- currencies rally but metals see selling on Wednesday
- Chuck gets on his Soapbox… You are Warned!
Good Day… And a Tum Thumpin’ Thursday to you! Another nice late game victory for my beloved Cardinals yesterday… Yes, it was a day game at Busch, but I’m still in no condition to get caught up with crowds… So, I skipped it and watched it on tv… It was a rainy day off and on yesterday, so I couldn’t go outside and read, UGH! You now, or maybe you don’t, but after years of taking chemo, my skin is as thin as Twiggy… And on Tuesday, I tripped in the kitchen and proceeded to tear the skin off my arm in two large places… OUCH! So, the wrap the nurse put on it is quite the contraption… The Doors greet me this morning with their song: L.A. Woman… I remember a night in Boca Raton years ago at the Garage and the band played this song for 20 minutes!
Well, the dollar’s brief bout of buying in the overnight markets on Tuesday night, was wiped out yesterday, as the dollar got sold in the U.S. session, and the BBDXY ended the day at 1,292
I said yesterday that Kitco.com’s description of the Gold loss in the early trading was that it was “profit taking” And I said, I didn’t believe that one iota… Gold ended down $50 on the day, and that to me doesn’t appear to be “profit taking”… Instead it appears that the SPTs were busy taking Gold below the $4,800 figure… Gold closed the day at $4,791.50
Silver found a way to gain 12-cents on the day and ended the day at $79.71. The day went two different directions yesterday, but don’t worry, be happy (Marley) Gold will pick up the pieces today for sure! Well, don’t bet the farm on that, it’s just my opinion, and I could be wrong!
The price of Oil dipped another buck yesterday and ended the day at $91.44… The 10-year Treasury added another bp to end the day at 4.28%…
In the overnight markets… Just as Tuesday night, last night the dollar saw a bit of buying, and the BBXY Gained 1 index point… No big deal! I don’t get what the overnight guys are thinking, but then it could just be the PPT doing some cliff maintenance! Hey, I just made up that term “Cliff Maintenance”… I’ll be able to use that a lot! Down at my Winter Home on the beach, we have a day every winter called “Beach Maintenance”… I used to participate but walking on the beach is very strenuous for me, so Kathy participates!
Gold saw some buying overnight and in the early trading today, as it climbed back over $4,800 to $4,853, up $62… And Silver is up a measly 19-cents… But Silver nears $.80-cents this morning again… these are levels ($4,800 and 80-cents) that keep getting taken out and then brought back down by the SOTs, until they grow tired of this game, and that’s when we’ll see the SPTs go away and to come back another day… I’m just saying…
The price of Oil remained trading with a $91 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury, too remained steady Eddie trading with a 4.28% yield…
Well, it’s time for me to step up on my soapbox… So, if you don’t want to hear me opine, then I suggest you skip ahead… But for those of you who want to sick around… I’ve been thinking about when we went over $39 Trillion in national current debt. It had only been 3.5 months since we toppled $38 Trillion… So, we as a country, are taking on debt faster and faster as it grows… Yes, the war should help with the dollar debt, as it will invite inflation into the picture and the Gov’t needs inflation to lessen our debt… What was now $ 5 is now $20 and you see where this is going…
Speaking of the war, that was none of our business to start with, the costs of the war are doing two things… 1. It makes inflation a run-away bus, and 2. It gets the average American’s minds off the goings on in D.C and the awful data that’s getting printed nearly daily… So, where are we now with the war that we were told a month ago that was “nearly complete”? And the markets all fell in line with the Gov’t when those words were spoken, and now that it didn’t come to fruition, they are falling in line with his words again about a Peace Accord…. When will we ever learn, when will, we, ever, learn… (wood) and sung by Pete Seeger….
OK, I’m back now, to the regular programming… Ok, did you hear what former Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chairperson, Janet Yellen, said about the rate cuts that the POTUS wants? She said that “his push to cut interest rates has echoes of “Banana Republic”… The POTUS recently said, “We should be paying the lowest interest rate of any country in the World”… Yellen based her thought about a Banana Republic on the fact that inflation is high, and we don’t know how high it will go with the Iran War going on, and so (cut rates) is something that a Banana Republic would do….
Isn’t Yellen calling out the POTUS something like the kettle calling the pot black? I shake my head at how the former Fed Heads think they were the gift of God to the economy, when they played along with this debacle just as much?
The euro was back above the 1.18 figure when I checked the currencies before I retired for the night… This is a mirror reflection of the performance of the dollar, as the euro is the offset currency to the dollar… But there are some other currencies that are on the rally horse, like the Brazilian real… The real is going through a harried election right now, but the is still gaining mostly on the back of the price of Oil… and their higher interest rate is 14.50%! The Euro Wannabes are moving nicely too, with the forint around 309zloty at 3.60 and koruna 20.45… if these three are moving against the dollar, then the dollar is getting well-entrenched in the weak dollar trend…
I spent a lot of time yesterday on the big-time dive of the Consumer Sentiment report… and last night I came across a report that said Americans placed the sentiment so low was That Americans blame the Iran war for worsening economy… see what I was talking about above, as how the war gets Americans minds on something else besides the awful data prints and the direction of the economy?
The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the Fed’s Beige book… as you know this book is comprised of each Fed District’s viewpoint on the economy in their region… The summary of each report said that: “Economic activity in the Seventh District increased slightly over the reporting period. Manufacturing demand rose modestly; consumer spending increased slightly; construction and real estate activity, employment and business spending were flat on balance; and nonbusiness contacts saw no change in economic activity. Prices rose moderately, wages rose modestly, and financial conditions tightened modestly. Farm income expectations for 2026 declined some.”
Chuck again… lies, and more lies… So, have we seen the economy improve this month? Not from the data prints, we haven’t… So, what are these folks seeing?
To recap… The Kitco.com version of yesterday’s selling of Gold $50 was “profit taking”… Chuck says balderdash! This was the SPTs way to put Gold back below the $4,800 level… The dollar’s brief rally at yesterday morning was reversed and the dollar lost 2 index points on Wednesday… Chuck Opines this morning, if you skipped ahead, you’ll be sooooorrrrryyyyy!
For What It’s Worth… I found this on Zerohedge.com this morning, and it’s about how the IMF is warning the Treasury about their debt issues (Treasury issuance) and it can be found here: IMF Warns US Treasury Market Prone To “Sudden Repricing” Due To Soaring Debt, Overreliance On Bills | ZeroHedge
Or, here’s your snippet: “The International Monetary Fund warned Wednesday that the relentless US debt issuance is undermining the premium Treasuries have commanded from investors, with implications for government securities across the globe.
“The increase in the US Treasury security supply is compressing the safety premium that US Treasuries have traditionally commanded — an erosion that pushes up borrowing costs globally,” the Washington-based IMF said in its latest Fiscal Monitor report.
The US has been selling large volumes of debt because its budget deficit has averaged roughly 6% of gross domestic product over the past three years, an unprecedented shortfall outside of wartime or recession eras. The gap is expected to stay around those levels throughout the coming decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office. In reality, it will only get wider.
As Bloomberg reports, the IMF pointed to a narrowing gap between the yields of AAA rated corporate bonds and Treasuries as a sign of reduced appeal for US government securities. While spreads have typically been viewed as a gauge of the risk investors estimate for corporate borrowers, the fund is flipping that analysis on its head to view it as a metric of how much extra buyers are willing to pay for Treasuries.
“A narrowing spread implies that the premium investors pay for the safety and liquidity of Treasuries (relative to high-grade corporate debt) is compressing,” the IMF said. The fund showed that AAA corporate spreads have shrunk to roughly 35 basis points from more than 55 basis points at the start of 2019.
Chuck again… Just another way of looking at how the Treasury is going to find a tough row to hoe in the coming months with debt issuance… It’s coming to a head folks… are you ready?
Market Prices 4/16/2026: American Style: A$ .7167, kiwi .5989, C$ .7282, euro 1.1778, sterling 1.3541, Swiss $1.2761, European Style: rand 16.4004, krone 9.3850, SEK 9.1781, forint 309.50, zloty 3.6008, koruna 20.6760, RUB 76.20, yen 159.07, sing 1.2722, HKD 7.8247, INR 93.18, China 6.8223, peso 17.27, BRL $4.9927, BBDXY 1,193, Dollar Index 98.21, Oil $91.41, 10-year 4.28%, Silver $79.30, Platinum $2,141.00, Palladium $1,602, Copper $6.13, and Gold… $4,853
That’s it for today and this week… I need a break, so Friday won’t get here fast enough… No Pfennig on Monday folks… I have to see my doctor on Monday morning… UGH! The Cardinals head to Houston now, and then onto Miami (but I don’t want to go to Miami! HA!) I just don’t sleep like I used to, and it’s all tied to our family problem we have going on… Who’da thunk that our family would have problems? Marty Balin takes us to the finish line with his solo work song: Hearts… Marty Balin was the lead singer in the Jefferson Starship… I really enjoy his work… I hope you have a Tub Tumpin’ Thursday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler