- currencies & metals rally in the overnight markets…
- No rate cut coming, what’s a dollar bug to do?
Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you… Well, it was a chilly, rainy weekend here in the Midwest… Lots of rain on Saturday, left the rivers and creeks swollen once again. The rivers and creeks had just gone back down to within their respective banks… April will go on record, here that is, for most precipitation received in our recorded history… And May won’t be far behind if this weather pattern keeps up! After losing 9 consecutive games to the pond scum, I mean the Mets, my beloved Cardinals finally beat them, not without nerves being tested, yesterday… In fact, they swept the doubleheader! Paul Simon greets me this morning with his song: Call Me Al…
Well, going into last weekend, Gold had just experienced one of its worst weeks in a month of Sundays… Gold did eke out a 30-cent gain on Friday, but that hardly wrapped a tourniquet around Gold’s bleeding… There were many explanations out on the newswires last week about what was going on with Gold, Shoot Rudy, even a tech guy tried to explain it using a Technical pattern… I sill believe that it was a case of a little selling begot more selling, and that begot even more selling… The sheeple played into the hands and dirty deeds of the short paper traders… That’s my story and I’m sticking to it! Just like when I tell people that my first wife was a young Elizabeth Taylor! Yep, that’s it!
The dollar was on the rally tracks for most of the week, and then it wasn’t… On Friday, as I suggested last week that the data would end the dollar’s rally, the economic data just kept printing, and weighing on the dollar, which was the BBDXY lose over 5 index points, and finish the week at 1,224… The euro, which had fallen below the 1.13 figure, rallied to close above the figure again on Friday, and the rest of the currencies all followed the BIG Dog euro…
So, like I said above, Gold ended the week up 30-cents, and held a closing price of $3,241… Silver was also taken to the woodshed last week, and ended the week barely holding the 32-cents figure, closing at $32.06, down 43-cents on the day…
The price of Oil closed the week on Friday trading with a $58 handle… Oil has fallen along side with Gold and makes one think that risk assets are persona no gratis right now… And the buying in the 10-year Treasury had been really doing a number on the 10-year’s yield, that is until late last week, (the bad data again) and the 10-year closed the week at 4.31%…
In the overnight markets last night…The dollar continued to be sold, with the BBDXY at a 4 index point loss as we start our day today… For once in a blue moon, the dollar bugs looked at the economic data that printed last week and then looked ahead to this week and the Fed Heads leaving rates unchanged, and the decided to not buy dollars.. Now, you would think, I know I did at first, that a strong, albeit trumped up jobs report and a no rate cut outlook would help the dollar, but after a month of speculation that the next move from the Fed Heads would be a rate cut, the expectations were blown out of the water, and that has the dollar bugs very upset, that they were wrong, and so the dollar suffers…
I read a headline article this morning that said, “Wall Street remains bearish on Gold this week”… Well, if that’s true, Gold is showing a strange way to be bearish, as the shiny metal is up $96=cents to start our day/ week this morning… Yes, that’s right… 96-cents… Silver is up 43-cents to start the day/ week this morning. So, to me what this look like? OK, in a previous Pfennig For Your Thoughts I explained the short paper traders M.O. that they short the heck out of the Gold & Silver until they think they have done so enough, and then they turnaround and buy the metals at the much cheaper prices, and profit again when they decide that they’ve made enough profit for this go-around, and they sell short again… Ed Sterer calls this the “Wash, Rinse cycle”…
The price of Oil bumped higher overnight, and trades this morning with a $57 handle… I read this morning, that our friends (NOT!) at OPEC have amassed a glut of Oil and are going to swamp the markets with it… For whatever that’s worth… And the 10-uear Treasury picked up a BIP overnight and starts our day/ week trading with a 4.31% yield.
The Eurozone received a nice surprise in their economic data late last week, when their 1st QTR GDP surprised with a upbeat print of .4% (The Eurozone was pretty much thought of as nearing 0% growth)… I recently wrote a piece for my good friend, Dennis Miller, in www.milleronthemoney.com and in it I looked at the Eurozone as finally coming to grips with the direction of their economy, and this is what I wrote: ” I see realignment; giving more power to the people, recognizing the ethnic votes and individual country culture. By doing so, the EU should return to what they were formed for, peace, prosperity, and freedom to easily move about the countries of the EU. Economic growth helps return Germany to the powerhouse manufacturer it once was…
Rose colored glasses? Perhaps, but it’s what I see!” – Chuck Butler in www.milleronthemoney.com
OK… Back to the U.S. Well, the POTUS did what I thought he was going to do last Friday… Here’s the skinny: ” President Trump signed an executive order on April 24, 2025, titled “Unleashing America’s Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources”. This order aims to promote the development of offshore critical minerals in the oceans adjacent to the U.S., as well as foster collaboration with allies for deep-sea mineral resource development in foreign waters.”
Remember I told you that it is expected that $150 Trillion worth of minerals, commodities, and Oil is underground (or at sea) and that getting a hold of these would make the U.S the richest country in the world, it would pay off our national debt all $37 Trillion worth of it, and have some left to start a Sovereign Wealth Fund… Now, this won’t happen overnight, and won’t happen next month, but within a year we, as a country should begin to see some changes…
Of course, all things usually don’t work out as planned… They either fall short of expectations, or they don’t materialize at all…
This is a BIG DEAL folks ! Mark my words on this… And in a couple of years, get back with me and tell me how wrong I was… Hey! I didn’t make this stuff up, folks… In other words, Don’t Shoot The Mesenger! Either this pans out for our country’s best, or it doesn’t…
The FOMC meets this week, on Wednesday, to discuss rates… And after last week’s data showing that new jobs created were much better than expected in April, I don’t see the FOMC cutting rates at this meeting or for any of the next couple for that matter… The FOMC’s decision to skip a rate cut, isn’t going to set well with the POTUS, and the Fed Heads Chairman, Powell, will be back in the Presidential dog house again but there’s nothing the POTUS can do about it, and he has to wait until Feb when Powell’s term ends…
Speaking of the Jobs report, i shake my head in disgust one again at the BLS’s adding of jobs out of thin air… Even when it has been discovered and acknowledged that the jobs creation numbers for the U.S. have been grossly overstated going back years… The BLS continues to add jobs to the surveys… For this month’s jobs print, the BLS added 383,000 jobs! Now, given what we now know about revisions, you can expect that a majority of those 383,000 jobs created by the BLS will be reversed in parcels, so that it’s not so obvious what’s going on … But… The markets don’t see this like I do… And so, that will lead the FOMC to not cut rates this week, and get everyone all lathered up about how strong the economy is… When in actuality the economy is not strong…
The U.S. Data Cupboard will be taking on the look of strong data reports in the coming weeks… And that’s only because U.S. companies are taking on tons of goods and deliveries now to avoid future tariffs, and robbing from the future… So, Inventories will be spewing goods that aren’t being sold… Let’s see how that all works out for the Companies, eh? I see this as causing tears… But then that’s just me… I’m just saying…
The U.S. Data Cupboard this week doesn’t have anything market moving for us today, and tomorrow we get that final Trade Deficit print that I talked about last week… And then on Wednesday we’ll have the Jobs Jamboree, and then that’s about it for data this week…
To recap… The dollar got sold going into the weekend, and Gold finally stopped getting sold, gaining just 30-cetns on Friday… The Eurozone received a surprise 1st QTR GDP last week… And Chuck brings back something he said last month in an interview with Dennis Miller… The POTUS did open vast areas of land and sea to exploration of minerals, commodities and Oil… Chuck thinks that IF, IF, IF everything works out, the way they are planned it could be good for the U.S. We’ll see…
There’s no For What It’s Worth article today… I searched and searched and couldn’t find anything that was FWIW worthy… So, come back tomorrow, I’m sure there will be something FWIW worthy today, it just kind of feels like some dolt will say something today! Same bat time, same bat channel, tomorrow, without commercials too!
Market Prices 5/5/2025: American Style: A$ .6488, kiwi .5980, C$ .7246, euro 1.1342, sterling 1.3301, Swiss $1.2146, European Style: rand 18.3107, krone 10.3720, SEK 9.6316, forint 356.04, zloty 3.7710, koruna 21.7557, RUB 80.70, yen 143.47, sing 1.2633, HKD 7.7500, INR 84.26, China 7.2713, peso 19.58, BRL 5.6571, BBDXY 1,220, Dollar Index 96.63, Oil $57.42, 10-year 4.31%, Silver $32.55, Platinum $972.00, Palladium $988.00, Copper $4.72, and Gold… $3,318.70
That’s it for today… I’m here all week.. Try the veal! buy next week I’ll be out on Monday & Tuesday. Monday, I see my new pulmonary doctor, and Tuesday it’s time for new scans. My breathing recovered a bit over the weekend, so that’s a good thing… But I’m still wondering what caused that relapse? It was GAME 7 last night for the Blues and Jets, and after leading by 2 goals with 2 minutes to play, the Blues blew the lead, and in the 2nd overtime, they lost the game and series… Tim to pack up the golf clubs now boys… I watched in horror as the Blues forgot how to defend the goal… Oh, well, our Blues came from near last place to make the playoffs, and then take the best team (points wise this year) to a Game 7… A pretty good turnaround, I’d say! but no Stanley Cup this year, there’s always next year, right? So, it’s all about baseball now… C’mon Cardinals get more consistent… The band, Rooper takes us to the finish line today with their song: Round, Round We Go… Don’t know that one? YOUTUBE it, I think you’ll like it… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today and will continue to Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler . .