who knew? Who knew that the election and change of ruling party would weaken the peso? The weaker Oil price doesn’t help the peso ward off the sellers either… 

The BRICS has an economic meeting in St. Petersburg, Russia, and here are the 3 main points that were discussed at the meeting: 

1. Putin showed how Russia still carries the potential to launch no less than nine sweeping – global – structural changes, an all-out drive involving the federal, regional, and municipal spheres.
2. That was arguably the major breakthrough in Saint Petersburg. Putin stated how the BRICS are working on their own payment infrastructure, independent from pressure/sanctions by the collective West.
3. It had to be, of course, about BRICS – which everyone, Putin included, stressed will be significantly expanded. 

Chuck again… Yes, there are currently plans for 59 nations to join the BRICS… What did I saw the other day, about it being an us VS BRICS? 

The eventual unification of all nations that want to join the BRICS, and a single unit to represent them will eventually bring about the end of the currency regime for the dollar… It won’t be next week, or next year, but it will come… Got Gold? 

Ok, want proof that the media is wrong about following the STUPID CPI report? This from CNN: The Fed is winning its battle against inflation. So why isn’t it cutting rates? | CNN Business

If the media would cover John Williams’ Shadowstats.com, they would see how wrong they are… But that would be investigative journalism wouldn’t it? And no one, does that any longer! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard had the The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index yesterday, and it reached the highest reading of the year in May at 90.5, a 0.8-point increase but still the 29th month below the historical average of 98.  a real non-market moving data print, but one that I truly believe should be more closely looked at by the markets.

Today’s Data Cupboard has the aforementioned STUPID CPI, and the culmination of the two-day FOMC meeting to discuss rates… I’ll be a monkey’s uncle if the Fed Heads cut rates this afternoon… 

To recap… The dollar continued the buying that started in the overnight markets, and finished the day up 4 index points in the BBDXY… The new regime in Mexico after the recent elections are being blamed for the peso’s plunge… The BRICS are becoming a real problem for nations in the West… I’m just saying… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, Singapore is moving upward these days, and this article tells us all about their move… And it can be found here: Singapore to lead the gold market, said the World Gold Council (cnbc.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “Singapore is set to become a leading gold hub as trading shifts east, according to the World Gold Council.

One key reason is that gold consumption in major emerging economies is rising, and a majority of these markets are concentrated in Asia, said Shaokai Fan, head of Asia-Pacific and global head of central banks.

Singapore’s proximity to these central banks, which are actively snapping up gold, is another factor, he added.

“The center of gravity of the gold market has shifted east, with Singapore, fortuitously placed as the potential fulcrum of this new balance,” Fan said at the Asia Pacific Precious Metals Conference held in Singapore.”

Chuck again… I would like to thank the good folks at GATA for sending me that link… I’ve always been intrigued by Singapore and how they set their interest rates and keep close tabs on their spending, and currency…  

On a sidebar: Singapore and Russia are the only two countries that matter, that have little to no debt… I find that admirable for a country… I’m just saying… 

Market Prices 6/12/ 2024: American Style: A$.6611, kiwi .6143, C$ .7273, euro 1.0761, sterling 1.2759, Swiss $1.1161, European Style: rand 18.6631, krone 10.6641, SEK 10.4613, forint 367.16, zloty 4.0331, koruna 22.9863, RUB 89.29, yen 157.32, sing 1.3425, HKD 7.8109, INR 83.54, China 7.2536, peso 18.90, BRL 5.3660, BBDXY 1,267.31, Dollar Index 105.22, Oil $78.82, 10-year 4.40%, Silver $29.38, Platinum $952.00, Palladium $887.00, Copper $4.50, and Gold… $2,313.40

That’s it for today… Well, 48 years ago today, I married the sweetheart of my life, my beautiful bride, Kathy… My bandmates sang a song that I had written for the occasion… I’ve told this story before, but here goes again… I met Kathy on the track at our high school, I was running track, and saw this beautiful red headed young lady practicing cheerleading. I stopped, and had to know who she was… I got her phone number and the rest is history…  In my eye, she’s still that beautiful bride… Eddie Money takes us to the finish line today with his song: I Think I’m In Love… Pretty appropriate song for today, eh? I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and will Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals rally on Monday…
• But get sold again in the overnight markets!

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! No baseball for me last night, so I vegged out for the night. Kathy was gone, and the house was quiet, so I basically fell asleep, and stayed asleep the rest of the night!  My mom would have called me “lazy bones”… But as I said many time in the past, I truly believe that your body tells you how much sleep you need…  Triumph greets me this morning with their song: Lay It On The Line… 

That’s what I do here every day that write! Lay it on the line! And we’ll see yet another example of that later in the letter today… 

Well, all the dollar buying ended yesterday, and the dollar ended up giving back the overnight gain, and finishing the day flat at 1,262… Gold continued to pick up the pieces of its year-long rally, and gain $18 on the day to close at $2,311.20, and Silver gained 62-cents to close at $29.77….  

It’s difficult to tell whether these gains in the metals were a result of a correction of an over-sell, or new buyers entering the market… I had read over the weekend that China didn’t buy any physical Gold in May… That could be a BIG reason why Gold floundered in May… Or, it could be the old saying for stocks, “buy in May, and go away”… 

The price of Oil gained back $2 yesterday, and ended the day with a $77 handle… Again, it’s difficult to tell whether the gain was a correction of an oversell, or new buyers… 

And the 10-year saw it’s yield drop 2 basis points on the day to close at 4.45%… The same question holds true here too… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar buying returned… What’s going on here? Well, to me it confirmed that yesterday’s backing off of the dollar was merely an overbought correction, and then last night they picked the ball up and ran with it again. The BBDXY gained 3 index points overnight, and the currencies look like they are returning to their sick beds… The euro is still feeling the effects of having its deposit rate cut by the ECB last week, as is the Canadian loon having the same feeling… 

I truly believe that these Central Banks (ECB, BOC) will rue the day they went ahead of the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel in cutting interest rates… I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see, eh?  Gold is getting sold as we start the day today, and is down $5, while Silver is down 54-cents… While these two metals showed signs of recovery yesterday, they just couldn’t hold on to it tightly… UGH!  

Speaking of Silver… The great Silver Guru, Ted Butler, (no relation that I’m aware of) announced that he stop his research business as he deals with a health problem… I wish him good luck, good health, and a quick return to his business of tracking the Silver market.  This news took me back to June 2007… When I was at home recovering from back-to-back cancer surgeries, and not writing…  So, you see, I get it… And wish him well… 

OK… Well, did you hear the news about Russia’s economy? You know the one that was supposed to be reeling by now after a couple of years of sanctions on them imposed by the U.S. and Europe?  Well, last week, it was announced that  Russia has now officially surpassed Japan for the 4th spot, according to the World Bank:  Ok, it’s important to know that after China, the U.S. and India, the numbers aren’t very large… But to move ahead of Japan is HUGE… The news didn’t move the ruble any, so maybe I’m making a mole hill out of an ant hill… Maybe… 

And I’m going long here, but what the heck? Remember Matthew Piepenburg? I used to use his entries on the vongreyerzgold.com site all the time… I think of him as the best thinker on markets that are out there… Well, he has  a new, very long, comment on the website, and I’m going to point you there so you can carve out the time to read it… But first, here’s a snippet of this letter: “So, yes there is tremendous reason for informed and genuine concern, but rather than wait for the end of the world, it would be far more effective to logically prepare for a changing world.

Rather than debate left or right, black or white, straight or trans, safe or effective, smart (Barrington Resolution) or stupid (Fauci), we’d likely serve our individual and collective minds far better by embracing the logical and tabling the emotional.

Toward that end, we’d be equally better off relying on our own judgement rather than that of the children making domestic, monetary or foreign policy decisions from DC to Belgium…

Logically speaking, the USD (and US of A) is changing.

Like its recent swath of weak leadership, the greenback and US IOU are quantifiably less loved, less trusted, less inherently strong and well…far less than they were at Bretton Woods circa 1944.”

Chuck again… Here’s the link, enjoy! Gold & Oil: Understanding Rather than Fearing Change – VON GREYERZ AG

G. Edward Griffin the author of the great book: The Creature From Jekyll Island, a book about the beginnings of the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, has really gotten into exposing the Gov’t’s Central Bank Digital Currency (BBDB’s)…  Here’s his lates post on them: 

“Bankers and governments across the globe are pusing central bank digital currency (CBDC) that can enable totalitarian control over money and trade. Forbes Magazine explains why Sweden, China and the Eastern Caribbean are leading the race toward digital currency (and control).
And talk about CBDCs that provide authorities with unparalleled power to surveil, control, and manipulate the financial existence of billions of people.” From needtoknownews.com 

Longtime readers will recall me telling you all about the Gov’t’s plan to introduce digital currencies to us when the next financial disaster unfolds… That was in May of 2020… Yes, it’s been 4 years, that the financial disaster has hung by the skin of its teeth, but its coming, I can feel it in the air tonight, oh Lord(Phil Collins)  Yes, everything seems askew right now, on one hand people are flying and eating out like it’s the best of times,  and on the other hand, more people are living from hand to mouth, and as Bill Bonner asked yesterday, what happens with the mouth is empty?”

That’s one of the reasons the short paper traders keep pushing back against gains in Gold & Silver… The short paper traders get their marching orders from the U.S. Gov’t, and the U.S. Gov’t can not let it appear that people are panicking and buying Gold…   I’m just saying… 

Longtime reader, Bob, sent me this link for a video on what’s going on with the BRICS… Check it out; 42 Countries Joining BRICS: What Next (youtube.com)

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the Business Optimism report for May for us today, no biggie, and should be bang on April’s report… Tomorrow is the BIG DAY, a double whammy if you will with both the STUPID CPI and the FOMC meeting taking place…The FOMC will being their two-day meeting today, and the question I have for them is this: Who’s getting the game boards out?… I read a report yesterday, before falling asleep, that talked about how the FOMC will cut rates in July, and then 2 more times this year… I don’t know what that writer was smoking, and I don’t want any of it, but it must have been good!  I’m just saying…

To recap… Monday was a day of correcting oversells in Chuck’ s opinion, with Gold & Silver attempting to pick of the pieces of their broken rallies that got whacked last Friday. The dollar stopped getting bought, and the price of Oil rebounded by $2 on the day. Chuck revisits digital currency, and talks about what the BRICS are up to… 

For What It’s Worth…  Well, this article explains why the plummeting prices of Copper prices & Oil signal a stressed economy and its well worth the read, and can be found here: Plummeting oil, diesel, and copper prices signal economic stress. Here’s why. – MarketWatch

Or, here’s your snippet: Some commodities can serve as barometers of economic activity, and the recent sharp declines in diesel, crude oil, and copper prices, along with signs of a demand slowdown in recent weeks, hint at a U.S. economy that has been struggling.

“With demand waning for commodities, this could be seen as an indication of weakness, which may suggest that the economy may be weaker than we may have thought,” said Katy Kaminski, chief research strategist at alternative investment manager AlphaSimplex.”

Oil and, by extension, diesel are barometers of economic health, said Ernie Miller, chief executive officer of Verde Clean Fuels.

And there have been visible signs of slowing demand growth for oil and diesel, which are “indicative of an economy that is struggling with high interest rates and slow growth,” he said. U.S. economic growth between the fourth quarter of 2023 and first quarter of this year slowed “dramatically.”

“Slowing demand growth for oil is the result of lackluster economic conditions and post-pandemic recovery that is running out of steam,” said Miller.”

Chuck again… That pretty much makes abundant sense to me… How about you?

Market Prices 6/11/2024: American Style: A$ .6584, kiwi .6122, C$ .7258, euro 1.0730, sterling 1.2740, Swiss $1.1050, European Style: rand 18.6959, krone 10.7130, SEK 10.5770, forint 368.02, zloty 4.0458, koruna 23.0442, RUB 89.19, yen 157.10, sing 1.3533, HKD 7.8100, INR 83.67, China 7.2544, peso 18.35, BRL 5.3499, BBDXY 1,265.66, Dollar Index 105.35, Oil $77.61, 10-year 4.44%, Silver $29.23, Platinum $957.00, Palladium $893.00, Copper $4.45, and Gold… $2,306.56

That’s it for today… 48 years ago, t was a blazing hot day,  I was rushing about, taking my car to the Car Wash, picking up my tux, and getting a hair cut, for the next day, I was to get married… And that night, I sat on my parents front porch with my two best friends, Mike & Robin, and my mom joined in to listen to our stories of the crazy things we did as teenagers… It was my last night of being a bachelor… 48 years ago… WOW! I was remiss in forgetting about Dawn’s husband, Jerry, last week, as he turned 44! Happy belated Birthday, Jerry, I hope your day was grand! Van Morrison takes us to the finish line this morning with his mega hit song: Moondance…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and that you will Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & Metals get taken to the woodshed on Friday
• The ECB cuts rates, and France is under the “unknow” cloud….

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! A beautiful weekend here in the Midwest was had by all… The rain came at night, and the days were warm with little humidity… The calm before the storm weather-wise as I see it…So, I finally broke down and watched a Battlehawks football game yesterday, as Steve McCroskey said in the great movie: Airplane… I picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue, no wait! I mean I picked the wrong day to watch a St. Louis team play football…   The Guess Who greets me this morning with their song: Share The Land… 

Well, last Friday was an engineered takedown to beat the band… I had really thought to myself that these days were over, and not to be seen again, and then to my surprise, the short paper traders saw to it that their on paper losses were taken care of… UGH!   Oh, well, we might as well get into all of that, so here we go! 

Gold and Silver got whacked with a great big stick on Friday… Sure the markets took the jobs report, hook, line and sinker, but the major part of the selling of the metals was in the short paper trades… Gold lost $83 on Friday, and Silver lost a whopping $2.14… It was a very ugly day, for the metals, and the short paper traders were waiting in the weeds for a data print that would show how rates were going to remain higher, longer so they could take the metals down… BIG TIME

So, lets dive into the trumped up BLS jobs report from last Friday… The BLS reported that 272,000 jobs were created in May… I mean C’mon, BLS, you really don’t think that your report is believable do you?  The Birth/ Death calculation that was added to the total from the surveys of added jobs, showed that 231,000, were added from an Excel spreadsheet, or out of thin air, whichever you care to vision it. That means the surveys from businesses only added up to 41,000 jobs… 

I read a report on Zerohedge.com that quoted the Bank of American economists that said that the Birth / Death Model has added an extra 100,000 jobs per month… Well, last month it was 231,000, and for the last two months added together the addition is 594,000 jobs added… 

So, how does the BLS explain how they showed that many jobs created in May, when the Unemployment Rate for May rose to 4.0% (from 3.9% April)?    

I just can’t explain the BLS’s rigging of the jobs report any better… But maybe this will help: Consider this: the BLS reports that in May 2024, the US had 133.3 million full-time jobs and 28.0 million part-time jobs. Well, that’s great… until you look back one year and find that in May 2023 the US had 134.4 million full-time jobs, or more than a million jobs than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by more than 1.5 million since May 2023.   I just sit here in amazement that the markets took the report and ran with it… I also shake my head in disgust… 

The dollar saw a HUGE upward movement from the Jobs Jamboree, with the BBDXY gaining 10 index points on Friday! But when you look at the currencies, they don’t show the effects of this 10 index point gain in the BBDXY… The euro still holds the 1.08 handle, and the rest of the currencies are still alive… The Petrol Currencies are the ones that showed a hit of small proportions… The Mexican peso was a drop to an 18 handle, and the Russian ruble slipped back to an 89 handle. Remember these are what’s called European priced currencies, so as the number go higher, they are losing ground to the dollar. 

The Petrol Currencies saw their current handles taken out after the Price of Oil slid to a $75 handle on Friday… Our friends (NOT!) over at OPEC have to be wondering just what the hell happened on Friday?  I say that, because that’s what I was doing… 

And the 10-year saw major selling on Friday… The 10-year’s yield rose to 4.44%, on the “higher, longer rate talk”…  

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar got bought some more with the BBDXY showing a gain of 3 index points to start our day/ week… Higher and longer for rates seems to have finally caught the markets attention… And that leads me to say something that I don’t want to say, but will… The Fed Heads have always liked to surprise the markets… So, could they be like Bullwinkle and have something up their sleeve for this week’s FOMC meeting? I doubt it, and come to think of it, Bullwinkle always showed that he didn’t have anything up his sleeve! 

Gold is attempting to put the pieces of its year-long rally back together this morning, and is up $7 to start our day/ week, with Silver gaining back 57-cents to start our day/ week.  The 10-year saw some additional selling overnight, and the yield on the 10-year starts the week at 4.47%… 

And the price of Oil remained in the $75 handle…  You know, in my humble country boy opinion, the time to back up the truck and gas up, is now, while the getting is good with gas prices… I fear that they won’t be this cheap for too long…  I’m just saying… 

The Big Dog euro, saw some selling pressure from last week’s goings on in Europe.. First, we saw the European Central Bank (ECB ) cut their internal rate 25 BPS to 3.75% on Thursday last week… I was really hoping that the ECB would see through the latest reduction of Inflation and hold steady, Eddie on rates, but they didn’t, and now the euro has to suffer from their uncalculated, risky rate cut… 

And Second, the election in France has caused some dark clouds to come over The French President, Macron… And what have I always told you that traders don’t like? Unkowns…  And that word is floating over France right now, and the euro has to suffer from that too… I’ve got something related to this thought in the FWIW for you this morning, so don’t change the channel just yet! 

With the euro backing away from the 1.09 handle, that it came so darn close to last week before the rate cut news, the rest of the currencies are starting the week on a down note… The U.S. dollar is the king of the hill once again, or as I described it many years ago, the cleanest shirt in the dirty clothes…    

I’ve been talking about Copper quite a bit for the last two years, highlighting the lack of supply VS demand, and the run-up in Copper’s price… So, when I saw this article Titled: “Copper: Is the correction the end of the rally” on barchart.com, I was intrigued…  Here’s a short snippet from the article: ” I asked if Copper was heading for a new record high. The nearby July COMEX futures price was at the $4.6255 level on May 6, and the bullish trend threatened to challenge the March 2022 $5.01 high. I highlighted that the technical trend, climate change initiatives, and production struggling to keep up with the rising demand presented a compelling bullish case for copper.

Copper’s correction from its most recent high has not negated the long-term bullish trend. The odds continue to favor even higher highs over the coming months.”

Chuck again… The article goes on to talk about the futures market in Copper and how the futures market has Copper price above $5… So, that’s a good indication of where the spot of Copper will be headed… I’m just saying…

Copper, along with lumber, Gold, and Oil are good indicators for a commodities rally… 

OK, I’ve gone on too long this morning, time to head to the Big Finish…

The U.S. Data Cupboard was full lies late last week, so we’ll just move on to this week’s Data Cupboard, which will have the STUPID CPI report for May on Wednesday this week… And quite frankly, the markets are so spell-bound by the STUPID CPI that the direction of the dollar, and Gold will be decided by the direction of that report… So, get ready… Strap yourself in, and make certain that no arms or legs are out of the carriage… 

Oh! And Wednesday this week will be the June FOMC meeting to discuss interest rates… There are still calls out there for a rate cut at this meeting, but I think the Fed Heads would be slipping the noose over their collective heads if they cut rates after what the market believe was a moon shot jobs report last week… I’m just saying… 

To recap… The BLS fed the markets lies, on Friday, and that got the dollar bought, and Gold Sold, which would have been just a normal run-of-the-mill correction if it weren’t for the short paper traders who walloped Gold & Silver beyond recognition… It was UGLY!  Copper’s correction is not the end of the rally… The price of Oil got taken to the woodshed too… With only the dollar shining brightly on Friday…  

For What It’s Worth…  Ok, I tempted you to remain on this channel, and so now I must deliver! This is an article that talks about how will the markets swallow all of the bad news that’s hitting the news every day, and it can be found here: Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: Summer of Discontent and Instability

Or, here’s your snippet: “It was another important week – and I’m not referring to Nvidia’s market cap surpassing Apple’s to reach $3.0 TN (or Roaring Kitty’s podcast touting GameStop attended by 600,000). There were market-surprising/shocking election results in Mexico, India, and South Africa. Volatility was notable across international markets. The ECB and Bank of Canada cut rates this week, with markets seeing the global central bank community’s easing cycle now underway. And Friday, another stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls report rattled the bond market. Could there possibly be a common thread?

The Mexican peso sank 7.2% this week, with over half the loss on post-election Monday. Mexican stocks (S&P/BMV Index) were slammed 6.1% in Monday trading. Indian (Nifty50) equities were hit 5.9% in Tuesday’s session.  

June 6 – Bloomberg (Ezra Fieser): “Early Monday morning, one of the world’s most profitable currency trades unraveled, done in by a twist in Mexican elections few saw coming. Twenty hours later, investors in India started frantically dumping stocks, triggering a one-day, $386 billion wipeout, when they realized they had badly miscalculated the scope of Narendra Modi’s election victory. Around the world, surprise results in some of the biggest developing countries are illustrating how much markets have riding on the politics of 2024… From Mumbai to Mexico City, the Year of the Election — in which 40 countries are holding national votes — is already burning investors, providing an early warning as elections in the European Union and UK near, and five months ahead of the US presidential contest.”

Highly speculative (and levered) markets don’t mix so well with voter acrimony. Importantly, speculative Bubbles and public enmity are not coincidental. They are inevitable consequences of inflationism and monetary disorder. Given enough time, policies so revered by the markets will be viewed with increasing disdain by the masses. Wealth inequalities become only more pronounced late in the cycle, creating a sprawling divergence between market euphoria and deepening public dissatisfaction. Political class market embracement/accommodation at some point shifts to the appeasement of ever more powerful populist movements. Markets this week at least acknowledge the unfolding power-shift to disgruntled electorates.”

Chuck again…  this article is written by Doug Noland, of whom I’ve quoted him several times through the years in the Pfennig… So, he’s no stranger, and he’s hit a nail on the head here… 

Market Prices 6/10/ 2024: American Style: A$ .6592, kiwi .6107, C$ .7267, euro 1.0747, sterling 1.2709, Swiss $1.1190, European Style: rand 187853, krone 10.7853, SEK 10.5523, forint 366.52, zloty 4.0253, koruna 22.9186, RUB 88.89, yen 156.90, sing 1.3531, HKD 7.8136, INR 83.51, China 7.2417, peso 18.43, BRL 5.3460, BBDXY 1,265.80, Dollar Index 105.28, Oil $75.84, 10-year 4.47%, Silver $29.72, Platinum $968.00, Palladium $919.00,   Copper $4.52, and Gold… $2,300.60

That’s it for today… My beloved Cardinals fell back into their old habit of playing to the level of their competition… There’s no other excuse that can be used here… Hey! There will be no Pfennig next Monday and Tuesday… I’ll be going in for my heart procedure on Monday, and won’t be back home until Tuesday… So, I’ll do my best to pump as much info as I can into the Pfennigs this week…  This coming Sunday will be Father’s Day… Longtime readers know my fondness of my dad… This is an alert to you to give your dad something other than a tie!  Chicago takes us to the finish line today with their song (and my fave Chicago song!) Hard Habit To Break… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and that you will Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rally on Wednesday… (it was their day to do so!)
• Bank of Canada cuts their internal rate 25 Basis Points!

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, my beloved Cardinals found a way to avoid being swept by the Astros, by winning the last game of the series, the team comes home after a 9-game road trip… I’m still of the opinion that their recent winning streak before going on the road trip, was a fluke… I sure hope I’m wrong!  ELO greets me this morning with their song: Telephone Line

Well, The dollar got sold a bit yesterday, with the BBDXY losing 2 index points. The euro edged higher, and brought the rest of the currencies along…  I read yesterday that Gold had replaced euros as the top reserve currency for Global Central Banks…   

Speaking of Gold, it was an “up day”, for the shiny metal, and it gained $28 on the day to close at $2,255.90. Silver gained 48-cents on the day to close at $30.02… And my new pet commodity, Copper, gained 12-cents to close at $4.65… 

The price of Oil gained a buck yesterday to end the day trading with a $74 handle. And bonds continue to rally, with the 10-year’s yield falling to 4.30% to end the day. 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar gained back the 2 lost index points in the BBDXY overnight… Hmmm… A real paradox, eh? Sold during the day, bought at night… Oh well, the euro is back to being within spittin’ distance of 1.09, and the carry trade is back to push yen lower once again. 

Gold is up $6 to start our day today, and Silver is up 31-cents to start our day… Makes sense, doesn’t it? Yesterday was a down day for the metals, and that makes today an up day… I kid of course, but that’s how the days have gone for the last week… Alternating days of ups and downs… That would mean that this morning’s gains will be wiped out by the short paper traders… Hey! Maybe the short paper traders are asleep at the wheel today! We can only hope! Makes me want to ask the Short paper traders, this… What’s it gonna be boys?

Here’s Ed Steer from his letter that can be found here: www.edsteergoldsilver.com “The short holders in silver and gold are still in the hole by $15+ billion in unrealized/unbooked margin call losses — and one has to wonder just how long even some of the Big 8 shorts can hold out before they’re forced to cover.

These are very dangerous times — and at some point the flight to gold and silver will be on in earnest. It most likely is now to a degree, but the powers-that-be aren’t allowing it to be reflected in their respective prices. One can only fantasize at what demand will morph into once those prices are allowed to reflect the true supply/demand fundamentals.

I’ve always said that when this price management scheme breaths its last, it won’t happen in a news vacuum…but the looming possibility of a world war is not what I had in mind, or wished for.”

Chuck again… Ed is on these short paper traders like stink on a skunk, so I depend on him for the skinny on the these dastardly fellows… 

Well, I don’t know if you’ve been tracking the Mexican peso in the currency roundup each day, but if you haven’t you might be surprised to see the peso trading with a 17 handle… No, the Central Bank has not cut rates, but the price of Oil has sprang a leak, and then there’s the political election, which is probably reminiscent of the Wild West, is hanging over the peso… The Bank of Mexico’s President said that the “peso would rebound once the election is completed”… 

We had seen the peso outperform all currencies in recent times, so there’s a chance that the BOM President’s words could be proven correct…  I’m just saying…

Well the Bank of Canada did the dirty deed done cheap (AC/DC) yesterday when they cut their internal rate 25 Basis Points (1/4%)… I truly believe that they will rue the day they cut rates, and talked like they would cut them a few more times in 2024…  I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see…  The loon didn’t get hurt too much with the 25 BPS rate cut, but then, the markets didn’t really have a lot of time to discuss the rate cut yet… 

Well, longtime reader, Bob, sent me a note yesterday, telling me that Turkey now wants to join the BRICS… Pretty soon, it’ll be a handful of countries in NATO, and the rest of the World part of BRICS…   I know that these organizations were not created to bring about war… But… Oh, no, I’m not going there this morning… But you get my drift, eh? 

I found this on www.needtoknownews.com “According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s first quarter report, the US banking system is sitting on a collective $517 billion in unrealized losses and has 63 “problem banks.” The losses have been sparked primarily by a surge in interest rates over the past two years, which have driven down the price of fixed-income securities held by banks. Financial analyst John Williams warns of a bank “bail-in” that involves banks seizing customer deposits.”

Chuck again… Ok, before we go on, you all know what a bank “bail-in” is right? Ok, for those of you who said no… That bank bail in is when the bank seizes your bank deposits to pay their debts, Our previous President signed that into law to make it allowable… Wait, What? Yes, your bank deposits could be taken without legal hang-ups…  Now, that’s a cherry talking point isn’t it? (NOT!) 

There’s no market moving economic data in the U.S. data Cupboard today, with only the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and 1^st QTR Productivity… So, in essence, really not much! 

Yesterday’s Data Cupboard had the ADP Employment Report for April… For new readers, this is the report that I truly believe should be used as the national jobs report, and not the hedonically adjusted crap the BLS prints, and will print tomorrow…  The ADPE report showed that 152,000 jobs were added in April… That’s not a good figure for those of you keeping score at home… The BLS report will look nothing like the ADP… I’m just saying… 

To recap… The Bank of Canada cut rates 25 Basis Points yesterday, and talked about cutting more as the year goes on… Chuck thinks they’ll rue the day they cut rates while inflation is still sticking around. The BOM President thinks the peso will rebound… And Chuck talks about bank bail-ins… 

For What It’s Worth… I told you last week that Larry Summers was never my favorite Treasury Sec. But as he ages, he seems to have come over the dark side, with me and others… I found this on Bloomberg.com and it can be found here: Summers Sees Higher US Long-Term Treasury Yields Over Time – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said he sees higher long-term interest rates over time.

“Markets should be getting used to rates in current ranges for the foreseeable future and probably long rates above current levels,” he said Tuesday in an Economic Club of New York webinar conducted with former White House chief economist Glenn Hubbard. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is currently around 4.3%.

Summers, who is now a Harvard University professor as well as a paid Bloomberg contributor, said inflation is not on a “convincing trajectory” to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

He also argued, as he has before, that the neutral short-term interest rate – the rate which neither spurs nor retards economic growth — is around 4.5%, well above the 2.6% median estimate of Fed policymakers.

“We need to adjust ourselves to a 4 1/2% neutral rate as a reasonable best guess,” he said. “That probably means less Fed cutting than is now anticipated.”

Chuck again… The Bond boys, and stock jockeys are all thinking that the Fed Heads will cut rates by 50 Basis Points total by year end… I say hogwash! Yes, I believe the Fed heads have an itchy trigger finger on the rate cut gun, but I also believe that inflation is not going to be anywhere close to the Fed/ Cabal/ cartel’s inflation target of 2%… 

I do realize that a lot of the Gold’s rise in recent months has been partially aided by the rate cut talk, and with a rate cut that bump that Gold gets is nowhere to be found… But shoot Rudy, by then, Gold will be in everybody’s mind as the financial system teeters…  I’m just saying…

Market Prices 6/6/2024: American Style: A$ .6644. Kiwi .6184, euro 1.0886, sterling 1.2774, Swiss $1.1213, European Style: rand 18.9827, krone 10.5766, SEK 10.3957, forint 359.91, zloty 3.9895, koruna 22.6577, RUB 89.03, yen 156.18, sing 1.3479, HKD 7.8101, INR 83.47, China 7.2444, peso 17.55, BRL 5.2983, BBDXY 1,252.46, Dollar Index 104.31, Oil $74.76, 10-year 4.31%, Silver $30.33, Platinum $1,004.00, Palladium $940.00, Copper $4.66, and Gold… $2,361.20

That’s it for today… Well, this weekend (June 9th) will be one of my fave people on earth, birthday… Happy early Birthday, Laura Baur! I hope your day is grand! Man, I really did a good job on dinner last night… I grilled kabobs with garlic buttered shrimp, mushrooms, red onion, and pineapple, and then put it over steamed white rice! YUMMY!   And Kathy didn’t eat, so it was all mine! I had more stuff to cook, but I ran out of skewers… The late great George Harrison takes us to the finish line today with his song: What Is Life? I hop you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and will promise that you’ll Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals get sold on Tuesday…
• Wait till you see awaits you in the FWIW today!

Good Day… And a Wonder Dog Wednesday to you! My beloved hit 3 homers again last night, and like the night before, they lost the game… All those previous losses when we received great starting pitching, and no hitting, now we get hitting and no pitching! UGH! Baseball will definitely drive you crazy at times, folks… So, If I sound a little off my rocker today, you’ll know why!  Golden Earring greet me this morning with their hit song: Radar Love…

Well, it was another day of one day up, the next day down, with yesterday being the down’s day for the metals… Gold lost $23, and Silver gained 4-cents… Copper lost 3-cents… So, Gold was the whipping boy for the short paper traders yesterday…   

The dollar gained 2 index points on the day, and ended the day at 1,252…  I would have thought, that since last week when the economic data was bad for the dollar, the dollar got sold, that this week would bring more of that kind of trading, but noooooooooo!  The ISM (manufacturing Index) dropped in April to 48.7 from 49.2… That’s going the wrong way folks… And just a friendly neighborhood reminder that any number below 50 means the manufacturing sector is in Contraction…   

But the dollar bugs saw to it that it didn’t mean a hill of beans to them, and the dollar gained ground on the day… The euro remained well bid above 1.08, and the rest of the currencies, that are not Petrol Currencies, all seemed to hold on to their pants…  With the price of Oil remaining in the $73 handle yesterday, the Petrol Currencies were able to catch their collective breaths… 

The 10-year’s yield dropped 7 more basis points yesterday, and ended the day trading with a 4.34% yield…  Longtime traders know that I was once a foreign bond trader, and for years, I was around U.S. Treasury Bond traders, and I thought I had a good handle on what they used to move the yields on bonds… And that they were always looking ahead…  But today’s U.S. Treasury Bond dealers are not their father’s dealers…  I’m just saying… For if they were they would be looking ahead at all the maturities that are coming due in the near future, and all the new debt that will have to be added to new bonds to replace the maturing ones… And, asking themselves, “who is going to buy all that debt?” 

Just for those of you keeping score at home… I read the other day that China had sold a record amount of Treasury and US agency bonds in the first quarter… how does $53.2 Billion sound?  I don’t think we as a nation can depend on the kindness of foreigners any longer… We’ve ticked off, sanctioned some, and made them choke down trillions of debt already, and they are saying now… no mas! 

In the overnight markets last night… There was little to no movement in the dollar overnight with the BBDXY gaining just ½ index point. Yen, after enjoying a day or two of sunshine is back to getting sold this morning, and the rest of the currencies, sans Petrol Currencies, all look a bit healthier this morning… The Price of Oil remained in the $73 handle overnight, and have given up the ghost on price increases here… The Summer driving season is upon us, so there should be some upward movement, but we’ll have to wait-n-see….   I did, for once in a blue moon, filled up my gas tank yesterday, while prices were lower…  I was really proud of myself for that move…  

Gold is up $6 to start our day today, and Silver is up just 3-cents to start the day. The short paper traders probably slept in today, something I kind of wish I could’ve done!  I told you yesterday my outlook for the metals, so we don’t have to rehash that… The metal that was going great guns a couple of weeks ago, and now isn’t any longer, Copper, was introduced to price management, from the short paper traders, and their relationship has been all one-sided… UGH! 

The 10-year’s yield fell a couple more basis points overnight, and trades this morning with a 4.32%… The weak data that’s been printing sure has caused the rate cut bugs to come out from the wall boards, and scatter around the kitchen… But like I’ve pointed out, if the data is so weak that the bond boys smell a rate cut coming, then why is the dollar not getting weaker? Something’s got to give here, folks… 

Well, I was actually out of it for most of yesterday, the new chemo that I’m taking knocked me on my arse… I slept most of the day… And was able to go right back to sleep last night after the ball game… I feel somewhat OK, this morning… After I get my coffee, I think I’ll be good to go today…  I told you that to let you know, I didn’t make notes yesterday during the day of what I wanted to talk about this morning, so… This could very well be a shot-n-sweet Pfennig today… 

I found this last night… and after you read this, knowing what you know about the manufacturing sector and adding an eye of newt, no wait, we’re not making a witch’s brew here, simply add this info and then you can point to them the next time you hear A Gov’t Official tell you how strong the U.S. economy is: “The long list of restaurant chains closing locations due to financial reasons keeps growing. Now, joining the likes of Red Lobster, Pizza Hut, Boston Market, TGI Fridays, Popeyes, Tijuana Flats, Cracker Barrel and Applebee’s in shuttering locations, is national burger chain BurgerFi, and also like some other companies, they might also be filing for bankruptcy soon.”

And before I go to the big Finish today, I wanted to share this with you… Fed president Neel Kashkari says that Americans have such a ‘visceral’ hatred of inflation that they’d rather have a recession than rising prices.”  that can be found on Fortune.com   

Chuck again:  Well, yes, as long as you decrease deficit spending along with the recession, then you’d have something… A cleaning out of the excesses, and a starting over for the economy…  I’ll take that to go, sir! 

Today’s U.S. data Cupboard has April Factory Orders for our review… I suspect that they will be disappointing at best… We’ll also see the Jobs Openings for April, which will remain above 8 Million… Hiring seems to be stuck at 2016 levels…  Nobody wants to work any longer I guess… 

To recap… The dollar bugs bought up dollars yesterday, and the BBDXY gained 2 index points, but the euro remained well bid above 1.08, and the only currencies showing some weakness are the Petrol Currencies, and that’s because the price of Oil has fallen out of bed! Chuck talks about his days as a bond trader… And gives us proof that the U.S. economy is teetering… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, I hate to do this, but not really, because this is something that everyone should know… This is a very short video of the head of the U.S. Chief economic advisor… you won’t believe what this guy doesn’t know, or how to explain it: Click here: Biden Economic’s Advisor Visibly Struggles to Answer Easy Question (youtube.com)

See? Doesn’t that just give you a nice warm and fuzzy about the people running our economics? NOT! He can’t even explain how the deficit spending gets financed… And he’s the Chief of the economic council? GIVE ME A BREAK! SERENITY NOW!  I’m going to go yell at the walls for a minute to see if that calms me down, be right back…. 

Market Prices 6/5/2024: American Style: A$ .6646, kiwi .6183, C$ .7311, euro 1.0870, sterling 1.2780, Swiss $1.1204, European Style: rand 18.0364, krone 10.5635, SEK 10.4251, forint 360.35, zloty 3.9612, koruna 22.6842, RUB 88.60, yen 156.14, sing 1.3483, HKD 7.8094, INR 83.37, China 7.2474, peso 17.65, BRL 5.2720, BBDXY 1,250.83, Dollar Index 104.31, Oil $73.64, 10-year 4.32%, Silver $29.57, Platinum $996.00, Palladium $953.00, Copper $4.53, and Gold… $2,333.73

That’s it for today…  Sorry for the shortness of the letter today, but when you don’t do your homework, it’s difficult to pass the test! Man oh man, my bumbling, fumbling, stumbling beloved Cardinals… They are not ready for prime time, for sure! Their days of beating up the teams in their division, and then winning the division, are over, for they no longer play the other teams in their division 18 times per team a year!   Well, now I just have to remain not sick, for the next 12 days… Well, actually I would prefer not being sick ever again! Eric Clapton takes us to the finish line today with his song: Let It Rain… I hope you have a Wonder dog Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rally on Monday
• But get sold overnight…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you!  And Welcome to June! Pfennig Tradition calls for this:  “June is busting out all over, all over the meadows and the hill, buds are busting out of bushes, and  the rompin’ river pushes, Every little wheel that wheels beside a mill! 

We finally held our family celebration for grandson, Braden’s Birthday this past weekend. He turned 13… I thought for a moment and said, “when I was 13 I was in high school”, and everyone looked at me like I was crazy… My beloved Cardinals won 1 of the 3 games with the Phillies… And had to play that stupid, Sunday night game! Stevie Wonder greets me this morning with his song: My Cherie Amour…  

The end of the week last week was interesting in that the data that printed wasn’t dollar friendly, and for once, unfriendly dollar data , saw the dollar get sold…  And going into the weekend the BBDXY had lost 6 index points, to 1,250… Gold ended the week at $2,326, after losing $26 on Friday, and Silver ended the week at $30.38, after losing 73-cents on Friday… 

The price of Oil has seen its level fall out of bed since Thursday last week, and closed yesterday with a $73 handle… First, it was reported that our friends (NOT!) at OPEC were going to extend their output reductions to help the price of OIL… and then it was reported that the knuckleheads at OPEC were going to increase supply… Wait, What? Left the markets confused, and the markets don’t like to be confused… And the 10-year saw its yield drop to 4.41%, to end the week.  

Yesterday, the dollar drifted throughout the day, and remained at 1,250 in the BBDXY as the day closed. Gold gained back the ground it lost on Friday, gaining $24 to close at $2,350.75, and Silver also gained it’s lost ground, by gaining 35-cents to close at $30.73… 

In the overnight markets last night… There was little to no movement in the dollar, and the BBDXY starts today at 1,250…. Gold is getting sold again, what’s up with this up one day, down the next trading pattern? It’s the markets not being able to pick a lane… One day they are convinced the economic data tells them a rate cut is in the cards, and that’s followed by the next day, the markets believing that there will be no rate cut…  The markets are so wishy-washy these days… So, dependent on what the Fed Heads will do… I would think that they are aware by now that whatever the Fed Heads to, it will be the wrong thing to do? Tsk, tsk, markets… 

So, Gold is down $19 to start the day, and Silver is getting the snot kicked out of it, and is down 96-cents to start the day, and has fallen below the $30 figure… UGH!  The short paper traders are really going after Silver this morning… I’ve come to the conclusion that the overall direction of Gold & Silver will be determined by the short paper traders…  So, whether or not Gold goes higher to $3,000 will be determined by the short paper traders…And if it does, the short paper traders will make it seem like it will never happen, drawing out the upward move, just like they’ve done till now… I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil remained down in the $73 handle overnight, and the 10-year dropped some more to 4.36% yield to start our day… So, if the bond boys think the data tells them a rate cut is in the cards, as evidenced by the drop in bond yields, then what’s going on with the metals? Just shows to go ya, that the short paper traders are ruling the roost at the moment, now doesn’t it?  UGH!

Well, the data late last week had a lot to do with the movements in the dollar and metals.. The Big Data print was the PCE…  So, let’s go right to the data prints… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week had the awaited on, PCE inflation calculation, this supposedly is the Fed Heads’ favorite inflation calc… So, here’s the skinny on the report: Inflation rose about as expected in April, with markets on edge over when interest rates might start coming down, according to a measure released Friday that is followed closely by the Federal Reserve.

The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy costs increased just 0.2% for the period, in line with the Dow Jones estimate, the Commerce Department reported.

On an annual basis, core PCE was up 2.8%, or 0.1 percentage point higher than the estimate.

And Wolf Street.com had this to say about the PCE: “Fed’s Wait-and-See on Rate Cuts Supported by Worst 6-Month “Core” & “Core Services” PCE Inflation since mid-2023
Not just housing, but also other core services. However, durable goods inflation is back to normal.”

And Forbes had this headline: “Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve is stuck in a self-defeating paradox that makes cutting rates more difficult, economist warns”

Chuck again… yes, a lot to be said about one report, but since the markets are so tuned to what the reports tell us about what the Fed Heads might or might not do at their next meeting is the main thing right now. 

Well, it’s a good thing the folks at the European Central Bank (ECB ) listened to me (as if!) and didn’t cut rates early, because inflation was falling… You may recall me telling the ECB to not cut because inflation is sticky, and would come back…  Here’s Reuters with the skinny: “Euro zone inflation rose in May, data showed on Friday, in a sign the European Central Bank still faces a slow and uncertain journey to reach its goal of fully reining in prices.”

Now, if only the Bank of Canada will listen to me… They seem to be hell bent and whisky bound to cut rates a few times this year… UGH! 

It was reported last week that the Bank of Japan had spent $62 Billion defending the yen… And for what? to see the yen immediately, go right back to getting sold? And to see the yen fall to 157 once again?  I just don’t get what these Central Banks think they are going to accomplish by wasting reserves… 

In my attempt to bring the news of digital currencies to the forefront, this was in the needtoknow.com site: “CNBC News reports that hundreds of smaller US banks are at risk of failure. There is a war on cash and many businesses are refusing cash. The World Economic Forum (WEF) just held a summit to discuss the banning of physical cash in favor of an all digital currency system. Private bankers have wrested control over money from governments and central bank digital currency gives globalists even more power. COVID helped the push to eliminate cash and established contact lists via vaccine passports. This is all about control and surveillance.”

I find that seeing CNBC actually report this is bringing this news to the masses… I get it, the younger generation doesn’t know how to carry cash, they only know how to charge something on a card… And that’s exactly what the Gov’t wants to see, because they are waning the country off of folding cash… Want to lose the remainders of your liberties? Well, going to digital currencies will do just that, and before you know it, you’ll be asking everyone around you, how that happened? 

There’s nothing we can do about it now… WE The People should have stood up and said, “Don’t take our cash away!” But we didn’t, like the sheeple we’ve been trained to be, we unknowing to us, started using our credit cards to buy everything…   

“Understand this. Things are now in motion that cannot be undone.” — Gandalf the White

The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week also had the Personal Income (+.03%), and Personal Spending (+.02%)… So, spending in the U.S. is down, and that’s not what the Gov’t wants to see, they need those tax receipts to come in hot and heavy, and that’s not happening… 

To recap… The dollar got sold going into the weekend, and then drifted yesterday to start the week. Gold & Silver got sold going into the weekend, and rallied on Monday… So, after 3 trading days, we’re back to where we were mid-week, last week…   Chuck goes into his Gandalf the White impression this morning… 

For What It’s Worth…I found this over the weekend, and thought it to be FWIW worthy… The title of the article is Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve Is Stuck In A Defeating paradox that makes cutting interest rates more difficult, economists warns… And it can be found here: Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve is stuck in a self-defeating paradox, economist warns | Fortune

Or, here’s your snippet:The Federal Reserve has talked financial markets into creating an easier environment, which paradoxically makes lowering rates a more difficult task for the central bank, a top economist said.

The Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index indicates that the availability and cost of credit across money, bond, and equity markets are significantly more favorable today than when the Fed began raising rates in March 2022, according to Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk.

That’s due to the central bank’s pivot in November, when Chairman Jerome Powell signaled that inflation was cooling enough to halt rate hikes and start thinking about when rate cuts could begin.

Wall Street interpreted the comments, incorrectly as it turned out, to mean easing would be imminent and that as many as six cuts would happen in 2024, sparking a massive stock market rally.

Meanwhile, the federal government has been spending trillions of dollars on infrastructure, green-energy initiatives, and semiconductor production capacity.

As a result, the economy has remained strong as this fiscal stimulus continues to fuel growth while easier financial conditions offset Fed rate hikes, Sløk noted.

In fact, the economy was so strong earlier this year that inflation readings came in above forecasts and showed signs of reaccelerating. That forced Powell to warn that rates could stay high for “as long as needed” because inflation appeared to be taking longer than anticipated to reach the Fed’s 2% target.

Still, he later acknowledged that further rate increases were unlikely and reaffirmed that the Fed’s next move—whenever that will be—is likely a rate cut.

And that’s precisely the mistake Powell is making, in Sløk’s view.

“Looking ahead, with the stock market hitting fresh all-time highs and fiscal policy still supportive, the expectation in markets should be that the economy will continue to accelerate over the coming quarters,” he wrote. “You can call this the Fed Cut Reflexivity Paradox: The more the Fed insists that the next move in interest rates is a cut, the more financial conditions will ease, making it more difficult for the Fed to cut.” 

Chuck again… I thought I would give you the majority of that article, because it tells you the story that I’ve been telling you, that interest rates can’t be cut, because inflation is still raging… And if they are cut, then we might as well kiss our dollar strength away… I’m just saying

Market Prices 6/ 3/ 2024: American Style: A$ .6644, kiwi .6169, C$ .7312, euro 1.0866, sterling 1.2765, Swiss $1.1200, European Style: rand 18.6661, krone 10.5773, SEK 10.4617, forint 361.12, zloty 3.9594, koruna 22.7243, RUB 86.96, yen 154.80, sing 1.3470, HKD 7.8142, INR 83.53, China 7.2378, peso 17.90, BRL 5.2811, BBDXY 1,250, Dollar Index 104.24, Oil $73.02, 10-year 4.36%, Silver $29.76, Platinum $1,008.00, Palladium $96.90, Copper $4.57, and Gold… $2,331.10

That’s it for today… my oncologist was upset with me yesterday, at first, as the scale reported that I had lost 10 lbs in 3 weeks… But when I told her that my wife had been sick, and not cooking dinners for me, she calmed down… Losing weight is ok with her, not just so fast! That indicates something is awry… All the blood work looked good, and now I’m on my new chemo… I’m somewhat worried about how I’ll tolerate this one… I hope my worries are for naught! Sniff N’ The Tears, take us to the finish line today with their song: Driver’s Seat…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please oh please, with sugar on top, Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

*currencies & metals get sold on Wednesday…

*U.S. Treasury Auction goes dismally… Uh-oh!

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, while I’m thinking of this, there will be no Pfennig on Monday, June 3, as I will be seeing my oncologist bright and early that day. My beloved Cardinals are finally back to a .500 team! I sure hope that figure is left in their rear view mirrors from here on out! Now it’s onto Philly, who has the best team in the National League so far this year… The great Percy Sledge greets me this morning with his mega hit song: When A Man Loves A Woman… 

On a sidebar here, I saw Percy Sledge on TV a year or so ago, and he still sounded the same, I was amazed that a man at his age could still sound that good! 

Ok, we’re back to the dollar being the king of hill again… The 10-year’s yield is on the rise and that is helping the dollar outdistance the rest of the currencies, with the Big Dog euro losing the 1.08 figure in yesterday’s trade that saw the BBDXY gain 5 index points.  So, let me get this straight, the dollar rallied on the 10-year’s rise in yield… But, didn’t the auction of Treasuries go horribly yesterday?  Yes, they did… 

Apparently, no one on one side talks to the anyone on the other side here… This is what I’m talking about: A $39 billion sale of 10-year Treasury notes was met with poor demand Tuesday afternoon, dashing expectations that buyers would continue to step in amid an onslaught of supply.  And that was not enough to quell the dollar rally?   I’m not getting this one iota, folks… SERENITY NOW!  I just went and yelled at the walls, but I’m still fuming… 

Gold lost $3 on the day, and closed the day at $2,338.10… Silver, on the other hand gained 24-cents on the day to close at $32.17…  Silver is definitely in a bull run right now, and as I’ve explained in previous letters, these bull runs can last up to 17 years… Ok, maybe not that long for this bull run, but a long time nevertheless… 

The price of Oil slipped back to a $79 handle yesterday, and here’s Bloomberg.com with their thought on this slippage: “Oil retreated as another weak sale of Treasuries raised concerns about rising yields, stoking a risk-off mood across financial markets.

West Texas Intermediate settled below $80 as equities declined. The drop pared Tuesday’s 2.7% gains, which were driven by renewed geopolitical risks, including ship attacks in the Red Sea and Israel’s advance into the Gazan city of Rafah.”

Chuck again…  Well, for those of you keeping score at home, Oil has gained about 14% so far this year… 

The 10-year’s yield as previously stated rose yesterday to 4.62%…  The bad auction probably caused some of that upward movement… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar stumbled and tripped, something I know all about personally! The BBDXY is down 2 index points this morning, and the euro has recovered the 1.08 handle. The dollar buying yesterday was overdone, and so a slight correction occurred overnight. Gold is down $6 to start our day today, and Silver is down 80-cents to start our day… So, just when you think an asset like Silver is ready to break out and not look back, it runs into the short paper crowd, and has to start all over again… UGH!  

The price of Oil slid another buck overnight and trades this morning with a $78 handle… I just don’t get these Oil traders, they make no rhyme or reason with me regarding their trading of Oil… Need I remind them again, that the summer driving season is quickly approaching?  I guess I do, because they can’t decide which way to take Oil these days… 

And the 10-year’s yield slid overnight and trades this morning with a 4.60% yield… Talk about not getting what Oil traders are doing, I’m just as confused by the bond boys… That dismal auction yesterday, along with the news that a ton of more bonds are to be auctioned in coming days, would have me, if I were a bond trader, running for the hills… I’m just saying… 

You know, when Larry Summer was the U.S. Treasury Sec. I was not a fan, but when you compare him to current Sec. Janet Yellen, he was head and shoulder above her, especially when he makes statements like this: “Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers claims that true inflation is around 18% when including financing costs, highlighting a significant underreporting issue.” 

A new Mr. Obvious has been hatched… but at least he’s seeing the STUPID CPI for what it is… STUPID! 

But don’t tell Atlanta Fed President that inflation is still high… this from Bloomberg.com “Fed’s Bostic Says Many Inflation Measures Moving to Target Range
Says Fed may be in a position to cut rates in fourth quarter”

Oh brother! spare me dime… so I can call Mr. Bostic, and tell him he’s out of his gourde!  Oh, wait, what? a phone call isn’t a dime any longer? Well, I think I would be playing a losing game trying to find a pay phone anyway! 

Mom….  He’s doing it again!   Ok, what is Chuck talking about now? Well, as Russ & Pam Martens reported JP Morgan is paying another fine… Here’s a snippet from their website: www.wallstreetonparade.com : “How does a Wall Street trading firm gain competitive advantage to entice spoofers and high-frequency trading firms to use its trading platforms instead of those of its competitors? How about having its trading compliance personnel wear a blindfold as billions of trades occur over the span of 8 or 9 years?

That is essentially what three of JPMorgan Chase’s federal regulators have suggested is behind the $448 million in fines they’ve leveled against three separate units of the largest bank in the United States.”

Chuck again…  will that be enough of a fine to get JP Morgan to stop all their price fixings? I doubt it… To them, it’s just a “cost of doing business”, and not until the regulators shut them down will they stop… 

Circling the wagons, and coming back to Gold…  I’m really not seeing the demand for physical Gold coming from Western Investors… The major push in Gold so far this year has come from Central Banks, and Chinese buying, both Gov’t and individuals…  Notice I didn’t say, U.S. buyers? That’s because the only U.S. buyers are Gold bugs, and not your average Joe six pack… My friend, Rich Checkin, he of Asset Strategies, Inc.  tells me that premiums are not a problem in Gold & Silver right now, but should the U.S. investors begin to chase the prices of these metals, those premiums that are paid on fabricated metals would rise… 

And did the Bank of Japan intervene with yen again last night? Yen did improve a bit, overnight… The reason I bring this up, is that yen reached a level yesterday that brought about intervention from the BOJ, the last time it reached that level…  here’s my memo to the BOJ… Don’t do it! It will proved to be waste of money! 

And the day after The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said, “Don’t Worry, Be Happy”, the renminbi gains vs the dollar… Hmmm…  You don’t think the PBOC had anything to do with that gain do you? You should! This is what I was hinting at yesterday… 

Before we head to the Big Finish today, let me go over what I’m thinking, regarding the markets take on the data that will print today. We also have a gaggle of Fed heads speaking today, who knows, maybe they’ll come out with something fresh, but I doubt it…  So, the revision of 1^st QTR GDP will print today, and I’m sure that it will revised downward, and when that happens the calls for a rate cut will be hollered from the back of the room, and that won’t be good for the dollar, but it will be good for the currencies and metals.. So, there you have my thoughts on what could happen today after GDP prints… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today finally has something for us to view… Like I told you on Tuesday, today we’ll see the next revision of 1^st QTR GDP, of which has already seen a major downward revision.. And will most likely see another major downward revision today…   You know, that the majority of whatever is left of GDP is government spending, right?  And we all know that the Gov’t spending is completely out of control!  

To recap… The dollar rallied on Wednesday in a big way, and it was because of the rising yield in the 10-year Treasury… Chuck points out that the Treasury Auction was dismal at best, and that should have weighed on the dollar, but didn’t… Gold lost some minor ground on Wednesday, while Silver continues to kick some tail and take names later! 

For What It’s Worth… Oh say it ain’t so, Joe! Don’t tell me that once again mortgage companies are going to do something stupid… Well, unfortunately, they are, and here’s the story: “Zero Percent Down Mortgages Return, What Can Go Wrong? – MishTalk

Or, here’s your snippet: “It’s a perfect time to do something really stupid, like offering zero percent down payments on mortgages.

Home buyers will be able to buy a home without putting any money down under a new program launched by United Wholesale Mortgage, one of the largest U.S. mortgage lenders.

The Pontiac, Mich.-based company’s new program will be available to first-time home buyers and people earning at or below 80% of an area’s median income, the company said in a press release.

UWM (UWMC) will give eligible buyers a second-lien loan of up to $15,000, in the form of down-payment assistance, for 3% of the home’s purchase price. The loan will not accrue interest or require a monthly payment.

“Homeownership is something we’re very passionate about,” Melinda Wilner, chief operating officer at UWM, told MarketWatch.

The company had previously allowed buyers to put down as little as 1% on their homes, but it wanted to go further to help home buyers, she said. The lender is anticipating a higher volume of borrowers with its new zero-down program, Wilner added.

Poor underwriting practices were a key driver of the subprime-mortgage crisis in the U.S., the International Monetary Fund wrote in 2008. But unlike the low- and no-down-payment loans that proliferated during that time – when lenders made loans to people who eventually were unable to pay them and lost their homes – UWM’s program is different, Wilner said.

“The aspect of this program that makes me nervous is the silent second mortgage,” Anneliese Lederer, senior policy counsel at the nonprofit Center for Responsible Lending, told MarketWatch in an interview. “It’s great that there’s no interest on it, but it’s a balloon payment, and borrowers need to understand what a balloon payment is.”

Chuck again… returning to the scene of the crime, that’s what this mortgage company is doing, now it’ll be interesting to see if other mortgage companies follow suit… I’m thinking that maybe, just maybe these other mortgage companies see this for what it is… STUPID, and RISKY, and you can’t tell me that this won’t turn to tears…. I’m just saying…

Market Prices 5/30/ 2024: American Style: A$.6615, kiwi .6104, C$ .7287, euro 1.0813, sterling 1.2715, Swiss $1.1003, European Style: rand 18.6517, krone 10.5657, SEK 10.6494, forint 360.28, zloty 3.9690, koruna 22.0261, RUB 89.96, yen 157.10, sing 1.3574, HKD 7.8181, INR 83.31, China 7.2365, peso 17.07, BRL 5.2056, BBDXY 1,254.31, Dollar Index 104.90, Oil $78.87, 10-year 4.60%, Silver $31.37, Platinum $1,034.00, Palladium $946.00 Copper $4.66, and Gold… $2,332,82

That’s it for today… I had to get this oncologist appt. scheduled on 6/3, because that’s the date the heart folks want the blood work done…  So, as I said above, no Pfennig on Monday… 2/3rds of our lunch group, will get together tomorrow, I can taste a fried baloney sandwich as I type!   Kathy is doing much better, she actually came out of her room yesterday, not while I was around, and did some outside work… I still won’t go around her… and so far, so good, with me not getting sick… Alvin Lee and Ten Years After, take me to the finish line today with his great song, and best performance at Woodstock: Goin’ Home…  We lost the great Alvin Lee too soon…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please… Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar rebounds on Tuesday, but Gold & Silver ignore the dollar move
• Chuck gives the Bank of Canada a memo…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, it did indeed look as though my beloved Cardinals were dragging the line in Monday’s game, as their bats returned last night, and they beat the Reds 7-1… I love it when the team plays in the Eastern Time Zone, as the games end at a decent hour for me! Bill Withers greets me this morning with his song: Lovely Day…

I don’t know if today will be lovely or not, but it will have a tough row to hoe, to be better than yesterday, for yesterday was just simply beautiful! 

The dollar bugs were singing about it being a lovely day for sure, as the dollar got bought and recovered its two-days of losses late last week… The BBDXY ended the day at 1,250, thus, up 4 index points on the day.  The euro backed off of its high in the 1.08 figure, and all the rest of the currencies backed off their recent levels too. 

Gold though forgot about the dollar strength, and gained $9 on the day, to end the day at $2,362.00, and Silver gained 41-cents to end the day at $32.12… A good showing for the metals yesterday…  But… as always, the short paper boys were hanging around, and they certainly put a cap on the metals gains yesterday… Who knows where Silver would have ended up if it had been left alone… I’m just saying… 

I said yesterday that it would be interesting to see if the bond boys continued to take the 10-year’s yield higher… And at least for one day, they did take it higher, with the 10-year’s yield at 4.56% at the end of the day. 

An the price of Oil gained another buck yesterday, and finished the day with an $80 handle…  I still don’t get why the price of Oil was taken to the woodshed last week, only to recover quickly and even go higher than it was before! 

In the overnight markets last night… Well, somebody has an axe to grind with the metals as we start today… Gold is down $19 and Silver is down 19-cents… The dollar hasn’t moved from yesterday’s close at 1,250, so it’s not a dollar is king thing that’s moving the metals this morning.  I have to think that it’s another short paper event… I’ll know more as the day goes on, and report on it tomorrow… 

Copper is down again this morning, I guess the Copper Traders are getting a taste of what Gold & Silver have had to endure these years as they got more interest by investors, they would get the snot knocked out of them, and now the short paper traders have turned to Copper… UGH!  

The price of Oil remained trading with an $80 handle overnight and the 10-year’s yield is at 4.47% to start the day today… 

I was reading an article this morning, about the Bank of Canada and how the Canadian markets are wishing, and hoping and praying for a rate cut soon from the Bank of Canada (BOC)… The Bank has meeting scheduled for June 5, and then in July and September… Right now the markets have their eyes focused on the September meeting for a rate cut… That’s why the Canadian dollar/ loonie, is teetering as we start our day today… 

I’ll just say this, and if this sounds like a broken record, then move the needle and go on… But what the markets are seeing with inflation in Canada, is much like we’ve seen in other countries… Inflation drops, and then ceases to drop further… and eventually inflation comes back stronger…. And if a Central Bank had not been patient, and cut rates early, they would be dealing with even stronger inflation…  So, there’s my memo to the Bank of Canada…  Don’t be fooled! 

I’ve mentioned Australia a couple of times in recent Pfennigs… So, in keeping in that vein… Australia is seeing the same kind of data in their country as the U.S. is seeing… For instance, last week Retail Sales slowed in April thus signaling a slowing economy… and that could mean a rate cut, but then yesterday, April inflation rose, marking the second consecutive month a rising inflation and thus pointing to keeping rates unchanged or maybe even raising them!   What to do, what to do?  I think the Reserve Bank of Australia will remain vigilant about keeping rates high to combat inflation, and that would mean that the A$ buyers are warranted int pushing the A$ higher… 

And news this morning that the Peoples Bank of China is jawboning the renminbi higher, or at least attempting to… I don’t know if you’ve noticed in the currency roundup that the renminbi has been slipping on a daily basis, and things in China are back and forth with the economy… But the Peoples Bank of China said, “don’t worry be happy” (not really, I said that), but the Peoples Bank did say that the renminbi would be recovering shortly…   Hmmm…  Makes you wonder doesn’t it?    I’m just saying… 

Before I head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to stop and say that I was saddened to hear that Bill Walton had died… I was a HUGE fan of Bill Walton ever since he scored 43 points in the NCAA Championship game in 1973 in St. Louis! Bill was only 71 years old, when he passed away, and that’s way too young in my book!  RIP Bill Walton… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard only has the Fed’s Beige Book on the docket today, and that’s not enough to move markets… Tomorrow, we will see the GDP revision that I talked about yesterday. 

To recap… The dollar rebounded on Tuesday, and recovered the losses it took late last week. But Gold & Silver didn’t care if the dollar was rallying, as they kept on the rally tracks themselves… Chuck can’t figure out why Oil traders took the price of Oil lower last week, only to see it rebound and recover this week? 

For What It’s Worth… Well, guess who would be considered a Gold Bug now? None other than the guy behind the movie the “Big Short”, Michael Burry… His entry into the Gold market and more can be found here: Michael Burry and John Paulson hit the jackpot when they called the housing crash. Now they’re betting on gold. (msn.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “It turns out Michael Burry isn’t only a metalhead when it comes to music.

The investor of “The Big Short” fame purchased about 441,000 units of the Sprott Physical Gold Trust last quarter. The trust holds virtually all of its assets in physical gold bullion.

Burry’s Scion Asset Management revealed its first-quarter holdings in a regulatory filing this week.

The gold bet was worth $7.6 million at the end of March, ranking it as Scion’s fifth-largest position with a 7.4% weighting in the firm’s $103 million U.S. stock portfolio.

If the wager remains intact, it was valued at $8.1 million as of Friday, per Sprott’s bullion calculator.

Buying gold is a surprising move from Burry, a value investor known for sniffing out dirt-cheap stocks — including GameStop years before it became a meme stock.

He’s also bet against high flyers like Elon Musk’s Tesla, Cathie Wood’s Ark Innovation ETF , and a microchip ETF that counts Nvidia as its top holding.

Burry shot to fame for predicting and profiting from the collapse of the mid-2000s housing bubble.

The saga was chronicled in the book and movie “The Big Short.“

John Paulson made his name with a similar wager, immortalized in a book titled “The Greatest Trade Ever.” Like Burry, the Paulson & Co. chief appears to be bullish on gold and other precious metals.”

Chuck again… Well, it took them long enough to get on board the Gold train didn’t it? At least now they are a part of Gold’s rise, and brings me to my usual question: Got Gold?

Market Prices 5/29/2024: American Style: A$ .6632, kiwi .6128, C$ .7315, euro 1.0856, sterling 1.2754, Swiss $1.0957, European Style: rand 18.3267, krone 10.5164, SEK 10.6251, forint 356.50, zloty 3.9277, koruna 22.7785, RUB 89.49, yen 157.20, sing 1.3497, HKD 7.8116, INR 83.34, China 7.2494, peso 16.82, BRL 5.1749, BBDXY 1,250.50, Dollar Index 104.69, Oil $80.39, 10-year 4.47%, Silver $31.93, Platinum $1,045, Palladium $956.00, Copper $4.79, and Gold… $2,341.70

That’s it for today… I’ve been bringing coffee and food to the door and leaving it for Kathy to grab after I’ve gone away… She doesn’t sound very good, but as I said the other day, give her about 3 days and she’ll be good to go! I will be amazed if she’s not good to go by then!   So far, so good, with regards to keeping me from getting sick… cross my fingers!  Cards and Red play a get away day, game today at noon… My arm where I tore the skin off of two weeks ago, has finally stopped bleeding… UGH!  The Moody Blues take us to the finish line today with their song from the Seventh Sojourn album: New Horizons…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals rally on Monday (without interference)
• GDP will show another downward revision….

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals were playing better, sweeping the Orioles and Cubs, but reverted to their non-ability to hit the ball and lost to the Reds yesterday… I sure hope that was just a case of them not getting to Cincy until 4 in the morning, and then have a day game… Our plans for a big celebration this past weekend got cancelled… Kathy’s mom had to go the hospital, and now Kathy is ill… I told them all to stay away from me!  It’s now less than two weeks until my heart operation… I received my instructions from the doctor, and I’m ready!  The Moody Blues greet me this morning with their song: The Other Side Of Life… 

Well, the week ended last week, ahead of the 3-day holiday weekend, with the dollar getting sold… The selling of the dollar began on Thursday, and continued on Friday… The BBDXY ended the week at 1,246, down over 4 index points total…  Gold ended the week up $4 at $2,3333.30, and Silver ended the week up 25-cents at $31.31… It was an ugly week for these metals, shoot Rudy, even Copper got ugly too…  The short paper traders had the con on the trading last week, until they didn’t on Thursday… 

Yesterday, with the short paper traders at home on their patios with their Weber grills going, Gold gained $17, and Silver gained $1.30  I have a friend that lives in Canada, and he sent me a note yesterday, letting me now that Gold & Silver were rallying…  (thanks Craig!)  I responded, “Yeah, the short paper traders are at home today!” Gold closed at $2,351.50 yesterday, and silver closed at $31.80… 

The price of Oil saw its biggest one-day drop in a month of Sundays last week, and fell to a $75 handle, but calmer heads came back on Friday and the price of Oil closed the week with a $76 handle… And the yield on the 10-year rose late last week to close the week with a 4.47% yield… 

In the overnight markets last night…The dollar drifted around, but didn’t move decisively one way or the other and trades in the same clothes as it wore on Monday, you know the ones that show that the dollar is 1,246 in the BBDXY… Gold is up a buck to start the day, and Silver is down 7-cents to start the day…  No biggie, and easily turned around for Silver, so if you’re going to buy today, make sure you do it early, while Silver is off a bit…  I have to say that I am impressed at how Gold & Silver put together the pieces after the short paper traders made a mess of them early last week… These two metals are heading to their lofty figures of two weeks ago. 

The metal that has been taken to the woodshed over and over again in recent trading sessions is Copper… Copper had traded over $5 before the short paper traders sent Copper to the woodshed… I look at this way, Copper was booking gains every day, and when that happens, you step aside and wait for the next bus… Now that Copper has backed off a bit, it’s time to board that bus and head downtown!  

The price of Oil gained another buck overnight and trades this morning with a $79 handle… Don’t know what Oil traders were thinking last week, taking Oil down to $75… But it’s water under the bridge now..  Look there, I just mixed Oil and water, and they say it can’t be done! HAHAHAHA!

The 10-year’s yield is 4.47% to start the day/ week this morning… It will be interesting to see if the bond boys want to take this rise in yield further, or not… 

So what caused the weakness in the dollar and bonds late last week?  Well, it seems that for once, the markets looked under the hood and saw quite a different picture than what the Gov’t was trying to show them…  it all came with the Durable Goods Orders… April Durable Goods orders surgied 0.7% MoM (vs. -0.8% MoM expected). However, March’s +2.6% MoM surge in orders was revised down to a +0.8% MoM rise. This is the third month in a row of MoM gains for durable goods new orders.   

With the markets finally noticing that something fishy was going on with this Gov’t Report, the took the viewpoint of: The economy is not doing as good as the Gov’t would have us believe, and therefore we could very well see a rate cut in the coming months…  And bonds got mixed up in the dollar selling, as treasuries were sold, as the vessel to get the dollar lower…  

I even read a report this past weekend where the writer was calling for 5 rate cuts this year! Wait, What? Yes, he truly believed that the Fed Heads will go all in on saving stocks for the elites…  Here’s the headline: “Fed will cut five times this year, driving gold to $3000 by H1 2025 – Citigroup’s Max Layton”  Well, I’m from Missouri, and I’m going to need the proof before I believe that…   But the markets believe it, and that’s all you need to get the dollar sold, and gold to rise… I’m just saying…

I read a report this past weekend about Commercial loans at Banks… and how they are really beginning to become real problems for the banks that hold them…  Pretty soon, I think that the Fed Heads will have no other choice but to print tons of money to help the banks… We all know what all that printing led to previously, right?   Yep… inflate or die…   

Either choice will bring about the end of the U.S. Empire… It’s already cracking around the edges, and just needs one major setback of any kind to bring about the end… This is definitely a case of this being quite Evident, but not Imminent… right now that is… 

You know every time I begin to think that the dollar has seen its best days, the PPT arrives with their arms full of cash and buys dollars and sells the currencies to protect the dollar…  But sooner or later this will all come to an end, and then the dollar will be on its own, and I don’t like its chances… 

Here’s Bloomberg.com with their take on the dollar : ” Bullish sentiment on the dollar is rapidly receding amid signs the US economy is cooling, with a group of investors holding a net short position for the first time in six weeks.

While leveraged funds still held bullish wagers on the greenback last week, they were dwarfed by increased net dollar shorts owned by asset managers, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. “

What will it take to get the “leveraged funds” to turn to the dark side with the asset managers?    Well, they need to take some major losses in their shorts, and then they will turn to the dark side… 

I say the dark side, because it’s anti American dollar… But here’s the thing, if you simply take the “American” out of it, and just say it’s the dollar and then look at the fundamentals around the dollar… I’m just saying… 

The euro, the offset currency to the dollar, after treading water to keep its head above the water line in the early part of last week, was back to booking gains VS the dollar later in the week. The Big Dog, euro, is once again within’ spittin’ distance of the 1.09 figure…  And remember when I told you about the short traders in Aussie dollars a few weeks ago? Well, they continue to get their shorts handed to them as the A$ continues to inch higher… 

And we all know that what’s good for the goose is good for the gander, right… Well, what’s good for the A$ is also good for the New Zealand dollar/ kiwi…. And don’t forget that kiwi also enjoys the one of the highest interest rates in the industrialized world…   

The best performing currency the last couple of trading sessions has been the Russian ruble… There were reports this last weekend that the Russian leader was open to ending the war…  So… to me this is how I view it, we have one war probably about to end, and another in Taiwan about to start… Geesh, when will they ever learn?  I shake my head in disgust at the war mongers… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard doesn’t really have much for us to start the week, and will end the week with the Fed Heads fave inflation calculation… The PCE (personal consumption expenditures)  and it will print on Friday this week… Before then we will see a 1^st revision to the 1^st QTR GDP, which was already revised down to 1.7%, and this revision is thought to be another downward revision to 1.2%… Shoot Rudy, by the time they get finished revising this GDP downward, it’ll be less than 1%…   Now this is where I’ll remind you all that when the first GDP print came out, I said that it would be revised downward, and not to take the lofty print then, as gospel…  

To recap… After an ugly first part of the week, the currencies and metals fought back and ended the week on a high note…  yesterday, of course, saw the short paper traders at home, and so Gold & Silver were able to rally strongly, without interference!   Chuck talks about the Empire coming to its end, and could we really see 5 rate cuts this year? 

For What It’s Worth… Well, to me it was only a matter of time before Russia played the game that the Western countries played with their funds… This outcome can be found here: Russia Confiscates €800 Million From Deutsche Bank, Unicredit And Commerzbank | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “After two years of being on the receiving end of a weaponized global reserve currency, getting booted from SWIFT, countless (toothless) sanctions and watching some $350 billion of its assets be frozen and soon confiscated, Moscow has had enough, and over the weekend the FT reported that a St. Petersburg court seized around €800 million worth of assets belonging to three western banks – Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank and UniCredit.

The seizure marks one of the largest moves against western lenders since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine prompted most international lenders to withdraw or wind down their businesses in Russia. It comes after the ECB told Eurozone lenders with operations in the country to speed up their exit plans.

According to court documents, the court seized €463 million-worth of assets belonging to Italy’s UniCredit, equivalent to about 4.5% of its assets in the country, according to the latest financial statement from the bank’s main Russian subsidiary.

Frozen assets include shares in subsidiaries of UniCredit in Russia as well as stocks and funds it owned, according to the court decision that was dated May 16 and was published in the Russian registrar on Friday.

According to another decision on the same date, the court seized €238.6mn-worth of Deutsche Bank’s assets, including property and holdings in its accounts in Russia. The court also ruled that the bank cannot sell its business in Russia; it would already require the approval of Vladimir Putin to do so. The court agreed with Rukhimallians that the measures were necessary because the bank was “taking measures aimed at alienating its property in Russia”.

Finally, on Friday, the court also decided to seize Commerzbank assets, but the details have not yet been made public so the value of the seizure is not known. Ruskhimalliance asked the court to freeze up to €94.9mn-worth of the lender’s assets, and it is safe to assume that the final amount will be in the range.

Altogether, some €800 million in Western bank assets will be confiscated.”

Chuck again… what did I say above about what’s good for the goose? it applies here for sure! 

Market Prices 5/28/2024: American Style: A$ .6667, kiwi .6165, C$ .7341, euro 1.0878, sterling 1.2792, Swiss $1.1004, European Style: rand 18.3038, krone 10.4731, SEK 10.5288, forint 352.75, zloty 3.9087, koruna 22.66.07, RUB 88.48, yen 156.69, sing 1.3472, HKD 7.8106, INR 83.18, China 7.2450, peso 16.66, BRL 5.1438, BBDXY 1,246.22, Dollar Index 104.39, Oil $79.13, 10-year 4.47%, Silver $31.73, Platinum $1,050.00, Palladium $975.00, Copper $4.83, and Gold… $2,354.34

That’s it for today… I have nothing on my agenda for this week! YAHOO! kind of… That means I have no where to go, no one to see, now that’s sad… Oh well.. This week we’ll begin June, and in June I’ve got plenty of things going on so I’ve got that going for me! HA! And then the month of July will go by so fast, because the first part of it I’m cruising, and the second part of it I’m back in Florida with my son’s family… Just laying the groundwork here so that it doesn’t come as a surprise to you when I’m not going to be writing…  Bob Marley and the Wailers take us to the finish line today with their song: Get Up, Stand Up!   I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler