Author: admin

Oh Boy! It’s A Jackson Hole Week! NOT!

* currencies & metals get bought in the overnight markets

* The Rich Men North Of Richmond… 

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! What an awful weekend for my beloved Cardinals, who got swept at home by the Mets! UGH! This has really been a  year that will test the true Cardinals fan… We had been experiencing non-August-like weather here in the St. Louis area, until yesterday, when the temps reached 100 and real August weather returned…  I know some places in the U.S. have been really hot this summer, but not here, that is until this week… But I think I talked about this before, but when I was a young boy, I remember a week in August where the temps were over 100 every day for a week… Now… That’s real August heat! And why they call them the Dog Days of Summer… Yesterday, was my darling daugher Dawn’s Birthday… I remember when she was born, I walked out of the hospital in a haze, wondering what was I going to do with a girl? Well, according to her, I dressed her up as a boy, all the time! I doubt that I did that, but it doesn’t matter, because she grew up to be a beautiful young lady, that I was very proud of…  This summer it was 20 years that she has been married… Where did the time go?  Todd Rundgren greets me this morning with his great song: Hello, It’s me… 
Well, there was no data in the cupboard on Friday, so the currencies were on their own… That is they would have been on their own if not for the short paper traders…  Oh well, another day, another day of their interferences… The dollar gained 2 index points in the BBDXY on Friday, and ended the week at 1.241… There was not rhyme or reason that the dollar gained on Friday, but be that as it may, the currencies are not even close to the levels they were at the beginning of the month, when it looked as if the dollar was getting ready for ride on the slippery slope, long term… 
Gold, with all the interference in its trading that it could stand, found a way to carve out a 50-cent gain on Friday… It ended the week at $1,890.50… Gold has reached $1,907 during the day on Friday, until it was wiped out by short paper trades…  Silver saw the same interference and gained just 9=cents on Friday, to end the week at $22.86… Silver had reached $22.96 on Friday, before the interference came… 
The price of Oil gained $1 on Friday and ended the week trading with an $81 handle… Bonds actually saw some love on Friday, and the 10-year’s yield dropped from 4.28% to 4.25%…  In my eye, I see this as a temporary moment in the sell off of bonds… 
In the overnight markets last night…Well, we’ve seen this two overnight sessions in a row… And that is the dollar getting sold… It’s not a major selloff, just normal selling that took 2 index points away from the BBDXY Index. The euro has climbed back above 1.09 this morning… And just a week ago, I was giving the ruble its eulogy, only to see the body bounce!  There’s little on the data cupboard this week, until we get to the Opening remarks of the Jackson Hole boondoggle… So, we’ll just trade on fundamentals, eh?  AS IF!   We’ve not traded the currencies on fundamentals in a quite a few years no, I would think that there are a good number fo young traders that have never traded on fundamentals… Even the technical gurus have taken a back set to Trader Sentiment that drives this bus now… 
To start the day and the week, Gold is flat as a pancake (Head East), and Silver is up 4-cents… Let’s see where Trader Sentiment takes these two today and this week, eh ? 
The price of Oil has bumped higher by another buck overnight, and trades this morning with an $82, handle.. That brief dip below $80 last week, sure didn’t last long, now, did it?   That’s because demand is high, it is the summer driving season, and supplies are dwindling… So, any attempt to bring the price of Oil back will be met with strong resistance, at least that’s how I see it from my view in the cheap seats… 
Bonds have become a BIG story these days, and the story is all about the Tsunami of bonds that have been issued to finance our every rising debt, and have been met with tepid response… That means the yields need to go higher to attract investors… And higher they’ve gone… The 10-year trades with a 4.29% yield this morning… In the not to distant past, this bond’s yield was down to .5625%… That’s nearly 400 Basis Points of loss for those that bought the bond at that yield, and there were many banks, and institutions that “had to buy at that level”  I feel sorry for them… but not for too long! 
Well, this week will bring us news from the Jackson Hole, Wyoming Fed Boondoggle… This is an annual event, and in the past has brought us news of more Quantitative Easing, and additional rate cuts, and other things that if the markets were left alone to set rates, would mean nothing!   Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, will be the featured speaker at the boondoggle, and the markets will be on the edges of their collective seats, listening to every word he mutters… It’s all a  S*&^ show in my mind…   and I’m not afraid to say that either!
So, look for some wild swings in the markets sentiment this week, as different speakers will say things that move markets one way or the other… 
I know you don’t read this letter to listen to me rant and rant about this and that… But I heard this song last week, and thought, I’m no fan of country music, but this guy: Oliver Anthony really nailed the lyrics! here’s a brief snippet of his lyrics to the song: The Rich Men North of Richmond…
“Livin’ in the new world

With an old soul
These rich men north of Richmond
Lord knows they all just wanna have total control
Wanna know what you think, wanna know what you do
And they don’t think you know, but I know that you do
‘Cause your dollar ain’t shit and it’s taxed to no end

‘Cause of rich men north of Richmond”

And in a case of: What? They didn’t ask you, either?  Reuters reported that; “The United States has approved sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine from Denmark and the Netherlands as soon as pilot training is completed” Just another item of debt that we amassed that will go down in flames, trust me on that one… We just keep shoving money down the drain… 
And then we have the U.S. consumers spending their savings… When is this all going to come to a crash? This from Bloomberg.com: “Over the past two years, consumers have drawn down the more than $2 trillion in extra savings they accumulated during the pandemic in order to keep spending in the face of sky-high inflation.”
Chuck again… The report goes on to say that consumers’ savings are dwindling…  Uh-oh! 
in a head count of those Central Banks that are still hiking rates, is starting to show some wear and tear… The European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of England all seem to be on board for more rate hikes, while the Reserve banks of Australia and New Zealand have backed away from the rate hike window, for now that is, The Bank of Canada is so wishy washy, you never know what will come from that bunch of knuckleheads… The Russian Central Bank probably made a one and done 350 Basis Points rate hike last week, and the Bank of Brazil is still hiking rates at last check… The world is waiting for the Bank of Japan to get off their rear ends and do something, like get their interest rate structure out of negative territory… The world has been waiting for over 20 years now… And they’ll have to keep waiting in my opinion… The BOJ has a long history of disappointing the markets… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard is basically empty until we get to Thursday this week… There’s some housing data that won’t have any surprises in them to print today and tomorrow… On our Tub Thumpin’ Thursday this week, the Jackson Hole boondoggle will kick off, with Jerome Powell’s speach coming on Friday this week… 
Well, this was the news headline on MarketWatch last Thursday: Leading index for U.S. economy falls for the 16th month in a row — but still no recession. Leading economic indicator declines 0.4% in July… But did that shake the confidence of the short paper traders, who still continued to take their pound of flesh from Gold…
To recap… The dollar ended the week getting bought, but then got sold in the overnight markets last night… That marks two consecutive night sesssions where the dollar got sold… The U.S. builds it up, the overseas markets knock it down… The Big Event this week is the Jackson Hole Boondoggle… Chuck doesn’t think much of this boondoggle, but that doesn’t mean the markets won’t be sitting on the edges of their collective seats hanging on each and every word from Jerome Powell… UGH! 
For What It’s Worth… Well, I’ve been waiting patiently, yeah right, ask anyone that knows me , and they’ll tell you I’m not a patient person!   Ok, I’ve been waiting for this decision for some time… I’m talking about the decision to put the price manipulators in jail or not… This article can be found here; JPMorgan Spoofer Sentencings Delayed as Judge Reviews Mitigation (yahoo.com)
Or, here’s your snippet: “A federal judge delayed until next week the sentencing of two former JPMorgan Chase & Co. gold traders convicted last year of spoofing, fraud and attempted market manipulation, so he can review issues raised by defense lawyers hoping to keep their clients out of prison

Prosecutors had sought a sentence of five years behind bars for Michael Nowak, who ran JPMorgan’s precious-metals trading desk, and six years for Gregg Smith, the bank’s top gold trader.
But during a nearly three-hour hearing Thursday in Chicago federal court, attorneys argued over how to measure, in dollars, the harm to victims of deceptive trading by Nowak and Smith.
US District Judge Edmond Chang, who presided at their trial in August 2022, said he needed at least until next week to review the arguments and the law.
New sentencing dates weren’t set, but the judge said the soonest would be next Wednesday.

The JPMorgan case was part of a crackdown by federal prosecutors on illegal spoofing, where traders place bogus orders to move prices up or down and then quickly cancel them before they can be executed. Smith and Nowak used the technique to manipulate gold and silver prices from 2008 to 2016.”

Chuck Again… Ok, really jaded Chuck speaking now… Yeah the judge probably needed a week to entertain all the payoffs he might received if he doesn’t rule that these guys have to go to jail…  I’m just saying… 
Market prices 8/21/2023: American Style; A$ 6410, kiwi .5920, C$ .7396, euro 1.0906, sterling 1.2757, Swiss $1.1366, European Style: rand 18.9935, krone 10.5770, SEK 10.9278, forint 350.10, zloty 4.1075, koruna 22.0221, RUB 94.88, yen 145.87, sing 1.3567, HKD 7.8389, INR 83.11, China 7.2951, peso 17.04, BRL 4.9678, BBDXY 1,239.60, Dollar Index 103.23, Oil $82.19, 10-year 4.29%, Silver $22.90, Platinum $906.00, Palladium $1,256.00, Copper $3.70, and Gold… $1,889.30
That’s it for today… This will be a long, slow, hot week for yours truly… Well, my beloved Cardinals finally bit the bullet and brough up thier #1 prospect this past weekend… He hasn’t lit up the scoreboard with his bat yet, but he started out slow at AAA too, so give him some time… There’s a song that goes: You’ve got to take some time to let love grow….   To; Kevin, Duane, Rick, Mike & Mike, Denny, no cheating with Google, I’ll buy a beer for whoever can tell me who sang that song?   Our StL City team played last night and played well after a 3-week hiatus and won the game 6-3… I had to sell my tickets to the game, as I’m still not ready for prime time…  Besides the game didn’t start until 8:45 last night, and it was a “school Night”!  Los Bravos take us to the finish line today with their 60’s song: Black Is Black… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

The Selling Of Bonds Continues…

August 17, 2023

* currencies & metals get sold on Wednesday

* But rally in the overnight session… 

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! While I AM a bit better this week, I’m going to have to beg off celebrating a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, as I’m stil not ready for prime time!  But having said that… why wallow in the mud, and complain? I’ll just take my lumps and move on, as that’s what I’ve done for over 16 years now…  Speaking of the last 16 years, I had my 50th scan yesterday… This time without the contrasting dye, that caused my anaphylaxis shock last December… So, it was in-and-out in a NY minute yesterday morning… So I had that going for me, eh? MY beloved Cardinals couldn’t seal the deal of a sweep last night, and lost to the A’s, but winning 2 of 3, and now the pond scum come to St. Louis… I kind when I say that, as in the 80’s the Cardinals and Mets were in the same division and had a heated rivalry… So, I’m not being mean with that statement, it’s just a throwback to the 80’s…  Jackson  Browne greets me this morning with his song; Doctor My Eyes… 
The Fed Heads threw a Cat among the pigeons yesterday, when their meeting minutes printed, and stated that the Fed Hea saw significant inflation risk, that merits more hikes… Boy did that light up the day for dollar traders, who then went about marking up dollars, and seeing them bought like funnel cakes at a State Fair… The BBDXY gained 5 index point on the day, and the euro lost another cent, and now trades with a 1.08 handle… Yes, it wasn’t that long ago that the BBDXY was trading at 1,220, and the ruo was at 1.10 heading higher… And then it wasn’t…  
Gold took one to the chin yesterday, and got knocked out! Gold lost $10 on the day to close below $1,900, closing at $1,892… Silver lost 14-cents, so the damage there was not as strong… I love it when Ed Steers calls the short paper trading as “slicing the salami”… They take a little off the roll of salami… a little bit at a time, but they keep coming back and taking more… i already sent all those responsible for the slicing of the salami, to the woodshed earlier this week, so apparently, they didn’t learn anything from their trip there!  
The price of Oil has slipped again by $2 yesterday, and ended the day ttrading with a $79 handle… Inventories are low, but when the powers that be want to take down an asset, there’s no stopping them … And Bonds just keep getting sold folks… The 10-year’s yield ended yesterday at 4.28%… Like i said yesterday, you can’t say I didn’t warn you about this selloff, just based on all the new bonds coming to the market, and no one to buy them… 
In the overnight markets last night… some saneness has returned to traders as they sold dollars overnight. The BBDXY starts today down 3 index points from yesterday’s close.. The euro remains below $1,900, but just barely… The surprise currency rally this week has been the Russian ruble. After hiking rates 350 Basis Points earlier this week, the ruble has responded in a good way, and trades this morning with a 93 handle, after going over 100 late last week… Gold is up $7 in the early trading today, and Silver has added 38-cents… The question for the day is whether the salami slicers decide to take Gold’s gains and slice them up, or will they sit on the sidelines today, and watch Gold gain some ground?   Make your bets…  All ready? Then roll the dice!  
The price of Oil has steadied with an $80 handle this morning… And there was no movement in bonds overnight, so the 10-year is still trading with a 4.28% yield this morning… Where is the yield on the 10-year going to stop rising? I have a thought on that, that I’ll share with you next week… See, if I learned one thing in the show business it is to “leave the crowd wanting”…   HA!   
Well, some of you longtime readers will recall me making a big deal out of the start up of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, because they would not allow short paper trades… I thought, that this would allow Gold to reach its true price level without interference… But that didn’t happen… I often wonder why, but it is what it is… 

But now we have a situation where the Gold spot price in China is $40 higher than it is in London… Here’s Bloomberg.com with the report: “China’s gold price is rising against levels in London, a trend that local traders say is due to government curbs on imports of the precious metal.

The Shanghai spot price was more than $40 an ounce higher than that in London on Aug. 14, according to Bloomberg calculations based on exchange data. That’s the biggest premium in more than five months, with the gap steadily widening from late June even as consumer demand in China remained sluggish.

Authorities moving to limit gold imports appears to be a major driver behind the growing gap, according to traders and importers.”

 
Chuck again… I doubt this is the breakout that I expected years ago in China, but more of a short-term phenomenon… 
 
News from down under the other day, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left their Official Cash Rate at 5.5% Tuesday… They want to see the effects of their climb in interest rates have had on the economy, before undertaking any additional moves… Kiwi didn’t move on the news, which is a good sign…  As the recent downward move in kiwi had come from traders who speculated that the RBNZ would pivot at this meeting…  The question now, is whether these same traders double down, or leave with their collective tails between their legs?  
 
I can’t save this for the Data Cupboard roundup… The NY Empire Manufacturing Index printed for this month yesterday, and it came in at -19… That’s a negative 19! For those of you new to class… The Empire Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in New York state. A level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, and below indicates worsening conditions. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state… So, if any number below 0 is bad, then negative 19 is real bad!  I would think that this regional report will lead the rest of the regionals down the same path… I’m just saying… 
 
But the dollar shrugged off the Empire data, and went with the Fed’s Meeting Minutes, comment about the need for additional rate hikes… That’s just crazy folks… yes interest rates may be going higher, but from the raging economy? No, more like raging inflation… no matter what the stupid CPI says… We all know in our heart of hearts that inflation is running higher than what the stupid CPI says… 
 
Shadowstats.com has inflation running at 12% when compared to 1980’s formulas that were done before all the hedonic adjustments that are allowed now in computing inflation… So… do the math folks… we still have negative interest rates in the U.S. And… Treasuries are also paying negative yields…  So, put that in your pipe and smoke it Janet Yellen!  And dollar traders that keep buying the lie that the U.S. economy is strong and vibrant… 
 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday, had the July Retail Sales, and they, like the BHI indicated were strong… Thus showing that the U.S. consumer still has room on their credit cards to keep spending… I pulled this from CNBC.com: “July’s numbers were boosted by a 1.9% jump in spending at online retailers, while sporting goods and related stores increased 1.5% and food service and drinking places rose 1.4%.

On the downside, furniture sales slumped 1.8% and electronics and appliance stores reported a 1.3% drop.”

 
Chuck again… Well, here we go again… with traders taking the viewpoint that this report proves that the U.S. consumer will be able to withstand a recession… I say, balderdash!  We’ll just see how far all these conumers with less than $5,300 in savings comes out… I think it will be in tears… but we’ll just have to wait-n-see, eh? 
 
To recap… The dollar got bought hand over fist yesterday, after the FOMC Meeting Minutes from their last meeting where they hiked rates 25 Basis Points, said that they are seeing “significant inflation signs” and my merit more rate hikes… That got the dollar bugs are fired up… of course Chuck tells us that they really don’t have anything to be lathered up about, but don’t tell them when they’re on a roll that is over… It wasn’t over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor was it?   (ok that’s from Animal House , and its a shame that I have to explain that for in the past, I’ve had people write me and tell me how wrong I was that it was the Japanese that bombed Pearl Harbor!
 
For What It’s Worth… I’ve been to the cinema to watch 1 movie in the last 10 years, and that movie was: The Big Short… I loved the movie because it was about Michael Burry that shorted the housing market, and made out like a bandit when the housing market collapsed. I loved it because I was on top of that whole collapse, having warned of a Housing Bubble in 2003, 4 years before it collapsed. So, this article is about how Michael Burry is now shorting the stock market…  Warning signals are going off all over the world, on this news, so take it with as many grains of salt that you wish…  And it can be found here; Infamous “Big Short” Burry – Places $1.6b Bet US Market about to Tank | Ainslie Bullion

Or, here’s your snippet: “ Chances are, we’re all familiar with “The Big Short,” whether through the film or the book.

Similarly, most of us are likely familiar with Michael Burry, the finance genius who made a bold move by betting against the US housing market by persuading investment banks to provide him with credit default swaps linked to risky subprime mortgages.
Now, he’s back in the spotlight, this time targeting the US equity market.
According to recent documents filed with the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission), Burry has actively taken on put options involving two ETFs that mirror the performance of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. The combined value of these options adds up to an impressive $1.6 billion.
The question of whether Burry’s actions are a “BIG SHORT” or a “BIG HEDGE” is up for interpretation. However, the central theme remains the same: he’s placing a bet against the current state of the market.
Burry is known as a value investor, someone who excels at spotting overpriced stocks and sectors and then making short trades to capitalize on their decline.
Interestingly, Burry’s talent for short-selling actually precedes his well-known bet against the subprime market in the US.
As author Michael Lewis recounts in “The Big Short”:
“Back in 2001, while the S&P 500 dropped by 11.88%, Scion, under Burry’s guidance, surged by 55%. The following year, as the S&P 500 fell again, this time by 22.1%, Scion once more outperformed with a 16% increase. In 2003, despite the stock market’s recovery with a 28.69% rise, Burry still managed a remarkable 50% return. By the end of 2004, his assets under management had reached a hefty $600 million, and he was even forced to turn down additional investments.”
Then came his most impressive achievement – Burry’s calculated bet against the US housing market resulted in a personal profit of around $100 million and hefty returns of $700 million for his investors.
However, perfection wasn’t always on his side. While the exact timing of his short positions being exercised remains uncertain, he boldly announced in 2022 that he had taken substantial short positions in anticipation of an impending drop in earnings. As history has shown, that thesis has not quite panned out yet.
As disclosed in a 13F filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Burry acquired put options worth $890 million for SPDR S&P 500 ETF and $740 million for INVESCO QQQ ETF.
Twitter reacted with amazement, labeling this move a $1.6 billion short.
Irrespective of the specifics, Burry’s evident concern about the market is palpable, and his actions echo that sentiment. If his foresight proves accurate once again, we might find ourselves witnessing another debilitating economic crisis.”
Chuck again… While I’m no stock jockey, don’t play one on TV, or stayed at a Holiday Inn last night, I think it would behoove all to at least make sure your “stop losses” are up to date…  And that’s all I can say about stocks, otherwise, the gestapo will take me away in a paddy wagon… 
Market Prices 8/16, 2023: American Style: A$.6433, kiwi .5953, C$ .7405, euro 1.0895, sterling 1.2763, Swiss $1.1397, European Style: rand 19.0439, krone 10.5337, SEK 10.8969, forint 353.40, zloty 4.1053, koruna 22.0988, RUB 93.06, yen 145.83, sing 1.3579, HKD 7.8273, INR 83.15, China 7.2832, peso 17.07, BRL 4.9676, BBDXY 1,239.15, Dollar Index 103.25, Oil $80.10, 10-year 4.28%, Silver $22.82, Platinum $912.00, Palladium $1,237.00, Copper $3.72, and Gold… $1,899.97
That’s it for today, and this week of course!  My scan results didn’t show any new cancer, only the lesion that remains in my jaw… And that my sinuses are inflamed!  Well, the old man, Adam Wainwright take the hill tonight against the Mets… Maybe he can get out of the 1st inning tonight, without putting his team back a half dozen runs! I get it, he’s a longtime Cardinal and has been the ACE of staff for years… But father time caught up with him… I’ve been really tired lately, and needing to take an afternoon nap… Fatigue is an effect of chemo… And i’ve fought it for 16 years now…   The NFL pre-season games are under way, and fantasy leagues are drafting their teams. i used to play fantasy football, but then I went through that stage where I didn’t watch the NFL, they ticked me off and I turned them off… But now, I watch what games I think are worth watching… But still don’t want to play fantasty football!  Mark Knopfler and his band Dire Straits take us to the finish line today with his song: Sultans of Swing… Some real good guitar work in this song by Mark…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Fantastico Friday tomorrow, and won’t forget to Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

More Credit Rating Cuts In The Cards?

August 15, 2023

* Gold & Silver get their daily beating… 

* Russian Central Banks hikes rates 350 Basis Points! 

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals played to the level of their competition last night having to come from behind to beat the A’s… A win is a win, right?  Never mind the blown save, and the need to come from behind… UGH!  I’ve been having major problems with the new chemo, and now my oncologist has taken me off of it, while she tweaks the dosage… I have to go have blood drawn this aftenoon, so I need to drink plenty of water this morning!  And don’t forget, no Pfennig tomorrow, as I will be getting scanned…   Alice in Chains greets me this morning with their unplugged song: Down In A Hole… 
Well, the buying of the dollar in the overnight markets (Sunday to Monday) ended yesterday, in the U.S. session, there was no more dollar buying, nor was there any dollar selling, and the BBDXY ended the day at 1,237… The short paper traders just won’t let go of thier choke hold on Gold & Silver… Hulk Hogan would be proud…  Or for the old timers out there like me, Gene O’Connel would be proud…   Ahhh, Saturday nights, and “Wrestling At The Chase” aired in the St. Louis region… That was a very long time ago!  
Gold, as I just mentioned was subjected to the short paper trades once again, and lost another $6.30 yesterday, while Silver lost 7-cents… Gold closed at $1,907.80, and Silver closed at $22.69…  The price of Oil lost another buck during the day yesterday, and ended the day trading with an $81 handle… Bonds are seeing mucho selling these days, with all the issuance of new bonds coming down the pike, the 10-year’s yield had risen to 4.20% to end yesterday… 
The price manipulators, or short paper traders have become so brazen with their attacks on the metals… Take yesterday for example… Gold was down early in the day, but rallied back by noon, an was even on the day, and that’s when the boys in the band showed up at the COMEX with arms full of short paper traders… They don’t even need an excuse to bring the metals down an longer, they just go our and get it done! 
Yesterday, I talked about how the Russian ruble had dropped like a rock off a cliff, and had gone past 100 in price VS the dollar… Well, the prompting by the Foreign Ministry guy who called out “loose monetary policy” on the Russian Central Bank, may have hit a nerve, because the Russian Central Bank called an “emergency meeting” yesterday, where they hiked rate 350 Basis Points to 12%! The Central Bank pointed to how the weak ruble was allowing inflaiton to rise in the Russian, and therefore they needed to hike rates… Inflation is running about 7% in Russia, so their positive interest rate is 5%… And the ruble responded appropriately… 
In the overnight markets last night…  There was little to no movement in the dollar overnight… The BBDXY is still trading in the same clothes as yesterday at 1,237…. Gold is getting sold again this morning, and is down $5 as I write, with Silver down 29-cents… More of the same-o, same-o, for the metals… When is this going to stop? I know, I know the dog days of summer are never kind to metals, but this is preposterous!  
The price of Oil remains in the $81 handle, after reaching $86 briefly last week, Oil has slid downward, but still, to me looks like it will want to move to $90… I’m just saying…   And the 10-year’s yield, has risen some more overnight to trade at 4.22% this morning… It’s not like I didn’t warn you about this rise in yields… The debt issuance has been unreal, causing yields to rise to attact buyers for all the issuances… 
Well, did you hear about the latest U.S. Bank to fail? Probably not, because, the media has a hush-hush on bad news in the economy… OK, I made that up, but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if the media did have a hush-hush on bad news in the economy!  Seriously though, the latest bank of fail was the Heartland Tri-State Bank in Kansas… Remember when I told you that the end of the banking crisis was not nearly at an end?  This bank wasn’t on the list of Big Banks, but still it’s another one bites the dust… And the economy is moving along just fine, eh, Janet?  As if!
I really went all postal on the short traders and their scheme yesterday, eh? Well, they deserve it, every inch of it! And probably more!  I saw a line from a writer that quoted a hedge fund guy, who told him that the HUGE breakout for Gold & Silver is coming… Well… count me in on those that are waiting! 
Well, the folks, Russ & Pam Martens at www.wallstreetonparade.com had this to say yesterday, and I like the sound of it, here it is: “In the Federal Reserve’s most recent “Supervision and Regulation Report” on the big bank holding companies it “supervises,” the Fed continued its attempts to perpetuate the narrative that “The banking industry came into 2020 in a healthy financial position” and has simply unraveled as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. That narrative is built on the same flimsy house of cards that the New York Times and Andrew Ross-Sorkin built the narrative that the mega banks on Wall Street were not responsible for the 2008 financial collapse.

The Fed is desperate to promote this narrative to stop a new Congress next year from holding hearings on why the Fed, for the second time in 12 years, had to engage in trillions of dollars in Wall Street bank bailouts after reassuring Congress for years that the financial system was fine as the Fed loosened or rolled back reforms like the Volcker Rule. The Fed needs this narrative to prevail in order to cover up its own negligent supervision of the behemoth banks.

Depending on the composition of Congress next year, those hearings might bring about not only a restoration of the Glass-Steagall Act (which bans trading houses on Wall Street from combining with federally-insured, deposit-taking banks) but might also put an end to the Fed’s ability to negligently supervise the big banks with one hand, while bailing them out with the other hand, using money it creates out of thin air. (The Fed will report its latest balance sheet tally today at 4:30. It is expected to be close to $7 trillion from the $6.7 trillion it reported last week – which is $2.8 trillion more than it was exactly one year ago. The growth in the Fed’s balance sheet has come as a result of efforts to prop up Wall Street banks.)”

Chuck Again… wouldn’t that be nice if we could wake up, in the morning when the day is new, and find that Glass-Stegal has been reinstated, we could then party the whole day through! 
The Fed Heads have used that excuse of the Plandemic causing them problems for far too long… If you recall, in September of 2019, I was writing about all the repos the Fed Heads were doing for the Big Banks,  and pointed out that this can’t be a good thing going forward… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard has the July Retail Sales for us to see this morning… The BHI (Butler Household Index) indicates to me that July deliveries to our house were plenty, so that’s a good sign for Retail Sales, but then in July, we had the beginning of “Back To School” buying… And the lastest Consumer Credit (read debt) told us that credit card purchases were a plenty in July… So, it all comes together, eh? 
To recap… the dollar buying in the overnight session ended in the U.S. session yesterday, no dollar buying was done, and by the same token, no dollar selling went on either!   Gold & Silver got sold once again, by the short paper traders, And we have a big session in Congress coming up… 
For What It’s Worth… I mentioned Fitch and its credit rating downgrade and then I was just minding my own business and this article popped up about Fitch… And it’s about further rate cuts that could be coming from the ratings Agency and it can be found here; Fitch warns it may be forced to downgrade dozens of banks (cnbc.com)
Or, here’s your snippet:”A Fitch Ratings analyst warned that the U.S. banking industry has inched closer to another source of turbulence — the risk of sweeping rating downgrades on dozens of U.S. banks that could even include the likes of JPMorgan Chase

.
The ratings agency cut its assessment of the industry’s health in June, a move that analyst Chris Wolfe said went largely unnoticed because it didn’t trigger downgrades on banks.
But another one-notch downgrade of the industry’s score, to A+ from AA-, would force Fitch to reevaluate ratings on each of the more than 70 U.S. banks it covers, Wolfe told CNBC in an exclusive interview at the firm’s New York headquarters.
“If we were to move it to A+, then that would recalibrate all our financial measures and would probably translate into negative rating actions,” Wolfe said.
The credit rating firms relied upon by bond investors have roiled markets lately with their actions. Last week, Moody’s downgraded 10 small and midsized banks and warned that cuts could come for another 17 lenders, including larger institutions like Truist
 and U.S. Bank

. Earlier this month, Fitch downgraded the U.S. long-term credit rating because of political dysfunction and growing debt loads, a move that was derided by business leaders including JPMorgan CEO

Chuck again…. Well, you can certainly expect to hear more whining and crying from Janet Yellen about these credit rate cuts, because in her mind, one that looks through rose colored glasses, the U.S. economy, and banking system is just fine, and that these cuts are unwarranted… I think you all know what I think of Janet Yellen’s viewpoint, eh? 
Market Prices 8/15/2023: American Style: A$ .6474, kiwi .5971, C$ .7411, euro 1.0935. sterling 1.2707, Swiss $1.1402, European Style: rand 19.2033, krone 10.4789, SEK 10.8372, forint 354.48, zloty 4.1042, koruna 22.0647, RUB 98.77, yen 145.48, sing 1.3569, HKD 7.8257, INR 82.94, China 7.2865, peso 17.11, BRL 4.9635, BBDXY 1,237.92, Dollar Index 103.29, Oil $81.70, 10-year 4.22%, Silver $22.41, Platinum $893.00, Palladium $1,243.00, Copper $3.70, and Gold… $1,902.55
That’s it for today… well, this day August 15th will always be burned on my brain, for that was the day each year when we began summer football practice… Some years, we did 3-a-days and some 2-a-days… It was grueling, hot, and I loved every minute of it!  I’ve been stuck at home this week, as I’m afraid to go out in public with my stomach problems right now… UGH! Well, it’s not like you go many places anyway, Chuck! Ok, so I’m complaining, can you let me get away with that for once?  Ok, I’ve got a treat for my song to send us off today… The great Stan Getz, plays his 1964 hit of year, The Girl From Impanema… The girl that sang that song, died the other day… She was the wife of one of the musicians and was not a trained singer… There, a little trivia for you! I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!!
Chuck Butler

The Dog Days Of Summer Are Upon Us…

August 14, 2023

* currencies & metals get sold in the overnight markets

* Chuck unloads on the short paper trading scheme… 

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! A very rough weekend for me, as i battled with my stomach all weekend… I tried to get a life and go to my local watering hole on Friday, but only lasted about an hour, before the circus, rumbling and eruptions in my stomach had me heading back home… UGH!  I know that other cancer patients have a worse time with their chemo, so I won’t carry on like it’s the end of the world for me here, just pointing out, my difficulties dealing with my chemo…  My beloved Cardinals took 2 of 3 from the Tampa Bay Rays late last week, and then did their normal “play to the level of their competition” and got beat by the lowly K.C. Royals… Memo to Adam Wainright… “hang ’em up Adam”… it’s time…  Crosby, Stills & Nash greet me this morning with thier mega hit song; Suite: Judy Blue Eyes…  
Well, when I left you last Thursday, we were waiting on the Stupid CPI to print… I had made a point about how it appeared the markets had gotten a flyer on the print, because they were trading as if they knew what it was going to reveal… So, with no further ado, The Stupid CPI printed a +.2% gain for July, and YTD at 3.2%… So, here’s what I was talking about… The annualized inflation was 3.2%, and 3.3% was expected, so… the markets with all their geniuses, decided that inflation has softened, and they might lead the Fed Heads to not hike rates again…   These guys are just looking for excuses to run up stocks… 
I, of hardly ever Tweeting, Tweeted that I had made mention of the idea that a flyer was received by the markets, and then when the stupid CPI printed it made it clear to me that they had received one!  Now, don’t go getting all giddy about me tweeting, it’s the first one I’ve tweeted in a month of Sundays…  
So… On Thursday last week the dollar was soft… because of the stupid CPI…  Bonds got bought, because they thought that they were at yields that might not be seen again on the high side that is… Gold was a non-event on the day, and the price of Oil remained Steady Eddie in the $83 handle. 
On Friday, the markets got a shock when PPI (wholesale inflation) rose .3% in July… That put the thoughts of no more rate hikes on the back burner, because PPI feeds CPI, and therefore inflation isn’t dropping any time soon… And that means the Fed Heads’ promise of two more rate hikes, with one down, still have one to go… And that got the dollar bought on Friday, Gold again was a non-event (gained $1.30), bonds are confused, and the price of Oil remained trading with an $83 handle. 
So, what was thought on Thursday, was quickly dispelled on Friday… Stupid markets follow the stupid CPI, so they get what they deserve!   One other thought on the data front from Thursday… The Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 248,000 the previous week, from 227,000 the previous week to last week… I had mentioned the other day that I didn’t know when all the layoffs that have been announced by Corps were going to begin showing up in this data, and voila! There it is! More to come, I would suspect… 
In the overnight markets last night… Well, the dollar buying went on a buying spree, with the euro losing almost a full cent, and the BBDXY gaining over 3 index points… Gold is down $4 in the early trading today, and Silver is flat as a pancake (Head East)… The Petrol Currencies can’t even find some love from the price of Oil, as it has slipped by $2 in the overnight trading… and trades this morning with an $81 handle… And Bonds… Well, the Tsunami of bond issuance is still going on, and with it bond yields are getting marked higher to attract buyers… The 10-year’s yield is 4.18% This morning… 
We’re starting the week on a real sour note for the non-dollar assets, and the anti-dollar assets… I sure hope the rest of the week doesn’t play out like the first part of Monday has! 
I’m going to go up on my soap box now and rant about something… if you’re in no mood for one of my rants, then just skip ahead… OK.. everyone that wants to be here is here, right? Last chance saloon, to skip ahead… All right, I’m just fed up to my ears with all these manipulated markets… Price discovery?, true Bids and Offers? Those are things that no longer exist in the markets… Central Banks are to blame for a lot of this with all their QE, bond buying, and manipulating yields downward… The Regulators are to blame for a lot of this will their looking the other way, while short paper traders just keep shorting assets over and over again… And the Congress, not paying attention to the ball, is the other culprit here… Well, then why would they? If stocks are heading higher, and they’re all-in on stocks, why would they question how that happened?   And the sort paper traders? Those greedy bas%(^&#s… I had better move on or else my blood pressure will be shooting for the moon!
Well, the markets barely flinched when Fitch announced their credit rating downgrade for U.S. debt… But the main idea here as Fitch said in their communique that the structure damage to the U.S. has been very bad…   But when will that begin to show in how the dollar is traded? That’s the $ 64 quesion folks… It’s coming… you can feel it coming like you can feel the rain is coming in your bad knee… Patience… That’s all I can say about that…
The Russian ruble is going through hell and won’t be coming back for some time, as the ruble fell to 100 VS the dollar… The Russian Finance Minister said that a period of loose monetary policy has been the problem with the rubles performance… Now, those are fightin’ words pal… Because Evira Nabiullina is the Central Bank Gov. and a Central Bank Gov. that I have a lot of respect for… I think her hands are tied, because the country is at war, and it’s not loose monetary policy, bud!  
And the New Zealand dollar/ kiwi, fell below 60 in the overnight trading last night… I don’t get it, why beat on kiwi, when they have the highest interest rate of the industrialized world? Their Central Bank is top notch, and whatever the reason the traders have taken a chunck of flesh from kiwi, it’s wrong… I’m just saying… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard last week was a doozy, with all the stupid prints and market reaction to them… This week we’ll see Retail Sales, and Industrial Production… But first we start today with nothing on the docket for today, and then nothing again on Friday this week… The data schedule maker probably doubles as the baseball scheduler… I’m just saying… 
To recap… The dog days of summer are upon us, and that means the markets are tired and lazy… No impetus to go long one way or the other… Just short paper traders dominating and all the sheeple following their leads…. I shake my head in disbelief that this is all happening, to what was once clean, bid/ ask price discovery markets… Now it’s just dominated by paper traders… The dollar got bought late last week, and the currencies are looking for some safety somewhere, that isn’t being found… Same for Gold… And Silver… And Bonds…   
For What It’s Worth… This is HUGE folks, so pay attention here:   This article is about how bank balances are dwindling as depositors are leaving low paying accounts for money market accounts, and how that is going to hurt the small banks and it can be found here: Money-Market Fund Assets Hit New Record High; Banks’ Usage Of Emergency Fed Funds Jumps | ZeroHedge
Or, here’s your snippet: “

U.S. Money Market funds saw a fourth straight week of inflows ($14 billion this past week) to a new record high of $5.53 trillion…

Retail money-market funds saw inflows for the 16th straight week (and institutional funds also saw a 3rd straight week of inflows)…

The decoupling between money-market fund inflows and bank deposits continues…

Usage of The Fed’s emergency bank bailout facility rose by $1.2BN to a new record high at $107BN…

Finally, U.S. equity markets continue to diverge significantly from bank reserves at The Fed…

We leave you with one thought – in 7 months and counting, America’s ‘smaller’ banks will need to find that $100-billion plus from somewhere as that is when the BTFP bailout program ends (theoretically). Will regional bank balance sheets be stabilized by then…or will the current bloodbath in bonds be the catalyst for another round of pain?”

Chuck again… These are the things that happen when Banks don’t run their balance sheets correctly and look for pennies in profits…  And they don’t service their clients the way a bank should… I’m just saying… 

Market Prices 8/14/ 2023: American Style: A$.6487, kiwi .5962, C$ .7430, euro 1.0903, sterling 1.2645, Swiss $1.1350, European Style; rand 19.0650, krone 10.5012, SEK 10.8698, forint 351.40, zloty 4.0738, koruna 22.0750, RUB 102.12, yen 145.30, sing 1.3560, HKD 7.8187, INR 82.94, China 7.2527, peso 17.05, BRL 4.9311, BBDXY 1,237.96, Dollar Index 103.24, Oil $81.90, 10-year 4.18%, Silver $22.76, Platinum $909.00, Palladium $1,313.00, Copper $3.73, and Gold… $1,910.80

That’s it for today… Well, someone at the scheduling office for baseball should be fired… The Cardinals had an “off day” on a Sunday! That’s blasphemous!  Sundays are for BBQ’ing, swimming, family time, friends visit, and baseball!  UGH!  The dog days of summer are upon us… When I was a young man, I always thought that these days would never end, long hot summer days… And when I was a teenager and building in-ground swimming pools in Oklahoma, I thought those hot summer days would never end…  And now that I’m an old man, I wish they would last longer!  Because summer gives way to fall, and chillier weather, and then the cold weather comes, and I’ve long said that I gotta go where it’s warm!  Van, the man, Morrison take us to the finish line today with his mega hit song: Moondance… I was always a fan of Van Morrison’s music… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

Sidestepping Swift…

August 10, 2023

* Currencies & metals rally in the overnight markets

* Petrol Currencies perk up! 

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! I don’t feel much like Tub Thumpin’ today, so I’ll have to ask you all to step in for me… The end story here is that I’m not tolerating my new chemo… And the only way I can get myself to feel better each day, is to sleep the day away… Now, that’s not very productive is it? I tried to go to lunch yesterday, with good friend, Duane, but I barely touched my food, and barely made it home in time, to deal with my bad stomach. I aplogized to Dewey, and felt bad, that he had to not have a fun lunch…  I heard from a former colleague yesterday, one that I had worked with since she got out of college… It was great to hear from Jen McClain… Jet greets me this morning with their song: Are You Gonna Be My Girl?
Well, Monday, being Monday this week, with the dollar getting bought like funnel cakes at a State Fair, has been the outlier of the days so far this week… The dollar hasn’t been bought since Monday, but then it really hasn’t been sold too much either. Yesterday, the BBDXY was flat as a pancake (Head East), which meant the currencies were stuck in the mud. Gold however was NOT stuck in the mud, and lost more ground on the day, losing $11.60, to close at $1,914.40. Silver also lost ground yesterday, losing 11-cents to close at $22.74… I told you yesterday, that in past years, the summer months have not been kind to the metals… But I didn’t say that they’ve never been this unkind to the metals! And that’s why I’m convinced that the short paper traders are at work here… 
The price of Oil remained trading in the $84 handle all day yesterday… And the 10-year’s yield gained 1 bp… to yield at 4.01%… So, Wednesday for the currencies, Oil and bonds, was a borrrrrrriiiiinnnnggg day, while the metals continued to get sold. 
In the overnight markets last night…  The dollar got sold… This time it was more of a widespread selling of the dollar, with the BBDXY losing 3 index points. The euro has climbed back above 1.10, and the Petrol Currencies all have seen some gains, with the price of Oil moving higher. The Petrol Currencies include: the ruble, krone, real, peso, loonie, and others…  Did the overnight markes get a flyer on the Stupid CPI? Because it sure seems as though they did… Oh well, it is what it is… 
As I just said, the price of Oil has been moving higher, although last night it lost 50-cents… no biggie… And trades this morning with an $83 handle… Gold is up $7 in the early trading today, so maybe there is something to this flyer being released on the Stupid CPI… 
Bill Bonner had me in stiches yesterday, and I have a snippet of his letter that can be found at Bonner Private Research | Substack… here’s Bill: “This is ‘fiscal inflation.’ It helps delay a correction…for a while. But it gives us a Banana Republic deficit at 8% of GDP…national debt accumulating at $5 billion per day…rising bond yields…and an upcoming headache that is going to be one for the record books. All of this debt will eventually have to be rolled over at higher rates…and inflated away.” 
And to the question that was asked of why doesn’t Biden get credit for the economy? Bill said, “Why doesn’t he get credit? Why not give Harry Truman credit for the urban renewal program in Nagasaki after 1945? Why not give Chief Sitting Bull credit for reducing payroll costs in the 7th Cavalry?”
Chuck again…  All this debt, with plenty more to come, just keeps piling up, and will have to financed… And to finance our debt, we as a country, issue Treasury Bonds & Bills… Those bonds/ bills have a yield, or interest rate that HAS to be paid to the buyer of the bond… What have interest rates been doing for the last 1+ years? Going up at a very fast rate, right? So, new bonds being issued have the current higher rates that will have to be paid, and bonds that come due, will have to rolled over at a higher rate… You see where this all headed, right? And to me, that’s why the POTUS doesn’t get credit, for his $1.5 Trillion deficits each year, will only make matters worse for the U.S. And that’s all I have to say about that!
So, the question is… When will the Fed Heads realize that their war with inflation, is going to cause a war in this country? Civil Unrest, etc. …   When the free handouts that the Gov’t is so good at handing out, get cut, because the cost of servicing the bonds (paying interest) will take up most of the tax receipts, leaving nothing to pay for the free handouts… Uh-Oh!   
OK, let’s talk about something else Chuck, your jaded side is really showing this morning… 
Well, like it or don’t… The markets will be highly anticipating the print of the Stupid CPI this morning… These guys and gals in the markets all believe that the Stupid CPI holds the key to whether the Fed Heads continue to hike rates, or pivot and cut rates… I say balderdash! The Fed Heads barely give a nod to the Stupid CPI, instead using the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) as their preferred inflation rate calculator… But the markets, being the markets, will make a tempest in a teapot, regarding what the Stupid CPI was, so be prepared… 
Head Fed Head, Jerome Powell, told us all in clear English language a few months ago, that the Fed Heads had two more rate hikes to go, and they’ve used one of those so far… So, either he has to come clean with his tail between bis legs and admit he was wrong, or… he goes ahead and hikes again… What do you think he’ll do? 
So, this is off the beaten path for this letter, I just can’t let this go, without commenting about it… Did you hear about the shop owner in N. California that took policing into his own hands, and subdued a potential heist from a man carrying a gun?  Here zerohedge.com on their take: “Just when it appeared that a law-abiding business owner had scored a victory against a scumbag shoplifter for once by subduing him with an almighty thrashing, the police have stepped in to criminally investigate the shopkeeper for assault.”  
So, this whole wide world is going to pieces, and this myfriends, is one of the reasons why… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the aforementioned Stupid CPI… Along with the usual on a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday, the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims… I don’t know when all these announced layoffs are going to begin to show up here, or maybe they won’t, given the gov’t’s propensity to cook the books in their favor… 
To recap… Yesterday held no moves for currencies, Oil and bonds, but Gold & Silver got sold, once again… Chuck goes through the pain that will come from rising interest rates on bond servicing… Got Gold?   And in the overnight markets last night… The dollar got sold to the tune of 3 BBDXY index points, with the euro climbing back over 1.10… Gold is up $7 in the early trading today, something smells like yesterday’s fish to Chuck… 
For What It’s Worth… ok… This article is about the new mBridge system that is being built to allow instant trade notification and payment… Sort of like SWIFT, but… without the U.S.’s intervention… This snippet is long, but… worthy… here we go! 
Or, here’s your snippet: “In 2009, after the Global Financial Crisis, PBOC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said, “The world needs an international reserve currency that is disconnected from individual nations and able to remain stable in the long run, removing the inherent deficiencies caused by using credit-based national currencies.” He proposed Special Drawing Rights, SDRs, digital reserve currency valued against a basket of commodities and currencies. The SDRs have been trialed internationally since 2019 but a means of moving it around securely, quickly, and cheaply was lacking until..

Enter mBridge
Cross-border payments, which the US dollar dominates, will reach $250 trillion by 2027, up $100 trillion in a decade. There’s just no stopping it.
The trouble is that international payments are slow and costly, and Washington’s ‘long-arm’ jurisdiction over all dollar transactions has politicized trade.
So Basle’s Bank for International Settlements came up with mBridge.
mBridge, the BIS’ digital interbank payment system, lets Chinese companies pay UAE vendors in digital e-yuan. The mBridge blockchain instantly converts the yuan payment into dirham and and credits it to the vendor’s UAE bank account. mBridge 6-8 ms. execution time and 2.2¢ transaction cost bring Beijing’s goal of frictionless trade a giant step closer.
And best of all? No US regulators, banks, or dollars are involved.
Cause for concern
The PBOC (the world’s richest central bank), the HK Monetary Authority, Bank of Thailand and the UAE Central Bank have been using mBridge with traders in China, Hong Kong, Thailand and the UAE for over a year.
Now BIS says it will release mBridge globally by Xmas.

US Treasury officials worry that mBridge will help Beijing revolutionize wholesale cross-border digital payments, and that this is what will happen with all of China’s 143 trading partners:…”

Chuck again… The main thing here is that the mBridge system will facilitate SDR’s (remember Special Drawing Rights) who have been rumored to take over the reserve currency from the dollar, because it’s NOT an individual country’s currency…  
Market Prices 8/10/2023: American Style: A$.6575, kiwi .6082, C$ .7466, euro 1.1021, sterling 1.2769, Swiss $1.1456, European Style: rand 18.7682, krone 10.1361, SEK 10.6045, forint 349.60, zloty 4.0421, koruna 21.9813, RUB 97.14, yen 143.74, sing 1.3450, HKD 7.8162, INR 82.71, China 7.2088, peso 17.00, BRL 4.8829, BBDXY 1,227.22, Dollar Index 102.14, OIl $83.87, 10-year 3.97%, Silver $22.83, Platinum $902.00, Palladium $1,304.00, Copper $3.80, and Gold… $1,921.60
That’s it for today… A nice win last night by my beloved Cardinals down in Tampa Bay… It’s amazing what happens when you get batters hitting the ball, and defenders catching the ball, and pitchers throwing stikes!   Of course that’s been the recipe for winning ball teams for over 100 years, but sometimes I think the Cardinals forget about it… My wrist is still hurting like the dickens, I guess I’ll have to go and have it x-rayed… UGH!  Next Wednesday, there will be no Pfennig, as I’ll be at the hospital for scans early in the a.m.  I did get a little more sound sleep last night, thank goodness… With the house in ruins right now from the water damage, I came to the conclusion yesterday, that I’ll have to cancel the Annual Butler Family Labor Day BBQ and Pool Party… UGH!  Paul Young takes to the finish line today with his redo of the Hall & Oates song: Every Time You Go Away…  So… that’s it for this week, I’ll be glad to not wake up early the next 3 days… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a Fantastico Friday tomorrow, and will continue to Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

China’s Economy Slips To Deflationary…

August 9, 2023

* currencies & metals rally a bit on Tuesday

* Moody’s does Fitch one better! 

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you… My beloved Cardinals played on the East Coast time last night, which meant that I was able to watch the entire game without falling asleep during it! I chose not to sit outside last night to watch the game, and basically, I thought that if I was going to watch the game by myself, I might as well stay indoors… Long ago, in a galaxy far away, I went to my first spring training game at Al Lang Stadium in St. Pete, which is the same area as Tampa Bay… I fell in love with spring baseball, and Al Lang Stadium… A few years ago, I was speaking at a conference in St. Pete, and my hotel room looked out at Al Lang Stadium, pretty cool I thought… That was the conference when the great Mogambo Guru, came and picked me up and we went to lunch… I miss the Mogambo Guru tremendously… Uriah Heep greets me this morning with their song: Stealin’
Well, the dollar buying took a pause for the cuase yesterday, and the BBDXY lost 2 index points… Monday’s buying spree was a little too much, I would presume… The currencies didn’t gain very much, as the gains were wide spread, and not concentrated on an area, etc.  I had an awful night of sleep or better lack of sleep last night, and so at this point, I’m going to go back to sleep, for a little while, and when I awake, I’ll finish the letter… OK?  Well, then I’ll be back in a bit… 
OK, this is much better… thanks for your patience… I would like to say that yesterday’s data caused the dollar to slip, but I can’t…  The U.S. Trade Balance, (read deficit) wasn’t as bad as previous months, and it wasn’t because our exports were kicking tail and taking names later, it was because the U.S. consumer is running out of cash… but don’t tell Janet Yellen that, because she’s under the idea that the U.S. economy is strong… 
Gold started the day losing ground, and it continued throughout the day, with Gold loss at $11.40, While Silver’s loss was 32-cents to close at $ 22.85… I don’t know what to tell you about these daily attacks to the metals (even Copper is gett sold) If I were a jaded person, that knows that the short paper traders were responsible for these daily losses, I would say, Well, you know, in the past, the summer months are not kind to the metals, and this summer is no different…  There, now you have two thoughts on why metals are getting beaten around the head and shoulders daily, you can pick which one that suits you… I know which one I will choose, immediately, without meaningful consideration… 
The price of Oil, ran right back up to $82, after spending Monday getting sold, to $80… And the 10-year’s yield climbed back to 4.0%… Monday is all forgotten to these two assets… 
In the overnight markets last night, there was little to no movement once again…  In the past, I’m talking 10 years ago or so, there was rarely a night of trading that made a difference and was worthy of even talking about, But through the years things have changed…  The price of Oil did gain $ 2 more dollars overnight to trade this morning with an $84 handle! 
The BIG NEWS from yesterday came from China, who’s data rocked the markes all over the world… here’s Reuter’s account of the news: “China’s consumer sector fell into deflation and factory-gate prices extended declines in July. Anxiety is rising that China is entering an era of much slower economic growth akin to the period of Japan’s “lost decades”.
Whoa, there partner!… Who said anything about China entering a slower economic growth akin to Japan’s?  Well, I guess someone suggested it, and I for one think they are one loafer short of pair of shoes!  China has been at this economy thing far longer than anyone else, and I think they know how to keep from falling down the rabbit hole that Japan fell into in the 90’s, and hasn’t climbe out of yet… But that’s how I view it… 
The Consumer Credit (read debt) printed on Monday, and it contained some interesting tidbits… And here’s one of them, from zerohedge.com, “Americans increasingly turned to their credit cards to make ends meet heading into the summer, sending aggregate balances over $1 trillion for the first time ever, the New York Federal Reserve reported Tuesday.

Total credit card indebtedness rose by $45 billion in the April-through-June period, an increase of more than 4%. That took the total amount owed to $1.03 trillion, the highest gross value in Fed data going back to 2003.”
Like I said above about the Trade Deficit, the U.S. Consumer has run out of cash, and now are turning to credit cards… I don’t see this ending in anything but tears… 
In other news… telling Fitch, “anything you can do, I can do better, neener, neener, neener”… Moody’s Investors Service, took more sweeping actions in the U.S. banking sector.

Moody’s cut the ratings of 10 banks by one notch, placed six banks on review for potential downgrade, and changed its outlook to negative on 11 other banks.

Causing particular alarm on Wall Street was the fact that four of the six banks that Moody’s put on review for potential downgrade rank among the 15 largest banks in the United States.  I can’t wait to hear what Janet Yellen says about these downgrades… For sure she’ll deny their worthiness… What else can she say, she’s already gone down this road about how the U.S. economy is strong, she can’t retract now… She should, but she won’t!

 
The U.S. Data Cupboard today, still is not worthy, in fact, it’s empty today, no data scheduled… They propeller heads are gearing up for tomorrow’s Stupid CPI print… I wonder what lies the Gov’t will tell us this month?
 
To recap… the dollar buying ended on Tuesday and last night, but the turnaround to dollar selling was watered down, with the BBDXY losing just 2 index points. Gold & the other metals got sold once again yesterday, while the price of Oil rebounded.  Moody’s went whole hog on the banking sector, and downgraded a slew of banks… 
 
For What It’s Worth… This came to me from longtime reader, Bob, who is always sending me stuff to keep me informed of what’s going on… This is from Lew Rockwell, and it’s the 7 trends that a disaster is coming, and it can be found here: 7 Trends Which Indicate That Economic Disaster Is Approaching Very Rapidly – LewRockwell
Or, here’s your snippet: “#1 When economic activity slows down, less tax revenue comes in.  Right now, federal government and state government tax revenues are declining precipitously…

US state and local governments just experienced the worst decline in income tax revenues ever recorded.
This was the second steepest year-over-year percentage decline in history, with only the GFC having a worse outcome.
Note that Federal tax receipts are also dropped again, now at recessionary levels and approaching -10% on a YoY basis.
#2 When the economy slows down, trucking companies see less demand for their services.  So it is deeply alarming that truck freight volume and spending absolutely plummeted during the second quarter…
Truck freight volume and spending in the second quarter of 2023 declined by the highest levels since the early days of the pandemic, the latest U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index revealed. Spending by shippers dropped 10.9% compared to the second quarter of 2022 while shipment volume dropped 9%, according to a statement from the Minneapolis-based bank.
#3 Employment is supposed to be the “bright spot” for the economy, but the latest employment report shows that the U.S. actually lost 585,000 full-time jobs last month…
Well, one look at this month’s adjustment and it’s literally a shocker: you will not hear anyone from the Biden admin or associated economist cheerleaders mention this, but the BLS reported that in July the number of full-time jobs plunged by 585,000 to 134.274 million, the biggest monthly drop since record covid crash of 14.7 million jobs!

#4 U.S. employers have already announced more job cuts this year than they did in all of 2022, and the hits just keep on coming…”

Chuck again… And excellent viewpoint and one that I’m sure Janet Yellen would have a different view of.  I could only get you 4 of the points, to get the rest, click on the link above… 
Market Prices 8/9/2023: American Style: A$ .6535, kiwi .6058, C$ .7446, euro 1.0980, sterling 1.2738, Swiss $1.1407, European Style: rand 19.0092, krone 10.2237, SEK 10.6902, forint 353.39, zloty 4.0720, koruna 22.0971, RUB 97.54, yen 143.40, sing 1.3457, HKD 7.8207, INR 82.82, China 7.2071, peso 17.08, BRL 4.9036, BBDXY 1,230.69, Dollar Index 102.40, Oil $84.03, 10-year 4.0%, Silver $22.80, Platinum $896.00, Palladium $1,236.00, Copper $3.75, and Gold… $1.922.81
That’s it for today… Thanks for your patience this morning, those extra 2 hours of sleep really helped me get going this morning… Well, when Goldy and Arenado don’t hit consistently, the Cardinals lose… And they lost again last night, UGH! The rest of the season, is nothing more than an early audition for next year’s team… That’s what it comes down to, when you’re so far behind and trade away star players… The three amigos will ride again today… (inside thought) …  the pain in my wrist continues to keep me from doing a lot… It’s going to be a rainy day today, so get your Golashes out, and your slickers, and don’t forget the rain hat!  When I was a young boy, I loved it when it rained because then I could go out  and jump in the puddles!  I taught all three of my kids to do that! Jethro Tull takes us to the finish line today with his rock classic song: Aqualung…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

He’s Baaaaaccccckkkk!

August 7, 2023

* dollar rallies while Chuck was gone… 

* A tsunami of Treasuries hit the streets… 

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! I’m back! And full of you know what and vinegar! The U.S. saw a ratings drop, the Fed Heads did hike rates again, and we’re seeing a debt explosion… All those things and more in today’s Pfennig!  I had a very relaxing vacation, except for the news that our house back home, had a water pipe burst and flooded our house, with lots of damage and ruined things… We had a restoration team come in and do what they do, and now we wait for the insurance adjuster to come and view the damage. I can’t say that coming home the other night, wasn’t fun to come home to this mess… Faces greet me this morning with their song: Ooh La La 
Well, where to start? The dollar on Friday last week got sold, which was the first time in about 10 days… The BBDXY lost 4 index points on Friday, after the weaker than expected Jobs created number was printed by the BLS… There were 280,000 jobs added to the surveys by the BLS… And the total reported was 187,000… So, in reality, there was negative job growth in July… But then that’s just how I compute it, the markets tend to take the BLS’s stuffing of the voting box, as the gospel… 
The euro, which was trading near 1.12 when I left, has fallen back to 1.10… The BBDXY was down to 1,220, when I left, and on Friday it closed at 1,226, and that was after it lost 4 index points!  The chart on the dollar looks like the dollar fell off a cliff come January of this year, and then sloped back up on a bunny hill… 
The rest of the currencies have followed the Big Dog, euro’s lead, and gone up before the recent dollar rally, and then back down when the dollar rallied… I know that really didn’t need to be explained, but once my fat fingers started typing, it was all over but the shouting! 
Gold has traded alongside the currencies, as the dollar rally, that came out of left field, and in the face of a downgrade of U.S. Debt… Gold finally found a bid on Friday, but its gains were capped by the short paper traders… Silver fell in line with Gold’s trading pattern, as usual… 
The price of Oil has really rallied while I was gone… Oil traded with an $82 handle on Friday… that’s been quite some steady climb by Oil in the last two weeks. The Saudis and the Russians announced last week that they will support the production cuts until Sept… 
And the news from the U.S. on Debt issuance is just as I said it would be… A Tsunami of new Treasuries hitting the markets ,and not getting much activity… So, when that happens, the yield on the bonds has to go higher to attract buyers… The 10=year’s yield is 4.04%… 
In The overnight markets last night… The dollar buying returned, with the BBDXY gaining nearly 2 index points. The euro has slipped to a 1.09 handle, and even the Petrol Currencies haven’t been able to hold their gains with the rallying Oil price, the dollar’s hold on them is too strong right now. The Bank of England hiked rates last week, and this rate hike and the words from the BOE that more rate hikes might need to be made, hasn’t helped pound sterling… And when a rate hike doesn’t help a currency, well… that’s not a good thing… 
Gold is down $8 in the early trading today, so the beatdown of the shiny metal continues… All I can say about this beatdown is that it certainly has presented to you some cheaper buying opportunities!   The price of Oil held onto the $82 handle last night, and the 10-year’s yield bumped higher to 4.10% this morning.  It appears that we will start the week on a down note in the currencies and metals…  And I don’t see anything in the Data Cupboard this week that will turn things around… The only piece of data that is scheduled, that could move the markets is the Stupid CPI that will print on Thursday this week… 
Deficit spending is getting out of hand once again…Speaking of deficit spending… Did you know that: The US National debt is up $1.8 trillion since the debt ceiling “crisis.”
It took the US 209 years to add the first $1.8 trillion in debt.
we just did it in just 8 weeks after a “historic” debt ceiling deal.  
Isn’t that scary? Good friend, Dennis Miller wrote in his letter (www.milleronthemoney.com) last week that ” the Debt Clock shows us that by 2027, our national debt will be $43.3 Trillion… 
You know something that I’ve always told my dear readers is that a strong currency reduces inflation… Or that a weak currency invites inflation in the economy..  So, with those thoughts in mind, you have to believe that whether the economic data shows (stupid CPI) that inflation is falling, you can point to the strong dollar… Yes, the dollar has lost some ground recently, and if that continues, one would think that inflation falling is just a short-term phenomenon…   For those of you keeping score at home… The dollar gained over 30% during its bull run in 2022, and has lost about 15% do far this year… So, all-in-all, the dollar is still strong, just not “as strong”… 
The Big News while I was gone, was not the FOMC raising rates, as one would think, but instead it was the stripping of the AAA rating of U.S. Debt, by Fitch… Here’s the 1440 report on that: “Credit rating agency Fitch has lowered the United States’ perfect AAA rating by one level to an AA+, citing an expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, rising government debt, and concerns about what it calls an erosion of governance. The decision comes two months after Fitch placed the US on a negative watch as a result of delays in a debt-ceiling deal.

 Fitch is the second major agency to downgrade the US; the S&P Global in 2011 was the first to strip the nation of its AAA rating. The ratings are an independent assessment of a government’s creditworthiness and ability to pay its financial obligations. Read an overview of credit ratings here.

The US government’s repeated standoffs and last-minute resolutions on debt and fiscal issues are one of the reasons for Fitch’s decision. The agency also noted the nation’s debt, which has swelled to a record $32.6T due to a number of factors, including tax cuts and spending initiatives. Fitch predicts the US deficit will rise to 6.3% of gross domestic product in 2023 from 3.7% in 2022.”

Chuck again… And to think that Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, has some harsh words for Fitch… She actually said, “The U.S. economy is strong and not worthy of a credit downgrade”…   Oh brother! 
And there was something else that happened while I was gone worth mentioning… The saying on the trading desk was “When Chuck’s away, the currencies rally”… But this time, they didn’t rally… In fact the dollar bounced from the lows we saw before I left… This is one of those periods that prove a trend is not a One-Way Street, folks… Just wait… the dollar depreciation is still in the cards…
Well, while I was away, Ed Steer had this in his daily letter that I thought was very worthy of sharing with you: ““In the end, more than freedom, Athenians wanted security. They wanted a comfortable life, yet lost it all; security, comfort, and freedom. When they finally wanted, not to give to society, but for society to give to them; when the freedom they wished for most was freedom from responsibility; Athens ceased to be free and was never free again.” ~ Historian Edward Gibbon
You know, you can always check out what Ed is talking about (Gold & Silver and other metals) here: www.edsteergoldsilver.com 
There’s a good article here: The End of the Great Keynesian Experiment | Sprott Money News  that talks about the end of the Keynesian experiment, and where we are headed with our deficit and debt… I won’t get into that now, but I think it would behoove you to click on the link and read the article… The good folks at GATA sent that to me, while I was gone… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard last Friday, had the July Jobs Jamboree, and it was not a good one, as only 187,000 jobs were created in July, but… the hourly wages were up 4%… 
In addition, on Friday, the July ISM printed (manufacturing index), and it remained well below the 50 level, at 46.4%… Remember, any number below 50 equals contraction…. 
To recap… The dollar has been on the rally tracks since Chuck left, and the day he returned, the dollar got sold… the BBDXY lost 4 index points on Friday, after the trumped up jobs number still failed to meet expectations… The price of Oil is soaring… And Gold has followed the currencies moves…  The price of Oil is soaring and looks to be on firmly on the rally tracks. 
For What It’s Worth… Well, I came across this article while on vacation, and it talks about something that I mentioned above, so if you missed that go back and read it!  This article can be found here: Yields Surge After Treasury Boosts Auction Sizes More Than Expected, Sees Debt Issuance Tsunami On Deck | ZeroHedge
Or, here’s your snippet: “We gave a big picture preview of the debt flood (and fiscal crisis) that is coming to the U.S. this past Monday when, looking at the latest Treasury debt estimates, we showed that the U.S. predicted a near-record $1 trillion in debt sales in the current quarter (up from $$733BN forecast previously) and $852 billion in Oct-Dec quarter, numbers so staggering they are usually associated with economic crises…

But in this case a surge in debt issuance meant to sustain the illusion of the deficit-busting Bidenomics, which has managed to keep the U.S. economy from imploding only thanks to massive new debt and deficit spending, or what BofA’s Michael Hartnett called “The Era of Fiscal Excess”, something which Fitch finally realized last on Tuesday when it became only the second rating agency in history to downgrade the U.S. AAA rating.
And while the endgame here is the first ever $1+ trillion in U.S. interest payments which we expect will hit within the next two quarters…
This morning we got a more granular preview of how we get there, when the Treasury published its quarter refunding statement, in which the U.S. boosted the size of its quarterly sale of longer-term debt for the first time in over 2 1/2 years, testing buyers’ appetites amid an increase in government borrowing needs so alarming it helped spur Fitch Ratings to cut the U.S. sovereign rating from AAA (and judging by the surge in yields this morning, the appetite may be lacking).
While investment funds have been gobbling up paper – mostly to fund basis trades – the moment the basis trade blows up again, as it did in Sept 2019 and March 2020, the Fed will come running in to backstop everything.
Well, dear reader, the ‘print or die’ scenario is on full public display now. It’s only a matter of time before it shows up in the currency.”
Chuck again…  It’s a real shame that our so-called leaders have led us down this path of destruction, isn’t it? 
Market Prices 8/7/2023: American Style: A$.6568, kiwi .6101, C$.7474, euro 1.0980, sterling 1.2740, Swiss $1.1409, European Style: rand 18.6000, krone 10.1499, SEK 10.6243, forint 355.16, zloty 4.0223, koruna 22.0611, RUB 96.03, yen 142.26, sing 1.3410, HKD 7.8066, INR 82.74, China 7.1895, peso 17.09, BRL 4.8746, BBDXY 1,227.43, Dollar Index 102.26, Oil $82.04, 10-year 4.10%, Silver $23.43, Platinum $919.00, Palladium $1,263.00, Copper $3.83, and Gold… $1,936.15
That’s it for today… Quite wordy today, but then I’ve been gone for two weeks, so that was bound to happen! While I was gone, I made a quick trip to Boca Raton, where the Rule Symposium was being held, and sat in and listened to a longtime friend, Frank Trotter give his talk about his new bank: Battle Bank… I got to meet up with Frank and his marketing guru, Jason Coots for lunch… It was the first time I had attended a conference and not talked, presented, and not worn a suit!  My beloved Cardinals made some trades at the trade deadline, trading away the players that would be free agents at the end of the year, and getting prospects… It will be some time before we know if that plan worked…  A Flock of Seagulls take us to the finish line today with their song: A Space Age Love Song…  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

Gold Rises To A 4-week High…

July 18, 2023

* currencies and metals rally in the overnight markets

* China’s economy slows down, what’s next? 

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you!  I apologize for the tardiness of the letter yesterday… I had some technical problems that needed to get fixed before the letter could get sent out… Well, this is it for two weeks, you know… you can always go to the website: www.dailypfennig.com and read the archives… That is if you just need a hit of Chuck! I would laugh there, but this is serious stuff, folks!  My beloved Cardinals won their first of 3 against the Marlins last night, I had a full crew here to watch the game outside with me, but only Rick B. stayed till the end… I’m very tired this morning, and dragging the line, so this won’t be long… Eddy Money greets me this morning with his song: Baby Hold On…   I have a few Eddie Money songs on my iPod, as he was quite famous in the 80’s… 
The dollar was drifting along yesterday not a lot of buyers or sellers, until the end of the day, when the sellers out yelled the buyers and the BBDXY lost 1 index point.. No biggie, and a day that shouldn’t have brought about much buying and selling, didn’t… I have to apologize to you dear readers for telling you  that the this Wednesday was the FOMC  Day.. I was a week ahead! What a dolt! Oh well, the FOMC will meet next Wednesday, and nothing has changed toward the markets feeling that the Fed Heads have made their last rate hike…  The bonds tell us that the last rate hike has been made, the stock jockeys tell us that the last rate hike has been made, and the dollar bugs told us last week the last rate hike has been made…  You know I told you yesterday, that I learned early on in my career that when everyone is on one side of a trade, to take the other side… But, for once in my life, I’m not going to go out on a limb here… As I told you yesterday, I’m thinking that the Fed wont want to lose credibility and not follow thier so-called “skip” with another rate hike… So, like I said yesterday, we’ll have to wait-n-see… 
Gold ended the day basically flat, up 20-cents on the day, to close at $1,955.50, while Silver ended the day down 10-cents to close at $24.86… A day of non movement, after all the big moves last week, doesn’t surprise me in the least… But if rain drops were gum drops… I would have liked to see Gold continue to move forward, and I don’t think 20-cents is moving forward… Ted Butler (no relation that I’m aware of) issued a Red Alert, on Silver pointing out some events that are startling to someone that has followed Silver movements for decades… Silver will either break out to the upside, or move downward… I know, what help does that give us?  Well… you can either take a flyer on one side, or stay on the side lines on the other side… That’s what makes markets folks… buyers and sellers.. not short paper traders and thier price manipulations…  I’m just saying… 
In the overnight markets last night… Thg dollar got sold, but not huge amounts, the BBDXY has lost 1.5 index points overnight, and start this morning at 1,200…. The currencies are moving cautiously higher VS the dollar… I say cautiously because we all know, so they all know, that the PPT and their treasure trove of Exchange Stabilization Funds (ESF) are lurking in the dark alley, waiting for their opportunity to strike…  The old Dollar Index has fallen below 100 and stayed there, which is an indication that this dollar selling isn’t going to stop soon… Gold is up $8 in the early morning trading today, hitting a 4-week high… Gold has a couple of things going for it these days, and the key one is the weakness in the dollar. That, and the market’s mindset that rate hikes in the U.S. are over… Silver is up just a few pennies this morning… 
The price of Oil is trading with a $74 handle this morning, and the firmer price in Oil in recent times, has also helped the rally in Gold.. A stronger Oil price, means that inflation isn’t going anywhere soon… Speaking of inflation… The other day I saw a chart of the items that make up the inflation basket, and energy prices, were the big negative numbers to inflation… But that chart was taken when Oil was below $70…  So, in other words, as the price of Oil rises, so does inflation… I don’t believe the markets are taking this firming of the price of Oil into consideration, when they think that the rate hikes in the U.S. are over…  
Besides… the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel’s preferred inflation measure, which isn’t the Stupid CPI, but instead it’s the PCE, and it’s still 4.6%…  So, you can go all in on the markets’ call using the stupid CPI, or… you can be cautious with the PCE…  BTW PCE is short for Personal Consumption Expenditures…  Bonds continue to get bought, and the yield on the 10-year has dropped to 3.75%… 
One thing that’s weighing on the markets this week is the report over the weekend that China’s economy slowed almost to a snail’s pace in the 2nd QTR… Here’s Reuters: “China’s economy grew at a frail pace in the second quarter as demand weakened at home and abroad, raising pressure on policymakers to deliver more stimulus to shore up activity. GDP grew just 0.8% in April-June from the previous quarter, compared with a 2.2% expansion in the first quarter.”
 
Chuck again… Well, we had all heard that China’s optimism over their reopening their economy, had slowed, but by how much, and now we know… Consumer spending was really down in China, and that is a large piece of GDP, that has taken a huge downward step… 
 
China is need of a stimulus, unless they want to let things run out the way they will, in which case they’ll be in a major recession, of which if my opinion, if that’s what the economy calls for, then let it run, and you’ll wipe out the excesses of the boon, and get you ready for the next run up…   So, what will China decide?  There is a difference between China administering stimulus and The U.S. doing the same… One country does it from a position of strength in their balance sheet, and other country goes deeper into debt…  I’m just saying… 
 
Could we see the difference in Central Bank direction next week when the FOMC meets, and so does the ECB (European Central Bank)…  I know for sure, at least I’m pretty sure that the ECB will hike rates next week, and I’m somewhat sure that the FOMC will not hike rates… But then the FOMC has always has a penchant for disappointment, and with the markets all-in on their thought that the rate hikes are over, and rate hike would really upset their apple cart… And of course be disappointing to the markets… 
 
The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the BIG 3… Retail Sales (for June), Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization.. The Butler Household Index (BHI) indicates to me that Retail Sales will be meh…   Industrial Production has been negative in recent months, so it’ll be interesting to see if it can climb out of the red… 
 
To recap… The dollar drifted most of the day on Monday and at the end of the day saw some selling that didn’t amount to much, with the BBDXY losing 1 index point on the day…   Gold was flat , and everything else was pretty much unchanged on the day… Chuck was showing his doltness yesterday, talking about how the FOMC met this Wednesday, when it actually meets next Wednesday… The euro remains above 1.12, and has come a long way baby… in recent weeks… And Chuck talks about China’s economy… 
 
For What It’s Worth… This article talks about a Debt Explosion and how it could happen and how fast it could occur… And it can be found here: A CATASTROPHIC DEBT IMPLOSION CAN BE INCREDIBLY QUICK  – Matterhorn – GoldSwitzerland
Or, here’s your snippet: “So all the Western leaders got together for the NATO meeting in Vilnius, Lithuania last week to listen to Zelensky’s rantings about more money and more weapons in a war that Ukraine is unlikely to ever win. But since this is a proxy war for the real battle between the US and Russia, the West is grudgingly giving in to many of Zelensky’s demands, thus escalating the war to levels which could have catastrophic consequences for the world.

This war could at best lead to 100s of thousands of additional deaths. The Ukrainian people don’t want war, probably more than 10 million of them have left the country and won’t return. Neither the Russian, American or European people want war, only their leaders. When it comes to wars, leaders have ultimate power and also access to money. Although no country has funds available for this war, they all borrow and print to the detriment of the countries and their people.
At best this war will be limited but go on for years at a massive cost of lives and resources.  At worst we could have a global and nuclear war with disastrous repercussions.
Western leaders would serve their people much better if they instead sent peace makers and focused on their economies which are on the verge of a major implosion.
Coming back to debt, this is what will finally destroy the West and likely lead to decades of misery.
The latest financial crisis started in September 2019 when the US banking system came under serious pressure and the Fed injected major liquidity into the near bankrupt system. Since that time, total US debt has increased by $21 trillion.

Let’s put this into perspective. It took the US 221 years to go from Zero debt in 1776 to $21 trillion in 1997 and just in the last 4 years, debt has gone up by that same $21 trillion. “

Chuck again.. A very long article of which I only have a piece of for you here… If you have the time, please click the link above and read the whole article that even talks about Dante’s 9 circles of hell… 
Market Prices 7/18/2023: American Style: A$.6802, kiwi .6282, C$ .7542, euro 1.1254, sterling 1.3107, Swiss $1.1659, European Style: rand 17.9328, krone 10.0715, SEK 10.2076, forint 332.32, zloty 3.9525, 
koruna 21.1818, RUB 90.74, yen 138.26, sing 1.3213, HKD 7.8192, INR 82.05, China 7.1792, peso 16.73, BRL 4.8073, BBDXY 1200.57, Dollar Index 99.74, Oil $74.41, 10-year 3.75%, Silver $24.90, Platinum $980.00, Palladium $1,300.00, Copper $3.81, and Gold… $1,963.17
That’s it for today… For this week, and for the next two weeks… Some timely hitting won the game for my beloved Cardinals last night. Something they had been lacking all season long, and would behoove them to retain that edge to finish out the season.. I can’t believe that I got so far ahead of myself yesterday, with the date of the next FOMC…  Sorry again, about that!   If I could read Pfennig Replies, I would expect that many of you pointed out that error on my part…  Man was I decadent last night with regards to what I ate… But every now and then it does me some good to eat like that again!  Now, I’m heading to S. Florida again, where I’ll be eating seafood all the time! But every now and then, I’ll opt for a cheeseburger!  Elvis Presley   takes us to the finish line today with his song: One Night With You… Whenever I hear an Elvis song, it reminds me of my late good friend, and almost brother, Frank Weiler, who loved Elvis and had every album he ever made… I hop you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday, and great time while I’m gone… And please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

Fund Managers Say, Sell Dollars!

July 17, 2023

* Currencies & metals rally into the weekend…

* Debts soar after the debt escalator agreement! 

Good Day… and a Marvelous Monday to you! What a great game Saturday night at City Park! My oldest son, Andrew, and I thouroughly enjoyed a 3-0 Stl. City SC win! We arrived at the stadium just in time to get under cover for the rain storm that came though and delayed the start of the game by 30 minutes. And we got out of Downtown quickly after the game, as Andrew listened to my directions, as opposed to my wife who didn’t!  The game was a sellout, as usual for City Park, and the crowd was all keyed up and ready to cheer their team on to victory! My beloved Cardinals won 2 of 3 from the Nationals, and had to dodge the raindrops from the storms that would pop up all weekend.  Bruce Channel greets me this morning with his song: Hey Baby!  You know the song, but probably didn’t know who sang it!   
Well, when I left you on Thursday morning, the dollar was getting sold, and that continued throughout the day, with the BBDXY losing 8 index points, and the index closing at 1,200…  The euro was soaring with all this dollar weakness, and the single unit climbed over 1.12!  All the currencies looked healthier, after Thursday’s dust had settled, and we headed to Friday…  Gold was up on Thursday and closed the day at $1,960.60, while Silver added 76-cents and closed at $24.84…  And the end of Thursday, it did appear to be a new trend setting into place for the dollar, and that would be long awaited for from my point of view… Well, the dollar sure is falling fast folks… Since hitting 1,235 in the BBDXY on July 6, the dollar has gone on a trip on the slipery slope and has fallen to 1200 on Thursday. I believe I saw someone post that the dollar has lost 16% this year so far… But the bulk of that loss came this week! 
Friday, brought about some profit taking in the currencies and metals, with the BBDXY gaining 2 index points, and Gold losing $5.70, on the day to close at $1,955.50…  Silver gained 2-cents on the day to close at $24.86… The euro remained above 1.12, and the small dose of dollar buying didn’t really ruin the currencies gains on the week.  If, we are going to begin a new long term weak trend for the dollar, you have to remember that it’s not a One-Way Street, there will be days when the dollar gains, but as long as they are capped and don’t become multiple days of rallies, the weak trend will continue…  I say If… but I truly believe, even after all of the false dawns we’ve experienced in the past few years, that THIS Time is the real McCoy… With the dollar gaining all through the period when the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel was hiking rates, the time has come for those rate hikes to end (according to the markets) and with that will bring dollar weakness… 
But you don’t have to take just my word for that… Here’s the Market Insider (www.marketinsidercom) “The dollar is on the verge of a breakdown as other global currencies start to rise.”
In the overnight markets last night…. the dollar started out getting bought, but then the tide turned on the green/peachback, and we start the day with the same level in the BBDXY (1,202) as we left it on Friday. The old Dollar Index has fallen below 100 for the first time in I don’t know know how long…  The euro is firmly into the 1.12 level, and all the currencies, including Japanese yen, are perking up nicely. The Petrol Currencies, are seeing the most love, and that includes the ruble, krone, loonie, real, and the Mexican peso, which is reaching multiple decade highs VS the dollar… Gold is up $2 to start the day, and Silver is down 2-cents this morning. I have some thoughts on Gold later today, so stay turned to this station, do not turn the dial!   
The price of Oil has slipped on some supply reports across the Globe, and it trades with a $74 handle this morning, while the 10-year continues to get bought, from traders, managers, and investors that truly believe that the Fed Heads are finished hiking rates… I learned something at an early age in the markets, and that is, when everyone is on one side of a trade, to take the other side, for something is going to upset their applecart. 
You won’t believe the numbers that are tossed around in the FWIW section today… So, get your pencil sharpened to write down some of these numbers, because there’ll come a day when it al come crashing down, and you’ll be able to point to these numbers, and say, “this is why I own Gold.”
I mentioned the euro above, and talked about how it was really on a run because of the dollar weakness… But that isn’t completely the reason the euro is rallying… There was news last week from Reuters that; “The euro zone almost eliminated its trade deficit in May, non-adjusted data showed on Friday, as exports of chemicals and machinery picked up and the value of imported energy products, notably from Russia, declined.”
That would be a big feather in their caps…  and good for the euro…  I’m just saying…
OK… onto something else… I read an article on the www.blacklistednews.com site over the weekend, that had me steaming, and ready to throw things, and ended up yelling at the wall!  Here’s brief snippet of the article’s gist: “French President Emmanuel Macron told delegates at the Paris summit that “the world needs a public finance shock” to fight global warming while also creating “equity” for less wealthy nations. He also argued that the current system was not well suited to address the world’s challenges.”
Why would that bother me? Because in reality, a global financial collapse is the elite’s goal, and now they are coming out from behind the curtains and admitting it… Where’s James Bond when we need him to eliminate this threat to the world?   
The good folks at GATA sent me this note the other day: “Prompted by the confiscation of Russian assets by the United States and its Western European allies, governments, central banks, and even mainstream news organizations are acknowledging what they should have known all along: that the more you use another nation’s currency, the more subservient to that nation you become.

Hence the various recent moves away from the U.S. dollar and the money-transfer systems controlled by the U.S. government, and, perhaps most dramatic, the idea of the BRICS nations to create a currency of their own for international trade, a currency that would be “backed by gold,” the monetary metal already abundantly held as financial reserves or produced by some of the BRICs countries.
Such a currency is expected to be on the agenda of the BRICS conference next month in South Africa,
Yes, the BRICS nations will meet on August 22nd and it could be the date that takes Gold away from the price manipulators and hands it back to buyers and sellers of actual Gold… It comes to mind that on August 15, 1971, President Richard Nixon removed the Gold backing from the dollar, saying then that it was merely a “Temporary move”…   Funny, right, that he had a different meaning for the word “Temporary” than we do… 
Well, this Wednesday we will have a FOMC DAY! This will be the day that either the Fed Heads decide to forgo any new rate hikes, to let everyone know that they really did mean “skip” at their last meeting 6 weeks ago. Or, will they slap each other on the back and say “Job well done, we defeated inflation with a soft landing” ?  Until I thought about the idea that the Fed Heads needed to save face and hike this month, so that the markets will not question them again, I thought the Fed Heads would opt for what’s behind door #2…  So, now I guess, we’ll have to wait-n-see… But I won’t be here to decipher what the Fed Heads did or said, so maybe, I’ll tweet it out! Nah… I’m going to be on vacation, and on Wednesday, I’ll be in Boca Raton, at the Rule Symposium… Just visiting some former colleagues, and some investors that might recall me… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard this week is dominated by the FOMC meeting on Wednesday… Before we get there though, the Data Cupboard is fairly empty… Tomorrow, we’ll see the color of the May S&P- Case/ Shiller Home Price Index, and since the Fed Heads were still hiking rates in May, I’m going to say that house prices will continue to drop… 
To recap… Thursday last week was a day that the dollar bugs would like to forget…  The dollar selling was strong, and voluminous… Friday saw some profit taking, and the dollar gained a tiny bit to stop the bleeding… Chuck points out that the dollar has lost a ton of ground since 7/4/2023…. He talks about the BRICS meeting on August 22nd… and where he’ll be that day… obviously not paying any attention to the knuckleheads at the FMOC… 
For What It’s Worth… I came across this article on Saturday… that’s right, I do research all the time! And it’s about the U.S. finances, and how interest debt (from bonds) is creeping higher and higher, and soon will surpass $1 Trillion… Hey, Dick Cheney, put that in your pipe and smoke it! Mr. Deficits don’t matter… Any way, you can find the article here: Endgame: US Federal Debt Interest Payments About To Hit $1 Trillion | ZeroHedge
Or, here’s your snippet: ” There was a shocking number in today’s latest monthly US Budget Deficit report. No, it wasn’t that US government outlays unexpectedly soared 15% to $646 billion in June, up almost $100 billion from a year ago…

… while tax receipts slumped 9.2% from $461 billion to $418 billion, resulting in a TTM government receipt drop of over 7.3%, the biggest since June 2020 when the US was reeling from the covid lockdown recession; in fact never have before tax receipts suffered such a big drop without the US entering a recession.
Needless to say, surging government outlays coupled with shrinking tax revenues meant that in June, the US budget deficit nearly tripled from $89 billion a year ago to $228 billion, far greater than the consensus estimate of $175 billion. One can only imagine which Ukrainian billionaire oligarch’s money laundering bank account is currently enjoying the benefits of that unexpected incremental $50 billion US deficit hole: we know for a fact that the FBI will never get to the bottom of that one, since they can’t even figure out who dumped a bunch of blow inside the White House – the most protected and surveilled structure in the entire world.
And with the monthly deficits coming in higher than expected and also far higher than a year ago, it is also not at all surprising that the cumulative deficit 9 months into the fiscal year is already the 3rd highest on record, surpassed only by the crisis years of 2020 and 2021: at $1.393 trillion, the fiscal 2022 YTD deficit is already up 170% compared to the same period last year.
Again, while sad, none of the above numbers are surprising: they merely confirm that the US is on an ever faster-track to fiscal death, but not before the Fed is forced to monetize the debt once again (one wonders what financial crisis the Jekyll Island folks will invoke this time to greenlight the next multi-trillion QE).
No, the one number that was truly shocking was found all the way on page 9, deep inside Table 3 of the latest Treasury Monthly Statement: the only highlighted below, and which shows that in the 9 months of the current fiscal year, the US has already accumulated a record $652 billion in gross debt interest.
This number was more than 25% higher compared to the Interest Expense payment for the comparable period a year ago, which amounted to $521 billion.
Soaring interest rates, driven by the panicked Fed’s scramble to undo its epic policy failure of 2020 and 2021 when the Fed kept rates at zero for far too long while injecting trillions into various asset bubbles, have been the key driver of the deficit, with the Federal Reserve boosting its benchmark rate by 5% since it began hiking in March last year. Five-year Treasury yields are now about 3.96%, versus 1.35% at the start of last year. As lower-yielding securities mature, the Treasury faces steady increases in the rates it pays on outstanding debt: that’s right – even when the Fed starts cutting rates, due to the delay of rolling over maturing debt, actual interest payments will keep rising for the foreseeable future.”
Chuck again…  Yes, our financial future is scary folks… Remember when the U.S. Debt was $7 Trillion, and I would talk about how the deficit spending was going to be our ruins?   That was $25 Trillion ago!  Another case of when something is Evident, but not imminent! 
Market Prices 7/17/2023: American Style: A$.6819, kiwi 6340, C$ .7564, euro 1.1235, sterling 1.3079, Swiss $1.1638, European Style: rand 18.0393, krone 10.0298, SEK 10.2336, forint 331.93, zloty 3.9604, koruna 21.1452, RUB 90.23, yen 138.29, sing 1.3212, HKD 7.8138, INR 82.05, China 7.1656, peso 16.79, BRL 4.7916, BBDXY 1,202.55, Dollar Index 99.87, OIl $74.87, 10-year 3.78%, Silver $24.82, Platinum $974.00, Palladium $1,269.00, Copper $3.88, and Gold… $1,957.46

That’s it for today… So, Saturday night was a grand night for both the Cardinals and the City teams…  A little rain delay never hurt anyone! I got my car all inspected and ready for new tags that I applied for online… The tags should come while I’m away… I drive a 12-year old car… but it only has 78,000 miles on it!  It’s in fine shape, looks good, and will last me probably until I’m ready to stop driving! We tried a new place for our usual Friday afternoon happy hour last Friday… I’m voting that we don’t return!  Well, one more day, and then I’m on vacation! So, what will I have in store for you tomorrow?  Ha! As if!  It’ll be a normal Pfennig… no worries… The Climax Blues Band take us to the finish line today with their song: Couldn’t Get It Right…   I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck

CPI Throws A Cat Among The Pigeons….

July 13, 2023

*The rout on the dollar was widespread…

* Fund Managers think the dollar has peaked… 

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, we had some major wind, and Thunderstorms move through last evening, and the blew out the power… The power was out for about an hour or so, and being all by myself, I had to look for candles to light… I found a couple and that’s all I needed.  I also found out that my cell phone doesn’t get good reception in the basement, when on 5G…  I had to keep opening the slider door, and stick my phone outside to get messages to send… Ahh, those 3rd world problems plague me again!  Tsk, tsk… that’s not even something to joke about Chuck, and you should know better!  No baseball last night, ugh! The Men’s National Soccer Team played and the game went to penalty kicks once again… And this time the men’s team ran out of luck, and lost… And the Stl. City SC team played in Los Angeles last night, so the game started at my bedtime!  But, they too, lost last night, so not a good night for soccer teams that I follow… I’m dragging the line today, so I need something to give me a jolt! And Humble Pie will do that trick, as my iPod plays Humble Pie’s song: I Don’t Need No Doctor…  That ought to do the trick! 
Well, I told you yesterday that we would see some movement in the asset classes after the Stupid CPI printed and that’s exactly what we saw… The dollar got sold like it was a pet rock in the 70’s… The BBDXY lost 12 points on the calendar day of Wednesday… I said the other day that I hadn’t recalled the last time I saw the dollar lose 8 index points when it did that last Friday… So, this 12 – index point loss yesterday was a new record for me… The euro rose through the 1.10 handle and ended the day at 1.1142… WOW !   And Gold? Gold gained $25 yesterday, and was up even more, before the short paper traders decided to trip some off the top… Silver gained 96-cents, and was trimmed up at the end of the day too… 
So, what caused all these gyrations in the assets? The Stupid CPI, that’s what! June CPI printed at just a .02% gain, and the year to date figure fell to 3.0%, from 4.0% in May… Now before we go on… John Wiliams at www.shadowstats.com had the June inflation at 10.8%, down from 11.9% in May… But look at that difference between the Stupid CPI, which is proven to be cooked, massaged, and had hedonic adjustments added to it, and the shadowstats.com inflation number…   Ok, so now the markets have gone all ga-ga over the Stupid CPI print once again, and they have all figured out all by themselves that with inflation on the run to lower levels, the Fed Heads won’t have to continue to hike rates… 
Remember last month, when I told you that the BLS and Fed Heads were all in cahoots with each other, with one telling the other what they need for the Stupid CPI to seen as, and the BLS complying… But who am I took look a gift horse in the mouth?  If the markets want to go down this rabbit hole and think that inflation is whipped, and trade the dollar like it had, then I won’t argue with them, just point out that they are wrong… inflation is not whipped, and if you don’t believe go to the grocery store, and spend $100 and see how much you get… if the baggers didn’t put just a couple things in one of those plastic bags, so it makes it look like you bought a lot, you could probably get by with 1-2 bags…. Now tell me that it’s always been like that! No it hasn’t, and it won’t ever go back to the way it was either! 
The price of Oil moved higher in the $75 handle yesterday, and the 10-year got bought, based on the inflation outlook too… No rate hikes = lock in bond yields… 
In the overnight markets last night…  The dollar selling didn’t stop overnight folks… The BBDXY lost 3 more index points and starts today at 1,208… And the old Dollar Index has fallen all the way down to 100!  The widespread gains of the currencies across the globe, is something to see, for this tired old eye… Gold and Silver are basically flat to up a bit, this morning, as they await the U.S. markets to return to their desks. You know, when the dollar’s losses are widespread, like they are at this point, fund managers used to say they could throw a dart at a board of currencies, while blindfolded and find a winning currency… Shoot Rudy, even the Japanese yen is climbing on board this currency rally wagon… Earlier this week the yen hit 144, and this morning it is trading 138… See, what I mean about a widespread rally for the currencies? 
The price of Oil is steady Eddie with a $75 handle, and the 10-year is getting bought like funnel cakes at a State Fair, as investors seem to think that the Fed Heads’ rate hikes are a thing of the past…  I don’t know, but the Stupid CPI sure has thrown a cat among the pigeons, and while thta doesn’t surprise me, it does a bit in how damaging it has been to the dollar… Opposites are in play here, and have been for some time now… So, while a lower inflation rate, if that’s the really the case, is good for the U.S. economy, it’s bad for the dollar… 
Speaking of inflation, which I was always taught in economics classes is equal to money supply… And money supply is needed to grow to deal with the deficit spending policies of our government… Here’s Bill Bonner in his daily newsletter yesterday talking about the deficit spending: “The U.S. national debt has increased by $1 trillion in the five weeks since President Biden signed a bill into law that effectively turns off the debt ceiling until 2025.

On June 3, however, Biden signed legislation reflecting negotiations with House Republicans that requires a small spending cut next year and allows unlimited federal borrowing until 2025. With no debt ceiling in effect, federal borrowing jumped more than $350 billion in a single day and crossed the $32 trillion mark in less than two weeks.

Whee! It’s hi-ho…and off to the poorhouse we go!”

Did your parents ever warn you about ending up in the poorhouse Jail?   They instilled a fear in me of debt that I find it very interesting that I found a career that centered around Debt?   
Well, you know one of the best perfroming currencies these days? I can’t believe I’m talking about this currency so glowingly… The Mexican peso… Last week the peso had reached a muti-decade high of 17.05, and this morning, the peso is 16.89… Remember the peso is a European priced currency so the lower the price goes, the more return to you VS dollars… In the middle March, this year, the peso traded 19.05…   So, the higher interest rate in Mexico is fianally helping attract buyers to the peso… Just be careful here folks, I’ve seen too many investors, and businesses get burned in Mexico… 
On the other side of the planet from pesos, is the Swiss franc, that has been performing nicely ever since the Swiss National Bank got interest rates on the positive side of the ledger, and went about addressing their rising inflation  in a timely manner, and not let iinflation run freely for a year, before addressing it like the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel did… 
And you need to be careful with the pound sterling, folks… They have a mortgage bubble in the U.K, and with interest rates rising, it’s all going to come crumbling down at some point, but proving once again, that something may be quite evident, it might not be imminent…  I’m just saying… 
Ok, I don’t pull any punches, long time readers know that, I also don’t shy away from telling you things like this: I’m a subscriber to Prager U…  And yesterday, the Prager U, email to me began like this: “We thought we lived in a free country. We’re finding out we don’t. 

The American people have been sold out to powerful political and corporate elites. The media and journalism—historically the watchdogs for this type of corruption—are part of it. 
 
The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Department of Homeland Security have been weaponized to silence conservative Americans! Then the media lies to the public about it. 

Now, they’re not even hiding it.”

Lies, and innuendo, that became the motto of the FBI during the previous administration, and that’s a black eye on the U.S. as seen by foreigners… And just another reason that countries are backing away from buying Treasuries… 
Speaking of Treasuries… The Fed’s Balance sheet hasn’t gone through major weakening since it was announced that the Fed Heads were no longer in the bond buying business… At the height the balance sheet was $8.9 Trillion, and it stands as of July 5, at $8.3 Trillion…  What does that tell you? Well, it tells me that the Fed is lying about not buying bonds…  Because, you’re telling me that they’ve only seen 600 Billion in maturities since they supposedly stopped buying bonds?   I’m nto buying it… 
And before we head to the Big Finish today, Bloomberg.com had an article this morning, talking about the Big Fund Traders are betting that the dollar has reached its peak… Let’s listen in : ““Broadly we would probably assume that the US dollar has had its peak and there might be room for other currencies to perform better in the latter half of 2023-2024,” said Brad Gibson, co-head of Asia Pacific fixed income at AB. This is because the US economy will slow and the Fed is likely to start easing, he said”
Could this be the beginning of a multi-year weakening for the dollar? We’ve seen so many false dawns in recent years that I feel like the boy who cried wolf….   The PPT and their Treasure Trove of Exchange Stabilization Funds are always lurking around the dark alley, and that causes me to worry…  But then when I was a young man I loved reading Alfred E. Newman, who would say, “What, me worry?”  And that’s the stance I need to take with regards to the PPT… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard had the Stupid CPI report yesterday, that we’ve already talked about… For the life me, I still don’t know how the markets believe the Stupid CPI report… But they do, and so that’s that! Today’s Data Cupboard will have the PPI for June (Wholesale inflation) 
To recap… The dollar got sold like funnel cakes at a State Fair yesterday, after the Stupid CPI printed, and showed that annual inflation has fallen to 3.0%… John Williams says that real inflation is still 10.8%… Now which one do you relate to 3% or 10.8%…   Gold gained $25, and Silver gained 96-cents yesterday, while the BBDXY lost 12 index points!  Chuck points out some currencies that have been performing nicely other than the euro… 
For What It’s Worth… Today’s FWIW article is about the debt accumulation of the Millenials, and how this is going to weigh on the econonmy going forward, and it can be found here: Millennials Face Record $4 Trillion Debt Crisis — They’re Struggling to Build Wealth, Homeownership And Retirement Savings (yahoo.com)
Or, here’s your snippet: “A Wall Street Journal analysis of Federal Reserve data reveals a concerning financial situation for people ages 30 to 39, which constitute the majority of the millennial generation.

The demographic accumulated nearly $4 trillion in debt during the fourth quarter of 2022, reflecting a substantial $140 billion rise from the preceding quarter. The surge represents a 27% increase since late 2019, constituting the most significant upswing in debt accumulation since the 2008 financial crisis.
Contrary to popular belief, the escalating debt among millennials in their 30s cannot be solely attributed to discretionary spending on luxuries. While the rising costs of certain consumer goods, impacted by inflation, have played a role, it is not the sole driver of their financial predicament. The mounting debt is indicative of broader economic challenges faced by this generation.
Fed Data
The New York Fed’s data reveals that millennials in their 30s are accumulating debt at an alarming rate and are struggling with credit card and auto loan repayments. Delinquency rates in these areas have soared, further compounding their financial difficulties.
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Seventy-three percent of U.S. millennials in this age group live paycheck-to-paycheck, according to data from finance and commerce research hub PYMNTS.com.
Adding to their woes, this age group faces an additional obstacle to wealth accumulation because of the historically low level of housing affordability. This exacerbates the challenges they face in building financial security and long-term prosperity.

A key factor in this story is how student debt has affected millennials’ financial situation. According to a survey by Legal & General, more than one-third of millennials say their student loans have prevented them from buying a home. 

Chuck again… Wanna know what I think is going on here? Well, you’re going to hear it anyway! HA!  I think the the millennials are just waiting for their parents to croak…  I know that sounds heartless, and it is, but if you think about it you’ll come to same realization… It’s that or… they’re just waiting for the bailout from the gov’t… 
Market Prices 7/13/2023: American Style: A$ .6855, kiwi .6357, C$ .7600, euro 1.1171, sterling 1.3066, Swiss $1,1586, European Style: rand 18.0513, krone 10.0832, SEK 10.3164, forint 336.00, zloty 3.9691, 
koruna 21.2735, RUB 89.96, yen 138.40, sing 1.3256, HKD 7.8235, INR 82.07, China 7.1617, peso 16.91, BRL 4.8206, BBDXY 1,295.28, Dollar Index 100.22, Oil $75.83, 10-year 3.82%, Silver $24.27, Platinum $963.00, Palladium $1,302.00, Copper $3.84, and Gold… $1,959.04
That’s it for today… And this week, of course…  I have to get going this morning, and have my car at the shop at 8 am sharp!  Just an annual inspection is all it needs, but I have to leave it with them, as they are busier than a one-armed paper hanger… Darling daughter, Dawn, will pick me up and bring me home… I’ll figure out how to get back there when its done, when the time comes…  If I had two good legs, and was in better shape, I could walk there and back.. But if’s and what if’s were rain drops, I would be a desert… Saturday night, will be a big one in downtown St. Louis, as both the Cardinals and Stl. City SC soccer team will play… I’m going to the soccer game with oldest son, Andrew, and we’ll Uber home, …  wink, wink…  The great Al Stewart takes us to the finish line today with his song: The Year of The Cat… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a Fantastico Friday tomorrow, and please, oh please, with sugar on top, Be Good To Yourself! 
Chuck Butler