Author: admin

• Currencies & metals get sold last Friday…
• Chuck is full of gloom & doom this morning…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, if all things work out for me this week, this will be my last week before going on my Irish sojourn, which will last two weeks… There will be no Pfennigs on that day, so if you feel like you need a shot of Pfennig, simply go to www,dailypfennig.com and read an archived letter! Chicago greets me this morning with their great song: Does Anybody Know What Time It Is?

That dastardly, no good, rotten to bone, short paper traders were working overtime late last week…  First of all on Thursday last week, Gold gained over $31, and Silver gained over 96-cents… The problem with that day was that these closing prices for Gold & Silver were way below their respective intraday highs… The short paper traders cut short their gains on the day… 

And not being completely satisfied with their work on Thursday, the short paper traders never allowed Gold & Silver to even start to follow through on their Thursday gains… Yet, another engineered takedown was in place on Friday, and Gold lost $39, and Silver lost $1.23… The two metals gave back what they had gained on Thursday, and then some… 

The Dollar gained some momentum late last week, especially after the Swiss National Bank announced another rate cut… The BBDXY ended the week at 1,268… And the euro ended the week below 1.07 at 1.0691… The rest of the currencies all have been sent right back to their sick beds, as they have seen their sickness relapse… 

The price of Oil slipped a bit to close the week with an $80 handle… And the 10-year’s yield ended the week at 4.25%… 

In the overnight markets last night…The dollar was sold overnight, a bit… The BBDXY has given back 3 index points to start our day today… I think the thinking in the foreign markets is that the U.S. dollar bugs are out of their collective minds buying dollars right now… At least that’s what I would be thinking if I were foreign trader!  The currencies don’t look that much better as we start today/ week… So, the BBDXY would have to lose a bunch more points to show up in the euro, sterling, et al…   

The price of Gold is up $6 to start our day/ week….  Silver is up 9-cents this morning too… No sign yet of the short paper traders… But don’t you fret, they’re out there folks… No question about that! I can’t get my head around how dastardly the short paper traders not only stopped Gold & Silver’s rise last week, but sent them reeling once again… I had thought that maybe, just maybe, cause you-never-know (Joaquin Andujar), these short paper traders had learned their lesson, after Gold’s rise this year, that put their short trades in peril… But that thought was incorrect, and I admit that! 

The price of Oil remained just below $81 overnight, and the 10-year’s yield is 4.26% to start the day… 

Well, don’t look now, but the Japanese yen is in a free fall once again, and despite all the jawboning the Bank of Japan (BOJ) spews on the markets, the traders and hedge funds aren’t buying what the BOJ is selling… And so they continue to mark down yen… Remember, when I was quite excited that the BOJ had finally hiked rates, but said, then… “The BOJ had better follow up this rate hike, with another and soon, or else the bloom will be off the rose with yen”   Looks like that has come to fruition, eh? 

The Swiss National Bank (SNB ) cut their internal rate once again last week, and made a very interesting statement afterward, saying, that ” they had to cut rates to spur the economy, and stem the franc’s gains”…  So, did you ever question the thought that the countries of the world, are in the business of “rob thy neighbor”?   Here’s your proof! 

Back here in the U.S. something is going on that’s a little strange, and needs some further investigation into… U.S. Banks are really in trouble folks, and in my opinion, this is the catastrophe that will bring about the digital currencies… I read this morning, that the Big Banks are unloading bad debt, in an opportunity to ready themselves for the coming dark clouds…  Now, who they’re unloading that bad debt on wasn’t talked about, and to me that’s the $64 question this morning, “who’s going to be left holding the bag?” 

Yes, I know in the end it will be you and me… The taxpayers, which leads me to my number one question: Got Gold? 

Well, the U.S. had funding problems ahead… $10 Trillion in debt will come due by year-end… And that $10 Trillion will have to be rolled over, into new higher interest bonds… Good luck with that, especially, if the Fed does the dirty deeds, done dirt cheap (AC/DC)  and cuts rates to help reduce the debt servicing costs of their bonds, the funding problem will become a real road block… I’m just saying folks… It looks like this we’ve been in the eye of the storm, and the back side of the storm is about to hit us, and hit us hard…  

And that thought leads me to my next one: I’ve read the Congressional Budget Office’s notes regarding their forecast for U.S. Debt… The notes are scary folks… But will they ever really get to those levels that the CBO talked about ( U.S. debt to be greater than $56 Trillion in the next 10 years)?   Dust in the Wind… All we are is dust in the wind (Kanas)… We, will have entered a nuclear war by then?  Geesh, I sure hope not! But we can’t dismiss that thought, given the saber rattling going on between Russia and U.S., China and the U.S. and China and Taiwan, So, let’s just continue to spend, spend, until your daddy takes the car keys away! Wait, What? I’m being flippant here, with that last remark about spending… But in reality, isn’t that exactly what is going to happen anyway? 

I’m sorry, but I do read a lot of gloom and doom stuff, and sometimes it takes over my fat fingers and they begin to type away… 

OK, onto something else to wet our whistle this morning! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week is pretty barren until we get to Thursday… There’s nothing for us here today, so we’ll move along, for these are not the droids we’re looking for!  Oh, there will be a STUPID Consumer Confidence report before Thursday, as if that’s something that the markets should pay attention to! NOT!    

To recap… The dollar was on a run late last week, but ran into some selling in the overnight markets last night… Not a lot of selling, just some…  The short paper traders made a mess of things again last Friday, and this morning, Gold & Silver attempt to put the pieces of their rallies back together again… Chuck thinks that the Big Banks are telling everyone to head to their bomb shelters… And $10 Trillion of debt come due before year end, at what cost will we have to roll that debt over?   

For What It’s Worth… Matthew Piepenberg is back with another thought provoking article that can be found here: https://vongreyerz.gold/the-next-screwed-generation-deserves-an-apology?utm_source=VON+GREYERZ+AG&utm_campaign=23cd13fac3-MAILCHIMP_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_52b932d501-23cd13fac3-600781075

Or, here’s your snippet: “And when the holder of the world reserve currency runs an annual twin (budget and trade) deficit of $3T and counting, or mis-reports actual inflation to achieve a carefully hidden negative real return on its IOUs to inflate its way out of debt on the backs of the working poor, we should not only be concerned about the bills to pay (and who pays them), but also consider the neutered profile of the “bucks” used to pay them.

But perhaps such concerns feel less immediate to the Baby Boomer et al generation who, knowingly or unknowingly, can (via the help of an increasingly geriatric leadership) simply pass this embarrassing tab on to the next generation?

The Club Baller…

If I, for example, wanted to flaunt my status at the nearest “Popinjay Club” by arriving in the latest fashions and fastest car while indulging in the most elaborate and consistent dinner tabs, polo fees and trendiest wine selections, I suppose I’d have the right to spend as I please and flaunt my “success.”

After all, I am a capitalist, and like all capitalists, who doesn’t prefer first-class over economy seats?

But what if I lived this life for years, smiling through every chucker, wine bottle and sports car only to leave this world in my sleep at ripe ol’ age while leaving the entire invoice to my kids?

That is, what if I enjoyed it all, but then made them pay for it? What if I thrived so that they could suffer?

Seems insane, no? Diabolical? Selfish beyond belief? Absolutely grotesque at the micro level.

But here’s the rub: At the macro level, that is precisely what the older generation of American financial “leadership” is now doing to the younger generation.”

Chuck again… A great article that should be required reading by everyone in the U.S. including, especially that is, U.S. lawmakers… 

Market Prices 6/24/2024: American Style: A$ .6641, kiwi .6117, euro 1.0732, Sterling 1.2668, Swiss $1.1194, European Style: rand 18.1921, krone 10.5800, SEK 10.4885, forint 367.79, zloty 4.0066, koruna 23.1844, RUB 87.57, yen 159.53, sing 1.3521, HKD 7.8074, INR 83.47, China 7.2589, peso 18.07, BRL 5.4207, BBDXY 1,265.80, Dollar Index 105.56, Oil $80.93, 10-year 4.26%, Silver $29.54, Platinum $1,009.00, Palladium $993.00, Copper $4.41, And Gold… $2,326.02

That’s it for today… A lovely time was had by all at Alex and Grace’s engagement party this past weekend, that was held in Little Rock Ark.  That’s where the wedding will take place, even though they will live near me in Missouri… Hmmm… And my beloved Cardinals swept the Giants… I brought my iPad with me to Arkansas, to watch the Cardinals games… It helped pass the time while waiting for things… I’m having some health problems that if they don’t clear up, I won’t be able to get on that plane this coming Sunday… More to follow…  Eric Burdon and the Animals take us to the finish line today with their classic rock song: House Of The Rising Sun…  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals were on hiatus yesterday so no movement there
• GDP isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on!

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, my beloved Cardinals couldn’t win the 3-game series with their stablemates in Jupiter, the Marlins only winning 1 game… To a team with a really bad record, the Cardinals played down to their level of competition once again. UGH!  A nationally televised game today on Fox, so you too can share in my frustration with this team! HA! Paul Young greets me this morning with his one-hit wonder song: Every Time She Goes Away  (this song was an original Hall & Oats song) 

There wasn’t much going on in the markets yesterday, with the stock market and bond market both closed to observe the Juneteenth Holiday… So, there’s not much to report on that went on yesterday, because there wasn’t anything!  So, we move along… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar is getting bought as we start the day today, and that started in the Asian markets last night. The BBDXY is up 2 index points to start the day today. The euro is falling within the 1.07 handle, and the rest of the currencies are getting sold, and that includes the Russian ruble, which had been on the rally tracks the last week.  I don’t get why traders are buying dollars, folks…  All the stuff that follows this paragraph this morning, tells stories of how the dollar should be getting sold… But, it is what it is, and I can’t change that, so…  Oh! Gold is up $9 to start the day today, and Silver is surging, up 70-cents, the 10-year is getting sold, for once, and its yield has risen to 4.25% to start the day, and the price of oil remains in the $81 handle… 

You know, I’ve discussed how Gov’t Spending supports GDP in the past, and yesterday, Bill Bonner, was talking about the fake GDP that the U.S. boasts about, here’s Bill : “An example… Of 3.5 million veterans who served in Iraq or Afghanistan two thirds say the wars were not worth fighting. 1.8 million came home with a ‘permanent disability.’ Total veterans’ disability costs will reach as much as $2.5 trillion by 2050. Those disability payments increase GDP.  Do they also increase human happiness? 

The financial cost is a statistic. But what about the real cost… the effect of missing legs and arms on a real person… where is that number? 

Or…US retirees get an inflation adjustment in January. Monthly payments went up 3.2%. GDP went up! “

You can find Bill here: Nonna Sense – by Bill Bonner and Dan Denning (bonnerprivateresearch.com)

The U.S. economy seems to be going along without a hiccup, but is it really? Retail Sales stink, Manufacturing is in contraction, Factory Orders was tepid at best, wages continue to stagnate, GDP has averaged 2% for a decade, and inflation continues to be sticking around… Please don’t listen to the likes of: Janet Yellen, Joe Biden, and the rest of the administration, because they’ll sell you a bill of goods that is trash… I’m just saying… 

Ok, Chuck move along here before everyone begins to yell at the walls, like you do all the time! 

Here’s my friend, Rich Checkan of:Asset Strategies International. Precious Metals and Rare Tangible Assets    “The de-dollarization continues as Russia is forced by sanctions to move to the Chinese Yuan as their benchmark exchange rate. As other countries’ central banks look for alternatives to the U.S. dollar, like gold, it’s another nail in the coffin for the end of its status as the world’s reserve currency. Meanwhile precious metals are up slightly this week.”

Chuck again…..Another sharp mind thinking like me that the BRICS are hell-bent and whiskey bound to dedollarize the rest of the world… And that, my friends is a reason that you should be doing the same… Yes, you need dollar for gas, groceries and giggles, but your investment portfolio should be diversified and not so dollar oriented… Got Gold? 

And this came in from longtime reader, Bob, from zerohedge.com of course, and is being kept on the side of the road, because its Japan, but the eeriness of how similar this is to what’s going on here with banks, is crazy… And it can be found here: The Music Just Stopped: Japan Banking Giant Norinchukin To Liquidate $63 Billion In Treasuries & European Bonds To Plug Massive Unrealized Losses | ZeroHedge

Here’s the snippet: “But if that was the first, and still distant, sign that something was very wrong at one of Japan’s biggest banks (Norinchukin is Japan’s 5th largest bank with $840 billion in assets) today the proverbial canary stepped on a neutron bomb inside the Japanese coalmine, because according to Nikkei, Norinchukin Bank “will sell more than 10 trillion yen ($63 billion) of its holdings of U.S. and European government bonds during the year ending March 2025 as it aims to stem its losses from bets on low-yield foreign bonds, a main cause of its deteriorating balance sheet, and lower the risks associated with holding foreign government bonds.”

Chuck again… Remember when I used to use the song by the Vapors, Turning Japanese, when talking about our adding debt? Well, this example I just presented is a case of the Japanese turning American… HA!

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday was void of any prints due to the holiday… Today’s Data Cupboard has the usual Thursday fare of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims… And a housing report… Nothing really to get the juices going in traders today… 

To recap… Yesterday was a nothing day in the markets, as the stock and bond markets, and thus the Currency markets and metals markets were not in session due to the Juneteenth holiday. Chuck has a real thoughts for you all to take in this morning, so keep reading! 

For What It’s Worth… My good friend, Dennis Miller of www.milleronthemoney.com sent me this article and said, “This is scary!” And I replied, “Yes, it is!” So, put away the sharp objects and grab a refill on you java this morning and lets see what’s so scary… The article can be found here: Chase Bank Customers Are Reporting a Wave of Wire Fraud in their Accounts; the Bank Won’t Make Good on the Looted Funds (wallstreetonparade.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “Knowing this bank’s history of felony counts and an unprecedented rap sheet, it occurred to us that these fraudulent wire transfers might not be an isolated event at Chase Bank. We went to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s (CFPB’s) complaint database and put “Chase Bank wire fraud” in the search box. It brought up 558 responses.

If you consider that possibly one out of 50 Americans know about the CFPB’s complaint database and fewer still would take the time to file a complaint as opposed to going to law enforcement, the 558 complaints involving wire fraud appear to us to be deeply concerning. In addition, the dates of the filing of the complaints show that dozens of the complaints have occurred in the past six months in widely dispersed geographic areas including California, New York, Oregon, Colorado, Arizona, Texas and Ohio, among others.

On April 4 of this year, the CFPB received the following report from a Chase Bank customer in New York: (Redacted information, indicated by Xs, is how the complaint appears on the CFPB website.)

“On XX/XX/2024, a total of {$130000.00} was wired out of my bank accounts with Chase Bank in New York without my authorization. I never send wires for more than a few XXXX dollars. I was not notified or warned by Chase. Usually they send an email advising when a wire transfer is made. This did not happen…To my immense horror, Chase had no interest in pursuing a serious investigation….”

CFPB received this complaint from a Chase Bank customer in Colorado on April 2:

“If you are a JPMorgan Chase customer be aware!!!!!! I was a victim of a non-authorized wire transfer within my JP Morgan Chase banking account. JPMC bank is refusing to help me get my {$9200.00} that was fraudulently stolen from my account because they say there is nothing they can do, that the $ was NOT stolen from them-JPM Chase but from me personally.”

On April 1, a California couple wrote in their CFPB complaint that they had rushed to their local Chase Bank branch to stop a suspected fraudulent wire transfer and a Chase Bank employee indicated that the hacker was cloning an actual Chase Bank phone number to commit the wire fraud. “

Chuck again, and here’s the real scary part… The bank is refusing to reimburse the client’s funds that were stolen using the bank’s wire system…  I shake my head in disgust… 

Market Prices 6/20/2024: American Style: A$ .6666, kiwi .6124, C$ .7291, euro 1.0715, sterling 1.2691, Swiss $1.1224, European Style: rand 18.1053, krone 10.5352, SEK 10.4199, forint 380.82, zloty 4.0314, koruna 23.2246, RUB 86.92, yen 158.40, sing 1.3599, HKD 7.8046, INR 83.64, China 7.2605, peso 18.42, BRL 5.4347, BBDXY 1,266.86, Dollar Index 105.48, Oil $81.74, 10-year 4.25%, Silver $30.34, Platinum $985.00, Palladium $917.00, Copper $4.49, and Gold… $2,339.25

That’s it for today… Yesterday I told you that I was heading to Little Rock Ark, tomorrow… Saturday, Alex’s fiancé’s family is holding an engagement party that will be high flatutin’ … I even had to go out and by a new suit, to fit my slimmer body! Notice I didn’t say “slim body”, I said “slimmer body”, than the ones I had when I used to wear suits to give presentations… I had sticker shock at the price increases in suits since I last bought one… I will refuse to wear a tie, I do know that!  Well, 4 more Pfennigs next week and then I’m on my sojourn to Ireland… I’m getting excited about the trip… Blind Faith takes us to the finish line today with their great song: Can’t Find My Way Home…  (I’ve never been in that condition, and hope I don’t find out what it’s like!) I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please go out of your way to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies and metals have drifted about the sea since last week
• Printing a 1 Trillion coin to pay for our debt interest?

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! It’s been 5 days since I wrote to you, and I’m itching to get this going this morning! I went through my heart procedure with flying colors, albeit they had to navigate through the blood in my mouth when inserting the beathing tube… But I’m here, and was able to go home the same day, so there’s that! I rested a long time yesterday, don’t know why, but I did, and that’s that! Golden Earring greets me this morning with their great song: Twilight Zone

Well, while I was out of pocket for a few days, the dollar didn’t exactly get bought up like garage sale, deals… It did gain a bit in the BBDXY but the euro, which had briefly slipped below 1.07, rebounded back above the level yesterday. The rest of the currencies sans Russian rubles, all drifted around at sea, for the last week… The ruble is really getting bought up, and this is identical of how the ruble reacted the last time the price of Oil was on the rise… You know, I’ve always said that the ruble was an Oil play, nothing more, nothing less… 

Speaking of Oil, the price of Oil ended yesterday trading with an $81 handle… Gold & Silver have seen the ups and downs one day to the other for the last week.. Gold goes up one day, and down the next… The short paper Traders never get to rest, eh?   For the record, Gold closed yesterday, at $2,330.70, up $10 on the day. And Silver closed yesterday at $29.65 up 15-cens on the day.   I still believe that Gold & Silver especially, are at bargain prices to where I see them going. So there’s that! 

The 10-year Treasury has seen its yield plunge since last week when I last wrote to you. Then its yield was 4.32%, and yesterday the 10-year closed with a 4.22% yield… Somebody believes that a rate cut is coming, and more than one! 

In the overnight markets last night… There was little to no movement in the BBDXY, although it is down about ½ of an index point this morning… The euro is moving higher in the 1.07 handle, and the Russian ruble is kicking some tail and taking names later once again… The metals are flat to down a buck, with Silver down 10-cents, and Gold down $1 to start the day today… Levels that are easily reversed, so what say you, Gold Bugs? 

The price of Oil was steady Eddie overnight with an $81 handle, and the 10-year’s yield remained at 4.22%… So, all-in-all, a nothing event was the overnight markets last night… That’s the way they used to be, with every now and then a wild hair would grow, but these day, it’s always something coming from overseas, so there’s that! 

Speaking of Gold…  Ed Steer had this article in his letter this morning, “More than eight in ten, or 81%, of respondents to the 2024 Central Banks Gold Reserves survey said they expect reserve managers to continue to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months. This data, released by the World Gold Council, reflects the highest confidence level recorded since the survey began in 2019.”

As always you can find Ed here: www.edsteergoldsilver.com

Remember back in March, when the Fed Heads were talking about making 3 rate cuts before year-end? And I chastised them for saying that because inflation was nowhere near the 2% target for inflation that the Fed heads themselves, instituted! 

Well, fast forward to today, June 19th, more a little more than 3 months later, and The Fed Heads are now talking about 1 rate cut before year end, and the stock jockeys, bond boys, and dollar bugs are all excited as a school girl, and therefore all those asset classes are in rally mode… 

To me, it’s a little of jumping ahead, before the act takes place… There’s still no guarantee that the Fed Heads will cut 1 time before year end… Shoot Rudy, inflation isn’t going anywhere, it’s here to stay, as long as the deficit spending, money supply, and all-out doltness of our elected lawmakers keep going… On, and on, and on, hmmmmmm…..

And last week I told you about how the Saudi’s had ended their agreement with the U.S. to price all their oil contracts with other countries in dollars, and that I saw this as a negative for the dollar… 

But then James Rickards wrote the next day ( I wasn’t aware he was a Pfennig Reader!)  that: “The U.S. and Saudi Arabia are currently in negotiations on a new financial and security arrangement that would supersede the old petrodollar deal. The new agreement will provide that Saudi Arabia will recognize Israel as part of the broader Abraham Accords initiated during the Trump administration.”

Chuck again, well, if James Rickards is a Pfennig Reader, he might want to stop right here: Because it has been Rickards that claimed at least 4 times last year, that the stock market would collapse on a Certain Day…  So, take his note with a grain of salt… I’m just saying… 

I’m not dissing on James Rickards here, I still love to hear what he has to say, and have read all of his books… Just saying what’s true, that’s all… 

There’s a return talk of the U.S. minting a Trillion dollar coin and depositing it at the Fed, to cover this year’s interest expense on it’s debt… That way, the money doesn’t get printed and spent and become inflation… But what’s behind the Trillion dollar coin? The debt is all fake money any way, so why not have a fake coin?   Sometimes I wonder what has taken the eggheads that run this country’s finances so long to figure this out… This way the debt doesn’t rise, unless the knuckleheads in D.C. Overspend on boondoggles and promises… 

More to come on that thought folks… But for now, just know that this is being tossed around in D.C. Right now… 

And then there’s this from Bullionstar.com’ Ronan Manley”When the words ‘Zimbabwe’ and ‘currencies’ are mentioned in the same sentence, many people will bring to mind the chronic hyperinflation period that Zimbabwe experienced from the early 2000s to 2009, and the infamous 100 trillion Zimbabwean dollar note which Zimbabwe’s central bank issued in a desperate attempt to cope with that hyperinflation.

That hyperinflationary period – which included Zimbabwe’s inflation rate peaking at an astronomical  in November 2008 – was only brought under control when the country abandoned the then Zimbabwean dollar in 2009 and moved to a multi-currency system of officially using the US dollar and other foreign currencies, a move which stabilized Zimbabwe’s inflation rates at more ‘normal’ levels between the years 2010 and 2018.”

Chuck again, but guess what happened, the Gov’t in Zimbabwe abandoned the currency regime, and printed a new Zimbabwean dollar, and inflation returned…   So, there’s a lesson to be learned for the Trillion dollar coin thought makers in D.C. 

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) put out a statement yesterday that talked about how dealing with inflation has been difficult on everyone, but they were bound and determined to continue to fight inflation and get it back below their target rate of 1-3%… (it used to be 2%, but I guess as they got older they expanded it)  That, was the RBNZ’s way of telling the markets that interest rates will remain at present levels…. Good for them! 

Longtime reader, Bob, sent me this link: National debt will exceed $50 trillion by 2034, budget watchdog estimates (msn.com)

And here’s a brief snippet of that message: “The deficit will swell to $1.9 trillion this fiscal year and keep growing until the overall national debt hits $50.7 trillion a decade from now, Congress’s nonpartisan bookkeeper said in its latest report. “

I guess the folks in D.C. Will have to mint a lot of Trillion dollar coins!!!!

I mentioned the Russian ruble above, and there’s more to its recent strength that just the price of Oil rising… The ruble has strengthened sharply since a President Vladimir Putin decree on the mandatory sale of foreign currency for certain exporters was announced last month.  And don’t forget that last fall the Russian Central Bank raised their internal rate to 15%!  If only we weren’t fighting a war against them! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday, had a few real economic reports for May, and leading off was Retail Sales, which were up just 0.1%… And that’s not good for a strong economy, I’m just saying… Industrial Production, which in April was negative, printed positive in May at 0.9%, and Capacity Utilization stayed steady Eddie at 78.75%.. 

There’s nothing in the data cupboard today, since it’s the Juneteenth holiday today…

To recap… It’s been a back and forth trading event since Chuck last wrote last Thursday… The dollar drifted higher, but not a hot sales item. The price of Gold & Silver gained and lost in alternating days… The price of Oil gained steadily the few days and ended yesterday with an $81 handle… The U.S. is thinking about printing a Trillion dollar coin to pay for its interest expense… Somehow Chuck thinks this is not how it should be done… 

Before we go to the Big Finish today, there are a couple of RIPs to mention… First of all the great say hey kid, Willie Mays, passed away yesterday at the age of 93… And then there was the passing of Ted Butler (no relation that I know of), the Silver guru… I owe just about everything I know about the Silver market to Ted… If you looked up the word Guru, Ted’s picture would appear… RIP Ted, and Willie… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, I found this before I went to the hospital on Monday morning, and it’s about how the BLS is fudging the employment reports, something that I’ve always pointed out, now we have someone new to point out the fake jobs reports, and it can be found here: Powell Admits The Biden Admin Is “Overstating” Jobs | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “Where things got very interesting, however, is when Powell was discussing the demand-side of the labor market: here, he addressed the dropping quits level, the decline in job openings and wages, but more importantly, the rising unemployment rate – from 3.4% to 4.0% which clearly goes against the narrative of red hot payrolls –  all of which the Fed chair summarized as strong job creation, yet caveated by saying that “there is an argument that [payrolls] may be a bit overstated.“

Note: he didn’t say “understated” because the “-stating” always goes in just one direction: the one that makes the resident of the White House look good.

In other words, the jobs – like so many things about this Potemkin economy – are a lie, and while Powell immediately realized what he had said, and tried to couch it by adding that payrolls are “still strong”, suddenly the entire narrative of a strong labor market imploded in front of our eyes, because if the Biden admin will lie about a “bit” of the jobs report, it will lie about any part of it.

And, as we have shown above and every month this year, lie is precisely what the Biden administration has been doing, month after month, year after year.

And the biggest stunner, as Edward Snowden put it so eloquently, is that he’s “not sure I’ve ever seen the chairman of the Federal Reserve publicly accuse the White House of cooking the books on employment numbers, but here we are.”

Chuck again… Don’t get mad at me for using an article that calls the president a liar, the gist of the report is that the BLS is fake, and now Jerome Powell is calling them out… 

Market Prices 6/19/2024: American Style: A$ .6672, kiwi 6135, C$ .7293, euro 1.0750, sterling 1.2733, Swiss $1.1305, European Style: rand 18.0529, krone 10.6557, SEK 10.4200, forint 368.35, koruna 23.1655, RUB 84.17, yen 157.87, sing 1.3505, HKD 7.8064, INE 83.45, China 7.2569, peso 18.43, BRL 5.4357, BBDXY 1,264.22, Dollar Index 105.17, Oil $81.49, 10-year 4.22%, Silver $29.55, Platinum $982.00, Palladium $905.00, Copper $4.49, and Gold… $2,329.73

That’s it for today… I used up another of my nine lives this week… Not a big deal operation, but it did involve my heart… I’m just saying… My good friend, and former Big Boss, Frank Trotter, told me that I should donate my body to science to see how I’ve lived this long with cancer… I think I’ll pass on that suggestion, I somehow think I would be able to feel them cutting me up… I know that’s not possible, but who knows?  My beloved Cardinals tsk, tsk, tsk… They blew a game last night VS the Marlins.. A day game today down in Miami… So, hopefully I don’t sleep all afternoon today! Tomorrow I’ll talk about a trip I will be making to Little Rock, Ark, this weekend… Until then, Procol Harum takes us to the finish line today with their song: Conquistador… I hop you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar gets sold, and then bought with no change?
• soft landing my petunias!

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! My beloved Cardinals got another well-pitched game and this time they scored enough runs to win, and reward the pitcher with a W!  This will be the last Pfennig until next Wednesday, as I will be out of pocket Monday and Tuesday next week… Might as well get used to it, as in a couple of weeks I’ll be gone for 14 days, on my sojourn to Ireland… The world’s finances could go to hell in a handbasket during that time, but I’m not taking my laptop with me, so you’ll have to wait until I return to know the skinny…  Chris Stapleton greets me this morning with his big song: Tennessee Whiskey… 

I know, I know, you’re thinking, but that’s not rock and roll, Chuck! No, it isn’t, but it’s a song that I like and therefore it’s on my iPod! 

OK… Well, the Fed Heads left rates unchanged yesterday, and told the markets that they are only looking at one rate cut in 2024, and left the question of when that rate cut might come, open for the markets to figure out on their own…  

Here’s the chief Fed Head and his thoughts on rate cuts: ” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted at the press conference that the central bank does not yet have the confidence to cut rates, even as inflation has eased from its peak levels.”

A new Mr. Obvious!  We have a Wiener! I’ll say no more!

Well, first of all yesterday, we saw the May STUPID CPI, and it had inched downward, to 3.3% from 3.4%… Not the kind of movement in inflation that would warrant a rate cut… So, immediately after the report printed, and revealed such, the dollar began to get sold… And then when the Fed Heads said “no rate cut”, the dollar tried to come back, but at that point of the day, the “sell-the dollar” trade was the cat’s meow, and the BBDXY ended up losing 10 index points on the day… The euro returned to trade above 1.08, and the rest of the currencies took their small advances VS the dollar in stride… 

Gold also rallied yesterday, gaining $14 to close at $2,325.50, and Silver gained      to close at $29.85…   Now, we’ll have to see how the short paper traders see these gains… The price of Oil remained trading with a $78 handle yesterday, and the 10-year saw its yield drop again this time down to 4.31%… What on earth are the bond boys thinking? 

In the overnight markets last night… Well, taking that last statement about how the short paper traders saw the move yesterday, brings us to this morning, where Gold is down $25, and Silver is down 79-cents… The dollar has rebounded and is back to where it was before yesterday’s shenanigans… The euro slipped back below 1.08, and the only currency that shows a gain this morning is the Russian ruble… 

I guess the answer to the question above, is that the short paper traders didn’t like the upward move too much, and have decided to take action… 

The price of Oil slipped barely below the $78 handle this morning at $77.97, so no biggie move there, and the 10-year trades with a 4.32% yield this morning. 

I read on Reuters this morning that they feel like the markets are happy with the Fed Heads, and that a “soft landing” has occurred for the U.S. economy, and that they have inflation “under control”…  Hmmm… Do you call 14% inflation “under control”?    I don’t, I also don’t call it a “soft landing”, when manufacturing is still in a contraction area, and all the Special Oil Reserves have been drained, and, oh stop Chuck, these dear readers have read your rants every day, they know what’s going on here, it’s all window dressing for the election… 

So, did you know that there will be a “blackout period of stock buybacks?” I was just made aware of this and it will arrive tomorrow…  here’s the skinny: “this week is the final week ahead of the estimated blackout period. We estimate the upcoming blackout period will run 6/14 – 7/19.” And while as of Monday, Goldman estimates that around ~20% of stocks are in blackout ~50% are set to be prohibited from repurchasing their shares once the blackout period begins on Friday, June 14.”

That was taken from zerohedge.com… 

No wonder the stock market has been soaring in recent weeks, eh? I find these Corp buybacks, as something that should be banned outright… To me, if Corporations have money to spend, why aren’t they putting it back into their Companies?  Expand, hire, build, etc.   And it’s another reason that I won’t touch stocks that don’t have anything to do with mining and shipping… For all those stock valuations that are being driven by stock buybacks, are not real values, in my mind…  You can tell me I’m wrong, but I won’t listen, so don’t even try! 

The blackout period should become a real thing, and not for just a period of time… That would be down on the list of what I would decree if I were King… I’m just saying…

I wonder how the dollar bugs will take this news that came to me via the good folks at GATA: “”Due to the introduction of restrictive measures by the United States against the Moscow Exchange Group, exchange trading and settlements of deliverable instruments in U.S. dollars and euros are suspended,” the central bank said.”

Chuck again… Yes, dollars will still be able to be traded in Russia in the Over The Counter markets, but not being on the exchange should hurt the dollar’s exposure…  

And remember when the U.S. announced 100% tariffs on Chinese EV’s? Well, now the Eurozone has decided to place a 38% tariffs on Chinese EV’s… Citing that China has had excessive subsidies, and that needed to be changed… You know how I see this right?  it’s like the U.S. and E.U. Are poking a stick at the Big Bear… This doesn’t turn out good for the folks poking the stick, in my opinion… I’m just saying

Circling the wagons and coming back to the STUPID CPI print yesterday… For a comparison, John Williams at www.shadowstats.com has CPI at around 14%… The U.S. Gov’t and all their hedonic adjustments, have CPI at 3.3%…  Now that’s a HUGE differential there isn’t it? I’ve said this before, and I don’t change my mind very easily, But I’m pinning my colors to Shadowstats.com’s flag… 

Before we head to the Big Finish today, i wanted to note that the great Jerry West died at 86 the previous day… When I was a very young man, I got to go to a St. Louis Hawks NBA game, and saw Jerry West play, and was awestruck at how good he was… Yes, the Atlanta Hawks, used to be the St. Louis team… So, now we’ve had 1 basketball team leave, 2 football teams move, and we almost had our hockey team leave years ago… What’s up with that? 

The U.S. Data Cupboard was a real bummer yesterday, as it contained no fireworks…  And the Data Cupboard today, is basically empty, with only the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and PPI for May (wholesale inflation). I will admit that watching PPI is something that I do, for, as I’ve explained in the past, we’ll see consumer inflation from PPPI… I’m just saying… 

To recap… The dollar got sold, and then got bought right back again, as somebody got a wild hair, and thought that what the Fed Heads did, was bad for the dollar… No worries, everything is back to normal this morning… Chuck questions Reuters thoughts that the U.S. has reached a “soft landing” and that the Fed Heads have defeated inflation…  Yeah, right, and I’ve got a bridge to sell you! 

For What It’s Worth…  I found this yesterday, and thought to myself… If this isn’t FWIW worth, nothing is! It’s an article about the coming crash and it can be found here: Top economist predicts ‘crash of a lifetime,’ worse than 2008 (nypost.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “Harry Dent, the outspoken financial author and economist, isn’t reversing course from his bold “crash of a lifetime” declaration this past December.

Speaking in an updated interview with Fox News Digital, Dent cautioned that the “everything” bubble still has not burst, and it may be a bigger crash than the Great Recession.

“In 1925 to ‘29, it was a natural bubble. There was no stimulus behind that, artificial stimulus per se. So this is new. This has never happened,” Dent said Tuesday. “What do you do if you want to cure a hangover? You drink more. And that’s what they’ve been doing.”

“Flooding the economy with extra money forever might actually enhance the overall economy long-term. But we’ll only see when we see this bubble burst,” he added. “And again, this bubble has been going 14 years. Instead of most bubbles [going] five to six, it’s been stretched higher, longer. So you’d have to expect a bigger crash than we got in 2008 to ’09.”

“I think we’re going to see the S&P go down 86% from the top, and the Nasdaq 92%. A hero stock like Nvidia, as good as it is, and it is a great company, [goes] down 98%. Boy, this is over,” Dent stressed.

“We have never seen [the] government sustain a totally artificial bubble for a decade and a half, and see what happens after that,” he continued. “But I can tell you, there has not been one bubble, and this is far larger and longer, one major bubble in history that has not ended badly, period.”

Chuck again… I worked with Harry Dent for a short while when I was writing for the Sovereign Society… Man, that was a long time ago! Some you may recall the Currency Capitalist, and my weekly video rants I would send out to subscribers… I thought Harry Dent was “out there” back then, and it’s good to see that he hasn’t changed! 

Market Prices 6/13/2024: American Style: A$ 6643, kiwi .6172, C$ .7272, euro 1.0789, sterling 1.2776, Swiss $1.1155, European Style: rand 18.3753, krone 10.6150, SEK 10.4080, forint 367.43, zloty 4.0304, koruna 22.9106, RUB 88.08, yen 157.20, sing 1.3497, HKD 7.8106, INR 83.54, China 7.2526, peso 18.67, BRL 5.4140, BBDXY 1,264.74, Dollar Index 104.78, Oil $77.97, 10-year 4.32%, Silver $29.06, Platinum $949.00, Palladium $846.00, Copper $4.52, and Gold… $2,309.94

That’s it for today… And this week… Well, one week on the new chemo, and while I feel fine, I can’t stay awake during the day, the new chemo has really knocked me for a loop… I’m hoping that I get used to the new chemo and eventually all this sleeping goes away… My beloved Cardinals play a day game at Busch today, and then head to Chicago to play the Cubs this coming weekend… Cards/ Cubs are always good baseball games! England Dan & John Ford Coley take us to the finish line today with their great 70’s song: I’d Really Love To See You Tonight…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin; Thursday today, and please Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• the dollar returns to kicking tail and taking names later!
• The BRICS are turning into something that we should take notice of…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! The rookie sensation, Paul Skenes made quick work of the Cardinals bats last night, and the Cardinals lost to the Pirates 2-1… Too little, too late for the redbirds… UGH! I totally have been remiss with my birthday announcements this month, and completely forgot, my friend, Mike Kettler’s birthday on Monday! UGH!  Well, I hope you day was grand Mike! My second favorite Chicago song greets me this morning: Beginnings…  

Well, the overnight markets on Monday night brought about some dollar buying, and that momentum carried on throughout the day on Tuesday, with the BBDXY gaining 4 index points in the past 24 hours… The currencies took a small stride backwards,  and now everyone is on hold until today’s STUPID CPI And FOMC finalization of their two-day meeting… 

I just don’t know what the bond boys think they are going to get out of this meeting, but whatever it is, they are going to be disappointed, I’m sure… 

Gold used Tuesday as a turnaround Tuesday, and turned around the early morning loss, into a gain of $6 to close at $2,317.20, and Silver couldn’t find a bid to turn around it’s early morning loss, and ended the at down 19-cents at $29.34…   Even after last week’s engineered takedown, by the short paper traders, Gold is up 18% in 2024, and Silver is still up around 30% in 2024, so far… 

The price of Oil added another buck to its price and is back to trading with a $78 handle… See? I told you to get your automobile gassed up when the price of Oil was down to $75!   

I mentioned the bond boys above… The reason I did that, was we saw buying in the 10-year again yesterday, marking 4 consecutive days of buying and the 10-year’s yield ended up yesterday at 4.40%… I truly believe the bond boys are thinking that the Fed Heads will surprise the markets with a rate cut today…   Man, the stuff they’re smoking must be hallucinating! 

In the overnight markets last night…  The dollar was bought some more, with the BBDXY up 2 index points to start the day… But as I checked on the currencies they appeared to have shrugged off the dollar movement… I know, I know, very strange, but it is what it is…  

Gold is down $4 to start the day today, and Silver is up 4-cents, so in reality they are both flat to start the day, and I don’t think we’ll see much movement anywhere today, until the STUPID CPI prints and then later when the FOMC convenes their 2-day meeting… Yes, they have to return the board games to the shelves… 

The price of Oil has a $78 handle this morning, what just happened this week with the price of Oil, will be revealed at a later date, but for now, things are back to where they were before the price of Oil taking the Nestea Plunge, earlier this week. And the the 10-year’s remained with a 4.40% overnight, and will remain there until the fireworks start later this morning. 

I guess i need to address the FOMC rate decision that will come after all the board games have been put up… I really, can’t believe that the Fed Heads will cut rates today… Not after all the economic data that came through since their last meeting 6-weeks ago, that shows that inflation has not continued to go down, and has gone higher, and that wages have increased, and there are factions of the economy that seem to be OK…  So, there you have it… Chuck’s call on rates today… 

Yesterday, my friend, Rich Checkin, sent out a note to his clients about Gold & Silver, and I have it for you here: Like gold, silver slipped last week on news of a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report (which makes it likely that the Federal Reserve will continue to delay interest rate cuts). July silver futures dropped 3.3% last week and the front-month contract lost 6.1% on Friday. But like gold, silver is now regaining ground.

This pullback should be seen as an opportunity. Silver is still highly undervalued at current prices, and arguably, investors are missing out on potential gains. Silver gained 14% in May after rising 7% in April and gaining 8.9% in March, so with a clear positive trend established, there’s no better time to buy on the dip.”

Rich can be found at Asset Strategies… Rich and his uncle Michael Checkin, are dear friends of mine, with Michael always giving me words that I’m truly appreciative of… 

Ok, I think it was last week that I mentioned the “unrealized losses” that banks held ($517 Billion) in Treasuries and Mortgage Backed bonds… Well, yesterday on www.zerohedge.com it was another report on this: “According to the latest data from the FDIC, the U.S. banking system is sitting on $517 billion in unrealized losses due to deteriorating bond portfolios.

Unrealized losses triggered the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank in 2023.

According to the FDIC, unrealized losses on available-for-sale and held-to-maturity securities increased by $39 billion in the first quarter. That’s an 8.1 percent increase.

It was the ninth straight quarter of “unusually high” unrealized losses corresponding with Fed monetary tightening that started in 2022.”

Chuck again… Ok, the people that look at this with the rose colored glasses, say “unrealized is no big deal, as it’s only on paper”… But, Chuck says: “yes, they are unrealized, until they aren’t!”  I’m just saying… 

Circling the wagons back to a currency report, I found this on Bloomberg.com regarding the Mexican peso… “Mexico’s president-elect was set to inherit the world’s top performing currency. Instead she’s confronting a historic slump in the peso that’s casting a pall over her early days in leadership.

Claudia Sheinbaum struggled to address investor concerns Tuesday that the ruling party’s landslide election win will pave the way for measures to erode the judicial branch’s independence and allow a slate of constitutional changes to be pushed through quickly. Speaking at a news conference, she said the economy was stable and touted Mexico’s trade relationship with the US, even as the peso extended a drop. The currency is now down more than 8% since the June 2 vote, by far the world’s worst performer in that span.”

Chuck again… Who knew? Who knew that the election and change of ruling party would weaken the peso? The weaker Oil price doesn’t help the peso ward off the sellers either… 

The BRICS has an economic meeting in St. Petersburg, Russia, and here are the 3 main points that were discussed at the meeting: 

1. Putin showed how Russia still carries the potential to launch no less than nine sweeping – global – structural changes, an all-out drive involving the federal, regional, and municipal spheres.
2. That was arguably the major breakthrough in Saint Petersburg. Putin stated how the BRICS are working on their own payment infrastructure, independent from pressure/sanctions by the collective West.
3. It had to be, of course, about BRICS – which everyone, Putin included, stressed will be significantly expanded. 

Chuck again… Yes, there are currently plans for 59 nations to join the BRICS… What did I saw the other day, about it being an us VS BRICS? 

The eventual unification of all nations that want to join the BRICS, and a single unit to represent them will eventually bring about the end of the currency regime for the dollar… It won’t be next week, or next year, but it will come… Got Gold? 

Ok, want proof that the media is wrong about following the STUPID CPI report? This from CNN: The Fed is winning its battle against inflation. So why isn’t it cutting rates? | CNN Business

If the media would cover John Williams’ Shadowstats.com, they would see how wrong they are… But that would be investigative journalism wouldn’t it? And no one, does that any longer! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard had the The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index yesterday, and it reached the highest reading of the year in May at 90.5, a 0.8-point increase but still the 29th month below the historical average of 98.  a real non-market moving data print, but one that I truly believe should be more closely looked at by the markets.

Today’s Data Cupboard has the aforementioned STUPID CPI, and the culmination of the two-day FOMC meeting to discuss rates… I’ll be a monkey’s uncle if the Fed Heads cut rates this afternoon… 

To recap… The dollar continued the buying that started in the overnight markets, and finished the day up 4 index points in the BBDXY… The new regime in Mexico after the recent elections are being blamed for the peso’s plunge… The BRICS are becoming a real problem for nations in the West… I’m just saying… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, Singapore is moving upward these days, and this article tells us all about their move… And it can be found here: Singapore to lead the gold market, said the World Gold Council (cnbc.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “Singapore is set to become a leading gold hub as trading shifts east, according to the World Gold Council.

One key reason is that gold consumption in major emerging economies is rising, and a majority of these markets are concentrated in Asia, said Shaokai Fan, head of Asia-Pacific and global head of central banks.

Singapore’s proximity to these central banks, which are actively snapping up gold, is another factor, he added.

“The center of gravity of the gold market has shifted east, with Singapore, fortuitously placed as the potential fulcrum of this new balance,” Fan said at the Asia Pacific Precious Metals Conference held in Singapore.”

Chuck again… I would like to thank the good folks at GATA for sending me that link… I’ve always been intrigued by Singapore and how they set their interest rates and keep close tabs on their spending, and currency…  

On a sidebar: Singapore and Russia are the only two countries that matter, that have little to no debt… I find that admirable for a country… I’m just saying… 

Market Prices 6/12/ 2024: American Style: A$.6611, kiwi .6143, C$ .7273, euro 1.0761, sterling 1.2759, Swiss $1.1161, European Style: rand 18.6631, krone 10.6641, SEK 10.4613, forint 367.16, zloty 4.0331, koruna 22.9863, RUB 89.29, yen 157.32, sing 1.3425, HKD 7.8109, INR 83.54, China 7.2536, peso 18.90, BRL 5.3660, BBDXY 1,267.31, Dollar Index 105.22, Oil $78.82, 10-year 4.40%, Silver $29.38, Platinum $952.00, Palladium $887.00, Copper $4.50, and Gold… $2,313.40

That’s it for today… Well, 48 years ago today, I married the sweetheart of my life, my beautiful bride, Kathy… My bandmates sang a song that I had written for the occasion… I’ve told this story before, but here goes again… I met Kathy on the track at our high school, I was running track, and saw this beautiful red headed young lady practicing cheerleading. I stopped, and had to know who she was… I got her phone number and the rest is history…  In my eye, she’s still that beautiful bride… Eddie Money takes us to the finish line today with his song: I Think I’m In Love… Pretty appropriate song for today, eh? I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and will Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals rally on Monday…
• But get sold again in the overnight markets!

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! No baseball for me last night, so I vegged out for the night. Kathy was gone, and the house was quiet, so I basically fell asleep, and stayed asleep the rest of the night!  My mom would have called me “lazy bones”… But as I said many time in the past, I truly believe that your body tells you how much sleep you need…  Triumph greets me this morning with their song: Lay It On The Line… 

That’s what I do here every day that write! Lay it on the line! And we’ll see yet another example of that later in the letter today… 

Well, all the dollar buying ended yesterday, and the dollar ended up giving back the overnight gain, and finishing the day flat at 1,262… Gold continued to pick up the pieces of its year-long rally, and gain $18 on the day to close at $2,311.20, and Silver gained 62-cents to close at $29.77….  

It’s difficult to tell whether these gains in the metals were a result of a correction of an over-sell, or new buyers entering the market… I had read over the weekend that China didn’t buy any physical Gold in May… That could be a BIG reason why Gold floundered in May… Or, it could be the old saying for stocks, “buy in May, and go away”… 

The price of Oil gained back $2 yesterday, and ended the day with a $77 handle… Again, it’s difficult to tell whether the gain was a correction of an oversell, or new buyers… 

And the 10-year saw it’s yield drop 2 basis points on the day to close at 4.45%… The same question holds true here too… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar buying returned… What’s going on here? Well, to me it confirmed that yesterday’s backing off of the dollar was merely an overbought correction, and then last night they picked the ball up and ran with it again. The BBDXY gained 3 index points overnight, and the currencies look like they are returning to their sick beds… The euro is still feeling the effects of having its deposit rate cut by the ECB last week, as is the Canadian loon having the same feeling… 

I truly believe that these Central Banks (ECB, BOC) will rue the day they went ahead of the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel in cutting interest rates… I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see, eh?  Gold is getting sold as we start the day today, and is down $5, while Silver is down 54-cents… While these two metals showed signs of recovery yesterday, they just couldn’t hold on to it tightly… UGH!  

Speaking of Silver… The great Silver Guru, Ted Butler, (no relation that I’m aware of) announced that he stop his research business as he deals with a health problem… I wish him good luck, good health, and a quick return to his business of tracking the Silver market.  This news took me back to June 2007… When I was at home recovering from back-to-back cancer surgeries, and not writing…  So, you see, I get it… And wish him well… 

OK… Well, did you hear the news about Russia’s economy? You know the one that was supposed to be reeling by now after a couple of years of sanctions on them imposed by the U.S. and Europe?  Well, last week, it was announced that  Russia has now officially surpassed Japan for the 4th spot, according to the World Bank:  Ok, it’s important to know that after China, the U.S. and India, the numbers aren’t very large… But to move ahead of Japan is HUGE… The news didn’t move the ruble any, so maybe I’m making a mole hill out of an ant hill… Maybe… 

And I’m going long here, but what the heck? Remember Matthew Piepenburg? I used to use his entries on the vongreyerzgold.com site all the time… I think of him as the best thinker on markets that are out there… Well, he has  a new, very long, comment on the website, and I’m going to point you there so you can carve out the time to read it… But first, here’s a snippet of this letter: “So, yes there is tremendous reason for informed and genuine concern, but rather than wait for the end of the world, it would be far more effective to logically prepare for a changing world.

Rather than debate left or right, black or white, straight or trans, safe or effective, smart (Barrington Resolution) or stupid (Fauci), we’d likely serve our individual and collective minds far better by embracing the logical and tabling the emotional.

Toward that end, we’d be equally better off relying on our own judgement rather than that of the children making domestic, monetary or foreign policy decisions from DC to Belgium…

Logically speaking, the USD (and US of A) is changing.

Like its recent swath of weak leadership, the greenback and US IOU are quantifiably less loved, less trusted, less inherently strong and well…far less than they were at Bretton Woods circa 1944.”

Chuck again… Here’s the link, enjoy! Gold & Oil: Understanding Rather than Fearing Change – VON GREYERZ AG

G. Edward Griffin the author of the great book: The Creature From Jekyll Island, a book about the beginnings of the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, has really gotten into exposing the Gov’t’s Central Bank Digital Currency (BBDB’s)…  Here’s his lates post on them: 

“Bankers and governments across the globe are pusing central bank digital currency (CBDC) that can enable totalitarian control over money and trade. Forbes Magazine explains why Sweden, China and the Eastern Caribbean are leading the race toward digital currency (and control).
And talk about CBDCs that provide authorities with unparalleled power to surveil, control, and manipulate the financial existence of billions of people.” From needtoknownews.com 

Longtime readers will recall me telling you all about the Gov’t’s plan to introduce digital currencies to us when the next financial disaster unfolds… That was in May of 2020… Yes, it’s been 4 years, that the financial disaster has hung by the skin of its teeth, but its coming, I can feel it in the air tonight, oh Lord(Phil Collins)  Yes, everything seems askew right now, on one hand people are flying and eating out like it’s the best of times,  and on the other hand, more people are living from hand to mouth, and as Bill Bonner asked yesterday, what happens with the mouth is empty?”

That’s one of the reasons the short paper traders keep pushing back against gains in Gold & Silver… The short paper traders get their marching orders from the U.S. Gov’t, and the U.S. Gov’t can not let it appear that people are panicking and buying Gold…   I’m just saying… 

Longtime reader, Bob, sent me this link for a video on what’s going on with the BRICS… Check it out; 42 Countries Joining BRICS: What Next (youtube.com)

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the Business Optimism report for May for us today, no biggie, and should be bang on April’s report… Tomorrow is the BIG DAY, a double whammy if you will with both the STUPID CPI and the FOMC meeting taking place…The FOMC will being their two-day meeting today, and the question I have for them is this: Who’s getting the game boards out?… I read a report yesterday, before falling asleep, that talked about how the FOMC will cut rates in July, and then 2 more times this year… I don’t know what that writer was smoking, and I don’t want any of it, but it must have been good!  I’m just saying…

To recap… Monday was a day of correcting oversells in Chuck’ s opinion, with Gold & Silver attempting to pick of the pieces of their broken rallies that got whacked last Friday. The dollar stopped getting bought, and the price of Oil rebounded by $2 on the day. Chuck revisits digital currency, and talks about what the BRICS are up to… 

For What It’s Worth…  Well, this article explains why the plummeting prices of Copper prices & Oil signal a stressed economy and its well worth the read, and can be found here: Plummeting oil, diesel, and copper prices signal economic stress. Here’s why. – MarketWatch

Or, here’s your snippet: Some commodities can serve as barometers of economic activity, and the recent sharp declines in diesel, crude oil, and copper prices, along with signs of a demand slowdown in recent weeks, hint at a U.S. economy that has been struggling.

“With demand waning for commodities, this could be seen as an indication of weakness, which may suggest that the economy may be weaker than we may have thought,” said Katy Kaminski, chief research strategist at alternative investment manager AlphaSimplex.”

Oil and, by extension, diesel are barometers of economic health, said Ernie Miller, chief executive officer of Verde Clean Fuels.

And there have been visible signs of slowing demand growth for oil and diesel, which are “indicative of an economy that is struggling with high interest rates and slow growth,” he said. U.S. economic growth between the fourth quarter of 2023 and first quarter of this year slowed “dramatically.”

“Slowing demand growth for oil is the result of lackluster economic conditions and post-pandemic recovery that is running out of steam,” said Miller.”

Chuck again… That pretty much makes abundant sense to me… How about you?

Market Prices 6/11/2024: American Style: A$ .6584, kiwi .6122, C$ .7258, euro 1.0730, sterling 1.2740, Swiss $1.1050, European Style: rand 18.6959, krone 10.7130, SEK 10.5770, forint 368.02, zloty 4.0458, koruna 23.0442, RUB 89.19, yen 157.10, sing 1.3533, HKD 7.8100, INR 83.67, China 7.2544, peso 18.35, BRL 5.3499, BBDXY 1,265.66, Dollar Index 105.35, Oil $77.61, 10-year 4.44%, Silver $29.23, Platinum $957.00, Palladium $893.00, Copper $4.45, and Gold… $2,306.56

That’s it for today… 48 years ago, t was a blazing hot day,  I was rushing about, taking my car to the Car Wash, picking up my tux, and getting a hair cut, for the next day, I was to get married… And that night, I sat on my parents front porch with my two best friends, Mike & Robin, and my mom joined in to listen to our stories of the crazy things we did as teenagers… It was my last night of being a bachelor… 48 years ago… WOW! I was remiss in forgetting about Dawn’s husband, Jerry, last week, as he turned 44! Happy belated Birthday, Jerry, I hope your day was grand! Van Morrison takes us to the finish line this morning with his mega hit song: Moondance…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and that you will Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & Metals get taken to the woodshed on Friday
• The ECB cuts rates, and France is under the “unknow” cloud….

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! A beautiful weekend here in the Midwest was had by all… The rain came at night, and the days were warm with little humidity… The calm before the storm weather-wise as I see it…So, I finally broke down and watched a Battlehawks football game yesterday, as Steve McCroskey said in the great movie: Airplane… I picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue, no wait! I mean I picked the wrong day to watch a St. Louis team play football…   The Guess Who greets me this morning with their song: Share The Land… 

Well, last Friday was an engineered takedown to beat the band… I had really thought to myself that these days were over, and not to be seen again, and then to my surprise, the short paper traders saw to it that their on paper losses were taken care of… UGH!   Oh, well, we might as well get into all of that, so here we go! 

Gold and Silver got whacked with a great big stick on Friday… Sure the markets took the jobs report, hook, line and sinker, but the major part of the selling of the metals was in the short paper trades… Gold lost $83 on Friday, and Silver lost a whopping $2.14… It was a very ugly day, for the metals, and the short paper traders were waiting in the weeds for a data print that would show how rates were going to remain higher, longer so they could take the metals down… BIG TIME

So, lets dive into the trumped up BLS jobs report from last Friday… The BLS reported that 272,000 jobs were created in May… I mean C’mon, BLS, you really don’t think that your report is believable do you?  The Birth/ Death calculation that was added to the total from the surveys of added jobs, showed that 231,000, were added from an Excel spreadsheet, or out of thin air, whichever you care to vision it. That means the surveys from businesses only added up to 41,000 jobs… 

I read a report on Zerohedge.com that quoted the Bank of American economists that said that the Birth / Death Model has added an extra 100,000 jobs per month… Well, last month it was 231,000, and for the last two months added together the addition is 594,000 jobs added… 

So, how does the BLS explain how they showed that many jobs created in May, when the Unemployment Rate for May rose to 4.0% (from 3.9% April)?    

I just can’t explain the BLS’s rigging of the jobs report any better… But maybe this will help: Consider this: the BLS reports that in May 2024, the US had 133.3 million full-time jobs and 28.0 million part-time jobs. Well, that’s great… until you look back one year and find that in May 2023 the US had 134.4 million full-time jobs, or more than a million jobs than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by more than 1.5 million since May 2023.   I just sit here in amazement that the markets took the report and ran with it… I also shake my head in disgust… 

The dollar saw a HUGE upward movement from the Jobs Jamboree, with the BBDXY gaining 10 index points on Friday! But when you look at the currencies, they don’t show the effects of this 10 index point gain in the BBDXY… The euro still holds the 1.08 handle, and the rest of the currencies are still alive… The Petrol Currencies are the ones that showed a hit of small proportions… The Mexican peso was a drop to an 18 handle, and the Russian ruble slipped back to an 89 handle. Remember these are what’s called European priced currencies, so as the number go higher, they are losing ground to the dollar. 

The Petrol Currencies saw their current handles taken out after the Price of Oil slid to a $75 handle on Friday… Our friends (NOT!) over at OPEC have to be wondering just what the hell happened on Friday?  I say that, because that’s what I was doing… 

And the 10-year saw major selling on Friday… The 10-year’s yield rose to 4.44%, on the “higher, longer rate talk”…  

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar got bought some more with the BBDXY showing a gain of 3 index points to start our day/ week… Higher and longer for rates seems to have finally caught the markets attention… And that leads me to say something that I don’t want to say, but will… The Fed Heads have always liked to surprise the markets… So, could they be like Bullwinkle and have something up their sleeve for this week’s FOMC meeting? I doubt it, and come to think of it, Bullwinkle always showed that he didn’t have anything up his sleeve! 

Gold is attempting to put the pieces of its year-long rally back together this morning, and is up $7 to start our day/ week, with Silver gaining back 57-cents to start our day/ week.  The 10-year saw some additional selling overnight, and the yield on the 10-year starts the week at 4.47%… 

And the price of Oil remained in the $75 handle…  You know, in my humble country boy opinion, the time to back up the truck and gas up, is now, while the getting is good with gas prices… I fear that they won’t be this cheap for too long…  I’m just saying… 

The Big Dog euro, saw some selling pressure from last week’s goings on in Europe.. First, we saw the European Central Bank (ECB ) cut their internal rate 25 BPS to 3.75% on Thursday last week… I was really hoping that the ECB would see through the latest reduction of Inflation and hold steady, Eddie on rates, but they didn’t, and now the euro has to suffer from their uncalculated, risky rate cut… 

And Second, the election in France has caused some dark clouds to come over The French President, Macron… And what have I always told you that traders don’t like? Unkowns…  And that word is floating over France right now, and the euro has to suffer from that too… I’ve got something related to this thought in the FWIW for you this morning, so don’t change the channel just yet! 

With the euro backing away from the 1.09 handle, that it came so darn close to last week before the rate cut news, the rest of the currencies are starting the week on a down note… The U.S. dollar is the king of the hill once again, or as I described it many years ago, the cleanest shirt in the dirty clothes…    

I’ve been talking about Copper quite a bit for the last two years, highlighting the lack of supply VS demand, and the run-up in Copper’s price… So, when I saw this article Titled: “Copper: Is the correction the end of the rally” on barchart.com, I was intrigued…  Here’s a short snippet from the article: ” I asked if Copper was heading for a new record high. The nearby July COMEX futures price was at the $4.6255 level on May 6, and the bullish trend threatened to challenge the March 2022 $5.01 high. I highlighted that the technical trend, climate change initiatives, and production struggling to keep up with the rising demand presented a compelling bullish case for copper.

Copper’s correction from its most recent high has not negated the long-term bullish trend. The odds continue to favor even higher highs over the coming months.”

Chuck again… The article goes on to talk about the futures market in Copper and how the futures market has Copper price above $5… So, that’s a good indication of where the spot of Copper will be headed… I’m just saying…

Copper, along with lumber, Gold, and Oil are good indicators for a commodities rally… 

OK, I’ve gone on too long this morning, time to head to the Big Finish…

The U.S. Data Cupboard was full lies late last week, so we’ll just move on to this week’s Data Cupboard, which will have the STUPID CPI report for May on Wednesday this week… And quite frankly, the markets are so spell-bound by the STUPID CPI that the direction of the dollar, and Gold will be decided by the direction of that report… So, get ready… Strap yourself in, and make certain that no arms or legs are out of the carriage… 

Oh! And Wednesday this week will be the June FOMC meeting to discuss interest rates… There are still calls out there for a rate cut at this meeting, but I think the Fed Heads would be slipping the noose over their collective heads if they cut rates after what the market believe was a moon shot jobs report last week… I’m just saying… 

To recap… The BLS fed the markets lies, on Friday, and that got the dollar bought, and Gold Sold, which would have been just a normal run-of-the-mill correction if it weren’t for the short paper traders who walloped Gold & Silver beyond recognition… It was UGLY!  Copper’s correction is not the end of the rally… The price of Oil got taken to the woodshed too… With only the dollar shining brightly on Friday…  

For What It’s Worth…  Ok, I tempted you to remain on this channel, and so now I must deliver! This is an article that talks about how will the markets swallow all of the bad news that’s hitting the news every day, and it can be found here: Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: Summer of Discontent and Instability

Or, here’s your snippet: “It was another important week – and I’m not referring to Nvidia’s market cap surpassing Apple’s to reach $3.0 TN (or Roaring Kitty’s podcast touting GameStop attended by 600,000). There were market-surprising/shocking election results in Mexico, India, and South Africa. Volatility was notable across international markets. The ECB and Bank of Canada cut rates this week, with markets seeing the global central bank community’s easing cycle now underway. And Friday, another stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls report rattled the bond market. Could there possibly be a common thread?

The Mexican peso sank 7.2% this week, with over half the loss on post-election Monday. Mexican stocks (S&P/BMV Index) were slammed 6.1% in Monday trading. Indian (Nifty50) equities were hit 5.9% in Tuesday’s session.  

June 6 – Bloomberg (Ezra Fieser): “Early Monday morning, one of the world’s most profitable currency trades unraveled, done in by a twist in Mexican elections few saw coming. Twenty hours later, investors in India started frantically dumping stocks, triggering a one-day, $386 billion wipeout, when they realized they had badly miscalculated the scope of Narendra Modi’s election victory. Around the world, surprise results in some of the biggest developing countries are illustrating how much markets have riding on the politics of 2024… From Mumbai to Mexico City, the Year of the Election — in which 40 countries are holding national votes — is already burning investors, providing an early warning as elections in the European Union and UK near, and five months ahead of the US presidential contest.”

Highly speculative (and levered) markets don’t mix so well with voter acrimony. Importantly, speculative Bubbles and public enmity are not coincidental. They are inevitable consequences of inflationism and monetary disorder. Given enough time, policies so revered by the markets will be viewed with increasing disdain by the masses. Wealth inequalities become only more pronounced late in the cycle, creating a sprawling divergence between market euphoria and deepening public dissatisfaction. Political class market embracement/accommodation at some point shifts to the appeasement of ever more powerful populist movements. Markets this week at least acknowledge the unfolding power-shift to disgruntled electorates.”

Chuck again…  this article is written by Doug Noland, of whom I’ve quoted him several times through the years in the Pfennig… So, he’s no stranger, and he’s hit a nail on the head here… 

Market Prices 6/10/ 2024: American Style: A$ .6592, kiwi .6107, C$ .7267, euro 1.0747, sterling 1.2709, Swiss $1.1190, European Style: rand 187853, krone 10.7853, SEK 10.5523, forint 366.52, zloty 4.0253, koruna 22.9186, RUB 88.89, yen 156.90, sing 1.3531, HKD 7.8136, INR 83.51, China 7.2417, peso 18.43, BRL 5.3460, BBDXY 1,265.80, Dollar Index 105.28, Oil $75.84, 10-year 4.47%, Silver $29.72, Platinum $968.00, Palladium $919.00,   Copper $4.52, and Gold… $2,300.60

That’s it for today… My beloved Cardinals fell back into their old habit of playing to the level of their competition… There’s no other excuse that can be used here… Hey! There will be no Pfennig next Monday and Tuesday… I’ll be going in for my heart procedure on Monday, and won’t be back home until Tuesday… So, I’ll do my best to pump as much info as I can into the Pfennigs this week…  This coming Sunday will be Father’s Day… Longtime readers know my fondness of my dad… This is an alert to you to give your dad something other than a tie!  Chicago takes us to the finish line today with their song (and my fave Chicago song!) Hard Habit To Break… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and that you will Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rally on Wednesday… (it was their day to do so!)
• Bank of Canada cuts their internal rate 25 Basis Points!

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, my beloved Cardinals found a way to avoid being swept by the Astros, by winning the last game of the series, the team comes home after a 9-game road trip… I’m still of the opinion that their recent winning streak before going on the road trip, was a fluke… I sure hope I’m wrong!  ELO greets me this morning with their song: Telephone Line

Well, The dollar got sold a bit yesterday, with the BBDXY losing 2 index points. The euro edged higher, and brought the rest of the currencies along…  I read yesterday that Gold had replaced euros as the top reserve currency for Global Central Banks…   

Speaking of Gold, it was an “up day”, for the shiny metal, and it gained $28 on the day to close at $2,255.90. Silver gained 48-cents on the day to close at $30.02… And my new pet commodity, Copper, gained 12-cents to close at $4.65… 

The price of Oil gained a buck yesterday to end the day trading with a $74 handle. And bonds continue to rally, with the 10-year’s yield falling to 4.30% to end the day. 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar gained back the 2 lost index points in the BBDXY overnight… Hmmm… A real paradox, eh? Sold during the day, bought at night… Oh well, the euro is back to being within spittin’ distance of 1.09, and the carry trade is back to push yen lower once again. 

Gold is up $6 to start our day today, and Silver is up 31-cents to start our day… Makes sense, doesn’t it? Yesterday was a down day for the metals, and that makes today an up day… I kid of course, but that’s how the days have gone for the last week… Alternating days of ups and downs… That would mean that this morning’s gains will be wiped out by the short paper traders… Hey! Maybe the short paper traders are asleep at the wheel today! We can only hope! Makes me want to ask the Short paper traders, this… What’s it gonna be boys?

Here’s Ed Steer from his letter that can be found here: www.edsteergoldsilver.com “The short holders in silver and gold are still in the hole by $15+ billion in unrealized/unbooked margin call losses — and one has to wonder just how long even some of the Big 8 shorts can hold out before they’re forced to cover.

These are very dangerous times — and at some point the flight to gold and silver will be on in earnest. It most likely is now to a degree, but the powers-that-be aren’t allowing it to be reflected in their respective prices. One can only fantasize at what demand will morph into once those prices are allowed to reflect the true supply/demand fundamentals.

I’ve always said that when this price management scheme breaths its last, it won’t happen in a news vacuum…but the looming possibility of a world war is not what I had in mind, or wished for.”

Chuck again… Ed is on these short paper traders like stink on a skunk, so I depend on him for the skinny on the these dastardly fellows… 

Well, I don’t know if you’ve been tracking the Mexican peso in the currency roundup each day, but if you haven’t you might be surprised to see the peso trading with a 17 handle… No, the Central Bank has not cut rates, but the price of Oil has sprang a leak, and then there’s the political election, which is probably reminiscent of the Wild West, is hanging over the peso… The Bank of Mexico’s President said that the “peso would rebound once the election is completed”… 

We had seen the peso outperform all currencies in recent times, so there’s a chance that the BOM President’s words could be proven correct…  I’m just saying…

Well the Bank of Canada did the dirty deed done cheap (AC/DC) yesterday when they cut their internal rate 25 Basis Points (1/4%)… I truly believe that they will rue the day they cut rates, and talked like they would cut them a few more times in 2024…  I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see…  The loon didn’t get hurt too much with the 25 BPS rate cut, but then, the markets didn’t really have a lot of time to discuss the rate cut yet… 

Well, longtime reader, Bob, sent me a note yesterday, telling me that Turkey now wants to join the BRICS… Pretty soon, it’ll be a handful of countries in NATO, and the rest of the World part of BRICS…   I know that these organizations were not created to bring about war… But… Oh, no, I’m not going there this morning… But you get my drift, eh? 

I found this on www.needtoknownews.com “According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s first quarter report, the US banking system is sitting on a collective $517 billion in unrealized losses and has 63 “problem banks.” The losses have been sparked primarily by a surge in interest rates over the past two years, which have driven down the price of fixed-income securities held by banks. Financial analyst John Williams warns of a bank “bail-in” that involves banks seizing customer deposits.”

Chuck again… Ok, before we go on, you all know what a bank “bail-in” is right? Ok, for those of you who said no… That bank bail in is when the bank seizes your bank deposits to pay their debts, Our previous President signed that into law to make it allowable… Wait, What? Yes, your bank deposits could be taken without legal hang-ups…  Now, that’s a cherry talking point isn’t it? (NOT!) 

There’s no market moving economic data in the U.S. data Cupboard today, with only the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and 1^st QTR Productivity… So, in essence, really not much! 

Yesterday’s Data Cupboard had the ADP Employment Report for April… For new readers, this is the report that I truly believe should be used as the national jobs report, and not the hedonically adjusted crap the BLS prints, and will print tomorrow…  The ADPE report showed that 152,000 jobs were added in April… That’s not a good figure for those of you keeping score at home… The BLS report will look nothing like the ADP… I’m just saying… 

To recap… The Bank of Canada cut rates 25 Basis Points yesterday, and talked about cutting more as the year goes on… Chuck thinks they’ll rue the day they cut rates while inflation is still sticking around. The BOM President thinks the peso will rebound… And Chuck talks about bank bail-ins… 

For What It’s Worth… I told you last week that Larry Summers was never my favorite Treasury Sec. But as he ages, he seems to have come over the dark side, with me and others… I found this on Bloomberg.com and it can be found here: Summers Sees Higher US Long-Term Treasury Yields Over Time – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said he sees higher long-term interest rates over time.

“Markets should be getting used to rates in current ranges for the foreseeable future and probably long rates above current levels,” he said Tuesday in an Economic Club of New York webinar conducted with former White House chief economist Glenn Hubbard. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is currently around 4.3%.

Summers, who is now a Harvard University professor as well as a paid Bloomberg contributor, said inflation is not on a “convincing trajectory” to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

He also argued, as he has before, that the neutral short-term interest rate – the rate which neither spurs nor retards economic growth — is around 4.5%, well above the 2.6% median estimate of Fed policymakers.

“We need to adjust ourselves to a 4 1/2% neutral rate as a reasonable best guess,” he said. “That probably means less Fed cutting than is now anticipated.”

Chuck again… The Bond boys, and stock jockeys are all thinking that the Fed Heads will cut rates by 50 Basis Points total by year end… I say hogwash! Yes, I believe the Fed heads have an itchy trigger finger on the rate cut gun, but I also believe that inflation is not going to be anywhere close to the Fed/ Cabal/ cartel’s inflation target of 2%… 

I do realize that a lot of the Gold’s rise in recent months has been partially aided by the rate cut talk, and with a rate cut that bump that Gold gets is nowhere to be found… But shoot Rudy, by then, Gold will be in everybody’s mind as the financial system teeters…  I’m just saying…

Market Prices 6/6/2024: American Style: A$ .6644. Kiwi .6184, euro 1.0886, sterling 1.2774, Swiss $1.1213, European Style: rand 18.9827, krone 10.5766, SEK 10.3957, forint 359.91, zloty 3.9895, koruna 22.6577, RUB 89.03, yen 156.18, sing 1.3479, HKD 7.8101, INR 83.47, China 7.2444, peso 17.55, BRL 5.2983, BBDXY 1,252.46, Dollar Index 104.31, Oil $74.76, 10-year 4.31%, Silver $30.33, Platinum $1,004.00, Palladium $940.00, Copper $4.66, and Gold… $2,361.20

That’s it for today… Well, this weekend (June 9th) will be one of my fave people on earth, birthday… Happy early Birthday, Laura Baur! I hope your day is grand! Man, I really did a good job on dinner last night… I grilled kabobs with garlic buttered shrimp, mushrooms, red onion, and pineapple, and then put it over steamed white rice! YUMMY!   And Kathy didn’t eat, so it was all mine! I had more stuff to cook, but I ran out of skewers… The late great George Harrison takes us to the finish line today with his song: What Is Life? I hop you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and will promise that you’ll Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals get sold on Tuesday…
• Wait till you see awaits you in the FWIW today!

Good Day… And a Wonder Dog Wednesday to you! My beloved hit 3 homers again last night, and like the night before, they lost the game… All those previous losses when we received great starting pitching, and no hitting, now we get hitting and no pitching! UGH! Baseball will definitely drive you crazy at times, folks… So, If I sound a little off my rocker today, you’ll know why!  Golden Earring greet me this morning with their hit song: Radar Love…

Well, it was another day of one day up, the next day down, with yesterday being the down’s day for the metals… Gold lost $23, and Silver gained 4-cents… Copper lost 3-cents… So, Gold was the whipping boy for the short paper traders yesterday…   

The dollar gained 2 index points on the day, and ended the day at 1,252…  I would have thought, that since last week when the economic data was bad for the dollar, the dollar got sold, that this week would bring more of that kind of trading, but noooooooooo!  The ISM (manufacturing Index) dropped in April to 48.7 from 49.2… That’s going the wrong way folks… And just a friendly neighborhood reminder that any number below 50 means the manufacturing sector is in Contraction…   

But the dollar bugs saw to it that it didn’t mean a hill of beans to them, and the dollar gained ground on the day… The euro remained well bid above 1.08, and the rest of the currencies, that are not Petrol Currencies, all seemed to hold on to their pants…  With the price of Oil remaining in the $73 handle yesterday, the Petrol Currencies were able to catch their collective breaths… 

The 10-year’s yield dropped 7 more basis points yesterday, and ended the day trading with a 4.34% yield…  Longtime traders know that I was once a foreign bond trader, and for years, I was around U.S. Treasury Bond traders, and I thought I had a good handle on what they used to move the yields on bonds… And that they were always looking ahead…  But today’s U.S. Treasury Bond dealers are not their father’s dealers…  I’m just saying… For if they were they would be looking ahead at all the maturities that are coming due in the near future, and all the new debt that will have to be added to new bonds to replace the maturing ones… And, asking themselves, “who is going to buy all that debt?” 

Just for those of you keeping score at home… I read the other day that China had sold a record amount of Treasury and US agency bonds in the first quarter… how does $53.2 Billion sound?  I don’t think we as a nation can depend on the kindness of foreigners any longer… We’ve ticked off, sanctioned some, and made them choke down trillions of debt already, and they are saying now… no mas! 

In the overnight markets last night… There was little to no movement in the dollar overnight with the BBDXY gaining just ½ index point. Yen, after enjoying a day or two of sunshine is back to getting sold this morning, and the rest of the currencies, sans Petrol Currencies, all look a bit healthier this morning… The Price of Oil remained in the $73 handle overnight, and have given up the ghost on price increases here… The Summer driving season is upon us, so there should be some upward movement, but we’ll have to wait-n-see….   I did, for once in a blue moon, filled up my gas tank yesterday, while prices were lower…  I was really proud of myself for that move…  

Gold is up $6 to start our day today, and Silver is up just 3-cents to start the day. The short paper traders probably slept in today, something I kind of wish I could’ve done!  I told you yesterday my outlook for the metals, so we don’t have to rehash that… The metal that was going great guns a couple of weeks ago, and now isn’t any longer, Copper, was introduced to price management, from the short paper traders, and their relationship has been all one-sided… UGH! 

The 10-year’s yield fell a couple more basis points overnight, and trades this morning with a 4.32%… The weak data that’s been printing sure has caused the rate cut bugs to come out from the wall boards, and scatter around the kitchen… But like I’ve pointed out, if the data is so weak that the bond boys smell a rate cut coming, then why is the dollar not getting weaker? Something’s got to give here, folks… 

Well, I was actually out of it for most of yesterday, the new chemo that I’m taking knocked me on my arse… I slept most of the day… And was able to go right back to sleep last night after the ball game… I feel somewhat OK, this morning… After I get my coffee, I think I’ll be good to go today…  I told you that to let you know, I didn’t make notes yesterday during the day of what I wanted to talk about this morning, so… This could very well be a shot-n-sweet Pfennig today… 

I found this last night… and after you read this, knowing what you know about the manufacturing sector and adding an eye of newt, no wait, we’re not making a witch’s brew here, simply add this info and then you can point to them the next time you hear A Gov’t Official tell you how strong the U.S. economy is: “The long list of restaurant chains closing locations due to financial reasons keeps growing. Now, joining the likes of Red Lobster, Pizza Hut, Boston Market, TGI Fridays, Popeyes, Tijuana Flats, Cracker Barrel and Applebee’s in shuttering locations, is national burger chain BurgerFi, and also like some other companies, they might also be filing for bankruptcy soon.”

And before I go to the big Finish today, I wanted to share this with you… Fed president Neel Kashkari says that Americans have such a ‘visceral’ hatred of inflation that they’d rather have a recession than rising prices.”  that can be found on Fortune.com   

Chuck again:  Well, yes, as long as you decrease deficit spending along with the recession, then you’d have something… A cleaning out of the excesses, and a starting over for the economy…  I’ll take that to go, sir! 

Today’s U.S. data Cupboard has April Factory Orders for our review… I suspect that they will be disappointing at best… We’ll also see the Jobs Openings for April, which will remain above 8 Million… Hiring seems to be stuck at 2016 levels…  Nobody wants to work any longer I guess… 

To recap… The dollar bugs bought up dollars yesterday, and the BBDXY gained 2 index points, but the euro remained well bid above 1.08, and the only currencies showing some weakness are the Petrol Currencies, and that’s because the price of Oil has fallen out of bed! Chuck talks about his days as a bond trader… And gives us proof that the U.S. economy is teetering… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, I hate to do this, but not really, because this is something that everyone should know… This is a very short video of the head of the U.S. Chief economic advisor… you won’t believe what this guy doesn’t know, or how to explain it: Click here: Biden Economic’s Advisor Visibly Struggles to Answer Easy Question (youtube.com)

See? Doesn’t that just give you a nice warm and fuzzy about the people running our economics? NOT! He can’t even explain how the deficit spending gets financed… And he’s the Chief of the economic council? GIVE ME A BREAK! SERENITY NOW!  I’m going to go yell at the walls for a minute to see if that calms me down, be right back…. 

Market Prices 6/5/2024: American Style: A$ .6646, kiwi .6183, C$ .7311, euro 1.0870, sterling 1.2780, Swiss $1.1204, European Style: rand 18.0364, krone 10.5635, SEK 10.4251, forint 360.35, zloty 3.9612, koruna 22.6842, RUB 88.60, yen 156.14, sing 1.3483, HKD 7.8094, INR 83.37, China 7.2474, peso 17.65, BRL 5.2720, BBDXY 1,250.83, Dollar Index 104.31, Oil $73.64, 10-year 4.32%, Silver $29.57, Platinum $996.00, Palladium $953.00, Copper $4.53, and Gold… $2,333.73

That’s it for today…  Sorry for the shortness of the letter today, but when you don’t do your homework, it’s difficult to pass the test! Man oh man, my bumbling, fumbling, stumbling beloved Cardinals… They are not ready for prime time, for sure! Their days of beating up the teams in their division, and then winning the division, are over, for they no longer play the other teams in their division 18 times per team a year!   Well, now I just have to remain not sick, for the next 12 days… Well, actually I would prefer not being sick ever again! Eric Clapton takes us to the finish line today with his song: Let It Rain… I hope you have a Wonder dog Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals rally on Monday
• But get sold overnight…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you!  And Welcome to June! Pfennig Tradition calls for this:  “June is busting out all over, all over the meadows and the hill, buds are busting out of bushes, and  the rompin’ river pushes, Every little wheel that wheels beside a mill! 

We finally held our family celebration for grandson, Braden’s Birthday this past weekend. He turned 13… I thought for a moment and said, “when I was 13 I was in high school”, and everyone looked at me like I was crazy… My beloved Cardinals won 1 of the 3 games with the Phillies… And had to play that stupid, Sunday night game! Stevie Wonder greets me this morning with his song: My Cherie Amour…  

The end of the week last week was interesting in that the data that printed wasn’t dollar friendly, and for once, unfriendly dollar data , saw the dollar get sold…  And going into the weekend the BBDXY had lost 6 index points, to 1,250… Gold ended the week at $2,326, after losing $26 on Friday, and Silver ended the week at $30.38, after losing 73-cents on Friday… 

The price of Oil has seen its level fall out of bed since Thursday last week, and closed yesterday with a $73 handle… First, it was reported that our friends (NOT!) at OPEC were going to extend their output reductions to help the price of OIL… and then it was reported that the knuckleheads at OPEC were going to increase supply… Wait, What? Left the markets confused, and the markets don’t like to be confused… And the 10-year saw its yield drop to 4.41%, to end the week.  

Yesterday, the dollar drifted throughout the day, and remained at 1,250 in the BBDXY as the day closed. Gold gained back the ground it lost on Friday, gaining $24 to close at $2,350.75, and Silver also gained it’s lost ground, by gaining 35-cents to close at $30.73… 

In the overnight markets last night… There was little to no movement in the dollar, and the BBDXY starts today at 1,250…. Gold is getting sold again, what’s up with this up one day, down the next trading pattern? It’s the markets not being able to pick a lane… One day they are convinced the economic data tells them a rate cut is in the cards, and that’s followed by the next day, the markets believing that there will be no rate cut…  The markets are so wishy-washy these days… So, dependent on what the Fed Heads will do… I would think that they are aware by now that whatever the Fed Heads to, it will be the wrong thing to do? Tsk, tsk, markets… 

So, Gold is down $19 to start the day, and Silver is getting the snot kicked out of it, and is down 96-cents to start the day, and has fallen below the $30 figure… UGH!  The short paper traders are really going after Silver this morning… I’ve come to the conclusion that the overall direction of Gold & Silver will be determined by the short paper traders…  So, whether or not Gold goes higher to $3,000 will be determined by the short paper traders…And if it does, the short paper traders will make it seem like it will never happen, drawing out the upward move, just like they’ve done till now… I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil remained down in the $73 handle overnight, and the 10-year dropped some more to 4.36% yield to start our day… So, if the bond boys think the data tells them a rate cut is in the cards, as evidenced by the drop in bond yields, then what’s going on with the metals? Just shows to go ya, that the short paper traders are ruling the roost at the moment, now doesn’t it?  UGH!

Well, the data late last week had a lot to do with the movements in the dollar and metals.. The Big Data print was the PCE…  So, let’s go right to the data prints… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week had the awaited on, PCE inflation calculation, this supposedly is the Fed Heads’ favorite inflation calc… So, here’s the skinny on the report: Inflation rose about as expected in April, with markets on edge over when interest rates might start coming down, according to a measure released Friday that is followed closely by the Federal Reserve.

The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy costs increased just 0.2% for the period, in line with the Dow Jones estimate, the Commerce Department reported.

On an annual basis, core PCE was up 2.8%, or 0.1 percentage point higher than the estimate.

And Wolf Street.com had this to say about the PCE: “Fed’s Wait-and-See on Rate Cuts Supported by Worst 6-Month “Core” & “Core Services” PCE Inflation since mid-2023
Not just housing, but also other core services. However, durable goods inflation is back to normal.”

And Forbes had this headline: “Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve is stuck in a self-defeating paradox that makes cutting rates more difficult, economist warns”

Chuck again… yes, a lot to be said about one report, but since the markets are so tuned to what the reports tell us about what the Fed Heads might or might not do at their next meeting is the main thing right now. 

Well, it’s a good thing the folks at the European Central Bank (ECB ) listened to me (as if!) and didn’t cut rates early, because inflation was falling… You may recall me telling the ECB to not cut because inflation is sticky, and would come back…  Here’s Reuters with the skinny: “Euro zone inflation rose in May, data showed on Friday, in a sign the European Central Bank still faces a slow and uncertain journey to reach its goal of fully reining in prices.”

Now, if only the Bank of Canada will listen to me… They seem to be hell bent and whisky bound to cut rates a few times this year… UGH! 

It was reported last week that the Bank of Japan had spent $62 Billion defending the yen… And for what? to see the yen immediately, go right back to getting sold? And to see the yen fall to 157 once again?  I just don’t get what these Central Banks think they are going to accomplish by wasting reserves… 

In my attempt to bring the news of digital currencies to the forefront, this was in the needtoknow.com site: “CNBC News reports that hundreds of smaller US banks are at risk of failure. There is a war on cash and many businesses are refusing cash. The World Economic Forum (WEF) just held a summit to discuss the banning of physical cash in favor of an all digital currency system. Private bankers have wrested control over money from governments and central bank digital currency gives globalists even more power. COVID helped the push to eliminate cash and established contact lists via vaccine passports. This is all about control and surveillance.”

I find that seeing CNBC actually report this is bringing this news to the masses… I get it, the younger generation doesn’t know how to carry cash, they only know how to charge something on a card… And that’s exactly what the Gov’t wants to see, because they are waning the country off of folding cash… Want to lose the remainders of your liberties? Well, going to digital currencies will do just that, and before you know it, you’ll be asking everyone around you, how that happened? 

There’s nothing we can do about it now… WE The People should have stood up and said, “Don’t take our cash away!” But we didn’t, like the sheeple we’ve been trained to be, we unknowing to us, started using our credit cards to buy everything…   

“Understand this. Things are now in motion that cannot be undone.” — Gandalf the White

The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week also had the Personal Income (+.03%), and Personal Spending (+.02%)… So, spending in the U.S. is down, and that’s not what the Gov’t wants to see, they need those tax receipts to come in hot and heavy, and that’s not happening… 

To recap… The dollar got sold going into the weekend, and then drifted yesterday to start the week. Gold & Silver got sold going into the weekend, and rallied on Monday… So, after 3 trading days, we’re back to where we were mid-week, last week…   Chuck goes into his Gandalf the White impression this morning… 

For What It’s Worth…I found this over the weekend, and thought it to be FWIW worthy… The title of the article is Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve Is Stuck In A Defeating paradox that makes cutting interest rates more difficult, economists warns… And it can be found here: Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve is stuck in a self-defeating paradox, economist warns | Fortune

Or, here’s your snippet:The Federal Reserve has talked financial markets into creating an easier environment, which paradoxically makes lowering rates a more difficult task for the central bank, a top economist said.

The Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index indicates that the availability and cost of credit across money, bond, and equity markets are significantly more favorable today than when the Fed began raising rates in March 2022, according to Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk.

That’s due to the central bank’s pivot in November, when Chairman Jerome Powell signaled that inflation was cooling enough to halt rate hikes and start thinking about when rate cuts could begin.

Wall Street interpreted the comments, incorrectly as it turned out, to mean easing would be imminent and that as many as six cuts would happen in 2024, sparking a massive stock market rally.

Meanwhile, the federal government has been spending trillions of dollars on infrastructure, green-energy initiatives, and semiconductor production capacity.

As a result, the economy has remained strong as this fiscal stimulus continues to fuel growth while easier financial conditions offset Fed rate hikes, Sløk noted.

In fact, the economy was so strong earlier this year that inflation readings came in above forecasts and showed signs of reaccelerating. That forced Powell to warn that rates could stay high for “as long as needed” because inflation appeared to be taking longer than anticipated to reach the Fed’s 2% target.

Still, he later acknowledged that further rate increases were unlikely and reaffirmed that the Fed’s next move—whenever that will be—is likely a rate cut.

And that’s precisely the mistake Powell is making, in Sløk’s view.

“Looking ahead, with the stock market hitting fresh all-time highs and fiscal policy still supportive, the expectation in markets should be that the economy will continue to accelerate over the coming quarters,” he wrote. “You can call this the Fed Cut Reflexivity Paradox: The more the Fed insists that the next move in interest rates is a cut, the more financial conditions will ease, making it more difficult for the Fed to cut.” 

Chuck again… I thought I would give you the majority of that article, because it tells you the story that I’ve been telling you, that interest rates can’t be cut, because inflation is still raging… And if they are cut, then we might as well kiss our dollar strength away… I’m just saying

Market Prices 6/ 3/ 2024: American Style: A$ .6644, kiwi .6169, C$ .7312, euro 1.0866, sterling 1.2765, Swiss $1.1200, European Style: rand 18.6661, krone 10.5773, SEK 10.4617, forint 361.12, zloty 3.9594, koruna 22.7243, RUB 86.96, yen 154.80, sing 1.3470, HKD 7.8142, INR 83.53, China 7.2378, peso 17.90, BRL 5.2811, BBDXY 1,250, Dollar Index 104.24, Oil $73.02, 10-year 4.36%, Silver $29.76, Platinum $1,008.00, Palladium $96.90, Copper $4.57, and Gold… $2,331.10

That’s it for today… my oncologist was upset with me yesterday, at first, as the scale reported that I had lost 10 lbs in 3 weeks… But when I told her that my wife had been sick, and not cooking dinners for me, she calmed down… Losing weight is ok with her, not just so fast! That indicates something is awry… All the blood work looked good, and now I’m on my new chemo… I’m somewhat worried about how I’ll tolerate this one… I hope my worries are for naught! Sniff N’ The Tears, take us to the finish line today with their song: Driver’s Seat…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please oh please, with sugar on top, Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler