Category: Uncategorized

• the dollar rallies on Tuesday
• Blowing smoke…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals listened to me yesterday (NOT!) and made quick work of the Pale hose last night… I have today left on my being by myself… And there will be no Pfennig tomorrow, as it’s an infusion day… I had forgotten that I was due for an infusion, until I received an email from the hospital reminding me of the appt. This won’t be an extra-long Pfennig this morning, as I’m very tired, and not feeling up to writing this morning… The band Marmalade greets me this morning with their great 60’s song: Reflections Of My Life… 

The dollar rebounded yesterday, with the BBDXY gaining 7 index points… I read online that it was a correction, but in my view, it was the PPT intervening again, keeping the dollar from all the selling lately… The PPT had to do something, because the data yesterday was just plain awful, which should have led those that are still hoping for a rate cut, to point to the data and say a rate cut is still on the table… I’ll discuss the awful economic data later this morning, but for now, just keep in mind that there had to be some other worldly entity to buy dollars in the face of that awful data yesterday… 

Gold started the day yesterday up $12, but soon ran into the short paper traders and had to fight to keep any gain on the day, which was $8… Gold finished the day at $3,391;;; It was Silver’s day to shine, much like it was on a day last week!  Silver gained 76-cents yesterday and went over the $17 figure… it was important that Silver maintained the $17 figure throughout the day, and it did just that! The pundits came out of the woodwork again yesterday, calling for Silver to reach $40 this year and $50 next year… Well, if that’s to be… so be it…   There will be many tears shed on this journey, but also many smiles.. So, be patient….  And buy during the dips… 

Gold’s momentum has slowed down, and I’m wondering if it has run up against a wall that says enough is enough? I tell myself that I can wonder all I want to, but Gold still has some ways to go before saying enough is enough…  I’m just saying… And I think China will be the country to say enough is enough… They continue, as a country, to add tons of physical Gold to their reserves, replacing dollars… I have something for you on that in the FWIW section this morning, so stay tuned… 

The price of Oil jumped $2 yesterday and finished the day with a $75 handle, after the POTUS fanned the flames of deeper tensions in the Middle East… Trump posted a demand for Iran’s “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” in a social media post and warned of a possible strike against the country’s leader,  that led the markets to believe that he was hinting at the U.S. joining in the fight… UGH!  

When will the markets learn that when the POTUS says something like that, he’s only blowing smoke?  At least I hope that’s what he was doing… For we can’t afford to have the price of Oil going back to $100, or spread our forces even more than they are spread now… Someone in his security detail should buy him a book on the fall of the Roman Empire… I’m just saying… 

In the overnight markets last night…  the dollar ran into a roadblock last night and the buying stopped…. Hmmm… The PPT doesn’t work at night…. I’m just saying…  The BBDXY starts today down 2 index points at 1,207… Gold is seeing some selling and is down $5 to start our day today, while Silver is down 7-cents…  Those are easily reversed, so buyer get to it!  

The price of Oil remained trading with a $75 handle overnight, and the 10-year saw some buyers and the yield dropped to 4.38%… 

Well, today is the FOMC Meeting Day, are you ready for the pack of lies that will be told to us today? Lies like the economy is moving along just fine…  We’ll see later that this just isn’t true in the Data Cupboard section. But… if the FOMC decided to throw caution into the wind, and cut rates to surprise the markets,  it would really upset the applecart, and Gold would have its new reason to be bought… 

Speaking of lies… that was a good FWIW article yesterday, eh?  All the lies that have been told to us by the Gov’t and we just accept them and go on…  But this latest statement by Treasury Sec. Bessent will be held up to be criticized in the future, if things go the way I think they will… Bessent recently said, that “The United States of American will never default”…  Hey! Mr. Treasury Sec. Didn’t your mother teach you to never say never? Mine did!   

Longtime reader, Bob, sent me this that feeds right into a discussion about defaults… “Washington burned through $12 trillion in the Middle East since 2003. Result? 7,000 dead Americans. 50,000 wounded, open borders and 100,000 Americans dying yearly from Fentanyl poisoning.”

Today, the United States is $37 Trillion in debt… and it won’t be long before we get to $40 Trillion in debt… The DEBT CLOCK tells us that in 4 short years, our current Debt will be $46 Trillion…  And when you add in the Unfunded Liabilities we’re well over $100 Trillion… The numbers begin to make you numb to them, because they are so large, you can’t even think straight about them, but just remember this… Too much debt is a bad thing if you can’t pay it back… I’m just saying….

I recall a day in 2004 when the Big Boss, Frank Trotter, dropped me note that highlighted the fact that the U.S. Deficit for that year was $700 Billion…  I gasped and said this is unsustainable, and he reminded me that the U.S. can print dollars, and then walked away…  Our deficit last year was $1.8 Trillion… What the heck happened between 2004 and 2024?   Well, I’ve chronicled all the debt increases here in the Pfennig, so I won’t bore you with a recap…   

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the May Retail Sales, and I said that the BHI indicated that this print would be negative… Well, it was negative all right… Retail Sales for May were -.9%…  That marks two consecutive months of negative Retail Sales, folks… That’s just not what the doctor ordered for GDP…  The Data Cupboard also had the May Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization, which I also said would be negative in the IP… And it was just that! May Industrial Production was negative -.2%, thus reflecting a real problem in the factories…  And finally Capacity Utilization, which is one of the few forward looking data prints, fell from 77.7% to 77.4%, and that too is not a good print for the U.S. economy looking forward….

All that awful data yesterday, and the dollar rallied?  It had to be the PPT, seriously folks for who would buy dollars at that rate if the face of that data day?

To recap… The dollar rebounded yesterday and the some pundits thought it was a “correction”, but Chuck says that the rebound had the PPT’s prints all over it… it was Silver’s day yesterday, and Chuck thinks about how Gold’s momentum has slowed… And then Chuck talks about our debt… UGH!

For What It’s Worth… This article is about how China continues to amass large quantities of physical Gold and why they are doing so…  and it was on Zerohedge.com 

Or, here’s your snippet: “While most eyes have been on tariffs and Treasury market turmoil, China has quietly executed one of the most aggressive gold accumulation strategies in the world.

And they’re not just doing it for insurance. There’s a bigger shift underway.

A Strategic Reserve Overhaul

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has now increased its gold reserves for 18 consecutive months—adding more than 300 metric tons since late 2022. Official holdings now top 2,200 tons, the highest ever. But some analysts believe the real figure could be far larger.

Behind this buying spree is a clear motivation: reduce exposure to U.S. dollar assets.

Private Investors Are Joining In

It’s not just the central bank. In April 2025, Chinese investors funneled over 70 metric tons into gold ETFs—more than doubling any previous monthly record.

Why? A slowing economy and ongoing trade uncertainty have driven domestic demand for hard assets. Gold is increasingly viewed as the best way to hedge against these shocks.

A Bid to Elevate the Yuan

By backing the yuan with growing gold reserves, China aims to enhance its currency’s global credibility. That’s a direct challenge to the U.S. dollar’s dominance in trade and reserves.

This isn’t a short-term move. It’s part of a long-term effort to reshape the global monetary order—and gold is the foundation.

 China isn’t speculating. Neither are the dozens of other central banks that have added 1,000+ metric tons of gold annually in recent years.

When nations begin treating gold as a strategic asset again, retail investors should take note. These moves aren’t about profit—they’re about survival, trust, and sovereignty. If central banks are using gold to diversify away from U.S. risk, individuals might want to ask: should I be doing the same?”

Chuck again… yes, I’ve always maintained that China’s goal was to have the most physical Gold when the fit hits the shan, Then he who has the Gold makes the rules, and that’s what China is after… They also want to back their currency with a portion of Gold and that would be a death knell for the dollar…  

Market Price 6/18/2025: American Style: A$ 6499, kiwi .6026, C$ .7330, euro 1.1504, sterling 1.3330, Swiss $1.2345, European Style: rand 18.0803, krone 9.9525, SEK 9.5960, forint 350.83, zloty 3.7154, koruna 21.5675, RUB 78.70, yen 144.93, sing 1.2849, HKD 7.8499, INR 86.49, China 7.1883, peso 18.96, BRL 5.5038, BBDXY 1,207, Dollar Index 98.63, Oil $75.34, 10-year 4.38%, Silver $37.08, Platinum $1,308.00, Palladium $1,073, Copper $4.89, and Gold… $3,386

That’s if for today, and this week… sorry about tomorrow, but as I’ve explained before, I always take the first appt in the infusion room of the day, so that I’m not subjected to delays… Next week will be shortened too, as I will be having cataract surgery on the 26th…  We’re supposed to be getting some more strong storms today, so that rules out me sitting outside to read. UGH!  We had our first day above 90 degrees yesterday, that was very late for that event… And this coming weekend Is supposed to be very hot! So, we have that going for us! HA!  Del Shannon takes us to the finish line this morning with his great 60’s song: Runaway… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar gets bought a little on Monday
• Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! No Cardinals Baseball last night for me, so I did some reading of articles, etc. Another day myself… no worries!  I did talk to my daughter, Dawn, through a closed door yesterday, so there was that! Yesterday started out very cloudy, but turned into a nice sunny day for me to sit out and read… I’m all up-to-date with my Cormoran Strike books, and have now started a new series of stories featuring Jack Noble… Wild Cherry greets me this morning with their 1- hit wonder song: Play That Funky Music

Well, the selling of the dollar took a breather yesterday, and the BBDXY gained 2 index points to end the day at 1,202…   The euro gained on the day though and went further up in the 1.15 handle… And Gold was down for the count with the short paper traders taking liberties, they were relentless and kept Gold down all day until the day finished with Gold losing $48 and closing at $3,383.  UGH! 

Silver remained stuck in the mud yesterday and ended up 1 penny on the day. Gold closed the day. Silver closed the day at $36.36…  To me, this is kind of funny.. You see, last week after Silver made its surge in price, everyone came out of the woodwork talking about how Silver is going to soar from then… But to me it’s funny because that’s not how things work…  You can’t count your eggs before they’re hatched, and you can’t count your Silver winnings before they are made…  

There are just too many underlying issues with Silver because it has so many uses… And remember that there are 180 days of production in Silver to equal the short ounces that are out there, and in Gold there are 60 days of production needed to fill the short ounces…   Don’t ask me how they get away with all that… Because I’ve told you a few times in the past… spoiler alert: The Gov’t is involved…

The price of Oil bumped higher yesterday to end the day trading with a $73 handle… And the 10-year Treasury not being burdened by the goings on in the Middle East, saw selling that took the bond’s yield to 4.44%

In The overnight markets last night…  Sans short paper traders, Gold is up $12 this morning, and Silver is back to rallying with it up 79-cents… The dollar has been sold a little overnight and the BBDXY has slipped one index point to 1,201… I’m so convinced that the FOMC will not cut rates tomorrow, that I can see the dollar rebounding a bit, but I guess it all depends on how forceful the comment about future rate cuts is from the Fed Chairman, following the rate announcement. 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $73 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield dropped back to 4.41%…  if you’ve been reading this letter daily, you’ll know that I truly believe that the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel has been buying this and the 30-year Treasury bond to contain the yield and to make the Treasury market appear safe… 

There was this on the dailyhodl.com regarding Treasury buying… “The move has triggered social media speculation that a stealth quantitative easing operation is now underway, with the Treasury mimicking the Federal Reserve’s money-printing tactics to stimulate the economy.

Skeptics argue that by repurchasing illiquid bonds with borrowed funds, the Treasury is subtly propping up the bond market to maintain confidence in an overextended system.

But Bianco Research’s Jim Bianco says claims that the Treasury’s moves are a form of quiet QE are way off the mark.

“Everyone is calling Treasury buybacks “stealth QE.” They misunderstand. This is the Treasury, not the Fed…

The Treasury cannot “print.” The Treasury borrows new more liquid “on-the-run” bonds and uses the proceeds to buyback old illiquid “off-the-run” bonds.

Buybacks do not “create money,” rather they improve the overall quality of the bond market.”

Chuck again.. Well, to me, yield control is yield control no matter how you paint that picture… the famous line is: You can put lipstick on a pig, but you’ve still got a pig..  I’m just saying…

Well, The Bank of Japan (BOJ) met last night for us, Tuesday for them, and they decided to keep rates unchanged at .50%  I can see what the BOJ is concerned about and that is the rest of the world is slowing, and they don’t want to slow up the Japanese economy one iota…  They also have to have in the back of their collective minds that the yen didn’t gain much and is right back to where it started, when they did hike rates, what do they have to do to light a fire under the yen? 

Longtime readers know that I think that Japan is a basket case with their bad demographics, their debt, their inability to hike rates when they should have done so, and other problems…  I wouldn’t touch that currency with your ten foot pole! 

The Petrol Currencies have really enjoyed this run-up of the price of Oil… And for a country like Norway, who is so closely tied to the euro, (there are no real ties, just perceived ones) and their dependence on Oil revenues, this is a doubledeedoo, for them! And those are the items behind Norway’s krone finally going below 10…  (remember, krone is a European type currency, so as the price goes down, it’s gaining VS the dollar) 

The other Petrol Currencies like the Russian ruble, pound sterling, Brazilian real, Canadian loonie, and Mexican peso, and others, are all feeling better about their ability to gain investment these days… 

And the Euro Wannabes are all firmly on the rally tracks now, folks… And to me that means the dollar has entered a new weak trend, no tiptoeing around it, or sneaking through the alley with Sally (Palmer) I know the PPT is always out there like the wolf at the door, but at this point, the rot on dollar’s vine has been exposed, and it will take a lot of TLC to heal it… That TLC includes cutting debt, balancing the budget, and get our of wars…. proxy wars are not, get out of them! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the Empire State Mfg Index and it was awful with a print of negative -16!  I was a day ahead of myself and the data prints yesterday, but today we will see May Retail Sales, (The BHI says it will be negative) and industrial Production & Capacity Utilization… Chuck said yesterday that IP will be negative, and he’s sticking to that! 

For What It’s Worth… OK, usual daily readers of the Pfennig know that I admire Matthew Piepenburg of Swiss Gold. And his writings… Well, he’s back today with a great piece of Gold and the lies that have been told to us through the years, and it can be found here:GOLD: The Global Financial System’s Lie Detector?

Or, here’s your snippet: “Is gold calling out a broken global financial system?

One Big…Lie?

Earlier this year, I was asked to give my most “heretic” opinion about the global financial system.

This was an unusual yet bold question, and after a brief pause, I answered that the entire system was…, well:

“A lie.”

This may seem like a sensational response in an industry sometimes prone to the sensational; however, if we look at stubborn facts, the answer is truer than it is extreme.

When it comes to a financial system rotting from within, the Botox-like beauty of our ballooning S&P and centralized credit market hides an aging and decrepit disease.

That is, policy lies, like Botox, can’t hide reality forever, and the evidence of a fatally debt-sick system hiding financial truths behind forked tongues and euphemistic lingo is literally all around us.

A Long List of Truth-Stretching…

From the very era of my birth, the list of lies is almost comical.

Nixon:

In 1971, for example, when Nixon decoupled the dollar from gold [thereby allowing his own and future administrations the unfettered luxury (and sickness) of expanding (debasing) the money supply], he promised the measure would be “temporary” and that “our dollar would be worth just as much tomorrow as it is today.”

Both statements, of course, were open lies.

54 years later, the dollar remains un-chaperoned to gold, and when measured against a milligram of that same precious metal, the USD (and other major Fiat currencies) has lost 99% of its purchasing power.

Meanwhile, gold is rising faster against the USD and other world currencies as their purchasing power is diluted by desperate policies to inflate away their debt with debased currencies.

Lying to Our Founding Fathers:

It’s also worth noting that our fiat paper Dollar, un-backed by gold, is a direct contradiction to our Constitution, and in my mind, is itself just another, well…Lie.

Wilson’s Fed:

But long before the lies of 1971, let us not forget the lie of 1913, when Wilson signed an equally unconstitutional Federal Reserve into law, a so-called “independent” bank which is anything but independent (it’s effectively a fourth branch of government) and is neither “Federal” nor a “Reserve.”

Larry Summers:

Fast forward to the great financial crisis of 2008, which was effectively a mortgage—backed-security credit implosion driven by an unregulated derivatives market, and we see even more staggering dishonesty.

A decade before this levered credit implosion, Assistant Treasury Secretary Larry Summers was called to Congress to answer Brooksley Born’s concerns (as head of the CFTC) that these derivative instruments, if left unregulated, would destabilize markets.

Summers publicly embarrassed Born and then told the world that the bankers in charge of these OTC instruments of levered destruction were more than sophisticated enough to manage the risks.

Of course, by the 2008 market implosion, we all knew that assertion was a lie.”

Chuck again… Matthew then goes on to tell you about the lies of Bernanke and Yellen, but I ran out of time and space… So, you’ll have to click the link to read the rest of this great article!

Market Prices 6/17/2025: American Style: A$ .6541, kiwi .6079, C$ .7373, euro 1.1571. Sterling 1.3571, Swiss $1.2315, European Style; rand 17.8199, krone 9.8751, SEK 9.4086, forint 348.07, zloty 3.6952, koruna 21.43358, RUB 78.43, yen 144.58, sing 1.2808, HKD 7.8497, INR 86.24, China 7.1827, peso 18.93, BRL 5.4923, BBDXY 1,201, Dollar index 98.04, Oil $73.14, 10-year 4.41%, Silver $37.18, Platinum $1,275.00, Palladium $1,054.00, Copper $4.87, and Gold… $3.495

That’s it for today… WOW! Is all I can say about that Arkansas pitcher who pitched just the 3^rd no-hitter in World Series history, and when he grazed a batter in the 9^th inning with a pitch, he lost his perfect game! He was great! He had 19 strikeouts! Simply amazing! Gage Wood is his name… and a name that will be heard of in the future, I do think…. My beloved Cardinals get back in the box tonight with a game with the pale hose (White Sox) C’mon boys you’ve gotta get back in the winning column!  The Cowsills take us to the finish line today with their song: The Rain, The Park and Other Things… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rally as the dollar gets taken to the woodshed.
• It’s an FOMC week….

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Man, I’m really dragging the line this morning. Too much fun yesterday, I guess…  I had a wonderful Father’s Day with my kids and grandkids, I hope you had a wonderful day too!  My Cardinals lost 3 of 4 games this past weekend in Milwaukee. UGH!  There was some major saber rattling going on in the MidEast, so we have that to talk about today… R.E.M. Greets me this morning with a very timely song: It’s The End Of The World As We Know It… 

Well, by now you all have heard that Israel attacked Iran and tried to take out their nuclear facilities… The rumors are ripe that the U.S. was behind this attack…  Either way, the dollar got sent to the woodshed on Friday, and lost 9 index points in the BBDXY, finishing out the week at 1200…  The euro shot higher to the 1.15 handle, and the rest of the currencies followed the Big Dog down the street chasing the dollar… 

I told you last week that the dollar was slowly showing us that it was entering a weak trend, and there were tons of articles this week with pundits coming out of the woodwork, talking about how the dollar’s slide could get much deeper… Well, if the dollar is indeed entering a new weak trend, then these pundits will be proven correct… But there was one thing that all of these articles forgot to mention, and that is there’s this entity called the PPT that could correct the dollar’s slide in a New York Minute… I’m just saying… 

But history shows us that that during the second half of a new POTUS’S first year, the dollar slides… So, we have that going for us, eh ?  And you longtime readers know all too well that I’m a BIG history repeating itself person… 

Gold had a good end of the week, last week… On Thursday Gold gained $32, and on Friday Gold gained $44 to end the week at $3,433… Silver has found the footing after its initial surge, a bit slippery… Silver ended the week at $36.35…  Gold showed its true colors by rallying after the news of a potential Middle East war came to light… 

And the price of Oil leapt to $74 at one point on Friday and finished the week at $72.98… The threat here is that the Strait of Hormuz could get shut down in the events of a conflict breaking out, and that would deep six Oil deliveries to the rest of the world, including the U.S.  Do you see now the importance of the U.S. getting back to Oil independence?  

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar gained 1 index point, and tried to wrap a tourniquet around the bleeding in the dollar…  Remember, a weak trend in the dollar does not mean a ONE-WAY Street… There will be times that the dollar rebounds a bit, but if the dollar is truly in a weak trend, it will swiftly return to the underlying weak trend…  I’m just saying… 

Gold is seeing some profit taking to start the day/ week this morning and is down $11… Silver is flat to up a penny…  The price of Oil remained in the $72 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury, starts the week with a yield of 4.40%

The key thing taken out of this mess last week was that the dollar is no longer a safe haven go to… And neither is the Treasuries… Gold has replaced these to former stalwarts of safe havens when the geopolitics begin to get ugly… 

I found this on Barron’s this past weekend: “The U.S. dollar fell to the lowest level in more than three years Thursday, extending one of its longest runs of declines on record as the “Sell America” trade gathers pace among foreign investors.”

The Big Event this week will be the FOMC Meeting on Wednesday…  I think the FOMC will leave interest rates unchanged, and point to the future that will have a rate cut after more economic data prints…  This won’t make the POTUS very happy, and he’s called for a full 100 Basis Points (1%) rate cut…  

There’s also a note going around that a “shadow Fed Chairman” could be in the works, thus taking the interest rate setting away from the FOMC…  Look, the Fed Heads are a bunch of chuckleheads, but it’s the way we’ve done things since 1913… I think that removing this ability to set interest rates would be very upsetting to the markets… I’m just saying… 

I found this on Bloomberg.com this morning, regarding China and its currency. This is interesting to me that is… “China’s desire to boost exports at a time of global trade turmoil means the yuan now looks set to weaken against most major currencies. One possible exception: the dollar.

The People’s Bank of China has kept the yuan’s moves against the dollar relatively steady through its daily fixing. The diverging strategies may suggest authorities are allowing the yuan to weaken against other currencies, rather than the dollar, to preserve competitiveness and cushion its export sector during ongoing trade negotiations with the administration of US President “

Chuck again, and once again, the media uses “yuan” as the currency’s name for China’s currency… They do that because saying “renminbi” is too difficult for them! The official name of the Chinese currency is renminbi…  

Do you believe the Chinese are allowing the renminbi to weaken VS the dollar to tick off the POTUS?  Well, that may hold a little bit of their reason for doing this, but the real McCoy here is that they need to keep exports to the U.S. going at a high rate… period… 

And before we head to the BIG FINISH this morning, I want to give a big shout out to the Congressmen who sponsored a new Bill to audit the Fed… The initiative, known as the Gold Reserve Transparency Act of 2025 (House Bill 3795), was introduced by Congressman Thomas Massie alongside three co-sponsors. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week will be dominated by the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. But before we get there today, we’ll see the color of the May Retail Sales… The BHI (Butler Household Index) indicates that Retail Sales for May will be negative… We’ll also see the color of May Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, and I think the Industrial Production will also be negative…  

To recap… The dollar got sold down the river late last week after the report of a Middle East conflict… Gold soared and as Chuck pointed out last week Gold is the new safe haven above the dollar and Treasuries…  It’s a FOMC meeting week, and Chuck thinks it’ll be same-o, same-o for the FOMC.. 

For What it’s Worth… I mentioned this above this morning, so I thought it to be appropriate to have an article to back it up. This is about taking away the FOMC’s rate setting ability and it can be found here: Effort to strip Fed of interest paying power seen likely to bring upheaval to markets | Reuters

Or, here’s your snippet: “A Republican senator’s plan to take away the Federal Reserve’s power to pay banks interest on cash they park on central bank books could cause chaos for monetary policy implementation if it were implemented, market participants said.

In recent days, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas has been speaking about this power and his desire to see it ended as part of what he views as an effort to save money by the federal government. Stripping the Fed of the longstanding power would save the government $1 trillion, Cruz said in a CNBC interview last week. The senator said then that he did not know if it was likely his effort would work but that it was certainly possible.

On Wednesday, Bloomberg, reported that Cruz had also lobbied President Donald Trump, who has long been at odds with the Fed, as well as Republican colleagues, about his idea.

“We’re agonizing trying to find a $50 billion cut here and there. This is over a trillion dollars, big dollars in savings,” Cruz told Bloomberg, saying of the payments, “half of it is going to foreign banks, which makes no sense.”

Cruz’s office did not respond to a request for comment. The Fed declined to comment.

Cruz’s effort is being treated cautiously by Senator Tim Scott, the Republican from South Carolina who chairs the Senate Finance Committee. “While the desire to return to pre-crisis monetary policy operating procedures is understandable,” the matter must be considered under normal Senate procedures, Scott said in a statement. Any move on this must start with a hearing, Scott said, adding, “this is not a decision to be rushed – it must be carefully considered and openly debated.”

Chuck again… I don’t really think that this will come to fruition, but you never know? 

Market Prices 6/16/2025: American Style: A$ .6516, kiwi .6046, C$ .7367, euro 1.1576, sterling 1.3585, Swiss $1.2332, European Style: rand 17.7799, krone 9.9032, SEK 9.4676, forint 346.53, zloty 3.6823, koruna 21.4680, RUB 78.71, yen 144.70, sing 1.2801, HKD 7.8494, INR 86.05, China 71801, peso 18.90, BRL 5.5436, BBDXY 1,201, Dollar Index 97.99, Oil $72.29, 10-year 4.40%, Silver $36.36, Platinum $1,267.00, Palladium $1,059.00, Copper $4.80, and Gold… $3,419

That’s it for today… I cringed when I saw the report that Israel had attacked Iran unprovoked… I don’t know where this is going to lead us, but my spider sense is telling me that it’s not a good place…  I’m still all by myself here and doing just fine!  My vitals are good every day when I take them, I have gained 5 lbs in the last couple of weeks, and that’s not good! But my doctor told me to stop losing weight.. So, I’m just following his orders! HA!  A grand time yesterday on the Butler Patio… It was a cloudy day, but no rain, so it was all good!   Yes, takes us to the finish line today with their song: Long Distance Runaround… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please! Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies & metals rally on Wednesday
• And overnight, the dollar is personal non gratis…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all… I make it a habit to watch Jeopardy daily, and the other day the song Tub Thumpin’ was the answer to a clue… I actually got that one right! My beloved Cardinals got swept by the Jays… UGH! They move on to Milwaukee now for the weekend series with the Brew Crew…   R.E.M. Greets me this morning with their popular song: The One I Love… 

Well, the dollar got sold yesterday as the STUPID CPI didn’t show any gains in inflation or did it show any drops… The stuck in the mud inflation, according to the BLS didn’t do the dollar any favors, because out the window went the rate cut hopes for July…  The BBDXY lost 4 index points yesterday…  Gold rallied on the day, and gained $32 to close at $3,356…  Silver hasn’t really seen the kind of buying it saw last week, which tells me I was correct in my thought that that day’s buying was mainly short covering… Silver lost ground yesterday and finished the day at $36.28, down 28-cents on the day… 

The price of Oil jumped higher again yesterday, and this time it closed the day trading with a $68 handle! Here’s Bloomberg.com with the reason for the jump in the price of Oil… “Oil surged as the US government ordered a partial evacuation of its embassy in Iraq amid rising security risks.”  

Chuck again… The Fed heads must have been in keeping bond yields from getting too high again yesterday, because the 10-year’s yield fell from 4.49% yesterday morning to 4.40% at the close… Another big jump in yields that has to indicate that large buyers were in buying bonds, and I can only think of one large buyer that would want to take on more risk in Treasuries, and that is the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel… I’m just saying… 

I’ve got something for you in the FWIW section today regarding Treasuries and how the time is near that the debt in the U.S. is nearing an end…  So, stay tuned, same bat channel, same bat time!

In the overnight markets last night…  Uh Oh… Time for the PPT to appear because the dollar is slip sliding away (Simon) this morning… The BBDXY has lost 7 index points overnight, and even the old Dollar Index has dropped below 98… The euro is trading above 1.15 of which I had to do a double take this morning when looking at the currencies… The rest of the currencies including the Chinese renminbi have gained ground VS the dollar this morning and look much healthier. 

I think this illustrates the feeling that I have the dollar is no longer a safe haven go to…  Gold has replaced the dollar, euro, yen and franc as the yesteryear safe havens for currencies…  In fact, the European Central Bank (ECB) issued a report over the weekend stating that Gold had replaced the euro as a reserve asset in Central Banks… I would think that it won’t be too much longer before Gold becomes the number 1 reserve asset of Central Banks globally… 

Gold starts today at $3,382, up quite a bit from yesterday’s close… Silver is not receiving the same amount of love from buyers at this point this morning and is up only 4-cents.  

The price of Oil continued to rise in the overnight markets and starts today trading with a $66 handle…  And the buying of bonds continued overnight, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond falling to 4.37% to start our day today… 

This selling of the dollar is really building momentum folks… I think at this point you came come out of your shelters, and celebrate that the mean old witch (the dollar) caught under the house that fell on it… And without the PPT to help the dollar, it will slowly die…    I’m just saying… 

The dollar even though it has fallen from 1,230 ish earlier this year, to 1,200 this morning (in the BBDXY)  is still overvalued, so from my viewpoint, which is from the cheap seats, it shows to go you that the dollar has far more to drop!   Are you with me? 

Yesterday, I mentioned that Sly Stone had died… I still picture him raising his arms above his head in a V at Woodstock, him and his white jacket with fringe…  And then yesterday I read where Brian Wilson of the Beach Boys had died… Two Rock icons back to back… i know that we all grow old and die… But this news made me sad… 

The folks at Kitco.com have their ideas on what’s behind Gold’s recent ascent… so here they are: “A key driver behind gold’s ascent has been the persistent weakness in the U.S. dollar, which Morrison notes remains “overvalued by many measures.” This currency dynamic aligns with President Trump’s stated preference for a weaker dollar to enhance American export competitiveness, creating an environment where dollar-denominated gold becomes more attractive to international investors.”

Chuck again…  Yes, slowly but surely, we are seeing the makings of a weak dollar trend, and that could be manna from heaven for the currencies, who have suffered a long time from the overvalued dollar… All the weak economic data prints in recent times paints a different picture than what your Gov’t economist will tell you about… But you don’t have to listen to them.. You have me and this letter that will chronicle all the weak economic data prints… And it’s all free! 

And regarding a store of value… I feel and I guess most of you do too, that Gold is a better store of value / wealth than the U.S. dollar…  I know that Americans are used to everything being priced in dollars… But those dollars are forever losing purchasing power.  Inflation reports in this country can’t be trusted… Only John Williams at www.shadowstats.com  computes inflation the right way, using the prices from goods that don’t change in a basket each month…  Inflation in this country is much higher than any Gov’t reports will tell us it is… and that’s eating away at your purchasing power folks… Does your dollar buy you the same size or amount of something you regularly buy this year VS last year, or even 5 years ago?  

But Gold would… You see, when Gold rises in price, the dollar loses ground, maybe not seen in the price but in the things that get priced in the dark…  Gold is much better at pricing anything…  I’m just saying… 

And you don’t have to take my word for it… “The potential issuance of more than $1 trillion in new government debt could make commodities a smarter defensive plays than bonds, according to “The Bear Traps Report” founder Larry McDonald.”

OK, let’s talk about something else, I’m beginning to break out with a rash! 

But before we move on from Gold, I saw this and it made me chuckle: “Ironic: Dollar-enforcer IMF wants to put Zimbabwe on a de-facto gold standard”  

Makes no sense to me that the IMF wants to do that… I’m just saying… 

Longtime reader, Bob, sent me this article that I’ve clipped out a snippet for your that will give you the gist of what the rest of the article is about: “A draft law submitted to the State Duma at the end of May will permit the federal government to use the digital ruble to pay for a limited list of budget expenditures starting October 1. The full-scale use of the central bank-controlled digital currency for all types of budget payments will begin on January 1, 2026.”

I’m shocked that the U.S. allowed the Russians to beat us to the punch here.. .Aren’t you? Oh, well, I don’t want to see a digital dollar but that’s not going to stop one from being issued here… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the STIPID CPI and the annual consumer inflation remained at 2.4% for May, according to the Gov’t reporters… Today’s Data Cupboard has the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which have been edging upward recently, And May’s print of PPI (wholesale inflation)…  

To recap.. The dollar got sold yesterday, and some say it was because the monthly inflation data was softer by .1% I guess the dollar bugs still think there’s a chance of a rate cut in July… Chuck says he doesn’t think it will happen in July… 

For What It’s Worth… Here’s an article I talked about above, and its Jeffrey Gundlach a bond guru, talking and I thought we needed to listen, and you can do that by clicking here: Jeffrey Gundlach Warns US Deficit Adds Risk to Treasuries – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “America’s debt burden and interest expense have become “untenable,” a situation that may lead investors to move out of dollar-based assets, according to DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach.

“There’s an awareness now that the long-term Treasury bond is not a legitimate flight-to-quality asset,” the veteran bond manager said Wednesday in an interview at the Bloomberg Global Credit Forum in Los Angeles. A “reckoning is coming.”

In a wide-ranging discussion that also touched on gold’s attractiveness, stretched market valuations, the state of private credit, artificial intelligence and long-term investment opportunities in India, Gundlach said investors should consider increasing their non-dollar-based holdings, adding that his firm was starting to introduce foreign currencies into its funds.

DoubleLine Capital CEO and CIO Jeffrey Gundlach says a “reckoning is coming” for US Treasuries. “You should be thinking about increasing your allocations to non-dollar investments,” he said at the Bloomberg Global Credit Forum.

Gundlach, 65, likened today’s market to the environment in 1999, just before the dotcom bust, as well as 2006 and 2007 before the global financial crisis. Going further, he said the booming private credit sector is analogous to the market for collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, in the mid-2000s, “where there’s just tremendous issuance, there’s tremendous acceptance.”

The investor noted that public credit markets have outperformed their private counterparts in recent months, and sees “overinvestment” — and a risk of forced selling — in the latter.

“I just don’t think the excess reward is anything close to what it used to be,”

Chuck again…  all things that I’ve talked about, but when guys like Gundlach talk about them people should listen! 

Market Prices 6/12/2025: American Style: A$ .6516, kiwi .6064, C$ .7335, euro 1.1505, sterling 1.3685, Swiss $1.2307, European Style: rand 17.8057, krone 9.9801, SEK 9.4312, forint 345.64, zloty 3.7564, koruna 21.3765, RUB 80.04, yen 143.74, sing 1.2795, HKD 7.8483, INR 85.84, China 7.1753, peso 18.89, BRL 5.5613, BBDXY 1,200, Dollar Index 97.89, Oil $66.91, 10-year 4.37%, Silver $36.28, Platinum $1,273.00, Palladium $1,080.00, Copper $4.80, and Gold… $3,382

That’s it for today… Well, today is the 49^th anniversary of Chuck and Kathy… I’ll have to celebrate it by myself as Kathy is in Florida right now… Next year it will be the BIG 50, Golden Anniversary… I think a big party ought to take place! I know where 2 of my groomsmen are, but the other 2 are AWOL!  So, I’ve got a year to find them! And Sunday is Father’s Day… My son Andrew called me last night to tell me he and his brother, Alex,  will be coming over to celebrate the day with me…  Last Sunday, all 4 grandkids were here in the pool… I watched them full of pride… All four can swim like fish.. And I can’t swim a lick!  Oh well too late to start now… Paul McCartney and Wings take us to the finish line today with their song: Band On The Run…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and all the Dads out there have a great day on Sunday… Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals go nowhere yesterday
• Germany wants their Gold returned… Good luck with that!

Good day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, after a great May for my beloved Cardinals they have started June on a sour note… Suddenly, they can’t pitch… They’re still hitting the ball, but no pitching is dooming them… UGH!  Well, my first day all by myself went well, if I do say so myself! I don’t foresee any problems arising, but then I didn’t foresee it when I had my stroke, or when I woke up in the middle of the night bleeding internally…  So, we’ll just keep our fingers crossed…  I read the other day that the great Sly Stone had died…  And therefore, I put his song on first this morning: If You Want Me To Stay…  

Well, I sure didn’t miss anything yesterday, as the dollar was flat as a pancake (Head East) Gold was going nowhere, neither was Silver, the price of Oil was flat, and the 10-year Treasury was quiet…  The BBDXY ended the day at 1,209, that’s the same level it started the day at, and the euro remained above the 1.14 figure…  There was no real economic data to move the markets, and so without any Tariffs to damage the quiet markets, there was little going on other than the riots in L.A. 

The lack of economic data ends today, as the STUPID CPI for May will print…  The markets believe that this print will be the determinate of FOMC’s decision to either cut rates in July or leave them unchanged again.  Longtime readers know I don’t like to start the letter with economic data, but I have to call out the markets here for putting so many eggs in the CPI’s basket…  I would think that by now, the markets and the especially the FOMC would be quite aware that the STUPID CPI is not the real word on inflation… Maybe the FOMC knows, but the markets still get giddy when it’s a SUPID CPI day… 

I can’t help but think that the STUPID CPI will surprise the markets with a stronger inflation number than they are expecting…  Right now, the experts think that the STIPID CPI on an annual basis will be 2.4%…   yeah, consumer inflation is on 2.4%… I believe that one like I believe in the luck that comes to you if you find a four-leaf clover… 

OK, so Gold closed yesterday at $3,324, and Silver closed at $36.56… the price of Oil remained trading with a $64 handle, and the 10-year’s yield was 4.48% at the close yesterday…  Those levels are not far, and in some cases bang on, from where they stood at Monday’s close.. 

In the overnight markets last night… There was a bit of slippage in the dollar overnight, as the BBDXY starts today down 1 index point at 1,210… The STUPID CPI print today will dictate which way the dollar goes from here… I shake my head in disgust that the markets swallow the STUPID CPI hook, line and sinker… But it is what it is, and there’s nothing I can do to change it, except point out how stupid the print is each month…   

Gold is up $10 to start our day today, and Silver is seeing some pressure and is down 26-cents to start our day today…  The price of Oil has bumped higher and trades with a $65 handle this morning…  Wouldn’t you know it? I noticed yesterday when I took my car to the shop for the inspection, that I needed to buy gas soon… it aways works out that way, that I need to buy gas whenever Oil bumps higher in price… UGH!   

The 10-year Treasury bond remained around the 4.50% level overnight, and starts the day today trading with a 4.47% yield…  This yield will too be influenced by the results of the STIPID CPI today… 

Well, countries around the world that decided to hold their Gold reserves in the U.S. are starting to ask the question, why?  Here’s a snippet of an article that was on Money Metals.com “With the U.S. weaponizing the dollar and trade, some people in Germany are calling on the Bundesbank to move at least some of its gold out of New York and bring it home to minimize the risk of U.S. meddling.

Germany owns the second-largest gold reserves in the world at 3,352 tonnes. About 1,200 tons valued at around $130 billion are stored at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.”

Chuck again…  yes, if I were the king of a country other than the U.S., and I saw everything that’s going on in the U.S. I would demand my country’s Gold be returned immediately! Do you remember the last time Germany requested their Gold be returned? And the Fed NY told them that they would have to wait several months before that demand could be met?  And an audit of our Gold holdings hasn’t been done in decades, does that make any sense to you? 

So, all the markets are talking about these days, is Silver… And usually that means that when you jump in cab and the cabbies tells you that he just bought some Silver, that the run is about over… But in Silver’s case, it has lagged Gold’s rise for so long and been held down, by the short paper traders, that I think the talk is more of a “look at Silver!, boy we’re surprised!) So, I’m not worried about the cabbies talking about Silver…  I’m just saying…   My call for Silver hasn’t changed… I expect Silver to hit $40 this year, and get back to $50 next year where it last traded in 2011…

In 2011, Forbes called me and asked to write an article for them about Silver, as it was rising through the $40 figure… The headline for the story was: Silver, The New Gold… and it ran, thus making me a regular name in households all over the world… Silver then did rise above $50 before it dropped like a rock….  

How did Silver make it to $50 with the short paper traders on the prowl? Well, this was a case that I’ve pointed out many times through the years, in that if everyone bought physical metals it would end the short paper schemes…  And that’s what happened in 2011…   

Speaking of the short paper trader’s scheme… They remain in the markets almost daily, as they still try to keep a lid on Gold & Silver…  Oh, Shoot Rudy, they have widened their scheme to Copper, Platinum and Palladium too!    But if all the ETF holders were to sell their ETF and buy the physical metal, then we could see the short paper trading scheme dissolved… Maybe?

Here are the good folks at GATA regarding that thought: “In any case GATA has long suspected that gold ETFs were, like the U.S. gold futures market, established to divert investment from real metal into mere derivatives that could create a vast, imaginary supply of gold as long as investors didn’t get wise to the racket and demand delivery.

Of course, lately there seems to have been many demands for delivery of gold, including heavy demands from central banks themselves. The major central banks, being members of the BIS, the hub of gold intervention, surely figured out long ago what was going on and, in taking delivery, have signified that they’re no longer playing along with the racket and the U.S. dollar imperialism it was engineered to enforce.”

Chuck again… We can only hope that comes to fruition, eh? 

The U.S. Data Cupboard has the STUPID CPI this morning for May… I’ll say no more about how STUPID this data is…  And that’s the only print of the day today… I’m sure the BLS will see to it that the STUPID CPI doesn’t rise…  Don’t you just love manipulators? I know that I don’t think I could function without them! NOT! 

To recap… yesterday was a nothing day in the markets that we follow… Gold, Silver, the dollar, Oil and bonds were flat to even on the day, and so, the markets must have known that I was gone for the day!  HA!   Germany wants its physical Gold back… And Chuck gloats about his past! You won’t want to have missed that! 

For What It’s Worth… Well, this was bound to happen when all the talk of very high tariffs were being announced for China… And this is the result that can be found here: China Exports To US Tumble As Transshipments To Evade Trump Tariffs Soar | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “Overnight China published its latest inflation/trade data dump. It showed that, as expected, China is still unable to kick start its economy as it remains mired in deflation, with May CPI printing -0.1% (the last time CPI was positive was in January) while PPI is going from bad to worse, printing -3.3% YoY, and negative since February 2023!

Meanwhile, China’s trade growth moderated in May – after the April surge – despite the substantial tariff rollback between the U.S. and China, and came in below consensus expectations (exports: +4.8% yoy, imports: -3.4% yoy).

The moderation in headline export growth reflects the continued fall in China’s exports to the U.S. with another 17% sequential decline after seasonal adjustment. Meanwhile, the decline in imports appears widespread, consistent with fewer working days in May compared with a year ago.

By product, export value of housing-related products fell in May, while exports of automobile and tech-related products rose. The imports of energy products and metal ores declined notably, partly due to falling prices. Overall, the trade surplus was US$103.2bn in May, higher than in April.

By region, while China’s exports to the US plunged further in May, exports to other economies picked up.”

Chuck again… Well, if you have the time to view this article on line, you’ll find a lot of very interesting charts regarding what this article is all about… I’m just saying…

Market Prices 6/11/ 2025: American Style: A$ 6506, kiwi .6029, C$ .7327, euro 1.1430, sterling 1.3490, Swiss $1.2158, European Style: rand 17.7876, krone 10.1199, SEK 9.6127, forint 350.37, zloty 3.7874, koruna 21.6769, RUB 79.04, yen 145.20, sing 1.2866,  HKD 7.8482, INR 85.55, China 7.1882, peso 19.01, BRL 5.5146, BBDXY 1,210, Dollar Index 99.-06, Oil $65.92, 10-year 4.47%, Silver $36.30, Platinum $1,267.00, Palladium $1,094.00, Copper $4.78, and Gold… $3,333

That’s it for today… Well, I think I had told you that my cataract surgery is now scheduled for June 26th… So, there’ll be no Pfennig on that day, just mark your calendar!  This coming Sunday is Father’s Day… And it’s at this time each year that I get all sappy about my dad… I’ll try not to do that this year… But I sure miss my dad, he was a man among men, and I’ll leave it at that… for now…  make sure you go to see your dad, and tell him you love him…   Because, well, just because!  Steely Dan takes us to the finish line today with their song from the same album name: Aja…  ( I love this album!) I hope you have a Wonderful  Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals get sold on Friday due to Jobs data
• Living paycheck to paycheck…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals took 2 of 3 from the mighty Dodgers this past weekend. Playing to the level of their Competition has been a problem for this team for years now… But they are playing well these days, so I’m not complaining… The weekend was full of rain again… So, I didn’t get outside much, but I did take avantage of the times when the sun did shine!  Golden Earing greets me this morning with their big song: Radar Love

The dollar saw a mini rally on Friday, with the BBDXY gaining 4 index points to end the week. The euro saw the 1.14 level get taken out, and the single unit ended the week at 1.1397…  the sentiment on Wall Street has shifted again, and now the thought is of a delay in the rate cut that everyone was giddy about earlier last week… We’ll get into what caused this shift in a bit…  

On Thursday before I signed off, Silver was kicking some tail and taking names later. Silver ended up $1.11 on Thursday but then had to succumb to the short paper traders and Gold’s weakness and lost 27-cents to end the week. Gold closed Friday at $3,311. Silver ended the week at $36.04

Gold finished last week on a down note, losing ground on Thursday and Friday… Gold lost $21 on Thursday and lost $45 on Friday..  The short paper traders were quite prevalent in the markets those days… I shake my head in disgust at these dirty rotten scoundrels… 

Here are a couple of the reasons for Gold’s sell-off late last week, that fueled the short paper traders even more…  the PMI Services data print on Wednesday and the Job jamboree on Friday both showed something that the Fed Heads need to address… 

First if was the PMI Services print that showed that inflation ramped up in May… here’s something I found on that: “In discussing May inflation pressures, S&P’s U.S. Services PMI report noted the following:

… tariffs and suppliers generally raising their prices meant input cost inflation accelerated steeply in May to its highest since June 2023. Wages were also reported to be a factor pushing up overall operating expenses.

Service sector companies responded by passing on their increased input costs to customers wherever possible. Output charge inflation subsequently jumped noticeably in May, hitting its highest level since August 2022.”

Chuck again… Inflation isn’t going below 2% any time soon, folks… and that means the Fed Heads will probably have to skip the July rate cut that was so responsible for Gold’s rally earlier last week… 

 And the Jobs Jamboree was full of lies and fraud… The BLS added 199,000 jobs to the surveys…  that makes a total of 592,000 jobs added out of thin air by the BLS in the last two months!   How can these folks get away with this fraudulent reporting? And then come back and revise their numbers at a later date, and no one except me, goes ape! 

But the Jobs number was the reason for the shift in sentiment… Strange don’t you think that the Jobs number is fraudulent, and full of made-up jobs, and yet the markets swallow the data hook, line and sinker?   That’s been a problem for the markets for decades, they take the reports for what they show, and don’t look under the hoods… And then when the revisions come later, they act like they didn’t have any idea they were coming…  Really? Yes! 

The 10-year Treasury bond saw major selling on Friday, as the bond boys all have changed their sentiment again… The 10-year’s yield rase to 4.50% on Friday, and hasn’t looked back… This is a HUGE move for the 10-year, folks… I used to be a bond trader, and a wild swing like this one don’t come along very often… I’m just saying… 

In the overnight markets last night…  The dollar’s mini rally was snuffed out, and the selling of the dollar resumed, the BBDXY is down 3 index points this morning to start the day/ week at 1,208… The euro is back above the 1.14 figure this morning, and the rest of the currencies look healthier as we start the week. I want to point out something that I’ve talked about previously, and that tis the Euro Wannabes… The currencies of Hungary, Poland and Czech Republic make up this trio of countries with currencies that a very dependent on the euro for their moves, higher or lower VS the dollar. 

It has aways been my contention that when the Euro Wannabes get firmly on the rally tracks that the dollar is in trouble… And as I check the currencies this morning, the Euro Wannabes are not yet firmly on the rally tracks, but they are looking like their getting ready to do just that!  This is the caution that currency traders have to deal with these days, because of the PPT and their treasure chest of funds to intervene I the dollar to keep from falling off a cliff…  So, what I’m saying is to keep an eye on this trio, and watch for them to either keep moving higher VS the dollar… 

Gold is up to start the day/ week today $14, and Silver is up 28-cents. I read a piece on Kitco.com this past weekend that talked about even though Gold failed to hold the $3,400 figure, that the sentiment remains that Gold’s rise is not over… And the thoughts on Silver are even more brazen, in that the forecasters now say Silver will reach $40 by year end, and then march to $50 next year… 

The price of Oil trades with a $64 handle this morning, and the 10-year Treasury’s yield sits at 4.51% this morning, ready, willing and able to continue its march higher… 

I read this last weekend that 63 U.S. banks are on the Brink of collapsing… The reason? Same-o, same-o, They bought low, near zero yielding Treasuries and they are now in the red… If these collective banks were to be exposed they would probably see runs on their deposits, and then the Fed’s would come in and close them down, like they did the 3 banks in the spring of 2024 (I think that’s when it was, I lose track of time these days)  These 63 banks have a running total of $517 Billion in losses on their books… 

Look…  we all knew that the decade of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) was taken by first, Big Ben Bernanke, then by Janet Yellen, and finally by Jerome Powell, (who ended it finally!)  would come back to bite us in the rear…  

I don’t think that all the hype over the bruhaha in the White House between the POTUS and Elon Musk is anything but drama to get our minds off of the debt, and how the BIG Beautiful Bill will increase the debt not cut it…  So, don’t get all into the argument, but keep your eye on the ball, which is the debt… 

So, what’s up with the Honker? Well, the Hong Kong dollar, aka the honker, has traded weaker to the dollar for the last couple of weeks, and it appeared to me that it had broken out of the range that it had held in the peg to the dollar for eons… But in a closer look the honker is trading at the bottom end of its range VS the dollar, so the peg is still in place… I used to say that when China took over Hong Kong from the British that they would allow the honker to float, and use that experience to guide them to eventually allow the renminbi to float…  But none of that happened, other than the renminbi to somewhat float…  So, you know what they say about the best laid plans of mice and men? 

And remember me telling the European Central Bank (ECB) members not to get to giddy about the fall of inflation and to quite cutting rates?  Well, much like my kids, they didn’t listen to me, and when inflation comes back with a vengeance, they will wish they had listened to me!  At least there was one member of the ECB that came out and chastised the ECB members for falling for the inflation trap… Good for him, but one voice doesn’t change the council, he has to try to get more members to join his thoughts… I’m just saying… 

For What it’s Worth… This is something that I’ve touched on in the past, and that is how many people are living paycheck to paycheck, and that’s not how a country’s GPD grows… This article can be found here;https://finance.yahoo.com/news/whats-driving-americans-live-paycheck-201232579.html

Or, here’s your snippet: What’s Driving Americans To Live Paycheck To Paycheck? One Person Says It’s Like Being ‘Thrown Into Adulthood Without A Map’

What’s Driving Americans To Live Paycheck To Paycheck? One Person Says It’;s Like Being Thrown Into Adulthood Without A Map;

Many Americans are stuck living paycheck to paycheck, and it’s not just because they don’t make enough money. While low wages and the rising cost of living are factors, Reddit users recently shared a much broader picture of the problem, revealing how complex and widespread the issue really is.

It’s More Than Just Low Wages

“At first glance, it seems obvious: people just don’t make enough money, right?” one Redditor wrote. “But the more I read and the more conversations I had, the more I realized that income is only one piece of a much bigger puzzle.”.

Many pointed to the rising cost of living. Essentials like rent, food, healthcare, and transportation have surged, while wages have barely moved. “The cost of living has doubled and we’re still getting paid the same ridiculous salary,” one person wrote.

Even people who do save find themselves drained by constant emergencies. “I was just starting to feel good! Caught up on bills, saving for emergencies, finally contributing to my retirement then a random light flashes on my car dashboard,” someone shared. “There goes all the emergency money I built up.”

Medical bills, vet visits, car repairs, and home maintenance were frequently mentioned. “No amount of budgeting works when the average pay in the USA isn’t enough to pay for rent if you’re single,” another said.”

Chuck Again… This is a real problem for a lot of Americans folks, and the GDP will suffer weakness because of this problem… But I feel for these folks… I remember as a young lad, my dad telling me that “Every time I seem to be getting ahead, I get hit with something that causes me to have to start all over again”…  Get back into the lower middle class where you belong… 

Market Prices 6/9/2025: American Style: A$ .6524, kiwi .6054, C$ .7313, euro 1.1418, sterling 1.3658, Swiss $1.2183, European Style: rand 17.7195, krone 10.0689, SEK 9.610, forint 351.98, zloty 3.7088, koruna 21.7913, RUB 79.13, yen 144.20, sing 1.2858, HKD 7.8481, INR 85.63, China 7.1813, peso 19.65, BRL 5.5600, BBDXY 1,208, Dollar Index 98.95, Oil $64.74, 10-year 4.51%, Silver $36.32, Platinum $1,209.00, Palladium $1,095.00, Copper $4.89, and Gold… $3,318

That’s it for today… Pretty chock-full-o-news today, eh? Well, I did that on purpose because there will be no Pfennig tomorrow… I’ll pick it back up again on Wednesday… I’LL be all by myself for the next 10 days starting tomorrow, I won’t have anyone to bring me coffee while I write! UGH! Darling Daughter, Dawn, will be here in the mornings as she starts giving her swim lessons again this year.  I love to sit outside and watch the little ones learn to swim… They are so darn cute! Ok, before you get me suited with a sappy suit… The Temptations take us to the finish line today with their song: I Wish It Would Rain…  Which I don’t wish for, but then it’s a song… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar continues to get sold…
• China’s payment system is kicking tail and taking names later!

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, the Cardinals and Royals were rained out last night as heavy showers and thunderstorms moved through our area… The area of St. Louis that got hit hardest by the tornado on May 16th, are still trying to clean up, and they get hit with another rainstorm… I know the feeling of having thoughts that every thing you do, turns our badly… I’m just saying… When you have metastatic cancer, like I do, every little pain brings about thoughts that it’s cancer that has popped up somewhere else! Del Shannon greets me this morning with his song: Runaway… (they don’t make music like that any longer!)

Well, the dollar didn’t get bought overnight again last night, thus making Monday night this week the only time the dollar saw some love…  I told you yesterday that I truly believed it was the PPT’s work to intervene and buy dollars Monday night… I’m getting ahead of myself here… 

The dollar saw some selling yesterday, and the BBDXY closeed down 4 index points to 1,209.. The euro moved higher in the 1.14 handle, and the rest of the currencies added to the perkiness they showed yesterday morning. The economic data lately isn’t doing the dollar any favors… Durabe Goods were negative, Factory Orders were negative, the Manufacturing index (ISM) was below 50 again, showing contraction,  Personal Spending dropped Big Time in April, the weekly jobless claims climb a little more each week, and yesterday the ADP Employment Report for May showed that only 37,000 jobs were added…  

All this bad data leads to the markets putting pressure on the Fed Heads to cut rates… To the Fed Heads credit, they have resisted so far, so they can have a look at what the tariffs do to inflation…  But if the economic data continues to print all these bad numbers I don’t think the FOMC will think they have no other choice but to cut rates on July 29, their next meeting… 

The price of Gold gained $24 and closed the day at $3,375, while Silver gained 11-cents to close at $34.60…   Gold is moving along just fine folks, I know it’s not running away here, but we really don’t want that, instead, we would like for Gold to make slow, steady gains, so that new buyers can get on board without having to chase the market higher, which I fear has scared the bejeebers out of potential buyers in the past… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $63 handle yesterday, and the 10-year Treasury took the rate cut sentiment at saw buyers lower the bond’s yield to 4.37%…  

In the overnight markets last night…  there was more slippage in the dollar, with the BBDXY down 1 index point to start the day today at 1,208… The currencies all look healthier this morning, after a few days of dollar weakness… I’ll point out a few of them that have moved to a new level… Currencies like the Aussie dollar, and the Chinese renminbi, Canadian Loonie, Mexican peso, S.African rand, and the euro… IF the dollar is allowed to continue to weaken, then we’ll see more of these currencies rise to new levels… 

Gold is up $20 to start the day today, and Silver is the bright shining start this morning, as it is up over a buck! Silver start the day today trading $35.88 up over $1.20… What bee has gotten in Silver’s bonnet this morning? Well, it appears to me that this is a classic short covering…  And if that’s the case, I welcome all those that have closed out their short positions… 

The price of Oil remains trading with a $63 handle this morning, and the 10-year Treasury didn’t see any movement last night from yesterday’s close of a 4.34% yield… 

But this is Silver’s day! 

You know, the bond boys have gone against the market’s sentiment to cut rates for several months now, but all the bad/ weak data now has them willing to see a rate cut is coming, and they shouldn’t keep marking up yields in bonds… 

And the dollar, without the PPT, is moving weaker all the time, bit, by bit, step, by step, after awhile they all add up and the dollar is in a weak trend…  I found this on Boomberg.com last night regarding something else that could be harmful to the dollar going forward: “A foreign tax provision in US President Donald Trump’s massive fiscal package could trigger a 5% plunge in the dollar and send equities reeling if it takes effect, according to Allianz SE’s chief investment officer Ludovic Subran.

The item, introduced in legislation that passed the US House in May as Section 899, is “exactly what people don’t spend enough time on,” Subran said in an interview on Bloomberg TV on Tuesday. The provision would increase tax rates for individuals and companies from countries whose tax policies the US deems “discriminatory.”

Chuck again… You know, it’s bad when foreign banks begin to diss the dollar… I’m just saying! 

I have a longtime reader, Bob, who sends me stuff all the time, and I use quite a bit of his submissions to me… Some time ago, Bob, sent me a note regarding China’s payment system that’s an alternative to SWIFT (U.S. Run)   And here’s something to show you regarding how well, China’s system is working, in rivaling SWIFT… 

A growing number of countries now prioritize trade with China over the U.S., which has broad implications for diplomacy, investments, and trade agreements.

In 2002, most countries traded more with the U.S. than China.

• The U.S. was the top trading partner for Brazil, Canada, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, and the U.K.
• China was the top partner only for Hong Kong.

By 2022, China had surpassed the U.S. as the top trading partner for many countries.

• The U.S. was the top partner for Canada, China, India, Ireland, Mexico, and the U.K.
• China was the top partner for Australia, Brazil, Germany, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Africa, Thailand, and Vietnam.”

Pretty evident isn’t it that these countries using China’s system find it easier and faster to use than SWIFT…  That’s just my opinion…  and add to that thought these countries don’t want to have their trade frozen if the U.S. decides to not like them any longer! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the usual Thursday print… The Weekly Initial Jobless Claims… and the April trade Balance (read deficit)  We’ll also see the 1^st QTR Productivity print for us… This of course is something that I diss whenever I get the chance, because in essence it’s a pulse on how hard and long did workers work…  

Yesterday’s Data Cupboard had the aforementioned ADP Employment Report, and it was a surprise print at just 37,000 jobs created in May… We also had the Fed’s Beige Book print, and in it, it was revealed that the Fed Heads reported a slower economy…  hey! I could’ve told them that! 

To recap… the dollar got sold again yesterday, and the previous night there was no buying… Chuck lists the problems with the economic data that’s weighing on the dollar right now… Gold sees a slow, steady increase in price, and that’s just fine with Chuck!  China’s payment system is beating the pants off SWIFT! 

For What It’s Worth…  Well, I grew tired of reading all the articles about the upcoming FOMC meeting in July, and the prospects for a rate cut, so I turned to this article about what happens when bad things happen in the world, to Gold… and it can be found here: Gold Soars When Sh*t Hits the Fan – The Daily Reckoning

Or, here’s your snippet: “After a disturbing weekend where the world flirted with WW3, gold and silver flew higher on Monday.

Silver stood out, popping nearly 5%, with the largest silver miner ETF (SIL) rising more than 6%. Spot gold rose mildly, but gold miners jumped by about 5%.

This is the strange part of being a gold/silver bug. Bad news can be great for your portfolio.

It’s important to maintain the right state of mind. We do not root for bad events to happen, we prepare for them.

In this case, gold and silver are soaring due to a combination of factors:

Threat of WW3

Worsening trade war

Global debt bubble

We aren’t happy about these events. We are prepared for them. This is an important distinction. One needs to be careful to not get into a mindset of rooting for negative developments.”

Chuck again… Yes, I find myself at times thinking about how if this bad thing happens then Gold will respond favorably, and then I shake myself out of that dream, and then think about how the economy will suffer… UGH!

Market Prices 6/5/2025: American Style: A$ .6510, kiwi .6047, C$ .7320, euro 1.1421. Sterling 1.3570, Swiss $1.2196, European Style: rand 17.7474, krone 10.0813, SEK 9.5786, forint 353.41, zloty 3.7577, koruna 21.7204, RUB 79.27, yen 143.29, sing 1.2846. HKD 7.8470, INR 85.79, China 7.1788, peso 18.21, BRL 5.6371, BBDXY 1,208, Dollar Index 98.85, Oil $63.00, 10-year 4.34%, Silver $35.88, Platinum $1,130.00, Palladium $1,039.00, Copper $4.99, and Gold… $3,394

That’s it for today, and this week… The Big Bad Dodgers come to town tomorrow night for a weekend series with the Cardinals… Baseball is interesting in that pre-season forecasts for the Dodgers were for them to win more than 100 games… And then the Baseball Gods decided to devastate their pitching staff with injuries, and now they are just 1.5 games in first place!  Rain here for the next few days… UGH! I wonder if they will get that doubleheader in today… The Marmalade takes us to the finish line today with their great 60’s song: Reflections Of My Life… (They don’t make music like that any longer!) I know, I already said that above but it holds true here too! I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies & metals get sold on Tuesday…
• Adrian Dau drops by the Pfennig!

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! OUCH! That was me last night as my beloved Cardinal blew a 7-2 lead and lost the game to the Royals… UGH! Day 3 at home by myself went along just fine, I even made myself some smash burgers for dinner last night! I didn’t order my dinner through Door Dash, and… I even cleaned the dishes and skillet I used and put them all away! Oh! I won’t be getting my cataract surgery on Monday as previously planned… it’s been delayed to June 26th…  It’s a long story as to why it was postponed, so if we ever meet in a pub, I’ll tell you! Stevie Guitar Miller and his band greet me this morning with their song: Rockin’ Me Baby… 

When I left you yesterday morning, albeit late, I told you that the dollar had gotten bought in the overnight markets and the BBDXY was up 7 index points to 1,213… I put that down to the PPT using some of their Exchange Stabilization Funds to prevent the dollar from falling off a cliff… Well, guess where the BBDXY ended the day yesterday?  1,213… So, no follow through from the dollar bugs yesterday, and that really confirms to me that the dollar’s rally on Monday night was the PPT…

So, the dollar remained at 1,213 in the U.S. trading session…  I also told you that Gold was down $21 and Silver was down 32-cents… Well, the two metal fought back during the day and just about closed the gap on their early morning losses… Gold ended up down $4 to $3,378, and Silver ended up down 12=cents to $34.72… So, it wasn’t as bad a day as it appeared it would be in the early morning. 

I would have expected the short Paper traders to step in and make the overnight losses even worse, but if they did, they got drowned out by the physical buying of Gold and Silver…  Could yesterday’s non-performance by the short paper traders indicate that what some that observe their activity very closely think that all this manipulation may be fading…  

I’m from Missouri, so I’ll have to be shown that the SPT’s are going back under the rocks they came from…  I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $63 handle yesterday, and the 10-year Treasury is acting like buoy in the water, bobbing up and down… On Monday the yield on the bond was 4.45%, then on Monday night it was 4.43%, then yesterday it ended the day at 4.45%… See what I mean?  I think the bond boys are waiting to see the Jobs Jamboree this Friday… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar didn’t receive the love it did the previous night, and the BBDXY is down 2 index points this morning to start the day. The euro has climbed back above 1.14, and the rest of the currencies are looking much like they were late last week… Perky… Yeah, that’s the word I’m looking for here! Gold is up a couple of bucks and Silver is down around 30-cents this morning… 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $63 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury bond saw its yield drop to 4.41%… 

You know, it’s very difficult to call a weak trend for the dollar, as long as the PPT is lurking in the dark alley, just waiting for the dollar to slip and they will be there to pick the dollar back up…  I have to wonder what the POTUS thinks about the PPT stepping in to save the dollar each time it begins to slip? He has stated that he wants a weaker dollar, and the PPT is standing it a weaker dollar’s way…  Maybe he’ll deport the PPT to another country? HA! 

Well, have you heard of Adrian Day? He’s a very well respected analyst that we’ve crossed paths a few times in the past… Well, the folks at kitco.com printed an interview he did with them, and he made a Big Statement about the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel…  he said, “It’s difficult to think of a scenario that’s fundamentally gold-negative.” He described central banks buying gold, Chinese investors hedging yuan devaluation, and rising fiscal concerns as the main drivers going forward.”

And then he went on to say, “the markets are overlooking a looming liquidity crisis that could force the Federal Reserve to resume quantitative easing (QE) as early as September.”

Chuck again….In my opinion, they are already performing QE by keeping yields from going higher now, but they are doing stealth-like… As Adrian suggests they would announce QE… 

And don’t you think that QE would be added to all these other things and Adrian mentioned that should there to support Gold’ further rise… To infinity and Beyond (Buzz Lightyear) 

Speaking of Gold… Rich Checkan of Asset Strategies had this to say about Gold’s performance in May… “Gold slipped 0.1% in May, remaining essentially flat.

This pause is an excellent opportunity to obtain gold at current price levels before it continues to stairstep up in this bull market.

It’s up 26% this year, and the current trading range is a fortuitous opportunity to obtain gold at current price levels.”

I find that the metals trading this week so far is frustrating… The metals were hot as the midday sun on Monday and then turned cold as a… no, chuck you can’t say that, just say they were cold…  and today, they are meh…  All this manipulation is not inducive to a strong or weak trend…  Gold would have been positive yesterday, but it say short paper trading and was off $40 from its high for the day… But hold on to your hats folks, Gold and Silver’s truly strong breakout is coming… It’s like the dollar’s collapse… it’s maybe quite evident, just not imminent right now…  

Chuck Again… Proving that he was correct about that as he said it before Gold’s breakout on Monday, Gold took off on Monday…  Like I always remind you when the SPT’s take their pound of flesh from Gold & Silver… all they did was give potential buyers a cheaper price to enter the market…   

The U.S. Data Cupboard today will have the ADP Employment Report for May… And right now, the forecast for the data is that just 110.000 jobs were added in May… 

Yesterday’s Data Cupboard had the Factory orders for April printed negative -3.7%… I told you yesterday that give what Factory Orders kissiin’ cousin reports had printed that to me it appeared this report would be negative… 

To recap… the dollar ended the yesterday, at the same level it started the U.S. session, 1213… Chuck points out that Monday Night’s buying of the dollar overseas, was most likely the PPT intervening to keep the dollar from falling off a cliff… Gold & Silver fought back on their early morning losses to end the day down just a small amount…  Adrian day visits us today and tells us the Fed/ Cabal/ Carte; will have to implement QE by September..  And Chuck thinks that this would send Gold to infinity and beyond! 

For What it’s Worth…  Well, I don’ talk about housing much in this letter, except that when FOMC cuts or adds to interest rates and how it will affect the housing markets…  But this article is very telling and I think you’ll find It very interesting about Housing and it can be found here: Nearly Half Of $700B In Homes For Sale Have Gone ‘Stale’ As Sellers Outnumber Buyers By 500K | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “There’s a total of $698 billion worth of homes for sale in the U.S., up 20.3% from a year ago and the highest dollar amount ever.

This is based on an analysis of listings on Redfin.com going back through 2012. For the total dollar value of all inventory on the market, we sum up the list price of all active U.S. listings as of the last day of each month; April 2025 is the most recent month for which data is available. For the purposes of this report, the term “value” is interchangeable with “list price”; i.e., when we refer to “total home value,” we mean the sum of all list prices. We define “stale inventory” as home listings that spend at least 60 days on the market and are actively listed for sale on the final day of the relevant month.

The total value of U.S. home listings is at an all-time high because of the combination of growing inventory, slowing demand, and increasing home-sale prices.

Well, dear reader, I spent 27 years in residential real estate, mostly with Re/Max way back in a previous life — and I can tell you that unless interest rates start falling quickly — and soon…the real estate market in the U.S. [and elsewhere] is toast. I worked my way through a couple of booms and busts during my tenure in that business that began in 1980 — and all the signs of an impending housing market bust are in. “

Chuck again… that won’t be a good thing for the economy folks… think back to the housing debacle of 2007/08… I’m just saying…

Market Prices 6/4/2025: American Style: A$ .6493, kiwi .6022, C$ .7300, euro 1.1403,  Sterling 1.3529, Swiss $1.2164, European Style: rand 17.7469, krone 10.`083, SEK 9.5956m forint 453.46, zloty 3.7558, koruna 21.7475, RUB 78.78, yen 143,79, sing 1.2882, HKD 7.8465, INR 85.90, China 7.1863, peso 19.19, BRL 5.6177, BBDXY 1,211, Dollar Index 99.20, Oil $63.39, 10-year 4.41%, Silver $34.41, Platinum $1,087.00, Palladium $1,026.00, Copper $4.87, and Gold… $3,356

That’s it for today… That was quite the ugly game last night by the Cardinals… I sure hope they don’t have any more of those up their collective sleeves! I’m so bummed out about the postponement of my cataract surgery… UGH! But there’s nothing I can do about it, so I’ll move along… I did some walking yesterday, a little further than usual, and I didn’t suffer for it, so that’s a good thing! And… I drove my car, for the first time in a couple of months! A short distance, but I drove it nonetheless… it felt good to me to behind the wheel again! The Marshall Tucker Band takes us to the finish line today with their great song: 24 Hours At A Time… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals get bought on Monday
• But the overnight markets see profit taking..

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, no baseball last night for me, instead I watched the Jeopardy Masters Championship quarterfinals… I always try to answer the clues on Jeopardy, and every now and then I get the whole category right! But not often!  Did I tell you that I’m home all by myself until tomorrow as Kathy has gone to the lake with “the girls”…  This is just a precursor for June 10^th through 20th, when Kathy will be in Florida… I guess she thinks I’m good to go now, and I wouldn’t argue with her on that!  Steelers Wheel greet me this morning with their song: Stuck In The Middle With You… 

Well, a headline on Kttco.com said it all last night… “Gold looks good, but silver looks better, and the USD looks terrible”… Couldn’t have said it better myself! The dollar did get sold yesterday, as the rate cut thought we talked about yesterday, filtered through the markets. The BBDXY lost 5 index points on the day, and ended the day at 1,206… The euro remained above the 1.14 figure and the rest of the currencies all perked up during the day. 

Gold, without interference, took off for the hills.. And gained $84 to close at $3,382, and Silver outperformed all the assets, by gaining 86-cents, and was up over $1 at one point in the day…  It’s all about a July rate cut, folks… I told you yesterday that it would be the focus of the media and markets until July 29^th when the FOMC next meets… 

The price of Oil remained above $63 on the day, and the 10-year Treasury saw its yield rise by 2 BPS to 4.45%…  

In the overnight markets last night… What are the foreign markets thinking? The bought dollars hand over fist last night, and the BBDXY Sits this morning up 7 index points at 1,213… I can’t find anything that explains this upward move in the dollar, after getting sold yesterday in the U.S. So, you know what I’m thinking?… The PPT and their treasure chest of Exchange Stabilization Funds stepped in to apply a tourniquet and then some to the dollar… 

Gold can’t add to yesterday’s euphoria in metals and sits this morning down $21 and Silver is down 32-cents… it seemed yesterday, that the past was put in the rearview mirror for the metals, as they rallied BIG TIME… So, I’ll put this down to profit taking this morning… 

The price of Oil bumped up to a $63 handle overnight, and the 10-year’s yield dropped back to 4.43%  I get it, all the talk is about a rate cut in July, but seriously, there are a basket full of things that can take place between now and July 29, so why get all lathered up now?   But that’s the markets for you… 

Ok, so, have you ever wondered what happened to the Audit Fort Know hysteria that was so prevalent this past winter?  Well, it was put on the back burner, where it will remain, probably forever… Why? Because, in my humble opinion, someone with some gray matter thought it over an decided that to make a big deal out of Gold and all the photo ops that would be available, that the public didn’t need to see, and bring Gold to their attention… Remember, Americans for the most part, do not buy or own Gold… Why? Because they must not have the elevator go to the top floor… But that’s just me thinking out loud…  

It has long been the view of the U.S. Gov’t that Gold is an enemy of the dollar, ad it goes back to right after Nixon removed Gold from the dollar in August 1971… Longtime Pfennig Readers may recall when I printed a discussion between Kissinger, and a state dept head, talking about how they need to diss Gold in the public’s eyes…  That’s when I realized that the short paper trading scheme came about from the U.S. Gov’t…  That’s my viewpoint, and you won’t change it… All those calls on the red carpet at EverBank telling me to “cool it with the Gov’t interventions talk” didn’t budge me on iotal… So, don’t even think about trying to change my mind!

OK, I had a dear reader send me a note asking me about BASEL III and Gold…  So, basically, BASEL III   is a set of internationally agreed upon regulatory standards for banks, has a significant impact on gold, particularly in how banks classify and manage it. Under Basel III, physical gold is now recognized as a Tier 1 asset, meaning banks can use it as a high-quality reserve asset, similar to cash or government bonds. This change has implications for gold’s demand, price, and its role in the financial system. 

The Basel Framework as implemented in the EU, UK and the US also recognizes gold as a form of eligible “financial collateral” that banks can use for the purpose of credit risk mitigation with respect to collateralized transactions. This places gold alongside other assets, such as cash, debt securities, and equities. And…. 

Would open the door to Banks buying Gold and holding it in reserves, and using it for collateral etc.   This has been in the cards for sometime and I recall writing about it when it was first passed, but its start data was so far out, that it just got put on the back burner… But I recall me saying that this regulation was BIG for Gold back in the day, and I still believe that!  

And there are thoughts that BASEL III will be the end of the short paper trading… For, IF banks do partake in owning Gold as collateral, they won’t want some entity to mess with their accounting and pricing of the collateral… Now, that would be simply wonderful, folks…   I’m just saying… 

OK, the dollar seems to be teetering here… it’s gone back and forth around the 100 level in the Dollar Index and 1,215 in the BBDXY… There are plethora of items lining up to take a short at the dollar these days…  We have the tariffs on/ off debacles, we have the ratings cut by Moody’s, we have the new thought that interest rates could be cut in July, we have the debt, which is still growing and most likely to get a boost in debt growth with the passage of the Big Beautiful Bill, and then we have questions about our ability to sell enough Treasuries to finance the debt…  

There are more, but what’s the use of listing them when we know that the PPT will not allow the dollar to drop too much…  Much like the Fed Heads prevent a recession from happening, and cleaning out all the excesses, the PPT won’t allow a weak dollar trend to gain roots… 

And since this is a Jobs Jaboree week, this article on zerohedge.com is appropriate… “For years, the federal government has been telling us that the unemployment rate in the U.S. is very low.

Everyone knows that is a bunch of hogwash.

According to a report that was recently released by the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity, the true rate of unemployment in the U.S. was 24.3 percent last month…  

The article then goes on to say: “Do you ever feel like you are “functionally unemployed”?  If so, you are definitely not alone.  There are lots of people out there that cannot pay the bills each month even though they have jobs.  In fact, there are lots of people out there that literally cannot afford to put a roof over their heads even though they are employed.  Yes, there are many hard-working Americans that are now living in their vehicles or in “tent communities” because that is all they can afford.  In recent years, the cost of living has been rising much faster than paychecks have, and so now a substantial percentage of the population is living in a state of constant financial stress.  The middle class has been collapsing all around us, and we are witnessing an extraordinary amount of economic suffering all over the country right now.”

Chuck again… I know that this all sounds like Armageddon, but the truth hurts…  I don’t like writing about this stuff, but it’s there, and needs to be discussed… I’m just saying…

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the May ISM (manufacturing index) and like I told it would do, it printed below 50 at 48.5… Still contracting, as the tariffs haven’t helped yet… 

Today’s Data Cupboard will have the April Factory Orders for our viewing… I suspect that this print will be negative as Durable Goods were, and the ISM was negative… 

To recap… The dollar and metals got sold BIG TIME yesterday, as the July rate cut scenario played out for the markets… Chuck warned us yesterday that the talk about the July rate cut would become daily stuff in the media and markets and it has already started! Chuck is very opinionated this morning, laying it on the line (Triumph)…

For What it’s Worth… i’ve talked about this scenario several times in the past, but as usual I find that people sometimes listen to someone else better… This is about the financing of the debt and it can be found here: Finance leaders fear destructive U.S. debt scenario

Or, here’s your snippet: “Hundreds of times a year, the U.S. Treasury auctions off debt securities — bills, bonds, and notes. This is how Uncle Sam borrows the billions needed to finance the government’s deficits.

The big picture: Top financial and business leaders, including some who served at high levels in President Trump’s first term, are increasingly worried that something could go awry.

The fear is that not enough buyers will show up one day, resulting in a damaging loss of confidence and a spike in all Americans’ borrowing costs.

If that were to happen, leaders warn, it could cause lasting damage by shifting the entire U.S. economy into a new, higher interest-rate equilibrium.

What they’re saying: “If you want an unpredictably wide swing in volatility, have a failed debt auction in the United States,” Gary Cohn, a former Trump White House adviser and president of Goldman Sachs, said in a Reagan National Economic Forum panel Friday at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California.

“We have the most robust debt market in the world until we don’t,” he said. “If there lacks interest from foreign investors, and there lacks interest from U.S. investors … rates will move out dramatically.”

Chuck again… Yes, this all works until it doesn’t, and then we as a country as up the creek without a paddle… 

Market Prices 6/3/2025: American Style: A$ 6453, kiwi .5992, C$ .7282, euro 1.1381, sterling 1.3504, Swiss $ 1.2149, European Style: rand 17.8792, krone 10.1313, SEK 9.5991, forint 354,74, zloty 3.7603, koruna 21.8701, RUB 79.99, yen 143.42, sing 1.2890, HKD 7.8445, INR 85.57, China 7.1883, peso 19.25, BRL 5.6916, BBDXY 1,213, Dollar Index 98.83, Oil $63.31, 10-year 4.43%, Silver $34.52, Platinum $1,066.00, Palladium $1,030, Copper $4.79, and Gold… $3,361

That’s it for today… I know, I’m late today with the letter… I overslept… good for me!  I totally missed that yesterday was Lou Gehrig day…  The Ironhorse of baseball died of ALS… My sister, Barbie doll, died of ALS… So, the day that they talk about Lou Gehrig, I think of my sister… The rain comes back tonight… and stays with us through Thursday… UGH! No sitting outside to read! I’m into reading the Cormoran Strike books now… These are 1,000-page books!  So, I can’t knock them out in a couple of days like I do other books… Paul Simon takes us to the finish line today with his song: You Can Call me Al….  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and will Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies & metals slug through the end of last week in a rut…
• But the breakout happened in the overnight markets last night!

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals came home from two 3-game road series with a record of 3-3… Play .500 on the road and .750 at home… That was the secret to the pennant in the old days before Wild Card teams… It was an absolute Chamber of Commerce weekend weather here in the MidWest… And it will carry over today, but tomorrow, rain will come back… UGH! The Rolling Stones greet me this morning with their song: Don’t You Hear Me Knocking?

We’ve seen a lot of give and take in both the currencies and metals in recent trading, and that pattern seems to be going to be with us for the near future… The dollar, which got sold on Thursday last week, turned around and got bought on Friday, with the BBDXY gaining 3 index points. The euro has climbed back above the 1.13 handle, and the rest of the currencies are bouncing back and forth aping what the euro does…  

Thursday’s Data Cupboard was quite a surprise… Personal Income and Spending was down in April, which was interesting, especially the Personal Spending, in a month that held the Easter holiday.  The other piece of data that was interesting was the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) The supposed favorite Inflation calc of the Fed Heads…  And it dropping was cause of the dollar getting sold on Thursday last week, because the markets thought that it gave the Fed Heads a green light toward cutting rates in July… 

Gold saw a $31 gain on Thursday and then a $29 loss on Friday…  Gold, to me seems to be moving sideways at the time… which normally in the days when I was on the trading desk, you went away in May and didn’t look or wild swings either way with Gold throughout the summer… But in recent years Gold has shrugged that old thought off, and rallied…  I don’t know what it’s going to take to get Gold back on the rally tracks stably…  Both Silver and Gold are in the neutral range in the RSI (relative strength Index) so, there’s no indication there of a move either way… 

The POTUS doesn’t seem to help the Gold bugs any, with his tariffs on/ tariffs off announcements… While I’m talking about all this back and forth, the dollar also seems to be in this pattern… So… maybe, just maybe, because you never know (Andujar) the old go away in May thought is coming back… ?

After slipping below the $62 handle on Thursday, the price of Oil bumped back over the figure, and finished the week trading with a $62 handle once again… The 10-year Treasury didn’t see much movement from the data prints late last week and finished the week trading with a 4.48% yield… ]

In the overnight markets last night…There was finally a breakthrough for the dollar and metals… The dollar is getting sold to start the day/ week, and the BBDXY is down 1 index point. But the point here is that the currencies are reacting like the dollar is getting sold down the river. The euro has climbed above the 1.14 handle, and the Swiss franc has climbed above 1.22. The Russian ruble is trading with a $78 handle this morning, and even the Japanese yen is rallying this morning…  So, kudos to the foreign currencies this morning, they seem to get it! 

Gold is up $62 to start the day/ week this morning, and Silver is up 52-cents… I think the thought about the Fed Heads cutting rates next month is finally taking hold of the markets’ sentiment…  I like what I’m seeing this morning, folks.. The breakout has finally taken place, and now we can get back to the currencies and metals rallying, while the dollar gets sold.  

The price of Oil, too, has bumped higher this morning and trades with a $63 handle. The 10-year Treasury bond is getting bought this morning and trades with a 4.43% yield… I think what’s going on here is that the bond boys finally think the Fed Heads just might cut rates in July…   

The markets are going to focus on this thought of a rate cut in July, and that’s what the news articles and videos are going to be all about until we get to the FOMC day in July…  BTW the July date isn’t until July 29, so we’ve got a long waiting period ahead of us, and a lot can happen before we get there… 

Things like the May Jobs Jamboree that will take place this Friday,…  Right now, the forecast for the Jobs created in May is just 125,000… But there’s no way the BLS will allow a low number like that to be printed… I’m just saying… 

I found this article headline on the DailyHodl.com “$413,200,000,000 in Unrealized Losses Hit US Banks As FDIC Warns Rising Rates Adding Pressure”

Chuck again… yes, and I’ve got something for you in the FWIW today that addresses these losses and what The U.S. could do to manage the debt and therefore the losses.. 

The Good Folks at GATA sent me this note: “On this week’s edition of Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program, London metals trader Andrew Maguire says the international shift from gold derivatives to physical gold is hastening, led by China and the BRICs countries.

The report, “Bullion Banking Explained,” was effectively an admission from inside the bullion banking industry that it was using the futures markets to create vast supplies of imaginary gold that suppressed the price of the monetary metal. CPM Group, Maguire says, has tried to conceal that report but it remains at GATA’s internet site. Maguire says the fraudulent regime of the bullion banking industry is coming to an end.”

Chuck again… now that’s music to my ears! That the fraudulent regime of the bullion banking industry is coming to an end! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard from last week has already been covered ahead… Today’s Data Cupboard has the ISM for May (manufacturing index), which has been below the contraction denominator of 50 for quite a few months now… One would think that if the POTUS’s plan works out that Manufacturing would rebound, but I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see, eh?  

To recap… The dollar and metals seems to be moving sideways these days… Up one day, down the next with no real direction for them to take… Chuck thinks that maybe we could be seeing the old adage of Go Away In May…  The Banks have HUMONGOUS Losses on their books from the rise of yields in bonds… If you recall that was the death knell of the banks last March… The problem was taken care of then, and it could be coming back to haunt us… 

For What It’s Worth… This article I found this weekend, and it talks about the U.S.’s debt and what they my be forced to do to manage it and it can be be found here: US Government May Be Forced To Impose Widespread ‘Financial Repression’ To Keep $36,000,000,000,000 Debt Burden Manageable: UBS – The Daily Hodlfo

Or, here’s your snippet: “The global wealth manager UBS says that the US government’s massive $36.2 trillion debt burden may cause it to take more extreme financial measures.

In a new report, UBS says that the US government may be forced to make its growing debt burden more manageable by turning to additional financial repression measures that would artificially lower the yield on government bonds.

“We expect that, over the longer term, the US government may pursue both fiscal consolidation and financial repression – a phenomenon that already exists in some form in the US and many other countries – to contain yields and keep the high debt burden manageable.”

One potential financial repression measure may be to reform the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) for US banks, according to UBS.

“Presently, large US banks must hold equity capital against all assets, including high-quality ones like Treasuries. Loosening the SLR could be justified as supporting bank lending, but excluding Treasuries from capital requirements would incentivize banks to hold more Treasuries, potentially enhancing market liquidity.”

UBS says the US is well-positioned to successfully implement financial repression measures, as long as they are put in place on a temporary basis.”

Chuck again… Well, let’s hope it’s not a “temporary Basis” like taking the dollar off the Gold Standard was in 1971…   

Market Prices 6/2/2025: American Style: A$ .6482, kiwi .6016, C$ .7297, euro 1.1416, sterling 1.3528, Swiss $1.2226, European Style: rand 17.9353, krone 10.0882, SEK 9.5082, forint 352.99, zloty 3.5292, koruna 21.8824, RUB 78.99, yen 142.98, sing 1.2883, HKD 7.8442, INR 85.35, China 7.1990, peso 19.27, BRL 5.6909, BBDXY 1,210, Dollar Index 99.36, Oil $63.44, 10-year 4.43%, Silver $33.49, Platinum $1,058.00, Palladium $1,006.00, Copper $4.87, and Gold… $3.359.10

That’s it for today… I forgot to welcome you to June… above… and Pfennig tradition calls for this:  June is busting out all over, all over the meadows and the hill, Buds ’re bustin’ outa bushes, And the rompin’ river pushes Every little wheel that wheels beside a mill.  A little Rodgers and Hammerstein to start your day! I was supposed to be appearing in the H.S rendition of Carousel… Had rehearsed, and was ready to perform when the teachers went on strike in 1973… So, no musical, no performance, we almost didn’t have a graduation! Oh well, I was never going to be the next Gordon MacRae anyway! Van Morrison takes us to the finish line today with his song: Into The Mystic…  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler