Are Naked Shorts A Thing Of The Past?

Rocktober 19, 2023

* currencies drift lower on Wednesday

* Ahem, Janet, we can’t afford to buy a candy bar! 

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! The entire family, sans two, went to dinner last night together at the local Malt Shop… As you may recall, I gave up sweets over 3 years ago, but I couldn’t resist my fave shake… A Banana Shake! Man, was that yummy! I wasn’t sure how my stomach would react to it, but I did it anyway! I said to myself, “Chuck, you’ve never been someone that stops eating or drinking something because of your cancer” let the chips fall where they will, is my attitude… And I won! my stomach did not revolt and I had a decent night’s sleep! The band, Jet, greets me this morning with their song: Are You Gonna Be My Girl?
Well, after the better-than-expected Retail Sales on Tuesday, the dollar traders/ bugs, piled into the dollar again, and the BBDXY gained 5 index points yesterday… All the currencies were affected by the dollar’s rise. What took traders so long before diving into the dollar again? I guess they wanted to look under some hoods… No, wait! That’s what I do, Traders never, ever look under hoods! I mentioned yesterday, that the POTUS going to Israel had calmed the markets… Hmmm…. Nothing like not seeing that you’ll be disappointed by the outcome, eh?  Oh well, it is what it is… Gold started the day yesterday up a whopping $48, and ended the day up $24.40 to a price of $1,947.90, which was $16 off its high for the day, and Silver did the same thing, giving back a majority of its gains, to end up .02-cents, which was 50-cents off its high, and a price of $22.91…
The dastardly short paper traders just couldn’t leave Gold & Silver alone for the day, and they were responsible for the metals giving back some of thier gains during the day yesterday… 
The big mover yesterday was the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which saw a rist to 4.95%! It came from 4.85% early in the morning… The rout on Treasuries, is major folks… I read where some of the issues sold before yields began to rise were now selling at 50-cents on the dollar… If stocks had a drop like that it would be considered to be in collapse! You can’t sell you previously issued bonds now… It’s sort of like the lyrics to Hotel California… you can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave…. At least you’ll get your principal back at maturity, if you can hang on that long, that is… 
The price of Oil remained trading with an $88 handle yesterday… A BIG move from $83 last week, before the Israel/ Hamas conflict, but now appears to be stuck in the mud… 
In the overnight markets last night…. There was little to no movement in the dollar, with the BBDXY up just 1/3rd of an index point… The price of Gold is up $4 to start the day today, nothing like yesterday’s moon shot to start the day, but up nonetheless… Silver is flat to down some pennies to start the day today… And wouldn’t you know, I just wrote about how the price of Oil seemed to stuck in the mud, when I look at the overnight prices, Oil has dropped a buck to start the day trading with an $87 handle… UGH!  And the 10-year, added another bip to its yield overnight, and starts today with a 4.96% yield… Inching, closer to 5%… inch by inch, as the saying goes… 
The markets are on the edges of their seats today, waiting for Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chairman, Jerome Powell to speak… Yesterday, Fed Head Waller painted a dovish picture for interest rates…  It should be noted that Waller, had been thought to be a Hawk, so his dovish position was strange… I kind of think the Powell will trump Waller this morning, and talk about the need for one more rate hike, coming in December… And that won’t be good for Gold, but then maybe Powell will surprise us today and turn into a dove…  stranger things have happened, right? 
And the Bank of Japan (BOJ) watchers are talking about another round of intervention that may be coming from the BOJ… I say, “Why waste the money?, the last bout of intervention lasted about 2 days, and then then the yen was right back to getting sold…”    Remember when I used to tell you that the markets have more cash than a Central Bank?  Well, that’s still plays, especially here… 
So, does everyone know who Robert Prechter is? He’s the genius behind Elliot Wave, you know the charts people that tell you something’s going to happen long before it does? Well, I was reading a blip by Doug Casey, and he mentioned that Robert Prechter is calling for a massive selloff of stocks…  Uh-Oh…  but when people get tired of waiting for stocks to come back, they’ll hopefully turn to Gold, something stable, and something that will keep up with inflation, unlike what they’ve been holding…  So, there you have it straight from the horse’s mouth! 
You know me, I’m not even your last pick when it comes to being a stock jockey, but I learned something many years ago, and that was to follow the Elliot Wave charts…. 
Ok, you know me, and I don’t believe the Gov’t should spend 1 penny more than they receive in Taxes… And while the Gov’t DOES spend more than it takes in, yearly, which is why the national Debt is $33 Trillion, and climbing higher and higher with each year’s deficit spending… So, when I hear the U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen talking about what we can afford, it made the hair on the back of my neck stand up… Here’s the skinny on what I’m talking about: “US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen stated in an interview that “America can certainly afford to stand with Israel and to support Israel’s military needs and we also can and must support Ukraine in its struggle against Russia.”
Ok, so she thinks we can afford to support both Israel and Ukraine?  Maybe Janet needs to go back to elementary school and learn some ‘rithmatic! We as a Country are already on pace to have a $2.0 Trillion deficit in the fiscal year that started not that long ago… So, I guess what she’s saying is: “We’re already at $2 Trillion, why not make it $2.1 or 2.2 Trillion? What the diff? 
Ahhh, Janet, tell me you have forgotten how the U.S. finances its deficit spending, because, otherwise, you’d be worried about the addition bonds that would have to be sold to cover that increased debt… Bonds that apparently countries all over the world are rejecting at auctions… 
SERENITY NOW!  As Popeye used to say, “I’ve had all I can stands, and I can’t stands no more”! I either need to quit writing, so it doesn’t upset me so much, or… move to an island country that doesn’t have internet! 
The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the Fed’s Beige Book, and in it…. The U.S. economy exhibited “stable” to “slightly weaker” growth in the early fall, a Federal Reserve survey found, helping to loosen up a tight labor market and ease inflation…  And the Fed Head who spoke yesterday, Waller, told his audience that he preferred the Fed Heads wait on any new rate hikes…   So, the doves got a double dose of ammo for their thoughts that the Fed was finished with their rate hike cycle… 
To recap… The dollar selling ended yesterday, with the dollar bugs diving right back into the dollar, driving the BBDXY up 5 index points on the day… The dollar strength affected all the currencies, so none were spared… Gold had to give back about 1/ 2 of its early morning gain yesterday, but did gain $24.40, While Silver eked out a 2-cents gain… The Big mover yesterday, was the yield in the 10-year Treasury, as it grows ever so close to 5%… And Janet Yellen thinks we can afford to support both Israel and Ukraine… Chuck thinks she needs to go back to elementary school for some ‘rithmatic lessons! 
For What It’s Worth… The link to this article was sent to me from the good folks at GATA… It’s about a ruling that could have an affect on naked short positions in metals, and it can be found here: Is This The End Of Naked Short Selling? | OilPrice.com
Or, here’s your snippet: “American investors have been taken for a trillion-dollar ride by naked short sellers, in what could turn out to be the biggest financial regulatory scandal in North American history.

While what is now an all-out war on naked short sellers intensifies, there is a new flashpoint on the front line–a potentially devastating ruling targeting those who are alleged to make illegal naked short selling possible: The Facilitators: bankers and brokers.
On September 29, Federal District Court Judge Lorna Schofield of the Southern District of New York issued a ruling that has the potential to significantly disrupt Wall Street compliance, and is a major first step towards protecting retail investors from fraud.
In Harrington Global Opportunity Fund Ltd. v. CIBC World Markets, Inc et.al, Judge Schofield found that broker-dealers may be primarily liable for manipulative trading initiated by their customers because they serve as “gate-keepers” of trading on securities exchanges.

These broker-dealers have a “continuing responsibility to ensure that their customer’s order flow … is in compliance with all applicable rules, regulations and laws and detect and prevent manipulative or fraudulent trading … under the supervision and control of the firm,” the judge ruled.

When things get naked, the regulatory environment becomes riddled with compliance holes. With a naked short, the short seller is selling shares it doesn’t own and has made no arrangements to buy. That means the seller cannot cover or “settle” in this instance. More profoundly, it means they are selling ghost shares that simply do not exist without their further action. The ability to sell an unlimited number of non-existent shares in a publicly-traded company gives a short seller the ultimate power: To destroy and manipulate a company’s share price at will.  

Following the 2008/2009 financial crisis, naked short selling was classified as illegal in the United States, though that labeling has done nothing to thwart this lucrative game.

What makes the September ruling so impactful is this: Without the big banks and financial institutions’ complicity, this highly destructive form of naked short selling could never happen.”

Chuck Again… Well, we certainly have seen more short paper trading since the ruling took place… Are the price manipulators, saying neener, neener, neener to the Judge and the ruling?  I do believe they are… stay tuned for more on this story in the future… 
Market Prices 10/19/2023: American Style: A$ .6311, kiwi .5825, C$ .7285, euro 1.0555, sterling 1.2122, Swiss $1.1140, European Style: rand 19.0262, krone 11.0392, SEK 11.0262, forint 364.06, zloty 4.2201, koruna 23.4033, RUB 97.28, yen 149.82, sing 1.3735, HKD 7.8253, INR 83.24, China 7.3159, peso 18.32, BRL 5.0571, BBDXY 1,275.60, Dollar Index 106.47, Oil $87.30, 10-year 4.96%, Silver $22.90, Platinum $883.00, Palladium $1,103.00, Copper $3.59, and Gold… $1,951.26
That’s it for today… A BIG weekend for my beloved Mizzou Tigers coming up… On Saturday night, I will be in attendance for the last regular season game for my StL City Team… that is as long as it’s not going to rain… I will have just gotten over a bug, and don’t want to catch another one! My immune system is shot… After years of chemo, I could walk past someone with a cold, and tomorrow I’d be sneezing… Later this year, in July, Kathy and I are headed to Ireland! with a side trip to Oslo Norway… I’m very excited about this, but need to temper my excitement, because it’s still 255 days away! We just finalized everything, so now we wait for July! I sure hope my body has gotten used to the new chemo soon… And on that note, Sugar Ray takes us to the finish line today with their song: Every Morning…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a Fantastico Friday tomorrow, Let’s go Tigers! And please remember to Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

Gold & Silver Start The Day Running Higher!

Rocktober 18, 2023

*currencies drift on Tuesday… 

* China’s economy not in collapse, as reported… 

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Boy, was it cold when I went to get my blood draw yesterday morning! I was then cold to the bone all day, wrapping myself in a blanket, and hunkering down all day… Which was easy to do, since my stomach was revolting in me, and hunkering down seemed to be the only thing I could do… I think I finally got it under control last night, fingers crossed this morning… Dastardly Chemo is to blame, although, I do believe I did have a touch of a stomach bug, because no Chemo has ever affected me like this new one… Junior Walker and the All-Stars greet me this moring with their 60’s song: What Does It Take?
Well, yesterday’s price action in the dollar was booooorrrinngg! The BBDXY remained 1,270 all day long… So, that means the currencies were non-movers too… I read last night that the markets had calmed down now that the POTUS is heading to Israel…  What on earth do they think he’s going to do there? I have my opinion, but I’ll keep it to myself! The Potus was supposed to have a meeting with the Palestine President (PP), but the PP cancelled the meeting after Potus’ plane left the ground… I guess he didn’t want to talk to our POTUS!  
Gold had a good day going at one point in the day, up more than $5 and looking like it wanted to go higher, but then the short paper traders showed up and reduced Gold’s gain to $2.80 on the day. Silver was following Gold’s lead, and was up nicely, when the short paper traders showed up, and reduced Silver’s gain to 20-cents… Gold ended the day at $1,923.80, and Silver at $22.89… 
I think the thing that saved the dollar from getting sold again yesterday, was the out of left field, print of Retail Sales for Sept… Retail Sales were up .7% in Sept…. The increase was spurred by strong demand at auto dealers and online stores, the government reported. Higher gasoline prices also played a role, however. And I would bet a shiny quarter that the rise in gasoline prices played a large role in the increase of Retail Sales…  I read one article that was so all-in on the resiliency of the economy, that they talked about how consumers have the cash to keep the economy going… Well, that may be, but then why has consumer credit (read debt) risen in recent months? 
The price of Oil gained $2 yesterday and end the day with an $88 handle…  I need to fill up my gas tank, and of course I waited a couple of days to do this, and it will come back to bite me, but… I need the gas, so I pay… 
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.83% yesterday… Now that’s a move! The bond boys figure that if Retail Sales was so strong, then the Fed Heads are NOT going to be cutting rates any time soon…  So, they mark up the yield and everything that’s priced off of the 10-year, like loans, mortgages to name a couple, will also be marked higher and that’s a cost to you, dear reader… 
So… That’s what happened in the markets yesterday… The dollar drifted, Oil gained, bond yields gained, Gold & Silver gained, and it was all tied to a stronger than expected Retail Sales…
In the overnight markets last night…  Well, the dollar again drifted but this time higher by ½ Index point… So, no biggie… But the real news this morning is that Gold is on a run higher! Gold is up $48 to start the day today, and Silver is up 38-cents! The flight to safety is in the cards today, and brother does it look good for Gold & Silver! 
The price of Oil trades with a $88 handle this morning, and the 10-year added to its yield overnight, and starts today at 4.85%…  But that run up of Gold & Silver this morning is impressive to say the least! 
Longtime reader, Bob, sent me a note yesterday, here it is: “we think of the money going to debt, and to the military – but did anyone know that tthe costs of wildfires are truly enormous!!!!!!  An impact that is even more than the costof the us military!!!!
So, here’s the skinny of what he’s talking about… “National defense costs roughly $766 billion per year and education and social services cost $677 billion. The Wildfire budget can go from $394 Billion per year to $893 Billion per year… Yikes… But, here’s the problem as I see it… These wildfire expenses wouldn’t be that big of a deal if we were a budget surplus country…  Yeah, imagine that as the Twilight Zone music begins to play, the U.S. as a Buget Surplus country, it boggles the imagination, does it not? 
In the housing market, there’s this from CNBC.com this morning: “Builder confidence in the market for single-family homes dropped to the lowest level since January, as builders contend with a market dominated by high mortgage rates and costs for financing.

The monthly National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped 4 points to 40 in October, and September’s read was revised down 1 point. Anything below 50 is considered negative. This marks the third straight monthly decline in builder confidence.”

Confidence is very important to have in anything, but here, it means that there are many builders that are being shut out of the business, because of high interest rates… Poor souls… If they think these are high interest rates, they certainly weren’t around when I first bought a house, and my mortgage rate was 10%!   I’m just saying…
Well, all the reports that talk about a collapse of the Chinese economy, will be backing of their statements after it was reported last night that  China’s economy grew at a faster-than-expected clip  (4.9%)in the third quarter, while consumption and industrial activity in September also surprised on the upside, suggesting the recent flurry of policy measures is helping to bolster a tentative recovery. Retail Sales also beat expectations, so not is all as bad in China as the so-called experts have stated… 
Reuters reported, this morning, that U.K. inflation remained sticky at 6.7%… Here’s Reuters view: ” British consumer price inflation (CPI) unexpectedly held at 6.7% in September, remaining the highest of any major advanced economy and keeping alive the possibility of another rise in interest rates.

A rise in petrol prices between August and September was the main factor stopping a fall in the annual rate, the Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday.”

Chuck again, yeah, those pesky Petrol prices, will do that every time! 
The Data Cupboard yesterday had Retail Sales, which we already talked about, and Industrial Production, which was also reported stronger than expected at .3% and Capacity Utilization, which also increase to 79.7%…  Well, from the looks of these three reports, one would think that the U.S. economy is doing alright… But there are some dark alley ways associated with the economy folks, that you wouldn’t want to venture down! 
Today’s Data Cupboard has Housing Starts for Sept. and 3 Fed Head speakers… late in the afternoon, we’ll see the Fed’s Beige Book, which used to mean something to traders, but doesn’t really hold a candle to other reports that traders use now… So there’s that! 
To recap… The dollar drifted yesterday, with the BBDXY remaining in the 1,270 handle all day… Chuck thinks what saved the dollar from getting sold was the stronger than expected Retail Sales report for Sept… Gold & Sliver’s gains yesterday were chopped down by the short paper traders, Oil gained $2, and the 10-year’ yield climbed to 4.83%! 
For What It’s Worth… This is a cute article that appeared on CBS.com that talks about what Gold did the last 10 years, and it can be found here: What a $1,000 gold investment 10 years ago would be worth today – CBS News
Or, here’s your snippet: “Gold’s value has been recognized for thousands of years, and it continues to hold a unique place in the world of investments. Not only can this precious metal help to reduce the risk from other investments in your portfolio, but it can also help protect your wealth and hedge against inflation.

Most other types of investments simply can’t offer those types of benefits to investors. That’s a large part of why so many investors have flocked to this precious metal recently, whether they’re investing in gold bars and coins, gold stocks and ETFs or preparing for retirement with a gold IRA. And, given the current uncertainties with the economy, it’s likely that even more investors will put money into gold in the coming months and years.

But what exactly can new investors expect to see in terms of gold’s price growth? A variety of factors can impact the price of gold, including economic conditions, geopolitical events and market sentiment. And, over the past decade, gold’s price has experienced both ups and downs, making it an interesting case study. Let’s take a look at what a $1,000 investment in gold 10 years ago would be worth today.

“Gold’s value has been recognized for thousands of years, and it continues to hold a unique place in the world of investments. Not only can this precious metal help to reduce the risk from other investments in your portfolio, but it can also help protect your wealth and hedge against inflation.
Most other types of investments simply can’t offer those types of benefits to investors. That’s a large part of why so many investors have flocked to this precious metal recently, whether they’re investing in gold bars and coins, gold stocks and ETFs or preparing for retirement with a gold IRA. And, given the current uncertainties with the economy, it’s likely that even more investors will put money into gold in the coming months and years.
But what exactly can new investors expect to see in terms of gold’s price growth? A variety of factors can impact the price of gold, including economic conditions, geopolitical events and market sentiment. And, over the past decade, gold’s price has experienced both ups and downs, making it an interesting case study. Let’s take a look at what a $1,000 investment in gold 10 years ago would be worth today.
What a $1,000 gold investment 10 years ago would be worth today
In October 2013, the price of gold was approximately $1,325 per ounce, according to historical price data from the World Gold Council. If you had invested $1,000 in gold at that time, you would have been able to purchase roughly 0.753 ounces of gold.
Now, let’s fast forward to the present.

As of October 2023, the price of gold hovers at about $1,900 per ounce. So, if you held onto your 0.753 ounces of gold from your initial $1,000 investment, it would be worth approximately $1,432 today. This means that your $1,000 investment would have grown by about 43% in nominal terms.

If you factor in an average annual inflation rate of 2%, your $1,000 investment would need to grow to about $1,218 to maintain its purchasing power over 10 years — which it has. So, over the last decade, the nominal value of your gold investment has increased, and its growth has kept pace with inflation — and also surpassed it!”
Chuck again… Well, do I need to say more? Gold has kept up with inflation and has increased over that! 
Market Prices 10/18/2023: American Style: A$.6364, kiwi .5887, C$ .7319, euro 1.0570, sterling 1.2200, Swiss $1.1138, European Style: rand 18.8253, krone 10.9845, SEK 10.9537, forint 363.47, zloty 4.2328, koruna 23.3616, RUB 97.27, yen 149.88, sing 1.3698, HKD 7.8263, INR 84.26, China 7.3146, peso 18.02, BRL 5.0306, BBDXY 1,271.19, Dollar Index 106.19, Oil $88.06, 10-year 4.85%, Silver $23.27, Platinum $908.00, Palladium $1,151.00, Copper $3.58, and Gold… $1,948.40
That’s it for today… Well the Phillies look unbeatable right now, so good for them! My beloved Mizzou Tigers come home this Saturday, to Home Coming! Home Coming all started at the University of Missouri, so at least we’re known for something!  My Tigers will play the Gamecocks of S. Carolina on Saturday, and they need this win BIG Time, for then they go on bye next week before taking on Big Bad Georgia! It’s supposed to warm up today, so maybe I’ll be able to go outside and not freeze! I did have a decent night’s sleep last night, and woke up this morning, with a wine glass in my hand, who’s wine, what wine, where the hell did I dine?  Ahhh, a little Peter Frampton today.. .But really I woke up this morning feeling better, so maybe, just maybe, today will be a healing day!  Blood, Sweat, and Tears take us to the finish line today with their mega hit song: You’ve Made Me So Very Happy…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

The Dollar Gets Sold To Start The Week…

Rocktober 17, 2023

* currencies & metals rally on Monday

* Why does the mass media fail to mention bankruptcies?

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, the construction guy told me yesterday that they were in the home stretch, which means I’ll have my basement back to where I want it! There’s still a lot of crafty wood work to do, painting and laying carpet upstairs, but as soon as my basement is finished, I’ll be happy! I won’t care how long it takes them to fix the rest of the house! Well, actually I do, but, you know what I’m saying…  I’ve been much better since last Thrusday regarding bleeding, so I have that going for me! The bad part now, is how the chemo is affecting my stomach… YUCK!  I go for a blood draw this morning after I hit send, to make sure the chemo isn’t affecting some other organ! The Greg Kihn band greets me this morning with their song: Remember…  
Well, the dollar turned around yesterday, and got sold again to start the week… The BBDXY was down 4 index points on the day, and the euro added a bit more to its 1.05 handle. The Petrol Currencies got on the stick yesterday, and finally began to move upward alongside the price of Oil…  Gold & Silver saw selling all day yesterday, and ended the day with a $1,920.70 price in Gold, and $22.70 in Silver…  
On kitco.com last night they had this recap for Gold & Silver: ” Gold and silver prices are a bit weaker in midday U.S. trading Monday, on normal downside corrections and profit taking from the shorter-term futures traders following last week’s solid gains. Rising U.S. Treasury yields to start the trading week were also a bearish daily outside market element for the precious metals markets.”
Chuck again… speaking of rising Treasury yields… The 10-year’s yield rose to 4.73% yesterday, and is back on the selling block… I told you yesterday, that I’ve been watching the recent Treasury auctions, and they have been quite ugly, with little to no interest being paid to the issues at current levels…  And that means that the yields will have go higher to attract buyers…  It’s simple Simon, folks… 
And if you want proof that the Fed Heads were in buying Treasuries when the 10-year’s yield fell from 4.76 to 4.61%, well look no further than where the 10-year’s yield has gone since then…  Yes, right back to 4.76%, which to me is proof enough that intervention was done, on one day, and then went away… 
The price of Oil is stuck in the mud with an $86 handle as of last night… 
In the overnight markets last night…. There was little to no movement in the dollar, with the dollar inching higher, but the move is insignificant. Silver is flat as a pancake (Head East) this morning, while Gold is up $4 in the early trading today… 
Well, I’ve read some articles 1. from Kitco, and 2. from CNBC, who both are calling for Gold to soar in the 4th QTR of this year… That’s not that far away folks… Did you back up the truck? There’s still time, even though Gold was up $64 on Friday last week…   $64 will be a drop in the bucket compared to the levels that these two research teams laid out…  And then we had this: “Billionaire bond king Jeffrey Gundlach says: “Gold is going to go a lot higher.” 
Now, I know I’ve warned you before about being careful when companies talked about something glowingly, and that is that they probably are long the “something” and need people to buy so the price goes up… But this may be different this time, in that Gold is due for a breakout price upward movement… And, it was written that 97.6% of the wealthy own Gold… Hmmm… wanna play a rich man?  Got Gold? 
The Swiss franc has rebounded from its selloff after the SNB left rates earlier this month. A flight to safety with all the geopolitical mess going on in the world these days, certainly gets the franc pushed to front and center, on trading lists… 
And in a sign of the times, giant pharmacy, Rite Aide, has file for bankruptcy… There have been a very large number of companies that have gone under this year, I’m surprised that the mass media hasn’t reported on that… But then that doesn’t sell the story of a strong and resilient economy, now does it? No, it doesn’t! 
The good folks at www.wallstreetonparade.com  has this to say about JPMorgan this morning: “JPMorgan Chase suffered outflows of deposits in every quarter of 2022. It got a brief respite from inflows of deposits in the first quarter of 2023, as a result of the March banking panic that impacted smaller banks, then outflows took hold again. Excluding the deposits from First Republic Bank, JPMorgan Chase has lost $248.38 billion in deposits over the span of the last seven quarters. One doesn’t expect that at a bank that continues to trumpet its “fortress balance sheet.”
Chuck again, I have to think that if this is happening at the Big Kahuna, then it’s happening all over to the rest of the banks… Scary, isn’t it?  You don’t think that this has anything to do with the shoving digital currencies down our throats do you? I mean, I see this as a way for people to have cash on hand, just in case, and when I say “in hand”, that’s exactly the point… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard doesn’t have much for us this morning, once again, but tomorrows Data Cupboard has  3 real economic reports, so the Gov’t is saving all their bullets for one shot!  There are more Fed Head speakers today…  Shoot Rudy, I remember when you never heard from these knuckleheads, and these days, hardly a day goes by without one of them speaking their minds…  
To recap… There was more slippage in the dollar yesterday, and Gold & Silver saw “corrections” of their blast upward pricing last Friday. There’s just not that much going on in the markets to start the day today, the dollar is flat, Silver is flat, and Gold is up $4 to start the day today… There’s no data worth the paper it’s printed on, and the pharmacy giant Rite Aide is filing for bankruptcy… And Chuck reports on a mass exit of deposits at the Big Kahuna Bank JPMorgan Chase… 
And I wanted to talk about something here before we head to the Big Finish today… The Olympic Committee approved Squash and Flag Football as Olympic Sports… But failed to include Baseball and softball… What, no baseball? You’ve got to be kidding me! Squash? Flag Football? But no baseball? Jiminy Crickets, what the heck is going on in the world these days? 
For What It’s Worth… well, I never knew that all you had to do to steal large sums of Gold and Cash was to show up with a phony waybill… But that’s what this article explains to us regarding the great Canadian Airport Gold heist last year, and it can be read here: New details about $20M Toronto airport gold heist revealed in lawsuit | National Post
Or, here’s your snippet: “After months of silence, the lawsuit paints the clearest picture yet of how April’s Pearson Airport gold heist was allegedly pulled off.

The shock Toronto airport heist of $20 million in gold bars — weighing 400.19 kilograms — along with US$2 million in cash was as easy as walking into Air Canada’s cargo facility, showing a false waybill, and leaving with the enormous haul, according to a lawsuit filed in court.
It was gone 42 minutes after it was unloaded from a plane arriving from Switzerland and transferred to a supposedly secure warehouse on the periphery of Toronto’s Pearson airport, according to the statement of claim.
New details about $20M Toronto airport gold heist revealed in Brink’s suit against Air Canada.
Air Canada’s cargo holding facility at Toronto’s Pearson airport.

The theft, one of the largest in Canadian history, remains unsolved by police. Brink’s, a secure transport company, is now suing Air Canada over the lost loads.”

Chuck again, yes, Brinks is suing the airport facility for lack of security, saying their security was woeful… And I would agree with them!  So somewhere someone has a large sum of money to spend, which reminds me of the lyrics to a Steely Dan song: Bad sneakers and a piña colada, my friend

Stomping on the avenue by Radio City with a Transistor and a large sum of money to spend….
Market Prices 10/17/2023: American Style: A$ .6364, kiwi .5901, C$ .7337, euro 1.0577, sterling 1.2189, Swiss $1.1113, European Style: rand 18.8114, krone 10.9376, SEK 10.8962, forint 364.05, zloty 4.1901. koruna 23.2431, RUB 97.31, yen 149.40, sing 1.3683, HKD 7.8228, INR 83.26, China 7.3128, peso 17.93, BRL 5.0401, BBDXY 1,270.40, Dollar Index 106.12, Oil $86.99, 10-year 4.76%, Silver $22.70, Platinum $898.00, Palladium $1,345.00, Copper $3.57, and Gold… $1,924.04
That’s it for today… A bad morning for me, as I couldn’t shake the sleep out of me… I was sleepwalking through the first part of the letter today… UGH!  Then I could smell the coffee that Kathy was brewing, and it woke me up! And now I’m full of you know what and vinegar to start the day! The baseball playoffs continue with The Championship Series in each league, to determine who goes to the World Series… The Phillies look unbeatable in the NL, and the surprising Rangers are up 2-0 to the Astros… Two teams that mash the baseball, now that would be a good World Series, I think…  Our Blues don’t get back on the ice until Thursday night, so it’s baseball playoffs for me… The Main Ingredient takes us to the finish line today with their 70’s song: Everybody Plays the Fool…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

A Silver Tsunami!

Rocktober 16, 2023

* Currencies & metals rally last Friday… 

* Bonds to dictate where we go from here? 

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my house is coming back to life… The flood that we experienced, and ruined half of the house, is just a memory now, and the workers are really making some headway, each day with putting it all back together.  Saturday was little Evie’s 4th birthday party, for the family, and I got to see one of my fave people in the world, Kristin Kuchem! Sunday, my boys, Andrew and Alex were here to help us do some heavy lifting of stuff, and Alex had BIG NEWS! I’m not allowed to tell you just yet, but, I’m sure most of you will get the hint of what his news was… Eric Carmen greets me this morning with his song: All By Myself… 
Well bust my buttons! Did you see what Gold did on Friday last week?  It was a star performer for sure, gaining $64 for the day… No interference, no short paper trades, in sight… The stupid media folks all pointed to the conflict in Israel for Gold’s move… And I say balderdash! If that were anywhere near the truth, then why did it take a week of trading for that to happen?  Silver also had a good day, gaining 94-cents…  Here’s Ed Steer’s thoughts on the metals’ move last Friday: 
“There was a lot of talk in mainstream media and on various gold sites about the effect that the war was having on gold and silver prices yesterday. If that was the case, why wasn’t that allowed to happen last Sunday night when the markets opened at 6:00 p.m. in New York? There were price spikes higher in both gold and silver then but were capped and driven lower immediately.

Ted was surprised that the commercial traders were able to keep gold and silver prices under wraps from last Friday’s low tick — and why they waited until this Friday to allow them to rally sharply, remains a mystery. However, yesterday’s price action was so smooth, that it looked totally managed to me, especially in the fifteen minutes following the COMEX open in both — and appeared to be a strictly GLOBEX/COMEX trading affair. It had little to do with current events in the Middle East, which have been in progress for a week already.
Gold had its biggest one-day move that I can remember — and in the process, closed above both its 50 and 200-day moving averages. Yes, volume was heavy…which was to be expected…but the increase in its total open interest was only tiny.” -Ed Steer, www.edsteergoldsilver.com 
The dollar took a back seat to Gold last Friday, and for once in a blue moon, the dollar wasn’t the big kahuna trading vehicle… The dollar was losing ground, early Friday, and then suddenly it turned on a dime and ended up gaining 3 index points on the day in the BBDXY Index. The dollar had been on a losing streak in recent trading days, so this was more of a relief move in my humble country boy opinion…  Can you say PPT entered?  I knew you could! 
The price of Oil shot up $4.87 on Friday, to end the week trading with an $87 handle… the goings on in the Middle East is to blame for the increase in price here… And just when the Gov’t handlers all thought that they had inflation whipped! Not going to happen, yet that is… And if this doesn’t spell Fed Head action, I don’t know what does… The yield on the 10-year has dropped to 4.61%…  Interveners… I wouldn’t put it past them! 
In the overnight markets last night… The dollar has lost some of its luster that it had gained Friday afternoon, and the BBDXY is down 2.5 index points this morning to start the week. Something weird is going on in Gold, as it has followed up Friday’s $64 gain by getting sold early this morning, and is down $18 as I write… Silver is down 22-cents to start the week too… Profit taking? Hard to say for sure, but if there’s anything going on with the short paper traders, I’m sure they have their hands in the cookie jar this morning… 
And even though the dollar is down a bit this morning, the currencies’ lofty levels of late last week, are nowhere to be seen this morning… The euro has dropped back to a 1.05 handle, and the rest of the currencies are all looking weaker as we start the week. Even the Petrol Currencies, haven’t exactly gotten on the rally horse this morning… Not to say that they won’t, it just that they haven’t at this point.  The 10-year Treasury has seen the roller coaster that’s been its yield, rise again to 4.70% this morning… Why can’t the price manipulators just leave one market alone? Sheesh! 
The weekend is always good for amassing lots of articles that come my way from different sources… First off, last Thursday, the Stupid CPI for September printed, and the core CPI rose to 4.1%… And the non-core was 3.7%, which was higher by .1% from the previous month… Recall that I told you long ago that inflation was sticky, and it appears to be just that as we closed out the fiscal year in Sept, with an hedonically adjusted CPI of 4.1%, which was down from a few months ago, but still even with all the “adjustments” that the BLS does to the number, was sticky… 
I have something for you in the FWIW section today that talks about how Oil prices dropping, and house prices dropping, that there are still things that we use everyday, that are still seeing huge increases in prices… So, you won’t want to have missed that… FYI, John Williams at www.shadowstats.com has inflation running, using 1980 methods of accounting at 12.5%… Now.. That feels about right!
I ordered my spring training tickets on Saturday, and was shocked at how much I pay per ticket for Spring Training games these days… When I first went to Spring Training in St. Pete in 1994, tickets were $10! The are now 3 fold what they were then… UGH!  
I was reading Grant Williams’ TTMYGH letter yesterday, and in he describes how today’s bond environment is very similar to 1994’s bond massacre…  I haven’t read it all yet, so I have more reading to do…. 
 I’ve been watching the bond auctions, and they have been ugly lately, and weak demand could be a ‘canary in the coal mine….  If you get my drift… Don’t get it? Well, you came to the right place!  When the Treasury has to auction new bonds, first of all they are at higher rates, which is already bad, but if the interest in these bonds isn’t what it should be, then the yields have to go higher to attract buyers… And if that doesn’t do the trick… Then the Treasury will buy the bonds back, now… you may be asking, why would they need to sell them in the first place, if they could buy them back?  Ahhhh, grasshopper, that’s a very good question that me, myself and I have pondered, and haven’t come up with an answer just yet…  
We know that when the Fed bought bonds, they just printed money to pay for them… But the Treasury handed over their control of the money supply to the Fed a very long time ago… So, the Treasury doesn’t have money, can’t print it and spend it…  When the Fed bought bonds, they called it Quantitative Easing… Who knows what the Treasury will call their little soiree into bond buying! 
And did you hear about that nimrod, Paul Krugman and his comment on inflation? Economist and Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman has declared victory over inflation. “The war on inflation is over,” he said in a recent tweet. “We won, at very little cost.”
Ahem… Paul, old buddy, (NOT!) you forgot to add in food, shelter, energy, and cars… Shoot Paul, why didn’t you remove fax machines from your exclusions? What a dolt!  Oh well, let me spout off about the victory over inflation, we all know the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth about inflation!  And pretty soon, the Nobel Prize people will be knocking on your door, Paul, and asking for their Prize for Economics back! 
And then there’s this from Yahoo Finance: ” Many baby boomers across the country are now coming to terms with the hard reality that working for your entire adult life is no longer enough to guarantee you’ll have a roof over your head in your later years.

Thanks in part to a series of recessions, high housing costs and a shortage of affordable housing, older adults are now the fastest-growing segment of America’s homeless population, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal, based on data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Chuck again… They’re calling it a Siver Tsunami! 
The U.S. data Cupboard this week starts out lacking with only some Fed Heads speaking… But tomorrow, and onward we’ll see Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and others… So, get ready for some damaging economic prints, at least that’s how I see it playing out… 
To recap… Gold was on the loose on Friday, and gained $64!  A lot of pent up frustration on the part of Gold buyers, finally played out… The dollar was down Friday morning, only to turn on a dime and head higher the rest of the day… Chuck believes that the PPT were in there buying dollars… Bonds are a mess these days, and Chuck brings back Grant Williams to the stage!  
For What It’s Worth… I’ve got a real treat for you today… A longtime acquaintance Addison Wiggin changes the words to the Clash’s song: Rock The Casbah…. So… you need to know the song, and read his missive like the song goes… This is really good folks, i wish I had thought of this! It can be found here: Rock The Casbah – The Wiggin Sessions
Or, here’s your snippet: “Suggestion: Today’s missive will flow better if you read as if you’re listening to the 1982 punk anthem “Rock The Casbah” by The Clash. And a sip of gin.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers
came out yesterday… ay, yee, ayyyah.
Inflation remains at 3.7%
Higher than JPow wants to say.
Worse, it’s much higher…er.
For basic necessitie_ee_ees:
T’will put consumers on their knee-ee-ees.
Loudspeaker:
1. Car Insurance Inflation: 18.9%
2. Car Repair Inflation: 10.2%
3. Transportation Inflation: 9.1%
4. Rent Inflation: 7.4%
5. Homeowner Inflation: 7.1%
6. Food Away From Home Inflation: 6.0%
7. Meat & Poultry Inflation: 4.8%
(Source: The Kobeissi Letter)
We don’t have ‘deflation”… nyet. Nyet. Nyet.
It’s worse, it’s dis-inflation. Yet. Yet.
As confusing as it is…
The rate of inflation is decli-in-ing. (It is!)
But prices are still going up.
You work at your job
And try to fill your cup
Troubling truth is…
A buck and worth what it was
Jerome dooon’t like it. But…
Prices’re getting worse.
Jerome don’t like it…
Inflation’ll steal your purse.
What’s the Fed gonna do?
We don’t know.
They gave up on multiple hikes in a row.
Now odds are 50%/50%…
They’ll hike before year’s end.
What’s their real goal?
You gotta spend, spend, spend.
What really happens next?
The T-note yield goes boom.
The Fed’s in a noose.
They’ve got no wriggle room.
Jerome doon’t like it…
When bond yields rise… stocks must fall.
Jerome, he don’t like it…
Even tech stocks must fall, yeah.
The melody begins to wind down.
A voice over clip repeats: “Risk levels from inflation, unsustainable debt, market tops and war, are, sadly, fundamental symptoms of debt cycles and debt crises.”

Where do we go from here?”

Chuck again… great job Addison! It would be so much more fun if it weren’t true! 
Market Prices 10/16/ 2023: American Style: A$ .6328, kiwi .5925, C$ .7331, euro 1.0536, sterling 1.2173, Swiss $1.1084, European Style: rand 18.8188, krone 10.9245, SEK 10.9419, forint 367.66, zloty 4.2503, koruna 23.4580, RUB 97.22, yen 149.53, sing 1.3693, HKD 7.8174, INR 83.27, China 7.3122, peso 17.93, BRL 5.0784, BBDXY 1,271.86, Dollar Index 106.46, Oil $86.25, 10-year 4.70%, Silver $22.62, Platinum $878.00, Palladium $1,138.00, Copper $3.59, and Gold… $1,915.98
That’s it for today…  Well, the bleeding stopped Thursday morning, and hasn’t returned as yet… I had a bang ’em up, shoot ’em up weekend, that started Thursday with lunch with my spring training buddies, Rick and Dewey… Then Friday I met up with two of my longtime friends, Bill & Lynn…I already told you what I did Saturday, but I didn’t mention the great win by my beloved Mizzou Tigers on Saturday VS Kentucky! And our Blues home opener on Saturday night got them a win in a shootout… (still a stupid way to decide a game)  Man, was I happy as a lark about the outcome of the Mizzou/ Kentucky game!  Mizzou had been snake bitten by Kentucky that last few years, and it was good to see them beat them at their home! Eric Burdon and the Animals take us to the finish line today with their song: We Gotta Get Out Of This Place…   I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

The Fox Guards The Henhouse!

Rocktober 12. 2023

* currencies & metals rally on Wednesday

* the dollar has had 7 consecutive days of selling… 

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, I hate to have to do this, but this morning’s letter will be short-n-sweet, as I’m having a major bleeding problem this morning, and I have to deal witht that, instead of writing a letter… I’ve been through the gauntlet lately, with this bleeding in my jaw… Blood does not taste good, nor is it any good for your stomach… The silver lining of all this bleeding is that the tumor in my jaw is shrinking, and soon all this will be over, but for now… I deal with all the red stuff…  Sorry for the explicit explanation of my problems this morning, but as I’ve found out through the last 16 years, you dear readers want to know, what’s going on with me, so there!  Robert Plant greets me this morning with his song: Sea Of Love… 
So… dollar buying ended last week, and now it’s 7 consecutive days of dollar selling… The BBDXY had dropped from a high on 10/3 of 1,277, to 1,263, this morning… The euro has rebounded nicely, and trades with a 1.06 handle this morning. The rest of the currencies, sans Japanese yen, have followed the Big Dog euro off the porch to chase the dollar down the street.  Having a Fed Head, Governor Christopher Waller suggesting they may refrain from tightening further, the other day, didn’t help the dollar, that had been soaring on the thought that interest rates would remain higher, longer… But now traders are questioning whether the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel has the intestinal fortitude to carry through… 
I good bet if you ask me, because the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel has a long history of failing to carry through… I’m just saying… 
The conflict in Israel, lit the fire under the price of Oil, and it has begun a reversal of all the selling we saw for a few days last week, and with the price of Oil on the rebound., the Petrol Currencies, like Rubles, pesos, etc. have all been on the rebound vs the dollar. 
The price of Gold too, has rebounded, but still remains under any average price figure you want to use… But, with the geopolitical conflicts going on around the world, Gold has really picked up the pace of gains… Gold this morning is up $9 in the early trading, and Silver is up 14-cents to start the day… if you didn’t back up the truck and load up on Gold & Silver before this rally started, it’s still not to late to do so… I’m just saying…
The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday, has the Sept PPI, and it kind of shook the inflation is tamed folks to the bone… PPI was up .5%, following up on August’s .7% gain… And as I’ve explained many times in the past, what gains are seen on PPI (Wholesale inflation) are soon to show up in consumer inflation… 
Speaking of consumer inflation, the Stupid CPI will print today for Sept… The markets still, for some reason that I can’t figure out why they would, use this print as a guide for the dollar… So, any uptick in CPI will be viewed as the Fed Heads’ rate hikes haven’t worked… Uh-Oh…   of course I told you that that to get inflation down, you have to 1. raise the interest rate above the inflation rate, and 2. stop deficit spending… 
We haven’t done either, so when inflation comes back roaring, it won’t be any surprise to you and me… 
To recap… The dollar is getting sold again, so far today, marking 7 consecutive days of selling for the dollar. Gold is up and getting some love on the all the geopolitical goings on. And Fed Head, Waller, decided to throw the dollar under the bus with statements the other day… 
For What It’s Worth… I couldn’t pass this up  this morning… It’s about how JPM has been named as a watchdog for the U.S. Treasury… I can’t help but think of the old country saying about how the Fox was guarding the Hen House… The article can be found here: Janet Yellen’s Treasury Department Hires 5-Count Felon JPMorgan Chase to Look for Fraud (wallstreetonparade.com)
Or, here’s your snippet: “Immediately upon departing her post as Chair of the Federal Reserve, but prior to getting the nod from the Biden administration to become U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen engaged in what the courageous reporter at ProPublica, Jesse Eisinger, called a “two-fisted money grab from banks.” Yellen raked in more than $7 million in speaking fees with the bulk of that coming from Wall Street banks and trading houses, including JPMorgan Chase. In a Tweet, Eisinger said: “This is corruption, but isn’t called that because it’s so quotidian.”

Now there is the appearance that a quid pro quo is coming full circle.
According to a press release posted on JPMorgan Chase’s website, “it has been designated by the United States Treasury Department under a financial agency agreement to provide account validation services for federal government agencies” in order to ensure “Treasury’s commitment to payment integrity and the reduction of improper payments.”

Hiring JPMorgan Chase to ensure “payment integrity” is like the U.S. Treasury hiring Allen Weisselberg as its accountant. Since 2014, JPMorgan Chase has admitted to five separate criminal felony charges brought by the U.S. Department of Justice. The first two of those felony charges related to the bank ignoring brazen red flags as Ponzi kingpin, Bernie Madoff, laundered billions of dollars through the bank for years.”

Chuck again… Lies, and videotape… I just think of all the corruption going on in the govt and Wall Street, and think about the common man, and his quest for financial safety… Those two don’t mix… I’m just saying…
Market prices 10/12/2023: American Style: A$ .6406, kiwi .59998, C$ .7357, euro 1.0618, sterling 1.2308, Swiss $1.1106, European Style: rand 18.8129, krone 10.8492, SEK 10.8617, forint 363.47, zloty 4.2690, 
koruna 23.1471, RUB 97.12, yen 149.17, sing 1.3626, HKD 7.8214, INR 83.24, China 7.2996, peso 17.77, BRL 5.0507, BBDXY 1,263.84, Dollar Index 105.72, Oil $85.39, 10-year 4.55%, Silver $22.17, Platinum $881.00, Palladium $1,162.00, Copper $3.60, and Gold… $1,883.44
That’s it for today… Yesterday was little Evie’s 4th Birthday… I’m assuming she had a grand day, as I heard her on the phone with Kathy, and she sounded all excited! My two doctor visits were OK… The heart doc is happy with my colesteral numbers, and the Oncologist was happy with my weight loss… She wasn’t happy with all the bleeding I’ve had, and was looking into way to help me with that. As of yesterday when I stepped on the scale, I am now 120 lbs lighter than I was 3 years ago at this time… YAHOO!  Yes, 3 years ago, I stepped on a scale and couldn’t believe my eye… And decided then that I would do something about that, and I’m actually proud of myself for carrying through! All right then now I need to get this bleeding stopped… REM takes us to the finish line today with their song that’s quite appropriate for what’s going on these days: It’s The End of The World…   I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and will Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler 

Columbus Day 2023…

Rocktober 9, 2023

* Currencies & metals rally on Friday

* What the real Columbus Day holiday is about… 

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! This as mentioned previously will be a much-abbreviated Pfennig today, because… It IS A Holiday!  But since I won’t be writing the next two days, I thought I had better at least let you know I’m still here! Well, my beloved Mizzou Tigers couldn’t pull out a win on Saturday, so it’s back to the drawing board… Our Blues had a good exhibition game VS the Stars, so that was good… And my goodness did the temps drop this past weekend! I was shivering, all day yesterday…  My 50th Class Reunion was good… I told my wife on the way home, that I can’t believe I went to school with all those “old folks”! HA!  Robert Plant greets me this morning with his song: Big Log… 
Well, today, is Columbus Day… but soon the woke crowds will eliminate this holiday… They say that Columbus was a bad man… Well, that be, but that’s not what this holiday was all about! It was about celebrating the immigrants that had come to the country and were being mistreated. So… woke crowd, if there are any of you that read this letter, of which I kind of think there aren’t any, that’s the reason for the holiday, not just Columbus…  So, put that in your pipe and smoke it!  All this “cancelling” of our traditions, really upsets me… Without our pasts, we are nothing…  Ok, we’ll gon on to the letter from here, just wanted to get that off my chest today… 
The Jobs Jamboree last Friday was a sight to see… That is if you believe in fairy tales… The BLS said that job creation in September was to beat the band… Here’s Yahoo Finance with their thoughts: “The US economy added 336,000 jobs in September, highlighting concern that the labor market isn’t cooling as fast as the Federal Reserve would like in its battle against inflation.

The nonfarm payroll additions were nearly double the 170,000 economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected. Revisions to the August and July jobs reports released Friday showed there were 119,000 more jobs created during those months than previously reported…

Notice the comment about how 119,000 jobs that were previously reported as created, were reversed?  I’m sure that in a few months we’ll see a revision of the Sept. report… But, the report was good enough curb appeal to get the dollar bugs all riled up and they sent the dollar higher on the news of the report.  You see, with job creation so strong, that puts a damper on the Fed Heads’ thought that they had inflation on the run, and now the markets believe the Fed / Cabal/ Cartel will hike rates again… 
Gold finally saw a n up day on Friday! Gold gained $12.90 to end the week at $1,834.10, and Silver gained $64-cents, to end the week at $21.70… While the thoughts of sugar plums danced in their heads, no, wait! While the thoughts of higher interest rates should have led to metals getting sold, the thought here is that if rates are going higher, the damage to the economy will be greater, and therefore the Chicken Littles, were out in force, and that helped Gold gain on the day… 
The 10-year’s yield rose to 4.80% on Friday before closing at 4.79%… The bond boys see rates going higher too… And the price of Oil was steady on Friday and ended the week with an $82 handle. 
In the overnight markets last night… Well, the selling of the dollar went to the roadside, and buying it came back with vengeance… The BBDXY has gained 3 index points to start the day and week. The selling of Gold ended last Friday, and overnight Gold has gained $15 to start the week. Silver is down 7-cents to start the day.  The war that has started in Israel, has the price of Oil on the rebound, and it trades this morning with an $86 handle, up $3 to start the week.  There was no movement in the 10-year’s yield overnight. so we start the week at 4.79%… I can’t help but think that since the 10-year’s yield visited 4.83% last week, that it will return there soon… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard today and this week, is lacking at best…  There’s nothing on the docket to rock the markets, and only a list of Fed Head speakers fill the docket… 
To recap… Gold & Silver finally had positive days on Friday… The Jobs Jamboree said that there were 336,000 jobs created in September… And that had the rate hike boosters on high alert, and that meant that the higher rates would damage the U.S. economy, and that’s what had Gold moving higher on Friday, and the dollar buying sent to the showers for the day… The overnight markets returned to dollar buying. 
For What It’s Worth… This is a very interesting article, folks… It’s from Zerohedge.com and it’s about how the Government is lying to us… If you’re not into that, then have a nice day, and I’ll talk again to you on Thursday… If you are into that then click here: “This Will Make Your Blood Boil” – Biden Admin Goes Full Orwell Denying Vaxx Mandates Ever Happened | ZeroHedge
Or, here’s your snippet: “If you have not yet read the book 1984 by George Orwell, you absolutely must.

I loathed that novel when I read it as a teen, because I hated the entire idea of an authoritarian government controlling its people so deftly. The dystopian world it described was just so depressing, so wrong, from the first page to the last. And yet, here we are, almost 75 years after Orwell first penned the book, and we see how that hellish science fiction novel is now playing out before us.
Even the left-leaning Wikipedia describes the book as a “cautionary tale” whose theme centers on “the consequences of totalitarianism, mass surveillance and repressive regimentation of people and behaviours within society.” Modeled on the authoritarian states of Stalin’s Soviet Union and of Nazi Germany, the book takes a deep dive into the role of truth within a society, and the ways in which truth and facts can be manipulated by government to control the population.
What you saw and heard with your own eyes and your own ears, the government denied and demanded you cast it aside and not believe it.
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
― George Orwell, 1984
Through the Ministry of Truth, the government (referred to in the book as “Big Brother” or “the Party”) engages in endless propaganda, intense surveillance, and the open and obvious negating of historical fact. Individual thought, and questioning of authority led to immediate persecution. Why deny facts and rewrite history? Well, as Orwell says in the book,
“Who controls the past controls the future. Who controls the present controls the past.”
― George Orwell, 1984
Now let’s fast-forward to the present day. I will begin with this profound statement that keeps churning over in my head:
They must really think we are stupid!
The “they” is our government (federal and state). The “we” is you and me, and the other 300+ million Americans across our country.
Alas, here we are, entering the final quarter of 2023, and we have the United States government, and many state governments (including New York’s former Governor Andrew Cuomo, current left-wing Governor Kathy Hochul, and the super-majority Dem legislature) proclaiming for all to hear that they did not force anyone to do anything detrimental these past 3.5 years. UNBELIEVABLE! Did you hear this? They are actually saying with straight faces that they didn’t force you to wear a mask, or lock down and shutter your businesses, or choose between taking an experimental drug or losing your job… Nope! They did none of that. And you – well, you are flat out crazy if you think they did. You are lying. You are exaggerating and totally overreacting.

Unfortunately for Big Brother, ooops, I mean unfortunately for our 100 percent reliable, never-lies-to-us government, we have actual documents (including lawsuits), news stories, social media posts, and videos of the government at all levels mandating and forcing us to do all of those things, and more. Here’s just one example of Biden himself, the “Big Guy,” mandating the C19 shot:”

Chuck again… a long snippet, I know, but this is so important, I think, to let you know not to believe what the Gov’t tells us is the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth…  Yes… I’m jaded, regarding the Gov’t… 
Market Prices 10/9/2023: American Style: A$ .6364, kiwi .5978, C$ .7320, euro 1.0528, sterling 1.2166, Swiss $1.0989, European Style: rand 19.4002, krone 10.9110, SEK 11.0283, forint 369.19, zloty 4.3503, koruna 23.2684, RUB 101.83, yen 149.16, sing 1.3693, HKD 7.8301, INR 83.27, China 7.2912, peso 18.29, BRL 5.1699, BBDXY 1,274.35, Dollar Index 106.53, Oil $86.25, 10-year 4.79%, Silver $21.63, Platinum $886.00, Palladium $1,147.00, Copper $3.59, and Gold… $1,849.18
That’s it for today… I really am fed up with the lies and videotape of the Gov’t… We need leaders that speak the truth, no matter how damaging it is… Get it out there and let THE PEOPLE decide, and not just the minority groups! As I look back at what I wrote this morning, it wasn’t as “abbreviated” as I thought it would be… That’s not surprising to you is it? I do tend to get carried away at times… Well, my beloved Mizzou Tigers couldn’t hold a lead on Saturday, and ended up losing their first game to LSU… UGH!  The NHL regular season starts this week… Go Blues! The Little River Band takes us to the finish line today with their song: Cool Change…  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler 

Is It Safe To Come Back Out Now?

Rocktober 5, 2023

*dollar wavers yesterday… 

* BOJ intervenes on Tuesday to help yen… 

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Oh, the tangled web we weave…  Yes, yesterday, was a strange day for me… First of all the sun wasn’t out… Second, it wasn’t as warm as it had been, so sitting outside was a bit chilly for me… and with all the noise in the house from the rebuilding of our infrastructure, I couldn’t get my daily nap in, so… the day toiled on and on and on, and then it hit me right between the eyes… I needed to do some reasearch and reading!  Then when I began to read, I felt woozy, and well, I finally fell asleep… I slept the rest of the day away, so in the end, the day didn’t exist for me!  The Black Keys greet me this morning with their song: Gold On The Ceiling… 
The dollar yesterday traded flat all day, after being down 2 index points overnight, so in the end, the BBDXY lost 2 index points yesterday… That’s a pimple on a hog’s rear, compared to the 9 point gain the dollar had earlier this week… But it did show that the dollar can be sold… As it was the night before… Gold fought all day to go green, but ended up red, down $1.60 on the day to close at $1,822.00, and Silver couldn’t find a bid yesterday, losing 13-cents to close at $21.09… The euro kept its 1.05 handle, while the Russian ruble finally succumbed to the selling and closed over 100 yesterday… The Japanese yen, as I told you yesterday, had averted the 150 level the day before, and now it appears that the reason for this rally was Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervention… They BOJ won’t admit to any intervention, but at the same time they won’t deny it either…  But just in the way the yen rallied for one day, it had to be BOJ intervention… We’ll have to wait-n-see if the BOJ comes back for more, or was this a one and done… 
The price of Oil saw a huge selloff yesterday, with Oil losing $3 on the day to end the day with an $84 handle… Suddenly, the markets are taking notice that the economy is teetering, and the consumer is plum out of cash to spend, and with consumption a large piece of GDP, that spells trouble…   So, depleted supplies, can’t hold a candle to economic fears it appears…  And this was on the newswires this morning: “US gasoline seasonal demand fell to the lowest since 1998″… like I said, the summer driving season is over… Uh-Oh… 
And the 10-year’s march to 5% was interrupted yesterday, with some major buying… Wait! What? Yes, someone or some entity bought a boat load of bonds yesterday, and the 10-year’s yield dropped to 4.71%, when just the day before it had reached 4.80%…  I have something in a bit on the U.S. Treasury buying back bonds, but in this case I think it was the Fed Heads once again intervening in the bond market… 
And then one more thought on the commodities from Ed Steer this morning… “One would think we’re done to the downside after yesterday’s price action — and with gold and silver severely oversold, there’s not much left for the commercial traders to get out of the Managed Money traders. Although not oversold…platinum, palladium and copper look pretty much done as well. It’s just too bad that yesterday’s data won’t be in tomorrow’s Commitment of Traders or Bank Participation Reports. And me being the suspicious type, that price smash in WTIC — and close below its 50-day moving average, looked premeditated to me.” – Ed Steer from www.edsteergoldsilver.com 
One currency that has really dropped in recent days is the Swiss franc… And yesterday, it dropped below $1.09, when the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September came in at 1.7% YoY vs. 1.6% prior, worse than expected. OK, maybe it’s me because I’m so jaded, but wouldn’t it be nice if our inflation was 1.7%?  Just goes to show you that it’s all relative…  I’m just saying… 
In the overnight markets last night…  There was little to no movement, and any movement was downward for the dollar. But, really, we’re trading in the same clothes as yesterday’s close…  The BBDXY is 1.274 this morning, Gold & Silver are flat as a pancake (Head East) , with copper and Oil the only downward moves that are noticeable. The price of Oil has slid another $2, to trade with an $82 handle this morning, while Copper, which on the last trading day in July held a $4.00 price, has been reduced to a price of $3.57… And don’t think for a minute that the short paper trades let Copper slide for one minute, because they don’t! 
So, we start today, wondering if all the selling of the currencies, metals, Oil, and other commodities is over… If it is, then it’s time to back up the truck, folks… And pick up some of these beaten down assets, at bargain basement prices!  One currency to steer clear of is the Japanese yen, but then you already knew that, and it was not necessary for me to remind you! Sorry about that! 
I found this on the Fed St. Louis’ (FRED) site: “Under current policy and based on this report’s assumptions, [government debt relative to GDP] is projected to reach 566 percent by 2097. The projected continuous rise of the debt-to-GDP ratio indicates that current policy is unsustainable.”

—Financial Report of the United States Government, February 16, 2023

So, basically the Fed Heads know that the rise in debt is unsustainable, but when will this come to a head? The Fed folks don’t provide that info, so it remains that only the Shadow Knows… 
Right now the Debt to GDP is running at 130%… It was written in an education paper years ago, that any percentage above 95%, would lead to devastation for an economy…  
Addison Wiggin had this yesterday regarding where we’re going as a country: “McCarthy is the first Speaker of the House to be formally removed from the post in US History. Now, we’re in uncharted territory indeed.

To which, we repeat these ominous words from the economic historian Niall Ferguson:

This decade will not be identical to the 1970s. Now will it replicate the experience of the 1920s or the 1940s. But the idea that we can recover from the fiscal and monetary excesses of the past three years without economic pain—at a time of political polarization and geopolitical conflict—seems historically implausible.” 

You know… it’s difficult to remember sometimes, just how we all got into this mess… But leave it to Bill Bonner to remind us… Here’s Bill in his daily letter yesterday talking about Housing Cracks… “But the cracks and crumbling aren’t limited to the housing sector. The basic building brick for the whole world’s financial edifice is the US 10-year T-bond. Yesterday, the real yield (adjusted for inflation) on the 10-year rose to 2.27%. That was what it was in January 2009, just after Ben Bernanke began his disastrous ultra-low rate fantasy (as if you could actually make people better off by falsifying the cost of capital!)…the proximate cause of today’s financial distress.  
Until Bernanke went off the rails, the US financial system retained at least the appearance of sanity. It could walk and talk, more or less like a normal economy.  People remembered where they lived; they could still get home.  
It cost money (positive interest rates) to borrow back then…which limited debt to what people could afford. But then, after the Fed dragged interest rates below zero, in real terms, the sky was the limit. That is what made the US financial world what it became – 2009-2020 – cloud cuckoo land, where fake capitalists borrowed fake money at fake interest rates in order to make fake profits.

Those profits disappear when the whole fake hullabaloo comes to an end. Then, we suddenly sober up, look for our car keys….and try to remember how to get home.” – Bill Bonner  from his Bonner Private Research letter 10/5/2023 

 
The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the August Factory Orders, which were negative in July, but August printed a positive 1.2% gain… That gain corresponds to the uptick we saw in the ISM that I reported on earlier this week. Things aren’t hunky dorey, in the economy, but they aren’t dire straits either, at least not yet, that is… It’s all window dressing that’s hiding the rot on the vine in the economy, folks… And sooner or later, it will be exposed, and when it does, Katy bar the door! (a warnig of approaching trouble)  There’s just too much debt in the system to get anything real done, folks… And the sooner the markets realize that, the sooner the dollar gets hammered once again… 
We also saw the ADP Employment Report for September, and it showed 177,000 jobs added to the payrolls in September… That’s not bad, but then again, it’s not good, and plays along with the Factory Orders and ISM… doesn’t it?  Longtime readers will recall me saying at times in the past that I truly believe that the ADP would be a better gauge of the employment in this country, than the hedonically adjusted BLS report, which will print tomorrow… At least there wouldn’t be flown under the cover of darkness, revisions to the jobs reports , like there are with the BS, I mean BLS reports… 
So, like I just said, the BS, I mean BLS jobs report will print on Friday… I’ll tell you all about their lies, on Monday morning, when I report to you on Columbus Day! 
 
To recap… the dollar got sold, rubles got sold, Oil got sold, and bonds got bought… Hmmm…  Interesting, very interesting, but stupid! The dollar’s 2 index point loss in the BBDXY that started yesterday morning, didn’t fudge from that all day, so the index lost 2 points… As Chuck pointed out it was a pimple on a hog’s rear, compared to the 9 point gain the index posted earlier this week. Suddenly it appears, the markets have come to the conclusion that the economy is teetering… Maybe, they as a whole, are reading my letter?  HA! AS IF! 
 
For What It’s Worth…  Ok, I’ve talked endlessly about the bond sell off, and have talked about the losses in bonds until my words become so repetative that they get passed over… But this article really gets to the gist of the rate rises and what the bonds have done, and it can be found here: Long Bonds’ Historic 46% Meltdown Rivals Burst of Dot-Com Bubble – Bloomberg
 
Or, here’s your snippet: “Losses on longer-dated Treasuries are beginning to rival some of the most notorious market meltdowns in US history.
Bonds maturing in 10 years or more have slumped 46% since peaking in March 2020, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s just shy of the 49% plunge in US stocks in the aftermath of the dot-com bust at the turn of the century. The rout in 30-year bonds has been even worse, tumbling 53%, nearing the 57% slump in equities during the depths of the financial crisis.
The extent of the losses is a stark reminder of the risk that comes with piling into longer-dated bonds, where prices are the most sensitive to changes in interest rates. That was part of the appeal of the securities as the Federal Reserve spent the better part of a decade cutting borrowing costs to near zero.
But as the central bank has carried out the most aggressive monetary-policy tightening in decades to rein in runaway inflation, the mix of historically low starting yields, long-maturity debt and rapidly rising rates has proven to be a painful combination.
“It’s quite something,” said Thomas di Galoma, co-head of global rates trading at BTIG and a four-decade market veteran. “To be honest with you, I had never thought I would see 5% 10-year notes ever again. We got caught in an environment post global financial crisis where everybody just thought rates were going to remain low.”
The current losses in long-maturity debt more than double the next biggest slump in 1981, when then Fed Chair Paul Volcker’s campaign to break the back of inflation drove 10-year yields to almost 16%.

It also surpassed the 39% average loss in seven US equity bear markets since 1970, including last year’s 25% slump in the S&P 500 when the Fed started to lift rates from near zero.”

Chuck Again… And now there’s no wonder we had banking a crisis last spring, and the banking losses are still out there stirring and will boil up at some point, just be ready for that!   
Market Prices 10/5/2023: American Style: A$ .6348, kiwi .5941, C$ .7269, euro 1.0525, sterling 1.2142, Swiss $1.0921, European Style: rand 19.5537, krone 11.0037, SEK 11.4037, forint 367.89, zloty 4.3692, koruna 23.2001, RUB 99.86, yen 148.90, sing 1.3766, HKD 7.8292, INR 83.25, China 7.2980, peso 18.08, BRL 5.1579, BBDXY 1,274.79, Dollar Index 106.68, Oil $82.83, 10-year 4.72%, Silver $21.11, Platinum $806.00, Palladium $1,159.00, Copper $3.57, and Gold… $1,822.30
That’s it for today, and this week of course… So, next week, a very short and abbreviated Colombus Day Pfennig on Monday, then no Pfennig Tues & Wed, but back on Thursday… Got it! Good! Good luck to my beloved Mizzou Tigers on Saturday, as they play host to LSU…  Bot teams use Tigers as their team name…  Congrats to the Twins, Diamondbacks, Phillies, and Rangers who all won their best of 3 games playoff series 2-0… Sweeps…. all of them!  A cold front came through here yesterday, and left us with normal autumn temperatures… it’ll be a rainy day today, all day, so I’m stuck inside with all the construction noise! UGH! Oh well, it has to get done, to get our house back to normal again! I feel great again this morning, so it looks like my system has finally accepted the new chemo… YAHOO! The Byrds take us to the finish line today with their song: Eight Miles High…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a Fantastico Friday tomorrow, Go Tigers! Please Be Good To Yourself! 
Chuck Butler

Treasury To Do Buy Backs?

Rocktober 4, 2023

* Currencies & metals get sold on Tuesday… 

* Dollar buying ends overnight, for one session at least! 

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Pfennig Alert! Next Monday is Columbus Day, which I’ve always observed, with a day off… I’ll have something for you on Monday, but it won’t be much… Then there will be no Pfennig on Tues & Weds next week… Oncologist & Heart Doctor appts will be my destinations those early mornings… I said yesterday that I thought I was on my way to a good day, and a good day it was! No stomach problems, no bleeding, I almost felt normal again! Maybe, just maybe, cause you never know, my system is finally accepting the new chemo… Wishin, and hopin, and thinkin and prayin (Dusty Springfield) that’s what I’m doing, so that I can get back to being Chuck! The GREAT Ray Charles greets me this morning with his song: You Don’t Know Me… 
Well… the dollar buying continued yesterday, as the BBDXY added 3 index points to its total and ended the day at 1,277.87…  The euro, the dollar’s offset currency, continued to drop… One month ago, the euro was trading 1.0745, and yesterday it closed at 1.0445…Two months ago the euro was sniffing around 1.10!  So, this is how strong the dollar’s run has been folks, and right now, it certainly looks overbought to me… 
Michael Hartnet of B of A, recently told a crowd to : stay in hard assets, the dollar is going to get hit!  Ok, but when Michael? Oh, I know I’m being tough on the Beaver, but June, he left that wide open!  But it’s nice that he talked about owning Gold, land, and other hard assets… 
Sounds a lot like my suggestion in the interview that I had with Dennis Miller, for his www.milleronthemoney.com letter… But then the masses don’t read him or me for that matter, and so the message just doesn’t get out, until Barron’s prints it! 
So, Gold got sold again yesterday, this time a more reasonable $5.10 to end the day at $1,823.60… And Silver, believe it or don’t, actually gained 8-cents on the day to close at $21.22…   The price of Oil gained a buck yesterday and ended the day with an $89 handle…  And the 10-year…  WOW! The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, rose yesterday, and for a while it looked like it was not going to stop rising! It did… And finished the day with a 4.83% yield…  
The 10-year’s yield is headed to 5% and beyond, folks… Better be prepaired for 8% mortgages…  I’m just saying… 
In the overnight markets last night…  The dollar buying ended, for at least one session… The BBDXY lost 2 index points overnight, the euro climbed back above 1.05, and the rest of the currencies all look like they have a life after all… Gold is up $2 this morning, and Silver is flat as a pancake (Head East)…  The Russian ruble is working overtime to remain below 100… I think its fate has been shown… UGH!  Japanese yen rallied a bit, working itself away from the 150 level it looked so close to be overtaking yesterday.  The Bank of Japan (BOJ) issued a report that talked about intervention, and that they wouldn’t be looking at a particular level (say 150) to intervene, but rather if the currency got to trading violently…  Hmm… Leave it to the BOJ to come up with a new reason to intervene… 
The price of Oil is getting in the middle of a tug-o-war… On one side you have the production cuts by the folks at OPEC driving the price higher, while on the other side you have the fears of economic slowdown pulling the price downward…  The summer driving season is over, and so the demand for gas will lessen… I’m just saying… 
So… I’ve been talking about the short paper traders in Silver and Gold, and have left out the trading in Copper… Copper, too, has been subjected to whacking lately, and for that matter all the commodities are getting whacked…  It may look like Commodities are in the dumpster, but… a lack of supply will fuel their comeback, in my humble country boy opinion… In addition, when inflation refuels, because the Fed Heads succumb to the pressures of Wall Street, and the upcoming election next year, and begin to print money again, and drop interest rates, then we will see commodities soar once again… At least that’s how I see it, and I could be wrong, right? 
There’s just a lot of dollar buying going on right now, and I know it’s difficult for you to get your head around the idea that the dollar is heading for a downfall… Well, have faith, my friend, for this is going to happen…  As Ed Steer has in his Saturday letter each week… “”Understand this. Things are now in motion that cannot be undone.” — Gandalf the White”
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left their Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.5% last night, choosing to keep rates unchanged for now, as they inspect what their previous rate hikes have done to inflation.  To give them credit here, it does take some time before a rate hike or rate cut works it way through the economy… And multiple rate hikes could gang up on the economy, so… I’m not upset with the RBNZ for not hiking rates again, but they had better keep it to just one month of not moving!  
And I saved this for last… The U.S. Treasury announced that they were going to buy back bonds that they issue… Wait! What?  here’s the skinny: “After careful consideration, we decided it was prudent to move forward and announced our intentions at the May refunding to implement a regular buyback program next year. We believe buybacks can play an important role in helping to make the Treasury market more liquid and resilient by providing liquidity support. The buyback program will also help Treasury to better achieve our debt management objectives….” – U.S. Treasury Assistant Secretary, Josh Frost… 
The folks at www.wallstreetonparade.com asked this question: “Which means that a new buyer of last resort for Treasury securities is needed. But should that really be the same entity that is issuing the debt in the first place? If the Treasury has the money to buy back its debt, why is it issuing the debt?”
Chuck again… This is insane! When the Fed bought the bonds that Treasury issued, they printed money to pay for them, where’s the money going to come from for Treasury to buy back bonds?  That wasn’t mentioned in the article…  When the Fed bought the bonds, they were monetizing the debt… What will this be called?  Serenity Now! 
For What It’s Worth…  A longtime friend, and associate, Addison Wiggin, has gone on to great heights, in his time on earth, and now writes a daily missive that I read without hesitation each day! His note last Saturday was very interesting and that’s why I have it as our feature FWIW article today, and it can be found here: What Could Possibly Go Wrong? – The Wiggin Sessions
Or, here’s your snippet: ““The budget should be balanced,” a wise man stood and encouraged his fellow statesmen.

Then continued, “the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest [we] become bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance.”
You might think one of the members of the House had given such a speech on Saturday prior to the stopgap measure being passed. Matt Gaetz, maybe?
If you did think so, you’d be off by about 2,067 years. Or maybe not.

The quote is often attributed to Cicero, a Roman statesman who as Consul of the Roman Republic tried—and failed—to head off the coming of Julius Caesar and the Roman Empire. But did he really say this?

Let’s think this through for a minute. Even if Cicero did not say it, why has the quote been hanging around for a 100 or so years?

Like all works of fiction there must be some truth that resonates. What, after all, would be wrong with:
A balanced budget…
A treasury refilled..
The arrogance of officialdom tempered..
And assistance to foreign lands be curtailed?

Oh well, Cicero fought against the rise of the Empire and lost.”

Chuck again…  As statesmen in this country fought against the rise of the U.S. Empire, and lost… The ending will be the same folks… And just because the fall of the Roman Empire was over 2,000 years ago, doesn’t mean we shouldn’t have learned from it…  I’m just saying… 
Market Prices 10/4/2023: American Style: A$ .6324, kiwi .5906, C$ .7293, euro 1.0509, sterling 1.21.34, Swiss $1.0900, European Style: rand 19.2753, krone 10.9466, SEK 11.0310, forint 368.90, zloty 4.4022, koruna 23.2179, RUB 99.50, yen 148.92, sing 1.3712, HKD 7.8309, INR 83.24, China 7.2980, peso 18.02, BRL 5.1679, BBDXY 1,275.86, Dollar Index 106.71, Oil $87.43, 10-year 4.77%, Silver $21.20, Platinum $875.00, Palladium $1,172.00, Copper $3.63, and Gold… $1,825.03
That’s it for today, good buddy! Yes, it’s 10/4, put the hammer down! Remember when CB radios were the cat’s meow? Truckers may still use them, but in family sedans, SUVs, and cars, you won’t find them any longer… That ship has sailed… Well, I had another good night last night, and woke up without blood, or stomach rumblings, so maybe I am on my way to better days!  And I can feel the tumor in my jaw, getting smaller… YAHOO! Just in time for my 50th High School Reunion, which will be this coming Saturday!  50 years ago, I was playing football, and had met the love of my life, life was pretty darn good for me then!  that was a long time ago!  I have in my head that all my former classmates will have grown old, and I will be the only one that didn’t! HAHAHAHAHA! I saw a shirt the other day that had this on the front of it: I can’t believe I’m the same age as Old People!   The Allman Brothers take us to the finish line this morning with their live version of their song: One Way Out   I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

The Dollar Is Sooooooooo Overbought!

Rocktober 3, 2023

* currencies & metals get whacked on Monday

* RBA leaves rates unchanged… 

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, the construction people showed up yesterday morning, and began work on putting our house back together. That brought lots of noise to a house that was as quiet as a Church Mouse last week, when I was alone! And that noise played hell with me trying to get a nap in! But, I finally prevailed, so not all was lost. I aplogize for probably giving you all cause to worry about me with my comments yesterday about having an “incident”…  It’s something that I’ve had to deal with again, after years of not having to deal with it, and that is profuse bleeding in my jaw where the tumor likes to grow. While the bleeding is a pain, it also reminds me that the chemo I’m taking is working, and that the tumor is shrinking… Chicago greets me this morning with their mega hit song: I”m A Man…  
Well, what can I say about that dollar rally yesterday? It was a dollar rally to beat the band, that’s what I can say! The BBDXY gained 9 index points in one day! That’s right, I said 9!  Like the John Lennon song, #9 Dream… “Was it a dream? I know, yes I know, it seemed so very real, Seemed so real to me”…  That song was one of his best works, in my opinion… Ok, back to the dollar rally yesterday… it came out of left field, and came hard and fast… And before you knew anything, the dollar was up 4 index points, then 5 and so on… 
It all had to do with Jerome Powell’s bit at a conference he attended and spoke at… He basically said interest rates will remain higher and longer once again, and this time the markets took him for his words…  And the next thing I expect to receive in the mail is a letter from a lender telling me that it’s time, now, to take out a loan that could be refinanced at a lower level later…   Leading the sheeple to ruins… I’m just saying… 
And his words didn’t work well with Gold & Silver, who got royally whacked once again yesterday… Gold lost $20.70 on the day to end the day at $1,828.70, and Silver lost $1.13 to end the day at $22.14… When will the short paper traders end this crusade to weaken Gold & Silver?  Inquiring minds need to know! 
The price of Oil dropped below $90 to end the day at $89…  And with no Fed interference in bonds, the 10-year’s yield rose to 4.68% yesterday… 
Here’s the skinny on the Oil price decline from Bloomberg.com “Oil fell, with the US benchmark tumbling below $90 a barrel, as worries about further interest rate increases and a slowdown in the economy roiled broader markets.
West Texas Intermediate ended the session below $89 a barrel, reversing course after an earlier increase of 1.2%. The S&P 500 slipped and the dollar rose, with investors awaiting clues about the path of Federal Reserve interest rate policy. Prices held onto losses as Fed Chief Jerome Powell appeared at a roundtable discussion on Monday. Officials have indicated rates are likely to remain high, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon sees the possibility of them climbing more.”
Chuck again… so the Powell message was well received by the markets… 
In the overnight markets last night… the dollar buying continued en masse… It was ugly for the currencies, is ugly for the currencies, and will be ugly for the currencies, as long as the dollar is in the overbought position.  The BBDXY has gained 3 more index points overnight and looks to continue its rise today. I don’t know what it will take to get this runaway dollar bus to turn around, but it had better come to the currencies & metals rescue quickly…  Gold continues to get whacked, and overnight it lost another $3, while Silver is 12-cents lower this morning…  The price of Oil dropped another buck and trades this morning with an $88 handle, and the 10-year’s yield rose again, and the bond trades with a 4.74% yield this morning. 
The Russian ruble traded, intraday, yesterday at 100… It rallied to get back below that figure, but the sell for the currency is in place… With Oil slipping again, this doesn’t help the ruble’s fortunes…  The Russian Central Bank already hiked rates to 13% last month, to scrape some of the rot off the vine of the ruble, but that didn’t have any lasting effects… Hello, Elvira?  Yes, this is Elvira, Russian Central Bank Gov how can I help you?  This is Chuck Butler, and I’m calling about a question I’ve been wanting to ask you, are you ready?  Yes, go ahead…  Elvira, if I may call you by your first name, what are you going to do about this weakness in the ruble? I realize that the dollar is in buy mode, but that didn’t stop the ruble from gaining VS the dollar last year, when the dollar was in buy mode?  
And do you know what I heard?   Crickets… 
Well the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) met last night, and decided to keep rates at 4.1%, for the 4th month in a row… The Central Bank did mention that there could be a need for further rate hikes going forward, but for now they are still looking at what the 4% rate hikes are doing to the economy…  And for that non-move, the Aussie dollar (A$), dropped to a level that is barely above .63-cents… UGH!  
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), will meet tomorrow night (Thursday for them), and given the non-move by the RBA, I would think that the RBNZ would do the same… And that won’t be good for kiwi…  But then with all this U.S. dollar strength, I don’t know that a rate hike here would have helped that much…  But it wouldn’t have hurt any either! 
And the lifeline the Riksbank threw the krona that I talked about yesterday, didn’t have any lasting effects on the currency, and it returned to trade above the 11 figure… UGH!  
The dollar is sooooooooooo overbought right now, but that’s not stopping this runaway bus…  So, with this going on, I just don’t have much to talk about,  and therefore the short-n-sweet Pfennigs… 
The U.S. data Cupboard yesterday had the Sept. ISM (manufacturing index), and it had a gain, in the month, but remained below 50 at 49%… This data had been trending downward, and was heading to 45, a couple of months ago, but now has corrected and is heading upward again…  I don’t see what’s behind this upward move, but then my wife says I can’t see, so there’s that! 
Today’s Data Cupboard just has the Job Openings data for August, which in July were 8.8 Million, and are expected to remain at that level… 
To recap, the overbought dollar went on the rampage, and gained 9 index points in the BBDXY, and has gained 3 more in the overnight markets to start the day today… Gold got whacked again this time by $20, and Silver by $1.43, and the selling doesn’t appear to be over.  The RBA left rates unchanged at their meeting last night… The Russian ruble traded at 100 int he intraday trading yesterday, and Chuck puts in a call to the Russian Central Bank Gov. to ask what she will do about all this weakness…. Crickets… 
For what it’s worth… Well, it’s time to check on what Pam and Russ Martens are writing about, and in this check, we find that they once again are pointing out that fines to banks that break the law are useless… And it can be found here: Five-Count Felon JPMorgan Chase Gets Hit with Another Federal Fine for 40 Million Derivative Violations; Pays 37 1/2 Cents Per Violation (wallstreetonparade.com)
Or, here’s your snippet: “In the eyes of Wall Street veterans who are paying close attention to what’s going down at the mega banks on Wall Street, federal regulators are making the crime wave at these banks worse, not better. The federal fines for egregious behavior at these banks are getting smaller and more meaningless by the day.

Take, for example, what happened on Friday. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined three of the largest trading houses on Wall Street a combined $53 million for derivative reporting violations. Those trading houses were units of Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and JPMorgan Chase.
But what was particularly tone deaf about the CFTC’s settlement with JPMorgan Chase was the tiny amount of the monetary fine and the praise heaped on the five-count felon bank for its “cooperation” with the federal regulator.
According to the CFTC, over a period of five years, spanning 2017 to 2022, JPMorgan Chase Bank and two of its units “failed to report, or failed to correctly report, more than 40 million swap transactions.” The fine was a pathetic $15 million in total for the three JPMorgan units, meaning it cost this global behemoth just 37 ½ cents per law violation.
Last year, JPMorgan Chase reported $37.7 billion in net income. A fine of $15 million for 40 million violations of law is something that traders will make jokes about around the water cooler.
What is a “swap,” and what was JPMorgan Chase likely up to in failing to report or incorrectly reporting 40 million swap trades?
A swap is a derivative trade entered into between two parties via contract. According to the CFTC, the 40 million derivatives in this $15 million fine against JPMorgan Chase involved interest rate derivatives, foreign exchange derivatives, commodity derivatives and equity (stock) derivatives.

Why would a trading house fail to report a derivative trade? It could be that it had exceeded its speculative trading limits or that its counterparty on the trade was a risky counterparty that a federally-insured bank shouldn’t be doing business with or with whom it already had too many risky derivative trades. It could also be that one large trading house was attempting to manipulate the market to benefit one of its other trading positions.”

Chuck again…  That was a long snippet, and the article is even longer, so if you have the time… do go there and read it… 
Market Prices 10/3/2023: American Style: A$ .6304, kiwi .5898, C$ .7291, euro 1.0478, sterling 1.2072, Swiss $1.0840, European Style: rand 19.3189, krone 10.8981, SEK 11.0909, forint 368.70, zloty 4.4102, koruna 23.3790, RUB 99.18, yen 149.96, sing 1.3748, HKD 7.8313, INR 83.20, China 7.2980, peso 17.72, BRL 5.0611, BBDXY 1,276.87, Dollar Index 107.09, Oil $88.35, 10-year 4.74%, Silver $21.03, Platinum $879.00, Palladium $1,190.00, Copper $3.66, and Gold… $1,825.72
That’s it for today… late again today… This morning, I had to stop writing and help Kathy reconnect our cameras to the Wi-Fi… It couldn’t wait! Well, the baseball playoffs start today… I doubt that I’ll follow them closely, as my beloved Cardinals are not a part of them for the first time in a month of Sundays…   I do like the Tampa Bay Rays, for the way they construct their team… Our Blues lost their exhibition game with the Blue Jackets last night, they gave up 5 goals, and that’s unacceptable in my opinion!  I had a rough day yesterday, as the new chemo is taking its hits on me, right now… But I slept good last night, and seem to be better this morning… On my way to a good day!   Tommy James and the Shondells take us to the finish line today with their mega hit song: Crystal Blue Persuasion…  (I love this song!)  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself! 
Chuck Butler

The Needle Finally Gets Lifted From The Broken Record!

September 28, 2023

* currencies & metals rally in the overnight markets

* Should I wear my Mizzou or Clemson sweatshirt to work today? 

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all!  Well, that good clutch hitting, good defense, and strong pitching didn’t last but one game for my beloved Cardinals, who started what looked like a Spring Training lineup last night, and lost…  Oh well, the season is over for them anyway, I just like seeing them spoil the run to the playoffs for the other teams… Good friend, Duane, repaired the gate to our fence that surrounds the pool, yesterday… Dewey, was a tool and die engineer, and the job isn’t finished until it’s done perferctly…  So, now I don’t have to deal with a bad gate any more! Procol Harum greets me this morning with their mega hit song: Whiter Shade of Pale… 
The Broken record is now stuck on song 3… The dollar continued to be bought yesterday, and when the dust settled on the day, the BBDXY had gained 4 index points. The euro was hanging by the skin of its teeth to the 1.05 handle when the day ended, and the rest of the currencies are looking very sickly…  The dollar is a runaway train, and Ol’ Charley stole the handle, and the train, it won’t stop, no way to slow it down… (Jethro Tull) And Gold? Well, after taking Gold below its 200-day moving avg, the short paper traders decided to take more than a slab of Gold flesh… 
Kitco.com had an article that started: Gold gets hammered by high bond yields, and strong dollar….  I thought they forgot something, … And the short paper traders! 
Yes, I believe that the higher bond yields, and the strong dollar could be playing hell with Gold, but not to tune of a $25.40 that Gold suffered yesterday… That extra push of Gold downward came curtesy of the short paper traders… Silver too was sold short, and lost 31-cents… Gold ended the day at $1,876.00, and Silver at $22.63… 
Did you hear that Costco is selling Gold bars, and they report that they can’t keep them in stock, that the Gold bars are selling out every time they restock?   I wonder why that is? Because normal people that shop at Costco, see what’s going on in the world and want to retain something when it all comes crashing down!  That why! 
Bonds got sold yesterday again and the yield on the 10-year treasury rose to 4.60%… And the price of Oil added $2 to its price and ended the day trading with a $94 handle. 
And speaking of Oil… this was in today’s Bloomberg.com: “The US oil benchmark briefly surged to $95 a barrel as dwindling stockpiles at a key storage hub fanned fears about falling crude supplies globally.”  
You know, I just don’t get it… The country is being buried under mountains of debt, and the cost of financing that debt is rising all the time, and the future looks bleak, but traders are just ignoring all this, and buying dollars by the truck load…   Oh, well, when it all come crashing down, you won’t be able to say that I didn’t warn you… And if you thought that the prices in Gold were cheap last week, this weeks’ prices are ever cheaper!  
In the overnight markets last night…  Well, someone finally took the needle off the broken record! The dollar got sold in the overnight markets, and the BBDXY has lost 4 index points to start today. Gold is not down this morning… It’s not up much, a buck at most, but it’s not down! Silver is up 19-cents to start the day, and for the first time in two weeks, you can feel that things have changed… But then that’s just a feeling, and the reality is this…  The dollar bugs have control of the direction of the dollar, and they are not going to relinquish that control any time soon! 
I had a dear reader ask me once, why I call dollar holders, dollar bugs…  I responded as: “Well, they always call us Gold lovers, Gold Bugs, so I just reverse it and call them Dollar Bugs..” 
I have to think that the overnight markets finally came to the realization that we only have two more days of normality in the U.S.  The financial year comes to an end 9/30… And on Rocktober 1st, the Gov’t could shutdown because they don’t have a spending accord… Here’s USA Today with their thought on this: “Congress has two days to cut a deal and prevent a government shutdown that would impact millions of Americans. While it wouldn’t be as far reaching as the debt ceiling threat in late May, a shutdown would deeply impact those who need the most help: newborns who rely on WIC for infant formula, children who need nutrition assistance, low-income families who rely on Head Start programs for preschool, college students who receive federal grants to pay for their education, people who receive food stamps and more.”
I just keep reading reports like this one and wonder when the walls begin to crumble…  new home sales hit a wall in August, crashing 8.7% MoM – the biggest drop since Sept 2022 (and four times worse than the -2.2% MoM expected) …  Yes, even the medium price of a house dropped to 430,000…  But that didn’t help new home sales, because mortgage rates are too high for them to buy at those levels…  2008, is still in the rear-view mirror… I’m just saying… 
Good friend, Dennis Miller, sent me a note yesterday, and it was a quote from Abe Lincoln… yes, honest Abe… And it the quote Lincoln talked about how he feared for his country because of the powers of the country would become corrupt, and work until all the wealth of the country is in a few hands and ruin the republic….  Dennis asked me if this was a case of history repeating itself?   I thought for a minute, and then said to myself, this has already happened, our republic turned into an Empire, and now the Empire is crumbling, just like all previous Empires in the history of the World…  So, yes, the answer to the question! 
And in a sign of the times… And this has nothing to do with markets, so if you’re not interested skip ahead… But this from the Senate floor, have recently announced that there are no longer any requirements regarding attire. The business look that has dominated the scene since inception is out – hoodies, sweatshirts, and those controversial calf showing shorts – are now permissible in the US capitol. 
Now, you know me, and I love traditions, right? OK, a dressed-up legislature is something that goes back to the Roman Empire, where the emperor was the sole person to show off a purple toga, while senators could wear a white toga with a broad purple stripe along the edge, a distinctive badge of the senatorial order called the latus clavus.   (info from the Classic Wisdom site) 
Where will this lead us? Only the shadow knows, folks… But in my eye, I see chaos… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the August Durable Goods Orders, which surprised everyone by not being negative once again, and instead grew .2%…  That’s not a lot, folks, but it’s not negative and that’s saying something in this day and age… 
Today’s Data Cupboard has the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, a revision of 2nd QTR GDP… Hmm, you have to wonder what kind a hedonic adjustment will be made after all this time that they’ve had to adjust the GDP?
To recap… The dollar continued to get bought all day yesterday, and the broken record is now stuck on song 3… But in the overnight markets last night, someone finally took the needle off the broken record, and the dollar got sold… There are a lot of thoughts to why this began to happen last night, only time will tell…  Senators can now show up for work in shorts an tees… And people wonder what happened to our country?  Gold got hammered yesterday, and got taken below its 200-day moving avg.  Does that signal an end to the short Gold Paper Trading?  
For What It’s Worth… This is an interesting article on zero hedge that talks about credit cards losses… Is this the beginning of the end?  it can be read here: Credit Card Losses Are Surging At The Fastest Pace Since The Global Financial Crisis | ZeroHedge
Or, here’s your snippet: ” One month ago we warned that the toxic cocktail of Volcker-esque rates which have pushed the average credit card APR to a nose bleeding 21%…

… and surging credit card balances would lead to a catastrophic surge in consumer (and corporate) defaults (see “Credit Card Balances Hit Record Above $1 Trillion, Suffer “Pronounced Worsening” Amid Surge In New Delinquencies”) it is now Goldman’s turn.
As Goldman analyst Ryan Nash writes in his latest note, after bottoming in September 2021, credit card losses have risen for the past 24 months. While the initial increases were likely reversals from stimulus, “since 1Q22 outside of the GFC losses are rising at their fastest pace in almost 30 years.” Nash is concerned because “it is unusual for losses to rise outside of an economic downturn. In fact, of the prior five credit card loss cycles, three were characterized by recessions (early 90s, early 2000s and the great recession of 2008), while only two cycles (mid 90s and ’15 to ’19) the economy was not in a recession.”
Given this backdrop, Ryan’s did a deep dive comparing this cycle to the two prior non-recession credit loss increase / normalization cycles – 1) the mid-90s cycle and 2) the prior credit cycle (2015-2019) to asses where losses could be headed over the course of this cycle and the timing of it.

Losses currently stand at 3.63% (up ~150bps from the bottom) and based on Goldman’s analysis, the losses will rise at least another ~130ps from current levels (to ~4.93%), implying we are roughly halfway through the credit loss increase cycle. He also thinks delinquencies could continue to underperform seasonality through the middle of next year and don’t see losses peaking until late 2024 / early 2025 for most issuers. Relative to expectations, Goldman sees losses rising the most at COF, followed by DFS, which is hardly surprising following the credit card company’s own charge-off rate forecast .”

Chuck again… credit cards is how the economy is functioning these days, as consumers use them over and over again, building balances that can’t be paid off at month-end, and carried forward with these outrageous interest rates… This only has a chance to end in tears… 
Market Price 9/28/ 2023: American Style: A$ .6391, kiwi .5955, C$ .7413, euro 1.0546, sterling 1.2205, Swiss $1.0888, European Style: rand 19.1358, krone 10.7338, SEK 11.0191, forint 372.61, zloty 4.3955, koruna 23.1169, RUB 96.93, yen 149.30, sing 1.3692, HKD 7.8270, INR 83.19, China 7.3056, peso 17.64, BRL 5.0450, BBDXY 1,267.84, Dollar Index 106.28, OIl $93.29, 10-year 4.64%, Silver $22.81, Platinum $896.00, Palladium $1,232.00, Copper $3.66, and Gold… $1,876.70
That’s it for today and this week of course… The end of the regular season in baseball, will take place this coming weekend… UGH!  IF your a new reader this letter, you are bound to have figured out that I LOVE BASEBALL!  I do thoroughly enjoy all sports, but baseball is number 1 with me… Well, my time alone at home will come to an end on Saturday… Saturday night, I’ll be going to the StL City game at City Park… They only have two home games left… And I have tickets to both of them! StL! StL!  The last Super Moon of 2023 will take place this coming weekend, it will be the Harvest Moon… I love it when I’m at my place in S. Florida that looks out at the ocean, and the full moon comes up out of the ocean as an big orange ball… But I’m not there now, so I’ll have to search the sky here… The Who take us to the finish line today with their song: Behind Blue Eyes…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and will Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler