- metals and currencies see selling as the questions keep coming about the war…
- Good bye Tariffs’ funds….
Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! So, last Thursday I said that I was in need of a break, and then on Friday morning, I woke up at 5:30 am and said, ” so much for sleeping in!” I guess it was my body telling me I had slept too long… UGH! Or it could have been the noise above on the first floor… Anyway, I made up for it on Saturday and Sunday… Yesterday’s trip to the PCP was a non-event… I like the doctor but, I don’t see his value in my health program… REO Speedwagon greets me this morning with their song: Golden Country
Well, the markets closed on Friday afternoon, with the dollar still drifting between 1,192 and 1,193… The dollar traders aren’t getting caught up in the rhetoric coming from the White House about the war being over soon… But, they aren’t so sure about selling the dollar more because when they have, the PPT jumps in and defends the dollar to keep if from falling off the cliff… Thus doing “Cliff Maintenance”…
Gold & Silver pushed aside the STP’s for a day, and both climbed above their most recent roadblocks of $4.800 for Gold, and 80-cents for Silver… Gold closed the week at $4,831 and Silver closed the week at 80.95-cents… Good for them, finally moving past those roadblocks that the SPTs had set up for them.
The Oil traders are really believing everything they’re hearing out of D.C. And the thought that Israel and Hezbollah had agreed to a truce of 10 days, and that the Strait of Hormuz if open again, and have pushed down the price of Oil to end the week at $83.85…. I’m from Missouri, and I’ll have to be shown that these market moving events are going to hold…
And with the price of Oil, I just don’t get what’s going on here with the “delivered price” and the paper Oil price that’s published…. I read a report that said that Singapore and Sri Lanka just paid over $200 per barrel of Oil, but the paper price of Oil is $83… Is this “fixing of the Oil price” for the stock jockeys? I have thoughts on this, but I’ll move on for now…
To add to this discussion, my friend, Dave Gonigam of The 5 Bullets newsletter had this yesterday : ” Take it from someone much closer to the situation — Saudi Arabian finance minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan.
In a remark completely overlooked by corporate media, Al-Jadaan spoke up during a conference late last week: “You see the screen, $90 a barrel — good luck if you get an oil barrel for $90. It’s $120, $130, $140, $150, $160 even through the last few weeks.”
And those are just “normal” purchases of physical barrels in Europe and Asia. There are extremes like $286 a barrel in Sri Lanka — the island nation off the coast of India.
How long can this disconnect go on?”
Chuck again… See? I don’t make this stuff up…. I’m just saying….
And the 10-year Treasury also saw the same kind of reaction as the Oil traders, and saw it’s yield drop 5 BPS to end the week at 4.25%
In the markets yesterday…. there was little to cheer about… The Peace negotiations didn’t get off the ground (and neither did VP Vance) The dollar remained in the its tight range, Oil recovered a bit from all the euphoria that was going on last week, and Gold fought for every inch of ground it could, while Silver was brought back to below 80-cents…
Gold closed at $4,821, down $10 from Friday, and Silver closed at $79.86, down $1.39 from Friday’s close…
In the overnight markets last night… The night had a couple of developments with the Peace Negotiations, not to drag them out now, but this is heading the wrong way, in my humble opinion.. With that Uncertainty in the markets, the dollar got bought a bit, with the BBDXY still in the range but up 2 index points to 1,193… Gold & Silver are getting sold to start our day today, Gold is down $31, and Silver is down 51-cents right now…
The price of Oil continues its recovery and starts today trading at $89… The paper price that is…. The deliverable price is much higher as I explained above… And the 10-year Treasury seems to be stuck in the mud with a 4.25% yield….
I have to end this early this morning, because the oncologist called yesterday, and is sending me for blood work this morning… No alarms here, she just wants to see if what they have done for my anemia is working… (I told her it was, but she needs actual confirmation of that!)
My visit for my annual wellness (that term is used loosely in my case) visit, went well, He said when concluded, “on paper you are a real medical mess, but as I see you here, you present a different story” I told him that “It’s my optimism for life, family, friends, and I won’t forget my dear readers”…
The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week had the usual Thursday fare of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and they had fallen to a 207,000 number the lowest it’s been in a time… I would say that there’s a new way Businesses are going with hiring these days… It’s called The no hire, no fire’ economy … I’m just saying…
My economic calendar showed that Industrial Production gained .5% in March, but Capacity Utilization dropped from 76.1 to 75.7% So, businesses were leery of new equipment and expansion while there was a war going on… In other news it was reported that the White House had requested large companies, like Ford, and GM to help manufacturing arms, and the U.S.’s supply had been greatly depleted in the initial onslaught of Iran….
To me that sounds like the White House is saying one thing to the public about how the war will end soon, and on the other hand they are preparing for more bombing… I’m just saying…
To recap… The dollar is drifting back and forth between 1,191 and 1,194 these days, as traders don’t want to take a stand on which direction they want to go… I don’t blame them right now, as who knows what’s going to happen next with this war….
Well, I don’t know if you read my good friend, Dennis Miller’s weekly letter, but in it, he interviews me about Treasury issuance… So, if you have this next piece I found on MarketWatch.com will play well with his letter in the sand box. Here’s MarketWatch.com “Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on Thursday urged U.S. policymakers to prepare an emergency plan in case demand for Treasurys breaks down — warning that a crisis in the government bond market could trigger severe consequences across the economy.
“We need an emergency break-the-glass plan which is targeted and short term on the shelf, so it’s ready to go when we hit the wall,” Paulson said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Wall Street Week on Thursday.
Paulson’s warning comes as investors grow increasingly concerned about the waning appeal of U.S. Treasury debt. Persistent deficits, heavy debt issuance and inflation worries have weighed on longer-term government bonds recently.”
Chuck Again… Yes, Treasury issuance is become quite the controversial subject in the world… Because yields are so low, issuance is too large, and there’s no end in sight for our debt creation….
For What it’s Worth… I might have rushed the gun with my statement about the Beige Book last week, and this article from MarketWatch tells the real story of what the Beige Book had to tell us and can be found here: U.S. businesses hit the brakes on hiring and spending as Iran war dims optimism over economy, Fed report finds – MarketWatch
Or, here’s your snippet: “U.S. businesses are pulling back from making major decisions due to uncertainty stemming from the war with Iran, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest report on regional economies, known as the “beige book.”
“The conflict in the Middle East was cited as a major source of uncertainty that complicated decision-making around hiring, pricing, and capital investment, with many firms adopting a wait-and-see posture,” the report said.
The Fed also found that economic activity had deteriorated, describing it as “modest.” The previous report, which covered the month of February, described economic activity as “moderate.”
Regarding business expectations, the nascent optimism found by the previous report was downgraded to “varied amid widespread uncertainty.”
The latest survey, which covers conditions through the first week of April, was carried out to help Fed officials gain an understanding of local conditions ahead of their meeting at the end of the month to set interest rates.
Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said there was a “stagflation-like tone” to the report, referring to a scenario of rising inflation along with slowing growth.
“The conflict is making businesses more cautious. If this uncertainty persists, delayed investment and hiring will translate into a larger drag on growth,” said Marco Casiraghi, senior economist at Evercore ISI.”
Chuck Again… Well, the POTUS said last weekend that the “war could end soon”… And once again the markets swallowed the news hook, line and sinker… We’ll see in a week or two if this was warranted
And before I head to the Big Finish, I wanted to mention that my fears of a rebate of tariffs taken is going to take place… here’s the BBC with the skinny: “The Trump administration has begun processing refunds for billions of dollars in tariffs that the US Supreme Court struck down in February.
In what is to be the biggest repayment programme in history, companies can apply online for money they were charged under the so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs – plus interest – to be returned.
The US Court of International Trade in March ordered customs officials to refund the more than $160bn (£121bn) the government had collected, putting roughly 330,000 importers in a position to potentially win back some money.
(But some individual consumers, who were hit by the tariffs indirectly through higher prices, are not expected to be compensated.)”
Market Prices 4/21/2026: American Style: A$ .7163, kiwi .5910, C$ .7322, euro 1.1766, sterling 1.3517, Swiss $1.2830, European Style: rand 16.3701, krone 9.3173, SEK 9.1356, forint 307.80, zloty 3.5958, koruna 20.6473, RUB 74.94, yen 159.12, sing 1.2715, HKD 7.8307, INR 93.19, China 6.8161, peso 17.31, BRL 4.9658, BBDXY 1,193, Dollar Index 98.21, Oil $89.29, 10-year 4.25%, Silver $79.34, Platinum $2,093.00, Palladium $1,583.00, Copper $6.11, and Gold… $4,751
That’s it for today… Yesterday while I was at the PCP’s office, I remembered it was my good friend, and former Big Boss, Frank Trotter’s Birthday! After a month of being the same age as Frank, he’s moved ahead once again! Happy Birthday, Frank! I’ve taken to retirement differently than Frank did… Frank, as you know, started EverBank, and now has started Battle Bank… He’s a go-getter for sure! I spend my days sitting outside reading when I’m not going to a doctor! My beloved Cardinals’ 5-games win streak came to an end last night in Miami… UGH!
Our Blues ended their regular season on Thursday last week, and didn’t make the playoffs once again… UGH! Dionne Warwick takes us to the finish line today (I love her voice) with her song: Walk On By… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler