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• Currencies rally on Friday, and in the overnight markets last night…
• Heard of the Sahm Rule? Well, you will now!

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, the temps backed off from their searing high levels this past weekend here in the MidWest…  I had told my water hole buddies that it had been hotter here, than in S. Florida…  Things sure were hot in Chicago this past weekend for the Cardinals’ rival Cubs, as they took 3 of 4 games from the Cardinals, and quite frankly should have swept, my beloved team… I’m still not 100% recovered from my episode in the ER two weeks ago… They had to give me 3 units (bags) of blood, and even still my blood level was just barely above the minimum level… I get so darn tired so easily… But, I am getting stronger every day, so there’s that! Steely Dan greets me this morning with their song: Don’t Take Me Alive… 

Well, the BIG NEWS from last Friday, was the Jobs Jamboree… Which actually fell in line with the ADP Employment Report, which you may recall printed at 122,000 jobs created in July… The BLS came in with a print of 114,000 jobs created in July, and for once in a Blue Moon, the two reports lined up.  But here’s the BIG Difference… The BLS had to add 246,000 jobs out of thin air to get to 114,000…  So, the way Chuck looks at jobs in the U.S., July had a negative 360,000 jobs for the month… The Unemployment Rate rose to 4.3%, and had economists all running for the hills, as they now claim that the U.S. economy is heading to a recession…  Well, in my opinion, bring it on! It’s about time we had a cleaning out of the excesses!  

So, the dollar got taken to the woodshed on Friday…  First of all, on Wednesday last week we saw a weakening of the dollar, as it lost 9 index point in the BBDXY,  but then on Thursday, the dollar rebounded a bit, gaining 4 index points… But after the Jobs Report printed, the dollar got sent directly to the woodshed, and was not a allowed to pass Go or collect $200… The BBDXY showed a loss of 9 index points on Friday, as it ended the week at 1,249… 

I’ll point this out again, because it’s important to remember the beginnings of a trend…  The BBDXY on July 2nd, just a month ago, was 1,271…   So, that’s 21 index points during the last 30 days…  Time for the PPT to come out with both guns blazing, and buy dollars, don’t you think? I say that because every darn time the dollar has been perched on the edge of the cliff, the PPT comes in and buys dollars, and all the momentum that was in the currencies and metals favor is washed away… I’ve always contended that the PPT’s (Exchange Stabilization Fund) didn’t have a bottomless pit, and that the funds would dry up sooner or later… Maybe, just maybe, cause you never know, this is the time that the ESF has dried up…   

Gold & Sliver had and interesting day on Friday…  Here’s Ed Steer with his view on what happened with Gold & Siver on Friday: “It was more than obvious that the collusive commercial shorts knew what the non-farm payroll number was in advance — and they were on the precious metals in Globex trading overseas even before the number came out at 8:30 a.m. in New York.

It was full-on battle stations for them once that number hit the street — and even then, with the DXY in the dumpster, they were having problems. But, regardless of that, they really put the hammer down at 10:25 a.m. — and through sheer brute force [as the volumes indicated] did whatever it took to prevent those running from all things paper, into all things precious metal.

But both gold and silver came roaring back after their engineered 11:15 a.m. EDT low ticks were in — and it was patently obvious that ‘da boyz’ had to step in on more than one occasion after that to prevent both from running away to the upside once again.”

Chuck again… Ed always has his finger on the pulse of who he calls “da boyz”…  and their antics… You can find Ed here: www.edsteergoldsilver.com

You know me, I don’t like starting the letter with a data print, but Friday’s Jobs Jamboree had such an affect on the markets, that I had no other choice today… Stocks got taken to the woodshed too, and that was strange given that the jobs report just about sealed the idea that the Fed Heads will cut rates at their next meeting in Sept. The idea behind the selloff in stocks was the U.S. economy is heading to a recession… And historically, stocks do not perform well in a recession…   

The price of Oil had a rotten two-day performance… When I left you on Thursday morning, the price of Oil had a $78 handle…  Well, apparently, the lack of demand for Oil, is weighing heavily on Texas Tea, Black Gold… On Thursday Oil lost $2 and on Friday it lost $3, to end the week trading with a $73 handle…  The war risks are being outweighed right now with the lack of demand… I find that to be quite interesting… 

And the 10-year’s yield is still being marked downward, with all the buying of the 10-year, in anticipation of a rate cut, the yield on the 10-year ended the week at 3.79%…   It wasn’t that long ago that the 10-year’s yield was around 4.60%… So, that’s quite a drop in the yield, and rise in the price of the bond.

In the overnight markets last night… Well, the short paper traders came out the wallboard where they reside, and scattered around the kitchen floor, with their arms full of short paper trades already this morning, and gold has lost $75 to start the day / week today… Silver is down $1.95 to start the day/ week, and the dollar is getting trampled on otherwise Gold’s loss would be around $91 this morning… The Dollar Index has fallen to 102 handle, and the BBDXY is down big this morning… The euro, the offset to the dollar, continues to climb in the 1.09 handle, and the Swiss franc is kicking tail and taking names later, as a flight to save havens is soaring… I couldn’t believe my eye, this morning when I wrote down the franc price (1.18), and then the Japanese yen (142), thus confirming my suspicion that safe haven buying is going on…  The trap door has been sprung on the Aussie dollar (A$), and my friend, Bob, that lives down under, tells me that traders have gone sour on the A$… And it shows! 

The poor Norwegian krone, getting yanked one direction and then another… Early last week the krone was receiving the double whammy, with no jokers, from the rising euro and the stronger price of Oil… The krone had rallied from above 11 to a 10 handle… But then the price of Oil fell out of bed, and there went one of the props for the krone, and it’s back to above 11 this morning… 

And what’s going on with the honker and renminbi? These two currencies showed that they rallied BIG TIME overnight, and I can’t find anything on the reason… So, more on these two tomorrow!

Speaking of Oil… The price of Oil remained trading with a $72 handle last night… And the 10-year’s yield continued to drop as it trades this morning with a 3 .67% yield…  I get it, the Fed Heads have a 1005 change of cutting rates at their next meeting, and so bond buyers are just getting out ahead of the Fed heads… But by this much?  What happens if, like I described previously, if the Fed Heads cut rates and inflation comes back with a vengeance, like it did to Fed Chairman, Volcker back in the early 80’s… Yes, after hiking rates to 20%, and inflation started to abate, Volcker cut rates too soon, and when inflation proved it was sticky, and came back strong, he had to reverse is rate cut and hike rates again…  The bonds were whipsawed, and early buyers of bonds got their rear ends handed to them… I’m just saying… What if?

Well, last week there were 3 Central Bank meetings, and 2 of them were done by Thursday… And then on Thursday, the Bank of England met, and decided to cut rates 25 Basis Points (1/4%) to 5.00%…  The Pound sterling got taken to the woodshed on Thursday following the rate announcement, but fought back on Friday to end the week at 1.28… Of course, just about every currency on the market rallied on Friday, with the dollar getting taken to the woodshed…   I mean, just look at the Japanese yen… The yen ended the week trading 146.50, you’ve come a long way baby, from where you were a month ago! 

The euro is back above 1.09, and the Eurozone received some inflation news last week that will most likely keep rates unchanged here… Inflation was 2.6% higher than the previous month, and once again it proves my point that inflation is sticky…  

Circling back to the BOE’s rate cut…  In my mind, that about seals the deal on the Fed Heads cutting rates in Sept, because the two Central Banks like to work in harmony… I’m just saying… 

So, what we have now is recession fears greater than ever, a forthcoming rate cut, and Gold ready to take advantage of both… Got Gold? 

And have you heard about the Sahm Rule?  Well, the U.S. economy triggered the Sahm Rule that predicts a recession…  here’s the skinny on the Sahm Rule: the Sahm rule signals a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points or more, relative to its low during the previous 12 months. The Sahm rule is not a forecast, nor does it trigger before there’s a recession.  The with the Unemployment rates rising, and that triggered a move in the current rate of the Sahm Rule… The current Sahm Rule reading is 0.53%, according to Fed data, having surged from 0.43%…  And that .53% is the Sahm Rue going into its recession warning mode…   

The U.S. Data Cupboard last week didn’t leave anyone feeling warm and fuzzy… U.S. Factory Orders plunged 3.3% MoM in June (the biggest MoM drop since COVID lock-downs), dragging orders down 3.6% YoY (also the worst since COVID lock-downs)… And…The final durable goods orders print was worse than the initial – down a shocking 6.7% MoM…   longtime readers know that I only really look at “real economic data prints”… And these two qualify under that heading for sure!  The economy is quaking folks… There’s no two ways to look at it… So, what will you do to offset the coming recession…  Again, I ask, Got Gold?

Speaking of Gold…  here’s the latest from Gold.org… “The World Gold Council’s Q2 2024 Gold Demand Trends report reveals that total global gold demand increased 4% year-on-year to 1,258t, marking the strongest Q2 in our data series1. Total demand was supported by healthy over-the-counter (OTC2) transactions, up a notable 53% year-on-year at 329t.

Increased OTC demand, continued buying from central banks, and a slowdown in ETF outflows drove record-high gold prices in Q2. The gold price averaged US$2,338/oz, 18% higher year-on-year, reaching a record of US$2,427/oz during the quarter.”

Chuck again… The U.S. Data Cupboard doesn’t have much for us to look at this week… Really, there’s not much, and one has to wonder if the powers that be, have it that way, to put some time and space between last week’s bad data prints, and what’s coming?  I wouldn’t put it past them to pull something like that off…  I’m just saying… 

To recap… The Jobs Jamboree last Friday, was awful, and if all was counted correctly, it would have been really awful! The dollar got taken to the woodshed on Friday after the Jobs print, and now economists are calling for a recession in the U.S. economy… Of course, Chuck says, bring it on!  Gold & Silver were subjected to short paper trading on Friday,  and Chuck wonders if the PPT’s ESF has run dry?

For What It’s Worth… Well, I came across this article last week, and then lost it! I had to search and search to find it again. I did so, because this is a famed economist claiming the Fed manipulates Treasuries, and it can be found here: Veteran economist accuses Treasury of manipulating bond market (yahoo.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “Some Republican politicians see a conspiracy in the Treasury’s recent handling of auctions, a conspiracy to keep long-term rates low and thus stimulate the economy.

And they accuse the Treasury of keeping short-term rates high to put money into consumers’ pockets.

Famed economist Nouriel Roubini (known as Dr. Doom for his dire economic forecasts) and Stephen Miran, a Treasury official under President Donald Trump, have now accused the Treasury of improperly manipulating debt auctions in a recent commentary published by money manager Hudson Bay Capital, where both have positions.

Related: With Fed set to cut rates, this money move may pay off

“By adjusting the maturity profile of its debt issuance, Treasury is dynamically managing financial conditions and through them, the economy,” the duo wrote.

That is “usurping core functions of the Federal Reserve,” they said. “We dub this novel tool activist Treasury issuance (ATI). By manipulating the amount of interest rate-risk owned by investors, ATI works through the same channels as the Fed’s quantitative easing programs.”

Chuck again… Of course there’s a lot more to this article, so to read more, click the link above. But remember when I used to say that the Fed Heads manipulated Treasuries? Well, it’s come full circle now… 

Market Pirces 8/5/2024: American Style: A$.6437, kiwi .5934, C$ .7227, euro 1.0968, sterling 1.2752, Swiss $1.1830, European Style: rand 18.6229, krone 11.0537, SEK 10.5224, forint 363.37, zloty 3.9347, koruna 23.0632, RUB 85.00, yen 142.50, sing 1.3299, HKD 7.7779, INR 83.34, China 7.1177, peso 19.07, BRL 5.8056, BBDXY , Dollar Index 102.39, Oil $72.40, 10-year 3.67%, Silver $26,60, Platinum $931.00, Palladium $836.00, Copper $3.94, and Gold… $2,267.97

That’s it for today, except to say GREAT BIG HAPPY BIRTHDAY that was yesterday, to my darling granddaughter, Delaney Grace… Can you believe this one… She turned 17! When she was a very young girl, I was in Vancouver, and had just received pictures that her mom had taken of her, and of course I was the proud Grandfather, and showed them to anyone that visited our booth! Delaney Grace, has grown into a beautiful young lady, and I’m sure her dad has to keep the boys at bay… The only sad thing about this is that every year I’m reminded of when I was diagnosed with Stage 4 cancer… 17 years ago!  Little Evie has taken Delaney’s place as the “little girl” of the family, but Delaney will always be MY Little d! I have to finish up here and get ready to go see my oncologist today at noon… I have a lot to talk about with her at this appt. Micael Franti & Spearhead take us to the finish line today with his one=hit song: Say Hey ! (I Love You)  I saw this band open up for Carlos Santana a few years ago, when Michael’s song was a hit… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals rally on Wednesday after Powell speaks…
• The BOJ hikes rates and yen rallies

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! And Welcome to August! The traditional “dog days of summer” month… Well, the best laid plans of mice and men, was what I was thinking about yesterday, when we sat in the West Palm Beach Airport for near 2 hours waiting for a departure… Surely, we would miss our connection in Atlanta, due to the tardiness of our initial flight… But  Our connection was delayed enough that we made the flight, and got home very late last night… So, I’m really draggin’ the line (The Shondells) this morning… My beloved Cardinals came out swinging VS Texas the last two games, winning both by a wide margin! The Cardinals now go to Wrigley for a 4-game set VS the Cubs…   

Well, 2 down 1 to go… The Big 3 Central Bank Meetings this week, saw the Bank of Japan (BOJ) hike rates 25 Basis Points (don’t get all giddy about that yet), and the U.S. FOMC held rates steady Eddie… The Bank of England (BOE ) will be meeting right now while my fat fingers type away this morning…   It was the tale of two Central Banks yesterday, with the BOJ saying that they would entertain more rate hikes if inflation continues to rise, while Jerome Powell, chief el jefe, of the FOMC said that the Fed Heads would entertain a rate cut, if inflation goes down more… So, he left the door open there folks, because given what he’s already said about how the Fed Heads were ready to cut rates even if their 2% inflation target wasn’t met, now he’s wedging in another hint that they are ready to cut rates now, because if inflation drops by .1%, he can point to his previous statement about how they would cut rates if inflation goes down more… 

Never mind that a .1% drop could be a rounding error… Powell, also said that if the time to cut rates arrived before the election, that “adjusting for Trump and Harris policies ‘a line we would never cross”… To that I say balderdash! Hogwash! Liar, liar pants on fire!   Powell has lied to us before, so why would this be any different?

So… Gold & Silver liked what Powell had to say… Bonds liked what Powell had to say… Stocks liked what Powell had to say, The price of Oil, oh you get the drift, and guess who didn’t like to hear what Powell had to say?  The dollar!  Holy Cow, I head myself saying when I saw the move in the BBDXY yesterday and said to myself. “Are we finally going to get back to fundamentals?”

So, for those of you keeping score at home… Gold gained $ 37, to close at $2,447.70, and Silver59-cents,  to close at $29.05… The price of Oil ended the day with a $78 handle, and the 10-year’s yield fell to 4.06% (from 4.17% the previous day)..  Remember, in bond pricing, as the yield goes down, the price of the bond goes up… . And vice versa… 

The BBDXY lost 7 index points yesterday… But to me this has sell off has been building up steam, as the BBDXY was 1,269 just last week, before the small selling of the dollar began, in anticipation of a loose lips FOMC… During WWII, there was a saying that “loose lips, sink ships”, and yesterday’s loose lips sank the dollar… 

In the overnight markets last night… Well, I guess the foreign markets all thought that the selling of the dollar was overdone, because they bought dollars and brought the BBDXY up 3 index points this morning… Gold is down $2 to start the day today, and Silver has given back 18-cents of its gains yesterday…  I’m very scared here folks… And I’ll tell you why… Any time in the past, when Gold & Silver start the day in the red, it gives the short paper traders an opportunity to sell the metals short under the cover of darkness…  So, get ready for the takedown… Or, maybe, just maybe cause you never know, Gold & Silver will turnaround those early losses today!   There I like being optimistic better than being old gloom and doom, Chuck… 

The price of Oil remained in the $78 handle overnight, and the 10-year saw its yield drop a bit more to 4.04%… 

You know, it occurred to me yesterday, while waiting for over 2 hours for our plane to take to board… That if it weren’t for the full of lies, inflation reports, the Fed Head wouldn’t be able to talk about rate cuts…  All these years that I’ve pointed out that the inflation reports are bogus, massaged, and cooked., I guess it never occurred to me that the Gov’t’s lies, would bring us to this point, where the Fed Heads are ready to cut rates, and inflation hasn’t gone anywhere, it’s still here, the prices that went up, have not come down have they?  Your grocery bill is still outrageous, isn’t it? And so on… 

Well, the Japanese yen is really on the rally tracks this morning, after the BOJ’s rate hike… And another currency that is firmly on the rally tracks this morning is the Swiss franc… The franc has always been a “safe haven currency”, and the reports this morning are not good for World Peace, as there are reports that Iran is going to make a retaliatory strike against Israel… That whole mess over there in the Middle East, is like a box of tinder, and waiting for a spark to light it, and this strike by Iran could be the spark, I’m just saying… 

And if they do retaliate, then back up the truck for the save haven currencies, of francs, euros, sterling, yen, and while you’re backing up be sure to grab some Gold… 

The price of Oil is really reacting to the retaliation news, and that has the Petrol Currencies looking a bit better this morning… The Norwegian krone, Russian ruble, Brazilian real, Canadian loon, British pound sterling, and Mexican peso to name a few Petrol Currencies are looking healthier for sure! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the ADP Employment Report for July…  Again, I feel that the ADP Employment Report should be used as the nation’s employment data/ report… Instead of the hedonically adjusted BLS crock of dookie…   And yesterday’s ADP report showed that the hiring in July slowed to just 122,000…   And circling the wagons back to Tuesday, I told you that the STUPID Consumer Confidence report would show the pulse of the stock market in July, and apparently, the goofuses that were polled thought stocks were strong, because the Confidence index rose from 97.8 to 100.2…   I swear, I would love to get one on one with someone that is that confident…    The other report that we talked about on Tuesday was the Case/ Shiller Home Price Index, and the HPI showed that house prices fell, in May… This report has showed that home prices have steadily dropped for some time now… 

To recap… The BOJ hiked rates, and the FOMC said that they were ready to cut rates, and that sent the markets into a tizzy… Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, metals, Energy all rallied BIG TIME yesterday, with only the dollar getting punished for the FOMC’s loose lips… There are reports this morning that Iran is preparing for a retaliation against Israel… Chuck thinks that if that happens the tinder box that is the Middle East will receive a spark and all hell will break loose… Got Gold?

For What It’s Worth… Well, we made it here, so far… $35 Trillion in current debt… Whooopeee! (not!) This article talks about this and how it effects our future, and it can be found here: This Is What The Final Stages Of A Bubble Economy Look Like Just Before A Collapse Happens | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “How does it feel to be living on the edge of a bubble just before it bursts?  Ever since the days of the Great Recession, our leaders have been going to extremes that we have never seen before as they attempt to keep our failing economy propped up.  The Federal Reserve has created trillions upon trillions of dollars out of thin air and pumped it into the financial system.  Our politicians in Washington have been on the greatest debt binge in the history of the world, and as a result our national debt has soared to truly horrifying levels.

On Monday, our national debt reached 35 trillion dollars, and even the New York Times is admitting that it is growing “more quickly than many economists had predicted”…

America’s gross national debt topped $35 trillion for the first time on Monday, a reminder of the nation’s grim fiscal predicament as legislative fights over taxes and spending initiatives loom in Washington.

The Treasury Department noted the milestone in its daily report detailing the nation’s balance sheet. The red ink is mounting in the United States more quickly than many economists had predicted as the costs of federal programs enacted in recent years have exceeded initial projections.

To mark this milestone, the House Budget Committee released some numbers about how rapidly our debt has been growing over the last 12 months…

$196 billion in new debt per month

$6.4 billion in new debt per day

$268 million in new debt per hour

$4.5 million in new debt per minute

$74,401 in new debt per second

The third number in that list really stands out to me.

268 million dollars is being stolen from future generations of Americans every single hour of every single day, and hardly anyone seems to care.

We are literally committing national suicide.

When a government borrows money which must be paid back later, prosperity in the future is being sacrificed for more prosperity in the present.”

Chuck again… Well for 31 years now, I’ve warned anyone that wanted to pay attention to me that the growing debt was going to be a real problem for us, our financial system,  and the dollar in the years to come…  Maybe, just maybe, cause you never know, $35 Trillion isn’t the figure that will be the straw that breaks the U.S.’s back, but, we’re on our way there, and there’s no turning back now… The time to turn back was during the Bush II years…  I’m just saying… 

Market prices 8/1/2024: American Style: A$ .6545, kiwi .5953, C$ 7236, euro 1.0792, Sterling 1.2807, Swiss $1.1416, European Style: rand 18.1957, krone 10.8733, SEK 10.5544,  forint 366.91, zloty 3.9912, koruna 23.5857, RUB 85.86, yen 150.80, sing 1.3376, HKD 7.8149, INR 83.72, China 7.2476, peso 18.56, BRL 5.6762, BBDXY 1,256.00, Dollar Index 104.36, Oil $78.24, 10-year 4.04%, Silver $28.88, Platinum $973.00, Palladium $929.00, Copper $4.13, and Gold… $2,445.40

That’s it for today, and this week… Cards and Cubs this weekend, this historically has been one of the best rivalries in baseball… I sure hope the Cardinals’ found bats continue to hit this weekend… You know, in our “flood” last summer my writing desk was ruined, but all my pictures were saved, but packed away until I get a new writing desk… I have a makeshift desk now, not one that I enjoy writing at, etc. and no pictures… Darling Daughter Dawn, make me a collage of pictures with me and my grandkids on a poster board, and so that’s what I have to look at now… There’s one of me reading T’was The Night Before Christmas to little Evie, while the 3 other grand kids all are around me peeking over my shoulder… Love it!  Faces take us to the finish line today with their great 70’s song: Ooh La la…. C’mon you don’t know that one? As soon as the song starts, you’ll give yourself a V8 head slap and say, I know it now!  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please Be Good To Yourself…

Chuck Butler

• Gold & Silver get taken down once again on Monday
• What did LBJ say in 1965?

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, let me get this out front and center this morning, so I don’t forget to mention it… No Pfennig tomorrow… It’s a travel day for yours truly, as I head back to my home in my little river town… My beloved Cardinals traded away a fan favorite yesterday, Tommy Edman… Maybe the GM, Mo, read the Pfennig yesterday! HA! As If! And… The Cardinals lost their game with Texas last night… Home field advantage isn’t what it used to be in baseball, that’s for sure! I continue to feel better each day, and after visiting the GI doctor’s office yesterday, they reminded me hat I was so low on blood, that it would take me some time to recover my strength… The band, Spirit, greets me this morning with their song, that I take personally, as it relates to me and my cancer discovery: It’s Nature’s Way… 

The dollar continued to gain yesterday, after Friday’s brief drop that looked to be at the time a deeper selloff than it proved to be, the dollar hasn’t looked back… The BBDXY gained 3 index points total yesterday, and thus pushed the currencies deeper into a funk… Like I said the other day, it’s time to batten down the hatches, until there’s a break in the dollar buying, and then and only then should you look to buy more currencies at cheaper prices…  I’ve been reading articles, that I’m sure you’ve probably have at least seen the headlines to, that talk about how a Trump presidency would bring about a weaker dollar, and stronger Gold price… The point to his economic policies… Now, I’m not one to get into politics in this letter, so I’ll leave that as it may… I only brought it up because of the dollar implications… 

The price of Gold, which started the week up $4 yesterday morning saw that gain fade and then go into the red even deeper on the day… .in the end, Gold lost $7.10 on the day to close at 2,384.70… Silver had also started the week on a positive note, only to see that gain be wiped out and Silver ended the day in the red by 8-cents to close at $27.92…   I came across an article about Silver manipulation that I took a snippet from… Here you go…

“The roots of silver market manipulation may go deeper than JPMorgan Chase. The U.S. government has been implicated in controlling silver prices since 1965, when President Lyndon Johnson signed the Coinage Act, removing silver from U.S. coinage. Johnson explicitly warned against hoarding silver, asserting the Treasury would maintain control over its price. Despite this, silver coins were hoarded, and their value soared with inflation.

“If anybody has any idea of hoarding our silver coins, let me say this. Treasury has a lot of silver on hand, and it can be, and it will be used to keep the price of silver in line with its value in our present silver coin. There will be no profit in holding them out of circulation for the value of their silver content.” 

President Lyndon Johnson, 23rd July, 1965.

Chuck again… Recall, if you will, in the past, when I named the U.S. Gov’t behind the manipulation of Silver and Gold… Well, if this little comment by President Johnson in 1965 doesn’t seal the fate of that accusation then I don’t know what does…  I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil fell another buck yesterday and closed the day trading with a $75 handle… And the 10-year’s yield, closed the day yesterday with 4.18% yield, up 2 basis points from Friday’s close… 

In the overnight markets last night… There was little to no movement in the dollar, so the BBDXY start the day today at $1,260… And elevated level for the dollar, given the winds of change (Scorpions) that the dollar faces every day…  Gold is up $7 to start the day today, but what good is that with the short paper traders showing that they are not finished with their takedown of the metals… Silver is up a nickel to start the day…

The price of Oil is still trading with a $75 handle this morning, and the 10-year’s yield is steady at 4.17%…

What I saw in the markets yesterday, and last night, and so far this morning, is “tentativeness”… And with theses unknowns of what the 3 Big Central Banks will do this week, traders are tentative in their trading right now… Oil can’t find a bid, the 10-year’s yield is range bound, Gold & Silver can’t get past the short paper traders, and so forth… I hope we can get through this week without chaos in the markets… But it’s there, and all pent up, and ready to be released… I’m just saying

The Bank of Japan begins their two-day meeting today… I have to think that they are just like their brothers here in the FOMC, in that in these two-day meetings they get so bored that they have to get the board games out and play to pass the time…   Since Japan is so far ahead of us in time of day, we’ll know what the BOJ did tomorrow morning, but since I won’t be writing tomorrow, you’ll have to come back on our Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to read what I have to say about everything so far, because the FOMC meets tomorrow, so their result will also be known… Crazy (Patsy Cline) eh?

I received some good health news yesterday, while visiting the GI doc that tended to me while I was in the hospital last week… He told me that the samples of the Ulcer in my stomach were void of any virus, or cancer or any other dastardly thing that could cause me a lifetime of problems… So, there’s that… Just wanted to share that with you… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday was bare, and today’s cupboard has just the Case/Shiller Home Price Index (HPI) for May (I know this data is always so stale) and I expect the HPI to show a drop in home prices… And to me that’s a good thing for the economy, as long as the drops are not HUGE!   The other piece of data today is the STUPID Consumer Confidence for this month…  This report is nothing more than a taking of the pulse of the stock market, and since stocks haven’t had their best month of the year in July, we should see some weakness in the report… 

Since I won’t be writing tomorrow, let’s go through the Data Cupboard’s items for tomorrow… First there will the ADP Employment Report for July…  If I’ve said this once, I’ve said it at least 25 times, and that is I believe the ADP should be the real employment report that the markets use instead of the hedonically adjusted BLS report… We will also the first quarter Employment Cost Index… A little late, but still an interesting data print… Have wages increased? I guess we’ll see…  And then the FOMC meeting will take place and their rate decision will be announced, along with a press conference with Head Fed Head, Jerome Powell… 

To recap… The dollar continues to push higher, and thus pushing the currencies down… There are two currencies that continue to fight the dollar, and they are the Russian ruble, and British pound sterling… The rest of the currencies just succumb to the dollar’s pressure…  3 of the 4 Big Central Banks will meet this week to discuss rates… the BOJ is the questionable Central Bank in Chuck’s mind…  And Chuck shows us something from 1965, that proves the Gov’t is behind the manipulation of the metals…  What? You missed that? you had better go back and reread today’s letter! HA!

For What It’s Worth… Well, longtime readers will recognize the article’s author, as someone that I’ve quoted for years now… He once went under a different name, Koos Jansen… But now goes as: Jan Nieuwenhuijs, and you can find his article about Central Bank Gold buying here: Chinese Central Bank (PBoC) Did Not Stop Buying Gold in May (gainesvillecoins.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “This article is an analysis of how the Chinese central bank (PBoC) buys gold in London from Western bullion banks. Because the bullion banks take care of the gold transport for the PBoC, the shipments from London to Beijing are disclosed in UK customs data. The customs data reveals that the PBoC continued to buy gold in May—when it communicated to the market it discontinued buying—at a rate of 53 tonnes. The PBoC stated it stopped buying to dampen the gold price so it could acquire more gold.

Several months ago, I discovered that supply in the Chinese gold market was outstripping demand. During my investigation of this anomaly, I found circumstantial evidence that led me to conclude the surplus is imported in 400-ounce bars from the United Kingdom, and surreptitiously procured by the PBoC.

Let’s go through some of the mechanics of the global gold market before we can stitch it all together.

PBoC Gold Buying Hidden in Plain Sight

In global customs data—officially called International Merchandise Trade Statistics (IMTS)—all gold disclosed is “non-monetary,” meaning not owned by a monetary authority such as a central bank. In the United Nations IMTS rulebook it reads that customs data excludes monetary gold:

Since monetary gold is treated as a financial asset rather than a good, transactions pertaining to it should be excluded from international merchandise trade statistics.

Though, someone familiar with the matter but who prefers to stay anonymous, shared with me that gold import and export data can relate to monetary gold. Commonly, central banks will buy gold from Western bullion banks that arrange transportation and insurance of the metal. The moment these banks ship the gold from the UK it is thus non-monetary bullion, but when it arrives in China it is monetized (changes ownership) and brought to vaults of the central bank, supposedly in Beijing.”

Chuck again… This is a very long article, so if you want to know more, click on the link above…  Before I head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to point out something regarding Central Bank Gold buying…  I’ve said this before, and that is that if Central Banks are lining up to buy physical Gold, what does that tell you about how nervous they are about the future?   I’m just saying…

Market Prices 7/30/2024: American Style: A$.6542, kiwi .5893, C$.7222, euro 1.0834, sterling 1.2858, 

Swiss $1.1290, European Style: rand 18.3145, krone 10.9620, SEK 10.7962, forint 364.62, zloty 3.9523, koruna 23.4575, RUB 86.49, yen 154.77, sing 1.3439, HKD 7.8115, INR 83.72, China 7.2510, peso 18.62, BRL 5.660, BBDXY 1,260.67, Dollar Index 104.54, Oil $75.73, 10-year 4.17%, Silver $27.91, Platinum $957.00, Palladium $908.00, Copper $4.05, and Gold…. $2,391.95

That’s it for today… And tomorrow, but I’ll be back in the saddle on Thursday morning, as long as the Creek don’t rise… And in this case, I do mean the creek, and not the Indians… The creek behind my property and near to my house, rises very quickly when we get lots of rain… And with the reports I’ve received from home about rainy days lately, I’m suspecting the creek to be at a high level upon my return… That’s not a Big Deal to me, as long as it stays in its bed, and doesn’t flood… We’ve had such beautiful days down here this trip… And the ocean has been quite calm, which is always a delight to the swimmers… I still have a lump in my elbow area where an IV was inserted almost two weeks ago… And the lump is quite sensitive to touch… UGH!  At least all the bruising around the area has abated… The Stylistics take us to the finish line today with their one hit wonder song: Betcha By Golly Wow… A real slow dancing song… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and a Wonderful Wednesday tomorrow, and will continue to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Gold & Silver rally on Friday to end the week
• Isn’t life Strange?

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, after 10 days, oldest son Andrew, and his lovely family went back home yesterday… Our place here on the beach, will be quite quiet, now that little Miss Evie is no longer here… She’s so darn cute, you wouldn’t believe how well she converses with everyone, at 4 years old…  I’m still not 100% recovered from last weekend’s trip to the ER, but I’m feeling stronger ever day (Chicago)… Kathy and me, switched places at the hospital, and that’s all I have to say about that…  My beloved Cardinals need a change in their locker room, do you hear me Mr. Mo?  The Ozark Mountain Daredevils greet me this morning with their song: Jackie Blue

Well, Friday was the day that the markets had been waiting for all week, as the June PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) printed… And the markets got disappointed, because the PCE didn’t show that inflation had budged one iota, and therefore, lessening the chances of a Rate Cut this week, when the FOMC Meets… The PCE for those of you keeping score at home, was 2.5%… Core PCE was 2.6%… So… As I keep telling you , inflation is sticky, and not going away just yet… 

The dollar saw some selling on Friday, and then suddenly it was back to where it started the day… The BBDXY started the day, Friday, at 1.257.48, and fell to 1.254 around noon, and then suddenly it was back to 1,257.08 to end the day and week…  The euro remained below 1.09, but with the European Central Bank’s (ECB ) last meeting not producing a rate cut as most observers thought they would see from them, the euro is free to move about the country and I wouldn’t be surprised if it climbed back to 1.09 soon… 

The Japanese yen has seen a crazy rally VS the dollar in recent trading days… I talked about this last week, and said that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) was going to meet this week, and the currency guys and gals all think that the BOJ will hike rates… But as I said last week, all that could be thrown to the wolves if the BOJ disappoints and keeps their powder dry… I’m of the thought that historically, the BOJ is known to disappoint, so there’s that… 

Gold, after getting whacked on Thursday by the short paper traders, saw a rebound on Friday, and gained $23.70, to end the week at $2,387.10…  Silver also went through the gauntlet on Thursday, but rallied a bit, on Friday, gaining 8-cents, to end the week at $28.00…  Imagine (John Lennon) if you will where these two metals would be in price, if it weren’t for the short paper traders…  I’m just saying…

The price of Oil lost a buck on Friday, and ended the week trading with a $77 handle…  It was the worst performance week for the price of Oil since May…  And the 10-year’s yield saw it rise to 4.25% early last week, and then saw it lose all its gains in the week, to end the week at 4.20%…  I’ve said this before, I’ve lost all understanding of what the bond boys are thinking these days…  

In the overnight markets last night…The dollar got bought again with the BBDXY gaining more than 1 index point to start the week at 1,258.40… The currencies all look like they need a rescue plan… With the dollar soaring once again, and here’s where I just don’t get what happened on Friday, with the dollar losing ground, until it wasn’t… What happened to cause this turnaround? Or was it simply the PPT spending some of their Exchange Stabilization Funds to buy dollars and protect it once again from a steep slide? So, with the dollar soaring again, you have to step back, go down the chute and batten the hatches, because this could last a while… 

Gold is up to start the week $4 worth… And Silver is up 12-cents to start the week… The price of Oil fell another buck overnight and trades with a $76 handle this morning, while the 10-year continues to lose yield, from all the buying and it sits at 4.16% this morning… 

If the markets are so sold on the Fed Heads cutting interest rates, then why is the dollar soaring? When you cut interest rates, you debase the currency, it’s that simple… But, we live in a world of opposites… Bad economic data causes the dollar to rally..  interest rate cuts don’t damage the currency…  It’s all backwards to how I was taught the markets worked… When did this start? Well it started coming into play around 10 years ago… That’s from my recollection, that is… I get why stocks rally with interest rate cuts, as they don’t have to compete with high yielding deposit accounts, but the dollar?  Isn’t life strange (Moody Blues) a touch of a turn of a page…  

Well, the FOMC meets this week, on Wednesday… I doubt they will cut rates this week, but they could… They’ve already gone on record as saying that “they will entertain rate cuts even if their target inflation rate is still above 2%” So, there’s that!

The Bank of Japan meets this week, along with the Bank of England (BOE) and the Fed Heads… So, this could be a very interesting week, or it could turn out to be a dud…  I expect the BOJ to hike rates, and for the BOE And Fed Heads to keep their powder dry… I guess we’ll see… eh?

This will be short-n-sweet this morning, as I’ve got to get out the door to the doctor’s office who treated me when I was in the hospital last week, it’s just a follow up, but still, I made the appt, and I’ll keep it! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard has quite a bit for us to chew on this week… But today, the cupboard is bare…  Like I said above, the FOMC meets this Wednesday, and the Jobs Jamboree for July prints on Friday this week… Two big events data-wise for this week, that’s about all I can handle these days! 

To recap…  The dollar was down for the count on Friday, until it wasn’t… Strange happenings in the dollar for sure… But overnight the dollar moved higher, and continues to push the currencies down… Gold & Silver rallied on Friday, and are up in the early trading today… Chuck talks about how opposites rule these days, with no fundamentals in play, except with the price of Oil…  Strange happenings for sure… 

For What It’s Worth… This article comes from the great writer: Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, of whom I’ve quoted and used here plenty of times in the past… It’s about China’s new direction with their economy, and it can be found here: China’s trade policy is almost a declaration of economic war (theage.com.au)

Or, here’s your snippet: “The first China Shock in the 1990s and early 2000s flooded the world with cheap goods and redrew the contours of the global economy.

It let multinationals exploit labour arbitrage, playing off Chinese wages against the wages of blue-collar workers in America and Europe. It lifted both the profit share of GDP and the Gini coefficient of inequality to the highest levels since the Second World War.

Eternal optimists had hoped for a change of course at last week’s third plenum, an event held every five years that has set economic strategy ever since Deng Xiaoping embraced capitalist roadsters at the third plenum of 1978. Instead, they got another kick in the stomach.

The communiqué exhorts the Chinese people to “persist” 17 times. This means “persisting” with policies that divert a big chunk of the national pie towards state bodies and companies, which are then pushed into chronic overinvestment by warped incentives that defy market price signals but enhance party control.

This structure leaves households with the leftovers, just 37 per cent of GDP, compared to 51 per cent in Germany, 60 per cent in Italy, 62 per cent in the UK, and 68 per cent in the US. It crushes consumption and is the root cause of the Chinese export tsunami.

The imbalance is getting worse, not better. China is reverting to the worst pathologies of its catch-up growth phase a generation ago. It was tolerated back then. It will not be tolerated now.

It rewarded capital, while the West’s bottom half was left behind, poisoning our democracies. It compounded the brain vs brawn chasm caused by digital tech. It weakened our defences against the mischief of social media.”

Chuck again… Well, this sure puts a different light on what I had thought the meeting was all about… 

Market prices 7/29/2024: American Style: A$ .6552, kiwi .5883, C$ .7228, euro 1.0837, sterling 1.2845,           Swiss $1.305, European Style: rand 18.3616, krone 10.9883, SEK 10.5056, forint 361.42, zloty 3.9564, Koruna 23.4126, RUB 86.73, yen 153.89, sing 1.3435, HKD 7.8109, INR 83.79, China 7.2578, peso 18.43, BRL 5.6563, BBDXY 1,258.40, Dollar Index 104.45, Oil $76.79, 10-year 4.16%, Silver $28.12, Platinum $946.00, Palladium $908.00, Copper $4.10, and Gold…. $2,392.12

That’s it for today…  Well, we decided that since both of us have been through hell and high water in recent days, that we would head back to St. Louis a week earlier than planned… My beloved Cardinals found a way to win at least 1 game of the 3 games series with the Nationals.. UGH!  I don’t recall if I’ve ever told you how much I love it down here, in S. Florida… I could see myself living here, if I were all alone… But I’m sure Kathy will outlive me, so I don’t have to worry about that! People back home say, “But it’s so hot there”… Oh, and it’s not hot in St. Louis! Oh well, I’ll be back here sometime in the fall… I’ve got an oldie but goodie for you here: Herb Alpert & The Tijuana Brass take us to the finish line today with their song: This Guy’s In Love With You….  For all you youngster out there that don’t know that song, You-Tube it… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• the dollar weakens a bit…
• Gold & Silver get whacked again!

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, as in life, baseball seems to return to the mean…  Yesterday, my beloved Cardinals got 6 hits, and 9 walks, and couldn’t score a run… Much like their start of the season… Well, they come home to St. Louis for a game Friday night, let’s hope they rediscover their bats!   I failed miserably at my test yesterday, so I can only hope that today is better! The Marshall Tucker Bank greets me this morning with their great song: 24 Hours At A Time… 

Well, the dollar’s ascent to higher ground hit a roadblock yesterday, and it stalled out with the BBDXY trading all day around 1,256…   That’s down from yesterday morning’s start, but not enough of a downward move to call it a change… So, the dollar is still kicking tail and taking names later, with most of the currencies. 

Gold started the day up $4 but the short paper traders couldn’t let Gold or Silver have a two day rally, so they stepped in with their arms full of short paper trades, and Gold ended up down -$19, and Silver ended up down 28-cents… Gold closed at $2,397.70, and Silver Closed at $28.91… This latest bear raid on Gold & Sliver has been quite damaging, but has it scared investors away from buying the metals in physical form?  The answer is a hard NO!  And if that’s the case, then the memo should be sent to the short paper traders to give it up! 

Oil’s downward plummet finally stopped yesterday, with the price of oil finishing the day with a $77 handle. And the 10-year’s yield rose another inch to 4.26% yesterday… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar lost another index point in the BBDXY, thus marking two days of losses, albeit small ones… I read this morning that Bill Dudley, former Fed Head, is calling for a rate cut, and that the U.S. economy is in dire need of one…  That probably has a lot to do with the weaker dollar this morning… 

Gold is getting whacked again this morning, the short paper traders are out in force… And the Dudley comments probably spurred them into action, because a rate cut should propel Gold higher, so they decided to nip that rally in the bud… Gold is down $20 this morning, and  Silver is down more than $1 this is getting ugly folks… Time to back up the truck and load it up with metals that are cheap… I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil has slipped to a $76 handle this morning, and the 10-year’s yield has dropped, thus stopping its recent upward move… Again Dudley’s comments probably had a lot to do with this move… 

I found this brief snippet in Bill Bonner’s letter yesterday that can be found : www.bonnerprivateresearch@substack.com     Here’s Bill: “We are exploring US foreign policy. Not for its own sake… foreign policy is not our beat. But how will America’s confrontational, scaremongering attitudes affect our financial future? In preview, the age-old combination of war and debt are likely to be fatal to the empire… and to US asset values.  

The problems in themselves are easy to understand and solve. Javier Milei in Argentina turned a deep deficit into a surplus in a matter of months. In America, it should be easier. The ‘empire budget’ could be cut in half… or more… just by eliminating the ‘empire’ part. On the other hand, without substantial cuts to the military, there is little chance of preventing a financial catastrophe. Too bad, the firepower industry controls Congress!”

Chuck again… I put that in today’s letter because it was revealed yesterday that 76% of total income tax receipts. Three quarters of every dollar you paid in income tax went to pay interest on the debt in June. I ask this question again… Got Gold?

There was news the past couple of days that India has announced that they were dropping the income tax, on Gold sales… India is one of the largest buyers of physical gold each year, so this could mean that they import even more Gold in the future… 

So, in the past few days, we’ve talked about how the new generation of youngsters are taking to owning physical Gold, and how India is dropping their income tax of Gold… You would think that these two items alone, not even taking into consideration that the World is a tinder box, just waiting for a spark, would be enough to scare off the short paper traders… But these guys are like a bad rash that won’t go away… I’m just saying… 

And one more thing regarding Gold & Silver, yesterday’s ending price was for Gold was $25 off its high on the day, when the short paper traders showed up at the COMEX with arms full of short paper trades…  again, these dastardly dudes got under my skin… 

The Japanese yen rallied VS the dollar overnight, and all eyes on the BOJ for next week’s meeting that I talked about yesterday, and the Russian ruble is still on the rally tracks… I find it very interesting that the price of Oil is so much weaker, but the ruble keeps truckin’ VS the dollar… And the Swiss franc is also on the rally tracks this morning, so that makes abundant sense to me, given the world is in a tinder box right now, waiting for a spark… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday didn’t have much for us to look at, but there was a New Homes Sales report for June that printed and it showed New Home Sales fell in June from May… No biggie here, yet, that is…  Today’s Cupboard has another revision of 2^nd QTR GDP, the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and June’s Durable Goods Orders…  Tomorrow’s Cupboard has the long and highly anticipated June PCE… I talked about this earlier this week, so I won’t go through it again here… 

To recap… The dollar didn’t budge much all day yesterday, some slippage had occurred, but nothing to write home about… Gold got whacked again, along with Silver, as the short paper traders wouldn’t allow the two metals to own 2 day rallies…  Oil’s downward plummet came to a stop yesterday, but after several whole figures were lost in Oil’s price… And in the overnight markets last night… The dollar slipped a bit more, but Gold & Silver are getting whacked this morning… UGH! 

For What It’s Worth… This is an article from Egon von Greyerz of whom I’ve quoted many times in the past, and it talks about debt, banana republics, and Gold, and can be found here: AVOID THE COMING DEBACLE WITH YOUR PERSONAL GOLD BANK – VON GREYERZ AG

Or, here’s your snippet: “The failure of Western financial structures, including the currency system, is in its final stages.  

Sadly, no one takes any notice – YET!

Global debt has already tripled this century, with the dollar and most currencies having lost 98.5% of their purchasing power since 1971.

Screenshot 2024-07-22 at 08.09.46.png

Experts say the US can never default as they have a printing press. Whatever lies the US and European governments come up with, a 98.5% fall in the value of a nation’s currency is an absolute default. All other explanations are just noise.

With global debt at around $350 trillion and global GDP $100 trillion, the Global Debt to GDP is 350%.

Over 100% Debt to GDP is unsustainable and cannot be financed over the longer term.

And 350% Debt to GDP is bankruptcy – Banca Rotta.

With financial markets distorted and leveraged to the hilt, global risk today is greater than ever.

There is an obvious path that small and big investors can take to minimise this risk.

The best solution is to create your own Gold Bank that will almost entirely eliminate financial risk and provide instant liquidity. In addition, compared to virtually all other asset classes, it will enhance your wealth substantially in the coming years.

US & EUROPE – TERMINAL ILLNESS

We are not just talking about terminal illness for the US, European and probably Japanese, which are all fatally wounded by debt, deficits and decadence with no chance of recovering in the next few hundred years.

We are also talking about China and many emerging markets with debts, as well as demographic and structural problems, which, even though not incurable, will slow down their economies for many years. And yet, not to the same extent as in the West.

So, are the US and Europe now Banana Republics?

Banana Republic can be described as:

A highly stratified, politically unstable socioeconomic structure, with a small ruling class that controls access to wealth and resources.

That definition certainly fits the US and Europe, with a small elite of 1% owning 1/3 of the total wealth in the US. “

Chuck again… Quite a few years ago now, yours truly, and his big boss Frank Trotter were on stage together giving a presentation, and Frank mentioned that the U.S. was now a Banana Republic…   I always knew Frank was the smartest person in any room, but to hear him say that I was shocked… Only to find out he was a head of his time! 

Market Prices 7/25/2024: American Style: A$ .6563, kiwi .5903, C$ .7223, euro 1.0849, sterling 1.2884, Swiss $1.1388, European Style: rand 18.4227, krone 11.1131, SEK 10.8370, forint 362.18, zloty 3.9992, Koruna 23.4050, RUB 84.57, yen 152.46, sing 1.3423, HKD 7.8091, INR 83.70, China 7.2165, peso 18.53BRL 5.6546, BBDXY 1,255.77, Dollar Index 104.18, Oil $76.20, 10-year 4.22%, Silver $27.91, Platinum $936.00, Palladium $910.00, Copper $4.07, and Gold… $2,371.31

That’s it for today… And this week… It’s been a tough row to hoe for me this week, I’ve been very lethargic during the day, and not ready to wake up in the morning… Hopefully, things will get better… The week with oldest son, Andrew his wife, Rachel, and Evie and Braden is coming to a close this weekend… It’s been a blast for me to have them here… Yesterday, I taught little Evie how to play “go fish”, and she beat me in her first game! I then tried to teach her to play “War”, and she grew very short with her patience in that game…  We’re going to go to the Miami Hammerheads game tonight, with the Palm Beach Cardinals out of town, we’re stuck going to a hammerheads game, but… It’s baseball, and to me that’s all that counts! Sugar Ray takes us to the finish line today with their song: Every Morning…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar remains strong…
• Gold & Silver attempt to recover from their lost ground last week…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, I made it through another day without any bleeding problems, so maybe, just maybe I’m on the road to recovery?  I was completely taken by surprise by this event, and the fact that it had been going on for a few days… Today, is a BIG day for me, so we’ll see how far along the recovery road I’ve gone…  My beloved Cardinals found a way to scratch out a 2-1 win last night… The young kids on the team once again provided the winning margin… John Fogerty greets me this morning with his song: Centerfield… 

That song always gets me going and ready for baseball!  

Ok, no long explanation this morning to start the letter, so, let’s see what happened yesterday and last night, eh?

The dollar continued to push the currencies down on its ascent to higher ground… This move puzzles the hell out of me, but it is what it is, so we deal with it, right? I mean look at the scorecard for the dollar… The election process had a curve thrown to it last week and it’s now unknown who will replace the POTUS for his party. The economic data continues to falter, and show weakness… And all the talk is about the rate cuts that are coming, supposedly…  India and Russia just announced that they will no longer use dollars in their terms of trade, so more de-dollarization is going on…   Now, let’s look at the pros for the dollar… 

The 10-year Treasury bond has a yield of 4.25%…  That’s better than most countries 10-year bonds, and the U.S. stock market is still living on borrowed time… 

Well, it looks to me like the dollar should be losing ground instead of gaining ground, but then, that’s just me… How about you? 

The one currency that has kicked the dollar’s rear end around the room has been the Russian ruble, of course now that I’ve mentioned it, I’ve probably jinxed it… So be careful here.. 

Gold gained $12 yesterday, and Silver gained 10-cents…  I’ll let you read Ed Steer’ thoughts on the goings on in the metals yesterday… Here’s Ed: “I was certainly delighted, as were you I’m sure, to see both gold and silver recover smartly off their low ticks — and close up on the day. But make no mistake about it, the collusive commercial traders were there to ensure that both didn’t run away to the upside, which they would have most assuredly done if left to their own devices.

I must admit that I was surprised that ‘da boyz’ didn’t press their advantage in either London or New York when they had both silver and gold down as much as they did — and why they were even allowed to recover all of their earlier losses, is a mystery. This is certainly not the price action one would see in the usual ‘wash, rinse & spin’ cycle we’ve become accustomed to in the past.”

Chuck again… So Gold & Silver were down at first yesterday, then rallied, and their rallies were cut short by the short paper traders… Ed can be found here: www.edsteergoldsilver.com

In the overnight markets last night, there was little to no movement in the dollar. It has slipped a little, less than 1 index point, but slipped some nonetheless… The BBDXY trades this morning at 1,256.67… It closed yesterday at 1,257.08…  Gold is up $4  to start the day today, and Silver is up 8-cents, so maybe without interference we can have a good day here… 

The price of Oil has really fallen out of bed since I was gone… Apparently, it was all about the supply of Oil building, and the lack of demand, funny how supply and demand comes into play with the price of Oil, but not silver…  The price of Oil gained a bit overnight, as there are now questions about just how much supply there is…  Nevertheless, the price of Oil is down from earlier this month, for sure!

And the 10-year Treasury’s yield is 4.25% this morning, and has been rising inch by inch in recent days, maybe the bond boys are having second thoughts about a coming rate cut? 

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will meet next week, and this is a HUGE meeting for the BOJ and yen… You may recall how I gushed over their first rate hike, and said then that the BOJ needed to follow up that rate hike with another and soon… But they didn’t, and the yen’s path to glory was halted in a NY Minute… Yen has been as low as 160 to the dollar and recently it has rallied a bit, on thoughts that the BOJ was ready to hike rates again…  Imagine how deadly it would be for yen if the BOJ skipped a rate hike next week?   Oh My!  

The Petrol currencies have seen better days for sure, with the only outlier being the Russian ruble… The Norwegian krone, Mexican peso, Canadian loony, have all been sold along with Oil lately…  The British sterling has held its gains VS the dollar in recent trading, so I guess the Russian ruble isn’t the only Petrol Currency with gains. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard doesn’t have much for us today… Just some 3^rd tier economic reports, and then New Home Sales will print for June… Yesterday, Existing Home Sales fell out of bed… And at the same time their prices went up! Maybe the high prices caused the Sales to falter?  

To recap… The dollar is still strong… The price of Gold & Silver is attempting to recover their lost ground… The price of Oil has fallen out of bed… The BOJ will meet next week, a BIG meeting for them… And some of the Petrol Currencies are showing the strains of the price of Oil being so weak… 

For What It’s Worth… OK, for years now I’ve talked about how the Romans ruined the value of their currency the Denarius… And how it was eerily similar to what the U.S. was doing to the dollar…  Well, leave it someone to tell just how that is going, and it can be found here: Going the Way of the Denarius – Doug Casey’s International Man

Or, here’s your snippet: “History repeats. (Or it rhymes, depending on your choice of words.)

Throughout history, there has been an extraordinary tendency for governments (and cultures) to follow similar paths. Even regarding eras thousands of years apart, we see people behaving in much the same way, over and over. This is particularly true in the case of “wrong moves.” Over and over, people and their governments make the same mistakes, seemingly never learning from past errors.

Why should this be? In fact, how is this even possible? Surely, if a government in the 21st century were to make egregiously bad decisions, they are unlikely to be the same bad decisions that were made in, say, Rome, in the 4th century.

The reason, in two simple words, is “human nature.” Human nature remains the same throughout time. Two thousand years ago, governments were typically made up of egotistical, self-centred dictatorial types, who were far more concerned with their own power than in the general welfare of their people. Today, politics remains a magnet for such people. They therefore will revert to type when faced with the very same problems.

Should we cut spending to give the taxpayers a break? No, we should increase taxation and give more to ourselves.

If we spend more than we receive in taxes, should we cut back our expenditures, or should we go into debt? We’ll go into debt, and put the debt on the shoulders of the taxpayers.

If the debt grows to be beyond what can ever be repaid, should we cut back expenditures, or should we allow the economy to collapse? Well, we’re sorry to see the economy collapse, but rather than deny ourselves, get out the fiddle and let Rome burn.

The denarius was the coin of the realm during the centuries when Rome was a republic. Although the gold solidus was used as a storage of wealth, the silver denarius was equal in value to a day’s wages for a common laborer and, as such, was more useful as the primary unit of exchange. During this time, it was a stable currency. However, as Rome turned into an empire, all that conquest in foreign lands became extremely costly and it was decided that one way to offset such costs was to devalue the denarius. Each successive emperor added a bit more base metal than the previous one and, by the time of Diocletian, there was no silver in the coin at all, only bronze.”

Chuck again… This is good long article, that I obviously can’t copy all of it here… So you have to click the link above to read it in its entirety, which I think would behoove you to do…  For it summarizes what I’ve been telling you for over 25 years now… 

Market Prices 7/24/2024: American Style: A$ .6598, kiwi .5895, C$ .7252, euro 1.0841, sterling 1.2904, Swiss $1.1272, European Style: rand 18.3153, krone 11.0394, SEK 10.7898, forint 362.52, zloty 3.9523, Koruna 23.4190, RUB 86.75, yen 154.54, sing 1.3445, HKD 7.8095, INR 83.23, China 7.2772, peso 18.23, BRL 5.5858, BBDXY 1,256.80, Dollar Index 104.39, Oil $77.67, 10-year 4.25%, Silver $29.27, Platinum $960.00, Palladium $940.00, Copper $4.16, and Gold… $2,413.60

That’s it for today… What a 9^th inning rally last night! My beloved Cardinals have 3 wily veterans that have really fallen flat on their faces this year in helping the offense, but the young kids in the lineup keep producing, and I find that to be quite exciting… Like last night, my son Andrew and I both agreed that they needed to get Alec Burleson up to drive in the go ahead run, and they did ,and so did he! I’m sitting here watching the sunrise out of the ocean this morning, it looks like a nice breezy day outside, I can’t wait to get out there!  I’ve had to ask little Evie and brother Braden to quiet down this morning, I’m not used to having anyone awake when I write!  J.D. Souther, takes us to the finish line today with his song: You’re Only Lonely…   I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• the dollar continues to soar…
• And are youngsters finally getting the message?

Good Day… and a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! You won’t believe what happened to me this past weekend, but after all my trials and tribulations through the years, maybe you’ll say… lucky Chuck once again… Van Morrison greets me this morning with his song: Brown Eyed Girl…

Friday night my oldest son , Andrew and his beautiful family arrived… but I was not feeling in tiptop shape… So , I went to bed, and at 4 o’clock a.m., I began this ordeal… 911 was called, the strapped me in and drove me to the hospital ER… I was in dire straits here folks..

After hours in ER I was taken to a room where I continued to have my problem over and over Again. Sunday morning they put an endoscope down me and found that I had a bleeding ulcer, that had been bleeding for a few days… lots of blood loss, so much that it took 3 units of blood just to get me back to the lowest allowable level!   

More bleeding problems all day Sunday and Sunday night, and then early morning, Monday the bleeding stopped. The hospital fed me iron, and another blood transfusion, and suddenly, I could get out of bed, stand up, and walk with a walker… It was a miracle! From not being able to stand without passing out, to be able to amble down the hallway. Soon my latest blood test showed I was good to go home…  Now, that’s a long intro to the Pfennig this morning, but… I thought that you deserved to know why I didn’t write yesterday, when I told you last week that I would…  Another life taken from my cat’s nine lives… 

While I was ailing so much, so were the metals… Gold lost 43.70 on Friday last week and ended the week at $2,400.80… Silver was also bashed last week losing 59-cents on Friday, to close the week at $29.17… The short metals traders were having a field day with Gold & Silver last week, there’s no two ways about that! Why? Because they can, and will continue to do so, whenever they feel the urge or they get the Bat signal from the White House / Treasury… 

Yesterday, Gold lost $2 on the day, and closed below $2,400 at 2,398…  Silver gained 2-cents to close at $29.19… It was a strange day, as the most the markets along with the country, tried to digest the news that the POTUS was not going to run for re-election… So, today, we should get back to business at hand, which is trying to figure out, why in the world the dollar is soaring right now, with all the talk about rate cuts… Tell me, that this makes sense, and I still won’t believe it… And after I went out on a big fat limb and told you that the dollar was in trouble going forward… My thought there hasn’t changed, and I’m not going to change my mind either… If all this rate cut talk doesn’t get the dollar in a world of hurt, then I’m going to give up, mail it in to the good folks at Battle Bank, and tell them I just don’t have it any longer, that they need to find a new writer… Seriously… 

In the overnight markets last night, there was little to no movement in the dollar or metals… Gold is up $11 to start our day today, so that’s a good sign… 

Well, the stronger dollar is really putting the kyboshes on the housing market… This from marketwatch.com , where they tell us that foreign buyers, in the last 12-months through March this year had bought  54,300 homes worth a staggering $42 Billion, but since then the sales to foreigners have fallen out of bed…  Here’s MarketWatch’s view: “Currency shifts attributed to the declining sales to foreign buyers. “The strong U.S. dollar DXY makes international travel cheaper for Americans but makes U.S. homes much more expensive for foreigners,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the NAR, said in a statement. “Therefore, it’s not surprising to see a pullback in U.S. home sales from foreign buyers.”

You know, whenever the dollar goes on one of these bull runs, it reminds me of a time on the old EverBank World Markets Trading desk, when colleague, Ty Keough, would tell his customers that when the dollar is strong, is the time to buy more currencies, because they are cheaper…   That’s a good thought right now… I’m just saying… 

In last week’s letter from Dennis Miller of www.milleronthemoney.com  he was discussing the $35 Trillion in current debt and over $200 Trillion in unfunded liabilities and had this to say: “We have two parties here, and only two. One is the evil party, and the other is the stupid party. .… Occasionally, the two parties get together to do something that’s both evil and stupid. That’s called bipartisanship.”

No matter which party reigns, the beat goes on, wasting trillions to foster political power.

The politicos have racked up almost $35 trillion in debt, and are on the hook for another $200+ trillion in “unfunded promises.” Together they broke it, make no reasonable attempt to fix it, and they want voters to believe they can change their spots and right the ship. Fiscal sanity? Impossible – an unnatural act for the ruling class.

When is the mainstream media going to finally admit we are past the point of no return?”

Chuck again… I’ll tell ya Dennis when the media will finally admit we are in deep dookie…  When the walls come crashing down, and they all begin to scream “the sky is falling”… No Chicken Littles are they…  It’ll be too late, to duck for cover, so… Once again I ask… “Got Gold”… 

This will be short-n-sweet this morning, because I’ve been “out of pocket” for 4 days… I didn’t even turn on the TV in the hospital room, as I was so out of it… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard this morning, there’s only some existing home sales data, and the cupboard was bare yesterday, so the the start of the week is data void…  At the end of this week, the markets are looking forward to seeing the latest PCE… (personal consumption expenditures) This is a preferred inflation calc that the Fed Heads use…  Without any interference with funny numbers, massaging figures, and cooking the books, I expect the PCE to be steady, and show no gains in inflation fighting…  I’m just saying…

To recap… The dollar is soaring, and after Chuck said that it was in trouble going forward… Gold & Silver have been bashed and the short paper traders have had a field day all last week… Gold is up $11 this morning, so let’s see if we can get this turned around… 

For What It’s Worth… This comes to us from Reuters, and it’s about how the younger crowd is into buying and holding physical Gold… Strange, eh?  Well, it apparently is true, so you can find it here; Golden rule: Why younger investors are drawn to gold | Reuters

Or, here’s your snippet:  What asset class do millennials and Gen Z investors both want to own?

Here is an answer you may not have guessed: Gold.

Among wealthy investors under the age of 43, 45% own gold as a physical asset, and another 45% are interested in holding it, according to a recent study by Bank of America Private Bank.

Those are far higher percentages than other age groups.

Usually this demographic is not interested in assets like gold, cash or Treasuries, because they are considered to be “boring,” says Liz Young Thomas, head of investment strategy for digital financial services firm SoFi.

“As Treasury yields rise, cash is paying a high interest rate, and gold is rising along with it. We are seeing returns we normally don’t see in such a short period of time,” Thomas says. “Naturally, when assets have strong returns, younger audiences start to perk up.”

This confirms another study by money managers State Street, which finds that millennials have the highest allocation to gold in their portfolios, at 17%, far outpacing both boomers and Gen X at 10%.

So what is going on? Why are younger investors so intrigued by a somewhat stodgy asset that has been around for thousands of years?

Part of gold’s renewed buzz is its healthy spot price, which as of this writing is above $2,400 per ounce.

It is also increasingly on the shelves in popular retail environments, which boosts visibility. Big-box chain Costco started selling 1-oz gold bars last fall and has been doing a brisk trade of up to $200 million monthly, according to Wells Fargo estimates.”

Chuck again… Well, maybe the new youngsters have learned something that the other generations didn’t… And that is Gold is a store of wealth… I’m just saying… 

Market Prices 7/23/2024: American Style: A$ .6626, kiwi .5965, C$ 7266, euro 1.0860, sterling 1.2895, Swiss $1.1224, European Style; rand 18.3582, krone 11.0069, SEK 10.7459, forint 359.30, zloty 3.9392, koruna 23.3564, RUB 86.95, yen 156.05, sing 1.3455, HKD 7.8074, INR 83.69, China 7.2749, peso 17.97, BRL 5.5763, BBDXY 1,254.60, Dollar Index 104.43, Oil $78.17, 10-year 4.23%, Silver $29.04, Platinum $958.00, Palladium $921.00, Copper $4.16, and Gold… $2,407.87

That’s it for today… It was nice to get back to our place on the beach yesterday evening… I then watched my beloved Cardinals lose a game 2-1… Their offense goes hot and cold all year, and yesterday it was cold, and tonight’s game they’ll be ice-cold, in my opinion… I’m still not 100%, but much, much better than when the paramedics strapped me to the gurney, and loaded me into the paramedic’s truck… That’s twice now that the local paramedics have come to get me… I’m not hoping for a third time, for sure! Having little Evie, and brother Braden here is fun, as the tv show used to say, “kids say the darndest things”…  Kathy just loaded them up to go to the donut shop… This will be an interesting day for sure, with those two darling amped up on donut sugar!  Wheee!  The Electric Light Orchestra takes us to the finish line today with their song: Strange Magic… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the dollar is still king, but there are some rumblings…
• ECB doing noone any favors…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday  to you! Please forgive me for not writing to you on Monday this week… I came down with a cold on the last day of my trip, and it hit me like a ton of bricks. I slept all day on Monday, and lot of yesterday, but when I awoke, I felt much better, and proclaimed myself ready to travel again yesterday.. Off to my second home in S. Florida, for my annual summer vacation, but this time, I’ll be writing during the vacation because I already took off for my Ireland sojourn.  REO Speedwagon greets me this morning with their song: Golden Country…

Well, this won’t take too long this morning, because I’m lost as to what has really gone on in the last two weeks, since I was traveling around Ireland. So, grab your cup of coffee, and let’s go through this together, eh? 

The dollar continues to be the king of the hill… And everyone on the face of the earth is forecasting a rate cut by the Fed Heads in Sept. That makes the stock jockeys happy… And the bond boys happy…  But it shouldn’t make the dollar bugs happy, and so far it hasn’t had any affect on the dollar, as it trades this morning the dollar keeps on kicking tail and taking names later. 

Gold sure is happy that the thoughts have turned to a rate cut in Sept… Gold reached an all-time high on Tuesday this week, and every day here on out it when it rallies it will reach new all-time highs… We are in uncharted areas here, folks… Silver is still below it’s recent high, but is working feverently to catch up… I’m waiting for the new “Silver guru” to take the departed Ted Butler’s place… Ted had followers called “Ted’s Raptors”… Silver needs a voice behind it to at least scare the short paper traders… 

The euro is trading with a 1.09 handle this morning, and it has been on a run of sorts vs the dollar. The old adage that when “Chucks away the currencies rally” held true this time too, as the euro was trading with a 1.07 handle the last day that I wrote, and two weeks later, it’s trading with a 1.09 handle…  I hear you snickering Mick K… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar slipped a little as the rate cut talks probably filtered over to the overseas markets. The BBDXY is trading this morning with a 1,248 handle, and Gold is up $6 to start the day. I’m getting that spider sense again that leads me to believe that the dollar is in trouble right now, and going forward, without interference by the PPT, the dollar could be in for a long period of trouble…   Nothing concrete right now, just my spider sense tingling, once again… 

Yesterday saw the short Gold paper traders hit the Comex with a bang… The day after Gold hit an all-time high, the short paper traders saw to it that Gold didn’t continue to go upward… They whacked and hacked at Gold until it gave in and lost $10 on the day to close at $2,457… And Silver saw the same type of short paper whacking and lost 94-cents to close at $30.24…  I came back to this after talking about the overnight markets because, this really irks me to no end… The short paper traders continue to get under my skin, and I don’t like that at all… In fact, at one point last year, I made the statement that I wasn’t going to let them get to to me any longer… But that lasted as long as a NY Minute, didn’t it?  

The European Central Bank (ECB ) is meeting while my fat fingers type away this morning….  The thought here is that the ECB will keep rates unchanged at this meeting but come out and say that they are looking ahead to cut rates, but not giving any timeline or guidance… That’s pretty lame on their part I would say, but, at least they are listening to me and not cutting rates just yet…   

In China, the Communist Party met and decided to  modernize the country’s industrial complex, expand domestic demand, curb debt and property sector risks, as well as implement financial and fiscal reforms  They didn’t give any thoughts on how they would do these things, but I’m sure they have them tucked away somewhere…. 

The Chinese economy has slipped in recent weeks after soaring in the weeks after their re-opening… This hiccup has led to President Xi to hold special meeting on the economy… Look, I’m of the opinion that the Chinese, which have been doing this economic thing much longer than any other country, will find a way to get the economy back on the rally tracks…  I’m just saying…

The U.S. Cupboard yesterday had the June Retail Sales, and I wasn’t able to tell you about what the Butler Household Index (BHI) told us… But it would have told you that Retail Sales would be disappointing… And that’s what they were, as they printed at 0% gain in June…  Today’s Data Cupboard has the June prints of Industrial Capacity and Capital Utilization, of which I suspect they will be disappointing too…  I have to tell you that if the economic data keeps printing these disappointing numbers, the Fed Heads will be lead to believe that they need to cut interest rates… 

That, in my humble country boy opinion, will be a BIG Mistake… But then hasn’t the Fed’s M.O. Been nothing but mistakes through the years? Now, Chuck that wasn’t very kind to the Fed Heads, and it what cost you you job at EverBank when the TIAA took them over, and TIAA’s CEO was a former Fed Governor… Yeah, but that was then, and this is now! I can say what I want to and not worry about being called on the carpet… 

To recap… Today’s letter is a brief update that’s days late, since Chuck was down with a bad cold a and slept through the days… Today Chuck heads south to his winter home in S. Florida, and will be writing from there the next 3 weeks… The dollar is still the king of the hill, but the euro is showing signs of rebounding… Gold hit an all time high on Tuesday.. Here we go! 

Market prices 7/17/2024: American Style: A$.6733, kiwi .6070, C$ .7309, euro 1.09.34, Sterling 1.2984, Swiss $1.0934, European Style: rand 18.2026, krone 10.7610, SEK 10.5482, forint 356.48, zloty 3.9264, koruna 23.1089, RUB 88.08, yen 156.44, sing 1.3409, HKD 7.8089, INR 83.65, China 7.2577, peso 17.71, BRL 5.5156, BBDXY 1,248.58, Dollar Index 103.85, Oil $82.67, 10-year 4.17%, Silver $30.43, Platinum $999.00, Palladium $952.00, Copper $4.31, and Gold… $2,567.72

For What It’s Worth… Well, as I stated above the Fed Heads historically have errored in their moves over and over again, and this time I think it will be disastrous for us… The article is about how Powell, is ready to cut rates even if the Fed’s 2% target isn’t in reach, and it can be found here:Powell indicates Fed won’t wait until inflation is down to 2% before cutting rates (cnbc.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: ” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Monday that the central bank will not wait until inflation hits 2% to cut interest rates.

Speaking at the Economic Club of Washington D.C., Powell referenced the idea that central bank policy works with “long and variable lags” to explain why the Fed wouldn’t wait for its target to be hit.

“The implication of that is that if you wait until inflation gets all the way down to 2%, you’ve probably waited too long, because the tightening that you’re doing, or the level of tightness that you have, is still having effects which will probably drive inflation below 2%,” Powell said.

Instead, the Fed is looking for “greater confidence” that inflation will return to the 2% level, Powell said.

“What increases that confidence in that is more good inflation data, and lately here we have been getting some of that,” he said.

Powell also said he thinks a “hard landing” for the U.S. economy was not “a likely scenario.”

Monday was Powell’s first public speaking appearance since the consumer price index report for June showed cooling inflation, with prices actually falling month over month.”

Chuck again… Don’t you just love it when a Fed Head like Powell, uses the latest inflation report that showed a little trace of cooling to come out and pronounce that inflation is going away?  What a Dolt! I’ll say not more!

OH, and this just in… The ECB did in fact leave rates unchanged this morning, more on this next week! 

That’s it for today… Well Baseball’s All-Star Game was played Tuesday night… This game used to be played by players that really wanted to win the game for their league… These days, it’s players that go out and try not to get hurt, and don’t really care about who wins the game… I watched some of the game before heading to bed, for my early wake up call to write this morning before heading out… I apologize again about not writing to you  earlier this week… But I was down for the count, believe me on that… Other than that, The Moody Blues take us to the finish line today with their song: Never Comes The Day… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself?

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals get sold on Wednesday
• The dollar buying stops overnight…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! How about that? In typical fashion, my beloved Cardinals played to the level of their competition and won 2 of 3 from the Braves… And The Pfennig today, is the last one until July 15th… Yes, Chuck’s annual traditional summer vacation comes earlier than usual this year, with my sojourn to Ireland… I got the blessing from my heart doc yesterday, that I’m good to go! So… I’m going! I’m starting to get all excited about this trip, and I’m a little wound up this morning, and the song that greets me this morning, helps in that fashion, as it’s Alvin Lee and Ten Years After singing their song: Choo Choo Mama… 

Well, let’s finish some unfinished business first thing this morning… On Tuesday, this week, I told you about a report that the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel had been hacked… And then there were nothing but crickets….  Last night I read this: “The LockBit ransomware gang claimed it had breached the U.S. Federal Reserve, but it ultimately leaked data belonging to a single bank. On June 23, LockBit listed the U.S. Federal Reserve on its data leak site and claimed to have obtained roughly 33 TB of stolen data.”

So, it was true, it’s true I did see a putty tat! I wonder why no one besides me is reporting this? Could it be they’ve been hushed? And they don’t care about me, I’m just some corny midwestern pundit that no one hears…  I’m just saying…

So… The dollar continued to get bought yesterday, with the BBDXY gaining a total of 5 index points on the day… The euro remained below 1.07, and the rest of the currencies remained in their respective sick beds… Hold on, currencies, for Chuck will be away for 2 weeks, and whenever Chuck is away the currencies rally… So, you just have to hang in there two more days…  Gold couldn’t ever find a bid and the short paper traders were all over Gold & Silver yesterday, so Gold ended the day down $21 from Tuesday, and Silver ended the day down 8-cents… Gold closed the day at $2,299.60, and Silver at $28.82

In the overnight markets last night…  The dollar buying stopped, and the BBDXY has given back 2 index points to start the day today… The euro has responded positively, and has popped back above the 1.07 handle… There was one currency in the last 24 hours that has really out performed all others… I know this currency is not popular with the masses, so I try not to hype it too much, but when the Russian ruble performs like it has, it has to be noted. Remember, folks… It’s an investment, not a statement…  

Gold starts today up $15 in the early trading, and Silver is up 7-cents…  There was a recent poll recently commissioned and a  survey of 525 North American professional investors – a mix of large institutions, consultants and financial advisors – the results from which confirmed a growing trend of gold ownership among this audience. A staggering 85% reported an allocation to some type of gold investment, up from 69% in 2018 and 76% in 2019.

At face value this may seem a surprisingly high percentage. And delving deeper into the data reveals that just over a quarter of respondents hold only very small (<1% AUM) gold allocations. But it was particularly interesting to see that more than half held at least 1% of AUM in gold, with 24% having an allocation of 3% or more. This is important for Gold, folks, because basically here in N. America there has been zero interest in owning Gold by investors, other than those that read the Pfennig!  

I keep my investments, stocks and bonds, with a wealth advisor, and she has never, mentioned Gold to me… Now that may be that she knows me well, and knows that I have Gold already… But I still think that it’s just not a U.S. broker’s call to talk about Gold, yet… 

The price of Oil bumped higher in the $81 handle overnight, and the 10-year added a bit more yield and trades this morning with a 4.33% yield…  I guess the bond boys have finally given up their call that the Fed Heads will cut rates this summer…  Talk about being thick-headed! I’ll say no more on that… 

The poor Japanese yen has been currency traders whipping boy, and no amount of jawboning by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) can stop the yen’s fall… Yen reached 160 two days ago, and the next stop is 170… According to traders who are taking the fight to the BOJ, and proving once again that the markets have deeper pockets than any Central Bank… 

Another currency getting taken to the woodshed these days is the Mexican peso… I read a report this morning about a huge hedge fund that made huge bets on the peso, but now is pulling those bets, giving up on the peso… That’s a high-hurdle for the peso to have to jump at this point… I’m just saying…

It always seems to take a day or two for the Petrol Currencies to react to the price actions in Oil… But Oil’s recent trading range of $80-81 doesn’t really give one a warm and fuzzy that Black Gold, Texas tea was going to move higher any time soon… There are so many folks out there dissing Oil, these days… They have no inkling that Oil is what made this country… When will they ever admit that? They won’t because that wouldn’t make the story they’re selling about how fossil fuels have ruined the climate…  I’m going to stop there before I go down a rabbit hole I don’t want to go down this morning. 

Yesterday, I quoted U.S. Treasury Sec. Janet Yellen, and refused to accept whatever it was that she had to say because of her history…  And good friend, Dennis Miller of www.milleronthemoney.com sent me this: “Will I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? No, probably that would be going too far. But I do think we’re much safer and I hope that it will not [happen] in our lifetimes and I don’t believe it will.”   –Former Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen
This came at the end of the Obama era as the reins were being turned over to Trump.  No….she is not the least bit political…  She is just a sweet grey haired con artist deluxe.

Chuck again…  Janet, schmellent! That’s what I say about our Treasury Sec. 

OK… The Reserve Bank of New Zealand sent out this communique last night: “The Reserve Bank of New Zealand – Te Pūtea Matua has released its SoI and SPE outlining what it intends to do to enable economic wellbeing and prosperity for all New Zealanders and how it will measure its performance.

The Statement of Intent (SoI) covers the period 2024 to 2028 and the Statement of Performance Expectations (SPE) covers 2024/2025.

We will report every six months to our monitoring agency.”

Chuck again…  Hmmm… Wouldn’t it be nice (Beach Boys) if any Central Bank in the world would just say, “we’ve decided to stop meddling in the economy, for we have no idea how it really works, because we’ve never been a part of the economy”  Man, in an ideal world we would hear every Central Bank say that, but in the real world, that’s not happening! 

And in another case of proving that inflation isn’t going away, and that it’s sticky… Consumer prices rose 4% in May compared to a year earlier, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), surpassing the 3.6% rate recorded in April and most importantly, surpassing economists’ expectations of 3.8%…   C’mon you Aussie’s you really didn’t believe that inflation was going away and that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was preparing to cut interest rates?  

On a sidebar this morning, I don’t know why I was thinking about this memory, but it’s there in my mind, and like I said the other day, I can’t get it out of my head (ELO)…  The memory was a time in Vancouver at the Agora Wealth Symposium, attended by more 500 people, and there I was on the main stage telling people that the markets were saying that the the dollar was sweet spot… I then said that the dollar reminded me of the old Trini Lopez song… Lemon Tree… I then said, “you all know that song, so let’s sing it” And then 500 people began singing: Lemon tree very pretty, the lemon flower is sweet, but the fruit of the poor lemon is impossible to eat!  I had actually done it! I had gotten 500 wealthy people to sing out loud!   

Back to today… The dollar reminds me of the Lemon Tree song once again… And again, I just don’t see what the dollar bugs are seeing as they buy dollars… But maybe, just maybe because you never know (Joaquin Andujar) when I get back in two weeks, things will be changed… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the New House Sales in May, and the plunged from April’s 698,000 to May’s 619,000… But, as I said yesterday, this is not a market moving piece of data, so we’ll move on from here…

The Data Cupboard today has the usual Thursday fare of Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which have been above 220,000 for a few weeks now.  May Durable Goods Orders will print today, and I expect them to be negative… And finally, the 2^nd revision of 1^st QTR GDP will print, expect another downward revision, in my opinion… 

To recap… The dollar continued to get bought yesterday with the BBDXY gaining 5 index points, but only 1 of those index points during the U.S. session, so has the buying begun to peter out? Just asking…   The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel did indeed get hacked yesterday. Does that worry you any? It does me…  Friend, Dennis Miller supplies us with another famous quote of Janet Yellen’s this morning… And the dollar finally stopped getting bought in the overnight markets last night. 

For What It’s Worth… Well, I’ll leave you today with a different FWIW article, that seems more like a PSA… This is about the FBI making a financial warning, and you should read it if you have a Time Share with a lot of interest! I’m just saying… The article can be found here: FBI issues national financial warning – al.com

Or, here’s your snippet: “he Federal Bureau of Investigation has issued a warning over a particular type of financial crime that’s linked to Mexican cartels.

In an announcement, the agency said it has seen a rise in scams targeting timeshare owners. The primary victims are older Americans, particularly wealthy ones looking to recoup some of the money spent on their real estate investment. In the last five years, upwards of 6,000 victims have reported more than $300 million in losses to the agencies, the agency said.

“Timeshare fraudsters aim to suck their victims dry, with devastating consequences to victims’ financial futures, relationships, and physical and emotional health,” Assistant Special Agent in Charge Paul Roberts, who leads FBI New York’s Complex Financial Crimes Branch, said in a blog post.

Roberts said the scams have caught the FBI’s attention because its illicit proceeds are increasingly used to fund violent cartels in Mexico.

“Timeshare fraud has low overhead costs and minimal reinvestment, needing only a rental of small space, telecom setup, and English-speaking employees with access to resort databases,” Roberts said. “There is lower perceived risk of prosecution and extradition for timeshare fraud but easy cash flow that goes directly into the Mexican banking system and obfuscates funds to facilitate money laundering activities.”

Chuck Again… The article goes on to explain how the fraud schemes work…  I read it, thinking that I was amazed at how intricate these frauds were… 

Market prices 6/27/2024: American Style: A$ .6661, kiwi .6102, C$ .7306, euro 1.0702, sterling 1.2653, Swiss $1.1147, European Style: rand 18.3474, krone 10.6487, SEK 10.5889, forint 371.22, zloty 4.0273, koruna 23.3138, RUB 85.98, yen 160.54, sing 1.3565, HKD 7.8084, INR 83.30, China 7.2686, peso 18.30, BRL 5.5210, Oil $81.21, 10-year 4.33%, Silver $28.89, Platinum $1,004.00, Palladium $922.00, Copper $4.36, and Gold… $2,314.77

That’s it for today, and the next two weeks!  Like I said earlier this week, if you miss me, and I know you will, you can get a Chuck fix by going to www.dailypfennig.com and read all the archives your little heart desires! Tomorrow is my little buddy’s birthday… Yes, Alex will be 29 tomorrow (how’d that happen?) It just seems like yesterday that we celebrated his 21^st birthday! And not that long ago it seems, he sat on my lap while I wrote the Pfennig and would add his own *&^%4569(&%  he used to love to be able to add to the Pfennig!  Alex is a Physical Therapist with a doctorate now, and will be tying the knot on Dec. 6^th this year…  Life cycles… I’m going out, and he’s coming on…   So, an early Happy Birthday, Alex! And with that, I’m outta here! The Who takes us to the finish line today with their song: Won’t Get Fooled Again… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please Be Good To Yourself, today, tomorrow, and the next two weeks! 

Chuck Butler

• currencies & metals get sold on Tuesday…
• The dollar’s share of reserves has fallen a bit…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you… 3 down, 1 to go… I never thought it would ever get here, but now I’m just days away from my Ireland sojourn…  Cardinals were rained out last night, so as Ernie Banks used to say, “let’s play 2!” Cardinals / Braves will play a double header today… The regularly scheduled game for today, was a day game, so the rained out game will be the 2^nd game… I was watching the 5 o’clock news last night, and there was no  mention of rain interrupting the baseball game… So, it was a surprise rain, that really cooled down the air, that had reached 102 during the day… That tied a record that was set in 1988… I’m not even going to go into what I think about that!  My favorite John Denver song greets me this morning… Back Home Again…

I guess we’ll hear today whether the Fed did actually get held ransom by a hacker… I don’t think you’ll hear Lester Holt, or any of the other National News outlet,  tell you about that… I’m just saying… 

The dollar continued to get bought yesterday, and the BBDXY ended the day up a total of 2 index points to 1,266… The euro held on to the 107 handle, but the rest of the currencies, including the Petrol Currencies, saw their recent levels reduced… Gold ended the day down -$15 and Silver lost 69-cents and fell below $29 again… The short paper traders took Silver below it’s 50-day moving average.  

The short paper traders have gone to a new tactic it seems… They are going to make Gold’s rise bumpy, in an attempt to scare away investors who are used to see things that they buy go straight up… Well, these aren’t the kind of investors I want to see buying Gold, because they will just sell it at the first sign of a good profit… They have no idea why they should be buying Gold, and it’s better than we don’t tell them, for they won’t want to know! 

The price of Oil slipped below the $81 handle yesterday, at $80.89… One would think that with the political gyrations going on around the world, that Gold would be well underpinned, and only moving higher… The short paper traders know that, and so they’ll make things bumpy for Gold & Silver from here on out..  The 10-year’s yield saw some selling yesterday, and it ended the day with a 4.26% yield…  

In the overnight markets last night… Well, the foreign markets finally got the memo about how the U.S. markets were buying dollars, and they acted on it. The BBDXY is up 4 index points to start the day today. The euro fell further in the 1.06 handle, and the rest of the currencies have been sent directly to their respective sick beds, they can’t pass Go, nor can they collect $200. Right to bed!   This dollar strength is way overdone in my opinion, but don’t get caught stepping in front of this speeding bus!   

Gold & Silver are getting sold this morning to start our day… Gold is down $9 and Silver is down pennies… Wait a minute here… Gold & Silver got sold yesterday, isn’t today a Gold & Silver rally day? Hmmm… OK, I don’t really buy into the the buy one day sell the other, as written in stone… 

The price of oil bumped higher overnight and trades, once again with an $81 handle… I read this morning that Oil traders are waiting on the economic data that will print tomorrow, before making any further bets on the direction of Oil…  Well, I guess that’s a prudent thing to do, but supply and demand would be my choice of direction giver!  I’m just saying…  The 10-year’s yield continued to inch higher and trades with a 4.29% yield this morning… 

I read this morning that the bets (in futures) that the Fed Heads will cut rates soon, have been pared a bit, and I’m sure that has something to do withe the recent slide in the 10-year’s yield… 

Ok, all the de-dollarization talk has grown recently, and this is beginning to show in the level of reserves that countries hold in dollars…  Years ago, it ran around 64%, with the euro coming in second… Yesterday it was reported that the dollar’s holding by Central Banks had slipped, here’s the skinny: 58% U.S. dollars and 20% euros

The remaining 22% is divided among yen (6%), sterling (5%), Canadian dollars or CAD (2.5%) And other currencies are each less than 2% (AUD, CNY, CHF).  I pulled that data from www.dailyreckoning.com

I wouldn’t say that the dollar is in trouble just yet regarding the amount of dollars held in reserve by foreign banks… I would say that this shows that the rot is on the vine, and that eventually the rot will take over the whole vine… The main component of the dollar still being used widely is the fact that a ton of Oil contracts are still traded in dollars… But with the Saudi announcement that I talked about here recently, this support for the dollar will fade…  I would say that a fall from 64% to 58% is significant… I’m just saying… 

Well, then isn’t that special (in my best church lady voice!) Janet Yellen, our Treasury Secretary, and former Chief Fed Head, is out telling anyone that will hear her, that all is clear, you can come out now… Here’s the skinny: “Janet Yellen said excessive inflation will be over soon. The U.S. Treasury Secretary thinks the Federal Reserve could hit its 2% inflation target in 2025, with a soft landing for the American economy well in her sight.”

Of course she said that! And of course she is wearing her (I’ll lose my job if the POTUS doesn’t win ) rose colored glasses… Or, maybe, she’s just not privy to the deficit spending plans of the administration… Oh, Chuck, c’mon, she’s not that out of it! OK, so, then it’s all a political posturing then…   She should be put on a slow boat to China, in my opinion, because her politically charged rhetoric doesn’t help you, me and the guy down the street that cuts his grass with his shirt off…    Again, I’m just saying…  

Here’s the bugaboo with deficit spending… If you never reduce it, or taper it, of even stop it, it’ll just continue to grow and grow until it breaks the financial system.  You see, ever since Nixon took us off the Gold backing of the dollar, (it was billed as only temporary!) in August of 1971, the U.S. that was once a credit based nation, because a debt based nation, and once the lawmakers saw that there was no limit to their deficit spending, then they really began to pile up their boondoggles and spending promises for votes, until where we are today… $35 Trillion, in debt, $100 Trillion in unfunded liabilities  (thanks to the Debt Clock.org) … And you can’t stop this without the whole shootin’ match come crumbling down… Which it will do anyway eventually from the weight of the debt, but one comes now, and one comes later… 

The Gov’t’s plans to have inflation melt away some of the debt, is going to come back to haunt them, in my humble country boy opinion… The general public cannot deal with continued inflation, they need to see some relief.. Sort of like the rain that came last night to cool down the temperatures…  The public will blame whomever is in the President’s seat… 

And to that note: This from the Pew Research.com  “Public trust in the federal government, which has been low for decades, has increased modestly since 2023. As of April 2024, 22% of Americans say they trust the government in Washington to do what is right “just about always” (2%) or “most of the time” (21%). Last year, 16% said they trusted the government just about always or most of the time, which was among the lowest measures in nearly seven decades of polling.”

That’s right 7 decades of polling, the lowest measures… And probably going to go much lower… I’m just saying…

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the April Case/ Shiller Home Price Index, and it showed a deterioration of the housing prices across the U.S.  We also saw the STUPID Consumer Confidence for June and it fell from 102 to 100… Big Deal! NOT!  The talking heads talked about how the Consumer Confidence fall wasn’t consequential… Hmmm… Well, for comparison this index was 132 before the plandemic… So there’s that! 

The Data Cupboard today only has new Home Sales for May… Not a market moving data print in any way, so we’ll move along now… 

To recap… The dollar buying message finally got to the foreign traders, and they acted on it, with the dollar being bought up overnight, following up on the dollar getting bought yesterday… It’s all over done per Chuck… Gold & Silver continue to get whacked, and any moving average line you want to use, has been blown out by the short paper traders, and Janet Yellen has some encouraging words for us this morning. (NOT!) And the dollar’s share of reserves has fallen , significantly, according to Chuck… All that and more is in today’s Pfennig! 

For What It’s Worth… I couldn’t believe my eye yesterday, when I read Ed Steer’s letter that can be found here: www.edsteergoldsilver.com and he highlighter a story that was on the Wall Street Journals web site, and the story was asked the question about would excessive debt ruin the U.S. Financial System?   I couldn’t believe that the WSJ would print something like that!  But since they did, it’s my FWIW article today and you’ll have to go to Ed Steer’s letter to read it, or find it on the WSJ web site, because I couldn’t get the link to work… 

Or, here’s your snippet: “America is cruising into an uncharted sea of federal debt, with a public seemingly untroubled by the stark numbers and a government seemingly incapable of turning them around.

In the presidential race, there’s not much partisan difference or advantage on this subject. Donald Trump and President Biden have overseen similar additions to the nation’s accumulated debt—in the range of $7 trillion in each case—during their terms. The national response to both has been, by and large, to look the other way.

History, however, offers some cautionary notes about the consequences of swimming in debt. Over the centuries and across the globe, nations and empires that blithely piled up debt have, sooner or later, met unhappy ends.

Historian Niall Ferguson recently invoked what he calls his own personal law of history: “Any great power that spends more on debt service (interest payments on the national debt) than on defense will not stay great for very long. True of Habsburg Spain, true of ancien régime France, true of the Ottoman Empire, true of the British Empire, this law is about to be put to the test by the U.S. beginning this very year.” Indeed, the Congressional Budget Office projects that, in part because of rising interest rates, the federal government will spend $892 billion during the current fiscal year for interest payments on the accumulated national debt of $28 trillion—meaning that interest payments now surpass the amount spent on defense and nearly match spending on Medicare.

Washington has been adding to the national debt at an alarming pace. Not so long ago—beginning in the late 1990s—the federal government’s budget was actually in surplus, at least for a time. This year, it will be some $1.9 trillion in the red, the Congressional Budget Office forecast just this week.”

Chuck again… Again, I was shocked to see the WSJ print something like that! They usually toe the line, and stay straight and narrow, not ruffling feathers… I’m sorry that the link I tried wouldn’t work for me, so I couldn’t give it to you…  And I in no way am dissing the WSJ… They have been kind enough to print two articles about me in the past… One by Jeff Opdyke, and one by Craig Karmin… Those were long ago, and in a far away place, but still near and dear in my heart! 

Market Prices 6/26/2024: American Style: A$ .6655, kiwi .6095, C$ .7303, euro 1.0683, sterling 1.2646, Swiss $1.1262, European Style: rand 18.1734, krone 10.6574, SEK 10.5885, forint 371.17, zloty 4.0324, koruna 23.3156, RUB 87.37, yen 160.31, sing 1.3577, HKD 7.8083, INR 83.59, China 7.2667, peso 18.24, BRL 5.4313, BBDXY 1,270.08, Dollar Index 105.96, Oil $81.35, 10-year 4.29%, Silver $28.89, Platinum $995.00, Palladium $949.00, Copper $4.37, and Gold… $2,311.42

That’s it for today… Heavens me! What was i thinking yesterday morning, not mentioning the Championships that were won the night before! So… Congrats to the Florida Panthers for their Stanley Cup NHL Championship… And Congrats to Tennessee’s Baseball Team for the NCAA baseball Championship! Well, I finally talked to my heart doctor yesterday, and we mapped out plan to maybe get me ready for my sojourn to Ireland… So, maybe, I can still get to go! I talked to good friend, and former Big Boss, Frank Trotter a week or so ago, and he tells me that he’s waiting for approval from the FDIC to open his bank: Battle Bank… (he’s a really patient man!) I really think that if you’re looking for a better bank, that you should sign his register and when the Bank opens, they will contact you… Simply go to: www.battlebank.com   The Band Missouri takes us to the finish line today with their one hit wonder song: Movin’ On… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and will Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler