Author: admin

Treasury To Do Buy Backs?

Rocktober 4, 2023

* Currencies & metals get sold on Tuesday… 

* Dollar buying ends overnight, for one session at least! 

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Pfennig Alert! Next Monday is Columbus Day, which I’ve always observed, with a day off… I’ll have something for you on Monday, but it won’t be much… Then there will be no Pfennig on Tues & Weds next week… Oncologist & Heart Doctor appts will be my destinations those early mornings… I said yesterday that I thought I was on my way to a good day, and a good day it was! No stomach problems, no bleeding, I almost felt normal again! Maybe, just maybe, cause you never know, my system is finally accepting the new chemo… Wishin, and hopin, and thinkin and prayin (Dusty Springfield) that’s what I’m doing, so that I can get back to being Chuck! The GREAT Ray Charles greets me this morning with his song: You Don’t Know Me… 
Well… the dollar buying continued yesterday, as the BBDXY added 3 index points to its total and ended the day at 1,277.87…  The euro, the dollar’s offset currency, continued to drop… One month ago, the euro was trading 1.0745, and yesterday it closed at 1.0445…Two months ago the euro was sniffing around 1.10!  So, this is how strong the dollar’s run has been folks, and right now, it certainly looks overbought to me… 
Michael Hartnet of B of A, recently told a crowd to : stay in hard assets, the dollar is going to get hit!  Ok, but when Michael? Oh, I know I’m being tough on the Beaver, but June, he left that wide open!  But it’s nice that he talked about owning Gold, land, and other hard assets… 
Sounds a lot like my suggestion in the interview that I had with Dennis Miller, for his www.milleronthemoney.com letter… But then the masses don’t read him or me for that matter, and so the message just doesn’t get out, until Barron’s prints it! 
So, Gold got sold again yesterday, this time a more reasonable $5.10 to end the day at $1,823.60… And Silver, believe it or don’t, actually gained 8-cents on the day to close at $21.22…   The price of Oil gained a buck yesterday and ended the day with an $89 handle…  And the 10-year…  WOW! The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, rose yesterday, and for a while it looked like it was not going to stop rising! It did… And finished the day with a 4.83% yield…  
The 10-year’s yield is headed to 5% and beyond, folks… Better be prepaired for 8% mortgages…  I’m just saying… 
In the overnight markets last night…  The dollar buying ended, for at least one session… The BBDXY lost 2 index points overnight, the euro climbed back above 1.05, and the rest of the currencies all look like they have a life after all… Gold is up $2 this morning, and Silver is flat as a pancake (Head East)…  The Russian ruble is working overtime to remain below 100… I think its fate has been shown… UGH!  Japanese yen rallied a bit, working itself away from the 150 level it looked so close to be overtaking yesterday.  The Bank of Japan (BOJ) issued a report that talked about intervention, and that they wouldn’t be looking at a particular level (say 150) to intervene, but rather if the currency got to trading violently…  Hmm… Leave it to the BOJ to come up with a new reason to intervene… 
The price of Oil is getting in the middle of a tug-o-war… On one side you have the production cuts by the folks at OPEC driving the price higher, while on the other side you have the fears of economic slowdown pulling the price downward…  The summer driving season is over, and so the demand for gas will lessen… I’m just saying… 
So… I’ve been talking about the short paper traders in Silver and Gold, and have left out the trading in Copper… Copper, too, has been subjected to whacking lately, and for that matter all the commodities are getting whacked…  It may look like Commodities are in the dumpster, but… a lack of supply will fuel their comeback, in my humble country boy opinion… In addition, when inflation refuels, because the Fed Heads succumb to the pressures of Wall Street, and the upcoming election next year, and begin to print money again, and drop interest rates, then we will see commodities soar once again… At least that’s how I see it, and I could be wrong, right? 
There’s just a lot of dollar buying going on right now, and I know it’s difficult for you to get your head around the idea that the dollar is heading for a downfall… Well, have faith, my friend, for this is going to happen…  As Ed Steer has in his Saturday letter each week… “”Understand this. Things are now in motion that cannot be undone.” — Gandalf the White”
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left their Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.5% last night, choosing to keep rates unchanged for now, as they inspect what their previous rate hikes have done to inflation.  To give them credit here, it does take some time before a rate hike or rate cut works it way through the economy… And multiple rate hikes could gang up on the economy, so… I’m not upset with the RBNZ for not hiking rates again, but they had better keep it to just one month of not moving!  
And I saved this for last… The U.S. Treasury announced that they were going to buy back bonds that they issue… Wait! What?  here’s the skinny: “After careful consideration, we decided it was prudent to move forward and announced our intentions at the May refunding to implement a regular buyback program next year. We believe buybacks can play an important role in helping to make the Treasury market more liquid and resilient by providing liquidity support. The buyback program will also help Treasury to better achieve our debt management objectives….” – U.S. Treasury Assistant Secretary, Josh Frost… 
The folks at www.wallstreetonparade.com asked this question: “Which means that a new buyer of last resort for Treasury securities is needed. But should that really be the same entity that is issuing the debt in the first place? If the Treasury has the money to buy back its debt, why is it issuing the debt?”
Chuck again… This is insane! When the Fed bought the bonds that Treasury issued, they printed money to pay for them, where’s the money going to come from for Treasury to buy back bonds?  That wasn’t mentioned in the article…  When the Fed bought the bonds, they were monetizing the debt… What will this be called?  Serenity Now! 
For What It’s Worth…  A longtime friend, and associate, Addison Wiggin, has gone on to great heights, in his time on earth, and now writes a daily missive that I read without hesitation each day! His note last Saturday was very interesting and that’s why I have it as our feature FWIW article today, and it can be found here: What Could Possibly Go Wrong? – The Wiggin Sessions
Or, here’s your snippet: ““The budget should be balanced,” a wise man stood and encouraged his fellow statesmen.

Then continued, “the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest [we] become bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance.”
You might think one of the members of the House had given such a speech on Saturday prior to the stopgap measure being passed. Matt Gaetz, maybe?
If you did think so, you’d be off by about 2,067 years. Or maybe not.

The quote is often attributed to Cicero, a Roman statesman who as Consul of the Roman Republic tried—and failed—to head off the coming of Julius Caesar and the Roman Empire. But did he really say this?

Let’s think this through for a minute. Even if Cicero did not say it, why has the quote been hanging around for a 100 or so years?

Like all works of fiction there must be some truth that resonates. What, after all, would be wrong with:
A balanced budget…
A treasury refilled..
The arrogance of officialdom tempered..
And assistance to foreign lands be curtailed?

Oh well, Cicero fought against the rise of the Empire and lost.”

Chuck again…  As statesmen in this country fought against the rise of the U.S. Empire, and lost… The ending will be the same folks… And just because the fall of the Roman Empire was over 2,000 years ago, doesn’t mean we shouldn’t have learned from it…  I’m just saying… 
Market Prices 10/4/2023: American Style: A$ .6324, kiwi .5906, C$ .7293, euro 1.0509, sterling 1.21.34, Swiss $1.0900, European Style: rand 19.2753, krone 10.9466, SEK 11.0310, forint 368.90, zloty 4.4022, koruna 23.2179, RUB 99.50, yen 148.92, sing 1.3712, HKD 7.8309, INR 83.24, China 7.2980, peso 18.02, BRL 5.1679, BBDXY 1,275.86, Dollar Index 106.71, Oil $87.43, 10-year 4.77%, Silver $21.20, Platinum $875.00, Palladium $1,172.00, Copper $3.63, and Gold… $1,825.03
That’s it for today, good buddy! Yes, it’s 10/4, put the hammer down! Remember when CB radios were the cat’s meow? Truckers may still use them, but in family sedans, SUVs, and cars, you won’t find them any longer… That ship has sailed… Well, I had another good night last night, and woke up without blood, or stomach rumblings, so maybe I am on my way to better days!  And I can feel the tumor in my jaw, getting smaller… YAHOO! Just in time for my 50th High School Reunion, which will be this coming Saturday!  50 years ago, I was playing football, and had met the love of my life, life was pretty darn good for me then!  that was a long time ago!  I have in my head that all my former classmates will have grown old, and I will be the only one that didn’t! HAHAHAHAHA! I saw a shirt the other day that had this on the front of it: I can’t believe I’m the same age as Old People!   The Allman Brothers take us to the finish line this morning with their live version of their song: One Way Out   I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

The Dollar Is Sooooooooo Overbought!

Rocktober 3, 2023

* currencies & metals get whacked on Monday

* RBA leaves rates unchanged… 

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, the construction people showed up yesterday morning, and began work on putting our house back together. That brought lots of noise to a house that was as quiet as a Church Mouse last week, when I was alone! And that noise played hell with me trying to get a nap in! But, I finally prevailed, so not all was lost. I aplogize for probably giving you all cause to worry about me with my comments yesterday about having an “incident”…  It’s something that I’ve had to deal with again, after years of not having to deal with it, and that is profuse bleeding in my jaw where the tumor likes to grow. While the bleeding is a pain, it also reminds me that the chemo I’m taking is working, and that the tumor is shrinking… Chicago greets me this morning with their mega hit song: I”m A Man…  
Well, what can I say about that dollar rally yesterday? It was a dollar rally to beat the band, that’s what I can say! The BBDXY gained 9 index points in one day! That’s right, I said 9!  Like the John Lennon song, #9 Dream… “Was it a dream? I know, yes I know, it seemed so very real, Seemed so real to me”…  That song was one of his best works, in my opinion… Ok, back to the dollar rally yesterday… it came out of left field, and came hard and fast… And before you knew anything, the dollar was up 4 index points, then 5 and so on… 
It all had to do with Jerome Powell’s bit at a conference he attended and spoke at… He basically said interest rates will remain higher and longer once again, and this time the markets took him for his words…  And the next thing I expect to receive in the mail is a letter from a lender telling me that it’s time, now, to take out a loan that could be refinanced at a lower level later…   Leading the sheeple to ruins… I’m just saying… 
And his words didn’t work well with Gold & Silver, who got royally whacked once again yesterday… Gold lost $20.70 on the day to end the day at $1,828.70, and Silver lost $1.13 to end the day at $22.14… When will the short paper traders end this crusade to weaken Gold & Silver?  Inquiring minds need to know! 
The price of Oil dropped below $90 to end the day at $89…  And with no Fed interference in bonds, the 10-year’s yield rose to 4.68% yesterday… 
Here’s the skinny on the Oil price decline from Bloomberg.com “Oil fell, with the US benchmark tumbling below $90 a barrel, as worries about further interest rate increases and a slowdown in the economy roiled broader markets.
West Texas Intermediate ended the session below $89 a barrel, reversing course after an earlier increase of 1.2%. The S&P 500 slipped and the dollar rose, with investors awaiting clues about the path of Federal Reserve interest rate policy. Prices held onto losses as Fed Chief Jerome Powell appeared at a roundtable discussion on Monday. Officials have indicated rates are likely to remain high, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon sees the possibility of them climbing more.”
Chuck again… so the Powell message was well received by the markets… 
In the overnight markets last night… the dollar buying continued en masse… It was ugly for the currencies, is ugly for the currencies, and will be ugly for the currencies, as long as the dollar is in the overbought position.  The BBDXY has gained 3 more index points overnight and looks to continue its rise today. I don’t know what it will take to get this runaway dollar bus to turn around, but it had better come to the currencies & metals rescue quickly…  Gold continues to get whacked, and overnight it lost another $3, while Silver is 12-cents lower this morning…  The price of Oil dropped another buck and trades this morning with an $88 handle, and the 10-year’s yield rose again, and the bond trades with a 4.74% yield this morning. 
The Russian ruble traded, intraday, yesterday at 100… It rallied to get back below that figure, but the sell for the currency is in place… With Oil slipping again, this doesn’t help the ruble’s fortunes…  The Russian Central Bank already hiked rates to 13% last month, to scrape some of the rot off the vine of the ruble, but that didn’t have any lasting effects… Hello, Elvira?  Yes, this is Elvira, Russian Central Bank Gov how can I help you?  This is Chuck Butler, and I’m calling about a question I’ve been wanting to ask you, are you ready?  Yes, go ahead…  Elvira, if I may call you by your first name, what are you going to do about this weakness in the ruble? I realize that the dollar is in buy mode, but that didn’t stop the ruble from gaining VS the dollar last year, when the dollar was in buy mode?  
And do you know what I heard?   Crickets… 
Well the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) met last night, and decided to keep rates at 4.1%, for the 4th month in a row… The Central Bank did mention that there could be a need for further rate hikes going forward, but for now they are still looking at what the 4% rate hikes are doing to the economy…  And for that non-move, the Aussie dollar (A$), dropped to a level that is barely above .63-cents… UGH!  
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), will meet tomorrow night (Thursday for them), and given the non-move by the RBA, I would think that the RBNZ would do the same… And that won’t be good for kiwi…  But then with all this U.S. dollar strength, I don’t know that a rate hike here would have helped that much…  But it wouldn’t have hurt any either! 
And the lifeline the Riksbank threw the krona that I talked about yesterday, didn’t have any lasting effects on the currency, and it returned to trade above the 11 figure… UGH!  
The dollar is sooooooooooo overbought right now, but that’s not stopping this runaway bus…  So, with this going on, I just don’t have much to talk about,  and therefore the short-n-sweet Pfennigs… 
The U.S. data Cupboard yesterday had the Sept. ISM (manufacturing index), and it had a gain, in the month, but remained below 50 at 49%… This data had been trending downward, and was heading to 45, a couple of months ago, but now has corrected and is heading upward again…  I don’t see what’s behind this upward move, but then my wife says I can’t see, so there’s that! 
Today’s Data Cupboard just has the Job Openings data for August, which in July were 8.8 Million, and are expected to remain at that level… 
To recap, the overbought dollar went on the rampage, and gained 9 index points in the BBDXY, and has gained 3 more in the overnight markets to start the day today… Gold got whacked again this time by $20, and Silver by $1.43, and the selling doesn’t appear to be over.  The RBA left rates unchanged at their meeting last night… The Russian ruble traded at 100 int he intraday trading yesterday, and Chuck puts in a call to the Russian Central Bank Gov. to ask what she will do about all this weakness…. Crickets… 
For what it’s worth… Well, it’s time to check on what Pam and Russ Martens are writing about, and in this check, we find that they once again are pointing out that fines to banks that break the law are useless… And it can be found here: Five-Count Felon JPMorgan Chase Gets Hit with Another Federal Fine for 40 Million Derivative Violations; Pays 37 1/2 Cents Per Violation (wallstreetonparade.com)
Or, here’s your snippet: “In the eyes of Wall Street veterans who are paying close attention to what’s going down at the mega banks on Wall Street, federal regulators are making the crime wave at these banks worse, not better. The federal fines for egregious behavior at these banks are getting smaller and more meaningless by the day.

Take, for example, what happened on Friday. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined three of the largest trading houses on Wall Street a combined $53 million for derivative reporting violations. Those trading houses were units of Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and JPMorgan Chase.
But what was particularly tone deaf about the CFTC’s settlement with JPMorgan Chase was the tiny amount of the monetary fine and the praise heaped on the five-count felon bank for its “cooperation” with the federal regulator.
According to the CFTC, over a period of five years, spanning 2017 to 2022, JPMorgan Chase Bank and two of its units “failed to report, or failed to correctly report, more than 40 million swap transactions.” The fine was a pathetic $15 million in total for the three JPMorgan units, meaning it cost this global behemoth just 37 ½ cents per law violation.
Last year, JPMorgan Chase reported $37.7 billion in net income. A fine of $15 million for 40 million violations of law is something that traders will make jokes about around the water cooler.
What is a “swap,” and what was JPMorgan Chase likely up to in failing to report or incorrectly reporting 40 million swap trades?
A swap is a derivative trade entered into between two parties via contract. According to the CFTC, the 40 million derivatives in this $15 million fine against JPMorgan Chase involved interest rate derivatives, foreign exchange derivatives, commodity derivatives and equity (stock) derivatives.

Why would a trading house fail to report a derivative trade? It could be that it had exceeded its speculative trading limits or that its counterparty on the trade was a risky counterparty that a federally-insured bank shouldn’t be doing business with or with whom it already had too many risky derivative trades. It could also be that one large trading house was attempting to manipulate the market to benefit one of its other trading positions.”

Chuck again…  That was a long snippet, and the article is even longer, so if you have the time… do go there and read it… 
Market Prices 10/3/2023: American Style: A$ .6304, kiwi .5898, C$ .7291, euro 1.0478, sterling 1.2072, Swiss $1.0840, European Style: rand 19.3189, krone 10.8981, SEK 11.0909, forint 368.70, zloty 4.4102, koruna 23.3790, RUB 99.18, yen 149.96, sing 1.3748, HKD 7.8313, INR 83.20, China 7.2980, peso 17.72, BRL 5.0611, BBDXY 1,276.87, Dollar Index 107.09, Oil $88.35, 10-year 4.74%, Silver $21.03, Platinum $879.00, Palladium $1,190.00, Copper $3.66, and Gold… $1,825.72
That’s it for today… late again today… This morning, I had to stop writing and help Kathy reconnect our cameras to the Wi-Fi… It couldn’t wait! Well, the baseball playoffs start today… I doubt that I’ll follow them closely, as my beloved Cardinals are not a part of them for the first time in a month of Sundays…   I do like the Tampa Bay Rays, for the way they construct their team… Our Blues lost their exhibition game with the Blue Jackets last night, they gave up 5 goals, and that’s unacceptable in my opinion!  I had a rough day yesterday, as the new chemo is taking its hits on me, right now… But I slept good last night, and seem to be better this morning… On my way to a good day!   Tommy James and the Shondells take us to the finish line today with their mega hit song: Crystal Blue Persuasion…  (I love this song!)  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself! 
Chuck Butler

The Needle Finally Gets Lifted From The Broken Record!

September 28, 2023

* currencies & metals rally in the overnight markets

* Should I wear my Mizzou or Clemson sweatshirt to work today? 

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all!  Well, that good clutch hitting, good defense, and strong pitching didn’t last but one game for my beloved Cardinals, who started what looked like a Spring Training lineup last night, and lost…  Oh well, the season is over for them anyway, I just like seeing them spoil the run to the playoffs for the other teams… Good friend, Duane, repaired the gate to our fence that surrounds the pool, yesterday… Dewey, was a tool and die engineer, and the job isn’t finished until it’s done perferctly…  So, now I don’t have to deal with a bad gate any more! Procol Harum greets me this morning with their mega hit song: Whiter Shade of Pale… 
The Broken record is now stuck on song 3… The dollar continued to be bought yesterday, and when the dust settled on the day, the BBDXY had gained 4 index points. The euro was hanging by the skin of its teeth to the 1.05 handle when the day ended, and the rest of the currencies are looking very sickly…  The dollar is a runaway train, and Ol’ Charley stole the handle, and the train, it won’t stop, no way to slow it down… (Jethro Tull) And Gold? Well, after taking Gold below its 200-day moving avg, the short paper traders decided to take more than a slab of Gold flesh… 
Kitco.com had an article that started: Gold gets hammered by high bond yields, and strong dollar….  I thought they forgot something, … And the short paper traders! 
Yes, I believe that the higher bond yields, and the strong dollar could be playing hell with Gold, but not to tune of a $25.40 that Gold suffered yesterday… That extra push of Gold downward came curtesy of the short paper traders… Silver too was sold short, and lost 31-cents… Gold ended the day at $1,876.00, and Silver at $22.63… 
Did you hear that Costco is selling Gold bars, and they report that they can’t keep them in stock, that the Gold bars are selling out every time they restock?   I wonder why that is? Because normal people that shop at Costco, see what’s going on in the world and want to retain something when it all comes crashing down!  That why! 
Bonds got sold yesterday again and the yield on the 10-year treasury rose to 4.60%… And the price of Oil added $2 to its price and ended the day trading with a $94 handle. 
And speaking of Oil… this was in today’s Bloomberg.com: “The US oil benchmark briefly surged to $95 a barrel as dwindling stockpiles at a key storage hub fanned fears about falling crude supplies globally.”  
You know, I just don’t get it… The country is being buried under mountains of debt, and the cost of financing that debt is rising all the time, and the future looks bleak, but traders are just ignoring all this, and buying dollars by the truck load…   Oh, well, when it all come crashing down, you won’t be able to say that I didn’t warn you… And if you thought that the prices in Gold were cheap last week, this weeks’ prices are ever cheaper!  
In the overnight markets last night…  Well, someone finally took the needle off the broken record! The dollar got sold in the overnight markets, and the BBDXY has lost 4 index points to start today. Gold is not down this morning… It’s not up much, a buck at most, but it’s not down! Silver is up 19-cents to start the day, and for the first time in two weeks, you can feel that things have changed… But then that’s just a feeling, and the reality is this…  The dollar bugs have control of the direction of the dollar, and they are not going to relinquish that control any time soon! 
I had a dear reader ask me once, why I call dollar holders, dollar bugs…  I responded as: “Well, they always call us Gold lovers, Gold Bugs, so I just reverse it and call them Dollar Bugs..” 
I have to think that the overnight markets finally came to the realization that we only have two more days of normality in the U.S.  The financial year comes to an end 9/30… And on Rocktober 1st, the Gov’t could shutdown because they don’t have a spending accord… Here’s USA Today with their thought on this: “Congress has two days to cut a deal and prevent a government shutdown that would impact millions of Americans. While it wouldn’t be as far reaching as the debt ceiling threat in late May, a shutdown would deeply impact those who need the most help: newborns who rely on WIC for infant formula, children who need nutrition assistance, low-income families who rely on Head Start programs for preschool, college students who receive federal grants to pay for their education, people who receive food stamps and more.”
I just keep reading reports like this one and wonder when the walls begin to crumble…  new home sales hit a wall in August, crashing 8.7% MoM – the biggest drop since Sept 2022 (and four times worse than the -2.2% MoM expected) …  Yes, even the medium price of a house dropped to 430,000…  But that didn’t help new home sales, because mortgage rates are too high for them to buy at those levels…  2008, is still in the rear-view mirror… I’m just saying… 
Good friend, Dennis Miller, sent me a note yesterday, and it was a quote from Abe Lincoln… yes, honest Abe… And it the quote Lincoln talked about how he feared for his country because of the powers of the country would become corrupt, and work until all the wealth of the country is in a few hands and ruin the republic….  Dennis asked me if this was a case of history repeating itself?   I thought for a minute, and then said to myself, this has already happened, our republic turned into an Empire, and now the Empire is crumbling, just like all previous Empires in the history of the World…  So, yes, the answer to the question! 
And in a sign of the times… And this has nothing to do with markets, so if you’re not interested skip ahead… But this from the Senate floor, have recently announced that there are no longer any requirements regarding attire. The business look that has dominated the scene since inception is out – hoodies, sweatshirts, and those controversial calf showing shorts – are now permissible in the US capitol. 
Now, you know me, and I love traditions, right? OK, a dressed-up legislature is something that goes back to the Roman Empire, where the emperor was the sole person to show off a purple toga, while senators could wear a white toga with a broad purple stripe along the edge, a distinctive badge of the senatorial order called the latus clavus.   (info from the Classic Wisdom site) 
Where will this lead us? Only the shadow knows, folks… But in my eye, I see chaos… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the August Durable Goods Orders, which surprised everyone by not being negative once again, and instead grew .2%…  That’s not a lot, folks, but it’s not negative and that’s saying something in this day and age… 
Today’s Data Cupboard has the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, a revision of 2nd QTR GDP… Hmm, you have to wonder what kind a hedonic adjustment will be made after all this time that they’ve had to adjust the GDP?
To recap… The dollar continued to get bought all day yesterday, and the broken record is now stuck on song 3… But in the overnight markets last night, someone finally took the needle off the broken record, and the dollar got sold… There are a lot of thoughts to why this began to happen last night, only time will tell…  Senators can now show up for work in shorts an tees… And people wonder what happened to our country?  Gold got hammered yesterday, and got taken below its 200-day moving avg.  Does that signal an end to the short Gold Paper Trading?  
For What It’s Worth… This is an interesting article on zero hedge that talks about credit cards losses… Is this the beginning of the end?  it can be read here: Credit Card Losses Are Surging At The Fastest Pace Since The Global Financial Crisis | ZeroHedge
Or, here’s your snippet: ” One month ago we warned that the toxic cocktail of Volcker-esque rates which have pushed the average credit card APR to a nose bleeding 21%…

… and surging credit card balances would lead to a catastrophic surge in consumer (and corporate) defaults (see “Credit Card Balances Hit Record Above $1 Trillion, Suffer “Pronounced Worsening” Amid Surge In New Delinquencies”) it is now Goldman’s turn.
As Goldman analyst Ryan Nash writes in his latest note, after bottoming in September 2021, credit card losses have risen for the past 24 months. While the initial increases were likely reversals from stimulus, “since 1Q22 outside of the GFC losses are rising at their fastest pace in almost 30 years.” Nash is concerned because “it is unusual for losses to rise outside of an economic downturn. In fact, of the prior five credit card loss cycles, three were characterized by recessions (early 90s, early 2000s and the great recession of 2008), while only two cycles (mid 90s and ’15 to ’19) the economy was not in a recession.”
Given this backdrop, Ryan’s did a deep dive comparing this cycle to the two prior non-recession credit loss increase / normalization cycles – 1) the mid-90s cycle and 2) the prior credit cycle (2015-2019) to asses where losses could be headed over the course of this cycle and the timing of it.

Losses currently stand at 3.63% (up ~150bps from the bottom) and based on Goldman’s analysis, the losses will rise at least another ~130ps from current levels (to ~4.93%), implying we are roughly halfway through the credit loss increase cycle. He also thinks delinquencies could continue to underperform seasonality through the middle of next year and don’t see losses peaking until late 2024 / early 2025 for most issuers. Relative to expectations, Goldman sees losses rising the most at COF, followed by DFS, which is hardly surprising following the credit card company’s own charge-off rate forecast .”

Chuck again… credit cards is how the economy is functioning these days, as consumers use them over and over again, building balances that can’t be paid off at month-end, and carried forward with these outrageous interest rates… This only has a chance to end in tears… 
Market Price 9/28/ 2023: American Style: A$ .6391, kiwi .5955, C$ .7413, euro 1.0546, sterling 1.2205, Swiss $1.0888, European Style: rand 19.1358, krone 10.7338, SEK 11.0191, forint 372.61, zloty 4.3955, koruna 23.1169, RUB 96.93, yen 149.30, sing 1.3692, HKD 7.8270, INR 83.19, China 7.3056, peso 17.64, BRL 5.0450, BBDXY 1,267.84, Dollar Index 106.28, OIl $93.29, 10-year 4.64%, Silver $22.81, Platinum $896.00, Palladium $1,232.00, Copper $3.66, and Gold… $1,876.70
That’s it for today and this week of course… The end of the regular season in baseball, will take place this coming weekend… UGH!  IF your a new reader this letter, you are bound to have figured out that I LOVE BASEBALL!  I do thoroughly enjoy all sports, but baseball is number 1 with me… Well, my time alone at home will come to an end on Saturday… Saturday night, I’ll be going to the StL City game at City Park… They only have two home games left… And I have tickets to both of them! StL! StL!  The last Super Moon of 2023 will take place this coming weekend, it will be the Harvest Moon… I love it when I’m at my place in S. Florida that looks out at the ocean, and the full moon comes up out of the ocean as an big orange ball… But I’m not there now, so I’ll have to search the sky here… The Who take us to the finish line today with their song: Behind Blue Eyes…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and will Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

A Broken Record Stuck On Song Two…

September 27, 2023

* currencies & metals get sold on Tuesday & overnight

* Wall Street Is going to require the FX market to change… 

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you… Well, the Brewers weren’t allowed to celebrate on the field last night, as the Cardinals prolonged their wait to be name division winners… Good friend, Rick, sent out a text to the group that said, “Where was this team all season?”… Good, clutch hitting, good pitching and good defense were all on display by the Cardinals last night, and those are things we should have seen a lot of this year, but… well, we didn’t! Our Blues won their exhibition game last night too… So, it was a good night for me! I started taking my new chemo Monday night… So far, so good… no problems yet… Now it just has to work to get the tumor in my jaw to recede…  The 60’s band: The Buckinghams greet me this morning with their song: Mercy, Mercy, Mercy… 
I know I sound like a broken record (Hey, they are back in style again, so it’s ok to say that again, YAHOO!) But the dollar got bought again yesterday all day, all the time… The BBDXY gained 2 more index points, which kept the euro below 1.06, sterling below 1.22, and Swiss below 1.10…  The Asian and Pan Asian currencies have really taken it on the chin from the dollar in recent trading sessions. The Chinese renminbi has tickled the red line that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) had drawn for the currency on the weak side… It will be interesting to see what the PBOC does when the renminbi does go past their red line… 
Gold continues to be sold in the short paper market and the short paper traders brought Gold down to $1,901.40 at the end of the day… These raids on Gold and Silver are getting so commonplace that it’s almost accepted by the media who fail to report what’s going on in earnest… Or by the regulators who just continue to look the other way… This is getting completely out of hand, folks, and somewhere, someone has to put a stop to this daily bloodletting the short paper traders are laying on Gold & Silver… Please! Serentiy NOW! 
The 10-year Treasury rose quickly back yesterday after a day of watching its yield drop, the yield rose to 4.52% And that just proves to me that the one day buying of the bond, was an orchestrated bond buying program that most likely was directed by the Fed Heads…  I’m just saying… 
And the price of Oil rebounded yesterday, gaining $2 to end the day trading with a $91 handle… 
In the overnight markets last night…  Broken record stuck on song two… The dollar got bought again last night, and pushed the currencies downward to even lower levels… The BBDXY gained 2 index points last night and starts today with a 1,269 figure… Gold is down again, and this time the short paper traders took it below $1,900… Gold has lost $9 this morning, and Silver has lost 8-cents… Every day, all day long, the dollar gets bought, and this is all happening while U.S. lawmakers are debating the budget that will most likely end up being suspended or something like that… 
The price of Oil held onto to its $2 gain yesterday, last night… and starts today with a $92 handle.  And the 10-year’s yield is 4.51% this morning… 
I forgot to mention yesterday, that when I was chastising the Bank of England (BOE) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) for not hike rates to combat inflation, that they didn’t do their respective currencies any good by pausing… The franc has slipped to below 1.10 for the first time in a while, and sterling fell below 1.22… Remember, a weak currency invites other countries inflation into yours… So, this is a pretty good illustration of that thought… I’m just saying… 
OK, regarding Gold… I found this piece on Kitco.com yesterday, let’s listen in… “Not only does Hooper see solid long-term bullish support for gold, but she said that an impending government shutdown could create some near-term safe-haven demand for the precious metal.
Congress has been unable to pass any funding legislation and it is expected the government will run out of funding for the fiscal year starting Oct. 1. According to some pundits, even if legislation was passed this week, it wouldn’t avoid a short shutdown next week.

Although a shutdown wouldn’t impact the nation’s sovereign debt, it would affect how it could conduct business domestically. Government employees would be furloughed.”

Chuck again… Yes, I mentioned the possible Gov’t shutdown last week, and said that it was a repeat of the drama that we just went through a couple of months ago… And while it is that, it is also a real threat this time… So, be prepared, is all I will say about that!  And if Gold can’t find a bid while this drama is going on, tells me that the selling is just too intense right now… UGH!
I found this on Bloomberg.com last night and made a mental note to come back to it this morning! I won’t give an intro: “Inflation has cooled down from a year ago, but that’s failing to allay the pain of Americans who are still paying up at gas pumps and grocery aisles.
As a result, there’s a growing disconnect between policymakers, who point to cooling inflation indicators as a sign of progress, and people who are struggling to make ends meet. Even as the Federal Reserve’s favored measure of price gains eases, the cost of food, gasoline, car insurance and other essentials is still elevated after two years of persistent increases. The rate of core inflation stands at 4.3%.”
Chuck again… They also pointed out that “The price for car insurance rose the most since December 1976″…  And as I explained months ago when the prices for everything went sky high, that they wouldn’t come back down to where they were before they spiked… It’s not how things work otherwise we would still be paying 23-cents for a gallon of gas at the pump! It’s a vicious cycle that goes on… prices on everything begin to rise, because there’s too much money in the system, and so the workers demand higher pay to combat the higher prices, and that makes the prices go higher still and so on… It’s never ended, until the interest rates go higher than the rate of inflation, and the deficit spending stops…  
And before we head to the Big Finish this morning I wanted to talk about this article that Russ and Pam Martens wrote yesterday on their: 
www.wallstreetonparade.com site…  “According to Bank of America’s federal regulatory filing known as the Call Report, for the quarter ending June 30, 2023, it had $105.79 billion in unrealized losses on its held-to-maturity (HTM) securities. That figure is not only far beyond the realm of what its peer banks reported, but it represents a stunning 34 percent of all unrealized losses on held-to-maturity securities reported by 4,645 FDIC-insured commercial banks and savings institutions as of June 30, according to the FDIC’s Quarterly Banking Profile. 

For the quarter ending June 30, the FDIC reported that all 4,645 FDIC-insured financial institutions had $309.6 billion in unrealized losses on held-to-maturity securities.”

Chuck again…  Ok, so these are held to maturity bonds, right? if the bank just holds them to maturity they get their principal back, and there’s no loss, right? Well, that’s the trap that SVB fell into… When there was a run on their bank deposits, the bank had to sell bonds to get cash, and that’s where the losses began to pile up… So, this is not information that should be taken lightly…  Instead it should be looked at as dangerous… risky…  and a potential time bomb…  Got Gold? 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday has the Case/Shiller Home Price Index, which I told you had been negative on monthly basis for some time now but, it was time for it not to be negative and it wasn’t! the HPI gained .01%… how about that? The Stupid Consumer Confidence index showed a drop from 108, to 103… Well, what did anyone expect here? The stock markets hasn’t exactly been running on all eight these days… 

To recap… Chuck sounds like a broken record, with all the daily talk of dollar buying continuing… The BBDXY has soared in the past week, and traded at 1,267 last night… Chuck takes the BOE And SNB to the woodshed, for not hiking rates last week… And everyday prices remain high in the U.S. and it’s draining the resources for consumers, who have had to resort to charging everything…   I don’t see how that doesn’t end up in tears… 
For What It’s Worth…  I found this article on Bloomberg.com yesterday afternoon, while looking for something else! It’s an article about how stock trades are going to start settling in just one day, while FX trades in 2 days (spot) and what problems this will cause the FX markets come next May… and it can be found here: Wall Street’s Need for Speed in Stocks Is Reshaping the FX World – Bloomberg
Or, here’s your snippet: “A looming shift in the way US equity trades are settled is sending unintended shock waves through the $7.5 trillion-a-day global market for foreign exchange.

At major financial institutions including banks, brokers and investment houses, currency desks are preparing for the world’s biggest stock market to halve the time it takes to settle equity transactions to just one day.
That switch — due in May next year — will put US stocks out of step with the world of foreign exchange, where trades typically take two days to complete. It means many overseas institutions trying to buy American assets will need to secure dollars in advance to ensure they can make settlement — or face a desperate scramble to find the cash in time.
Failure to do so would mean purchases falling through entirely.
The change sets up a potential pivotal moment for global currency markets that could reorder the established trading day. Longer hours for foreign-exchange desks in New York, rising volumes in Asia’s notoriously volatile mornings, and the relocation of staff out of Europe are among potential side effects when the new regime comes into force.

“The question is how to book, fund and settle any required foreign exchange trades within the required one-day time-frame when most FX markets settle on T+2 today,” a Citigroup Inc. team led by Okan Pekin wrote in a recent report. “Time zones matter in the move towards accelerated settlements and foreign investors are always the hardest hit.”

Chuck again…  boy do I see this changing the way foreign exchange trading desks work now… stay tuned because I’m sure there will be lots of follow up on this going forward…
Market Prices 9/27/2023: American Style: A$ 6369, kiwi .5928, C$ .7392, euro 1.0544, sterling 1.2141, Swiss $1.0888, European Style: rand 19.1871, krone 10. 7288, SEK 11.0234, forint 370.43, zloty 4.3819, koruna 23.1747, RUB 96.69, yen 149.18, sing 1.3714, HKD 7.8206, INR 83.23, China 7.3113, peso 17.61, BRL 5.0137, BBDXY 1,269.12, Dollar Index 106.42, Oil $92.24, 10-year 4.51%, Silver $22.81, Platinum $908.00, Palladium $1,278.00, Copper $3.64, and Gold… $1,892.10
That’s it for today… My beloved Mizzou Tigers travel to Nashville this Saturday to play the Commodores… They need to win this game to 5-0 and then head to a BIG GAME with LSU! I sure hope they don’t look ahead to the LSU game and forget to play Vandy….  I know, it’s only exhibition, but our Blues are looking better this year, especially on defense… Last season’s defense was awful, so I sure hope they got that straightened out! Well, I finally heard from my wife yesterday… She’s having a grand time in S. Florida… We had some loud storms come through the area last night, good thing the Cardinals were in Milwaukee… At one point in the early evening the sun was out but it was raining! I looked for a rainbow, but couldn’t find one in the sky… And RIP Brooks Robinson, the greates 3rd baseman to ever play…  I know that’s arguable, but in my opinion that’s where I rank him…  REM takes us to the finish line today with their mega hit song: Losing My Religion…   I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please, oh please, with sugar on top, Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

The Bond Rout Is On!

September 25, 2023

* Currencies drift lower to end the week…

* Japanese yen continues to get sold… 

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Whew! What an action packed, fun filled weekend it was for yours truly… Friday I went out to dinner with friends…  And Saturday was the BEST!  I witnessed my beloved Mizzou Tigers win, and then got home in time to watch the end of the StL City team’s win in Minnesnowta… Our Blues won on Saturday in their first exhibition game, and the Cardinals won in San Diego! A grand day for St. Louis sports fans! And the weather has been fantastico!  Can’t beat it with a stick!  I was worn out on Sunday, and couldn’t get the engine revved up… I’m getting too old to have that much fun!  The Babys greet me this morning with their song: Back On My Feet Again… 
Well… The stronghold that the dollar has had on the currencies and Gold continued on Friday last week, with the BBDXY moving up to 1,258… Not a huge move from the 1,257 it held on Thursday, but still upward movement for the dollar. It’ll take some time for the traders to get their arms around the fact that they should be selling dollars, like they were prior to the PPT’s intervention last week… They will be scared to go out on a limb, with the PPT standing there with loppers… 
Gold found a way to gain $5.30 on Friday, but… Gold was much higher during the session, but was pared down by the short paper traders… Gold ended the week at $1,925.80… Silver too, was going along quite nicely, and then, it wasn’t, and only gained 14-cents on the day, to end the week at $23.62…  You know me, right? I just finished reading Ed Steer’s Saturday letter, and in it he has a lot of thought from silver guru, Ted Butler, (no relation that I know of) And Ted believes that the short paper traders are going to rue the day they decided to get into the shorting business… This is based on the fact that there is a shortage of physical Silver… And sooner or later, probably sooner, this will all come to a head, and then the shorts will have to buy back to cover their positions, and that will create a mass exodus from short positions…  This could spill over to Gold, and Copper and all the commodities for that fact… So…  what will you do? 
The price of Oil bumped back to $90 to end the week, the brief dip below $90 lasted just 1 day… The 10-year Treasury ended the week with a 4.43% yield… This yield has really been moving upward since the FOMC meeting last week, when the Chairman Powell, said that rates would remain high for longer than anticipated previously… Shoot Rudy, the 1-year Treasury Bill is 5.45%… And mortgage rates? Well, they’re heading for 8% folks… watch them rise, I’m just warning you now, so lock in those mortgage loan rates! 
So… stocks haven’t been so hot lately, and that’s a direct result of the higher yields in Treasuries… And while I’m not even your last pick to play right field, I mean, to play a stock jockey I will point out something that I wrote for the Adens letter a few years ago, and that is that it is a proven fact that stocks do not perform well in a recession… I’m just saying… 
In the overnight markets last night… There was more of the same last night, as the dollar drifted higher, by 1 index point in the BBDXY. The real mover overnight was the 10-year’s yield… The U.S. Treasury note 10-year’s yield has risen to 4.50%, for the first time since 2007… The rout is on in bonds, and it’s all tied to the “higher, longer mantra”…  The price of Gold is down a buck this morning, and Silver is down 4-cents to start the day and week. Those are levels that are easily turned around, so let’s get to work! 
The price of Oil remained trading with a $90 handle overnight… The stories about a shortages continues here, and should keep the price of Oil elevated… 
I read a ton of news articles this past weekend, and one that really caught my eye, came from longtime reader, Bob, who sent me an article that talked about Norway’s wealth and Scandanavia’s wealth… That reminded me of an article that I wrote for Forbes magazine many years ago, when they asked me to write about something other than the euro… That was easy for me, as the currencies of Norway and Sweden had always been at the top of my parade list… It seems that through the years, nothing has changed in these two countries, as well as Finland, who gets the crown for happiest people country… That award has been traded between Norway, Sweden, Finland and Switzerland for years now. 
For years, I’ve pointed out the Sovereign Wealth Fund of Norway, and it still is something to behold… Norway has $250k+ in a pot for every single man, woman and child in their entire country, and wonders…  how do theu spend it? That’s a problem most would love to have — which is why more and more countries are setting up their own versions, with the Philippines’ launching one in July. All that wealth fund has been supplied with cash from the Oil industry… And a country that doesn’t deficit spend… Sound like a great place to live? Where you didn’t have to worry about excess debt collapsing your country’s economy, or wars, or civil destruction? 
I’ve always pointed out the difference between the Norwegian krone, and the Swedish krona, and that is Norway has the benefit of both being associated with the euro, and… it being a petrol currency, that benefits from the rise in the price of Oil… Sweden only has the association with the euro in its favor… 
So… what I’m saying here is that Norway has always been an alternative to the euro, and should be an integral part of one’s investment portfolio…  I’m just saying… 
And one other thing I want to mention is that how Sweden had abandoned their digital currency test a couple of years ago, and haven’t tried to implement it again… For that alone, I would own Swedish krona… 
Oh, and remember in 2020, when it was reported that Sweden remained open and didn’t adhere to the policies that were implement around the world? And everyone that was trying to sell the Kool-Aide, said that Sweden would rue the day that they decided to not follow the CDC rules? Well, they outperformed every other country on earth and never had mass deaths like it was reported that they would have… So… again, for that alone, I would own Swedish krona… 
Switching gears here… Those folks that didn’t read the Pfennig or heed my warnings that the Bank of Japan is known to disappoint the markets, are feeling the pinch of their positions in yen this morning, as the BOJ has not even given a head fake on a rate hike more, and the yen continues to lose ground… While most of the countries of the world that matter, have reached or will reach their rate hike cycle heights, The BOJ is scared to death to take the plunge into rate hikes, and that has hurt yen as much as anything…  I’m just saying… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard last week, had the Leading Indicators for the U.S. economy, and for the 17th month in a row, the Leading Indicators were negative…  But still no recession?  Well, the yield curve is still inverted, the Leading Indicators are still negative, and there is other data that tells us that we should be in a recession right now… But, I say patience… it’s a virtue you know…  They say that “good things come to those who wait”… Well, I doubt a recession is a good thing for a lot of people, but it will be a good thing for the economy to clean out the excesses of the previous boom…  I’m just saying… 
The Philly Fed Index (manufacturing in the region) went from a plus 12 to a negative 13.5 in one month!  Things can go to hell in a hand basket in the blink of an eye, so, stay tuned, don’t turn the dial, and keep watching this Empire crumble… 
The Data Cupboard this week starts out with nothing on the docket for today, and then throughout the week the Data Cupboard will have pieces of data that should tell a story at least, like Wednesday’s Durable Goods Orders, which have been negative lately… And Personal Income and Spending that will print on Friday this week… 
To recap… The dollar continued to get bought on Friday, albeit at a slower pace than earlier in the week. Gold started out up big time on Friday, but ended the day up only $5.30, and the same for Silver which ended up 14-cents after spending most of the day up more than 14-cents!  Chuck goes into a long explanation of why he has always given the Norwegian krone and Swedish krona special thoughts… 
For What It’s Worth… I talked briefly above about how the FOMC signalled that rates would be higher, longer above this morning, and then ai came across this article that talks about that and what it signals for us as a country, and it can be found here: Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: Higher for Longer
Or, here’s your snippet: “I had no major issues with Powell’s press conference. We’d prefer to see the head of the Federal Reserve, the world’s preeminent central bank, decisive and exuding confidence. Powell was instead notably humble and cautious, attributes befitting today’s extraordinary backdrop (not to mention recent Fed forecasting lapses). Significant revisions to the committee’s Survey of Economic Projections (“dot plot”) only elevated Powell’s communications challenge.

Ten-year Treasury yields jumped nine bps Wednesday to 4.41%, and then Thursday traded above 4.50% for the first time since October 2007. Benchmark MBS yields traded as high as 6.33% intraday Wednesday – matching the high back to July 2007 – before closing the week 12 bps higher at 6.17%.
Surging yields were not limited to Treasury and agency securities. Sovereign yields hit at least decade highs this week in countries including Canada, Germany, France, Spain, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan.
Markets have been in denial. Perhaps it was just seeing reality codified in the Fed’s “dot plot” that forced a reality check. Economic momentum has persisted in the face of sharply higher policy rates, tempering labor market cooling while reinforcing inflation dynamics. The bullish Goldilocks narrative of rapidly declining inflation, comfy economic deceleration, and an impending easing cycle was just too farfetched (and so previous cycle). “Higher for Longer” is real and needs to be factored into analyses and asset prices.

But “Higher for Longer” is a big problem. It’s a problem for our federal government’s massive debt load, with ballooning debt service costs at the cusp of spiraling out of control. It’s a problem for risky corporate borrowers with a Trillion of debt to refinance over the next two years. It’s a problem for a banking system sitting on enormous underwater “held to maturity” bond portfolios, along with an equities market dominated by over-valued growth stocks. It’s a problem for millions of households who have loaded up on debt. It is a big problem for an over-indebted world.”

Chuck again… Yes, it will become a real problem, but what would you rather have, high inflation, or high interest rates? I’m just asking…  It’s the same old question once again… Inflate or die…  Got Gold? 
Market Prices 9/25/2023: American Style: A$ .6426, kiwi .5967, C$ .7440, euro 1.0630, sterling 1.2234, Swiss $1.1123, European Style: rand 18.7398, krone 10.74444, SEK 11.0252, forint 367.72, zloty 4.3123, koruna 22.9163, RUB 96.09, yen 148.64, sing 1.3658, HKD 7.8176, INR 83.14 China 7.3098, peso 17.20, BRL 4.9363, BBDXY 1,259.60, Dollar Index 105.65, Oil $90.03, 10-year 4.50%, Silver $23.58, Platinum $924.00, Palladium $1,250.00, Copper $3.70, and Gold… $1,924.58
That’s it for today… Well they say that all good plan today is better than a good plan tomorrow… And for me that’s how it worked yesterday, as I had planned to take it easy and relax and try to recover from two nights of play… But then I moved that plan to today, because I got an invitation to go watch the Chiefs game… on a deck, at a watering hole, and those plans were thrown out the window! Last week when I was at the oncologist’s office they had me get on the scale, like they always do, and I was shocked at my weight.. I had reached a weight that i had not been at in 30 years!  YAHOO!  Hey! Did I tell you that I’m looking forward to my high school’s 50 year reunion?  I don’t believe that there will be many of us that attend, but those that do, will have a grand time! The band Doucette takes us to the finish line today with their song: Mama Let Him Play…  (great solo guitar work in this song!) I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and will please remember to Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

FOMC Stays Put…

September 21, 2023

*currencies & metals get sold on Wednesday…

* Chuck thinks differently than everyone else… (like that’s news?)

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Two days in the books for me being all by myself again, and no problems, so far… I don’t expect there to be any, but… Then again, I never, ever, even thought, that I would suffer a stroke, so there’s that lesson to be learned…  Day game at Busch Stadium today, and I’m going to go! YAHOO! We’ll probably have to dodge some raindrops… reminds me of: “if all the raindrops were lemondrops and gumdrops, oh what a rain it would be”… Silly… I know, but I guess I’m in that kind of a mood this morning… The Moody Blues greet me this morning with the song: New Horizons…  “Well, I’ve had dreams enough for one, and I’ve had love enough for three… Yeah that song… 
Well, the FOMC left their powder dry yesterday, deciding that inflation had gone down by quite a bit (according to them), and that they are satisfied to stay pat for now…  Here’s a snippet of what was said, ” At a news conference, Fed Chari Jerome Powell stressed the Fed has made no decision about whether to lift rates again and is no rush to do so.

“Given how far we’ve come, we are in a position to proceed carefully,” he said.
Powell said he’s pleased with how much inflation has come down but officials want to see a more sustained decline before concluding they can keep rates steady.

“We want to see convincing evidence that we’ve reached the appropriate level” of interest rates, he said. Noting that inflation has fallen encouragingly since May, he added, “We want to see that for more than just three months.”

Hmmm, I guess he didn’t see the data from last week that showed inflation had bumped higher in August, and was rebounding as we live and breathe… These guys they love to spin the words around so that they can get the message across that they want you to hear…  Jerome Powell knows all too well that a higher inflation, helps to deal with the debt burden that he helped to create.  He’s faced with a question of: Inflate or die… And it looks as though he’s going to go with the inflate way to die… I’m just saying
The dollar, which was down all morning, at least 4 index points in the BBDXY, turned around and rallied after the FOMC announcement… Why? I have no idea why, since it really sounded to me like the Fed Heads were finished hiking rates… But, these days, you never know what gets into these traders’ minds… So, the dollar rebounded yesterday afternoon, and ended the day at 1,254… up two index points from yesterday’s close, and up 6 index point from its low point of the day…  Quite a turnaround, eh? 
The PPT boys and girls must have been awakened from their slumbers and told that the dollar was in trouble, and that they needed to act… And act they did! The turnaround was something to see!  Ed Steer, had a comment on the dollar index this morning, that I liked, here’s Ed: “If you believe for one second that dollar index rally came about because of free-market forces starting at 2 p.m. on the Fed news, I have a bridge for sale you may be interested in — and at a very good price.”
The currencies got hammered yesterday… The Big Dog euro, had to be taken to the vet, because it looked so sickly, and the other little dogs were left to be on their own, and they didn’t get the love they needed… The best performing currency yesterday was the Russian ruble!   Go figure!    
Gold had a nice gain going all morning, too, but then it didn’t, and had to struggle to finish the day down just $1.10, While Silver’s early morning gain was chopped down to just 4-cents… Gold ended the day at $1,930.80, and Silver ended the day at $23.32…  Gold ended up being more than $18 off its high of the day…  That took a lot of short paper trades to get it down to negative 1.10…  I’m just saying
The price of Oil has lost $2 of its price since we last talked on Tuesday, and ended the day yesterday with a $90 handle… Still strong, but not AS strong… Nothing has changed in regard to the lack of supply, but I guess there comes a time when even the strong get knocked down for a bit…  But here’s where I think the rubber meets the road with the price of Oil…  the net long in speculative positioning is not yet at extremes. That means the price of Oil has the potential to run even higher, as the overbought position in Oil is not yet at extremes…  
And the 10-year’s yield ended the day yesterday with a 4.40% yield… That’s the highest that the 10-year has been in a very long time!  And shows to go ya, that without interference, where the markets will take yields…  I’m just saying… 
In the overnight markets last night… Well, the PPT got exactly what they wanted from their intervention in the dollar yesterday, and that was shown last night, as the overnight markets bought dollars like Tickle Me Elmos! The BBDXY has gained another 5 index points to 1,257 this morning… Gold is down $9 in the early trading, and Silver has given back 18-cents this morning. I’m so distraught this morning, because of al this intervention in the dollar and currencies yesterday… The short paper traders were egregious with their brazen trading, and just when I was beginning to believe that their power over the assets was waning… They proved me wrong, once again… 
And somehow, the price of Oil has lost its edge it held earlier this week… The price of Oil has slipped to an $89 handle this morning… So, apparently, all that talk about supply issues that I chronicled previously, don’t mean a hill of beans… Stupid me… how could I get taken in on an fundamentals story?  Oh well, we move along… 
The 10-year has added some more yield to its 4.40% close yesterday, and this morning it trades with a 4.44% yield! I told you that these yields had no interference in them yesterday, but I have to amend that statement by saying that the Fed Heads with their talk about keeping rates here for longer than previously thought, was a way to interfere with bond yields, and so there you go! 
I was reading Bill Bonner’s letter yesterday, and thinking all the while reading it, that he’s bang on with his thought that the Fed Heads will end up in a panic and decide to cut rates, and direct them lower, and try to make us all forget the “fight the inflation” verbiage… 
I truly believe that interest rates will return to the downward trend they had been on since the early 1980s until around 2022, and that this return of lower rates will ignite inflation in a stronger form than it was before… Can you say” Uber high goods prices?” Well, you should learn to say it because from the looks of it, the Fed Heads have made their choice at the fork in the road and have decided to go down the inflation till we die, road… 
The pundits that write about the markets are calling the FOMC announcement yesterday “A Hawkish pause”… Wait! What? I printed the statement above by Jerome Powell, how did they get that his words were “hawkish”? That’s what got the yield on the 10-year moving higher, and the dollar rebounding yesterday… The markets believe that Jerome Powell was sending smoke signals that rates will go higher… I’m sorry, I didn’t see this thought by the markets earlier, because to me it doesn’t have anything to back it up!   UGH!  
Am I the only person on earth that sees this for what it is? I shake my head in disbelief… 
Well today, we’ll see if the Bank of England or the Swiss National Bank want to wet their powder… I think the Bank of England (BOE) will hike rates, and I’m not sure one way or the other with the SNB…  But we won’t have to wait long to find out, as they will be making their announcements not long after I hit send this morning, and you’re reading the letter… The problem with a rate hike as far as the respective currencies are involved, is that the traders don’t give credit to a currency any longer for having increase its interest rate… These are the days when a Central Bank would hike rates, and the arbitrages would start taking one currency over another that didn’t hike rates… But those days are over, as a currency’s value is now all about Trader Sentiment, who may are may not pay attention to the fundamentals of a country’s currency… 
The POTUS and the leader of Ukraine, both stood before the UN this week and asked the world to stand with them against Russia… Sure, but does that standing with them require Billions of dollars to be spent in doing so? Billions of dollars that we don’t have to spend?  Oh, that’s right, if we need more cash, we can just have the Treasury fire up the printing presses… (Ok I know that they don’t use printing presses for the Billions that get sent overseas… it’s just an image that I don’t want to lose) 
And besides the deficit spending that’s an issue here, the other thing that’s going on is reported by Reuters: “China urged increased cross-border connectivity with Russia and deeper mutual trade and investment cooperation, as both allies vowed ever closer economic ties. With the war in Ukraine well in its second year and Russia under Western sanctions, Moscow has leaned on its ally Beijing for economic support.”
How’d we get into this situation in the first place? Why were we responsible for Ukraine’s protection?  Oh, that’s right, we put their leader in place, and then talked them into becoming members of NATO, which has been the red line for Russian leaders since WWII… That see Ukraine as an entry to their country, in an invasion, and that’s not what they’re going to stand for..  But the media in this country tells the story differently, and they place all the blame on a mad man in Russia…  Well, both are at fault now, and if would behoove the to sit down and iron out differences before this spills into WWIII…  I’m just saying… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard gets back into action today, with the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which surprisingly have been weak lately, when one would think that the claims would be growing, but then that thought comes from someone that thinks logically…  The other data piece today to bear arms, is the Leading Indicators, which have been negative for months now, and I don’t see any reason for it to change in August… 
To recap… The dollar rebounded yesterday after the FOMC announcement that they were keeping rates on hold, and Chuck was in disbelief of what he was seeing, until it occurred to him that the markets got the FOMC’s statement all wrong… They seem to believe that the chairman’s words were hawkish… Chuck didn’t see it that way and gives you his thoughts on where this is going to lead… Yeah, you better go back and read that, if you skipped over it! 
For What It’s Worth… Well, I’ll end this week with this uplifting note from zerohedge.com… (NOT!) This is all about how this fellow is calling the international debt a “Ponzi scheme”… And it can be found here: The Coming Collapse Of The Global Ponzi Scheme | ZeroHedge
Or, here is your snippet: “As economist Herbert Stein once said, “If something cannot go on forever, it has a tendency to stop.” Case in point: fiat money political regimes. Interventionist economies of the West are in a fatal downward spiral, comparable to that of the Roman Empire in the second century, burdened with unsustainable debt and the antiprosperity policies of governments, especially the Green New Deal.

In the global Ponzi scheme, thin air and deceit substitute for sound money. As hedge-fund manager Mitch Feierstein wrote in Planet Ponzi, “You don’t solve a Ponzi scheme; you end it.” Charles Ponzi and Bernie Madoff
…made some of their investors a whole lot poorer, but the world didn’t come crashing down as a result.
For that‌—‌for a Ponzi scheme that would threaten to bankrupt capitalism across the entire Western world‌—‌you need people much smarter than Ponzi or Madoff. You need time, you need energy, you need motivation. In a word, you need Wall Street.
But Wall Street alone doesn’t have the strength to deliver a truly cataclysmic outcome. If your ambition is to create havoc on the largest possible scale, you need access to a balance sheet running into the tens of trillions. You need power. You need prestige. You need a remarkable willingness to deceive. In a word, you need Washington.
As Gary North wrote in a brief review of Feierstein’s book, “The central banks have colluded with the national governments in order to fund huge increases of national debt, beyond what can ever be paid off. In other words, [Feierstein] has described government promises as part of a gigantic international Ponzi scheme.”

In a recent interview, Peter Schiff, who was laughed at when he predicted the economic meltdown of 2007–9, said interest on the federal debt alone “will be about a trillion by the end of this year. By the end of next year [it will reach] two trillion dollars—and that’s if interest rates don’t go up. . . . This is a huge debt bomb that’s going to explode.”

Chuck again… Yes, nothing new here from what I’ve been telling you for years, but as always, it gets spun a different way, and so now you’re aware! 
Market Prices 9/21/2023: American Style: A$ .6405, kiwi .5913, C$ .7405, euro 1.0642, sterling 1.2276, Swiss $1.1037, European Style: rand 18.9308, krone 10.8144, SEK 11.1881, forint 360.02, zloty 4.3440, koruna 22.9575, RUB 95.83, yen 147.88, sing 1.3683, HKD 7.8214, INR 83.09, China 7.3056, peso 17.15, BRL 4.9005, BBDXY 1,257.58, Dollar Index 105.58, Oil $89.17, 10-year 4.44%, Silver $23.18, Platinum $919.00, Palladium $1,252.00, Copper $3.71, and Gold… $1,921.13
That’s it for today… And tomorrow of course! A tie last night at City Park, for our StL City team. Last week the team tied Houston in Houston, and a tie on the road sure feels better than a tie at home… I’m just saying… There are only two more home games, of which I have tickets for both… I was searching all over the internet yesterday for some good/ reasonable seats for today’s day game… I’ll try again this morning, thinking some last minute bargains might be had… My beloved Cardinals are limping to the goal line of the season’s end… All the fans ask for is for the team to play every game competitively till the end… It’s a good thing the Cardinals are not heading to the playoffs this year, as injuries late this year, have really reduced their ability to compete… The Construction people were supposed to have shown up here yesterday to begin work on rebuilding the inside of our house….. They didn’t show up, and I sat here all day waiting for them! UGH!  Oh well I’m not waiting today, I’m going to the day game at Busch!  Bob Seeger and his Silver Bullet band take us to the finish line today with their great song: Turn the Page… This song was written in the 70’s, and reminded me of my time “on the road”…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and please, Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

Playing The Waiting Game…

September 19, 2023

* currencies & metals bump higher on Monday

* Chuck is all alone once again… 

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! What a wonderful surprise last night, as Cardinals Pitcher, Adam Wainwright, was the winning pitcher for the 200th time… I was dead wrong a couple of weeks ago, when I said that Adam should hang them up, as that was after he couldn’t get out the 2nd   inning against the Royals… The Royals, for cryin’ out loud! But he rallied, and won his last two starts to get to 200… It was a beautiful day here yesterday, and the night at the ballpark was probably just wonderful!  I won’t be writing tomorrow, folks, my oncologist called yesterday and asked me to change my appt to tomorrow morning… bright and early… So, I agreed, because she wouldn’t ask me to change it, if she didn’t see a reason to see me…  And once again, I’m all alone for the next 11 days… All by myself… Hello? Pizza Man Pizza? The Band, Lighthouse, greets me this morning with their song: One Fine Morning… 
Well, yesterday’s price action in the dollar and the currencies didn’t move much… The BBDXY lost about 1 index point to 1,252, but the show of the currencies didn’t produce any real winner, winner, Chicken dinners… Gold was able to gain $9.40 on the day to end the day at $1,934.50, and Silver gained 18-cents to end the day at $23.32… Some real “Mr. Obvious” wrote on Kitco.com yesterday, that Gold will benefit from a weakening dollar”… Really? I wonder what gave him that clue?  Yes, a weaker dollar would push more people into Gold as a safe haven, but everyone and their brothers knows that, and we didn’t need to be reminded of it!   
The price of Oil bumped higher by another buck yesterday, and ended the day trading with a $92 handle. Do you believe that investors have finally seen what I’ve been talking about for months now, that the supply would diminish as the summer wore on, and the price would rise? I found this on Bloomberg.com this morning: “The gains in recent sessions have been accompanied by a jump in key time spreads that suggest the market is undersupplied, while bullish call options are also getting more expensive.”
The 10-year’s yield dropped to 4.31% yesterday, don’t ask me why, for I have no idea, other than there could be some holdouts to the thought that the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel would pivot at their meeting tomorrow… I would have thought that we had weeded out all those wayward thinkers, but apparently not… 
In the overnight markets last night:  Well, there was more drifting in the dollar, but when the dust settled, the BBDXY lost 1 index point and starts today at 1,251… Gold is up a buck in the early trading today, while Silver is up 4-cents to start the day… I doubt there will be much movement from any asset today, and tomorrow, ahead of the FOMC meeting… The price of Oil held on to its $92 handle… Brent Crude traded over $95 this morning, and it seems to be leading the way for the West Texas Intermediate (WTI)…  The 10-year Treasury holds a 4.31% yield this morning, after a night of drifting in this asset too… 
Let’s not forget that after tomorrow’s trip to fantasy land, when the FOMC Meets, that on Thursday, the U.K. and Swiss National Bank, meet to discuss rates… Last week the European Central Bank (ECB ) hiked rates, and made statements that the rate hikes would keep coming should inflation continue to weigh on the economies of the European Union…  Well, at first glance, Eurozone inflation eased a bit last month in a report that printed last night… I hope the ECBers don’t get a big head and think that they have defeated inflation… As we’ve seen in the U.S., inflation seems to remain and come back even stronger, just when you thought you had it on the run… 
I saw yesterday, that the famous author, publisher, and person, Bill Bonner wrote about that article on MarketWatch.com that had me seething over the weekend…  He pointed out the same thing I pointed out that the writer’s premise was all wrong… And that he used stale old data that was useful for his argument, instead of using fresh data that would have put his argument to shame… Here’s s a snippet of Bill from his letter yesterday: “ We read quickly, not wanting to waste time, but curious; the financial press is more likely to peddle misconceptions than to dispose of them. Sure enough, the article is a pot-Poruri of error: the debt is not too high…it doesn’t need to be paid off… it’s not bad for the economy…there’s no crisis coming…and everybody does it.” – Bill Bonner 
And then I thought of the Gov’t putting the writer up to this bit of misconception… For if the writer can get one person out there to believe this gunk, then that one person can tell others, and so on… So, my warning to all is to not accept this gobbledygook as the truth…  
This data in from the Fed St. Louis, and doesn’t spell a pretty picture for U.S. consumers…  Let’s get into this: “U.S. consumers ran up their credit card debt past the $1 trillion mark for the first-time last month, according to a report on household debt from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Total household debt, which includes home and auto loans, has eclipsed $17 trillion.
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis reports that credit card delinquencies, which are still low compared to periods such as the Great Financial Crisis, are on the rise.”
Chuck again… And delinquencies are on the rise… Uh-Oh!  
There was a blip on MarketWatch.com yesterday, that said, that with no additional spending, the U.S. debt will add $5 Billion per day for the next ten years!  That equals a 1.825 Trillion in annual debt being added each year… And I think that number is a little light… I think that when all the beans are counted the annual debt will rise by $2 Trillion each year, just based no the rise in cost to service the debt, that will continue to grow, and require financing at much higher interest rates… 
And to illustrate what I’m saying… And a quick trip to the debt clock tells me that the U.S. has now gone past $33 Trillion, rising over $1 Trillion in just 3 months!  Just think, if that continued to be the bill of fare every 3 months, the annual debt would be $4 Trillion!  OK, I don’t think it will come to that, but still, once the money is spent, there’s not calling it back, and once you get to $1 Trillion every 3 months, it won’t be that big of a deal to do it again… At least it won’t be a big deal to the “magic Money Tree” people… 
I had to clean off my writing desk yesterday, this was a monumental challenge for me, but I got it done!  My desk had gotten ruined in the flood… UGH!  In doing this I came across a cartoon that reminded me of my call in life, which is to get investors to diversify their investment portfolios, using metals and currencies… The cartoon shows a hen with tip cup sitting next to her, and she sits there with a sign that says: “All my eggs where in one basket”  
There will come a time, once again, where the dollar will be getting sold daily, and at that time you will wish you had bought some currencies when they were cheap to offset the dollar’s losses…  I don’t know when this will occur, I just know that in the history of the fiat dollar (since 1971), there have been strong dollar trends, followed by weak dollar trends, followed by strong dollar trends, followed by weak dollar trends, and then finally the strong dollar trend that we have been experiencing for more than 10 years now… The previous trends could last 10 to 17 years… So, we’re in the area of historic trends, that it could go either way…  I wouldn’t be betting that it could last another 6 years, that’s for sure! 
The U.S. data Cupboard today, still is lacking at best, with only some housing data on the docket… So, once again, the markets wait on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting… I think the markets are all on board with the thought that the Fed will pause this month, but sound very hawkish in doing so…  You know where I stand with what the FOMC should do, so I’m in difference with the Fed Heads… What else is new? 
To recap… The dollar drifted throughout Monday’s U.S. session, and ended up losing 1 index point in the BBDXY. The currencies couldn’t really get fully on the rally tracks, but Gold gained $9 and Silver gained 18-cents, Chuck pointed out that even Bill Bonner thought the article on MarketWatch.com this past weekend was a waste of time! Credit Card delinquencies are rising, which wouldn’t be a big deal if the total credit card debt was insignificant, but it reached $1 Trillion last month!  The price of Oil bumped higher again by a buck, seems to be a daily occurrence now, eh? 
For What it’s Worth… the proverbial well was dry this morning, with regards to FWIW worthy articles… But I did find this on wall street on parade, it’s an old repeat article by them, about the banking crisis, and who should have known this was coming down the pike, and it can be found here: Evidence Suggests U.S. Financial Crisis Started on August 14, 2019 (wallstreetonparade.com)
Or, here’s your snippet: “n the Federal Reserve’s most recent “Supervision and Regulation Report” on the big bank holding companies it “supervises,” the Fed continued its attempts to perpetuate the narrative that “The banking industry came into 2020 in a healthy financial position” and has simply unraveled as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. That narrative is built on the same flimsy house of cards that the New York Times and Andrew Ross-Sorkin built the narrative that the mega banks on Wall Street were not responsible for the 2008 financial collapse.

The Fed is desperate to promote this narrative to stop a new Congress next year from holding hearings on why the Fed, for the second time in 12 years, had to engage in trillions of dollars in Wall Street bank bailouts after reassuring Congress for years that the financial system was fine as the Fed loosened or rolled back reforms like the Volcker Rule. The Fed needs this narrative to prevail in order to cover up its own negligent supervision of the behemoth banks.
Depending on the composition of Congress next year, those hearings might bring about not only a restoration of the Glass-Steagall Act (which bans trading houses on Wall Street from combining with federally-insured, deposit-taking banks) but might also put an end to the Fed’s ability to negligently supervise the big banks with one hand, while bailing them out with the other hand, using money it creates out of thin air. (The Fed will report its latest balance sheet tally today at 4:30. It is expected to be close to $7 trillion from the $6.7 trillion it reported last week – which is $2.8 trillion more than it was exactly one year ago. The growth in the Fed’s balance sheet has come as a result of efforts to prop up Wall Street banks.)

The Fed knew, or should have known (since it has hundreds of people monitoring the markets at the New York Fed) that there was a big banking crisis brewing in August of last year.”

Chuck again… this article goes on to give you the timeline of things that should have given someone with an ounce of gray matter a clue that there was a problem brewing, and if you have the time, it would be good if clicked the link above and read the truth… not the gobbledegook the media tries to lay off on you! 
  
Market Prices 9/19/2023: American Style: A$ .6459, kiwi .5941, C$ .7440, euro 1.0703, sterling 1.2395, Swiss $1.1160, European Style: rand 18.9366, krone 10.7445, SEK 11.1044, forint 358.18, zloty 4.3467, koruna 22.8205, RUB 96.15, yen 147.62, sing 1.3629, HKD 7.8180, INR 83.27, China 7.2905, peso 17.08, BRL 4.8542, BBDXY 1,251.58, Dollar Index 104.92, Oil $92.66, 10-year 4.31%, Silver $23.36, Platinum $942.00, Palladium $1,249.00, Copper $3.75, and Gold… $1,935.69
That’s it for today… Don’t forget that I’ll not be writing tomorrow… See you again on our Tub Thumpin’ Thursday! I think I’m going to be getting my new Chemo after new bloodwork, that shows that I’m good to go… I did’t take down all my pictures on the drawing board that is part of my writing desk… There are a lot of good memories there, espcially the one that I look at directily every time I sit down… It’s of me and my oldest sister, Brenda… We lost Brenda at an early age of 39 with cancer… Another fave of mine is of my dad, my brother David, and me sitting on our old dilapidated back porch, when I was probably 10 years old… OK.. enough of that… The Cure takes us to the finish line today with their song: Just Like Heaven…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!
 
Chuck Butler

3 Central Bank Decisions This Week!

September 18, 2023

* currencies & metals rally a bit on Friday

* Waiting on the FOMC… 

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, yesterday was September 17th… And do you know why that day is important to us? Give up? It was Constitution Day!  Our Constitution is one of the most important documents in World-History, and the sad thing is that in today’s world, most people don’t understand it, or appreciate it… Well, I’m going to point you to www.prageru.com for lessons on what the Constitution is and what it does, they are just 5 minute videos, so I know you have time!  How about my beloved Mizzou Tigers? An SEC record long kick won the game 30-27… 61 yards is how far the young man in Black and Gold had to get the ball off his foot through the uprights! The Tigers are now 3-0, and come to St. Louis to play next Saturday night!  Jackson Browne greets me this morning with his great song: These Days… 
I use some lyrics to the song These Days, from time to time, as longtime readers will recognize: These days I sit on cornerstones, and count the time in quarter tones, don’t remind me of my failures, I had not forgotten them… 
OK… Well, when I left you on Thursday morning, the dollar was getting bought, in the overnight markets, and that continued, albeit at a watered down pace throughout Thursday, with the BBDXY gaining 3 index points to 1,253… Gold was allowed to gain $2.70, while Silver lost 18-cents… The data from Thursday was insignificant to the trading of currencies & metals. The price of Oil continue to move higher and ended the day with a $90 handle. 
Friday, started out with Gold on the rally tracks… Wait! What? Yes, those are strange words these days, but they were true, as Gold ended the week up $13.50 on Friday, and Silver gained 41-cents…  That gave Gold a $1,925.50 ending week price, and Silver a $23.14 ending week price… The dollar drifted throughout the day on Friday, and ended the day in the same clothes it began the day wearing. The BBDXY ended the week at 1,253… I think that with all the Central Banks that will meet this week, that traders on Friday, thought, oh, what the heck, let’s throw in the towel for this week and come back Monday with new purpose… 
I want to talk about Gold & Silver’s rise on Friday… Because at first glance you might think that the boys in the band, the short paper traders, price manipulators, dirty dogs, had taken a day off, but not so fast there pardner! Gold ended the day up $13.50, but at one point in the day it was up $20, and Silver was higher at one point in the day by 20-cents… So, even in days when Gold & Silver seem to be getting bought, the short paper traders have to stick it to the metals…  I’m just saying… 
I mentioned above that there are a few Central Bank meeting this week… The Fed/ Cabal / Cartel will meet on Wednesday… The word on the street right now is that the Fed Heads will pass on a rate hike this month… Even with the higher tick of inflation that printed last week? I’m not buying it, that the FOMC will pass this month, but what difference does it make any way? I see the FOMC saying that the data has been good lately, and therefore they will pass… Because IF they decided to hike rates again, then they would have to tell us that inflation is rising again, and that could signal a rally for Gold… And they can’t have that! 
So… Let’s see, there’s the FOMC on Wednesday… The Bank of England and Swiss National Bank will also meet to discuss rates this week… Last week saw the Russian Central Bank hike rates to 13%,  And the European Central Bank (ECB) hike rates to the highest level ever for the ECB…  And rates are only in th 4% handle… Now that tells you something about why the euro has lagged these last 10 years, eh? 
In overnight markets last night… Well, there was little to no movement in the dollar and currencies last night, as what I fear is that everyone is hunkering down ahead of the 3 Central Bank meetings this week, with the FOMC meeting dominating the proceedings… The BBDXY is still trading with a 1,253 handle, and the price of Oil has bumped higher by a buck overnight and trades this morning with a $91 handle… It sure looks to me like the price of Oil is headed to $95 and maybe above… I have something for you in the FWIW section today on Diesel supply problems, so you wont’ want to have missed that! 
Gold is up a buck in the early trading today, and starts the week on a good note… Silver is up 23-cents early this morning, of course this is a couple of hours before the boys in the band show up at their desks…  wink, wink… The 10-year’s yield, hasn’t seen any interference in a few days, now, and so we see its yield rising… The 10-year’s yield trades this morning at 4.35%… Still not even in the ballpark when compared to “real inflation”, and not the kind the Gov’t spits out and tells us is inflation… What a bunch of gobbledygook! 
You know, I’ve been writing about the increase in bond servicing costs for the U.S. Gov’t and how that these costs are going to cause the financial system to collapse… Well, in searching through The Fed St. Louis’s data base the other day I came across something that blew my mind… Check this out: Personal interest payments in the US hit a record $506 BILLION in July. During the first 7 months of 2023, Americans paid a total of $3.3 TRILLION in personal interest. This is up a staggering 80% since 2021 and nearly above the entire 2022 total.
And guess what these numbers don’t include? These numbers do NOT include interest on mortgage payments. Can you say that consumers too are having problems paying the interest on their debt? 
I mentioned above how inflation had recovered in August… And then I read a piece on www.marketwatch.com that talked about how Health Care Costs are rising again, and could really put the kyboshes on the Fed Heads dreaming they could get inflation back to 2%… Apparently there was a real phenomenon going on in Health Care Costs this year, that actually had them going negative for a while, but that’s all changed now, and these costs are heading higher again… Oil prices are much higher… Health Care costs are going higher…  and inflation… it’s heading higher once again! 
Speaking of Oil… The price of Oil has posted its 3rd weekly gain, and the POTUS said the other day that “he would get gas prices back down”… Good luck with that Mr. POTUS… 
So… last week we saw the ECB hike rates, and what did the euro do? It lost ground to the dollar… We also saw the Russian Central Bank hike rates and what did the ruble do?  it lost a little bit of ground to the dollar, as the price of Oil has helped keep the ruble afloat… So, where are the fundamentals?  If it’s good for the dollar to gain when the FOMC hikes rates, then it should be good for the gander… But in today’s world… That’s baloney!   Hey! don’t knock baloney, I love a baloney sandwich, just like I would have when I was a kid!   Anyway, in today’s world, trader sentiment controls the currencies directions… And when the trader sentiment changes to sell dollars, we had better get out of the way of that run-away bus… I’m just saying… 
I read an article this past weekend that had me seething, yelling at the walls, and trying all day to come back with something witty about this writer’s article… It was an article that stated that there are 5 myths about the $32 Trillion Current Debt, that are all wrong about why it’s bad….  Shoot Rudy, I was telling people that the current Debt at $7.5 Trillion, years ago, was bad, and I stand by those thoughts… The writer, used 2021 interest costs for the debt, and stated that it was no problem… Ahem… Why not use current data that would show that interest costs on debt are soaring?  Well, we all know the answer to that question… because that data doesn’t sell what he’s trying to sell… snake oil… I can’t tell you how mis-directed this article was… UGH!
The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week had the August Retail Sales, and they surprised us with a .6% gain… But when you looked under the hood, you found that rising gas prices were the culprit behind the rise… So, that data is not worth the paper its printed on… So, we move along…  
This week’s Data Cupboard doesn’t have much, other than some housing data the first part of the week,  and then on Wednesday, the FOMC meeting takes place, and will dominate the news and markets on that day… 
To recap… The dollar rallied in the middle of the week last week, and then held on to its gains throughout the weekend and overnight markets last night… Gold & Silver were allowed to gain on Friday, but their gains were watered down by the short paper traders….  Russia & ECB hike rates last week, with the U.S. U.K. and Swiss all on the docket this week for rate decisions… What will the FOMC do?  If I were the Chairman of the FOMC, I owuld be pounding the table for more rate hikes to combat the rising inflation… But then I’m not the chairman of the FOMC, and I doubt he’s have my thoughts in his mind today… Too bad, eh?   
I’m not bragging here, but there are quite a few Gov’t and Agency leaders that could use a good amount of “Chuck” when making their decisions… I’m just saying! 
For What It’s Worth… Well, I told you above that I had this article about diesel fuel shortage and so here it is, from Bloomberg, Com, and you can find it here: The World Is Struggling to Make Enough Diesel – Bloomberg
Or, here’s your snippet: “While oil futures are rocketing — on Friday they were just below $95 a barrel in London — the rally pales in comparison with the surge in diesel. US prices jumped above $140 to the highest ever for this time of year on Thursday. Europe’s equivalent soared 60% since summer.

And it could get worse. Saudi Arabia and Russia have turned down the taps on production of crudes that are richer in diesel. On Sept. 5, both nations — leaders in the OPEC+ alliance — announced they would prolong those curbs through year-end, a period in which demand for the fuel usually picks up.
“We’re at risk of seeing continued tightness in the market, especially for distillates, coming into the winter months,” said Toril Bosoni, head of the oil market division at the International Energy Agency, referring to the category of fuel that includes diesel. “Refineries are struggling to keep up.”
The situation is challenging for a global refining fleet that’s been dogged by lackluster production for months. Searing Northern-Hemisphere heat this summer forced many plants to run at a slower pace than normal, leaving stockpiles stunted.

There’s also been pressure on them to make other products instead like jet fuel and gasoline, where demand has rebounded hard, according to Callum Bruce, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.”

Chuck again… Well, why is diesel fuel so important? It fuels the trucks that bring the goods to your city for distribution… And if their costs are going higher, guess what your costs to buy the goods are going?  I think you know… 
Market Prices 9/18/2023: American Style: A$ .6434, Kiwi .5905, C$ .7402, euro 1.0664, sterling 1.2388, Swiss $1.1154, European Style: rand 19.0586, krone 10.8425, SEK 11.2435, forint 360.20, zloty 4.3518, koruna 22.8948, RUB 96.55, yen 147.59, sing 1.3664, HKD 7.8202, INR 83.27, China 7.2959, peso 17.09, BRL 4.8647, BBDXY 1,253.80, Dollar Index 105.29, Oil $91.29, 10-year 4.35%, Silver $23.14, Platinum $931.00, Palladium $1,242.00, Copper $3.78, and Gold… $1,926.67
That’s it for today… A big week ahead for interest rate decisions, so we have that going for us! AS IF! Well, my beloved Cardinals kept from getting swept at home by the Phillies yesterday, pulling a win in the last game of the series… UGH! I’m still getting chills when I think of watching that Mizzou win on Saturday! This year seems be a changing of the guard, in college football, and that’s fine with me… #1 Georgia had difficulty winning at home against S. Carolina! Alabama had difficulty with S. Florida! Oh well, it’s time for my beloved Mizzou Tigers to rise up! The UAW strike starts its 5th day today… I have to question the leadership of the UAW, and their demands… It seems a little over the top to me, but then I’m always the one that thinks with logic…  Bob Marley and the Whalers, take us to the finish line today with their song: Get Up/ Stand Up…  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and will continue to Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

Waiting On The ECB…

September 14, 2023

* currencies & metals drift a bit on Wednesday… 

* Scarcity is the new word with regards to Oil… 

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! I get knocked down, but I get up again, nothings gonna keep me down! I’ve loved this song since the first time I ever heard it… It described me! And I love the term: Tub Thumpin’!  If that doesn’t make you think of a good time being had by all, then, well… I guess I’ll have to try harder to convince you!  My beloved Cardinals won again in Baltimore last night, this time by 1-0… a pitching duel… You can’t say “Pitcher’s duel” any longer, because by the 6th inning, the starter is out of the game! And that’s only if he’s pitching a good game that he’ll be allowed to go that far! Ahhh, for the days of Warren Spahn, and Jaun Marichial… The both were the starters that finished the game that ended in the 15th inning!  They don’t make pitchers like that any longer, folks… Shoot Bob Gibson won 251 games in his career, and had 255 complete games!  Now that’s a pitcher!   Steely Dan greets me this morning with their song: Aja… (one of my all time fave albums!) 
Well, the dollar drifted yesterday, starting the day up 2 index points from th overnight trading, it spent the rest of the day fending off sellers… Yes, the traders wanted to sell dollars, but, were hesitant about doing so, and so the dollar drifted throughout the day… The BBDXY ended up losing 2 index points on the day… The euro was being held back from gaining VS the dollar until traders see what the ECB is going to do this morning at their meeting.  Gold never found a bid all day, and the short paper traders kept the lid on the shiny metal. Gold lost $4.90 on the day to end the day at $1,908.90, and Silver lost 24-cents to end the day at $22.91… 
Even the drastically watered down, hedonically adjusted stupid CPI showed that consumer inflation rose in August from July on an annual basis, August CPI was 3.7%, VS July CPI 3.2%…   So… if the this stupid CPI report shows a gain in inflation, then real inflation was on the move to higher ground too… Shadowstats.com shows CPI at 12.5%, when calculated the way they did it in 1980, before all the hedonic adjustments were added…   Now, that news along should have sent Gold soaring higher, but when you have a governor on your speed, well, it’s difficult to get started, and that’s what happened to Gold yesterday… 
The price of Oil remained with an $88 handle yesterday, at one point in the day, it hit $90 briefly, but then backed off, probably from profit taking… I can’t stress enough the point I made earlier this week, about how the Saudi production cuts hadn’t been felt yet… The demand for Oil is soaring, (summer driving season), and the production is getting cut… That’s the recipe for a higher price for Oil folks… and that higher price of Oil will fuel, higher prices for all the things that Oil touches… like plastics, etc.   
And with inflation rising some mental giant decided to buy bonds… The 10-year lost 9 BPS of yield yesterday, and ended the day with a 4.22% yield… 
In the overnight markets last night… There was more drifting, but the overall direction for the dollar was downward, as the BBDXY has lost 1 index point from yesterday’s close, and starts today at 1,249… The stronger stupid CPI yesterday, has traders thinking that the Fed will remain hawkish… Hmmm, I wonder where they got that idea? Numskulls, they have to be led to the water, and then shown how to drink it!  So, that hawkish stance has really been a pain in the rear for Gold & Silver… Sure they should be rising because inflation is rising again, but they aren’t being allowed to rise at this point… Gold this morning is starting the day down $1, and Silver has given up 31-cents! Silver has really taken the brunt of this downward movement of these two metals… 
Here’s Ed Steer’s thoughts on Silver from his newsletter this morning that can be found here: www.edsteergoldsilver.com  “This is a ‘blood out of stone’ moment for silver because — as stated previously, there are limits to how many long positions that the Managed Money traders et al. are prepared to sell — and how many short contracts their prepared to put on. As Ted pointed out in his mid-week commentary for his paying subscribers yesterday, we’ve pretty much reached that point now.

Once there, the commercial traders can blow their brains out trying to engineer the silver price lower…but if the Managed Money traders et al. aren’t prepared to sell, then the bottom is in…because it’s their act of selling long positions or going short, that drives prices lower. If they ain’t going to do that no more, the collusive commercial traders have to give up — and they know it.”

Chuck again… I sure hope that this all happens while I’m still on earth… 
The price of Oil has bumped higher in the $89 handle this morning… Scarcity is the buzzword that’s being tossed about with regards to Oil… I’ll repeat myself here, but it’s good to see an asset trading on fundamentals…  The 10-year’s yield has increased overnight, and starts today with a 4.26% yield… Back and forth, back and forth… when will this end? 
The Big News this morning is the ECB meeting that’s taking place while I write… I doubt there’s been any announcement before I hit send this morning, so we’ll talk about it next Monday, God willing and the Creek don’t rise… on a side bar, The Creek references the Indians, not the stream…  So, that right there tells you how old that saying is!   I told you yesterday, that there are ECB members that were singing from different song sheets, regarding whether the ECB should hike rates are not…  To me, and to anyone that’s associated with Germany’s Bundesbank, the answer to that question is a layup… Yes, rates should go higher… But the ECB has the Club Med Countries that seem to fly by the seat of their pants, and I’m sure they are a big fat NO!  This is when we’ll see just how much influence and what kind of strong hold the Germans have on the ECB… 
Longtime reader, Bob, sent me this last night, and it opened my eye for sure! This is from the mises.org site: “The Federal Reserve has officially reported a loss of $57 billion for the first six months of 2023. Quite a number! So the “Federal Reserve Banks Combined Quarterly Financial Report as of June 30, 2023” (CQFR)—a little-known document—is especially notable for its red ink. We can anticipate an annual loss of over $100 billion for 2023 and for the losses to continue into 2024.”
Chuck again… it’s the same old story here… The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel bought tons of low yielding bonds for years, and those bad bonds are coming home to roost… and you know what a chicken coop looks like?  I’m just saying… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the PPI print (wholesale inflation that leads into consumer inflation) and the August Retail Sales, whcih I already told you earlier this week that the BHI indicates that this report will be disappointing… So, we’ll see who’s correct! But with all the Back-to-school sales in the books in July, August seemed to have fallen on its face… At least that’s the view from the BHI….   
Circling back to the top today, the stupid CPI was much stronger in August than July, and providing the proof that’s in the pudding that I’ve been saying and that is that inflation is sticky, and isn’t going away, until the Fed Heads decide to take interest rates above the rate of inflation… real inflation, not the trumped-up stupid CPI inflation! 
To recap… the dollar started the day yesterday having gained 2 index points overnight, but then drifted throughout the day on Wednesday… Gold couldn’t find a bid, and neither could Silver, and both booked losses on the day Wednesday… The stupid CPI printed and showed a gain month to month that hadn’t been seen in 14 months!  The spin doctors immediately pointed to the price of Oil as the main price gain, and tried to show that the rest of the components of the inflation basket were not as pricey… I don’t care what they try to do to spin this story, but food and energy are things that we as consumers use every day, and therefore I don’t see why you would take them out of the calculation for inflation…  I’m just saying… 
For What it’s Worth… I saw this article on Google search yesterday, and thought about how many times I’ve explained this problem that it probably made sense for you dear reader to hear it from somebody other than me, and who else could do that better than me? LOLA!  Goldman’s views on this can be found here: US Debt Risks ‘Slow-Motion Collision’ With Fight Against Inflation (businessinsider.com)
Or, here’s your snippet: “Efforts to bring down inflation could collide with high debt loads, a Goldman Sachs warned, highlighting the implications for US debt.

In a note published Monday, analysts looked at developed economies like the US, Japan, Europe and the UK, and noted that higher rates, which have risen to battle inflation, are already pressuring government budgets via increasing interest costs.
As central banks deploy anti-inflation tools, including the Fed’s quantitative tightening campaign, they limit the ability for inflation to erode debt, Goldman added.
“Ultimately this risks a slow-motion collision between inflation targeting and high debt loads, where a loose fiscal stance skews inflation risk and thus interest rates to the upside until a fiscal correction arrests the process,” analysts George Cole and Sara Grut wrote.
A combination of high inflation and deep deficits would also likely mean low investor demand for government bonds, and high foreign ownership of debt is another risk factor, Goldman pointed out.
“This suggests the US and UK are the most obvious candidates for a duration risk premium repricing,” the note said, referring to the compensation a bond trader requires for taking on the risk that rates will change during a security’s lifetime.
The note comes as the outlook for US debt is changing. Deficits are widening, and the federal government is set to overspend by $2 trillion in fiscal year 2023.

In one quarter alone, the Treasury Department issued $1 trillion in new T-bills. And with the Fed removed as a key buyer, the Treasury has had to attract money from other corners of the bond market, forcing it to lift rates.”

Chuck again… Well there you have it… someone other than me, crying wolf at the funding of our debt and the costs to do so… 
Market Prices 9/14/ 2023: American Style: A$ .6445, kiwi .5927, C$ .7395, euro 1.0735, sterling 1.2472, Swiss $ 1.1193, European Style: rand 18.9180, krone 10.7165, SEK 11.1302, forint 358.17, zloty 4.3154, koruna 22.7859, RUB 96.07, yen 147.33, sing 1.3604, HKD 7.8274, INR 83.04, China 7.2780, peso 17.13, BRL 4.9158, BBDXY 1,249.81, Dollar Index 104.73, Oil $89.67, 10-year 4.26%, Silver $22.62, Platinum $907.00, Palladium $1,262.00, Copper $3.87, and Gold… $1,907.87
That’s it for today… Well, no baseball for me tonight, I guess I’ll be stuck with Thursday Night Football..  We’re getting close to the beginning of fall, and I’ve always said that the Fall weather here in my neck of the woods, is the best season we have here, weather-wise… Chilly mornings give way to warm days, full of sunshine, and umbrella blue skies… The only problem with Autumn is that winter follows it, and I do NOT enjoy cold weather one iota! Well, the Big Bad Kansas State Wildcats come to Columbia Mo this Saturday, for a sold out game against my Mizzou Tigers… The Tigers will have their hands full with the Wildcats, and they’ll have to play error free football… Go Tigers, fight for Old Mizzou!  I’m so excited about next week’s game, which will have Mizzou playing in St. Louis, and I’ll be attending with my sons!  Let’s hope the Tigers are 3-0 when they take the field at the dome!  The Doobie Brothers take us to the finish line today with their song, and my fave Doobie Brothers song: South City Midnight Lady… (there’s some personal meaning in these lyrics)  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a Fantastico Friday tomorrow, and please with sugar on top, Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

Waiting On The STUPID CPI!

September 13, 2023

* currencies rally on Tuesday… 

* There seems to be a shortage of Oil in the Saudi reserves… 

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! My beloved Cardinals found a way to win last night in Baltimore, marking the 199th win of Adam Wainwright’s career…  The baseball Gods were smiling on him, as he wasn’t really fooling any one last night… I do believe that Adam will hang ’em up once he gains win # 200… Go out on top… Not that he’s a quitter, just that the Cardinals aren’t in the playoff hunt this year, so what’s the use of going on any further if you’re Adam Wainwright?  What a beautiful day, weather-wise, here yesterday!  I had a great lunch with my spring training buddies, Dewey and Rick! A good time was had by all! We’ve had some unbelievable weather here the last 2 weeks, and I’m loving it! Stevie Ray Vaughn and Double Trouble greet me this morning with their song: Pride And Joy… 

Well, the dollar pretty much drifted yesterday…. It was weaker, but only by a small margin… The BBDXY lost 3 index points from Tuesday’s close, but most of that loss was taken in the overnight markets… I read an article on Bloomberg.com about a hedge manager who says that the dollar is going to gain 5% in the coming weeks… He based his thought on the Fed / Cabal/ Cartel hiking rates a couple of times before we get to year-end…. Ahem… the Fed Heads would have to hike rates more than 300 basis points just to reach “real inflation” as calculated by John Williams at www.shadowstats.com  
I’d also like to place a bet with this guy, for a shiny quarter, that the dollar won’t gain 5% in the coming weeks… I just don’t see how that happens, but, if, if, if, it did, the dollar would finally be out of the red for the year… So, that’s going to have to take a lot for the dollar to get past its current negative -3.34% loss for the year… 
Gold started the day yesterday down $7 and never found a bid all day, ending the day down $9 to $1,913.80… Silver was able to find a bid, and a lot of them offset its early morning loss of 25-cents, and end the day flat as a pancake (Head East) and close at $23.15… A nice recovery for Silver on the day I must say! 
The price of Oil gained a buck, and ended the day trading with a $89 handle. The 10-year was flat on the day, and ended the day with a 4.29% yield… 
In the overnight markets last night… The dollar fought back again… This time the dollar gained 2 index points in the BBDXY to start the day at 1,251… The currencies seem to be held hostage by the Stupid CPI… Traders seem to be waiting to see what the report has to say about consumer inflation before making any strong move either way with the dollar/ currencies… Gold seems to be caught up in this too, as there’s been no real conviction to move higher in the recent trading sessions. Gold this moring is down $2 to start the day, while Silver has given up 29-cents to start the day… 
The price of Oil remained above $89 overnight, while the 10-year’s yield rose to 4.31%… No big shakes there, just a bip here, a bip there, and pretty soon, we’re talking about real yields! HA !   I told you the other day that there is a slew of inventory in bonds coming to the markets very soon… and that’s going to push yields higher, I do believe, because bond traders will have to make the bonds attractive to buy… 
I did come across this on Oil on zerhedge.com this morning: “Oil prices had been coiling for a few days ahead of this data and are breaking out now after OPEC reports that global oil markets face a supply shortfall of more than 3 million barrels a day next quarter – potentially the biggest deficit in more than a decade”  
Well, as far as I’m concerned here, it sure is nice to see an asset trade on fundamentals… That’s all…
Ok, while perusing the internet yesterday, I came across an article on Kitco.com where the writer said that he was: “developing a gloomy outlook for metals”…  And immediately, I clicked on it to read his thoughts, and it occurred to me while reading it that the short paper traders are achieving their goal…  You see, the main reason the short paper traders do what they do, is because the Gov’t can’t have something like Gold or Silver become more of an asset in investment portfolios and take away from the dollar… This goes back to 1972, when Henry Kissinger and the head of the Senate, met and talked about how they must deter Gold from achieving great heights… This was because, Richard Nixon had removed Gold from the backing of the dollar, and the dollar was on its own from that point on… 
So, the Gov’t needs to keep the lid on Gold, so you don’t want to hold it, and grow tired of all the engineered takedowns…  So, if this guy at Kitco.com says he’s developing a gloomy outlook for metals, then he’s grown tired of all the short paper trading antics, and is throwing in the towel…  And I say, Don’t Do It!  You need to be steadfast in your conviction that Gold is a store of wealth, and that no mater what the Gov’t wants, you’ll stay the course! Stick to the Man, per se… 
Here we go again with all the drama, and hand wringing and the “oh woe is me”  statements from the lawmakers…. Here’s the skinny from USA Today.com “The House is back Tuesday to what is expected to be a fierce fight over government spending. While government funding technically expires on Sept. 30, the House has just 11 working days to pass a short-term funding extension – called a continuing resolution – to buy lawmakers more time to hash out the details of a spending package. But a group of ultra-right lawmakers from the House Freedom Caucus have drawn hard lines even before the House comes back into session. The group is openly threatening to leverage a shutdown if a continuing resolution does not meet their demands, such as more security on the southern border. “
Didn’t we just go through all that B.S.?   Yes, Virginia there is a Santa Claus!  I don’t know what else to say about all this saber rattling, except to say, ignore it… It’s all a drama they want to play out so that they look like they are working hard for Americans, when in reality, they only do things to hurt us… I’m just saying… 
OK… well the Bank of Japan’s warning shot across the short traders’ bows has been getting a lot of playing time… Once again though, I’m going to point out that at this point, it’s all jawboning, which the BOJ has been known to spout about… After a few days, and the BOJ doesn’t follow through with a rate hike, and traders and investors will go back to selling the yen… Disappointment is the BOJ’s genes…  I’m just saying… 
Longtime readers know that I keep an eye on the Euro Wannabes… The moniker I put on the currencies of Poland, Hungary, and Czech Rep back in the day… I have to say that I am surprised at the volatility of the Hungarian forint… But in thinly traded currencies these huge shifts back and forth are easily accomplished, so I guess I’m not that surprised, just interested in them… 
The euro has been range trading in recent sessions, and here, traders are waiting on the European Central Bank (ECB) to see what their rate hike intentions might be… In recent days, we’ve had ECBers out talking and not singing from the same song sheet… One might say that interest rates need to go higher to combat inflation, while another one might say that rates have gone high enough… I don’t know if this back and forth is an orchestrated effort to confuse the markets, if it is, then it has worked! If The ECB was run by Germany’s Bundesbank, you could bet a shiny quarter that they would be hiking rates at their next meeting which will be… drum roll please… Tomorrow! So, we don’t have to wait long to find out! 
The U.S. Data Cupboard today, finally has something for us to see, unfortunately, it’ll be the stupid CPI for August… the stupid CPI is supposed to come in stronger than in July, as told to us by the so-called experts that were surveyed… I wouldn’t doubt it for a minute, given the rise in the price of Oil, and just knowing how sticky inflation can be… We’ll also see the Gov’t’s Budget report for August, and it’s not going to be pretty… I’m just pointing out… 
To recap… The dollar drifted yesterday in the U.S. session after losing 3 index points during the previous night’s session the dollar remained down 3 index points in the BBDXY the rest of the day. The BOJ is getting lots of air play on their warning that they could be hiking rates soon, but Chuck reminds us that this is nothing more than jawboning, to keep the yen from spiraling out of control… Chuck ago points out that the BOJ is known to disappoint the markets, so there’s that!  
For What It’s Worth… This article is from a fave economist of mine, and one that more people should follow what she has to say.. Stephanie Pomboy is her name, and in this article she talks about Corporations heading to bankruptcy, and it can be found here: Collapsing US Companies Could Be a Sign of Catastrophe to Come: Pomboy (businessinsider.com)
Or, here’s your snippet: “More US companies collapsed during the six months through June than any other half-year period since 2010 as historically high interest rates heaped pressure on American businesses, according to data published by S&P Global Market Intelligence. First-half bankruptcies outstripped even the same period of 2020 – when the pandemic wreaked havoc on the economy.

“It’s really something, listening to johnny-come-Latelys parroting my talking points on corporate bankruptcies (which none of them saw coming 6 MO’s ago). But they still fail to connect the dots. If they did, they’d be calling for a fiscal & monetary response that makes 2008-9 look like peanuts,” Pomboy wrote.

This is not the first time Pomboy has raised concerns of looming economic and market risks in 2023.

Last month, she warned that investors, while growing optimistic about the Federal Reserve eventually cutting interest rates, are still downplaying the fallout from the central bank’s aggressive policy tightening since early 2022.

“The markets don’t seem to be anticipating the pain before the pivot — they’re just anticipating the pivot,” she said in a recent Wealthion interview.”

Chuck again… I hear you Stephanie! Loud and Clear, but then you didn’t have to sell me on this thought, I’ve been banging the drum for Corporate problems for some time now! 
Market prices 9/13/2023: American Style: A$ .6401, kiwi .5899, C$ .7371, euro 1.0731, sterling 1.2472, Swiss $1.1191, European Style: rand 18.9331, krone 10.6888, SEK 11.1332, forint 358.05, zloty 4.3097, koruna 22.8222, RUB 96.37, yen 147.46, sing 1.3619, HKD 7.8247, INR 82.98, China 7.2923, peso 17.26, BRL 4.9571, BBDXY 1,251.95, Dollar Index 104.81, Oil $89.21, 10-year 4.31%, Silver $22.86, Platinum $901.00, Palladium $1,246.00, Copper $3.77, and Gold… $1,911.67
That’s it for today… Another beautiful day is on the docket for here again today, and the rest of this week! YAHOO! My Cardinals have one more game tonight in Baltimore before coming home to play the Big Bad Phillies, who stomped on the Cardinals pretty good when the team last visited them in Philly…  The Poor NY Jets… Their fans were so wound up and lathered up about having Aaron Rodgers as their quarterback this year… But on the 4th play from scrimmage Rodgers went down with a torn Achilles Tendon… OUCH! What a letdown for the team and the fans… not to leave out, Aaron Rodgers! I think of all those fantasy football geeks, that picked Rodgers #1… Too bad, so sad… I used to be one of those fantasy football geeks, and then I grew up and became an adult! HAHAHAHA!  Nah, i quit because I had become jaded on the game… It’s taken me about 4 years, but I still can’t watch the games like I used to… The band, Smith, takes us to the finish line today with their song: Baby It’s You… (Their version of the song, which I prefer) I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please… Please, Please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler