- the dollar continues to gain strength…
- Copper, Alice, is going to the moon!
Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! I’ve got some bad, not real bad, but bad news for you to start the week… I won’t be writing the rest of the week, due to doctor appts that I have that came to be last week… Tomorrow morning I see my heart doctor, then the primary care doctor on Wednesday morning, and then on Thursday, I go and have my prosthesis polished and re-fitted in the morning… So, no Pfennig after today, until next Monday… Sorry, but that’s how the cookie crumbles in my neck of the woods… I wish I didn’t have to go through all of this, but… It’s been decided that I suffer daily for the rest of my life, and there’s nothing I can do about it, so I just carry on, my wayward son (Kansas) … Donnie Iris greets me this morning with his song: Ah Leah!
Well, the dollar rebounded from its 3-day selling, albeit, small moves, on Thursday & Friday last week. So, as I suspected, it was just profit taking in the dollar that caused the blips in the middle of the wee. By Friday’s close the BBDXY had regained the points it lost earlier in the week and sat at 1,264, about the same level it stood at on Monday last week. The currencies really didn’t gain any traction while the dollar was seeing profit taking, last week, and therefore they start this week remaining in their sick beds… The talk in the markets has changed, from we’re “in the money”, and the Fed Heads are going to cut rates, to “it doesn’t look like the Fed heads will cut rates”… The new mantra has really pushed the dollar higher, well, in my humble country boy opinion, this is all fine and dandy, with those taking dollar positions, because as the year goes on, it will become quite aware to these folks that they made a mistake… I’m just saying
Gold & Silver had good days to finish last week… Gold was up $18 on Thursday and $13 on Friday, to end the week trading at $2,391.20.. Gold actually traded above $2,400 on Friday for a brief time, before the short paper traders showed up… Silver was up just 3-cents on Thursday, but on Friday it was up 46-cents, and finished the week at $28.64… Silver is up more than 8% so far this month… Did you hear that Lola aka Goldman Sachs revised their outlook on Gold? Previously they said that they saw Gold going to $2,300 this year but wait! that already happened, so Lola revised their outlook to $2,700… They must have a ton of Gold in inventory that needs to be sold, eh? hehehehehe…
And the price of Oil gained a buck late last week and ended the week trading with an $83 handle. While the mystery buyer of the 10-year last week wasn’t revealed, they / him/ whatever/ went away, and bond yields resumed their assent to higher ground, with the 10-year finishing the week with a 4.64% yield…
In the overnight markets last night… Well, when I went to bed last night, I checked the overnight markets, and the dollar was getting sold…
But this morning when I checked the BBDXY is was back to positive, and starts the day/ week at 1,265… The currencies are getting taken to the woodshed on a daily basis, and I’m hoping that you took my warning a few weeks ago, when I said it “was time to batten down the hatches”… The Good Witch, Glinda, has appeared yet to tell us it’s safe, but you can be assured that I will be the first to tell you when she comes floating in on her bubble…
Ok, what in tar nation is going on with the metals this morning? Gold is down $49 to start the day/ week, and Silver down $1.19! Well, the short paper traders are having a field day today, so just ignore this trading and go out and mow the lawn, or play golf, or do something that doesn’t involve watching the short paper trades and their engineered takedown again…
The price of Oil starts the week with an $83 handle, and the 10-year’s yield starts the week at 4.66%
Ok, the good folks at GATA sent me this over the weekend.. I’ll let them tell the story: “London monetary metals trader Andrew Maguire, speaking with the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke on Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program this week, says the conversion of Comex “paper gold” into physical gold is causing so much offtake of real metal that the U.S. Federal Reserve soon will be forced to stop using “paper gold” sales for price suppression.”
Chuck again… The article goes on to describe why Maguire thinks this suppression will end soon, and his reasons are all logical and to me that’s important! I’m just saying…
I have something very interesting from someone I admire, in the FWIW section today, so keep your attention here, and don’t drift, because this is important, regarding Gold…
And then in Ed Steer’s Saturday letter (www.edsteergoldsilver.com) he had a quote from Ted Butler (no relation that I know of) the Silver Guru, that I think my former colleague, Aaron Stevenson, will get a kick from, Here it is:
“the open losses to Bank of America on its 25 million oz. gold and [one] billion oz. silver OTC short position have grown to more than $20 billion ($15 billion in gold and $5 billion in silver).”.
For the moment these are paper gains/losses on the COMEX –
Chuck again.. Ok, they are just paper losses, but… what happens if they can’t find the Gold or Silver to cover those shorts? they would have to close out the short positions with those losses, that’s what! And I, for one, would certainly like to see that come to a head… Wouldn’t you?
Ok, last week I told you about a Copper mine in Panama that was sitting idle, while the supply of Copper dwindles… This morning, I checked the Copper price and lo and behold it has really been the shining light for the metals. Bloomberg.com this morning, has an article about how the supplies of Copper are a real problem, and that the price is going to skyrocket… I questioned this at first, saying “skyrocket from here, where is has already skyrocketed”? But then I just let it go, because it’s not worth it…
Ok, I get it, Gold & Silver are dominating the letter again this morning… The problem with the currencies, is trying to find something that’s positive for them right now… The countries that raised their interest rates to fight inflation, have already use all the arrows in their respective quivers, and now it’s up to what happens with the dollar to determine if the currencies have rebound…
The one shining light in the currencies for months now has been the Mexican peso… But recent volatility has scared some investors away from the peso… I found this on Bloomberg.com about the peso “Banxico, as the institution is often called, does not have an objective for the currency, but has kept an eye on the geopolitical factors that led to its swings, Governor Victoria Rodriguez said in an interview Saturday. Analysts are waiting to see the tone officials will strike in their May 9 decision, and whether they will choose to hold borrowing costs at the current level.”
So… just like here in the U.S. the peso will be held with its feet to the fire, of their Central Bank meeting… Will they keep rates unchanged, or cut them… Same game, same results… I’m just saying…
And don’t look now, but sterling has really fallen out of bed… All the talk in the U.K of a coming rate cut has finally taken its toll on the sterling… I hope the Fed Heads are paying attention here..
The U.S. Data Cupboard is empty today, and for the most part it will remain that way for the first part of the week with all the heavy-duty data prints, like 1st QTR GDP, Personal Spending and Income, coming at the end of the week…
Late last week, we saw the Leading Indicators for March, and while most of the world was thinking that they would be positive, they like, I said they would be, were negative once again at .3%…
To recap… The dollar rebounded from its mid-week selling that proved to be nothing more than tempest in a teacup, of profit selling… Gold & Silver had good end of the week performances, and Chuck has some interesting quotes on Gold and Silver suppression, along with a change of mind from Lola…
For What It’s Worth… Well, I’ve never met Dennis Gartman, but I’ve traded emails with him through the years.. Dennis is someone that used to be like the E.F Hutton commercial… When Dennis speaks, people listen… And so it was when I saw his interview with Kitco the other day… Here’s the Great Dennis Gartman talking with Kitco.com about Gold… and you can find it here: Buckle up because the gold price is going to $3000, says Dennis Gartman | Kitco News
Or, here’s your snippet: “In an exclusive interview with Kitco News, famed commodity investor Dennis Gartman said that gold did suffer some near-term technical damage last week as the market sold off sharply after hitting a record high above $2,448 an ounce; however, he added that the precious metal has embarked on a multi-year bull market.
“Gold goes a lot farther from here. I look for gold to hit $3,000 an ounce in the next couple of years,” he said.
Gartman said he is bullish on gold because of the breadth of its record run. While investors pay attention to gold in U.S. dollar terms, Gartman pointed out that it is making record highs against the Swiss franc, the euro, the British pound, the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar, and the Chinese yuan, just to name a few.
“This is more than just a weakness in the U.S. dollar. The real trade is gold against the yen and euro as the U.S. dollar strengthens against these currencies,” he said.”
Chuck again… And again, I cannot emphasize enough how important it is to listen to Dennis Gartman!
Market Prices 4/22/ 2024: American Style: A$.6437, kiwi .5907, C$ .7289, euro 1.0639, sterling 1.2312, Swiss $1.0968, European Style: rand 19.1046, krone 11.0162, SEK 10.9072, forint 370.75, zloty 4.0600, koruna 23.7535, RUB 93.36, yen 154.77, sing 1.3638, HKD 7.8366, INR 83.36, China 7.2435, peso 17.09, BRL 5.2017, BBDXY 1,265.17, Dollar Index 106.25, Oil $83.06, 10-year 4.66%, Silver $27.50, Platinum $923.00, Palladium $1,010.00, Copper 4.52, and Gold… $2,342.82
That’s it for today… And ugly weekend for my beloved Cardinals as they were swept by the Brew Crew… They received an excellent start by their pitcher, but again, couldn’t find their bats… UGH! Well, it’s Earth Day here on earth… I remember the original Earth Days back in the early 70’s… Forest Park would be filled with hippies flying kites and listening to a rock band play… I think things have changed since then… You think? HA! Well, I’ll be busy this week and drive my car more than I have in 4 months! I love to drive… And I love to drive through the state of Missouri, we have such beautiful rolling hlls, and landscape in the state! It was downright chilly here this weekend, with the temps getting down to near freezing! So… I’ve had it with this chilly weather and this Saturday, I’m heading back to S. Florida! Maybe when I return the weather will be warmer and consistent! Ok… I won’t be writing again until next Monday, and then it will be from S. Florida! I hope you have a Marvelous Mondy today, and the rest of your week is grand… The Doobie Bros. take us to the finish line today with their song: Another Park, Another Sunday… That’s all I have for you, talk to you again next week!
Chuck Butler