The Banking Crisis Is Over? Hardly!

April 26, 2023

* Currencies & metals get sold on Tuesday… 

* But then rebound in the overnight markets… 

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals found another way to lose a game last night… I know its early in the season, but this is getting serious, folks… UGH! I went to City Park to watch our StL City SC team last night, and sat with Frank Trotter! I also saw, Ty Keough, Jack Stapleton, and Dane Moody! It was an EverBank reunion! I’ve been to two games now, and each game has been won by the good guys by a score of 5-1… Maybe the owners of the team might want to get me to every game, eh? By now, you’ve heard the news that Frank Trotter is starting a new bank (EverBank2), this one is called Battle Bank, and he’s got all the pieces in place to virtually open, just waiting on the FDIC to bless the bank… If you haven’t been to his website yet, here it is: www.battlebank.com     The Band, Missouri, greets me this morning with their great driving song: Movin’ On… 
Tuesday was not a good day to be a currency not named dollar… The dollar bugs went on a rampage and at the end of the day, the BBDXY was up 6 index points, and the euro had dropped back below 1.10, with the other currencies taking their whipping from the dollar. This dollar rally was something out of left field… I say that because according to my estimate of how many traders, economists, hedge fund gurus, that are talking about how the fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, is going to be cutting rates later this year, one would think that the trade would be to sell dollars, since they bought dollars when rates were going up… Gold was getting beaten about the head and shoulders and then turned around… Gold did lose just $1.40 on the day to end the day at $1,288.50… Silver, too, turned around, but not as much as Gold did… Silver, which was down 70-cents in the early trading yesterday, rallied a bit to close down 43-cents on the day and close at $24.80… 
In the overnight markets last night… There must have been someone with an ounce of gray matter say, “Hey, why are we buying dollars, when we should be selling them?” And that got traders and investors to exam what their counterparts had done during the day on Tuesday, and that got them selling the dollar… And as we start the day today, the BBDXY has given bak 4 index points, the euro is back above 1.10, and Gold is back to $2,000… Now, this looks more like what the trading should be doing to me…   The price of Oil slipped lower again in the past 24 hours, to trade this morning with a $76 handle… It’s a daily battle between the Oil bulls, and the Oil bears… I do believe in my heart of hearts that the Oil bulls will be the eventual winner here.. 
The 10-year Treasury continues to see its yield drop… This morning the 10-year is at 3.40% yield… That’s crazy folks, but… it does poit out what I was saying above about how many folks are calling for the Fed Heads to be cutting rates later this year…  I guess it all depends on the data that prints betwen FOMC meetings… Speaking of which, I’m still calling for a tiny 25 Basis Point rate hike at the next FOMC in May… 
I was reading yesterday about the Japanese yen, and how a glut of investors, traders, etc. are betting that the yen is a ONE-Way street to stronger levels VS the dollar based on the idea that the new Bank of Japan (BOJ) Gov is going to do more than drop the control of the Gov’t Bond yield…  I read that and thought, but… hasn’t the BOJ disappointed the markets time after time previously?  And I’m of the thought that the yen will see 1.40, before it sees 1.25… (remember, yen is European Pricing, so the lower the price, is a good thing for yen) 
I was telling Frank last night, that I had come up with a currency mix that would be a good combo to combat dollar weakness… And he asked me, if I had talked to the folks on my old trading desk about that… And of course I hadn’t, because they don’t want to hear from me any longer.. I’m a “has been”…  He laughed, and said, that I should anyway… Well, I said, if they read the Pfennig still, they know what I think… 
For those of you, who skipped over that part yesterday, where I listed the combo mix of currencies, that I would be looking to own to offset dollar weakness… They are: euros, francs, Aussie dollars, kiwi, and rubles…  You’ve got the offset to the dollar in the euro, you’ve got a safe haven in the franc, you’ve got an Oil play in rubles, and you’ve got currencies with interest rates either higher than the dollar or going to be higher than, when the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel begins to cut rates…  
That would make a good combo currency CD, in my humble country boy opinion… I’m just saying… 
Well, the good folks at Gata sent me this note yesterday, “Shares of First Republic continued to plunge on Tuesday as regulators in Washington and financiers on Wall Street scrambled to come up with a plan to stabilise the ailing bank.

The California-based lenders stock price, which is down by more than 93 per cent this year, fell by a further 49.4 per cent, a day after it revealed its customers had withdrawn $100 billion of deposits during last month’s turmoil.”

So, Ahem, Janet Yellen, do you still believe that the banking crisis is over? Well, knowing how she thinks, since I’ve been following her moves since she was the San Francisco Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel President, I would say that she knows deep down that the crisis isn’t over, but she has to tell us all that it is, so that there are no more bank runs… 
The top 30 banks with uninsured deposits have a total of $7 Trillion in deposits over the $250,000 FDIC max insured deposit. That’s a lot of uninsured deposits, don’t you think? And if you do, then do you believe that if any of these 30 banks can’t make it, that the banking crisis is just in the 3rd inning?  Yeah, that’s what I thought, so don’t pay attention to the woman behind the curtain… (Janet Yellen) I read an article yesterday that called Yellen, the “high priestess” of the economy… I laughed until I cried!
Well, the other news yesterday was that the POTUS has decided to run again in 2024, when he will be 81 years old… Did anyone mention a competency test? I mean in general, shouldn’t anyone running for President of this nation, and holder of the button to ignite nuclear bombs, have to take a competency test before being elected? I’m just saying.. . No politics here, just an observation from the cheap seats… 
Before we head to the Big Finish today, I have a funny for you… Dennis Miller sent this to me and said when he saw this it reminded him of me!   I played in a small band named The Hinges… We opened for the Doors! HA! 
The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the stupid Consumer Confidence report and it believe it or don’t, it actualy showed that Confidence fell in March! Yowza! Now that’s something to write home about! Maybe, just maybe, cause you never know, the folks that take the surveys, actually called someone else besides their uncles and aunts!  In another surprising data print yesterday, Case/ Shiller says that home prices actually rose in February .1%, but a rise nonetheless… Stranger than fiction, but it is what it is… So, we’ll move along to today’s Data Cupboard… Today we’ll see the color of Durable Goods Orders for March… February’s Durable Goods were negative, so in keeping with the surprise data prints, I’ll say today’s print for March will be positive! 
To recap… Tuesday was not the day to be a currency not named the U.S. dollar… The BBDXY gained 6 index points on the day, and the euro fell back below 1.10, Gold got sold big time early, but fought back to only lose $1.40… Chuck questioned the thought process fo buying dollars, given is seems most everyone’s opinion is that the Fed Heads will cut rates this year…  In the overnight markets calmer heads with an ounce of gray matter, decided that buying dollars was dumb, and they proceeded to sell dollars, and the BBDXY gave back 4 index points, and the euro moved back above 1.10…  Lots of other things to talk about today, so if you came here first, you might, just might, cause you never know, want to go back and read the whole letter! 
For What It’s Worth…  Long ago and far away, I had the opportunity to talk to Dennis Gartman… He’s a very famous investment advisor, newsletter writer, etc. And every now and then he sends me a note about something I said in the Pfennig… Well, yesterday, Kitco News had something on Dennis, so this time, I’m going to print something he said!  And it can be found here:Dennis Gartman remains bullish on gold, recommends University of Akron endowment fund increase its exposure to 5% | Kitco News
Or, here’s your snippet: ” Gold’s inability to hold its ground above $2,000 is disappointing; however, it remains an attractive safe-haven asset, according to famed commodity investor Denis Gartman.

In his latest investment letter, Gartman said that as chairman of the University of Akron’s Foundation’s endowment investment committee, the precious metal has outperformed in the portfolio. He noted that the university’s endowment fund reduced its equity holdings by 3% two years ago and put that into gold.
“As of today, GLD was up 15.7% over that time, while the broad Russell 2000 stock index was down by approximately 18.9% over that same period,” he said.
He also recommended the fund increase its gold holding to 5% of the portfolio.
In his personal investments, Gartman reiterated his bullish positioning in gold and Treasuries. He added that he is also long-term bearish on equities.
“I’m still holding 80.6% of my portfolio in 2-year notes and 2.2% in cash. I am short of 6.4% of my portfolio via derivatives and I’m long of 10.8% via gold using GLD and GDX with a focus upon the latter,” he said.
Gartman’s bullish outlook for the precious metal comes as prices look to regain their foothold on $2,000 an ounce. The yellow metal sold off sharply last week, falling to a two-week low as market expectations around the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy started to shift.
Markets have all but priced in a 25-basis point hike at next week’s monetary policy meeting. At the same time, markets are pushing back the first potential rate cut after the summer.

The gold market has also seen some profit-taking as concerns over the banking sector eased after the failure of major regional banks in the U.S. and the collapse of Credit Suisse in Europe last month.”

Chuck again… I agree 100% with Dennis on this… And I thank him for participating, although he wasn’t aware of it until now! 
Market Prices 4/26/2023: American Style: A$.6600, kiwi .6126, C$ .7339, euro 1.1046, sterling 12477, Swiss $1.1252, European Style: rand 18.4000, krone 10.6246, SEK 10.3072, forint 340.28, zloty 4.1575, 
koruna 21.2630, RUB 81.77, yen 133.34, sing 1.3357, HKD 7.8500, INR 81.76, China 6.9237, peso 18.08, BRL 5.0534, BBDXY 1,224.64, Dollar Index 101.35, Oil $76.82, 10-year 3.40%, Silver $24.96, Platinum $1,106.00, Palladium $1,519.00, Copper $3.88, and Gold… $2.000.14
That’s it for today… Man I went back to look for something in yesterday’s Pfennig and noticed that it was quite long… Well, sometimes I have a lot to say, and sometimes I don’t… Yesterday, was a day when I had a lot to say! 
I’m still very impressed by the new City Park, nice and new, clean, and the food is good, while the soccer is good too! And, besides all of the steps, I love my seats! Especially now that I know that my good friend, Frank Trotter has the two seats next to mine! I don’t go back to the Park until May 27th, as I share some of my tickets with good friend, Rick Baur… Speaking of Rick, a child of the 80’s, he’ll love this one… We are taken to the finish line today with a song from the Outfield titled: Your Love…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

Forgetting The Pain?

April 25, 2023

* currencies & metals rally on Monday… 

* the dollar turns the table in the overnight markets

Good Day… And Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Another late game last night, and I couldn’t for the life of me, stay up to watch it all, so when I woke up at 3 am, like i do every night, I checked the score, to see that my beloved Cardinals lost, yet again!  UGH! The Cardinals aren’t even 1/2 through their road trip out west… More late games are in store…  I’m going to the City SC Park tonight for a club match game with Union of Omaha… I had difficulty getting someone to go with me… Everyone is “busy”, or had to arrange their sock drawers..  Poor, poor pitiful me… (Linda Ronstadt) Ok… did you know that this is earnings week or the big Tech stocks? Could their bad earnings, if that’s what happens, be the decider of a Fed Heads rate hike in May? I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see… Faces greet me this morning with their great 70’s song: Ooh, La, La… 
Well, the first day of the week brought about some dollar selling, and the BBDXY lost nearly 3 index points… The euro, once again, moved higher in the 1.10 handle, and the Swiss franc continues to kick rear end and take names later… It was about at this level that the PPT stepped in and bought dollars with their Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF)… And that put a brief end to the dollar selling… But sort of like forgetting the pain, traders and investors continue to sell dollars any chance they get… Gold gained $5 on day and ended the day at $1,289.90.. Dave Gonigam in the 5 Minute Forecast, said that Gold was just trying to get its bearings after a beat down on Friday… 
Silver gained 7 -cents on the day, to end the day at $25.24… I have to give you this from Ed Steer’s letter on Saturday, www.edsteergoldsilver.com  “Ted is still of the opinion that Bank of America is short about one billion ounces of silver in the OTC market, courtesy of JPMorgan & Friends. He’s now of the opinion that they’re also short around 25 million troy ounces of gold…with the same bunch of crooks on the long side.

If BofA gets hung out to dry, they could possibly end up being the next Bear Stearns. However, there won’t be anyone to save them…except the Fed, or maybe the Exchange Stabilization Fund.
The situation regarding the Big 4/8 concentrated commercial short positions in silver and gold is still obscene…with that obscenity in gold growing larger by the week…as per the above COT Report. How much it has improved since Tuesday’s cut-off, is debatable.
As Ted has been pointing out ad nauseam forever, the resolution of the Big 4/8 short positions will be the sole determinant of precious metal prices going forward. And as I’ve been mentioning for a month now, they have been very reluctant to add to their short positions in silver over the last two months and a bit — and have only done so with great reluctance these past two reporting weeks.

And, as always, nothing else matters — and that should be obvious to all by now, except the willfully blind, of course…plus those whose so-called ‘reputations’ and careers depend upon them not seeing it…to paraphrase Upton Sinclair.”

 
Chuck again… I agree the shot position in Silver is obscene… And I’ll say no more.. today on this…  And the Ted that Ed is talking about above is Ted Butler, the silver guru, and no relation to me that I know of! 
 
In the overnight markets last night….  When I went to bed last night, the dollar was continuing to get sold, but something turned traders around on the night, and the dollar rallied the rest of the night. The BBDXY regained the 3 index points it lost on Monday, and things just look rotten to the core this morning. Gold is getting sold in the early trading, and is down $10 to start the day, while Silver is down 70-cents to start the day.  These bear raids are giving me a rash! Central Banks keep buying physical Gold, and the price manipulators keep showing up at the COMEX with arms full of short Gold / Silver paper trades…  
 
I mentioned yesterday, that there could be something to the thought that the Central Banks are behind the the engineered takedowns, because they need to buy more physical Gold, and they don’t want to be seen chasing a market higher… I’m just saying… 
 
In the other markets, the price of Oil is trading with a $78 handle this morning…  The price of Oil just keeps getting driven lower by the outlook for a major slowdown in the U.S. economy, at the same time its getting bought by the people that see the supply issue being a plus for Oil…  This is a major conflict going on right now, and it will be interesting to see who wins… my money, is on the supply issues driving the price of Oil higher…  Hmmm… What do you think of that? 
 
The bond boys all have gone in all-in, on the thought that the Fed is going to pause, and that they will indeed begin to cut rates in 2023, and so the 10-year’s yield continues to drop lower, this morning the 10-year is trading with a 3.44% yield, down from Friday’s yield of 3.62%…  I just don’t know what to think of this thought by the bond boys..  They really believe that they have the Fed Heads figured out… If they end up being right, then I’ll bow down before them and say I’m not worthy! For I believe they are barking up the wrong tree, here… 
 
Well, did you hear the news that the Chile Gov’t is going to nationalize the lithium market… I had to laugh when I saw that, because I dont’ know why Gov’ts seem to think they know how to do something better than the private entities… . Chile has three lithium companies, 2 of them were private, and did a great job, and the 3rd was a national entity, and was known as a real screw-up… And now they want to take it all over.. Good luck, with that! I would say that given this information, one might just want to take a position in Lithium, because to me this asset is about to be in short supply, which should drive the price higher… I’m just saying… 
 
Speaking of shortages…  I was thinking about this, this past weekend… Given that we know that Central Bank purchases of physical Gold last year amounted to 1,136 Tonnes, it means there was less physical Gold to go around to everyone else that wanted to buy it… Now, you’re not going to read about a physical Gold shortage in the news, because that’s the last thing the short Gold paper traders want to be heard!  But do the math, and it points to problems going forward, and like I’ve always said, “if everyone bought phsyical Gold, it would put the short paper traders out of business”.. So, let’s keep it going! buy, buy, buy! 
 
There was another country that signed up for Russian Oil and to leave dollars out of the terms of transaction… Bolivia and Russia signed an agreement for Russian Oil that will be paid in rubles… That means Bolivia will have to swap some of their dollar reserves for rubles…   
 
I used to give presentations all over North and Central America, and in them I would tell people about the trade agreements that China was signing with trade partners, that would leave dollars out of the terms of transactions, and I would tell the audience that, “when China signs an agreement with S. Arabia, then it’s all over but the shouting for the dollar as a petrol currency”… Guess what happend last month, that I reported on, but no one else in the universe did? You guessed it China agreed with S. Arabia to exchange their respective currencies when buying Oil, leaving dollars out… now, if S. Arabia is doing this, what other oil producing countries in the Middle East will follow? So, bye, Bye, Miss American petrol dollar…  I’m just saying… 
 
There was a time when I did a weekly video for the Sovereign Society, and their publication The Currency Capitalist… I also was one of 3 editors for that publication… Ahh, so long ago… and oh so far away… 
 
A week or so ago, I talked about the Chinese renminbi, and how it has been getting stronger… Well, I found this on Bloomberg.com yesterday, and so here it is: ” the Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Index for China rose close to the highest since 2006 this month and yet the yuan is up only about 1% against its trade-weighted basket so far in 2023. The yuan should rise, but it’s worrying that the currency has been almost impervious to good news, as it’s hard to imagine what more the nation can do to impress. Aside from ongoing geopolitical risk, it may simply be that investors need time to get used to the idea that the China trade is back.”
 
And the Swiss franc continues to take no prisoners… What’s gotten into the franc, and why is it so in demand by investors?  Well, other than the Swiss National Bank (SNB) hiking rates to combat inflation, there’s the good old Safe Haven buying going on… But even more than that, there’s this idea that the SNB isn’t finished with hiking rates, and that has got franc investors all lathered up… 
 
I really do believe that this time… will be a real long term downward trend for the dollar… And so, what does that bring to your mind as to what must be bought?   I’ll go out on a limb here and tell you that a nice mix of: euros, francs, Aussie dollars, kiwi, and rubles would give you the offset currency to the dollar, give you the safe haven currency, and 3 currencies with interest rates that either are or will be higher than that of the dollar… 
 
You could call it: Chuck’s Solution to Dollar Weakness….   
 
The U.S. Data Cupboard gets back into action today with the Case/ Shiller Home Price Index for Feb… I’m sure this data set will continue to show that home prices keep falling… And we’ll see the stupid Consumer confidence index, that somehow keeps showing gains each month… Who are these survey people calling? They don’t call me, that’s for sure! There was something that I mentioned yesterday from the previous Friday’s reports… The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index printed at negative -31.2, and one point about that I failed to make yesterday is that whenever, in the past, this index went to -30 or more, it signaled that a recesssion is on the way…  oh, and I can’t forget to mention that Bed Bath & Beyond filed for bankruptcy… 
 
To recap… The dollar got sold to start the week yesterday, with the BBDXY losing nearly 3 index points… Gold gained $5 in attempt to gain its bearings after Friday’s beat down… The euro has returned to trade above 1.10, and the Swiss france is taking no prisioners these days. Chuck talks a lot about Silver and the short positions in the metal, and then switches to talk about shortage that must be taking place in physical Gold, after all the Central Band Buying last year… You won’t hear aout that on TV or the newspaper!  And get this… The Gov’t in Chile thinks they know how to mine and market and produce Lithium better the private arena! That’s downright laughable!
 
For What It’s Worth… Well, I’ve explained to you previously a few times at least that I love the articles that Matthew Piepenberg writes at Gold Switzerland, and todays’ FWIW is Matthew talking about the coming disasters in finance and economies and it can be found here: So Many Open Signs of Financial Disaster Ahead and Gold Working – Matterhorn – GoldSwitzerland
Or, here’s your snippet: “From oil markets to treasury stacking, backdoor QE, investor fantasy and hedge fund prepping, it’s becoming more and more clear that the big boys are bracing for disaster as gold stretches its legs for a rapid run north.

Recently, I dove into the cracks in the petrodollar as yet another symptom of a world turning its back on USTs and USDs.
Gold, of course, has a role in these headlines if one looks deep enough.
So, let’s look deeper.
Diving Deeper into the Oil Story
The headlines of late, for example, are all about “surprise” OPEC production cuts.
Why is this happening and what does it say about gold down the road?
First, let’s face the politics.
As noted many times, it seems US policy, on everything from short-sighted (suicidal?) sanctions to the “green initiative” makes just about zero sense in the real world, which is miles apart from the “keep-me-elected” fantasy-world of DC.
After all, energy, matters, which means oil matters.
But the current regime in DC has been losing friends in Saudi Arabia and cutting its prior and once admirable shale production outputs (think 2016-2020) in the US despite a world that still runs on black gold fighting against green politics.
The DC attack on shale may make the Greta Thunbergs happy, but let’s be blunt: It defies economic common sense.
Saudi, by cutting production, is now showing a still very much oil-dependent world it is not afraid of losing market share to the USA in the face of rising oil for the simple reason that the USA just aint got enough oil to fill the gap or flex its energy muscles.
In the meantime, Chinese demand for crude is peaking while Russian oil flows to the east (including to Japan) are hitting new highs at prices above the US-led price cap of $60/barrel.
If DC has any blunt realists (wrongly castigated as tree-killers) left, it will have to re-think its anti-oil policies and get back toward that recent era when US shale was responsible for 90% of total global oil supply growth.

If not, oil prices can and will spike, making Powell’s war on inflation even more of an open charade.”

Chuck again… Matthew goes on to discuss inflation and other things, so if you’ve got the time, we’ve got the beer, no wait! we’ve got the article for you! 
Market Prices 4/25/2023: American Style: A$ .6652, kiwi .6157, C$ .7356, euro 1.1025, sterling 1.2434, Swiss $1.1262, European Style: rand 18.2794, krone 10.6081, SEK 102561, forint 340.57, zloty 4.1638, koruna 21.2971, RUB 81.66, yen 134.20, sing 1.3368, HKD 7.8496, INR 81.91, China 6.9218, peso 17.96, BRL 5.0529, BBDXY 1,225.27, Dollar Index 101.59, Oil $78.62, 10-year 3.44%, Silver $24.53, Platinum $1,069.00, Palladium $1,495.00, Copper $3.87, and Gold… $1,977.78
That’s it for today… It’ll be along night tonight, so I had better get a nap in this afternoon! Today is the birthday of my nephew: Eddie… I haven’t seen Eddie on quite a few years now… He’s a grown man with a family so he’s got his own life to live… I don’t recall all my nieces and nephews birthdays but for some reason I always remember Eddie’s…  Happy Birthday bud! I forgot to tell you about all my doc visits last week: My heart doctor gave me a gold star sticker! HA!, my dermatologist didn’t find any other growths, My dentist was happy with me, and my oncologist solved the mystery of why I had a heart stroke! It was caused by one of my chemo meds… So, I stopped taking that one immediately! And other than that we put off my next scan for June! So, it was a good week! Head East takes us to the finish line today with their song: Never Been Any Reason…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please, oh please, Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

 

How’d We Get Here?

April 24, 2023

* metals see another engineered takedown on Friday

* A credit crunch is here… 

Good Day… and a Marvelous Monday to you! Man, it’s cold outside this morning… my iWatch tells me it was 33 degrees when I awoke… YUCK! I do not like cold weather! Saturday and Sunder never even got close to normal temps for this time of year! I said to Kathy yesterday, “let’s go back to Florida”, to which she replied, “It’ll warm up here”… So, I guess I’m stuck here in the cold… UGH! The Cardinals are cold, and that’s a bad thing… I met up with the normal crowd at our local watering hole on Friday, and then was treated when a friend from High School days showed up! It was great seeing Linda Bilgere Moore again… Her laugh is so different, you could be in a crowd of people and know that she was there when she laughed! The Guess Who greets me this morning, with their song: No Sugar Tonight/ New Mother Nature…   Burton Cummings, the lead singer of the Guess Who, was always a fave of mine…
Well, the bears performed another engineered takedown of Gold on Friday last week… It just doesn’t make any sense to me besides their profits they make by shorting Gold (& Silver)… But it is what it is… And to me, all the Central Bank buying of physical Gold is the only thing standing in the short paper traders’ way…  So, on a day when the dollar barely moved… The U.S. data was bad… Gold was sold to the tune of losing $21.40 on the day and closing the week at $1,984.90… Silver saw it’s value lose 17-cents to close the week at $25.17… The currencies are range trading with the dollar barely moving, while the price of Oil sunk $2 on Friday, and ended the week trading with a $77 handle.. The 10-year Treasury trading was boring, with the 10-year’s yield ending the week at 3.61%
I mentioned the Central Bank buying, and it just so happens that the good folks at GATA sent me this note: “Central bankers who manage trillions in foreign exchange reserves are loading up on gold as geopolitical tensions including the war in Ukraine force them to rethink their investment strategies.

An annual poll of 83 central banks, which manage a combined $7 trillion in foreign exchange assets, found that more than two-thirds of respondents thought their peers would increase their gold holdings in 2023.”

Makes you wonder, doesn’t it? That the Central Banks could be behind the short paper traders, having them get the price of Gold lower so they can buy more phsyical Gold?   Stranger thing have happend through the years folks, all you have to do is think, “what would I do I was a Central Bank Gov.? ”  
In the overnight markets last night… It was boredom city… There was little to no movement in the currencies and metals, Oil remained trading with a $77 handle, and the only asset class that moved, bonds…  The BBDXY is trading in the same clothes as Friday, 1,225, Gold is flat this morning and Silver is down just 3-cents in the early trading… The euro did move back above 1.10 overnight, so there was that… The 10-year saw some major buying overnight, I wonder by whom? That is strange folks… the other asset classes were flat as a pancake (Head East), but bonds got bought? The 10-year’s yield this morning is 3.53%, down from Friday’s close of 3.62%… That’s a big overnight move, that was caused by some major buying… And again, I look at the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel and accuse them of backdoor QE…  I’m just saying… 
I really got to thinking this past weekend, about how we got into this mess, and i started with the fact that it began a long time ago with transfer payments…  We, as a country began to pay out monthly payments to people that couldn’t work, and that was fine, until… Our illustrious (NOT!) leaders decided to win more votes they could make promises to more people, and the deficit spending on these programs started mounting… The defict began to grow, like a weed… Then somewhere along the way, we began to believe that the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel was our savior… The markets would swoon over Big Al Greenspan, who started the bailing out of economy a regular occurance for the Central Bank.  The Dot.com bubble, lead to the Housing Bubble, which lead to the stock/ bond market bubbel, and the free money just kept being printed and distributed…  But to me, that era is over…  Interest rates are rising, and we have inflation volatility, and deflation at the same time, and it’s all just getting started folks…  
Longtime friend, and best-selling author, and publishing guru, Bill Bonner, has been describing what happened in Argentina to bring the country to hyper-inflation and currency debasement, and he had this warning to Americans… “How many people have a Plan B… some gold under the floorboards… some silver coins… a crypto wallet… a foreign bank account… anything outside the State’s strangulating system?” Bill Bonner at Bonner Reseach.com
 
Chuck again… Or, you could just go with my solution to this mess… Got Gold? 
 
You know, dear reader, that the responses to the Pfennig, haven’t been working for a couple of months now, and it’s a shame that it’s like that, for I no longer get to see what’s on your mind, after reading the Pfennig each day. There is a work around that they showed me, but I thought it was too junky and full of things that had to be done, and so I scrapped it,  and asked them to come up with something else…  I don’t know, something like, rewriting the template with a new link to the web responses? Sounds like a solution to me, but then I’m not even your last choice as a Tech guy! 
 
Last week was Earth Day… Did you know that? I recall in the 70’s Earth Day was a BIG DEAL in St. Louis… 
 
Did you hear about the Gold heist in Canada? This is good… stay with me here: “More than $20 million worth of gold and other high-value items have been stolen from Toronto Pearson Airport, Peel Regional Police said today.

Duty Inspector Stephen Duivesteyn told media police are investigating the theft that took place early Monday evening after a plane that arrived at the airport was unloaded and its cargo transported to a holding facility.
“Once this cargo was offloaded at a holding facility, subsequent to its arrival, this high-value container was removed by illegal means,” said Duivesteyn.

“The container contained a high-value shipment. It did contain gold, but was not exclusive to gold, and contained other items of monetary value.”

 
Chuck again… Now doesn’t that sound like a trailer for a movie?  Like I said above: stranger things have happened… 
 
More than $20 million worth of gold and other high-value items have been stolen from Toronto Pearson Airport, Peel Regional Police said today.

Duty Inspector Stephen Duivesteyn told media police are investigating the theft that took place early Monday evening after a plane that arrived at the airport was unloaded and its cargo transported to a holding facility.
“Once this cargo was offloaded at a holding facility, subsequent to its arrival, this high-value container was removed by illegal means,” said Duivesteyn.

“The container contained a high-value shipment. It did contain gold, but was not exclusive to gold, and contained other items of monetary value.”

 
Chuck again… Now doesn’t that sound like a trailer for movie? Like I said above: Stranger things have happened… 
 
The U.S. Data Cupboard today has no data for us… nada, nil, zero, a Big Fat Goose Egg! And that’s probably a good thing, considering the uglyness of last week’s data… On Thursday alone the data was so ugly, it could make onions cry! Here’s the rundown of the Thursday data prints… Weekly Initial Claims were up 5,000 to 245,000, The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index was a negative -31.2, which followed Feb’s negative -23.2, so things here are just getting worse… That was followed by Existing Home Sales, which were down 2%, and finally the piece de’ resitance… Leading Economic Indicators followed Feb’s negative -.5%, with a March print of negative -1.2%, if that data doesn’t spell a recession is coming then I’m a monky’s uncle! 
 
And I found this on www.wallstreetonparade.com: “On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released its Beige Book, a compilation of current economic conditions in each of its 12 Federal Reserve districts. The information that was collected in each of the regional reports was gathered on or before April 10 – so it is relatively current.

It is not a good sign that three of the Fed districts that pump out a significant chunk of U.S. GDP reported that bank credit had tightened noticeably, ostensibly as fallout from the banking collapses in March and depositor runs.

The New York Fed reported that credit conditions in the Second Fed District, which includes New York state, the 12 northern counties of New Jersey, Connecticut’s Fairfield County, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, “deteriorated sharply.” “

 
Chuck again… Uh-oh… The credit economy is in trouble…  I’m just saying… 
To recap… The dollar was boring to  end the week last week, but the metals saw another engineered takedown , by the short gold paper traders… And lost $21 to end the week… Chuck points out that if it weren’t for all the buying of physical Gold by Central Banks, Gold would be in deep dookie… And then Chuck goes and give us his thoughts that ran through his mind this past weekend about how we got into this mess…  The data last week was very ugly, and I would just point to the Thursday data prints if anyone says to you that the conomy is strong… 
 
 
For What It’s Worth… All this talk about dedollarization that’s going on these days, prompted me to look for an article that would explain why other than the sanctions and this one does it… And it an be found here: Dollar May Fall to Yuan, Crypto But Not Soon: Niall Ferguson – Bloomberg
Or, here’s your snippet: ““Every night,” the president mused, “I ask myself why every country needs to trade in the dollar. … Who decided it was the dollar after the disappearance of the gold standard? … Today, countries have to chase after dollars to export, when they could be exporting in their own currencies.”

The president in question was Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil, and the venue was the New Development Bank in Shanghai on April 13. There was a great deal of interest in this latest news about Lula when I visited Sao Paulo last week. To me, however, the striking thing was how un-new it was. Lula’s words immediately brought to my mind the musings of another president more than half a century ago:
The convention whereby the dollar is given a transcendent value as an international currency no longer rests on its initial base. … The fact that many states accept dollars … in order to make up for the deficits of [the] American balance of payments, has enabled the United States to be indebted to foreign countries free of charge. Indeed, what they owe those countries, they pay … in dollars that they themselves can issue as they wish. … This unilateral facility attributed to America has helped spread the idea that the dollar is an impartial, international [means] of exchange, whereas it is a means of credit appropriated to one state.
The speaker then was President Charles de Gaulle of France, and the date was Feb. 4, 1965. It was de Gaulle’s broadside against the dollar that prompted his finance minister, Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, to coin the memorable phrase “exorbitant privilege,” which encapsulated the French complaint.

Being fed up with the dominance of the mighty dollar is, in other words, old hat. Indeed, it is such a recurrent theme of financial journalism that one can identify cycles in the use of the phrase “exorbitant privilege.” Recent peaks, according to Google, were in 2007, 2011 and 2014. The Google “program” for “de-dollarization” follows a similar path.”

 
Chuck again… the writer goes on to say that dedollarization isn’t going to be a thing that happens overnight, if it actually does happen it will be years in the coming…  But then just last week I ran across an article that talked about how the pace of dedollarization really picked up steam last year… Hmmm…
 
Market Prices 4/24/ 2023: American Style: A$ .6683, kiwi .6142, C$ .7387, euro 1.1004, sterling 1.2435, Swiss $1.1235, European Style: rand 18.1192, krone 10.5767, SEK 10.2085, forint 341.36, zloty 4.1878, 
koruna 21.3018, RUB 81.26, yen 134.64, sing 1.3348, HKD 7.8486, INR 81.93, China 6.8927, peso 18.08, BRL 5.0504, BBDXY 1,225.81, Dollar Index 101.66, Oil $77.76, 10-year 3.53%, Silver $25.08, Platinum $1,106.00, Palladium $1,590.00, Copper $3.98, and Gold… $1,984.21
 
That’s it for today… Tough weekend in Seattle for my beloved Cardinals…Salvaging one game on Sunday..  They’ve found just about every way possible to lose a game so far this young season, I sure hope they turn things around soon.. Our soccer team, StL City SC played to a draw in Colorado… It’s never a bad thing to play to draw on the road… Great Goaltending by the City team kept them from being blown out in that game… The City team has to play a Cup game on Tuesday night, a very quick turnaround…  Man did the weather revert to cold this past weekend! I was grilling for my son, Andrew’s, water polo tournament in 40 degree weather! Eric Burdon and the Animals take us to the finish line today with their song: We Gotta Get Out Of This Place… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself! 
 
Chuck Butler
 

Another Bear Raid On The Metals Overnight…

April 19, 2023

* Currencies and metals rally on Tuesday

* Metals get whacked in the overnight markets

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you!  Everything has gone wrong for my beloved Cardinals, so far this spring… It’s a long season, and while there’s plenty of time to get things worked out, I have a very uneasy feeling that it’s going to be a loooooonnnnnggg year!  I saw my heart doctor yesterday, and he was quite concerned that I suffered that stroke in January…  He was quite happy that I had no ill effects from the stroke, and then looked at my pacemaker’s report, listened to my heart, and told me that I was doing well… And there were no changes, and he’ll see me in 6 months!  So, one DR. Appt. down, and two more to go… Thursday and Friday this week… So, this will be the last Pfennig this week, and I’ll pick it back up next Monday…  Steve Winwood greets me this morning with his song: Arc Of A Diver…  I saw Steve Winwood in concert at our Muny outdoor Ampitheater… It was a great concert!   
Well, there was all kind of weird stuff going on yesterday, that I’ll get to after the markets reports, you’re not going to want to miss these goings on, I mean it! 
The dollar fought back after losing 3 index points overnight, the dollar won back 1 of those lost points, so in the end the BBDXY lost 2 index points yesterday… No biggie… But there was selling of the dollar, keep that in mind, for the rest of the week… Gold was up nicely at one point in the day, and had to settle for being up just $10.30 to close at $2,006.10… Silver too was up nicely at one point yesterday, but had to settlle for being up just 18-cents, to close at $25.28…  Yes, the short paper traders were back this time with just some “trimming”…  The price of Oil kept the $80 handle throughout trading yesterday, and the 10-year added 1 basis point to its yield at 3.58%… 
Who’s afraid of the Big Bad Wolf? I thought it to be very important that the currencies and metals got back on the rally tracks yesterday, proving that while the price manipulators can take down these asset classes, they can’t keep them down… Very important to traders and investors to see that, the coast is clear, and it’s ok to get back in the water…  But the short paper traders saw to it that their trip back o the water was not safe… 
In the overnight markets last night…. Well, the dollar wasn’t bought or sold overnight, and its trading in the same clothes as yesterday, at this point… The short paper traders (manipulators) showed up and performed yet another engineered takedown of Gold & Silver… Gold is down $32 this morning, and I can tell you what I think happened… The short paper traders saw Gold gain yesterday, and they didn’t like the talk that all was clear, and so they decided to hit it hard once again, and cause some real damage and concern to investors… Silver is down 44-cents this morning, and it looks like its going to be a very ugly day, which it is already!  
The price of Oil slipped another buck and now trades with a $79 handle… lack of demand is outweighing the news that the U.S. Oil supplies are dwindling… And the 10-year just keeps getting sold, with its yield rising to 3.62%… 
I just can’t get these short paper traders out of my mind this morning, they have gone and ruined a nice rally in Gold & Silver, and they have no qualms about doing it again and again… I know that I shouldn’t get upset with these bas&*^$ds…  I own Gold and I’m not selling it, and so it doesn’t matter to me if Gold gets whacked, because I know that eventually all that will be behind us… Gold is a store of wealth… not a commodity that gets bought an sold willy nilly… so price movements like this shouldn’t get me upset… beathe Chuck, count to ten… now isn’t that better?  I guess… 
OK… this wierd story is going to lead us off today, because it could very well be the wierdest!  So, we all know that the N. Korean Chairman is a nut case, correct? I mean he keeps shooting off Balistic Missiles getting closer and closer to Japan… And now, he has issued a proclomation that he will confiscate all forieng currencies being used…  The bulk of those in use in N. Korea are dollar and renminbi… While I doubt that his confiscation of dollars will amount to a hill of beans for dollar issuance, it could bring about other countries implementing the same kind of laws…  For instance, I could see China banning dollars, Russia banning dollars, India banning dollars, Brazil banning dollars, and then other countries following their lead…  I just think this is something we need to keep an eye on  going forward, don’t you? 
Next up is this story about war mongering…  here it is: “Senior U.S. Defense official Douglas Macgregor said politicians who support Israel are driven by money & the pro-Israel lobby in the US is trying to drag America into war… ‘John Bolton has become very, very rich and is in the position he’s in because of his unconditional support for the Israeli lobby. He is their man on the ground.” 
 
Well, the next story comes from the leaked documents, and that is that the U.S. already has some special operations on the ground in Ukraine…  Now, I’m sure Russia has heard about this, and that could lead to escalation … Don’t you think?  Scares the bejeebers out of me… 
 
And finally, this isn’t so wierd… China reported that their 4th QTR GDP grew 4.5% from a year earlier, when they were shut down for Covid…  They also reported that  Retail sales jumped 10.6% in March from a year earlier, the highest level of growth since June 2021. In the January to March months, retail sales grew 5.8%, 
 
A long time ago, i was told by a client that used to do business in China that I should believe only 1/2 of what the Chinese report…  But even doing that, they are on the right track to get back to where the were previously! 
I have more weird stuff going on, but I don’t have the time or space to include them all… So, let’s move along… 
 
The Chinese renminbi has been gaining VS the dollar too during this time… The currency has been pretty Steady Eddie around 6.96, but recently is has moved to 6.87… Not a super-duper strong move, but when the currency is only allowed to move so much during a day, it’s a nice move, and one that is being noticed by traders and economists, and me! 
 
I also surprised at the strength of the Swiss Franc… They just recently got back to positive rates, it’s not like they are New Zealand and have 5% rates! But any time the franc sees buying like it has recently, it’a a sign that investors are nervous, and are seeking a safe harbor…  
 
The Brazilian real has been on the rally tracks recently, and just this week the real fell below 5.0, for the first time in a month of Sundays.. .Interest rates are high in Brazil, and I mean high at 12.25%, to combat thier own inflation… And those high rates are attracting investors… I’m just saying…
 
The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the Fed’s Beige Book, which is a combination of the regional banks reports on how the economy is doing in their neck of hte woods… This used to be a very watched piece of data, that now just flies under the radar each month, and gets very little notiice… 
 
To recap.. .The dollar got sold yesterday, but did fight back to win back 1 of hte 3 index points it had lost in the overnight markets yesterday… But it was sold, and Chuck thinks that the fact that it got sold was HUGE to investors and traders that want to get back into the water…  N. Korea does their own version of dedollarization…  And Chuck is not happy that the war in Ukraine could see escalation… And finally, China’s 1st QTR GDP was 4.5%… 
 
Before I head to the Big Finish today, I have a funny for you… This link will take you to a page and on the page will be a short video that you should click on to see how Banking is done… here’s the link; Watch “how the banking system works three stooges the 20 bucks i owe you” – LewRockwell
For What It’s Worth… I found this on Bloomberg, and its’ written by Stephen Jen, someone that I used to read his stuff all the time, but in recent times he had evaporated…  It’s about the dedollarization going on around the world, that a lot of analysts are ignoring… And it can be found here: De-Dollarization Is Happening at a ‘Stunning’ Pace, Jen Says – Bloomberg
 
Or, here’s your snippet: “The dollar is losing its reserve status at a faster pace than generally accepted as many analysts have failed to account for last year’s wild exchange rate moves, according to Stephen Jen.

The greenback’s share in global reserves slid last year at 10 times the average speed of the past two decades as a number of countries looked for alternatives after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered sanctions, Jen and his Eurizon SLJ Capital Ltd. colleague Joana Freire wrote in a note. Adjusting for exchange rate movements, the dollar has lost about 11% of its market share since 2016 and double that amount since 2008, they said.
“The dollar suffered a stunning collapse in 2022 in its market share as a reserve currency, presumably due to its muscular use of sanctions,” Jen and Freire wrote. “Exceptional actions taken by the US and its allies against Russia have startled large reserve-holding countries,” most of which are emerging economies from the so-called Global South, they said.
Jen is the former Morgan Stanley currency guru who coined the dollar smile theory.
 
Last year, Bloomberg’s gauge of the greenback surged as much as 16% as the conflict helped fuel a rise in global inflation that triggered widespread interest rate hikes which sank bond and currency markets alike. It finished the year up 6%.
Biden’s Dollar Weaponization Supercharges Hunt for Alternatives

Smaller nations are experimenting with de-dollarization while China and India are pushing to internationalize their currencies for trade settlement after the US and Europe cut Russian banks from the global financial messaging system known as SWIFT. There’s also concern the dollar may become a permanent political tool, or be used as a form of economic statecraft to put extra pressure on countries to enforce sanctions that they may disagree with.”

 
Chuck Again… Well, I think I was way ahead of the crowd in saying that the dedollarization would eventually come back to hurt the dollar… The pace this is going is unreal though… 
 
Market Prices 4/19/2023: American Style: A$ .6699, kiwi .6184, C$ .7443, euro 1.0941, sterling 1.2429, Swiss $1.1117, European Style: rand 18.2847, krone 10.5554, SEK 10.3311, forint 345.44, zloty 4.2467, koruna 21.4523, RUB 81.62, yen 134.85, sing 1.3371, HKD 7.8499, INR 82.23, China 6.8948, peso 18.13, BRL 4.9855, BBDXY 1,224.07, Dollar Index 102.03, OIL $79.40, 10-year 3.62%, Silver $24.75, Platinum $1,060.00, Palladium $1,616.00, Copper $4.04, and Gold… $1,972.70
 
That’s it for today, and this week, sorry about no Pfennig tomorrow, but I’ve got to be at the hospital bright and early in the morning… And then Friday I go right back there to see my oncologist, who hasn’t seen me for 4 months, and to tell you the truth, I miss her! Well, our Blues are playing Golf, instead of hockey, our Cardinals have started the year with a dud, but…. We still have our St Louis City SC team that’s in first place, and has scored the most goals of al lthe teams in the league, while being an expansion team! Day game at Busch Stadium today, and I’m not going! UGH! I tried, but couldn’t get any of my working friends to play hooky to go to the game with me… 🙁  It’s tough being the only retired guy that wants to go to day games! We’re in for a cold front to move through this weekend, and I won’t like it, but I’ll have to wear long pants! And sweatshirts! with hoods! YUCK!  The Stealers Wheel takes us to the finish line today with their great 70’s song: Stuck In the Middle With You…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please, pretty please with sugar on top, Be Good To Yourself!
 
Chuck Butler

 

It’s Tax Day!

April 18, 2023

Pfennig tradition calls for this recognition of Tax Day… 
 
Let me tell you how it will be

There’s one for you, nineteen for me
‘Cause I’m the taxman
Yeah, I’m the taxman
Should five percent appear too small
Be thankful I don’t take it all
‘Cause I’m the taxman

Yeah, I’m the taxman

 
those lyrics come from the Beatles… 
* Currencies & metals rally in the overnight markets
* A Patriot Act 2? 
Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! My poor beloved Cardinals, they seem to be so overmatched early this year… I remember grandson, Everett, telling me after spring Training that the Cardinals had won the Grapefruit League, with the best spring training record… He said, “That should be good for this year, right? ” I told him to not get too attached to their Spring Training record, as it doesn’t mean anything… After the next two games at home, the Cardinals go on a very long West Coast trip… That will either make or break them this year, in my humble country boy opinion!  I have an oldie but goodie today, the Drifters greet me this morning with their great song: Under The Boardwalk… 
Well, it was another day of wackiness in the markets yesterday… The dollar got bought once again, this time though, at a watered down pace, and Gold got sold again, brining it back below $2,000…  So… I think the paper traders (manipulators) did that just to show me how wrong I was… In case you don’t recall, I had made a point of saying that once Gold closed firmly over $2,000, that it would not be looking back any longer…But I was wrong, oh so wrong, I got caught in the rush hour, fellows started to shower you with love an affection, No wait! C’Mon Chuck, no time to be singing songs from the 60’s… I was wrong, and I apologize for that… I really was under the thought that once Gold started going higher, there was nothing that would stop it for some time to come… The price manipulators made sure that I was proven wrong! 
So, Gold lost $9.20 yesterday and Gold closed at $1,995.80, and Silver lost 32-cents to close at $25.10… The BBDXY gained 4 index points on the day… You know that just last Thursday the BBDXY had fallen to 1,216… And yesterday ti closed at 1,226…   On Thusday last week the euro was trading 1.1050, and yesterday it ended the day at 1.0931,,, So, the PPT’s protection of the dollar, worked, for at least a day or two… We’ll see just how far that goes, eh? 
The price of Oil lost a buck yesterday, and closed the day wtih an $81 handle, while the 10-year continued to get sold, and watch its yield rise to 3.59% yesterday… 
In the overnight markets last night… Well, we returned to the dollar selling after all the dust had settled on the brazen price manipulation last Friday… The BBDXY lost 3 index points overnight… The usual suspects of currency gains were in play, with the euro leading them through… Gold is up $9 in the early trading today, bringing Gold back above $2,000, and Silver is flat as a pancake (Head East)…  If the markets turn completely around from Friday, and begin to move in the direction they were moving before Friday, then the price manipulators will be exposed once again for their fraud… 
The price of Oil slid another buck last night and right now is barely hanging onto to an $80 handle… Demand or better, lack of demand still weighs on the price of Oil… But remember, the summer driving season is quickly coming toward us… I’m just saying…  I said something yesterday, that I thought would get more of a reaction… I said that the 10 year & 30 year Treasury Bonds would see their yields rise if the the Fed Heads do decide to pause, and let inflation sit at 5%, instead of 2%, (they said they would get it down to 2%) … Apparently, the Fed Heads are thinking that the people of the U.S. will be OK with inflation here, and interest rates here too… I’m not one of those that they called, were you? No, I didn’t think so… I won’t be happy with inflation here, and the costs of everything higher, but then I see things for what they truly are… And this is in the vocabulary of the 70’s… A Cop Out…  And I for one wouldn’t be proud of my country’s Central Bank for Copping Out…   
 I have to give credit to a reporter that reported the facts of the documents thing… He talked about how… well, I’ll let him tell you:” I can’t think of an incident, Tucker, that reveals more vividly the real function of our nation’s largest media corporations than what just happened here. If you’re a real journalist, somebody who’s devoted to transparency, shining a light on the most powerful government actors when they lie to the American people and informing the public, you would be celebrating this person who stepped forward and risked his security to show his fellow citizens that the government was lying about this incredibly important war with a nuclear-armed power, that we have actual troops deployed on the ground in Ukraine, there’s going to be no diplomatic resolution through at least 2023, that Zelensky is planning on using our weapons to strike deep into Russia — which we were told would never happen — risking escalation.”
 
No, it’s not right to steal documents, and then put them online… but, I do believe that most people would give him a pass for exposing the truth… Don’t you?  Edward Snowden, Wikileaks, etc. 
 
So…  it’s been reported by the number crunchers with the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the government is borrowing roughly $6 billion a day.  Let’s see… 6 x 365 = 2,190… Trillion!  Now that’s some spending, eh? And since we don’t know what the tax receipts will be yet, this is all deficit spending…  So, put that in your pipe and light it up! 
 
I found this on www.blacklistednewscom  “It’s estimated that the amount this country owes is now 130% greater than its gross domestic product (all the products and services produced in one year by labor and property supplied by the citizens).

According to the Committee for a Reasonable Federal Budget, the interest we’ve paid on this borrowed money is “nearly twice what the federal government will spend on transportation infrastructure, over four times as much as it will spend on K-12 education, almost four times what it will spend on housing, and over eight times what it will spend on science, space, and technology.”

In ten years, those interest payments will exceed our entire military budget.”

 
Chuck again… And to think that I began pointing out our growing debt back in 2002!… Twenty two years later, we as a country continue to rack up debt that will not ever be paid back…  The burdens on our kids and grandkids will be enormous… mark my words on that! 
 
Oh, but just one question that should follow that piece, and it is: Got Gold? 
 
The reason I keep saying that “Got Gold?” is I want to make certain that everyone I talk to is aware of the fact that our debt is unsustainable, and the future of our financial system is in question, and that owning Gold wil protect your investment portfolio from a meltdown… I’m just saying… And besides that… Gold is s store of wealth…  nothing more needs to be said… 
 
OK… how about some real strange news? Something to test our bite on… Dave Gonigam who is the editor of the 5 Minute Forecast, had this to say about the RESTRICT ACT that’s beeing bandied about in Congress right now, Take it away Dave!  “Ostensibly, the legislation would give the president the authority to ban the TikTok app. In reality, it grants the executive branch the authority to “enforce any mitigation measure to address any risk” to national security, broadly defined. Indeed the language is so broad that U.S. citizens could be designated as “foreign individuals” who pose a national security threat.”
 
Chuck again… So, basically we’re giving away more freedoms… no wonder Dave called it Patriot Act 2… 
 
The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had some housing data, and in it was the Home Builders Confidence report, which last month’s report showed Confidence had fallen below 50, at 44…  And this month’s report showed it came in at 45… So both are very negative outlooks for Home Builders…   Hmmmm…. 
 
Today’s Cupboard just has some more housing data, and a couple of Fed Heads out speaking… No biggie… 
 
To recap… the dollar continued to get bought yesterday, not on the same pace as Friday, but bought nonethelesss… Gold lost $9 on the day and fell back below $2,000, which made Chuck do a mea culpa, and Silver lost 32-cents yesterday… Chuck goes to bat for the Truth!   The U.S. is reported to be spending $6 Billion per day… Oh My! And now we have to deal with an ACT that may get passed in congress that would ban Tik Tok, and any web site that has damaging information about the Gov’t… A Patriot Act 2!  
 
For What It’s Worth…  OK… longtime readers know that I truly admire James Grant… His newsletter, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, is one of THE best letter out there… And any time I can get a free sniipet from his letter, I jump at the chance, and so it is that way today… This is about Gold, and it can be found here: Gold can protect investors from the Fed’s monetary mayhem – Grant’s Interest Rate Observer | Kitco News

 

 
Or, here’s your snippet:” Despite gold’s failed attempt to break to new all-times, the precious metal still has room to move higher, according to one market strategist.

In an interview with Kitco News, James Robertson, an analyst at Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, said that the potential for the Federal Reserve to end its most aggressive tightening cycle is creating a lot of volatility in financial markets and gold remains an attractive hedge against monetary policy mayhem.
He added that last month’s banking crisis with the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank along with the collapse of Credit Suisse, one of Europe’s largest banks, shows that pressure in the global economy is starting to build and the “rivets are starting to pop.”
“The monetary disorder that we have seen is far from over, and right now, we are just waiting to see how it will spread,” he said. “This will continue to support gold prices.”
Robertson’s bullish outlook on gold comes as the precious metal is holding support just above $2,000 Friday after falling from a 13-month high posted Thursday. Heading into the weekend, June gold futures last traded at $2,019 an ounce, down 1.77% on the day.
Robertson said that gold has room to move higher as Western retail investors are just starting to jump back into the gold market. Speculative positioning in gold remains below the August 2022 highs, even as bullish momentum has increased in recent weeks.

According to monthly data from the World Gold Council, March was the first time the gold market saw net monthly inflows into global gold-backed exchange-traded products ending ten months of consecutive outflows.

Chuck again… Ok, so that wasn’t James Grant himself speaking, but his right hand man is good as far as I’m concerned… 
Market Prices 4/18/2023: American Style: A$ .6742, kiwi .6220, C$ .7474, euro 1.0973, sterling 1.2438, Swiss $1.1159, European Style: rand 18.1446, krone 10.4438, SEK 10.2934, forint 338.76, zloty 4.2092, 
koruna 21.2981, RUB 81.58, yen 133.88, sing 1.3319, HKD 7.8499, INR 82.04, China 6.8765, peso 17.98, BRL 4.9433, BBDXY 1,223.19, Dollar Index 101.69, Oil $80.69, 10-year 3.57%, Silver $25.11, Platinum $1,075.00, Palladium $1,611.00, Copper $4.08, and Gold… $2,004.30
That’s it for today… Hopefully my beloved Cardinals can find a way back in the win column tonight! I fired up my Big Green Egg yesterday, and got all the junk out of it, and then smoked some Pork steaks, (they are popular in St.Louis only) and when I was finished the meat was falling off the bone… Yum Yum! This Saturday, I will cook for my oldest son’s water polo tournament… Chicken breasts and bratwurst… So sandwiches can be made and easily dealt with by the referees and coaches at the tournament… I’ll have the Big Green Egg working as a gril, and my Weber kettle both going at the same time… I’ve done this for a number of years now, so It’s old hat for me!  Today, I had my heart doctor make my appt for later in the day, so it wouldn’t interfere with writing! Aren’t you glad? HA! Well, The Climax Blues Bank take us to the finish line wih their song: Couldn’t Get It Right… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

A Bear Raid On Metals…

April 17, 2023

* Gold & Silver get whacked on Friday… 

* The IMF introduces a globalist currency.. 

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! WOW! I don’t mean to start the letter today with a raging coment about the Commerical Traders in metals, but I will… They brazenly took down Gold ( & Silver) on Friday, and it got very ugly… More on that later, but first… I went to my first StL City SC soccer game Saturday night. Major storms blew through the St. Louis area, tornados, Hail, damaging winds and tons of rain… Alex and I had made into the stadium before the shut the gates and didn’t allow anyone else in. We then spent the fist hour in the storm shelter, with hundres of other fans… Then the next hour we sat in the concourse and watched it pour… But then two hours after the orginal game start time, the game started. My seats are amazing! And the STL City SC team won big time! I got to meet up with good friends, Jack and Ty, but Frank was a late arrival and never made it to the stadium… I did have to stand a bit, during the game, but everytime my hip began to bark at me, I sat down so it wasn’t  big pain…  Billy Joel greets me this morning with his song: Stranger… 
So, I’m going to start today’s letter with a comment from Ed Steer… Take it away Ed! “I was disappointed, but not overly surprised to see that bear raid manifest itself yesterday…being Friday and all…plus the bearish setup in gold. As I mentioned further up, it’s my opinion that the rally in the DXY was as equally manufactured…especially between 8:30 a.m. and 11:05 a.m. EDT — and was used as cover for the commercial shorts of whatever stripe as they went about their business.

All of gold’s gains since Tuesday, plus a bit more, vanished yesterday — and it’s RSI trace is approaching market neutral. Almost all of silver’s gains since Tuesday have vanished as well” Ed Steer in his Saturday letter… 
So, Gold got sold to the tune of $36.10 and finished the week, just above $2,000, at $2,005.00, and Silver saw 49-cents off its value on Friday, and ended the week at $25.43… As Ed mentions above, the dollar was also manufactued upward, after falling all week, the BBDXY gained 5 index points on the day. The euro lost the 1.10 handle, and the rest of the lot came in much weaker to close the week.. .
I just have to say that I was leery of this happening, and then it did… The price manipulators made sure there were no short term profits taken, and they brazenly flauntered their short paper trades… Geez, I wish we had a Presdient, Congress, somebody to stop this from happening, but when, as I keep telling you, the Gov’t is behind this, then that’s not going to happen… 
So, all the gains in the currencies and metals that were booked before Friday last week, were wiped out in one day’s short paper trading… That just makes me sick! 
In the overnight markets last night…  There was a little more dollar buying but not much, as the BBDXY gained 1 index point overnight… The dollar strength isn’t holding back the Swiss franc… The franc has now moved into the $1.11 level!  Gold is up $3 in the early trading this morning… I can see Gold traders, sheepishly going into the market and placing buy orders this morrning and looking around and over their collectve shoulders for the men that  hang out in the dark alleys, and prey on Gold & Silver… 
The price of Oil remains steday with an $82 handle, while the 10-year Treasury’s yiedl has suddenly gotten the urge to combat inflation… The yield has risen from 3.38% last week to 3.54% this morning… I have to say that I truly believe that the 10-year and 30-year bond’s yields will react o a Fed pause by rising quickly… So… All you Fed Heads out there, have you thought about that? I doubt it they don’t have a clue as to what moves bonds… There’s not one former bond trader among them… 
Well, one of these days… I’ll laugh as the price manipulators are all hauled off to jail… I had just watched a video from Mike M. where he discusses the his thoguht that Gold is going to $8,000… Now, We’ve all heard these cries for $5,000, $8,000, 10,000 Gold, and the ATM in our head begins to explode… But seriously, how high do you think Gold or Silver would be at this point in our lives, IF there were no price manipulators? Think about all the times they’ve had their engineered takedowns, or just caps on high points of a day… I would say that we would be talking about Gold at least at $4,000, and Silver at $75… But, that’s all pie in the sky stuff, and it doesn’t do us any good to discuss it further… 
And the dollar… every time it seems the dollar is ready to go into a long term weak trend, the PPT comes in and makes any trader scared to sell dollars untl the pain is forgotten… I just shake my head in disgust, folks… I dont’ know what else to say about how dastardly these manipulations are… 
Well, how about the kid, I call him a kid, as he’s only 21, that got arrested for distributing those secret documents, that apparently aren’t secret any longer?  All I know is that if the St.Louis Prosecuter had his case, he would go scott free, with a wrist slap!  And that’s all I have to say about that!
So, we pick up the pieces and start over again… UGH! momentum just never gets a chance!   
On a lighter note…. Ahem…  get this information: “A new global currency just launched, but 99 percent of the global population has no idea what just happened.  The “Universal Monetary Unit”, also known as “Unicoin”, is an “international central bank digital currency” that has been designed to work in conjunction with all existing national currencies.  This should set off alarm bells for all of us, because the widespread adoption of a new “global currency” would be a giant step forward for the globalist agenda.  The IMF did not create this new currency, but it was unveiled at a major IMF gathering earlier this week…”
 
That was taken from “theeconmiccollapse.com” site… if you want to learn more about this move to a globalist agenda… Me? I’m still thinkin’ and wishin’ and hopin’ and prayin’ that I don’t see this happening in my lifetime… 
 
Have you ever read 1984 by George Orwell? Tha book scared the living daylights out of me… To think that a nation could end up like that? And then I compared it to what’s going on in the world today, and OMG!  
 
I was talking to good friend, Dennis Miller last week, and he said something to me that made the light bulb go on over my head… Let’s see how this works…  He had sent me a link to a letter that JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon wrote to his clients after the Bank failures…  In it were these bullet points from Dimon:
· We should want a system in which a bank failure does not cause undue panic and financial harm.

· We want proper transparency and strong regulations.
· Regulation, particularly stress testing, should be more thoughtful and forward looking.

· We should decide a priori what should stay in the regulatory system and what shouldn’t.

 
And that got me thinking about what would I ask Mr. Dimon if i were a reporter in the room when he gave that talk….  it would go something like this:  Ooh, ooh, call on me, call on me!  And Mr. Dimon would say, Ok, let’s give this Chuck Butler a shot at a question for me, go ahead… And I say, ” Mr. Dimon, sir, in looking at these bullet points, I get the feeling that you’re calling for the reurn of Glass/ Stegal, is that correct?”   Crickets… no reposonse from Jamie Dimon, and that leaves the crowd wanting…  But i really wanted to know what his answer would be! That’s not fair! He answered every other reporter’s questions!  
 
Well, I’m going to take his no answer as a Yes… he is in favor of bringing back Glass / Stegal….  
 
OK, that didn’t really happen, but… if it had, this is how I see it playing out.. 
 
The U.S. data Cupboard on Friday last week was a humdinger!  We saw the color of March Retail Sales, which were down or negative -1.0%…  What ever happened to the Spring Surge? Not happening this year, adn the folks at Zerohedge.com see it this way: “Looking at the components, the biggest drop by far was in gasoline stations which is the result of the drop in gas prices in March, which have however since rebounded strongly. Additionally, we saw a big drop in motor vehicle stores, furniture, clothing, food & beverage, general merchandise, and of particular note, electronics and appliance stores, which have had a very rough time since the pandemic. Also note the -10.3% drop in nominal retail sales for the category: when adjusted for inflation this means that retail sales for electronics are plunging more than 15% in real times.
Bottom line: the ‘lag’ from monetary policy, coupled with the hit to spending following the bank crisis is starting to catch up.”
We also saw Industrial Production, which was trumped up by the increased Utility Output to Heat the March Freeze up north… So I’m not buying the thought that the economy is just fine….   And above all the laughter at that last comment, the stupid Consumer Confidence for March showed an increase in confidence! Wait! What? Yes, apparently they only surveyed folks that have been living under rocks…   I’m just saying… 
 
I read this past weekend the  number of insurance derivatives that protect against a U.S. default, have hit reford amounts!   C’mon… you know how this game is played, and there will be a spedning increase in the 11th hour… But, if you really think about what a default is… one could argue that the U.S. has already been in default for years, as they have to issue new debt to pay the interest on the old debt…   
 
That thought is picking at needles in a haystack… but it is what it is… 
 
To recap… It was Black Friday for the currencies and metals last week… When Black Friday comes, I’ll stand down by the door, And catch the gray men when they Dive from the fourteenth floor…. Steely Dan… The price manipulators came into the markets with both guns blazin’ and they didn’t stop with metals, they included proping up the dollar, and all other sorts of devilry…   The IMF intorduced a Global currency….  Chuck’s spider sense says that they have done this with a globalsist thought in mind… Bas%^$#ds…  And overnight has been basically a dud… 
 
For What It’s Worth…  Ok, this article came to me from the good golks at GATA… And is about how Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, has finally realized that the sanctions that the U.S. has placed on Russia and other countries, may not have been such a good idea… And it can be found here: Yellen says sanctions may risk hegemony of US dollar | Al Arabiya English
Or, here’s your snippet: “Economic sanctions imposed on Russia and other countries by the US put the dollar’s dominance at risk as targeted nations seek out an alternative, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday.

“There is a risk when we use financial sanctions that are linked to the role of the dollar that over time it could undermine the hegemony of the dollar,” Yellen said on CNN.
“Of course, it does create a desire on the part of China, of Russia, of Iran to find an alternative,” she told the network’s Fareed Zakaria in an interview. “But the dollar is used as a global currency for reasons that are not easy for other countries to find an alternative with the same properties.”

The robust US capital markets and rule of law “are essential in a currency that is going to be used globally for transactions,” she added. “And we haven’t seen any other country that has the basic… institutional infrastructure that would enable its currency to serve the world like this.”

Chuck again… Well, she talks like a two handed economist, right? on one hand we have this and on the other hand we have that… Worthless dribble, from our Treasury Sec….. 
Market Prices 4/17/2023: American Style: A$ .6706, kiwi .6195, C$ .7483, euro 1.0976, sterling 1.2411, Swiss $1.1183, European Style: rand 18.1808, krone 10.3547, SEK 10.3386, forint 338.42, zloty 4.2171, koruna 21.2171, RUB 81.54, yen 134.04, sing 1.3314, HKD 7.8499, INR 81.97, China 6.8706, peso 18.01, BRL 4.9086, BBDXY 1,223.37, Dollar Index 101.64, Oil $82.11, 10-year 3.54%, Silver $25.40, Platinum $1,051.00, Palladium $1,503.00, Copper $4.09, and Gold… $2,008.64
That’s it for today… My beloved Cardinals could only gain a split of 4 games at home VS the Pirates… The Pirates don’t just roll over and let you scratch their bellies any longer! They are scrappy! I just can’t get over the experience at the brand spanking shining and new soccer park, besisdes the game was awesom, the fans wer awesome, the food was great, and the only thing that wasn’t good was the Damaging storms that came before the game and delayed the start over 2 hours! i had lots of fun with my youngest son, Alex… Many of you are longtime readers that may recall him sitting on my lap in 1998, and helping me write the Pfennig… Well, he’ll be 28 this June… Amazing, right? And he has a Doctorate in Physical Therapy… From what I hear, everyone loves Dr. Alex! Today is the Boston Marathon… It’s been 10 years since the horrific ending of the marathon…  Well, I’ve gone on too long today, it’s time…. The Strawbs take us to the finish line today with their great 70’s song: Autumn… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself
Chuck Butler

Opposites Rule The Day, Wednesday!

April 13, 2023

* Currencies & metals rally on Wednesday & overnight!

* Spend, Spend, Spend… The Deficit just keeps growing! 

Good Dayl… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! A modest 2-game win streak brings the Cardinals home to play the Pirates this weekend… Downtown St.Louis will be hoppin’  with a Cardinals game and a City STL SC soccer game going on… Parking will be crazy! I’ll have Kathy drop me and ALex off and then we’ll catch an Uber after the game… So, no partking problems for me! Another picture perfect, Chamber of Commerce day here yesterday, so I fired up the outside TV, and a couple of my friends came by to watch the game with me, it was good to see good friend Mike againn, for I hadn’t seen him since December before i left for the winter!   Golden Earring greets me this morning with their mega hit song: Radar Love… 
Well, Wednesday was not a wonderful day for the dollar… The BBDXY lost 5 index points yesterday! on a day that should have been good for the dollar, the opposites trading kicked in, and the dollar got sold instead. The euro ended the day within spittin’ distace of 1.10!  Gold pushed higher during the day yesterday, gaining $11 to close the day at $2,025.70.. And Silver pushed higher even more (percentage wise), gaining 44-cents on the day, to close firmly above $25 at $25.50… I was reading an article yesterday about how the writer thinks that the next test for Gold is to close out the month above $2,000, which it has never done, but if that were to happen, the writer thinks that Gold won’t be visiting sub-$2,000 again any time soon….. I thought that that idea played nicely in the sand box with my idea that once Gold closed above $2,000 it would be off to the races, and not be looking back…  
Speaking of opposites doing Gold a favor yesterday, Brian Lundein of the Gold Newsletter and the head of the New Orleans Investment Conference (The grandaddy of all conferences) had this to say in his weekly newsletter yesterday: “While I may roll my eyes at the dynamic that sends gold higher on higher inflation readings and tighter credit conditions, I won’t argue too vociferously against it. Because not only does that crazy logic send gold higher, but it also supports my prediction that the Fed will have to pause without getting inflation anywhere near its 2% goal.

 
As I noted in my Money Morning Live segment today, you couldn’t have written a better script for gold. Not only will the Fed be forced to halt its rate hikes with inflation remaining persistently high, but the Saudi-led oil production cuts beginning next month will pressure inflation higher.
 It’s going to be a great time to be positioned in gold, silver”
Chuck again…. Of course, the wolf is always at the door with Gold & Silver… The price manipulators lurk in the dark alleys, wating for the right time to take down the metals… I’m hoping that they have seen the light, that they are doing nothing but giving Russia and China buying opportunities that the U.S. sure doesn’t take advantage of!  
The price of Oil bumped higher by $2 again on Wednesdsy, ending the day trading with an $83.00 handle… Damn the lack of demand, eh?  And the 10-year’s yield saw some downard movement, and buying of the bond will do, and it ended the day at 3.40%… 
In The overnight markets last night…. There was some follow up of the dollar selling, and this morning the BBDXY has lost 2 more index points to trade 1, 220… Gold is up a whopping $29 in the early trading today, and is looking forward, taking no prisoners, today… Silver is up 33-cents this morning, so, unless the price manipulaters get their panties all bunched up and decide to enter the market, this is going to be a good day for the anti-dollar asset classes… The price of Oil slipped a buck overnight, and trades this morning with a $82 handle… And the 10-year just keeps getting bought, as its yield has dropped to 3.38%… 
The best performing currencies ovenight include the A$, kiwi, BRL, forints, euros, and Swiss francs… with the Swiss Franc the winner, winner chicken dinner!  You know, I did point out to you some weeks ago that the Hungarian forint was moving in the right direction, I’m just saying… 
The Pfennig is a little later this morning, as I just couldn’t answer the bell! But something inside of me has changed… I don’t feel guilty any longer when I oversleep… I guess that means my mind and body has finally admitted that I’m retired!  
The Fed’s/ Cabal’s/ Cartel’s Meeting Minutes yesterday reall upset the stock jockeys… These guys were looking for signs in the minutes that would tell them that the FOMC is ready to pause at the next meeting in May… But that wasn’t to be.. instead, the FOCM minutes outlined a mild recession that they see coming, and that inflation is not going away, so another rate hike is believed to be in the cards…  Just how much of  rate hike will there be?  The pundits that follow the Fed Heads say thqt 25 Basis Points will be the hike in May… But I’m not a regular pundit, here, and I think if would behoove the FOMC to hike 50 Basis Points, and then they could say that in June they will look at it again to see if a pause is needed… Rather than hiking 25 Basis points in May, and then again in June, just go the 50 Basis Points in May! And if you feel the need to hike more in June, so be it, but most likely things in the economy and stock market will be in shambles by then, and you’ll want to pause in June… I’m just saying… 
Well, leave it up to the French…. I’m not stereotyping anyone here, just a saying… OK?  Alright now that we’ve extablished that, what is it that you’re talking about here Chuck? Chinese leader, Xi, and French leader, Macron, met last week, and Marcron didn’t endear himself to anyone in Washington D.C. with his comments. He later backtracked those comments to make them sound like he was misquoted, and that he supports the U.S.   Ok, so in my strange mind, here’s the phone call Macron received from an anyonmous called from Washington D.C. …. “Hello? Yes, it’s me, Presdient Macron, who is this calling?  Don’t worry about who I am, Macron, just know that I am your worst nightmare!  You know those words you spoke about the U.S.? Well, if you don’t backtrack those words, we’ll freeze all French assets in the U.S.,and throw you out of SWIFT, just like we did to Russia… Got it? Oui, oui, I’ve got it, and just so you know, I was misquoted… I don’t care… just do as I ordered or France will be in a bind… .   hang up…. 
Speaking of worst nightmares… The federal budget deficit reached $1.1 trillion in the first six months of fiscal 2023, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated in a report released Monday…. That’s way ahead of last year’s Budget Deficit, so that means this year could be a record year deficit… Of course, the Budget deficits get rolled into the National Debt, that’s already $31.6 Trillion! Spend, spend, spend, and worry about paying for your expenditures later, and then kicking the can down the street.. This game has been played for far too long… And one day, Alice…. I’m just saying… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday, had the above mentioned FOMC meeting minutes, but the thing that got everyone riled up was the printing of the stupid CPI… Ok, it pains me to report this data, but the markets still genuflut in its presence…  So, month to month inflation increased .1%… but annually it fell to 5%… Core CPI annually rose to 5.6%…  So, confused? Yeah, I know, me too… These reports have been through the gauntlet, and when they come out, they make no sense whatsoever! 
Just know that inflation is sticky, will remain sticky, and if the FOMC decides to pause their rate hikes, inflation will get evern stickier!  And never reach the Fed head’s goal of 2% inflation… So much for their credibility… I have something on that (fed Credibility in the FWIW section today, you won’t want ot have missed that!)
Today’s Cupboard has the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and in addtion to that, we’ll also see the color of the March PPI (wholesale inflation)… Remember we see rising inflation here, first… 
To recap… The dollar got sold yesterday, and the BBDXY lost 5 index ponts on the day…   The euro is within spittin’ distance of 1.10, and Gold gained $11 while Silver gained 44-cents!   it was truly another day of opposites in the markets, but that’s how they work these days, and so we just have to roll with it… Chuck plays a game with a phone call to Frence Leader Macron… It’s how he sees it happened! 
For What It’s Worth… Good friend, Dennis Miller sent me this article from Pam and Russ Martens of wallstreetonparade.com  and it tells a story of a loss of credibility of the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, that’s now falling into a loss of credibility for U.S. banks! And the article, while long, but well worth the read, can be found here: A Growing Lack of Confidence in the Fed Is Spilling Over into a Lack of Confidence in U.S. Banks (wallstreetonparade.com)
Or, here’s your snippet: “A Growing Lack of Confidence in the Fed Is Spilling Over into a Lack of Confidence in U.S. Banks

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: April 5, 2023
Millions of Americans are beginning to ask themselves this question: Is the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) a competent central bank or a terminally compromised regulator that simply does the bidding of Wall Street’s mega banks to the peril of average Americans and the U.S. economy? Millions of other Americans have already made up their minds on this point.
These persistent doubts about an institution with an $8.8 trillion balance sheet – that is backstopped by the U.S. taxpayer – is very bad for confidence in the U.S. banking system, especially when the Fed pivots from one banking bailout to the next. (What was the size of the Fed’s balance sheet prior to its serial bailouts? On December 26, 2007, the Fed’s balance sheet stood at $929 billion. It has soared by 847 percent in just over 15 years of serial bailouts.)
Let’s look at the evidence that’s been stacking up against the Fed since the financial crisis of 2008 – the worst economic collapse in America since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
In response to the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed introduced a hodge podge of emergency lending programs to Wall Street’s biggest banks, as well as cranking out its traditional discount window loans. While the Fed released general details of what the programs were created to do, it did not release the names of the Wall Street firms that were doing the bulk of the borrowing, or the sums borrowed by each institution.
A tenacious investigative reporter at Bloomberg News, the late Mark Pittman, filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request with the Fed for the names of the banks, the amounts borrowed and the terms. Under the law, the Fed had to respond in 20 business days. The Fed stalled Pittman for six months, leading to the parent of Bloomberg News, Bloomberg LP, filing a lawsuit against the Fed in the Federal District Court in Manhattan in November 2008. Bloomberg won that suit. The Fed then appealed the decision to the Second Circuit Court of Appeals. A large number of other mainstream media outlets and groups filed an Amicus brief in the matter, in support of the release of the information.
The Fed also lost at the Second Circuit. The Fed was, apparently, too embarrassed to take the case to the U.S. Supreme Court, because President Obama’s acting Solicitor General, Neal Katyal, planned to file a brief contrary to the Fed’s position, so a group called The Clearing House Association LLC, made up of some of the very same Wall Street banks that were being bailed out by the Fed, filed their own appeal with the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court declined to hear the case in March of 2011, leaving the decision of the Second Circuit standing.

The financial reform legislation known as the Dodd-Frank Act (which was signed into law by President Obama on July 21, 2010) had forced the Fed to release the transaction details of its seven emergency lending facilities in December of 2010. When the Supreme Court declined to hear the court case, the Fed finally released the discount window transactions in March 2011.”

 
Chuck Again….The article gives many more examples of how the Fed Heads have ruined their credibility, so if you want to know them all, click the link above, and read away! 
 
Market Prices 4/13/2023: American Style: A$ 6753, kiwi 6271, C$ .7468, euro 1.1034, sterling 1.2521, Swiss $1.1254, European Style: rand 18.1068, krone 10.3774, SEK 10.3001, forint 339.25, zloty 4.2004, 
koruna 21.0992, RUB 81.77, yen 132.67, sing 1.3233, HKD 7.8500, INR 81.85, China 6.8753, peso 18.09, BRL 4.9314, BBDXY 1,220.98, Dollar Index 101.14, Oil $82.90, 10-year 3.38%, Silver $25.91, Platinum $1,004.00, Palladium $1,550.00, Copper $4.09, and Gold… $2,045.10
That’s it for today and this week… Next week is chock-full-o-doctor appts, so I have that going for me! I’ll let you know my schedule for the Pfennig on Monday… I think now that only Thursday’s letter will not be sent as I know for sure I’ll be at the hospital for a check up… no scan, at least not now… I’m still leery of those scan machines even though I know they didn’t cause my anaphalaxis shock back in December… I just have bad memorie of that day in the scanner, when I had to start banging on it and yelling for them to get me out of there, that something was wrong… And something was wrong indeed! When I see my oncologist next week, I’m sure she will want to get me scheduled for a new scan… UGH!   Well, same gig as last year when I came home from my winter home… I had gained 20 lbs last year, and I gained 20 lbs again this year!  Too much of the good life I guess, eh? Now I have to be diligent and get those gained lbs off! The Marshall Tucker Band take us to the finsih line today with their great 70’s song: 24 Hours At A Time….  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Fantastico Friday tomorrow, and all the while keep Being Good To Yourself! 
 
Chuck Butler

Are We Going Back To ZIRP?

April 12, 2023

* currencies & metals rally on Tuesday

* Looking at the stupid CPI all wrong… 

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! This is getting serious folks… The Cardinals starting pitchers are just plain awful… This is not what I saw in Spring Training, but then, is it just Spring Training… But.. the bats came alive last night and the Cardinals rallied for a 9-6 win… Maybe this team can be like the 75 Big Red Machine, who didn’t have any great starters, but their bats could outslug any team… The day here yesterday was picture perfect… Can’t say anymore about that!  I’ll be heading to City field this Saturday, for my first game in my seats… Youngest son Alex will go with me, I hope I can keep up with him!  I think I’ll be able to see good friends, Frank Trotter, Ty Keough, Jack Stapleton, at the game!  It’s a real barn burner at the game I’m told, so I’m excited to go! ELO (Electric Light Orchestra) greets me this morning with their great song done live: Can’t Get You Out Of Head… 
Well, when I left you yesterdy morning, the dollar was getting sold, and the BBDXY was down 3 index points… and it looked as if there would be carry over to the U.S. markets, but that didn’t happen, and the rest of the day was just back and forth trading, with the BBDXY ending the day down the same 3 index points it was down that morning… Gold did have a good day though, and gained $12.20 to climb back above $2,000, at $2,004.70… And Silver gained 18-cents to climb back over $25 at $25.14…  the price Oil got a bump yesterday, and gained $2 on the day to end hte day with an $81 handle…  The 10-year’s yield stayed in a range at 3.43$… 
Ive got to say that I think the dollar has just about had its run of the roost… It may have a day or two where it get bought becuase the Gov’t wants it be bought, but other than that, I really think that the markets have resigned themselves into thinking that the Fed Heads rate hikes are just about over, and being forward thinking.. that leaves them with no other choice but to sell dollars… A lot the economy has been like a Chinese water torture, slow… slow… and slower, but it’s arriving nonetheless, so if you’re cut from the same cloth as I am, you’ll be looking to buy a currency soon… or build your Gold & Silver chest… I’m just saying… 
In regards to that thought of mine…. here’s something I pulled from Bloomberg this morning: ‘“We expect the US dollar to weaken as the US growth and interest-rate premium relative to the rest of the world erodes in the coming months,” Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management”
In the overnight markets last night… It was a big fat dud… There was no movement in the dollar overnight, and we start today with the BBDXY at 1,228…  Gold is up $4 in the early trading today, and Silver is flat… I’m still of the thought that no matter what the price manipulators decide to do, Gold is ready to move upward, and that taking out $2,000 level was key…  And the dollar? I think it’s hanging on by the skin of its teeth…  So, do with those thoughts as you wish… I know what I’ll be doing, but you?  Hmmm..    The price of Oil remained above the $81 handle last night, and the 10-year is range trading still this morning at 3.45%… 
I was reading an article on Bloomberg this morning that really had me shivering with fear that the Central Banks of the world would return to zero interest rates, once this nasty inflation abates… Are you kidding me?  Isn’t that stupid zero interest rate policy the cause of our nasty inflation now?  I shake my head in total disgust that Central Banks would even think of doing that again…   here’s a snippet of the article on Bloomberg.com that I’m referring to: “The International Monetary Fund has caused some consternation with the long-range forecasts in its April World Economic Outlook. It predicts that once the current bout of nasty global inflation abates, interest rates will return close to zero. If the IMF is on the money with this big-picture call, it will shred whatever is left of central bankers’ credibility.”
 
Good friend, Dennis Miller, sent me a link to an article yesterday, and was asking me quesitons about it… Here’s a snippet of the article that he sent me: “The reality is that the 25 largest domestically-chartered commercial banks in the U.S. have been bleeding deposits for most of the past 12 months, shedding more than $700 billion in deposits between April 13, 2022 and March 29, 2023. To put that in even sharper focus, all U.S. domestically-chartered commercial banks have lost a total of $970 billion during the same time period. That means that the largest 25 banks account for a whopping 72 percent of the plunge in deposits over the past year.”
 
His premise was that this wouldn’t be a big deal becuase the Gov’t would just bail them out if push came to shove… And I thought, well, if all of these banks had problems at the same time, there’s no way the Gov’t could bail them all out at the same time, and if they tried, we would have the biggest fiasco on earth… The financial system that we’ve all come to know would fail to exist, and the introduction of digital bank acounts would come to a theater near you! 
 
The U.S. Data Cupboard has something for us today, besides Fed Head speakers out in the field… The stupid CPI will print for March… i don’t care much for what it will print because the Gov’t added so many hedonic adjustments to the data that it’s no recognizable any longer! So, whatever it prints, it doesn’t make a bit of matter to me… To the markets, those dolts take the CPI as if it came from the Bible… Idiots all of them… and people pay these guys to make decisions? Give me a break!  
 
All the stock jockeys will be like a kid on rollercoaster, with their arms in the air, and screaming with delight, that inflation, per the stupid CPI, eased a bit in March… I’ve got my arms in the air, and I don’t care!  Go for it you idiots… inflation is not going away that easily… And no matter what hedonic adjustments the BLS adds to the CPI to make it look like it’s going away, it’s not… 
 
To recap… The dollar got sold on Tuesday, but there was no follow thru in the overnight markets… Gold has added $16 after Monday’s engineered takedown… So, just proves you can’t keep a good asset class down!  The IMF thinks Central Banks will go back to ZIRP once inflation is tamed…  And I say, you’ve got to be kidding me!  Banks are bleeding deposits… This is getting very interesting, folks… 
 
For What It’s Worth… Boy or boy, do I have a FWIW worthy article for you today… This is about secret progam run by the BIS, and how it will take over everything and only deal in CBDC’s (digital currencies)… And it can be found here: Project Icebreaker: The Beginning Of A One World Digital Currency System? (blacklistednews.com)
Or, here’s your snippet: “In my investigations of various CBDC programs and how quickly they are progressing I came across an interesting program called “Project Icebreaker” being run by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). For those not aware, the BIS is a globalist institution with a clandestine past known as the “central bank of central banks.” It is the policy making hub for most of the central banks in the world. If you ever wondered how it was possible for so many national central banks to operate in tandem with each other instead of acting in the interests of the countries they reside in, the BIS is the answer. In other words, organizations like the Federal Reserve are not necessarily loyal to Americans or to American officials, they are loyal to the dictates of the BIS.

The BIS is at the forefront of the movement towards the adoption of CBDCs. They have been funding a vast array of projects to test and refine CBDC technology and as of this year they estimate that at least 81 central banks around the world are in the midst of introducing digital currency systems.

Project Icebreaker in particular grabbed my attention for a number of reasons. The BIS describes the project as a foreign exchange clearing house for Retail CBDCs (retail CBDCs are digital currencies used by the regular public and businesses), enabling the currencies to be traded from country to country quickly and efficiently. This is accomplished using the “Icebreaker Hub”, a BIS controlled mechanism which facilitates data transfers for an array of transactions while connecting banks to other banks.

 

nvestigating further I realized that the Icebreaker Hub in theory functions almost exactly like the SWIFT payment system used currently by governments and international banks. More than 10,000 financial institutions in 212 different countries use the SWIFT network to transfer funds overseas for their clients; it is an incredible centralization bottleneck that gives its shareholders considerable power.

As a point of reference, after the start of the war between Ukraine and Russia, the expulsion of Russia from the SWIFT network was used as a weapon in an attempt to crash the Russian economy. Russia has found ways around using SWIFT because of their trade relationships with major economies like China and India, but some damage has still been done to their financial structure.
Consider this, however – What if all monetary transactions were centralized through CBDCs and the BIS controlled the hub in which all retail CBDCs are exchanged globally? This is what Icebreaker is.

Now imagine that you operate a business that relies on overseas transactions; say you need to pay manufacturers in Vietnam or Taiwan to produce your products. With CBDCs in place you will most likely be completely dependent on a system similar to the Icebreaker Hub to move than digital money to Vietnamese banks and into the accounts of your manufacturers. Say officials at the BIS, for whatever reason, decide they don’t like you and they initiate Russian-style sanctions denying your access to the hub. Your business is now dead.”

 
Chuck Again… longtime readers of the Pfennig know that I absolutely adore a clandestine theory, story, idea… And this fills the bill for me! C”mon you didn’t really think that once the U.S. introduced their digital currency that the rest of the world would just bow to them and say, ok? 
 
Market Prices 4/12/2023: American Style: A$ .6672, kiwi .6192, C$ .7415, euro 1.0922, sterling 1.2406, Swiss $1.1086, European Style: rand 18.4333, krone 10.5025, SEK 10.3905, forint 344.42, zloty 4.2693, 
koruna 21.4405, RUB 82.40, yen 133.70, sing 1.3310, HKD 7.8500, INR 82.08, China 68830, peso 18.12, BRL 5.0028, BBDXY 1,228.44, Dollar Index 102.10, Oil $81.46, 10-year 3.46%, Silver $25.15, Platinum $1,009.00, Palladium $1,449.00, Copper $3.99, and Gold… $2,008.15
 
That’s it for today… I received a notice from Omar Ayles from the Gold Charts R Us fame yesterday… He’s going to be at the Las Vegas Money Show later this month… That got me thinking about all the shows that I used to attend and speak at… I have a coat rack that I always hung my lanyard with the show, on it, and through the years, I’ve got quite a collection of lanyards with shows info on them… When I left EverBank, I took my coat rack with me, and it sits in my basement right next to my writing desk… My favorite trip through the years was Vancouver…  But San Francisco wasn’t far behind… So, if you go to the Las Vegas Money Show, raise a glass to my long time there…  Wild Cherry tqkes us to the finish line today with their song: Play That Funky Music   I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself! 

A One And Done For Dollar Buying…

April 11, 2023

* Currencies & metals get sold on Monday

* dollar gets sold in the overnight markets… 

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! A Chamber of Commerce Day here in my little river town yesterday, I stayed outside all day until dinner time… I sit out back at our house, and no one sees me, I and I dont’ see anyone either. When we first bulit our house the back yard wasn’t finished, and so we sat out front, and talked to the neighbors as they walked by… We used to call them “mailbox parties”… During the plandemic I would invite as many people that could fit on my driveway to come, bring their lawn chair, and sit outside to talk face to face, which to me was far better than those darn Zoom get togethers! Maybe I should change and start sitting out front again, just to at least wave to neighbors! The Yardbirds greet me this morning with their song: For Your Love… 
Well, I told you yesterday that Monday looked like it was going to be an ugly day for the currencies and metals, and that’s exactly what it turned out to be… At no time during the day was there any sign of a rally in either asset class. The BBDXY gained 5 index points on the day… .Gold lost $16.10 to close at $1,992.50, and Silver lost 11-cents to close at $24.96…  There was no rhyme or reason for the selling in the metals, and since it was such a large downward move, it smelled like, it walked like, it talked like, price manipulation…  
The price of Oil finally gave up the $80 handle yesterday, as it slipped to a $79 handle… Demand, or more fittingly, lack of demand, seems to be on the minds of Oil traders… We are coming into the summer driving season, where the demand usually picks up (sans 2020) …  So, hopefully, the Oil traders are taking that fact into the equation when they are pricing Oil…  And the 10-year Treasury’s yield bumped higher to 3.40%, no biggie… just a little bump up… 
In the overnight markets last night… The dollar went back on the selling block… now it really appears to me to be price manipulation yesterday, beause there was no follow up… Hmmm…  b83*%$^&ds  The BBDXY lost 3 index points overnight, and Gold is up $8 in the early trading today, with Silver flat as a pancake (Head East)… No change in the price of Oil, and the 10-year’s yield is 3.41% this morning…  
How long do we have to be subjected to these price manipulators? It’s just not right, that they are allowed to do what they do, which brings me back to my original theory that the price manipulators are given the green light to proceed with their short paper trades, by the U.S. Gov.  They need to protect the dollar somehow, and this is the battle they’ve chosen… 
It’s all going to came back an bite the U.S. Gov’t in the rear… Why? Well, in my mind, the U.S. keeps giving the wink and nod to the JPMorgans to bring Gold down, thus giving the likes of China and Russia great buying opportunities, to amass large quantitites of Gold… And one day, he who has the Gold will rule…  I’m just saying… 
I  got to thinking yesterday about something that I talked about previously, and that is the refinancing of our debt at higher rates…  I do believe that I saw a HUGE amount of Treasuries coming due in 2025… They will have to be rolled into new bonds, with higher yields… That means more of the U.S.’s tax receipts will go toward financing our debt… Now, in the voice of the church lady, “Isn’t that special?”…
 But before then, we’ll have Corporate debt beginning to come due… and that, well, will bring about a lot of defaults, but don’t let that thought get in the way of a stock rally!  Can you tell I was being facetious?    Well, I was….  all these things will lead us to a recession that’s not going to only last 2 months…  Wil that be a bad thing? Well, for some it will be, but for the economy, it’s just what is needed…  I’ll lget Bill Bonner explain:
“Things that are out of whack have a way of getting back into whack.’ This is just another way of saying that there is a ‘normal’ state of affairs…and that when they go too far afield, it’s a fairly good bet that they will soon be headed home. Economists call it ‘regression to the mean;” it’s one of the most powerful forces in finance.

And now, the US economy needs to back up…it needs to go ‘back into whack.’  The Fed’s negative (below inflation) rates affected almost every financial transaction in the whole economy. Low mortgage rates caused a bubble in housing…and commercial real estate. They also caused a huge boom in borrowing – household, corporate, and government. They financed businesses that never should have been started…and allowed zombie enterprises to squander billions in real capital. They helped the feds fund programs that never should have made it to the drawing board…much less to the launching pad…made it possible for them to give pensions, grants, loans, and stimmies that they couldn’t afford.”

 
Chuck again…  Thanks to Bill Bonner for that piece… his newsletter can be found here: Back Into Whack – by Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman (substack.com) 
 
I’ve been watching the Aussie dollar (A$), and it just can’t seem to stop stepping on its own feet… The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has halted rate hikes for now to asess the situation with inflation, and that has some money managers thinking the A$ is on the way down… But not so fast Tim!   I found this on Bloomberg this morning: “Real-money investors are at odds with analysts on the outlook for the Australian dollar this year, and data this week may provide the next cue for the currency.

The Aussie has lagged most of its Group-of-10 peers this year, losing 2.5% versus the greenback. The decline has come against a backdrop of US banking turmoil, falling Treasury yields and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to pause its rate hikes to assess the outlook.

However, this is not stopping researchers from predicting the Aussie to strengthen, forecasting the currency will end the year at 72 US cents per dollar, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. ANZ Banking Group Ltd. predicts it may even rise to 75 cents.”

 
 Chuck Again… The A$ an kiwi have alway had a special place in my heart, as they were the first two currencies I ever really tracked and was told they were too small to deal with, but I persisted, and we began trading them, and they became our flagship currencies for commodity currencies…   
 
The U.S. Data Cupboard today still is lacking, and won’t get with the swing of things until tomorrow, and even then it will still be lacking of sorts… The stupid CPI will print tomorrow, along with the FOMC Meeting Minutes from their last meeting… I wonder if the minutes will have the names of the Fed Heads that voted for a 50 Basis Point rate hike?  
 
To recap… Monday was a bad, ugly day for the currencies and metals… There was no rhyme or reason for the selling, so Chuck believes it was price manipulation… Chuck is concerned about all the debt Gov’t and Corp that will be coming due, and needed to be rolled over at higher rates…. Defaluts… There I said it!  The Data Cupboard is lacking again today, and Chuck is rooting for the A$! 
 
For What It’s Worth… This article came to me from longtime reader Bob… And it’s about how the U.S. is going to crackdown on nations that aren’t complying with the Russian sanctions, and….  more…  This can be found here; Treasury Officials Planning EU and Central Asia Extortion Trip to Target Countries Evading Western Sanctions Against Russia – The Last Refuge (theconservativetreehouse.com)
Or, here’s your snippet: “The United States Treasury Dept is planning to send officials to key parts of the globe to act as enforcers for western sanctions against Russia. Essentially, it’s a blackmail and extortion tour, where Liz Rosenberg and Brian Nelson will visit non-compliant nations and central Western banking hubs to threaten foreign nations against continued noncompliance.

Whether any nation complies with the pressure campaign threats is still unknown. However, against the backdrop of various geopolitical alliances now cleaving the global economy, and with a larger network of non-western nations now forming their own trade partnerships without regard for Washington DC opinion, the effort to draw “with us” or “against us” lines could backfire.

Treasury officials Liz Rosenberg and Brian Nelson — specialists in sanctions and terrorist financing — will travel to Europe this month to meet with leaders of financial institutions in Switzerland, Italy and Germany. They plan to share intelligence on potential sanctions evaders and to warn of the potential penalties for failure to comply with international sanctions.

Rosenberg will also make a stop in the former Soviet republic of Kazakhstan to urge the country’s private businesses not to provide material or intelligence support to the Kremlin. Earlier this year, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Kazakhstan to pledge U.S. support for its independence and to stress the importance of respect for “sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence.” (read more)
Chuck again….   I can hear these gangstas saying….. “Nice country you got there…. it’d be a shame if anything happened to it.”   
 Market Prices 4/11/2023:  American Style: A$ .6623, kiwi .6200, C$ .7398, euro 1.0912, sterling 1.2427, Swiss $1.1049, European Style: rand 18.3159, krone 10.5792, SEK 10.4653, forint 344.14, zloty 4.2868, koruna 21.4873, RUB 82.15, yen 133.23, sing 1.3321, HKD 7.8499, INR 82.12, China 6.8843, peso 18.15, BRL 5.0669, BBDXY 1,228.80, Dollar Index 102..15, Oil $79.57, 10-year 3.41%, Silver $24.96, platinum $997.00, Palladium $1,434.00, Copper $4.01, and Gold… $2,000.35
That’s it for today…  my oh my, the Cardinals pitching is worse than all the prognostications said they were! This is supposed to be a pennant Contending team, but with pitching like we’ve seen in the first 10 games, that’s a hope and a prayer, at best… But then it is early, only 10 games into a 162 game season, so Carinals fans can hole onto that, and hope for a turnaround… Funny thing happened on the way to the forum for our Blues… Ever since they were eliminated from the playoffs, they’ve played better… So… the Cardinals start the fist 10 games at 3-7… not a mountain to climb, but a small hill to climb to get bsck to .500…   My cold is still holding on… My wife had it for a day last week, and then it was gone! Darn chemo takes me longer to heal… So, it’s 10 days now, should be gone by Friday!   Procol Harum takes us to the finish line today with their song: Conquistador… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself! 
Chuck Butler

The dollar Fights Back!

April 10, 2023

* currencies & metals start the week getting sold

* Ready for a James Bond Thriller? 

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Easter Monday that is… not exactly a good weekend for my beloved Cardinals who only only won 1 of 3 in Milwaukee… But yesterday was an absolute beautiful day here in my little river town. The sky was an umbrella blue all day, and me and my oldest son, Andrew, sat outside and listened to the game so we could enjoy the beautiful day. Andrew was feeling a little sore, as he had particapated in an Alumni water polo game on Saturday. Water Polo is such a demanding game, physically, and he was reminded of that!  Supertramp greets me this morning with their great song: Hide In Your Shelll… (one of my all-time faves!) 
The markets, for the most part, were closed last Friday, to celebrate Good Friday. The bond market was open, but most participants were not taking any positions long or short on strict instructions from the senior traders, who had ventured off to the hamptons for the long weekend… The BBDXY went untouched on the day and ended the week at 1,225…  Gold ended the week at $2,007.60, after losing $12.40 on Thursday. Silver closed the week at $24.97, after losing 7-cents on Thursday.. There wasn’t much going on Friday, and so it eneded up a “nothing day”… The price of Oil ended the week trading with an $80 handle, while the 10-year Treasury’s yield saw more buying, and it ended the week at 3.47%
The bond boys sure are taking a risk here.. they are taking a posiiton that the Fed Heaes have run the gauntlet of rate hikes, and have come to an end… I think they are barking up the wrong tree here, and that the FEd Heads will indeed hike rates again when they meet in June…. But that’s just me… Thinking… and probably will be right!
In the overnight markets last night… It’s smells bad… The dollar is getting bought, and the BBDXY has gained 6 index points! Gold and Silver are getting whacked (again!) and the whole day seems like it’s going to circle the bowl at any minute now. The price of Oil is steady Eddie with an $80 handle, and the 10-year’s yield continues to drop, with it trading this morning at 3.38%…  The spread between the 10-year and the 30-year bond has inverted even more folks… I’m just pointint that out… 
I have nothing else for you today… this is supposed to be a holiday for me! HA!   The one thing that keeps coming up on the newswires was reported by Reuters: “Classified documents that appeared online, with details ranging from Ukraine’s air defenses to Israel’s Mossad spy agency, have US officials working to identify the leak’s source. The breadth of topics addressed in the documents suggests they may have been leaked by an American rather than an ally.”   
 
Doesn’t that sound like the plot from a James Bond movie? I’ll leave that there…
 
Last Friday was the Jobs Jamboree, and a jamboree it was! The BLS reported that there were 236,000 jobs created in March, and, are you ready for this? The BLS didn’t add any jobs out of thin air last month!  I guess the surveys were good enough for the propeller heads at the BS, I mean BLS…  The Average Hourly earnings were up .3%, so at least somebody out there got a raise!    The other piece of data that printed on Friday was Consumer Credit (read debt)… The total debt was less than it was in Feb, as it printed at $15.3 Billlion… The consumers really ran up the credit card debt in March… The revolving debt grew at 5% in March… 
 
Think about that for a minute… credit card interest is running about 17%… And debt figures in credit cards are growing at 5%…  That’s a lot of debt for consumers to have to deal with… But they’re all adults, and I’m sure they have a handle on their finances… so what, me worry? 
 
And here’s a headline that was buried in Bloomberg… The Chinese yuan replaces the dollar as the most transacted currency in Russia…   That reminded me of my old explanation about the Chinese currency… The official name of the Chinese Currency is the renminbi, the slang name for it is the yuan (like dollars/ buck) , and the media always uses the slang name, yuan,  becuase it easier for them to type and say! 
 
This week’s Data Cupboard offerings are lacking until we get to Wednesday… 
 
To recap… The dollar ended the week flat, but in the overnight markets last night, the dollar buying went into a frenzy, with the BBBDXY up 6 index points this morning… UGH! Gold is off $17 to start the week, and has slipped back below the $2,000 level… There’s not much going on as Friday and today is a holiday for a lot of the country… 
 
For What It’s Worth…  well, with nothing going on, the pickins’ are slim for FWIW article today, but thank goodness I found one that’s worthy… This is about how Texas is looking to create a gold backed digital currency, and it can be found here: Texas moves to create gold-backed digital currency | Kitco News  
 
Or, here’s your snippet: “As lawmakers in the U.S. introduce bills pushing back against the creation of a U.S.-dollar-based central bank digital currency (CBDC), Texas is opting to go a different route with the creation of a state-issued, gold-backed digital currency.

Based on the text of Senate Bill 2334, which was introduced by state Senator Bryan Huges (R), and House Bill 4903, which was introduced by state Representative Mark Dorazio (R), the legislators are looking to require the state comptroller to establish a digital currency that is fully backed by gold and fully redeemable in cash or gold.
“The comptroller shall establish a digital currency that is backed by gold so that each unit of the digital currency issued represents a particular fraction of a troy ounce of gold held in trust,” the bills state, adding that if needed, a private vendor can be enlisted to help establish the digital currency.
The comptroller would also be required to create a mechanism that would allow the new gold-backed digital currency to be used by citizens for their daily transactions. “In establishing the digital currency the comptroller shall establish a means to ensure that a person who holds the digital currency may readily transfer or assign the digital currency to any other person by electronic means.”

All gold reserves backing the digital currency would be held in a trust with the Texas Bullion Depository that is controlled by the comptroller or another entity appointed by the comptroller. “The trustee shall maintain enough gold to provide for the redemption in gold of all units of the digital currency that have been issued and are not yet redeemed for money or gold,” the bills read.”

 
Chuck again… Well, at least that’s a digital currency that would be worth something, and have something behind it besides mystery! 
 
Market Prices 4/10/2023:  American Style: A$ .6623, kiwi .6200, C$ .7329, euro 1.0848, sterling 1.2360, Swiss $1.0986, European Style: rand 18.4912, krone 10.5404, SEK 10.5275, forint 345.29, zloty 4.3216, koruna 21.5223, RUB 81.77, yen  133.37, sing 1.3329, HKD 7.8500, INR 81.98, China 6.8316, peso 18.23, BRL 5.0879, 
BBDXY 1,232.64, Dollar Index 102.64, Oil $80.24, 10-year 3.38%, Silver $24.91, Platinum $1,006.00, 
Palladium $1,526.00, Copper $4.00, and Gold… $1,990.90
 
That’s it for today… How was your Easter? I hope it was blessed, and full of love of family… Little Evie had the quote of the day… I asked her if she liked my Easter shirt (Easter lillies), and she said, “That’s not an Easter shirt, it doens’t have any bunnies on it!” I then started to explain to her that Easter isn’t about bunnies, but he’s only 3 and I thought this is wasted breath… This week should be very nice here in the Midwest, so I’m all in for that!  Dire Straits take us to the finish line today with their great song: Brothers In Arms…  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and will try to  Be Good To Yourself!
 
Chuck Butler